Latest / Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast / Inside The Data: More Data On Eagles Rushing Offense, Defense
Transcript
- 0:09Speaker 1: Hello, welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
- 0:12Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher and of course I'm joined by our
- 0:15Speaker 1: data and analytics expert Sam Finkel. And Sam, forget all
- 0:19Speaker 1: the data, forget the analytics, I've already got a numerical
- 0:22Speaker 1: trend going on. So this is the second time this
- 0:25Speaker 1: year we're doing a show where we're trying to uh
- 0:28Speaker 1: because of the way the schedule was Sam wwich two
- 0:30Speaker 1: games into one show. The last time was the Broncos
- 0:34Speaker 1: Giants because of the short turnaround. This one is obviously
- 0:38Speaker 1: Cowboys Bears, the Black Friday turnaround. Notice a trend.
- 0:42Speaker 2: Yeah, you don't want us to do a double episode
- 0:44Speaker 2: ever again this season?
- 0:45Speaker 1: Ever?
- 0:46Speaker 2: Yeah?
- 0:46Speaker 1: Right? Yeah? I mean the Eagles only have four losses.
- 0:49Speaker 1: They have two two game losing streaks, and both times
- 0:52Speaker 1: we do this show on a two game losing streak.
- 0:55Speaker 1: But that's what we gotta do. We gotta go inside
- 0:58Speaker 1: the numbers against the the you know, a bad loss
- 1:01Speaker 1: against Dallas. They were up twenty one nothing in that game.
- 1:04Speaker 1: I picked the Cowboys to win. I got a lot of,
- 1:08Speaker 1: as I usually do, blowback from the fans, and I
- 1:10Speaker 1: gotta say I was writing up a bunch of Mia
- 1:12Speaker 1: colpas at twenty one nothing saying what was I thinking?
- 1:16Speaker 1: I said, have known better, And then by the end
- 1:18Speaker 1: of the game, I was like, imagine that.
- 1:22Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I basically what you're saying is our fault?
- 1:26Speaker 1: Yes, yes, but I did pick the Eagles to beat
- 1:28Speaker 1: the Bears, and I guess the is on me on
- 1:32Speaker 1: that case. So but they lost both games. Before we
- 1:36Speaker 1: get into the data, just while you were putting the numbers,
- 1:39Speaker 1: I like to to talk about what we aimed to
- 1:42Speaker 1: find out in each of these episodes. And I know that,
- 1:45Speaker 1: you know, we can be formulate what we go through,
- 1:47Speaker 1: but we also add some stuff. What are some of
- 1:50Speaker 1: the things we're gonna discover in this podcast that maybe
- 1:53Speaker 1: we haven't touched on before.
- 1:55Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know we've talked about it before, but
- 2:00Speaker 2: this time we really we're looking at the penalties that
- 2:05Speaker 2: is a huge part of this episode. And then we're
- 2:08Speaker 2: going to look at the run game that's on both
- 2:11Speaker 2: sides of the ball. But that's those are the two
- 2:13Speaker 2: main new things that we're going to kind of take
- 2:16Speaker 2: a look at this episode.
- 2:17Speaker 1: You know, people ask me all the time, why aren't
- 2:19Speaker 1: the Eagles more running, more tempo? Why don't they, you know,
- 2:23Speaker 1: go no huddle like they always used to do and
- 2:25Speaker 1: do well. And I say they have when they can.
- 2:28Speaker 1: But when you're constantly getting a first and ten false
- 2:32Speaker 1: start or a second and five false start to make
- 2:34Speaker 1: it second and ten or a holding, the penalties have
- 2:37Speaker 1: really put them behind it. It's hard to get your
- 2:40Speaker 1: tempo going when you're constantly be set by penalties. So
- 2:44Speaker 1: I'm glad you took the time to really research that
- 2:47Speaker 1: and go into it. But let's not waste any time,
- 2:51Speaker 1: and we'll get right into some of the data that
- 2:54Speaker 1: we always do go through, and that'll start off. Of course,
- 2:57Speaker 1: we're gonna go with the Cowboys game first. The basic data.
- 3:01Speaker 1: I see a lot of green on the Cowboys side here.
- 3:03Speaker 2: Sam that that would explain the game pretty well.
- 3:07Speaker 1: Unfortunately, Well, I thought the interesting thing from what you
- 3:11Speaker 1: put together here is time and possession, negligible turnovers, the
- 3:15Speaker 1: same two and two average starting fuel position, No big difference.
- 3:20Speaker 1: I mean, the biggest thing to me that jumps out
- 3:22Speaker 1: is yards per play and pass. I mean I expect
- 3:25Speaker 1: the yards per pass with the Cowboys to be pretty good,
- 3:27Speaker 1: even though the Eagles were playing good defense at the time.
- 3:30Speaker 1: But yards per play is pretty high there.
- 3:33Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it is. It's unfortunate. There's not much to
- 3:38Speaker 2: say except for that the stats back up exactly what
- 3:41Speaker 2: everyone was feeling and what we saw on the television.
- 3:44Speaker 1: So yeah, it's crazy. I mean they went because they
- 3:47Speaker 1: scored the twenty one points. I think the third touchdown
- 3:52Speaker 1: came early in the second quarter. From that point on,
- 3:54Speaker 1: the offense just completely hit the tank. And then you
- 3:57Speaker 1: go to the Bears game and we'll go to go
- 4:00Speaker 1: out the basic stats with that, and they didn't score,
- 4:03Speaker 1: you know, until when was that touchdown to I think
- 4:06Speaker 1: it was I don't know. They ran something like seventeen
- 4:08Speaker 1: plays in the first half. It was crazy. I mean
- 4:10Speaker 1: they went a long time between scoring touchdowns between the
- 4:15Speaker 1: Cowboys and the and the Bears game.
- 4:18Speaker 2: Yeah, it was not great. I look that the numbers
- 4:23Speaker 2: kind of show that. What was interesting with the Bears
- 4:27Speaker 2: one is that yards per play and yards for pass
- 4:29Speaker 2: is actually better. Yeah, and this is I think one
- 4:33Speaker 2: of the first times this season.
- 4:35Speaker 1: The Eagles are better. By the way, for what is
- 4:37Speaker 1: what you're pointing out for those listings the truck, the
- 4:39Speaker 1: Eagles had a higher yards per play and significantly higher
- 4:43Speaker 1: yards per pass than the Bears in that game.
- 4:46Speaker 2: But the Bears were just having their way running the ball.
- 4:49Speaker 2: So I'm not sure that means that much, at least
- 4:53Speaker 2: in this particular context. I don't know if it means
- 4:56Speaker 2: as much as as we're kind of being hopeful on.
- 4:58Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, look, I think the biggest thing
- 5:01Speaker 1: from basic data is just take a look at the
- 5:02Speaker 1: time and possession. Right, it's almost two to one. That's
- 5:06Speaker 1: this is what the Eagles used to do to other.
- 5:09Speaker 1: The way the Bears won this game is sort of
- 5:13Speaker 1: how the Eagles have been defined right the last few years.
- 5:17Speaker 1: They're gonna run, They're gonna get explosive runs, they put
- 5:19Speaker 1: the ball in the air, occasionally get a big play
- 5:22Speaker 1: like they got that play to Comet, Right, that was
- 5:25Speaker 1: like watching the Eagles beat up the Bears instead of
- 5:28Speaker 1: vice versa.
- 5:29Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean listen, earlier this season we had a
- 5:33Speaker 2: whole discussion where the Eagles want to hold the ball,
- 5:37Speaker 2: they want to limit possessions, and they want to be
- 5:39Speaker 2: efficient on those possessions. Yep, And there's been this trend
- 5:43Speaker 2: this season where that completely flipped on its head. The
- 5:46Speaker 2: Eagles have not been able to hold the ball. They
- 5:49Speaker 2: have not been efficient on their drives. I mean, any
- 5:52Speaker 2: you know, it doesn't take someone who is an expert
- 5:55Speaker 2: in this field to see that. I mean, they have
- 5:57Speaker 2: been inefficient. They haven't hold the ball long enough. They
- 6:01Speaker 2: have not had the identity of the Eagles football we've
- 6:04Speaker 2: been used to these past couple of years.
- 6:06Speaker 1: It's funny how things can change from week to week, Sam,
- 6:09Speaker 1: And like you can, you can either what sort of
- 6:13Speaker 1: improve or regress in certain areas. Right the Bears, I
- 6:16Speaker 1: don't know if you put this together. If you did,
- 6:18Speaker 1: we'll wind up repeating it. But the Bears played mostly
- 6:21Speaker 1: man coverage and they blitzed a lot. And I don't
- 6:24Speaker 1: know if you remember we were talking in Week three
- 6:25Speaker 1: or Week four Broncos Bucks game Rams. They were all
- 6:30Speaker 1: trying to blitz the Eagles early and getting crushed. I mean,
- 6:33Speaker 1: there was nobody better against the blitz and man coverage
- 6:36Speaker 1: for the first five or six weeks of the season
- 6:38Speaker 1: than Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. You wouldn't have dared
- 6:41Speaker 1: do what the Bears did on Friday to the Eagles
- 6:44Speaker 1: if this was September or early October. And those teams
- 6:48Speaker 1: that we mentioned, the Rams, the Bucks, the Broncos what
- 6:50Speaker 1: they wound up doing in the second half, and we
- 6:52Speaker 1: thought intentionally maybe was completely changing stop blitzing, show blitz drop,
- 6:57Speaker 1: show blitz drop, so that you're trying to like confuse
- 6:59Speaker 1: the defense, right to confuse the Eagles offense. And it
- 7:02Speaker 1: worked for them. But the Bears, like they didn't have
- 7:05Speaker 1: to change anything. They just played a lot of man
- 7:07Speaker 1: coverage and blitzed.
- 7:08Speaker 2: Yeah, that's kind of crazy, kind of crazy.
- 7:11Speaker 1: So there is one stat here for the Eagles that
- 7:14Speaker 1: they did not win, but I thought was encouraging. Can
- 7:18Speaker 1: you and you know you smell what I'm cooking a little.
- 7:22Speaker 2: Bit in the basic statistics?
- 7:24Speaker 1: Yes, oh goodness, hmmm, mildly encouraging, I'll say.
- 7:32Speaker 2: It's Is it one of the the yards per pass?
- 7:35Speaker 2: Is that what you're talking about?
- 7:36Speaker 1: Uh? No, only because the I think they're typically high
- 7:39Speaker 1: on that. Oh you know what it is.
- 7:40Speaker 2: It's the yards per.
- 7:41Speaker 1: Rush exactly exactly five point one yards per rush. Is
- 7:45Speaker 1: wouldn't you say, mildly encouraging for this team?
- 7:48Speaker 2: It's mildly encouraging for this for sure.
- 7:52Speaker 1: I couldn't. I couldn't get you excited. I got you
- 7:54Speaker 1: mildly encouraged.
- 7:56Speaker 2: Mildly encouraged for sure.
- 7:58Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look because we're contract actually
- 8:00Speaker 1: obligated at third down stats for the Philadelphia Eagles.
- 8:05Speaker 2: Honestly, we can just blow through this too.
- 8:09Speaker 1: It's love it today. You are salty, listen.
- 8:13Speaker 2: It's it is what it is they're at. You know,
- 8:16Speaker 2: the Cowboys and Eagles matched it at five and twelve
- 8:20Speaker 2: I for twelve, sorry, forty one percent, and then the
- 8:24Speaker 2: Bears blew them out of the water. They were a third.
- 8:26Speaker 2: Eagles were a third of theirs, four for twelve, and
- 8:29Speaker 2: then the Chicago Bears were ten for seventeen at almost
- 8:32Speaker 2: sixty percent, almost doubling them again the trend of the season.
- 8:36Speaker 2: It's it is what it is that we've beaten this
- 8:38Speaker 2: horse to death. Let's just let's move on to the
- 8:40Speaker 2: next thing.
- 8:41Speaker 1: Yes, sure, yes, sir no, But that is interesting to
- 8:43Speaker 1: point out that the Bears were so close to sixty
- 8:46Speaker 1: percent third down and the Eagles were at thirty third.
- 8:49Speaker 1: The Eagles are now I think twenty eighth in the
- 8:52Speaker 1: NFL at third down efficiency, which is just horrific. It's
- 8:57Speaker 1: what as you have it. They are thirty four and
- 8:59Speaker 1: a half percent. Last year. There are forty one point
- 9:01Speaker 1: seven percent, So that's a good it's good what eight
- 9:04Speaker 1: eight percentage points lower than they were last year, That's exactly.
- 9:07Speaker 2: It's it's there you go.
- 9:10Speaker 1: And meanwhile, their opponents are now up to forty three percent,
- 9:13Speaker 1: So now their opponents are up converting eight percent higher
- 9:17Speaker 1: rate than they were last year. So not a good
- 9:20Speaker 1: you know, offense or defense for them. Uh And then
- 9:25Speaker 1: just for you know those watching you, did you do
- 9:28Speaker 1: the work? Sam? So I want to present it here.
- 9:30Speaker 1: The situational third down stat's third and short, third and medium,
- 9:33Speaker 1: third and long continue to be horrific for the Philadelphia Eagles.
- 9:38Speaker 1: And by the way, so this is oh man, I'm
- 9:40Speaker 1: so glad you're you're gonna hate this because it's you're
- 9:43Speaker 1: trying to move past it. But we were having a
- 9:46Speaker 1: discussion about Kevin Patulo and play calling, right and the
- 9:49Speaker 1: third and eight play. Okay, I keep saying to people,
- 9:55Speaker 1: I'm not trying to absolve Kevin Patulo at all, like
- 9:57Speaker 1: he has his hand in it. Two. But you know,
- 10:00Speaker 1: third and eight against the Bears, and they scheme up
- 10:03Speaker 1: a play where Davante Smith is wide open and Jalen
- 10:07Speaker 1: Hurts has taken accountability for it. No need to beat
- 10:10Speaker 1: him up for it. But he missed the throw. He
- 10:11Speaker 1: just missed the throw. But the point is that I
- 10:15Speaker 1: was making When people criticize the play calling or the
- 10:18Speaker 1: play design, I always say, third and eight is a
- 10:21Speaker 1: very very difficult conversion rate in the NFL, and the Eagles,
- 10:25Speaker 1: as you've presented here, are only converting third and seven
- 10:29Speaker 1: or long er. Clip Okay, So third and eight is
- 10:35Speaker 1: a tough down. That's really a very favorable down for
- 10:37Speaker 1: the defense. DeVante Smith was wide open. So you can't
- 10:41Speaker 1: blame Kevin Patullo for that there. And we've seen this
- 10:44Speaker 1: throughout the year, just wide open, guys, they're.
- 10:47Speaker 2: Not seen not it was the year. But you know,
- 10:50Speaker 2: blame him for what's that? The fact that they got
- 10:52Speaker 2: even into third and eight. That and that's what's been
- 10:57Speaker 2: happening all year now, Changing the play caller, change that
- 11:02Speaker 2: at this point of the season, I don't know, but
- 11:06Speaker 2: it's not our decision.
- 11:07Speaker 1: It's not And you know it's the same menu. I
- 11:11Speaker 1: like it to this. If you and I went to
- 11:12Speaker 1: the same restaurant for a couple of months, right and
- 11:15Speaker 1: you liked it, but I didn't. I no matter what
- 11:17Speaker 1: I ordered, I couldn't get satisfied. And I said to you, Sam,
- 11:22Speaker 1: you picked something for me to eat that, and maybe
- 11:25Speaker 1: you'll pick the one thing or two things that I
- 11:27Speaker 1: didn't think of, right that I'm gonna enjoy. But it's
- 11:31Speaker 1: still from the same menu, right, So you if you
- 11:34Speaker 1: switch play callers, it's not like all of a sudden
- 11:36Speaker 1: you're getting a Shanahan style offense or anything. Right, you
- 11:39Speaker 1: get in the same offense. But maybe there is something
- 11:41Speaker 1: to be said for just having a better feel for
- 11:44Speaker 1: when to call those plays.
- 11:45Speaker 2: Right, knowing which ingredients to use when. Yes, yeah, we're
- 11:50Speaker 2: sticking with that analogy. That's that's all I say.
- 11:53Speaker 1: All right, I'm glad you like that.
- 11:55Speaker 2: It's good.
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- 14:38Speaker 1: down because I can tell you just want to get away.
- 14:40Speaker 1: I just love that.
- 14:42Speaker 2: What else are we going to get from that?
- 14:43Speaker 1: It's right, it's a broken record. It's a broken record.
- 14:46Speaker 2: I want to be able to talk about third down
- 14:48Speaker 2: once we improve it. I don't want to necessarily take
- 14:51Speaker 2: it out because I've already built the framework for it.
- 14:54Speaker 2: But at the same time, it's just it's the same
- 14:58Speaker 2: old story.
- 14:59Speaker 1: Yeah, we're not delivering anything new to the audience by
- 15:02Speaker 1: talking about all their difficulties on third down. I agree,
- 15:05Speaker 1: I agree with you, but something is new, right, And
- 15:08Speaker 1: what you've worked hard on here is the penalties count
- 15:11Speaker 1: for the Eagles in twenty twenty five, which we've talked
- 15:14Speaker 1: about in spurts right, but not really put together the
- 15:18Speaker 1: way you did here with data using NFL penalties dot Com.
- 15:23Speaker 1: So tell me explain the chart. What have you found?
- 15:26Speaker 1: What do you think it means? All right?
- 15:27Speaker 2: First off, let me caveat saying a couple things. Number One,
- 15:31Speaker 2: this data was entered before the Patriots Giants game, so
- 15:36Speaker 2: that that will not be reflected in these statistics.
- 15:40Speaker 1: So I can't imagine one game out of every single
- 15:42Speaker 1: NFL game that's been played this year is going to
- 15:44Speaker 1: really impact this data.
- 15:46Speaker 2: I don't think so either, but I want to be
- 15:48Speaker 2: very clear on that because we're always clear when there
- 15:52Speaker 2: are constraints. And then let's talk about what this data
- 15:58Speaker 2: actually says. So first off, it'll it'll evaluate the plays,
- 16:03Speaker 2: the penalties against, how many there are, how how much
- 16:07Speaker 2: yards they cost, how many the team has been benefited by,
- 16:12Speaker 2: how many penalties you know, against their opponents, how many
- 16:16Speaker 2: yards that is the net between the two, So just
- 16:18Speaker 2: subtracting against them before I mean against the ones they
- 16:23Speaker 2: benefit from, and then how many yards net that has created,
- 16:28Speaker 2: and then you know how many have been pre snap
- 16:32Speaker 2: and then the total flags that and that would include
- 16:34Speaker 2: declined and offsetting penalties. And I just I think the
- 16:41Speaker 2: data is going to be obvious. It we're seeing what
- 16:45Speaker 2: it's great when that happens, right obviously not in this context,
- 16:49Speaker 2: not what it's a negative statistic for the team. But look,
- 16:55Speaker 2: they there have been some very uncharacteristic penalties of the
- 17:00Speaker 2: Eagles this season, in the past five years at least
- 17:03Speaker 2: under the Sirianni regime, and that's what we're going to
- 17:07Speaker 2: look at the Sirianni regime. But at the same time,
- 17:13Speaker 2: you know, are these excuses, No, I don't think they
- 17:17Speaker 2: should be have the penalty has has the actual flags
- 17:21Speaker 2: been justified all the time? You know that's never going
- 17:24Speaker 2: to always happen. But we're not putting on our conspiratorial hats.
- 17:28Speaker 2: There is one statistic that when we do get to
- 17:32Speaker 2: I will put my conspiratorial hat on, but that in
- 17:36Speaker 2: the most for the most of this, we're going to
- 17:38Speaker 2: be objective. I will tell you when I'm going to
- 17:40Speaker 2: put my conspiratorial hat on. And to the same degree,
- 17:46Speaker 2: penalties are in nature there, they're part of the game.
- 17:48Speaker 2: Is it's it's part of the nature of football. They happen,
- 17:52Speaker 2: and you're never going to get all the calls that
- 17:55Speaker 2: should be called, and some calls you're going to get
- 17:57Speaker 2: are not going to be great calls, and and that's
- 17:59Speaker 2: just part of it. And really what you hope is
- 18:02Speaker 2: that it will happen on both sides of the ball
- 18:04Speaker 2: and it'll even out essentially as you go on throughout
- 18:08Speaker 2: a season. What is interesting is it really hasn't. And
- 18:14Speaker 2: and what you can think of is anytime you know
- 18:17Speaker 2: these net yards are over one hundred yards, it basically
- 18:23Speaker 2: means that penalties have given up a score, or if
- 18:25Speaker 2: it's one hundred yards in the other direction, they've basically
- 18:28Speaker 2: given a score, right, and one hundreds of rough number
- 18:32Speaker 2: because obviously we're starting the teams are starting on the
- 18:37Speaker 2: twenty five or even the thirty five like that. There,
- 18:39Speaker 2: it's obviously less than that. But I think a good
- 18:41Speaker 2: rough estimate is like every you could we could even
- 18:45Speaker 2: be safe and call it every like seventy yards is
- 18:49Speaker 2: a score that basically given up by penalties either way.
- 18:52Speaker 2: Keep that context in mind, and let's go through these numbers. Okay,
- 18:56Speaker 2: So the Eagles have ran one undred and eleven plays,
- 19:01Speaker 2: which is seventeenth in the NFL. So what that means
- 19:05Speaker 2: is typically and that these these plays, but as they
- 19:09Speaker 2: go up, you would expect the penalties to go up
- 19:12Speaker 2: to So if the penalties are high with the seventeenth rank,
- 19:16Speaker 2: that's really bad. Just to be really clear, and you're
- 19:19Speaker 2: going to see that kind of is the case.
- 19:22Speaker 1: Right, You would expect the top five, you know, play
- 19:25Speaker 1: team to be top five penalties because they're running more plays.
- 19:29Speaker 1: That makes sense.
- 19:30Speaker 2: Yes, So against they've had ninety one against, which is
- 19:38Speaker 2: fifth in the NFL at fifth most for seven hundred
- 19:42Speaker 2: and sixty five yards. And again, this ninety one is
- 19:46Speaker 2: not counting the decline in offsetting penalties, because that's one
- 19:48Speaker 2: hundred and four of them, right, which is twenty fifth.
- 19:53Speaker 1: So so what you're saying is the team that has
- 19:55Speaker 1: run the seventeenth most plays, which is middle of the
- 19:58Speaker 1: pack basically for the NFL, is being penalized at a
- 20:01Speaker 1: top five, right. I mean they've got they've got the
- 20:04Speaker 1: fifth most penalties against and yep, take count. And but
- 20:08Speaker 1: this is not your conspiratorial hat, right yet?
- 20:10Speaker 2: No, not yet, not yet, not yet.
- 20:12Speaker 1: Because I mean I think we can with our eyes.
- 20:14Speaker 1: We've seen a ton of false starts that are fair
- 20:17Speaker 1: and you know, like pre snap penalties and things like that.
- 20:20Speaker 1: So yeah, motions and shifts go ahead.
- 20:24Speaker 2: And that that total is I have the kind of
- 20:27Speaker 2: confusingly backwards, but basically they're total flags. That twenty fifth
- 20:32Speaker 2: is also really bad because it's it's framed the other way.
- 20:37Speaker 2: They're twenty fifth like worse worse, right, Yeah, so it
- 20:41Speaker 2: probably should be consistent.
- 20:43Speaker 1: Both, but just that's fun. No, as long as you're
- 20:45Speaker 1: clear on that.
- 20:45Speaker 2: Yeah, And then so let's look at how many calls
- 20:49Speaker 2: they've been benefited with. That's been sixty eight for six
- 20:53Speaker 2: hundred yards, which is twenty ninth and twenty fifth. Again,
- 20:56Speaker 2: that's bad. That's that's right. They have which you look
- 20:59Speaker 2: at the net and it really tells the story. They've
- 21:02Speaker 2: they're minus twenty three on penalties called, which is thirty first.
- 21:07Speaker 2: It's it's second worst in the league. For minus one
- 21:11Speaker 2: hundred and sixty five yards, which is thirtieth in the league,
- 21:14Speaker 2: which is third worst in the league. Right, so, and
- 21:18Speaker 2: and again whichever youuristic we're using, that's points that are
- 21:22Speaker 2: being given up on the season by these penalty yards
- 21:27Speaker 2: because they're there's that much of a deficit between them. Right,
- 21:33Speaker 2: Do you have any comment on that before I go
- 21:35Speaker 2: to the next part of it.
- 21:36Speaker 1: No, I want to go to the next part of
- 21:38Speaker 1: it before I couch it all because I think the
- 21:40Speaker 1: next part of it is important. So go ahead.
- 21:43Speaker 2: Yeah, So let's let's look at.
- 21:45Speaker 1: What make sure I understand it correctly. The pre snap
- 21:47Speaker 1: count you have is thirty five, which rank This is bad. Again,
- 21:51Speaker 1: like meaning when you say they ranked twenty six, that
- 21:53Speaker 1: means they have like the sixth most pre snap count
- 21:57Speaker 1: penalties in the NFL. Yes, sir, okay, so I consider
- 22:02Speaker 1: I don't know how you feel about this. I consider
- 22:05Speaker 1: pre snap penalties to be the least subjective. It means
- 22:10Speaker 1: somebody moved right, or somebody lined up incorrectly, or there
- 22:13Speaker 1: was a motion penalty or a shift. This is not
- 22:16Speaker 1: like one of those debatable pass interference and it's usually
- 22:20Speaker 1: you're a culprit and everybody knows it. Yeah.
- 22:24Speaker 2: And as a third of their penalties have been that right.
- 22:27Speaker 1: So that right there tells me that and then we'll
- 22:32Speaker 1: get to your percentage hike over the few years. But
- 22:35Speaker 1: you know that's that's a bad, an objectively bad statistic
- 22:40Speaker 1: for the Eagles.
- 22:41Speaker 2: Yes, I agreed. I mean that that is discipline, that's operational,
- 22:46Speaker 2: that that those that that some of it is like
- 22:49Speaker 2: is a little bit coaching, but it's also a lot
- 22:52Speaker 2: on the players. It's it's a tough one.
- 22:54Speaker 1: God, I didn't realize. I think this is fascinating. I
- 22:59Speaker 1: did not realize that they had that many pre snap
- 23:03Speaker 1: like a third basically, as you said, of their penalties
- 23:05Speaker 1: or pre snap yep.
- 23:07Speaker 2: Not great, Nope, but let's look at how that compares.
- 23:10Speaker 2: So we're looking at the total flags divided by total plays.
- 23:16Speaker 2: And if we start in Siriannes regime towenty twenty one, yep,
- 23:20Speaker 2: they had one hundred and twenty one total flags in
- 23:23Speaker 2: the entire season.
- 23:24Speaker 1: Oh my god, Well they're only sixteen away from that
- 23:28Speaker 1: or seventeen away with god five games left or something.
- 23:31Speaker 2: It gets worse because if you look at the twenty
- 23:34Speaker 2: twenty three season, which again had that collapse one hundred
- 23:36Speaker 2: and thirteen on the season, it's crazy. Yeah, I mean, look,
- 23:42Speaker 2: you can see that relative to the plays, I mean,
- 23:44Speaker 2: the plays are almost double or close to double, not
- 23:49Speaker 2: exactly double, but you know they're significantly more plays because
- 23:52Speaker 2: there were significantly more games. And yet the penalties are
- 23:54Speaker 2: almost the same every season except for that last year
- 23:57Speaker 2: they were penalized closer to the rate because it looked
- 24:01Speaker 2: if you look at the rates of it, you know,
- 24:02Speaker 2: they are four point four percent of their plays were
- 24:04Speaker 2: penalties in twenty twenty one, three point nine which was
- 24:07Speaker 2: the best under Sirianni in twenty twinty two, four percent
- 24:10Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three, and four point seven percent twenty
- 24:13Speaker 2: twenty four and five point seven percent of their places
- 24:16Speaker 2: have been penalties this year.
- 24:18Speaker 1: That's that's really fascinating. I mean, the more successful they've been,
- 24:22Speaker 1: the more penalized they've been, which is kind of crazy. Well,
- 24:25Speaker 1: I mean, we'll see how this year ends, but I mean, obviously,
- 24:28Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, you make it to the super Bowl.
- 24:31Speaker 1: Four percent. Oh no, no, you have the slide. I'm sorry.
- 24:33Speaker 1: This is the year after the year you made it.
- 24:35Speaker 1: You were great the year after you had your slide,
- 24:38Speaker 1: and you were basically the same three point nine four
- 24:40Speaker 1: four Oh, that's right around the same, and then last
- 24:42Speaker 1: year down twenty four, you're up to four point seven percent.
- 24:45Speaker 1: It didn't feel like it didn't feel noticed noticeable to
- 24:49Speaker 1: me last year that they were getting penalized at a
- 24:52Speaker 1: significantly higher rate than the year before. This year, it
- 24:56Speaker 1: really jumps out because it's you're talking about a jump
- 24:59Speaker 1: from four point seven to five point seven. For whatever reason,
- 25:03Speaker 1: the jump from four point zero twenty twenty three to
- 25:06Speaker 1: four point seven percent last year did not just like,
- 25:09Speaker 1: it wasn't jarring to me.
- 25:11Speaker 2: Well, okay, it may be too early to put the
- 25:14Speaker 2: conspiratorial head on because I want to wait for the
- 25:15Speaker 2: next thing. Okay, but just put a pin in that.
- 25:19Speaker 1: In mind, Okay, that want to move on? Then to
- 25:22Speaker 1: the next chart. Yes, okay, these are Eagles per game
- 25:28Speaker 1: penalty statistics.
- 25:30Speaker 2: Yeah, so, I mean, look, the story is the same.
- 25:33Speaker 2: It's it's what you see. What's interesting is under the
- 25:36Speaker 2: Sirianni regime they have been hurt by penalties more on
- 25:42Speaker 2: average than any like basically than any other year besides
- 25:46Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, then they were actually better with penalties.
- 25:50Speaker 2: Their net yards per game was six point four and
- 25:55Speaker 2: this year, I mean, like every year, it was pretty negligible.
- 25:58Speaker 2: I mean they were losing the penalty battle by minus
- 26:01Speaker 2: one point six yards per game in twenty one, minus
- 26:03Speaker 2: zero point two which is nothing in twenty twenty three,
- 26:06Speaker 2: and minus one point four in twenty twenty four. But
- 26:09Speaker 2: in this in this game, it's minus thirteen point eight
- 26:12Speaker 2: in this season.
- 26:13Speaker 1: Yes, which really jumps out. That is huge.
- 26:16Speaker 2: Thirteen point eight yards. It can change the entire game,
- 26:19Speaker 2: especially starting where they are in the field is like
- 26:22Speaker 2: where where they can move the kickoff and all that stuff,
- 26:26Speaker 2: basically averaging a first down plus per game. Losing it's
- 26:33Speaker 2: just it's it's not good.
- 26:35Speaker 1: It's four yards a game in penalties. A game is
- 26:38Speaker 1: a lot, my friend. That's no matter how you tice it,
- 26:41Speaker 1: But I think it's pretty interesting that even though they
- 26:44Speaker 1: are losing by the wider margin in the beneficiary versus
- 26:48Speaker 1: yards against right at minus thirteen point eight, which is
- 26:52Speaker 1: destroys everything else, the fifty against the fifty yards that
- 26:57Speaker 1: they're benefiting per game is also higher than it's ever been. Right.
- 27:02Speaker 1: It just shows that there's just a lot more flags
- 27:03Speaker 1: in general.
- 27:05Speaker 2: And ding, ding ding, you've tied me up a conspiratorial
- 27:09Speaker 2: hat on something that big NFL doesn't want you to know.
- 27:12Speaker 2: Oh oh, and here's what it is. They are calling
- 27:16Speaker 2: penalties at an alarmingly high rate in the past two seasons,
- 27:21Speaker 2: significantly more than they had in the past five years.
- 27:26Speaker 2: And that's where this five year data comes from. I mean, like,
- 27:29Speaker 2: let's look at it objectively. First. Okay, twenty twenty one.
- 27:33Speaker 2: You know, the plays have been relatively similar. I mean,
- 27:37Speaker 2: it's not crazy different, But there were eight point nine
- 27:40Speaker 2: percent of penalties in twenty twenty one.
- 27:42Speaker 1: This is of all plays in the NFL, eight point
- 27:45Speaker 1: nine percent were penalized.
- 27:46Speaker 2: Okay, eight point five and twenty twenty two, it's a
- 27:49Speaker 2: little bit of a drop eight point seven and twenty
- 27:51Speaker 2: twenty three.
- 27:53Speaker 1: Back up to close to where it was in twenty.
- 27:54Speaker 2: One nine point nine.
- 27:56Speaker 1: In twenty now we got a hike and the ten
- 28:00Speaker 1: point six three. Right, So so as my first reaction was, well, no,
- 28:06Speaker 1: you know, this is not an NFL. This is an
- 28:07Speaker 1: Eagles because they're committing far more pre snap penalties than
- 28:11Speaker 1: they ever have and those are not objective penalties. Those
- 28:14Speaker 1: I mean, those are a but those are not subjective there,
- 28:17Speaker 1: they're fact penalties. But your data here is showing that
- 28:20Speaker 1: flags in general for all NFL teams are up significantly
- 28:23Speaker 1: the last two years.
- 28:25Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's that's what what made me even look
- 28:28Speaker 2: into this is what you just talk about, how they
- 28:31Speaker 2: have the worst against that they had in the five
- 28:34Speaker 2: year span, but they also had the most benefited. I
- 28:37Speaker 2: was like, that doesn't that doesn't make sense. So I
- 28:38Speaker 2: looked at it, and that's what it showed it the
- 28:41Speaker 2: penalties have gone up in the past two years. Now,
- 28:45Speaker 2: my conspiratory hat is to that extent, I'm not gonna
- 28:48Speaker 2: you know, we're not We're not going to speculate as
- 28:50Speaker 2: to why that is.
- 28:51Speaker 1: Right.
- 28:51Speaker 2: The league obviously has emphasis on certain things and they
- 28:55Speaker 2: have done, you know, in the past reason in the
- 28:57Speaker 2: past couple of years, there there's been certain play is
- 29:00Speaker 2: that they look at, you know, more significantly, they've made
- 29:03Speaker 2: more I mean the hip drot tackle, right, they made
- 29:06Speaker 2: that illegal. There's certain things that they've added in the
- 29:08Speaker 2: past five years that would probably lead to more penalties.
- 29:12Speaker 2: But it is a significant difference in these last two
- 29:16Speaker 2: seasons compared to the three prior, and it really is now.
- 29:21Speaker 1: Then the only thing I would wonder is the NFL
- 29:24Speaker 1: can't like penalty I mean, penalties are disruptive to games,
- 29:28Speaker 1: they're boring, people complain about them. But you're making the
- 29:31Speaker 1: point you made on they have cracked down on certain areas,
- 29:35Speaker 1: you know. I do wonder if the emphasis on taunting
- 29:38Speaker 1: this year, which is which drew a ton of flags
- 29:40Speaker 1: for the first five to six weeks, right, has been
- 29:44Speaker 1: a part of that hike. I'm trying to think if
- 29:47Speaker 1: there's anything other crackdowns that you've seen more penalties this year.
- 29:51Speaker 1: Probably not that I can remember, but certainly, certainly taunting
- 29:55Speaker 1: might be a reason for from going from nine point
- 29:58Speaker 1: nine to ten point six. But why to go from
- 30:00Speaker 1: eight point seven two years to nine point nine last
- 30:03Speaker 1: year is a very good question. Yeah, interesting, all right,
- 30:09Speaker 1: But by the way, if we are maybe we'll do
- 30:10Speaker 1: this in the off season and take a bigger look
- 30:12Speaker 1: at it. Maybe we'll look at which penalties were saw
- 30:18Speaker 1: the biggest, like what like holding past interference illegal mode,
- 30:22Speaker 1: which which individual penalties If we were able to get
- 30:26Speaker 1: that data saw the highest increase in being called, yeah,
- 30:31Speaker 1: that might help us explain, you know, figure it out.
- 30:33Speaker 2: You know, yeah, we were on the case NFL.
- 30:35Speaker 1: There you go, we got you. Uh, I guess we're
- 30:39Speaker 1: contractually obligated to talk about the Eagles offense right uh
- 30:42Speaker 1: here in there after gets yes, Sam, we have to
- 30:47Speaker 1: a lot of red on this chart here. Now you
- 30:49Speaker 1: put the advanced data of the offense against both the
- 30:52Speaker 1: Cowboys and the Bears side by side, and then compared
- 30:55Speaker 1: it to what they did in the season. Very interesting
- 30:58Speaker 1: how they're all against Dallas. I don't know what this says.
- 31:04Speaker 1: Because their EPA per play, pass and rush we're all
- 31:06Speaker 1: better than their season average. But a lot of that
- 31:08Speaker 1: is because their season average sucks. So it's not like
- 31:12Speaker 1: I look at their EPA per play a plus point
- 31:15Speaker 1: oh two is something that's amazing, but it is far
- 31:18Speaker 1: better than their season average of minus point zero two.
- 31:23Speaker 2: Which I mean, listen, it was positive for a lot
- 31:26Speaker 2: of this year. It was positive. I don't even know
- 31:29Speaker 2: it was positive.
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- 33:41Speaker 1: Slash Legal Slash Podcasts for full disclosures. The minus point
- 33:45Speaker 1: oh five against Dallas and EPA per rush, which is
- 33:48Speaker 1: slightly better than their season average a minus point oh six. Yikes.
- 33:53Speaker 1: But then the Bears, you know, I thought it was encouraging.
- 33:56Speaker 1: I thought maybe they encouraging numbers because they were at
- 33:59Speaker 1: five point one yards per rush against the Bears. But
- 34:02Speaker 1: their EPA per rush was minus point three to three,
- 34:06Speaker 1: which is like, what five times lower.
- 34:08Speaker 2: Than their season is the worst I've ever seen.
- 34:11Speaker 1: That is terrible. I can't even make sense of that.
- 34:15Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean listen, a lot of empty yards.
- 34:18Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair to say.
- 34:21Speaker 2: I mean, listen, what here's what can explain it? Ready,
- 34:24Speaker 2: I'm going to give you a hypothetical here. You know,
- 34:27Speaker 2: it's third and ten, you rush for nine yards. That's
- 34:32Speaker 2: going to put your yards per play up significantly, but
- 34:36Speaker 2: that's not going to contribute to points.
- 34:38Speaker 1: It's fair, very fair.
- 34:41Speaker 2: Oh man, empty yards.
- 34:42Speaker 1: Boy, their season average. I think that's the bigger focus
- 34:45Speaker 1: right now. There's this is an offense that is worth
- 34:48Speaker 1: over one hundred and ninety five million dollars. That is
- 34:52Speaker 1: generating a negative EPA per play, a barely positive EPA
- 34:58Speaker 1: pass at point oh one, and then negative EPA per
- 35:03Speaker 1: rush at minus point zero six. I mean, that is
- 35:07Speaker 1: hard to It's not hard to believe for anybody who's
- 35:09Speaker 1: actually watched every game. But if we were to slid
- 35:12Speaker 1: these numbers in front of people, you know, at the
- 35:15Speaker 1: beginning of the year and said this is what it's
- 35:16Speaker 1: gonna look like by after week thirteen, you would have
- 35:19Speaker 1: got laughed at you. You would have nobody said. Nobody
- 35:23Speaker 1: would have said that that that would even be possible.
- 35:25Speaker 2: I wish we were laughing now.
- 35:27Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, So the net time, I love your your
- 35:33Speaker 1: uh you do your time to throw and time to
- 35:35Speaker 1: pressure right to get pressured and then subtract and get
- 35:38Speaker 1: a net. They're now at minus point two to three
- 35:41Speaker 1: Sam that they are. So that means is that that's
- 35:46Speaker 1: I mean it was it was it was better a
- 35:48Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago. If I'm not mistaken, right, I think?
- 35:50Speaker 2: So, yeah, yeah, I can check that.
- 35:53Speaker 1: I do feel like the last three or four games
- 35:56Speaker 1: you're seeing a lot of holding no ons at the
- 35:58Speaker 1: ball and uh, you know on this indecisiveness from Jalen Hurts.
- 36:03Speaker 2: Yep, I, I definitely agree with that. It's it's this
- 36:08Speaker 2: stat it's a good stat but you have to provide
- 36:11Speaker 2: context for it, and that's what we try to do
- 36:14Speaker 2: each each week. But like I said, because if you
- 36:17Speaker 2: have a quarterback like Hurts, who can you know, extend
- 36:20Speaker 2: and make plays. Not saying he has been doing great
- 36:23Speaker 2: job at that, but typically you tolerate a negative number, which,
- 36:30Speaker 2: to be honest, with the most quarterbacks the NFL are
- 36:32Speaker 2: going to have a negative number because just because your
- 36:34Speaker 2: pressure doesn't mean you're sacked or right right, but you
- 36:39Speaker 2: tolerate one with someone who can extend. Problem is if
- 36:42Speaker 2: that person is not extending, it's it's not an ideal statistic.
- 36:47Speaker 1: Sure, the Eagles are getting pressured at a thirty five
- 36:50Speaker 1: percent rate for the year, the doubt the Cowboys got
- 36:54Speaker 1: him at around thirty eight percent, so they were high.
- 36:56Speaker 1: Now the Bears did not, but that's because you know
- 37:00Speaker 1: weird one. I mean, the first of all, the Eagles
- 37:02Speaker 1: had a very limited number of plays and possessions, so
- 37:05Speaker 1: that that influences it as well.
- 37:08Speaker 2: Last last episode there met time before pressure was minus
- 37:13Speaker 2: zero point two.
- 37:14Speaker 1: Oh wow, so to be minus point two three is
- 37:19Speaker 1: pretty significant. Yeah, that is, that's a two. I mean
- 37:22Speaker 1: two games really really brought that number down a lot.
- 37:27Speaker 2: I mean, look at the Dallas game. You want to
- 37:29Speaker 2: know why.
- 37:30Speaker 1: Yeah, minus point three to eight. Yeah, not good. That
- 37:34Speaker 1: ideal not ideal. Uh, sack percentage, you know, seven point
- 37:40Speaker 1: three percent for the season. They actually did better against
- 37:44Speaker 1: Dallas and Chicago, but that a lot of that. You know,
- 37:47Speaker 1: we talk about this. Jalen's very willing to take sacks
- 37:50Speaker 1: by holding on to the ball as long as he
- 37:52Speaker 1: does a fumble. Starting to lose, you know, obviously they've
- 37:55Speaker 1: had some turnovers lately.
- 37:56Speaker 2: But yeah, the the they're coming on, it's it's not
- 38:03Speaker 2: not great football, no, particularly offensively.
- 38:07Speaker 1: So anything else here really jump out of you. You know,
- 38:10Speaker 1: we do we do usually talk a little bit about
- 38:12Speaker 1: the run success rate, the stuff rate, stack box, light box.
- 38:17Speaker 2: It just it doesn't seem to Matt. You know, one
- 38:20Speaker 2: thing that feels really good is in that Dallas game.
- 38:23Speaker 2: Actually in both games, they're run stuff rate has decreased.
- 38:28Speaker 2: Notably they're run success rate as yes, so decreased, but
- 38:33Speaker 2: particularly that stuff rate feels good that it's going down.
- 38:37Speaker 1: Yeah, like We're not seeing Saquon just getting completely bombed
- 38:40Speaker 1: behind the line scrimmage five six yards lot.
- 38:42Speaker 2: Oh no, we're still seeing that, just like.
- 38:46Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying as much. No, I mean, it's
- 38:50Speaker 1: crazy that Dallas used a light box against the Eagles
- 38:54Speaker 1: sixty one time compared to the season average of thirty
- 38:57Speaker 1: seven and we're still able to Jenner, you know, have
- 39:01Speaker 1: the Eagles on a minus point oh five epa per rush.
- 39:04Speaker 1: That's kind of crazy to me. Yep, all right, that's
- 39:08Speaker 1: an illustration of the Eagles offense. What else do we
- 39:11Speaker 1: have here? More? Run off? Boy, you're a really glutton
- 39:14Speaker 1: for punishment today.
- 39:16Speaker 2: You know, I said we're gonna focus on the run game,
- 39:18Speaker 2: and we're gonna because okay, we've talked about this past game.
- 39:22Speaker 2: There's not much else I can say. It's been the
- 39:24Speaker 2: same thing over and over and over again. The one
- 39:26Speaker 2: thing that's different is we saw AJ Brown actually do something. Uh,
- 39:30Speaker 2: And I don't I don't mean that in a disparaging
- 39:32Speaker 2: way to AJ Brown. I just mean that, you know,
- 39:35Speaker 2: they actually used him and he scored some points. It
- 39:38Speaker 2: didn't lead to a win, but it feels good to
- 39:41Speaker 2: be able to say that that's the only difference in
- 39:43Speaker 2: the past game that I feel like is worth mentioning.
- 39:45Speaker 2: But let's let's let's get into this run game.
- 39:48Speaker 1: Okay, what would you like to accentuate here?
- 39:52Speaker 2: Yeah, I just uh, let's let's look at their rushing yards.
- 39:55Speaker 2: Let's look at the season total first and then we'll
- 39:58Speaker 2: break it down. So thirteen oh two on the season,
- 40:02Speaker 2: which is not good for the Eagle standard at this point,
- 40:07Speaker 2: they were significantly more than that last year rush yards
- 40:11Speaker 2: over expectation. Again, what this is is an algorithm basically
- 40:15Speaker 2: says what how many yards are expected based on the play,
- 40:18Speaker 2: based on whatever they have situational factors that go into it.
- 40:22Speaker 2: You know, here's what's surprising. Plus one hundred and forty seven.
- 40:28Speaker 2: They're getting more yards than they're expected to.
- 40:33Speaker 1: That is a real indictment of the offensive line. The
- 40:38Speaker 1: only way you could say.
- 40:38Speaker 2: Right, yep, you look at the attempts three twenty seven
- 40:42Speaker 2: for four yards per attempt, rushing yards over expected per attempt,
- 40:46Speaker 2: they're getting about a half a yard.
- 40:48Speaker 1: I would have not thought if you had asked me
- 40:50Speaker 1: that they would have a positive number in rushing yards
- 40:53Speaker 1: over expectation.
- 40:53Speaker 2: I wouldn't have it. And then the yards before contact
- 40:58Speaker 2: per attempt is one four to two and yards after
- 41:01Speaker 2: contact per attempt is two point six to one, so
- 41:04Speaker 2: a lot of it's coming after contact. Yeah, let's compare that.
- 41:09Speaker 2: What that those numbers are on the season average to
- 41:12Speaker 2: the Dallas and Chicago game. They're averaging one hundred and
- 41:16Speaker 2: eight point five yards per game in Dallas they had
- 41:20Speaker 2: sixty three. In Chicago they had eighty seven, So way
- 41:24Speaker 2: below right, way below, I guess in Philly for the
- 41:27Speaker 2: for the Chicago one is what I meant to say.
- 41:29Speaker 2: Against Chicago, and then their rush yards over expected per
- 41:33Speaker 2: game is plus twelve point two five Against Dallas it
- 41:37Speaker 2: was minus fifteen, and then against Chicago was plus nine.
- 41:44Speaker 1: And again with.
- 41:45Speaker 2: These significantly negative EPA for rushes, they're still not great plays.
- 41:52Speaker 2: So that there's that, And they had significantly less attempts
- 41:56Speaker 2: than their season average. Their rush yards per attempt was
- 42:02Speaker 2: better versus Chicago and worse on the season in Dallas,
- 42:09Speaker 2: and then their rush yards over expected per attempt was
- 42:12Speaker 2: the same for the season against Chicago and it was
- 42:18Speaker 2: worse for Dallas. What's interesting is they were contacted before
- 42:25Speaker 2: the like before their yards before contact per attempt was
- 42:30Speaker 2: worse in Dallas and significantly better versus Chicago. Right, Yeah,
- 42:38Speaker 2: that's that's I mean. Listen, their yards after contact was
- 42:40Speaker 2: better on the season than both, so that that's what
- 42:43Speaker 2: those numbers say.
- 42:44Speaker 1: Now, think about this. We just mentioned Dallas played sixty
- 42:48Speaker 1: a light box, right, which is like way higher than
- 42:52Speaker 1: the season average against the Eagles this year, and yet
- 42:54Speaker 1: look at all the red in the Eagles ability to
- 42:57Speaker 1: run that Dallas was able to stop the run basically
- 43:00Speaker 1: their defensive front with their light defense, you know, their
- 43:02Speaker 1: front four and and their linebacker two linebackers. Yep, this
- 43:09Speaker 1: is a defense, by the way, that for the first
- 43:12Speaker 1: ten weeks of the season gave up like hemorrhaged yards.
- 43:17Speaker 1: And now they're just playing a light box against the
- 43:19Speaker 1: Eagles and saying, well, we'll just stop your run, like unbelievable.
- 43:22Speaker 1: Who again, who would have believed that going into the year.
- 43:25Speaker 2: They would have been like, yeah, they traded Micah Parsons away,
- 43:28Speaker 2: and yeah, I mean just just crazy.
- 43:34Speaker 1: And it's not like I think Dallas really got that
- 43:36Speaker 1: much better at the linebacker level. They trade. They did
- 43:38Speaker 1: get over shown back. He's a very fast, rangy guy.
- 43:41Speaker 2: You know.
- 43:41Speaker 1: They traded for Logan Wilson even I don't even know
- 43:44Speaker 1: how much he played. He wasn't doing great with the Bengals.
- 43:47Speaker 1: He was bench there. So it's not like they've got
- 43:49Speaker 1: you know, these great off play I don't have Bond
- 43:52Speaker 1: and Dean, you know.
- 43:54Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's this was this was a hard one
- 43:57Speaker 2: to you know, research because it was it was tough man.
- 44:03Speaker 1: All right, Well, now we go on to Eagles defense,
- 44:07Speaker 1: which you know, the people are still wondering what happened
- 44:10Speaker 1: against the Bears. Uh huh A lot of red, a
- 44:16Speaker 1: lot of red there EPA per play against the Bears
- 44:19Speaker 1: is in the red minus point oh four e paper
- 44:21Speaker 1: rush plus point one five.
- 44:24Speaker 2: By the way, that's a negative, right, yes, But by
- 44:27Speaker 2: the way, what you were saying with Logan Wilson, he
- 44:29Speaker 2: played forty six point so he did.
- 44:32Speaker 1: Play, that's right. He played there. Yeah, but he's not
- 44:34Speaker 1: like some great linebacker anymore.
- 44:37Speaker 2: So I don't know just what did they say that?
- 44:39Speaker 2: That's all? Yeah, move back to this.
- 44:42Speaker 1: Well, I guess that Eccenti was the point that the
- 44:43Speaker 1: guy like that plays and they're able to stop the
- 44:46Speaker 1: the run basically six guys, right, Yeah, what jumps out
- 44:51Speaker 1: here on defense? Van stats besides everything against the Bears
- 44:54Speaker 1: being in the.
- 44:54Speaker 2: Red YEP, that's what jumps out.
- 44:58Speaker 1: Well, I figured it would. I'm just trying to think,
- 45:03Speaker 1: as I like, parse to the numbers here epa per
- 45:06Speaker 1: rush plus point one five. That I mean, look at
- 45:11Speaker 1: the disparity on the season average is minus point oh five.
- 45:15Speaker 1: They've been a good team for the most part. They've
- 45:18Speaker 1: had some blips like the Giants game for they lost,
- 45:21Speaker 1: but as a rushing defense, they were great against the Lions,
- 45:23Speaker 1: great against the Packers, right and then boom, and also
- 45:27Speaker 1: good against Dallas minus point oh two, minus point two two.
- 45:32Speaker 2: It is hard. It is hard to stop the in
- 45:36Speaker 2: the trenches is where battles are won and lost. But
- 45:38Speaker 2: he wears you down. And I know you have a
- 45:41Speaker 2: lot of good data that you have on wearing down. Yeah,
- 45:46Speaker 2: in the trenches. So we'll talk about that in a second.
- 45:48Speaker 1: Definitely, definitely, all right, So we move.
- 45:51Speaker 2: To the next Yes, I teed you up.
- 45:55Speaker 1: Ah, look at that? How nice are you? Yes? So,
- 45:58Speaker 1: the point I had made in a story that I
- 46:00Speaker 1: wrote for Philly Voice was that the Eagles have played
- 46:04Speaker 1: sixty nine more defensive snaps through thirteen or twelve twelve
- 46:09Speaker 1: games right, eight and four. Yeah, twelve games than last year,
- 46:14Speaker 1: and sixty nine snaps through twelve at it like five
- 46:18Speaker 1: six per game. That in itself is like a negligible difference,
- 46:21Speaker 1: but it is more. But the biggest thing I noticed
- 46:25Speaker 1: was that last year, obviously Vic played four defensive tackles.
- 46:28Speaker 1: He played Jalen Carter, he played Jordan Davis, he played
- 46:31Speaker 1: Moro Joe Onen. Of course Milton Williams was a starter,
- 46:35Speaker 1: but Moro Jomo played a decent amount with Milton Williams
- 46:38Speaker 1: last year. This year, he's basically just playing three and
- 46:42Speaker 1: all three of them are playing a higher percentage of snaps,
- 46:46Speaker 1: including Davis going from thirty seven percent to sixty two
- 46:49Speaker 1: percent and a Jomo going from thirty seven percent to
- 46:52Speaker 1: sixty five percent. So not only are those two guys
- 46:55Speaker 1: playing a way higher percentage of snaps per game, but
- 46:59Speaker 1: the Eagles are all so playing about six more snaps
- 47:02Speaker 1: per game on defense per week. So it's like a
- 47:05Speaker 1: double whammy. And they may wonder if they're just wearing down.
- 47:11Speaker 2: And I think there's a lot to that, and I
- 47:15Speaker 2: think it's tough, and I think you're seeing some of
- 47:18Speaker 2: the regression for the offensive line is because of how
- 47:23Speaker 2: much they put in last year and how successful they
- 47:27Speaker 2: were last year. Because it's grueling. And you can say
- 47:30Speaker 2: the same thing about the defensive line. I mean, especially
- 47:33Speaker 2: when you're playing way more snaps, when you're playing a
- 47:35Speaker 2: higher snap count, when you're being dependent on significantly more
- 47:39Speaker 2: each game. It's tough. It built you. You can't make
- 47:44Speaker 2: that and I don't I don't want to call it
- 47:47Speaker 2: an excuse, but it is to an extent. You can't
- 47:50Speaker 2: make that excuse for the offensive line and not also
- 47:52Speaker 2: say you know and recognize that that is a factor
- 47:56Speaker 2: for the defensive line as well.
- 47:58Speaker 1: Yes, and also if you want to just kick the
- 47:59Speaker 1: offense while it's down, you can. You can blame some
- 48:02Speaker 1: of this on the offense's inability to sustain drives and
- 48:05Speaker 1: all the three and outs that are putting the defense
- 48:08Speaker 1: on the field at a higher rate than in the past.
- 48:11Speaker 1: Because for the most part, the Eagles have been good
- 48:13Speaker 1: defensively this year. They've had a few blips, but it's
- 48:16Speaker 1: not like they're on the field a lot because they
- 48:18Speaker 1: keep hemorrhaging third downs and you know they're giving up
- 48:21Speaker 1: yards against the Bears, yes, but not for the season.
- 48:24Speaker 1: So it's another reason to look at the offense and say,
- 48:27Speaker 1: you know, you're you're dragging the rest of the team
- 48:29Speaker 1: down with you.
- 48:30Speaker 2: They've been a good unit besides that.
- 48:32Speaker 1: So well, these these advanced data against the Bears, I mean,
- 48:38Speaker 1: rushing yards, rushing yards over expectation, attempts yards, they're all
- 48:43Speaker 1: in the red and like hugely in the red.
- 48:47Speaker 2: Yeah, not not great. And so this is the same
- 48:50Speaker 2: analysis that we saw for the offense. It's just this
- 48:54Speaker 2: is defensively right.
- 48:56Speaker 1: How about that plus one point zero rushing yards over
- 49:00Speaker 1: expectation per attempt That is as absurdly high of a
- 49:03Speaker 1: number as I've seen on advanced analytics.
- 49:06Speaker 2: Yeah, that that's not good, really not good.
- 49:09Speaker 1: And then the season average, so the average for the
- 49:12Speaker 1: Eagles for rushing yards over expectation per game is about
- 49:16Speaker 1: is a plus plus six and a quarter. The Bears
- 49:19Speaker 1: had forty six, folks, that's just like unbelievable.
- 49:25Speaker 2: I mean, listen to credit to their offensive line, credit
- 49:30Speaker 2: to their running backs, I mean they scheme. Credit credit
- 49:33Speaker 2: to Ben Johnson, credit to the scheme. I mean, listen it.
- 49:37Speaker 2: What that was a great game for them.
- 49:41Speaker 1: It was a great running Amazingly, you know, to put
- 49:44Speaker 1: up numbers like this and it's still be a close game.
- 49:47Speaker 1: Third and fourth quarter showed how difficult the passing was
- 49:49Speaker 1: for both teams. But I will say the Williams touchdown
- 49:53Speaker 1: of Cole Comet was a really nice throw and they
- 49:55Speaker 1: needed that that score. So the one they got they
- 49:58Speaker 1: really needed. And then and they just put the ball
- 50:00Speaker 1: in the hands of Anong Guy and DeAndre Swift and
- 50:03Speaker 1: I do think Sam as we closed it out here,
- 50:07Speaker 1: you know, by the next time we do a show,
- 50:10Speaker 1: it may benefit VIC to start playing a little bit
- 50:14Speaker 1: more of an Byron Young just to get I know,
- 50:17Speaker 1: he's not a high rotation guy. I mean, look at
- 50:20Speaker 1: josh Uche. Josh Ucha was We went through the date
- 50:23Speaker 1: on him for the first five or six and you
- 50:25Speaker 1: you could make an argument he was one of their
- 50:26Speaker 1: top two or three pass rushers. Granted Nolan Smith was
- 50:29Speaker 1: out for a while and Zadarius Smith retired, but he
- 50:32Speaker 1: was doing a good job. What a row season he's
- 50:35Speaker 1: he's because Vic does not want to play more than
- 50:37Speaker 1: three guys at a position, right He's basically playing Nolan Smith,
- 50:41Speaker 1: j Alex Hunt and Jalen Phillips and played special teams.
- 50:44Speaker 2: Wasn't a healthy scratch last game, or was the game?
- 50:48Speaker 1: I think he played special teams. He might have been
- 50:50Speaker 1: on one of them, but either way, the point is
- 50:52Speaker 1: he was actually doing a decent job. But he's out
- 50:55Speaker 1: because Vic don't rotate. You know, if this were a
- 50:57Speaker 1: Jim Schwartz defense, all these guys will be playing right.
- 51:00Speaker 1: And I'm not trying to say Jim better than that.
- 51:01Speaker 1: I mean, clearly Vic's great. I'm just saying Vic may
- 51:05Speaker 1: have to kind of adjust based on what his defense
- 51:08Speaker 1: is being asked to do now because of the offensive shortcomings.
- 51:12Speaker 2: Vic is going to have to do some herculean effort
- 51:15Speaker 2: in order to these games. I mean he has been.
- 51:17Speaker 2: I mean credit to him and his defense, because without that,
- 51:22Speaker 2: this season would be disastrous. I don't think we're in
- 51:26Speaker 2: twenty twenty three territory. I know everybody wants to make
- 51:29Speaker 2: that comparison because anytime there's adversity after you know, a
- 51:34Speaker 2: good season, you make those fair I mean, that's that's
- 51:36Speaker 2: what humans do. I'm not just saying, Eagles fan, you
- 51:39Speaker 2: make patterns. Is how we survive. It's a survival thing.
- 51:44Speaker 2: It goes very deep, and we don't have to get
- 51:45Speaker 2: too into that part of it. Yeah, what I'm saying,
- 51:48Speaker 2: is I understand that I don't think we're in that
- 51:51Speaker 2: territory because we have so much competency on the defensive side.
- 51:55Speaker 2: Despite I'm saying that, despite what we saw against the barriers,
- 52:00Speaker 2: I don't think we're going to see a game like
- 52:02Speaker 2: that again the rest of the season.
- 52:03Speaker 1: I would be surprised myself. I agree with you. I
- 52:05Speaker 1: also think though, that even even if I don't think
- 52:09Speaker 1: a slide is coming, like they've got five games left,
- 52:11Speaker 1: I don't see oh and five, one and four like
- 52:13Speaker 1: we saw at the end of twenty twenty three. But
- 52:15Speaker 1: I would tell you three and two would still just
- 52:18Speaker 1: make them what eleven and six, and that would probably
- 52:22Speaker 1: still be a lot very it would not I think
- 52:24Speaker 1: that eleven and six would not make people think the
- 52:27Speaker 1: Eagles were truly Super Bowl contenders.
- 52:29Speaker 2: Agree, but I mean, look, this has been one of
- 52:32Speaker 2: the toughest schedules I've ever seen the Eagles play. I mean,
- 52:35Speaker 2: it's it's easy. I mean, they're gonna get lucky if
- 52:39Speaker 2: Herbert ends up not playing this week, which is a
- 52:42Speaker 2: much needed break. But again, do you really want to
- 52:45Speaker 2: beat a team that's not at their best? I mean, look,
- 52:48Speaker 2: you'll take.
- 52:49Speaker 1: Yeah, not at this point. You're not You're not on
- 52:52Speaker 1: the come up trying to just take whatever. You're not
- 52:54Speaker 1: the Bears, right, I mean, let's trying to see if
- 52:57Speaker 1: you are a super Bowl team again and defense. Yeah,
- 52:59Speaker 1: so you would like to know, like can you beat
- 53:01Speaker 1: the good playoff teams?
- 53:02Speaker 2: At this point to be the best, you have to
- 53:04Speaker 2: beat the best. I mean, that's that's at the end
- 53:06Speaker 2: of the day. That's where it's at. If they get
- 53:08Speaker 2: lucky and don't have to face Herbert and can pull
- 53:10Speaker 2: out a win there, that feels good, But that's not
- 53:12Speaker 2: a guaranteed win either. I mean, our ball is an
- 53:14Speaker 2: incredible coach. They're they're gonna get Hampton back. Probably, It's
- 53:19Speaker 2: gonna be a tough matchup. The Bills matchup is gonna
- 53:21Speaker 2: be tough. Divisional games are gonna be tough.
- 53:24Speaker 1: Look at what Washington you saw them, how they played
- 53:26Speaker 1: against the Broncos. Are They're not laying down. They're not
- 53:28Speaker 1: just gonna say come come kick our ass as we are.
- 53:31Speaker 1: Season's over. They're they're fighting.
- 53:33Speaker 2: And listen, I I the Raiders game.
- 53:37Speaker 1: It's that's the one I'm not that's the last. That's
- 53:39Speaker 1: the only one I'm like the Eagles don't have to
- 53:41Speaker 1: get off the bus and they can probably win that game.
- 53:43Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I was kind of hoping Ship Kelly
- 53:45Speaker 2: was still going to be in that building for you know,
- 53:48Speaker 2: personal reasons.
- 53:49Speaker 1: But anyway, we'll see great stuff. Man, really appreciate it.
- 53:54Speaker 1: I love the penalty stuff. I think that's really good
- 53:56Speaker 1: and something that we can continue to follow along the
- 53:59Speaker 1: rest of the season and especially in these big games
- 54:01Speaker 1: in the playoffs maybe if penalties play a big part
- 54:04Speaker 1: in them either winning or losing a game. So really
- 54:07Speaker 1: appreciate you going inside that and of course the advanced
- 54:10Speaker 1: running game data as well as hard it is for
- 54:13Speaker 1: people to have to see or listen to, it's what
- 54:15Speaker 1: we got to do present the information as it is.
- 54:18Speaker 1: So great job. We'll do it again next week and
- 54:20Speaker 1: we'll see if we're finally breaking the streak. So for
- 54:23Speaker 1: Sam Finkel, I'm Jeff Mosher. You have been watching inside
- 54:27Speaker 1: the data on inside the Birds.