Latest / The President's Daily Brief / August 31st, 2026: Iran’s Trade Is Collapsing and Gas Lines Are Growing & Trump’s G20 Pressure Campaign

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August 31st, 2026: Iran’s Trade Is Collapsing and Gas Lines Are Growing & Trump’s G20 Pressure Campaign · The President's Daily Brief

0:13
It's Monday,
0:14
the 31st of August.
0:15
Now,
0:15
if you're keeping score at home,
0:18
that would make it the last day of the month.
0:20
Now I'm assuming that pumpkin spice,
0:22
everything is just around the corner.
0:24
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
0:26
I'm Mike Baker,
0:27
your eyes and ears on the world stage.
0:29
All right.
0:30
Let's get briefed.
0:31
First up,
0:32
missiles and drones are flying again in the Iran conflict,
0:36
while US economic pressure
0:38
is starting to hit hard inside Iran as foreign trade collapses,
0:42
oil exports dry up,
0:44
and gasoline lines grow across the country.
0:47
Later in the show,
0:48
the Trump administration takes its economic war against Iran to the G20,
0:53
telling major economies to choose between the Iranian regime
0:57
and access to the American financial system.
1:00
Plus,
1:01
President Trump confirms a sweeping agreement that will
1:04
give the US control over a major share
1:07
of Venezuela's enormous oil reserves.
1:10
And in today's back of the brief,
1:12
the Iranian regime releases a written message
1:15
supposedly from Iran's missing Supreme Leader,
1:18
but still no proof or evidence
1:20
that Mosta al Khamenei is actually alive.
1:24
But first,
1:24
today's PDB spotlight.
1:26
In a brief update on the kinetic side of this conflict,
1:30
the US military reported that it targeted two Revolutionary Guard
1:33
launchers on Lahrik Island off of Iran's coast on Sunday.
1:37
According to the US military,
1:39
the launchers were preparing to deploy sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz.
1:43
In retaliation,
1:44
the IRGC targeted US facilities in Jordan,
1:48
with Jordanian officials saying they intercepted
1:50
several Iranian missiles approaching their territory.
1:54
We'll have further news on this latest action.
1:57
On the economic side of the conflict for 6 months,
2:00
Iran's leaders have insisted that
2:02
their country can withstand whatever economic pressure Washington sends its way.
2:07
But over the weekend,
2:08
the regime offered one of its clearest acknowledgments yet
2:12
that the pressure is beginning to bite.
2:14
Iranian President Massoud Poeskin
2:17
says his country's foreign trade has fallen nearly 35%
2:21
because of US sanctions
2:22
and the naval blockade of Iranian ports.
2:25
Annual inflation reached 66% last month,
2:29
and
2:30
a message written supposedly by the absent Supreme Leader Mustaba Khamenei
2:35
calls on the government to address rising prices,
2:37
unemployment,
2:38
and growing economic hardship.
2:41
Most revealingly,
2:42
Posseskin is publicly advocating for a return to the interim agreement that
2:47
Tehran and Washington reached back in June.
2:50
That agreement or memorandum or whatever we call it briefly eased sanctions
2:55
and allowed Iran to resume oil sales.
2:58
Posseskian says Iran managed to export approximately 90
3:01
million barrels while it was in effect.
3:04
He said,
3:04
quote,
3:05
We can solve our problems and gain
3:06
our privileges with the memorandum of understanding,
3:09
end quote.
3:11
Now that's not an offer to surrender,
3:13
and Iran's hardliners are continuing to promise
3:16
resistance.
3:17
And of course it's unclear.
3:19
Whether Posseskin has any actual authority or
3:21
sway within the current regime leadership.
3:24
Now the clearest explanation for Posseskin's public statement
3:28
can be found in Iran's oil industry.
3:30
The US resumed its blockade of Iranian shipping and ports on July 13th,
3:35
cutting into Tehran's primary source,
3:37
of course,
3:38
of hard currency.
3:39
Ship tracking data indicates that no
3:41
super tanker carrying newly loaded Iranian crude
3:45
has visibly crossed the Strait of Hormuz since then,
3:48
though some vessels may be operating without their
3:51
location transponders.
3:53
China remains of course Iran's dominant oil customer,
3:56
but its imports of Iranian crude have fallen sharply.
4:00
Chinese buyers imported an average of approximately
4:02
1.4 million barrels per day last year.
4:05
In August,
4:06
that figure fell to roughly 534,000 barrels per day.
4:11
Iranian crude is normally offered at a steep
4:14
discount because buyers risk violating American sanctions.
4:17
But the remaining supplies have become so scarce
4:20
that some Iranian oil was recently being offered at a premium.
4:24
Iran is still receiving money from oil
4:26
that's loaded before the blockade tightened.
4:29
Millions of barrels remain aboard ships in Asian waters,
4:32
and payments often arrive weeks after delivery.
4:36
But that stockpile is being steadily depleted,
4:39
with little newly exported oil available to replace it.
4:43
And now the pressure is beginning to appear at Iran's gas stations.
4:47
Iran consumes more gasoline than it can currently produce.
4:51
Domestic refineries
4:52
are operating near their limit at approximately 130 million L per day,
4:57
while Iranians consume at least 137 million.
5:01
Imports previously helped cover that gap.
5:04
The blockade,
5:05
of course,
5:05
has largely cut those imports off.
5:08
Long lines have formed outside gasoline stations across Tehran,
5:12
with some drivers reportedly waiting 2 hours or more.
5:15
The government may soon
5:17
have to reduce subsidized gasoline quotas.
5:20
Impose stricter rationing or raise prices to curb demand,
5:24
and any of those options
5:26
could carry serious political risks.
5:28
A sudden gas price increase helped ignite nationwide protests back in 2019.
5:34
Iran's latest wave of unrest also began with economic
5:37
grievances before spreading across the country in January,
5:40
at which point,
5:41
of course,
5:42
the regime crushed the protests by
5:44
killing thousands of their own citizens.
5:46
Meanwhile,
5:47
Iranian households are facing food inflation of 128%.
5:52
Families are cutting meat and other staples from their diets,
5:55
while the falling value of the rial continues to erode wages.
5:59
The dollar value of Iran's minimum wage has fallen even after the government
6:03
approved a substantial raise.
6:06
Tehran appears to understand where all that pressure could lead.
6:10
Earlier this month,
6:11
the government placed Hossein Taye,
6:13
he's a veteran hardliner associated with previous crackdowns,
6:16
in charge of the Basij militia.
6:19
Now that's the force that Iran's rulers
6:21
have repeatedly used to suppress protests.
6:24
That is an indicator
6:26
of both what the regime fears an increasingly restive and angry population,
6:31
and how they intend to deal with that potential civil unrest.
6:35
They killed their way out of the last series of protests,
6:38
and it appears
6:39
that they don't intend to change their game plan
6:41
for any future unrest.
6:44
All right.
6:44
Coming up next,
6:45
Washington pressures the G20 to cut ties with Iran
6:49
as President Trump confirms a sweeping deal giving the US control over a major share
6:54
of Venezuela's oil reserves.
6:56
I'll be right back.
6:59
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7:00
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8:06
Welcome back to the PDB.
8:08
Treasury Secretary Scott Besant is about to find out
8:11
just how far President Trump's economic agenda can travel
8:14
beyond Washington.
8:16
This week he's sitting down with the world's largest economies and asking
8:19
them to get behind an American push to reshape global trade,
8:23
confront China's economic practices,
8:25
and further isolate Iran.
8:28
And considering some of those same countries
8:30
are already fighting with Washington over tariffs,
8:33
Bessant has a significant chore ahead of him.
8:36
Finance ministers and central bank governors from
8:38
the G20 are gathering in Asheville,
8:41
North Carolina today and tomorrow.
8:44
Some of you will remember that Abescent stayed away from the G20 process last year
8:48
when South Africa was in charge.
8:50
Now the US is hosting,
8:52
and he wants to put American
8:54
leadership and the Trump administration's economic worldview
8:57
back at the center of the conversation.
9:00
But the first problem Bessant has to get through is tariffs.
9:03
Every G20 country and the EU
9:05
has already been hit with new US tariffs,
9:08
while Washington's trade fight with Canada
9:10
has grown increasingly bitter.
9:12
So Besant is asking these governments to buy into
9:15
Washington's argument that the global trading system needs to change
9:18
while they're simultaneously dealing
9:21
with America's effort to change it.
9:23
From the Trump administration's perspective,
9:25
China is a prime example of why that change is necessary.
9:29
Beijing has spent years supporting its manufacturing sector
9:32
while demand at home has remained weak,
9:34
pushing enormous amounts of Chinese products into foreign markets.
9:38
With Trump's tariffs making the American market much harder to access,
9:42
more of those products are now flowing into Europe,
9:45
and that's where Bescent may have an opening.
9:48
European governments are increasingly worried that heavily supported
9:50
Chinese products could overwhelm their own industries.
9:54
So,
9:55
while Europe may disagree with Trump over tariffs,
9:58
Washington and Brussels increasingly see the same problem coming out of China.
10:02
The harder part is convincing Beijing to change,
10:05
of course,
10:05
and so far,
10:06
China has shown little interest in reducing
10:09
industrial subsidies or its dependence on exports.
10:13
But Besset will also face questions about America's own economy.
10:17
Large US deficits and growing government
10:19
borrowing have raised concerns about American debt
10:23
and higher Treasury bond yields.
10:26
And then of course,
10:27
well,
10:27
there's Iran.
10:29
The war has pushed energy prices higher
10:32
while uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz
10:34
continues to hurt growth across the G20.
10:37
But instead of backing away from Tehran,
10:40
Washington wants these governments to increase the pressure,
10:42
as we've discussed on the PDB.
10:44
Besan has warned countries that
10:46
they could face secondary US sanctions if they continue buying
10:49
Iranian oil or helping the regime conduct financial transactions.
10:54
China,
10:54
of course,
10:55
is the wild card in Trump's Operation Economic Outcast plan.
10:59
That's the name given to the increased pressure campaign
11:02
on Iran's economy.
11:03
As Iran's largest economic lifeline and trading partner,
11:07
China's decision to either cooperate
11:09
with or ignore
11:11
the White House's plan
11:13
could make or break the overall effort.
11:15
OK,
11:16
I want to shift now to Venezuela,
11:18
where President Trump says the US has
11:20
secured majority control over proven oil reserves
11:23
in a deal that could give Washington a new source of energy much closer to home.
11:28
Trump says the agreement won't cost American taxpayers anything,
11:32
and he believes bringing all of this additional oil onto the market
11:35
will eventually help substantially lower gasoline prices.
11:39
Trump announced the deal Friday on Truth Social,
11:41
saying Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense,
11:44
or,
11:45
or war,
11:45
whichever you prefer,
11:46
Pete Hegseth
11:47
worked alongside Venezuela's interim president Dulcie Rodriguez
11:51
and private business to secure what he called majority US control
11:55
of more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves,
12:00
so.
12:01
Let's get into exactly what that means,
12:03
shall we?
12:04
The US isn't simply being given 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil.
12:09
Instead,
12:09
Rodriguez has granted a private company
12:12
formed through a partnership between the US government and a private operator
12:16
long-term rights to develop strategic oil fields.
12:20
We'll do a follow-on story and identify and
12:23
talk about this private operator in Venezuela.
12:26
The US would effectively control 55% of the company's output
12:31
through an ownership stake and the right to purchase oil from the venture at cost.
12:35
If everything goes according to plan,
12:37
this new company would become the 2nd
12:39
largest corporate holder of proven oil reserves worldwide
12:43
behind only
12:44
Saudi Aramco.
12:46
To give you some idea of the scale we're talking about,
12:49
Venezuela is sitting on roughly 300 billion barrels of proven reserves.
12:53
That's more than Saudi Arabia,
12:55
which has about 265 billion
12:58
and more than 6 times the proven reserves
13:01
in the US.
13:02
The 65 billion barrels covered by this agreement amount
13:05
to more than 1/5 of that enormous supply.
13:09
As production increases,
13:10
an American official familiar with the agreement says
13:12
crude purchased at cost could also be used
13:15
to help refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
13:18
and supply the US military,
13:20
but Washington isn't the only one seeing an upside here.
13:23
In a late night address Saturday on state TV,
13:26
Rodriguez called the agreement historic,
13:29
saying it would help revive Venezuela's economy
13:31
and increase government revenue.
13:34
She also says the bilateral agreement will remain in place for 25 years.
13:39
Rodriguez said,
13:40
quote,
13:40
This project envisions the development of 17 strategic oil fields
13:44
with a production target of more than 1.5 million barrels per day,
13:48
end quote.
13:49
Rubio says the agreement could also bring nearly
13:52
$100 billion in private investment into Venezuela,
13:55
support thousands of high paying jobs,
13:57
and help rebuild an economy fractured by years of socialist mismanagement.
14:02
Now I want to point out that
14:04
Rodriguez stressed that Venezuela will still retain ownership and sovereignty
14:09
over its natural resources,
14:11
and that's an important distinction.
14:13
Venezuela would continue owning the oil
14:15
beneath its territory while Trump is describing
14:18
American control over the venture that's developing and producing much of it.
14:23
And Venezuela has plenty of reason to want American help.
14:27
Despite having the world's largest proven oil reserves,
14:30
the country currently produces only about 1.25 million barrels per day.
14:34
Since the Trump administration removed Maduro in January,
14:38
Washington has been pushing American companies to
14:40
return to Venezuela and help rebuild the industry
14:43
that was badly damaged by years of international sanctions.
14:47
Many
14:48
up to this point have been reluctant,
14:49
but this agreement
14:51
could change their calculation.
14:53
For Trump,
14:53
there's also a broader strategic benefit.
14:55
The war with Iran has exposed the vulnerability
14:58
of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz,
15:00
which normally
15:02
carries roughly 15% of the world's petroleum.
15:05
Developing more Venezuelan oil under a US-controlled venture
15:08
would give Washington another enormous source of crude much closer to home,
15:12
while potentially helping replenish the strategic petroleum reserve and
15:16
put downward pressure
15:18
on gasoline prices.
15:20
All right.
15:21
Coming up in the back of the brief,
15:22
a written message supposedly or allegedly or
15:25
purportedly from Iranian Supreme Leader Mustaba Khamenei
15:29
calls for Muslim unity against Iran's enemies.
15:33
Even as the Supreme Leader,
15:35
it remains nowhere to be seen.
15:37
More on that when we come back.
15:41
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In today's back of the brief,
17:55
last week we continued raising questions
17:57
about whether Iran's Supreme Leader Mustaba Khamenei
17:59
is actually running the country or if he's even alive.
18:04
Well,
18:04
perhaps the regime was listening to the PDB
18:07
this weekend.
18:07
A new message attributed to Khamenei appeared on his Telegram account.
18:11
Oh,
18:11
he's got a Telegram account.
18:13
It was released for Islamic Unity Week,
18:15
which marks the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad.
18:18
Now the message supposedly from the Supreme Leader urged Muslim governments,
18:22
especially those in the Gulf,
18:23
to unite
18:24
against what the written message called
18:26
their real enemy.
18:28
The message called for greater cooperation
18:30
and mutual defense among Islamic countries.
18:32
It also warned that anyone creating divisions among Muslims,
18:36
either knowingly or unknowingly,
18:37
was helping Islam's enemies.
18:40
And the message asked whether Palestinians would have been
18:43
left so helpless if Muslim countries had been united.
18:46
His recommendation or somebody's recommendation,
18:48
or whomever wrote this message
18:50
to Gulf rulers,
18:51
quote,
18:52
Identify your real enemy,
18:53
understand his plan,
18:54
and confront it,
18:55
end quote.
18:56
Now that appeal is rather
18:58
remarkable,
18:59
and apparently they have no sense of self-awareness considering that Iran
19:03
has spent the past 6 months launching drones and
19:05
missiles into a variety of Gulf countries including Bahrain,
19:08
the UAE,
19:09
Jordan,
19:10
Saudi Arabia,
19:10
Qatar,
19:11
and Kuwait.
19:13
But the substance of the message is really secondary to the way it was delivered.
19:16
Mustaba Khamenei still has not been seen or heard publicly
19:20
since he was reportedly injured in the U.S.Israeli strikes
19:23
that launched the war in February.
19:25
Those attacks killed his father Ali Khabanei,
19:28
along with other senior Iranian officials.
19:30
Since then,
19:31
The regime has repeatedly insisted that Mushtaba
19:34
is recovering and continues to govern.
19:36
Iranian media
19:37
has released archive footage
19:39
showing him before he became Supreme Leader.
19:42
Statements have appeared under his name.
19:44
Officials continue to speak
19:46
as if he is directing the country.
19:48
But
19:49
what Iran has not produced
19:51
is Mukhtaba Khamenei himself.
19:53
There was no live address accompanying this weekend's message,
19:56
no newly recorded video or audio,
19:58
nothing demonstrating
19:59
that Khamenei personally wrote it,
20:01
dictated it,
20:02
or approved it.
20:03
The statement could well have been drafted,
20:05
uh,
20:06
by anyone.
20:07
It could have been assembled from his previous remarks.
20:09
It could simply represent
20:10
Iran's governing
20:11
institutions,
20:12
whatever that leadership looks like currently,
20:14
speaking in the Supreme Leader's name.
20:17
Without actual evidence that Khamenei is alive
20:20
and insufficient health to be in charge,
20:23
doubts continue to grow over his status
20:26
and over the question of who actually runs the Iranian regime.
20:31
And that my friends,
20:32
is the President's Daily Brief for Monday,
20:34
the 31st of August.
20:35
If you have any questions or comments,
20:37
please reach out to me
20:38
at PDB@hefirsttv.com,
20:41
and I hope you had a chance to catch our weekend show.
20:43
That's the PDB Situation Report.
20:45
As always,
20:46
we had excellent guests providing insight and analysis on key topics of the week,
20:51
and yet
20:52
still no house band.
20:53
Not even a theme song.
20:55
You can catch it in past episodes on our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief
21:00
and on podcast platforms
21:01
wherever you get your podcast stuff.
21:04
I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin.
21:08
Until then,
21:09
stay informed,
21:10
stay safe,
21:11
stay cool.