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“You win some, you Newsom.” · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: On today's pod, Gavin Newsom lives to fight another day
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: as the Republican recall goes down in flames. Congresswoman Katie
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Porter is here to talk about the latest negotiations over
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden's economic plan, and we go through the top
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: five quotes from some new books that detail just how
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: close Trump came to pulling off a coup. But first,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: check out the brand new season of This Land where
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Rebecca Nagel takes you inside her year-long investigation into a
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: series of custody battles over Native American children, which reveals
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: a bigger story about shadowy right-wing groups and big corporations
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: using the issue of adoption to destroy the entire legal
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: structure that protects Native rights. This is fantastic journalism that
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Rebecca has done yet again. It is an outstanding listen.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Do yourself a favor. Catch up on the first five
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: episodes now, wherever you get your podcasts. You can also
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: catch Rebecca this week on America Dissected, which turns 100
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: episodes old this week. Rebecca joins Abdul for a discussion
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: about how Native Americans were able to go from being
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: one of the hardest hit communities by COVID to now
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: one of the most vaccinated. Follow America Dissected on Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. We thought
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: y'all could use some good news. So we got you
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: a landslide in California. Governor Gavin Newsom has defeated the
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: recall and will keep his job thanks to very high
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: turnout among Democratic voters. No is currently leading by 64
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: to 36 percent, with about 75 percent of the vote in,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: though that margin is expected to shrink a bit since
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: some of the later mail-in ballots tend to trend Republican.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Here's Newsom declaring victory on Tuesday night.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: Democracy is not a football. You don't throw it around.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: It's more like an antique vase.
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: You can drop it and smash it into a million
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: different pieces.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: And that's what we're capable of doing if we don't
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: stand up to meet the moment and push back. I
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: said this many, many times on the campaign trail.
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: You may have defeated Trump, but Trumpism is not dead
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: in this country.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Democracy is like an antique vase that you might see
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: at fancy places like French Laundry. Just kidding. Just kidding. So, Dan,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: in the middle of August, the 538 polling average had
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Newsom avoiding a recall by just 0.2%. Not 2%, 0.2%
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: was the polling average. He's now ahead by 28%. For context,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Newsom won the governorship in 2018 for the first time
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: by 24%. And Biden won California in 2020 by 29%.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: What is your hottest, spiciest take on what happened between
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: mid-August and yesterday?
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: Well, the most popular take is all the polls were wrong.
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: Because dunking on pollsters is really in vogue these days.
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: And I understand it. They get our hopes up. They
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: crush them. They refuse to learn lessons from previous elections.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: You've never engaged in this practice yourself, of course.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: Of wrong dunking on pollsters?
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: There is no bad habit, like annoying Twitter habit that
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: I haven't engaged in at least once if you look
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: at my tweets.
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: So that's fine.
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: But I just want to say that polls are not predictors, right?
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: They are a snapshot in time based on a supposition
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: of what could happen. And so there's this just view
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: that Newsom was always up by 28%. Why did we
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: ever worry? Why did people care? What was all the
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: hullabaloo about? But this was not one poll. It was
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: a couple of polls, two specific polls, SurveyUSA, which is
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: a terrible poll. And if you go to their website,
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: it truly looks like an AOL chat room from 1996.
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: It is terrible.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Also, by the way, it's got an A- rating or
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: an A rating from FiveThirtyEight, which just goes to show you,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: not that FiveThirtyEight's rating system is terrible or anything, but
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: take those ratings on the pollster ratings with a grain
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: of salt. Because even some good pollsters can have really
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: bad polls, which clearly surveyed USA did in this case.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: They literally had Gavin Newsom losing by nine points. It
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: wasn't even like it was tied. It was losing by
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: nine points. I'm guaranteed he was not down by nine points.
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: There was a wording mistake in there, which they fixed
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: between the two polls that showed the giant change. But
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: I think those polls actually affected the race. Whether they
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: were accurate, whether it was what was actually going to
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: happen or not, things changed from July 1st. And one
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: of the things that changed is those polls were a
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: holy shit moment for California Democrats who were like, oh,
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: we could end up with Larry Elder as our governor.
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: And if you talk to anyone who organized phone banks, canvases,
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: those grassroots organized state, they will say that it was
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: very hard to get people engaged before those polls. And afterwards,
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: they were filling up phone bank shifts. And so they matter.
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: I don't know whether they were right or they're wrong,
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: but they were incredibly impactful. And maybe Newsom was always
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: going to win, but he wasn't necessarily always going to
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: win by 28 points.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a take that's not necessarily contradictory to that.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: But like I thought back to the problem with polls
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: in 2020 or one of the problem with the polls
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: in 2020 is that they found that Democrats were more
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: likely to be home during the pandemic anyway, were really
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: excited to vote in 2020 and answered pollsters calls much
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: more than a lot of Republicans did. And so the
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: polls skewed towards Democrats, you know, wrongly by larger margins
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: than they ended up. And I sort of wonder if
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: at the beginning of this, the really excited people in
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: this state were sort of the Republicans who were excited
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: about the recall and Democrats either weren't that excited or.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: or didn't even know there was a recall going on,
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: which was the case with a lot of people in
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: my life here in California who, like, volunteered for Joe Biden,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: made calls for Joe Biden, are usually very politically engaged,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: and still didn't even realize that either there was a
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: recall or that Gavin Newsom might be in trouble because
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: of the recall. So, like, either way, it seems pretty
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: clear that Democrats needed to wake up in this race,
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: whether the polls were accurate or not. And I think
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: that's probably the one lesson that you can take away
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: from the polls, right?
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, if you.
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: In a state with an overwhelming Democratic advantage, you need
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: Democrats to vote.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: If that happens, you can't lose, right? And that's sort
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: of what happened there.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: My larger take, though, and I wonder what you think
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: about this, is that polarization rules everything around us at
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: this point. Like Newsom's margin looks almost identical.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: Is that our episode title, Preem?
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: No.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: That's going to confuse him.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: It's everything around me.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Newsom's margin looks, well, that would have been weird to say.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Newsom's margin looks almost identical to his margin in 2018.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: It's close to Biden's margin in 2020. It's close to
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Jerry Brown's margin in 2014. Like the only differences that
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: you're really seeing are the bluer places getting even bluer,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: the redder places getting even redder. For example, if you
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: look at the map right now, Newsom looks like he's
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: overperforming Biden in some areas around San Francisco. He's slightly
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: underperforming Biden in some rural areas. You saw that across
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: the country in 2020. And in an environment like this,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: it seems like if Democrats get their voters excited and
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Republicans get their voters excited, you're going to see a
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: map and a margin that looks very similar to the
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: last election, only a little more polarized. What do you
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: think about that?
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's right.
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: It wasn't necessarily a given that that would happen in
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: a off-year recall election happening on a random Tuesday in
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: the middle of a pandemic. Like that takes actual organizing
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: work and it takes some strategy. And the recall is
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: a very complicated situation where you could end up with
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: a split vote, where you have some Democrats who, you know,
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: like Newsom's approval rating has been in the mid-80s, I think,
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: with Democrats in a lot of polling, right? You could
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: end up where you have that Democrats who disapprove of
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: Newsom supporting the recall, but then supporting another Democrat on
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: the ballot where it's it's a little bit of this
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: whole thing is a little bit of an apples oranges
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: comparison to everything that is going to come next.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Right. Yes.
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: And look, that's another thing that the Newsom campaign did. Right.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Is to make sure that no other Democrats jumped in
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: the race. And a lot of pundits and a lot
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: of people were like, oh, why can't I just have another?
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I don't like Newsom that much. Why can't I just
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: have another choice for a Democrat? Well, if there was
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: another real choice for a Democrat, who knows what might
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: have happened? Because then you might have had more people
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: voting yes on the recall and then picking a Democrat
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: and Newsom and the other Democrats splitting a vote and
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: then maybe Republican anything could.
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: I mean.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: He's winning by enough that maybe that wouldn't have mattered
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: at all. But it was clearly the right strategy from
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: the Newsom campaign to box out all the other Democrats
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: and to make sure that it was Newsom versus a
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Republican alternative, in this case, a right wing, crazy Republican
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: alternative and Larry Elder. I also think like if you're
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: if you're thinking about what this means going forward, like
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: you got to look at how Newsom did in two
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Orange County districts that flipped Republican in 2020, the 39th
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: and the 48th. Dave Wasserman from Cook Political Report says
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: that he may be on track to slightly lose these districts.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: And of course, in 2020, Democrats slightly lost those districts
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: as well, which would suggest sort of a national political environment.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: If you extrapolate out California, that is perhaps unchanged or
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: hasn't changed a ton since 2020.
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think we are, if you were looking to
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: try to extract something, you got to dig pretty deep
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: to extract it. That tells you something about politics nationally
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: is there is nothing that happened on Tuesday or in
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: the six weeks leading up to Tuesday that suggests anything
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: has changed dramatically. There's not some backlash to Biden. There's
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: not some backlash to Democratic COVID policies. We are just
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: right where we were, which is some pretty fired up Democrats,
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: some pretty fired up Republicans, some folks in the middle
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: who will decide elections in states much closer, most more
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: narrowly divided than California.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: And that's where we are. That could change between now
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: and November of next year.
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: But The political environment is sort of status quo ante
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: from election day 2020 right now.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: And that last point is very important because for all
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: my talk about polarization in a state like California, where
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: it really matters, where candidates matter, their messages matter, their ads,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: the organization, everything else that we talk about in campaigns, polls,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: are in these purple districts and purple states where they're
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: closely divided between Democrats and Republicans, and you win the
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: race on the margins. That's where a lot of the
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: stuff matters. In deep blue states like California or deep
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: red states, it's not going to matter as much. Now,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: you know, you said that you have to dig really
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: deep to extrapolate something, but pundits did not have to
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: dig all that deep. I know this is hard to believe,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: but there were some less than stellar takes about the
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: recall on Twitter of all places. I mean, usually it's
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: a font of... reliable information and great observation. CNN's Chris
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Saliza wrote that it was, quote, a very good night
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: for Larry Elder's political future. But the winner of the
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: most ratioed take of the week goes to CNN's Casey Hunt,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: who wrote, quote, the fact that a Democratic national star-in-waiting
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: faced a recall and then had to fight hard for
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: it midway through the campaign does say a lot about
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: the potential challenges Democrats face across the map. Does it, Dan?
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Does it?
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: This is a situation where A plus B does not
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: equal C. Yes, a Democratic star-in-waiting faced a recall challenge. Yes,
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: Democrats have potential challenges in 2022. Those two things have
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: zero to do with each other. And that is the
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: most important part about this, which is the reason Gavin
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: Newsom faced a recall is California has an absurd recall
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: process with an absurdly low threshold. What it takes is
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: wealthy interests to pay people to gather signatures. to get
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: it on the ballot. Gavin Newsom is quite popular in
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: most polling. He is well north of 50%, you know, 55, 56,
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: 58% in approval rating. His COVID policies in a lot
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: of polls are higher than his overall approving. So there
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: is no backlash to Gavin Newsom. There's no backlash to
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: mass mandates, vaccine mandates, anything having to do with COVID.
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: There is no backlash to Joe Biden. There is no
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: backlash to anything that happened in Afghanistan. The fact that
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: the recall is on the ballot has nothing to do
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: with the national political environment at all. And to make
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: that take, and Casey is an excellent journalist, right? We
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: all have bad takes. I will probably have several before
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: the end of this podcast. But that is just a
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: misunderstanding of the California recall law and the.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: State of politics here.
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: Yes, he did have to fight for it because getting
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: people to turn out in an off-year recall election in
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: a pandemic is hard and you have to work for it.
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: I read all these takes on Tuesday night. I read
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: a whole bunch more last night and in this morning
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: preparation for this pod.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: They're all terrible.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah. We're picking on Casey just because of the incredible ratio,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: which is a stupid reason to pick on someone. But...
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: We are algorithmically guided by Twitter. It is indicative not
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: only of a lot of the other takes, but of
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: an East Coast bias among journalists as well. It's like just...
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Just understand the rules of a recall here in California,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: the country's biggest state. I know that you only think
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: about us out there when the smoke from our wildfires
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: blows across the country and hits the East Coast. But actually,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: we're a huge state out here. A lot of the
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: population of the country right out here.
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: You move to California. Eight years ago? Seven years ago?
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, seven years ago.
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: And you have already adopted the California inferiority complex.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: Like, yes, we have Hollywood.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: I get it now. I totally get it.
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: No one gets us, and they eat shitty tacos over there.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: No one fucking thinks about Pacific Coast time at all.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Everyone's just, like, calling you at random hours. Like, you know,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: we're three hours behind. Do you fucking understand? We have
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: wildfires out here. Climate change is bad. It was bad
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: here for a long time.
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: If you have people in your life who still call
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: you without texting you first, that's on you.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: That's a you problem. Then you have the wrong friends.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: When I first moved out here, it was fucking reporters
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: in DC.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: That's also a you problem.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: So that was some bad takes. I mean, but yeah, look,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: there are more than 5 million Republicans in California. In
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: this case, you only need a little over a million
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: signatures to force a recall petition. Like, that doesn't say
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: anything about Gavin Newsom's unpopularity. That says something about the
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: stupid fucking recall law in California. A couple other takes
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: just to watch out for. You might also see reporters
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: and pundits suggesting that Larry Elder beat the polls by
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: capturing 47% of the vote. He did not. He only
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: captured 47% among the recall candidates. which is about 20%
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: of the overall vote, which is right in line with
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: what the polls said Larry Elder would do. And then
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: the other take that's going around there, it's a suggestion
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: that Newsom underperformed with Latino voters based on the exit polls.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Data on exit poll demographic groups is even more unreliable
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: than the exit polls themselves. And when you look at
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: the actual county data, There are so far no signs
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: that Newsom did any worse in places with significant Latino populations.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: I believe in Orange County so far, something like 85,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: 88 percent of Latinos voted against the recall in Orange County. Now,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: what did happen is Latinos who live in more rural areas,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Newsom may have underperformed among them. And again, this is
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: what we've been talking about before. To the extent that
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: there may be a Democrats may have a problem or
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: a challenge with Latino voters. It is similar to the
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: challenge they have with all voters, which is voters who
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: live in more exurban or rural areas, whether they are white, Latino, black,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: or any race, are trending towards Republicans more than they
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: have in the past.
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: All of these takes are reverse engineered from previously drawn conclusions.
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: If you believe that Democrats are fucked in 2022, then
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: you can find evidence.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: For this, right?
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: This is the Latino take. This is the Larry Elder
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: did well take. This is the fact that recall was
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: on the ballot.
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: That's a take.
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: If you are desperately looking for reasons to show that
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: Democrats are not fucked in 2022, then you can also
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: find that evidence here. And look, you and I have
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: spent hours on this podcast digging into the most minute
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: details of low turnout special elections.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: I think we even– You know, I consider it a
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: fun hobby of mine. Yes.
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: I think we once spent a lot of time back
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: in 2017 on a state senate race in Oklahoma.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah. That's embarrassing for us. That's embarrassing.
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: No, I take it as a point of pride, actually.
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: So it's sort of disingenuous to say there are no
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: lessons to be learned from the biggest state in the
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: country having a statewide election. But I think we should
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: just– there's like giant caution flag here. I think there's
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: nothing here that tells us something we didn't know yet.
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: No additional warning signs and nothing that suggests that the
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: problems we had in 2020 don't still exist.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: I was going to say, if the lesson from the
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: recall is that nothing much has changed in the national
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: political environment since 2020, that's an important lesson. It doesn't
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: mean that much has changed, but it's good to know
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: where the national political environment is right now. And I
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: think you can learn that a little bit from what
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: happened in California. So it's obviously clear that a lot
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: of people, even some reporters, don't get how easy it
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: is to force a recall election here in California. Again,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: you can try to recall a governor for any reason,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: and the number of signatures you need is just 12%
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: of all the people who voted in the last election,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: which in this case was a little less than 1.5
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: million people. So it seems, Dan, like while Democrats still
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: have a Democratic governor and veto-proof majorities in the California
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: state legislature, they should change this ridiculous recall provision that
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: cost taxpayers $ 276 million. That's how much this race costs.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: How do they go about doing that?
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: Well, John.
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: It's not easy because it's in the Constitution. So there
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: are several ways to do it. The legislators can refer
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: an amendment to the Constitution and put it on next
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: year's ballot. They can create an independent constitutional commission, which
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: opens up a whole can of worms. They can offer
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: specific changes, but everything they do is going to require
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: the people of California to vote on it because it's
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: in the Constitution. So this is not something where tomorrow
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: you can go in and just fix it or make
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: it go away. So there have been a bunch of
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: different proposals about how to reform it that are floating around.
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: One of them is to create a reason, sort of
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: like you have to have corruption or some other reason
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: to put something like that on the ballot. Some is
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: to raise the threshold. One idea is to make it
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: illegal to pay signature gatherers to do it, to make
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: it more of a grassroots thing to do.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: The one that I find most compelling.
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: Is a governor could be recalled, but if the recall
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: measure passes, then the lieutenant governor becomes governor.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: I agree. That was the same thing. I thought the
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: same thing. I was like, oh, just do that. That's
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: so much better.
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: Right, because then at least– like obviously that's better for
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: Democrats in a state where Republicans haven't won a statewide
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: election in potentially this century.
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: Or I take that back, in the last decade or so.
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: But at least then the person who becomes governor would
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: be someone who had won a plurality of the voters
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: in a regularly called election as opposed to someone who
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: gets a tiny fraction of voters in a low turnout election.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: That's not a partisan thing. That's fair for Republicans, too.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: If there's a Republican governor with a Republican lieutenant governor
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: and Democrats get angry and just want to recall them,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: then you'll think twice because then the lieutenant governor becomes governor.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: It's just it's a good provision. It should be in there.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: It's like impeachment, right? The vice president becomes president.
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Except when Republicans try to impeach Joe Biden, Kamala Harris,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: all of the cabinet members and Nancy Pelosi. if they
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: win in 2022, which will probably happen, I'm sure.
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: President, well, they wouldn't even have to, well, that depends
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: on whether we have the House or not, I guess.
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: If Nancy Pelosi's in line of succession, then we have
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: no impeachment problems.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Okay, with all the caveats that we just laid out
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: on learning lessons, are there any lessons that we'll talk
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: about both parties can take away from this recall. Let's
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: start with the Democrats. Anything we can learn from Newsom's
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: campaign and the way he campaigned that might help Democratic
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: candidates win in much tougher districts in 2022? Yeah, I think.
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: Like once again, imperfect laboratory to run this test, but
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: there's a very clear math issue here that's a problem
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: for Republicans, opportunity for Democrats, which is the majority of
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: Americans are vaccinated. Those vaccinated Americans are quite angry at
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: the unvaccinated people for continuing to make this pandemic a
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: problem in their lives. And so making a direct appeal
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: to vaccinated Americans, Republicans and Democrats, building sort of a
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: coalition of the vaccinated, is a way to go on
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: offense on COVID. Because Republicans have been arguing against mostly
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: Democratic measures to protect people from COVID from the very beginning.
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: It is only both in this election, some in Virginia,
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: and Joe Biden as recently as last week, beginning to
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: make a much more forceful case for our policies, why
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: they work, and the role Republicans have played in keeping
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: that unvaccinated number up high, where I think there's political power.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: And so that worked here. Could Newsom have won without it? Probably.
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: But I think it does show that that is a
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: model that could be adopted by other people in states
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: less Democratic than California.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: I think the other big lesson from here is a
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: fundamental lesson in politics. When you are a challenger, you
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: want to make the race about the incumbent. When you
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: are an incumbent, you want to make the race not
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: a referendum, but a choice, right? This is Joe Biden's line.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Don't compare me to the almighty. Compare me to the alternative.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: And Gavin Newsom in the last several weeks did not
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: run only or even mostly on his record. He did
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: not just talk about all the great things he did
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: for California. He talked about Larry Elder. He made it
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: a choice between himself and Larry Elder and Larry Elder's
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: crazy quotes, his crazy policies, all the harmful things he
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: would do to California. And I think Democrats heading into
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: 2022 have to be crystal clear about the consequences of
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: a Republican majority in Congress and what they would do
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: and not just talk about Trump.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: So that's part of it, because they're all very Trumpy
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: these days, all these Republicans. But you have to clearly
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: communicate to voters that the choices between Joe Biden, the
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: Democrats and all the good stuff they've done and anti-vax, anti-mask,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: anti-democracy Republicans, whatever you want to whatever the message is
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: about them. But you have to really clearly lay out
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: the choice in the election between the two parties and
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: not just not just run on your record. OK, how
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: about Republicans? Do you think a non Trumpy candidate could
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: have done any better than Larry Elder? Kevin Faulconer, the
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: more moderate former mayor of San Diego, only ended up
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: with nine percent among all the recall candidates.
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: I mean, I know I put this question in the
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: outline originally, but it's sort of a trick question, which
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: is more moderate candidates, particularly more moderate Republican candidates tend
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: to win. particularly in states that are less Republican.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: But it's also impossible. It can't happen.
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: Kevin Falconer cannot win the equivalent of a Republican primary.
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: That's not what Republicans want. It always ends with Larry Elder, right?
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: Just like the 2016 campaign was always going to end
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: with Donald Trump. And that is going to, you know,
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: with some, there might be a couple of very local
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: exceptions in these 22 primaries, but take the most Trumpy
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: MAGA-esque candidate, and that is the person who is almost
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: certainly going to win the primary.
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: In 2022.
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: And so like, yeah, it would be great if I'm
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: sure for the Republicans, like, yes, we could run this
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: moderate who had some appeal Democrats, but that just can't happen.
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: Like you to have that happen, you need to live
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: in alternative timeline with an alternative Republican party.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: You nominate Larry Elder or you, you, you coalesce behind
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: Larry Elder. Like this is what you're going to get, right? Play,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: play stupid games, win stupid prizes. This is their party
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: right now. But look, I don't know if like clearly
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: Kevin Faulconer, who was a moderate Republican, couldn't have won
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: the whole thing.
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: He's only pulling nine percent among the recall candidates. But
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: even here in California in 2020, you know, the Republicans
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: were able to nominate some less crazy Republicans for some
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: of these House districts that they won. Right. They nominated
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Michelle Steele, Young Kim. They won the districts held by
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Harley Roda. and Gil Cisneros, right? These were, they're still Republicans.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: They still have an awful record. We're still going to
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: fight hard to beat them in 2022. But they were
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: not as Trumpy as some of the other Republicans. So
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: it is possible that if this party, you know, if
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: a couple more moderate Republicans sneak through these primaries, that
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: they could win some of these tough districts. But it
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: doesn't look like a lot of them are going to
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: win these primaries, at least from where I'm sitting.
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: There's an important caveat here in California, which is we
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: have a jungle primary.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, that's right. That's right. I was wondering how
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: they got through.
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: Or in the case of Mike Garcia, they just pretend
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: to be moderate and then they vote to overturn the
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: election when they get to Washington.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: Right, which is something we should remind people in 2022.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: One tradition that Republicans seem to have carried on from
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: 2020 is casting doubt on the integrity of the election.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Before Election Day in California, Larry Elder said that there
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: may be shenanigans like there were in 2020, is what
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: he said. And he also repeated the big lie. Donald
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: Trump himself said, came out and said that the election
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: was rigged. A bunch of right-wing pundits said the same thing.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: It sure seems like this is going to be the
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Republican plan for 2022 and 2024 in races that are
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: going to be much closer than this one. What do
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: we do about that?
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: In 2026, in 2028, and 2030. This is it.
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: This is the world we live in as long as
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: the Republican Party continues to appeal to this shrinking.
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: Radical minority.
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: And Fox and Facebook continue to pickle the brains of
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: large portions of the American populace.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: And that's where we are.
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: I mean, the California lesson is one of those super
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: helpful lessons, like win by 28 points.
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: That's one way to avoid the problem.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they didn't call the election rigged after they lost.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: 28 points is a hard one to swallow, even for
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: the crazies.
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: Right. And if the polls had been correct in 2020,
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: then yes, Donald Trump still would have said it was sold.
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: I mean, let's not forget Donald Trump said the 2016
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: election was rigged and he won that one. So they're
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: going to do it. Just the salience of it and
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: the power of it goes down if we win by
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: a lot. That is a completely unhelpful piece of advice
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: because everyone wants to win every election by a lot.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: This is sort of just where we are.
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: And it's really going to be incumbent on media outlets,
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: social media platforms, other influencers and stakeholders, and even the
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: tiny handful of Republicans like Romney and others to speak
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: out against this. It's sort of a bulwark against this
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: dangerous craziness.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, because right now Trump is going state by state,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: swing state by swing state, and trying to replace election
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: officials in those states who are not Trumpy enough and
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: who basically who refused to or who did refuse to
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: help him overturn the 2020 election. And so if it's
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: a Republican that wasn't sufficiently loyal, he's trying to get
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: rid of them. If there's a Democrat in the seat,
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: like in Arizona with Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, trying
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: to get rid of that person. And so he is
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: trying to put election officials in place in these key
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: states that will, when the time comes, overturn the election
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: for him. It's very, very scary. And we should speak
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: up about it and protect those election officials at all costs.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: And also, you know, I know that there are some
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: new provisions in this new compromise voting rights bill that
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Joe Manchin and crew put together that actually go to
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: some of these election integrity issues to actually sort of
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: protect election officials, nonpartisan election officials, to make sure that
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: Republicans can't just get rid of them. But again, that
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: only passes if the filibuster goes or is reformed. So
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: we shall see.
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: It's so funny that they had to put those provisions
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: in the bill to stop the Republicans from overturning the election.
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: But Joe Manchin's position is he needs Republicans to support
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: the provision designed to stop them from stealing an election.
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: It's like enlisting criminals to protect your house from being burglarized.
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: It's an insane idea.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: It makes me so mad. I just I have to
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: take a couple of deep breaths and I'll do that
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: during the break. When we come back, Dan and I
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: will be joined by Congresswoman Katie Porter of California, who
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: will talk to us about the latest budget negotiations in Congress.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the negotiations in Congress over
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: the president's economic plan. On Wednesday, the House of Representatives
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: finished turning Biden's Build Back Better agenda into roughly 2,600
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: pages of actual legislative text that includes progressive policies on
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: health care, education, immigration, climate, taxes, and more. Here to
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: talk to us about what's in, what's out, and what's next,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: one of my favorite members of Congress from right here
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: in California, Katie Porter. Welcome back.
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: Thank you for having me.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: So what in this bill are you... most proud and
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: excited about, and what are you most annoyed and disappointed about?
• 29:09
  Speaker 5: Well, the first question about annoyed and disappointed is always
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: easier for someone like me who like lives for the
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: oversight and lives for the, you know, this is what
• 29:17
  Speaker 5: you're doing wrong moment.
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: So let me start there.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: The drug pricing negotiation piece of this must come back in.
• 29:25
  Speaker 5: And so yesterday, earlier this week in an energy and
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: commerce committee, the effort to allow Medicare to negotiate drug
• 29:32
  Speaker 5: prices was was voted down and was taken out of
• 29:35
  Speaker 5: the budget reconciliation package. Without that, not only do seniors
• 29:40
  Speaker 5: and Americans more broadly continue to get ripped off by
• 29:43
  Speaker 5: big pharma, but we lose a big chunk of the
• 29:47
  Speaker 5: revenue that we need to pay for other important, both
• 29:51
  Speaker 5: healthcare and investments.
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: So without allowing.
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: Medicare to negotiate drug prices, It gets very difficult to
• 29:59
  Speaker 5: do things, for example, like make sure that Medicare is
• 30:02
  Speaker 5: paying for dental and vision care. It's difficult to lower
• 30:05
  Speaker 5: the age of Medicare from 65 to 60, which we
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: know would literally save lives. Cancer diagnoses jump at age 65.
• 30:14
  Speaker 5: because people have been putting off screenings and care from
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: 60 to 64. So that is a huge change we
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: need to make. We need to let Medicare negotiate drug prices.
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: Democrats and Republicans ran on this. President Trump even ran
• 30:27
  Speaker 5: on this.
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: That has to get put back in.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: I'm glad that you brought that up because we are
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: outraged by that as well. Like what's going on with
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: your colleagues, Scott Peters, Kathleen Rice, Kurt Schrader, they all
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: killed the provision. What are the chances that you think
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: you can get it back in? I know that you
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: guys only have like three votes to spare in the House.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: And A couple of them, one of them said that,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: you know, one of the problems is that this provision
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: doesn't have full support in the Senate either. And they
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: have some alternatives. I'm guessing the alternatives are probably garbage. Like,
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: what do you think is going to end up in
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: the final package here? What are the chances of it
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: getting back in? Yeah.
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: So one of the Mr. Peters, Scott Peters from California,
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: has an alternative. It only raises about one fifth of
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: the revenue. So it doesn't capture very much cost savings.
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: So it might address some of the most egregious things.
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: It does some things, but it doesn't do what we
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: should want for our healthcare system, which is to have
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: price negotiation because otherwise people are being ripped off and
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: we as taxpayers, whether we're on Medicare or not, are
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: all being ripped off. I think in Scott Peter's case,
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: I mean, he represents a very heavily life sciences district.
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: In San Diego.
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: He's been sort of a champion on sort of fighting back,
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: pushing back against anything that he thinks might weaken the
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: profits and revenues and sort of his view of what
• 31:45
  Speaker 5: we need in terms of that life science industry. I
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: think there's much less of a clear explanation for Kathleen
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: Rice or Kurt Schrader. You know, Kurt Schrader was one
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: of the nine people who tried, you know, who signed
• 32:00
  Speaker 5: on to this letter and didn't want to, you know,
• 32:02
  Speaker 5: he's been pushing back against the $ 3. 5 trillion package for
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: a while now. And so I'm not sure how you
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: move him. You know, I think Kathleen is a little
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: bit more of a question mark from New York. She's
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: talked about drug pricing.
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: Before she ran on it. And so I hope that
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: she comes around.
• 32:21
  Speaker 5: As a general matter, John, I don't think we can
• 32:23
  Speaker 5: let what the Senate will do change what we in
• 32:26
  Speaker 5: the House do. I mean, if there is a point
• 32:28
  Speaker 5: to having bicameral body of legislature, it's.
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: That we do different things.
• 32:33
  Speaker 5: It's that we let those, the differences in representation do
• 32:37
  Speaker 5: their work. And so California, for example, has a much
• 32:40
  Speaker 5: bigger voice in the House because we have 53 members
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: and we have two senators and that's by design. And
• 32:46
  Speaker 5: so I think the House ought to create the package
• 32:49
  Speaker 5: that it thinks Americans need. The Senate can do what
• 32:53
  Speaker 5: it thinks Americans need and we'll come together in conference
• 32:56
  Speaker 5: and see where we land.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: Dan, does voting against cheaper prescription drugs seem like smart
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: politics to you? I know you wrote a message box
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: on this this morning.
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: You would have to look very hard to find a
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: more self-defeating political decision than killing this provision, right? There's
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: a new Data for Progress, Center for American Progress Action
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: Fund pullout today which shows that that 73% of all voters,
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: 6 in 10 Republicans support this.
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: There are issues that people support.
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: Then there are issues that cause people to rethink their
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: political calculations to be more or less likely to vote.
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: Of all the issues we've looked at this election cycle,
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: this one is one of the biggest motivators for Democrats.
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: Even 3 in 10 Republicans would be more likely to
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: vote for a Democrat who supported this provision. This is
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: such a political slam dunk on a broad point. Congresswoman
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: Porter makes an incredibly important point that the option here
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: is support seniors and all Americans over prescription drug companies.
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: It's also getting prescription drug companies to help pay for
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: incredibly popular initiatives like climate change and elder care and
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: child care and putting all of that aside to side
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: with the industry that in Gallup's poll finds is one
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: of the least popular industries in the country, only surpassed
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: by the oil and gas industry.
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: So it makes no sense.
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: To be political.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: Uh, Congresswoman, I want to talk about taxes for a second.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: I know there's a lot of provisions in there that
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: would make, uh, the wealthiest Americans and big corporations pay
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: their fair share. Help me understand what's going on with
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: the state and local tax deduction, which is currently capped
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: at $ 10, 000. Brookings Institute says repealing that cap would give
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: the top 1% an average tax cut of over $ 35, 000
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: while the middle class would get an average tax cut
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: of about $ 37. So why repeal the cap on, on
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: state and local deductions?
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: So, um, First, let me just make sure everyone knows
• 34:40
  Speaker 5: this is not currently in the Ways and Means text
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: that came out. So we're working, I'm working, I'm committed
• 34:46
  Speaker 5: to actually pulling, like repealing this state and local tax deduction.
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna explain why, but it's not currently there. So
• 34:53
  Speaker 5: this is one of the other top things that I'm
• 34:55
  Speaker 5: working on. I think the easiest way to think about
• 34:58
  Speaker 5: this is start with first principles. The whole point of
• 35:03
  Speaker 5: a progressive taxation system is that after you, pay for
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: the things you must have, like food. This is why
• 35:11
  Speaker 5: we have a standard deduction, why we have an exemption
• 35:14
  Speaker 5: per person. After you pay your taxes, your Medicare, whatever,
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: what you have left is your taxable income, and the
• 35:21
  Speaker 5: federal government taxes you on that. If you are forced
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: to pay part of your income to the state where
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: you live, you don't have that income left over to,
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: it's not available to you. And so the federal government
• 35:37
  Speaker 5: ought to tax you on what you have left after
• 35:39
  Speaker 5: you've paid your mandatory expenses and that includes state taxes.
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: The second principle is even easier to understand. No American
• 35:48
  Speaker 5: with the same income level should owe the same earning power,
• 35:52
  Speaker 5: the same salary, should owe more federal tax just because
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: of where they live. Can you imagine if we, that's
• 35:59
  Speaker 5: the system we've got now. Because President Trump, when he
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: capped that state and local tax deduction, upset, disregarded, abandoned
• 36:08
  Speaker 5: a principle of our federal taxation system that had been
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: part of it from the get-go, which is that what
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: you owe to your localities and to your state, the
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: places that you are closest to as a taxpayer and
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: most able to control the expenses, those are considered mandatory deductions.
• 36:24
  Speaker 5: They come out, you're taxed on whatever is left. And
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: the state and local tax deduction upsets that. Now, with
• 36:31
  Speaker 5: regard to the fact there are some very, very wealthy
• 36:34
  Speaker 5: taxpayers who have huge homes and therefore they have huge
• 36:39
  Speaker 5: state taxes, property taxes, for example, on those homes. We
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: could think about some kind of cap to capture that.
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: And I would be open to having that conversation. What
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: I'm not open to is anyone suggesting that the current
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: system is fair. This $ 10, 000 was not based in reality.
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: It really punishes Californians. It punishes New Yorkers. It punishes Massachusetts.
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: It punishes New Jersey. And do you know why? Because
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: we pay for things in our state. We pay our
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: teachers well. We pay for public health. We pay for
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: first responders. We pay for climate programs. We do all
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: the things that we want states to be doing as
• 37:20
  Speaker 5: a federal government to care for their citizens. The last
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: thing the federal government should be doing is discouraging that
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: through this kind of tax system.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was sort of railing against this on another
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: pod because I know that a lot of the benefits
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: go to sort of the wealthiest Americans. And a lot
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: of people tweeted at me and said, well, I'm pretty
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: middle class and it's hitting me pretty hard, too. So
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: I do think like maybe 10,000 is too low as
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: a cap. But if you raise the cap just to
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: make sure that super rich people aren't getting a huge
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: tax cut here, that seems like it would be pretty important. Yeah.
• 37:50
  Speaker 5: I mean, you could think about some kind of system.
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: And I mean, part of this is, look, you're a Californian,
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: a million dollar house in many of our communities is
• 38:00
  Speaker 5: not a fancy house and not a very big one.
• 38:04
  Speaker 5: And it's not to say that that isn't a million
• 38:05
  Speaker 5: dollar house, but guess what million dollar houses come with?
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: Million dollar mortgages.
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: And so people are paying a great deal of their house,
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: of their expenses on that mortgage. So I think we
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: can come up with something that addresses and prevents abuse.
• 38:21
  Speaker 5: And I think that's how we should be talking about it.
• 38:23
  Speaker 5: The principle is you should be able to deduct your
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: state and local taxes. Then what is the appropriate curb
• 38:31
  Speaker 5: to prevent any abuse in the tax system that we
• 38:34
  Speaker 5: need to put on it?
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: That's how we ought to be thinking about this.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Dan, negotiations over a bill this size are always going
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: to be messy. It does seem like we're getting even
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: more Democrats in disarray headlines than usual lately. How does
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: this compare to negotiations over the Recovery Act or the
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: Affordable Care Act? Any lessons from those fights?
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: I went back when I saw this question. I went
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: back and looked at some of the coverage from the
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: health care. battle in 2009, 2010, and it's actually quite similar.
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: Everything's a little more dramatic in the Twitter age. But
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: I think the lesson from that applied here is, one,
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: it's always going to be messy, particularly with margins this
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: narrow that Congressman Porter is dealing with, where we could
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: lose 35 Democrats and be fine back in those days.
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: But the lesson is how you pass something is almost
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: as important as what you pass. And so moving quickly,
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: trying to get this done Do it right, but do
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: it fast is much better because the longer it lingers,
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: the easier it is for sort of special interests, Republicans
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: and others to make hay of this and sort of
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: take the sheen off what is likely to be an
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: incredibly important, progressive, popular final product.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: Congresswoman, you talked about making sure that you don't let
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: what the Senate's going to do you know, affect too
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: much of what the house is going to do. What
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: do you do about a problem like Joe Manchin, who said,
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: I can only see one, 1.5 trillion. You guys are
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: at 3.5 trillion. Like how much, how much leverage do
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: you have here over the Joe Manchin's and Kirsten Sinema's
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: of the world?
• 40:01
  Speaker 5: Well, I think the important point is not how much
• 40:03
  Speaker 5: leverage I, Katie Porter have.
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: It's how much leverage we, the American.
• 40:07
  Speaker 5: People have, which is, all of it. We have all
• 40:11
  Speaker 5: of the leverage. We elected these people.
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: And if we don't like what we're doing, we should
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: blow them up.
• 40:18
  Speaker 5: And I say this to you as someone who represents
• 40:19
  Speaker 5: equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans and feels like I
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: get blown up pretty much on a daily basis by
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: about half of my constituents. And that's part of the job.
• 40:27
  Speaker 5: And it's part that makes me a better representative. So look,
• 40:30
  Speaker 5: I think that part of the issue with Senator Manchin
• 40:32
  Speaker 5: and Senator Sinema is they need to justify where they're.
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: Getting this number The numbers in the $ 3. 5 trillion bill
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: aren't random.
• 40:44
  Speaker 5: We didn't set out to say we want to spend X.
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: We said, what are the problems we're dealing with? What
• 40:51
  Speaker 5: does it take to prevent wildfires? Which would be so
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: much cheaper, by the way, than letting them burn and
• 40:55
  Speaker 5: trying to deal with a disaster. What are the dollars
• 40:58
  Speaker 5: that we need to be able to expand Medicare? What
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: do we need to do for childcare or paid family
• 41:04
  Speaker 5: leave so we can fix the problem of women's workforce
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: participation being at a 30-year low. So we built this
• 41:13
  Speaker 5: from what do the American people need? What can we
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: do to meet those needs? This is the package. They
• 41:19
  Speaker 5: seem to be saying.
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: You know, $ 1 million.
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: Seems big, or $ 1. 5 trillion seems too much, right? Well,
• 41:28
  Speaker 5: two things.
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: One, what are you going to cut?
• 41:31
  Speaker 5: Are you going to look at these pieces and say,
• 41:34
  Speaker 5: you know, we're just not going to do anything about
• 41:36
  Speaker 5: a huge chunk of our workforce being out of the workforce.
• 41:38
  Speaker 5: We're just not going to do anything about climate. We're
• 41:40
  Speaker 5: not going to do anything about prescription drugs. We're not
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: going to do anything about, right? The second piece is
• 41:46
  Speaker 5: the real question for me as someone who really cares
• 41:49
  Speaker 5: a lot about numbers, cares a lot about paying for things,
• 41:52
  Speaker 5: cares a lot about being fiscally smart is how are
• 41:57
  Speaker 5: we going to raise the revenue? So, It's not about
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: what the number of the spending is. It's about what
• 42:04
  Speaker 5: are we doing to pay for it and how are
• 42:06
  Speaker 5: those things in balance? So I think the real question
• 42:09
  Speaker 5: for me is about Joe Manchin is, is the problem
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: here that you don't want to tax corporations, that you
• 42:15
  Speaker 5: don't want to tax your corporate donors, that you don't
• 42:17
  Speaker 5: want to cut profits for pharmaceutical companies, for big pharma
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: by doing Medicare price negotiation?
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: Is that what this really is about?
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: Because I do think we ought to be having a
• 42:27
  Speaker 5: discussion about How are we going to raise revenue in
• 42:29
  Speaker 5: ways that keep our economy going while we're making these
• 42:32
  Speaker 5: investments in economic growth? And to be clear, the stuff
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: in the budget reconciliation bill is there because it is
• 42:40
  Speaker 5: part of President Biden's Build Back Better agenda. And it's
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: there to help us have a strong, stable, globally competitive economy.
• 42:48
  Speaker 5: If it's not meeting that test, strong, stable, globally competitive economy,
• 42:53
  Speaker 5: then I think we should listen to someone who's saying
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: this doesn't belong here. But that's not what Senator Manchin's saying.
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: He can't honestly tell me that making it possible for
• 43:02
  Speaker 5: more women to go to work and more parents of
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: young children to go to work won't increase our economic productivity.
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: So Speaker Pelosi promised a bunch of moderates in your
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: caucus that she would hold a vote on the bipartisan
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: infrastructure bill on September 27th. If by September 27th, there's
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: a vote on that bill and you don't have a
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: build back better bill that is good enough or ready,
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: Are you still prepared to vote down the bipartisan infrastructure
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: bill until you guys get the Build Back Better bill
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: that you want?
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah. First up, I just want to whip out the
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: whiteboard here.
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: Nine.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: Nine votes. moderates, does not equal a bunch, okay? Nine, nine,
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: eight and 10.
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: That's not a bunch.
• 43:47
  Speaker 5: So let's make sure the American people know we've got
• 43:49
  Speaker 5: 200 and plus 815, whoever Democrats, nine, 10, not a bunch.
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: It's a handful of people.
• 43:55
  Speaker 5: And I hope that they're rethinking their.
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: Commitment to what we need to do here.
• 44:02
  Speaker 5: Look, the bipartisan infrastructure package needs to pass and it will.
• 44:06
  Speaker 5: And the progressives have said from the very beginning, We
• 44:09
  Speaker 5: support this package.
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: We support infrastructure. It's creating good, high-paying jobs.
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: It, too, remember, as I said, the touchstone for me
• 44:16
  Speaker 5: is an investment that creates a strong, stable, globally competitive economy.
• 44:20
  Speaker 5: Infrastructure clearly meets that test. But that doesn't mean that's
• 44:24
  Speaker 5: the only thing we need to do. Right?
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: And so I.
• 44:28
  Speaker 5: Think what we've said is we're going to vote for
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: both of these bills. But they need to move in tandem.
• 44:34
  Speaker 5: And I don't think it is responsible for to pass
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: an infrastructure bill and say, oh, this is gonna create jobs.
• 44:42
  Speaker 5: At the same time, we know that women's workforce participation
• 44:46
  Speaker 5: is at a 30 year low and that childcare is
• 44:49
  Speaker 5: a huge reason why. Are we not creating jobs for
• 44:52
  Speaker 5: all Americans? Yes, we should be. So that means that
• 44:56
  Speaker 5: we need to address all of the different things that
• 44:58
  Speaker 5: are holding back Americans from being able to take those
• 45:01
  Speaker 5: good paying jobs, from being able to go back into
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: the workforce. So I think the plan here remains And
• 45:07
  Speaker 5: the speaker policy has been very, very clear about this
• 45:09
  Speaker 5: from the beginning. We're going to do these two things.
• 45:12
  Speaker 5: We're going to do them together. They are all part
• 45:14
  Speaker 5: of President Biden's agenda.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: Dan, if you're watching this unfold from the White House,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: what do you do to help land this plane if
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: you're Joe Biden?
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: I think it's.
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: Follow the advice that Congressman Porter just gave, which is
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: stop talking about the cost of the bill. It is
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: not 3.5 trade. The cost of the bill is zero dollars, right?
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: It is what is talk about the things in the
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: bill that are paid for by what happened to be
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: incredibly popular initiatives. And so it's not, we're not spending.
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: We are, it is $ 0.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: We should talk about that way. We are investing. Yes.
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: There we go.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: Investing is much better. Two more questions I have for
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: you that I thought about while reading the news recently. First,
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: I saw that Pfizer CEOs said they expect to apply
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: for FDA approval of a COVID vaccine for five to
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: 11 year olds in early October and a vaccine for
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: kids between six months and five years in November. You
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: wrote a letter to the FDA last month with Congressman
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: Khanna asking for a briefing about how fast they'd be
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: able to review these applications. You get any answers?
• 46:21
  Speaker 5: Well, we got a very short letter back, but I
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: believe we are getting our briefings.
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: Good.
• 46:26
  Speaker 5: I have to look at my calendar, but I believe
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: that's scheduled for next week. And look, I think everybody,
• 46:32
  Speaker 5: I hope everybody understands that the FDA has a process.
• 46:35
  Speaker 5: We want it to follow that process. We want them
• 46:37
  Speaker 5: to look at the research and look at the science.
• 46:39
  Speaker 5: We want to make sure this vaccine is safe and effective,
• 46:42
  Speaker 5: but it will be more effective and we will all
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: be safer from COVID if they are building trust in
• 46:49
  Speaker 5: that process by communicating what the steps are. And so parents,
• 46:53
  Speaker 5: back to school comes, you know, something that every child
• 46:56
  Speaker 5: knows acutely. Back to school comes once a year. And
• 46:59
  Speaker 5: so it's my favorite day of the year, by the way.
• 47:01
  Speaker 5: I mean, screw Christmas.
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: Back to school is like the best day of the year.
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: And so we kind.
• 47:06
  Speaker 5: Of blew past that window as a moment, not only
• 47:10
  Speaker 5: to potentially vaccinate, but to communicate with parents about the
• 47:14
  Speaker 5: steps and the process. So I think now what we're
• 47:16
  Speaker 5: asking the FDA to do is just to lay out
• 47:18
  Speaker 5: a little bit more what's going to happen once Pfizer
• 47:21
  Speaker 5: makes that submission and what the steps will be. For example,
• 47:26
  Speaker 5: are they going to really foresee potentially, will they be
• 47:29
  Speaker 5: evaluating whether or not these shots can be given at
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: pharmacies versus having to go into a pediatrician's office? That
• 47:36
  Speaker 5: might not sound like a big deal to some people.
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: You've never tried to get three consecutive back-to-back appointments at
• 47:42
  Speaker 5: a pediatrician's.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: Office like I have. It's hard.
• 47:45
  Speaker 5: And so the administration here, I have some questions about that.
• 47:48
  Speaker 5: I have some questions about You know how this is
• 47:51
  Speaker 5: going to fit. I think this is going to fit
• 47:53
  Speaker 5: right in with other childhood vaccinations, but those are the
• 47:55
  Speaker 5: kinds of questions we want to get answered with the
• 47:57
  Speaker 5: goal of just making sure that parents are as prepared
• 48:01
  Speaker 5: as they can be and have the information they need
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: to make those decisions so we can get this vaccination
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: moving quickly and we don't have the long delay and
• 48:09
  Speaker 5: the hesitancy.
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: We try to reduce that as much as we can
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: with information.
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: Well, let us know what you hear. Dan and I
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: both have children now that that are not vaccinated yet.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: So that's very exciting news.
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: I got one, too.
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's rough. The other I was also thinking
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: about you when I read these Wall Street Journal stories
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: about these internal Facebook documents that they got a hold of.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: The latest one latest story quotes an internal Facebook memo
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: that says an algorithm change they made is, quote, a
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: liability to. that has, quote, had an unhealthy side effect
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: on politics and news content by amplifying, quote, misinformation, toxicity,
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: and violent content. That's a Facebook internal memo. Any plans
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: to haul our good pal Mark Zuckerberg before Congress for
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: another round of questions?
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: Oh, hell yes.
• 48:55
  Speaker 5: The second I saw this, I texted my legislative director
• 48:59
  Speaker 5: and I was like, blow this up.
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: So it's really.
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: Important that we get these kinds of answers.
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: One of the things about COVID that I think for
• 49:07
  Speaker 5: me has been a little bit of a challenge, something
• 49:11
  Speaker 5: I think about is the pandemic has exposed a lot
• 49:14
  Speaker 5: of the problems that we need to solve in our society.
• 49:16
  Speaker 5: It's opened up some new solutions to some of the
• 49:18
  Speaker 5: problems we've had. Work from home, for example, telehealth, making
• 49:22
  Speaker 5: people show up for appointments that they used to skip.
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: So there are some good things coming out of it.
• 49:27
  Speaker 5: But one of the bad things is, and I'd be
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: curious actually to hear what, you know, I know you
• 49:30
  Speaker 5: guys ask the questions and I answer them. I'd actually
• 49:33
  Speaker 5: be curious to hear what Dan thinks about this. But
• 49:36
  Speaker 5: not that I don't care what you think too, John,
• 49:38
  Speaker 5: I do.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: No, believe me.
• 49:40
  Speaker 5: COVID has kind of distracted Congress, not from solving a
• 49:46
  Speaker 5: bunch of problems, but the oversight mission. Every time we
• 49:50
  Speaker 5: do a huge legislative package, which we've had to do
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: several times, the oversight and the investigation tends to sort
• 49:58
  Speaker 5: of slow down. And so I am very eager to
• 50:01
  Speaker 5: get Mark Zuckerberg back in. I have lots of questions
• 50:04
  Speaker 5: for pharmaceutical companies still. I have lots of questions for
• 50:07
  Speaker 5: the IRS commissioner.
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: I have lots. I mean, just give me more witnesses
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: because I'm ready.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: Dan, what do you think about that? Should we investigate
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: more before they start investigating us after the midterms?
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, yes.
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: You could sell premium tickets to a Katie Porter, Mark
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: Zuckerberg exchange at an oversight hearing. But when I saw
• 50:29
  Speaker 4: that story, the first thing I thought of was Philip
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: Morris documents in the 80s and the very famous and
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: important hearings with the tobacco CEOs. And social media is
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: in some way, especially when it comes to addictive.
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: Preying on children, that problem all over again.
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: And so I love the idea that Congressman Porter wants
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: to blow this up and really get into it because
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: it is affecting everyone and we do not know enough.
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: Last question. In the last segment, Dan and I gave
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: our takes on the California recall. You got any takeaways,
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: any lessons from that?
• 51:01
  Speaker 5: Well, I'm mostly just relieved. I mean, we have a
• 51:03
  Speaker 5: governor who believes in science. We have a governor who
• 51:06
  Speaker 5: who believes in climate change. We have a governor who
• 51:08
  Speaker 5: doesn't seemingly hate women like Larry Elder. I mean, this
• 51:13
  Speaker 5: is a very, very good outcome for Californians. It's a
• 51:16
  Speaker 5: good outcome for our economy. It's a good outcome for
• 51:19
  Speaker 5: the people of California.
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: I will say, it.
• 51:23
  Speaker 5: Galvanized kind of local Republican activists and gave them a
• 51:27
  Speaker 5: real sort of daily mission in life for the last year.
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: I do think that.
• 51:32
  Speaker 5: Sets us up to have to work very, very quickly
• 51:35
  Speaker 5: in these competitive California House seats.
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: And so, you know, personally, I'm very, very happy that, and.
• 51:41
  Speaker 5: For my constituents, Republican and Democrat alike, I'm very happy
• 51:45
  Speaker 5: that Governor Newsom is going to continue to lead California.
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: I do think it sort of puts us to.
• 51:50
  Speaker 5: A challenge in terms of creating the groundswell of engagement
• 51:55
  Speaker 5: among Democrats and among independents and among sensible Republicans to
• 51:59
  Speaker 5: kind of equal the groundswell of the Larry Elder Supporting
• 52:03
  Speaker 5: Republican Party.
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah. If we don't have if we don't have Democratic
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: enthusiasm in 2022, we don't we don't have a chance.
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: So that's that's one lesson that we took away as well. Congresswoman,
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not.
• 52:14
  Speaker 5: Worried because I know that I can count on Pod
• 52:17
  Speaker 5: Save America to come to Irvine or Tustin and do
• 52:21
  Speaker 5: a big production and knock on some doors.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: Hey, all of that. stuff our last hbo show in
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: irvine that was of course we'll be back there again
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: we love her that was the first.
• 52:33
  Speaker 5: Time i met you and tommy and i was thinking
• 52:35
  Speaker 5: about this the other day it was sort of right
• 52:38
  Speaker 5: toward the very end of the campaign and you're tired
• 52:40
  Speaker 5: and you're worn out and you guys were like hey
• 52:42
  Speaker 5: so nice to meet you like how's it going and
• 52:45
  Speaker 5: i said something like i can't wait for this campaign
• 52:48
  Speaker 5: to be over so i can just start fixing shit
• 52:50
  Speaker 5: and helping people.
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: I remember that. Oh, my God.
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: That's how I still feel. So, yeah, I'm looking forward
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: to revisiting that.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: We were knocking on doors with Joe Biden in your district.
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: And that was before Joe Biden was ever a presidential candidate.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: And look where we all ended up. We're still doing
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: this pod. You're in Congress and Joe Biden's in the
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: White House. Congresswoman Katie Porter, thank you so much for
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: joining us as always. And please come back anytime.
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: Thank you so much.
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: All right, so on Monday's pod, we talked about how
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: Trump is edging closer to a second run for president.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: This week, we got a couple fresh reminders as to
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: why that's probably not such a great idea. Excerpts leaked
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: from the new book by Bob Woodward and Robert Costa
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: of the Washington Post called Peril, part of which takes
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: us inside the final days of the Trump administration. There's
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: also a book out next month from Melania Trump's former
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: chief of staff, Stephanie Grisham, called I'll Take Your Questions Now, which...
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: I imagine is an ironic title. Uh, since Grisham was
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: the only white house press secretary in history to never
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: actually hold a press briefing.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: It's just, it's so funny.
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: It's like, that was that title is just a fuck
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: you to everyone.
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: I think, I.
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: Think that is being a white house press secretary who
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: didn't do a press briefing.
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: It's just so funny. Cause that's the job. It's in
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: the title.
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: What else are you doing? What literally, what else are
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: you doing? Um, Anyway, if you're like us and want
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: to know what's in these books without actually reading them,
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: we got you covered. Here are the top five excerpts,
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: sure to keep you up at night as you think
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: about 2024. Number five. Donald Trump pressures Mike Pence to
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: overturn the results of the election during a meeting in
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: the Oval Office on January 5th, saying, quote, Wouldn't it
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: be almost cool to have that power? Pence says, No,
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: I've done everything I could and then some to find
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: a way around this. It's simply not possible. Then Trump
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: loses it and says, No, no, no. You don't understand, Mike.
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: You can do this. I don't want to be your
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: friend anymore if you don't do this. Does that sound
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: like Donald Trump to you? I don't want to be
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: your friend anymore.
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: I mean, with all due respect to the legendary Bob
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: Woodward and the very excellent Bob Costa, you people are
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: mailing it in here. That is the least believable dialogue
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: I have ever heard. I am confident some known liar
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: told them that.
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: But come on. It's not like we haven't been listening to.
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: Donald Trump blather on for decades in this country. If
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: you want to create Trumpian dialogue, there's plenty of opportunities.
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: It is so pitiful. I'm embarrassed for everyone involved.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: Did you listen to Pod Save the World this week
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: when Tommy and Ben talked about all this?
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: Yes. And I have a lot of thoughts on that.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: Have you had soup from Bob Woodward? No. Did Bob
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: Woodward give you any soup?
• 55:45
  Speaker 5: No.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: I cannot believe Ben did that.
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: For those of you who haven't heard the episode yet,
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: even though I know you all have already listened because
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: you're all worldos, Tommy asked Ben if Ben has ever
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: gotten the Woodward treatment. So talk to Bob Woodward for
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: one of these books. And Ben did reveal that Bob
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: Woodward invited him for lunch and then made it like
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: a three or four course meal that took a long
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: time so he could get as much out of Ben
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: as possible. And served him some soup, some hot soup
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: for lunch.
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: Do you know what, for a democratic communications professional, what
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: the equivalent of going to Bob Woodward's house is? It's
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: a democratic presidential candidate putting a helmet on and getting
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: in a tank. It is the one thing you know
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: you're not supposed to do. Because in the 90s, George
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: Stephanopoulos famously went to dinner at Bob Woodward's house. And
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: I don't know whether he had soup or not, but
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: because he did that, and then when Bob Woodward's book,
• 56:36
  Speaker 4: I think it was called The Agenda, came out that
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: was very anti-Clinton, The fact that Stephanopoulos had gone to
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: his house became a huge problem for him within the
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: White House. The Clintons were incredibly mad at him. He
• 56:46
  Speaker 4: was demoted in some ways. The one thing they tell
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: you is if Bob Woodward wants to meet with you,
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: you meet with him in your office and you let
• 56:54
  Speaker 4: everyone see him walk into your office so that everyone
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: knows that it's.
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: On the level. Yeah. Ben obviously did not talk to
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: me before he ate the soup, but that was, I
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: heard that.
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: And I, if I had soup in my mouth, Woodward's
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: or otherwise I would have spit it out. Cause that
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: was wild.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: I'm so glad that I'd never, I don't think I
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: was ever asked, which is great. I was not important
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: enough to be asked to, um, to sit down with
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: Bob Woodward thing, but I wouldn't have done that anyway.
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: I would've been scared shitless to talk to Bob.
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: I had to, I had so many meetings with Bob
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: Woodward in my office for all to see. And then
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: I would send a note to various people above me
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: on the food chain, indicating what he had asked me about.
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: Like, Paper trail the shit out of that thing. Let
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: me tell you.
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: All right. Number four, Trump loses his shit at then
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who had just announced publicly that
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: he opposed invoking the Insurrection Act in response to the
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: Black Lives Matter protests near the White House. Trump reportedly said, quote,
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: You took away my authority. You're not the president. I'm
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: the goddamn president. He then turned to the rest of
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: his team and said, you're all fucked up. Everybody, you're
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: all fucked. Every one of you is fucked up. Now
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: that sounds more like Trump.
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: That, that, that I can believe.
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: That is terrifying. By the way, the fact that Trump
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: really was that close to invoking the insurrection act and
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: sending federal troops in to stop protesters, peaceful protesters is,
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: is fucking terrifying. Because there's a lot of Republicans, a
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: lot of other people, when that was happening, be like, oh,
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: everyone's exaggerating. Is he really going to do the Insurrection Act?
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: Probably not. Everyone calm down. No, it sounds like he
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: was pretty fucking close. And it's a good thing that
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: Esper went out there and said something.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Mark Esper, brief hero for a day.
• 58:34
  Speaker 5: I guess.
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the bar for all these heroes is fucking on
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: the ground. All right, number three. This one is from
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: Stephanie Grisham's book, who says that on January 6th, she
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: texted Melania... do you want to tweet that peaceful protests
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: are the right of every American, but there is no
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: place for lawlessness and violence? Melania responded a minute later, no. Now,
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: because Politico Playbook is apparently Melania's new press shop, they
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: led the newsletter the other day with a few text
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: messages from Grisham that were provided by a senior Trump
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: aide where she seemed sympathetic to overturning the results of
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: the election, at least in her home state of Arizona.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: Hard to know which set of miserable liars to side
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: with here, huh?
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: Like, yeah, they're all lying. I think Stephanie Grisham's lying.
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: I think Melania's lying. I think the people talking about Melania, everyone,
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: they're all liars.
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: They're all bad people. That's all we need to know.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: I would definitely skip the Grisham book.
• 59:25
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: With all stick with John Grisham, not Stephanie.
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.
• 59:32
  Speaker 4: Some people who think they're getting the firm and end
• 59:35
  Speaker 4: up with this, that would be embarrassing.
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: That's an, if that's, that's yeah, I would, I would
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: pass on that one. I'd, I'd wait for the movie. Um,
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: all right. Number two, the revelation from the woodwork book
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: that's getting the most attention involves, uh, Trump's handpicked chairman
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: of the joint chief of staff, uh, general Mark Milley. Apparently, uh,
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: This is very scary. Apparently, American intelligence showed that just
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: before the election, the Chinese government came to believe that
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: Trump would launch a military strike against China as an
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: excuse to seize emergency powers and stay in office, much
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: like Hitler's Reichstag moment. In response, Milley called his Chinese
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: counterpart to reassure him that Trump had no plans to
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: attack China and that the United States government wasn't collapsing, saying, quote,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: Things may look unsteady, but that's the nature of democracy,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: General Lee. We are 100% steady. Everything's fine. I do
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: like the everything's fine. It's just like Mark Milley is
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: the dog with the fire meme around him.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: Oh, the younger, more online crooked staff are going to.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: Throw something at this. It's a very old meme that
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: when I see it, I'm like, this joke has not
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: been funny for about three years. But anyway. So Milley
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: also reportedly, according to the Woodward book, guaranteed Pelosi that
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: he'd prevent any kind of, quote, illegal or crazy military
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: action from Trump, and then convene the top military commanders
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: to remind them that no one should launch a nuclear
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: strike without following strict procedures. That seems like you shouldn't
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: need to say that. Just, hey guys, as an aside,
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: don't launch any nukes unless you follow the rules. And
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: I guess those strict procedures include getting an order from
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: only the president himself and making sure that Milley is
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: in the loop. Now, Republicans are losing their shit over
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: the story. Trump has denied it, but also accused Milley
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: of treason. People like Marco Rubio have called on him
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: to resign for supposedly undermining the commander in chief. What
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: do you think about all this?
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: I have no idea what to believe. These books are
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 4: so problematic. in so many ways to know what's really happening.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 4: And it's a problem with the genre, right? And it's
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: a genre that Woodward himself invented. He uses this omniscient
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: narrator function where every interview, other than maybe with the
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: president themselves, is on deep background. And so he recounts
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: all these moments and the reader never knows who's telling them, right?
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: And because of that, so there are two problems with that.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 4: One is every one of these books, whether it's the
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: one written by Woodward or the one written by Phil
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: Rocker and Carol Lennig.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: Or Michael Bender, all of them.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: And they're all like good, interesting books and they're following
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: a model, but they're all written like with the idea
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 4: of like a William Goldman screenplay at the end, like
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: they all want to be all the president's men. And so,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 4: and here's the thing, life in government is like consequential,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: but kind of boring on a daily basis, right? Like
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 4: this is the thing we know from reading a bunch
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: of books about meetings we were in. It's like, Yeah,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 4: that's kind of like the funhouse mirror version of what
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: actually happened.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: Like it was an important decision, but people weren't yelling.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: It wasn't like.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: There's usually a kernel of truth to all of these
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: stories from just from our perspective, having been in the
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: White House and then read about them. And like the
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: general sense is usually correct, but there's usually a lot
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: of details that are wrong.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: And because of the anonymity and this sort of over-dramatization,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: one of the things that's important to recognize is all
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: these conversations, right? The ones that sound nothing like Trump,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 4: the ones that sound like Trump, They're not based on tapes.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: They're not based on transcripts. In most cases, they're not
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: based on written notes because no one in Washington writes
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 4: down presidential conversations for fear of getting subpoenaed. It's just
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 4: people's recollection. And particularly with Trump and with all these books,
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 4: everyone has an agenda. It is very clear from this
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 4: book and some of the others that came out is
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: that Mark Milley is on a full– has a full-time
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 4: job of trying to rehab his reputation for standing next
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: to Trump in Lafayette Square.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: And it is, uh, as, as Tommy said on Wednesday,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: he definitely had the soup.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: That is like, and so it's, it's hard to know
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 4: what actually happened. What didn't, I think if, if a
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: general is doing freelance diplomacy without the president with China,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 4: that's bad. Like we do, we do not want that
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: in our country, whether Trump is the president or someone else,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 4: but how much of it is real? How much is it?
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: How much is over-dramatization? How much is poorly communicated in
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: the first, second, third hand retelling of these things?
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: I just have no idea.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: I will say now that I've dug into this and
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: like prepared for this pod, even if you think everything
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: in the book is 100 percent correct, it still doesn't
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: suggest that Milley was doing a bunch of freelance diplomacy
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: like and Milley has since put out statements or the
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: Joint Chiefs has put out a statement. Biden has completely
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: backed him. And basically what they're saying is like he
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: calls his Chinese counterpart all the time. That's part of
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: the job. There were a bunch of other people in
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: these meetings. Transcripts of these calls went to all the
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: people they were supposed to go to. So this wasn't
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: some like secret call like a lot of people knew
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: about this. And also like if there's American intelligence saying
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: that like, yeah, the Chinese think that we're going to
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: launch a strike at them.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: Maybe if that's not correct. Then you're going to want
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: to let me let the Chinese know so that they
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: don't launch a fucking strike against us. Like you're going
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: to want to take measures after you get American intelligence.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: The Chinese thinks we're going to strike them.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: Like that just that seems like something that you'd want
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: to take care of. And also like the idea that
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: he would then just sit down all of his staff
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: and say, yeah, follow strict procedures for launching a nuclear
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: weapon and include me. But then he also said you
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: can only launch one if the president himself orders the strike.
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: That doesn't necessarily seem like he's undermining the president when
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: he says, don't launch the strike unless the president tells
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: you to.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that seems like one of those things.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 4: It's like, you know how sort of like you have
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: a regular fire drill at school?
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: It's sort of like they had a fire drill.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 4: They made it seem like, like maybe just every once
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 4: in a while, they rebrief everyone on the rules. Because otherwise,
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 4: who was the person other than the president they were
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 4: worried about launching a strike?
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: It's like.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: It's like.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: Like Stephen Miller?
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: It's like, hey, I got a call from Kushner who said...
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: We could fire up some missiles. Should I just go
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: ahead with it?
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: Jesus. By the way, though, incredibly scary. The whole thing.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: The fact that China was thinking that, the fact that
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: they got to that point, the fact that Milley had
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: to call his counterpart, say, hey, we're not going to
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: launch a nuclear strike because he's not going to fucking
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: repeat a Reichstag moment. Like, that is fucking terrifying. And
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: that leads us to number one. Trump was apparently so
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: consumed with Biden after he finally left office that he
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: wanted to use his private plane to taunt the new
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: president and was considering getting it painted like Air Force One, saying, quote,
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: that's my brand. I don't do the corporate jet thing.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to show up in a little Gulfstream
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: like a fucking CEO. Former Trump manager, former Caitlyn Jenner
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: campaign manager, Brad Parscale, did a fantastic job there. I
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: think she's sitting at 1%. Parscale also said of a
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: possible 2024 run for Trump, I don't think he sees
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: it as a comeback. He sees it as vengeance. I
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: pick this as number one because of all the hints
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: Trump has given about 2024. This is the one that
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: leaves no doubt in my mind that he's running again.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: He's angry. He's humiliated. He wants revenge. That is very
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: Trump to me. What do you think?
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I'm sure I actually even find the
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: Air Force One painting job thing to be quasi believable.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: Like it sounds like a stupid idea. He is a
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: stupid man with a lot of stupid ideas. That's a
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: very stupid idea. So it seems very possible. And is
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: he an angry, vengeful person?
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: 100%. Right. He hasn't been off Twitter so long.
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: We know about him. We know that. Right.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: Whether that means he'll run or not. Who knows?
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: I definitely think he, I definitely believe that he thinks
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: he's running and whether that will manifest stuff or not,
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 4: who the fuck knows. And it doesn't really matter at
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: this point.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: What would we do differently?
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: But yeah, Yeah.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's an angry, like that is a thing
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: with all of that. Put aside a self-serving memoir from
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: a known liar. Well, actually we don't know if she
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 4: lies because she never did a briefing. So I'm just
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 4: presumed she's a presumed liar. But is you take the gist,
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 4: the larger arc, the gist of the book and the
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: gist of the book is Donald Trump was a dangerously incompetent,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: vengeful human being who should be nowhere near the levers
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 4: of power in this country. And that Thank you, Bob Woodward,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: for giving us that information.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: We would not otherwise have known. That's why you're the legend.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: He now exists as a humiliated person. He knows that.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: He's not going to pretend that he's humiliated, but he's humiliated.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: And his choices are to either die a humiliated figure
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: or to try to run again and win again and
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: complete his vengeance against Joe Biden and the rest of
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: the country.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: Or get more humiliated again. I do think that the
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 4: fear of humiliation... uh, from a second loss looms.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: Over that decision.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's the, maybe that's the one caveat there that
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: could save us from another Trump run. But, uh, I
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: know we keep talking about like the possibility of Trump
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: running again. It's because it is a very scary and
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: terrifying and, and, uh, I think at this point likely prospect.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: And if he runs, he is odds on favorite to
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: win the nomination. I think, I think it's almost probably
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: a lock. And then we have another 2020 situation where,
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: back to our conversation about polarization, 40,000 votes go another
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: way in a couple swing states, and Donald Trump is president.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 4: Do you mean a couple of swing states where they've
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 4: dramatically restricted voting in the very precincts that turned the
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: election for Joe Biden?
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: Do you mean those swing states?
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 5: Exactly.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: Exactly. So everyone, so the, you know, the good news
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: from California is even though it's a deep blue state
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: in California, like they knew some needed Democrats to wake up.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: They woke up, they got energized, they got organized. Thank
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: you to all of you who listened and who got
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: your friends to vote, who got people to register, who
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: made phone calls, who organized. We all did a bunch
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: of phone banks before this. And it was good to
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: see a whole bunch of volunteers really excited. We need
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: that kind of energy in 2022 and beyond. And people
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: need to start paying attention now because it's going to
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: get a little rocky. It's going to get a little rocky.
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: So thanks again to Katie Porter for joining us today.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: And I hope everyone has a great weekend. We'll talk
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: to you next week. Bye, everyone. Pod Save America is
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: a Crooked Media production. The executive producer is Michael Martinez.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: Our senior producer is Flavia Casas, and our associate producer
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: is Olivia Martinez. It's mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: Kyle Seglin is our sound engineer. Thanks to Tanya Sominator,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: Katie Long, Roman Papadimitriou, Caroline Rustin, and Justine Howe for
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: production support. And to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Phoebe Bradford,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: Milo Kim, Yale Freed, and Narmel Konian, who film and
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: share our episodes as videos every week.