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What Makes You Rich When Markets Feel Fragile · HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Friday Live.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_01: Every Friday and sometimes Thursdays, the partners of HPK Prouding get together and discuss what we're seeing going on in the markets, the economy, and tying in some financial planning topics.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: So with me today is Mr.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: David Harper.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_01: David, you surviving the volatility?
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: Oh yes.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_02: Yes.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_02: I always enjoy roller coasters.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_02: I understand that it's I'm safer to be in the car with the seatbelt on, going down the hill, thinking that the hill is going to be going back up.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_02: I'm better off doing that than trying to jump out.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_02: There is you know one thing we one thing that uh I'm sure Mike and I are very confident of, and and we very we are very certain is that there's a lot of uncertainty out there.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's actually just trying to you know summarize the week with David over here before we got on.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: And like I'm having trouble keeping up with these headlines.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: It's like Monday we sell off, and then there's potential peace talks.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: We're talking about maybe we'll get out of the strait or get out of the war even if the strait's not open.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it's gonna be done in three weeks, but in the meantime, we're gonna bomb them and go after them.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: And then Iran comes back and says, you know, we don't know what peace talks they're talking about.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I I don't know if he's talking to the wrong person over there or what's going on, but uh the strength issue with any kind of authority over there, uh, because once they become a person of authority, well then they've got a target on their on their backs.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_02: Um it's a volatile situation and so much of the market's uh uh reaction to all of this has been piecemeal.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_02: It's been based on what's what's said in the what's said in the policy, what's said in the other pieces, not really looking at the financials.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_02: Uh now uh the the one financials that is certainly very clear is that oil prices are going up and uh which is gonna have a uh a progressive issue with inflation.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_02: Um Yeah, yeah, we see that.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_02: Uh but how long will it take for the inflation to go down uh when the war ends?
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_02: Who knows?
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_02: Who knows?
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_02: There's some uncertainty.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_02: The market can handle things going up, the market can handle things going down, the market really doesn't like uncertainty, and in that way, most people are in that same boat.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_02: Most people don't like uncertainty, uh especially with their lives.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: Uh some person this here's the chart of crude oil.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_01: So we had Trump's address the nation last night.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think we were expecting a little more clarity or um something surrounding like his plan for the timeline.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: It was short.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: We I don't think we got anything.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: I did listen to the whole thing.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it just seemed like kind of what I was saying before.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_01: Like he wants to get out regardless of the strait being open, and it's your guys' problem.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: In the meantime, we're gonna bomb your infrastructure.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_01: So it's it's very, very odd.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_01: But anyways, yeah, we're getting a spike in crude today.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: We're at 112 a barrel.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so the oil market certainly not really believing the end of the war is coming anytime soon.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: Now it's it's a little, this is this is the spot price of crude.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um, if you go out six, eight months, um, it's not pricing in as much of the upside.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's saying it's gonna trade closer to$80 a barrel, uh, what the futures market is saying.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe it is saying kind of the same thing where, you know, it's oil's gonna be high right now, but it's gonna normalize at a higher level in the in the intermediate future.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_01: Um spreads, high yield spreads have come back a little today.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_01: So that that's a good thing.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: We're still elevated.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but being below, if we close below this 3.2 level, um, I think that's a healthy thing.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if we'll stay that way.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: The market, I mean, we really have to pull up the market to tell this the story here.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: This was Friday's big down day and then continuation on Monday.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: Now, as we were saying last Friday, it's probably another day or two until we get a short-term bounce, which we did get.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we got a little bit off of the lows on on Monday, but it was pretty close to the close of the lows.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: So we actually added a couple percent exposure to uh a new position.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we're hoping we'd stay in it a little longer.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: We actually got out Wednesday morning.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we had a 4% gain in those two days.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_01: So I there's just a little too much uncertainty out there for me.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's some risk to the downside still.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_01: I'm still gonna treat this like more of a counter trend rally, a bear market rally.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but I mean, you know, it could go either way.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: We are back above the November lows, which is a positive sign, but we have not regained that 200-day moving average.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_01: So for us to get back into the bullish camp, we really need to get above that.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_01: Some longer term levels that we're looking at.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we have the the highs of um 2025, um, that before that uh drawdown, that's around the 6100 level.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: That that's about essentially a 12 and change decline uh from the all-time highs.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: That's pretty routine correction in in any given year for a market.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that's conceivable.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: And based on this ascending triangle here that we broke a couple weeks ago, I mean that figure kind of lines up to the 6100.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_01: Now, what I'd like to mention, and I'll zoom out a little here.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, Mike, you were reading my mind.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_01: I say, put that out because the yes, we have a this is essentially this is the 2022 lows.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: And as we discussed last week, the progression of bear markets or near bear markets, you tend to have these counter turn rallies.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, 2022 was horrible, but we're focusing on the upside trend line here.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: So lows in 2022, lows in 2025, and extending that out essentially.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: So we we could essentially get down to the 5700 level, which is essentially a 20% pullback and still remain an overall secular bull market.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, that would be very painful.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: No one likes no one likes the bear markets, but um there's no reason to question that at this point.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but these things happen from time to time.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_01: So we're just keeping an eye on those levels.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we'll likely, if we do get to new lows, um maybe look to start buying around the 6100 level.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: But if we'll have to just see where the headlines go.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: I'm surprised right now the market is only down, SP is down a quarter of a percent today.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: We did start down, I think 1.7 percent on the day, and then recovered on news that there's some talks going on between Iran and one of the border nations about uh potentially getting a framework for the strait.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, what I've heard that really means is they're gonna allow certain countries to go through and collect a toll from them, which could amount to$100 plus million dollars a day, is a figure I heard.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um so I don't know.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: That's that's a pretty hefty toll.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's still gonna constrain energy supply quite a bit.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: Um, the 10 year did come down a little bit.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: We're at 430.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_01: That's kind of that level that we really need to break below for this um existing uptrend to be more of a false breakout.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: So hopefully that's the case.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: But we're just gonna keep an eye on those levels.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it's really I I am surprised that we're only down a quarter of a percent.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe we'll get more of a bleed in the last hour of trading.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: I know ahead of a long weekend with the war going on, which is a very headline-driven market, it's a little vulnerable place to be.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so I'm surprised there's as much fight against the selling pressure as there is currently today.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_01: On the economic front, it's actually been pretty good.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: That not that anyone cares about that.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um and honestly, I I really didn't care about these numbers that much either.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_01: I'll pay attention to the non-farm payrolls number tomorrow, but all these figures are gonna be kind of dated when it comes to the progression with the war going on.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: They're for the month of March.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so let's see, we got retail sales.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_01: It was slightly lower than last month, but a beat above expectations, around 65,000.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: Um, retail sales are pretty decent.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_01: The control group that strips out food and energy, I think, rose a half a half a percent.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_01: So relatively strong number.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: ISM manufacturing, um I think the third third or fourth consecutive munch of expansionary territory also beat came in at high 52s.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, negative with that was prices paid was kind of high.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and that's before a lot of the war effects.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: So not a great thing there.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but overall, the the data was pretty positive.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: I think tomorrow's estimate for jobs is 60,000 around.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: Um so far this year, we've had the one big up month in January and what the one big down month in February.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe that just this will kind of gauge where we really are.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna average those three months to see kind of the starting point, maybe the last six months even.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but yeah, I think there could be some potential pressure on that as the war progresses.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_01: And with an already kind of weak labor market in terms of hiring um and prices potentially going up to already sticky inflation, could put the consumer a little vulnerable.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_01: So we're being a little more defensive here still.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, well, it's it's not a bad way to go.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, you certainly, as we've advocated for so many times, especially Bryant has advocated, make sure that you've got uh pieces in place for times such as this.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_02: So you have short-term um monies on the side uh that can handle pieces for emergencies or rainy days.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_02: Um it's raining, uh, and we don't know when that rain's gonna stop.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_02: Uh but if you end up having to uh take money out to pay for your taxes, well, we're happy that you have money there to pay for the taxes.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_02: Um, it's gonna be a little bit less than it was at the end of February.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_02: Uh that's why we advocate having time, uh having your money in different pots that you can draw from.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_02: Uh so happy um Easter, guys.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_02: Um it's we're looking forward to this important holiday for the uh for Christendom.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_02: Uh it points to hope.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_02: You know, uh Mike, have you ever heard this one phrase?
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, Friday's here, but Sunday's a comic.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_02: Have you ever heard that before?
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_02: No.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_02: It was it was an old sermon from Tony Campola, I believe.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, and then you have where you know the whole world is crashing down, Christ is crucified on a Friday, and uh low of lows that happen, and yet Easter he is raised, and uh so Friday's here, Sundays are coming, yeah.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_02: So we're in a war, it's gonna come to an end.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_02: I don't mean to equate uh uh this high holiday with uh war and so forth, but uh there are rough times, but the sunshine will come out tomorrow.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_01: And you've you've been back around you've been in this business for a long time and have seen a lot of corrections, bear markets, recessions.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_01: What do you tell clients in these situations?
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_01: How do you get them to not panic?
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, uh, one of the things that they have been here for a long time, and everyone has experienced in their lifetimes downturns, not just necessarily um financial, okay, but things that happen in families.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_02: Uh oh my goodness, uh, and yet uh families are able to rally around and deal with the crisis and wait for the crisis to end and then repair itself.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_02: Um our financial lives are no different.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so uh give some time.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_02: Um and the the the world and the US has been in rougher times than this and has come back.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_02: Now, again, we're supposed to say that uh past performance is no guarantee for future growth, okay.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I get that.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_02: But in regard to our lives, what's really important in your life?
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_02: Are you rich because you have lots of money or are you rich because you have great family relationships and friends?
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_02: What makes your life rich?
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_02: And if you have some questions about uh how do I make my life rich or richer, we've we'd be more than happy to uh have that discussion.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_02: Um enjoy your life because that that's what God has provided to you, okay?
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_02: And He didn't He didn't just set it and forget about you.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_02: Uh He is ready to meet you anywhere you wish and let's enjoy life uh that He has provided.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_02: And if you have a downturn, okay.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_02: Um the sun will come out tomorrow.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_02: Well said even if you're on Nova's Ark, it wasn't gonna stop raining.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe it won't come out tomorrow, but in well, 42 days.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_02: I think that took a well, I think that took about over a year or so.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sure it did.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: Well, before I flip on disclosures, I hope everyone has a happy and wonderful Easter.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_01: Um, maybe we'll do a video earlier in the week discussing the the jobs numbers and what's going on with the war.
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_01: But if not, keep an eye out for our blog posts and we'll be back on next Friday.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: Happy Easter.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: Happy Easter, folks.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: Security is offered through LPL Financial LLC, member FINRA, and SIPC.org.
• 15:28
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• 15:33
  SPEAKER_00: Brian Peluso, Michael Kutch, and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLC.
• 15:40
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