Latest / Career Coaching with Fexingo: Professional Coaches, Career Counselors, and Guidance for Workers / How a Career Sunk Cost Trap Is Costing You Better Opportunities
Transcript
- Lucas: Let me ask you something, Luna. Have you ever stayed in a job — or a career path — longer than you should have, just because you'd already put so much into it? Luna: Oh, absolutely. I think most of us have. There's this quiet voice that says, 'You've already spent three years here. You can't just walk away from that.' Lucas: Right. And that voice has a name — it's the sunk cost fallacy. It's a cognitive bias where we keep investing in something because of what we've already invested, not because of the future return. And in careers, it's brutal. Luna: Give me a concrete example. I want to see how this actually plays out. Lucas: Let's talk about a marketing manager I'll call Sarah. She joined a midsize tech company seven years ago as a junior coordinator. She worked her way up to marketing manager, earned three promotions along the way. But around year five, the company's growth slowed, her role became more about maintaining legacy campaigns than building new ones, and she stopped learning. Luna: So she's bored and plateaued. Why doesn't she leave? Lucas: Because she's tracked her progress. She has a folder of performance reviews, a history of raises, a clear ladder she's climbed. And she thinks, 'If I leave now, all of that — the seven years, the three promotions, the track record — goes to waste. I've already proven I can succeed here.' The fallacy is that those past investments are gone. They're sunk. The only question that matters is: what's the best next move from here? Luna: And the answer, for Sarah, might be to leave. But emotionally, it feels like she's erasing her history. Lucas: Exactly. And that's the trap. The past is already spent. The only thing that matters is future return. So I want to offer a simple exercise listeners can use to check if they're in a sunk cost situation. I call it the 'fresh start test.' Luna: Okay, walk me through it. Lucas: Imagine you're unemployed — or better yet, imagine you just moved to a new city and you're starting your job search from zero. You have no history, no investment in any company or role. You look at your current job on paper — the title, the responsibilities, the pay, the culture, the growth trajectory. Would you actively apply for it? Would you want to work there? Luna: That's powerful. Because if the answer is no, then you're only staying because of the past, not the future. Lucas: Right. And it's surprisingly common. A study from the Journal of Vocational Behavior found that nearly forty percent of professionals who stayed in a job more than five years cited 'investment already made' as a primary reason — even when they admitted the job no longer fit their goals. Luna: That's a huge number. So what's the cost of staying? Beyond the obvious — the boredom or the stagnation. Lucas: The biggest cost is opportunity cost. Every year you stay in a role that's not growing, you're not building skills, network, or experience that would compound in a better fit. A friend of mine in product management once calculated that by staying two extra years in a role he'd outgrown, he lost roughly two hundred thousand dollars in cumulative salary and bonus growth he could have earned by moving to a faster-growing company. Luna: Two hundred thousand dollars. That's the price of inertia. Lucas: Yeah. And it's not always about money. Sometimes it's about mental energy, or the chance to work on something you actually care about. I've seen people stay in careers they hate because they already have a master's degree in that field. 'I can't waste that degree.' But the degree is already done. You have it. The question is: does it serve your next ten years? Luna: So how do listeners actually break this pattern? What's a practical step they can take this week? Lucas: I recommend what I call a 'regret audit.' Take thirty minutes and write down every career decision you've made in the last two years that you regret or feel ambivalent about. Then next to each one, write what it cost you — time, money, energy, a missed opportunity. Then ask: if I let go of the sunk cost, what would I do differently going forward? Luna: A regret audit. I like that because it's forward-looking. It's not about dwelling on mistakes — it's about extracting the lesson and freeing yourself to act. Lucas: Exactly. And one more quick tool: the 'five-question decision filter.' When you're at a crossroads — stay or go, invest more or cut losses — ask yourself: 1) If I had no history with this option, would I choose it today? 2) What would I tell a close friend in this exact situation? 3) What's the best thing that could happen if I walk away? 4) What's the worst thing? And 5) Which outcome would I regret more in five years? Luna: Number five is the killer. Usually, the regret of not trying is bigger than the regret of failing. Lucas: That's the whole game. And look, we talk a lot on this show about strategic career moves — negotiating, networking, building skills. But none of that matters if you're anchored to a path that's already dead. You have to be willing to let go of the past to invest in the future. Luna: And on that note — you know, we get emails from listeners saying this kind of framework actually helped them make a leap. It's part of why we keep this show ad-free and focused on real, practical advice. Lucas: Yeah, we don't run ads, and that's a choice. If you find value in episodes like this — if a fresh start test or a regret audit ever helps you make a clearer decision — there's a simple way to support the show: buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. That's it. No pressure, no perks, just a way to keep this independent. Luna: Exactly. And it really does make a difference. So back to the sunk cost trap — what's one thing someone can do today if they suspect they're in it? Lucas: Pick one decision you're currently hesitating on — maybe a job you're considering leaving, or a project you're thinking of dropping. Apply the fresh start test right now. Seriously, pause for thirty seconds and imagine you're starting from scratch. Would you choose this? The answer will tell you everything. Luna: And if the answer is no, the next step is to start planning your exit — not necessarily quitting tomorrow, but mapping what a better path looks like. Lucas: Right. Sunk costs are in the past. Your next move is the only thing that matters.