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Jobs Data Softens As Nasdaq Slips And Oil Falls · HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull

• 0:05
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Friday Live.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_01: Every Friday, the partners of HPK Provident get together and discuss what we're seeing going on in the markets, the economy, and tying in some of our financial planning blog posts.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: So with me today on July 2nd, we're doing it on Thursday because of the shortened trading week.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: Tomorrow we are observing July 4th holiday in the market.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: So the markets will be closed.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: But with me today is David Harper.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: David.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_02: Amen.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_02: Good to be here.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_02: Love short weeks and love the opportunity to uh chat with you all and thank you for joining us today.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: Any big uh 4th of July plans, parties?
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_02: Well, we we celebrated some last weekend.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_02: Uh took the grandchildren to Disney.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_02: Oh my golly.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so it's nice to see them enjoy the magic uh and not be w bothered with the politics and the uh the the piece of it.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: It was it was magical, it was nice, very nice, and of course, um I I think the true magic of Disney is having grandparents or parents fork over lots and lots of money and be happy about it.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_02: That's truly a magical gift.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I don't know how a family takes their kids to Disney these days.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: I guess I mean it's a little better for people living in Florida able to get season passes and a lot better deal.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, just like the ski areas where if you go for a day, it's three hundred dollars.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: If you go for a season, it's a thousand dollars.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's uh you pick and choose your battles.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_02: Uh and I've been to Disney multiple times.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_02: I'm just so surprised that I actually was on a ride I never knew existed, but my grandkids did, and they're only four and six.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_02: So we went we were at Epcot and went to the France uh place, and they had a ride called Ratatouille.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_02: So we were in we were in a car that was like a mouse, and I got a little nauseous to be honest with you.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_02: Uh but they loved it.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_02: So if you ever want to live like a like a world in a mouse, you can go to Epcot France and go to Rad Radatou E.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I'm glad you found a new ride and have recovered from your nausea.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, indeed.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: So I will flip on the markets first off here.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we are now seeing losses on the SP 500.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: We had nice gains earlier.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um, Nasdaq's really taken the the brunt of that decline.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_01: Um, as you can see, this is the NASDAQ 100.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: It's down over 1% while the the Dow is up 0.7 percent.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I think Apple's probably carrying some of that.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, I mean, it's it's been a pretty healthy market picture.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we'll see how today plays out.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: We did get the non-farm payrolls today, which did come in much lower than expected.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, 57,000 versus 100,000 consensus.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: We've been averaging upper 100s lately, the last four months or so.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: So some deceleration there.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um, unemployment rate did tick down to 4.2 from 4.3.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: So uh that's probably why rate cut expectations actually declined after the report.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and then you know, average average hourly earnings remain pretty stable.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: Um, participation rate did tick down, which is probably why we saw the unemployment rate come down a little bit.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um, outside of that, we also got the ADP numbers, which came in 98,000, um, also lower than expected, but still a pretty healthy number.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_01: Job openings were strong, came in better than expected at about 7.6 uh million.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so all good things, and then saw some weakness in the ISM manufacturing numbers.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: Um, still expansionary territory, but a little bit of a disappointment.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_01: Um, the employment picture looked all right, prices paid came down quite a bit.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: So um, overall, a pretty decent report.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you can see in uh the two-year is down today that that's kind of reflecting those rate cut or rate hike expectations.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: Um the report you know comes a little more uh on the dovish side, and then um, you know, crude oils come down quite a bit and continues to fall.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: So we're actually below pre-war levels at this point.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: So all these all these numbers, oil numbers, and then uh you know, the prices paid component, all are pointing to you know, inflation might start going in a better direction for the rest of the year.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll be keeping an eye on that.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but outside of that, yeah, we'll uh next week we'll have a full week and um we'll keep the update on what we're seeing in the markets.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: But uh overall, I think this is just a healthy pullback day.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, we remain above all the major moving averages, so it looks poised to go higher, but um that's always subject to change.
• 5:34
  unknown: Okay.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_02: Well, two things to keep in mind uh the market is a negotiated market, doesn't reflect true, true value.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_02: Uh two, uh the market is forward looking.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_02: Uh so sometimes good uh bad news is actually turns into good news as the market prices go.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_02: Um that's that's a little uh strange, but it's is those two factors uh affect our daily daily pieces.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_02: And again, Mike, this is only it's not even noon time, so who knows what can happen in the next four hours.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_02: Uh those things could totally flop.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I don't know.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: We might see a slide until the close, but um, you know, yesterday was a a good day in the market, and I'd say overall the the labor market, um, I mean it just one reading.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_01: We it's a big deceleration from the the prior months, but um, so I'll take that with a grain of salt.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, a little on the weaker side, we saw about 70 plus thousand in revisions for the prior two months.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so it's just something to keep an eye on.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: Nothing alarming at this point, but uh we'll just uh continue to assess right now.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think the setup's pretty good for stocks with the you know a little bit of a weakening in the labor force in the non-farm payrolls and then inflation coming down.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_01: So all good things for the stock market, in my opinion.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_01: And we're gonna have earnings season kickoff here pretty soon.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_01: And uh analysts are expecting another 20% plus earnings growth in the quarter, which is wow.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_02: Um well, with the drop drop of uh price of the crude oil, that will certainly have a uh bearing on the rest of this year.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: So that's for sure.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so turning to some of our blog posts for the week, um, this chart just kind of shows that you know the IP mark IPO markets finally starting to heat up here.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_01: Um it was very subdued due to um mainly interest rates over the last couple years, and we're seeing a strong pickup right now.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: We're at the highest levels uh dating back to 2021 where we had a ton of IPOs coming out.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so I'll pause on the charitable contribution and keep it on the IPO page.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_01: This is just saying this article goes into um, you know, well, everyone gets super excited about IPOs.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: We just had that huge one come out a couple weeks ago.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um, these things typically don't go straight up, especially now in this dynamic.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: You know, in in the past, 20 years ago, companies would come to public markets in the small cap space.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, the one we just had is in the top five biggest companies in the world.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, the obvious conclusion from that is you're likely not gonna have the same upside that we had in the you know, those mega cap stocks 20 years ago that just you know shot through the roof.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_01: Um, they're coming in trillion dollar valuations these days.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_01: So just be aware of that.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: You're gonna and typically in the IPO market when they come out, you have a lot of volatility over the six first six months, and then those lockup periods end and the stock starts to kind of figure out what price it should be trading at.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: So just be patient.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you're likely to get multiple entry points here and there.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you have anything to add to that, David?
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: You've been I mean in the market for a long time.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: I've seen a lot of IPOs.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_02: Initial public offerings are slippery slope.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_02: Uh and do you remember when Facebook IPO'd?
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_01: Do you remember when Yahoo and I don't remember Yahoo IPO IPO?
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: I'm too young for that one, but I do remember Facebook.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_02: Well, there's there's uh it's one of the major ways that capitalism raises monies that you can um sell shares of yourself and go public.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_02: And an IPO is a way that's the initial public offering where you sell shares of your company to the public.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_02: Uh and let's may the the buyer better beware.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_02: Uh a lot of choppiness, uh, even for the big companies.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_02: Um but um take take heart and know what you're buying.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um I think that's that's that's a good uh sentiment on most uh activity in the stock market.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_02: And thankfully we've got a a Michael Kutch uh person who who watches over us and uh steers us well.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_01: I tend to stay away from IPOs for a while.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: I'd I like to have them settle their prices and then get interested.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_01: But that's just me.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I'm a little too conservative on that, but I don't lose my shirt.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_01: No, no.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_01: So we do the thematic post.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_01: We have Market Monday, Tax Tuesday, wealth building Wednesday, and Think Ahead Thursday.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_01: So this is our uh Tax Tuesday post about charitable contributions.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um, obviously, the stock market has been very strong.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: So this article is just kind of discussing that as a potential option.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_01: You can gift um appreciated stock to a charity and get, I believe, is that fully deductible if you do it that way?
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_02: Most of the cases where your main benefit on uh donating appreciated stock is that you don't have to pay the capital gain.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_02: Now be careful, make sure you talk to your accountant, talk with the um the charity, uh, but talk with accountants, talk with professionals because um it has to be handled correctly.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_02: You've got to donate the appreciated shares over to the charity and they sell it.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_02: If you sell it, the capital gain is gonna lay on you.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_02: Uh so be careful about that.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_01: Um, there's limits on the the cash gift amount.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think it can only be 60% of your adjusted gross income.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, you want to make sure that you get credit for the for your donation.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and if you gift too much, and I'm not that's that's rather oxymoronic.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_02: Uh can anyone give too much?
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_02: Well, according to the IRS, yes.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_02: According to um certain principles, uh maybe not, but uh if you're looking for a tax deduction, uh certainly stay within those IRS uh guidelines and make sure you do well with uh talk it through with your accountant and other professionals.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_02: Um charity the United States, uh people in the United States are very charitable oriented.
• 12:50
  unknown: Uh-huh.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_02: And it's good to see that.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_02: Do you realize out of all the charities that are, I mean, of all the people that give to charities, okay, 80% of that is from individuals.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_02: Now, if I look at an individual being uh that they have excess money and they form a foundation, I include that with the individual.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_02: But foundational giving and the personal um individuals, um I makes up about 80%, 10% by corporation, another 10% by uh people leave it in your will.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_02: Uh so most charities uh are funded uh through individuals, and the average um, and this is taken from the um um uh some of the trainings I've been through uh with uh fundraising uh uh with the Sarasota County History Center.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_02: Um the average, I I believe if I'm not mistaken, the average donated monetary gift is around$32.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_02: So if you wonder why um uh tunnels to tower, towers to tunnels and wounded warrior project where where they're only asking for$17 or$11, that's just to keep the uh the average amount and have people in the process and uh having have a habit, build those habits of uh regular giving.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_02: It's it it does wonders for the charity and for our fellow human being.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_02: And I have a quote to follow up on that, Mike.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, let's hear it.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, for my wonderful calendar blogs, it says this is from William Hazlitt, H A S H A Z L I T.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_02: The love of liberty is the love of others, the love of power is the love of ourselves.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_02: So uh as we get ready to celebrate our 250th anniversary as a country, um, the love of liberty is for those around us.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_02: Um the love of power is antithesis, uh, where if you love yourself too much, uh the the power will don't don't get on a power trip, right, Mike?
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: Stay so out outside of gifting stock to charity, say you have uh appreciate it holding, uh what are some other potential options for uh for that individual?
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, there are charitable annuity trusts uh where you don't have to go through an attorney.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, if you have questions about that, reach out to us where you can um you can actually do a charitable gift annuity um where you don't need like I said, you don't need an attorney to set up all charitable remainder trusts, you do need legal work for those to take place, all right.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_02: Um but you can gift pretty simply um and this year uh it starts this year, but you can any person can gift$1,000 to any charity of their choice and get to deduct it dollar for dollar from their taxes.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_02: Um so if you're a married couple, that's two thousand dollars that you can gift, and that will directly dollar for dollar lower your taxes.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_02: Um take advantage of it and let your fellow human being enjoy um the fruits of some of your labor.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_02: You can't eat all those apples on that tree.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_02: You might as well uh spread some of those apples to others that can enjoy them, right, Mike?
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um, or if you're in in the stage of your life where you want to start to gift to your children, that's also an option to gift stock or mutual fund in kind to your child.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um, the downside of that, say you're 90 years old, it might not make sense because at your death, you your children would get the stepped-up cost basis.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_01: So, all things to consider.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: Um, outside of that, there's also cool vehicles.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: Say you have your portfolio is 50% of an individual stock, there's baskets you can enter where you get like a portion of ownership, so you have a more diversified portfolio, um, and then it works, you get distributions and and that kind of thing for your lifetime.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_02: The the truth of the matter is if you've got a 50% appreciated stock, you know, we're happy for your good fortune, but you're not stuck.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_02: Uh there are remedies and there are some strategies that can help you uh and multiple strategies and help you curtail or mitigate some of that tax hit.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_02: Reach out to us.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you can book an appointment right on our website at hpkprovenant.com.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_01: Um, if you go to the contact us tab, or we actually have a tab that says schedule an appointment.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: That's also um an option for you.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_01: And and we can go dive into the details, and Brian can pull out his fancy financial planning software and and get into the details and make different tweaks and give you a good security of your overall financial picture.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_02: That's sounds like a good, good uh piece for us to sign off on.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you very much, Michael Kutch, for your ongoing assistance in this.
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_02: And thank you for to our listeners and those who view us.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you very much.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_02: We appreciate it.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_01: Everyone have a happy and safe 4th of July, and we're just gonna flip on the disclosures before we go, and we will be back live next Friday.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: It's offered through LPL Financial LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.org.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: Advisory service is offered through LPL Financial LLC, a registered investment advisor.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_00: Brian Peluso, Michael Kutch, and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLC.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: Content discussed is for informational purposes only and not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment strategy.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial or its affiliates.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_00: All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: This communication may include links or references to third-party websites.
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  SPEAKER_00: Brian, Mike, and David and HBK Provident Advisors may only transact business in states where they are properly registered or exempt from registration.
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• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: You should consult with your financial advisor, tax professional, and or attorney regarding your specific situation before making any investment decision.