Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

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UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems go. Clear for liftoff. What's going on, everybody?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Happy Thursday. We are back talking some UFC 331. It
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: is a numbered card. It is not a fight night.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: That is always fun because that usually means prizes are bigger.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: It also sometimes means we get a co-main event that
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: is five rounds. And we do have that this week
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: in Armin Tsuruki and Mauricio Hufi. One thing that's not great,
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: 12 fights. 12 fights is fine. I mean, 13 is
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: way better. 14 is obviously better. We lost A great
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: fight in Moikano and Ortega. So a little sad about that.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: I'm struggling a little bit on how to get different
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: on this card. Again, Van, Pantoja, Tsuruki, and Hufi. Two
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: five-round fights that seem pretty hard to ignore for me.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Big Marley has four five-star fights, though, in this one.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: So I'm excited to talk it through with them. Los Angeles, California. 5.30 p.m.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Eastern is the start time. Hope Rio, if you're going,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: definitely enjoy it. Rio and I used to go every
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: single year. I used to always drive make the drive
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: up there, but yeah, uh, having a kid definitely changes
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: some things. So unfortunately we'll not be there. Last week
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: was fun in attendance though. McMillan fight was absolutely crazy
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: outside of that though. Little lackluster. I'll never complain though.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: What's up YSN. What's up Langley. Great to see you both.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Don't you big Marley. How are we doing today? Good. Yeah.
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: Tommy McMillan is the King, uh, man, Tim Elliott. What
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: a bad-ass he was too. That was exciting too. It's
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: like turning back the clock. It feels like, but, uh, Yeah,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: that was a fun card. I got to see a
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: Tommy McMillan fight live eventually, but hopefully he's around for
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: a long time and not just a good time.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go with he's around for a good
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: time and not for a long time with his fighting style.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: He's going to get slept here pretty soon, I think. But, hey,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: great fight, though. He's fun to watch, no doubt about that. Also, after, yeah,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: a war like that, going to hit the cigar and
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: probably smoke weed and drink and all that, no. Not
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: sure that's the best for the brain, but obviously half
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: these guys don't give a fuck.
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, especially him.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: But yeah, man, I'm pissed off that we lost the
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: Mui Cano-Ortega fight. I think with 13, with two five-rounders,
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: that would have been pretty solid. But now it kind
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: of feels like a fight night, and we only got
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: 12 fights, which is not great for DFS.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you. I think it's difficult for sure.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: The value is tough. We have a lot of big
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: favorites on the card. A lot of fights are expected
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: to finish. We had 9,900, 9,600. You see 9K at
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: minus 265. So, yeah, it's not my favorite card. It's
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: not my least favorite card. We also have college football
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: on Saturdays, MLB on Saturdays, of course, MMA.
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: So three sports.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: If you don't want to play this card or take
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: it off, we'll obviously be in the streets, though. But NFL,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: that takes rain. PGA also is back, showed on content
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: throughout the week. If you want that, we do have
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: NASCAR on Sundays. So six sports going on, as you
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: can all see them above. Just looking over at shipandnation.com.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: If you do want to get in, bottom left, join
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: the nation. I think the best deal, if you haven't
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: given us a try, is this five days for $ 19 trial.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: You get SaberSim, you get Discord, and you get access, again,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: to all six of the sports going live above. So
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: definitely want to check that out. Otherwise, I think the
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: starter is probably the best deal. Being able to get
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: 500 lineups, projections, and ownership from SaberSim, contest flashback, late swap,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: portfolio diversification, and DFS mastermind for free. I think this
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: is a very good one to try out. And then
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: single sport. If you just play MMA, you say, that's
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: all I want. We do have MMA content as well.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: I think we have, I don't know if it's like
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: eight or nine straight weeks. Like the UFC just never
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: ends all the way until Thanksgiving, I believe. So we'd
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: love to have you definitely do get in the discord.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: If you do join, let me hop back over and
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: share this. Um, yeah, I, I agree. Langley, this is
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: my third show of the day. It went from NFL
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: to MLB to, uh, To this, or to MMA, and
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be playing college football as well in
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: the streets. PGA probably. I mean, I'm playing them all.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: So it is that time of the year. Money's to
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: be made. And that's what we're trying to do over
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: here at Shippen Nation. Anything else before we go fight
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: by fight, Big Marley?
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: No, let's get into it.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Let's get into it. First fight of the night. Big favorite,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Joe Anderson, Brito, minus 400. Giga, Chikadze, plus 319, minus
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: 215 for this fight to finish. Brito, minus 160 inside
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: the distance. Giga, plus 200. 575. This line opened minus 425.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Brito five minutes later was minus 340. So some money
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: on Giga initially. And then Brito has then since got
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: some money as far as the inside the distance and
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: open minus 200 to finish now minus 215. Brito open
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: minus 130 to finish now minus 160. Clash of Styles.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: You see Brito wrestles Giga strikes, but he's a low
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: volume striker. I'm already going to say Brito, one of
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: my favorite plays, I think, on the slate. I guess
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: saying one of my favorite plays is a little tough,
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: but if you play Brito over Armin Sarukian and don't
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: leave that 100 and he outscores him in a vacuum,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: that's a way you can get different. I just think
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Brito's going to wrestle early and often, and if that's
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: the case, we know the upside at 9,200 that he
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: would have as a minus 160 inside the distance prop.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: So hard for me to get much Giga since I
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: think he gets wrestled in this one, and I think
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Brito's a good play. at 9,200. What about you?
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: Like Brito in this one, I'm probably going to just
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: full fade Chikadze. I think it would be terrible for Brito.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: If he were to just stand at range and strike
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: with Chikadze, that that would be an easy Chikadze win,
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: but that's just not Brito style.
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: He's rarely at range.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: It seems like he's definitely got knockout power, but he's
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: got a pressure heavy style where he's just going to
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: be pushing the pace, getting it up against the cage,
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: looking for takedowns.
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: And I think it's just one way traffic.
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: Once he does get this fight on the ground, Uh, Chicago,
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: he's going to have nothing to offer off his back.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: I think multiple takedowns is live. I also think a
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: submission in Indy round is live also ground to pound somewhat.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: I think that that could be in play too for Brito.
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: So I really like him by any method. Uh, it's
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: a Brito or pass for me. I do like a
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: lot of the nine K guys, so I don't know
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: how heavy I'll be able to get, but I would
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: like to be overweight to the field on Brito.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah. That's also kind of why I even like Brito
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: more than I initially thought is the nine K range
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: is absolutely loaded. If you want to go Gable at 9,900, sure.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Robelos to Spain, favored to win in round one, 9,600.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Ryan Gondra, favored to win in round one, 9,400. All
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: bigger favorites there. And then again, you have Sarukian for
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: 100 less than Brito. And you have Iwu in a
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: fight that he's favored to win inside round one, too.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: So I think Brito has to be low-owned for that reason.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: And he is my favorite low-owned pivot in the upper tier,
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: I think. I prefer Brito more than Choi. Brito more
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: than Charles Jourdain. Brito more than you. And that's all
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: we have right there. So I just think in chalk
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: your lineups when I'm trying to get different. Brito I
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: think is going to come in lower owned than he
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: should for the wrestling upside he has. And yeah, don't
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: like Giga much at all. Let's get to next fight
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: on the card. It's a mid-tier fight. And there's only
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: three mid-tier fights on the card. And it's Joshua Van
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Patoja and Shabazian Ferreira. Ferreira and Shabazian is now minus
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: 275 to finish. Obviously the main event is great to target.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: So this has to be ownership has to stay in check.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: But Casey minus 221, excuse me, Maura plus 186, plus
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: 155 for this fight to finish. Casey plus 250 inside
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: the distance, Maura plus 435. Yeah, why do you have
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: four stars on Maura and two on O'Neal? Are you
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: picking Maura to win? What makes you prefer her?
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: Well, I actually should change that to three and three.
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: I was struggling for underdogs just picking out right on
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: this card. Um, when I was doing my picks, I
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: think Pantoja was even minus one Oh five. So I
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: got to the end of it. I'm like, damn, I
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: haven't picked an underdog yet. So I, I ended up
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: going with Maura for that reason, but I, I don't
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: feel good about it. I do think round one more
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: is going to be super alive to somewhat dominate the
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: fight with takedowns.
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: Uh, she could threaten submissions.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: Um, I also think she could just have a takedown
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: heavy type of style and win two rounds on the cards.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: the longer it goes though, she's just going to start
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: to fade. And I think round three, it's going to
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: be harder for those takedowns to come, but maybe she's
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: already done enough to.
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: Have won two rounds.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: You can put those in the bank, not get finished
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: in the third and still score around 10 X that 7,700.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: So I do like Maura as an underdog, but Casey
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: O'Neill is definitely the one with the higher ceiling. I
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: think it's kind of one way traffic on the feet.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: She is the better striker, the more dangerous striker and
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: the one that can push a pace and keep cardio
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: going for three full rounds. So The longer it goes,
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: the more it's going to favor O'Neal. But I think
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: round one especially, Maura can really look pretty good in
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: this one as an underdog. So I really just went
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: with her because she was an underdog on a card that,
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: spoiler alert, I'm really not picking any underdogs on.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. I'm not picking many underdogs either. With
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: that being said, I'm not with you on Maura as
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: my preferred play. I think this is a great spot
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: for Casey. Opened minus 190, now minus 221. Opened plus
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: 300 inside the distance, now plus 250. Taking on someone that,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: after one and a half rounds, I think Moore is
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: going to be really tired. She was really tired in
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the Wayne Kong fight. Casey O'Neal pushes the pace. 7.89
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: significant strikes per minute. 1.4 takedowns. If it's on the feet,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: O'Neal's just going to be spamming significant strikes. She will
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: have to fight off takedowns, and that is how this
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: fight does bust. Maura dominates round one with the wrestling.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Casey wins two. It goes to decision or something like that.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: But we've seen Casey put up big boy, big girl scores,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: excuse me, And that's because she can wrestle, she can strike,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: and she has good cardio. And I think that really
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: could come into play in this one against Morris. All
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: the line movements on her. And I think at 8,500, again,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: people will want the Van Pantoja fight. They'll want the
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Edmund Ferreira fight. You are paying something for 8,500. Iwu
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: is only $ 200 more. I'm not thinking that Casey's going
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: to be low-owned, but her ownership has to stay in
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: check to an extent. This fight's going to expect her
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: to go the distance. People will see that. Casey could
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: put up 110 in this matchup. if it goes right
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: for her. So I plan on being overweight. Casey. Yeah,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: we do need dogs. More is going to want to wrestle.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: So I don't think she's terrible. I think she's a
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: fine play at 7,700. I'm just picking against her, but
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: I'm fine with Maura as well. Again, she has to
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: be somewhat low on to Pantoja and Ferreira will be
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: preferred plays. And then I think Mennefield will also be
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: higher on than Maura. Let's get to the next mid
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: tier fight. The second of three. And again, the other
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: one's the main event. So this one is, Edmund Shabazzian,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: minus 170. Bruno Ferreira, plus 145. Minus 275 for this
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: fight to finish. Shabazzian, plus 125 inside the distance. Ferreira,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: plus 175. I mean, those are just phenomenal inside the
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: distance props for an 8,400 and 7,800 fight. With that
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: being said, though, this fight did open minus 325 to finish.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Now it's minus 275. So some money has come in
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: on the over. I don't think either is going to
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: really wrestle. So if this fight does get to the
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: second round or for sure the third round, I'd be
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: worried about this fight. What do you think of this
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: one versus the Casey O'Neal Mora fight? And how do
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: you see it going down?
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this one just has more finish acuity,
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: especially in round one. But yeah, the longer it goes,
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: the more I would like the O'Neal fight for sure.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: I would definitely worry about this one being a stinker.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: The winner scoring like in the 60s, if this were
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: to go to a decision and just both of them
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: giving the other a little bit too much respect on
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: the feet. I do think wrestling's in play, really, for
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: either side, but more so the Shabazzian side. I just
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: think he's the more complete fighter.
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: I actually like his gas tank more.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: Usually, he's the gas tank we're fading in fights, but
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: in this one, I think he has the better gas tank.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: Bruno Ferreira just has more one-shot knockout power. He's the
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: stronger guy of the two. He's alive for a knockout.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: He's also alive to grab a neck and get a
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: finish as well, but I think Shabazzian... has that same
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: upside just by putting combinations together and finishing Ferrer on
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: the feet. And he can also threaten submissions on the
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: ground as well. I also like him to be the
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: more consistent wrestler through three rounds. And then I think
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: Shabazzian is the minute winner as well. So he's my
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: pick to win, my preferred play. I think Ferrer will
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: be a little bit too owned for my liking, so
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: I plan on going underweight to him, overweight Shabazzian.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: All right. I like it. I'm a little different. It's
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: kind of like what we just said about the last
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: one for you. I'm going Ferreira over Shabazian, but it's
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: mainly because he's 600 cheaper, and I think they have
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: the same upside. So while you liked more than Casey
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit, I'm going Bruno over Edmund. The money
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: line's closer in this fight for the dog. I think
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: the ownership, Bruno's going to get owned for sure, but
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: I think the upside, again, plus 175 inside the distance,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Bruno and Edmund have pretty much the same and I'm
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: getting 600 savings on a card that I am struggling
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: with some dogs. So I prefer Bruno. I do think
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Edmund's a solid play as well, but definitely not an
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: all-in fight for me because there is a chance this
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: is like the Curtis Blades-Waldo fight last week where they
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: stare at each other for 15 minutes, and it absolutely disappoints.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: A fight that I don't think plays out like that
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: is this next one in Ryan Gondra, minus 500, taking
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: on Ozzie Diaz, plus 387, minus 900 for this fight
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: to finish. Gondra minus 400 inside the distance. Diaz plus 475.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: I'm not seeing any round one prop on Gondra on BetOnline,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: but I'm seeing some at other books. Let me just
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: make sure I, what the heck is it? Oh, minus 135,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: minus 130 range. Add some other books for Gondra in
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: round one. Yeah, I mean, I think Gondra is a
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: great play. He's supposed to win in round one, so
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: he'll score. I will say, though, I think Ozzie Diaz
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: is also a very good play because I think he'll
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: be very low owned. And he's what, plus four? His
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: money line's plus 387. His inside the distance is plus 475.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: It feels like almost any Ozzie Diaz win is going
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: to be optimal. And I think his chance to win
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: inside the distance or his money line is higher than
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: his ownership. So for all those reasons and a card
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: that I'm struggling to get different on and pick dogs,
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: spoiler alert, I'll be cheering for Ozzie Diaz in this fight.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: He loses a lot more than he'll win in this one,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: but when he wins, I think he'll get paid off
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: pretty healthily. So healthily, that's not a word, pretty healthy.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Ozzie for me, but I do think Gondra
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: is a good play as well.
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that all makes sense.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: I think you can just kind of match the odds
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: with your ownership on this one. Go with the first round,
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: your max on Gondra with first round, which you said
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: minus 135, that's like 57%.
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: And then Diaz, 20%. Yeah.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: I think that, that sounds pretty good. Gander is definitely powerful.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: He probably is going to knock out Diaz. He's aggressive.
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: He's going to throw hooks to try and knock Diaz's head.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: But I mean, all of his hooks are just real
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: wide loopy punches and he just throws them with aggression.
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: I think somebody eventually is going to crack them right
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: down the middle or, or like a step in elbow.
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: It could be Diaz.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: I would imagine any Diaz win at 6,800 is going
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: to be enough. So I'm definitely cool getting exposure to him.
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: Pick to win is going to be Gondra, though. I
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: just don't think Diaz is a good enough fighter to
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: make it three rounds without getting knocked out by Gondra's power.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: I just think Gondra would be the more likely wrestler, too,
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: if that were to come into play. But I'd imagine
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: he's getting the first or second round knockout here and
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: competing at least for the optimal.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Yep, I agree. We'll head to the next fight again
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: before we do so. Just want to thank everybody for
• 16:18
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• 16:20
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• 16:23
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• 16:28
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• 16:32
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• 16:35
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• 16:37
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• 16:49
  Speaker 1: for a low price, as low as $ 19 if you
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: want to give us a try for five days. Let's
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: go to one of the worst fights, in my opinion,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: on the card. Ju Sang Yu minus 232. Michael Aswell
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: plus 194. Plus 140 for this fight to finish. Yu
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: plus 195 inside the distance. Aswell plus 535. It's pretty
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: much Aswell or bust for me. The reason on most
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: cards I would not like Aswell. With that being said,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: he has the best money line in the lower tier.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: He's taken money since the beginning of the week. And
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: he lands 7.6 significant strikes per minute in what should
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: just be a striking match on both sides favored to
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: go the distance. So I think he's the best floor
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: play in the range, which if no dogs win, I
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: want a floor at 7,200 when I think studs are
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: going to score really well. And yeah, I don't think
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: there's too much upside on a lot of these dogs
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: down below either. So if he scored 70, if I
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: knew anyone scored 70, 7,500 or below, I'm at least
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: 3X the field, probably 4 or 5X. So Aswell or
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: pass for me, you's going to be super low on.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: If that's how you want to get different, I think
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: I prefer some other ways though.
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: Um, yeah, I am cool getting different with you. I
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: think he can win by knockout early in this fight.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: I like him to be the better striker overall, the
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: more powerful striker. He's got a hands down style, but
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: I think it can lead to some body shots and
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: that could open up the chin.
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: On an aggressive as well.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: Um, but that hands down style could also lead him
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: to get knocked out by Aswell.
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: I think Aswell's.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: Volume could possibly beat him in a decision. So both
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: of those are reasons to play Aswell. I just don't
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: want to get too much of them. Cause I like
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: you to win the fight. I, I don't like the
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: price tag on you. If he's not going to get
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: a first round knockout, I mean, maybe second round, he
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: could try to flirt with the optimal lineup, but it
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: might be too late at that point. If he's not
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: getting multiple knockdowns in the process. So, You is really
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: just a way for me to get different on the,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: on the lineups where I'm already chalky enough. I'm fine
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: with him at nine K as opposed to like a
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: burrito at 9,200, just at what a third of the ownership.
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: And if that first round knockout happens, which is actually
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: what I'm projecting to happen. I think it, it'll be,
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: it'll be looking pretty good on draft Kings.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Okay. So you like you more than burrito at a
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: $ 200 discount.
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: I don't know about that. I think, Brito can score well,
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: multiple ways. It's just at ownership.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: I'm cool with some exposure to, to you instead of Brito.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Makes sense. I mean, I think you might come in
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: 11% owned his round one prop plus 500, 16.7%. Anytime
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: you see that again, I don't think all round one
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: wins from you will be optimal. I think we see
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: some big boy scores in this upper tier this week.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: With that being said, if I knew you was going
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: to get a first round knockout, Excuse me, I would
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: want a lot more than 16% when I think the
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: field will be at 11. So that is one way
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Big Marley is going to get different is playing you.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: And we got to find ways to get different on
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: this card. Another way I will be getting a little difference,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: a little tie to Ivasa maybe, Shu Ivasa. He is
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: a big underdog. Plus 512 against Robelis Despain, who's minus 700.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: Minus 1,000 for this fight to finish. Despain minus 435
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: inside the distance. Tuivasa plus 495. Despain round one, open
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: minus 130 on BetOnline. Now it's minus 240 for Despain
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: in round one. That is a big boy number. Man,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: I'll never forget fucking Despain against Waldo getting wrestled when
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: I was one away from, I think I took 16th
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: and top 15th, went to the live final. It was
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: the round two of it. So I'll never forget. All
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: I need is Despain to win. And the dude's an
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: absolute bum, but. Yeah, he should find his way. The
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: problem is he's 9,600 in this. It looks very similar
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: to Gondra. Robelos, better money line, better round one prop.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: But I can totally leave 200 and play Gondra over
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Robelos to get different. I also think everything I said
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: about Ozzie Diaz applies to Ty Tuivasa. Again, a worse
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: money line, worse inside the distance slightly. So I like
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: him a little less than Ozzie. But when Ty wins,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: I don't see really how it's not optimal. I think
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: it would be a knockout or maybe somehow he wrestles. Again,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: I don't really expect that much, but we need underdogs.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: He's going to be low owned. The Spain's going to
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: get some ownership. So you get leverage. I'm going to
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: hope probably one of Ozzie or tied to Ibasa wins
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: this week. I think that's one of the best ways
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: to get different while eating chalk and not giving up upside. Okay.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: So I did want to, pull this up. So we,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: thank you for saying this. We, we are starting to
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: automate everything over everything from the win odds and to
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: the right, this is all automated. So there might be
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: a little, yeah, like, like we're going to, I'm going
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: to get rid of these 0.5, someone else behind the
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: scenes who's way smarter than me at technology is doing
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: all this stuff. But yeah, that is why you see
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: a little different right now. Every single person For the
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: significant strikes takedowns, regardless of three fights max, you're going
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: to see that. Odds will change on Friday automatically. But
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: how old is he actually? I can make that change.
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: He's like, yeah, he's 38. Oh, shit.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Maybe Phil was just truly wondering how he was 38
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: and he's back here. But I did want to say
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: that as well. This is automated and I do want
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: to change these. 5s in terms of height. But take
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: it away. What do you see? Oh, man. Yeah.
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: I mean, I want to like tie here. I just don't.
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: I don't think I'm going to put my money on tie.
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: I really don't even know if I want to play
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: to Spain just because of the $ 9, 600 price tag.
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: Once you get over $ 9, 500.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: It just becomes hard to make it on the optimal lineup,
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: especially on a card where I don't like underdogs. And
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: if I do want to go over $ 9, 500 this week,
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: I'd rather try and get up to Stevenson. So I
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: put it as a four-star because it is a minus
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: 900 inside the distance. Both guys have first-round knockout potential.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: Despain is just the more athletic, taller, longer, faster guy.
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: He's an actual striker. I think he is going to
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: get the knockout at some point. But Tuivasa still has
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: one-shot KO power that could just put him away at
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: any time. The issue is that he's lost seven straight
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: fights and he's landed 166 significant strikes without landing that
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: one-shot knockout. So I just don't think that it's really
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: in play anymore. I've also heard the wrestling angle. He's
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: got 18 UFC fights, never landed a takedown. I think
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: those type of fighters, when they wrestle, it's bad for them.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: They just start to gas out faster and faster. If
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: he wrestles round one, I think he's gassed by round
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: two and probably gets knocked out then. So I'm probably
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: going to not play any Tuivasa, and it'll be Despain
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: or pass. I do think Despain's the second most likely
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: to win inside 60 seconds as well.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, over someone we'll talk about in two fights, I'm guessing,
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: and the odds also show that. Before we do talk
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: about that fight, though, we got to go to pretty
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: low-owned fights and not one I have much interest in.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Charles Jourdain, minus 212. Marlon Chito-Vera, plus 179. Plus 170
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: for this fight to finish. The underdog in Vera, better
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: inside the distance profit, plus 300 versus plus 400 for Jourdain.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, anytime you see a Marlon Vera name, it's...
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Usually when I say anytime you see Terrence McKinney, anytime
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: you say Benoit, it's going to be a great fight
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: to target. Anytime you see Marlon Vera, it's probably going
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: to be a really bad fight to target. This dude
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: does absolutely nothing for, I mean, not even just the
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: first round, pretty much all fight. With all that being said, though,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: he's the underdog with the better inside the distance prop
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: in a fight that's supposed to go the distance and
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: we need dogs. So I've already said 60 might be
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: enough in a win from Vera. If I knew he
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: scored 60, I would play some. But he also, this
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: is his first fight after switching camps, which you never know.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: There's just more uncertainty and volatility that he might come
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: out a little different fighter. I doubt it. I mean,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: the dude's 23-12-1. He's fought for a long time. It's
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: not just the coaches and stuff. It's your own self
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: going out there. But there's at least a chance that
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: maybe we see a little different Marlon Vera. I prefer
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: Vera because he's $ 1, 400 cheaper, better inside the distance prop.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Tough for me to get to Charles Jourdain this week.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: What about you?
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I doubt I'm going to play any Jordan. I
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: would need a lot of lineups before I got to him.
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: Just because Vera is like unfinishable. He can't knock this
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: guy out. He's super good on the ground. I just
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: don't think Jordan is even finishing him if he is
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: able to get the fight on the ground.
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: But I expect a striking match.
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: And I just don't think it'll be high enough volume
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: for Jordan to pay off an $ 8, 800 salary. So he's
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: one of my least favorite favorites on the card. And
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: then Vera would just be my floor play over a
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: guy like Aswell. I think he does get 15 minutes
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: to work with.
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: Old Vera, I would even like to win this fight.
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: Probably drop the first round, pick up the pace in
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: the second and the third round and get it done there.
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: But I just don't even know that.
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: New Vera has that in him anymore. He just hadn't
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: really picked up the pace in like multiple years. So
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: I think Jordan is likely to win the fight. That's
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: why I have it as a two-star. But Jorday, I mean,
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: but Vera can hang with him on the feet and
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: also on the ground. He could also look like a
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: favorite in either area if he were to kind of
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: turn back the clock a little bit. He's only 33
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: years old. So Jorday, I mean, sorry, Vera is my
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: preferred play of the two, but I'm picking him to lose.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: All makes a lot of sense to me. What's up?
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: Go collect. Great to see you again. All right. I
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: think you spoiled what you were going to say about
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: the second most likely to get a win inside 60 seconds.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: If it's not Gable Stevenson, I don't know who it's
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: going to be. But this dude is minus 2,500, taking
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: on Sean Sheriff, plus 1,200. Minus 1,600 for this fight
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: to finish. Stevenson, minus 1,500 inside the distance. Sheriff, plus 1,300.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: I don't see any 60-second prop. And actually, I'm trying
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: to find... Yeah, minus 330-ish at some books for Stevenson
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: in round one. I guess... Yeah. What do you see
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: any odds of 60 second finish? And then even if
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: he did get a 60 second finish, like what are
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: the chances that's optimal? A dude's ninety nine hundred with
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: dogs that are very tough to come by. So I'm
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: going to be underweight and I'm not going to play
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: any sheriff. But. I mean, yeah, he's going to frickin
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: he's minus twenty five hundred and very heavily favored to
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: win in round one. It's really just a pricing thing. So, yeah,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: take it away.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure how likely he would be even
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: if he were to get that 60 seconds just because,
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, 9900 is so freaking so much.
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: But let me see if I can find this real fast.
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: So what am I looking for? Round props. No, they
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: don't have it out yet.
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I just think that I feel like I've
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: heard that there's some bad blood between these two. And Stevenson,
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's the best wrestler.
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: In the UFC, maybe.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: So he could easily go out there and wrestle his
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: way to a decision, wrestle his way to a ground
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: and pound finish, maybe grab a neck, choke this guy
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: out at any point. But if he wants to test
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: out his striking, I think this is another matchup where
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: he can do that. And I think he can push forward,
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: be aggressive, knock this guy out in the first 60 seconds. Um,
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: I also think he could get the fight to the
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: ground in the first 10 seconds and just dominate this
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: guy on the ground until the ref stops in. Uh,
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, he steps in to stop it either way.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: I think he's going to put up a big score.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: Will it be big enough?
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: Um, will there be enough underdogs on the card that
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: win to even be able to get to him at 9900?
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: I don't know either.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: So I have it as a four star for that reason.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: If he was 9,500, I'd be all in on him.
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: But 9,900, that takes me off quite a bit. So
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: I think I'll probably have just a little bit of
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: exposure trying to force him into.
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: A couple lineups. But overall, most of my lineups just
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: won't have this fight.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: I agree. I just, yeah, if I'm playing 150 or
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: 75 plus, yeah, maybe get at least 10%. It's just really,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: really hard for me to click that name at 9,900.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: And we have so many other killers in that 9K
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: range as well. Let's get to another killer. I mean,
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: a fight that I think is very hard to ignore,
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: even though it's not even five rounds, is Iwu Baraniski,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: minus 240, taking on Alonzo Menafil, plus 201, minus 800
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: for this fight to finish. Under one and a half,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: minus 240. Iwu minus 200 inside the distance. Menafil plus
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: 240 inside the distance. Iwu in round one, minus 120
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: after opening, plus 175. Yes, you read that right. He
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: opened plus 175 inside the distance. and now is favored
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: to open plus 175 in round one, and now is
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: favored to win in round one at minus 120. That
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: is something I... cannot ignore under one and a half
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: being so heavily juiced the price is at only 8,700 7,500
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: outside of Van Pantoja and maybe Suruki and Hufi this
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: is my favorite fight but it's really hard for me
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: to ignore it if I had to pick a preferred
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: play It's going to be Menafield, but that's just because
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: I need to click dogs. He's 1,200 cheaper with the
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: same amount of upside. It's not that I'm picking him. But, man,
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: it gets tough. When you play Van fight, Tsurukian fight,
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: and then this Iwu fight, that's kind of what I'm
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: saying about Ozzy Diaz and Tai Tuivasa and what you're
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: saying about you. You just have to do something different
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: if you don't want to hold hands with everyone on
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: the field. So it's not my favorite card this week.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: I'm glad we have two five-rounders, but it's going to
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: be very heavily concentrated to certain fights. This is one
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: of them. it's just hard for me to ignore those
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: concentrated fights as well. I think it's good chalk. What
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: do you think happens in this one?
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we're probably going to get a knockout.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: Just he was aggressiveness is probably going to lead to
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: a knockout either way. Cause these guys both have big
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: time power, a minute field. He's definitely powerful.
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: He's strong.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: He could try to slow this fight down and maybe
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: win minutes and get it on the scorecards. If, if
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: he was going to slow down at some point, but,
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: I just think it's going to be similar to the
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: other Iwu fights where he blitzes in early and starts
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: throwing combinations, and maybe he lands one or he gets
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: countered and Manifield gets it. But I would imagine that
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: we're going to get the under to hit in this one.
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: My preferred play is Iwu just because I like him
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: at $ 8, 700 just as much as I like Gable at $ 9, 900
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: because I think it's going to be another first-round finish
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: and a possible 62nd one.
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's got three wins in the UFC. He's
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: averaging 117 DraftKings points.
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: Nothing to like i mean not like there and i'd
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: be cool just making a lineup where i am not
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: able to get up to the dispens and the the
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: stevens is just starting off with like a burrito a
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: you and then an ewu and seeing what that does
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: for me i think that's different enough they're just using
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: you uh and if you get away from the main
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: event i think it's really hard to do because of
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: their salaries i think you're already different as well there
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: uh but i mean we'll get to it but I
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: feel like that's my favorite fight on the card.
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: This is my second favorite.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: I like it. So are you fine going Saruki into
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Iwu and leaving 400 and really chalky teams as a
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: one V one pivot?
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: Uh, yeah, I'd definitely be cool with that. I think
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: he was one of my favorite, if not favorite plays
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: on the card.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I like it as well. I, the salaries
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: make it a lot, very intriguing. Again, the fight's also
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: minus 900 to finish. So, uh, or minus 800 to finish,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: excuse me, after opening minus 600. So, yep. A fight
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: that cannot be ignored. Three fights left. Again, appreciate everyone
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: hanging out. D. Hu Choi taking on Patricio Pitbull. Minus 275, Choi.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: Plus 228, Pitbull. Minus 135. For this fight to finish,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: we have Choi plus 105 inside the distance. Pitbull plus 560.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: I'll let you start this one off. What are you doing?
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: Man, I'm probably not going to use it too much
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: with some hand builds. I like it more for MME.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: We're just kind of clicking on whoever's there. And I
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: don't know that I'd have a big time preferred play
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: in that case. I do like Choi to win the fight.
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: I just think he is the better overall striker, the
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: higher pace striker, the more dangerous and faster striker at
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: this point. Pitbull's a badass man, but I think those
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: guys from the Bellator days crushing it 10 years ago,
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: it's probably just a little bit over for him. Kind
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: of like Michael Chandler, they're around at the same time.
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: So 39 years old, I think Pitbull has a chance
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: to knock out Choi on the feet just because of
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: Choi's recklessness.
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: But I just don't see Pitbull being able to win
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: minutes on the feet. And then he turned to.
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: Wrestling, I think, two fights ago. Maybe he can land
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: a couple takedowns here. I just don't think he's going
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: to do enough with them to win the fight. So
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: I really think for him to score well, it's going
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: to have to be to knock out Choi. And probably
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: the same thing on the Choi side as well, because
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: I don't think Choi is going to go out there
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: and wrestle. I don't know that he's going to have
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: high enough volume to outscore these other 9K guys on
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: the card. So he might be looking at a first
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: round knockout for him to be on the optimal as well.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: But hand builds, I'm looking to get to other fights.
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: MMA, I'd be fine with either side.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: I agree. I prefer Choi to Pitbull, even at higher ownership.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: But again, Choi is going to be very low owned
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: in that upper tier, similar to you, except a little
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: higher owned than you. But we need pivots there. I
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: think Brito Choi would be the one. Patricio is 39
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: years old. His chin's definitely been cracked a bit. I
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: think he's going to be way slower on the feet.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: I do like seeing Choi opened a plus 300 in
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: round one. Now he's plus 275 and that is 26%.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: And I think his ownership will probably be somewhere in
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: the 15 to 18% range. So the numbers check out there, uh, 8,900
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: is a solid price. And going back to what you
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: said in the last fight. Yeah, I'm totally fine. Skipping
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: like the four highest price fighters on the card. Ewu, Choi,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: the mid-tier fights that we have, even Brito, Shabazian mid-tier fight.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: But there's enough upside that's not Stevenson, Gondra, Despain, all
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: of that, where I'm fine building lineups like that as well.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to go Sorokin to Choi and just
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: a 1v1 pivot in that one. Obviously, I'm assuming I
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: have no hoofie in that team. And then on the
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: pit bull side, I think he's probably going to try
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: and wrestle because I think he's going to get pieced
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: up on the feet. I just don't think he really
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: has much success. I think it's a Troy unanimous decision
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: or a knockout when it's all said and done. So
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Pitbull falls down the list. I like him more than Giga,
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: but I like like Aswell more. I like Chido Vera more.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: I like Mennefield more, Hufi more. And to be honest,
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: maybe at ownership, I like Ozzy Diaz and Tai Toivasa
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: a little more too. So Pitbull definitely falls down the
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: list for me. Two fights left, co-main event time. And again,
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: this is a five round fight. Armin Tsuruki and Mauricio Hufi,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: minus 350 is Armin. Plus 284 is Hufi. Minus 325
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: for this fight to finish. Sorokin, minus 165 inside the distance. Hufi,
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: plus 340. Looking at round one for Sorokin, plus 375.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: Some line movement in this one. Sorokin opened minus 350.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: Got down to minus 400 pretty quickly. Then Sunday, he
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: was only minus 275 before now, obviously on Thursday, we're
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: looking at minus 350. So Wentz, money on Sarukian, slowly
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: but surely money on Hufi, and then a decent amount
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: of money this week on Armin. And then as far
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: as this fight to finish, minus 260 for this fight
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: to finish at open, and now it's minus 325. It's
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: a great fight to target. I prefer Van Pantoja picking
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: since I think the pace is higher and the pricing.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: But a wrestler in Armin versus a striker in Hufi
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: with the undertaking money. I mean, how does this fight fail?
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: Probably fails with just a striking match the first couple
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: rounds and then maybe Saruki and looks to grapple late.
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: I would imagine something like that.
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think with five rounds to work with, both
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: guys are going to have a decent chance at the
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: optimal lineup.
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: Armand's a great striker.
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: I'd really pick him to beat most of the division
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: in a pure striking match. But I would pick Rufy
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: to beat the entire division in a pure striking match.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: I just love his style, the angles he throws at.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: He really just looks like Conor McGregor in his prime.
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: And I think he's definitely going to give Armand problems
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: on the feet, which is why Armand should be looking
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: to make this a wrestle heavy, grapple heavy type of fight,
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: because it's probably one way traffic on the ground. He's
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: the best wrestler in the division now that Islam is gone.
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: And I think he could make quick work a roofie
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: on the ground, or I think he could make long
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: work and just dominate 25.
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: Minutes of.
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: With a clear decision and score 140 plus points on DraftKings.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: So Armand is my preferred play because I don't think
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: Rufy can really win this fight without a knockout. I
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: don't think it's going to be on the feet long
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: enough for him to win three rounds.
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: So I think he's really.
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: Relying on knocking out Armand within that 25 minutes. But
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: give me Armand to get his hand raised. I just
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: love his overall style. I think he's the full package.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: I like him to wear the belt soon as well. Um,
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: but yeah, the reason to not use this fight would
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: be that Armand does strike more than he should. And
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: just maybe finishes it in the second round with the
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: submission and just doesn't get there at high ownership. Also
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: on the roofie side, I feel like he's going to
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: be the cheap dog that everybody goes to. A lot
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: of those lineups are probably going to be the ones
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: that get up to the Spain and, uh, Steve sin.
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: So that kind of makes me want to get away
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: from him and just go heavy on Armand or even
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: avoid this fight to get different.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: I agree with you on that. I think naturally Hufi
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: is going to have to be pretty chalky. I already
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: think he loses. I think Armin dominates on the mat.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: Because that's the case, I'll probably be underweight Hufi, a
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: little overweight Armin, but I will have some fight fades
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: as well, hoping maybe it's a striking slash staring match early.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: Even if Armin wrestles the first two rounds and Hufi
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: got a third round knockout, 70 could be enough. We
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: keep saying that at 7,100. which does make it tough.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: I prefer Van Pantosian with 100% of that one. Then
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: once you have 100% of both five-round fights, you're really
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: asking for trouble in terms of holding hands. But not
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: all cards are equal. I think if I was holding
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: hands with 35 people the first this week, to be honest,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: I think that very well could be a good lineup,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: whereas some weeks I would not say that. So I
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: wouldn't try and get as restrictive as normal with trying
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: to eliminate dupes on this card again with 12 fights,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: two five-rounders. the Iwu fight, just really, really clear fights
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: to target. So that's my thoughts there. All right, main
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: event time. We keep talking about it. What a fight.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: This is going to be a rematch from a 26-second
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: fight where Alexander Pantoja dislocated his elbow or fractured his
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: elbow trying to brace himself on the fall, which then
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: led to Joshua Vann Getting the belt, and then he
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: defended the belt against Joshua Tyra in an absolute great fight.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: It is Van. It is Pantoja. Minus 133 is Van.
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: Plus 114 is Pantoja. Minus 215 for this fight to finish.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Van plus 140 inside the distance. Pantoja plus 190. Looking
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: at Moneyline, where it opened and where it's at now.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: So Pantoja actually opened the favorite at minus 175. Got
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: all the way down to minus 270. And then money
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: has been coming back on the Vann side and has
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: not really stopped. Again, minus 137, plus 117 now. All
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: I'm going to say is one guy is 400 cheaper.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: One guy was a minus 300 favorite the last time
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: they went about it at Open. Joshua Vann just fought Tyra.
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: Tyra had Vann in a lot of bad spots on
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: the mat. And Tyra's a great grappler, but Pantoja is different.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: His cardio, I think he really, really, really wants to
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: win this fight. I think there is a little bad
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: blood just with how that last one went down. Pantoja
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: can push a pace. I think the cardio, Van's got
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: better cardio, I think, but Pantoja just finds ways to
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: fight through it. And then when it's on the mat,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Pantoja's back takes and grappling is just so dominant that
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: I think he can win rounds that way. And he's
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: 400 cheaper on a slate where we need value that
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: I can go any Van team to Pantoja pretty easily.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: It just all sets up mainly for the Pantoja side
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: for me. So that's what I got. What about you?
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to be on Pantoja.
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: He's just the dog I feel best about on this card.
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: And if he wins, he's going to score really well.
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: Either of these guys are going to probably put up 100,
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: 110 plus points in a win. So I think it's
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: an all-in fight. I also don't even hate stacking it
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: in a GPP if you want to go that route.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I just think it's a striker versus grappler matchup.
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: Both guys are well-rounded. Pantoja can strike with Van for
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: a little bit, but not for 25 minutes. Van will
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: just pick up the pace. He's just too high volume.
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: I think eventually he would knock out Pantoja if it
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: were to be a striking match. But I think Pantoja
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: can hang with Van longer on the feet than Van
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: can hang with Pantoja on the ground. And yeah, this
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: line dropping 20 plus percent just based on a freak
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: injury in less than a year.
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: I just had to side with the underdog.
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: So he was my side with the money line. But
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: also I'm going to need that $ 400 on this card.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: So I like him even more for DFS. But it
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: makes me not want to make a ton of lineups
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: on this card because I don't want to go all
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: in on Pantoja and then like going like 60% Pantoja,
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: 40% Van. I feel like I'm throwing money into the pot,
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: especially if I don't hit the nuts. So I'm probably
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: going to try and hand build 10 or 20 lineups
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: and just maybe even be all in on Pantoja. Just
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: kind of make it like that's my bet for the week.
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: Instead of going money line Pantoja, just all in on DFS.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: I don't hate that. You did mention even possibly stack,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: and I actually wrote that up in my write-up too,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: and I almost never do that. I do think it
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: is viable to stack Van Pantoja on this card. I mean,
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: if it does go to the championship rounds, I'm expecting
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: a very high-paced fight. If it makes it to the
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: championship rounds, that means I do think Pantoja and Van
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: are both having their own moments. When Pantoja gets takedowns,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: that means control time. takedowns but also reversals are then
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: on in play for van he lands so much volume
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: if that edmund bruno ferrera fight busts if the o'neill
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: mora fight goes the distance isn't as good as we
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: think dogs are really tough on this card we could
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: definitely see 115 from the winner and 82 in a
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: loss and that could be enough at 7900 so i
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: would not x out fight stacks like i usually do
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: on most cards um yeah they're just really closely priced
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: in a high-paced fight with five rounds to work And
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: it's going to play out on the mat a little bit.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: So I'm excited for this card, real life. DFS, I'm indifferent.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: I think it's one of the worst two five-round fights
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: that we have. Thankfully, we have 12. Fingers crossed we
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: do keep 12 fights. If it goes to 11, it
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: is definitely going to get ugly. But as always, all
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: of our content, if it went to 11, everything is
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: up at the Slate Station. You can see projections and
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: ownership as well, which will be up on Friday. All
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: of our content will be up on Friday. But Discord's
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: a huge piece. of our products over at shipping nation.
• 44:07
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• 44:10
  Speaker 1: to the slate station, anything like that. Again, we'd love
• 44:14
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• 44:18
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• 44:19
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• 44:24
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• 44:28
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• 44:31
  Speaker 1: You can get all of our MMA, um, Contents, projections, write-ups, course,
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: you name it, we got you covered. Big Marley, final
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: thoughts before we get on out of here.
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: Hopefully it's a fun one.
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: Hopefully it's a profitable one and we're not holding hands
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: with too many people up top.
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: Good luck to you, Tidal. Good luck to everybody listening.
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: Let's ship it.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Good luck, everybody. Enjoy the fights. Enjoy NFL. Enjoy college football.
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• 44:59
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• 45:01
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• 45:04
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• 45:09
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• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Good luck, everybody. Enjoy the fights for Big Marley on Titletown.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: Good luck. Be safe. Peace.