Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / April Rally Possible?📈Crypto Market Update

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April Rally Possible?📈Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Trump wants to cease fire. This could lead to an
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: economic boom. I'll explain it all for you guys today.
• 0:05
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• 0:07
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• 0:41
  Speaker 1: tangum dot com by using our link down below. Let's
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: go over to a couple of points I want to
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: lead off with here. The Fed just got the perfect
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: inflation report at the worst possible time because the CPI
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: came in for February as expected, which is two point
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  Speaker 1: four percent. Course CPI cool down point two month. That's
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: downpoint three from January. On paper, it looks like the
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: report and the FED have been waiting for a lot
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: of people, though think that this is outdated information. Obviously,
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: with what we're seeing happening in the Middle East, this
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  Speaker 1: could change completely in just a matter of thirty days.
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  Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip real quick because
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  Speaker 1: this will start to break it down and whether or
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  Speaker 1: not this was too early take a look.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's still a little early to say exactly what
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  Speaker 2: the long term impact is going to be. The CPI
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  Speaker 2: numbers that came out today were comforting, but they don't
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  Speaker 2: really take into account what the likely impact is going
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: to be over the next couple weeks on inflation because
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  Speaker 2: of the energy price increases we're now seeing or likely
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  Speaker 2: to see. But I think the market is probably going
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  Speaker 2: to be pleased with the numbers from the CPI, but
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  Speaker 2: it won't really affect the FED all that much, because
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: I think the FED is probably going to say that
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: we have to look at what the energy price you
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: are doing over the next couple of days before it
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  Speaker 2: makes a decision. On March the eighteenth, when the FOMC
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  Speaker 2: meets again, my guess is that probably you won't see
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  Speaker 2: any rate cuts. I think the markets are suggesting there
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  Speaker 2: will be no rate cuts this time, and I think
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  Speaker 2: that's likely to be the case, because again, energy prices
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  Speaker 2: are probably going up a little bit more than the
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  Speaker 2: CPI numbers suggest today.
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  Speaker 1: If you look over on poly market, we are looking
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  Speaker 1: at a potential rate hike opportunity, and this would move
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  Speaker 1: what was around our second at pretty much nothing six percent.
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  Speaker 1: It is exploded up here to almost double that twelve percent. Again,
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  Speaker 1: this is happening because of what's going on in Iran,
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  Speaker 1: and I think the key here is is how is
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  Speaker 1: the FED going to respond? If in fact that we
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  Speaker 1: do see just short term energy spikes and return back
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  Speaker 1: down to below eighty dollars a barrel in terms of oil,
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  Speaker 1: then maybe that does give the FED a little bit
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  Speaker 1: of breathing room. But I'm still kind of curious how
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  Speaker 1: March eighteenth is going to play out. That's still seven
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  Speaker 1: days away. We'll be doing a live stream on that,
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  Speaker 1: so watch out for the next FOMC meeting. Now, Tom
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  Speaker 1: Lee thinks that the oil surge is actually good for stocks.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Take a look and see what he had to say.
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  Speaker 3: But if I look back at the last two days,
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  Speaker 3: oil's fifteen dollars higher than it was last week, but
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  Speaker 3: the SMP is higher, so to me, the market actually
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  Speaker 3: is handling higher oil prices better. And you know, we
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  Speaker 3: wrote in our note this morning that we think higher
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  Speaker 3: oil prices are actually good for the US stock market.
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  Speaker 4: How in the world or higher oil prices which then
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  Speaker 4: mean even higher gas prices, which mean higher jet fuel
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  Speaker 4: prices and all sorts of other issues that are related
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  Speaker 4: to that input costs on a whole number of other industries.
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  Speaker 4: How is that possibly good for the stock market?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Part of it's a relative you know, one, US is
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  Speaker 3: an export of oil, so we net benefit as an
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  Speaker 3: economy from higher oil. The second is other countries are importers,
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  Speaker 3: so the US not only looks better, but on a
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  Speaker 3: relative growth basis, it should outperform, which means flows back
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  Speaker 3: into the US. And the third is, as we worry
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  Speaker 3: about globe growth for all the reasons you describe. When
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: growth is scarce, people buy growth stocks. The US stock
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  Speaker 3: market is a growth index, so it's coming out of
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  Speaker 3: the rest of the world back into the US. So
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  Speaker 3: I think it's a rotation story. But I think we
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  Speaker 3: have gone through a winter where a lot of the
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  Speaker 3: speculation and the leverage is gone. And I think this
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  Speaker 3: weekend kind of showed bitcoin is coming back in vogue
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  Speaker 3: as a store value because oil prices went up. But
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  Speaker 3: over the weekend crypto prices actually search and Bitcoin, as
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: you know, is holding above seventy thousand now, So.
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  Speaker 1: Tom Lee kind of cagy there, what's up is down,
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  Speaker 1: what's down is up? Kind of theory around it. If
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  Speaker 1: prices are higher here, it causes pressure into these international markets,
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  Speaker 1: which goes after the stock price or growth stocks here
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  Speaker 1: in the US. I mean, it's an interesting argument. Let
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  Speaker 1: me know what you guys think. Do you think that
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  Speaker 1: is the case? Higher oil prices mean better for the
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  Speaker 1: stock market and better for the US economy in general.
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  Speaker 1: One of the things to take a look at is
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  Speaker 1: kind of the timeline. Here's Kobec talking about the the
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  Speaker 1: Trump's Trump has been talking about this for a couple
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  Speaker 1: of days, is that the war in Iran will end soon.
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  Speaker 1: And the timeline, if you look further down in here,
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  Speaker 1: the wartimeline puts it at the end of March. Now,
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  Speaker 1: many people say, hey, we've been looking at April even May.
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  Speaker 1: But Trump is accelerating this, or it appears to be
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  Speaker 1: accelerating even though we're not necessarily getting accelerations from some
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  Speaker 1: of our partners because now the US has asked Israel
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  Speaker 1: to stop hitting oil infrastructure in Iran. This is interesting
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  Speaker 1: from one day going to hitting infrastructure to now the
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  Speaker 1: US trying to get a full stop on Israel hitting
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  Speaker 1: oil infrastructure there in Iran. Now I want to go
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  Speaker 1: to a clip real quick, because this gets into how
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  Speaker 1: Trump is planting seeds to get this thing over. Take
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  Speaker 1: a look.
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  Speaker 5: I felt, based on the negotiations that were being had
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  Speaker 5: by Steve Woodcoff and Jared Kushner and Marco and Pete
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  Speaker 5: and everybody was involved, I felt that they were going
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  Speaker 5: to that they were looking to tap us a long
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  Speaker 5: before they hit, and I thought they were going to hit,
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  Speaker 5: and if they hit us first, that would have been
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  Speaker 5: a very bad thing, all right.
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  Speaker 1: So I don't know. If this doesn't turn out for
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  Speaker 1: Trump in the sense that he feels as though he
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  Speaker 1: got misinformation on this, you could get into another firing
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  Speaker 1: season we've already seen. Of course, Christy Nomes she's out.
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  Speaker 1: I think Pammy Bondi is going to be out pretty
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  Speaker 1: soon too. And now you've got that lineup from Steve Woodcraft.
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  Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to go on after jareded.
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  Speaker 1: But the point is is that there's going to be
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  Speaker 1: some heads to roll if he feels that he can't
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  Speaker 1: get out of this and if it affects his economy,
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  Speaker 1: if it affects the American economy, or it affects some
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  Speaker 1: of his global negotiations that he's in the middle of,
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  Speaker 1: including this one, which is where Trump is getting ready
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  Speaker 1: for the g summit. This is coming fast, and I
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  Speaker 1: think he wants to be out of the way of
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  Speaker 1: the Middle East and into a position where he can
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  Speaker 1: actually say, hey, we did some good things over there
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  Speaker 1: for you. We kept oil flowing. We're trying to make
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  Speaker 1: a deal. Come to the table, let's get it done.
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  Speaker 4: So Trump clearly.
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  Speaker 1: Wants to go into this meeting with g with the
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  Speaker 1: war behind him. Take a look at this clip.
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  Speaker 6: We're going through a regime change. This is not a
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  Speaker 6: trade this is a regime change. We're moving from that
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  Speaker 6: world that was defined from twenty fourteen to twenty twenty
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  Speaker 6: four you know. Is the new economy boom, you know,
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  Speaker 6: driven by mag seven is a technology boom, asset light
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  Speaker 6: somewhar to what we saw the dot com boom. What
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  Speaker 6: came after the dot com boom. I remember it was
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  Speaker 6: the exact same thing. You had. A geopolitical event switched
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  Speaker 6: you in two thousand and one. And then actually directly
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  Speaker 6: connected to the nine to eleven was China's admission to WTO.
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  Speaker 6: By the way they were connected, George Bush Junior needed
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  Speaker 6: to use force in the Middle East, he needed a
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  Speaker 6: vote in the UN Security Council. He traded a mission
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  Speaker 6: of China into the WTO to get that vote. Boom,
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  Speaker 6: You're off to the races. You were in an asset
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  Speaker 6: heavy boom that lasted for over a decade of twenty fourteen,
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  Speaker 6: and then we went into the current light asset one
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  Speaker 6: and look where again in one of these huge geopolitical events.
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  Speaker 6: And I think the big thing to watch is when
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  Speaker 6: she and President Trump meet at the end of this month,
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  Speaker 6: and that's going to be where the negotiation happens.
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  Speaker 1: This could be a potential regime shift. And what I'm
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  Speaker 1: talking about is the you know, the global regime of
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  Speaker 1: how the global powers are essentially organizing and lining up
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  Speaker 1: around the world. If you think about everything that Trump's
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  Speaker 1: been doing here in the Western hemisphere, this all starts
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  Speaker 1: to lean into his strategy or that the analyst was
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  Speaker 1: breaking down. So he goes further into how this might
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  Speaker 1: play out into this next clip and how the trade
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  Speaker 1: could play out.
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  Speaker 6: Take a look, and what's going to happen is we're
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  Speaker 6: going to reprice everything. But I think the key point
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  Speaker 6: here what do you want to own? Own the hard assets,
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  Speaker 6: Own the halos. The term we called it in the
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  Speaker 6: two thousands was the revenge of the old economy because
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  Speaker 6: it was coming off the back of the dot com boom.
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  Speaker 6: This time around, I love that term, halo, heavy asset,
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  Speaker 6: low obsolescence. Own those assets and hang on. And I
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  Speaker 6: want to own metal, I want to own gold, I
• 8:59
  Speaker 6: want to own oil. And by the way, again this
• 9:02
  Speaker 6: is a huge disruption, it's just not isolated to oil.
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  Speaker 6: So Ever, since twenty twenty two, commodity prices spike. These
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  Speaker 6: emerging markets get money. What do they buy. They buy gold,
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  Speaker 6: they buy anything but dollar denominated assets because they don't
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  Speaker 6: want to get sanctions imposed on them like what happened
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  Speaker 6: to the Russians. And as a result, you don't have
• 9:19
  Speaker 6: that money coming back. One other point you got to
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  Speaker 6: keep in mind is now transfer payments are bigger, the
• 9:24
  Speaker 6: US debt is bigger, the interest payments are bigger. So
• 9:27
  Speaker 6: when oil prices go up, headline inflation goes up, that
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  Speaker 6: gets much bigger. In fact, we estimate you go to
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  Speaker 6: one twenty and stay there, you're going to crowd out
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  Speaker 6: one hundred and fifty billion dollars of private credit because
• 9:37
  Speaker 6: you're going to have to be basically issue that in
• 9:40
  Speaker 6: public credit.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: And this was an article on it, halo stocks, heavy assets,
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: low obsolescence breakdowns. Here he goes into real questions not
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: who benefits from AI, it's also who gets caught in
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: the compression and there will be compression. I'm looking at
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  Speaker 1: it on the compression of finance, the compression of next
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: generation finance. And I think when he talks about low obsolescence,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: that he's talking about here grids, pipes, plants, towers, rails, fleets,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: et cetera. No, I'm going to layer that into grids infrastructure.
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  Speaker 1: A lot of the pipes that are being built in
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  Speaker 1: digital assets. Some of the companies that are implementing essentially
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: the plants and the towers, and then the transactors who
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: are going to be playing into this. So if you're
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: into digital assets, these are I believe the halo of
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: where he's talking about this economy going low obsolescence. In
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: terms of technology, let's talk about eth. That's one of
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: the big ones. This would be one of the biggest
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: rails out there. Here's Tom Lee. He hits on this
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: right here. Congrats BM and R. Another sixty k in
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: ETH accumulation. That's one point two billion in cash going in.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: And remember we have talked about this many times. Look
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: for the one hundred, the one hundred thousand eth not
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: price purchase, one hundred thousand in eath and what that
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: means for BM and R. That tells me we have
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: marked the bottom. If you go over here in Bitmind's
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Immersions Holdings, you can kind of see. Let me zoom
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: in on that for you guys, so you can kind
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: of see. Here's the net changes right there, fifty forty
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: thirty five. And here's the biggest one. He just made
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  Speaker 1: at sixty. So he's edging up slowly from twenty four
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: thirty five forty forty one, forty forty five fifty sounds
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  Speaker 1: like an auction, right, Well, maybe he's on his way
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: to one hundred. That could be the bottom four ethereum,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: So keep a very close eye. I want to go
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: to one more clip here. This clip goes into where
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Matt Hogan thinks the market is heading.
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 11:37
  Speaker 7: My thesis is that we're actually really deep into the winter,
• 11:40
  Speaker 7: so deep that we may be seeing the first signs
• 11:43
  Speaker 7: of the spring. I think the crypto winner really started
• 11:47
  Speaker 7: this time way back at the beginning of twenty twenty five.
• 11:51
  Speaker 7: We just didn't notice it because there was so much
• 11:53
  Speaker 7: institutional capital coming into bitcoin via ETFs that kept the price.
• 11:58
  Speaker 7: You know, I think we were down six percent in
• 12:00
  Speaker 7: twenty twenty five, but if you would removed that institutional capital,
• 12:04
  Speaker 7: the price would have been down substantially. In twenty twenty two,
• 12:08
  Speaker 7: you know, we had FTX blew up, we had the
• 12:10
  Speaker 7: core infrastructure of crypto collapsing. We had a regulator that
• 12:14
  Speaker 7: was trying to end the industry. This time we have
• 12:17
  Speaker 7: sort of a classic crypto winner. But regulation is moving
• 12:20
  Speaker 7: in a positive direction. Institutional investors are still coming in,
• 12:24
  Speaker 7: there are other use cases of crypto that are emerging.
• 12:27
  Speaker 7: It's just a much more optimistic perspective. So maybe that's
• 12:30
  Speaker 7: the biggest disconnect is people have been so distraught about crypto,
• 12:36
  Speaker 7: and underneath the surface, the fundamentals are actually really, really strong.
• 12:42
  Speaker 7: I've just been trying to get people to look at
• 12:44
  Speaker 7: it rationally and realize we're actually in a pretty good place.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: I'm in agreement with Matt. There are a couple of
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: points he's hitting at. Is that when you look at cycles,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: and you know, just economic cycles, how markets respond. What
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: we've seen in terms of these black swan events, which
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: I would I would call what we're seeing right now,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: and I ran a black swan event in sense of
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: where the market has been impacted. Even though we haven't
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: seen a black swan that has really retraced the S
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: and P five hundred, that is still a concern. I mean,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: people would say we haven't seen that pullback yet. But
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: as we look at this further into the cycle, further
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: into what we're seeing in digital assets, maybe this is
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: nearing the bottom. Let me know what you guys think,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Drop some comments down below. Is going to be a
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: busy week. If you like this video, like and subscribe,
• 13:36
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