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The Favorites - Super Bowl LIX Recap · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by bet three
0:13
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: I am Shad Milman of the Action Network. Today is
0:20
Speaker 1: or Tuesday Super Bowl fifty nine recap episode.
0:29
Speaker 2: Last night, we reached the.
0:30
Speaker 1: End of a long, winding, thrilling, sickening, glorious, depressing, funfilled,
0:39
Speaker 1: drama inducing, maddening, uplifting season. It was everything betting is
0:47
Speaker 1: supposed to be. We won some, we lost some. We
0:49
Speaker 1: made good calls, bad calls, got lucky and unlucky. Unfortunately,
0:55
Speaker 1: we cannot bet an NFL game for another seven months,
0:59
Speaker 1: which feels like a lifetime.
1:02
Speaker 2: As such, our schedule does adjust a little bit.
1:05
Speaker 1: The Favorites will take Thursday off this weekend next week,
1:07
Speaker 1: just one episode this week, one episode next week. After that,
1:11
Speaker 1: we returned to our normal Tuesday Thursday off season schedule
1:15
Speaker 1: as we did last year. The show will still be
1:18
Speaker 1: primarily NFL betting focused, free agency, draft, futures, thoughts on modeling,
1:25
Speaker 1: off season prep all that kind of good stuff. We
1:28
Speaker 1: will have some special episodes for the biggest betting events,
1:31
Speaker 1: such as the Oscars coming up in a couple of weeks,
1:36
Speaker 1: but now live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm
1:40
Speaker 1: joined as always by my co host, my companion, my campadre,
1:43
Speaker 1: my BFF, professional better.
1:45
Speaker 2: So I'm a hunter l So I'm in.
1:48
Speaker 3: Hello, Chad.
1:48
Speaker 4: What am I supposed to do? Am I supposed to
1:50
Speaker 4: be depressed? Better or really happy Eagles fan? Tell me
1:52
Speaker 4: what I should do.
1:53
Speaker 2: I'll tell you. I'll tell you exactly what you're gonna be.
1:55
Speaker 1: Okay, because you told me last night what you were
1:59
Speaker 1: me you Matt Mitchell texting.
2:01
Speaker 2: It was the last text we got from you.
2:03
Speaker 1: It was right before I went to bed, As everyone knows,
2:05
Speaker 1: you're an avowed Eagles fan, and the text was, this
2:09
Speaker 1: is the greatest night of my life, so let's hear it.
2:13
Speaker 2: Tell me all about it.
2:16
Speaker 3: Yeah, I definitely had a good night.
2:19
Speaker 4: Broad Street, Philadelphia, Man, No no better place to be
2:24
Speaker 4: after you win a championship, No surreal. Honestly, watch with
2:30
Speaker 4: some friends. End up going to the sports book once
2:33
Speaker 4: I saw how big we were up, and I'm like,
2:36
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go try to cash all these tickets right now.
2:38
Speaker 4: I was just had a little too much of drink,
2:40
Speaker 4: feeling way too good, you know, had a buddy just
2:44
Speaker 4: drive me all around all around Philadelphia.
2:46
Speaker 3: Good guy.
2:47
Speaker 4: And yeah, I would say not that I knew right
2:52
Speaker 4: away as an Eagles fan, but when that pick six happened,
2:58
Speaker 4: I mean the sports book I thought was in a
2:59
Speaker 4: collapse on itself. But like in my own mind, I
3:02
Speaker 4: was just like, it's over. They have broken something. Mahomes
3:06
Speaker 4: does not ever make that type of mistake. And the
3:10
Speaker 4: fact that it gets the ball back in next place
3:11
Speaker 4: there was another pick to the Zach Brawn.
3:15
Speaker 3: I'm just like, oh my god, this is actually gonna happen.
3:17
Speaker 4: Just because you know, I would say any Eagles fans
3:20
Speaker 4: has this feeling that we are losers. If you're a
3:23
Speaker 4: Phildelphia sports fan your whole life, you basically have lost
3:27
Speaker 4: and you're always waiting for the worst thing to happen.
3:30
Speaker 4: And all I could think about was the twenty eight
3:34
Speaker 4: to three Falcons, honestly, and when they got that next pick,
3:39
Speaker 4: easy touchdown pass the aj and the Eagles basically had
3:44
Speaker 4: more points in the first half twenty fourth than the
3:46
Speaker 4: Chiefs had yards twenty three.
3:49
Speaker 3: You knew it was over.
3:50
Speaker 4: There's just no way, doesn't matter what happens to locker room,
3:54
Speaker 4: like not to make fun and shit on that Atlanta team,
3:56
Speaker 4: but once again, but it's like their defense is not
4:00
Speaker 4: parable to this Eagles defense, and I just remember thinking,
4:02
Speaker 4: there's no way that's gonna let down. So yeah, did
4:05
Speaker 4: did some really crazy moves end up on broad Stree
4:09
Speaker 4: at the end of the game, and yeah, just insane
4:13
Speaker 4: fan base. Like I was talking to our proofs where
4:15
Speaker 4: it came along. If it's like there's people out there
4:18
Speaker 4: who have tons of love in their heart and happiness,
4:21
Speaker 4: and there's other people out there that are just evil
4:23
Speaker 4: and mischievous, and you know, I saw some horrible shit,
4:27
Speaker 4: but I saw a lot of great shit. So nothing
4:30
Speaker 4: nothing short of expected in Philadelphia, and it's just everyone's
4:33
Speaker 4: in shock. Like everyone just kept saying to each other,
4:36
Speaker 4: I can't believe we did it. I can't believe we
4:38
Speaker 4: beat my homes and Tom Brady like you're gonna beat
4:42
Speaker 4: the best to be the best, it's the definition of it.
4:45
Speaker 4: So yeah, obviously can see I'm still riding pretty high.
4:47
Speaker 4: I just it's surreal. I'd probably two hours, so I'm
4:51
Speaker 4: i lose my mind a little bit. I'm just so
4:53
Speaker 4: fired up.
4:54
Speaker 1: So I let me do it, let me let me
4:58
Speaker 1: get some some business out of the way.
4:59
Speaker 2: But I have thoughts on what you were just saying.
5:02
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
5:05
Speaker 1: three sixty five. Now new Bet three sixty five customers
5:08
Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when
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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
5:42
Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply before we get into this.
5:47
Speaker 1: We're having another live event. This is going to be
5:50
Speaker 1: March twenty ninth. Joe's on Weed in Chicago. That's the
5:54
Speaker 1: name of the street weed, Joe's on Weed in Chicago,
5:58
Speaker 1: my hometown. We did Simon's hometown in December, and Philly.
6:01
Speaker 1: We're doing Chicago in March, and that make sure my
6:03
Speaker 1: throne to you. Are you going to give more details?
6:05
Speaker 3: Here?
6:05
Speaker 2: Is that the idea?
6:06
Speaker 5: Guys, I am unbelievably excited about this live event. I
6:12
Speaker 5: was hoping we could do it in Chicago. We were
6:14
Speaker 5: able to convince them of that. I was hoping we
6:17
Speaker 5: do it at Joe's Joe's Bar on Weed Street commonly
6:19
Speaker 5: and affectionately known as Joe's Onweed.
6:22
Speaker 3: We got that.
6:23
Speaker 5: I was hoping it would be March twenty ninth, the
6:25
Speaker 5: evening of the Elite eight. We got that, and I
6:28
Speaker 5: was really hoping we get that big private concert space
6:32
Speaker 5: that they have at Joe's. The last time I was
6:34
Speaker 5: there it was when Ronda Rousey got her ass beat
6:37
Speaker 5: by Holly Holm. I got to watch it in that room.
6:40
Speaker 5: So I think we'll have an absolute blast. RSVP site
6:44
Speaker 5: is not quite ready, but please save the date.
6:47
Speaker 3: It will be.
6:48
Speaker 5: March twenty ninth, Joe's Unweed, Chicago, Illinois, for the exciting
6:53
Speaker 5: launch of BET three sixty five in Illinois, probably probably
6:56
Speaker 5: four thirty. Then we'll do a live show. Then the
6:59
Speaker 5: first gable Tep, we'll all hang out, watch the game,
7:02
Speaker 5: sweat it along, and then the wall stick around for
7:05
Speaker 5: that for that second game at Joe's afterwards. So Marct
7:09
Speaker 5: calendar's March twenty.
7:10
Speaker 1: Ninth, and we're gonna have some special college basketball guests,
7:13
Speaker 1: right absolutely.
7:15
Speaker 5: We will almost certainly be joined by by Stuckey and
7:18
Speaker 5: some others from the Action Universe.
7:20
Speaker 2: It'll be a great time.
7:21
Speaker 5: Whether or not you care about the Elite eight, just comic,
7:24
Speaker 5: because it's going to be an absolute riot.
7:26
Speaker 3: Hot damn, this is fun.
7:29
Speaker 1: I saw these pictures from Broad Street last night, and
7:35
Speaker 1: tell me where you were standing, tell me a little
7:38
Speaker 1: bit about what you saw, because just the images seemed
7:44
Speaker 1: like you couldn't get close, and that it was mayhem
7:50
Speaker 1: packed inside of chaos, wrapped in a bow of complete
7:55
Speaker 1: and total ear splitting universe coming apart phenomenons.
8:02
Speaker 4: Uh sure, Well, if you don't know the lay of
8:04
Speaker 4: the city, basically Broad Street, it's basically a road that runs.
8:08
Speaker 3: From north all the way to south and our city
8:10
Speaker 3: Hall is in the middle of.
8:11
Speaker 4: It, and like basically it's it's huge chat So I
8:17
Speaker 4: mean you can get into broad you pretty easily. The
8:19
Speaker 4: hardest part if you're trying to make your way to
8:21
Speaker 4: city Hall. Yeah, you're going through tons of bodies, especially
8:24
Speaker 4: if you're going from north to south where I was at,
8:27
Speaker 4: Like again, there was a ton of people, but it's like,
8:30
Speaker 4: you know, I probably walked, you probably walked ten blocks
8:32
Speaker 4: because you're just walking all along. Everyone's just walking up
8:35
Speaker 4: and down, celebrating altogether. So yeah, it's it's shammed back,
8:39
Speaker 4: but it's it was pretty easy to move around. The
8:42
Speaker 4: crazy thing is people shooting off fireworks. Like in the
8:44
Speaker 4: city in between these massive buildings, people are just shooting
8:47
Speaker 4: off fireworks.
8:48
Speaker 3: It's surreal to see it, really is. It's like the
8:50
Speaker 3: craziest thing ever.
8:52
Speaker 4: You know, people getting married and shit, get engaged in
8:55
Speaker 4: front of people. You know, I joke a gift right,
8:58
Speaker 4: like I saw, you know, people that are doing things
9:00
Speaker 4: they shouldn't be doing. Cops taking it to a level
9:02
Speaker 4: they shouldn't take it too but like they're trying to
9:05
Speaker 4: control the mayhem, you know. And it was just it
9:08
Speaker 4: was really great for two hours.
9:10
Speaker 3: And then once it hit.
9:11
Speaker 4: Midnight, like one the gremlins really did come out, like
9:15
Speaker 4: the water got on their backs and all of a
9:17
Speaker 4: sudden it went evil mode, like you just saw.
9:20
Speaker 3: I was just remember turning to the front. I was that.
9:22
Speaker 3: I was like, you ready, and he was like, yeah,
9:23
Speaker 3: let's get the fuck out of here, because again we're
9:25
Speaker 3: he's just like me.
9:26
Speaker 4: He's in his mid thirties. And it was like, all right,
9:28
Speaker 4: I've had enough. He was sober. He's a true trooper.
9:31
Speaker 4: I can't get over it. I was blacked out. So
9:33
Speaker 4: I'm like in my mind, I was like, it's the
9:35
Speaker 4: best night ever. But even I was like, okay, it's
9:37
Speaker 4: time to go, Like this is this is getting a
9:39
Speaker 4: little little crazier. But yeah, like it's you know, an
9:45
Speaker 4: anyone to tell you that one to Super Bowl.
9:46
Speaker 3: It's surreal.
9:48
Speaker 4: It doesn't set in, but it's a thousand times better
9:50
Speaker 4: because losing is just so horrible, where like it affects
9:54
Speaker 4: you so horribly and just weighs on you until the
9:59
Speaker 4: following season, which, like you just said, it's super depressed.
10:02
Speaker 4: It's like two hundred days away. Thank god we wont
10:05
Speaker 4: because it's just, you know, especially someone like me, it's
10:08
Speaker 4: like our jailing hurts truth or it's like holy shit,
10:10
Speaker 4: what are they gonna say now? They can't say anything.
10:13
Speaker 4: It's the best.
10:13
Speaker 3: It really is it's it's too much.
10:17
Speaker 4: I get why people absolutely hate Eagles fans because even
10:20
Speaker 4: like last night, hearing these people talk, it's like, calm down,
10:24
Speaker 4: He's not better than Lamar. Okay, people, let's let's bring
10:26
Speaker 4: it down a level. But everyone's just so high right now.
10:28
Speaker 4: Everyone's just flying that.
10:30
Speaker 3: You know, everyone's just we're just so happy for her.
10:33
Speaker 4: It's he just with so much doubt, so much hate,
10:35
Speaker 4: and in two Super Bowls he stepped up both times.
10:38
Speaker 3: It's it's crazy. You know. I was.
10:42
Speaker 1: Texting with my kid who's a Drexel and he, you know,
10:47
Speaker 1: all he has so many friends who are from the
10:49
Speaker 1: New Jersey area because Drexel is a pretty local school,
10:52
Speaker 1: who are all freaking out. One of his friends that
10:56
Speaker 1: he lives with is a massive Eagles fan, watches every game.
11:00
Speaker 1: He had friends who were racing to get to Center
11:02
Speaker 1: City around where Broad Street is and all that kind
11:05
Speaker 1: of stuff, and I'm like, dude.
11:07
Speaker 2: Stay up the streets. Do not go to Broad Streets
11:13
Speaker 2: right now.
11:14
Speaker 1: But he was going to dude, you think he listens
11:16
Speaker 1: to me because it wasn't that bad, no, and he
11:20
Speaker 1: I don't know if.
11:21
Speaker 2: He went or not.
11:22
Speaker 1: You know, he's texting me this morning about something else,
11:23
Speaker 1: and isn't answering any of the questions I have. So
11:26
Speaker 1: I'm sure he ended up having a fine night. But
11:30
Speaker 1: Philly fans, you know, having been to New Orleans for
11:33
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, I've gone to Super Bowls for so
11:37
Speaker 1: many years, right, And a lot of times you ask
11:40
Speaker 1: media members and they've all got these pet theories on
11:45
Speaker 1: which team is going to win based on what's happening
11:48
Speaker 1: on the ground. And I have more than one media
11:51
Speaker 1: member friend who says they can they will put their
11:55
Speaker 1: money on the team that has more fans in town
12:00
Speaker 1: over the course of the week, and this was a
12:04
Speaker 1: blowout for Eagles fans in New Orleans. On my flights down,
12:08
Speaker 1: it was all Philly fans. When I was on the ground,
12:12
Speaker 1: it was all Philly fans. E A G L E
12:16
Speaker 1: S chance, We're breaking out everywhere. All you did was
12:20
Speaker 1: Sea Green. You did not see any Kansas City Chiefs fans.
12:23
Speaker 1: And then before the game started, my kid, my younger son,
12:28
Speaker 1: had about ten of his buddies over, and you know,
12:32
Speaker 1: these are very engaged kids when it comes to sports,
12:35
Speaker 1: and we were watching the game and we were all
12:40
Speaker 1: commenting on how much the stadium sounded like it was
12:46
Speaker 1: an Eagles home game, and that was the moment Simon
12:49
Speaker 1: where I was like, oh, fuck, we're gonna lose these bets.
12:55
Speaker 1: That's actually when I thought of it. I'm like, when
12:58
Speaker 1: that Eagles crowd went crazy, I'm like, shit, I think
13:03
Speaker 1: I think we're in bad shape.
13:05
Speaker 4: I know, no, that arms it didn't matter because that
13:08
Speaker 4: to me, it's it made sense the fact that there
13:14
Speaker 4: was more Eagles fans in my opinion, just because we
13:17
Speaker 4: have a bigger fan base than Kansas City Chiefs.
13:19
Speaker 3: I know, they've been incredible. This little run mars.
13:21
Speaker 1: It all makes sense, like the twice in a row,
13:24
Speaker 1: who's going to spend for the third time. The Eagles
13:26
Speaker 1: fans are are the Eagles fans are in a weird way.
13:33
Speaker 1: They're a great mix of sort of like we've called
13:36
Speaker 1: they're Philly scumbags, right, and we say that in the
13:39
Speaker 1: nicest possible way. Yeah, you're from Philly. I love love Philly, Like,
13:45
Speaker 1: I think it's such a great city. I love the
13:48
Speaker 1: people there. We had the event there, it was so
13:50
Speaker 1: much fun. Like I love Delco. You know, I wrote
13:53
Speaker 1: the book with Vince Papoli. I just think I'm a huge, huge,
13:58
Speaker 1: Philly as a city team, personality, culture, citizenry, fan fucking love.
14:06
Speaker 1: It couldn't agree more with you about like the Abullians,
14:11
Speaker 1: the enthusiasm, the love, the hate, the passion for Eagles fans.
14:16
Speaker 2: It's pretty hard to meet that.
14:19
Speaker 4: Yeah, And you know when I when I again, the
14:23
Speaker 4: reason I didn't think it was a big deal it
14:25
Speaker 4: was Tony Egos fans is because you know, they leaned
14:27
Speaker 4: into being the villain this Kansas City Chiefs team. So
14:30
Speaker 4: when they came out, it was tons of booze. I
14:32
Speaker 4: was like, this is only gonna fuel them even more.
14:35
Speaker 4: They just ran into an absolute juggernaut. And you know
14:38
Speaker 4: we're gonna get into it here. But obviously my Homes
14:41
Speaker 4: worst game of his career, no doubt about it. So
14:44
Speaker 4: like that's the game we always joke about where you know,
14:47
Speaker 4: we can run my little simulations. You can talk all
14:50
Speaker 4: you want about the matchup end of the day, it's
14:53
Speaker 4: all out the window when the game starts. And you know,
14:57
Speaker 4: if you run ten thousand simulations, that game happens, I
15:00
Speaker 4: don't know fifty times tops like Eagles blowout, Roll Mahomes
15:05
Speaker 4: throws pick six as three turnovers.
15:09
Speaker 3: You know, just horrible he was absolutely horrible.
15:12
Speaker 4: So yeah, I would say on our Chiefs bet, you know,
15:16
Speaker 4: didn't feel a ton of confidence on it. Felt like
15:18
Speaker 4: it was the right side because the history we've been
15:19
Speaker 4: betting it. But I did feel really confident on that under,
15:23
Speaker 4: and that one definitely hurt where it's like, you know,
15:27
Speaker 4: stupid plays happened, and basically, once it's a blowout, none
15:31
Speaker 4: of your model and none of that stuff matters. It's
15:33
Speaker 4: going to be a totally random game from that point forward.
15:35
Speaker 4: And it's like if a couple of little things break
15:38
Speaker 4: people's away, they're going to hit this over. And yeah,
15:41
Speaker 4: mahomes standing in playing the full game, you know, scoring
15:44
Speaker 4: fourteen points in the final three minutes. Absolute killer to
15:47
Speaker 4: that under. So yeah, it just was not our day
15:50
Speaker 4: brother on the betting side.
15:51
Speaker 1: So look, we had described this Super Bowl kind of it.
15:55
Speaker 1: It was all upside because of our future positions. Right,
15:59
Speaker 1: you had a lot of futures exposure on the Chiefs
16:05
Speaker 1: over the Eagles in the Super Bowl, But you also
16:08
Speaker 1: had a ton of opportunity with the Eagles and a
16:13
Speaker 1: bunch of futures you would bet on them throughout the year,
16:16
Speaker 1: both matchup and just to win the Super Bowl when
16:19
Speaker 1: you could get good numbers. I think you told me
16:20
Speaker 1: you got them at twenty to one a couple times,
16:23
Speaker 1: you know, in the middle of the season when they
16:24
Speaker 1: were two and two. I felt the same way because
16:28
Speaker 1: I had the Eagles Chiefs matchup, paying out or twenty
16:31
Speaker 1: eight to one before the game. So a lot of
16:33
Speaker 1: my bets this weekend were about maximizing upside while protecting
16:39
Speaker 1: my downside. And as you've alluded to, given our positions
16:44
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs, given the under, I turned out I
16:48
Speaker 1: needed a lot more downside protection because our Chiefs positions
16:53
Speaker 1: just did not come through for us. We had Chiefs
16:56
Speaker 1: minus one and a half Chiefs money line. Primarily the
16:59
Speaker 1: under was our big balls. But because it was the Chiefs,
17:07
Speaker 1: and because it was the Eagles defense that was really
17:11
Speaker 1: doing the damage, I kept thinking, like in the second half,
17:18
Speaker 1: I would say, when it was seventeen nothing, I was
17:20
Speaker 1: still thinking, all right, Chiefs go down, they score a touchdown,
17:24
Speaker 1: get ball in the second half seventeen fourteen. But that
17:29
Speaker 1: Aj Brown touchdown that you mentioned, that seemed out of
17:34
Speaker 1: characters being too easy to me, that was that was
17:37
Speaker 1: a tough one to swallow.
17:41
Speaker 3: A little bit. But again it's just Myhomes had a meltdown. Brother.
17:44
Speaker 4: It's like he throws that pick six and then throws
17:47
Speaker 4: that one out there and it's like, you're you're about
17:49
Speaker 4: to give up fourteen. Your defense did really well, like
17:53
Speaker 4: we've yeah, that's what I mean, absolutely donind Saquan, and
17:57
Speaker 4: you know, I love that Hurts was able to take
18:01
Speaker 4: advantage of the one on one matchups because we knew
18:03
Speaker 4: come to the game. It's like we obviously thought Mahomes
18:07
Speaker 4: was gonna step up, but it was like Hurts had
18:09
Speaker 4: to have to step up in these big moments and
18:10
Speaker 4: make big time throws. And they kept taking advantage of
18:13
Speaker 4: the one on one matchups, right because they were so
18:15
Speaker 4: hyper focused on stopping the run. But at the same time,
18:19
Speaker 4: it's like, you know, he's throwing against all pro corners,
18:22
Speaker 4: like it's not like it's a layup. And the safety
18:25
Speaker 4: is how great the tackling by the safeties of the
18:28
Speaker 4: Chiefs too. It's like, can't understand enough where they kept
18:31
Speaker 4: coming up anytime Saque was about the break when they
18:33
Speaker 4: met him in the moment and stopped them, And yeah,
18:36
Speaker 4: like we were saying, it's it's ten to nothing.
18:39
Speaker 3: Mahomes has the ball.
18:42
Speaker 4: The Eagles were kind of letting them stay in it,
18:43
Speaker 4: and it's like, Okay, if you can put a drive here,
18:45
Speaker 4: they can get back into this game.
18:47
Speaker 3: And like we just said that picked six, then I know.
18:51
Speaker 4: The turnover right afterwards. That does not happen with Mahomes.
18:54
Speaker 4: It was so at a character and just the how
18:57
Speaker 4: we drafting that D line. It's incredible how dominant they
19:00
Speaker 4: were in that game. We talked about leading up to
19:02
Speaker 4: it that we knew the Eagles had a big advantage
19:04
Speaker 4: of it, especially given him two weeks to break down
19:06
Speaker 4: tape on that Chiefs offensive line, they were going to
19:08
Speaker 4: know their weaknesses and where to attack it. But even that,
19:13
Speaker 4: it was you couldn't believe how hard they played the
19:16
Speaker 4: whole game, Like even the second half, they're still getting sacked,
19:18
Speaker 4: still getting pressure, still have somehow had fresh legs, and
19:21
Speaker 4: it's like we knew coming in it was the same
19:23
Speaker 4: thing we talked about Brady and Mahomes.
19:25
Speaker 3: Now he's lost two Super Bowls the same way.
19:27
Speaker 4: If you get pressure with four' that's the only way
19:31
Speaker 4: to beat them, that's the only kryptonite. And you know,
19:34
Speaker 4: I've watched pieces of it. Obviously I was in a
19:37
Speaker 4: stable mind. But going back watching some of the All
19:38
Speaker 4: twenty two, if they weren't getting that front four pressure,
19:42
Speaker 4: this game would have been way closer. Like he had
19:45
Speaker 4: open guys streaking down the field. He had a lot
19:46
Speaker 4: of options in this game, Mahomes, but.
19:49
Speaker 3: He just was never right.
19:50
Speaker 4: Even early on when they weren't getting tons of pressure
19:52
Speaker 4: like that first two three and outs, he was missing
19:55
Speaker 4: easy passes to Kelsey and Kelsey's dropping the ball a
19:58
Speaker 4: couple of times, and it's like everything we joke, Everything
20:01
Speaker 4: just went wrong though for this Chiefs team.
20:03
Speaker 3: So, yeah, the the Eagles better.
20:06
Speaker 4: As we talked coming into it too, Like all the
20:08
Speaker 4: pros I know that were betting the Eagles after the game, Yeah,
20:12
Speaker 4: they were super confident like that, But I was with
20:14
Speaker 4: them in the books. Everyone before the game is like
20:16
Speaker 4: if I made a huge fucking mistake going against Mahomes,
20:19
Speaker 4: And it's like, you know, that's that's the issue we
20:22
Speaker 4: had coming into this. It's just we've been burned so
20:25
Speaker 4: many times in this exact scenario that Mahomes did beat
20:27
Speaker 4: the better team.
20:28
Speaker 3: This is how you have to beat them. You have
20:30
Speaker 3: to literally cut the guys head off.
20:31
Speaker 4: You have to be up by twenty four and don't
20:33
Speaker 4: take the foot off the gas like that. You know,
20:36
Speaker 4: that deep ball by Mahomes, I mean by hurts Devonte
20:39
Speaker 4: Smith was my favorite play of the whole game because
20:42
Speaker 4: that was like, there, fuck you, you ain't getting back
20:45
Speaker 4: in this. We are not slowing down at all. And
20:47
Speaker 4: that was really sole crushing to the Chiefs. It was
20:49
Speaker 4: at that point thirty four to nothing, game over, no
20:53
Speaker 4: doubt about it. So yeah, just Kellen Moore. Incredible play
20:56
Speaker 4: calling by him as well in this game.
20:59
Speaker 1: So it's interesting. This was such a no clear edge game, right.
21:08
Speaker 1: I don't know if you've seen a Super Bowl like this,
21:10
Speaker 1: but it's rare where it really is about opinion and
21:15
Speaker 1: everybody knows everything that the model says. Everybody knows everything
21:19
Speaker 1: about where the advantages are and the disadvantages are. And
21:22
Speaker 1: if you were betting one side or the other, it's
21:24
Speaker 1: not because you saw anything different than anybody else. You
21:28
Speaker 1: didn't have the secret formula. Your model wasn't so much better.
21:33
Speaker 1: It was just you either believe in Patrick Mahomes and
21:35
Speaker 1: Andy Reid or you believe in the overall talent of
21:38
Speaker 1: the Eagles. Have you ever seen anything like that? I
21:40
Speaker 1: don't think I've seen something like that where there's no
21:44
Speaker 1: real number edge and it's all opinion.
21:48
Speaker 3: A little bit. I mean, honestly, the most shocking part
21:51
Speaker 3: was how simple was to break it down at its core,
21:54
Speaker 3: like mister Joe Pubrick's coming with the sportsbook saying the
21:57
Speaker 3: same thing as professionals or Sandwich is the better team,
22:00
Speaker 3: but I like the quarterback and Andy Reid, and it's like,
22:04
Speaker 3: you know, everyone basically had the same view of it.
22:06
Speaker 3: It's just.
22:09
Speaker 4: Yeah, the most shocking part was that there was no
22:11
Speaker 4: one coming in betting just big money, right. There was
22:14
Speaker 4: no pro groups I knew that were taking huge stands
22:18
Speaker 4: on the Eagles and vice versa.
22:20
Speaker 3: It's like I knew some really smart.
22:22
Speaker 4: Respective money we put huge money on the under, and
22:25
Speaker 4: obviously that got smoked. But it was like, you know,
22:28
Speaker 4: this number never ran from Eagles minus or Eagles plus
22:32
Speaker 4: one and a half alway to Eagles minus two or
22:34
Speaker 4: Eagles minus one and a half, Like that never happened,
22:36
Speaker 4: just because you know, pros were scary to put up
22:39
Speaker 4: such huge money against Mahomes in the spot. But obviously
22:43
Speaker 4: not all of them. Like I said, there's a lot
22:44
Speaker 4: of really smart guys who did come to other side,
22:46
Speaker 4: but it was always it was always them betting it
22:48
Speaker 4: because what we talked about it was like, Okay, their
22:50
Speaker 4: model makes it. Eagles are the favorite. They trust their model,
22:53
Speaker 4: that's how they got here, and they bet it. And yeah,
22:57
Speaker 4: we trusted the trends and the Homes factor of if
23:01
Speaker 4: he keeps this game close, he'll steal it in the end.
23:03
Speaker 3: And you know, two.
23:04
Speaker 4: Super bowls now that he's lost, he's been absolutely blown
23:08
Speaker 4: out in both, and you know, looking in the future
23:11
Speaker 4: or people looking back on this, it won't tell the
23:13
Speaker 4: whole picture. Right forty to twenty two, this was really
23:16
Speaker 4: a forty to six type of game, like this was
23:20
Speaker 4: an at total domination. So yeah, I would say too
23:24
Speaker 4: happiest fan bases right now are the Eagles and the
23:27
Speaker 4: Patriots fans. Holy should have they been loud about Mahomes
23:31
Speaker 4: being humbled and Chiefs fans being humbled, and yeah, they
23:34
Speaker 4: get the hold onto Brady still being the goat, no
23:36
Speaker 4: doubt about it. Brady at getting blown out like that.
23:40
Speaker 4: I mean, he's never been blown out in any Super
23:42
Speaker 4: Bowl like that. Any of his losses, he always was
23:45
Speaker 4: basically a one possession game. So tough, tough day for
23:49
Speaker 4: Mahomes and his goat talk obviously still one of the greatest,
23:53
Speaker 4: but you know, it's someone that goes through the history
23:56
Speaker 4: of football.
23:57
Speaker 3: It's still Brady.
23:58
Speaker 4: It's still Joe Montana, right, Joe Montana four and oh,
24:02
Speaker 4: I know it's a different error. Fucking a, it's forty
24:04
Speaker 4: years ago that Super Bowl, but come on, like, you
24:08
Speaker 4: have to give some respect to the past.
24:09
Speaker 3: And it's when you look at that stuff.
24:11
Speaker 4: How impressive that is Joe Montana go four and oh
24:14
Speaker 4: it's insane. So yeah, we again in these twenty nine homes.
24:18
Speaker 4: He'll have plenty of opportunities. But man, was that that
24:22
Speaker 4: was pretty humbling to them in that fan base because
24:25
Speaker 4: they were loud, they printed the three peat Church Chad,
24:27
Speaker 4: they were feeling themselves.
24:28
Speaker 3: So yeah, pretty pretty wild that.
24:30
Speaker 4: That that game just got absolutely blown out.
24:33
Speaker 1: Oh look, Mahomes has been five Super Bowls in seven
24:36
Speaker 1: years and he's not even thirty years old. I feel
24:39
Speaker 1: like there's gonna be plenty of opportunities for him to
24:43
Speaker 1: get back there. I do think that the two times
24:46
Speaker 1: he's been blown out, like you said, it's been about
24:48
Speaker 1: pressure up the middle, and this offensive line the entire
24:53
Speaker 1: season has been the Achilles Hill. For this team, it's
24:56
Speaker 1: where all the penalties are, It's where all the bad
24:59
Speaker 1: play is, especial on the edges. They know what they
25:03
Speaker 1: have to do. They can be really confident about Xavier Worthy.
25:07
Speaker 1: They might need to figure out a little bit of
25:09
Speaker 1: help in the running game. They got to figure out
25:11
Speaker 1: Travis Kelce. I think they can be really confident in
25:14
Speaker 1: their defense. But I was just surprised that over the
25:19
Speaker 1: two weeks Andy Reid did not figure out where he
25:23
Speaker 1: was going to get extra support and protection for Patrick Mahomes,
25:26
Speaker 1: and then they couldn't make that adjustment in the second half. Like,
25:31
Speaker 1: what was your take on that? Did you see anything? Like,
25:33
Speaker 1: I'm just astonished that they couldn't. We were betting on
25:37
Speaker 1: Andy Reid doing the right thing and finding a way
25:39
Speaker 1: to protect his quarterback, and he never did it.
25:42
Speaker 3: But there was no adjustment to be made for them, unfortunately.
25:44
Speaker 4: And that was probably the toughest part of that game
25:47
Speaker 4: is that, to me, they did have a couple of
25:51
Speaker 4: things planned and scripted. Like I said, when people go
25:53
Speaker 4: back and watch, there are open guys and there are
25:56
Speaker 4: timing routes where if the Eagles weren't so dominant on
25:59
Speaker 4: their four, my homes would have had a pretty solid game.
26:02
Speaker 4: We eventually got a rhythm, but he never got into
26:05
Speaker 4: a rhythm at all. Like that was the most damning
26:07
Speaker 4: part of that first half was they never let him
26:09
Speaker 4: get into a rhythm and they just kept bringing the pressure,
26:12
Speaker 4: kept bringing the pressure of the front four. And you know,
26:14
Speaker 4: there were no justice to me because they don't have
26:16
Speaker 4: they didn't have the pieces.
26:17
Speaker 3: Like if you're the Bills and the Ravens or even
26:21
Speaker 3: the Bengals.
26:22
Speaker 4: Wherever Miles Garrett or whatever, you just need to attack
26:26
Speaker 4: the edge rusher, like the there is there's a path
26:29
Speaker 4: to beating this Chiefs team and taking down how great
26:32
Speaker 4: they are, and we've seen it now. It all starts
26:34
Speaker 4: on that front four, Like you have to find guys
26:36
Speaker 4: that are difference makers.
26:37
Speaker 3: And you know, Eagle's been very lucky in the draft.
26:40
Speaker 4: How he's done a great job that basically all those
26:43
Speaker 4: guys were draft picks, Like there's no we had no
26:46
Speaker 4: free agent guys on that starting on the unit. So
26:49
Speaker 4: you know, obviously you need a draft wall, but there's
26:51
Speaker 4: other ways to go about it. But you know, and
26:53
Speaker 4: you read his his plan was quick passes and try
26:57
Speaker 4: to establish the run. Game, could never stayle plish a
27:00
Speaker 4: run game, and on their quick passes, Mahomes never could
27:02
Speaker 4: stand in the pocket. Like you just said, the middle
27:04
Speaker 4: was always collapsing, so it was either always having to
27:06
Speaker 4: step up, which they were planning on like they never
27:09
Speaker 4: had the edges rushes too far upfield. Again, it was
27:12
Speaker 4: just total domination by VIC. And you know, we talk
27:16
Speaker 4: all the time about how important coaching is. You saw
27:18
Speaker 4: it on both sides of the ball, and that Eagles
27:20
Speaker 4: like Eagles OC and DC, we're both out coaching the
27:25
Speaker 4: other team's offensive coiner and defensive coiner. So yeah, that
27:29
Speaker 4: that to me was an advantage we thought we had
27:32
Speaker 4: with the Chiefs and it wasn't any way like you
27:35
Speaker 4: just said. And the unfortunate part for them they didn't
27:37
Speaker 4: have the guys to make the adjustments, Like there is
27:39
Speaker 4: no guy that you can move around the offensive line
27:42
Speaker 4: to help fix youre a problem, like it's they've made
27:45
Speaker 4: the moves, it's done.
27:46
Speaker 3: What's done is done with the Chiefs.
27:47
Speaker 4: So yeah, they're in a weird spot where because they
27:50
Speaker 4: aren't drafting great, it's gonna be hard to improve.
27:53
Speaker 3: The offensive line.
27:53
Speaker 4: Like they don't have the money to go out there
27:55
Speaker 4: and get another guy. They've spent the money, right, they
27:58
Speaker 4: have an all Pro center and all Pro guard who
28:00
Speaker 4: had had to kick out to tackle, like it's just
28:03
Speaker 4: it's just too much. So yeah, for this Chiefs team,
28:07
Speaker 4: you know, like Chad, you said, we expect them to
28:09
Speaker 4: be back, but you also could say to yourself, they
28:14
Speaker 4: have a lot of things that are about to change
28:15
Speaker 4: going forward. Right, They're most likely gonna lose Kelsey to retirement.
28:18
Speaker 4: Like it's it's going to be different here going forward
28:21
Speaker 4: for this team. So yeah, pretty interesting to see that
28:24
Speaker 4: they're the favorite right now. A lot of books for
28:26
Speaker 4: next year's Super Bowl, where you know, these other teams
28:30
Speaker 4: that they've been beating up on, they're all improving as well,
28:34
Speaker 4: like the Bills and the Ravens. So yeah, I'm I'm
28:37
Speaker 4: looking ahead right now. But just looking at this right now,
28:39
Speaker 4: people want to say, well, the Eagles just gave out
28:41
Speaker 4: the blueprint. That's like Saint Tampa gave out the blueprint.
28:44
Speaker 4: I'm about to beat Mahomes, right, It's that's just lazy,
28:47
Speaker 4: stupid talk. So the adjustments will be made by this
28:51
Speaker 4: Chiefs team. We know how impressive and great they are,
28:53
Speaker 4: it's just what are they gonna do if they don't
28:55
Speaker 4: have the money to attack that offensive line. To me,
28:57
Speaker 4: that's that's the biggest weakness on this team right now,
28:59
Speaker 4: is that offensive line.
29:02
Speaker 1: I want to get on the other side of our
29:04
Speaker 1: next ad read and talk a little bit about futures.
29:07
Speaker 1: I got a couple other things that I want to review,
29:10
Speaker 1: because once our Chiefs bet was dead, we still had
29:13
Speaker 1: a lot of bets in play, and like it made
29:16
Speaker 1: the game really exciting and happy for about You know,
29:21
Speaker 1: if you were not a diehard Eagles fans, that we
29:24
Speaker 1: can talk about for a second. Simon as America's beloved
29:28
Speaker 1: longtime Long Island poet laureate Billy Joel once saying, here
29:32
Speaker 1: we are in the ninth two men out, three men on.
29:37
Speaker 1: Nowhere to look but inside, where we all respond to pressure.
29:43
Speaker 1: And at the risk of mixing sports metaphors, last night's
29:46
Speaker 1: Super Bowl was a masterclass in building and responding to
29:49
Speaker 1: pressure in all definitions general sports culture applied pressure to
29:54
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, to three Peete the Eagles pressure Patrick Mahomes,
29:57
Speaker 1: Tom Brady's A Name commentary put tremendous pressure and the
30:00
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Speaker 1: That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites, all right. So
30:52
Speaker 1: in the second half of the game, I moved from
30:55
Speaker 1: the living room where my son and his boys, you know,
30:57
Speaker 1: ten of them were watching the game, and I got
31:01
Speaker 1: to say it was a blast watching with them. In
31:03
Speaker 1: the first half. They all had very serious opinions on
31:06
Speaker 1: the Kendrick Lamar halftime show. They freaked when Serena was
31:10
Speaker 1: shown they were maybe a bit too interested, and where
31:14
Speaker 1: the first song was going to be and whether or
31:16
Speaker 1: not it was an unreleased song. I'll leave that to
31:19
Speaker 1: everybody's imagination about why they might have been interested.
31:22
Speaker 2: In the second half, when it was all clear my.
31:26
Speaker 1: Chiefs bets were dead, I still had so many props alive.
31:30
Speaker 1: And I don't know about you, Simon, it felt like
31:33
Speaker 1: every play in the second half was make or break,
31:37
Speaker 1: and I still had a lot of optimism and a
31:39
Speaker 1: lot of enthusiasm.
31:40
Speaker 2: I don't know about you.
31:41
Speaker 4: It was fun, but I'm definitely like the people I
31:43
Speaker 4: was whether absolutely hating on me because I had basically
31:46
Speaker 4: all under props on Saquon and just being super negative
31:50
Speaker 4: every time you got stuffed. I was like, yes, And
31:53
Speaker 4: the no touchdown prop was just a great bet. And
31:56
Speaker 4: I remember, you know, I don't know how many people
32:01
Speaker 4: it was, but you basically you've probably heard it as well.
32:03
Speaker 4: It was like ninety nine percent of the bets were
32:06
Speaker 4: on his touchdown. Yeah, And you know when you hear
32:09
Speaker 4: that stuff, it's like, Okay, gotta be screw chair, I
32:12
Speaker 4: gotta go the other way, gotta gotta take me a touchdown,
32:15
Speaker 4: And it is crazy. It was plus one fifty. But yeah,
32:18
Speaker 4: I would say the happy smoke free was definitely Devonte
32:21
Speaker 4: Smith getting that touchdown basically hit his over prop, hit
32:26
Speaker 4: his anytime touchdown and you know shut out to our
32:29
Speaker 4: got Chris Raybond he gave out uh DeVante Smith and
32:34
Speaker 4: it might have been him and Sean gave out worthy
32:35
Speaker 4: touchdown like that that parlay, So that was really nice
32:39
Speaker 4: hit as well.
32:39
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's why we bet props, right.
32:41
Speaker 4: It's even if your BET's dead on the game, you
32:44
Speaker 4: still have a ton of fun. But for someone like
32:46
Speaker 4: me personally, yeah, as soon as I lost that.
32:50
Speaker 3: Under, it was going to be a losing day no
32:51
Speaker 3: matter what.
32:52
Speaker 4: Like, I was really heavy on the under, so I
32:55
Speaker 4: wish I could bet more on props.
32:57
Speaker 3: It's just a limited market.
32:58
Speaker 4: The books are smart that way, but when it comes
33:00
Speaker 4: to totals and sides, they'll take all my money I
33:02
Speaker 4: want to give to him. So yeah, unfortunately ate away
33:07
Speaker 4: some of it. But yeah, got crushed on that game
33:10
Speaker 4: going over.
33:11
Speaker 3: It was tough.
33:13
Speaker 2: The two props.
33:14
Speaker 1: I was sort of going back and forth on one
33:18
Speaker 1: was DeVante Smith, which cash and was great, you gave
33:22
Speaker 1: it away.
33:22
Speaker 2: Un convinced me. You gave him over fifty plus.
33:24
Speaker 1: Yards and he was having a great game. You also
33:28
Speaker 1: gave away DeVante Smith to lead the game in receiving yardage,
33:34
Speaker 1: which I bet, but I also bet Sean Kerner gave
33:39
Speaker 1: out unconvinced me yesterday a forty to one triple play
33:46
Speaker 1: that through the first half.
33:49
Speaker 2: Wasn't awful.
33:51
Speaker 1: It was Hurts to lead the game in passing yardage,
33:56
Speaker 1: Barkley to lead in rushing yardage, Xavier Worthy to lead
34:01
Speaker 1: in receiving yardage. And also there was the Xavier Worthy
34:06
Speaker 1: anytime touchdown that Nick Giffen was talking about all week
34:09
Speaker 1: that cash that was great. But about midway through the
34:14
Speaker 1: third quarter, when Xavier Worthy finally started to sort of
34:19
Speaker 1: get into gear, that forty to one prop, the triple
34:24
Speaker 1: play was totally in play. And the logic that Kerner
34:30
Speaker 1: had was, Barkley will, even if he's not getting a
34:36
Speaker 1: lot of yardage, will have so much volume. He's got
34:39
Speaker 1: the highest ceiling to lead the game in rushing and
34:43
Speaker 1: he It was there that cat. That prop was right
34:46
Speaker 1: there until about midway through the third when no midway
34:53
Speaker 1: through the fourth, Jalen Hurts scrambles for seventeen yards bypasses
34:58
Speaker 1: Barkley and you knew after that there was like one
35:01
Speaker 1: or two series left he was getting bottled and then
35:04
Speaker 1: he was off the field.
35:05
Speaker 2: And then that that prop was dead.
35:08
Speaker 1: But for a second, it felt like that prop was
35:10
Speaker 1: going to clean up all my mess during the day.
35:12
Speaker 4: Yeah, nice hit by when that bet hurts to lead
35:15
Speaker 4: the game of rushing. I believe it was six to one,
35:17
Speaker 4: seven to one, a lot of.
35:18
Speaker 3: Books, So that was a nice bet people that hit it.
35:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, good forever.
35:22
Speaker 1: I mean, there were a lot of bets like over
35:24
Speaker 1: the course of the week that people were hitting you
35:26
Speaker 1: right about that people talked about there were a little
35:28
Speaker 1: bit long shots. Nick Giffen on bet What Happens Live
35:31
Speaker 1: gave out a DeVante Smith plus nine point fifty to
35:35
Speaker 1: score a touchdown in the second half. Some fun, some
35:39
Speaker 1: really fun long shot bets that were cashing. That under
35:48
Speaker 1: was a little bit of a kick in the dick.
35:50
Speaker 3: Yeah.
35:51
Speaker 4: Yeah, And again I'd love to be pissed Andy Reid
35:54
Speaker 4: for keeping my homes out there, but like it's Super
35:57
Speaker 4: Bowl stats, So it's like, why would he not go
35:59
Speaker 4: out there keep trying to sling the ball like this
36:01
Speaker 4: is he should try to pat his stats, like because
36:04
Speaker 4: it basically his I mean, people are gonna bring it
36:07
Speaker 4: up like he was at probably at one point was
36:09
Speaker 4: that negative forty five points in all five of his
36:12
Speaker 4: games total, because every game, every time he's won, he's
36:16
Speaker 4: won by what like three points and six points, and
36:18
Speaker 4: now there's two losses were both absolute blowouts.
36:21
Speaker 3: So I got why.
36:22
Speaker 4: Mahomes was trying to get that numbers back up. He
36:25
Speaker 4: just he's competitor, right, He's in his mind, he's never
36:28
Speaker 4: really dead.
36:29
Speaker 3: So yeah, that that was just brutal. It's like, you know, it.
36:35
Speaker 4: Was always gonna go over, right, We've seen this time
36:37
Speaker 4: of time game when when there's an outrun like that,
36:39
Speaker 4: a huge blowout type of game, unless the other team
36:42
Speaker 4: just totally gives up, it's it's gonna go over. And
36:45
Speaker 4: Mahomes is never gonna totally give up. So yeah, it's
36:48
Speaker 4: crazy this game, you know, and we're one side was
36:51
Speaker 4: up thirty four to nothing. The fact that this did
36:53
Speaker 4: reach sixty two points is pretty insane.
36:56
Speaker 1: There was a point, you know, I'd bet Mahomes under
36:59
Speaker 1: thirty six and a half pass attempts, and then I
37:02
Speaker 1: had also bet him under two hundred and fifty five
37:07
Speaker 1: and a half passing nice yards. No, it's not. The
37:11
Speaker 1: under on the pass attempts is great. He had two
37:15
Speaker 1: hundred and two passing yards going into that last drive.
37:19
Speaker 1: When he got the ball at the fifty first play,
37:22
Speaker 1: there was a fifty yard touchdown. I forgot who caught it,
37:27
Speaker 1: but he ends up it was Worthy. He ends up
37:30
Speaker 1: with two hundred and fifty seven.
37:33
Speaker 3: Oh, it's brutal passing yards.
37:36
Speaker 2: Last play of the game I had. I had like.
37:40
Speaker 1: The two bets that like I still had a shot
37:42
Speaker 1: to cash that were not props like you know, Parlay
37:46
Speaker 1: long shot props were passing attempts and under Mahomes passing yardage.
37:51
Speaker 1: Got the passing attempts got it canceled right out by
37:55
Speaker 1: that fifty yard bombed the Xavier Worthy.
38:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was fucking brutal.
38:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, some brutal beats.
38:05
Speaker 4: Definitely, A lot of people had Carson Wentz to take
38:08
Speaker 4: a snap in the game. That was a bad beat
38:11
Speaker 4: because they just never put him in, even in junk time.
38:14
Speaker 3: And you know, someone like me got crazy lucky.
38:17
Speaker 4: I basically the game on the show as a non
38:20
Speaker 4: QB have a pass attempt. But a lot of people
38:22
Speaker 4: like me also bet anyone other than the starting two
38:25
Speaker 4: quarterbacks to have a pass attempt in the game.
38:27
Speaker 3: God bless you.
38:28
Speaker 4: Kenny Pickett came in through just a nothing ball but
38:31
Speaker 4: got us that cover.
38:32
Speaker 3: So again it's just also.
38:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, what's your feeling on Nick Sirianni right now?
38:41
Speaker 4: I mean obviously, like I gotta like the guy, I
38:43
Speaker 4: gotta respect him.
38:45
Speaker 3: You know, he he does.
38:47
Speaker 4: He did do a lot of dumb shit was why
38:49
Speaker 4: I hated him, and him not be able to figure
38:53
Speaker 4: out the blitz last year really just took me to
38:56
Speaker 4: another level of just fucking hating the man. I just
38:59
Speaker 4: he made he made Hurts look so bad where it's like,
39:02
Speaker 4: if he had proper coaching like he did this year,
39:05
Speaker 4: he shouldn't have struggled so much against the blitz like
39:07
Speaker 4: you saw in that game. They never stopped blitzing him
39:10
Speaker 4: and he made one bad mistake on that pick. Other
39:12
Speaker 4: than that, he was great against the blitz. So you know,
39:15
Speaker 4: now that we sit here right now, like you can't
39:17
Speaker 4: say a bad word about Sirianni, Like I think he's
39:19
Speaker 4: second all time and wins in his first four seasons,
39:23
Speaker 4: two super Bowls, and even as presser last night he
39:27
Speaker 4: said what I think he should say, which is coaching
39:29
Speaker 4: is a lot easier when you have some of the
39:31
Speaker 4: best players in the world. And that's what my point
39:34
Speaker 4: from the get go is that how he has put
39:36
Speaker 4: together this absolute juggering out of the team, he just
39:38
Speaker 4: needed the right maestro to run it. And you know
39:42
Speaker 4: everything I've read and heard these last especially the last
39:45
Speaker 4: four or five weeks about Sirianni always being there for
39:48
Speaker 4: these guys, you know him and Big Dom, Like, there's
39:50
Speaker 4: a reason these guys are getting arrested. They're not getting
39:52
Speaker 4: in trouble off the field, right, it's him and Big
39:55
Speaker 4: Tom going to these guys homes at night and dealing
39:57
Speaker 4: with a lot of their off field shit. And you
39:59
Speaker 4: know the that he ran that video every week of
40:02
Speaker 4: Peanut Tilleman punching the ball out on guys, and then
40:04
Speaker 4: in the playoffs they had a bunch of big time punchouts.
40:07
Speaker 4: And it's like, that's the intangible stuff that we don't
40:10
Speaker 4: know because we just see that he's not doing much
40:13
Speaker 4: game on the field, like game planning and you know,
40:16
Speaker 4: running the offense or the defense. He's just a guy
40:18
Speaker 4: out there. But the more you look into it's like, no,
40:21
Speaker 4: this is the motivator of men. So yeah, give him
40:24
Speaker 4: his flowers right now. I don't put him on the
40:26
Speaker 4: same level as I do as Peterson or Andy Reid,
40:29
Speaker 4: but you know he's not far off. Like we have
40:33
Speaker 4: another one or two winning seasons and make it back
40:36
Speaker 4: to another super Bowl, It's probably gonna be tough tonight.
40:38
Speaker 4: He's probably gonna be the best quarterback in Eagles history,
40:40
Speaker 4: just like you know right now, Hurts, he's twenty six,
40:44
Speaker 4: probably end up being the best quarterback in Eagle's history
40:47
Speaker 4: if he keeps going on this trajectory. Like even if
40:49
Speaker 4: we only get six or seven more years out of
40:51
Speaker 4: that was Legs, It's it's a really big opening right now.
40:56
Speaker 4: Like Darius Slay talked about last night, like that's a
40:58
Speaker 4: really young, hungry defense that you know, we're gonna lose
41:02
Speaker 4: a lot of guys here at fre Agency that are
41:04
Speaker 4: really important to this team, but the core is going
41:06
Speaker 4: to be there. So I think we know the offenses together,
41:11
Speaker 4: right Barkley is gonna be back no matter what next year. Smith,
41:14
Speaker 4: the offensive line, I think only guy we loses might
41:17
Speaker 4: be the guard might be Beckman. You know, we got
41:21
Speaker 4: in for the Jets just off a one year contract.
41:23
Speaker 4: So it's it's a type of team that me and
41:27
Speaker 4: you joke all the time. You fade the team like this,
41:30
Speaker 4: this Eagles team like you fade them. A young team
41:33
Speaker 4: wins the Super Bowl, usually fade them the next year.
41:36
Speaker 4: So that's gonna be interesting diving into that, just because
41:39
Speaker 4: everything points to this team regress, regressing super hard, like schedule.
41:45
Speaker 3: All of the players are gonna lose.
41:46
Speaker 4: The coaches we expect them to lose, like once again,
41:48
Speaker 4: Hurts go have another new offensive coordinator. So you know,
41:53
Speaker 4: I'm gonna enjoy it right now as an Eagles fan,
41:55
Speaker 4: but as a better I'm seeing a lot of opportunities already.
42:00
Speaker 1: Let's talk about that for just a couple of minutes,
42:05
Speaker 1: because I'm looking at the futures right now. Kansas City
42:10
Speaker 1: plus six fifty, Eagles plus six fifty. We had Brandon
42:14
Speaker 1: Anderson on last week, we got who talked about like
42:19
Speaker 1: the Niners and he wrote about it on an Action
42:21
Speaker 1: today at seventeen to one, Bill's plus seven hundred Ravens
42:26
Speaker 1: plus seven hundred Lions plus nine hundred. So have you
42:32
Speaker 1: made any bets yet? I've made one futures bet so far.
42:35
Speaker 1: Have you made any futures bets.
42:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say pretty interesting.
42:38
Speaker 4: Eagles actually just moved to the favorite now, So they
42:41
Speaker 4: just moved a plus six fifty at a couple of books.
42:43
Speaker 4: So people are hammering this one day after right, they're
42:46
Speaker 4: going to cash their tickets in.
42:48
Speaker 2: Yeah.
42:49
Speaker 4: I can see a couple of people feeling loyal to
42:50
Speaker 4: this Eagles team already betten them. But to me, there's
42:53
Speaker 4: no good value there right now. Shockingly, one of my
42:57
Speaker 4: favorite bets is the Green Bay Packers. You can get
42:59
Speaker 4: them twenty one. This is basically a team that I
43:04
Speaker 4: wanted to fade fate faite coming into this season because
43:07
Speaker 4: of the hype. Now people are off the scent, and
43:12
Speaker 4: when I look back, I'm like, Okay, if they had
43:14
Speaker 4: a ton of injuries and Jordan Love was banged up
43:17
Speaker 4: heading to that playoff game, if you can get healthy
43:20
Speaker 4: and they do go out there and get a T.
43:22
Speaker 4: Higgins or somebody to attack their number one receiver. This
43:26
Speaker 4: is a high potent offense with a very young defense
43:28
Speaker 4: that you know, we've talked over the years, They've always
43:30
Speaker 4: drafted the defense. They've never figured it out defensively, whatever
43:34
Speaker 4: that may be. They just have never drafted, right, Maybe
43:36
Speaker 4: never got the right coaching. That's gonna be the major
43:39
Speaker 4: question here. But the fact that they are, you know,
43:43
Speaker 4: twenty five, twenty four to one right now, that they
43:45
Speaker 4: are below the Commanders, They're below Sincey right now, there's
43:50
Speaker 4: a lot of good opportunity there in that in a
43:52
Speaker 4: division where coming into the year once again, everyone's gonna
43:55
Speaker 4: be talking about Detroit, everyone's gonna be talking about the Bears.
43:59
Speaker 3: There should be some excitement right.
44:00
Speaker 4: For this Vikings team if it's JJ or depends what
44:03
Speaker 4: they do at the quarterback position in right KOs he
44:05
Speaker 4: just wants coach of the year, you know. I just
44:08
Speaker 4: think Green Bay is the team that's been left for
44:09
Speaker 4: dead right now. So that's that's the first bet I made.
44:12
Speaker 4: I bet them at twenty five to one. I'm seeing
44:14
Speaker 4: a lot of books now have them at twenty four
44:16
Speaker 4: to one. So still still good value to me on
44:18
Speaker 4: that Green Bay team.
44:20
Speaker 1: I did bet the Niners seventeen to one. I liked
44:22
Speaker 1: Brandon's logic on the Niners, not having done any sort
44:27
Speaker 1: of real thinking about this yet, but party being healthy,
44:32
Speaker 1: are you coming back? McCaffrey coming back, Robert Salah taking
44:36
Speaker 1: over a defense that even when they weren't getting good coaching.
44:41
Speaker 1: They all were at high levels in terms of DVOA.
44:45
Speaker 1: They still performed really well as an offense with running
44:48
Speaker 1: backs nobody had heard of. And again I'm parroting some
44:51
Speaker 1: of Brandon's logic here, but Shanahan has been to five
44:56
Speaker 1: the past seven NFC Championship game. So took a flyer
45:00
Speaker 1: on Shanton. He tends to do it like there's a
45:04
Speaker 1: down year and then he comes back right.
45:06
Speaker 2: So I like the Packers a lot too.
45:08
Speaker 1: I'll probably play the Packers just so I can get
45:11
Speaker 1: some kind of you know, hedge as it gets later
45:14
Speaker 1: in the year and load up on some NFC teams.
45:17
Speaker 1: But I like your idea too, Niners and Packers. That's
45:21
Speaker 1: where we're going to make our first futures bets.
45:25
Speaker 4: Like obviously like we like cha just said this is
45:27
Speaker 4: super super early, So like say, like a team, I
45:31
Speaker 4: kind of like like the Rams, right, Rams were a
45:33
Speaker 4: play away from beating this upsetting this Eagles team.
45:36
Speaker 3: There's too much unknown with Stafford.
45:38
Speaker 4: That's my hesitation here is like I want to take them,
45:41
Speaker 4: but my fear is that they do move on for
45:42
Speaker 4: Stafford or he does have bad blood with them. Because
45:45
Speaker 4: all this off field stuff with Cooper Cup and him
45:48
Speaker 4: not liked it, but he is. I think his contract
45:52
Speaker 4: he should be there next year, but that it is
45:54
Speaker 4: a guy that couldn't move. So like there, it's intriguing
45:57
Speaker 4: into the thirty three to one. I just went in
45:59
Speaker 4: better right now because of all the unknown. So I know,
46:01
Speaker 4: I've had a couple of people ask how I felt
46:03
Speaker 4: about the Rams, and I think chat just nail it
46:05
Speaker 4: two with his forty nine ers. Take where it's like
46:07
Speaker 4: the Rams. They got away with one win in this
46:10
Speaker 4: division this year because it was a down year with
46:11
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers, we don't expect the same next year.
46:14
Speaker 4: Like they start one and four next year, it'd be
46:16
Speaker 4: really tough to come back and win the division like
46:18
Speaker 4: they did this year.
46:21
Speaker 1: All right, a great year. Thanks to everybody for sticking
46:23
Speaker 1: with us. So much fun to play these games and
46:26
Speaker 1: to talk through them with Simon and to get the
46:30
Speaker 1: feedback from everybody, and both positive and negative, because we
46:34
Speaker 1: know feedback as a gift. So if you're in Chicago,
46:37
Speaker 1: mark your calendar for Saturday, March twenty ninth, Simon and
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Speaker 1: I will be there doing a favorite event, probably have
46:42
Speaker 1: some special guests talking college basketball too well.
46:45
Speaker 2: More details to follow.
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