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Set 2: The Almanac (w/ Aaron Schatz) · Stugotz and Company

• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Taylor put it on the poll.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Is there anything better than a football almanac?
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: I know?
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Football season is here, Aaron Schatz is here. We have
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: a game for Aaron towards the end of the segment
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: that I am very excited about. We will get to
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: that again at the end of this segment. His almanac
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: is out. You can purchase it at ftnfantasy dot com
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: slash almanac.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: What goes in to a football almanac?
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Aaron Schatz, Oh, my god.
• 0:47
  Speaker 4: First of all, I put all these numbers together. We
• 0:50
  Speaker 4: have all the advanced stats from the season, and then
• 0:53
  Speaker 4: everybody watches a lot of film on whatever teams that
• 0:55
  Speaker 4: they've been assigned, and then they write chapters. So there's
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: chapters on all thirty two teams with what we think
• 1:01
  Speaker 4: is going to happen this year and where every team
• 1:03
  Speaker 4: is set up, and then all the fantasy projections and
• 1:06
  Speaker 4: all the write ups of all the fantasy players, you know,
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers. It's huge. It's almost
• 1:12
  Speaker 4: five hundred pages. And this is the twenty second year
• 1:16
  Speaker 4: that we've done the preseason book.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Wow, So it sounds like an army of people to
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: put this together.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: I thought it was just Aaron Shatz.
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: I mean no, no, I do the numbers. I do
• 1:25
  Speaker 4: the projections, I do the editing. There's about a dozen writers, well,
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: I think it's like eight or nine writers.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: So when you do the team projections, what goes into that? Like,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: how are you guys figuring out who you think is
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: going to be the best team in the NFL this year.
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: We look at our ratings from the last couple of years.
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: We look at certain things that tend to regress to
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: the means stronger than other things, like, for example, takeaways,
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: especially on defense, regress stronger than you know yards. We
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: look at personnel changes, We look at coaching changes, and
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: then we even look at games away home, like if
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: you played in Europe last year and now you have
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: an extra home game this year, you're going to do
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: a little bit better. So we look at all that stuff,
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: and then we simulate the season fifty thousand times, and
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: that gives us a range of possibilities for every team.
• 2:14
  Speaker 5: Wow, Eric, are you like the end all be all
• 2:17
  Speaker 5: when it comes to these projections and stuff? Because I
• 2:20
  Speaker 5: did some writing for a website and on the New
• 2:23
  Speaker 5: York Jets, and they asked us all to predict how
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: the season would go, and unfortunately, all the thirty two
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: writers came back with a winning record except for like
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: one team. So like, are you the one that goes no, no, no, no, no,
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: the Jets aren't going twelve and four this year or
• 2:37
  Speaker 5: twelve and five? Are you the one that.
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: Has to say all that about the Jets?
• 2:41
  Speaker 5: Yes, well not just the Jets, but but you're the
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: one that has to bring everybody down, like no, no, no, no, no, no.
• 2:47
  Speaker 5: Come on, guys, do you.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Have final saying?
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: He's asking if you're the final layer before things go
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: to print, like you can reject something?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yes, okay, yeah.
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Well you know. The way it is is that
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: I like to let each writer do his own thing
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: as far as what he wants to say about the team.
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: If he doesn't agree with what the projection is, then
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: write a little bit about why you think the projection
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: might be a little bit wrong. We say every year
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: that some of the numbers are surprising to you, and
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: some of them are even surprising to us. So there
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: are subjective reasons to believe that some of the projections
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: are a little low or a little high. So, for example,
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: the Saints chapter is a little more optimistic about the
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: team than the numbers are. But the numbers stop with.
• 3:28
  Speaker 6: Me, Aaron, as the creator of DVOA, you could pitch
• 3:32
  Speaker 6: new stats. We don't really have the cachet to pitch
• 3:35
  Speaker 6: new stats, but I want to pitch you one and
• 3:37
  Speaker 6: see if you could take it. Mainstream game usage and
• 3:41
  Speaker 6: tight situations. See who leads the league in guts.
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: You have made a good acronym, my friend. You could
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: actually put something like that together splits in you know,
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: second half of close games?
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: Yes, Tea, it's Yoda teaching. Yes, yes, yes, Yoda teaching
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: Luke's goal. I love this, Please Didjo dijo.
• 4:02
  Speaker 6: We have something there though, right, Yeah.
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: It actually might be an interesting yeah. I mean the
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: acronym is great, but you might get interesting results, you know,
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: I mean your third tight end who shows up on
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: the field all the time. Maybe when you get the
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: chips are down, that guy doesn't show up on the field,
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: you know, and we use your best players with the
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: chips are down.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: How do you feel about this stat?
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Five star catches meaning catches a wide receiver makes that
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: they're really not supposed to make, but they're freaks like
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: Randy Moss and Megatron and guys like that.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: And so it's called five star catches. What do you think?
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: I think we track something like that. I don't remember
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: exactly what it's called. But there's something for like catches
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: that you shouldn't have made that we track. But there's
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: only a couple of them for everybody in a year.
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: Nobody ever has more than a few.
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: Okay, so based on your projections, who is going to
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: be the best team in the NFL this year?
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: The numbers still like Seattle as the best team. They
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: were the best team last year. Yes, the Rams are
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: right behind them, and if Aaron Donald comes out of retirement,
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: the Rams will pass them.
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: Wow.
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: And I think that for a lot of people they
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: do subjectively prefer the Rams, and I have to admit
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: that subjectively, I think I prefer the Rams slightly. But
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: those are the two best teams in the league. They're
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: they're far ahead of everybody else.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: And who's the worst the Jets?
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: We have Cleveland, it's the worst team in the league. Yes, wow,
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: yeah they.
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: Good for us this year.
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: They traded their best player.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: Their offense looks horrible. I mean, you know, all their
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: quarterbacks have been so bad that it's hard to image.
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: I mean again, football is so hard to predict that
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: you predict a range of possibilities. But the chances that
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: the Cleveland offense will not be really bad are very small.
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: And whereas the Jets, there's a tiny chance that Gino
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: Smith gets his groove back. But more importantly, they imported
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: a bunch of veterans on defense who are reasonable and
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: there's no way you go a whole year with zero interceptions. Again,
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: so the Jets might have a reasonable defense with an
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: offense that's likely to be better than Cleveland's.
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: Aaron You said that if Aaron Donald comes back, then
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: the Rams would leap frog the Seahawks. And I'm just curious,
• 6:24
  Speaker 5: how do the numbers look at someone like Aaron Donald
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: who's been out of the league for a few years,
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: but we all knew what he was before he left.
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: How do you project out what he would be with
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: two years off of football.
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah, you have to estimate. I use approximate value from
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: Pro Football Reference, and I probably would add in what
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: Donald did in his last year, minus a little bit
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: with the idea that you know he's been out of
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: the game for a year or two, But still that
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: would be a significant addition. I mean he was still
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: leading all defensive tackles in ESPN's pass rush win rate
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: when he retired.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: You said that you delivered that with a flurry. I mean,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: for you, a flurry, but that was a flurry he stuck.
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: That was at the top of his game, and it
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: was like, no, I'm hanging it up. I'm Aaron.
• 7:14
  Speaker 6: Your last article on ESPN the ranking NFL teams by
• 7:18
  Speaker 6: under twenty five talent, you had the Patriots number one,
• 7:21
  Speaker 6: and you did mention a lot of that is due
• 7:23
  Speaker 6: to the fact they have Drake May at the quarterback position.
• 7:26
  Speaker 6: What do you think are fair expectations for the Patriots
• 7:29
  Speaker 6: this year coming off a year where they very clearly
• 7:32
  Speaker 6: outperformed what expectations were for them.
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: I think the Patriots may be a better team with
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: a worse record.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: Right, So everyone knows about their schedule last year by DVOA,
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: it was the fourth easiest schedule of any team in
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: the last fifty years. So they go from that to
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: an average schedule. So their offense maybe takes a little
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: bit of a step back, but not as much as
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: you would think because they have aj Brown now right,
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: and their defense should be a bit better. But since
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: they're not going to play that exciting you know, Murderer's
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: row of quarterbacks that they faced last year, other than
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: when they played Miami and the Jets, they're they're they're
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: not going to look like they're as good as they
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: look like like they're not going to go fourteen and three,
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: but underlying they might actually be a better team.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: Aaron, how do you factor in, like with Kansas City,
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: how do you factor in when you're doing your projections
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: for the season, how do you factor in the injuries
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: to Patrick Mahomes.
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: We started with like a twenty percent chance that he
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: played Week one, and like a forty percent that he
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: played Week two, and sixty percent that he played Week three,
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: and eighty percent that he played Week four. Okay, and
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: we gradually ramped it up, and then when I rerun
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: things right before the season, we'll have a better idea
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: of whether he's actually gonna be ready for Week one.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: So who is the favorite out of the AFC?
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: The Houston Texans AFC fav wow wow Now Chris Sims
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: told us he spent the entire season last year saying
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: that was a championship defense that the Texans have, but
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: his obvious concern was CJ.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Stroud of the quarterback spot.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: So you're with Chris sim that team is talented enough
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: to make it out of the AFC.
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: CJ. Stroud was a shocking eleven in passing Dvoa during
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: the regular season before he totally faced planted in the playoffs. Right,
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: But you learn more from the regular season than you
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: do from two playoff games. He was a good quarterback.
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: If you give him a better running game and a
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: slightly better offensive line, they can put an above average
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: offense on the field. Not a great offense, but an
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: above average one. And if you combine it with that defense,
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: that is the best team in the AFCI.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Wow, are they the best defense in the NFL?
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: Them or Seattle Man?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: That is crazy? You guys ready to put a flyer
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: on the Texans here? What are you thinking?
• 9:52
  Speaker 6: So Aaron, Yeah, I'm putting a flyer. I'm trying to
• 9:56
  Speaker 6: stay ahead of people in terms of who people think
• 10:00
  Speaker 6: is going to be good and Stu Gotts couldn't be
• 10:03
  Speaker 6: further off this team because of their quarterback. He hates
• 10:06
  Speaker 6: Justin Herbert. Yes, I love Justin Herbert. I love the
• 10:09
  Speaker 6: hiring of Mike McDaniel to be the OC. I'm putting
• 10:12
  Speaker 6: a little flyer on the Chargers to win the AFC.
• 10:16
  Speaker 6: What do the numbers say?
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: Wow, we have them lower than conventional wisdom. But I
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: will say that for some reason, our numbers just haven't
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: liked the Chargers the last couple of years, and we
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: were wrong last year. So I don't know.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe we're wrong your numbers. Yeah.
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: The thing about McDaniel is we don't know for sure
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: that he's an offensive genius who raises every offense that
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: he runs, because we've only seen him run one offense. Right.
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: Most of these coordinators, you see them run one team,
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: two teams. Maybe you don't know for sure that every
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: time they go to a new team it's going to
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: be awesome. There's very rare to have a guy like
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: Vic Fangio who's run like eight different defenses and they've
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: all gotten better. So you don't know for sure that
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: Mike McDaniel is going to be the revolutionary for Herbert
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: that people think he is.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Aaron.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: I think Caleb Williams eventually is going to be the
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: best quarterback in the NFL. Do the Bears have a
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: chance this season? I know the defense is kind of lousy.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: The offense is fantastic. He's fantastic. Do they have a
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: chance of winning that division according to you guys?
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: Oh absolutely. I mean, first of all, they have the
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: weirdest projection in the book. We have them number two
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: on offense and number thirty two on defense.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: Yeah, we like the offense to take a step forward
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: and second year with Ben Johnson. Don't think they lost
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: too much with DJ Moore. The defense was really good
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: on third downs, really dependent on takeaways, lost more talent
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: than it gained. It's a really weird projection because it's
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: so one sided. So if their defense is just a
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: little bit better than we think it's going to be, yeah,
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: they can win that division.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: How do how do teams like I don't know, Atlanta, Minnesota,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: how do you factor in the fact that they don't
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: know who the starting quarterback is going to be yet
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: and Atlanta could be Tua or Pennix in Minnesota could
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: be JJ or Kyle Murray. How do you guys kind
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: of factor that into your projections.
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: It's not JJ, okay Kyler Murray.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: That's a great way to.
• 12:22
  Speaker 5: That doesn't matter.
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: It's Kyler Murray.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: All right? So you're doing your projection based off of
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Kyler Murray, Right, Okay.
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: We made it to in the projection, we did make
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: it to. Uh. I don't know how much difference there
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: really is between the two of them and what we
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: would project So even if we were to do something
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: where like in the second half of the year we
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: projected two a half the time in Pennix half the time,
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: I don't know if it would make that much of
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: a difference. It would for Minnesota because McCarthy was horrible
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: last year, right, but he's not the quarterback. It's Kyler Murray.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: Was there a team as you're doing the projections where
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: you were a bit surprised out a little bit higher
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: than you thought they were going to they were going
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: to come out.
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: I didn't realize Houston would come out so good.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Really, that's the team.
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and Indianapolis, I think we have a lot higher
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: than other people do. People forget how good they were
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: last year before Jones got hurt. They were for the
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: whole year, for the whole year, fifth in DVOA, even
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: including the games that Philip Rivers and Riley Leonard had
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: to play. So will they be that good? I mean,
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: we have them fourteenth, but that's still better than conventional
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: wisdom has them. It is somewhat dependent on Jones being
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: back for the start of the season.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: Ftnfantasy dot com slash Almanac is where you purchase Aaron
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Schatz's almanac here.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: And how about the other way there?
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: How about a team that you thought, maybe a lot
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: of people think are going to be good, but your
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: projections came back and Zaida not going to be as
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: good as we thought.
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: I mean the Chargers really yeah, and the Cowboys. Those
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: are the two teams I think that we have lower
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: than conventional I will note that it's sort of like
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: Lake will be gone this year in the NFL. There's
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: like twenty above average teams because the bad teams look
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: so bad that they dragged the average kind of down
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: to where there's more good teams than there are bad teams.
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: But the good teams aren't as good as the bad
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: teams are bad. So there's teams that we have, you know,
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: projected to have like eight and a half average wins,
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: like the Cowboys and Chargers, that are good teams. It's
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: just not everybody's gonna have a winning.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Record, right cam Ward, do you guys think.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: Now, I know he got off to like a tough
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: start last year as a rookie, but do you guys think,
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: do the numbers say he's going to be a good quarterback,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: a productive quarterback in the NFL.
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: I mean, our college projections liked him, right, he didn't
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: play well last year, so it's not like we have
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: him jumping up. There's really two different kinds of bad teams.
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: They're the bad teams where you pretty much know they're
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: going to be bad, right, And there's the bad teams
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: where you can tell the story of how you're wrong.
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: Like you know, with the Giants, you're like young quarterback
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: on the rise plus new head coach plus neighbors comes
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: back from injury. If we're wrong, I understand why. And
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: Tennessee is a team like that, also new head coach
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: plus young quarterback on the rise. If we're wrong, I
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: will understand why we were wrong. But probably they're not
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: going to be good.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: We have a game for you here. Are you ready
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: to play it? Mikey's going to introduce the game to you,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: and hopefully you're okay with it. I pray that you're
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: okay with it.
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: Go ahead, well, listen, we went for the easy joke here.
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: So if you agree with the if you disagree with
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: the statement I give you, you're gonna tell me no shats.
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: But if you're agree with it, if you're bullish on it,
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: you're gonna tell me it's bullshats, bullshots.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: I love it? Yes, all right, you're good with this? Okay? Okay?
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Do you need to explain again or do you think yeah,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: you got it? Yeah?
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: No, I got it, I got it?
• 16:12
  Speaker 5: Okay, all right, first statement, the seventy two dolphins should
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: be worried about the twenty twenty six La Rams. Are
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: you bullshots or no shots on that?
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Wow?
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: Bullshits?
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, he loves the rams.
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: Yes, oh oh bullshot, which which one means that it's
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: not gonna happen.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: So that's why I know, that's why. Y Yeah, yeah,
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: no shots okay, so no chance, no shots?
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: Yeah, seahawks are too good man, they're gonna split.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: Okay, So I thought you were bullishot it bullshots? Just
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: so we're clear, I can't believe I'm explaining this bullish, Yes, bullish?
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Agree with it? Yes, you are bullish?
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: What else could it mean?
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: It should mean what he thinks it means.
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: Anyway, that's what I agree, all right. Next one, Fernando
• 17:00
  Speaker 5: Mendoza will win the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: No shots, because they seem to want to start cousins
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: at the start of the year. I wouldn't, but that
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: seems to be what they want to do, so it's bullshots.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: Yes, I know they should start Mendoza. I'm with you
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: on that. Go ahead, Mikey.
• 17:18
  Speaker 5: Next one, Okay, the New York Jets will end the
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: playoff drought this year.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: Shot.
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: I agree with you.
• 17:30
  Speaker 6: I've got one.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: I could ask him next year. I want to ask
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: him next year. Go ahead.
• 17:36
  Speaker 6: Taylor, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson will be in the
• 17:41
  Speaker 6: Super Bowl this year.
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: Well, since Houston is my favorite, I guess I have
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: to say no shots. But I mean they both got
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: good shots.
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: Yes, is there a middle ground for shots here? We're
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: putting them in a terrible position. I mean, we really are.
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, because one of those guys obviously could end
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: up in the Super all.
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: But he's for that's the fun of a lightning round.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: Yes, okay, I'm going in the way. I'm sorry. I
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: was protecting you.
• 18:05
  Speaker 6: I'm still confused which one is which I have no
• 18:07
  Speaker 6: idea bullshots or no shots?
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I tried.
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: How you could be whatever? What else could it mean? Bullish?
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: But you realize why bullshats should be?
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: No?
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: Right, No, I don't realize. Why don't you explain it
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: to me?
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: All right? Go ahead ask him some more. He's getting
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: tired of it.
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: Okay, let's go a different route. The seventy six ers
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: will make it to the NBA Final.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Oh, wow, good one.
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: I'm not an NB I a guy, but I guess
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: I'll go bullshats on that.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: Yes, wow, bullish on the Sixers? Yes, I oh bullish?
• 18:40
  Speaker 6: What about ordering a Shirley Temple at an open bar wedding?
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: All right, Taylor did that? Just so we're clear. He's
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: a thirty one year old man. It's not he drinks,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: but he went to an open bar wedding and got
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: a Shirley Temple.
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: Yeah, no shots, I would, honestly, thank you. I don't
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: drink very much. I would just drink water.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: Oh, I got a little crazy thought that alcohol puts
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: me to sleep. That's the problem with it.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: Yes, but like that's fair, and I'm with you. I
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: understand that.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: But when you're at an open bar you're a man.
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: You're walking up. You're gonna at least order or drink
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: and pretend you're drinking it.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: Right? Is that fair?
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: A beer? I can drink slowly? Maybe?
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 19:16
  Speaker 6: Look at look at bacho man. Stu Goats over here.
• 19:21
  Speaker 6: You gotta go up in order or drink.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you have to. I mean it's an open bar.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: It's free. Not many free things in life, not this
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: almanac either, go ahead?
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: Okay? Indiana is a football school?
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: Wow? Football or basketball school?
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: Bullshots?
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: Matt this point right there, they're a football.
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: Su It's kind of crazy, but totally.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Yes, go ahead, like.
• 19:48
  Speaker 5: All right, Florida is a basketball school.
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: Oh boy, If you think I don't follow the NBA,
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: I really.
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: We'll just say bull shots?
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: Yes? Do you have any more for it? All right?
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: Last one? Stu Gots kind of alluded to this earlier. Uh,
• 20:08
  Speaker 5: Caleb Williams will be the best quarterback in the NFL
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: one day.
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: I'm I'm gonna say, no shots. I don't think he's
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: gonna be that good, but I think he can be
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: like fourth or fifth.
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: All right, no shots or bullshats. Tyler Shuck is going
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: to be better than people expect.
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: Whatever is the middle ground. I'll take I don't know.
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: I'm not that high on him. I'm not that high
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: on him, but I don't know, right.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: All right, no shots or bullshatz Tua will have a
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: kind of career resurgence in Atlanta.
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: Bullshats if you're playing fantasy, no shots. If you're playing
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: real foot.
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: So well put up the dow. It won't result in wins. Okay,
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: all right, Aaron, we appreciate it. Check out his almanac.
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: It's fantastic stuff and we'll get you ready for the
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: football season. Ftnfantasy dot Com slash Almanac is where you
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: can purchase it, Aaron, anything you want to say about
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: it before we let you go here.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: We appreciate the time, as ooways sir. Yeah, man.
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: Folks will love it. And there is a sample chapter,
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: so if you go to Ftnfantasy dot Com slash Almanac
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: you can read the sample chapter and get an idea
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: of what you're purchasing. There's also a physical book on
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: Amazon if you search for FTN Football Almanac twenty twenty six.
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: It's got Jackson Smith and Jigba on the cover.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: All right, you are wonderful, my friend. Your work is
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: fantastic and we appreciate the time. As zoways, thank you
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: for doing this.
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: Thank you, my good man, always good to be on.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: All right, we'll talk so