Latest / SILVER / GOLD / $UFD Meme Coin Investing & Global Economics / 🚨 SILVER Investors DON'T WORRY! 🚨 You'll UNDERSTAND This - (Silver and Gold Price NEWS)
Transcript
- 0:00We are experiencing absolute massive moves in the price of
- 0:05silver and gold. Let's make some sense of it
- 0:09today. Let's talk about some huge
- 0:11stories as well, right? Something from Congress, the
- 0:14United States Congress about silver that sent shock waves
- 0:18through the industry. But overall, guys, we are moving
- 0:22through a period of time like no other in the world, but also in
- 0:26the silver and gold market because silver and gold are a
- 0:30critical part of this world. Don't forget, silver and gold
- 0:34are the original and the one and only reserve currencies of the
- 0:38world. So while all this stuff is going
- 0:40on, wars, political upheaval, economic, fiscal, monetary chaos
- 0:46everywhere, silver and gold have seen it all before.
- 0:50But let's get some perspective. Let's do it together.
- 0:53But I want you to do it more in the future with us as well down
- 0:56here in the basement. Thank you for joining upstairs.
- 1:00Susie and I, well, I guess I'm the only one in the basement,
- 1:03but anyway, subscribe to the channel that's free to do.
- 1:06We want you to come back, hang out in the basement with us.
- 1:10Please give this a thumbs up. Please leave a comment and super
- 1:14chats are never, ever expected, always appreciated.
- 1:17Let's go out here and just look at how epic, how big these moves
- 1:21are that we are experiencing in the silver market.
- 1:25It really is historic what's going on right now in Javi.
- 1:28Costa shares this with us. The sell off in silver over the
- 1:38past 15 days has been one of the most extreme moves we've ever
- 1:43seen in history. Only two other episodes are even
- 1:49comparable. One marked A major peak, the
- 1:52other a major bottom. Let's look at this chart and
- 1:55then we'll go back to some really insightful commentary
- 1:59that he made. But what he's showing us here on
- 2:01this chart in no uncertain terms indicates this, right?
- 2:081980, this shows the silver price 15 day change percentage
- 2:15over the last 15 days, right? We have had this over here,
- 2:20right? This mark here, the yellow we
- 2:22can see back in 1980, we had a similar price move over a 15 day
- 2:27period and we also had the same thing occur during the COVID
- 2:36period right here. We know what happened then,
- 2:38right? I remember the C-19 period when
- 2:41the silver price dropped to what like $1214.00 per oz over the
- 2:44weekend and then quickly shot back.
- 2:46So here we are now. OK, this is all the way back
- 2:50over 45 years, and guys, let's look at what Tobby is sharing
- 2:55with us about why he thinks this isn't over, he said.
- 2:59Personally, I've never seen, excuse me, a true peak in
- 3:03precious metals under conditions like this, meaning we likely
- 3:08haven't peaked because he says there's a supply which is
- 3:12historically constrained, the CapEx cycle still near record
- 3:16lows. That means nobody has been
- 3:19investing, only the visionaries and there's very few of them
- 3:23have been investing in future silver mine growth, right?
- 3:26Remember, 7080% of silver is mined by accident as a byproduct
- 3:33of copper, zinc, lead mining. OK, large new discovery.
- 3:36The new discoveries are virtually non existent.
- 3:41This is we're talking about future availability, stagnant
- 3:45production. Actually production of silver's
- 3:47been going down slightly since I think what 2016 And Phillips
- 3:53Phillips Baker, the ex CEO of Hekla Mining, America's oldest
- 3:58and largest silver mining company, recently on on Kitco
- 4:02said that silver production won't start to tick up until the
- 4:06earliest the year 2030. No meaningful new projects
- 4:10coming online. More importantly, the entire
- 4:12industry still only represents 1% of global equity markets.
- 4:18On top of that, we are living through geopolitically and
- 4:21fiscally a period of time like no other in history.
- 4:25Thank you, Tobby Costa. Tobby Costa is one of the
- 4:27sharpest minds out there. So yes, right, we've had
- 4:30experienced extreme volatility in the silver market over the
- 4:35last two weeks. OK, we know the pain, but a lot
- 4:39of us have been here before, right?
- 4:42One time that this period compares to that marked the top.
- 4:46That was 1980. The most recent time, which was
- 4:50during COVID, it marked a bottom.
- 4:52I think it marks the bottom at this point.
- 4:55I think that we are way different than 1980 at this
- 4:59point. I mean, in 1980, things were
- 5:02different in the world in general fiscally and, and, and,
- 5:07and, and from an industrial perspective as well.
- 5:10So buckle up, butter cups. We got a lot going on.
- 5:13Two members of Congress, right, New legislation about silver.
- 5:18This was a big breaking news story yesterday.
- 5:21Let's head out here to Matt Bloomberg, who was this Morning
- 5:25star. Yeah, Morning Star Lawmakers
- 5:27introduce Silver Act to de risk US metals US precious metals
- 5:36market infrastructure Washington, DC 2 members of
- 5:40Congress have introduced the This is an acronym the system
- 5:45integrity through licensed vault expansion and resilience Act
- 5:50that makes the silver act a measure why they were created
- 5:54with that a measure aimed at modernizing the nation's
- 5:57precious metal storage framework and reducing systemic risk
- 6:01within the US financial markets. The legislation filed yesterday
- 6:05by Rep Russ Volker from Idaho and Rep Mark Harris from North
- 6:10Carolina, both Republicans, seeks to address the long
- 6:14standing geographic limitations on approved depositories for
- 6:20precious metals tied to regulated futures markets.
- 6:24What they basically said, I won't bore you with the rest of
- 6:27that article, is that all the silver in the United States is
- 6:31all within like 100 mile radius in New York City.
- 6:35We want it spread out more across the country.
- 6:39OK, Which makes sense, right? Why keep it all in one place?
- 6:42It creates geographic risk, other risk as well.
- 6:45But the other big thing to realize, guys, take a step back.
- 6:49Those are two there are new laws, silver and gold.
- 6:53Both are in a new paradigm in the world when it comes to
- 6:58recognition. OK, not just by people like us
- 7:01that that love it by, but by legislators, not just in, in, in
- 7:06in the United States, but all over the world as well.
- 7:10Things are getting interesting. Why did gold and silver, why is
- 7:13this going on? We got some big, we're going to
- 7:15talk about perspective, but reasons why we're going through
- 7:19this down period right now in the precious metals.
- 7:22Let's go to one of the most I think understandable reasons
- 7:26that is becoming generally agreed upon by many people in
- 7:31the precious metal sector. And we'll go to Spencer hockey
- 7:36Mia and he says breaking gold collapses as Arab Gulf states
- 7:41sell their assets to raise money.
- 7:44So there's this growing narrative right now that the
- 7:47reason why, oh, you can see me over there.
- 7:50I think I'm on I forgot to share the screen the right way.
- 7:53The reason why we are having this gold and silver collapse is
- 7:59because these Arab nations are in big trouble financially right
- 8:03now. And I mean that kind of makes
- 8:05sense, right? Like their oil production is
- 8:07going down. They can't export oil so they're
- 8:10actually having to sell gold. I don't know the mechanics
- 8:14behind it all, but some very smart people are talking about
- 8:17that, including just Dario who we're going to hear from next
- 8:21after we say thank you to channel sponsor first mining
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- 8:39firstmininggold.com. Please don't forget I'm not a
- 8:42financial advisor. Stocks, bonds, mutual funds, it
- 8:45all is risky. Always do your own research and
- 8:48if need to need be talked to a a qualified financial planner.
- 8:53But just Dario, who's becoming one of the most just respected
- 8:58names out there in the precious metal sector, had this to say
- 9:03about recent developments. He said my gut feeling about a
- 9:07liquidity crisis spreading in the Middle East banking system
- 9:11being the cause of heavy gold and silver selling is getting
- 9:15stronger and stronger. And he points to this article
- 9:18from Reuters saying that the United Arab Emirates central
- 9:22bank support package list list lenders shaken by the Iran war.
- 9:28So as this war unfolds and sends really shockwaves through the
- 9:34world economy, you can only imagine what it's doing in the
- 9:37Middle East. And a lot of people are saying
- 9:39the reason why we're going to get into a lot more of this in a
- 9:44in a few seconds, but the reason why the gold and silver price
- 9:46are struggling right now is because of some of these Arab
- 9:51countries needing to sell their metals for money for liquidity
- 9:55purposes. OK, let's go on here.
- 9:57Let's talk about perspective on these markets, right?
- 10:02I know red days are no fun. I'm with you on that.
- 10:05But we got to keep the big picture in mind and we're going
- 10:08to look at it from a chart perspective and also from an
- 10:11event perspective perspective. And it's all going to make
- 10:13perfect sense that we're OK, don't worry, be happy.
- 10:18All right, the gold and silver are long term investments and
- 10:21nothing, nothing has a track record like the metals.
- 10:25But let's start here and let's talk about the charts.
- 10:30This was shared by Gold Ventures.
- 10:32OK, hold on here. Did I go to the right one?
- 10:36Hold on. Here we go.
- 10:37OK. Yeah.
- 10:38They share bloodbath and gold miners and gold and silver.
- 10:42Everyone's panicking. The GDX.
- 10:45OK. The gold mining index is down
- 10:4832% from its recent highs. I think it was like March 1st or
- 10:53or February 27th when it was at its high.
- 10:57It's only been two or three weeks, but let's put this in
- 11:00context. Bull markets only.
- 11:02OK, here's what history has to say.
- 11:05He points out the 1970s bull market.
- 11:08OK, gold corrected 47% in 1974, and that period from 1971
- 11:16through 1980 was one of the most epic ever for gold and silver.
- 11:21The miners dropped almost 60% during that period.
- 11:25The financial press declared the gold bull was dead.
- 11:29Gold then went on to go all the way up to $850 and miners
- 11:34returned 12 * 1200% over the full cycle every single time.
- 11:40But wait, there's more. OK, because there was the 2001
- 11:44to 2011 bull market in 2004 the Huey Index which measures the
- 11:50gold miners down 35%. 2006 the Huey dropped 31% right with the
- 11:57gold price 2008 the GDX and the Huey went down 70% during that
- 12:04period. Yet gold went from 250 all the
- 12:08way to 1900 dollars. The 2008 crash was the ultimate
- 12:13within a bowl shakeout. OK, one more piece to look at
- 12:172016 to present bowl market. OK, the 2016 post peek the GDX,
- 12:25the gold miners index dropped 45%, 2018 the index dropped 30
- 12:30percent, 2020 COVID GDX dropped 42% and during the 2022 rate
- 12:37hike cycle, the GDX dropped 45%. Today's drawdown around 30 92%
- 12:44it's not an anomaly here's the big key right here guys it is
- 12:48the price of admission look part of any great bull market are
- 12:54going to be great bull pull backs corrections
- 12:58consolidations, whatever you want to call them bear markets
- 13:01it's part of the process Nothing will go straight up in a
- 13:05straight up line. I don't have a crystal ball,
- 13:08right, please, right. Don't don't think that I can
- 13:11predict the future. But when we look, we get all the
- 13:13factors going on and we look at that past chart performance for
- 13:18the miners, for gold and silver during other big massive bull
- 13:22runs. We can see very clearly that
- 13:25while what's going on right now is absolutely no fun whatsoever.
- 13:31I understand. I do.
- 13:33I feel the pain with you, right? I've invested in gold mining
- 13:36stocks for decades. My Portfolio is red right silver
- 13:40down, not down today again. But it really truly from a
- 13:44historic basis is part of the process.
- 13:48That doesn't mean it has to be any fun, but hey, we're having
- 13:51fun. I'm glad you're down here in the
- 13:52basement with me. Now let's look at this from a
- 13:54news perspective and event perspective like we're going
- 13:58through right now because it's not making any sense to people,
- 14:02but it will make sense after we talk about these next points
- 14:06that we just started a war three weeks ago and since the war
- 14:10started, gold and silver are going down.
- 14:13I get it, it doesn't make sense, but it does when you look at it
- 14:17through the lens of history. Let's go out.
- 14:21Here is a great article and then I'm going to give you the
- 14:24synopsis from Metals and Miners. Here we go.
- 14:29Sorry. Now your screen should be on.
- 14:31Yep, you got it. OK, Metals and Miners says is
- 14:35the gold bull market and silver market dying in 2026.
- 14:40Lessons from 1979 and 2022 are very instructive for today's
- 14:46weakness. Now, again, we just looked at it
- 14:48from a chart perspective, but we're going to look at this now
- 14:51from a event perspective, OK? They say right there, gold has
- 14:55not responded to the geopolitical chaos, nor has it
- 15:00responded to the Federal Reserve.
- 15:02That is signaled A dovish pivot is still on the table.
- 15:05The anxiety is understandable. Is the gold Bowl market over?
- 15:11Has gold's role as a crisis edge been broken?
- 15:15Is the Golden Bowl dying in 2026 all right in yellow?
- 15:20The short answer is no. What we are witnessing is
- 15:25actually not unusual, nor is it a sign of a broken market.
- 15:30In fact, it's a classic, well documented pattern that is
- 15:34repeated throughout history. More often than not, gold's
- 15:38initial reaction to the outbreak of war is to decline.
- 15:42The reasons are counterintuitive but critical to understand the
- 15:47price action we've seen is is not a bearish omen.
- 15:50It's a textbook setup for a Major League higher.
- 15:55OK. And what they then point out,
- 15:59hold on, I'm coming back. We're having a little tech
- 16:01issue. Hopefully you can see me and
- 16:03hear me. Yes, you can.
- 16:07What they point out is that when wars break out, number one, it's
- 16:11often a sell the news type event.
- 16:14OK, which means gold and silver are the smartest assets out
- 16:17there. They see things coming before
- 16:20they happen. So the initial knee jerk
- 16:23reaction, the first 2-3, four weeks can be a sell the new sell
- 16:27the news type reaction. The other thing right is that
- 16:30people often times out of fear will rush to the US dollar,
- 16:34which will give the US dollar some strength, which also puts
- 16:38some downward pressure on the price of gold and silver.
- 16:42But the same thing happened right now.
- 16:45One example was when Russia recently invaded Ukraine was at
- 16:502022, the price of the price of gold and silver initially
- 16:56reacted negatively to that. Now, I think this period right
- 17:00now to me feels really similar. Also, something else that
- 17:05happened recently to November of 2024 when Donald Trump was
- 17:09elected president, OK, everybody thought the gold and silver
- 17:12would skyrocket if Trump won the election.
- 17:15There was going to be chaos in the streets.
- 17:18There was going to be, you know, Trump president.
- 17:20And again, Trump's good for gold.
- 17:22Trump loves gold, descent loves gold, all that great stuff.
- 17:25But you know what happened here? I haven't written down from
- 17:27yesterday. After Trump got elected
- 17:30president through the end of the year of 2024, gold dropped from
- 17:35like 2800 down to what, 2550? It went down.
- 17:39And I remember the frustration, right, thinking what is going on
- 17:43in it. But then we know what happened
- 17:45later in 2025, silver after Trump got elected, went from 35
- 17:51down to 29. I remember literally like
- 17:54wanting to pull my hair out during like what is going on?
- 17:57OK, But but often times that's just a knee jerk reaction.
- 18:02The other thing that occurs, right, is this idea of high
- 18:06inflation. That's let me let's talk about
- 18:10that for one second. Everybody now is talking about
- 18:12inflation going up, up, up because of oil.
- 18:15We're going to talk about craziness and oil here in a
- 18:17second and what that means for the precious metals.
- 18:19But everybody's saying, oh, inflation's going to go up.
- 18:22Even the feds talking about inflation is going to go higher
- 18:25and higher and higher initially. That's also bearish for the
- 18:30price of gold and silver, as we're seeing right now.
- 18:34But in the long run, OK, In the long run, that will be a big
- 18:39supportive factor for the precious metals.
- 18:42OK, because if they if they even think about raising interest
- 18:48rates, the economy and everything else will come
- 18:51crashing down. We're in good shape.
- 18:53What's happening right now from a chart perspective like we
- 18:56looked at from the 70s from O 2001 to 2011 normal, not fun,
- 19:02but normal from an event perspective reaction to big
- 19:07events like the Ukraine war breaking out like the like the
- 19:11like when Trump normal That's what I see and it makes total
- 19:16total sense again doesn't mean it has to be fun to see red, but
- 19:20we aren't necessarily investing. I mean you have to ask yourself
- 19:24I have to ask myself am I investing in gold and silver
- 19:27because I plan on selling it later today mining stock No, you
- 19:32know right most of us look at it as generational type investment.
- 19:37So don't worry be happy. I do want to say Speaking of
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- 21:35OK, wow, where are we now? Well, here's Zero Hedge, who's
- 21:41the cause of the hold on a minute here.
- 21:45Hold on, who's the 'cause? There it is.
- 21:48Let's pull this one up. Who's the cause of the of the
- 21:51smashdown and silver, Well, Zero Hedge is kind of pointing a
- 21:55finger and our friends at Jane Street, they say silver under
- 21:58$70. We warned you a month ago that
- 22:01Jane St. becoming the biggest, excuse me, marginal price setter
- 22:06guarantees a rug pole. Wow.
- 22:10And there's their post from February 25th.
- 22:12We've been huge silver bowl since 2009.
- 22:15But be very careful here. Lots of financial engineering
- 22:18going on. Jane St. not only added a record
- 22:2120.66 million shares of SLV in Q4, it's now also the largest
- 22:27holder of SLV. And all of this suspicion
- 22:31swirling around suspicion, speculation around Jane St.
- 22:35possibly having something to do with manipulating the price of
- 22:40silver is based upon further speculation, lawsuits and
- 22:44accusations against the company for things that go on within the
- 22:49crypto sector, the Indian stock market.
- 22:52And there was one other one. Oh, they were they were they
- 22:55built. They were sued by the Terraform
- 22:58labs of the bankruptcy attorneys over potential insider training
- 23:04trading with that as well. Again, I can't confirm or deny.
- 23:08I'm just telling you the news on Jane St. and why so many people
- 23:13are watching very closely what goes on with Jane St. and the
- 23:18SLVETF and the silver price as well.
- 23:22Let's just say there's a lot of people watching very, very, very
- 23:26closely. How about China?
- 23:28Wow, here's some shocking data for you.
- 23:33We know Chinese people. We know Indian people love
- 23:38silver and gold. We know they're importing
- 23:40massive amounts of silver and gold.
- 23:43But I was blown away, and I confirmed this data when I
- 23:47learned how much gold Chinese. Not the Chinese government.
- 23:52We know their central government, right?
- 23:54Buying gold, buying gold, producing gold, producing gold.
- 23:58But what about the Chinese people?
- 24:00And there are 1.4 billion of them.
- 24:03How much gold do they own? This is shocking.
- 24:06And actually this number may be a little bit low.
- 24:11This came from gold ventures. Chinese households are sitting
- 24:16on 24,000 tons of gold. That's more than the entire,
- 24:25excuse me, United States Fort Knox Reserve multiplied by
- 24:30three. Yes, Chinese households have a
- 24:34loan. Just their households, not the
- 24:35government doesn't count with the government.
- 24:37Central bank has. The households have three times
- 24:41more than three times the amount of gold in the United States
- 24:45government has at Fort Knox. And when I dug into this and did
- 24:49some research, a lot of estimates are more like 25,000
- 24:53or 2728 thousand metric tons. OK, now this is where it gets
- 25:00even a little more interesting. Let's go to the next one.
- 25:04Here we go. Our friend the Oriental Ghost
- 25:07says gold plummeted and and China is buying big.
- 25:12OK, Chinese market gold. Gold price went down like we've
- 25:15experienced, but the daily limit is only 600 kilograms of gold
- 25:21bars for banks in China to sell and 100 kilograms on the
- 25:26weekends. Sales start at 9:00 AM per day
- 25:30and are being sold out within one minute in the source of that
- 25:35information, none other than the Chinese Central TV, the Chinese
- 25:41government. Hold on, there we go.
- 25:43Television and CCTV, just so we know that it's a reliable,
- 25:48trustworthy news outlet, says yes.
- 25:51That this is from from Google. AICCTV stands for China Central
- 25:57Television, the national public broadcaster of the People's
- 26:01Republic of China. Where's my gong?
- 26:04Let's ring that Gong. Hold on.
- 26:11OK. It's controlled by the China
- 26:13Media Group, which falls under direct supervision of the
- 26:17Central Propaganda Department of the Chinese Communist Party.
- 26:22So anyway, I don't know, is that some gold propaganda that we're
- 26:27getting? But that's actual news coming
- 26:30from the Chinese central government.
- 26:33OK, Two big things with China, the people owned unbelievable
- 26:38amounts of gold. The Indian people on top of
- 26:41that, I think they also own like 25,000 metric tons.
- 26:45Don't quote me on that, but I'm 93 percent, 96% sure that's the
- 26:50case. Both these countries own
- 26:52multiples more gold than our government owns in the United
- 26:56States. And you know, the private
- 26:57ownership of gold and silver in the US is, let's just say, not a
- 27:01real popular subject, right? We're part of the one or two
- 27:04percent, those other people that sheeple, they don't get it.
- 27:11But on top of that, the Chinese government and, and there's that
- 27:15like accumulated savings plan we talked about the other day, the
- 27:18Chinese government is now having the kind of limit how much gold
- 27:22they're making available to the public.
- 27:25The world is changing like never, ever before.
- 27:29China and India and with everything going on in the
- 27:33Middle East right now and, and, and everything happening in
- 27:37these precious metals markets, we are living through what is
- 27:40absolutely a tectonic shift in the precious metals market, a
- 27:45paradigm shift, however you want to say it, It's happening and
- 27:48it's happening right in front of our very eyes.
- 27:51And $200 silver. What if, what if the smartest
- 27:57guy in the room is still predicting $200 silver?
- 28:00He had predicted 300 to $500 silver by summer.
- 28:04It's not out of the question, guys.
- 28:06I know right Now, look, the fundamental reasons driving the
- 28:11silver and gold rally that we had in 2025 have not changed.
- 28:15Think about that. Nothing's changed in that
- 28:18regard. Actually, with what's going on
- 28:22just in the last three weeks, there's even more reason for
- 28:25there to be strength in the precious metals again, I don't
- 28:29have a crystal ball. I have what I believe.
- 28:31I believe in my lifetime, I'm going to see $600.00 silver,
- 28:34easy peasy. That's what I what I believe,
- 28:37but we can't rule out a massive rally occurring really at almost
- 28:42any time. And Michael Oliver is one of the
- 28:45most respected chart analyst. Did they do all types of in
- 28:49depth research on the silver and gold price?
- 28:53And this guy was so the big reason why we listen to him.
- 28:57I've been listening to him for, I don't know, 10-15 years.
- 29:00He's not a permeable. I remember many times sitting
- 29:04down here during the Valley of Despair 4-5 years ago in the
- 29:09gold and silver market when things were just like, Oh my
- 29:12gosh, could it get any worse, right?
- 29:14We got to remember we're in good shape right now compared to 3/4
- 29:18five years ago. And Michael Oliver would give
- 29:20his analysis and he'd say, you know what, I think silver and
- 29:24gold are going to be weak like he would often times.
- 29:27He's all, he's honest. He's not a permeable, he's not a
- 29:29guy saying, you know, it's always going to go up.
- 29:32So let's listen to what he had to say just recently.
- 29:37And this is good news for us. Michael Oliver.
- 29:43This comes from silver trade predicts silver will still hit
- 29:48$200 plus by September and that's their company momentum
- 29:54structural analysis $200 plus by Q3 September, end of summer at
- 30:00the latest still on the table. Even if we're wrong and it takes
- 30:04the rest of the year, that's still a violent move, OK.
- 30:08And and that's was verified by Grok.
- 30:12So guys, look, you know, obviously what's going on in the
- 30:16last three weeks has been a challenging time for the
- 30:21precious metals, but the the sun is still out.
- 30:24We still are in a situation where this the silver and gold
- 30:28price could do very well in surprise people.
- 30:31We've had violent record-breaking moves in the
- 30:34price of the metals. And when that happens, right,
- 30:37those moves, guess what, they can go both ways, absolutely no
- 30:42doubt about it. And we're having absolute crazy
- 30:45prices and oil. Let's touch on this, and I'm
- 30:48going to tell you what a contact of mine in Bangkok, Thailand
- 30:53shared with me this morning. This comes from the global
- 30:56market investor. The oil market disruption is far
- 31:00worse than the headline prices suggest.
- 31:03Oman crude hit a record $173 per barrel on Wednesday, surpassing
- 31:10even the 2008 financial crisis. And this article just talks all
- 31:16about well, there's Oman, hold on, let's pull that up.
- 31:21See that up there instead of oh, oh man, they wrote oh man, oh,
- 31:26hold on, Why is that not working?
- 31:27There it is. Oh, man, up there in the left.
- 31:30And that shows the price of oil in Oman and this that's sad.
- 31:36That says dude by instead of Dubai.
- 31:39I'm just noticing this. That's pretty funny.
- 31:42And these charts go wow, all the way back.
- 31:45This is the great financial crisis, OK, Obviously this
- 31:52period here is the C-19 crisis when the price of oil absolutely
- 31:57plummeted. But we are seeing right here and
- 32:01right here oil prices like never before.
- 32:05So I talked this morning to A to a great friend, a great friend
- 32:10of mine who lives in Bangkok, Thailand.
- 32:13And he said that he said it's kind of crazy, like people
- 32:18lining up to get gas at gas stations.
- 32:20I said, is it gone? He said, and I don't want to
- 32:22over dramatize this, but he was like, it's definitely a very
- 32:28precarious situation when it comes to gas and I by default
- 32:33oil as well. He said mostly at this point he
- 32:36thinks it's people that are kind of panicking and hoarding.
- 32:39But there apparently are lines and we saw some some video
- 32:43earlier in the week in China as well, people lining up to get
- 32:47oil and gas. And it's much more critical.
- 32:49Those of us that live in the United States, we are spoiled.
- 32:52the United States has pretty much become energy independent.
- 32:56We are not as dependent on oil from the Middle East, but those
- 33:00Asian countries, I mean, Japan is in dire straits.
- 33:04Korea, China, all those Asian countries rely heavily on oil
- 33:09that goes through the Straits of Hormuz.
- 33:12And this is not a war channel or a political channel.
- 33:15But it doesn't as of the latest news that we're getting look
- 33:18like that situation is nearing a resolution anytime soon.
- 33:23So buckle up. This could have major impact.
- 33:25And Speaking of which, this is, is some scary data regarding oil
- 33:31prices and recessions. Let's go here.
- 33:35This comes from theory from RV. He says every time oil prices
- 33:40surge 50% or more above the trend, A recession followed
- 33:48every single time, and we just crossed that threshold.
- 33:53Again, this isn't a prediction, all right?
- 33:57It's history rhyming. And look at this chart.
- 34:00All right, this is super interesting because as you can
- 34:03see, all right, surge in energy prices suggest high probability
- 34:08of a recession. And as you can see, there's the
- 34:12trend line, right? And all those red circles it
- 34:16represent when that when the oil price had surged by 50% or more.
- 34:21And the Gray areas represent recessions.
- 34:26OK. And here we are.
- 34:27That's really the last official recession that they talked
- 34:31about. O 8 great financial crisis looks
- 34:35like that. This was the one right after the
- 34:37early 2000s. This is the one in the early
- 34:4090s. But every all right, there's one
- 34:43circle 23. I feel like I'm doing a coloring
- 34:47book 4, might as well finish now 5-6.
- 34:52OK, And here we are right here again going over that 50
- 34:58threshold. Are we going to see a Gray area
- 35:02over here? According to history, it's
- 35:06pretty much guaranteed at this point.
- 35:08And on top of that, guys, this financial system is in quite a
- 35:12precarious situation. When things, if things blow up
- 35:17in the financial system, if we have another financial crisis,
- 35:21we will have a, a, a reaction from the Federal Reserve, from
- 35:25the world central banks, exactly in line with what they've done
- 35:30in the past. And that is to print money.
- 35:33That's all they can do. That's their only option.
- 35:36That's their only bazooka that they have left.
- 35:39Think about what's happening right now with oil in what we
- 35:43just looked at on that chart. But also, but wait, there's more
- 35:48because we're getting major cracks in the private credit
- 35:52sector. I'm going to share just one and
- 35:54this comes from the Wall Street Journal.
- 35:57Just one interesting article. Silver Trade said Stone Ridge's
- 36:01Lindex fund is now told investors it will only honor 11%
- 36:08of redemption request. That means people that invested
- 36:12in these funds and once their money back, they're only going
- 36:14to honor 11%. It says, quote.
- 36:17Stone Ridge Asset Management told clients in the fund last
- 36:20week that recent redemption requests were so high that it
- 36:24would honor only 11% of the amount investors wanted back.
- 36:29That's from the Wall Street Journal headline private credits
- 36:32investor exodus spreads to consumer loans.
- 36:37OK, which is private credit is when they when they loan money
- 36:42to like software companies, bigger companies.
- 36:46Now they're saying that private credits investor investor exodus
- 36:51on this side is on the consumer loan as well, which apparently
- 36:55that's the sector that Stone Ridge operates in.
- 36:58Hey, don't forget, please subscribe to the channel, give
- 37:01the video thumbs up. Yep.
- 37:02And I'm going to go check that super chat.
- 37:04There's upstairs Susie chiming in.
- 37:06Huh. My lovely assistant upstairs,
- 37:09Susie, please say hello to all the basement dwellers.
- 37:11Hey, everybody, Happy Friday. I hope you all have a wonderful
- 37:18weekend and all right. Oh, my gosh.
- 37:20David Russo, what a generous super chat.
- 37:23Wow. Thanks to Ron and Susie for
- 37:26helping us keep our eye on the ball during this downturn.
- 37:29David, you deserve to be famous on the Internet today.
- 37:32Yeah. I mean, we got to keep a big
- 37:35picture perspective about what's going on, guys.
- 37:39Number one, we looked at the charts.
- 37:41What we're going through is not unusual through any other major
- 37:46bull market. Now that look, I don't have a
- 37:48crystal ball. I can't guarantee where things
- 37:51are going to be 3 and five years from now.
- 37:53But I spend my life studying this stuff.
- 37:56And I'm telling you, there's never been a setup for a
- 37:59continued lucrative market in the price of gold and silver.
- 38:03And when you compare it to these previous time periods, we're,
- 38:07we're we're experiencing exactly what they experienced during the
- 38:101970s bull market. We are experiencing exactly what
- 38:15they experienced during the O 1 to 2011 a bull market, OK, on
- 38:21top of that, right. But again, if we take a step
- 38:25back and think about what were the big factors that drove the
- 38:29record 2025 returns that we experienced in metals, those big
- 38:34factors have not been fixed. They still are in place and
- 38:39they're getting worse. And wait, there's more, right?
- 38:42Because now we've got this really unfortunate situation in
- 38:48the Middle East with major war going on.
- 38:50So if we do keep our eye on the ball and if we do consider the
- 38:56fact that are you planning on selling, were you planning on
- 38:58selling your silver later today? If you were I, I, I, I, I, I,
- 39:04I'm sorry, right? But most of us, right.
- 39:07And, and a lot of people, not all, but a lot of people like
- 39:10me, like I don't really, I've never sold any silver or gold in
- 39:15my life. I'm not the guy to ask about the
- 39:17best way to sell silver and gold because I have 0 experience
- 39:21selling the metal. You want to hear about how to
- 39:23buy it, I'm happy to share that with you.
- 39:26No problem. I can teach you all about that.
- 39:29OK, I buy it, I store it off site.
- 39:31I can tell you all about what I think are the best practices in
- 39:34that regard. So when we look at the big
- 39:37picture of what's going on out there in the where are you going
- 39:41to put your money? Are you going to put it?
- 39:43I mean in residential real estate that's a very expensive.
- 39:48Are you going to put your money into one of the, I heard
- 39:51something the other day, the top ten stocks in the S&P 500,
- 39:56that's all. But you know, the Googles,
- 39:58Microsofts, NVIDIA, whatever, that they have more cash than
- 40:04the bottom 400 companies in the S&P 500 combined.
- 40:08I mean, these companies are overvalued.
- 40:11They're based on, I mean, to me, real physical assets and looking
- 40:16at it on a long term perspective.
- 40:19And when I say long term, maybe we start a year from now, maybe
- 40:253 months from now. I'm telling you, I, and I said
- 40:28it yesterday, I wholeheartedly believe, right that within the
- 40:32next six months we will have $100 silver.
- 40:36Again, I could be wrong. I have no guarantees.
- 40:39I'm just telling you what I believe.
- 40:40Again, I always recommend to you listen to me read other stuff,
- 40:44listen to other Youtubers if you like, right?
- 40:47I don't know other people in their basement.
- 40:49I don't know, I don't really watch a lot of other Youtubers,
- 40:51but make up, you know, put all that information together and
- 40:54make up your own mind. But man, does it, does it just
- 40:58feel, it just feels like like like the place to be right now
- 41:05are silver and gold. Thank you again, Mr. David.
- 41:08Do I have that right? Yes.
- 41:10David Russo for the Super chat. Guys, please come back to the
- 41:14basement. We love having you here.
- 41:16On behalf of upstairs, Susie and myself, thank you, thank you,
- 41:19thank you. And Susie has one more thing to
- 41:22say, which is please subscribe to the channel.
- 41:24Have a great day. OK?
- 41:26Take care and I'll see you. See you.
- 41:28And yes, it's true, we are connected.
- 41:32I see you right now and we'll see you soon.
- 41:35Bye. Bye.