Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 71 - 7/8/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 71 - 7/8/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to episode 71 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:34
  Happy Monday, a new week begins. Hope everyone had a fantastic
• 0:38
  4th of July weekend. I'm living it up in San Diego.
• 0:42
  You may hear right now, I don't know if you can or not, but
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  there's some waves crashing beyond me.
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  I am literally sitting at the beach on a picnic table in San
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  Diego at the San Onofre Beach. Shout out to all of the service
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  members out there who protect and guard our nation because my
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  father-in-law, Jerry, who is a great guy, he was a Marine and
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  we got this basically free pass to I believe it's Camp
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  Pendleton, but it's San Onofre Beach.
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  We're we're camping here for a few days as we are kind of
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  winding down to the second-half of our trip here in San Diego.
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  But it's been a ton of fun. Went to the Padres game on
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  Saturday, ended up losing but we saw some fireworks after.
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  It was Star Wars night. I really enjoyed Petco Park.
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  Went there for the first time, there was a band playing in
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  center field, saw a big Trevor Hoffman statue.
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  It was a ton of fun. Had a big glizzy for my guy
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  Emerson Lotzia. But it was a great time at the
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  Padres game and then after or the day before went to the San
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  Diego County Fair at Delmar, which was, I can't even tell
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  you, last time I went to a fair, but went on the Ferris wheel
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  with my wife, hung with the fam. I had probably some terrible
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  food that was awful for me but tasted great.
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  I got, what was it a deep fried Oreo as well as what do we get?
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  I think I got brat or a sausage or something.
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  But either way guys, I am loving my San Diego trip.
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  Hope you guys had a great 4th of July.
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  We're going to see if we can continue our winning ways here
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  as we steam into a new week as we are now into the beginning of
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  July here. So we have for you today a three
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  pack of sweats in Major League Baseball.
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  I know it's kind of a small slate today on a sleepy Monday.
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  They're only seven games overall.
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  There's one early game. I tell you one thing, guys, I
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  always kind of get screwed up. I mentioned this I think on the
• 2:29
  last spot on Friday, but the time zone change.
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  I'm an East Coast guy. I'm used to, you know, game
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  starting at 7:00 or 10:00 out here, game start at four.
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  They started at, you know, 10:00 AM for the 1:00 games.
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  So I've got my jet lag over with and I'm starting to get the, the
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  groove of the West Coast life. And it's, it's kind of funny.
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  I know a lot of people are actually, you know, some in the
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  family who I won't mention are looking to move away from
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  California because just because the cost of living, it's really
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  expensive gases. I don't know, 6 bucks an hour, 6
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  bucks a gallon. But I tell you what, when you're
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  out here, the vibes, the weather is always great, the ocean, the
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  the Mexican food, you really can't beat it.
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  So it's been a great trip thus far.
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  So looking toward today, as you mentioned, a three pack of MLB
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  sweats, including couple money lines here, a dog to fave or
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  kind of a pick em to fave, as well as a total that we're
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  looking at for a game here in the American League Central.
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  So without without further ado, let's get into our MLB plays for
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  today. First one on the board.
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  I'm going to look at a match up between the Washington Nationals
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  at home, playing host to the Saint Louis Cardinals.
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  So going to this one four O 5 Eastern Time.
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  First pitch from the East Coast, from the West Coast, like me, is
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  a one O 5 game. So coming up here close, but the
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  Cardinals come in 47 and 42. They're taking the first two
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  games of this three-game series. This is the 4th and final game
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  here for today. Cardinals won eight to three
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  yesterday as a -, 110 Rd. favorite.
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  For the finale, Cardinals are going with the righty Miles
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  Michaelis. He comes in six and seven with a
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  5.19 ERA. Meanwhile, the Nats were 42 and
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  48. They're going to counter with
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  the lefty Mitchell Parker, who's five and four with a 3.61 ERA.
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  So we've seen across the market here, well, this game open at
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  basically a pick'em. It was around -110 -, 1 O 5.
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  Both sides mentioned this quite a bit.
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  But anytime a game opens at a pick'em, I automatically look
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  at, OK, where does the line move?
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  Because maybe wise guys who, you know, map the game and set their
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  own power ratings, maybe they agree that it's a pick'em bet.
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  But chances are maybe they have one team favored over the other.
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  So always look toward pick'em. What's the first move?
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  And the first move here with really no buyback is going
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  toward the the Nats at home. And that's notable because the
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  public is going on the Saint Louis Cardinals.
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  They have the better record. They've won two or three.
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  It's a coin flip price. How do you not back the
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  Cardinals? But despite nearly 60% of bets
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  going with the Cardinals, where is this line move?
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  It's gone toward the Nationals. Nationals -1 O 5 -, 110 now up
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  to -115 So taking a step back, if the public is going with the
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  Cardinals, you know it's a pick em game.
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  Why isn't the line going to Saint Louis?
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  No, it's going the other way in favor of the Nationals.
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  That tells me we have some sneaky reverse line movement
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  here coming in on Washington to hopefully earn the split in this
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  four-game series. Now the percentage of tickets,
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  the bet splits are interesting here.
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  Only around 40% of bets on the Nationals, but they're getting a
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  little more than 50% of the money.
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  So a little bit of a low bets, higher dollars bet split, which
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  is something that we look toward as a data-driven better.
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  And the Nats also would match some betting systems here in
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  terms of a non division favorite with the lack of familiarity
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  benefiting the better team and a buy low favorite off a loss.
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  Remember, that's our bounce back spot.
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  You lose your favorite the next day, you have the motivational
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  edge and you're expected to win. So that would also match with
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  Washington. Now the Cardinals last two
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  starts made by Michaelis, he's gotten lit up a bit.
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  He gave up eleven earned runs and his last 10.1 innings pitch.
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  So I'm hoping that the the Nationals can get to him today.
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  Now Parker, who's on the bump for the nationals been really
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  good at home this year. He's three and O with a 3.11 ERA
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  and six home starts this year. And by the way, anytime you see
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  a lefty on the bump, it's again, you see more readies and
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  lefties. But quick Google search, how how
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  does each team perform against lefties?
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  Well, hopefully this is a benefit if you're backing the
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  Nats with me because Saint Louis is only hitting 222 against
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  southpaws this year. That's 29th in Major League
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  Baseball, so adding it all up here, guys, this game open again
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  around to pick them. Publix on Saint Louis, but Lions
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  going to Washington. I got to back the Nats in this
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  one. So shop around, get a as if you
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  can find close to a -, 110, but probably around -115 that's the
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  number that I got here. So I'll be sweating.
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  The nationals hopefully to start off with a winner in the
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  nation's capital. Keep on cruising.
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  Next one up, Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Angels late game
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  here, 9:38 PM. Eastern Time on the East Coast.
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  This is the opener of a new three-game series in Los
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  Angeles. The Rangers come in 42 and 48.
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  They kind of struggled here. Remember, they won the World
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  Series last year. They've had some injuries.
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  They're starting to get a little hot.
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  They just swept the Rays. They won yesterday's series
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  finale 13 to two as a -, 135 home favorite.
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  You know, the Angels, they continue to underperform.
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  Mike Trout's been injured, so it's been a long year.
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  But they're now 37 and 52. Just dropped two or three
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  against the Cubs. They lost 5 nothing yesterday as
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  a + 130 Rd. dog. So for tonight's interleague
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  series opener, let's look at the pitching match up.
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  The Rangers are going to go with John Gray, who's three and four
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  with a 3.92 ERA. The the Angels, meanwhile, are
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  going to go with fellow righty Davis Daniel, who's one in one
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  with a 2.7 OERA. What have you seen across the
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  market here? Well, looks like smart money is
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  laying the chalk with the Rangers.
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  So that's where I'm going. I'm going Texas here, this game
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  open with the Rangers listed around a -, 135 road favorite
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  and Los Angeles around a + 120 home dog.
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  We've seen this line ever since it was available to bet.
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  It's all been movement toward Texas.
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  Texas has gotten steamed up -135 up to -145 I just noticed one
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  book inching up closer to -150 So again, we're looking at line
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  movement really $0.10 or more. And then is there a point at
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  which there's buyback? Well, we haven't really seen
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  that. It's been all one way in favor
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  of the Rangers. So that tells me the smart money
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  here is on Texas. They're getting around 80% of
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  money line bets in dollars. So both a pro and Joe bet split.
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  You have the public probably just saying hey, lesser of two
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  evils, 2 losing teams, might as well take the Rangers as their
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  favored and remembering them from winning the World Series.
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  But it's not just the public, you're also getting that around
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  80% of money line dollars are on the Rangers.
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  So it looks like both wise guys and casual betters are in
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  agreement here with Texas. Now one betting system that we
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  love here, two teams that are not very good below 502 sub 500
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  teams face off, take the favorite.
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  Very simple, but that lesser of two evils betting system match.
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  It's around 60% this season. Now Texas, I'm going to bank on
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  their offense. They're hitting 243 with 389
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  runs scored compared to LA hitting 235 with 359 runs
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  scored. Texas also hopefully has the
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  better and more rested bullpen. They have a bullpen ERA of 4.43
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  versus 4.7 O for the Angels. And also looking at the Rangers
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  from yesterday's game on Sunday, they had Nathan Vivaldi pitch a
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  gem and only had one reliever come out in that game, whereas
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  the Angels lost to the cubbies and three 3 relievers out of the
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  pen. So hopefully have a fresher and
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  more rested pen and better pen with the Rangers.
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  Of course, looking at recent performance, Rangers starting to
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  get a little hot. They're hitting 2/28 with a 3.62
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  ERA over the last 10 games. Angels meanwhile, only hitting
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  224 with a 3.87 ERA over the last 10 games.
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  So once again, look at the line movement here again, open around
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  Texas -135 now you're seeing the Rangers.
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  Get that up to -145 I'm going to lay it here with the Texas
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  Rangers shot again, shop around. You might find around a -, 142,
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  but most of these books again, closer to round -145 and also, I
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  screwed that up. Not 2/28 for the Rangers dating
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  288 their last ten games. So even better.
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  I knew that looked a little fishy because Rangers bats have
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  been going hot and I don't know if anyone made a Rookie of the
• 10:17
  Year bet on Wyatt Lankford, but Lankford's been hot.
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  He had four hits yesterday. He's now up to 270 on the year
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  for homers, 37 RBI. So I want to say I got Lankford
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  at +300 maybe. I know Luis Heel there was the
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  favorite. I think still is.
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  But maybe Lankford getting hot is a good omen here for tonight.
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  So once again, line move toward the Rangers Rd. favorite with
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  steam. I'm going Texas here at -145
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  Last bet for you, Major League Baseball.
• 10:44
  Let's go to the Windy City, Chicago for a match up here
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  tonight between the Minnesota Twins and the Chicago White Sox.
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  This is a 8:10 PM Eastern Time. First pitch, first game of the
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  opener and a three-game series. Now, I'm not going to look
• 10:57
  toward the money line in this one.
• 10:59
  I mean, right now you have, it seems like an easy bet to take
• 11:02
  Minnesota. But actually this line, you
• 11:04
  know, open around twins -190 and they're still -190 some shops
• 11:09
  down to like -185 S looks like an obvious bet with the Twins.
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  But I'm not I'm not laying this number because it has ticked
• 11:15
  down a little bit and it is a divisional game as well.
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  But I'm going to focus on the total for this one.
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  So it jumped out to me is hopefully we have some runs in
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  this game tonight. First thing I noticed.
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  Let's go with the pitching match up.
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  Chris Paddock is going with going for Minnesota.
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  He's five and three with a 5.29 ERA.
• 11:32
  You know, Chris Flexen is going for the White Sox two and seven,
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  five point O 8 ERA straight off the bat.
• 11:38
  We don't have any aces on the bump.
• 11:39
  These are two guys with high ER as.
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  I'm going to give you some stats here for them because they've
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  been getting hit pretty hard recently in the month of June
• 11:46
  going into July. But two starting off with two,
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  two pictures with high ER as. But really, let's focus on the
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  total here because it opened at 9:00 and you're seeing every
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  book painted across the board, as my buddy Patrick Maher likes
• 11:58
  to say, 9 / -, 120 -, 115 -, 120.
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  So right off the bat, liability looks toward the over and I'm
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  even seeing some shops at 9 1/2. So what's important here is if
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  you're going to go with the over with me, you got to shop around
• 12:13
  and find that nine because again, if this is a 5 four-game
• 12:16
  and we get an over 9, we'll push.
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  Obviously we want to win. I hope this flies way over.
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  But if you get a nine and a half and it lands five to four,
• 12:23
  you're going to lose that over 9 1/2.
• 12:25
  So once again, if you've learned anything from the all all
• 12:28
  systems Gopod, hopefully you've created multiple accounts so you
• 12:32
  can shop around and get the best odds available to you.
• 12:34
  So got to find that nine. I'm on 9 over at -120 Not only
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  is it juiced up over, but a really good bet split to the
• 12:41
  over at DraftKings. Right now only 51% of bets are
• 12:44
  on the over, but it accounts for 74% of the money.
• 12:48
  So if we just stick with the money line split 5050, a line
• 12:52
  really shouldn't move at all. Yet we're seeing the juice
• 12:55
  toward the over in some books, even going from 9 up to 9 1/2.
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  And then you look at the comparison bets in dollars, 51%
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  bets, 74% dollars. That's a + 23% smart money
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  discrepancy to the over. So we got liability over with
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  the total. We have some shops even going to
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  9 1/2. We have two high ERA pitchers.
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  Paddock, by the way, is coming off the injured list.
• 13:17
  So maybe he'll even be on a bit of a pitch count here or a short
• 13:20
  hook. But if you look at these
• 13:21
  pictures, dig a little deeper. Paddock has a 7.79 ERA.
• 13:25
  In the month of June, he made four starts again, ERA close to
• 13:28
  8. And he's been way worse on the
• 13:30
  road than at home. On the road, 7.84 ERA.
• 13:33
  At home 3.61 ERA. Meanwhile, flexing he's also
• 13:37
  been worse on the at home 5.25 ERA versus on the road 4.86 also
• 13:43
  head to head, we have seen seven games between these two teams.
• 13:47
  Again, divisional opponents who play each other used to be 19 *
• 13:50
  a year. What's it now?
• 13:51
  Maybe 1513, but anyway, seven games the over is five and two.
• 13:56
  So whether it's games at Minnesota, at Chicago, we've
• 13:58
  seen quite a bit of scoring here.
• 14:00
  Hopefully that continues tonight.
• 14:02
  Last 10 games, White Sox rating 253, not bad.
• 14:06
  Minnesota hitting 314. So for the bats, continue
• 14:08
  tonight. And then anytime you're looking
• 14:10
  at a total, at least be aware of the weather because it can have
• 14:13
  a big effect on the total. And tonight, Windy City, it's
• 14:17
  not going to be crazy windy. It's about 5 to 10 mph blowing
• 14:21
  left to right slightly out, but it is going to be a warm night.
• 14:23
  It's about 85° in Chicago and looking at when it's hot, that's
• 14:28
  a good thing for a total. The pitcher sweats, he maybe
• 14:31
  make a mistake. And then of course you're
• 14:33
  looking at the ball traveling a little further when the when the
• 14:37
  rares when the air is a little bit little bit thinner.
• 14:40
  Also bullpen Chicago White Sox, the fifth worst bullpen in Major
• 14:43
  League Baseball, a 4.52 ERA and also not a huge factor.
• 14:48
  But you know, if you're giving me the the the choice, I guess,
• 14:53
  of taking a total with a home dog or home favorite, you want
• 14:56
  to go with the over if it's a home dog because, you know,
• 14:59
  chances are the White Sox might be losing and they're going to
• 15:01
  be pretty much guaranteed their last at bat.
• 15:03
  So it's always just kind of a feather in the cab if you're
• 15:06
  going to play the over here. So you add it all up, guys.
• 15:08
  I'm going to go over Minnesota, Chicago looking for a lot of
• 15:11
  runs. Let's get 10 or more.
• 15:13
  But again, make sure you shop around and try to find that over
• 15:15
  nine. I got over nine at -120 said
• 15:20
  about does it again, not ton of action today.
• 15:22
  There's no WNBA, but we do have a baseball slate.
• 15:24
  Let's see if we can eke out A2 in one day and and and get a
• 15:27
  little bit of a profit. Go with the Washington Nationals
• 15:30
  at -115, the Rangers at -145 and Minnesota Chicago over 9.
• 15:36
  Now, if you enjoy this podcast, I will ask something of you.
• 15:40
  Could you please give it a 5 star review?
• 15:42
  Whether you're listening on Spotify or iTunes goes a long
• 15:45
  way to rising up the ranks as well as, you know, kind of
• 15:49
  getting more eyeballs and growing organically or I guess
• 15:52
  not eyeballs on a on a pod like this, but maybe more ears
• 15:54
  listening to the pod. But of course, if you also want
• 15:58
  to give it a follow that way you'll be alerted as soon as the
• 16:01
  pod drops. You'll be the first to know
• 16:03
  because you know these numbers can move.
• 16:04
  You want to get him in early. But I do very much appreciate
• 16:07
  you guys listening each day. Hopefully we can grind out a
• 16:10
  profit for today. Of course, if you enjoy the pod
• 16:13
  and you want to learn more about data-driven, sharp contrarian
• 16:16
  bedding, I did write a book. So you can just go to Amazon.com
• 16:19
  and type in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 16:22
  Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
• 16:24
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
• 16:26
  set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
• 16:29
  locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
• 16:32
  how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
• 16:35
  management plan, all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
• 16:38
  Betting. Lastly, of course, give a shout
• 16:40
  out to two of my favorite sharp betting apps on the market.
• 16:43
  One Rhythm, who does a great job of powering this podcast.
• 16:46
  Rhythm helped us win a couple. I think we're three and three
• 16:49
  and one, our last four WWNBA bets thanks to Rhythm and their
• 16:54
  projected models. I know it's kind of the summer
• 16:56
  and you know, it's slow here, but remember Rhythm, if you have
• 16:59
  never bet WNBA, they're going to give you a leg up.
• 17:01
  We don't have any games today, but I noticed there's one for
• 17:03
  tomorrow and I think there's two or three on Wednesday.
• 17:06
  So we're looking for system matches, whether you create your
• 17:09
  own model, which is a great part of Rhythm, or if you just follow
• 17:12
  the AI back model. And then of course, the
• 17:14
  community feature, which is going to be a premium feature
• 17:17
  where it pulls all the users and people who have created a model
• 17:21
  in Rhythm and then compiles and kind of looks at, hey, what
• 17:24
  percentage of those models are leaning, you know, dog fave over
• 17:28
  under. So that's been a great asset as
• 17:30
  well. But give Rhythm a shot.
• 17:32
  If you haven't done it yet, you can just click that custom link
• 17:34
  and get a 7 day free trial by clicking in the bio description
• 17:38
  of this podcast. Of course, want to give a shout
• 17:40
  out to my friends at Juice Reel as well who help us to power
• 17:43
  this podcast. Juice Reel is great for a
• 17:46
  multitude of reasons. One, I love syncing your sports
• 17:48
  books to Juice Reel. That way when you place a bet at
• 17:51
  whatever app you have, DraftKings, FanDuel, bet MGM,
• 17:55
  you know, ESPN bet Caesars Fanatics, whatever it may be,
• 17:59
  it'll automatically sync to Juice Reel.
• 18:01
  It'll compile your basically a report card of your performance.
• 18:04
  You can learn more about yourself as a better, your
• 18:06
  strengths and weaknesses, as well as get detailed reports on
• 18:09
  your performance. And what I really like are the
• 18:12
  Robo Jackson AI generated best bet picks because I noticed I
• 18:15
  wanted to put this in there. I forgot to mention it, but we
• 18:18
  do have Juice Reel 2 bets each day that come out at noon
• 18:22
  Eastern Time. One of them is on the Washington
• 18:25
  Nationals. So I always like it when I do my
• 18:27
  research and come up with a play that I think based on the data
• 18:31
  is providing value. And then Juice Reel, the AI
• 18:33
  model backs it up. So you have an overlap with the
• 18:35
  Nationals. So that that's great to see and
• 18:38
  then juice Reel, of course, with their sharp mush bets as well as
• 18:40
  their arbitrage opportunities, you can grind out a profit there
• 18:43
  as well. So once again, Rhythm juice reel
• 18:46
  just go click that custom link in the bio description of this
• 18:49
  pod and get your 7 day free trial started off right.
• 18:53
  So that about does it for episode 71 of the all systems Go
• 18:56
  sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 18:59
  My parting words as always, whether I see you at the Borgata
• 19:02
  in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
• 19:04
  Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, at the
• 19:08
  Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
• 19:11
  In my neck of the woods in Boston.
• 19:13
  Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
• 19:15
  down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners at the South
• 19:18
  Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
• 19:21
  stadium swim pool at Circa. If you ever get a chance, you
• 19:24
  got to get to Circa. My favorite sports book in in
• 19:27
  the country. I would say it's about as good
• 19:28
  as it gets, wherever it may be. Hopefully you're going to walk
• 19:30
  up to me, show me a couple winning tickets here for tonight
• 19:34
  and then guess what, I'll buy you a beer, I'll buy you a
• 19:36
  ginger ale if you don't drink and we'll sweat.
• 19:38
  Sharp contrarian plays all night long said about does it
• 19:41
  everyone? My parting words, as always,
• 19:43
  stay sharp, stay contrarian. Bet against the public, place
• 19:46
  yourself on the side of the house.
• 19:47
  Always be with the smart money, never against it.
• 19:49
  Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
• 19:52
  But remember, anything can happen to one off.
• 19:54
  But if we continue to stick to the data, making sharp bets with
• 19:57
  our head and not our heart, bypassing the games that present
• 20:00
  red flags and getting down on games that fit our model against
• 20:04
  the public with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid
• 20:07
  parlays and get some closing line value.
• 20:09
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors
• 20:11
  long term. So enjoy the sweats, everyone.
• 20:14
  That's it for Episode 71. And you know what?
• 20:17
  I got to go to the beach right now and enjoy the rest of my day
• 20:19
  at the San Onofre Beach and San Clemente, which is right by San
• 20:24
  Diego. So hope you're having a great
• 20:26
  day, everyone. I'll see you tomorrow for
• 20:27
  Episode 72. Of the all systems Go sports
• 20:30
  betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 20:32
  Good luck everybody, have a great Monday.