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Why you should ignore most stock market forecasts · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zanta and Mike Armstrong.
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  Speaker 2: Kicking off Hour two on the Financial Exchange is Chuck, Mike,
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  Speaker 2: and Tucker with you on a Jobs Friday. Two hundred
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  Speaker 2: and twenty seven thousand jobs created, though the unemployment rate
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  Speaker 2: did rise slightly to four point two percent for the
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  Speaker 2: month of November, few concerning signs underneath the hood as well.
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  Speaker 2: So even though the headline number was good, it's one
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  Speaker 2: that we looked at and said, yeah, there's a few
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  Speaker 2: problems here that need to start showing a little bit
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  Speaker 2: of recovery in the coming months. Nothing that is, you know,
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  Speaker 2: a huge glaring red flag, but you know a few
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: things that need to be buttoned up in order for
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  Speaker 2: us to say, yeah, the labor market is getting healthier
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  Speaker 2: instead of continuing to weaken. Markets responding with kind of
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  Speaker 2: a shrug for the most part, the dows up thirty
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  Speaker 2: nine points, tenth of a percent, s Piece up twenty points,
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  Speaker 2: so about a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq
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  Speaker 2: is up one hundred and thirty four points. Nasdak strength
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  Speaker 2: over the last week has been impressive, especially given the
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  Speaker 2: last five months before that didn't really have much strength
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  Speaker 2: in the Nasdaq. The tenure US Treasury is down one
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  Speaker 2: basis point to four point one seven percent. We've got
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  Speaker 2: oil off ninety seven cents today to sixty seven.
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  Speaker 3: To thirty three.
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  Speaker 2: That has also pushed the TRIPA national average for gas
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  Speaker 2: prices down to three h two and six tenths of
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  Speaker 2: a cent, down another six tenths from yesterday, So continuing
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  Speaker 2: to make their way down towards that three dollars mark nationally.
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  Speaker 2: We're not there yet, but uh, we might get there
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  Speaker 2: next week. So a little bit of movement on that front.
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  Speaker 2: And we've got gold today up ten sixty ounce to
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  Speaker 2: twenty six to fifty nine and zero cents.
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  Speaker 3: I just like to add to zero cents. Yeah important?
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  Speaker 2: You know when something costs almost twenty seven hundred dollars,
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  Speaker 2: no ounce, every cent counts, you know.
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  Speaker 4: I want to talk a piece about a piece from
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  Speaker 4: the Wall Street Journal. Do you want to talk about cars?
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  Speaker 1: Though?
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  Speaker 3: No? Okay, but what do you got? I'm trying to
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  Speaker 3: read it sideways. Is this wildly overvalued stock market doomed? Yes?
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  Speaker 3: But maybe not yet.
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  Speaker 4: So I know it's a sensationalist headline, but I actually
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  Speaker 4: think it fits pretty well into a point that we
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  Speaker 4: have been attempting sensationalists.
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  Speaker 3: It's wishy washy, yes, but maybe not yet.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's wishy washy, and it's a bad headline, but
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  Speaker 4: terrible headline if if investors aren't there out there, aren't
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  Speaker 4: really aware of this market right now. And trust me,
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  Speaker 4: I talked to plenty of people who are not really
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  Speaker 4: aware of just how pricey stocks are and just how
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  Speaker 4: pessimistic big banks are about the long term future.
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  Speaker 3: I think they need to get a little bit educated.
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  Speaker 4: And so I kind of put this as like a
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  Speaker 4: one of the more important general market pieces that the
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  Speaker 4: Wall Street Journal has put together this entire year, And
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  Speaker 4: so to frame it, big banks like Goldman Sachs Bank
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  Speaker 4: of America are predicting that markets only return like zero
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  Speaker 4: to three percent over the next decade and repeat something
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  Speaker 4: that we saw in times like the two thousands decade
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  Speaker 4: where markets just didn't really make any money. And if
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  Speaker 4: you're not really prepared for something like that, but we
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  Speaker 4: haven't seen it in twenty years, and it could really
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  Speaker 4: ruin you.
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  Speaker 3: Is there any evidence that they're any good at this? Though? None?
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  Speaker 3: But why should I?
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  Speaker 2: I'm not saying that I should or shouldn't. But should
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  Speaker 2: I listen to Goldman Sachs. No, I don't think you
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  Speaker 2: should believe and fund your investment strategy based on them
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  Speaker 2: thinking that markets are only going to do three percent
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  Speaker 2: per year. But what I would say is that I
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  Speaker 2: think there's a large portion of Americans who don't even.
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  Speaker 3: Realize that that's a possibility.
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  Speaker 2: That's fair, And I think if you look at this, like,
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  Speaker 2: let's look at a decade, and I'm using data here
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  Speaker 2: from a website called Don't Quit your Day Job and
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  Speaker 2: not good advice, but they calculate different historical returns for
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  Speaker 2: different indices and things like that, and so the S
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: and P five hundred, if you will get ten year
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  Speaker 2: periods historically, according to their data, the average return is
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  Speaker 2: nine point three six nine points three six four three
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  Speaker 2: four six percent, and the median fiftieth percentile returns are
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  Speaker 2: is uh eight point six eight seven percent, pretty narrow.
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  Speaker 3: So well that that's again average and.
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  Speaker 4: Media, yep, I agree, but they're you know, it indicates
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  Speaker 4: that that's a pretty good number to use.
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  Speaker 2: The S and P five hundred, according to them, has
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  Speaker 2: returned under three percent per year for a decade. Eight
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  Speaker 2: percent of the time. So ninety two percent of circumstances,
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  Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred is beaten what Goldman
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  Speaker 2: is saying it's going to do for the next decades.
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  Speaker 2: So what I will say on this I looked back
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  Speaker 2: just because I was curious. Goldman back in twenty twelve
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  Speaker 2: said that the next decade twenty twelve through twenty two
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  Speaker 2: would have eight percent equity returns over that time period,
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  Speaker 2: which was kind of just a boring like average, Yeah, sure,
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  Speaker 2: like you think stocks are gonna be average over the
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  Speaker 2: next decade.
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  Speaker 3: Like twenty twelve twenty two, How do I pay you
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  Speaker 3: for this valuable information? They're probably pretty close, weren't they.
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  Speaker 3: They were twenty twelve through twenty two.
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  Speaker 2: I mean they were probably better, so, like just looking
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  Speaker 2: at it here, So twenty twelve was sixteen, twenty thirteen
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  Speaker 2: was thirty two, twenty fourteen was thirteen, twenty fifteen was one,
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  Speaker 2: twenty sixteen twelve, twenty seventeen, twenty one, twenty eighteen minus four,
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  Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, thirty one, twenty twenty eighteen, twenty twenty one
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  Speaker 2: was twenty eight percent. So it was probably like thirteen
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  Speaker 2: or fourteen percent. But again, like they shot their shot
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  Speaker 2: and whatever, it's it's fine.
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  Speaker 4: I think the pointed that the article is making, though,
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  Speaker 4: is that when you can textualize those same returns around
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  Speaker 4: periods of time that have put stocks as pricey as
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  Speaker 4: they are right now, the results have been bad.
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  Speaker 2: They have been, but it still is a gutsy move
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  Speaker 2: for Goldman to come out and be like, hey, stocks
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  Speaker 2: are gonna be like bottom eighth percentile bad over the
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  Speaker 2: next decade, and Bank of America is saying, hey, you
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  Speaker 2: might get zero to one percent for the next year.
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  Speaker 2: That is like bottom second percentile bad. Yeah, almost never happens.
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  Speaker 4: Now, the question is Bank of America, your analysts are
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  Speaker 4: saying this, You're head of your bank is putting out
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  Speaker 4: this projection, and.
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  Speaker 2: You just put out that next year the S and
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  Speaker 2: P five hundred is gonna be up like ten.
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  Speaker 4: Percent, right, And that would be what I ask Goldman
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  Speaker 4: in Banked of America is when somebody walks into let's
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  Speaker 4: use Bank of America because Goldman, it doesn't work this way.
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  Speaker 4: But when somebody walks into your bank and speaks to
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  Speaker 4: one of your Marrile investment.
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  Speaker 3: Manager, what are they saying?
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  Speaker 4: What are they telling those clients that are you know
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  Speaker 4: that are saying, I have money here that I need
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  Speaker 4: to do something well.
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  Speaker 2: Because here's the thing. If if Bank of America is saying,
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  Speaker 2: let me see what they're twenty five.
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  Speaker 4: I think stocks are gonna earn zero to one percent.
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  Speaker 4: Guess what ten Your treasury is earning like four point three.
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  Speaker 4: So Bank of America's target, is they did this is
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  Speaker 4: just to be funny, is six six hundred and sixty six.
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  Speaker 4: That's their end of year target for next year ten
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  Speaker 4: and a half percent gains based on where it was
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  Speaker 4: four days ago when they made that prediction. So if
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  Speaker 4: Bank of America is saying, hey, the next decade you're
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  Speaker 4: gonna get one percent a year on stocks, but next
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  Speaker 4: year you're gonna return ten, then that basically means, hey,
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  Speaker 4: after next year, we expect zero, which then raises, not begs,
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  Speaker 4: the question, dear Bank of America, after I invest in
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  Speaker 4: your stocks next year, why should I invest in stocks
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  Speaker 4: for the next nine years. It's a good question, like
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  Speaker 4: because again this is what they are saying. Now, I
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  Speaker 4: don't have a twelve month prediction for the S and
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  Speaker 4: P five hundred. I don't have a one hundred and
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  Speaker 4: twenty month prediction for the S and p.
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  Speaker 3: Five hundred.
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  Speaker 2: I'm not smart enough to look out ten years in
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  Speaker 2: the future and tell you what stocks are going to return.
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  Speaker 2: But when when Bank of America is saying, hey, your
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  Speaker 2: stocks are going to return basically nothing for the next
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  Speaker 2: ten years, but next year is going to be good,
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  Speaker 2: So that means mems a lot of self service. So
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  Speaker 2: that means that the next nine are going to be
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  Speaker 2: really bad.
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  Speaker 1: Huh.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, And so this is what does one do with
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  Speaker 4: all of this though?
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  Speaker 3: Like what am I supposed to do with this? Joe
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  Speaker 3: Norma with a four oh one k? Ignore it? Yeah,
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  Speaker 3: ignore it? Because you like.
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  Speaker 2: They they never come out and tell you, hey, we
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  Speaker 2: were wrong and here's how we've adjusted our model to
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  Speaker 2: get better. Yeah, and they only tell you these once
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  Speaker 2: a year. That you notice how they never tell you
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  Speaker 2: the next month's price target.
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  Speaker 3: I would Here's what I would say. I wouldn't say
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  Speaker 3: ignore it.
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  Speaker 4: I would say, tell me what happens to your per
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  Speaker 4: financial situation if stocks If.
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  Speaker 3: They're right about which parts.
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  Speaker 4: About the next decade returning nothing for stocks? Can you
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  Speaker 4: survive if that happens? Like, that's an important question for
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  Speaker 4: everyone to ask themselves. So and that's not because Bank
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  Speaker 4: of America is saying that it's going to happen. That's
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  Speaker 4: because if you're evaluating your own situation and you haven't
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  Speaker 4: tested that theory, then you're doing yourself a disservice anytime.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think a fair question is, hey, can
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  Speaker 2: I assume that stocks are going to be as good
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  Speaker 2: as they've been for the last ten years?
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  Speaker 3: I would probably not.
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  Speaker 2: You know, It's like that's a tough performance to repeat,
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  Speaker 2: and if you're banking on that for your financial security,
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  Speaker 2: you might need a little bit of work.
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: Let's take a quick break here.
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: When we come back, we'll talk about how Americans cars
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: are getting older and creakier, and we're else gonna do
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: a little bit of trivia right after this.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks to US six one, seven, three, six two thirteen
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  Speaker 1: eighty five with your comments and questions about today's show,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: and let us know what you think about the stories
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: we are covering. This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: Piece from the Wall Street Journal Americans cars keep getting
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: older and creaky as the headline. The subheader is drivers
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: are skimping to save a few bucks. That could mean
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: bigger bills down the road and a rebound for the
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: parts and service companies, so.
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  Speaker 3: No, which part.
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: All of its older and cars are getting older and creaker.
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  Speaker 3: That's true. Drivers are skimping to save a few bucks.
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  Speaker 2: They're not doing this because they're like, yeah, I just
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: I love saving money and this is the best. They're
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: doing it because they don't have the money to pay
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: for those repairs. So when the bigger ones come, they're
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: not going to be able to pay for those either, right.
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's getting bad enough that people are foregoing
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: auto insurance on their cars, right, which is illegal in
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: every state of the New Hampshire.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: It's not like, hey, you know what, I'm to put
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: off this three hundred dollar bill so I can spend
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: three thousand dollars in a couple of years. Everyone who's
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: ever owned anything knows that if you can, you do
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: some preventive maintenance to save a big bill down the road.
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  Speaker 2: I'm just not buying that. Americans are sitting there going
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: like they like, Americans have not forgotten this service companies. Yeah,
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: we're just trying to put this off as long as
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: possible so that we can spend ten times as much later.
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: Unfortunately, too, Like you've talked about stuff around the home
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: and how easy it is to pull up a YouTube video.
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: I did the same thing last night. I needed to
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: unclog a bathtub drain and I didn't have the tool
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: I needed to remove the the actual drain, and I
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: did pull up a quick YouTube video found out all
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: you need is a golf called and a squirrel and
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: you're good.
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: Needlenose pliers and figured it out.
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: And that's not really doable in cars that were built
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: over the last decade. Some things are you can train
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: your oil, you can do some things on your own,
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: but the diagnostics tools required to even figure out what's
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: wrong with your car these days are not really available
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: to the general public.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: By the way, that that's also starting to happen with
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: some home stuff as well. Yeah, you will get anything,
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: not anything, but a lot of stuff that's HVAC related
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: and the tech that goes into it now and it's
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: not as simple as Okay, I can do this with
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: whatever's in my garage. It might mean that you have
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: to have specific training on the computer parts for you know,
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: whatever is in your boiler, whatever is in your you know,
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: whatever your air conditioning.
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: It's it's not as simple as it used to be.
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: I do get the older cars piece though, I mean
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  Speaker 4: with the pricing of cars these days, it's just.
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  Speaker 2: With the pricing of cars that people are choosing these days. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: I maintain anyone who wants to can get a very
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: capable vehicle for thirty two thousand dollars. You don't have
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: to be spending the forty eight thousand dollars average that
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: Americans spends on new cars. You know, you can get very,
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: very capable, very comfortable vehicles in the twenties brand new.
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: I drive a twenty twenty two Honda Civic, and my
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: cars are so old and lame that my kids call
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: it the cool car.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: We have three cars. The cool one is the Civic.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: I hate to know what the bad ones are. Well,
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: the uncool ones are real. They're really uncool. We've we've
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: got a ugo, a covered wagon, and a dog sled.
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gotten bad around the Armstrong House.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: South Korean president could declare martial law againstis ruling party leader.
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: I'm sorry.
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: So the reason that I can laugh about this is
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: because basically nothing's happened at this point, Like, no one's died.
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: Like I get that it's.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: Nerve wracking for those who are over in Korea, like
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: I have three buddies who live in Korea right now
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: to are Korean and from there, and one is stationed
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: there in the military, and you know they're like a
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: little frustrated and a little on edge because of all this.
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: Obviously well and also like you think about South Korea,
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: you gotta be some of the most amazingly resilient people
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: when it comes to emergency type situations. Your next door
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: neighbor launches rockets and threatens to bomb you every other day.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: You have like a certain sense of calm about stuff
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: because you just you have to. The best thing I
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: saw so far out of the protests on this, there
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: was one there were probably I don't know, maybe a
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: thousand people gathered in some square in Soul and they
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: had they had written an impeachment song to the tune
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: of Police Navidad, where it basically the whole premise of
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: it was the only way we could have a happy
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: Christmas is if un Is impeached, and so I created
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: but it was fantastic, and it was in Korean, so
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: I couldn't understand it, but I just thought it was
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: really good. But okay, so you try to surprise coup
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: on Tuesday. Now, you're telling people that you're gonna try
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: to coop again maybe this weekend. This we couldn't do
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: it with the element of surprise, but if we tell
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: people it's coming, maybe we'll get different results.
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: Like what what are you trying to do here? At
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: this point? Yeah, you're you are out, sir.
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: You know, I mean, your acting defense chief has told
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: reporters that you're gonna that he's going to refuse the
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: Institute of Martial law. So how are you gonna pull
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: this one off? You know who this guy belongs with?
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: You weren't It was Paul who was here on Wednesday.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we covered a story of a couple of Miami
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: I think they were from Miami from Florida, a couple
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: of Florida business people that got twenty years in jail
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: for a Ponzi scheme that they ran. And the fascinating
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: thing about them was so they got caught by the
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: SEC in the fall of twenty twenty one, and then
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: when they were you know, released on bail or their
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: own reconnaissance or whatever, started back and they started another
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: one right after. Wow, It's like okay, like they're probably
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: looking at you at this point, Well, you got hafty
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: legal bills you gotta pay. They should get together with
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: this guy being investigated by Hey, my first coup failed,
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: so you know what I'm gonna do a week later.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna tell you I'm cooing and try again. We're
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: gonna recoop. Let's recoop mallagad. Actually, no, you it's great
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: because of the spelling. We can try to recoop the
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: recoop and see how many. Yeah, I'm sorry that it's
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: pretty fair. Again, this is actually pretty scary stuff. They're
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: like how many?
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: How many American military members are stationed in Korea? Like
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: this is this is serious stuff, but it is kind
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: of funny.
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: It's the first one was serious. When someone tells you
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: they're going to coup again, I just don't know that
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: it's that serious. Then, yeah, I mean sure, Like, but
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: because it's right next to North Korea, you're sitting there
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: and you're like, hey, does does Kim Jong un think
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: that this is the time for him?
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: Right? Probably not, because he's also not dumb, But I
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: don't know, are you sure about that?
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he's a very horrible human being, but he's not stupid. Like,
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: you don't exercise dictatorial control over an entire country by
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: being very dumb.
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: Fair.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: He might be a horrible human being, but I don't
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: think he's stupid. Quick break here, we've got the trivia
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: answer after this.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: Mike, let's talk a little bit about this great title,
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: one of my favorite titles from a piece that we've
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: seen this year. The piece is fine as well, but
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: the title A retirement expert's best advice, don't retire that sucks?
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: So what is it you say you do here?
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: So, yeah, this is a This is a piece by
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: Jessica Hall about an economist named Alicia Mannell who has
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: made a career around, you know, retirement economics.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: And by the way, she's eighty two and still working Manila's.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: So she's following her own advice.
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: She is following advice, and based on her research, in
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: good economic times, forty percent of retirees cannot maintain their
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: standard of living in retirement, while in bad economic times
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: that figure rises to fifty percent. So take that for
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: what you will, but it kind of lines up with
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: a lot of statistics that we know about that you know,
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: half of Americans aren't really saving for retirement, that there's
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: a huge portion of Americans that don't have any money invested.
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: I think it's about half of Americans have no money
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: invested in the stock market, for example, And so I
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: don't think I find it immensely surprising. The advice really stinks.
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: I mean, don't retire your best retirement advice. But I
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: have a different, I guess twist on it that I
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: would say is useful.
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: Go ahead, No, no, you go, because you might have
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: the same twist I do.
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: So where I see mistakes from folks is retiring because
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: they feel like they're at that point where they should
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: are supposed to retire, And that is just a dumb idea.
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: You should retire because there are specific.
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: Things that you want to accomplish now that work is over.
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: Not because hey, my employer said I can't work past
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: sixty five, or my uncle, my cousin, my nephew, my
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: you know this, that or the other. My father retired
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: at sixty six, sixty seven, seventy years old, and so
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: that's when I'm going to retire, because that's when it's done.
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: Those are bad reasons to retire. Good reasons to retire is, Hey,
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: I've worked my rear end off. I have a bunch
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: of things that I am healthy enough to accomplish and
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: will have time to do so, So I am making
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: a plan and I'm going to retire.
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: Now, that was what I was going to say. Was
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: your twist?
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: So you said it was forty percent of people have
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: to change their standard of living in retirement.
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: Yes, is what she said. Can't maintain that standard of living,
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: so likely have to change it.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: My question is on the other side, Hey, what's the
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: percentage that could have retired earlier but didn't because they
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: were too nervous to fault that they were going to
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: fall into that forty percent? And I don't know, Like,
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: is it ten is it twenty percent of the retirees
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: that fall into that bucket?
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: But how many people are out there who are saying, look,
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: I do want to retire because I'm tired. I want
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: to spend time with the grandkids, or I want to
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: go travel the world, or I want to go build
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: a sailboat and live alone on it. Like whatever whatever
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: your thing is, that's fine, Like it doesn't have to
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: be what anyone else wants.
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: You to do.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: But how many people put it off an extra year,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: two years, three years, four years, And it's because they're
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: too nervous about retiring. And then I've seen it a
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: number ten and then something happens and they get sick
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: or whatever.
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: That's where I was gonna go to, which is a
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: bit sad.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: And then they miss out on something that they really
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: want that they could have had.
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: Because ask people who are on their deathbed what their
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: largest regrets are in life.
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: It's almost never about not saving enough for retirement.
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: It's always about, you know, I had this opportunity, I
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: didn't take it. I should have done that, you know,
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: I should have spent more time with family. I wish
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: I had taken this opportunity or been just a little
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: bit more confident in my decision making process when I
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: was younger. It's never ah, man, you know, when I
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: was eighty two, I had a worse lifestyle in thought
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: because I didn't put enough my four one k are
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: you kidding me? So I'm not telling everybody that you
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: can afford to retire that that is definitely far from
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: the truth. I am telling people that I frequently see
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: folks who work in a job that they hate longer
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: than they have to because they're worried about falling into
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: this forty percent sure, and they're worried about it with
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: zero evidence that they will. Yeah, And so if you're
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: listening right now, my point would be, I don't know
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: which bucket you fall into. I don't know if you
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: can afford to retire or not. But if you don't
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: know either, then spend some time figuring it out, because,
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: like I said, when when when I speak with folks
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: about their regrets in life, it's almost never about man,
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: I wish I had worked a few extra years there.
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: It's always about, oh, I wish I had spent my
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: younger years better. If you have questions like that, if
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: you don't know which bucket you fall into and whether
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: or not you can afford to retire, please call the
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: folks at Armstrong Advisory Group. We do this for our
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: clients every day. We assess whether or not they can
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: continue to maintain their lifestyle after they are cutting off
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: their one way of pulling in an income for their
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: entire lives. Call us at arms Armstrong Advisory Group at
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one. We
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: offer free one on one consultations about this very subject.
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: Again.
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: That phone number four the Armstrong Advisory Group is eight
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: your own financial, tax and estate planning advisors before making
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: advisory services.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: Mike, was it last week that we were covering the
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: piece on financial scams versus financial fraud?
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: Yes? Maybe it was. Whenever it was, I got a
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: new one yesterday. I meant to talk tempted fraud or scam.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: Yes, I meant to talk about it during yesterday's show
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: because I got a text message during one of the
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: segments and it said that I had a parcel that
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: was stopped at the Canadian border because there was an
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: inaccurate ZIP code, and that I had to reply to
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: this and then I would be sent a link in
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: order to get my information to Canadian customs so that
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: my package could get to me.
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: Important.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: Now, I don't know very much about how things work
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: at the Canadian US border, but here's one thing I
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: do know. The first is if something's coming into the
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: United States, it's not going through Canadian customs, it's going
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: through US customs. So I picked up on that right away.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: Behind that, you hadn't ordered any fur hats recently. Beyond that,
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: so my zip code was wrong on this parcel coming
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: from Canada, but my phone number was correct correct, and
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: the Mounties just text.
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: You, yeah, that's there again. Way of reaching out.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: The big thing that I say on all this, because look,
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: some of this stuff can't get kind of scary and
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: kind of spooky. If you get anyone who is texting you,
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: calling you saying you need to send money or fill
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: out this link right now, hang up, put down the phone,
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: don't text back. Find a contact number on a piece
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: of paper that you have in your house for whatever
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: the thing is, or talk to a friend who can
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: get you the contact number from the internet.
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: If you're not like an Internet person.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: Like, find a way to get an actual contact number
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: and use that to actually figure out if something is
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: going on or not. Do not, under any circumstances start
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: giving information to someone who says you need to move
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: money right now, or give them information right away. I
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: do this, by the way, even with legitimate things. Someone
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: who I work with sent me an email yesterday with
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: an attachment in it. Before I opened it, called them up, Hey,
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: did you send me an attachment? Yep, I did, great,
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: I'm going to open this now.
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: Granted, I'm a little paranoid on this stuff, but an
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: ounce of paranoia prevents like a whole bunch of money
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: being stolen.
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: I think that's my key message is adopt those practices
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: of paranoia now, because what any cybersecurity expert will tell
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: you is with the pace of development on artificial intelligence,
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: it's about to become orders of magnitude more difficult to detect.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break on that note, and when
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: we come back, we're going to be joined by paul
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: A Monica from Barons.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: Right after this, breaking business and financial news first throughout
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: the day. Only here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Find daily interviews and full shows of the Financial Exchange
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: on how are YouTube page, get cut up on anything
• 27:19
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• 27:22
  Speaker 1: Exchange Radio Network, Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: The Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled
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• 28:00
  Speaker 2: We're now joined by Paul Amonica from Barons. We're talking
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: about a small little telecom company by the name of
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: Verizon today.
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: Paul, how you doing good? Thanks? How are you guys doing?
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: We're doing well. What's gott Verison in the news? In
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: your eyes?
• 28:16
  Speaker 6: Yeah? I think Verizon is just an interesting, you know
• 28:20
  Speaker 6: stock to look ahead to in twenty twenty five. It
• 28:23
  Speaker 6: hasn't done poorly per se, up about like thirteen percent
• 28:28
  Speaker 6: this year, but that lags the broader market by a
• 28:31
  Speaker 6: decent amount, and it really is significantly smaller gain than
• 28:37
  Speaker 6: what we've seen for AT and T and Tea Mobile.
• 28:41
  Speaker 6: So I think it just goes to show that, you know,
• 28:44
  Speaker 6: the market might be underestimating Verizon's ability to you know,
• 28:49
  Speaker 6: continue to grow in a consolidating wireless market and also
• 28:54
  Speaker 6: pay a dividend that is a lot more attractive than
• 28:58
  Speaker 6: what AT and T even hasn't clearly even more attractive
• 29:01
  Speaker 6: than bond yields which have been falling lately.
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: What is the dividend on Verizon these days?
• 29:07
  Speaker 6: At last check, it was about six point seven percent,
• 29:10
  Speaker 6: So that's a very very strong dividend that would make
• 29:14
  Speaker 6: it probably the leader and the so called dogs of
• 29:17
  Speaker 6: the day, the highest yielding dowstocks.
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: When you look at it.
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: The part that is just kind of, I guess, confusing,
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: but also interesting to me on one level is look,
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: if you sit here and look at the long term
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: chart of Verizon, the stock is at the same place
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: it was at nineteen ninety eight right now. Obviously you've
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: collected the dividends over that time.
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: You know, arguably this has.
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: Been a time where there's been a lot of excitement
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: about expansion in telecoms, whether you know, moving people into
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: cell phones first, then to data plans, then you know,
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: five G and things like that. If Verizon stock has
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: been so stagnant over this twenty five year period, for
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: someone you know who looks at Verizon as longer term hold,
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: what are some thoughts as to how the next twenty
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: five years could be different given all the excitement and
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: theory about telecom for the last couple decades.
• 30:09
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean that's a great question. I mean, make
• 30:11
  Speaker 6: a mistake. I mean, the telecom business is by no
• 30:14
  Speaker 6: means the Magnificent seven. You're not going to get Nvidia
• 30:18
  Speaker 6: type levels of growth from Verizon or AT and tier
• 30:23
  Speaker 6: Team Mobile. But I think the good news is that
• 30:26
  Speaker 6: Verizon has stable and steady growth, which should help it
• 30:31
  Speaker 6: if the economy inevitably slows down. You know, we're talking
• 30:35
  Speaker 6: about the soft landing for twenty twenty five, but cycles
• 30:39
  Speaker 6: don't go on forever. There's eventually going to be another recession.
• 30:43
  Speaker 6: And I think, you know, Verizon investors can really appreciate
• 30:49
  Speaker 6: that strong yield. And again, this is now pretty much
• 30:53
  Speaker 6: an oligopoly, even if you're throwing cable companies like Comcasts
• 30:57
  Speaker 6: into the mix. Verizon as a very very strong market
• 31:03
  Speaker 6: share position in the converged telecom world. And that even
• 31:07
  Speaker 6: includes the old fiber of the home you know business
• 31:11
  Speaker 6: as well, you know, kind of traditional landlines aren't going away.
• 31:15
  Speaker 6: Entirely in Verizons making a deal to by Frontier Communications,
• 31:21
  Speaker 6: you know, which a deal that could close in early
• 31:23
  Speaker 6: twenty twenty six that could boost growth as well.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: Paul, Did anything ever come out of Verizon's acquisitions of
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: Aol and Yahoo when they combined them into OATH, I
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: think was the name of it.
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: Is that still around? Is that doing anything at this point?
• 31:38
  Speaker 6: I mean not for Verizon. I mean that is in
• 31:42
  Speaker 6: the same way that AT and T I think made
• 31:45
  Speaker 6: a bit of miscalculation with owning both content and the
• 31:51
  Speaker 6: distribution side, to the chagrin of all my former colleagues
• 31:56
  Speaker 6: at CNN when we were in the media was part
• 31:58
  Speaker 6: of AT and T. I think Verizon definitely realized that
• 32:03
  Speaker 6: Oath was, you know, probably a bit of a miscalculation.
• 32:07
  Speaker 6: So they don't have that, you know, Aol Yahoo business anymore.
• 32:12
  Speaker 6: That's you know, private equity owned at this point, I'm
• 32:16
  Speaker 6: trying to remember who it was, if it was Apollo
• 32:18
  Speaker 6: that you know bought it or you know, but they're
• 32:22
  Speaker 6: out of that. Yeah, they sold that in twenty twenty
• 32:24
  Speaker 6: one to Apollo Global Management, So that's not Horizon Media
• 32:28
  Speaker 6: is no longer a part of the story, is which
• 32:31
  Speaker 6: I think investors are happy about.
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: Sure, is is there anything exciting that they're cooking up
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: as is six G on the horizon, Like what what's
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: next from them?
• 32:39
  Speaker 6: Yeah? Yeah, I mean inevitably, I mean we we all
• 32:42
  Speaker 6: know that in the same way that you know, anyone
• 32:45
  Speaker 6: who's been around long enough to remember when it was
• 32:47
  Speaker 6: three G and then it became four G and five G. Inevitably,
• 32:51
  Speaker 6: there will be faster you know networks. But you know
• 32:55
  Speaker 6: that's a double edged sword. Once we get to that point,
• 32:59
  Speaker 6: you're going to have to have Verizon as well as
• 33:01
  Speaker 6: AT and T and T Mobile spend aggressively on network buildouts.
• 33:07
  Speaker 6: I think right now we're still hopefully at the stage
• 33:10
  Speaker 6: for investors where most of the five G investments have
• 33:15
  Speaker 6: already been made and deployed, and now it's a matter
• 33:18
  Speaker 6: of reaping the benefits of them, you know, potentially with
• 33:22
  Speaker 6: you know, lower churn. Customers are hopefully happy with the
• 33:25
  Speaker 6: services they have and you know, adding more subscriptions, you know,
• 33:30
  Speaker 6: to the monthly pie. You know, you know, that's something
• 33:34
  Speaker 6: that I think Verizon as well as AT and T
• 33:36
  Speaker 6: and T Mobile investors are counting on for the next
• 33:39
  Speaker 6: few years. I mean, six G inevitably will happen, but
• 33:41
  Speaker 6: I think you know we're not there yet.
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: How many g's is enough? Paul?
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: Oh?
• 33:48
  Speaker 6: I mean I hope to live long enough that we
• 33:52
  Speaker 6: wind up in the double digit g's. I'm not so sure.
• 33:56
  Speaker 6: I count on that I fell alive when ten G
• 33:59
  Speaker 6: whatever that.
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: Is, who was it?
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: One of the one of the telecoms came out with
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: a t G that they had to like retract because
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: of marketing purposes.
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: I think I forget who it was, but.
• 34:09
  Speaker 6: Yeah, blankings, I don't want to identify anyone and accused
• 34:15
  Speaker 6: them of a false advertising, but I do vaguely remember
• 34:19
  Speaker 6: that there was a a false claim of sort of
• 34:23
  Speaker 6: you know, ludicrous speeds to quote space palls.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: Fantastic, Paul. We appreciate you joining us. Have a great
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: weekend and we'll catch up soon.
• 34:32
  Speaker 6: Thanks a lot. I have a go on, guys.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: It's Paul Amonica from Baron's talking about very zultan elso
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: known as Verizon.
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: It appears that it was Exfinity by the way, Sure
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: why not? Yeah? Yeah, it's fine. What else you got?
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: Uh?
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: I would like to go to Weimo because I am
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: a new Waimo convert and if they could just figure
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: out how to drive in snowy, icy, rainy one way
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: Street Boston.
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: I'd be all over them eighty six. Yeah, WEIMO.
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: The self driving car unit of Alphabet is expanding to Miami,
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: which seems like another area that so long it's not
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: in the middle of a hurricane, would be pretty easy
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: for them to navigate. So seeing some success both in
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: San Francisco and Phoenix, I believe are the only two
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: areas they currently operate, and adding a third one in
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: the United States by twenty twenty six are their plans.
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is exciting to me in terms of what
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: they're they're doing here. Again, it's a slow and deliberate rollout,
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: but it also again you think about all the data
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: that they have and all of the rides they're actually undertaking.
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: I think they're now up to doing about a million
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: rides a month. The idea that Tesla's going to come
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: in and suddenly have every car able to do this nationwide,
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: it's laughable.
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: It just doesn't pass the sniff test.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: One other thing that I'm just confused by all of
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: the vehicles are Jaguars. Just don't really understand that one.
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: Strange partnership it is, you know, you'd figure.
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: Something a little bit cheaper would make more sense there.
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: But nonetheless, they're all Jaguars, Right, how about a Honda
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: Ford or right with Akia, I don't know.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: There's plenty to choose from, like, take your pick, but
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: h makes you wonder what percentage of Jaguars sales are
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: going just to.
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: A lot of them.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break here for the entire weekend.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: Hope you all have a great one. We're gonna see
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: you back here on Monday, kicking off new week on
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: Financial Exchange