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Best Bets NFL Week 6 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast vented by Bet three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. We
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: are rolling right now, folks. I am Chad Milman, chief
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. Today is our week
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: six Thursday NFL episode. This is the episode where we
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: get feedback from the wise guys who listen to the
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: show with our sharp calls, where we make our survivor pick,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: build our money line, underdog round Robin. We will give
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: at our Foxholes Bet, our big Balls bet of the week,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: and we're going to arrow down our picks for the
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: free to join Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Football Pick Them contest. As our old pal Colin Cowhert
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: likes to say, there's a sea of money out there.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Because there's a sea of money out there.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: You want to follow along with our official bets. You
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: can show them out on the contest website Favorites dot
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Actionnetwork dot com when we lock them in before kickoff
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: on Sunday. If you prefer using the award winning Action app,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: you can also track all the bets. Simon and I
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: lock in by following two accounts, the Phaves five and
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: the Favorites Podcast. Now I mentioned him, Let's bring in
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, MI compadre, my BFF, professional
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in, Hello John, Dude.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Lines are moving, opinions are changing. What's a wise guy
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: to do with a week like this?
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: Is the fun weeks? It's just like last week. There's
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: just a lot of opinions, a lot of guys projecting
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: teams out and hopefully, like last week, those guys are
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: going to be wrong and we'll be right Chad.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: bet three sixty five. Bet three six five doesn't do
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: you ordinary. It believes that every sport should be epic
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: every touchdown, every game, every point, every play, from the
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: moments that are legendary to the ones that fly under
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: the radar. See for yourself when you sign up today
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: with Code Action and you'll get three hundred and sixty
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: five dollars in bonus bets when you bet just one dollar. Whatever,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: this sport, whatever the moment, is never ordinary. At Bet
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one and older and
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. Eighteen
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: and older in Kentucky. If you were someone you now
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: has a gambling problem that wants help, call one eight
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: conditions apply. Week six is approaching. We're seeing opportunities all
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: over the board. Let's not dilly dally. It's time. Four sharcalls.
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain rain telephone range. Somebody
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: say it.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Maybe want to do.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: In It looks like Chad was right about a game.
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: Chad Millman got something right and a game a game.
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: I was just like, this guy's being another Homer taking
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: his bears. But I wouldn't Chad take his bears. But
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: apparently that's a good bet. I guess I got to
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: put it in the contest. I know Chad's gonna love it.
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: I know a couple of their pros. I love it,
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: but I just it's hard for me to get there. Yeah,
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: I'm still trying to get there. I just think the
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: vikings just are the play. But the bears in this situation,
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: apparently there might be bad weather, some wind in this game.
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: Like that that caters to a team that has one
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: of the best running quarterbacks you've ever seen in football.
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I got a lot of calls about this game,
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: and I'm just I was just shocked. Where it's like,
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: you know, it felt like a good Bilow spot of
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: this Vikings team. But not only do the numbers back
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: up that this is a good spot to back the Bears,
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: but we've kind of seen that in these kind of
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: games where it's really badly windy. You know, you to
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: the dog usually, and especially if that dog has a
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: good running game. And I don't even think you guys
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: have a great running game the Bears. But the threat
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: of fields if you're if you're telling telling me that
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: he's going to run more than passing this game. I mean,
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: it's crazy to say, but that is a bonus for him.
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: Where it's like if they can make an offense where
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: it's just one read to DJ or pull it down
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: a run. I love that Bears offense because even watching
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: that DJ film from last week, he's just he's so good.
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: There's no excuse for fields not to get him the ball.
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: So Chad, Chad nailed it. He was on on it
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: with the pros he was all over the Bears. I
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: didn't see it. I bet the Vikings bought out of
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: my position. I have a decent amount now in the Bears,
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: hoping it gets back to three. That'd be great for
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: me and Check because he maybe it'd be three and
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: a half in the contest, but have no issue putting
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: the two and a half in the contest as well.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: So it's funny you say this, you know. I listened
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: to Stucky and Raybaon on the Sunday six pack. You
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: can catch it live on YouTube on Wednesdays or listening
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: to the Action Network pot on on Thursday, and Raybon
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: is all over the Vikings. And this morning when I
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: was I was doing my pregame research for a pod.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: I listened to Raybon talk about the Vikings and look,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: you have me convinced. I bought out in my Seattle position.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: I was on Seattle plus three, bought out of it
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: because of the way you've broken down Burrow. And I
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: listened to Stucky talk about how much he loved the
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Bengals too. I'm like, I might be on the wrong
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: side of this. I don't love the feeling I'm getting,
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: but I listened to Raymon talk about the Vikings, and
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: then there wasn't one moment in that in that breakdown
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: that he had where I thought to myself, I got
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: this wrong. I have felt the whole time like I
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: almost bought out of it. And then I'm like, I
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: don't think I'm going to buy out of it. Maybe
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: if the line keeps moving, goes down to two one
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: and a half, maybe I'll buy out of it. But no,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: I to hear this what else?
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm shocked. I really, I really think I'm with Chris.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: I thought that was gonna a great spot for Minnesota,
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: a nice bounce back game against a team that you know,
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: win in my twenty points. If it's a veteran team,
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: not a big deal. When it's a young team like
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: the Bears, it's like, all right, it's a nice spot
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: to fade these guys. But I'm trying to factor in
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: what the weather is going to be like and just
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: what I'm hearing from all the pros. The next game,
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: a game we talked about, hopefully people listened where it
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: was three Tampa and we told people to wait, hope
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: you can get the three and a half. No shock
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: to anyone, the three and a half is popped out,
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: so that's gonna be the biggest proverset shows game of
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: the week most likely. The pros are all over it.
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: One more game, well, I guess there's two more the Jets,
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: which is another game we're going to talk about the pros.
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: All of the Jets, the number has moved against them,
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: so obviously some smart money's coming on the Eagles here
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: and it's moved up to seven now from six and
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: a half. So definitely another interesting game this week of
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: a lot of opinions, a lot of people on one side,
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: a lot of people. I mean, it's there are really
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: split games, like I love the same this week, I
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: know some really sharp groups. I love Houston, I really
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: liked Me and Chatt talked earlier in the week. I
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: really like the Commanders, a lot of pros like Atlanta.
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: So it's just like last week where you're kind of
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: hitting these points in the season where there's just gonna
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: be guys split, Like people that project out of different teams,
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: they're gonna have a higher grade on them than other people.
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: So I know in the early weeks it was kind
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: of like simple, like everyone was on the same side.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: You're not gonna really have that like for the Bears game. Yes,
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: all the pros are on the Bears. It seems like
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: Joe Public is coming on Minnesota again. We've been touched
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: on that. We're probably gonna talk about that forty nine
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: Ers game. I know some really smart, big money guys
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: who came in heavy on the forty nine ers when
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: I was at six and me and Chat talked about
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: it like if you could have got the five and
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: a half, I was like, you should grab it because
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: it's just gonna keep going up. Now it's at seven
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: and I don't If it's Watson, this is gonna be
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: one of the easiest bets in my life. But it's
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: not looking like it's gonna be Watson. And if he
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: does play, we're betting on a guy who has a
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: practice in two weeks. So yeah, definitely a scary spot
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: there with Cleveland where the public every now and then
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: gets a free one, and it's starting to look like
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: that forty nine Ers team. If they do play PJ
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: Walker the backup against the forty nine ers defense man,
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: that looks like a pretty good bet if you had
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: taken the forty nine ers. So yeah, for sharp calls
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: this week, not shocking. Guys love the Bears, guys love
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: the Jets, the guys love We didn't even talk about
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: the Chargers, which the bet I gave out earlier in
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: the week. And we didn't even talk about the Patriots,
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: which is another team that Chad was all over. I
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: think I got the three and a half yesterday, a
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: couple of books. It's back down to three, but another game.
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: I absolutely hate and hate to take it, but me
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: and Chad are probably going to end up on this
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: Patriots team. After talking to a lot of guys.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Well, you know what's interesting, it's fun to hear you
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: get the feedback from the wise guys. Because I was
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: doing when I was going through our notes from Tuesday
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: and prepping for the show today, I take it very seriously.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: I do a lot of work in advance of the
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Sunday show, Tuesday show and Thursday show cut an arrow down.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Our games. Got to get to our foxhol we got
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: to get to our Survivor, we got to get to
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: the money line, underdog parlay, we got to get to
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: the big balls first up. He didn't mention it any
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: sharp calls, but we liked it on Sunday night, even
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: when we realized it. We didn't realize it was in London. Tennessee.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: We liked it at four and a half. It's been
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: stuck at four all week. I don't have a strong
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: opinion that the game is in London because I like
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: the matchup. Like, Mike Rabel is a dog. Whether he's
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: on the road or at home or somewhere else, it
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: is still going to be a dog, and so he's
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: an all timer. It's a Mike Rabel podcast. You bet
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Mike Rabel when he's a dog, and you bet against
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh win their favorites. My biggest
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: concern right now, Simon, this is a massive public dog.
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I hate it. I didn't get this number
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: when we saw it Sunday night, and it still doesn't
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: make sense. But I know some guys who've taken positions
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: on the Ravens and they're just thinking themselves. You know,
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: if Lamartin have all those drops last week, they blow
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: out Pittsburgh, And if they blow out Pittsburgh, this line
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: is probably a little higher. Like the public probably would
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: have bet this up, and they like it that everyone's
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: on Tennessee and they're kind of on an Island here
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: on this Ravens team, But I don't trust that. I just
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: wouldn't put a lot of money on a game that's
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: in London. There's just so many variables here. And yeah,
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: I'll take the points. Like Chad said it, this feels
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: like the chalkiest dog I'll take all year. But I'm
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: catching a lot of points with Rabel. And you know,
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: if Lamar comes out a little slow and they don't
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: drive the field and they're not leading a half or
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: whatever it is, if the passing game just isn't working,
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: which is the biggest weakness of Tennessee, Like you can
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: throw the ball against Tennessee, and that's what this new
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: offense wants to do with Lamar and the Ravens. If
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: he's connected on the passes, chat were cooked. Like if
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: this guy is putting the ball downfield, we're done. This
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: BET's dead. If not, if Rabel does what he wants
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: to do, which is make this game sloppy and pull
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: the Ravens down and make them drive the field long drives,
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: I could easily see them covering this number. So thankfully
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: we have to puss in the contest. But yeah, I'll
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: be on the public dog of the week. I'll take
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: the Titans here at plus four and a half.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to be on the Titans. I agree
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: with you. I do not want to put this in
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: the contest at all, Like this is a fun bet
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: to make. I'm going to enjoy watching it on Sunday morning.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: I do not want to have contest contest, you know,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: ambitions on this game in any way. But the next
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: game Indianapolis at Jacksonville. So this number opened at five
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: and a half, opened at five and a half. We
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: didn't know who the quarterback was going to be. Even
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: so we still bet Indianapolis because we're confident in Gardner Minshew,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: and we're confident in sort of the Colts as a
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: team versus the Jags as a team right now. So
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: here's a note from Brandon Anderson. Eleven times in NFL
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: history a team is returned home from Europe without a
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: bye week. Every one of those teams was tied or
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: trailing at some point in the fourth quarter of the
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: following week. So Jacksonville already was a team that we
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: didn't love. Now we're getting a team we.
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: Do like, Why don't you credit credit to Evan? Evan
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: gave us that stat last week.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: I think he got I think he got it from
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson. I'm doing the recap pod and because Evan
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: put it in the script as from Brandon Anderson.
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: That's a nice guy there.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he is a nice guy. He doesn't know much
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: about zoom or where you need to be audio and video,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: but he's a nice guy when it comes to crediting people.
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: So yeah, we talked about that, that that kind of
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: trend on Tuesday. It's like you're playing, you're fading the
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: team as a favorite. Now coming home after two weeks
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: in London, and I know you've experienced I'm sure you have, Chad,
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: when you go to England you come back, it feels
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: like it takes like weeks to get back on the
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: time like that. That's a real thing. So yeah, like
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: it's just that it's just a lot to do. Like
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: you're in England for two weeks. Now you're coming back,
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: you're feeling good, you're the Jaguars you just went to
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: and oh in England now you're coming back or dealing
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: with all your family stuff. Everyone's like you're getting back
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: into your rhythm of life back here, and then you
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: get dropped right into a divisional game against a team
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: that they're hungry, Like the Colts are just a hungry
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: team right now. So another game where I hate it
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: because it's like the squarest bed, like everyone is going
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: to come in on the Colts. I don't know why
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: they wouldn't. Maybe the Minshew thing does scare them off.
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: And you know, Trevor Lawrence, but really well in England.
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: But how do you not take this big number against
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: a team coming back from London, like skipping their bye week.
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: It's just we have the numbers that back it up.
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: These games usually are close in the fourth quarter when
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: teams come back, it's just they're going to be sloppy.
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: There's things are gonna be a little off timing. So
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: maybe I'll get there chat and get this in our
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: contest as we sit here right now. I don't know
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: if it's one of my favorite five all.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Right, I don't know either. I think there's a couple
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: of really ugly games that could be though.
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Like there's some ugly games. I just love this
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: week and it.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Makes me it's kind of like what we talked about
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: the other day. Remember we talked about the psychology of betters,
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: where we are less comfortable betting on a team we
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: know is great as a huge favorite this week, i e.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: The Bills and the Dolphins against respectively, the Giants at
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: fourteen for the Bills and thirteen and a half against
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: the Panthers for the Dolphins. Then we are betting the
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: bad teams, right And so here's a perfect example. New
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: England has lost its last two games by a combined
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: total of like sixty six points. The worst two Bill
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: Belichick losses ever have been the past two weeks. I've
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: never been more convinced than right now is the tame
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: to take the time to take the New England Patriots.
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: Well, you shouldn't. You shouldn't be this confident. I'm telling
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: you that much. Mac Jones and his last eleven starts
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: as a dog own eleven ats chat.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's terrible, huck. He likes to say,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: it's catching a falling knife. Are we getting the Are
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: we getting the Patriots at the absolute bottom of the market.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: And my take on this is a massive coaching advantage
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: right Like, there's not even a question. The Raiders are
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: prone to turning the ball over, which plays to the
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: strength of the Patriots. The Patriots. They have actually played
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: really hard teams and really good defenses. But then there's
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: the trends right from Evan Abrams credit Evan Abrams. Thank
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: you teams who scored three points or less the previous
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: week sixty percent against the spread the past twenty years
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: the following week. So that's the Patriots. Teams to lose
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: by twenty points or more of the previous week facing
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: a team that didn't sixty percent against the spread the
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: past twenty weeks. Like, there's a lot of evidence here
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: to back the Patriots. When when a team has been
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: its ugliest, I wish the number was higher. I'm hoping
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: it'll be three and a half in the contest, we
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: betted at three and a half.
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: But come on, Yeah, it's just a fear that they're broken. Man.
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: Like the crazest thing about the Patriots, they easily could
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: have started this year three and oh with a window
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: over the Eagles and a win over Miami and then
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: the Jets, like it could have started the year three
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: and oh and the whole everything would have been so
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: different from them this year. But it doesn't work that way.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: Mac Jones is not clutch. The kid turns up all
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: over at the worst times. He makes horrible reads. He's
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: starting to see ghosts, which is like gotta be the
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: scariest part if you're if you're a fan of him,
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: where it's like he's not even making reads anymore. Now,
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: he's just throwing. He's before the snap even happens. He
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: knows he's gonna wear the ball. So if the guy
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: has triple coverage, Mac Jones throws right into it. He
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: doesn't read the rest of the field. So I hate
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: this bet. It's like I said, it's just like the
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh bet where I hated that Pittsburgh bet all week
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: last week and it worked. Chad's right, we just have
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: to play the number. The Raiders are not a well
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: coached team. I mean, they're one of my biggest bets
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: for their underwind total and nothing changed about that. Like
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: that that Packers game. Did did they win it? Or
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: did Jordan Love give them the game? Like that? That's
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: one of those games where it's like if they lost
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: to the Packers, which they probably should have, twenty to seventeen,
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: whatever that number would ended at. What's this number? Chat?
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Is it?
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: Plus two is plus one for this Patriots team, So
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: you're exactly right where it's like we're getting great value,
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: especially three and a half, that's amazing value for this
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: Patriots team. But man, have they just totally quit like
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: that that loss last week? If we don't see life
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: this week, Chad, it's gonna be brutal because it's gonna
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: be like every week we'll be like, well, this is
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: another bi low spot. It's like, I don't know, I
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: have no idea what the lowest point will be for
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: the Patriots, but it seems like this is low. It's
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: gonna get right like this, this feels like it's rock bottom.
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: So Chad's right, like we're playing these numbers, but it's
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: another game that makes me sick to my stomach this
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: week of this team's got no fight, no dog in them,
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: and we're betting on them to hopefully show up here. Yeah,
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: Evan just posted they got after this, They got Buffalo
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: Miami like they don't. If they don't win and cover
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: this game, then I get it. Their fans what they're saying.
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: It's like tank for Williams, get the number one pick
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: for the quarterback. Totally get it.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: You got to start thinking about if they don't win
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: this game and they have a horrible season. What happens
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: to Belichick? Are they starting over with a new coach,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: new organization, new quarterback next year? And I agree like
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: they will be in a position to tank Detroit at Tampa.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: So we talked about it on Sharp Calls. Tampa was
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: three and a half. We loved it at three and
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: a half. We still like it at three. This is
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: the biggest pros Joe's game of the week. You mentioned it.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: Sixty seven percent of the let me get the exactly
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on the Lions, seventy on the Bucks.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: So again, Stucky and Raybon, you know we love listening
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: to them. I know that you and Stucky and Raybon
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: and Kerner have your very special wise guy modeling sheet.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Raybon liked the Viking like the Lions here and felt
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: like we still hadn't gotten to the top of the market,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: and felt that the Bucks wins were fraudulent. I have
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: a different take on this. I'm no Raybound, but I'm
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: curious to get your thought. I just feel like Baker
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: has better weapons and is being put in a better
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: position to succeed and has the benefit of knowledge and
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: not trying to be the number one overall pick who
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: wins every game. And so I want to sell high
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: on the Lions and I want to still buy a
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: little bit low on Baker.
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the Bucks could be frauds, Like he could definitely
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: be right. We see it every year where teams have
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: great starts of the season. I think last year Panthers
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: started the year three and oh and then the completely
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: fall off a cliff And that happens every year, Like
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: teams start hot, eventually teams catch up to them and
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: they can't really do what they want to do. And no,
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: I don't. Yeah, like I get where he's coming from,
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: but I don't see that yet with Baker. Like when
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: I look at this offense with Godwin and Mike Evans,
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: it's like having those two veteran stud receivers has been
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: so huge for Baker, like having that trust to know
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: just throw it up to those guys. Like if he's
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: ever stuck Old Baker, he's either pulled down, get sacked,
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: or he tried to make a play and either turn
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: it over or you know whatever would happen. And the
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: fields over the Bucks. This year, he's not really doing
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: those stupid things, like he talked about going to the
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: Rams was one of the best things that ever happened
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: to him in his career because he said he learned
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: so much from McVeigh, and McVeigh basically told him, this
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: is what you suck at, this is why you suck,
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: this is how you can be better. And Baker said
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: he took it and ran with it, like he's really
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: worked on all of his weaknesses and he's never been
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: coached like that before. So I like Baker in this
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: spot with this number against a Detroit team that they've
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: just you know, not that they're the most public darling
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: of any team in the league, but if you're a
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: better I believe they're the best team. If you've been
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: betting them, if you've been betting on Detroit since last year,
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: they're the best team ats by far.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Like Jared Goff, Jared Goff is the most profitable well
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: quarterback against the spread the past five years.
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: So, but here's one thing. He's much much better in
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: the dome than he is outside, and this game is outside,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: and I.
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: Was gonna get to that. It's just you're betting on
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: them going outdoors and their offense not being able to
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: be as fast as you know, well, say what you
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: want about Golf. That offense has been humming this year,
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: like every game they're in, even last week, like they
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: put up forty two and didn't feel like it was hard,
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: Like it felt like that's exactly what they should have done.
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: And you know, Montgomery, I have no idea how well
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: he's gonna do against his Bucks run defense, but like
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: that's their guy, Like the Lions have found their running back.
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: He's the guy they're feeding in this matchup. I just
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: see it being a one possession game, Like it just
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: feels like it's gonna be a close battle. And for
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: a getting three and a half when this number probably
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: should be two and a half. Three, we'll take that
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: number every time. Jah. That's why I like, even when
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: we saw the Sunday night, I feel like we both
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: knew this was probably gonna be our content. So it
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: sucks we're going against Golf the like you guys just said,
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: he's the best covering quarterback in football right now. But
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: that's why you kind of got to do it. It's
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: like such a big win last week. Now they're on
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: the road playing against a team that's just scrappy, and
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: even that Eagles game, we talked about if Mike Evans
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: made a couple of catches, they would have been in
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: that game. Like, they're just a team that feels like
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: they're always gonna be in games. If things don't go
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: horribly wrong, we will be in this game. So I
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: don't have a model of predicts turnovers. I tell you
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: guys all the time, like I can't predict when these
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: quarterbacks are gonna have these meltdowns. But it's it's a
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: good number, and Matt Mitch's supposed to Mike Evans might
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: be out for this one. I didn't even hear anything
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: about that, So a big deal.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: He didn't practice yesterday, so I'm not practicing off of
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: a bye week, is something. Yeah, I'm still I'm still like,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: to me, the number makes it the right side, Like
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: what is he going to be worth against spread? Is
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: it half a point? Maybe? So that's so tough.
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: It's like he's probably worth the same. I know people
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: can't believe it's we've probably worth the same as Justin Jefferson,
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: which sounds crazy, but the line reflects that, Like, look
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: how much that vikings lign move after Justin Jefferson got
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: ruled out? Not that much? The same thing here where
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: it's like, maybe this gets us up to Fort Chad,
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: maybe this gets up This is why this is three
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: and a half. So yeah, I'll take the value in Tampa. Mean,
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: these are just one of these games, Mean, Chad, don't
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: have a choice. People like you want to bet like us.
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: This is what we do. We try to fade these
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: teams that are coming off huge wins that the market
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: is just overreacting too. So the lines already said it.
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: The lines are for real, like they're a really good team.
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: This is such a huge lutdown spot for this team
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: going on the road.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: From the YouTube chat, here's a nice stat. I love
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: our YouTube watchers and listeners because they're reacting in real
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: time with stuff that we like. NFC North has the
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: worst overall record in the NFL, but NFC North kickers
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: are a perfect seventy eight of seventy eight so far.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: All right, So we like New England, we like Tampa Bay.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: I haven't done a foxhole, we haven't done a big
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: balls Reminder, the executive decision on Tuesday was Tampa Bay
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half. The Simon says was the
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Chargers plus two and a half. So those two are
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: still out there. We're going to discuss La a little
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: bit more Seattle, since I don't know if you want
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: to spend a lot of time on this. I'm like,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: it's a pros Joe's game according to our numbers, like
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: the majority of the money coming in on Seattle, the
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: tickets on Cincinnati at two and a half. I don't know,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: I I see, I don't have a clear vision of
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: this game other than you love Joe Burrow. Is this
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: a game we want to put in our contest? I
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: don't know.
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I love Joan and I love him at that
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: number we talked on our film, Sesshon. I just think
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: Joe looks like his old self this week. He's been
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: practicing all week, no stepbacks, he hasn't reaggravated that injury.
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: Te Higgins might be back this week. I saw him
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: practicing yesterday with Chase, like they're kind of catching balls
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: together down the field. So I love this number on
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: the Bengals, Like you're telling me that Joe Burrow, whose
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: team was one and three head into last week, now
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: they're two and three. If they win this game, they'll
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: be three and three head into their bye. Like that,
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: that to me is just such a football motivator in
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: the locker room of like give it everything you got.
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: If we get the three and three and we got
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: our bye week, it's like a whole new season. If
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: you're two and four head into your bye week, Chad,
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: it feels like your season might be a little lost.
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: So I want to take Joe Burrow in this desperate
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: Bengals team like this feels like a good spot to
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: back them when this feels like everything to them, Like
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: this is this really is a statement game for them
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: that they need this one bad And yeah, of course
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: Sattle needs it too, and they're coming off a buye
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: and the vibe should be really great for them, But
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: just a bad spot for them head into this Bengals
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: team that you know they can get pressure on Gino,
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: and we've seen when Gino gets pressure, that's kind of
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: when he melts. And looking at this matchup, it's going
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: to be a shootout. Chat That's why I understand why
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: someone want to be on Sandle and take the points.
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: But if you're getting two and a half on Joe
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: Burrow at home in this kind of game, I did
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: not take it like it just feels like again it's
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: it is public, Like I'm sure the public will be
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: on the Bengals here, but it feels like a right
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: play where it's like you're getting value here just because
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: they've struggled this season. Like if he was fully healthy
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: all year and the Bengals had a winning record, number's
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: probably four, probably three and a half. So the fact
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: that it's two and a half feels a little bit
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: like the Cardinals last week, where it's like, eventually the
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: number came down so much, that's where the value was.
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: And that feels the same way this week, like the
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: numbers come down too much. Now the value to me
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: is on the Bengals. It feels four, Yeah, Chat, I
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: get there with you on Seattle. But the fact that
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: this is two and a half in a lot of books,
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: I love that number for the Bengals.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell is frantically waving his arms reminding us there
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: could be a lot of weather in Cincinnati. Weather it
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: is gonna potentially wreak some havoc. Yes, ideal can be
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: could be bad for Kansas City and Denver. Tonight could
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: be windy and rainy, and Cincinnati windy and rainey. In Chicago,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be an interesting totals Week two. All right,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: you've convinced me on Cincinnati. It's why I bought out
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: of the bet.
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: I mean, if that's true, if you guys like the
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: under it's forty five right now, so if that, if
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: that's true, they got Yeah, if they got bad weather coming,
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: I would grab because it'll keep dropping. I'm assuming by
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: game time it will.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: All right, we talked about the Jets. We talked about Philadelphia.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Big money is coming on Philly. You said it in
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: the Wise Guy in the Sharp calls. Uh, it's moved
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: the number to seven. But I'm with you, like seven
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: feels too big for the Jets with this defense to
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: be home underdogs. It feels awful to me.
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's another bet that we both hate. We
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: both won't be shocked and we lose it, but it's
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: a bet we will always, always will make like we're
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: getting a huge number.
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: Well, we haven't discussed Foxholer big balls, and we've talked
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: about Tampa Bay and New England, so like, what are
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: we waiting for?
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: I did it then far away.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: This feels like a foxhole to me.
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, now this feels like a foxhole, you know me,
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: Regardless of what's going on.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: I'm a foxhole guy.
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: I'm a foxhole guy.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: Jets plus seven is our foxhole. We're in the foxhold, baby.
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: I hate it. It's making me sick. I'm trying to
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: find a way to get on this Eagles team. I
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: just couldn't get there. Like I understood why the guys
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: took the six and six and a half on the Eagles, Like, yes,
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: you got the value, beat the number, and now it's
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: up to seven. I don't know, Chad. It feels like
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: an inflated line, like this number has moved too much.
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: Out of what people receive is Zack Wilson's not that good,
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: which I agree with. I don't think he played great
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: last week. But the little things I'm taking away from
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: seeing him is he's making throws on third down. He
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: just wasn't making three weeks ago, and now he is making.
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: It seems like he is confidence every week that's growing.
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: So once again, it's scary as hell been on these
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: terrible quarterbacks, but we got up play the numbers. And
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: I know it's crazy to say, but like this is
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: gonna be in our money line around Robin like this
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: is just an upset, an upset game. So the Eagles,
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: they look like they look like a team that we
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: all assume will be playing the forty nine Ers in
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: the conference championship game. They have a lot of losses
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: coming along the way. That's just how football is. We
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: joke all the time. There's only one team in my
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: lifetime that was perfect, like that was truly perfect. That
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: was that Patriots team with Rainy Moss. So we just
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: teams lose. That's just how it is, people, and that's
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: my job trying to find the losses. So this one
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: here with the Eagles just feels like it's going to
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: be a loss. Like on the road, we know Hurts
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: is a different quarterback on the road, evenough this year
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: he's been great on the road, right, I think he's
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: covered every game so far on the road. Yeah, it
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: seems like a nice spot to fade this Eagles team
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: that the hype is trying to hit peak right now,
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: like that that I told you this is one of
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: those games I talk to people that everyone you know
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: right now as the forty nine Ers and their teasers
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: moneyline parlays with the Eagles and our moneylne parlays and
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: in their teasers like this is a huge week for
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: the public. They got all these these six point favorites.
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: They think that are way better than these He's underdogs,
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: So me and you will take that extra point of
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: value chat and grab the Jets here plus seven.
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: I don't hate it as much as I hated betting
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: like the Jets as big dogs against the Chiefs. To
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: be honest, I like, I love this. I love this
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Eagles team We've talked about. They have a feel like
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: of confidence and competence like the Patriots did, great talent
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: being put in great positions, so they will win games
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: just based on that that they have no business winning.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: But they're still figuring things out and like they're figuring
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: it out of the fly, and this is one of
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: the better defenses they faced.
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: So the Eagles are twenty eighth in red zone efficiency
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: this year. They were number three at this point last
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: year in red zone efficiency. So we talked all the
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: time that the losing their OC there's been no bigger
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: hit to their team on offense than in the red
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: zone from last year to this year. So I'm right
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: there with you, Chad, like they're any incredibly good team.
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: They have tons of talent. There's little things that we're
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: we're seeing here that gives us a little bit of
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: hope taking the Jets here in this number. It's just
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: the Eagles aren't as good as people are perceiving as
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: they were last year.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: Foxhel Jets plus seven. Well, you mentioned that the Wise
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: guys were coming in on Atlanta, but you liked Washington
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: the other day. Is yeah, like do we want to
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: say a lot about this right now?
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: No, but just don't be shocked if it's one of
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: our five. Like me and Chad, I always have these
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: things where I wake up and like I've loved the
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: team all week and I'm just like, come on, let
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: me put them in. And this this feels like that
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: where it's like I bet it, I love them. I've
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: teased the Washington number up to seven, and it's it's
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: you know, I'm just I'm just taking two teams here
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: that there's no there's really no real difference between them,
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: Like they're basically the same teams this year, and like
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: I graded them out as such home field advantages and
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: what it used to be this line should be closer
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: to one one and a half. You're getting a free
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: point here, So I'm gonna take that value on Washington.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Uh, the other game that I thought could have been
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: our Foxhall And to me, it's similar to Washington and
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is New Orleans and Houston. New Orleans is a
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: short road favorite at Houston. You and I both like
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: New Orleans when we talked about it on Tuesday. This
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: is another pros Joe's game. Public loves the Texans. Pros
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: love the Saints right now. I see it's at one
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: and a half. I actually saw some ones. It's possible
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: the better number. Could this be a late breaking contest entry.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's another again, another game. I just absolutely love
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: this week the Saints. I believe they had the NFL
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: record eight straight road games without giving up twenty or
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: more points. Going for number nine here against an offense
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: that Chad said it like Ritter played incredibly well last week,
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: had seven points at halftime, Like this is just an
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: offense that they just struggle a lot of things. And
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: I put that on the quarterback here. So this this
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: bet here is really about regression. Like I talked last week,
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: CJ is going to throw picks, He's going to turn
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: the ball, he's going to do stupid stuff. He had
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: two of the worst drops I've seen all year for
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: Atlanta defense, like literally through one to one defender right
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: in the bread basket, like they had his hands up,
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: hit him in the face. The next one, it was
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: when he put one downfield and the guy should have
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: picked and he didn't, So he is putting the ball
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: up to be turned over. Now Here. We have a
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: Saints team that they don't make those drops. I mean,
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: you saw last week the Honey Badger had that pick
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: six on Mac. I think he's up to thirty picks
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: now Tyron Matthews, Like these are guys that do catch
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: the ball when it's throwing their way. And this Saints
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: team we talked about this is our identity, Like their
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: identity is this defense. The defense especially I want to
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: believe in Derek Carr and the offense. It really is
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: on the defense. Like if they get stops, they've turned
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: over CJ. This game was snowball, Like it's a rookie
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: quarterback and a rookie head coach. These are the kind
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: of games they should lose and have letdown games. So
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: it's weird that I've seen the number move down, like
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: Chad just said, I've seen I thought this would go
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: up to two and a half three, it's gone the
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: other way. So that means money is coming out in Houston here,
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: but doesn't change my view of it. It's the same
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: thing last week with the Saints in the Patriots, Like
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: people are like, aren't you worried that the Saints number
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: is moving against you guys so much? No, it's this
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: is how it is, like pros on lease coin flip games,
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: pros will be on both sides, like it all depends
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: on what your model makes this number. So to me,
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: if I make this minus two and a half for
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: the Saints, I love the value on the Saints. I'm
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: getting now a point and a half of value on
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: the Saints. So it's another game that this is tough
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: to take. Chad like watching CJ's tape. This kid's incredible,
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: especially that last drive last week. But this Saints defense
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: is so good they should be putting this kid into
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: fits like they're different coveragers, they're different schemes are gonna
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: throw them. I love this matchup so much for the
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: Saints defense.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: It sounds like as you're talking about it, ay, I
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: want to make it my biggest bet of the week,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: B Jesus B. I definitely want to put it into
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: the contest.
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: All right, Yeah I can. I definitely don't want to
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: make my biggest bet of the week, but I'm definitely
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: in on making an art contract.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're taught, you You're expressing love for this
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: more than any other game we talked about.
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: Really well, I do love it. Maybe I'm waking up
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: a little now it's five thirty. Maybe I'm finally woking up,
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: but yeah, I just I love this defense so much.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: On the same seam, we have not made a big
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: balls better of the week yet, and I don't know. Okay,
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: all right, well let's talk about Dallas. Let's talk about
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: Dallas at the Chargers, which was the Simon says at
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: two and a half. I think that number has moved
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: down to two, if I'm not mistaken.
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's fluctuating two and a half. Two.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: There's two and a half's out there still, so uh,
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know that I want to wait until Monday.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: I feel like the games we've talked about, there are games.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: I think there are five games on Sunday that we
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: like a little bit more than Monday.
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, that's fair.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I just do you love this game?
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: I don't. I don't know about love, but I do
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: really like it. Like we're past talking stages. Yeah, we're
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: I might introduce her to my mom, but I don't
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: know if I love her yet. But it's a good number.
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: It's like you're whatever you want to say about the
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: Chargers team. I do think Kellen Moore is coming now
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: and made that offense better, Like they're pushing the ball downfield.
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: On the flip side, it looks like Dallas offense is
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: regressed under McCarthy, Like Dak great skill set, pushing the
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: ball downfield, connecting with guys downfield. It's totally gone. Like
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: he's neuter that he wants him to be a quick reach,
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: short dump kind of guy. It doesn't look like that's
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: working in Dallas. And I saw some report that McCarthy's
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: sleeping in the office is all week and the guys
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: haven't left the offices and they're all locked in. What
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: do you think every coaching staff does every week? Like
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: I hate when they post those kind of stories. It's
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: like even when guys win, Like I saw a clip
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: the other day of whatever whatever coach it was, maybe
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: it was Belichick talking about it where it's like they're
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: asking if he sleeps in the office, and he's just like,
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: you know, in his mumbling voice, like you bring work
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: on with you, Like these guys are all working NonStop.
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: So I get where people are like, aren't you scared
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: of the Cowboys in a bounce back spot? Their coaches
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: sleeping in the office, like all this stuff. I'm honestly not,
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: Like I just look at this Chargers offense and it's like,
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: even if we were down fourteen in this game chat,
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: I still wouldn't have lost hope on the Chargers man
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: to come back. Like Herbert, he's that guy and we've
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: seen it time and time again where if he got
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: the right coaching and then still confidence and push the
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: ball downfield, they're going to be a great offense. So
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: last week, the Cowboys went all in on stopping the run.
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: Like if you go back and watch the game plan,
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: it worked, right, they really did for the most.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: Don Perty is now seven to one to win the MVP.
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: And that's my point where it's like if they're going
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: to do the same thing, or they're going to go
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: all in and try to take something away from Herbert
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: and stifling this past offense. I don't think they have
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: the guys to do it like that. Dig's injury was
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: a big deal that took away one of the best
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: corners on the football when the best turnover corners on
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: all of football. So say what you want about this
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: Chargers team. I get it where people are like it
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: feels like you're buying high this team. I think we're not.
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: Like I got this game at a pick again plus
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: two and a half on our Chargers team, So Chad's right,
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: like this might not be in our contest, but no
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: way in here. I'm gonna be on the Chargers all week.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: You know what I hate as a member of the
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: sports media, and what I hated even more when I
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: was overseeing a sports broad sports media empire, the lazy
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: narratives that the media picks up on coaches are sleeping
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: in their office, they're so dedicated. Dak Prescott is going
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: into this Niners game as a revenge spot, like yeah, Ezekiel,
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: oh yeah, is like I saw this report before the Patriots.
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: Count is gonna help Dallas read the forty nine Ers offense.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: Come on, like it's so fucking stupid and lazy and fascile.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: It's just it's just idiocy. It's not looking for a
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: better storyline. It's honestly astonishing. All right, all right, you
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: conviss me. This might be in there now. We got
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: like ten games that might be in there, but we
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: have not gotten too the big balls bet of the
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: week and I put in the I put in the
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: rundown for our show. Uh. There were three games that
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: we wanted to talk that we haven't talked about. Carolina
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: plus thirteen and a half at Miami Giants, plus fourteen
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: at Buffalo, Cleveland plus seven against the Niners. I think
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: that number is starting to get to a point where
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: you gotta consider it. So is it any one of
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: those three games that you're thinking about? Yes, Chad, is
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: it Cleveland plus seven?
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: It is Cleveland plus seven? Big balls?
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Simon, I feel like you should take me home
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: to meet your mom because I feel like we are
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: in mind meld our big balls better than we care.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: I'm so excited. I'm so excited because you know, I
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: bet the Browns plus five and a half and I
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: didn't buy out of it, and because I just kept
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: feeling like I'm not convinced, like this is this is
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for the Niners. When you said about
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: it being a scheduled loss resonated with me. And this
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: defense is just too good. This is going to be
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: a very hard game for San Francisco to win. Big fuck.
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: I love that and the Browns at plus.
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: Seven definition of a trap. And we talk all the
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: time like not that I'm the greatest at spotting these things,
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: but I'm getting pretty damn good at it. And when
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: I get other pros that come in and tell me
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: it's exact same thing they saw, Yeah, it makes you
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: feel great. And then you get the numbers that back
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: it up, which it's all about. I know. I want
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: to be like, oh it really does matter what Watson?
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: Of course it does. Would I rather there Watson out there?
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: Then PJ. Yes, PJ was in the XFL a couple
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: of years ago. Like this is just we're in a
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: different world here. Watson. Say what you want about him.
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: I feel like he's been better this year, Like every
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: game if like he was getting a little better. That's
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: what sucks so much about that injury, where it's like
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: you kind of saw the old glimmer of old Watson there.
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: But the biggest thing here is Schwartz. Schwartz dee against
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: Shanahan in his career as a head coach a DC.
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: He's eight and three straight up against Shanahan's offense. So
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: that means that Shannan was an offensive coordinator when he
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: was a head coach. He's he's three to eight straight
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: up against Schwartz. And it's that technique that Schwarts run
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: the wide nine. It's really good against the Shanahan running scheme.
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: So if you look about how this defense, Schwartz's defense
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: is done against McVeigh, how they've done against the forty
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: nine ers, how they've done against McDaniels down in Miami.
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: Like these guys are run the old Shanahan running scheme,
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: which is thirty years old now, I mean going way
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: back to those early Bronco days, whereas it maybe he
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: might be almost forty years now. This run scheme, it's
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: really dated. Like there's certain guys like Jim Schwartz where
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: they can they can have their defensive scheme beat this, right,
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: He's got the players to beat this defense. So another
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: game that we talked, whether you can be all over
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: that under as well if you want, if you're scared
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: off by this number, but this is such a big
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: number and the public is all over it, Chad, like
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: I hate it because it's PJ. That's that's the only thing
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: I hate about this, Where it's like, if this was Watson,
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: this would have been one of my biggest bets of
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: the year, Like this was a scheduled loss, and the
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: public is so fucking stupid, Like when that number was
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: three on Sunday, I mean you joked about it, where
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: it's like I'm taking this number just because you know
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: the fourty hours might win this, this number might blow up.
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: The number has moved so much now and I agree
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: that it moved because Watson and he might be out,
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: And that's a six point move or seven point move,
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: like that's how much he's worth. The Cleveland and we
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: could walk into one of the worst bets of our
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: lives where we're taking a backup QB against probably the
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: best defense of football right now, this forty Iris team.
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: But you have to trust Jim Sports in this defense,
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: Like this is such a good spot to fraid Brock
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: Purdy on the road in bad weather in this forty
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: nine Ers team against a Browns team that no one
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: believes in, Like I'm going through the books right now,
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: and different books have it ninety five percent of the bets,
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: ninety six percent of the tickets on the forty nine
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: ers team here. Yes, so hated. People hate this bet
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: because we don't know what's gonna happen with Watson. But
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: you got to take these points, Like if he gets clear,
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: this number drops back down to what chat I talked about.
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: This drops down back to five, four and a half
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: most likely. So maybe we'll get a bad number here
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: at seven. I don't think we will. At worst it
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: gets up seven and a half by game time. Eight maybe,
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: but we can just buy those get those points as
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: well once it goes up. So grabbing the seven right now,
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: just in case Watson does practice today this number starps
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: drop And it's just we kind of knew Monday night
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: this was going to be one of our bets. As
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: a week is going along, hare and I get more
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: numbers and I get more people call me about it.
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: We have to be all over this Cleveland number of people.
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: It's just this is such a big number in a
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: game that is such a letdown spot for this forty
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: nine Ers team.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: I love our YouTube watchers and listeners, but sixty eight
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: percent of the people in the chat voted for the
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: Niners at minus seven. That just locked it in for
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: us and the contest Browns plus seven silent. Well, here's
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: what's interesting. I feel well, I feel like big Balls
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: better the week Cleveland Browns plus seven. I'm what does
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: it say about us that I just fucking love that.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: If I had, if I had to say our top
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: five right now, I'd probably go Browns plus seven, Jets
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: plus seven, New Orleans minus one and a half, Chargers
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: plus two, and then I think it would be between
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: Tampa and Cincy.
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what I was gonna say. I put Tampa
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: in there, and the one waiting to put in would
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: be the Chargers because you're right, like, I hate waiting
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: to that's the worst part of this contest, like for
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: four and oh, I can't stand waiting a whole nother
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: day to find out we're gonna be five and oh.
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: So I'm right there with you, Chad, like I'd put
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: the Chargers on the outside looking in right now, and
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: i'd put Bucks and Cinci over, especially since we're gonna
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: like we'll do me and Chad like a lock in
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: our picks after the show. Here if we go into
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: the app right now and that since he's two and
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: a half, we're gonna have to lock that one in.
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: But if they're minus three and a half, maybe we
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: don't put them in.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: All right, Simon, Can you name the fastest growing ticketing
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: app in the United States?
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: Game Time?
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: You bet, brother, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: game Time for two reasons. One, they sponsored their show.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: Number two, I actually use game Time to buy tickets.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: They've got amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets,
• 45:22
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• 45:25
  Speaker 1: actually going to open game Time right now from my
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: house here in Connecticut. And guess what, we love the
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: Jets this weekend, Simon, if you and I did not
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: have a show on Sunday, we would be going to
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: the Jets game for less than eighty bucks. Great tickets.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app,
• 45:44
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• 45:45
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• 45:49
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• 45:52
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• 45:55
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• 45:59
  Speaker 1: lowes price guaranteed. Before we get to our money Line
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: Underdog Round Robin parlay, reminder that the Week six contest.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: The Week six contest tiebreaker is total rushing yards. On
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: Monday Night Football Dunk dun Du Action Network predictive analyst
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: Billy Ward writes a weekly article about tie breaking strategy,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: and a link to that article can be found in
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: the episodes description. If you want a leg up in
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: the contest, good luck, all right? Our money Line Underdog
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: Round Robin. My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: mot dog. Let me let me throw some ideas at you. Tampa, Sure, Washington, Okay, Bears,
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: Bears chargers.
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: They're a little too too small.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: All right, Tampa, Washington, Bears, Colts.
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: Get them in there, and then we got we go.
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: Let's go one big dog here, either either the Browns
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: or the Jets. Which one do you like to win? Outright?
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Chad j Ets, Jets?
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: All right, let's do it, Jets.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: All right? Money Line Underdog Round Robin, Tampa, Washington, Chicago, Indy,
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: New York Jets. Simon, I want you, I want you
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: to make Little Caesars, which is the official pizza sponsor
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: of the NFL part of your game day? Does eating
• 47:32
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  Speaker 3: Every time?
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: Order online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour before
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: NFL games and get ready for some football and fun.
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesar's pizza or pick the toppings
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: you crave. Simon, what do you think about this new
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: motto I invented? If you order extra toppings, the fun
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: is never stopping.
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: That's a fun rhyme.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: However, you order your pizza, you win. And speaking of winning,
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: everyone scores with convenient delivery or our in store Pizzapportal
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: pick up. So grab some friends and enjoy a few
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: slices during the game. All Right, it's time for the
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: Survivor Pool pick of the week. We're going week six.
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: I've been saving them for this and we don't have
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: to take them, but like I told people, this is
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: going off my Survivor. So we have a couple of
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: teams crossed out and it's starting to get to that
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: point now where it's like, are we trying to be
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: really smart? Should we take the rams so we're saving
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: the bills? Or do you should you just take the Bills,
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: like that's yeah, Okay.
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: When I was going through it, I feel like we've
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: taken the Dolphins, and when I was sort of doing
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: I felt like we haven't taken the Bills, And this
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: is the spot.
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, last week I did a contest where I did
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: the Dolphins. I did another one where I did the Lions.
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: Obviously that that was a no sweat for either of them.
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I got the Bills left. So we want
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: to do Bills one and then our second pick would
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: be Rams too. Yeah, because if you're doing game theory,
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: that's a nice that's a nice play there, the Rams,
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: Like when else are you going to use the Rams?
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: But I am with Chad where it's like peace of mind,
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: no sweat bills.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: So you know, we got a couple of minutes here.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell hasn't yelled at us yet to hurry, So
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: I know. We got Evan coming up to talk about
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: some some stats and trends, but we did not talk
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: about the Dolphins and the and the Giants as like
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: or the Panthers and the Giants. Are we betting those games?
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: It feels like those are the Cardinals against the Cowboys games.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: A little bit different because they're on the road. But like,
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: are we catching a fallen knife to paraphrase and and
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: steal directly from Stuckey.
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I just can't get there. If the Daniel Jones
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: thing is a big deal to me. The guy has
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: a bad neck injury. Yeah, you can say, well it's
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: Tyrod Taylor is gonna come in. He's just as good
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: as him. I don't know. I don't know how how
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: true that statement is. So they have no offensive line
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: there in the Giants. Even if the Bill's defense is
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: totally banged up, I don't think it's gonna matter on
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: that one. And then the Panthers one. I told you
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: if it's Andy Dalton, I am all in on the Panthers.
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: They keep putting Bryce Shung out there and he can't
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: read a defense. Even if Miami is when the worst
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: defenses in football there, they're still a lot better than
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: most teams. So looking at this game, I want to
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: get there. Chat. I know some pros who's coming out Carolina.
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: I still think you're getting a good number technically on Miami.
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: So I hate it. Like again, another game won't be
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: in our contest, but I'll be on a big favorite again.
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: Like last week with Miami All Right.
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorites, podcast is presented by
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  Speaker 1: Virginia or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms
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  Speaker 1: and conditions and restrictions apply. Before we get out of here,
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: we are joined by Action Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: He is the engine behind the great stats and nuggets
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: you hear on this show and across all of our network.
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, you get the last word. We're finished talking.
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: What's up fellas?
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: Uh So today's topic is buyer Beware, which is something
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: that I feel like we talk about a lot in
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: the show. We're always betting bad and here we go. So,
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: speaking of Panthers and Giants, they are two of three
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: teams also the Broncos, who don't have an ATS win
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: yet this season. So this is the first time since
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: twenty thirteen we have three teams or more without an
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: ATS win in the six game or later. So don't
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: see this frequently where these teams aren't covering this late
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: into this season, when winless ATS teams are listed as
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: dogs two eighteen, one, seventy nine fifty six percent last
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: twenty years, when those teams are failing to cover by
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: ten plus points per game ninety seven, sixty five and
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: three sixty percent. So, unfortunately, that would be me telling
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: you to bet the Broncos and the Panthers this week.
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: Well I did bet the Broncos. It's Thursday, so bet
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: the Broncos and.
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: Here we go. Let's flip and it's up to eleven now, Chad, Yeah,
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: oh my.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: God, they spinal tapped it. They turned it up to eleven.
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: Let's flip it.
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: So six teams are covering by five points per game
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: or more on average this season. Buffalo, Detroit, Houston, Miami,
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, and Tampa in the six game or later.
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: Those types of teams who are covering by that margin
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: eighty games under five hundred against the spread forty six percent.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: We like that, Chad when those teams are a favorite
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: forty four percent. So that's Detroit, San Francisco, Miami, and Buffalo.
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: So again, Fyer beware. And finally, I like to kind
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: of stray away from side to talk a little bit.
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: I want to talk about the betting market for a
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: second on my last one here. So in games of
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: season where the total fell from the opening the closing line,
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: so fifty five and a half to fifty five would
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: be an example, and that is actually a lot of
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: games this week. The under is thirty one and eighteen
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: this season. So the market has done an incredible job
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: at predicting unders, especially with line movement. So since twenty
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: twenty one, unders are two to eight, one fifty seven
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: and one fifty seven percent when the total has dropped
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: between the opening and closing lines. Now that is covering
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: the under on the last lowest line as well, So
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: any number above that, that win percentage of fifty per
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: seven percent just gets higher. So nine percent ROI on
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: those games. And here's just the final statute encompass it.
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: It's pretty crazy. So in the last twenty three regular
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: season weeks dating back to last year, there have only
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: been three where there are more overs than unders for
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: full game totals. Overs are three, thirteen and seven in
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: those twenty three weeks. So we've seen a whole lot
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: of unders lately.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: By the way, we talk about the luck rankings all
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: the time, and we didn't talk about them a lot
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: today because there's not a lot of games that are
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: sort of fitting in the luck ranking from a side's
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: point of view. But the luck unders this week Denver,
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: Kansas City Thursday night. A lot of people won't hear
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: this in time for that, But Minnesota Chicago, which Simon
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: you talked about early on in the sharp call, So
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: time to jump on that under from Minnesota chicag At
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: the very least, thank you Evan Abrams for all that excellent,
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: excellent data and trends to recap our Foxhole New York
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: Jets plus seven our big balls Cleveland plus seven our
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: exec Decision, Tampa Bay plus three our Simon says, the
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: La Chargers plus two and a half our Round Robin,
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: money Line, Underdog Parlay, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago, Indie, New
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: York Jets. If we had to pick five for the
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: phaves five right now, which Simon and I are going
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: to discuss as soon as the show is over, the
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: faves five for now probably the New York Jets, New
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: Orleans Saints, Cleveland, Browns, Tampa and Sincy, with the Chargers
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: on the outside looking in, But we will try to
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: nail that down a little bit after Before we sign off.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: Reminder that Simon and I will be back with our
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: Week six recap episode Lava and the Action Work YouTube
• 56:00
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• 56:05
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• 56:23
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