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WRAPPING 2024 MEDIA · The Media Odyssey

• ESHAP Okay, so let's start with welcome to the media odyssey. That is Maron Rochette. Marion Ranchet Welcome to the Media Odyssey. This is Evan Shapiro. ESHAP There we go. We both said each other's name correctly, I think. Did I say your name correctly? Marion Ranchet We did. Yeah, me better than you, but that's okay. ESHAP Well, that's pretty much the theme of this show. you met us. I am Evan Shapiro. As Marion said, I talk about the media, I write about the media from the United States perspective for the most part. Marion. Marion Ranchet Yeah. Marion Ranchet I'm French living in Amsterdam and I give a European tech to the media industry. ESHAP and we first met at MIP TV in Cannes, is that correct? Marion Ranchet Yeah, 18 months ago. ESHAP And we started talking about the industry and how we each approach it. And we've gotten together a number of times since then. And then I begged you to do this podcast. The last time we were in Cannes, actually I think the third time we were in Cannes together, I begged you on a rooftop full of wine myself to do this podcast. Marion Ranchet Yeah, you had to. Marion Ranchet Yeah, you did sunshine, rosé. was typical business doing in Cannes. ESHAP It is actually, it is very typical and this podcast is the outcome. So what do you think this podcast is about? Marion Ranchet So this podcast is, I would say, number one, bridging Europe and US in a way, spending good time with you, brainstorming on things. I think it is valuable for folks to engage with us in a different way. We write a lot. Hopefully people have time to read us, but I love the idea of us bringing them more value. ESHAP Well, let's start there. Let's start there. You have a really good newsletter called Streaming Made Easy. Marion Ranchet Yeah, on sub stack. ESHAP And I'm an avid reader and you've had it for how long? Marion Ranchet It's been two years. This is two years in December. Yeah. ESHAP How are you liking writing a Substack newsletter? Marion Ranchet I love it, but it is a lot of work. mean, week in, week out, but I've been consistent. I've never missed a week. yeah, yeah, pretty much no. Or, you know, maybe I'm going to miss the next few weeks. I think I need some, some time off. But how about yours? Because, you know, one of the reasons that I chose Substack is that I could see that folks like you were there. I think that was, you know, a big draw. ESHAP That's impressive. In two years, you've never missed a wee? ESHAP You Marion Ranchet And we actually recommend one another, which I think is fantastic and it's a great way to collaborate. ESHAP The big way newsletters find audiences is being recommended by other newsletters, yeah. Yeah, so I started my newsletter, Media War and Peace, about two years ago. And actually, almost three years ago. And I think I've written close to 300 pieces. So I don't know that I've never missed a week, especially in the last couple of years I've actually been in and out of the hospital. Marion Ranchet Yeah, yeah, a hundred percent. Marion Ranchet Yeah, I think that's what you said. ESHAP There was times where I think maybe I didn't publish, but I do get almost every week. And I love doing it. you know, it was what transformed me from an executive to a creator in the creator economy, which you and I have discussed a lot of times. And I just adore it. It's my favored form of expression is the written word. So I love writing it as well. So go ahead. Marion Ranchet Yeah. And one thing on that is we could have stopped at LinkedIn, right? The reason why we went to the newsletter is to actually deepen, you know, the relation. There's so many things you can say in 200, 300 words, right? So I think the reason why you did this, I did it as well was to go deeper on topics from the industry, but also to have a closer relationship with the audience because let's be honest on LinkedIn we're kind of very much. under the thumb of, you know, LinkedIn, the algorithm, the limitation of the platform, right? ESHAP Yeah, I mean, I think for me, the newsletter was about, to your point, being able to dig deeper, but also I have these weird infographics I tend to make with my writing, and you can only put one, and I don't love the how the tiles on LinkedIn, so it was actually pretty much of a creative choice. Actually, to be blunt, I wrote a book proposal, and it got turned down by everybody, and then I turned that into the first five posts of my newsletter. and it kind of took off from there, which was a lot of fun. And to be blunt, better than writing a book because I can change it in case something goes wrong, which you can't do with a book. Marion Ranchet You Yeah, and aside from changing, it's more instant. You have that one-on-one relationship. We see folks commenting, whether that's LinkedIn or the newsletter, and I think that's incredibly valuable. ESHAP Yeah, so I begged you to do this podcast because I thought there was a different way for us to go about what we did, most notably the way we talk about the media when we get together. And so you have your point of view. I have my point of view for various different reasons. And I think we come to it not necessarily with differences in maybe outcomes that we would expect, but completely different points of view of reference. you know, We can use the recent Disco Brothers spin out of cable as an example where you took it from the sky perspective. Marion Ranchet Yeah, true. I did not even cover the US. ESHAP And I looked at it from, right, that's exactly right. And I looked at it from the perspective of how the NBA basically forced this decision. So today we're gonna look at all of 2004, I'm sorry, start that over. Today we're gonna talk about all of 2024 from the perspective of your point of view and my point of view. Can I try that one more time? So today, we're gonna look at all of 2024. We're gonna do wrapped 2024 for our first episode. I'm gonna look at it from the US point of view or from my point of view actually, because I actually have an interesting way into it. And you're gonna look at it from your distinctly European view, yeah? Marion Ranchet Yeah, a hundred percent, I'm game. Let's get started. ESHAP Are we doing this through the lens of our predictions from last year? That's what it seemed to me, the gauntlet that you threw down in the teaser that we made was that we were gonna look at how we did. I am prepared to do that. I'm also prepared with a list of topics that I thought were the biggest stories. So however you wanna go about it, I'm gonna come out the victor of this episode of the podcast. Marion Ranchet No, so we can go either way. The reason why I was suggesting, you know, let's look back a little is that, you know, one might argue that it's easy to give predictions and then you'll never look back. Right. So I quite like the idea of, you know, quickly looking at judgment day. Having said that, I'm sure that there's things that happened this year that ESHAP That's right. That's right. Marion Ranchet Maybe we did not foresee or not to that extent. And so I think we can kind of mix it up a little. ESHAP No. ESHAP Okay, great. Well, why don't we start? We agreed we would ping pong, that we would go back and forth. Why don't you start with a topic or a prediction that was from 2024 that you'd like to discuss and either look at our mutual performance on or discuss as a topic, as a big influential topic of 2024. Marion Ranchet So one I had was a free streaming for broadcasters. One of my five predictions, I only made five, was to say that these guys would, know, heavily invest in kind of beefing up their AVOD and fast hubs, right? The idea being that they make that move from being, you know, a live TV channel, you know, which has a bit of an extension hub. No, it's... a hub of its own. So some people will go on live TV and in those hubs, some people will only go in those hubs. And so I will give, you know, I will pat myself on this one because it did happen. Like most of the European broadcasters have built more and more. ESHAP Yeah, so give us some examples. Yeah, so for those who aren't privy to the European market, give us some examples of moves that were made this year. Marion Ranchet Yeah, so one move in France, M6 actually did a deal with Pluto. They brought in, I would say 10 to 15 fast channel from these guys within their hub. They took some of their content and put those as fast channels on Pluto TV France. Then in Germany, JOIN, which is Proziben, the commercial broadcaster. They've been at this for many years. They have over 60, channels, they have a very deep AVOD catalog. If you look at the UK market, ITVX has been doing this for the last two years as well. It's very much this master hub where you can watch all the content that you want, whether that was live or not. ESHAP Well, on ITV in particular, if you talk about Avod and Fast, think sometimes we talk exclusively about Fast and Fast platforms that also have Avod or some other apps that live on connected televisions. But I think you have to include the biggest app on television, which is YouTube. And so that is an Avod product. There is also a subscription product, that is mostly an AVOD product, the largest AVOD product on the face of the earth, one of the largest advertising platforms on the face of the earth. And I think if you include that, ITV just made a huge announcement, so I think your prediction even came truer, made a huge announcement that they're gonna put a lot of content on YouTube starting next year, is that right? Marion Ranchet Yeah, 100%. So I think to your point, it's not so much about just making sure everyone is coming to them. It's making sure that their content is going to everyone everywhere where people, you know, actually hang out in space and time watching content. ESHAP Yeah, and that and by the way, your prediction about the M6 is of the world came true, but it also came true here. Sling has a major fast platform on the front end of their paid service and DirecTV now has a big fast service, think 100 channels on the front end of their paid product as well. So yeah, that was a that was a very good prediction. You should pat yourself on the back. That came very, very true. And by the way, a really good example of you, looked at the European market and and Marion Ranchet Okay, cool. I'll take this one. ESHAP Most of the players that you talked about are in the commercial broadcasting or commercial distribution business. Even ITV, which is a public broadcaster, they are an ad seller and they needed the additional inventory to sell. So it did translate to this side of the Atlantic as well. So it's one of those things you can identify in one and it can apply to both. So good job. Marion Ranchet What's interesting about the example you gave is that I'm a big believer in seeing free streaming within pay TV environments. what, yeah, what you've done, what you've seen this year in the U S we're starting to see it. It's not changing as fast as it should, in my opinion. But yeah, you're seeing more pay TV platforms bringing in AVOD and fast content. The idea is, know, bring more value to folks to keep them in. ESHAP All right, well, that leads me to a sneak peek of our next episode, which is we're going to be giving predictions for 2025. And one of my predictions for 2025 is the melding of all of these models. In the moments to get up to the screen, AVOD fast, SVOD with ads, all of that stuff is going to meld much more into singular choices of bundles like what DirectTV is doing and what M6 is doing. So that's a sneak peek. That's next episode. This is our 2024. wrapped episode. big, I'm going to give a prediction since you gave a prediction. One of my biggest predictions of the year was that a large tech company will buy one of the prominent programming groups. And I think there are many out there right now who will say, well, that didn't come true. None of the big tech companies brought and bought any of the traditional media companies. And I'm going to say, aha, you're incorrect. Marion Ranchet Mm. ESHAP If you don't think that Oracle now owns Paramount, you're not paying attention. You are not paying attention. So I'm sure David Ellison is a very bright boy, but he is an Epo baby and wouldn't own Paramount, but for the fortune that his father built at Oracle. And the idea here is to update and transform Paramount using technology. And so perhaps it isn't a direct ownership. Marion Ranchet knew it. Yeah. ESHAP But through the board and through the influence of money, they are going to control that company. I think there will be some out there who say it's a stretch, but I think it's an absolute first step to what I think will be many deals, especially given the new shape of regulatory perspective in Washington over the next four years, at least. I don't think you're going to see much blocking of big tech. when they want to make purchases like Amazon did of MGM, or let's say Apple wants to buy Disco Brothers, Warner Brothers Discovery. I don't think you'll see a regulatory standoff there the way you might have in previous administrations. So I do think the Oracle purchase of Paramount makes my prediction true. I'll take all challengers. I'm wondering what you think. Marion Ranchet No, absolutely. think one of the first statements when the purchase was announced, he actually used that word, right? That he was looking to take this company and make it become a tech company. So maybe we can talk about, you know, that's going to be a discussion maybe for next year, but it will be interesting to see if that's possible. Can you transform? ESHAP transform. Marion Ranchet a US studio into a technology company just because you have the money to do that and because in the background you have a technology company. It's a bit of a question mark. ESHAP Disney did try to do that with buying MLBam tech and being one of the lead investors in Hulu and then eventually owning Hulu. very much wanted to do that. They have not succeeded in transforming into a tech company. think Netflix has succeeded in changing from a tech company into a content company more successfully than anybody has gone the other Marion Ranchet Yeah. Yeah. 100 % in lines. ESHAP So anyway, think this also, the reason I pointed out in particular is I think it portends more acquisitions and more &E in particular in the entertainment world, &A, sorry, in the &E world in 2025. It's a prediction that I'll make. But also I think the big tech investment in big media is I think just starting. Marion Ranchet Do we want to do another one we predicted that pan out or not? And then we move on to kind of the big stories of the year for both of us. Okay, cool. So. ESHAP Let's go that. another prediction you made that either did or did not come true. Marion Ranchet I'm gonna choose one that did not come through completely. Yeah, I'm brave, I'm brave. I'm not trying to win this. So unlike someone, yeah, exactly, exactly. So no, I had made the prediction that Samsung with Samsung TV Plus would be investing big money in contents this year. ESHAP brave of you, good for you. ESHAP How un-American are you? Marion Ranchet And in particular, I had said live events, sports or something, know, a bit more, you know, reality TV, etc. I was right to some extent because I've seen them, you know, license third party content very much, know, premium and fresh TV shows, etc. and movies. They've made a few deals to bring that live feel to it. I think they... bought a few weeks ago the rights to a Korean, a K-Content awards event. But yeah, they haven't made big moves. And the move I had in my head was something a la Netflix where they would be live streaming something sports related that is big. So I would say I'm half wrong. I think I'll keep this one for next year because we just heard about Roku buying the X Games. to build a fast channel, bring APOT content to their 85 million plus monthly active users. yeah, I'll keep this one for next year. ESHAP And by the way, that was a sports franchise that was looking for home for a minute. think Roku has done an excellent job, particularly in sports, in creating a platform where you can find a lot of sports very quickly, even if it's not on a service that they run. So they can get you quickly from point A to point B. I think that's one of the reasons why they have so many users in the US is it's very easy to navigate as a consumer. especially if you're not necessarily all that tech savvy. But I also think, I I was part of a deal, and I said this on LinkedIn, so this is not breaking any news, to help bring Letterman to Samsung exclusively for a couple of years. And that was a good deal, I think, from both parties. And they have a deal with Conan in place as well. So they have been making moves in exclusive content. I think, you know, I think they're a team without breaking any privacy. think they're team to watch with regards to that moving forward. think they will, they will continue to make smart moves around investments in programming that enhance the brand. You know, the largest maker of televisions on the face of the earth, the largest maker of phones, I believe on the face of the earth as well. And so being able to program across both of those platforms, they also program on refrigerators. You can watch the Letterman channel. on a refrigerator. So I think your prediction was partly right. I would give it more than you might think, but also I think it will continue to be true on a moving forward basis. Marion Ranchet Yeah. Honestly, I think these guys, they need to convince, know, stakeholders internally because you've said it, it's the biggest TV manufacturer in the world. Manufacturer. It's very much a hardware led business. And these moves, this is the new Samsung, right? Being, you know, software first, putting content on top. I think that's a tricky conversation. ESHAP Well, that, and then that gets to the larger conversation between Roku and Samsung, which is we talked about Roku as a programmer, and then we talked about Samsung as a programmer, but Roku's OS is a substantially larger platform than Samsung's. And many of the Samsung TVs in the US have a Roku operating system operating on them because of an external device. And so I think increasingly the owner of the platform is gonna have substantially more say Not just in what gets watched, I think you're gonna have to have all content there, but in the exploitation, most notably the advertising exploitation on these platforms is gonna be increasingly in the hands of the OS. And that's why you see Trade Desk starting an operating system. That's why Samsung has designs on moving ties in beyond Samsung devices. That's why Google is in the operating system business. That's why Amazon puts so much money and time and effort into Fire. because that's where the riches are going to be held in the next generation of television. Marion Ranchet Cool, so let's go to yours. What's your other prediction? ESHAP so this is another prediction. So I was going to give one, another one where I was right, but I've chosen, I've chosen to choose one where I was wrong, which is I said there was going to be a lot more and a in this year than, than actually happened. I mean, I think the, the, the Oracle purchase of Paramount is the big one. the, mean, here at the end of the year, OMG buying, IPG is a, a big. Marion Ranchet Yeah, well, of course. Marion Ranchet Okay. ESHAP huge one that kind of saves this prediction to a certain extent. don't think I took into account the election year-ness of it all when I made that prediction. It just felt like there was a lot of money that wanted to get in action. And I think it's still sitting there. So I do think now, especially since there is going to be a looser regulatory atmosphere in the United States, and I think globally, for many different reasons, but mostly for political reasons. I think you're going to see a tremendous amount more of and a action in and E. and, I think, you know, in particular, think you're going to see technology companies by, entertainment companies. I wouldn't be surprised if Netflix who is now at an all time high valuation looks to buy something in gaming or in music or in, or a piece of, a large piece of IP that comes with a subscriber base. but I do think you'll see more action. next year. So I'm delaying my prediction again. Marion Ranchet Cool. Gaming? Netflix? I don't know, right? Haven't they shut down a studio and laid off a few folks? ESHAP They shut down the studio, but they hired a big new head of gaming. And I think that's why they shut it down. That is his influence there. And it'll be a recalibration. And yeah, think if you look at Netflix, which is now worth $400 billion, and you look at Roblox, which is worth around $20 or $30 billion and has never been profitable, that's a real nice marriage. Two different products. Marion Ranchet Okay. ESHAP One much more is a purchase as you go, which is something that Netflix has not excelled at. But the extension, brand extension, is just for its own franchises. are Stranger Things and all the other IP that they own would work out really well. Crucially though, both businesses need to amplify their advertising businesses. And I think together there's a stronger sell out in the marketplace. But that's just an example of something they could now afford because they're at the height of their valuation. that they couldn't have otherwise, I think, two years ago been able to look at. I think, interestingly enough, even though Spotify is now at its all-time high valuation, a Spotify, Netflix marriage, my goodness, it would be difficult for regulatory reasons, but far less so moving forward. So I think Netflix getting into the music business would be very, very interesting because it's one of those unbreakable subscriptions that they don't have currently. Anyway, that's one example. I do think Apple looks like a bigger buyer to me and Microsoft, they just ingested Activision. Are they interested in getting more deep into the living room? Et cetera, et cetera. Marion Ranchet Okay, we are getting close to the end. If you had to find one thing that surprised you this year out of something you did not expect, what would that be? ESHAP I honestly did not expect Spotify to have the year that they would have. I don't think they had ever been profitable for a year. I think they'll probably wind up being profitable this year for the entire year, which I think is the first time that that's ever happened. Certainly one of the first times if it's not the first time. But they've had, I think, four profitable quarters in a row now. So not in a calendar year, but in a row. they had a really bad 2022, 23, where they were firing people every couple of months. they, again, they were losing money. you know, their overhead with regards to the rights that they have to pay for music, not less so podcasting, but mostly for music. It's the more they play music, the more, the higher that cost goes. their advertising business wasn't growing that fast, but they've really grown the paid subscriber business, even from a. really high, high. I they have 600, I don't know how many they have right now, but a lot. And their churn is very, very low. Their admin's still needs to grow faster, but I'm very impressed with how that company has managed itself over the last 12 months. And I would not have expected that from that management team. Marion Ranchet 100%. Marion Ranchet Cool. So mine, yeah. No, it's okay. So, the year of France, hear me out. Because France, says the French woman, yeah. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So. ESHAP How yeah, right, I'm sorry, how about yours? What is the thing that's a pleasure? ESHAP The year of what? France? The country it's in Europe, kind of near England. Okay. Go on. Marion Ranchet This market, so it's my market. I don't live there anymore, but it's my home country. It's my market. It's one of the markets that I cover as part of my newsletter, but also my consultancy. And every time everyone's like, France, it's a black box. It's so complicated. There's a lot of that going on, which it's good business for me because I help people understand that very tricky markets. At the end of the year, ESHAP Yeah, yeah. There you go. Marion Ranchet Someone, one of my clients said, man, for the first time, I think I understand France a bit more and this is where there's the most opportunity. Not just because of me, I did do my part, but what I've seen this past year is a thriving market, very innovative. I'm going to say it out of the EU five markets. It's been the most impressive. Let me give you a few examples. We started in Jan with the TF1 Plus, which is the French broadcaster who launched, relaunched. and made the move from broadcaster to streamer they access yeah Claire Claire Bessini yeah DMD yeah ESHAP Yeah, I had the woman who runs that on Claire on stage with me at Mipcom and she's incredible and they're doing an amazing job. Yeah. And another good example of what you were saying earlier. Marion Ranchet Yeah. Yeah. Amazing. So you have that, they have over 30 million monthly, you know, active users. They use the word streamers now, which is very interesting. So I need to wrap up. Let's, cut that. ESHAP Right. ESHAP Now you can keep going. Just keep plowing forward. Marion Ranchet Yeah, it's gonna be more work for Jesse to edit. anyway, okay, number two. Yeah, exactly. Number two, have M6, the other French broadcaster did the same move, relaunched its streaming business. Canal Plus just got listed at the London Stock Exchange. It's becoming its own thing. It is one of the few stories of,pay TV businesses growing. and last but not least, we've had the Olympics. It was amazing. And I was very proud of France Télévision, which is the public service broadcaster, because I looked at their coverage and the coverage by the BBC. And okay, granted it was in Paris. So I'm sure the BBC did a great job when it was London, but the number of feeds, all the coverage. ESHAP it was Marion Ranchet All of the things that were done, you know, were, you know, mean, amazing. So. ESHAP Well, and it was a global streaming sports phenomenon in a way that, I mean, the Olympics have been building towards this and the Super Bowl has been building towards this and all major FIFA and all of them have been building towards this. But this was the one where it felt like one big product across digital and traditional television and everybody on the world got it. It really helped that it was in Paris. which is a great media city and close enough to the United States for it to kind of work out in prime time here. So it worked out really, really well. Marion Ranchet And yeah, yeah. Marion Ranchet Yeah, yeah, yeah. A hundred percent. But again, the idea of, know, at the core of this, the idea of using the city as, you know, where the event was taking place and not just in the stadium. mean, that was amazing. that was the year of France. yeah, we'll talk about predictions for 2025, but I think there's a lot more stuff coming. ESHAP Right. was a major victory, yeah. ESHAP Well, would just, I would just say, yeah, right. I think there's a lot more happening in France, although politically there's going to be a change there as well, it feels like. So, it's definitely worth watching. Marion Ranchet So what's fascinating, yeah, so what's fascinating, this happened and then from June 2024 it became a mess on the political front. I mean, you've had a tough year as well. And so, you know, the question is, yeah, this year we were a bit immune because it only happened now and I think we'll feel the effects next year. So I do have some concerns because as we speak right now, we still don't have a government. ESHAP Right. And so I think, for many different reasons, let's pull this section out, but keep it as an extra. Cause I think it'll be very interesting and we can use it for teasers and stuff. But yeah, I think the political atmosphere across the world is going to have so much influence on the media world moving forward, but especially in France and especially in the United States, over the next year, less so let's say, Britain and Germany, although Germany seems to have a lot going on there as well. So. yeah, it's going to be an interesting year that for that reason, think rather than do, what we were going to do, which is talk about CES because CS hasn't happened yet. I'm going to be at CES. Are you going to see us? Marion Ranchet No, so the thing with CES, every time I want to go, every time somehow I don't make it happen, I think there's a bit of, you know, Vegas after Christmas. Yeah. ESHAP All right, but you're not going, you're not going. Yeah, we get it. We understand why you're not going, but you don't get to talk about it then. Marion Ranchet No, I will cover it from my living room like I did this year and yeah. Okay, cool. ESHAP But I have things to plug I am going to be working with a couple of different folks there so I hope to see you there at in one way shape or form or a fashion or another this is a what you're doing at TS not looking into the future but I'm doing a couple of things you should look for me there it's all over my LinkedIn I don't want to get too specific I will say I am dropping my top 10 list predictions for 2025, the week before CES, and we will be dropping our next episode, the week of CES, towards the end of it on the ninth, and that will be our predictions for 2025, yes? We're gonna do 10 each, is that correct? Marion Ranchet Yes. Marion Ranchet Yeah. Marion Ranchet Yeah, I think so. ESHAP I think we're gonna need two episodes for that. So I think we're probably gonna stretch the top 10 into two episodes. So on the ninth and the 16th, look for our top five and then next five, or probably bottom five and then next five predictions for 2025. I thought this went well. Marion? Marion Ranchet Guys, you're going to be so happy to be working with me. I'm going to be sending you some love. ESHAP We already are. Yeah. We love working with you. I, again, I am glad that you decided to do this podcast when I begged you to do it. I, I, I thought this went really well. How did, how do you think it was? Marion Ranchet Yeah, really well. feel almost, think, you know, honestly, there's so much we could cover. It's tricky, ESHAP Yeah. We had a lot we did not cover. We have, you and I both have a lot we did not talk about this week that we could have talked about this week. So we'll save it for a future episode. we'll work it into the rest of the year, but, next week, we're gonna do a top five and then next five or first five and then second five predictions for 2025 next week on the pod and then the following week on the pod. But in the meantime, subscribe to this podcast, tell people about it, but also subscribe to your newsletter. Marion Ranchet Okay, go. ESHAP Marion, what's the name of your newsletter again? Marion Ranchet yeah, streaming made easy on Substack. How about yours? ESHAP And mine is Media War and Peace, also on Substack. Thanks for listening. We really appreciate it. And I'll see you soon. Marion Ranchet See you soon guys.