Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Interview Only w/ Fiona Hill - Trump’s Luck Finally Ran Out In Iran

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Interview Only w/ Fiona Hill - Trump’s Luck Finally Ran Out In Iran · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: This is a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that
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  Speaker 1: code well. Joining me now. Is one of arguably the
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  Speaker 1: world's most foremost experts on all things Russia, at least
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  Speaker 1: and has played that role for UH currently at a
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  Speaker 1: Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute, but served on the
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  Speaker 1: National Security Council, the specialization on Russia in the first
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  Speaker 1: Trump administration. That is Fiona Hill. And it's good to
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  Speaker 1: see you.
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  Speaker 2: It's been a while, see you too.
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  Speaker 1: Not much is going on in the world, and and
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  Speaker 1: and and what's happening. But in all serious let's start
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  Speaker 1: with sort of Russia's role with Iran, and let me
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  Speaker 1: start with before we get into sort of the current
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  Speaker 1: sort of what are they doing and all this stuff,
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  Speaker 1: how would you describe that alliance and make a comparison
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  Speaker 1: of that alliance to an alliance that the US has
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  Speaker 1: with a with a country that what's the most similar
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  Speaker 1: alliance that Russian and Iran have that you would say
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  Speaker 1: the United States mirrors.
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  Speaker 2: It's a very loose alliance, let's put it that way. So,
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  Speaker 2: you know, the United States has had so many formal
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  Speaker 2: alliances with countries, you know that it's hard to do,
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  Speaker 2: you know, kind of a really neat comparison because it's
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  Speaker 2: not a formal alliance between Russia and Iran, and there's
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  Speaker 2: all kinds of expressions of friendship and partnership, but it
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  Speaker 2: really doesn't kind of amount to, you know, very much
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  Speaker 2: beyond the declarative.
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  Speaker 1: So I think it's vendors for each other, you know,
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  Speaker 1: they just sell stuff to each other.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's I mean, one might quip that
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  Speaker 2: the way that you know, Trump has been treating some
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  Speaker 2: of the traditional US allies that might actually become more comparable,
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  Speaker 2: you know, very critical about them not seeing you know,
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  Speaker 2: kind of a sense of obligation or they're expecting them,
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  Speaker 2: you know, to do things for him, you know, VISI
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  Speaker 2: VI this war. In fact, I mean the UK comes
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  Speaker 2: you know obviously to mind. But you know, Russia and Iran,
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  Speaker 2: you have a very complex and deeply historical relationship. I
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  Speaker 2: mean going back to the Persian and Russian empires, and
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  Speaker 2: you know, they've they've clashed historically at many times. They
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  Speaker 2: have you know, territories that they've fall over, you know,
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  Speaker 2: including in the Caucasus regions they had, you know, their
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  Speaker 2: empires had you know, peoples that they're divided between them,
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  Speaker 2: and Russia had come to rely in Iran in the
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  Speaker 2: period since nineteen seventy nine, established into the theocracy as
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  Speaker 2: a kind of stabilizing force, particularly in the Muslim world,
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  Speaker 2: because Russia has had its most problems with its own
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  Speaker 2: sunny Muslim population. It has a sheer population. It's very
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  Speaker 2: small and mostly Azadi ethnic Azerdies who have coursed a
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  Speaker 2: you know, big bulk of the non Persian you know,
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  Speaker 2: ethnic groups inside of Iran itself, and of course we
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  Speaker 2: have the independent state of Azerbijan. But you know, there
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  Speaker 2: wasn't really you know, any way in which you know,
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  Speaker 2: Russia saw Iran as a particular threat within its territory
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  Speaker 2: now in the modern times, and much more as a
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  Speaker 2: kind of a like minded an enemy of my enemy,
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  Speaker 2: as my friend.
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  Speaker 1: Convenience really more than anything.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, but a bit more than that. I mean, when
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  Speaker 2: you look at tre it's not surprising to find that,
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  Speaker 2: you know, the trade is in the same kind of
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  Speaker 2: dimensions that you know, trade with Iran is with lots
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  Speaker 2: of other countries. Carpets and pistachios and you know, all
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  Speaker 2: kinds of you know, food stuffs. Russia, you know, shares
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  Speaker 2: the Caspian you know sea and you know that base
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  Speaker 2: and with Iran as well, but you know, obviously has
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  Speaker 2: its own oil and gas. But it was really that
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  Speaker 2: kind of role that Iran plays as far as Russia
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  Speaker 2: was concerted, a sort of predictable even if you know,
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  Speaker 2: complex neighbor that could help it sort of settle issues.
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  Speaker 2: And then more recently with the war in Ukraine, that
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  Speaker 2: shifted quite dramatically, with Russia tapping into Iran's development of
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  Speaker 2: the Shihi drones, which of course we're now seeing you know,
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  Speaker 2: on full display. Not just in Ukraine but now being
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  Speaker 2: used across the Gulf, and Iran provided Russia with those
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  Speaker 2: drones during the war in Ukraine, effectively became a partner
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  Speaker 2: with Russia in the war against Ukraine, helped them build
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  Speaker 2: a factory.
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  Speaker 1: And you know, you know, I'd been a bit of
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  Speaker 1: a head scratcher to me that with Trump's obsession with Iran,
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  Speaker 1: that he didn't view what they were doing with Russia
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  Speaker 1: more negatively on Russia.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it is a bit of head scratcher, isn't it.
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  Speaker 2: But I mean I think that that shows that, you know,
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  Speaker 2: Trump tends to think of things in a you know,
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  Speaker 2: pretty bilateral fashion. He thinks of his relationship with Russia
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  Speaker 2: as just that that it almost exists in a vacuum
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  Speaker 2: when with Putin, and he thinks about it as if
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  Speaker 2: it doesn't interact with everything else. And I think that
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  Speaker 2: that's part of the problem that we're now seeing in
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  Speaker 2: the Middle East, where there hasn't been you know, full
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  Speaker 2: thinking about what the second and third order consequences might
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  Speaker 2: be and how you know, kind of basically firing on
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  Speaker 2: on Iran might have all of these knock on effects
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  Speaker 2: on all of these other relationships. You can't just separate
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  Speaker 2: them all out. And many people have been trying to
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  Speaker 2: make that point, myself included for years that you know,
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  Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine had become a global conflict, I
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  Speaker 2: mean not just another war in Europe, you know, the
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  Speaker 2: third in a century, a major land war, but because
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  Speaker 2: it brought in Iran and China and North Korea in
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  Speaker 2: on support of Russia, because they all saw it as
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  Speaker 2: a proxy war with the United States and Iran most notably.
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  Speaker 1: If you're Iran, are you disappointed in what Russia and
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  Speaker 1: China have done as allies are not?
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  Speaker 2: Yes, I think you are disappointed, But at the same
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  Speaker 2: time it might be what you expect, because you know,
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  Speaker 2: you yourself are not exactly the best of our lives
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  Speaker 2: for other countries either. I mean these are all very transactional.
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  Speaker 2: I mean Iran has a very particular war view, so
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  Speaker 2: the Russia, to China, so North Korea. I mean a
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  Speaker 2: lot of their decisions are based on, you know, how
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  Speaker 2: things affect their interests. I mean they're very nakedly transactional.
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  Speaker 2: I mean this is hardly in the sort of Chinese
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  Speaker 2: and you know, Iranian in a sense of their relationshiply
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  Speaker 2: just with Russian melding of the minds. I mean, one
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  Speaker 2: is the theocracy he wants. Toll has a communist party.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, yes, these are all again ancient empires who
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  Speaker 2: kind of see it as their own right, you know,
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  Speaker 2: kind of a divine right in many respects, and certainly
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  Speaker 2: from Iran to basically drive their own civilizational perspective. I
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  Speaker 2: mean around sees itself as a civilization, not just as
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  Speaker 2: a country, which I mean I think perhaps you know,
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  Speaker 2: Trump and the people around him seem to have forgotten
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  Speaker 2: and you know, they all feel that they have, you know,
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  Speaker 2: the right to exert themselves, the right to nuclear weapons,
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  Speaker 2: you know, the right to have their own interests and
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  Speaker 2: to conduct their own foreign policy without regard to the
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  Speaker 2: United States, and you know they bind together or bound
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  Speaker 2: together then band together. I've kind of used the wrong
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  Speaker 2: kind of term there, They band together without being bound
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  Speaker 2: together as what I was trying to say, you know,
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  Speaker 2: when it comes to their own interests being affected in
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  Speaker 2: some way, and that where there's a sort of shared
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  Speaker 2: concern about interests that overlap, but it's not that they're
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  Speaker 2: bound to each other in terms of any obligations in
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  Speaker 2: any ways. So I don't think you know, the Eroons
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  Speaker 2: were really expecting the Russians to come in on their
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  Speaker 2: side here.
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  Speaker 1: Well, it's just interesting that we've when you look at
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  Speaker 1: whether it's Syria, whether it's Venezuela, whether it's Iran, throw
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  Speaker 1: it maybe Cuba, there's a lot of these sort of
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  Speaker 1: I don't know what you call them, Russian friends, you know,
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  Speaker 1: allies might be too strong of a word, but certainly
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  Speaker 1: places where and they every one of these countries also
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  Speaker 1: had good relationships with China. China has chosen not to
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  Speaker 1: really help any of these folks. Russia has a little bit.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess if I were in their shoes,
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  Speaker 1: I would let the US punch themselves out. I would
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  Speaker 1: do what was an old you know, what was called
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  Speaker 1: during the days of boxing ropodope, you know, the MOhm
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  Speaker 1: and Ali. Go ahead and puntch yourself out, George Forman,
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  Speaker 1: and then you'll get tired and I will get everything
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  Speaker 1: I want at a bargain or when you're tired and
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  Speaker 1: easier to deal with. Is that what you think China's
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  Speaker 1: up to in particular for them not really helping any
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  Speaker 1: of these countries that we've bullied around.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, that is the case. I mean I've got a
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  Speaker 2: lot of colleagues here at the Brookings Institution who you know,
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  Speaker 2: obviously work very closely on China. And you know, one
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  Speaker 2: colleague had the opportunity the medic Security Conference, you know,
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  Speaker 2: to put to a pretty senior Chinese you know, representative
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  Speaker 2: there about the case of Ukraine. And I've got other
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  Speaker 2: colleagues who have done the same and saying, look, you know,
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  Speaker 2: this obviously is detrimental to you. You had no beef with Ukraine.
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  Speaker 2: You know, why is it, you know, of any benefit
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  Speaker 2: when you had your own desires to invest in Ukraine
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  Speaker 2: over the long term and agricultural, all kinds of things.
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  Speaker 2: To see it ruined. You know, why do you want
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  Speaker 2: Russia to win in Ukraine? And you know, basically the
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  Speaker 2: Chinese interlocker has said, well, if we wanted them to win,
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  Speaker 2: they would have won, which obviously hasn't happened.
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  Speaker 1: That's an interesting what does that mean? Yeah?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean what it means is, look, we're really
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  Speaker 2: you know, not doing you know, kind of a great
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  Speaker 2: deal you know here to help them. Although that's actually
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  Speaker 2: not really true because they're giving you know, a lot
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  Speaker 2: of support in various words, although they're charging a high premium,
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  Speaker 2: which is the kind of thing Russia does too. They
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  Speaker 2: don't do you any favors without a cost. You know,
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  Speaker 2: China is helping Russia to obtain all kinds of goods
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  Speaker 2: and those kinds of you know, high technology that they
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  Speaker 2: actually need to keep the warrifor going. But they're charging
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  Speaker 2: them at premium. They're not making it easy for them.
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  Speaker 2: They're not saying how quick you know, I have these,
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  Speaker 2: but you know, they're not really exerting themselves to help
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  Speaker 2: them in any way. And you just also refer to
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  Speaker 2: that that's really kind of what Russia is doing with Iran.
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  Speaker 2: They have been sending them technology and response to the
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  Speaker 2: fact that they've got the Shahi drones and they've got
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  Speaker 2: the kind of modular manufacturing patterns and you know, helped
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  Speaker 2: the Uranians help them set up a factory to produce
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: their own They've you know, we've had reports that they've
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: given some kinds of intelligence, although we don't know exactly
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  Speaker 2: you know, what that might be. And Steve Whitcoff, you know,
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  Speaker 2: recently some all the Russians told us we didn't so
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: you know, let's not go down that puppet.
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  Speaker 1: Shouldn't take the Iranians witcough thought the Iranians were pulling
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  Speaker 1: the wool over their eyes, but the Russians always takes
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: them of their word.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean, you see, this is you know,
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  Speaker 2: part of the issue we're dealing with. Everybody deals with
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: everything in silos and stove pipes, and you know, from
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: the point of view of you know, what they see here.
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  Speaker 2: But look, it's still fair to say, getting back to
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: the point that you're making here, that both Russia and
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  Speaker 2: China are kind of watching to see how this all
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: plays out, and they think that probably you know, the
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  Speaker 2: United States will you know, do what most countries in
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  Speaker 2: the United States has done before, get itself into a
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  Speaker 2: hell of a mess in the Middle East, and that
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  Speaker 2: they can just watch and you know, see what happens next.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, yes, you know, Russia has lost the footing
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: that it had previously in Syria. This is not great,
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: you know that kind of what's happened with Iotola Hamini
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: because you know Putin was you know, quite close. There's
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: one can be close to the Itola, but hey, it's
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: the Iola Sun now, you know, And in fact, you
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: might have gotten even harder line, you know, kind of
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: version if that's even possible those I would like to.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: See a little proof of life here and the sun
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: we get to see any proof of.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: Well exactly that is that is true, but I mean that.
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  Speaker 2: But the Russians are kind of expecting that it might go.
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  Speaker 2: So the Russians and Chinese have been around a long while, right,
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  Speaker 2: and they're kind of expecting that things kind of might
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  Speaker 2: play out in a way that is detrimental to the
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: United States. You know, they've had their own experiences, particularly
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: the Russians in Afghanistan. You know, they all kind of
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: know what happens in these imperial wars, and that's exactly
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: what's happening to Russia and Ukraine. Special military operations turn
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: into quagmires. That's exactly what's happened, you know, for Russia.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: And you know, the United States they believe because the politics,
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: the domestic upheaval, all the things that you know they
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: watched are going on, you know, might find itself in
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: quite a predicament and then they might be able to
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: kind of sweep in and take advantage. So it's just
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: like you said, it's the ropodope, you know, just as
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: watch them exhaust themselves putin doesn't box, but he did
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: play judo, and you know that would be also you
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: work for your opponent over multiple tournaments to you know,
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: get themselves into trouble, your top opponent, and then you
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: know you kind of just take advantage and literally use
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: their strength against them, you know, to get them to
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: the match. So I think, you know, for now they're thinking, okay,
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: you know this well.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, it's what it looks. You know,
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  Speaker 1: if I'm the Russians, you darn right, I'm going to
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: help the Iranians because anything that bogs down the US
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: makes Ukraine's life harder.
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  Speaker 2: Absolutely right spot on. You know, So when the United
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: States was thinking about what was happening or what they
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: wanted to do in Iran, were they also think about
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: how this was all interconnected. You know, we've had a
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: debate about whether Trump had the right to you know,
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: it hasn't redeclared. What has he I mean to kind
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: of launch this assault on Iran, you know, without all
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: of the you know, other constitutional requirements that everybody's thinking about.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: But we haven't been asking what did they do in
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: terms of deliberating or the first, second, third, and fourth
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: order consequences and how everything was intertwined because so many
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: times people from the administration have said that they prefer
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: to disentangle these you know, thorny knots of problems and
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: deal with one issue at a time. But unfortunately all
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: of these things are all raveled together.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: And you I know, and he you know, this comes
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: back to the principle he hates multilateralism, right. I don't
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: know if he hates it because he can't understand it,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: or he just life is simpler for him if every
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: relationship is binary, everything is transactional, whether it's in the
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: personal or in the professional or whatever it is. But
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: he does, he he almost hates to think about the
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: interconnectivity of things. You've spent some time with him, I mean,
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: is that that the impression you got of him in
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: the first term.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, And look in the second term. You know, many
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: of the people around him have made that very explicit
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: playing it out, just as you said that it's almost
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: as if we all these issues exist in the vacuum.
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: Well they don't. And you know, when you think about
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: Iran and the kind of intelligence that the United States
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: would have, you know, collected in the past and Iran
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: and we still have some you know, great.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: Do you think it's all derivative of Israel's intel?
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: Well, I think some of it would have come from
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: our role, but all of that is also derivative, right,
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: It's not just you know, from one thread. I mean
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: the United States is part of what was the Five Eyes,
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: if that still exists in terms of a you know,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: a realistic grouping. Yeah, well, I mean the question is,
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: you know, as Canada was Canada consultant, was the UK?
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: You know, Australia, you know New Zealand. I mean they
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: might have had you know, a lot of information. Certainly
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: the Gold States would have done. But if you're only
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: maybe asking the Saudis, I mean this is obviously of
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: existential import for the Gold States, given you know their
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: proximity and you know all the interactions we see it now,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, all the damage that's been done to them,
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: just like Ukraine was of existential input for Europeans and
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: Trump was pretty lax at are basically consulting you know,
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: with them as well. So this is just part of,
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: you know, a pattern where there's this sort of feeling
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: by Trump and the people around him that you know,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: we have all the power, we have all the intellectual capacity,
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: that we need. We have all the information that we need.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: We don't have to consult with anyone else, and we
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: don't have to, inversity, take a full spectrum, comprehensive view
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: of something before we act. We can just figure out
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: as we go along.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: Were you still in the administration when he made the
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: decision to get solemony?
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: No, I was not. No, I'd left, okay, and that
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: would probably embolden them though along that.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm wondering right.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: With what happened with Maduro, because the low back that
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: people predicting never came right from.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: His A lot of people maybe maybe this time it
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: wasn't you telling him. It might have been another expert
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: letting him know, Okay, if you do this, here are
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: the potential fallouts, you know, and then none of it happens. Right,
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: He touches the hot stove and he doesn't burn his hand, Yeah, Solomony,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: And he touches it again with Maduro, and frankly, he
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: did it again in last July with the bunker buster bombs.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: Oh well, that didn't set off a wide ranging.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: The recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: That didn't say anything.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: You know, all of these because I remember all of this,
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: people would say, well, there'll be problems, and you know,
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: that's our job. We're always supposed to be prepared to
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: be the world's worst pessimists.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Right right, But that's your job. And the National Security
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Council is.
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: You know, I mean, I'm a nightmera at home. You know, hey,
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: look at that. You know this could be all in
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: my office, you know, or something like this. I'm always
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: thinking about the worst that you know, the ceiling could fall,
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: you know, and then the consequences will be the you know.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: And so for someone like Trump is like, okay, all
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: of these people, you know, these so called smart people,
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: these experts who say the experts told me this would
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: happen and it didn't. Well, the fact is that, you know,
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: those are some of the contingency You've got to bear
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: in mind, because you know, one could say from the
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: Abraham Accords, right that, you know, there wasn't the reaction
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: from the Palestinians that they thought there would be right
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: away to all of the kind of decisions about Jerusalem,
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: or you know, the the cords between Israel and you know,
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: other Gold States, and then there was OC Chapter seven,
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: you know, so one might be able to posit that
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: that was you know, one of those consequences, but you know,
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: the direct line of causality wasn't as clear, and so
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: I mean that's the kind of same thing that we
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: know we're dealing with here. You know that if the
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: immediate impact isn't felt, you know, in some cases there's
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: an immediate cause and effect. I know this it might
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: take some time to play out. I mean, look, I
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: think in many respects we're all dealing with a post
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: nine to eleven Osma bin Laden, you know, attack world,
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: because it's all those kind of knocking effects, some decisions
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: that were made in that context to go into Afghanistan
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: then to go into a rack against the back of that,
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: even though you know there wasn't any direct linkage, but
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: it's just it's shaped a whole frame for the way
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: that we thought about things. And you know that's what's
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: happening here as well.
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• 21:10
  Speaker 1: Do you buy that NBS was one of the folks
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: advocating for these for this joint strike with the Israelis that?
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: You know? There's that big Washington Post story that it
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: wasn't just Israel that was talking Trump into this, that
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: it was Saudi Arabia. And I say that because Saudi
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: Arabia has also been the least helpful in the current
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: situation too. Right, they're in this weird spot, it seems
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: like in the same spot they've always tried to fashion. Right,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: they're the protector of these important monuments and these important
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: touchsdownes of the of the of the Muslim religion, and
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: so they they haven't they haven't fought back per se.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: But do you buy that did he push that he
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: helped convince Trump?
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to think. I mean, maybe he
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: didn't dissuade him. Maybe that could be the point, right, So,
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, I know enough about the saucing for that story.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: It wasn't massively picked up in other public cations.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: It wasn't and there wasn't any And now you get
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: the sense that the Saudis are given off a hey,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: this is not what we had in mind. Yeah, I mean,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: they're not happy now for sure.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: So think about this in another context, you know, which
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: I know more about, which is the meeting between Putin
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: and She and Beijing literally on the eve of Putin's decision,
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: you know, to go in full on invasion into Ukraine.
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: You know, Putin and She basically declared this limitless partnership,
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: and you know, they have all these wonderful press conference meetings.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: The next thing, it looks like she has then given
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: the green light or even encouragement to put them to
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: go into a special multi operation. The Chinese have been
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: constantly ever since going No. Actually, you know, we kind
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: of thought something different was happening. You know, we didn't
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: really do that, which I think you know.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: About the Chinese that they didn't see that. How did
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: they not see that coming? Seemed like we saw it coming.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: Well, I think that they well exactly, which is one
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: of the reasons. I mean, so many people didn't expect
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: that Putin would do it because they could see disaster
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: brewing as a result. But the Chinese might have been
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: more persuaded, or she might have been more persuaded that
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: special military operation would be just that the kind of
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: thing that they might launch in for example, or you know,
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: or they've seen the Soviet Union, do you know, in
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: the past in Hungary or what was then Czechoslovakia. I mean,
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: those were short, sharp, bloody yes interventions, you know, to
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: whip the Hungarians and the Czechoslovaks in fifty six and
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: sixty eight into shape. And I'm sure that that's what
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Putin thought he was doing, but instead he unleashed what
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: has become, you know, the largest land war in Europe
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: since World War Two, with more casualties to Russia than
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: the Soviet Union had in the Afghanistan was twenty times
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: the casualty rate. And this is Russia, which is a
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: portion a smaller portion of what the Soviet Union was.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: Is catastrophic in so many respects. But they didn't anticipate that,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: you know, And I see and I think you know
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: that gets in too, you know, did the Saudis think?
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: And again I can't speak to it, because you know,
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: this was literally just you know, another of these you know,
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: quick blows, you know, and they wouldn't be pummeling you know, Tehran,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: you know, in the same way that you know we've
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: seen happening elsewhere in the Middle East. I mean, this
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: is you know, pretty astounding.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: Well it looks, I mean from that perspective.
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: As well as you said, you know, because I mean
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: they're the religious sites so important to his Lam. But
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: the Iolo Homony Homony was Hormony before him, a major
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: religious leader of another sect of his Lam, So you know,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: this is also pretty serious from their perspective.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: You know. Look, you as well as anybody can know
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: working for Donald Trump. So I'm not going to sit
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: here and sell sell it anymore. I think he's a
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: very hard you know, I vacillate. I think he's actually
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: very easy to read. I always joke I'd love to
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: play poker with him, because he doesn't really he sort
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: of he wears everything on his sleeve. He tells you
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: everything he's thinking.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: The cars, I'm saying, look at this, like I'll grab
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: my cars.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: I know, I know, you might as well just hold
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: his cards the other way. I think I wonder if
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: you concur with this. I know he's going to want
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: to get out of this. I just you know, he
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: knows it. It's like, however it's gone, it's not the
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: way he knows. It's bad politics. You just you can
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: reverse course on tariffs. You can't unbomb Tehran. And so,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: knowing he wants to get out, how would you help
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: him get out of this jam he's in. What would
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: that look like? Given what he's in the middle of
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: right now, It'd.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: Be very hard to help him because you know, he's
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: thrown in his lot. Also with Israel in this regard,
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: the obviously has she has got some pretty clear objectives.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: They want regime change. They make it crystal clear. The
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister's X feed is all about this.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and that makes not making it very clear that
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: they want to make sure that Iran is not a
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: threat right which.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: And under after October seventh, sort of like us after
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: nine to eleven, we're not going to let this al
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: Qaeda wherever they go. We're chasing them down. You know
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: we I can't sit here and say we wouldn't behave
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: the exact same way because oh, by the way, we did.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and look we've seen what happened in Gaza. I
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: mean they reduced the players to rubble to make sure
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: that they've you know, eliminated the threat. And you know,
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: we're trending, you know, in a direction, in a run
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: where we're going to have a Jesus yeah, I mean exactly.
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: So we're seeing here very clear what ams by Israel
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: that they're not going to be deterred. And I mean
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: because it's existential to their security. And you know Iran, Yes,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, Trump can make a case, and we can
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: all make the case, and he keeps making it all
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: the time, lots and lots of different russianals. Why you know,
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: going after I run at least, going after the Ioler
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: and after the leadership, you know, made sense. You know,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: we can we can take it at first value and
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: forty seven years of a probably festering situation. But you know,
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: beyond getting rid of the regime, neutralizing completely the nuclear
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: UH program, what is the rest of our own I
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: mean because again Trump has already said and this, this
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: was his way to try to get out of it.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: He wanted to do what you did in Venezuela. Well,
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: well that's ridiculous. You know one thing again, Venezuela is
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: not a millennium multi millennia or civilization.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: I'm not ready to call Venezuela a success. A grew
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: up in Miami, I know that community well. And if that,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: if Venezuela is not a democracy, sometimes soon they're all
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: going to turn on him on this.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: And that's the problem in Iran. I mean, we've basically
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: being He said at the very beginning that one of
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: the multiple reasons for intervention was to actually go to
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: the Iranian people, you know, across the board, the opportunity
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: to choose their own leadership and not you know, basically
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: be you know, killed en mass By, you know, a
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: regime that has become perceived widely as a legitimate. But
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: I do there's not a pathway to that. So, I
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: mean one of the words that you'll probably get out
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: of is just declared he's done in terms.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: Of well, we know, well no matter what, he declares
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: victory right like, oh, this was a massive success. And
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: you're like, but I.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: Well, what he has to do if you're going to
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: find a pathway is basically to be consulting with all
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: of the countries around that have a vested interest in
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: the immediate vicinity. You know, that includes you know, countries
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: like Pakistan and India. It's Turkey, you know, which has
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: a direct bond is actually a NATO member. You know,
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: there should be a consultation with NATO countries because you've
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: got Iranian populations in large numbers, and places like Germany,
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: also in the United Kingdom. I mean, this is going
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: to have knock on effects. It's not just you know
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: what's happening in Oman or in Saudi Arabia or Ue,
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: you know, et cetera. I mean we've also got Yemen.
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: You know, this these a kind of a prophecy is
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: he's going to have to have a regional approach to
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: this and exert some leadership. But I don't think that
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: that's what's going to happen. I mean, he's got himself
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: into a real jam here. I mean of the kind
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: of you level that the United States got itself to
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: in both Afghanistan and Iraq with a lot more consultation.
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, in fact, in the case of Iraq in
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: two thousand and three, the UK did a much better
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: job of making the case, you know, with Dodger DOSSI
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: well and the intervention, and there was there was a
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: NATO you know, backed coalition in both you know, Iraq
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: and in Afghanistan, and at least it's sort of a plan.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, look, we know we're no good at nation building,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: that's for obvious. But there's not an exit plan here.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: And of course what happed in Afghanistan when it was
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: a negotiating exit plan was pretty disastrous.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: Do you and just do you think the gutting of
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: the National Security Council has any impact on this bad
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: decision making he's done? Or is this it wouldn't have
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: mattered whether there was a fully staffed NSC still probably
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: you know, yeah, I mean.
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: In that regard, that regard, I don't think it would
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: really have mattered. I mean, there was a fully stuffed
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: and seeing what could argue there's still a fully stuffed
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: and a see if you look at the history of
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: the NSC, which is you know, super large depending on
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of what what different presidents wanted. It's
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: just it's his, it's his antagonism towards any kind of consultation,
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, apart from with who he sees his peers. Look,
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: this is an overall problem of where we are as
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: the United States right now in many other countries as well,
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: because we've created in many spects of vertical you know,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: of power, just like the Russians harves Putin and then
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: you know that's kind of not many but not but
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: everybody else in the consultative paramid here, you know, we've
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: got an apex predator, an apex president, and that's what
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: we've done in the United States, and that is completely antithetical.
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: So what the United States was supposed to be about
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: for the last two hundred and fifty years. So the
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: problem is on us. I mean, actually we all have
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: responsibility for this because you know, somehow or other we've
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: lost grip, you know.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: Of our I mean it's it's look, I can at
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: Congress pretty why.
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: But yeah, but Congress, you know, is is a major problem.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: And you know, Congress has to remember that they are
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: actually supposed to be the representative body of the United States.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: They are supposed to be their main locust of decision
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: making and power in the Constitution. You know, she's related
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: to this, and they've just completely reneged on all responsibility
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: and so they've allowed you know, so it's all of
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: the checks and balances in the system have been eroded.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: So of course, you know, I mean, look, if Trump
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: was a different person, and he might made a whole
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: different set of decisions. But you know, but but he
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: isn't right, So it was so obvious that this is,
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: you know, what is going to happen irrespectively, whether he
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: had an NSC or you know, a kind of different
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: set of cos he's concerned everyone's stuff and nobody knows anything.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: So if if this is in theory, then look, it's
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: going to bog us down. There's no quick exit, right,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: I think it. I've equated it to quicksands. Right, There's
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: just the more he fights it, the more he may
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: end up getting sucked in because of all the all
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: the regional effects, all the economic impacts, et cetera. Is
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: this a huge break for Russia in the war with Ukraine?
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Is this saying, Jake, could the timing of this been
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: any better for them?
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: Maybe? It already depends on, you know, kind of how
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: they handle it as well. I Mean, the obvious issue
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: is about oil prices.
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: But right now that's good for the right, right high.
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: But the is you know, where Russia is going to
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: get all of it soil? Like from I mean it,
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: you know, is it where is it going to be
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: shipping the oil? Because it come has to come out
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: of the Baltic you know, and you know the other
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: Europeans going to want to buy Russian oil in the middle,
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: you know, of all of this, it's a kind of
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: a long way to China, you know, from for the
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: Russian oil. I mean, they could ship it up to
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: the Arctic Ocean in theory, or they could rail it
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: out because you know they've got I mean, it's it's
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: gonna it's not that easy, to be honest, because you know,
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: they've got some shipping problems that everybody else has. You know,
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: if they can't go through the Eastern med and the
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: Sewer's canal or you know, kind of if all the
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: kind of the shipping routes, because i mean we're talking
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: a lot about you know, Russian you know, rogue shipping,
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: the shadow of fleet and all the rest of it.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: They've got to be able to get that oil out.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously, the all that they're already producing goes
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: up in value, and the Russians love that, of course,
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: because you know, the peak of Putin's power has always
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: been when all prices have got towards this one hundred
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: and fifty dollars a barrel and yes, that was really
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: affecting the revenues. The gas is more difficult for them
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: to sell as well. It's pipelined, you know, and you've
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: got gas coming through Ukraine and players like Hungary and
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: l and g you know, they're producing some in the
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: Russian Far East. You know, it's not as simple as
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: it looks. But yes, I mean there is the prospect
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: there of a windfall, and it would all kind of
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: depend on, you know, how we're looking at you know,
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: oil trading, you know, and all the rest of it.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: But it does certainly deflect well and truly away from
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: you know, all the kind of efforts to try to
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: resolve what's happening in Ukraine, because of course where was
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: most of that diplomacy taking place in the Middle East
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: U A and you know with NBS and nb Z
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: and all kinds of.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Other So does he want to end this war or not?
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: Who is that putin?
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: Trump? Yeah, Trump, I think once when you know this
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: war get.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: Trump wants because he wants to and you know, let's
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: have a normal relationship with the restaurant and the only
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: one you can't have it until the.
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: Absolutely and he's probably blown his nobel peace prize now
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: as well, you know, for for this year one but
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: one would imagine. But the I mean doesn't want to
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: end this war unless it's on his terms. So that
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: would mean, you know, the capitulation of Ukraine. He's made
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: it very.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Clear it's just never going to happen. I mean, it
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: makes it.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Unlikely now when thinks, you know, for exactly the way
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: that we phrase this question, that you might have a
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: windfall bring in more revenue, I might be able to
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: continue to keep paying contract because I mean essentially, yeah,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: this will give him. I mean, they'll hope some breathing,
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: spare some time to recovery because the economy was under
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: was under pressure, and now that pressure, you could be
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: could be relieved.
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: I think every time we think that Ukrainian morale is
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: going to suffer, it doesn't. I mean, it is. They've
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: been a tougher fighting force. I mean even now, and
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: it looks like, you know, the the United States isn't
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: really helping the way they once were, and yet they
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: continue to persevere.
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: We actually, you know, unlike maybe the rest of us here,
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: they realize they have agency and this is an existential fight,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: and this is a problem that we've now got and
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: you know, our current age of the strong men, as
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: everybody you know refers to it. We've got a bunch
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: of guys who basically think that they're so powerful and
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: that can be in the private sector as well that
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: you know, the techno bros. You know, you're as you've
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: got trillions and billions, you can anything you want. They
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: kind of forget there's eight billion people on this planet
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: and everyone in their own way has some urgency either
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: to just ignore you, move away, you know, go of
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: the grid, try not to engage with you, but to
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: actually be fight back. And that's you know what happened
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: in the case of Ukraine. Putin just kind of assumes
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: he can tell you Ukraines that they have to be Russians,
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of or you know, they don't have
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: the right to their own poverty. And you know, a
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: very large number of them, it doesn't even have to
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: be all of them says no, thank you very much,
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: and you know, I'd rather die. You know, some people
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: would actually literally say than you know, kind of live
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: under under Moscow and look, and that's another kind of
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: problem when you intervene. In the case of Iran, there
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: are die hards for that regime, you know, who will
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: be rallying around.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Seven years absolutely? I mean, you know this is a
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: part we look at Trump's megabase and how devoted they
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: are they here, that's right, and they've only been He's
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: only been their leader for a decade and there they don't.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know it. The irony is all these polls,
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: the self described MAGA is more pro bombing of Iran
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: than the non MAGA wing of the Republican Party. That's
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: how devoted his base is. If he says this is
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: what it should be there with him, and it's amusing
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: to me that he is shocked that they're similar behavior
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: and a theocracy, and.
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: The same in Russia because you've got so many people
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: who have vested into those regimes. And then in Ukraine. Yes,
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: you know, it's complex, but it's a war, you know,
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: It's just like London and the Blitz, you know, and
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: basically all the other class that we can think about
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: from World War Two. They're going to fight back and
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: they're going to you know, keep on resisting this and
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: even if somebody else tries to impose a piece, who's
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: to say that they're going to accept that and certainly
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: the Ukrainians are not going to give up the best
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: defended parts of the Donbas region just because Putin can't
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: win it on the battlefield. So there's just all this complexity,
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: and I think, you know, we're in a state where
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: most of the people who are trying to make decisions,
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: forglect that there are other people. You know, either they're
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: just kind of run rulers all out because you know,
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: everything you know, moving towards AI and automation and humans
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: won't exist, or who cares about you know, what human
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: beings are doing, but actually were large parts of the
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: world that is essential to understand those dynamics. And that's
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: you know where I really kind of think that this
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: administration falls short because Trump can't think of anybody but himself. Sorry,
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: but that's ultimately he himself and other people's shoes.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: He just can't do it, and he assumes everybody is
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: as transactional as he is. I mean, I think he's
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: genuinely surprised that around it and kind of deal well.
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, because I mean he doesn't really believe in ideology,
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: you know, the idolatry and idle lists and idea. You know,
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: he is an idol is American idol, you know, but
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: that's kind of he doesn't think of ideology in the
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: same maybe people around him do. But you know religious zeal.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, look, we have a country here where Evangelical
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: Christians and other you know Christian uh, you know sects
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: and you know other religions you know, kind of a
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: very much We're all talking about it all the time.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: But how much religion is infused in you know, daily
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: daily life and should be or should not be. Well,
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: in Iran it's very much fused in daily life. This
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: was a theocracy, So why are we surprised that there
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: is you know, a very much a fervent responsor to
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: all of this when they I tell how many died.
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: You know, for people, this is the death of their
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: religious leader. It would be as if, you know, for them,
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: and you know, people will go, oh my god, I'm
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: going to make the comparison, but again, this is for them.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: This would be as if you know, Trump had just taken.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Out the pope, right and there would be a lot
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: of Catholics.
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: Just absolutely beside themselves. And you know, I mean the
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: other you know, complexity of all of this is that
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: in Islam, the theocracy and married. You know, so you've
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: got this possibility you know, direct assented. As you said,
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: we don't know whether harmony son you know, is actually
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: all there. We kind of assume, but you know from
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: the parts his wife was killed, his mother was killed,
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: one of his sons were killed, that is not exactly
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: going to be you know, to kind of deal exactly.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: And so I mean this is again, you know, did
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: this all get thought through?
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: Well, I think you know the answer to that question.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so kind of rhetorical point. And I mean that's
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: you know that we always need to have all of
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: these extra contingencies. And that's you know where a larger process,
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: you know, would have at least even if the decision
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: ultimately came down because a lot of people say, look,
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: it was an operational decision, it had to be maximum secrecy,
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: you know, have that opportunity to take out you know,
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: how many and him is in a circle and it
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: was going to window was going to close. But just
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: the whole general idea of just not not just the
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: merits of actually taking that particular action, but what was
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: going to happen more broadly, it could have come out
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: of anc process and into governmental process. You know, getting
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: in reports. I mean, perhaps they did some of this,
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: you know from the I see the intelligence community. I
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: mean I used to work in that. People will prepare
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: you know, reports and assessments, and we're getting a little
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: bit of a hint of that from you know, some
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: of the stuff in the press. You would come to
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: consult allies that actually have not just a vested interest,
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: but a lot of on the ground information. And you know,
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: and then again, I mean back to Congress and at
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: least you know the group and people are saying, well,
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: they were told, were they consulted? Being told? Is something different?
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: Do you know? I feel like the advantage of run
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: right has right now is that simply the regime surviving
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: is winning. Yes, And you know, it's just like Russia
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: and Afghanistan, US and Vietnam. Right, the asymmetrical I mean
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: the fact that supposedly there were orders given out that
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: just said do what you have to do. You don't coordinate.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: There's some decentralized orders given to you know, in the
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: case of if the if Comania is killed, you do
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: what your best you think best is to disrupt this
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: or disrupt that or et cetera. That there's not going
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: to be command and control the way we would have it,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: you know, coming out of the Pentagon or something like that.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: That feels like an unwinnable war. When you have that
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: kind of asymmetric when you're dealing with where they were
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: simply surviving is success.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: Well, you know, I actually have to say, look.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: That's what it's actually what's happening in Ukraine right now.
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: Right exactly exactly, That's exactly what I was going to say,
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: because I don't understand sometimes why you know, Trump and
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: other people are talking to about Ukraine as being losers,
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: because it's.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: Unbelievable, unbelievable, that they're.
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: Unbelievable, absolutely unbelievable. And you know, and then you know,
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: and as you say, that's survival in the face of
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: a literal onslaught is remarkable. And that's the whole you know,
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: myth of World War Two for and it's not just
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: a myth obviously for for Russia the Soviet Union, is
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: that you know, they survived against the odds. And again
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: that's in America. You know, we kind of built on
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: this idea of being the scrappy power that survives against
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: all of the odds when everyone's written us off, and
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: you know, unfortunately, you know, we kind of not actually
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: seeing the others because we tend to think in black
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: and white, good and evil. You know, white hats, black hats.
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: You know, the Iranians are the good guys and you
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: know the bad guys. We're the good guys, you know,
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: so we always have to win. We can't actually see
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: that that that you know that you know, same response
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: can come from you know, the opposing side. And in Afghanistan,
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: the Taliban, but they're tenacious. They found a way of
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: constantly coming back and you know they're back.
• 43:39
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  Speaker 1: you've got a growing family. Let's fast forward two years.
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: There's a new president. There's no restoration anymore. I think
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: you could argue that twenty twenty, you could make a
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: restoration argument to the world that we had going back
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: to multilateralism and all of that stuff, and there was
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit of that with Biden. It feels like
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: the Europeans aren't going to trust us a second time.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: That is this generational? I mean I had somebody ask
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: me this question and I basically said, it's going to
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: take a generation for us to repair the broken alliances
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: that have that have occurred over the last ten years
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: because of this trust issue. When until they see two
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: presidents in a row from different parties behave the same way,
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: we're not going to get trusted again by the Europeans.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: Is that is that a fair way?
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Maybe even longer, you know, obviously. And I think
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: and then what we're going to have is a different
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: set of alliances. I suspect, I mean, NATO won't exist
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: in you know, the form that it is at least truest.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, what is it? I mean, do you think
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: we you think NATO is an alliance and name only
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: at this point.
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: No, I actually think it's going to change. I mean,
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: it might shift its name a little bit. You know,
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: we just have things like the Western European you know, Alliance,
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: the WA and you know all kinds of other you know,
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: kind of groupings at different time. And I think that
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: what we're going to get is, you know, more of
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: a European pillar with Canada. I mean, the US comes
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: continent always like writing off Canada and forget that Canada
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: is actually part of the not American in a treaty organization.
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: And you know, for the United States to basically function
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: in terms of really protecting itself from ballistic missiles, the
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: whole idea of Trump's Golden Dome, you can of eat
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: Canada and it's not just Alaska, and seizing.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Greenland doesn't work without Canadom.
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: No, And you also need Norway and the United Kingdom
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: because some of the key radars that the unices it
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: would be blind without, happened to be located there as well,
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: because it was part of that whole you know, North
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: Atlantic security infrastructure that you had there as well. And
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: all of those countries. I mean, the Norwegians are beside
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: themselves about the whole attacks on Greenland, not because you
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: know this is you know, directly under their sovereignty now,
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: but it used to be. I mean, it has been
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: a part of that larger empire Norway, Denmark, you know,
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: I mean the Scandinavians, you know, more generally they see
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: this as kind of assault on them as well. And
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: you're seeing groupings that used to exist before. So in
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: the case of that Scandinavian landscape, we had something called
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: the obviously all have it, the Joint Expedition Force, which
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: was neither joint expedition nor a force at one point,
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: but it was a grouping to bring Sweden and Finland
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: when they were not parts of NATO into closer coordination.
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: It was gone led by the British, but it had
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: all the Nordic Baltic states, and now that's expanding out.
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: They're trying to bring in Canada, They've got a kind
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: of arrangement with Poland, and it's all for coordination, and
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: I think that's kind of what's going to happen. We're
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: going to see more coordination that leads actually to real
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: reformulation of alliances on a regional basiness or subregional that
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: then starts to shape the whole way that we are
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: going to have to then re engage because we won't
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: be able to come back. And you know, a couple
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: of presidents he said, oh, NATO, Yeah, where where is that?
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: It actually got the key?
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: You know, it's like it's parked in the garage. You know,
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: can I go in there? And you know, take it
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: for a spinner, be like no, sorry, you know, we've
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: already started to move on and to do other things now.
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: The nuclear umbrella, you know, obviously for the United States
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: was critical to natal and remains critical. But we're already
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: having all kinds of decissions going on about you know,
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: what happens with francis independent nuclear by not just program,
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: but it's nuclear arsenal. The UK having all kinds of
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: anxiety about how closely to entwined its submarine nuclear forces
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: with the United States, and wondering, you know, everybody's wondering
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: now about how can we relieve ourselves and what now
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: seems to be a potentially ruinous dependent on the United States,
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: our allies, our erstwhile our so talking about us where
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: they never have before as a liability, no longer as
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: an asset.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: So what would you do if you were in the
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: next president as you try to rebuild these alliances. How
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: would you advise the next president to you know that
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: everybody's going to treat you with trepidation. Is it just
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: lots of money? I mean, what what do you do
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: to start to fix it?
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: Don't we'll have that amount of money to throw around anymore,
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: you know. From one thing. Look, I think there's also
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: something us that's interesting that's happening because of this over
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: emphasis on the president, on the person of the executive,
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: this hyper personalization of the presidency. It's so longer what
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: Dick Cheney and you know people had in mind of
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: a unified executive. It's just one guy, you know, going
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: to lords.
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: It over and yeah, it's I call it movie mob
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: boss like you know, it's not what a real mob
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: boss does, but it's what he thinks the movie mob
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: bosses do.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: And if we think back going to the Knickson era
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: and Watergate and all the aftermath of that, that was
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: trying to kind of get rid of that corrosive potential
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: of too much concentration of power and the president. And
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: you know, I think we're going to have to have
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: in the United States a major domestic discussion about this.
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: And I think that reknew it might have to come
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: from the States because one thing that's also ready starting
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: to happen. When I was in Europe just the last
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: couple of weeks finding out the individual American states are
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: setting up their own representation Texas and all this one
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: California has been out and about, but other states as well,
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: you know, because they no longer feel that their interests
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: are being represented. I mean, if you're a Blue States,
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: you know Trump is you know, you're no longer part
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: of the United States, as Trump is saying, and he's
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: not going to do anything for you know.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: The Articles of Confederation have come back.
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: Yes, exactly, and I think that that actually might become,
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: you know, part of the way in which we reintegrate
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: or kind of reconnect, because you're starting to see states
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: taken upon themselves to think, well, gosh, you know this
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: is terrible. You know, we want to keep.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: Out of the time of all this ends up we factualize.
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's I think there is a high
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: likelihood of that happening, whether you know people are really
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: cognizant of it or not. You're already seeing vaccine mandate,
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: compact public health. Yeah, we've seen that right in the
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: West Coast California, Washington, and Oregon. He's starting to say
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: in New England, you're starting to see universities, you know,
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: trying to link together as they're under attack and higher
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: ed you know, thinking about partnerships and programs abroad or
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: you know, across the United States and where they never
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: did before. Trump is catzing you know, a lot of
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: change that needed to happen, you know, let's say, because
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, we know that, but it's a backing ball,
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: you know, it's a kind of a we're all going
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: to be rebuilding, and that's what the approach is going
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: to have to be for new president. Rebuild. And you're
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: also going to have to prioritize. And I don't know
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: whether this national security strategy was it because we said, hey,
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: we've moved away from the Middle East, we appear to
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: be voluntarily back in it. So we're really going to
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: have to decide about where is it that we want
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: to use the full impact of US power depending on
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: what's left of that at.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: The end of this, if you were sitting I'm going
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: to two more questions, I want to get you out
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: of here. But if you were sitting in she's shoes
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: and you wanted to move on Taiwan. Wouldn't you absolutely
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: prioritize doing it while Trump's in office?
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: Yes? And no, I mean yes, it would seem like
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: this is the you know, the really logical the time,
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: it's not going to do anything about it. Yeah, you
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: want to do it, and everybody else is just watching
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: the horrors and folding elsewhere. They might not even notice
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: you've done it, you know, apart from all the articles
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: that I just wanted it says bye bye Taiwan. But
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: the time, you know, it depends on what else you
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: think you can get out of this current moment in
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: terms of forging you know, ties with other countries, you know,
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: kind of picking up the you know, the rubble from
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: the rubble, you know, the damaged you know, goods and
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: you know, and reforging.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: She's a bit narcissistic though, I mean, he's he looks
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: at the long game a little bit more than Trump does.
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: But he also seems a bit shortsighted at times too.
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean yeah, and he's sort of consolidating in
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: a power at the moment, you know, in.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: Ways very PoID when you're purge in your military like.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: That that you have purged your melogory might not be
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: able to rely on in the same way. And it
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: might just be that, you know, you might be able
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: to put more force on Taiwan in different ways to
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: make Taiwan think, actually, you might be better off with
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: China now than this mayhem and chaos given what the
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: United States is doing. And then maybe that other countries,
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: you know, as they are looking for alternatives to the
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: United States, maybe just more amenable as people already are,
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: to doing things with China in ways that might become
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: more beneficial. I mean, if I was she, but I'm not,
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: you know, and I obviously don't think in the way
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: he is, I'd wait a bit, you know, and see
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: how this, see how this plays out. But it may
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: well be that, you know, kind of he may also
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: think that this is a window that he has to
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: take advantage of because it closes, just like the Israeli
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: case for We've got to go now, you know. So
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: you just again, we don't know, but I'm just saying
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: there could be a lot of opportunity here, you know,
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: for other countries to play things differently. I think already
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: we've moved beyond a US dominated world in the way
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: that it has been for the last eighty years. We're
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: in a kind of post packs Americana for sure, because
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: that's all kind of broken down. The US no longer
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: keeps the peace. But we might be in a you know,
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: it's a sort of a post American Empire phase as well,
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: where other countries are all just basically now starting to
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: look out for themselves, but regrouping in different groups that
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: might exclude the.
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: Acess we as. It's a globe. We had a lot
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: of wars.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: We did, and we've got more of walls now and
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: they're all, you know, getting tangled up, whether we like
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: it or not, because the United States is no longer
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: acting as a peacemaker and you know we're not. We're
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: just not doing that.
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: I thought he ended eight wars.
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: Sorry, Yeah, apparently.
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: Putent's lifespan his health and is there is there an
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: air apparent? Is he grooming anybody? You know? He seems
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: you know what, is Russia still vulnerable to massive change
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: and upheaval if Putin dies?
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: That's the point. Yes, of course it's vulnerable, as is
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: the United States. Frankly, if something happens to put a
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: Trump And also China, was she because once you consolidate
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: so much power in one individual, it's a very unhealthy
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: for your political system, whether there are an autocracy, and
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: especially if you're a democracy, you know, but you're an
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: autocracy as well, because you know, none of these strong
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: when leaders want to groom a successor because they don't
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: want to be a lame duck, because in their settings,
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: a lame duck might be a dead duck, you know,
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: because somebody starts to kind of expedite the process because
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: they would actually like to step into the shoes. And
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: that's certainly how Putin thinks, and maybe that's the way
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: that you know she thinks as well, because the more
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: you move away from something that's structured, even if you
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: do have structures in players for you know, choosing.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: A leader strength structure, right, you.
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: Know, yeah, I mean looks quite vulnerable, right, and I mean, yes,
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: it used to be our strength. But Trump is basically
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: saying that nothing is important but him in the United
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: States the moment. That's what Putin says. You know, it's
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: been wild that you know, over the last couple of weeks,
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: you know, when people talking about Mega for example, and
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: Trump himself said, there's no MAGA without me. You know,
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: basically in Russia Putins always there's no Russia without Putin,
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: and no Russia without you know, without Russia. And it's
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: all of this, it's all of a wanness. You know
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: that you've got the same kind of mindset, and that
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: becomes extraordinary brittle and and and you know, a risk
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: of uppeople in the Russian case, we had that after Stalin.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: Now on the Soviet case, and of course you know,
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: eventually out of that came a collective leadership and then
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: crush off and then you know, kind of lots of boring,
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of ways of selecting leaders after that,
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: and you know that, look, that could happen in Russia.
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: But you know there are successes out there, potential successes
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: who come from the you know, the bodyguards from the
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: security services that you know, seem to be close to
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: put the could step up and could just you know,
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: continue what he's been doing, you know, the equivalent of
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: what we've seen in in vs. Wild Maduro to Chavez
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: or to Ayatollahmeni's son.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: You know, for example, there was a time three or
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: four years ago where I think we all had a
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: little bit of hope that the Russian people might might
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: be a check on Putin. That doesn't seem to be
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: the case.
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: Well, a lot of Europeans everybody else wondering why the
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: American people are not a check on.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: I get this question all the time. You're not in
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: the streets more.
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: Yes, exactly, Well, that's exactly it, because you know that
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: we've seen that the bar is are quite high. When
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: you have a couple you know, no more than a
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: couple of protesters shot by falses. You get you know,
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: American citizens who were disappeared, you know, by ice, which
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: has happened, and you know, you've got kind of a
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: feeling of impunity in the system, the barriers to entry
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: and to protest, and you know kind of doing more
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: very high, and Russia's on that, you know, wave particularly
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: blank piece of paper. We've even had in the UK,
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: the ridiculous situation, you know, after the banning of Palestine,
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: action of people being arrested as well, you know, for
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: holding up pieces of paper. We've got in all of
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: societies now this kind of you know, if your protest
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: is out of step with how people feel, you know
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: that the politics is going, or you know, the the
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: malls or you know, values et cetera. You you know,
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: can have everything kind of come down and you with
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: a with a massive weight. So I think, you know,
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: we should have a little bit more understanding than you know,
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: where the you know, the ussions are coming from. Because
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: it's also feeling. I've had so many people recently and
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: the last week said to me, I feel helpless. I
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: feel like I have no voice. I feel like I
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: have no agency. You know, what can I do?
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: I just you know, here, I tell them go vote.
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, and also you can do a lot of
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: things in your own community, and we can, all of us,
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: you know, but basically could press on our members of
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: Congress to remember there are members of Congress. Yeah, I mean,
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: I'm very I'm a really good member of Congress. I
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: sort of a certain feel that in his responsive I have
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: Jamie Raskin, you know, but you know, if I was
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: in another situation, you know, I might not feel that,
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: you know kind of the somebody is you know, so
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: active in that way or as you know, he's certainly
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: not scared to stand up and say things, you know.
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: But so I think everybody, no matter where they are
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: and no matter you know, what part of the partisan
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: spectrum they're on. They should be demanding that they're members
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: of Congress really represent them and represent all their constituencies,
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: and remember that they're a branch of power.
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: So is it fair to say that you're you, you're
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: epitomizing the great job McCain joke, which is it's always
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: darkest before it goes totally black. You're you're pretty realistically
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: grim about the short term future. It's honestly where I said,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: I always say I'm short term pessimistic, long long term optimistic.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: We eventually figured out.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: But I think we will figure it out, but it's
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: probably going to be in ways that we've just not anticipated.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: As there's a lot going to happen at the state
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: and local government level. You know, we already see that.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of people might opt out of
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: national politics for quite some time because they'll just feel
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: that this is just hopeless and useless. But you know that,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: but we might actually start to see a drive for
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: change coming from I mean, look, that is the real
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: source I think of American strength, which is in the
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: federal system and in the American people writ large, not
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: just as something.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: I try to tell people. It's what to Tokeville, it's
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: what to Touville said about us in democracy from America
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: was the thing he admired the most about our democracy
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: is how local it was and how people were locally.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: The more people run for Congress, even as independents, you know,
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: the more that you can really kind of get people
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: out there. So I would urge people to go and
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: run for your school board, you know, run you know,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: for local government, get involved in your communities and write
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: to your call your Congress people, and just get them
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: to get with their jobs and be brave.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, I just want these members of Congress to
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: read the Constitution and understand Article one. I feel like
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: most of them haven't read it well.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: When I became a citizen as a naturalized citizen, I
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: was given a copy of the Interconstitution and I have
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: it in my bag all the time because, you know,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: as somebody who had to swear to notes the Constitution,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: I thought I should myself with it. Yeah, exactly. And
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: we do need to have more of these kinds of conversations,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: Todd as well. We need to have all kinds of
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: national level conversations about where we're heading, because this is
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: you know, a very difficult time to affects all of US.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: And you know, even if Trump might have had the
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: right and all kinds of nationales to basically attack Iran,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: we all have the right to you know, basically say
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: what happens in the future. So you know, let's kind
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: of find out different ways of being able to participate
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: in this. And I think everybody needs to inform themselves about,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: you know, what is actually happening. Read widely, listen to
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: people like you, you know, listen to podcasts, and you know,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: try to get and engage in all of this.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm that's where I get hopeful. The last time
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: we were in a period like this, in the early
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: twentieth century, we made some of the biggest reforms onto
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: our constitution that mattered a lot, whether it was direct
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: election to senators, women the right to vote, and the
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: income tax, which we had this massive oligarchy then that
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: was developing with with industrialization. So we did it once,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: but it you know, we have to feel more pain
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: and that's usually the American way.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and we definitely can do it again, though, we
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: definitely can.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: Well, Beanness is a great conversation thanks to talk to
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: realistic optimism.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: That's exactly right.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Five