Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Mega Uncertainty Crash📉Crypto Technical Analysis with DataDash
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: A crypto bear market. Are we in one or not? Today?
- 0:02Speaker 2: We'll break it down for you don't want to miss it.
- 0:05Speaker 2: Let's go, of course over to our sponsor and that
- 0:07Speaker 2: is BTCC. You guys can get in on what are
- 0:10Speaker 2: the exchanges out there that I think does a really
- 0:12Speaker 2: good job at being able to give you a lot
- 0:13Speaker 2: of flexibility.
- 0:15Speaker 1: Jump over to BTCC.
- 0:16Speaker 2: We actually have a link page that you guys can
- 0:18Speaker 2: use and you get a ten percent first time bonus,
- 0:20Speaker 2: So you put in five hundred bucks, you can get
- 0:22Speaker 2: fifty fifty bucks, one thousand, one hundred and so on
- 0:26Speaker 2: a lot of other things that they are doing over there.
- 0:28Speaker 2: With our signup, there's extra bonuses available to you, forty
- 0:32Speaker 2: percent lower trading fees, and also you get into a
- 0:34Speaker 2: VIP level which gets you some additional privileges over there.
- 0:38Speaker 2: So if you are into trading and really getting into
- 0:42Speaker 2: maybe some leverage, then this might be a track for
- 0:45Speaker 2: you guys.
- 0:45Speaker 1: Check it out linked down below.
- 0:46Speaker 2: All right, let's go over to a couple of points
- 0:48Speaker 2: I want to hit on, but before I do that,
- 0:50Speaker 2: I want to bring in our guest today, and that
- 0:53Speaker 2: of course is just Paul Sampson coming in from Data Dash,
- 0:56Speaker 2: How are.
- 0:56Speaker 3: You doing well, Paul? Always a pleasure to be here, sir.
- 1:00Speaker 2: So we we of course had you early in the week.
- 1:03Speaker 2: We didn't anticipate what we saw yesterday in the FED,
- 1:06Speaker 2: so we thought we got to get an emergency, you know,
- 1:10Speaker 2: an emergency episode with Paul. So we can break this
- 1:12Speaker 2: down because this is a little crazy right now. If
- 1:15Speaker 2: the if an FOMC rate cut won't move the bitcoin price,
- 1:20Speaker 2: My point is, what will I mean this guy is
- 1:23Speaker 2: he's very hawkish. Yesterday he started throwing out all kinds
- 1:26Speaker 2: of craziness. It felt like he was almost like really
- 1:30Speaker 2: going after Trump. When you look at the response on it,
- 1:32Speaker 2: what was your initial response to what you heard? I mean,
- 1:35Speaker 2: because there was good and bad in this thing.
- 1:38Speaker 4: I mean yeah, I mean I was actually watching your
- 1:40Speaker 4: coverage on it, which is fun. But yeah, it was
- 1:42Speaker 4: just same as you said, like all things kind of
- 1:45Speaker 4: point to you know, a good good good things. I
- 1:48Speaker 4: guess big picture wise, the slip on bitcoin. I can
- 1:51Speaker 4: actually attest to a technical setup on that which is
- 1:54Speaker 4: going to be pretty interesting to look at here. But yeah,
- 1:57Speaker 4: aside from that, you know, yeah, everything with the rate
- 1:59Speaker 4: cut and then with the quantitative titaning coming to an
- 2:02Speaker 4: end here in the next few weeks. I mean, all
- 2:04Speaker 4: those things traditionally would lead to you know, good results
- 2:07Speaker 4: and good rhetoric in the market. So this like short
- 2:09Speaker 4: term pullback is you know, I know, it's got many
- 2:11Speaker 4: people up in you know, panic or just just questioning
- 2:15Speaker 4: in it to some degree. But I took it as
- 2:18Speaker 4: in the long term and the bigger picture here what
- 2:19Speaker 4: we have probably to come in the following months in
- 2:21Speaker 4: the year that it was all good things.
- 2:24Speaker 1: Oh interesting, Okay, well good.
- 2:26Speaker 2: I'm glad to hear a different perspective because what I've
- 2:29Speaker 2: been hearing is a lot of people calling the top
- 2:31Speaker 2: here and other things that play into this. That still
- 2:35Speaker 2: because these are good narratives, and this of course was
- 2:37Speaker 2: one of them. Investors are waking up to the big
- 2:39Speaker 2: news with Trump and she and the main thing is
- 2:42Speaker 2: China has no longer got one hundred percent of tariff
- 2:44Speaker 2: going live on them. So that is good news because
- 2:48Speaker 2: apparently the President came in and said, this was a
- 2:51Speaker 2: really good meeting.
- 2:52Speaker 1: We like what we heard. Things are moving forward.
- 2:55Speaker 2: As progressed, and this is huge. Normally, Paul, this would
- 3:02Speaker 2: move bitcoin like crazy. Tell me why it's not moving
- 3:06Speaker 2: on the charts right now, what are you seeing?
- 3:10Speaker 4: So I'll kind of cut into the most recent move here,
- 3:14Speaker 4: which if we go back to even just Monday, we
- 3:16Speaker 4: were trading right around this region. I think it was
- 3:18Speaker 4: like one fourteen. It was Tuesday Ishuday, right around here
- 3:20Speaker 4: on Monday, and I was covering on how you know
- 3:23Speaker 4: important Basically one fourteen was don't quote me if I
- 3:27Speaker 4: mentioned it heavily here on Monday or not, but we
- 3:29Speaker 4: were looking at that level and for me, I was
- 3:30Speaker 4: looking to hold that area, and if we were, we
- 3:32Speaker 4: were going to look for that one twenty region. But
- 3:35Speaker 4: ultimately my overall thesis has been since the one twenty
- 3:39Speaker 4: six high is that we were going to see bitcoin
- 3:42Speaker 4: range for quite some time right into that area, down
- 3:44Speaker 4: into the ninety seven thousand dollars region potentially. And when
- 3:48Speaker 4: we see all this news right now coming out, it's
- 3:50Speaker 4: it's again one of those times where it's like, why
- 3:52Speaker 4: is in this moving? It's it's one of those pieces
- 3:54Speaker 4: where I think that the price action is going through
- 3:57Speaker 4: its own its own piece here where the news you
- 4:00Speaker 4: would think is going to move it, but we're just
- 4:02Speaker 4: unfortunately stuck into the range.
- 4:03Speaker 3: And I think that this news is going to come,
- 4:05Speaker 3: you know, to a.
- 4:05Speaker 4: Place where down the road, it'll be looked at like,
- 4:08Speaker 4: you know, if we come down to this region here
- 4:09Speaker 4: and we get that big bounce in a couple of
- 4:11Speaker 4: weeks or what have you. You know, then we looked
- 4:13Speaker 4: at like, oh, well we got all the rate cuts
- 4:14Speaker 4: and everything's you know, moving along now here for bitcoin
- 4:17Speaker 4: properly as far as what we saw more locally to here, Paul,
- 4:21Speaker 4: but the one fourteen, as soon as we gave that up,
- 4:24Speaker 4: this is actually a setup that we see almost each
- 4:27Speaker 4: and every week. And if you were to take the
- 4:29Speaker 4: news away from yesterday, this is something I looked for,
- 4:32Speaker 4: which is I utilize previous week range data almost every
- 4:35Speaker 4: single week, and a lot of times when we're opening
- 4:38Speaker 4: up near the high, which is exactly what we did.
- 4:40Speaker 3: We started on Monday up at around that one fifteen.
- 4:43Speaker 4: You do this little sweep aroo and you do what
- 4:45Speaker 4: I call you sweep the high and you die and
- 4:47Speaker 4: essentially you just come back in and you run last
- 4:50Speaker 4: week's range. So this is the range for last week
- 4:52Speaker 4: based on volume. We essentially opened up outside of it,
- 4:55Speaker 4: and it's an inefficiency in the chart more than anything.
- 4:58Speaker 4: And like I said, you see this almost time and
- 4:59Speaker 4: time again, and if vice versa, had we opened up
- 5:02Speaker 4: at the low here, you would have probably saw it
- 5:04Speaker 4: come up like this.
- 5:05Speaker 3: And to end this.
- 5:06Speaker 4: Whole little outlook here, because we're coming into this move
- 5:10Speaker 4: right now, especially at the end of the week now,
- 5:12Speaker 4: and especially as we're coming into it at the end
- 5:14Speaker 4: of October. This just the same as we just saw
- 5:17Speaker 4: a big pump last week, a dump this week. It's
- 5:19Speaker 4: very likely, Paul, the next week we're going to get
- 5:21Speaker 4: another move to the upside. The question is that we're
- 5:23Speaker 4: going to get a little bit lower here in the
- 5:25Speaker 4: next coming days before that starts. But ultimately that's the
- 5:28Speaker 4: setup at hand, which was this where we just took
- 5:31Speaker 4: the high. Personally, I was looking to hold that one
- 5:34Speaker 4: fourteen and we could actually had that little jaunt up
- 5:36Speaker 4: to one twenty. But the second we gave up one fourteen, Paul,
- 5:38Speaker 4: I was looking for that range rotation cme gap.
- 5:41Speaker 3: I'd noted it here.
- 5:42Speaker 4: I know that many were looking to see us just
- 5:44Speaker 4: come and fill the gap and get the bounce. To me,
- 5:45Speaker 4: I didn't think it was really relevant because if we
- 5:48Speaker 4: did start coming down, we were probably just going to
- 5:49Speaker 4: blow right through it, which is what we've done now,
- 5:51Speaker 4: So now we just kind of got to let the
- 5:52Speaker 4: dust set a.
- 5:53Speaker 3: Little bit here as we end the week end the month.
- 5:55Speaker 4: But ultimately I do think that everything that has been
- 5:58Speaker 4: said yesterday today, the progress with President chi and President Trump,
- 6:03Speaker 4: I think that those elements will all come together in
- 6:05Speaker 4: the next coming weeks here, and we could very well
- 6:07Speaker 4: see next week turn around and we get a nice
- 6:08Speaker 4: big move to the upside and all that news starts
- 6:10Speaker 4: to feel like it's catching up.
- 6:12Speaker 2: I guess, yeah, well, I mean, and the point is
- 6:15Speaker 2: is that there's just been so much positive news that
- 6:17Speaker 2: I'm not sure that the markets have completely tried to
- 6:20Speaker 2: figure out how this affects because the I think with
- 6:23Speaker 2: the Fed, what Powell said yesterday about no rate cuts
- 6:26Speaker 2: in December, potentially I think that was the thing that
- 6:31Speaker 2: kind of put this market on its heels. We'll get
- 6:33Speaker 2: into that in a second. Looking at the government shutdown,
- 6:36Speaker 2: because this is the other major issue right now that
- 6:39Speaker 2: we're dealing with. And if you look at polymarket right
- 6:42Speaker 2: now between what is it, November sixteenth, it looks like
- 6:45Speaker 2: it's around thirty five percent possibility, so fairly low, and
- 6:48Speaker 2: it's diving November fourth through the seventh rising slightly, and
- 6:54Speaker 2: as you can see, I mean this is an elongated
- 6:57Speaker 2: potential shutdown. So this is a problem going forward as well.
- 7:02Speaker 2: I want to play a clip for you that goes
- 7:05Speaker 2: into the topic that I was getting at right there,
- 7:08Speaker 2: and that is the thing that Powell said that I
- 7:12Speaker 2: think put crypto on its heels.
- 7:13Speaker 5: Take a look in the committee's discussions at this meeting,
- 7:17Speaker 5: there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December.
- 7:22Speaker 5: A further reduction in the policy rate at the December
- 7:25Speaker 5: meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it. Policy
- 7:30Speaker 5: is not on a preset course.
- 7:34Speaker 6: I thought a couple of things. One is highly unusual
- 7:36Speaker 6: film to be so clear about the next meeting. Normally
- 7:40Speaker 6: they're a little more circumspect, but he was very much
- 7:43Speaker 6: cleared pushing back. Secondly, I thought, not its total surprise.
- 7:47Speaker 6: I think markets had forgotten the September plots that showed
- 7:52Speaker 6: you know, roughly an evenly split committee. And after the
- 7:56Speaker 6: meeting a number of the Fed president, particularly President Schmid,
- 7:59Speaker 6: and a few others and express some disagreement of some concern.
- 8:04Speaker 6: But to be fair, it is highly unusual for a
- 8:06Speaker 6: share to be sourceless about the uncertainty in the December meeting,
- 8:09Speaker 6: he said something yesterday that is very important, which is
- 8:13Speaker 6: twenty five or fifty basis points, is not what's driving
- 8:18Speaker 6: this massive building of data centers. It's being driven by
- 8:24Speaker 6: expectations of great returns and ability to keep up with demand.
- 8:28Speaker 3: So I don't think.
- 8:29Speaker 6: They are in a position to actually attempt to tamp down.
- 8:34Speaker 3: This capital expenditure.
- 8:36Speaker 6: Any more than they could tamp down, you know, the
- 8:38Speaker 6: equity markets very successfully, all right.
- 8:42Speaker 1: So he had on a few points there.
- 8:44Speaker 2: I was a bit surprised also with Chair Powell making
- 8:46Speaker 2: that statement. And the point that you know that analyst
- 8:50Speaker 2: was getting to is that the market is not necessarily
- 8:52Speaker 2: responding to these lower interest rates, because this has kind
- 8:55Speaker 2: of been piped into the fluff of AI if you
- 8:58Speaker 2: look at true we have been climbing on inflation really
- 9:03Speaker 2: since about May to where we are right now edging
- 9:07Speaker 2: up close again to about two and a half percent.
- 9:09Speaker 1: So there are some pressures.
- 9:11Speaker 2: But I think the issue with Powell is that I
- 9:14Speaker 2: think he's lost the job market at this point. Now.
- 9:17Speaker 2: It's not that we've seen yes, we've seen a lot
- 9:19Speaker 2: of jobs coming, but the numbers that we're seeing and
- 9:22Speaker 2: I've been saying this for months, is that the leading
- 9:25Speaker 2: indicator for job loss in America is the restaurant industry,
- 9:30Speaker 2: full stop. If the restaurant industry is not creating foot traffic,
- 9:34Speaker 2: those brands do badly. If that happens, that's a what
- 9:40Speaker 2: fifteen million people work in that industry, So that in
- 9:43Speaker 2: itself starts to isolate around. These big tech layoffs are
- 9:47Speaker 2: nothing if we don't see that market come back. So
- 9:50Speaker 2: all of that, along with what we're seeing right now
- 9:52Speaker 2: on what could be the spin for us, and that
- 9:56Speaker 2: is most bullish for crypto qt ending, government reopening right now.
- 10:01Speaker 1: It's bill passing.
- 10:02Speaker 2: Crypto bill passing is what people are thinking, and it's
- 10:06Speaker 2: by a large amount. So I'm surprised at that, especially
- 10:12Speaker 2: where we are right now with all these macro headwinds
- 10:15Speaker 2: that seem to be loosening up. With the exception of
- 10:18Speaker 2: chair Pal, which you know, I hate say it, I
- 10:21Speaker 2: think you know, there's a little bit of a political
- 10:24Speaker 2: issue going in there right now. Do you think this
- 10:27Speaker 2: is a scam dump?
- 10:30Speaker 4: I saw that yesterday, which is that's like an old post,
- 10:33Speaker 4: right yeah, from twenty twenty four. Okay, No, So I
- 10:36Speaker 4: mean again, like as I just showed right where if
- 10:39Speaker 4: you took away the news from this week, and I
- 10:41Speaker 4: could even wish I had a couple more setups right now.
- 10:44Speaker 4: But again, I look at this exact same thing every
- 10:47Speaker 4: single week, and we once again you get these big bursts,
- 10:50Speaker 4: especially when you get those Sunday pumps, right everybody always
- 10:53Speaker 4: usually looks at it like a Sunday pump equals a
- 10:54Speaker 4: Monday dump. But generally speaking, when we get those huge
- 10:58Speaker 4: moves at the end of a week or the end
- 11:00Speaker 4: of a month, which again I'm going to highlight that
- 11:02Speaker 4: it is the end of October right now, and if
- 11:04Speaker 4: we look at Bitcoin right this moment, we are sitting
- 11:07Speaker 4: on just what I looked at in this very short
- 11:09Speaker 4: term weekly outlook. So far for the month of October,
- 11:12Speaker 4: it's been down. And I was happy when you had
- 11:15Speaker 4: me come back on today because I want to see
- 11:17Speaker 4: how this kind of looks as we go into November now.
- 11:19Speaker 4: But basically, as we're going into November, let's just take
- 11:22Speaker 4: a look at how October's range is shaping up. And
- 11:24Speaker 4: this is all to answer the question of is this
- 11:26Speaker 4: a scam dump and anything like that. I think it's
- 11:28Speaker 4: just one of those times where the news just doesn't
- 11:30Speaker 4: align well with the price action and people just have
- 11:33Speaker 4: a hard time trying to make sense of it. Essentially,
- 11:36Speaker 4: but this is our range here for the month of October. Again,
- 11:39Speaker 4: I utilize a lot of timing, a lot of range data,
- 11:41Speaker 4: and this is pretty normal. This is the reason why
- 11:43Speaker 4: I was targeting one twenty as we were trading up
- 11:45Speaker 4: above that one fourteen, because it was basically the high
- 11:48Speaker 4: side of the range. We have now came back down
- 11:50Speaker 4: and lost our gold i'm sorry, our point of control,
- 11:52Speaker 4: which is our main area here. So likely now we
- 11:55Speaker 4: probably are going to head toward the bottom of the
- 11:57Speaker 4: range here, which would be like one O four, one
- 11:59Speaker 4: O three, whatever the case may be. We're pretty much
- 12:00Speaker 4: there now, so give or take. But as we start
- 12:03Speaker 4: into November, now what we see time and time again
- 12:06Speaker 4: is a replacement of that last range. So uh, these
- 12:09Speaker 4: levels here are more likely going to get revisited here
- 12:13Speaker 4: in the coming weeks. I don't think that this was
- 12:15Speaker 4: a scam pump or our scam dump, I'm sorry. I
- 12:18Speaker 4: think it was just something that again you kind of
- 12:20Speaker 4: had to almost be managing it as you went there.
- 12:22Speaker 4: But it was a pretty cut and dry set up
- 12:25Speaker 4: to me, that occurs time and time again, and realistically
- 12:27Speaker 4: it was you know, it's it's unfortunate for the all
- 12:29Speaker 4: coins because it's a ten percent drop on Bitcoin, which
- 12:32Speaker 4: takes us back to literally one week ago, I guess.
- 12:34Speaker 3: Which is always interesting to even look back on.
- 12:37Speaker 4: But it's unfortunate with the all coins because on those
- 12:40Speaker 4: drops it takes down the rest of the market ten, fifteen,
- 12:42Speaker 4: twenty percent at the time.
- 12:43Speaker 3: So answer that question. Though I don't think it was
- 12:45Speaker 3: a scam dump.
- 12:46Speaker 4: I think that the price action will more than likely
- 12:48Speaker 4: recover as we start next week and start next month,
- 12:52Speaker 4: and then all these things that occurred yesterday and today,
- 12:54Speaker 4: like I said, it may start to stumble in where
- 12:56Speaker 4: it's like it'll start looking positive.
- 12:59Speaker 3: So we'll see.
- 13:00Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just looking at other all coins. I
- 13:03Speaker 2: mean salonas down almost twenty five percent just in the
- 13:06Speaker 2: last month and a half, so downward trend there to
- 13:08Speaker 2: your point. But I want to jump over to Ethereum
- 13:11Speaker 2: because there's a couple of points here that I want
- 13:13Speaker 2: to hit on with ETH and that is this tweet
- 13:16Speaker 2: right here. Tom Lee put this out very strong Q
- 13:20Speaker 2: three earning seasons.
- 13:21Speaker 1: Keep it up to date.
- 13:22Speaker 2: We're seeing a lot of things happening in the market,
- 13:25Speaker 2: good numbers in general. And what he's kind of referring
- 13:29Speaker 2: to here is the opportunity of where Eth could be going,
- 13:34Speaker 2: especially with token is securities. And I think that's his
- 13:36Speaker 2: you know, his leverage into what he believes around ethereum
- 13:40Speaker 2: as a whole. But Eth, right now, man, this is
- 13:43Speaker 2: is this a by at thirty seven hundred? Do you
- 13:45Speaker 2: feel like we start to hit that thirty four thirty
- 13:48Speaker 2: three hundred range? What's your what's your target here?
- 13:53Speaker 4: It's to me we're so the same thing here happened
- 13:57Speaker 4: as bitcoin, just looking at more locally right to kind
- 14:00Speaker 4: of explain this recent drop. So it's one of two
- 14:04Speaker 4: things that you start the week you get this one
- 14:05Speaker 4: burst up again. Now we had last week's information right here.
- 14:08Speaker 4: We started off at the high and you got one
- 14:11Speaker 4: of two options. We flipped the high and as long
- 14:13Speaker 4: as you're above that, you look higher. But the second
- 14:15Speaker 4: you come back down below that, you're looking to run
- 14:17Speaker 4: that range, all right, and exactly what we did here.
- 14:20Speaker 4: So this is eachs range from last week. This is
- 14:22Speaker 4: our log we're coming into right now. So as far
- 14:24Speaker 4: as that goes, that play has already been performed there,
- 14:28Speaker 4: So I'm not really going to be looking to that
- 14:30Speaker 4: at the moment for anything specific. If I'm going to
- 14:32Speaker 4: zoom out and look at the idea of is this
- 14:35Speaker 4: a by zone or not, this is still that region
- 14:38Speaker 4: that I was looking at on Monday, even the standing
- 14:41Speaker 4: as long as we are staying above this box, which
- 14:43Speaker 4: is where we wick down to, which is our yearly
- 14:46Speaker 4: open here, and more importantly the macro three to eight
- 14:49Speaker 4: to two of the overall fourteen hundred dollars low to
- 14:52Speaker 4: our now forty nine hundred dollars high, As long as
- 14:54Speaker 4: we're staying above this on daily closing basis anything really
- 14:58Speaker 4: to me is it's not the most ideal buy, of
- 15:01Speaker 4: course compared to where we were a year ago or
- 15:03Speaker 4: what have you. But yes, if I'm looking at compared
- 15:05Speaker 4: to forty nine hundred and down, and if I'm looking up,
- 15:07Speaker 4: which at the moment, as long as we're above here,
- 15:09Speaker 4: I am targeting back up to the upside, then yeah,
- 15:12Speaker 4: I mean I would say that this region is where
- 15:13Speaker 4: I'd be looking to for the most ideal entries pretty
- 15:16Speaker 4: much starting out where we're at now right as far
- 15:18Speaker 4: as again looking at spot buys and stuff like that
- 15:21Speaker 4: I don't love to buy things that are up, you know,
- 15:22Speaker 4: incredibly on the year or anything like that. But I mean,
- 15:25Speaker 4: for me, I am anticipating a five to seven thousand
- 15:28Speaker 4: dollars eath so at thirty seven hundred dollars looking back, Yeah,
- 15:31Speaker 4: it's just one of those times when you know all
- 15:32Speaker 4: the tail winds. As you said, it's it's always a
- 15:34Speaker 4: little scary or very scary when the better buy opportunities
- 15:38Speaker 4: are there, and everybody's very fearful that the top is
- 15:40Speaker 4: in the bear market is here. We're just going to
- 15:41Speaker 4: see nothing but downside. So you just kind of have
- 15:44Speaker 4: to sift through all those emotions and figure out what's
- 15:46Speaker 4: good for yourself. But yes, to me, and again where
- 15:49Speaker 4: I'm wrong and where things changed if we start living
- 15:51Speaker 4: below thirty three hundred. But until then, yeah, I think
- 15:55Speaker 4: we're ranging around here, Paul, And I think that the
- 15:57Speaker 4: next leg up comes in a few weeks two months
- 16:00Speaker 4: potentially for Ethereum. I'll go back to that really quickly
- 16:03Speaker 4: to put that to bed. Right. We were looking at
- 16:04Speaker 4: that on Monday as well, where due to some timing
- 16:08Speaker 4: and things like that, that all aline but a nice
- 16:11Speaker 4: clean version of that, right, Paul, to look at this
- 16:13Speaker 4: in a timely manner is that we could very well
- 16:16Speaker 4: as long as we're holding above here, we could very
- 16:17Speaker 4: well see the next leg up here into November, potentially
- 16:21Speaker 4: through January of this five thousand and seven thousand dollars box.
- 16:24Speaker 4: So to me, I'm not really sweating it, and that's
- 16:27Speaker 4: just kind of how I'm approaching it with Eve.
- 16:29Speaker 1: I like your I like your attitude here, Paul. You
- 16:32Speaker 1: seem like you're very laid back on this little movie
- 16:35Speaker 1: or wherever the market. If you look at you know,
- 16:39Speaker 1: it's just it's crazy.
- 16:41Speaker 5: It is.
- 16:41Speaker 3: It's unfortunate. And like I said, I see this move often.
- 16:44Speaker 4: It's just it's it's I wish that it was I
- 16:46Speaker 4: was a little bit more like, oh, this is definitely
- 16:48Speaker 4: going down on Monday, but of course we had to
- 16:50Speaker 4: kind of gauge it as we went. But yeah, it
- 16:52Speaker 4: just it makes sense when when when it's there, it's
- 16:55Speaker 4: just the news and a lot of analyzing price movement.
- 16:58Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of analysts are pointing at that night,
- 17:00Speaker 2: well one hundred k bitcoin drops under one hundred, they're
- 17:03Speaker 2: out of the market, you know, that kind of thing.
- 17:05Speaker 2: So we could see all that occurring in the near months.
- 17:09Speaker 2: But well, you know, we got a lot to look
- 17:10Speaker 2: at here. Fed ended QT in October twenty nineteen, all
- 17:14Speaker 2: dropped forty two percent after that. They only started pumping
- 17:17Speaker 2: once the FED started QE in March of twenty twenty. Now, granted,
- 17:22Speaker 2: if you look at the comparison of this over the years,
- 17:26Speaker 2: it's kind of been interesting. The start, we add a
- 17:29Speaker 2: big pump, end of QE downward, which is what we're
- 17:33Speaker 2: in right now, start of QT, which we think is
- 17:37Speaker 2: going to happen faster this time around, and you get
- 17:40Speaker 2: another pump and then repeat the cycle. Start of QT,
- 17:45Speaker 2: start of QE, end of q E, et cetera. You
- 17:48Speaker 2: can kind of see how this lays out to where
- 17:50Speaker 2: basically what we're waiting for is easy. You know, once
- 17:53Speaker 2: you see easing come in, boom, you have got a
- 17:56Speaker 2: rock star market getting ready to pump into it. For reasons,
- 18:01Speaker 2: this is the the balance sheet trends and outside of
- 18:04Speaker 2: this one, this is where we are right now. So
- 18:07Speaker 2: maybe Chair Powell's strategy is, you know, rotate this in
- 18:14Speaker 2: for easing. As he starts to exit the position and
- 18:18Speaker 2: the market is booming and he looks like a hero, you.
- 18:21Speaker 4: Know, So it's very political point.
- 18:25Speaker 3: Yeah, of course the hero at the end.
- 18:28Speaker 2: Yeah, a little bit of US spot demand slipped around
- 18:32Speaker 2: this market pressure for ethereum. How well do you think
- 18:35Speaker 2: the rest of the spots are going to do? I know,
- 18:39Speaker 2: you know, we'll talk about Solana a second, but Slana
- 18:41Speaker 2: x RP, like coin was in Hadera, came live.
- 18:45Speaker 1: You think this is still bullish for the spot ETFs.
- 18:51Speaker 4: I do again, you know what, right now, it all
- 18:53Speaker 4: kind of defaults back to the bitcoin movement. I think
- 18:55Speaker 4: that everything always revolves around it. And my my big
- 18:59Speaker 4: feet at the moment is and has been again since
- 19:02Speaker 4: one twenty six, that we were going to see a
- 19:03Speaker 4: range out, a big one right here, just like last
- 19:05Speaker 4: summer or just sorry, just like the beginning of this year,
- 19:07Speaker 4: just like last summer, just like twenty twenty three. And
- 19:10Speaker 4: during this period it's filled with pops and drops, and
- 19:13Speaker 4: every time everybody gets very emotional on each version of that.
- 19:16Speaker 4: So I do think that over and and that's a
- 19:20Speaker 4: really good example I think is just even look back
- 19:22Speaker 4: on when the ETF went live for ethereum, and that
- 19:25Speaker 4: was what March twenty twenty four. Yeah, we had a
- 19:28Speaker 4: huge correction in the market and then a range that
- 19:30Speaker 4: came out of that for six months, and EATH went
- 19:33Speaker 4: from four thousand to fourteen hundred, and now it's back
- 19:35Speaker 4: at four thousand. And it's just, you know, it's not
- 19:37Speaker 4: always a deliberate great news catalyst comes out today, skyrocket tomorrow,
- 19:42Speaker 4: And I think that that's what people probably have the
- 19:44Speaker 4: hardest time swallowing. But then you look back ten years,
- 19:47Speaker 4: you forget all the ups and downs and it's like, oh, yeah,
- 19:49Speaker 4: we got the ETF in twenty twenty four and it was.
- 19:51Speaker 3: Just off to the races.
- 19:52Speaker 4: So I think it's just that you got to be
- 19:54Speaker 4: able to kind of just differentiate yourself from the day
- 19:57Speaker 4: to day noise, but at the same time time protecting
- 20:00Speaker 4: yourself and everything, like, of course, if the market is
- 20:02Speaker 4: topped and that's what you feel and you know, you
- 20:04Speaker 4: have to protect yourself in that sense, I would say
- 20:06Speaker 4: that I'm going to manage my portfolio a lot different
- 20:08Speaker 4: than somebody else. If I'm in from years ago and
- 20:10Speaker 4: way lower. You know, somebody's just buying into the market
- 20:12Speaker 4: at four thousand.
- 20:15Speaker 1: Yeah, your risk tolerance completely different.
- 20:17Speaker 2: When you're buying you know, a nine hundred dollars eighth
- 20:19Speaker 2: and we're trading at you know, thirty three hundred right now,
- 20:22Speaker 2: so I get that. Other things to look at is
- 20:26Speaker 2: what's going on in the defied market. Of course, we've
- 20:28Speaker 2: seen UNI swap continued to fly in terms of their
- 20:30Speaker 2: dex volume, which is showing upward trends right now, no
- 20:34Speaker 2: matter that the market is down.
- 20:35Speaker 1: This is like an all time high for uniewap.
- 20:38Speaker 2: If you look at this one right now at a
- 20:42Speaker 2: total value locked right now at five point three billion,
- 20:46Speaker 2: would you play would you take a roll of the
- 20:49Speaker 2: dice with uniswap right now?
- 20:54Speaker 4: Based on the fundamentals, you know, that definitely is something
- 20:59Speaker 4: to keep in mind, and I would say that realistically.
- 21:01Speaker 4: I have the chart here for UNI swap too, and
- 21:04Speaker 4: over the last few years, UNI swap one inch.
- 21:07Speaker 3: What was the other one?
- 21:08Speaker 4: At least the two of those pancakeswap maybe it is,
- 21:11Speaker 4: but they've all had some really big bursts here and
- 21:14Speaker 4: this huge range we've been in since I think twenty
- 21:16Speaker 4: twenty two, Yes, it's basically the bitcoin bear market low.
- 21:20Speaker 4: You've seen some pops totally give it back up, pop
- 21:22Speaker 4: back again. Macro three A two, which is generally what
- 21:24Speaker 4: I look for for almost anything that looks like this
- 21:27Speaker 4: right back to the bottom. And so to pair up
- 21:30Speaker 4: with what you just mentioned, Paul, like everything that you
- 21:32Speaker 4: just pointed out, we also pretty much trading at the
- 21:34Speaker 4: lows on UNI swap. So when you look at something
- 21:37Speaker 4: like this, we had that big liquidation, WI you is
- 21:40Speaker 4: this something I'd put a little risk into.
- 21:42Speaker 3: I probably would. And honestly, you.
- 21:43Speaker 4: Could see something like what we saw with z cash
- 21:45Speaker 4: come out of this, you know, where you have this
- 21:47Speaker 4: huge consolidation and this is just coiled up. You know,
- 21:50Speaker 4: you get a little bit of momentum behind this. And yes,
- 21:53Speaker 4: I mean this does have some pretty sizable moves to
- 21:55Speaker 4: the upside. It's going to have risk like anything else
- 21:57Speaker 4: in the market does. But yeah, I think I would.
- 21:59Speaker 4: I would, you know, definitely consider taking a look at
- 22:01Speaker 4: uniswap right now.
- 22:02Speaker 2: Good possible play. There another one to take a look
- 22:05Speaker 2: at right now. As Solana dips well under two hundred
- 22:08Speaker 2: on the news of Western Union's partnership, what did you
- 22:14Speaker 2: think about this if you look at Solana on the charts,
- 22:17Speaker 2: because it's good news in general, you know for Solana,
- 22:20Speaker 2: but on the charts did not look good. And if
- 22:22Speaker 2: you look at the Salona ETFs I mean, look at
- 22:24Speaker 2: this right here, b sool opened at fifty six million.
- 22:27Speaker 2: That was huge, you know, and not a bad day,
- 22:31Speaker 2: big day for According to Eric talking about the Soul ETFs,
- 22:37Speaker 2: when you look at the chart, where would you go
- 22:39Speaker 2: on Solana right now?
- 22:42Speaker 4: Yeah, so I really haven't changed the setup here. I
- 22:45Speaker 4: was looking at a couple other things. I think just
- 22:47Speaker 4: the cleanest look on Solana is still just pretty much
- 22:49Speaker 4: this right. So again when you talk about the risk management,
- 22:53Speaker 4: even from you know where I got in my last
- 22:56Speaker 4: position personally, and this is just spot no leverage or
- 22:58Speaker 4: anything like that, just buy and hold and taking profits
- 23:01Speaker 4: and scaling on the way up. But it's you know,
- 23:03Speaker 4: from ninety seven dollars. This was a bullish reversal setup
- 23:06Speaker 4: that we completed back in April. We got some really
- 23:09Speaker 4: big targets up here. We've been hovering around the main one,
- 23:12Speaker 4: the first one here for quite some time. It's pretty
- 23:14Speaker 4: much that one ninety six.
- 23:16Speaker 3: I think that we.
- 23:16Speaker 4: Could really revisit the low end of this region here
- 23:19Speaker 4: again the one sixty to one fifty area, and again
- 23:22Speaker 4: just consolidating below here. But ultimately I still anticipate to
- 23:26Speaker 4: see Solona really make a push here and the way
- 23:28Speaker 4: that we're consolidating so slowly, you could almost start building
- 23:31Speaker 4: out you know, bull flags in this region and things
- 23:34Speaker 4: like that. But I feel like we're going to have
- 23:36Speaker 4: a pretty explosive move, probably towards these other two targets
- 23:39Speaker 4: potentially towards the end of the year here that the
- 23:41Speaker 4: ideal situation is to see us above two hundred, you know,
- 23:43Speaker 4: really give that confirmation again, but hovering around here, yeah,
- 23:47Speaker 4: I just I still see it coming up to that region. Now.
- 23:49Speaker 3: The only thing I'll point out again here in.
- 23:51Speaker 4: The sense of just you know, before anybody gets really
- 23:53Speaker 4: overly into something like Salona brand new at two hundred
- 23:57Speaker 4: dollars is again you got to think back to see
- 23:59Speaker 4: how long this how high this is since the last
- 24:02Speaker 4: few years, somebody that was able to get it even
- 24:04Speaker 4: at twenty four dollars eight dollars at the low. So
- 24:07Speaker 4: this is still an asset that's surprisingly high. But when
- 24:10Speaker 4: we do look at the big picture here, it's also
- 24:12Speaker 4: something that's seen impulse moves and has been holding unlike
- 24:16Speaker 4: many others where you see them huge moves up and
- 24:18Speaker 4: just round tripping. So I think that Salana looks strong.
- 24:21Speaker 4: I think that it's definitely. I think it's got to
- 24:24Speaker 4: move packing up right now that we could see a
- 24:26Speaker 4: push up to that three hundred dollars region.
- 24:29Speaker 2: All right, Well, that's a big one because I know
- 24:32Speaker 2: a lot of our viewers are a big Salona holders.
- 24:35Speaker 2: Another token that is popular on our channel is Avalanche. Avalanche,
- 24:39Speaker 2: of course, had a huge October.
- 24:42Speaker 1: When it comes to good news.
- 24:44Speaker 2: I mean they had Biddle jumping in. You've got the
- 24:47Speaker 2: Korea Cloud, which is one of their big markets.
- 24:50Speaker 1: Off the grid breaks.
- 24:51Speaker 2: A new all time high with Steam. I mean, they've
- 24:53Speaker 2: got gaming side that did the stripe thing with Crypto
- 24:56Speaker 2: on ramps. I mean, Jesus, this is like a line
- 24:59Speaker 2: list deals. Why is Avalanche not just eating the charts alive?
- 25:05Speaker 2: What's going on here?
- 25:08Speaker 4: I think that even with Solana right now, getting these
- 25:12Speaker 4: you know, good news pieces is the best thing to
- 25:14Speaker 4: compare that both of them to would be something like XRP.
- 25:17Speaker 4: And the reason I say that is for years and
- 25:19Speaker 4: years XRP was flatlining at that fifty cent mark, getting
- 25:23Speaker 4: partnership after partnership, deal after deal. You know, great news
- 25:27Speaker 4: sometimes would spike the price a little bit, but ultimately
- 25:29Speaker 4: it was just kind of consolidating for a while until
- 25:31Speaker 4: we had that major breakout. Now Solana definitely does not
- 25:35Speaker 4: look like Avalanche, but Avalanche does look like XRP to me.
- 25:40Speaker 4: Not to state that, you know, we could see this
- 25:41Speaker 4: you know, monstrous seven or ten X move out of here,
- 25:44Speaker 4: but we've just got this very large consolidation area. I mentioned,
- 25:48Speaker 4: you know, earlier when we had a little deviation outside
- 25:51Speaker 4: of our range and we got back in, we got
- 25:52Speaker 4: that big wick down. I noted this one level that
- 25:55Speaker 4: we had left from like a year and a half ago,
- 25:57Speaker 4: and it's just always a good thing for me. It'd
- 25:59Speaker 4: always looked again when looking at like is it a
- 26:01Speaker 4: great time to buy or anything like that, I always
- 26:03Speaker 4: leave a little dry powder on the side for any
- 26:05Speaker 4: kind of crazy stink bids down in these crazy areas.
- 26:09Speaker 4: I didn't purchase that level personally, but anyways, that's one
- 26:12Speaker 4: of those was we just got to wake down to
- 26:13Speaker 4: a key level. There he bounce right back up, but
- 26:15Speaker 4: we're basically just holding into this range still. So very
- 26:18Speaker 4: similar to again, looking at some of the positive news
- 26:22Speaker 4: events that are circulating around the just you know bitcoin
- 26:25Speaker 4: right now, or the rate cuts in general or things
- 26:27Speaker 4: like that. I think that the news right now is
- 26:30Speaker 4: gearing up for some bigger moves coming. I think that
- 26:33Speaker 4: just right now, we're just kind of consolidating for Bitcoin,
- 26:35Speaker 4: finishing up that big move from you know, up to
- 26:37Speaker 4: one twenty six. The all coins, I think will get
- 26:40Speaker 4: the time when they can see some upside here avalanches
- 26:43Speaker 4: at the point where like for me, if I'm ever
- 26:45Speaker 4: looking to add on any kind of risk, it's gonna
- 26:47Speaker 4: be when we're at the low side of you know,
- 26:49Speaker 4: accumulation here, even if we have the risk again to drop.
- 26:53Speaker 4: I mean that just is what we all have to
- 26:54Speaker 4: always be prepared for. But when you're looking at something like, yeah,
- 26:59Speaker 4: this this is something and that's literally at the low
- 27:01Speaker 4: side with a it's just littered with key levels above
- 27:04Speaker 4: that doesn't even get us back to all time highs.
- 27:06Speaker 4: I mean, these are this is like five and six
- 27:08Speaker 4: hundred percent opportunities here with just waiting on a big break.
- 27:13Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that it's just consolidating.
- 27:15Speaker 4: Honestly, we're in this overall range and I don't see
- 27:18Speaker 4: anything wrong with it at the moment.
- 27:21Speaker 2: If you're right, Paul, there are some gems out there
- 27:25Speaker 2: right now. If you're right, and we see a reversal
- 27:28Speaker 2: in this market, there are some gems outside of just
- 27:31Speaker 2: Bitcoin and eight. I mean, if you look into Avax, Unicewop,
- 27:34Speaker 2: et cetera, a handful of other tokens that are kind
- 27:37Speaker 2: of going in this direction. I want to before we
- 27:40Speaker 2: let you go, I want to jump into one meme
- 27:41Speaker 2: token which we've you know, we've talked about before we've
- 27:45Speaker 2: had Luca on the show, and that is the fact
- 27:48Speaker 2: that Luca was talking about announcing something this fall and
- 27:53Speaker 2: with pengu If you guys don't know, this is probably
- 27:56Speaker 2: one of the better meme coins out there in terms
- 27:58Speaker 2: of the brand awareness and the community.
- 28:02Speaker 1: When you look at the chart.
- 28:03Speaker 2: On a meme coin like this, because this has kind
- 28:05Speaker 2: of got I won't say that it's as big as doge,
- 28:07Speaker 2: but he's definitely gunning for Doge.
- 28:09Speaker 1: What do you think.
- 28:10Speaker 2: About this token? If you look at the chart right now,
- 28:13Speaker 2: how would you play this one?
- 28:15Speaker 4: So when looking at pretty much anything at this point,
- 28:20Speaker 4: you know, everything's kind of given the same vibe. Right,
- 28:22Speaker 4: it's down into the right least short term here. It
- 28:26Speaker 4: depends on how you want to look at it though,
- 28:28Speaker 4: right Like, so this is I got the information on
- 28:29Speaker 4: Peaninggoo going back to December of twenty twenty four. Not
- 28:32Speaker 4: sure when it exactly came out. This is just the
- 28:34Speaker 4: finance chart. But overall, you know, you've got a nice
- 28:37Speaker 4: little rounded formation. We got a pop, we got our
- 28:39Speaker 4: little liquidation pool all the way back taking out the lows,
- 28:42Speaker 4: and we're still just pretty much consolidating in this region here.
- 28:45Speaker 4: So I'm just going to take a look at some things,
- 28:47Speaker 4: just kind of live here with you. And so here
- 28:50Speaker 4: we've got the overall range, which is a little bit
- 28:53Speaker 4: wider to look too, just because it's only got a
- 28:55Speaker 4: little bit of information. I've already bounced right off of
- 28:58Speaker 4: our you know, big key volume area, which is exactly
- 29:00Speaker 4: where we wick down to that point of control. So
- 29:03Speaker 4: we're trading in the in the you know this range
- 29:05Speaker 4: now and pretty much at the middle. So you almost
- 29:07Speaker 4: want to see us hold that region previous resistance, you know,
- 29:10Speaker 4: turn that into support right here.
- 29:12Speaker 3: Uh and yeah.
- 29:13Speaker 4: I mean aside from that, I mean I'm looking I
- 29:15Speaker 4: would imagine that as long as we can hold this
- 29:17Speaker 4: region here, you've got some ground to recover. If we
- 29:20Speaker 4: start to look for some potential you know upside moves
- 29:23Speaker 4: here where we could see is basically an attack back
- 29:27Speaker 4: at the highs again, you know, and then if we
- 29:29Speaker 4: think get things get really going here, you could get
- 29:31Speaker 4: a real big push. But I would just say, as
- 29:33Speaker 4: far as any kind of support or any kind of
- 29:35Speaker 4: things you want to see hold, I'd like to see
- 29:36Speaker 4: where we are pretty much right now, just below one
- 29:39Speaker 4: point oh one seven uh, to just hold here, look
- 29:43Speaker 4: to see if we can get back up to that
- 29:44Speaker 4: point oh three cent and then from there. Yeah, I
- 29:46Speaker 4: think we could really get a decent little run out
- 29:47Speaker 4: of this. But doesn't look any different as far as uh,
- 29:51Speaker 4: you know, to anything else and then honestly taking out
- 29:54Speaker 4: that little wick right there, it doesn't you know, it
- 29:55Speaker 4: looks a lot decently healthy at the moment as long
- 29:58Speaker 4: as we're holding above here, because we're not just getting
- 30:00Speaker 4: this big pump and then immediately giving it right back.
- 30:03Speaker 4: So a lot of times that's what you want to
- 30:04Speaker 4: see to just kind of showcase some strength there. So yeah,
- 30:06Speaker 4: I mean, it doesn't look terrible, but like anything else
- 30:09Speaker 4: right now, it's just going to be a little scary
- 30:12Speaker 4: to get involved with it because of the have the
- 30:13Speaker 4: market's pull in here.
- 30:14Speaker 3: But yeah, I think it's something that worth taking a
- 30:16Speaker 3: look at.
- 30:17Speaker 2: Remember, guys, this is not Financial Advice. Paul and I
- 30:20Speaker 2: are giving you a breakdown of how we see the markets,
- 30:22Speaker 2: and there's narratives behind this. Many people would say, hey,
- 30:25Speaker 2: there's fundamentals on some of these projects, all those kind
- 30:28Speaker 2: of things. But I don't think the market cares about
- 30:30Speaker 2: fundamentals right now, Otherwise they'd be looking at the.
- 30:33Speaker 1: Macro side of things.
- 30:34Speaker 2: I think that they are spooked and we're dealing with
- 30:38Speaker 2: too many balls.
- 30:40Speaker 1: In the air at one time.
- 30:41Speaker 2: You've got China still in the air, the government shut
- 30:44Speaker 2: down still in the air, the crypto bill is in
- 30:46Speaker 2: the air. Everything is in the air, and we don't
- 30:49Speaker 2: have a lock on anything. And now you've got interest
- 30:52Speaker 2: rates in the air, which we thought we had a
- 30:54Speaker 2: lock on that, but no. So all of this definitely
- 30:59Speaker 2: goes into a riskier November. November up or down.
- 31:07Speaker 3: I would say, up, all right, so we.
- 31:10Speaker 2: Are bullish November from Paul coming in hot Listen, guys,
- 31:15Speaker 2: if you're not following data dashover on YouTube, make sure
- 31:18Speaker 2: and do that right here.
- 31:19Speaker 1: Here is his place.
- 31:21Speaker 2: I'm actually logged in on one of my other accounts,
- 31:23Speaker 2: so I'm gonna subscribe.
- 31:24Speaker 1: For you right there.
- 31:25Speaker 2: Bumping over five hundred and eleven thousand subscribers breaking down
- 31:30Speaker 2: Crypto the Guru himself. Thank you for coming in today.
- 31:35Speaker 1: We appreciate it.
- 31:36Speaker 3: Always a pleasure, Paul. You guys have a great day.
- 31:39Speaker 2: Okay, you guys know what to do. Get into the
- 31:41Speaker 2: Diamond Circle. That's our own private group that's free to you,
- 31:44Speaker 2: and all you have to do is hit the link
- 31:45Speaker 2: down below. Follow me out there on X at Paul Baron.
- 31:48Speaker 2: We'll catch you next time right here on The Paul
- 31:50Speaker 2: Baron Show.