Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 228: Cattle Market Holds Strong as Heifer Retention Rises: What It Means for 2026 with Dan and Samantha

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228: Cattle Market Holds Strong as Heifer Retention Rises: What It Means for 2026 with Dan and Samantha · CattleUSA Daily

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  We are breaking down the markets once again with Dan and
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  Samantha, bringing all of the current reports of what is
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  happening in the cattle market to all of you listeners in the
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  industry today. We are breaking down everything
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  that we have seen over the past week, some thoughts that we have
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  about demand, about consumerism and just a few other things as
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  we go into this holiday season and round out talking about the
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  grain markets as well. Without further ado, let's go
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  ahead and hop into this episode with Dan and Samantha.
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  But before we do, if you are listening on YouTube, take a
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  second to make sure you hit that subscribe button and like this
• 0:34
  episode. And if you're watching on any of
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  our other podcast platforms, you guys know the drill at this
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  point. Make sure you're following the
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  show and it take a second to go rate and review it as well.
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  And let's go hear from Dan and Saman.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily Podcast, your go to source for
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  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
• 0:56
  updates shaping agriculture today.
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  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
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  agriculture here to keep you informed and connected.
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  Now let's dive into today's episode.
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  Dan, Samantha, welcome back to the podcast.
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  How are you guys doing? Samantha, you have some exciting
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  news and exciting update on why you weren't with us last week if
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  you would like to share. Yes, I have a new baby.
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  His name is Wyatt Ted Wright, so very happy to have the addition
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  to the family. It was a nice little Christmas
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  present, so we're doing good. Came at the perfect time too,
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  right? Like not on Christmas.
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  So he can still have a December birthday, but he wasn't a
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  Christmas Eve Christmas present and you can still get back home
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  and enjoy Christmas with the family and all the things like
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  that. So.
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  Yeah, exactly. Dan how's life in Iowa?
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  Life is great. Nothing is exciting and bad, but
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  yeah, it's warmed up a little. We lost, lost our Arctic blast,
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  so it's going to be great. Christmas life is good.
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  Absolutely. Well, who wants to take it away
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  and kind of give us a rundown on what we've been seeing on the
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  markets the past week? I'm a little rusty, but I'll go
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  for it. We had a Catalan feed report
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  come out last week. I think reports came out pretty
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  bullish. Catalog feed were 2% back from a
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  year ago, placements 11% back from a year ago.
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  Marketing took a huge hit, 12% back from a year ago.
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  Lowest they've been in 30 years. That adds quite a bit of a
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  bullish tone. Being a couple days away from
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  Christmas, I don't know how much it'll affect the markets.
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  Not expecting to see huge moves. Traders are starting to gear
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  down for the holidays, but we'll see when the board opens up here
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  on Monday. I think the biggest question
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  everyone wants answers to right now is, you know, where are we
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  going to be come first of the year.
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  Consumer demand is still a little bit of a question mark.
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  We've seen some last minute holiday buying.
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  I think that could fade off before the next seasonal push.
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  Last couple months consumers have learned more towards the
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  ground beef. A little more uncommon for this
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  type of year, but they're aiming towards those cheaper cuts.
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  So the question becomes priority, does beef stay at the
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  top of the list or does discretionary dollars pull it
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  elsewhere? Still haven't heard anything new
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  on the South border reopening. You got the tariffs off
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  Brazilian beef. A little bit of an increase
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  reliance on imports to help supplement load domestic supply
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  I think. No I'm cool.
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  No mandatory country of origin labeling also puts up black hole
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  and transport, apparently. You've got that.
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  That plays into it. Her numbers are down.
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  They'll take a while to rebuild. But I mean, people have kept a
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  big chunk of heifers back this year.
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  So it's still going to take a while for us to see that effect.
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  And if we stay close to that logic, I could see us holding
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  steady into the next year. But I think it could really go
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  either way. So cash trade on fats was light
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  last week. I think they're going to need
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  more inventory soon, especially as Slaughter's been up.
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  We nearly killed 600,000 head the week prior to last week and
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  then we were 9000 back last week from that.
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  So numbers are still pretty decent.
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  Hopefully, you know, we'll welcome some more competitive
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  bids in the near future as Packers start to burn through
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  that inventory. Feeder cattle market, seeing the
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  auction barns hold cash really steady.
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  I mean, they've been strong since Thanksgiving.
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  We're seeing a lot of new highs. Cash really hasn't cared much
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  about what the board's been doing.
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  Well, luckily we've been up, but there's been times we've been
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  down and Cash didn't care. So got a few days before
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  Christmas. LRP will be available.
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  So if you're thinking about pulling the trigger, you know,
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  get in touch with one of us. I know it's easy to run a ride
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  the rallies and then then protect on them.
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  But I've talked to a few guys that sold their cattle towards
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  the beginning of November and caught the brunt of those media
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  headlines that sent us free falling.
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  So if your marketing window misses those highs or falls in
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  the gaps in between, having coverage can make, you know, a
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  world of difference. All the momentum we initially
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  had leading into November, it fell off.
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  You know, after all those sell offs, nobody expected to get
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  indemnified, but I'm sure plenty did.
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  If prices rally, that's great. Take full advantage of it, you
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  know, But if they tank, you're at least restored back to that
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  floor price. So common denominator certainty
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  in this industry is so few and far between.
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  I mean, one of the biggest stressors for producers is
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  hoping everything pencils out by sale day.
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  We gamble everything, whether it's markets, weather,
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  predators, media headlines, government intervention,
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  drought, you know, all the things.
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  So all things that are out of our control.
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  If you can put one thing in control and keep, you know, you
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  can have an actual fixed price into the equation.
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  Utilize that. Give yourself some room to plan.
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  Absolutely, absolutely. I couldn't agree more.
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  Dan, what are your thoughts on the past week?
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  I'm glad she shared all that. I got nothing.
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  Now I can go to go on Christmas vacation.
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  This is awesome now. Very, very well said.
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  Yeah, 100% true. It's a lot of uncertainties is
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  the big thing as we go into 2026.
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  And if history repeats itself, normally years that end in a six
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  are not all that friendly to cattle.
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  But it's Christmas week. We're in a great mood.
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  We want to be optimistic. So yeah, last week saw a big
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  jump, specifically Wednesday, Thursday, Friday in boxes that
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  was loved by those prime ribs. Late, late, late buying some
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  guys, somebody got caught with the pants down.
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  So I'd love to see that little push into the end of the
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  holidays. So the other thing worth
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  mentioning here is just recently, you know, it's been
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  delayed because everybody's making their cattle so much
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  bigger and they're feeding them longer to fight those
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  high-priced feeders. But we're starting to see the
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  data come in pepper slaughter is dropping proving that hey, we
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  retained a few efforts with blast strings.
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  We of course, I mean you got ferish and bullish side of that,
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  right. It's bearish long term because
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  we're increasing the hurt. It's full of short term because
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  there's less numbers than speed yards.
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  So with those numbers coming in, like I said, October, we were
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  down a touch. We we're not quite to 30% of
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  total slaughter. If you look at at November once
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  again down a touch from last year, I would say 2% it and same
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  expecting the same here in December.
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  So Long story short, there was a little bit of retention here
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  that that not a lot of people talked about.
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  There's very likely going to be a little bit more as we go into
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  2026. Ranchers, farmers, it doesn't
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  matter if if you're in that business or in AG at all, Tax
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  problems are solved by retaining heckers.
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  So expecting to see a little bit more of that 2026, which like I
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  said, short term it helps stabilize this market.
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  But as a cow cat producer, we need to be looking at those, the
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  birds, looking at setting that floor.
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  A lot of heifers got retained in 2015 as well.
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  Market still a lot of bed, as Samantha mentioned, because they
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  had demand, you know, a lot of unknowns there.
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  So, yeah, still optimistic though.
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  There's no big wall of cattle coming at us in the next short
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  term. So cash becomes king again.
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  Let's see what we can do here. You know, it's if we roll this
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  calendar over and get some some full kill weeks.
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  Absolutely, absolutely. Samantha, do you have any
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  comments on that? I agree.
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  I think that was well said, yeah.
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  Yeah, we've definitely been seeing a lot of volatility in
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  the last year. It is encouraging to see heifer
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  retention come. It's been something we've kind
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  of touched on, talked about quite a bit this year that Dan,
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  you mentioned early in the year that we've been seeing some
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  indicators of it. And so it's encouraging to get
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  to the end of the year and be like, no, like we, we really did
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  see this. We really are seeing some of
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  that heifer retention. We are seeing some of that herd
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  rebuilding come back because I know that that has been a big
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  concern for a lot of people within the cattle industry,
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  especially as we I have been talking on here a lot about our
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  domestic product and really leaning into US beef and all of
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  these things. And in order to do that, we have
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  to have heifers. We have to have a herd that is
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  able to sustain the demand that we are seeing from our consumers
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  and just all of the different things that are pulling at the
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  cattle industry right now. It is encouraging that we're
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  able to go into the end of the year and say, hey, at the end of
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  the day, we're seeing some heifers get retained.
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  And so hopefully we can see some herd building numbers go up over
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  the next few months and over the next year and go into 2026 on a
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  strong note. But Daniel also made a really
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  good point of looking at those deferreds, looking at other
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  things that we don't want to go into 2026 in the market, just
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  absolutely drop out from underneath us and be back in the
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  same situation that we were at the beginning of 2025 where we
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  were seeing a lot of people not retain their heifers.
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  And that can be anything from market concerns or weather
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  concerns or anything else in between.
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  So I know that right now it's the market is doing what it
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  needs to to help us maintain these heifers.
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  I'm hoping that the weather maintains what it needs to as we
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  go into spring and as we go into summer, that these people are
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  able to validate continuing to keep these animals on grass as
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  we go into it. Need those cows.
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  There's no way around it. We need the calf factory, and we
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  need more of them. I mean, it'd be great if we kept
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  the border shut forever. Pushes domestic Hurd back to
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  32,000,000 that. But yeah, it's a it's good to
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  see. Honestly, I'm I'm happy to see
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  it. Dan, you would be happy if the
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  border stayed closed forever and if the government shut back
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  down, because then you wouldn't be getting any reports.
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  Right, that would be great, but the market, do the market
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  things, let the cash rule absolutely.
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  How do we make that happen? Go.
• 11:23
  We're going to get ourselves put on some watch watch list because
• 11:26
  of that. Dan, you better watch it.
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  Yeah, All right. No comment.
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  Oh, my gosh. OK.
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  What's happening in the great markets, Dan?
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  What's the update there? Quiet typical holiday trade, you
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  know, it's, it's hard to get anything to move much low
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  volume. There's nothing coming out.
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  I mean, everybody's looking forward to the January, January
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  report and hoping that the USDA corrects that yield that's been
• 11:56
  way too high for the last year. But grains have been pretty much
• 12:01
  sideways range bound. If we could get corn to bounce
• 12:05
  up above that 200 day, it'd certainly help.
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  Going to be a struggle with wheat holding us back.
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  So we could get wheat to get some fire under its butt.
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  I think corns got a shot. Beans.
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  I mean, all you ever hear is talk about China.
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  Like I said, the next two weeks are going to be slow, so it'll
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  be interesting as we get into next month though, weather
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  change, like I said, we're in a warm up here for the next couple
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  weeks. If that goes back to the winter
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  blast, you know, that could be a factor.
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  Energies could also stay, you know, stabilize, find a bottom
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  here and maybe get a bounce if we get that winter blast back.
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  But energies have been struggling.
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  It's hard for me to get wildly, wildly bullish grains until
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  energies build a base and start working higher.
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  So don't like seeing that oil in the five 50s.
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  Good for the consumer though. Very true, very true.
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  Any other things that we didn't head on today as far as the
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  market goes that we need to cover today?
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  Dan, do you have any rants for the for the group today?
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  No, I'm good. I was going to go on a rant
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  about Santa Claus but I know he's a little stressed out this
• 13:17
  week so I thought I'd leave him alone and say that after the few
• 13:20
  years. My only comment about Santa
• 13:22
  Claus is he better be delivering some prime rib to everyone's
• 13:26
  houses and maybe some grilling supplies, maybe new Traeger.
• 13:31
  That was my rant, yeah. In regards to those rants, I got
• 13:35
  to ask when you refer to Kyle in your market commentaries, where
• 13:39
  did that string from? Good question.
• 13:42
  Yeah. So Adam, Shane and I feed some
• 13:44
  cattle together and Kyle is up in Northwest Iowa.
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  So we fed cattle at Kyle's place and and Kyle was partnered on a
• 13:51
  pen with us one time and I got really, really bullish cash one
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  week and I think cattle was too. And the buyer stopped out.
• 14:01
  They looked at the cattle. They were all over them.
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  You know, they wanted to buy and they were ready to go.
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  And I'm like, Kyle, don't you dare sell those cattle.
• 14:08
  Put a padlock on that gate. We're not selling them.
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  This market's going higher. So it it's just specifically
• 14:15
  talking to cash cattle. When I get bullish cash, it's
• 14:19
  Kyle locked the gate, don't sell.
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  There's there's some upcoming so just no guarantee.
• 14:26
  That's a great question, Samantha, because I've always
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  wondered the same thing. Yeah, yeah.
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  Because there's some market lingo I don't know.
• 14:33
  About no, no, Kyle's a good guy, but cattle up there.
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  And actually I yelled at him. Kyle locked the gate with a few
• 14:40
  other choice words in there. So we're awesome.
• 14:44
  Yeah, if you, if you pick up on that on the e-mail, just know
• 14:47
  I'm I'm bullish cash. That's amazing.
• 14:50
  Great question, Samantha. I've always wondered the same
• 14:52
  thing and always forgot to ask. So the more you learn, the more
• 14:56
  you learn. I appreciate, Dan, that you have
• 14:58
  such a great sense of humor to bring Kyle into things and
• 15:02
  brighten our days a little bit. Whenever you're yelling at Kyle
• 15:05
  and our emails, it's quite enjoyable.
• 15:08
  And the one the few people that that actually read it, Kyle and
• 15:11
  Samantha. I read it too.
• 15:15
  All right. Yeah, absolutely.
• 15:19
  Boy, oh boy. Samantha, do you have any
• 15:21
  closing thoughts for us today? Get on our market commentary,
• 15:25
  read Dan's Yelling at Kyle reports.
• 15:28
  They're awesome. They're great.
• 15:30
  Yes, absolutely, and I will have that link down below so that if
• 15:33
  you would like to read Dan's Yelling at Kyle reports, they
• 15:37
  are going to be down below where you can sign up for those emails
• 15:40
  and check all of that out. We hope you all have an amazing
• 15:44
  Christmas, a great rest of your week and we will be back next
• 15:49
  week again to give you guys a final year end report as we
• 15:54
  round out 2025 S. Have a very Merry Christmas,
• 15:57
  spend some time with your family, eat beef and have a
• 15:59
  great rest of your week y'all. We'll see you later.