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The downfall of Victorian premier Jacinta Allan · The Morning Edition

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  S1: After speaking with my colleagues overnight, I have made the
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  S1: difficult decision to step aside as leader of the Victorian
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  S1: State Parliamentary Labor Party and as Premier of Victoria.
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  S2: Victorian politics is in turmoil. On Tuesday morning, Jacinta Allan
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  S2: stood down as the 49th Premier of Victoria. Her resignation
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  S2: came after more than 25 years in the Victorian Parliament.
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  S2: I'm Benjamin Price, guest hosting today's bonus episode of The
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  S2: Morning Edition. Today, state political reporter Kieron Rooney on the
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  S2: Victorian Premier's resignation and what might come next. Kieran, thanks
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  S2: for joining us.
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  S3: Great to be here.
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  S2: Get us up to speed. Why did this happen to
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  S2: Jacinta Allan?
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  S3: I guess it would be safe to say that this
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  S3: has been in the works for a while. I think
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  S3: murmurings about Jacinta Allan's leadership have been on the cards
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  S3: since pretty much before the 2025 federal election. Uh, some
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  S3: people within the party were sort of saying that if
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  S3: labor did badly in Victoria at a federal level, that
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  S3: might be an opportunity to remove Jacinta. I've made some
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  S3: concerns that the party was tanking. Obviously, the Albanese actually
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  S3: gained seats in Victoria, which is off a pretty high
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  S3: water mark already. So that really brought us into a
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  S3: lot of time. Um, what we found in the last
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  S3: year is that polling consistently shows that the Aylwin government
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  S3: is not only unpopular, but Jacinta Allan as Premier was
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  S3: incredibly unpopular. The Resolve Political Monitor most recently had her
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  S3: likability at -36. And historically that's a very hard position
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  S3: to win an election from. Not many leaders, uh, can
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  S3: ever win from that space. Uh, alongside that, you had, uh,
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  S3: the ages and the Sydney Morning Herald and Financial Review
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  S3: in 60 minutes, all reporting on building bad a look
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  S3: into corruption of the big build in Victoria, the massive
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  S3: infrastructure agenda that has defined the labor government here. Uh,
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  S3: as that reporting has continued and exposed more and more wrongdoing, uh,
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  S3: it has really become a bit of a lodestone on
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  S3: this government. And Alan, as the responsible minister for transport infrastructure,
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  S3: has been really sort of tied to that. So as
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  S3: has been more and more momentum and support for a
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  S3: royal commission, she has dug in, and that has also
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  S3: turned a lot of her MPs against her. So you
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  S3: had this sort of growing sentiment of dissatisfaction with the Premier.
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  S3: She wasn't able to sort of shake questions about the
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  S3: big build corruption. She wasn't able to sort of get
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  S3: away from it. Her popularity was going down and labor
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  S3: MPs were doorknocking ahead of the election and getting more
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  S3: and more concerned that they were about to be booted
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  S3: from their seats. And once MPs were worried about their
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  S3: electoral future, then the leader suddenly in a lot of trouble.
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  S2: At the same time, though, she has had an extraordinary career.
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  S2: She was incredibly young when she was elected to Parliament.
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  S2: She was just 25 years old. Can you take us
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  S2: through some of her achievements?
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  S3: Yeah, well, I mean, for one, being one of the
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  S3: youngest ever elected parliamentarians, she was there when Steve Bracks
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  S3: swept into power, and she was very representative of his
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  S3: ability to win back those regional centres in Victoria, which
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  S3: saw Jeff Kennett turfed out of office a lot earlier
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  S3: than people thought. And, you know, she's always been tied
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  S3: to sort of the Bracks Brumby era, which is seen
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  S3: as a pretty responsible, good government until it was elected
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  S3: out in 2010. Um, she was promoted to the ministry
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  S3: pretty early. Um, and always seems like a really good operator. Uh,
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  S3: when Daniel Andrews became premier and she was elected, she
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  S3: was given the transport infrastructure portfolio for a good reason
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  S3: because that was their big agenda, the removal of level crossings,
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  S3: the development of the Metro Tunnel and the Westgate Tunnel. Uh,
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  S3: they're all big projects and really difficult to manage. And
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  S3: she was overseeing them and delivering them in a way
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  S3: that was really impressive to the Victorian public. And people
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  S3: credit that level crossing removal program as instrumental in the
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  S3: government's fortunes. Um, it showed people, you know, showed the
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  S3: government was delivering things for people in their own backyard.
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  S3: And she was essentially in charge of that in a
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  S3: big way. So, uh, she has to be credited with,
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  S3: you know, that infrastructure agenda, um, quite significantly. And even
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  S3: as Premier, she was the Premier who oversaw and introduced
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  S3: treaty legislation, which will be seen as a pretty historic
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  S3: moment in Victorian history. She has led an inquiry into
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  S3: women's health, something that she highlighted today in her resignation
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  S3: speech as something really important to her. She really staked
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  S3: a lot of her reputation and personal beliefs in getting
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  S3: that inquiry up and doing something a bit different.
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  S2: It's really interesting because on the one hand, MPs in
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  S2: the government seem like they're worried about their own seats.
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  S2: But at the same time, Jacinta Allan was part of
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  S2: the election winning machine that steamrolled the electorate. And that
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  S2: was partly thanks to the level crossing removal program and
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  S2: other projects.
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  S3: Yeah, it just goes to show that in politics, um,
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  S3: loyalty only lasts so long. I guess you're right. Like
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  S3: I would say, her and Dan were instrumental in their
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  S3: election victories and that that big build agenda, that sort
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  S3: of getting it done mantra was totally fundamental to the
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  S3: government's cell, I think. Um, I guess the, the perplexing
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  S3: situation is that when the thing that you're best known
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  S3: for getting on and delivering things becomes, um, associated in
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  S3: a negative light. Then suddenly all that goodwill you've built
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  S3: and burned suddenly gets lost overnight. So I think that's
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  S3: why we've seen this move so quickly and transform so quickly.
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  S2: So now that she has resigned as Premier, who's taken over.
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  S3: Yeah. So the Deputy Premier, Ben Carroll, has just been
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  S3: sworn in as Premier. Uh, after a pretty tense caucus
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  S3: meeting where there was still some Labor Party infighting. But
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  S3: he's now the leader. He has been the education minister.
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  S3: He's been his deputy from the moment that she was
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  S3: sworn in in September 2023. And he's promised immediately to
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  S3: call a royal commission into the construction sector. He's promised
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  S3: to be more focused on the economy. And he's gone, um,
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  S3: to the crime issue as well. He's promising a lot
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  S3: more policies on community safety. So he's acknowledging that the
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  S3: crime issue may still be hurting the government quite a bit.
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  S2: So he's sort of hit the road running, as it were.
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  S3: Yeah. He's clearly been thinking about what he wanted to
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  S3: announce and his whole pitch is a new direction. Um,
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  S3: he did a video and he did a press conference
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  S3: with was saying it's clear that Victorians want a new direction. Now,
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  S3: one could argue that, you know, that's what the election
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  S3: is for. But he's decided, I think I'm going to
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  S3: get ahead of that change and and deliver a new
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  S3: direction myself. So he had to come out really strong
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  S3: with something. And he decided that that one thing for
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  S3: his first day is going to be a royal commission.
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  S3: And that really sets him apart from Alan, who was
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  S3: really making an effort to dig in and not call
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  S3: for a royal commission. And even in the party room,
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  S3: as she resigned, she was urging her colleagues not to
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  S3: not to support a royal commission. But, um, she was
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  S3: losing that argument and she has lost that argument.
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  S2: Well, you've you've just raised the election in November. What
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  S2: does all this, in your opinion, do to Labor's chances
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  S2: of holding government in the election?
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  S3: Well, the negative side would be a government that has
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  S3: seen multiple opposition leaders in Victoria. It has become recently
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  S3: a sport that every year we get a new Liberal leader.
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  S3: The coalition's been in chaos basically since 2014. And so
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  S3: labor has always made a big brand identity of being
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  S3: the party of responsible adults that don't fight internally that
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  S3: don't argue with each other. So to have a pretty
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  S3: bruising leadership contest play out this close to an election
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  S3: kind of undermines that a lot. Uh, one thing working
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  S3: in the government's favor, or I should say Labor's favor,
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  S3: is that, as I said, Jacinta Allan seems to have
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  S3: been really unpopular whether she was fairly associated with Daniel
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  S3: Andrews or some of the other bugbears of government, she
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  S3: just couldn't really shake the negative associations people have with
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  S3: the government at the moment. So Ben Carroll, who's seen
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  S3: as someone who, um, has a bit of friction with
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  S3: Daniel Andrews and had a bit of friction with Jacinta.
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  S3: He has a very good opportunity to differentiate himself and say,
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  S3: I'm not those people. And he made that actually, that
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  S3: point in his press conference, one of his opening remarks was,
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  S3: I'm not Daniel Andrews, I'm not Jacinta Allan. I'm going
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  S3: to do something different. And that's a really good message
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  S3: for Victorian Labor to be able to sell. If at
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  S3: a time when they're not doing well poll wise, that
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  S3: gives them a whole new suite of policies and messages
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  S3: that they can give to the Victorian public. You know,
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  S3: it's like starting from square one, which has its own challenges,
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  S3: but it also creates a lot of opportunities.
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  S2: So what did Jacinta Allan say about her political future?
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  S2: Is she quitting politics and Parliament altogether, or is that
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  S2: not quite clear yet?
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  S3: It's not quite clear yet. She didn't take any questions
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  S3: at the press conference, so we're still waiting on those answers.
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  S3: She wasn't in question time today. She left Parliament and
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  S3: has gone back to Bendigo, where she lives. Uh, the
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  S3: one thing she did say in the press conference is
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  S3: that she's looking forward to spending a lot more time
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  S3: with her kids. Whether that means that, you know, remain
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  S3: in politics or quit is to be seen. If she
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  S3: quits Parliament tomorrow, it won't have an effect on the
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  S3: election in the sense that they'll there won't be a
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  S3: by election. There'll be an election in November. Uh, one
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  S3: thing that should probably be worth noting as well is
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  S3: that Senator Allan was under a lot of pressure in
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  S3: her seat. There were some real concerns that One Nation
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  S3: and the nationals could win that seat off her. So
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  S3: if she does contest again, she'll be finding a pretty
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  S3: difficult battle to, uh, to hold on to that Bendigo
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  S3: East electorate.
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  S2: So, Kieran, can you talk us through the national implications
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  S2: of what's kind of just played out in Victoria?
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  S3: Yeah. Well, one, the one thing that I guess is
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  S3: missing from this whole conversation is that this is looming
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  S3: as the first truly three way contest in state politics.
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  S3: For a long time or in Australian politics, you could
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  S3: draw some comparisons to the Queensland elections in the 90s. But,
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  S3: you know, Labor and Liberal people both agree that this
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  S3: is going to be a proper three party contest with
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  S3: one nation, uh, for one nation, that represents a massive
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  S3: opportunity for them to prove that they are not just
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  S3: a grievance party, but a party capable of winning seats and, um,
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  S3: forming an actual identity across the nation. They've got a
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  S3: couple of MPs in South Australia as well. So, you know,
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  S3: for One nation this is really important. But interestingly, they
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  S3: don't have a leader and they don't have any candidates
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  S3: at the moment. So yeah, it's a bit of a
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  S3: riddle that one. But the other I guess thing to
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  S3: consider as well is, uh, traditionally federal governments that are, um,
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  S3: from a different party to the state governments do well. So, uh,
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  S3: a labor federal government would sort of, you know, they
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  S3: would never admit this, but they would probably welcome a
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  S3: liberal state government or a one nation state government down here, one,
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  S3: because it creates, you know, a point of tension for
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  S3: them to test their values. And also because if there is,
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  S3: as Labour say, the opportunity for a liberal one nation government,
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  S3: then if that's extremely chaotic and dysfunctional, then Anthony Albanese
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  S3: will have that sort of attack message ready. He'll have
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  S3: an example to point to when he goes to the
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  S3: polls next to say, see, this is what happens if
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  S3: you vote for these people, and here's why you should
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  S3: stick with what you know.
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  S2: Convenient enemies. The more things change, the more they stay
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  S2: the same.
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  S3: Yeah, exactly. It's, uh. Yeah, it kind of feels like
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  S3: we're going through this weird repeat of, uh, of 20
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  S3: or 30 years ago, in some ways.
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  S2: Well, thank you very much for joining us on The
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  S2: Morning Edition. Kieran.
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  S3: Pleasure. Thank you for having me.
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  S2: Today's episode was produced by Tammy Mills, and our podcasts
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