Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Geoffrey Miller: International Relations Expert on Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to New Zealand

Transcript

Geoffrey Miller: International Relations Expert on Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to New Zealand · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Our relationship with China is going to get another close
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: inspection this week with the arrival of the Chinese premier,
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: first official visit since twenty seventeen. Jeffrey Miller, international Relations expert,
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: back with this, Jeffrey, very good morning to you.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: Good morning Mane.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: He's also sweeping through Australia. So this is a region
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: in the spotlight as far as the Chinese are concerned.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Indeed, and it's massive, as you said, the first visit
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: by a Chinese premier to New Zealand since twenty seventeen,
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: that's a very long time and it follows Wang Yi's
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: visit back in March the Chinese Foreign Minister. So certainly
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: Australia is now being courted again by China after all
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: their troubles. But New Zealand is getting in first. He's
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: coming to New Zealand first, Lee Chang, and.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: He's bringing a least to the Australian leag The journey
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: was a large business delegation. Is it about business or
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: is it about the geopolitics and things like August?
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Well, outwardly it's about business. And in the Chinese political system,
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: the Premiere is largely responsible for handling the economy. But
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: I think behind the scenes there's going to be a
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: lot of talk about AUCUST. That certainly wasn't mentioned in
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: Christopher Luxeen's statement yesterday, But it's very clear that China
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: is not happy with the idea of New Zealand joining UCUS,
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: and it's got a chance to put its case to
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: New Zealand because no decisions, final decisions have been made here.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: So I think the behind closed doors will be a
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: lot of talk about August.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: And can they justifiably New Zealand that is, say that
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: we don't know what it is Pillar two and therefore
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: we don't know what we're going to do, and that's
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: a decent enough answer for the Chinese or not.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Yes, I mean that's been the line that New Zealand
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: has been using what for the past year or more,
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: And I guess this still carries some way because New
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: Zealand settle hasn't been officially invited to join. At the
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: same time, I think China's smart enough to know that
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: there are discussions ongoing between New Zealand and the other
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: AUCUST members at some level, and they're very keen to
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: point out all the good reasons why New Zealand should
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: not join, and trying to point out just how important
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: this relationship with China has. Remember it is New Zealand's
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: biggest training partner by far. There's a lot on the line,
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: and they might often New Zealand some further carrots, you know,
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: this talk of upgrading the free trade agreement a little
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: bit further to include services to a greater degree than
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: is currently the case. Visa access could also be on
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: the table. China offers visa free access to around a
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: dozen countries, does not include New Zealand yet, but perhaps
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: New Zealand could be brought into the fold. There will
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: be the first five bys country if that happened.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: All those issues that the Americans of the Europeans worry
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: about EV's and government intervention in the marketplace and tariffs
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: and stuff like that, do we ignore all of that?
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: I don't think we ignore all of that. I think
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: if you look at last week, Tom McLay was off
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: signing agreements for the Indo Pacific Economic Framework, which is
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: very much the US economic vehicle for counter China. So
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: I think it ef factors into the discussions, and I
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: don't think China is probably that happy that New Zealand's
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: signed up to the IPEF as it's called. You know,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: I think all of these issues will be on the
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: table when Lee Chang, the Chinese premier, is here this week.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Okay, the CPTPP, the Chinese want in. Allegedly we're able
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: to in some way, shape or form if we wanted
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: to help. Is any of that true? And can China
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: get into a deal like that?
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Well, New Zealand formally is I guess the depository for
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: the CPTPP because we started the whole arrangement way back when.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: And you know, I think New Zealand's position formally is
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: you know, China meets all the tests. You know, there's
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: no reason why it couldn't be brought into the CPS
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Thank you.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Still if it meets its look.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: It's a long shot, isn't it Because of the other
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: CPTPP members here, and you know, trade has become increasingly politicized,
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: and you know, it's it seems unlikely that China would
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: ever be allowed into this group.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Okay, Jeffrey, good to catch up with you. As always,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: appreciate your expertise. Jeffrey Miller, international relations expert.
• 3:51
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• 3:54
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• 3:57
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