Latest / The Late Debate / The Late Debate | 13 May
Transcript
- 0:06Speaker 1: Well, thanks, Paul. As Paul said, we'll continue to look
- 0:09Speaker 1: at those pictures of waiting for Donald Trump and his
- 0:12Speaker 1: team to exit the plane. Caleb and Denikio, I don't
- 0:15Speaker 1: think you could overstate the importance of this visit to China,
- 0:19Speaker 1: And of course it comes with the Iranian War very
- 0:23Speaker 1: much framing this visit. That war is dragging on a
- 0:26Speaker 1: lot longer than I think most people anticipated, certainly than
- 0:29Speaker 1: Trump wanted. And of course you've also got the looming
- 0:32Speaker 1: deadline China's stated goal of reunification with Taiwan by twenty
- 0:37Speaker 1: twenty seven, and they're just two of the issues framing
- 0:40Speaker 1: this visit. Like I said, it's pretty difficult to overstate
- 0:43Speaker 1: its importance.
- 0:44Speaker 2: Indeed, as Jonathan was noting me, you know that the
- 0:47Speaker 2: first visit by US president in nearly a decade. And
- 0:52Speaker 2: we'll show the grab later. But obviously Trump said before
- 0:55Speaker 2: he boarded the plane to China that you know, we
- 0:57Speaker 2: don't need China's help on this war. But it's hard
- 1:00Speaker 2: to see a situation in which that is not part
- 1:02Speaker 2: of the discussions that he has with Jijingping. I mean,
- 1:06Speaker 2: behind the scenes, the US has absolutely been having those
- 1:09Speaker 2: discussions with China. And he will be hoping to advance them.
- 1:13Speaker 2: That is, Trump will be hoping to advance them with
- 1:16Speaker 2: Xi this week because China is heavily reliant obviously on
- 1:21Speaker 2: oil and fossil fuels that come out of Iran, but
- 1:23Speaker 2: it's also a country that has a close relationship with Iran,
- 1:27Speaker 2: and it's one of the only ones that Trump himself
- 1:31Speaker 2: has a relationship that he could deal with as a
- 1:33Speaker 2: sort of intermediary. So in the process of this war
- 1:38Speaker 2: and Trump's stated aim of trying to end it, as
- 1:41Speaker 2: Jijingping could become an important character. So I have no
- 1:45Speaker 2: doubt that that is part of what they will be
- 1:47Speaker 2: talking about this week, and he'll be hoping to walk
- 1:49Speaker 2: away with some kind of result. Not not necessarily, He's
- 1:53Speaker 2: not going to walk out of there and say, well,
- 1:54Speaker 2: the war is solved, but he would be hoping to
- 1:56Speaker 2: have Gi on side in order to achieve his style goals.
- 2:00Speaker 2: And of course, the other thing that they'll be working
- 2:02Speaker 2: on during this trip, given he has taken some ten
- 2:07Speaker 2: or a dozen business leaders with him, is to try
- 2:10Speaker 2: and do business. Obviously, we've seen in the last year,
- 2:14Speaker 2: the last few months he's been a bit more lenient
- 2:18Speaker 2: on the tariffs that he's had with China. More or less,
- 2:22Speaker 2: they'll be trying to negotiate that that continues. Trump would
- 2:26Speaker 2: want to be in a position, as China would want
- 2:28Speaker 2: to be in a position that those tariffs are not reinstated,
- 2:32Speaker 2: and probably is part of that. Trump will be looking
- 2:35Speaker 2: to have a bit more exporting out of the US
- 2:39Speaker 2: into China. They're probably the main things that they'll be
- 2:41Speaker 2: talking about this week. I don't expect they'll be walking
- 2:43Speaker 2: out with any massive news for us to talk about,
- 2:48Speaker 2: but to have him there talking to Ji, as you say,
- 2:52Speaker 2: the importance of it can't be overstated. Because Trump as
- 2:55Speaker 2: a leader, this is how he does business. I mean,
- 2:58Speaker 2: he is a man can say one thing publicly about someone,
- 3:03Speaker 2: but when he gets in the room with them, you
- 3:05Speaker 2: get that warmth and the respect that he can have
- 3:08Speaker 2: for another leader.
- 3:09Speaker 3: He's a man who.
- 3:10Speaker 2: Likes to deal with other people face to face. He
- 3:14Speaker 2: likes people who will talk to him man to man.
- 3:17Speaker 2: He doesn't want to do stuff via the media. He
- 3:19Speaker 2: wants to do stuff man to man. Now, he may
- 3:21Speaker 2: not get the bear hug that he said that he
- 3:24Speaker 2: expects g will give him, but he will have a
- 3:28Speaker 2: far more effective discussion in China than he will do
- 3:32Speaker 2: anything else.
- 3:33Speaker 1: Just on that, Let's go back to Jonathan Kurzly. Jonathan,
- 3:37Speaker 1: just talk to us a bit more about the relationship
- 3:39Speaker 1: between Jijingping and Donald Trump. As you said, they've met
- 3:43Speaker 1: six times previously. What is that relationship like, how would
- 3:47Speaker 1: you describe it?
- 3:51Speaker 4: Well, President Trump paints it very positively.
- 3:54Speaker 5: I mean, we have seen President She smile when the
- 3:57Speaker 5: cameras are there and the handshakes are done. Obviously, there
- 4:00Speaker 5: was that most recent summit in South Korea some six
- 4:04Speaker 5: months or so ago.
- 4:05Speaker 4: That was the last time these two leaders met.
- 4:09Speaker 5: President Trump has always painted in the times that I've
- 4:12Speaker 5: heard him speak and been around him listening to him
- 4:16Speaker 5: talk about President She, it is that he has a
- 4:20Speaker 5: warm level of respect for him. And I think that's
- 4:23Speaker 5: the real message that he's trying to show here, because,
- 4:25Speaker 5: as Caleb was saying, he is very much a transactional leader,
- 4:28Speaker 5: So he is looking for a business to business relationship,
- 4:32Speaker 5: if you like. That's how he is treating this and
- 4:36Speaker 5: he knows that respect with a Chinese leader and the
- 4:38Speaker 5: Chinese culture can go a long way. But at the
- 4:43Speaker 5: same time, President She has certain issues under his wing
- 4:47Speaker 5: that he wants to try and nut out over the
- 4:50Speaker 5: course of this couple of days summit, or at least
- 4:54Speaker 5: send messages out about the tone and the direction that
- 4:58Speaker 5: it was taking.
- 5:00Speaker 4: You have seen them be warm.
- 5:01Speaker 5: I expect that we will see warmth again tomorrow, and
- 5:04Speaker 5: warmth again when they visit the Temple of Heaven after
- 5:07Speaker 5: their meeting at the Great Hall of the People.
- 5:09Speaker 4: Guys, it's interesting because I've been here a few days.
- 5:12Speaker 5: Now and been out talking to Chinese people on the streets,
- 5:15Speaker 5: and one thing they don't really talk about here is
- 5:17Speaker 5: the nature of politics. And you talk to people who've
- 5:20Speaker 5: been here a very long time, and that is the
- 5:22Speaker 5: concern around the restrictions on free speech. I was in
- 5:24Speaker 5: Tianin and Square the other day, which is right where
- 5:27Speaker 5: the Great Hall of the People is, which is right
- 5:29Speaker 5: where President Trump and President She are going to be tomorrow.
- 5:32Speaker 4: It is a vast open space, but it was.
- 5:34Speaker 5: Also deathly quiet in a place of so much significance
- 5:38Speaker 5: for the Chinese people.
- 5:40Speaker 4: Security is everywhere. There's passport checks to get through into
- 5:43Speaker 4: this place.
- 5:45Speaker 5: So tomorrow we will see them leave there and then
- 5:47Speaker 5: drive just a couple of kilometers down the road sort
- 5:50Speaker 5: of just from where I am down towards the Temple
- 5:53Speaker 5: of Heaven. We're talking about this before with Paul Murray,
- 5:56Speaker 5: and that is how important culturally this place is for
- 6:00Speaker 5: the Chinese people. It's a very interesting move that President
- 6:04Speaker 5: She is taking President Trump to this particular site. There
- 6:08Speaker 5: is no doubting what he is trying to do, and
- 6:11Speaker 5: that is to send a not so subtle message about
- 6:14Speaker 5: what he sees as endurance and resilience of the Chinese people,
- 6:17Speaker 5: because this was a site that was used for prayer
- 6:20Speaker 5: about harvesting by Chinese emperors dating back some six hundred years.
- 6:26Speaker 4: And it is through.
- 6:27Speaker 5: Exactly that message and that window, if you like that,
- 6:30Speaker 5: President She is taking Donald Trump to this very location.
- 6:35Speaker 5: So it is going to be an extraordinary couple of days.
- 6:38Speaker 5: President Trump is certainly being given a very ceremonial welcome
- 6:42Speaker 5: at Beijing's.
- 6:42Speaker 4: Capital Air Force.
- 6:44Speaker 5: Probably about forty minutes or so drive from here, and
- 6:46Speaker 5: then the beast will make its way in a lot
- 6:49Speaker 5: under forty minutes. I reckon that drive won't take him
- 6:52Speaker 5: too long at all, probably twenty five with the rate
- 6:54Speaker 5: that he normally drives at or at least sits in
- 6:57Speaker 5: the passenger seat while the other strive.
- 6:59Speaker 4: But this is this is going to be a very
- 7:01Speaker 4: very important couple of days.
- 7:03Speaker 6: Yeah, for sure, Jonathan. So we are just seeing that
- 7:05Speaker 6: vision on our screen now as you mentioned them in
- 7:07Speaker 6: the official cars are there, So we would expect that
- 7:10Speaker 6: Donald Trump will exit the plane anytime now, and.
- 7:14Speaker 3: We've got that shot coming to you. Live there. You
- 7:17Speaker 3: can see almost in the windows.
- 7:18Speaker 6: That there is some activity going on, but it shouldn't
- 7:22Speaker 6: be too long now, Jonathan, I want to ask you,
- 7:25Speaker 6: what do you think the marker of success will be
- 7:28Speaker 6: for the United States on this trip? Because there's no
- 7:30Speaker 6: doubt the US is worried about the economic and material
- 7:34Speaker 6: support that Beijing is providing to Iran.
- 7:37Speaker 3: So what does success look like? Do you think.
- 7:44Speaker 4: Success?
- 7:45Speaker 5: I think for the United States of America looks like
- 7:48Speaker 5: winning financial arrangements and not giving up concessions on issues
- 7:54Speaker 5: around Taiwan or leaning too heavily into having to ask
- 7:58Speaker 5: China's president for help with the war in a ram.
- 8:01Speaker 5: That is how President Trump, as a businessman by natural
- 8:05Speaker 5: we've been talking about this now, is that is how
- 8:08Speaker 5: he wants to frame his victories. It'll be a victory
- 8:12Speaker 5: framed by if he is to frame it. Indeed, in
- 8:14Speaker 5: that way, a victory framed by a warm relationship he
- 8:18Speaker 5: will talk about and the need for investment by both countries,
- 8:26Speaker 5: the idea of also bringing the likes of Tim Cook
- 8:29Speaker 5: and Elon Musk into into China to push for American
- 8:33Speaker 5: business access inside.
- 8:35Speaker 1: Sorry, Jonathan, you for a moment, Jonathan, We've just got
- 8:39Speaker 1: images of Trump coming down the stairs now, so we'll
- 8:43Speaker 1: just watch live as Trump makes his way down to
- 8:47Speaker 1: the reception they've organized for him.
- 8:49Speaker 3: Yeah, you can see there.
- 8:50Speaker 6: I mean, look that I have to say that the
- 8:52Speaker 6: Chinese when they are in SEAC, they're really really in sync, right,
- 8:57Speaker 6: and so you would expect this sort of a performance
- 9:00Speaker 6: to welcome Donald Trump and the team. They would have
- 9:03Speaker 6: rehearsed this for a long time. Nobody can be out
- 9:05Speaker 6: of place. Those flags are waiving all at the same
- 9:08Speaker 6: time there. But you can see in that vision Donald
- 9:11Speaker 6: Trump has come down his meeting with officials there on
- 9:15Speaker 6: the tarmac. As Jonathan Cursley said, he'll then get into
- 9:18Speaker 6: the vehicle and it'll be about a twenty minute drive
- 9:21Speaker 6: or so to get to this hotel. But this is
- 9:24Speaker 6: quite significant. As Johono mentioned before, I mean, the last
- 9:27Speaker 6: time he was here was in twenty seventeen, and when
- 9:29Speaker 6: you think about it, the world was very different in
- 9:31Speaker 6: twenty seventeen to what it is right now. It was
- 9:35Speaker 6: I think probably one of the biggest issues at the
- 9:38Speaker 6: time really was tariff's And look at China now they've
- 9:41Speaker 6: grown their military, they're a real force. So this is
- 9:44Speaker 6: a very very important trip. But look, they've rolled out
- 9:47Speaker 6: the red carpet for him, haven't they. They've got this
- 9:50Speaker 6: downpacked and they're ready to receive him.
- 9:53Speaker 3: And as Joho.
- 9:54Speaker 6: Said, this would be a very warm welcome, and that
- 9:57Speaker 6: would be the measure of success. I think they've got
- 9:59Speaker 6: the Chinese military ban there by the sounds of it
- 10:01Speaker 6: as well.
- 10:01Speaker 2: You would expect nothing less, would you. And of course
- 10:04Speaker 2: you could talk about why Biden did or did not
- 10:07Speaker 2: go to China during his presidency. It's interesting when you
- 10:11Speaker 2: talk about Trump. Of course, as we say, his last
- 10:15Speaker 2: visit in twenty seventeen, Biden did not go in the
- 10:17Speaker 2: intervening years. Of course, there is no president between those
- 10:21Speaker 2: two who has been harder on China than Trump himself,
- 10:25Speaker 2: particularly through those COVID years. And so this now marks
- 10:30Speaker 2: the first visit and we can see the welcome that
- 10:34Speaker 2: they're giving to him there as he stands on that
- 10:36Speaker 2: red carpet. But the first visit that he's made since
- 10:39Speaker 2: he was obviously so critical of China through.
- 10:41Speaker 7: All of those years as well.
- 10:44Speaker 2: So for him to be there and to be I
- 10:47Speaker 2: don't want to say rebuilding the relationship is quite something.
- 10:50Speaker 2: But we'll just take a listen to these parades going
- 10:53Speaker 2: on here.
- 10:57Speaker 8: Animal leadia is being moved on there.
- 11:09Speaker 3: We won't see too much very quickly. That was real.
- 11:12Speaker 3: All right, we're done now he.
- 11:14Speaker 8: Went to the cup.
- 11:15Speaker 7: That's how things move in China.
- 11:16Speaker 2: They get a slightly bit of picture of it there
- 11:19Speaker 2: and they really do as you said, denikampen ceremony. You know,
- 11:23Speaker 2: the only other place it does is that Good's probably
- 11:25Speaker 2: the UK.
- 11:26Speaker 9: Yes, they do it with precision up but they also.
- 11:29Speaker 6: Know, don't forget Chinese. The government over there know that
- 11:32Speaker 6: these pictures are going world rde worldwide.
- 11:35Speaker 3: Right.
- 11:35Speaker 6: She knows that everyone's watching this trip. The world is
- 11:39Speaker 6: watching closely to see what outcome. So when Donald Trump arrives,
- 11:43Speaker 6: the pomp and ceremony is going to be extra special
- 11:45Speaker 6: because they want to show off China.
- 11:47Speaker 3: They want to say, look we're welcoming.
- 11:49Speaker 6: Look this is I mean, China would be looking at
- 11:52Speaker 6: this going what an achievement.
- 11:53Speaker 3: We've got Donald Trump on home.
- 11:55Speaker 6: Soil is back again. We're going to shore up this relationship.
- 11:59Speaker 6: And it's these pictures are being beamed.
- 12:02Speaker 3: Around the world right now. But it depick up on
- 12:04Speaker 3: a point that you made earlier.
- 12:06Speaker 6: I think that Donald Trump goes into this with the
- 12:08Speaker 6: upper hand, to be honest, because as you said, China
- 12:10Speaker 6: relies on Iran and it also relies on Venezuela for
- 12:14Speaker 6: its oil. Both of those countries places that Donald Trump
- 12:18Speaker 6: has targeted. Obviously, he went after Maduro, he's gone after Iran.
- 12:23Speaker 6: So Donald Trump goes in saying, well, hang on, we
- 12:26Speaker 6: don't need to rely on international shipments of oil.
- 12:29Speaker 3: We've got it.
- 12:29Speaker 6: We are America first, and that has been his big
- 12:32Speaker 6: policy again, a different shift to where they were back
- 12:35Speaker 6: in twenty seventeen. So China needs this as much as
- 12:39Speaker 6: the US to It's really like a game of cat
- 12:42Speaker 6: and mouse.
- 12:42Speaker 3: Almost.
- 12:43Speaker 1: Well, let's ask Jonathan Thursday about that. Jonathan. We're just
- 12:46Speaker 1: watching the reception that Donald Trump is receiving. There. There's
- 12:49Speaker 1: lots of people waving flags, lots of dignitaries meeting Trump
- 12:53Speaker 1: as he gets off the plane and heads towards the motorcade.
- 12:57Speaker 1: How important is this met for China's reputation as not
- 13:02Speaker 1: just a superpower, but as a responsible world leader, which
- 13:05Speaker 1: is certainly the way they're trying to portray themselves at
- 13:07Speaker 1: the moment.
- 13:11Speaker 5: Yeah, it's important for President She in the context that
- 13:14Speaker 5: he also, likewise like Donald Trump, needs to sell this
- 13:17Speaker 5: as a win to his own people. China's economy has
- 13:21Speaker 5: been sluggish. It's rebounded in recent months, but they're also
- 13:25Speaker 5: seeing another problem here, and that is population decline, the
- 13:28Speaker 5: birth rates going backwards. And also this week we saw
- 13:32Speaker 5: an interesting statistic that showed the number of couples who
- 13:36Speaker 5: got married in the first quarter of this year is
- 13:39Speaker 5: actually the worst it's been since the COVID era. Now,
- 13:41Speaker 5: the reason why those numbers are important, guys, is because
- 13:45Speaker 5: they're viewed here as a marker of the birth rate
- 13:48Speaker 5: the following year. So if the marriage numbers are down, well,
- 13:51Speaker 5: then the birth rate's only going to continue to fall.
- 13:53Speaker 5: And a declining population and an aging population is.
- 13:57Speaker 4: Not helpful for what President She is to do moving forward.
- 14:01Speaker 5: So there are big issues around China's economy that he
- 14:05Speaker 5: is trying.
- 14:05Speaker 4: To address and the idea of selling a victory here
- 14:09Speaker 4: is important to him.
- 14:11Speaker 5: But at the same time, the welcome we've just seen
- 14:13Speaker 5: there with the literal red carpet at Beijing Capital Airport
- 14:16Speaker 5: for the leader of the free world in America's commander
- 14:19Speaker 5: in chief, was also designed yes, being beamed around the world,
- 14:24Speaker 5: but also to play to the one very man who
- 14:27Speaker 5: was walking down those steps onto that red carpet himself.
- 14:30Speaker 4: It was to show Donald Trump the warm embrace.
- 14:34Speaker 5: It might not be exactly the bear huggers we were
- 14:37Speaker 5: talking about earlier that Donald Trump has said that President
- 14:39Speaker 5: She was going to give him. But look, let's find
- 14:42Speaker 5: that out tomorrow at the Great Hall of the People.
- 14:44Speaker 5: Whether there's a handshake or indeed a bear hug at
- 14:47Speaker 5: the Great Hall of the People. I think that would
- 14:49Speaker 5: be an extraordinary move if indeed that was to happen.
- 14:52Speaker 5: But President She does have big markers to make here,
- 14:55Speaker 5: and he is trying to paint this as a victory
- 14:58Speaker 5: in front of his own people.
- 15:00Speaker 4: What you've got here is.
- 15:02Speaker 5: A battle between two leaders, both trying to sell their
- 15:06Speaker 5: own messages domestically. As I said, I think this is
- 15:10Speaker 5: more likely over the course of the next few days
- 15:12Speaker 5: to be a message about stabilization in the relationship rather
- 15:16Speaker 5: than a complete reset and reachur And yes there's going
- 15:18Speaker 5: to be talk on Iran, Yes there's going to be
- 15:21Speaker 5: work around business stuff. But this is trying to sort
- 15:24Speaker 5: of shift the paradox, if you like, in this relationship,
- 15:27Speaker 5: not a complete hit the emergency button. Let's reset everything.
- 15:31Speaker 5: After the relationship between China and the Biden administration significantly
- 15:36Speaker 5: broke down, particularly around the language the Biden administration started
- 15:40Speaker 5: using around Taiwan and the United States would come to
- 15:45Speaker 5: Taiwan's aid militarily if China was to launch an attack.
- 15:50Speaker 5: We're not going to see that sort of big shift,
- 15:53Speaker 5: I think. But both leaders are trying to say this
- 15:56Speaker 5: at the moment that they are going to want to
- 15:59Speaker 5: have this as a big victory in their own rights.
- 16:02Speaker 4: But really over the.
- 16:03Speaker 5: Course of the next few days, it's going to be
- 16:04Speaker 5: looking at the substance as to how those both those
- 16:07Speaker 5: leaders are going to measure that victory. It might be
- 16:11Speaker 5: subtle winds. I don't think it's likely to be big wins.
- 16:14Speaker 5: But I think what you're going.
- 16:15Speaker 4: To walk away from here seeing in.
- 16:17Speaker 5: This very consequential meeting over the course of the next
- 16:19Speaker 5: couple of days is an idea that perhaps both sides
- 16:23Speaker 5: of one, which in essence becomes a nil or draw.
- 16:27Speaker 2: We've just been watching the modicaid move on there, Jonathan,
- 16:30Speaker 2: so I suppose we'll see some of that lead footing
- 16:32Speaker 2: that you were talking about before as well. We've talked about,
- 16:36Speaker 2: of course what this means to g in the message
- 16:39Speaker 2: that he has to sell in China.
- 16:40Speaker 7: But I suppose you've also got to talk.
- 16:42Speaker 2: About the message that Donald Trump has to sell back
- 16:44Speaker 2: at home in the United States, because of course, you
- 16:47Speaker 2: know a lot of people in the United States, particularly
- 16:50Speaker 2: in the MAGA movement, are wary of China, and Donald
- 16:54Speaker 2: Trump has traditionally spoken in very strong terms about China,
- 16:59Speaker 2: and so he has to be conscious as well that
- 17:01Speaker 2: he doesn't seem too buddy buddy, that doesn't get too
- 17:05Speaker 2: many bear hugs, or they don't call him the handsome
- 17:07Speaker 2: boy as they did our Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi.
- 17:10Speaker 7: Because he has to walk a tightrope on this too.
- 17:17Speaker 5: There's a lot of tightrope walking, particularly around the Taiwan
- 17:20Speaker 5: issue and the military strength I supposed position if you
- 17:24Speaker 5: like that, he's going to have to sort of navigate
- 17:27Speaker 5: that very very carefully.
- 17:28Speaker 4: Indeed.
- 17:29Speaker 5: However, yes, President Trump has been tough on China in
- 17:33Speaker 5: the past, and he brings with him Secretary of State
- 17:35Speaker 5: Marco Rubio, who as a senator was one of the
- 17:38Speaker 5: most extraordinary hardliners against the Chinese Communist Party that the
- 17:42Speaker 5: United States had seen in some time. If wan to
- 17:46Speaker 5: wine the clock back, it was twenty twenty a Chinese
- 17:49Speaker 5: government official handed me a list that became known as
- 17:52Speaker 5: the Fourteen Grievances, the fourteen issues that China had with Australia,
- 17:57Speaker 5: and the Chinese officials said to me at the time,
- 17:59Speaker 5: if you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy.
- 18:02Speaker 5: One of the first Americans to respond to that was
- 18:05Speaker 5: Marco Rubio himself, warning against the dangers and the moves
- 18:10Speaker 5: that the Chinese Communist Party was making, particularly and exposing a.
- 18:13Speaker 4: Document like that so publicly.
- 18:15Speaker 5: But President Trump also has midterms in mind, and there
- 18:20Speaker 5: has been a lot of talk in the United States
- 18:22Speaker 5: and criticism from within the movement maybe not to focus
- 18:25Speaker 5: too much on the conflict with.
- 18:27Speaker 4: Iran and drag the issues back domestically.
- 18:29Speaker 5: Talk about the economy, talk about investment, talk about those
- 18:32Speaker 5: things that matters to the American people. So again that's
- 18:35Speaker 5: why he may be looking to the business dealings. Is
- 18:37Speaker 5: a big chance to win this for the American people
- 18:40Speaker 5: and say, essentially he was over there as Captain America
- 18:44Speaker 5: for Team America bringing it all home. Because the midterms
- 18:48Speaker 5: are fast approaching and for the last two years of
- 18:51Speaker 5: his presidency to really charge through, he needs the Republicans
- 18:56Speaker 5: to hang on to the House and the Senate in particular. Look, yes,
- 19:01Speaker 5: President Trump needs to have victories here, but it is
- 19:04Speaker 5: going to be an idea of a measure of how
- 19:06Speaker 5: he quantifies those victories and how he sells those back
- 19:10Speaker 5: to the American people. He's all too aware of the
- 19:12Speaker 5: issues in the Endo Pacific, China's military build up, it's
- 19:16Speaker 5: push further south. We've also seen the United States critical
- 19:20Speaker 5: of China's coercion around Panama and the Panama Canal in
- 19:24Speaker 5: recent weeks too. That again another issue much closer to
- 19:28Speaker 5: America's shaws.
- 19:30Speaker 4: That he is all too aware of.
- 19:32Speaker 5: So, look, there's going to be a balancing act I
- 19:34Speaker 5: think from him in terms of trying, yes, to avoid
- 19:38Speaker 5: heaping too much praise on President she But the idea
- 19:41Speaker 5: behind this is he likewise he's putting on his own
- 19:45Speaker 5: show to present to President she one of warm embrace,
- 19:48Speaker 5: one of presidentcy the Trump way in order to try
- 19:51Speaker 5: and get what he wants.
- 19:53Speaker 4: This is the battle of two titans.
- 19:54Speaker 1: Well, Jonathan Cursey, we appreciate you joining us tonight. We
- 19:57Speaker 1: look forward to watching your coverage of Trump's China visit
- 20:01Speaker 1: over the next couple of days. Thanks so much. It's
- 20:04Speaker 1: interesting you're talking with Jonathan there earlier club about the
- 20:07Speaker 1: military aspect, and I think one of the reasons it's
- 20:10Speaker 1: really important for Trump to persist with the war in
- 20:14Speaker 1: Iran and not to give in to some sort of
- 20:18Speaker 1: easy truce is because he has to send a signal
- 20:21Speaker 1: to China that the West is not for turning. And
- 20:24Speaker 1: the Europeans have come across as weak and feeble militarily. Kirstama,
- 20:31Speaker 1: the French, the Spanish, they've all refused to be involved
- 20:34Speaker 1: in what's happening in the Middle East. If Trump caves
- 20:37Speaker 1: in to the Ayatollers, it sends a message to China
- 20:41Speaker 1: that would embolden them to make a move on Taiwan
- 20:44Speaker 1: at some point in the next few years. I don't
- 20:46Speaker 1: think anyone wants that. It's one of the reasons I
- 20:49Speaker 1: think he's got to stay the course in Iran, even
- 20:51Speaker 1: if it is economically expensive, even if it is a
- 20:54Speaker 1: little embarrassing. Trump having forecast that war would be over
- 20:57Speaker 1: within six weeks, now we're dragging onto what is it,
- 21:00Speaker 1: ten weeks and a few days. But he's got to
- 21:04Speaker 1: stay the course because he's got to show China that
- 21:07Speaker 1: the West will not be bowed, that it's not cowardly,
- 21:11Speaker 1: and it will stand up for freedom.
- 21:13Speaker 2: But then you've got to ask the question, what is
- 21:15Speaker 2: the course? Because if as Trump said, you know, this
- 21:18Speaker 2: was meant to be over within four or five weeks,
- 21:20Speaker 2: that was in February. Obviously we are now into May,
- 21:24Speaker 2: so it's lasted well beyond that. We have a cease
- 21:28Speaker 2: fire that sort of you know, hangs on by a thread,
- 21:30Speaker 2: But is it really a cease fire and is the
- 21:32Speaker 2: war really finishing? You know, one minute we're being told
- 21:36Speaker 2: by Hegseth Rubio rather that we're not actually in a
- 21:40Speaker 2: state of war anymore, we're in a state of maintenance.
- 21:42Speaker 2: And then the next day they're all firing in. So
- 21:44Speaker 2: are we back in a state of war? What is
- 21:47Speaker 2: the course? Because if the message you want to send
- 21:49Speaker 2: to China is that we will not lay down and
- 21:52Speaker 2: we won't take it. I don't think that's the message
- 21:55Speaker 2: that's really being sent at the moment if we can't
- 21:58Speaker 2: sort out having gone the Royal we but having gone
- 22:04Speaker 2: in on the first day of all of this and
- 22:06Speaker 2: wiped out the Ayatolla months before that, taken out large
- 22:09Speaker 2: amounts of their nuclear capability, taken out of more nuclear
- 22:14Speaker 2: capability since they killed the Ayatoller, and we the US,
- 22:18Speaker 2: still can't settle this war very quickly. I'm not sure
- 22:22Speaker 2: that it is sending a message to China that we
- 22:25Speaker 2: couldn't be run over into.
- 22:27Speaker 1: You know, on that question of you know, are we
- 22:29Speaker 1: at wars at a cease fire? You know, hostilities have ceased.
- 22:33Speaker 1: Part of that is not about any message to do
- 22:36Speaker 1: with the r It's to do with a message to Congress,
- 22:38Speaker 1: because Trump has to get Congressional approval to continue a
- 22:42Speaker 1: war beyond a certain period, and so Trump is maintaining
- 22:45Speaker 1: they've not met that threshold yet because they're actually not
- 22:48Speaker 1: at war at the moment. It's a cease fire. So
- 22:50Speaker 1: part of that rationale, I think in Trump's retoric has
- 22:54Speaker 1: been to avoid having to go to Congress and fight
- 22:57Speaker 1: the Democrats for permission to continue waging this war.
- 23:00Speaker 6: But I also think that's just the way that Donald
- 23:01Speaker 6: Trump operates that I think that everything he's done to
- 23:04Speaker 6: date when it comes to Iran has been a strategy.
- 23:07Speaker 6: The way that he posts to truth Social. I mean
- 23:10Speaker 6: that the truth Social late night posts, so we've covered
- 23:13Speaker 6: it extensively here on the Late Debate have all been
- 23:16Speaker 6: deliberately done. I don't think that it's just off the
- 23:19Speaker 6: cuff comments as such. I think he knows what sort
- 23:22Speaker 6: of strategy he's playing. I think he knows that the
- 23:24Speaker 6: art of the deal. And I also think that we're
- 23:26Speaker 6: going to find out where he thinks this war is
- 23:30Speaker 6: going after this China trip, because he's going to be
- 23:33Speaker 6: looking to China to shore up support that it will
- 23:38Speaker 6: help I guess advance peace talks will encourage Iran to
- 23:44Speaker 6: open the strait of wull moves. And I think he
- 23:46Speaker 6: will rely heavily on Beijing for this because I do
- 23:49Speaker 6: think the United States is worried about the economic and
- 23:52Speaker 6: the material support that Beijing.
- 23:54Speaker 3: Is supplying to Iran right now.
- 23:57Speaker 6: The other issue, though, is that Irani have to take
- 24:00Speaker 6: their country back like they cannot sit idly by on
- 24:04Speaker 6: this one. And I think that Donald Trump has on
- 24:06Speaker 6: multiple occasions encouraged Iran to stand up and take back Teyran,
- 24:12Speaker 6: So I think that's another issue.
- 24:13Speaker 3: But Donald Trump.
- 24:14Speaker 6: Has faced Wall to war criticism, NATO, the United Kingdom,
- 24:20Speaker 6: I would say Australia in that have been absolutely terrible
- 24:24Speaker 6: allies to the United States, and god forbid, the shoe
- 24:26Speaker 6: was on the other foot. So I do not think
- 24:29Speaker 6: that he can back down now. I think he has
- 24:31Speaker 6: to go all the way in what that looks like.
- 24:34Speaker 6: I think we will find out after this China trip.
- 24:37Speaker 6: I think it's come at the right time for Donald Trump.
- 24:40Speaker 2: But does that not also say that the reliance on
- 24:44Speaker 2: what China does or does not do this week does
- 24:47Speaker 2: mean you know, rightly or wrongly, that China does have
- 24:51Speaker 2: some level of hand in this.
- 24:53Speaker 7: That Trump has to go and talk to them now.
- 24:54Speaker 2: Of course, before he got on the plane to go
- 24:56Speaker 2: to China, he suggested that they had nothing to do
- 25:00Speaker 2: with the war whatsoever.
- 25:05Speaker 7: I think we've got to grab it.
- 25:05Speaker 3: We're gonna have a long talk about it.
- 25:08Speaker 2: I think he's been relatively good to be partners.
- 25:12Speaker 1: I don't think he needs intervene at all with the
- 25:15Speaker 1: Irani I don't think he can help in any way.
- 25:17Speaker 8: No, I don't think we need any help with Iran.
- 25:20Speaker 2: We don't need any help with Iran. I don't believe
- 25:23Speaker 2: that for one minute. I think they do need China's
- 25:25Speaker 2: help with Iran because Trump would like to find a
- 25:28Speaker 2: way to get through to Iran to fix this before
- 25:31Speaker 2: he actually does start talking about I mean, remember what
- 25:34Speaker 2: was it a month ago when he was saying about
- 25:36Speaker 2: wiping out a civilization. I know he's made that threat.
- 25:39Speaker 7: I don't think he wants to follow through on it.
- 25:42Speaker 2: The problem is, though, that if he doesn't get a
- 25:44Speaker 2: result here, or at least some sort of salvo that
- 25:48Speaker 2: China might be able to go in advance with peace talks,
- 25:50Speaker 2: he's got no option but to start following through on
- 25:53Speaker 2: these things. He hasn't done it yet, but it's only
- 25:55Speaker 2: so long you can leave those threats hanging before they
- 25:58Speaker 2: just become worthless.
- 25:59Speaker 1: It's funny he needs China's help to sort out the
- 26:02Speaker 1: situation in Iran because just at the weekend there were
- 26:05Speaker 1: stories that China had been supplying Iran with satellite images
- 26:09Speaker 1: to help them attack US bases in the Middle East. So,
- 26:12Speaker 1: on the one hand, and this is the situation that
- 26:15Speaker 1: we find ourselves in the whole Western world does On
- 26:17Speaker 1: the one hand, you've got China as a major adversary,
- 26:20Speaker 1: and on the other hand you're trying to appeal to
- 26:23Speaker 1: them as partners. So talk about conflicted. But China's being
- 26:27Speaker 1: hurt in this conflict as well. They import one point
- 26:30Speaker 1: four million barrels of oil from Iran every single day.
- 26:34Speaker 1: Eighty percent of the oil that is exported from Iran
- 26:37Speaker 1: goes to China. That's proving very difficult right now with
- 26:41Speaker 1: the US having blocked the Straight. So maybe there will
- 26:44Speaker 1: be some incentive for China, even as adversaries, to play
- 26:48Speaker 1: that double handed move where they try to persuade a
- 26:52Speaker 1: run to end this for economic reason.
- 26:53Speaker 3: But this is what I mean.
- 26:54Speaker 6: But China has a big stake in this right China
- 26:56Speaker 6: needs that straight to open because they have been battered
- 27:00Speaker 6: the most out of this. As I said, it relies
- 27:02Speaker 6: on Iran and Venezuela for its oil. Donald Trump is
- 27:06Speaker 6: coming in and saying, well, you know, stick it, stick it.
- 27:09Speaker 6: We don't need oil, we don't need your help. We
- 27:12Speaker 6: are America first. We have got this all under control.
- 27:16Speaker 6: China needs the United States. So I think that Donald
- 27:19Speaker 6: Trump will go into this playing a very good bargaining
- 27:22Speaker 6: chip card. He will say he will push them to
- 27:25Speaker 6: push Iran for peace talks and to reopen the straight
- 27:28Speaker 6: because it is in Beijing's best interest to do so.
- 27:31Speaker 1: On the other hand, it's also in Beijing's interests, is
- 27:33Speaker 1: it not to have the US forces occupied in the
- 27:38Speaker 1: Middle East. They're spending huge amounts of ordnance in the
- 27:41Speaker 1: Middle East. All their attention is focused in the Middle East.
- 27:44Speaker 1: I think prior to the war in Iran, the US
- 27:46Speaker 1: had a far larger naval contingent in the South Pacific
- 27:49Speaker 1: than they do right now. So you know, there's mixed
- 27:53Speaker 1: benefits versus costs for China as well.
- 27:56Speaker 2: And this is the thing it comes down to whether
- 27:58Speaker 2: the almighty dollar is more important or the military strength,
- 28:05Speaker 2: the distraction as you say of the United States, but
- 28:08Speaker 2: also sort of you know, saying to the US, well,
- 28:11Speaker 2: you know, if we're the intermediary here, we can sort
- 28:14Speaker 2: of do whatever we want. We'll cop the loss on
- 28:16Speaker 2: the oil in the meantime, and that puts you in
- 28:19Speaker 2: a pickle. So we're showing you who's boss in this situation.
- 28:22Speaker 2: And I think one of the other things that plays
- 28:24Speaker 2: into that, going way back beyond the beginning of this
- 28:27Speaker 2: war was the Ukraine War as well. And we've talked
- 28:30Speaker 2: on him many times about the fact that, you know,
- 28:32Speaker 2: you can't give up on the Ukraine War because that
- 28:35Speaker 2: would send a message to China.
- 28:37Speaker 7: YadA, YadA, YadA. But what we saw over.
- 28:39Speaker 2: Years and years and years was Biden handing over hundreds
- 28:43Speaker 2: of billions of dollars to Ukraine. That war has not ended.
- 28:47Speaker 2: You had Donald Trump saying he fixed it within twenty
- 28:49Speaker 2: four hours of becoming president. That war has not ended,
- 28:52Speaker 2: and it just goes on and on and on. Now, sure,
- 28:55Speaker 2: we haven't given up on the war, but nor have
- 28:58Speaker 2: we really shown in any great way way that we
- 29:00Speaker 2: were willing to properly fight Russia on that war. So
- 29:04Speaker 2: if you were China looking at that, would you go, hmm,
- 29:06Speaker 2: you know, is this sort.
- 29:07Speaker 7: Of where we'd end up?
- 29:09Speaker 2: They just, you know, sort of fighting perpetuity, not really
- 29:12Speaker 2: achieving anything because China ain't going to fight.
- 29:14Speaker 7: Like Russia would.
- 29:16Speaker 2: China would just come in and obliterate you in five
- 29:19Speaker 2: seconds flat. So I think, no matter what you do,
- 29:23Speaker 2: they'd still be looking at you and going, I'm not
- 29:25Speaker 2: that worried about you.
- 29:26Speaker 1: Well, the other thing of course is it probably benefits
- 29:28Speaker 1: China to have the US embarrassed in the Middle East,
- 29:32Speaker 1: bogged down in a war that was supposed to last
- 29:34Speaker 1: six weeks. It's dragging on, Trump increasingly becoming a pariah
- 29:39Speaker 1: around the world because everybody's suffering economically. I'm sure China
- 29:43Speaker 1: would sit back quite happy because they are then able
- 29:46Speaker 1: to cast themselves as the reasonable ones, as the ones
- 29:50Speaker 1: who are responsible, and the ones who are diplomatic. It
- 29:54Speaker 1: suits them to have Trump cast as the bad person,
- 29:58Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, the communist regime starts to
- 30:00Speaker 1: look sensible and mature.
- 30:02Speaker 6: That's a good point, and I think what we've got
- 30:04Speaker 6: to watch over the next couple of days is the
- 30:06Speaker 6: vision and the narrative that the Chinese state media push.
- 30:09Speaker 6: Because Jonathan Kurzley alluded to this earlier. China is on
- 30:14Speaker 6: the world stage right now, and they want to look
- 30:17Speaker 6: like the heroes of this entire situation. So be prepared
- 30:21Speaker 6: for these photo opportunities, the grand pomp and ceremony, the
- 30:25Speaker 6: Chinese state media will be saying, look, you know, Shijing
- 30:28Speaker 6: Ping was able to get the handshake, was able to
- 30:30Speaker 6: get the deal.
- 30:31Speaker 3: Donald Trump has come.
- 30:32Speaker 6: Over to China, and we forced him into doing blah
- 30:35Speaker 6: blah blah. So watch that space because China is going
- 30:39Speaker 6: to twist the narrative. And on the other hand, you're
- 30:41Speaker 6: going to say Donald Trump will say it. He's going
- 30:43Speaker 6: to say no, no, no, Well I got China to fold.
- 30:45Speaker 3: It's all me.
- 30:46Speaker 6: You'll see the rants on truth social over the coming days.
- 30:49Speaker 3: Oh me, I did it. I did it.
- 30:52Speaker 6: So it's going to be a real contrast. But I
- 30:54Speaker 6: do agree with what you say. I mean, China might
- 30:57Speaker 6: just sit back here and go right, go on, what
- 31:01Speaker 6: are you made of?
- 31:02Speaker 1: We'll see what happens. All right, We're going to go
- 31:03Speaker 1: to a break. When we come back. Kis starmer in
- 31:06Speaker 1: all sorts of trouble in the UK as the King
- 31:09Speaker 1: addresses Parliament, and we look at what's coming up in
- 31:11Speaker 1: the papers tomorrow as well. All of that in just
- 31:13Speaker 1: a moment. Well, welcome back to the program. It's a
- 31:20Speaker 1: big night. Trump arriving in Beijing, and just a couple
- 31:23Speaker 1: of hours ago the King finished speaking in the British Parliament.
- 31:27Speaker 1: Let's have a listened to some of what King Charles
- 31:29Speaker 1: said in his address to the Parliament.
- 31:32Speaker 10: My government will take urgent action to tackle anti Semitism
- 31:37Speaker 10: and ensure all communities feel safe.
- 31:41Speaker 1: Now. Of course, just for clarification, when the King says
- 31:43Speaker 1: my government, he's speaking on behalf of the Labor government's
- 31:48Speaker 1: a Kiir Starmer. He's reading into parliament the plans for
- 31:53Speaker 1: the Labor government over the next term, thirty five pieces
- 31:56Speaker 1: of legislation. It'll be interesting, though, to see whether Sekia
- 31:59Speaker 1: is there to enact all of the legislation which King
- 32:02Speaker 1: Charles has forecast on his behalf. In fact, Danika the
- 32:07Speaker 1: Palace apparently contacted Number ten to say, should we go
- 32:11Speaker 1: ahead with this arrangement that is done every year because
- 32:16Speaker 1: we don't want to appear to be propping up Kyirstarmer
- 32:20Speaker 1: and for the speech to become political. It went ahead,
- 32:23Speaker 1: of course, will Kirstarma be around?
- 32:25Speaker 6: Well, of course it went ahead because Kirs Starmer wants
- 32:27Speaker 6: to make out like no, look, everything's all perfect, Because
- 32:30Speaker 6: this is a man who seems to be soldiering on goodness.
- 32:33Speaker 6: Me knows why. I just have to comment quickly on
- 32:36Speaker 6: the speech. Urgent action to tackle anti Semitism. What a
- 32:39Speaker 6: way to start it? What on earth has Kiostarma done
- 32:43Speaker 6: to tackle anti Semitism? But here was my favorite the King.
- 32:47Speaker 6: The King has to read this, so the speech.
- 32:49Speaker 3: Is all prepared by the government, by the way.
- 32:51Speaker 6: He then went through social justice issues, saying that the
- 32:54Speaker 6: government will remain quote a leading advocate for tackling climate change.
- 32:59Speaker 6: So what a fantastic agenda by Kiirstarma for a man
- 33:03Speaker 6: who is hanging on for political deer life. And that
- 33:06Speaker 6: is the agenda anti Semitism in which he's done absolutely
- 33:09Speaker 6: nothing about, and climate change, the renewables only crusade. Kiirstarma
- 33:15Speaker 6: is absolutely done. The Health secretary, where's Streeting, is expected
- 33:20Speaker 6: to resign and trigger a leadership contest tomorrow being Thursday,
- 33:25Speaker 6: so it sounds like it's on, and that obviously follows
- 33:29Speaker 6: multiple other resignations that we've seen over the last couple
- 33:31Speaker 6: of days. The fact that Kirstarma is maintaining the rage
- 33:36Speaker 6: and saying no lo, look, I'm not going anywhere is
- 33:38Speaker 6: absolutely bizarre to me. I did read that he was
- 33:41Speaker 6: holding a meeting with Wes Streeting today because he wants
- 33:44Speaker 6: to behind the scene.
- 33:44Speaker 3: Last night we thought it.
- 33:46Speaker 6: Out sixteen ext at sixteen minutes, seeing sixteen minutes and
- 33:49Speaker 6: then you've got some allies of Kirstarma and I loved
- 33:52Speaker 6: this bit.
- 33:52Speaker 3: Some allies of.
- 33:53Speaker 6: Kirstarmer came out and said, there's no way that We's
- 33:56Speaker 6: Streeting could have possibly been mounting a leadership challenge because
- 34:00Speaker 6: over the weekend he was at the cinema.
- 34:02Speaker 3: Watching The Devil Wears Prada too.
- 34:05Speaker 6: So the leaks and the lies that are coming out
- 34:08Speaker 6: of Downing Street right now, Kia is walking there.
- 34:11Speaker 3: He's a dead man walking. He's gone.
- 34:14Speaker 2: But do they really think that if they change leaders
- 34:17Speaker 2: anything is going to change.
- 34:19Speaker 7: No, nothing will change.
- 34:20Speaker 6: I think that they I don't think anything will change,
- 34:22Speaker 6: but I think that he is so deeply unpopular that
- 34:25Speaker 6: they go, you know what, maybe if we have a
- 34:28Speaker 6: fresh face in charge, that'll change their fortunes.
- 34:30Speaker 3: I don't think it will. But nobody likes Kia.
- 34:33Speaker 1: His approval rating is negative forty two, which is amazing
- 34:37Speaker 1: because he won with the biggest majority in history good
- 34:40Speaker 1: point just two years ago and it's all gone south
- 34:44Speaker 1: since then. So for a challenge to occur in the
- 34:47Speaker 1: UK system with the Labor Party, there has to be
- 34:50Speaker 1: a challenger with twenty percent of the MP's backing him,
- 34:54Speaker 1: which would be eighty MPs eighty one now they had
- 34:57Speaker 1: one hundred backbenches. Result withdraws port from Sirkir Starmer, but
- 35:01Speaker 1: clearly they've not yet been able to rally around A
- 35:04Speaker 1: single challenge of the question is whether where Streeting has
- 35:07Speaker 1: while watching Devil Wears Prada been able to work in
- 35:11Speaker 1: the phone, work in the phone. I'd work the phones
- 35:14Speaker 1: during Devil Wears Prada as well before more.
- 35:16Speaker 2: It's never happened in the one hundred and twenty six
- 35:19Speaker 2: year history of the Labor Party, they have never rolled
- 35:22Speaker 2: a sitting prime minister because it is so hard, obviously
- 35:25Speaker 2: to get twenty percent of the sitting MPs to back
- 35:29Speaker 2: in one candidate. That's what they have to do in
- 35:31Speaker 2: order to get the spill. Now, if that happens, Sir
- 35:35Speaker 2: Quilla gets to put his name back on the list anyway,
- 35:37Speaker 2: he doesn't need another twenty percent to back him to
- 35:40Speaker 2: run again as the incumbent.
- 35:41Speaker 8: He gets to do it.
- 35:43Speaker 2: So who knows what the result would be if they
- 35:45Speaker 2: were going to do it. But of course, the counterpoint
- 35:47Speaker 2: to all of this business about you know, is terribly unpopular,
- 35:49Speaker 2: et cetera, is one Malcolm Turnbull once stood up and
- 35:53Speaker 2: said we've lost thirty news polls in a row, and
- 35:57Speaker 2: that was his justification for rolling Tony and didn't that
- 36:01Speaker 2: turn out really well?
- 36:03Speaker 7: Right?
- 36:04Speaker 2: I mean, this is the danger in rolling sitting prime ministers.
- 36:07Speaker 2: They can be as unpopular as anyone you want to
- 36:10Speaker 2: name on the face of the earth. But they were
- 36:13Speaker 2: democratically elected. When people voted for Labor in the last
- 36:18Speaker 2: general election, they knew that the leader was Saki Stama,
- 36:21Speaker 2: and that is the prime minister that they would end
- 36:23Speaker 2: up with if Labor got a majority. And you start
- 36:26Speaker 2: running around mid term and saying, oh, well, just because
- 36:29Speaker 2: the numbers have gone south, will tip this blokeout who
- 36:33Speaker 2: got all of us, you know, record numbers of Labor
- 36:36Speaker 2: MPs into Parliament, you know, on his back, we all
- 36:39Speaker 2: got in here. But now we're going to turn around
- 36:41Speaker 2: and say.
- 36:41Speaker 7: Oh well, we don't think you're much chop anymore.
- 36:43Speaker 2: We'll get someone else to come and do the job.
- 36:45Speaker 2: You know, you make your bed and you lie in it.
- 36:48Speaker 2: And this business as we've been through, I mean as
- 36:50Speaker 2: the UK has been through with the Tories, where they
- 36:53Speaker 2: went through, you know, David Cameron and Boris Johnson and
- 36:57Speaker 2: Theresa May and Liz Truss and Rishie Soon and that
- 37:00Speaker 2: turned out really well for the Tories, didn't it. And
- 37:03Speaker 2: we did it here in Australia. We went from a
- 37:05Speaker 2: Rudd to Gillard, back to Rudd, then we went to Abbott,
- 37:08Speaker 2: then we went to Turnbull, then we went to Morrison.
- 37:11Speaker 7: You know, people don't like it.
- 37:13Speaker 2: As unpopular as Sukia might be, there's nothing to gain
- 37:17Speaker 2: in changing the leader.
- 37:18Speaker 7: I don't think.
- 37:19Speaker 2: At least let the government have the stability of a leader.
- 37:24Speaker 6: Believe, but there's still time between now and a general election.
- 37:28Speaker 6: If you were the Labor Party, you would be absolutely
- 37:31Speaker 6: stressed out of your brain to continue having Keir Starmer leading,
- 37:36Speaker 6: knowing that his polling is so diabolical and it is
- 37:40Speaker 6: only going to get worse and worse, and your only
- 37:43Speaker 6: option would be to change leader, whether or not it
- 37:46Speaker 6: changes the fortunes, but at least it might change the
- 37:49Speaker 6: face of a party which is going nowhere as it
- 37:51Speaker 6: should because their policies just as diabolical as the leader.
- 37:56Speaker 6: But surely they're not going to sit back between now
- 37:58Speaker 6: in a general election.
- 37:59Speaker 1: It's funny use to, but you can't dump a sitting
- 38:01Speaker 1: prime minister because so kis Starmer is saying that now,
- 38:05Speaker 1: But have listened to what he said back in twenty
- 38:06Speaker 1: twenty two when Boris Johnson was the sitting Prime minister.
- 38:11Speaker 10: His own party have finally concluded that he's unfit to
- 38:15Speaker 10: be prime minister. They can't now inflicting on the country
- 38:19Speaker 10: for the next few months. It's obvious he's unfit to
- 38:22Speaker 10: be prime mister. That's been blindingly obvious for a very
- 38:24Speaker 10: very long time.
- 38:26Speaker 1: He could be talking about himself right there. He said
- 38:30Speaker 1: that after Boris Johnson had lost three hundred and thirty
- 38:34Speaker 1: six councilors in a local government election, Kis Starmer has
- 38:37Speaker 1: just lost almost fifteen hundred, Yes, labor councilors. How much
- 38:42Speaker 1: more should Kiirs Starmer get on his bike? But he's claiming,
- 38:45Speaker 1: as you said, cald I'm the sitting PM. You can't
- 38:47Speaker 1: ditch a sitting PM.
- 38:48Speaker 2: You know what, Actually kind of respect him for it
- 38:50Speaker 2: because he's just digging his heels in his hand. You
- 38:53Speaker 2: lot loved me when I got you into Parliament. Now
- 38:56Speaker 2: you're turning on me and want to put the knife
- 38:58Speaker 2: in the back at least entertaining of nothing else. Speaking
- 39:01Speaker 2: of entertainment, Rod Stewart.
- 39:03Speaker 7: Sir Rod Stewart, I believe.
- 39:07Speaker 2: Was talking to the King on Monday. He was at
- 39:09Speaker 2: an event and the King and Queen were walking through,
- 39:12Speaker 2: and so he decided Sir Rod to talk to the
- 39:15Speaker 2: King about his recent visit to America.
- 39:18Speaker 9: Take a look, you.
- 39:30Speaker 2: Put that little rat bag in his place, now, you
- 39:33Speaker 2: know what. I still like Sir Rod. I like his music,
- 39:36Speaker 2: But what an awful position to put the King in.
- 39:39Speaker 2: I mean, even if that's what you thought of what
- 39:41Speaker 2: the King did over there, you're in a public place.
- 39:44Speaker 2: The King is an apolitical figure. Clearly as Sir Rod
- 39:49Speaker 2: does you know the King? Why would you knowingly put
- 39:52Speaker 2: him in that position where you've made a political statement
- 39:56Speaker 2: to him and then he's kind of got to bat
- 39:58Speaker 2: it away because otherwise it turns into a big story.
- 40:00Speaker 9: I think that was he did him the dirty there.
- 40:02Speaker 3: Yeah. Look, I think Rod no longer wears it well, be.
- 40:05Speaker 1: Honest, eighteen year old man who hasn't had a fit
- 40:09Speaker 1: since he was forty, and he does his hair like
- 40:11Speaker 1: he's twenty.
- 40:11Speaker 6: Hey, can I just say, Sir Rod, Sir Rod is
- 40:14Speaker 6: still outperforming.
- 40:15Speaker 3: He's still out doing worldwide tours.
- 40:16Speaker 6: That man can move. I've watched some of his concerts
- 40:19Speaker 6: that I think, geez, he looks great. I reckon not anymore.
- 40:22Speaker 6: He's become the Springsteen of the UK.
- 40:25Speaker 1: Springsteen lost a whole lot of supporters when he started
- 40:29Speaker 1: to become political. No one wants to hear no, I know,
- 40:32Speaker 1: but you know what's funny, Rod Stewart alienated his audience.
- 40:35Speaker 6: Rod Stewart also made similar remarks to the Queen later on.
- 40:38Speaker 2: I know, I know he wasn't going to give up
- 40:39Speaker 2: playing around. So I thought, well, I wanted to know
- 40:43Speaker 2: why he did this. So I sent a message to
- 40:47Speaker 2: Rod Stewart's people and this was the statement we received back.
- 41:02Speaker 2: And so that will be the end of that matter.
- 41:05Speaker 2: I suppose you go.
- 41:06Speaker 6: Sign sealed and delivered, Rod Stewart. I absolutely love that. Seriously,
- 41:09Speaker 6: that's terrific. That's really really great. Now, look not what
- 41:13Speaker 6: is not great the AFL. It seems to be going
- 41:16Speaker 6: the way of DEI unfortunately, but no, it has. Firstly,
- 41:21Speaker 6: the AFL and AFL Players Association has launched what they're
- 41:25Speaker 6: calling the Equality, Inclusion and Safety Advisory Committee. This is
- 41:31Speaker 6: a collaborative initiative. In its inaugural year, the group will
- 41:35Speaker 6: meet quarterly to focus and I was going to read
- 41:37Speaker 6: this specifically on the lived experiences of LGBTIQ plus first
- 41:42Speaker 6: Nations and culturally diverse athletes by prioritizing player feedback on
- 41:48Speaker 6: issues such as discrimination and workplace safety. This committee aims
- 41:52Speaker 6: to reform industry policies and make sure that everybody is
- 41:56Speaker 6: on the same page. At the very same time, the
- 41:59Speaker 6: AFL also seeking to recruit more Indigenous coaches. Here were
- 42:05Speaker 6: some of the television programs about the AFL.
- 42:08Speaker 3: I don't even know you would you say an AFL show.
- 42:10Speaker 6: He AFL experts, AFL experts, that'd be the right word,
- 42:13Speaker 6: AFL experts talking about what they hope to achieve.
- 42:18Speaker 11: The AFL is stepping up as search for the game's
- 42:20Speaker 11: first First Nation senior coach, speaking with Indigenous leaders, and
- 42:23Speaker 11: expanding programs designed to develop future coaches. So, as we
- 42:27Speaker 11: see here, the next Coach program is returning to target
- 42:30Speaker 11: current players.
- 42:31Speaker 6: The next coach program is the league is actively consulting
- 42:35Speaker 6: with current Indigenous assistant coaches like Nevill Jedda and Xavier Clark. Well,
- 42:39Speaker 6: you know, next they're going to try and convince us
- 42:41Speaker 6: that a woman should be the coach of a men's league.
- 42:44Speaker 6: I mean, seriously, are we really going down this DEI pathway?
- 42:48Speaker 3: Let's be honest.
- 42:49Speaker 6: When you play AFL, the sponsors and the club members.
- 42:53Speaker 6: They pour a lot of money into the game.
- 42:55Speaker 3: You play to.
- 42:56Speaker 6: Win, right, So what happens if you put an indigenous
- 43:00Speaker 6: coach in there just because of the color of their skin.
- 43:03Speaker 6: Who ends up being a total flop, a total failure?
- 43:06Speaker 6: The clubs start losing, then money tanks. Then what happens?
- 43:10Speaker 6: And then you've got to sack the indigenous coach? And
- 43:13Speaker 6: can you imagine the claims of racism to come. As
- 43:17Speaker 6: a fan of the AFL, I couldn't care less what
- 43:19Speaker 6: the color of the coaches. I don't care whether you're black,
- 43:22Speaker 6: you're white, you're Indigenous, you're Chinese, as long as you
- 43:26Speaker 6: are the best person for that role that is going
- 43:30Speaker 6: to make the club money and that you are going
- 43:32Speaker 6: to make sure that the players win matches. Also, I
- 43:36Speaker 6: was won't a bit worried because you too might remember
- 43:38Speaker 6: a couple of years ago the AFL introduced that social
- 43:40Speaker 6: inclusion diversity pitch for its broadcast as well, so that
- 43:45Speaker 6: we're just seeing more and more rungs of DEI filtering
- 43:49Speaker 6: into the AFL. But also they've put this committee in
- 43:52Speaker 6: and everybody should feel safe at work.
- 43:54Speaker 3: But do you really need a committee?
- 43:55Speaker 6: And then what happens when the committee makes advice or
- 43:59Speaker 6: gives recommendation, so what you're forced to implement it and
- 44:01Speaker 6: suddenly everyone's apologizing to each other and tiptoeing around issue.
- 44:05Speaker 3: That's just ridiculous.
- 44:06Speaker 1: I think your point is really well made. When the
- 44:08Speaker 1: AFL is specifically saying we want to see a senior
- 44:11Speaker 1: coach who is Indigenous, I mean, you don't want to
- 44:14Speaker 1: promote positions to be reserved for people of a certain race.
- 44:20Speaker 1: But then they do employ a Indigenous person as a
- 44:24Speaker 1: senior coach. There's so much controversy when a club sacks
- 44:26Speaker 1: a coach. Could you imagine the first club to sack
- 44:29Speaker 1: an indigenous coach, You'd be in all sorts of strife.
- 44:32Speaker 1: It's just a bad move, Merit is the only way
- 44:35Speaker 1: to appoint anybody. And if you're going to have the
- 44:37Speaker 1: first indigenous senior coach, when are we going to have
- 44:39Speaker 1: the first Indigenous commissioner of the AFL? I know, where
- 44:42Speaker 1: does it ever end?
- 44:43Speaker 2: It's ridiculous, And the AFL has a long proud history
- 44:46Speaker 2: of Indigenous players being in indigenous coaches. Indeed, well, if
- 44:49Speaker 2: you wanted to see and this is the thing about
- 44:51Speaker 2: always at the first I mean, if you include the
- 44:52Speaker 2: VFL in what became the AFL, Polypharmer coach Geelong Barry
- 44:57Speaker 2: Cable coached at North Melbourne.
- 44:59Speaker 7: North Melbourne.
- 45:00Speaker 2: So you know it's a bit dodgy, I think trying
- 45:02Speaker 2: to say, oh well it's the first because of course
- 45:04Speaker 2: the AFL is the VFAH essentially, But they just want
- 45:07Speaker 2: to get their headline anyway. Why do we take a
- 45:09Speaker 2: look at what's in tomorrow's newspapers.
- 45:18Speaker 1: Okay, let's take a look at what's making headlines tomorrow.
- 45:21Speaker 1: We'll start KLi. You've got the Australian. What are they
- 45:23Speaker 1: going with tomorrow?
- 45:24Speaker 2: They're talking about the budget, of course, backfiring tax gen
- 45:28Speaker 2: Z victims. It says Jim Charmers has rejected indexing income
- 45:32Speaker 2: tax rates to tackle bracket creep and will instead consider
- 45:35Speaker 2: bolstering the new two hundred and fifty dollars end of
- 45:38Speaker 2: year offset to provide future relief for workers. Has more
- 45:41Speaker 2: than five hundred thousand young Australians were left in the
- 45:43Speaker 2: firing line from a tax assault on sheer market games.
- 45:47Speaker 2: After unveiling a budget on Tuesday night that increase taxes
- 45:50Speaker 2: by net seventy seven billion dollars, over a decade. The
- 45:53Speaker 2: Treasury said he would consider future measures to tackle bracket creep,
- 45:56Speaker 2: but this would not include indexing the tax brackets to inflation,
- 46:01Speaker 2: and the Alban Easy and Doctor Chalmers face down a
- 46:03Speaker 2: backlash from across the Parliament and the business community for
- 46:06Speaker 2: breaking key election commitments in the budget, as they both
- 46:09Speaker 2: said the property tax crackdown was necessary to keep the
- 46:12Speaker 2: dream of home ownership alive for young people. And if
- 46:16Speaker 2: you're saying you're willing to look at measures to address
- 46:18Speaker 2: bracket creep.
- 46:20Speaker 7: But you're not willing to look at the one thing.
- 46:22Speaker 2: That actually addresses bracket creep, which is to index the
- 46:25Speaker 2: tax rates to the rate of inflation, you're simply saying
- 46:29Speaker 2: we want to take more of your money away from you.
- 46:31Speaker 7: There's no other way to look at it, which.
- 46:33Speaker 3: Is basically what the budget has it been all about.
- 46:35Speaker 6: Also, I like that that there's that picture there. PM's
- 46:39Speaker 6: lies about lying down the bottom and they've quoted him
- 46:41Speaker 6: and he also mentioned this on all of the breakfast
- 46:45Speaker 6: programs that he did today. The question was basically, did
- 46:48Speaker 6: you lie? And he says, we've changed our position, So get.
- 46:52Speaker 3: Ready to hear that.
- 46:53Speaker 6: Between now and the continuous cell it'll be we've changed
- 46:57Speaker 6: our position.
- 46:58Speaker 3: We haven't lied.
- 46:59Speaker 1: The other part of that splash Caleb is that economists
- 47:03Speaker 1: are saying that rent will go up about ten percent
- 47:05Speaker 1: as a result no, you know, the government's policies, because
- 47:09Speaker 1: investors will exit the market, leaving fewer rentals. So I mean,
- 47:14Speaker 1: that's bad news for the very people the government says
- 47:16Speaker 1: they're trying to help.
- 47:17Speaker 2: I know, And it's a position that people like me
- 47:19Speaker 2: who rent out of property then have to look at
- 47:21Speaker 2: because it's enticing to then go, well, you know, the
- 47:25Speaker 2: market sitting at such and such a point, so I'll
- 47:28Speaker 2: jack the rent up to meet the market. Now, a
- 47:30Speaker 2: couple of years ago, I let my tenants keep their
- 47:34Speaker 2: rental rate at the same what as it was for
- 47:36Speaker 2: the year before because they were good tenants, right, And
- 47:38Speaker 2: if you've got good tenants, you want to keep good tenants.
- 47:40Speaker 7: And I was quite happy to do that.
- 47:42Speaker 9: But a lot of.
- 47:42Speaker 2: Landlords would look at the market, and to be honest,
- 47:45Speaker 2: I'm probably an idiot for not doing it myself. But
- 47:47Speaker 2: you look at the market and go, well, others are
- 47:50Speaker 2: pulling out, the rents are going up. Why wouldn't I
- 47:53Speaker 2: put my rent up as well? It just puts everyone
- 47:55Speaker 2: in a bad position. Another story on the front of
- 47:57Speaker 2: the oards Taylor's all or nothing fight back plan. Angus
- 48:01Speaker 2: Taylor will throw caution to the wind in his first
- 48:03Speaker 2: budget in reply speech reveal major tax housing in immigration
- 48:07Speaker 2: policies aimed at launching a coalition fight back. My god,
- 48:11Speaker 2: I'm going to hear the word fight back attached to
- 48:12Speaker 2: the coalition head. I know against a dominant labor government
- 48:17Speaker 2: and the rise of Pauline Hanson's One Nation. In response
- 48:20Speaker 2: to Jim Charmer's big taxing and deficits laid in budget,
- 48:23Speaker 2: the Opposition leader on Thursday night will commit the Coalition
- 48:26Speaker 2: to an ambitious tax reform agenda that was abandoned by
- 48:29Speaker 2: Peter Dutton Wicks ahead of the last year's election. The
- 48:32Speaker 2: Australian understands mister Taylor is preparing to promise aspirational Australians
- 48:37Speaker 2: that the Coalition will address the scourge of bracket creep
- 48:40Speaker 2: after One Nation trounced the Liberals and the Nationals in
- 48:43Speaker 2: the Pharaoh by election.
- 48:45Speaker 7: We'll see what form that comes in.
- 48:47Speaker 2: I just hope they don't call it fight back, because,
- 48:49Speaker 2: as you say, will Angus Taylor be able to explain
- 48:52Speaker 2: to GST or whatever other tax means.
- 48:54Speaker 7: Just they announced it.
- 48:55Speaker 1: If he goes into any television studio and he sees
- 48:57Speaker 1: a cake an.
- 49:00Speaker 6: Well he's got to I mean the Coalition have to
- 49:02Speaker 6: sell it now. If like that they can pick this
- 49:06Speaker 6: budget apart something chronic.
- 49:08Speaker 3: So they've got to sell this now.
- 49:10Speaker 6: Speaking of if you have a look at the Curier
- 49:12Speaker 6: mail tomorrow, a part of the coalition's budget apply migrant
- 49:17Speaker 6: welfare ban. New migrants to Australia could be barred from
- 49:21Speaker 6: accessing welfare handouts until they become citizens under a landmark
- 49:25Speaker 6: opposition plan to fight back against runaway migration. Opposition leader
- 49:28Speaker 6: Angus Taylor is expected to make the groundbreaking policy announcement
- 49:32Speaker 6: in his budget reply, in which he will say such
- 49:34Speaker 6: support should be limited to those who have built and
- 49:36Speaker 6: contributed to our country. Now I totally agree with this
- 49:40Speaker 6: absolutely that you know, sorry, you don't deserve your welfare
- 49:44Speaker 6: if you have not contributed this country. But again I
- 49:46Speaker 6: stress this, we need a number, a number on migration.
- 49:51Speaker 3: Stop the dilly dallying.
- 49:52Speaker 6: Tell us how many migrants you're going to bring in
- 49:54Speaker 6: per year because as we found out from the budget
- 49:56Speaker 6: last night, migration is going up and labor on not
- 50:00Speaker 6: doing anything about it for another two years. They're taking
- 50:02Speaker 6: this to an election so they can get the migrant vote.
- 50:05Speaker 3: So what is the coalition going to do about it?
- 50:07Speaker 3: Give us a figure.
- 50:08Speaker 1: It's funny you say that, because the first thing I
- 50:09Speaker 1: thought when I saw this headline is he's going with that. Yes,
- 50:13Speaker 1: so he doesn't have to name a figure. The attention
- 50:16Speaker 1: will be on this might be wrong. We'll find out
- 50:19Speaker 1: tomorrow night. Let's go to the front page of the
- 50:22Speaker 1: Herald Sun. What are we doing? Elderly weight on Age
- 50:26Speaker 1: for Care is the headline. Older Victorians are languishing on
- 50:30Speaker 1: wait lists, according to figures that show it takes more
- 50:32Speaker 1: than a year to get a home care package or
- 50:35Speaker 1: aged care bed. Damning weightlist data shows the average time
- 50:39Speaker 1: Victorians wait for applying to getting care has blown out
- 50:43Speaker 1: to three hundred and fifty four days. That's aw So
- 50:46Speaker 1: you need to anticipate a year in advance of when
- 50:49Speaker 1: you're going to require this care to make sure that
- 50:52Speaker 1: you get it when you need it.
- 50:53Speaker 6: You know, there's so many shortages in the healthcare sector
- 50:57Speaker 6: as it is. You've got healthcare workers, age care workers,
- 51:02Speaker 6: they're absolutely run off their feet and you do worry
- 51:05Speaker 6: about patient safety and priority, even though all these homes
- 51:08Speaker 6: do so well out there. But now that the waiting
- 51:12Speaker 6: list has blown out, it is a worry in an
- 51:14Speaker 6: aging population.
- 51:16Speaker 9: It's terrible.
- 51:16Speaker 2: And we call ourselves a first world country. Maybe you
- 51:19Speaker 2: need that aged care though, James, given you can't remember
- 51:22Speaker 2: what stories we're talking about.
- 51:23Speaker 7: On the front of the pot, I was.
- 51:24Speaker 1: So excited about the ban on migrants getting welfare. I
- 51:27Speaker 1: wanted to story all over again Harold's son. And as
- 51:31Speaker 1: I made that mistake, I could see smirking out.
- 51:33Speaker 7: Of the got him, got him good and proper.
- 51:35Speaker 2: On the front of the advertiser tomorrow it sees exclusive
- 51:38Speaker 2: malle steps on the gas back in freak. It says,
- 51:42Speaker 2: a ban on your stazz are Paul Sterek, a ban
- 51:45Speaker 2: on gas racking in the state's southeast will be axed
- 51:47Speaker 2: by a premier Peter Malanaskis who says the Iran war
- 51:50Speaker 2: has shown Australia has to take energy security and sovereignty. Seriously, hallolouh.
- 51:58Speaker 2: Just common sense stuff is And again you know this
- 52:01Speaker 2: bloke Malanawskas is just undefeated in being a sensible labor
- 52:06Speaker 2: premier and time and again he.
- 52:08Speaker 7: Shows up his liberal colleagues. It has to be said, yeah.
- 52:11Speaker 6: God, the Greens are going to be having a field
- 52:13Speaker 6: day with this one.
- 52:13Speaker 3: Can't wait.
- 52:14Speaker 1: We've only got a few moments left, but the Gold
- 52:16Speaker 1: Coast bulletin is worth mentioning Danika Trump Tower, Trump.
- 52:19Speaker 3: Tower no more yet.
- 52:21Speaker 6: The Trump family has pulled out of a controversial plan
- 52:23Speaker 6: one point two billion dollars supertower development on the Gold Coast,
- 52:26Speaker 6: which is a shame.
- 52:26Speaker 3: It would have been nice, it is indeed.
- 52:28Speaker 1: All right. That's it from us, Thanks for tuning in.
- 52:31Speaker 1: We'll see again tomorrow night. That's it from us. Goodnight,