Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 145 - 10/21/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 145 - 10/21/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 145 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Monday. A new week begins as we head
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down the home stretch here of October.
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Before you know it, they'll be trick or treaters knocking at
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your door. Halloween season, it is peak
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foliage. If you are in New England, you
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know what I'm talking about. All the nice, you know, orange,
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yellows, Reds. If you don't live in New
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England, you probably should visit sometime in the fall.
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But it is a great time of year to be betting on sports.
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We had a heck of a weekend. We got a lot to talk about on
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today's podcast. And we're going to see if we can
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keep our hot streak going here because looking toward tonight,
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kind of interesting slate. Now we have a double header in
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the NFL. So we have two games here,
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Baltimore, Tampa Bay at 8:15, Chargers in the Arizona
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Cardinals at 9:00. But that's about it.
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I was looking for an NHL play because we're hot here in the
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NHL, but there's only one game, not much movement.
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It really is annoying to me that tomorrow we have 16 NHL games.
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Like couldn't you give me like 8 today and 8:00 tomorrow?
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I don't know why you got to give me one today and 16 tomorrow.
1:32
Anyway, I won't argue with the schedule makers, but we do have
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the NBA returning tomorrow, Nick, Celtics, T Wolves, Lakers.
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I want to go over again at after we talk about the Monday at
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football doubleheader. I want to give you again MY2 NBA
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win total bets that I'm holding in pocket.
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I also want to mention that rhythm, who does a great job of
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powering this pod just went live with their NBA predictions.
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So all their player props and game bets are now live in the
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app. So welcome back NBA as NBA
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returns tomorrow and then we have WNBA season is over with we
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have baseball, which give it a couple days here.
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I'm kind of annoyed we got to wait until Friday, but Yankees,
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Dodgers, which should be should be a good match up here.
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East Coast, West Coast, two big historic franchises and then of
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course, before you know it, we're going to get some college
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basketball. So tonight it's going to be all
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NFL. But point whole point in me kind
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of mentioning all the sports is that get ready.
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It's about to be very, very busy in the light in the life of a
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sports better. So I'm very much looking forward
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to it for tonight. I got a three pack for you guys,
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all NFL. So I have two plays on the early
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game, Baltimore, Tampa Bay. I got to play on the side and I
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got a player prop and then I got to play on the total in the
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chargers Arizona game. So I'm hoping that with our
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three pack, we can find a way to go 2 and one and eek out a
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winning day. Now looking back toward the
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weekend, number one, I want to thank everyone who tuned into
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the rhythm live stream Sunday sweats.
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It was a great day for my my guy James Santor who crushed it with
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his dog model. Even some trendy dogs
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unfortunately came through. But as always, that is a 11:00
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AM Eastern Time to noon live stream on Twitter.
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You can just log right in, click the live stream.
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You can throw out throw out some questions at us.
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We always go over the player props in late game day bets.
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So I always am thankful and really happy when I see some
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some names that I recognize join the chat.
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So if you missed it this week, no worries, we'll be back at it
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for next week. Now last time we talked guys, we
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continued our hot streak. Friday was our fourth straight
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winning day on the pod. If you remember that was a 21 in
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one day plus 0.53 units. Had a couple great wins with
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Oklahoma State plus 9 1/2. They should have won that game.
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They lost it but covered the number Hurricanes in hockey.
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That was our fifth straight hockey win.
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FSU could not cover in Nevada. Pushed the three, but I was
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winning Friday. Another good Saturday, 3 and 1 +
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1.3 units. Had a nice hit with Elise Reed
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and biting in the UFC with a good line move as well as a big
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youth advantage. Auburn came up bigley and the
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key with Auburn was I was very proud of the fact that we got a
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good number early in the week because Auburn ended up losing
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by 4. Now why is that important?
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Because if you got the four and a half, which you talked about
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earlier in the week, you catch that Auburn bet.
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Unfortunately, I think they closed 3 and after even 3, you
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get it late, you lose. So the importance of not just
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picking the right side, but getting the best number also got
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Carolina, South Carolina, the Cox getting it done +3.
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They closed -1 dog to fave. Absolutely rolled Lost Arkansas.
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So it was a three and one. 1.3 unit Saturday, Sunday, 1 and 2
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-. 1.3 units got the Packers. That's why you money line short
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favorites. But the Vikings blew it late in
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the Soj, same old Jets, just pathetic.
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You start off pretty hot and then you just get rolled.
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And there I was with The Jets even though I'm money line and
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beat the closing line at round of 2.
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They close 2 1/2. But this just goes to show you
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guys as I want to mention it before we get into our sweats
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for tonight, but we have seen a two week stretch for the public
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that I don't remember seeing anything like this in quite a
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while. Favorites, easiest way to tell
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where the public is first is by favorites versus dogs.
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And then we're going to talk about that percentages, but
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favorites in the NFL, Weeks one through 4, they weren't very
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good. 27 and 35 against the spread, 44%.
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We were humming with a lot of dogs.
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Weeks one to four, weeks five to seven.
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So week 5 until now, favorites are 27 and 13 against the
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spread, 68%. So chalk is crushing it.
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Second straight big week for the public.
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The top six public plays at Bet MGM went six and O against the
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spread. 83% on the eagles -379% on the commanders -9 and a half.
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72% on Bengals -5 1/2 here. Your trendy dogs. 72% on Lions
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plus one and a half. 70% on Chiefs plus one and a half. 63%
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on bills -9 1/2. So it's just been a weird couple
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weeks here. A lot of favorites the public
5:55
is, is saying the sports betting thing is pretty damn easy.
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You just take the quote UN quote better team and you become a
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millionaire. Well, they're, they're getting
6:02
the last laugh right now, But will that continue?
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I, I know it won't continue. We're going to see some
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aggression. Just the question is how long
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until we see that take place? Because tonight 65% of bets are
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on Baltimore -3 1/2 -, 469% are on the chargers -1 -, 1 1/2.
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So with that being said, let's look at some sweats here for
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time. Let's see if we can keep it
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rolling and and get our week off started right.
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So double headed tonight all Monday Night Football and then I
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am going to talk a little bit of NBA with some win totals.
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You might have probably already know them, maybe you played
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them, maybe you didn't. I hope you played one of them
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because the line already moved a little bit.
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But first game on the board, Baltimore and Tampa Bay, 8:15 PM
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Eastern Time. First game here tonight and we
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have the Ravens coming in four and two.
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Remember they started O and two. They've now won four straight,
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just took down the commanders 30 to 23.
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They pushed as a 7 point home favorite.
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Meanwhile, the Bucks four and two just crushed the Saints 51
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to 27, easily covering as a 3 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
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So what do you see across the market here?
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Well, even though favorites, popular teams, Rd. favorites
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have been crushing it, this line's coming back to the
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contrarian home dog. So can we finally get a dog to
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bark? Guys, I'm taking the points of
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Tampa Bay. Baltimore across the market is
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getting 65% of spread bets. This is the public who's had two
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good weeks in a row saying this thing's easy.
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Baltimore's the better team. Lay the points of Baltimore.
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That is a 5 second handicap. But here's my question.
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If Baltimore is getting 2/3 of bets and they open -4 1/2, even
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someone book open -5 why is the line down to 3 1/2 or 4?
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Why is the line moving toward Tampa if Tampa is the contrarian
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play? Why are the oddsmakers dropping
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line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're
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already playing Baltimore to begin with and they've already
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had two really good weeks in a row?
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Tells me that the oddsmakers have taken a position on Tampa
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Bay moving the number in favor of the Bucks even though
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Baltimore is the popular bet. Aside from that reverse line
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move line going to Tampa even though they're only getting
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around 1/3 of bets. You have a great contrarian play
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here just in general. Tampa bet against the public
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after Publix been crushing it, but also prime time dogs.
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Now they haven't been great this year, but they are 55% against
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the spread since 2020. Maybe you put a little more
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stock into this system here. The Baker Mayfield as a dog when
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Baker Mayfield is getting points, he's two and one against
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the spread this year, but he's 11 and five against the spread,
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69% as a dog since joining the Bucks.
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Now we've also seen some over money show up here.
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This total open around 47. It's been about up to 50 and the
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over is getting a lot of bets in dollars, around 80% of bets in
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dollars. The Ravens are five and one to
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the over best in the NFL. The Bucks are four and two to
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the over six best in the NFL. So my question with the total
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is, you know, do we see this get up to 50 1/2?
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Is there buyback where it gets back down to 49 1/2?
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Now there are some systems here that would lead you to the
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under. Again, remember it opened around
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47. So if you're playing the over,
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yes, you're with the line move, but you're also getting the
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worst of the number. If you do want to go contrarian
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and play the under only getting around 25% of bets, you do have
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prime time unders 47 or more, 57% this season when you have a
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prime time game in general, those have cashed at a pretty
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good clip. Now whether it's going to be
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clear 75° tonight, but you will have a little bit of wind, 10
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mph. That being said, I don't want
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anything to do with the total. It did rise and I kind of want
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to be with that sharp move. But also, if I'm playing the
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over, I'm getting the worst of the number after it's moved, you
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could bite your lip and go under to me, I'm waiting on buyback.
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Like if you do start to see it get down to 49 1/2, that can be
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an indication of late money breaking under.
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But my play here guys, after a couple weeks and really one
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thing I, I kind of was, I don't know, I don't know, a little gun
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shy, maybe a little bit with just my, I liked all three plays
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quite a bit over the weekend, Packers, bikes, jets said, hey,
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can we get 2 out of three? Obviously only got one out of
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three with the Packers, and that was dicey, obviously, but there
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are a couple other games. Then I was like, man, I really
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like Seattle plus three. That's a line freeze.
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I didn't play it. They end up winning and
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covering. Then there's one more.
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You know, Casey, I don't kick myself too much.
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That line actually went to 2 1/2 San Fran.
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But when I was in the Super Bowl in Vegas, I took the position of
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Mahomes as a dog. So that happened to cash once
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again. The other one was, I think it
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was the Raiders +7 contrarian. They end up losing by 5 and then
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who was it? I think I feel like there's one
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more Cleveland end up losing by 7.
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That was, I want to say that line got as high as 6 1/2.
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Maybe it was really just the Seattle game I was kicking
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myself for not playing. But either way, I don't think
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it's ever a problem to limit your bets.
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I just feel like we're in kind of this weird, you know, eye of
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the storm right now where these obvious public favorites and
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public plays are covering. So I don't want to push it too
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much. With that being said, I am going
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to go with Tampa tonight. The easy bet is just play
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Baltimore with all this public, you know, Rd. favorite favorite
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systems or favorite action coming through right now.
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But if every if the public's crushing in Publix on Baltimore,
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why is the line coming back down to Tampa?
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So I'm going to take the +4. Now all the a lot of books are
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at 3 1/2, but I did find a couple books that are at 4 right
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now. You can get Tampa +4 at ESPN BET
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and Fanatics both are on -115 So as always, shop around if you if
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you dare buck this public two week stretch where again,
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they're the drunk guys at the bar laughing at us.
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If you got the stones enough to go the other way, I am going to
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follow the sharp reverse line move and we are due for a dog to
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bark here in a contrarian spot. So I'm going to go plus 4 Tampa
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again, a lot of three and halfs for both.
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ESPN Benton Fanatics have the four now player prop.
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I'm going to go Baker Mayfield over passing yards.
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Now you could have gotten over 253 1/2 earlier today.
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Now you can get over 254 1/2 at at FanDuel, but shop around
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because you also have some other books at 2:55 and a half, 256
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1/2. So you tend to see, you know,
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some discrepancies here when it comes to player props.
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But I jumped on the over 253 1/2 earlier today.
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Again, now your best numbers, FanDuel over 254 1/2.
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But here's my my angle with Baker Mayfield #1 Baker Mayfield
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has gone over this number in two of his last three games.
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He threw for 325 last week. He threw for 347 a few weeks
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ago, also at home. His home Rd. splits are
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interesting. On the road, he doesn't go over
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this number quite often. At home, he's 7:00 and 2:00 to
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the over his last nine games. The Ravens, I don't.
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This was kind of surprising to me.
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I knew they were good against the run.
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They're actually, I believe number one in the NFL against
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the run, but they're dead last against the pass.
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They're giving up to 75.7 yards per game.
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So if they're giving up a lot in the air, hopefully that's a
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benefit there to Baker Mayfield. Bucks are also a dog in a high
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total game. Total on this one is 50 and has
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a dog with a lot of with high points, high point total.
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Number one, you're expecting a lot of offense #2 if you're the
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dog, you got to throw the ball, keep pace, catch up, try to have
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a backdoor cover if that's what it takes.
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But also, you know, you kind of look at the situation of kind of
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maybe the game script here, like if Tampa's smart, which I hope
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they are, are you really going to run the ball, bang your head
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against the wall, literally and figuratively against the best
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rush defense in the NFL? I think if you're smart, you
13:21
throw it and you try to take advantage of that porous
13:24
secondary. Cherry on top here, Baker, you
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know, we got to have a rhythm edge.
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Baker over 253 1/2 / 254 1/2. Now, rhythm is predicting or
13:34
projecting. We should combine those two
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words, project, projecting. I don't know split the two
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anyway, rhythm is predicting 268.2 so that is a nice little,
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you know, 15 yard cushion. Add it all up.
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I'm looking for Baker to throw the ball quite a bit tonight.
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Let's go Baker over now 254 1/2 and I'm going to take that with
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Tampa +4. Now to the second game.
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Chargers and Arizona Cardinals 9:00 Eastern Time tonight in the
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desert. Chargers come into this one,
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three and two just snapped A2 game losing skid with a 2316 win
14:07
over the Broncos covered as a three-point Rd. favorite.
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Meanwhile, the Cardinals two and four, they've dropped three of
14:13
their last four just got rolled by the Packers 34 to 13.
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Did not cover as a 5 1/2 point Rd. dog.
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I remember because I was on them.
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Now, what are we seeing across the market for this one?
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Well, it's interesting because the Baltimore Tampa game, it's
14:28
pretty much been all movement toward Tampa Chargers Arizona.
14:31
It's kind of both been back and forth because we open this game
14:34
around to pick em and if it's a pick em game, obviously
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oddsmakers are saying it's a coin flip.
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But you got to think about, you know, it was used.
14:41
It used to be 3 points for home field advantage.
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It's probably more like 1 1/2 or two.
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So you would imagine, you know, neutral site Chargers would be,
14:49
you know, favored by 1 1/2 or two, something like that.
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If you kind of extrapolate what home field would be and what the
14:54
current number is, or maybe they're probably like -3 if you
14:57
apply the -1 anyway, it opened out a pick.
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The early move was toward the Chargers.
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I get it. You know, you look at Chargers
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better record Harbaugh's doing, you know, picking up right where
15:07
he left off after he left the 49ers.
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Arizona obviously has been bad for quite a few years.
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Easy play Chargers. And again, we have these
15:15
favorites and these Rd. teams, Rd. favorites in particular,
15:18
popular teams performing very well.
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So basically, you know, if you're a public better, you
15:23
don't need the podcast today. Take the popular Rd. favorites,
15:26
Baltimore Chargers, parlay them again.
15:29
Again, that's what the public saying.
15:30
I'm not saying do that again, you can do whatever you want.
15:33
But with that being said, it opened up at a pick.
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It got all the way up to chargers -2 1/2 early in the
15:38
week. And I was wondering, hey, do we
15:40
get to 3? Is this just a straight
15:41
contrarian play where I can buy low on Arizona plus three?
15:44
Well, that never happened. It never really got to three,
15:46
and now it's down to 1. So early movements toward
15:49
Chargers, but all that late money is breaking back toward
15:52
Arizona. Tells me we had some smart
15:54
money. Take Arizona plus 2 1/2 + 2.
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Now the lines down to one. Now there are a couple shops,
16:00
You know, I see one shop at 1 1/2.
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I see another that's juiced up like it may get to 1 1/2.
16:05
If you're making me lean aside, I do lean Arizona here.
16:08
You know, if you can shop around and get a 1 1/2, obviously the
16:11
hook could be critical. Also, one and a halfs could be
16:13
teased up to 7 1/2. That's a Wong teaser.
16:16
Going through three and going through 7.
16:18
Aside from the late movement and the contrarian play with
16:21
Arizona, you also have a dog off a blowout loss.
16:24
Now this is system that I was introduced to you know when I
16:26
first started working in the sports betting industry at my
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old job, Sports Insights where I learned a thing or two about a
16:32
thing or two. But teams off a blot loss
16:36
actually dogs off a blot loss by 20 points or more.
16:39
They rebound the next week to go 93 and 73 against the spread
16:43
56%. Now the angle there is when you
16:46
lose by 20 or more like Arizona losing by 21 to the Packers
16:50
public wants nothing to do with you.
16:51
You got rolled, you look bad. Why on earth would I want to
16:54
back you the next week? But actually from a buy low
16:56
standpoint, that's where you're going to find the greatest value
16:59
to buy low on those teams. Because in the NFL it's a week
17:02
to week league. When you get rolled, you're
17:04
probably not as bad as as you as you think.
17:06
When you ever blow out win, you're probably not as good as
17:09
you think. You're probably somewhere in the
17:10
middle. So this is just a classic buy
17:12
low on Arizona. Also, if you'll get Kyler
17:16
Murray, he is 27 and 16 ATS as a dog in his career, 63% and it
17:22
will be a classic buy low sell high in terms of a dog in
17:25
Arizona who didn't cover last week against the favorite
17:27
tonight and the Chargers who did cover the previous week.
17:31
So add it all up. I lean Arizona.
17:34
I just am a little hesitant in terms of just getting A1 when I
17:38
could have gotten a 2 1/2 or two.
17:40
So I'll lean Arizona. If you want to play them again,
17:42
get try to get the 1 1/2 or tease them up.
17:44
But my only bet on Chargers Arizona is going to be the total
17:48
and I'm going to do something I don't normally do.
17:49
I'm going to take an over. I think there's an opportunity
17:52
here for this line to go or for this total to go over.
17:56
So reason why I like the over. A couple things.
17:59
Number one, we have seen it rise it open 43 1/2.
18:03
It's now up to 44. I see a couple books that are
18:05
even at 44 1/2. So it's risen just like
18:09
Baltimore, Tampa. But unlike Baltimore Tampa, I
18:11
still feel like there's some value there because we're not
18:13
that far off the triggering number.
18:15
I got over 44 at Bet MGM Caesars also has 44, but that you do
18:20
have FanDuel ESPN bet at 44 1/2. So again, a 2420 game, you know,
18:25
27 to I'm bad at math, whatever that would be.
18:31
What is that 2719 that gave you the wrong one?
18:36
But anyway, in that situation, you're not that far off the the
18:41
triggering number If I'm looking at Baltimore, Tampa at open 47
18:44
and I'm three points off the opener.
18:46
So that's just hesitant in terms of, you know, really chasing
18:49
kind of the steam there. You're close to the the
18:51
triggering number. So I got over 44.
18:54
I really like the bet split to the over.
18:55
It's only getting at this point 67% bets, but 86% dollars.
19:00
So I don't think it's just public, but also low bets,
19:02
higher dollars to the over. And then this is also
19:04
interesting because, you know, I love my primetime unders and
19:07
haven't been that bad on Thursday and Sunday night.
19:10
But on Monday night, for whatever reason, and I threw
19:14
this at Jeff Schwartz, a buddy of mine who used to play in the
19:16
NFL. I I joined the the stormy money
19:19
moves show today and I asked Jeff about it.
19:22
But Monday Night Football, we've seen the over go six and two
19:25
this year. For whatever reason, there's
19:27
been a lot of points on Monday night.
19:29
And I was thinking to Jeff, Hey, is that the extra day of game
19:31
planning of resting? He just thought it was, you
19:34
know, a lot of good quarterbacks playing on Monday night.
19:36
But for whatever reason, we've seen these Monday Night Football
19:38
totals go over. The other angle here is that
19:41
State Farm Stadium roof is expected to be closed.
19:45
Remember, this used to be Glendale, I think stadium, but
19:49
with that roof being closed, ideal conditions for offense and
19:52
the kicking game. Also, you have Arizona giving up
19:55
27 points a game. So they're off.
19:57
Their defense hasn't been great, but they can't put up points
20:00
themselves. Long story short, guys, I see I
20:03
saw this total tick up a little bit.
20:05
We're not off the triggering number that far.
20:06
We got a good bet split. And I think this could be an
20:09
opportunity to go over. And then the cherry on top of
20:12
the over is that I have a rhythm system match that says this
20:16
total should be 46.8. So it's the combination of the
20:20
line, the line rising, the good bet split and the rhythm match
20:25
that tells me, hey, let's see if we can get some points here
20:27
tonight. So I'm going to go over 44
20:29
Arizona Chargers. Of course, I'll be rooting for
20:32
anyone who takes Arizona, but my only play will be that over.
20:35
So 3 pack tonight. Can we find a way to get two of
20:37
them? Tampa Bay plus 4 Baker now over
20:40
254 1/2 and the Chargers Cardinals over 44.
20:46
Now, as I mentioned, no NHL. There's only one game and didn't
20:49
see any system matches. No NBA, but the NBA does return
20:53
tomorrow. So I wanted to mention and just
20:55
kind of, you know, reiterate the fact that I have two win totals
20:59
that I'm excited to sweat in the NBA this year.
21:02
The first one, Oklahoma City Thunder, if you missed it on the
21:05
pod early last week, I'm on OK C Thunder over 56 1/2 wins now.
21:11
I hope you guys played it when we mentioned it because now it's
21:13
at 57 1/2 at ESPN bet you can get 57 1/2 at -110 So not a bad
21:18
number. But remember looking at how a
21:21
line moved as well as the bet splits.
21:23
And then really leaning on if you're going to go over,
21:25
regardless of the sport, stability and the growth of a
21:28
team versus if you take it under a team that has a lot of issues
21:31
and a lot of new faces. Like, you know, for example, I'm
21:34
on the Patriots under 4 1/2 wins.
21:36
I'm feeling pretty good about it right now.
21:37
I didn't feel good about it after they took down the, the
21:40
the Bengals, surprisingly in week 1.
21:42
My angle there was there's a good bet split.
21:45
The the total had fallen. And I'm betting against the team
21:49
with a rookie coach, you know, rookie quarterback, a lot of new
21:51
faces, a lot, a lot of transition.
21:54
And again, I was happy to see the paint.
21:55
I was like, OK, they got up 10 nothing yesterday in London.
21:58
I'm like, oh, this ain't good for the win total.
22:00
But then they got rolled. They got rolled.
22:01
So I was happy to see Drake may show promise and yet the
22:04
Patriots lose for the under 4 1/2.
22:06
But the opposite is playing an over on a team who's bringing
22:10
back everybody who's got a good core, maybe has some good
22:13
offseason additions and has good data behind them.
22:17
And that team is OK C for me. Open 55 1/2.
22:21
Got bet up to 56 1/2. I went over 56 1/2 last week.
22:24
Now it's 57 1/2 if you want to play it.
22:26
But from a data standpoint, the totals ticked up, bet splits,
22:31
82% bets, 95% money at Bet MGM is on the over.
22:35
So low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
22:37
And also you look at a team that's just getting better each
22:40
year. Over the last Four Seasons, they
22:43
had 22 wins, then 24 wins, then forty wins, then they
22:47
breakthrough with 57 last year. This is also the fifth year for
22:51
Mike Dano, who again, I believe he was coach of the year.
22:54
Maybe it was last year or the year before, but you have kind
22:57
of stability with the coaching staff.
22:59
You have the same young core with SGA, Jalen Williams, Chet
23:02
Holmgren, Dort. You bring in some good additions
23:05
with Caruso Hartenstein and Hartenstein got hurt, but he
23:08
should be back within the month, within about a month.
23:11
Caruso and Dort and these other guys play really good defense
23:14
and the OKC Thunder were top five in both offensive and
23:17
defensive efficiency last year. So we have the data telling us
23:21
it's an over and we have stability and growth from a
23:24
young core with some good additions.
23:26
So that's my angle to go over. OK, C again, over 56 and half
23:30
wins. If you didn't, if you missed it
23:32
now pretty much 57 half is your only number.
23:35
The other team that I want to mention was the Boston Celtics.
23:37
This isn't as much of A data play for me as it is kind of
23:41
taking position on a team that from I don't know the
23:45
perspective of seeing how everything's going off season
23:48
and and kind of looking at how this team has, you know, gotten
23:52
even deeper in terms of the rotations.
23:54
It's kind of a play on them continued content to continue to
23:57
play well. So I'm on the Celtics over 58
23:59
1/2 win total. You could have gotten plus one O
24:02
5. I think it's like even out a
24:04
little bit like -110 but what I like about this one is obviously
24:08
A-Team who was great last year, won the NBA title 64 and 18.
24:12
So even if you take a step back, you know, and your your five
24:15
games worse this year, you know 59 wins still cashes us over.
24:19
But I'm going to look at a couple things.
24:20
One, I just mentioned the the kind of core and the growth of a
24:24
team like OK, C Well, now Joe Missoula is entering year
24:28
three-year 1, he made a lot of mistakes.
24:30
Year 2, he wins the title. Year three, even more
24:32
experience. Everybody got paid.
24:35
So again, dishing out money like it's like it's Monopoly money to
24:39
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown. And I don't disagree with any of
24:42
these moves, but Porzingis, even though he's banged up, he'll be
24:45
back probably by December. Drew Holiday, Derek White,
24:49
everybody got paid. But my other angle here is
24:52
motivation. And I think if you win the title
24:54
and everyone gets their money, you would think, oh, rest on
24:57
your laurels. Hey, are you going to be as
24:59
hungry as you were when you're making less money and everyone
25:01
told you you couldn't do it? You know, maybe the thought
25:03
process is no, maybe you won't be as good.
25:06
But I think there's a couple angles to to still think this
25:08
team will be motivated. 1 Jayson Tatum, he basically got benched
25:12
in the Olympics. There's a big story about this,
25:15
lot of talk around Boston about it.
25:17
He's trying to get his first MVP and again, he didn't win the NBA
25:22
Finals MVP. So I think there's reasons for
25:24
Tatum. There's still kind of
25:25
achievements for him to reach. Jalen Brown didn't make the
25:29
didn't make the Olympic team. He got snubbed and he I think he
25:33
was second or third team, but you know, he's, you know, not
25:36
really regarded as the, you know, one of the best players,
25:39
which he thinks he should be. So I think with Tatum and Brown
25:42
motivated and a really deep team who again has a pretty good core
25:46
with a really deep bench and also analytics, it kind of is
25:50
frustrating. If you watch the Celtics, they
25:51
just shoot a million threes. But there is some proof in the
25:55
pudding when it comes to, you know, 3 point shooting attempts.
26:00
And actually Missoula said one time 3 point shooting attempt
26:03
rate is the most important stat in basketball, which maybe it
26:06
is, maybe it isn't. That was surprising to hear.
26:09
But they play a very analytics game shooting the three, which I
26:12
actually think does benefit them in today's NBA.
26:15
So you had all up those are my two win totals that have in
26:17
pocket going to the going into the season opener tomorrow.
26:21
OK C / 56 1/2 now 57 1/2, Boston over 58 1/2.
26:26
And tomorrow we do have Celtics and the Knicks right now Celtics
26:31
are -5 1/2 total did tick up. I saw 222 up to 223.
26:36
So we'll we'll see if maybe we have an over opportunity
26:39
tomorrow. And then if you look at T
26:41
Wolves, Lakers, T Wolves open around -1 1/2.
26:44
That lines down to 1. Do we get to pick them?
26:46
It looks like money might be going toward the Lakers.
26:49
And we did see that total really fall.
26:51
It opened as high as 225. It's down to 219.
26:55
So either way, guys, we'll give it another day.
26:57
But starting tomorrow, we should have some NBA to talk about,
26:59
which is fine with me. And then I can't wait to, you
27:02
know, re up my Ken Palm $20 yearly subscription, probably
27:06
the best value in all of on all of sports betting to get all
27:09
that data. But I can't wait to fire it up
27:11
for the college basketball season, which is right around
27:14
the corner. And then NHL, I was hoping for
27:16
an NHL play tonight. I was maybe thinking Tampa.
27:19
The line did move toward Tampa a little bit.
27:22
They're like plus 125 down to plus 115.
27:24
But all my system matches are mostly on favorites.
27:26
So I don't really have anything there.
27:28
So I'm looking toward tomorrow. I'm thinking we could have some
27:31
betting spots in the NHL with a 16 game slate.
27:34
But that about does it. Everybody another a pod here in
27:37
the books, Episode 145 of the all systems Gopod powered by
27:40
rhythm. This is the part of the pod
27:42
where you wrap things up. And before I bid you a do I
27:44
leave you with a couple things First, I'm going to ask you to
27:47
do me a big favor. Could you please give this
27:50
podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
27:54
It only take a couple seconds. Go to rate and review.
27:56
Click the five stars. But it would mean a lot to me to
27:58
help us to grow the pod, to gain more, more listens, gain more,
28:03
more credibility, rise up the charts.
28:05
If there's an option to follow, click the follow button.
28:08
That way it'll be in your library and it'll populate as
28:10
soon as it drops each day. You'll be the first to know.
28:13
And of course, if you want to recommend it to a friend or
28:14
leave a nice review, that'll be great as well.
28:17
But seriously, a five star review, very basic, easy thing
28:20
you can do to help me grow the pod.
28:22
Secondly, if you enjoy these breakdowns, the style of
28:25
betting, not betting based on what we think or want or hope
28:28
will happen because in the end that's a losing strategy, but
28:31
bet based on what the market is telling you where the money is
28:34
flowing. You know the old phrase, follow
28:36
the money, it's important and there's a reason for it.
28:39
I would put an addendum to that and say follow the smart money,
28:41
not the public money. Anyway, if this style of betting
28:44
appeals to you and you want to learn more about data-driven
28:46
betting or you want to make my day, let me know you appreciate
28:49
the hard work that I put in hosting this pod each day.
28:52
Then do me a solid and do yourself a solid or gift it as a
28:55
stocking stuffer or a present someone's birthday.
28:58
Go buy them my book or buy the book for yourself.
29:01
It's called the it's called the everything guide to sports
29:03
betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
29:05
the everything guide to sports betting.
29:07
Pick up a copy for you or for friend or a buddy of yours who
29:11
parlays everything that actually that that public buddies
29:14
actually probably doing pretty well in the NFL last couple
29:16
weeks, unfortunately. But chapter on bankroll
29:21
management, how lines are set, how and why they move, how to
29:23
read line movement, how to identify sharp action, how to go
29:25
contrarian, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
29:28
for the best line, all included in the everything guide to
29:31
sports betting. So support the team, buy a copy,
29:34
give it to that friend of yours who maybe is looking to start
29:37
betting on sports but doesn't have any freaking clue how to
29:40
start. And guess what?
29:41
If you pick up a copy of the book, bring it to the sports
29:44
book, I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer.
29:46
We'll sweat some games together. I'll get you a ginger ale.
29:49
If you don't drink, that's fine too.
29:51
Next, have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice
29:54
Reel or Rhythm yet? I hope you have, but if not, you
29:57
can still do it now and I'd highly recommend you do it right
29:59
now. All you got to do to sign up is
30:01
click the custom links that are located in the bio description
30:04
of each podcast. So it'll say something like an
30:07
episode 145. Josh dishes out a three pack of
30:09
sweats for Monday at Football Tonight and goes over a couple
30:12
NBA win totals. OK, scroll below that go down a
30:15
little bit. You should see a couple links
30:17
for Rhythm and Juice Real, my two favorite sports betting apps
30:19
because they help me win. They're going to help you win.
30:22
Rhythm, of course, for their AI backed models and predictions
30:25
for player props and best bets for game predictions.
30:29
And then you also have juice reel with a ton of great
30:32
features, including the ability to sync up your sports books to
30:35
the app. That way you bet your your game
30:37
in your sports book app, it goes right to the juice reel app and
30:41
you'll get a running record of your performance.
30:42
You can keep yourself honest, learn more about you know how
30:45
you're how you're doing, not just in terms of your record,
30:48
but you know, am I doing well with this versus that, you know,
30:51
hone in on your strengths and weaknesses, but then also juice
30:54
reel has those AI backed best bet picks from Robo Jackson each
30:58
day. You can tell those if you're
31:00
interested. You also have the arbitrage
31:02
opportunities that sharp mush plays and the breakdowns actual
31:05
bets and dollars wagered on games based upon people who have
31:08
synced up their sports books to the app.
31:10
So both are included or include a 7 day free trial.
31:14
Again, give it a shot. I think you're going to like it
31:16
and it's going to be two more tools to add to your data-driven
31:18
sports betting toolbox. With that being said, let's wrap
31:22
things up with a couple last final thoughts.
31:24
One whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
31:28
River in Rhode Island, the brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
31:30
Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain
31:33
Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the
31:36
woods in Massachusetts. We're out in the desert where
31:39
the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his
31:41
number runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the
31:44
South Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
31:46
stadium swimming pool when he catch a big ticket at Circa,
31:50
wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
31:51
You're going to show me since Friday, an Oklahoma State
31:55
ticket, a Hurricanes ticket, the NHL Hurricanes.
31:58
How about Elise Reid in the UFC biting Auburn getting a good
32:02
number, South Carolina, the Packers.
32:04
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
32:06
you. We're going to post about the
32:07
book sweatshop contrarian plays all night long.
32:10
So wish you the best of luck. Everyone have a great Monday
32:13
night as always, remember, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
32:17
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
32:19
house. Always be with the smart money,
32:21
never against it. Well, smart money win every
32:22
time. Of course not.
32:24
There's no such thing as a lock or a guarantee.
32:26
But remember, we're always playing the long game.
32:28
If we can identify that, those opportunities where we can be
32:31
simultaneously against the public, with the house, with the
32:34
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get some closing line value,
32:38
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
32:41
So enjoy the sweats, everyone. Have a great Monday night.
32:43
We'll be back at it tomorrow for a big Tuesday, big NHL day.
32:47
I think we have some college football tomorrow.
32:49
Yeah, couple college games, big NHL slate.
32:52
We'll hit on it all in episode 146 of the All Systems Go Sports
32:56
Betting podcast, powered by Rhythm.
32:59
Good luck, everybody. Have a great night.