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Felix Prehn - Banks Just Told Big Clients to SELL… + Stock Market News 07 January 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through the big warning from Wall Street's finest investment bank, trying to scare the bitches out of you this morning.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: I want you to do the following.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand the warning.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I want you to know how you can profit from it.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Yes, and I also want you to know and understand how you can protect your money if the doom sales on Wall Street turn out to be right.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Does that sound like a plan?
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I hope that sounds like a plan.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: I put a little poll out here for you and I asked you what's your current process for reaching your financial goals.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: About 300 of you have voted so far and the majority are saying I want to learn to manage my investments.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: That's a good strategy.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: They're working harder, they're getting a lot of the job and the hope thing they don't really work.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: So I'm glad most of you are on the right path here.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: So quickly here, let me just ask you this, because I want to make sure that you get the most out of the next few minutes here watching this what are your main goals with investing?
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Is it A retire?
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Put an A in there.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: If it is retire, if it's travel, put a B in there.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: If you want to buy or pay off your home, put a C in the chat.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Or if it's like you know, looking after your children or family or something more in that line, you know, put a D in there.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: And if it isn't one of those four, I don't know, I didn't think of it.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: So A says Nayukitu, where are you from?
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Nayukitu?
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: That sounds sort of Japanese-y, doesn't it?
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Auntie Rousey says look after children.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, okay, a lot of A's here, a lot of retires, a lot of retires, a little bit of travel, a little bit of family, a splattering here of family.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, yes, abcd and more.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Okay, I love you for that.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Fox Gaming, you are one of the ABCDs as well, brilliant, okay, a, b and C yeah, you can, of course, multiple choice make money, start a business, have some fun, okay.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: But I think the majority of you here, most of you, are here for the A, for the retire, right, get out of that boring cubicle or whatever it is that they have you strapped to.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: So how's that going for you?
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Do you think that there are opportunities out there that you're maybe missing out on?
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Do you think there's stocks that are exploding today that you're missing out on.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Have there been opportunities this last year that you wish you would have been in?
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: You think you're leaving money on the table If you are put a one in the chat for yes.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: If you just think no, no, I'm God's gift to the investment world.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: I'm you know, jesus the market's part.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: When I approach them, then put a two in there.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: But if you're leaving money on the table here, let's hear it Pascal, he knows everything.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Go talk to Pascal.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: He's the new messiah of investing here.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: But most of you okay, most of you are putting wands in here and you think you're leaving money on the table.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Right, and we all are to an extent.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I leave money on the table, but I also make some pretty serious money on the table, so I'm pretty happy.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: But do I think I can get better?
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Yes, I can.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: How do I get better?
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: I have literally about almost a dozen mentors that I employ, which is brilliant.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: So I'm in a very, very lucky situation because I can literally tap into brilliant brains right, left and center, and that's how I learned.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: That's how everybody learns, right.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: There isn't a single brilliant investor out there who just sat in a dark corner and you know, read something.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: It's not how it happened.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's what they tell you because they want to look like a genius or something, but that's not how it worked.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Everybody who's a brilliant investor had somebody who taught them right.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Every banker, every hedge fund guy, every Bill Ackman, every Warren Buffett they had a mentor, somebody who taught them or multiple mentors right.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: So who's yours?
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm asking you right Now.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: I can get you started.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: I can get you started by giving you a free masterclass where I teach you how to spot those breakouts so that 2025 will be your best year yet, and also teach you a little bit about risk management to make sure you keep your money.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: And we'll go into what's happening today in the market and we'll find some actual, real opportunities here and I'll walk you through those and so on.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: But ultimately, you have to have the skill level and the confidence so that when I ask you, do you think you're leaving money on the table?
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: You're going to be saying no, I'm good.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: And I'm asking you how are you going to get to retirement?
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: You'll say I know exactly how to get there, exactly how long it's going to take me, because I know exactly what I'm doing, with 100% confidence.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: And when the market wobbles, like it did at the end of December, right, you're not running around like, oh my God, should I sell?
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Should I buy, should I sell?
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Let me ask somebody in my phone, a friend.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: You're like I know exactly what I'm doing, I'm calm, I'm smiling, I'm enjoying the dip.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: That's where I want you to get to and that's a real place.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: That's a real place where you get to once you've been through this for a little while.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: But in my humble opinion, you need somebody to guide you, because I just don't think it's possible.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Without I, I would never have gotten to where I got to.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Without guidance, I'd say it's an impossibility.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, there might be somebody out there who could do it, but you've got to basically learn.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: You've got to learn from somebody and it is the most important thing that you can learn in my humble opinion.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you can go to the gym, you can lose weight, you can do all these wonderful things.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: That'll make you feel a little bit better.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: But ultimately, if you want freedom, if you want to decide when you wake up in the morning, then and Lynn, if you're still on the chat here, there's Lynn, I saw you post this at the very beginning of our live chat here.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: That's why I took us to the screenshot of it.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: She said thanks, felix, love the training, taking advantage of your wonderful coaches, and up 38% started in mid-October 2024.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Very happy and, lynn.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Nothing makes me happier than that.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: So keep doing exactly what you're doing, lynn, and keep learning from my mentors, and now your mentors, because that's really what it's all about.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So shall we move on?
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Are you going to watch the masterclass?
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Are you going to watch the masterclass?
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Are you going to do it today?
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: If you're going to watch the masterclass today, put a one in the chat.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Okay, I want to see it.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I want to see that you're actually going to do it.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: And then let's run you through what I promised you the big warning from Wall Street.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: What does it mean?
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Should we be panicking?
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Should we be digging igloos in the backyard moving to Greenland, or backyard moving to Greenland, or should we just understand the warning, learn to profit from it and protect our money at the same time?
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: If you're interested in that, stick around for the next couple of minutes here.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: How's Winston?
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Oh, winston is absolutely glorious.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: I might even be able to find a little photo for you here, because he did a really nice hike today.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Let me see if I can find that at the same time.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: So you're distracting me.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: When you talk about dogs, you see, it's a dangerous thing to do.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Okay, there's a lot of ones here, brilliant, and a lot of you have already watched it.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: I love you for that too.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Absolutely brilliant.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Watched it several times.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Watch you every morning, brian, brilliant, fantastic.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Okay, so let's dive into what Goldman Sachs is putting out here.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: And this is the actual note.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: You don't need to read it.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: It's a bit weird in wording and bankers express themselves very oddly.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: But what they're essentially saying is that they're seeing the biggest sell-off by hedge funds, and I alluded to that yesterday a bit.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Now, why is my mouse on the wrong screen?
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'll use the other mouse.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: So they're saying here there is a thing called fund spreads.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: You don't need to understand what it is, except that the blue line on here is the S&P, the blue line is SPX.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Sorry, I have to write with a mouse.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: My pen has decided to take over the wrong screen.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Can we fix that quickly?
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Hang on, maybe we can fix that quickly.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: No, apparently not.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Okay, never mind, we will soldier on.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: So they're basically saying, look, these two should move in line, as they always have done, and at the moment the red thing is coming down significantly here and therefore we're seeing very, very significant selling here, which means it's this fastest selling of stocks by hedge funds in the last seven months, suggesting a more cautious posture here into the market.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: So what does that therefore mean?
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Well, here is another Goldman trader who also put this out Vincent Lin.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: He said, again, hedge funds sold US equities in each of the past five trading sessions at the fastest pace in more than seven months, and then he puts out a very boring report that I'm not going to bore you with.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: So what does it mean?
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Does it therefore mean we should panic?
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Does it mean we should be selling because they are, or do we have to ask ourselves and think well, what's really happening here?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: What's the reason for this?
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Why does the market sell off?
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: And we'll look at a few of those things.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Why does the market sell off?
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: And we'll look at a few of those things.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Why does the market sell off and what's the likely outcome here?
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: So this is one of the things that's scaring people and again, this is pretty technical.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Most people don't understand this.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: So if you're looking at this going, what's your on about that?
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Means you're a normal, right?
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: I'm a bit weird.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: The green thing here is the US 10-year yield, and it's gone up quite a lot, right?
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: You can sort of see that it's gone up quite a lot, and then in purple, we have the NASDAQ.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Now what typically happens to the Nasdaq?
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: When the 10-year yield goes up, typically it goes down.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: And same thing when the 10-year yield goes down, typically the Nasdaq goes up.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Right now they're both going up, and that's pretty unusual and at least sort of gravity would tell us that the Nasdaq should go down as this 10-year yield continues to go higher, and that's one of the things that's spooking people out.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: It's freaking people out.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: So what does this all mean?
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Well, what this all rests on is fear.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: It's simply that there is some fear out there.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: It's gone up a lot.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: We've had two years of 24% and 25% returns in the market and therefore people think, oh my God, it can't get any better than this.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Well, it can.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Historically, the third year after plus 20% returns.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: We go up all the time, so there's a hundred percent historic likelihood that 2025 is going to be another good year.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: So that doesn't really do it for me, because fear itself doesn't really bother me.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Now the other thing is the Trump administration and there are still some people out there who think that you know he's going to break everything and therefore it'll be the end of the world Economy is going to collapse and you know, tariffs will cause tremendous inflation.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: I had lunch with a good friend of mine who's a very successfully run a very, very large company as chairman and CEO, and he said to me you know, tariffs don't really cause inflation on a meaningful basis.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: And he's, of course, right don't really cause inflation on a meaningful basis.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: And he's, of course, right why?
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Because what do tariffs do?
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Even if he puts tariffs on everything, say, we get those 80% tariffs on everything or something.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: So now everything you buy in a store is I don't know some element more expensive, right?
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: So more expensive stuff, but this is a one-time increase.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: And do you know that inflation is calculated by comparing it to last year?
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: So what happens after?
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: What happens?
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Immediately, you get more inflation, right.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: But what happens a year later?
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: One year later, there aren't any new tariffs, so things aren't going up anymore.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: So inflation is basically back to where it was.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: And then very likely enterprises smart they'll find a cheaper supplier somewhere where there's less tariffs or make it domestically.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: So one year later, inflation is gone, basically whatever inflation you caused.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: So why the heck would the Fed, who do have just about enough brain cells to understand this, and let me know if this makes any sense?
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Does this make any sense?
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: I mean it makes some sense.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: At least put it in the chat, put a smiley or something in the chat.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: The Fed knows this.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: So this is just a temporary inflation blip.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Why would they raise interest rates?
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: That makes no sense.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: They know that higher costs will probably slow the economy anyway, so why would they bother doing that?
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: And if the government spends less money at the same time, that's actually deflationary because the government is the one that causes all the inflation.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Ok, some of you saying smiley, brilliant Pascal, you're the the inflation.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Okay, some of you are saying, smiley, brilliant Pascal, you're the cheeky one today, aren't you?
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: So that isn't really the cause of it.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: And then what else is Trump promising to do?
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: He's promising to lower taxes.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Right, lower taxes, do what?
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: More profits for companies?
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Is that good for stocks?
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Yes or no?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it is yes, rhetorical question.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: And then lower regulations.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Is that good for companies and profits?
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so I don't really see it.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: So, unless there's some weird big event that happens somewhere in the world, you know, the only thing that's going to happen here we're going to get another short squeeze on hedge funds, and we've been through that a few times in the last few years.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: And what does that do?
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Higher market, higher stock prices.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: So the hedge funds are doing the weird thing hedge funds do, which is charge people a lot of money and underperform the market, as most fund managers tend to.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: So I didn't believe in any of this.