Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 10/9/26: Abdul and Ossoff Crush Debates, Pape On Trump's 'Gift To Tehran', Will Lawrence Congress Run In Michigan

Transcript

10/9/26: Abdul and Ossoff Crush Debates, Pape On Trump's 'Gift To Tehran', Will Lawrence Congress Run In Michigan · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: It is Friday, October 9th here at your Breaking Points
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: Friday shows. We've got Crystal returning, Ryan returning, and me
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: and Emily, you know, no days off. We're grind set
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: hustling always. We're always here. Ryan, how was your show?
• 0:17
  Speaker 3: It was delightful. And then kudos to Richmond. Their amphitheater
• 0:21
  Speaker 3: is awesome. Like it looks out over the downtown. One
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: of the buildings even. And I think this was real,
• 0:28
  Speaker 3: had all of this psychedelic stuff going on the building
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: to go along with the show.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: We're not sure if it was real.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: We know there were other breakers there because we sent
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: a lot of photos. If anyone else can confirm if
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: those were real or not in the comments.
• 0:44
  Speaker 4: So Ryan, was the show even more enjoyable knowing that
• 0:47
  Speaker 4: it was built on top of Sagar's shame?
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: Absolutely.
• 0:51
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Sagar was there in spirit in his shame.
• 0:56
  Speaker 6: Although it's almost now empowering because Sager is profiting off
• 1:01
  Speaker 6: of his shame. It's almost, well, I'm not going to
• 1:05
  Speaker 6: say what I was going to say.
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he's loving it. I met people there who said
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: they helped me get there, so it was great.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: All right. Well, now that we've.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: Gotten through our incredible opening, we've got a big show today.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: We have Professor Pate returning champion. He emailed me yesterday
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: demanding to get back on the show because he has
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: some very important slides about the new 2000 troops deployed
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: to the Middle East with Donald Trump saying that he
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: may or may not strike Iran before the midterms. Professor
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: is going to break all that down. We also have
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: Will Lawrence returning to the show as well. We're going
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: to be checking in to see the state of his campaign,
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: talking a little bit about AI. But first, let's get
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: to the main attraction this morning, which is, of course,
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: three different debates that occurred last evening. We have Abdul, Asaf,
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: and Troy Jackson. So why don't we start with reacting
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: to a little bit of Abdul and Mike Rogers here.
• 2:05
  Speaker 5: Let's take a listen. What he's talking about. A few
• 2:09
  Speaker 5: weeks ago, he said, I will go back and fight
• 2:11
  Speaker 5: every one of the tariffs that have been put in place.
• 2:14
  Speaker 5: Detroit Diesel added a third shift because of those tariffs.
• 2:17
  Speaker 5: We have the Chevy Silverado came back to Michigan. Huge
• 2:22
  Speaker 5: billion dollar investment because of those tariffs.
• 2:25
  Speaker 7: We saved.
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: Traverse City cherries because of those tariffs. He wants to
• 2:30
  Speaker 5: undo it because he can't see past his own political rhetoric.
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: We didn't change. What we said is things move. We're
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: trying to get it wrapped up. We want a deal
• 2:41
  Speaker 5: on those tariff deals. Dr.
• 2:43
  Speaker 7: El-Sayed, 30 seconds. We have to move on.
• 2:45
  Speaker 8: Weak, cowardly, won't stand up until his poll numbers drop.
• 2:49
  Speaker 8: This is what you can expect from a guy who's bought.
• 2:52
  Speaker 9: Off $ 5.
• 2:52
  Speaker 8: Million from corporations to run his previous campaigns. Voted to
• 2:55
  Speaker 8: raise your prescription drug prices or keep them high 19 times.
• 2:59
  Speaker 8: He has the audacity to do an ad looking at
• 3:02
  Speaker 8: the drug prices in Canada, except for he voted four
• 3:04
  Speaker 8: times to keep you from buying the prescription drugs in Canada.
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: It's incoherent.
• 3:09
  Speaker 8: The only thing he cares about is his power and
• 3:11
  Speaker 8: going back one more time through the revolving door to make, what,
• 3:13
  Speaker 8: $ 14 million you made?
• 3:15
  Speaker 7: Listen, I can't let that stand. Let me just tell
• 3:18
  Speaker 7: you this.
• 3:20
  Speaker 5: I won't let this stand from a guy who is
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: taking corporate PAC money. He snuck in the back door
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: to Chuck Schumer. That money is raining down on him. Oh,
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: by the way, corporate executive, Pfizer Pharmaceutical.
• 3:32
  Speaker 7: Gentlemen, gentlemen, we have to keep this order.
• 3:36
  Speaker 10: 15 seconds and we're moving on to health care.
• 3:39
  Speaker 8: Two yachts made $ 14 million. You guys know what Telefonica is?
• 3:42
  Speaker 8: It's a corporation he advised that was helping Maduro spy
• 3:46
  Speaker 8: on his own people. How much money do you make
• 3:47
  Speaker 8: off of it?
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Can you tell us how much money you made?
• 3:50
  Speaker 8: Can you tell me, is this like the deal that
• 3:52
  Speaker 8: you got with Wayne County where you took taxpayers money
• 3:55
  Speaker 8: to run for the United States Senate?
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: Oh, and by the way, the woman who replaced him
• 4:00
  Speaker 5: got paid one hundred thousand dollars less.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: We're going to move to health care. All right.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: So that is the general tenor of the entire hour
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: long debate. What do we make of this? Who else
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: is watching?
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: Well, one thing I made about not just this debate,
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: but all the debates from last night and some of
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: the other ones that have already occurred is just how
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: much the tariffs come up. And obviously, the Iran war
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: has been a very obvious problem for Trump and for
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: the Republicans and gas prices and all of that. But
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: I do think we've underrated, especially in states, you know,
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: border state like Michigan, in states like Kansas, Iowa, how
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: much the tariffs really have weighed on Republican candidates as well.
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: Before the Iran war, we were talking all about how
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: this was something that American people just absolutely hated. And
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: Mike Rogers really hasn't had a coherent position. He's been
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: critical of them at times. He's been supportive at times.
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: There's been audio that's leaked of him being more, you know,
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: more supportive, even though it has been, you know, pretty
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: bad in general for, you know, for consumers, certainly, and
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: for the auto industry, especially, which is why Abdul has
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: brought it up quite a bit. So that was one
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: thing I noted across all three. That was pretty interesting.
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: I also, in the spirit of, you know, Sagar being
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: with us in spirit, have to point out the Mike
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: Rogers sneakers on the debate stage, which I know Sagar
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: would be deeply disturbed by.
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: I miss that. And just for the background on the
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: 14 million dollars that he made, he became chairman of
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: the House Intelligence Committee. when Republicans took over in the
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: Tea Party wave in 2010, and he served through basically
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: 2014 into 2015, he was under a lot of pressure
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: to depart because he kind of botched the Benghazi hearings.
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: And Republicans were actually attacking him for the way that
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: he handled it because his wife is the head of
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: a major security contractor that was doing work in Libya,
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: and they were accusing him of botching hearings.
• 5:54
  Speaker 6: But as one is, a normal Michigan mom.
• 5:56
  Speaker 7: Exactly.
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: Just a Michigan mom who ran a a security contractor
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: company in Libya and also Afghanistan. So he steps down
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: at that point and goes into the private sector. So
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: he had spent all this time as the powerful chair
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: of the House Intel Committee, regulating surveillance and all of
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: these other things. And then he goes and just works
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: for a whole bunch of cybersecurity companies, making $ 14 million,
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: working for the very companies that he was supposed to
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: be regulating. So that's what Al-Sayed's referring to there. And
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: apparently he got a couple of yachts, but not in Florida.
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: Like maybe it's flagged in Louisiana or something. I didn't
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: quite understand what its comeback was there.
• 6:34
  Speaker 6: Well, I also just.
• 6:35
  Speaker 11: My yachts aren't even flagged in Florida.
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: Oh, Griffin, actually, speaking of flagged in America, they're Bahamas.
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: What are you talking about?
• 6:41
  Speaker 6: Speaking of bad comebacks, Griffin, can we pull up the
• 6:44
  Speaker 6: clip about the house in the UAE that I sent
• 6:47
  Speaker 6: last night? OK, but before I say I also just
• 6:49
  Speaker 6: want to make a point about the tariffs. I think
• 6:50
  Speaker 6: it might be similar because what we saw during Trump's
• 6:52
  Speaker 6: first term tariffs were a little bit less. than they
• 6:55
  Speaker 6: are now in most cases. And what we saw over
• 6:58
  Speaker 6: and over again was farmers saying, we know that there
• 7:00
  Speaker 6: needs to be a dramatic restructuring of this relationship and
• 7:02
  Speaker 6: we're going to be patient with it. And I think
• 7:04
  Speaker 6: what's interesting now is one of the reasons that might
• 7:07
  Speaker 6: explain what Crystal, I think, just rightly observed is that
• 7:09
  Speaker 6: it's sort of like the corruption. When the economy is
• 7:11
  Speaker 6: really bad, it's 200 times harder for Republicans to get
• 7:15
  Speaker 6: away with tariffs and Trump corruption and to run in
• 7:18
  Speaker 6: an environment where tariffs and corruption are high because you
• 7:21
  Speaker 6: have $ 4 a gallon gas. And that makes it all
• 7:25
  Speaker 6: way more difficult for people to swallow. And it looks
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: like Republicans in the Trump era, who always pitched themselves
• 7:30
  Speaker 6: as being the working class champions bottom up, makes it
• 7:33
  Speaker 6: look like they're top down, making life harder for people. Anyway,
• 7:37
  Speaker 6: speaking of bad comebacks, I think we should roll this one.
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: He can't condemn Hamas. He can't condemn the Muslim Brotherhood.
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: He says his home is Egypt. This is all starting
• 7:45
  Speaker 5: to make sense.
• 7:46
  Speaker 7: We are going to move along.
• 7:47
  Speaker 12: We can continue this conversation in the second half of
• 7:51
  Speaker 12: the show.
• 7:51
  Speaker 8: He does want a home in Florida.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: He took it off the market.
• 7:53
  Speaker 7: I don't know why.
• 7:53
  Speaker 9: He just took it off his home in the United
• 7:55
  Speaker 9: Arab Emirates.
• 7:56
  Speaker 7: We're done. Staying in the Middle East. Congressman Rogers, you pledged.
• 8:00
  Speaker 6: He gets a great line delivered to him because Abdul
• 8:03
  Speaker 6: sets him up. He sets himself up when talking about
• 8:06
  Speaker 6: the other home because it's true. His financials, the closures
• 8:08
  Speaker 6: did show the UAE property. And then Mike Rogers snatching
• 8:12
  Speaker 6: defeat from the jaws of victory, saying at least Florida's
• 8:15
  Speaker 6: in the United States.
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: That should be the campaign slogan.
• 8:21
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: Mike Rogers.
• 8:23
  Speaker 11: At least Florida's in the United States.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: At least Florida's in the United States.
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: For now, for now. So we also had a little
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: confrontation or two. I want to play back to back
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: about the war. Let's take a listen.
• 8:35
  Speaker 8: He said he thinks the war is going to end.
• 8:38
  Speaker 8: He's got a direct line to the president who's making
• 8:40
  Speaker 8: sure the war.
• 8:40
  Speaker 10: Does not end.
• 8:41
  Speaker 8: And he's not using it because he's true led this
• 8:43
  Speaker 8: war the entire time.
• 8:44
  Speaker 7: And this is not a when it ends. We need
• 8:46
  Speaker 7: to end it.
• 8:46
  Speaker 8: That's what you're electing a U.S. senator to do, to
• 8:48
  Speaker 8: stand up to Donald Trump and end the stupid war.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: So we've got that one, and then we've also got
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: another attack on Abdul El-Sayed here about groceries and gas.
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: He's talking about what he's trying to tell you, where
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: he wants you to be.
• 9:02
  Speaker 7: That's a con man.
• 9:03
  Speaker 10: Congressman, we've got to stay on time.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I just want to respond to this.
• 9:07
  Speaker 8: You can respond to me. Remember what I said. He
• 9:09
  Speaker 8: wanted to make this about him or me. But the
• 9:12
  Speaker 8: question is about you. Can you afford your gas? Can
• 9:14
  Speaker 8: you afford your groceries? Under this guy who's going to
• 9:17
  Speaker 8: rubber stamp everything Donald Trump tells him to rubber stamp,
• 9:19
  Speaker 8: you're going to continue to pay way more out the
• 9:21
  Speaker 8: nose because he works for corporations and Donald Trump.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Quite a performance from Mr. Abdul here.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: Is there a Mike Rogers contingent that is really happy
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: about the war continuing and wants it to continue on? Emily,
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: do you have any sense of in Michigan, if there
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: is a loud minority that's still happy that we're keeping
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: the nukes from the Ayatollah?
• 9:42
  Speaker 6: When even Mike Rogers is flip-flopping on the Iran war,
• 9:46
  Speaker 6: you know that the Iran war is deeply unpopular. By
• 9:48
  Speaker 6: the way, Michelle Tafoya, who's running a shockingly close race
• 9:51
  Speaker 6: with Peggy Flanagan, I'm genuinely surprised by how close those
• 9:54
  Speaker 6: numbers are. Probably still not going to win, but very close.
• 9:57
  Speaker 6: She came out against the Iran war this week after
• 9:59
  Speaker 6: previously being an art defender of it. So interesting, interesting
• 10:02
  Speaker 6: signs happening there.
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: Yeah. New poll came out in that race that, you know,
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: who knows? It's one of many, but that had Flanagan
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: opening up a wider lead in Minnesota, which just given,
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: you know, the state, I wouldn't be surprised if it
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: ends up being a pretty comfortable victory for her, but
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: we'll see. I think in those clips you saw some
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: of the dynamics of what the case Abdul was really
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: trying to prosecute throughout the entire night where Mike Rogers
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: was trying to. I mean, there's a ton of dog
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: whistling here. And, oh, he's from Egypt. He's not even
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: from here. He's not really Michigan. You know, he's foreign.
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: He loves the Muslim Brotherhood. He can't condemn terrorism, all
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: this kind of nonsense, which fits with. Trump calling him
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: Muhammad for some reason, saying that he loves jihad and
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: just total Islamophobic bullshit is a lot of what is
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: coming from the Republicans against Abdul. And then trying to
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: also just sort of muddy the waters. Abdul has this
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: very strong anti-corruption, anti-corporate PAC money stance. And so trying
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: to sort of muddy things and confuse voters about whether
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: or not Abdul really stands on principle on those things.
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: So Abdul, on the other hand, consistently said, hey, this
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: isn't about me. He wants to talk about me. He
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: wants to talk about my mom. He wants to talk about,
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: you know, where where I've lived in my life and
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: my medical degree.
• 11:18
  Speaker 11: It's not about me.
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: It's about you. It's about your gas prices, about can
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: you get health care? And I think it's a very
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: effective frame. And on the other hand, Mike Rogers and
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: the other piece of Abdul's argument was tying Mike Rogers
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: to Trump constantly. constantly tying him to Trump. And Ossoff
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: did a similar thing, frankly, down in Georgia as well.
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: But I think that just shows you how incredibly unpopular
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: Trump is at this moment, that that is a central
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: strategy of saying Mike Rogers is just going to go
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: along with Trump. The only time he breaks from is
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: when it's convenient for him. He sees the poll numbers
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: are dropping and he's desperate. But he's going to be
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: a rubber stamp for Trump. And, you know, I think
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: that's going to it's just a very difficult thing for
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: anyone to run against having myself run during the Tea
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: Party wave when there was a whole rush to try
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: for Democrats to try to distance themselves from Obama.
• 12:09
  Speaker 6: Nancy Pelosi crystal over there.
• 12:11
  Speaker 11: That's right.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: And I think Emily's right that tariffs policy kind of
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: runs on trust. And so Mike Rogers claim there that, look,
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: you know, the tariffs were actually good for some elements
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: of the economy. is accurate as far as it goes.
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: And that would work to a public that has faith
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: that they're being done in good faith and that there's
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: going to be some kind of reasonable path forward. But
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: I don't think anybody thinks that. I think they just
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: think that Trump is just kind of a tariff lunatic,
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: that it's not even obvious he has the best interest
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: of the country or the state in mind. And if
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: some people benefit from it, that's great. probably just Trump
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: getting lucky. So I think it just puts Mike Rogers
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: on the side of Trump, even when he's defending the
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: couple of scenarios where the tariffs actually were beneficial. In general,
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: in Michigan, people are fine with tariffs to the extent
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: that they protect the auto industry, but not as it
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: relates to a massive trade war with the country just
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: to the north.
• 13:16
  Speaker 6: Well, not if it's being done in a way that's
• 13:18
  Speaker 6: costing rather than adding, meaning people are betting on other
• 13:21
  Speaker 6: countries and other supply chains.
• 13:23
  Speaker 7: Right.
• 13:24
  Speaker 9: Yeah.
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: I get that cheap road salt.
• 13:27
  Speaker 7: Yes, yes.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: And so John Ossoff was mentioned.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: So I'd like us to turn over to Georgia for
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: a second here for a completely separate thrashing of Mike Collins.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: Let's take a listen to the clip that got shared
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: around the most, which is the Billy Club clip.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: This question is for both of you.
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: Georgia has been at the center of fights over voting
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: rules and election administration.
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: What voting rules should be.
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: Left to Georgia to decide, and when ever should the
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: federal government step in?
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: Editor, 60 seconds.
• 13:59
  Speaker 13: Well, look, Georgia has voter ID, and that's good. Mike
• 14:04
  Speaker 13: Collins and Donald Trump, they're still obsessed with overturning the
• 14:08
  Speaker 13: 2020 elections. Mike Collins still believes the 2020 election was stolen.
• 14:13
  Speaker 13: Mike Collins has supported Donald Trump's effort to overturn the election,
• 14:17
  Speaker 13: and he wants to give your tax dollars to the
• 14:19
  Speaker 13: violent thugs and criminals who sacked the US Capitol on
• 14:24
  Speaker 13: January 6th. Mike Collins is attacking your voting rights, but
• 14:28
  Speaker 13: that's not a surprise when you consider who Mike Collins is.
• 14:31
  Speaker 13: This is a man who cheered on a group of
• 14:34
  Speaker 13: young men who were mocking a black woman on a
• 14:37
  Speaker 13: college campus with monkey sounds. If John Lewis were marching
• 14:41
  Speaker 13: today from Selma to Montgomery, Mike Collins would be grabbing
• 14:46
  Speaker 13: a billy club. His office has been in cahoots with
• 14:49
  Speaker 13: some of the most notorious white supremacists on the country.
• 14:53
  Speaker 13: He himself has amplified neo-Nazi propaganda. He's never apologized for it,
• 14:59
  Speaker 13: and he should tonight.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: And that's Mike Collins on the right here, furiously writing notes. Like,
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: what's he writing there? Billy clubs. Billy Club, Billy Club. So, yeah,
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, from watching the whole Ossoff debate, very impressive,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: very surgical in how he would break down his arguments.
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: What did you guys make?
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: Emily, I'm curious for your take on this, because I
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: know you often take umbrage at unnecessary charges of kind
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: of racism or extremism leveled by Democrats. But Mike Collins
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: is he is quite out there. So I wonder if
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: you're like, you know what?
• 15:38
  Speaker 7: This guy.
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: He kind of earns it.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: I didn't even know about his son.
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: There's a lot for Ossoff to work with with this guy.
• 15:45
  Speaker 6: The son-in-law is inexcusable. There's no way that you can...
• 15:49
  Speaker 6: And yeah, I mean, that's true. I really don't like
• 15:52
  Speaker 6: it when we categorically say this person is X, Y,
• 15:55
  Speaker 6: or Z. But in Mike Collins' case, I think he
• 15:58
  Speaker 6: is given Ossoff, as Crystal said. Why would you... His
• 16:02
  Speaker 6: son-in-law lives with him. And there's an earlier clip, I
• 16:04
  Speaker 6: don't know if we want to play it or not,
• 16:05
  Speaker 6: where Ossoff says, There's white supremacist propaganda coming from your
• 16:09
  Speaker 6: home because his son-in-law lives with him. And Collins tries
• 16:13
  Speaker 6: to flip it on Ossoff and say, that's my family
• 16:16
  Speaker 6: you're talking about. And everyone's like, he's a white supremacist.
• 16:22
  Speaker 6: And this is partially why I think it's important to
• 16:24
  Speaker 6: be careful with terms, because this dude is a literal
• 16:26
  Speaker 6: white supremacist. Like what he says is like. American history X.
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: Like, it is disgusting. He's like, I'm a white supremacist.
• 16:32
  Speaker 10: Yes.
• 16:33
  Speaker 6: And so Mike Collins has zero answer to that. And Ossoff,
• 16:37
  Speaker 6: who is an enormous political talent, is just absolutely cooking
• 16:40
  Speaker 6: him with it.
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: It's also a sign of what a different Georgia this
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: is from your grandfather's Georgia that, you know, Ossoff really
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: leaned into those attacks on Collins throughout the entire, throughout
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: the night. And he did not hold back. You use
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: the lines that you were indicating, Emily, saying this is
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: coming out of your own household. He said your staff
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: is like in the KKK or something like that.
• 17:06
  Speaker 11: I mean, he really went in.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: He said you hired half the Third Reich.
• 17:10
  Speaker 11: Well, that's the thing. Half the Third Reich to staff
• 17:12
  Speaker 11: your campaign.
• 17:13
  Speaker 7: And....
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: You know, I mean, first of all, I think, look,
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: Ossoff looks like he's in really good shape for this,
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: which at the beginning of the election season, right after
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: Trump was elected, I thought he may really be in
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: trouble for his reelect.
• 17:26
  Speaker 11: And here he is cruising to victory.
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: Republicans have basically pulled out of Georgia and North Carolina
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: is like this is not going to happen for us.
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: So that is, you know, really pretty incredible and testament
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: to his political strength. But you've got a few things here.
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: You've got a large, educated, white, suburban population, and you
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: have a large Black population in the state as well.
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: And that is the rising coalition that has really moved
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: Georgia into the Democratic column. So I think these attacks
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: land pretty hard when you talk about all of that.
• 17:57
  Speaker 6: Well, that is another thing. Like he has had issues
• 17:59
  Speaker 6: with his staffer. So it's not just the son-in-law. And
• 18:01
  Speaker 6: when you put those two things together, like, again, his
• 18:03
  Speaker 6: son-in-law is not just somebody who disagrees with people on
• 18:06
  Speaker 6: George Floyd. His son-in-law is like an actual racist. And
• 18:09
  Speaker 6: when you combine those two things, it's very difficult for
• 18:12
  Speaker 6: Mike Collins to flip it around and be like, that's
• 18:14
  Speaker 6: my family. How dare you? At one point, he's like,
• 18:16
  Speaker 6: I've told my son-in-law that I think racism is disgusting.
• 18:19
  Speaker 11: It's like, oh, sure you have.
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: Griffin, do you have the Third Reich one? I have
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: it if you don't have it handy.
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: I don't know if we have time because we did
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: need to hit a few other things, but is there
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: anything you wanted to– we can play it.
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: Just one minute. Let me– there we go. It is
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: pretty good. It also shows– you described Asaf as surgical,
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: and I think that's quite precise.
• 18:41
  Speaker 7: All right. I got it right here.
• 18:42
  Speaker 13: First of all, no Georgia family or small business should
• 18:45
  Speaker 13: pay a dime more to subsidize the energy consumption of
• 18:48
  Speaker 13: these data centers. No local community should have these data
• 18:51
  Speaker 13: centers imposed on them. But that same budget bill we've
• 18:56
  Speaker 13: been discussing all night, the one that slashed Medicaid, the
• 18:59
  Speaker 13: one that doubled your health insurance premiums, it also gave
• 19:02
  Speaker 13: $ 70 billion of your money to data center developers. Just
• 19:09
  Speaker 13: think about this, when you are paying more for your
• 19:12
  Speaker 13: health insurance, when a hospital in your community is closing down,
• 19:18
  Speaker 13: Mike Collins voted to take that money out of your
• 19:20
  Speaker 13: pocket and out of your community. and give it instead
• 19:24
  Speaker 13: to data center developers. And that's the problem, Mike. It's
• 19:26
  Speaker 13: not just that you've hired half the Third Reich to
• 19:29
  Speaker 13: staff your congressional office and you have promoted neo-Nazi content online.
• 19:33
  Speaker 13: It's that you're robbing your constituents to subsidize your donors.
• 19:37
  Speaker 13: I want to know if you will commit to voting
• 19:38
  Speaker 13: to repeal that data center tax scam that you voted for.
• 19:42
  Speaker 7: Brutal.
• 19:43
  Speaker 11: Devastating. I mean, how do you respond to that?
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: Like, it's not just that you hired half the Third
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: Reich and you're a freaking bigot and a white supremacist.
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: It's also that you are taking money from people's health
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: care and sending it to these tech oligarchs to build
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: these data centers that everybody hates.
• 20:02
  Speaker 11: I mean, what more?
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: Like, that was masterful. Honestly, putting all that together was
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: quite impressive.
• 20:08
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: He did that exact form on David Perdue where he
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: was like in this famous line where he's like, it's
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: not just that you're a crook. It's also, you know,
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: that you're making life worse for people in Georgia or
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: whatever it was. But so he throws like eight different
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: things at him. So exactly. How do you respond to that?
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: It's like, well, hold on. I want to I want
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: to pick up on the third right point that he made.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: And then then you don't do the data center part.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: You don't do the tax part.
• 20:32
  Speaker 11: It's like, well, and that was the other thing.
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: In addition to tariffs and obviously the Iran war, data
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: centers have come up quite a bit in all of
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: these debates, too. And, you know, Republicans often on the
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: on the defensive with regard to them, because obviously they've
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: become so deeply unpopular. Griffin, probably the last one we
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: should play here that we should get in is one
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: where he's asked about about genocide. Ossoff is asked whether
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. And he really hedges
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: and sort of dodges the question. Let's go and take
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: a look at that one.
• 21:04
  Speaker 12: Since the October 7th terror attack in Israel, Israel's response
• 21:08
  Speaker 12: has led to a major divide in your party, with
• 21:11
  Speaker 12: many prominent Democrats accusing Israel of committing genocide. You yourself
• 21:15
  Speaker 12: voted to block a shipment of arms to Israel, seen
• 21:18
  Speaker 12: by many in Atlanta's Jewish community.
• 21:20
  Speaker 7: As a betrayal.
• 21:21
  Speaker 12: Do you believe Israel is guilty of committing genocide? Are
• 21:25
  Speaker 12: you alarmed by the growing anti-Israel sentiment within your party?
• 21:29
  Speaker 12: And will you vote yes or no on the administration's
• 21:31
  Speaker 12: latest $ 2. 8 billion weapons package for Israel? And you have
• 21:36
  Speaker 12: 60 seconds.
• 21:37
  Speaker 7: Thank you, Rick.
• 21:38
  Speaker 13: The question of genocide is a question of whether a
• 21:42
  Speaker 13: government has the specific intent to destroy a national or
• 21:47
  Speaker 13: ethnic group. And that is a question for the International
• 21:50
  Speaker 13: Criminal Court. There is no doubt in my mind that
• 21:54
  Speaker 13: Israeli forces prosecuting the war in Gaza violated the law
• 21:58
  Speaker 13: of armed conflict and international humanitarian law. And I care
• 22:03
  Speaker 13: deeply about the security of the Israeli people among whom
• 22:06
  Speaker 13: are members of my family. I also care about innocent
• 22:10
  Speaker 13: Palestinian life and.
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: Make no apology for my votes.
• 22:15
  Speaker 13: But Congressman Mike Collins wants to sanction and defund the
• 22:19
  Speaker 13: International Criminal Court. His view is that there should not
• 22:22
  Speaker 13: be accountability for crimes against humanity, no matter who commits them.
• 22:27
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: Yeah. I mean, just so lame. Like, I don't know
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: when these politicians are going to figure out. You can't
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: find some centrist split the baby position on genocide. And
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: so he's trying to be too cute here. I don't
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: know what he really thinks and who he's trying to
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: please here, whether this is genuinely his view. But it's
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: preposterous to imagine that the term genocide is useful if
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: you're waiting for some ICC process to play out that
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: may take years or may not happen at all. The
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: whole idea of international law is to try to prevent
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: the atrocities. So if it's deemed a genocide 30 years
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: down the road, that doesn't help anyone in the near term.
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: And obviously, you have basically every international human rights body,
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: including some in Israel, who have looked at this, who say, yes,
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: it's a genocide. So I think this smacks of a cowardly,
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: overly calculated political statement here that was clearly very practiced
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: right out of the briefing book.
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and the calculation becomes apparent towards the end of it,
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: where he's saying, like, look, Mike Collins doesn't even believe
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: in the ICC. So at least, like, I'm saying that
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: they should be prosecuted there and see where that goes.
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: I also think, and this is minority opinion, probably. If
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: you're going to have a transformation of U.S. policy towards Israel,
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: somebody like Asaf, who has tried so hard to build
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: credibility with kind of the pro-Israel world and isn't successful
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: at it, could be probably one of the strongest candidates
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: to do that. If you look at the responses to
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: him from the pro-Israel crowd to that answer, they're like
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: done with him. They're like, how dare you?
• 24:06
  Speaker 11: How dare you.
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: Even bring up the ICC when it comes to Israel?
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: It's confusing to me.
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: It's like, you haven't learned at this point that unless
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: you are lockstep with them, then you're dead to them. Like,
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: there's no pleasing them outside of completely 100% towing the line.
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: The minute that you, you know, blocked that shipment or
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: whatever he voted against, it was over.
• 24:28
  Speaker 11: It was done.
• 24:28
  Speaker 14: So.
• 24:30
  Speaker 11: What are you doing?
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: I mean, either his genuine view is that he is
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: a Zionist and he's pro-Israel. And so he doesn't want
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: to say genocide, even though this is clearly where the
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: base and where the majority of the American people are
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: at this point. Or he's, you know, stuck in sort
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: of politics of the past, trying to please a group
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: that's already abandoned him.
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: And I think it's probably he's just coasting. He's up
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: 10 or whatever.
• 24:53
  Speaker 9: Yeah.
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: And he's like, I haven't yet called it a genocide.
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to make a news cycle out of
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: calling it a genocide.
• 24:58
  Speaker 7: Sure.
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: I'm just going to coast to November 3rd, win by
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: my 10 points, and then deal with the problems that
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: Crystal's identifying on November 4th. Because all expectation is that
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: he's going to run for president. And I think you're right.
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: I don't think you can do a primary getting asked
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: at every single event this question. He's going to have
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: to band-aid off. But I think he's thinking, I'm ripping
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: it off on November 4th or whatever, or, you know.
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: January of next year.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: Look forward to my take in a couple of months.
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: Look forward to my take. I'm just coasting into this
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: Mike Collins defeat.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: He's way too talented to be serving up like Pete
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: Buttigieg 2.0. Like he could be so much more than that,
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: but it feels like he's still kind of in that
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: safety lane.
• 25:45
  Speaker 9: Yeah.
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: And what you're laying out, Ryan, is basically once it's
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: safe for him and it imposes no political costs and
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: only has political upside, undeniable political upside, that's when he'll
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: actually admit that this is a genocide and agree with
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: the global international consensus. And I don't think that that's
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: going to cut it for people because I think it's
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: very transparent.
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: So you easily could have said the same thing, that
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: the definition of genocide is the specific intent to destroy
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: a nationality in whole or in part. And clearly, based
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: on their own statements, that is what is happening in Gaza. Like, just, just,
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: you don't even forget about what has happened, which is obvious.
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: But just based on their statements, he could say, that
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: is my assessment. And anybody who thinks that that's not
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: the case hasn't listened to Israeli officials as they've spoken
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: publicly about it. But, you know, I think he just
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: wants to win by 10.
• 26:41
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: Well, we don't have enough time to get to the
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Troy Jackson debate because we've got.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: Maybe we can do it after Will.
• 26:47
  Speaker 7: Okay.
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe we can lop it on there if you
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: have any clips, Ryan. But right now, we've got to
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: get over... Professor, welcome back to the show. How are
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: you this Friday morning?
• 27:02
  Speaker 7: Oh, I'm great. And thanks for letting me listen in. Crystal,
• 27:08
  Speaker 7: your point is why we've never stopped a genocide since 1944.
• 27:13
  Speaker 7: So I published multiple articles on this in International Security.
• 27:17
  Speaker 7: So this is an area I don't want to talk
• 27:19
  Speaker 7: about it today, but I just want to let you
• 27:21
  Speaker 7: know your point that by the time you define it
• 27:24
  Speaker 7: as a genocide, it's too late. Every genocide that has
• 27:28
  Speaker 7: occurred since the Accords were created has never been stopped
• 27:32
  Speaker 7: for this reason. And the biggest case is Rwanda by
• 27:36
  Speaker 7: the Clinton administration, which comes in saying they're going to
• 27:38
  Speaker 7: stop all the genocides. And then what happened is they
• 27:42
  Speaker 7: debated it for months and months. And Madeleine Albright, none
• 27:46
  Speaker 7: of them could do it. And your point is exactly
• 27:50
  Speaker 7: the catch-22. And so the problem is the International Communities
• 27:54
  Speaker 7: Accords are not worth the paper they're written on. The
• 27:58
  Speaker 7: Genocide Accords are worthless. And nobody wants to say that.
• 28:02
  Speaker 7: But the problem is it's been almost 100 years. And
• 28:05
  Speaker 7: your point is always the reason we have never stopped
• 28:08
  Speaker 7: the genocide. All right. I'm not coming at it from
• 28:11
  Speaker 7: the right. I'm not defending genocide.
• 28:14
  Speaker 11: No, no, no.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: We get you. We get you. That's a very inspiring start, Professor.
• 28:19
  Speaker 7: My job is to doom and gloom you and then
• 28:23
  Speaker 7: you say, no, it's not so bad.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: It's real talk.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: So let's move on to some real talk about the
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: new deployment that you reached out to want to talk about.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: And you sent me some wonderful slides. You call this
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: Washington's gift to Tehran. So if you could explain a
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: little more of that and I can pull up slides
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: whenever you'd like.
• 28:42
  Speaker 7: That's right. So I think it's very important to understand
• 28:45
  Speaker 7: we are in the most dangerous part of the escalation
• 28:49
  Speaker 7: trap that I've been talking about for many months. And
• 28:53
  Speaker 7: it's because the key issue for the trap is President
• 28:58
  Speaker 7: Trump losing political power and becoming Jimmy Carter. And that
• 29:06
  Speaker 7: is what is on offer in the midterm elections. That's
• 29:10
  Speaker 7: what is coming. And that is why I believe, and
• 29:13
  Speaker 7: I've been very concerned about this, and I realize that
• 29:16
  Speaker 7: a lot of people have been on the other side,
• 29:19
  Speaker 7: that as we get to the midterms, President Trump will
• 29:23
  Speaker 7: have tremendous incentives to escalate either just before the midterms
• 29:28
  Speaker 7: or after during the counting of the vote. And what
• 29:32
  Speaker 7: you're seeing just in the last week is strong evidence
• 29:37
  Speaker 7: of those preparations. So on September 27th here, which is
• 29:41
  Speaker 7: actually a little more than a week ago, that's when
• 29:43
  Speaker 7: you see the movement of the Roosevelt. But we also now,
• 29:47
  Speaker 7: just in the last couple of days, know that President
• 29:49
  Speaker 7: Trump has given orders for the Pentagon to generate options Now,
• 29:55
  Speaker 7: he's not saying he's made a decision to do it,
• 29:57
  Speaker 7: that presidents never will do that in advance. So what
• 30:01
  Speaker 7: you are seeing is quite serious preparations for major escalation.
• 30:07
  Speaker 7: And it's important then now to talk about the consequences.
• 30:12
  Speaker 7: And so what I'd like to do is walk you
• 30:14
  Speaker 7: through this short few slides to explain the window a
• 30:18
  Speaker 7: little more clearly, why we're in this key window. Second
• 30:23
  Speaker 7: is I want to pick just a couple scenarios to
• 30:25
  Speaker 7: show how truly disastrous they would be. And I realize
• 30:30
  Speaker 7: that with what, you know, 75 percent of the public
• 30:33
  Speaker 7: or 70 percent of the public against the war, you
• 30:35
  Speaker 7: might say, well, why go through this? It's because we
• 30:40
  Speaker 7: really are in a position where we need to make
• 30:42
  Speaker 7: sure these consequences are front and center. as President Trump
• 30:47
  Speaker 7: is looking at these plans in the Oval Office. So
• 30:50
  Speaker 7: this is not to persuade the 70%. This is really
• 30:54
  Speaker 7: to try to get ahead of potential really negative consequences.
• 30:59
  Speaker 7: So I call it the gift because I'm trying to
• 31:01
  Speaker 7: explain that we have options to escalate. We have options
• 31:07
  Speaker 7: to escalate, but we have no options to escalate advantageously.
• 31:11
  Speaker 7: And that is what's crucial to know. And therefore, what
• 31:15
  Speaker 7: we're doing with these escalations, if we did them, are
• 31:19
  Speaker 7: true gifts to Tehran. They will help Tehran. So I
• 31:23
  Speaker 7: just want to point out, I've just explained the crucial
• 31:27
  Speaker 7: date of November 3rd, but I want to point out
• 31:30
  Speaker 7: the three clocks as they are pushing to this date
• 31:34
  Speaker 7: and how they work. So first, as we all know,
• 31:37
  Speaker 7: the Theodore Roosevelt and another 2,000 Marines that are able
• 31:43
  Speaker 7: to land are moving. And they started on September 27th.
• 31:49
  Speaker 7: It will take about five weeks before they're fully in position.
• 31:53
  Speaker 7: And that is, and I'm showing you on the clock
• 31:56
  Speaker 7: where we are roughly today. But it's important to know
• 32:00
  Speaker 7: that the Roosevelt will be within firing range before the
• 32:03
  Speaker 7: five weeks are up. So as we get closer here,
• 32:06
  Speaker 7: this really is a very important clock for capability. The
• 32:11
  Speaker 7: second clock is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And this is,
• 32:15
  Speaker 7: we have run down our cushion. This is why we
• 32:19
  Speaker 7: can't simply open the spigots now to reduce the price
• 32:23
  Speaker 7: of gasoline and diesel in the United States. the way
• 32:26
  Speaker 7: the president might want to do. It's because we've run
• 32:29
  Speaker 7: down to the point where we're still doing a trickle out,
• 32:33
  Speaker 7: but if we were to have gushers come out, we
• 32:35
  Speaker 7: could actually collapse the walls. And what that means is
• 32:39
  Speaker 7: Trump doesn't have the option to improve his prospects here
• 32:44
  Speaker 7: And Iran may well increase the pressure. And just in
• 32:48
  Speaker 7: the last seven days, Iran has struck more ships in
• 32:51
  Speaker 7: the Strait of Hormuz than in any seven-day period since
• 32:55
  Speaker 7: the beginning of the war seven and a half months ago.
• 32:57
  Speaker 7: So this is a major clock weighing, I'm sure, on
• 33:01
  Speaker 7: the president. The third clock is a clock of opportunity
• 33:05
  Speaker 7: that I suspect is weighing on the president. which is
• 33:09
  Speaker 7: what are the economic costs inside of Iran right now? Now,
• 33:12
  Speaker 7: as you know, I've studied blockades, economic sanctions for 30 years,
• 33:16
  Speaker 7: not just air power for 30 years. And it is
• 33:19
  Speaker 7: the case that our blockade is having truly important economic
• 33:24
  Speaker 7: pressure inside of Iran. We have increased the inflation rate
• 33:29
  Speaker 7: inside of Iran to 89%, nearly 100%. But it is
• 33:35
  Speaker 7: not yet producing political concessions. So it's very easy to
• 33:39
  Speaker 7: imagine if you're sitting there with power that, oh, I'll
• 33:43
  Speaker 7: have the capability and the reason to do what? Hit
• 33:48
  Speaker 7: Iran now to drive up that inflation to 150 percent,
• 33:53
  Speaker 7: 200 percent. That is find the breaking point. And you've
• 33:57
  Speaker 7: heard President Trump use those terms. So now I want
• 34:00
  Speaker 7: to talk about the consequences of what are likely the
• 34:04
  Speaker 7: options coming on the desk in the Oval Office. So
• 34:08
  Speaker 7: I want to just pick two options, which anybody, I mean, somebody,
• 34:12
  Speaker 7: I'm just saying. So the first option is going to
• 34:15
  Speaker 7: be hitting oil refineries in Iran. and why oil refineries
• 34:23
  Speaker 7: exactly will be an option. The reason is because what
• 34:27
  Speaker 7: most people don't know, they all know Iran exports oil.
• 34:30
  Speaker 7: What most people don't know is two-thirds of Iran's oil
• 34:33
  Speaker 7: is used, consumed domestically. They don't export all of their oil,
• 34:38
  Speaker 7: and that's why inside of Iran, gasoline costs pennies, literally pennies. Now,
• 34:45
  Speaker 7: if you knock out the refineries under those conditions, We've
• 34:50
  Speaker 7: already blockaded the oil, so that's not the issue. The
• 34:54
  Speaker 7: issue is driving up the economic costs inside of Iran.
• 34:58
  Speaker 7: So this will be the incentive as you're looking at
• 35:02
  Speaker 7: these refineries. The problem here is Iran has escalation dominance.
• 35:09
  Speaker 7: It's not just a tit for tat, I want to
• 35:11
  Speaker 7: point out, that there is a very clear target. It's
• 35:15
  Speaker 7: already been hit on the edges just in the last week.
• 35:19
  Speaker 7: and that is Abqaiq. What Abqaiq is, is the largest
• 35:25
  Speaker 7: oil facility in the world. It is a Saudi oil
• 35:30
  Speaker 7: facility that handles 7 million barrels a day. That's over 5%
• 35:38
  Speaker 7: of the world's energy consumption in one facility. So that
• 35:45
  Speaker 7: amount of oil They separate there, by the way, the
• 35:48
  Speaker 7: sulfur from the oil. It's what makes it called sweeter.
• 35:52
  Speaker 7: That amount of oil, 7 million, is three times the
• 35:57
  Speaker 7: export of Iran's exports on its best days in the
• 36:01
  Speaker 7: last two years. So Iran doesn't just have tit for tat.
• 36:06
  Speaker 7: Iran can literally, with probably 20 drone and missile combination
• 36:12
  Speaker 7: that we cannot shoot down and you cannot bury that target, here,
• 36:17
  Speaker 7: they can knock out 5% of that oil, and then
• 36:20
  Speaker 7: we won't be worrying about the East-West Pipeline, because that's
• 36:24
  Speaker 7: what goes to the East-West Pipeline. We won't be worrying
• 36:26
  Speaker 7: about Yanbu, and we will truly be in a very
• 36:31
  Speaker 7: different world when it comes to The price of gasoline
• 36:36
  Speaker 7: and diesel and also our treasury rates. If we drive up,
• 36:41
  Speaker 7: if we do this, our treasury rates could easily, certainly
• 36:44
  Speaker 7: the 30-year bond, could easily go over 6%. And now
• 36:47
  Speaker 7: we're in not just recession territory. but deep economic territory.
• 36:53
  Speaker 7: This is a gift to Iran. Iran is so angry
• 36:57
  Speaker 7: at us right now. I think there are people, right now, Arachi,
• 37:00
  Speaker 7: the foreign minister, is in deep trouble for even talking
• 37:03
  Speaker 7: about a deal in New York, if you're following this
• 37:06
  Speaker 7: inside Iran. And what you are seeing is, I think
• 37:09
  Speaker 7: that there are large parts of the Iranian government itching
• 37:13
  Speaker 7: to wreck the American economy. So the biggest gift to
• 37:18
  Speaker 7: Iran would be the ground options. And I've been warning
• 37:22
  Speaker 7: about these for months. And I realize you folks have
• 37:26
  Speaker 7: pushed back on me. Oh, we couldn't possibly do this here.
• 37:29
  Speaker 7: I just want to point out why and what the
• 37:32
  Speaker 7: incentive would be to do it. What is the actual incentive?
• 37:38
  Speaker 7: So the key thing you need to know is that
• 37:42
  Speaker 7: Iran's drones and missiles require targeting locations separately from the
• 37:49
  Speaker 7: sensor on the drone and the missile. It's called, in
• 37:52
  Speaker 7: the military, the kill chain. That kill chain comes from
• 37:56
  Speaker 7: spotters that zero in to a location for the ship
• 38:01
  Speaker 7: that's supposed to be targeted that allows then the sensor
• 38:05
  Speaker 7: on the missile or drone to do the final work
• 38:09
  Speaker 7: of hitting the target. And that's what the main spotters
• 38:13
  Speaker 7: have been radars. So the reason we've been hitting radars
• 38:16
  Speaker 7: over the last few months is to knock out the
• 38:19
  Speaker 7: most obvious spotters by Iran, which are the radars. That's
• 38:24
  Speaker 7: not working, though. And that is what has been happening
• 38:26
  Speaker 7: just in the last week. So many people have been saying, well,
• 38:29
  Speaker 7: does Iran have the capability to hit ships? They've had
• 38:31
  Speaker 7: the capability. And now it's clear they have the capability.
• 38:36
  Speaker 7: So what's the incentive? The incentive would be go the
• 38:38
  Speaker 7: next step. and actually take the territory those raiders are on.
• 38:43
  Speaker 7: And that's Larrick Island, that's Hormuz Island, that is some
• 38:47
  Speaker 7: of the coastal areas of Iran. That's what the issue
• 38:51
  Speaker 7: actually is. And I'm bringing it up now because it's
• 38:54
  Speaker 7: now time to talk about clearly what the incentive would be. Now,
• 38:58
  Speaker 7: the problem here, and the reason this is a bad idea,
• 39:02
  Speaker 7: is because Iran doesn't need those specific pieces of territory, Larrick,
• 39:08
  Speaker 7: Chabahar or Bandar Abbas or Hormuz Island in order to spot.
• 39:15
  Speaker 7: It has other options. First of all, it has mobile radars. Second,
• 39:19
  Speaker 7: those fast boats, you might say, well, what do they
• 39:21
  Speaker 7: want those fast boats for anyway? What's that doing with Iran?
• 39:24
  Speaker 7: They're spotters. They are, and also fishing boats, by the way,
• 39:29
  Speaker 7: and they are able through eyeball contact to see a
• 39:32
  Speaker 7: ship and then radio it in with enough location for the,
• 39:37
  Speaker 7: and these could be coming from dozens of inlets here.
• 39:42
  Speaker 7: And then the third issue is, third option for Iran
• 39:45
  Speaker 7: is mines, which don't need spotters. And that is something that,
• 39:50
  Speaker 7: and what I'm pointing out is that the trade here
• 39:53
  Speaker 7: is we might try to do this because of the
• 39:55
  Speaker 7: military incentive. I'm pointing out that's what CENTCOM is going
• 39:59
  Speaker 7: to be reporting to President Trump. Here's the incentive. The
• 40:03
  Speaker 7: problem is that this will not be very effective in
• 40:07
  Speaker 7: shutting down the operational capability of the drones and missiles.
• 40:11
  Speaker 7: And Iran gets American fixed targets. They get to shoot
• 40:17
  Speaker 7: the fish in the barrel, and the terrain on all
• 40:22
  Speaker 7: of these areas has no cover. No cover. So what
• 40:27
  Speaker 7: does Iran get here with these rungs on the escalation ladder? Gifts.
• 40:32
  Speaker 7: And what are the gifts in one word? Targets. And
• 40:37
  Speaker 7: the biggest thing to be aware of, the opportunity for preemption.
• 40:43
  Speaker 7: You see, even moving the Roosevelt and the Marines in
• 40:48
  Speaker 7: this area is creating the spiral dynamics of the escalation trap.
• 40:54
  Speaker 7: That's why I've been calling on my escalation trap substack
• 40:58
  Speaker 7: for them to return home. Not good enough for President
• 41:02
  Speaker 7: Trump just, oh, I'm not necessarily going to use them.
• 41:06
  Speaker 7: This is creating the incentive for Iran for preemptions. Now,
• 41:11
  Speaker 7: just imagine if we in America saw Chinese vessels and
• 41:19
  Speaker 7: troops and naval ships coming to our coasts in Florida.
• 41:25
  Speaker 7: Are we really going to take Xi's word? He's not
• 41:28
  Speaker 7: going to use them. We're just going to come and
• 41:30
  Speaker 7: we're just coming for a port visit.
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: No.
• 41:34
  Speaker 7: Think of Iran going through this. So the danger zone
• 41:38
  Speaker 7: I'm pointing out is not simply will Trump have an
• 41:42
  Speaker 7: itchy trigger figure. I'm saying that the real set of
• 41:46
  Speaker 7: incentives is that plus Trump. Iran preemption, which I'm going
• 41:51
  Speaker 7: to be talking more about here in the coming weeks,
• 41:54
  Speaker 7: because this is how you get into these wicked spiral
• 41:59
  Speaker 7: phases of an escalation trap. And this is what I
• 42:02
  Speaker 7: want to talk about and why the real policy here
• 42:05
  Speaker 7: should be, Roosevelt, go home.
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: So, Professor, one theory that I've seen laid out by
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: others is that perhaps in advance of the midterms, there
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: may be a coinciding of logic from the Iranian side
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: and from the U.S. side that would incentivize some sort
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: of a deal before the midterms. From the Iranian side,
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: the thought would be Trump is under tons of pressure now.
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: because of the midterms, but after the midterms are over,
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: maybe we won't have so much leverage. So maybe we
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: can get a better deal now while he's feeling the pain.
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: The logic from Trump would be, I'm about to get
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: blown out. I need to do something about this Iran war.
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: Let me have some sort of a deal so I
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: can announce mission accomplished and hopefully gas prices can go
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: down a little bit and I won't have quite as
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: bad of a result as I would.
• 42:54
  Speaker 11: What do you think of that theory?
• 42:56
  Speaker 7: I'll make two points. Number one, if there was any
• 42:59
  Speaker 7: real substance to that, Arachi would not be now at
• 43:02
  Speaker 7: risk of his life. So this is not a small
• 43:06
  Speaker 7: thing that's happening to Arachi. And it doesn't have to
• 43:10
  Speaker 7: be simply the government who might penalize him. Him being
• 43:16
  Speaker 7: he when he went through the Supreme Leader's funeral, there
• 43:19
  Speaker 7: were people calling for his death into his face. So
• 43:23
  Speaker 7: number one here is that. Number two, Crystal, and this
• 43:27
  Speaker 7: is the real problem, there's no firm set point for
• 43:30
  Speaker 7: a deal. So this whole idea of a deal is
• 43:33
  Speaker 7: really by people who say, well, wait a minute, war
• 43:35
  Speaker 7: is bad, war is costly. Can't we just solve this
• 43:38
  Speaker 7: with a deal without all the debt? Well, if that
• 43:41
  Speaker 7: were true, Crystal, we wouldn't have had World War I,
• 43:43
  Speaker 7: World War II, all of the wars in history. So
• 43:46
  Speaker 7: the problem here is not that these are not well-meaning
• 43:49
  Speaker 7: people who are coming up with these ideas. And I'm
• 43:51
  Speaker 7: not surprised that you have people who come from business
• 43:55
  Speaker 7: who say, you know what? Blood is costly. Let's just
• 43:57
  Speaker 7: do this like the godfather.
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 44:00
  Speaker 7: And the problem is that this is not the real world.
• 44:02
  Speaker 7: The real world is there's no set point. Even if
• 44:05
  Speaker 7: there was a deal struck, as there was on June
• 44:08
  Speaker 7: 17th with the MOU, it would likely collapse within days,
• 44:12
  Speaker 7: just as the MOU did, because there's no set point here.
• 44:17
  Speaker 7: Both sides are trying to gain power over the other.
• 44:22
  Speaker 7: And until you would have acceptance by both sides of
• 44:27
  Speaker 7: what the new power is, a balance of power, you
• 44:31
  Speaker 7: won't have an end to the war. And I don't
• 44:32
  Speaker 7: believe Iran will truly accept surrendering its power in Hormuz.
• 44:40
  Speaker 7: And I don't believe Trump will truly accept giving Iran
• 44:44
  Speaker 7: the power of Hormuz. Because what that's about is not money.
• 44:48
  Speaker 7: It's about Iran becoming the fourth center of world power.
• 44:54
  Speaker 7: No state in history has truly wanted to abandon power.
• 45:01
  Speaker 7: And this is what you're at. This is what we're asking.
• 45:03
  Speaker 7: So I like the idea of a deal. I would
• 45:06
  Speaker 7: love there to be a deal. Some of the people
• 45:08
  Speaker 7: advocating for a deal are people I highly respect, not
• 45:11
  Speaker 7: just journalists. And the problem is this doesn't work. It's
• 45:15
  Speaker 7: also why, by the way, Joe Kent and others call
• 45:19
  Speaker 7: me for just walking away. Notice they're not walking away.
• 45:23
  Speaker 7: And as I've talked many times to Joe about, it's
• 45:26
  Speaker 7: not that I disagree with his policy so much. It's
• 45:29
  Speaker 7: not realistic politically. You're just not going to get President
• 45:32
  Speaker 7: Trump to accept he will become Jimmy Carter without quite
• 45:37
  Speaker 7: a fight here. And that's what you're seeing.
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: So the one thing I'd ask is on the logic
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: of Iran needing to preempt this, the counter argument would
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: be we're looking at, we're approaching 6%, you know, on
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: the 10-year and the two-year treasury as it is. Yesterday,
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: mortgage rates were at 7.4%, oil over $ 100. The West
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: and the U.S. in particular are bleeding badly, and it's
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: not existential for the U.S., So yes, Iran is suffering,
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: but it's existential for them. So therefore, just by definition,
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: they're willing to take more pain. At the same time,
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: every day that there's not a hot conflict, they're able
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: to build more ballistic missiles, more drones, import more missiles
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: and drones from Russia or China, wherever they're getting them,
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: and prepare better for whenever the confrontation comes again. So
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: that would be the counterargument to say that actually, Iran
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: is in better shape letting us bleed and letting themselves
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: build up while they wait next time. What do you
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: make of that?
• 46:45
  Speaker 7: So one real point here, Ryan, which is if you
• 46:48
  Speaker 7: were Iran, what would it take for you to be
• 46:50
  Speaker 7: persuaded that America has learned its lesson? What would it
• 46:54
  Speaker 7: really take? And let me posit what might be a
• 46:57
  Speaker 7: credible thing, which is, number one, the Democrats take both
• 47:01
  Speaker 7: houses of Congress. And number two, they passed a veto-proof
• 47:06
  Speaker 7: resolution through Congress that ends money for the war. So
• 47:12
  Speaker 7: if you got both of those things and you're in Tehran,
• 47:15
  Speaker 7: you're probably saying, OK, I'm not sure the Democrats might
• 47:20
  Speaker 7: bail on this. But if I get the Democrats in
• 47:23
  Speaker 7: power and I get veto-proof resolution to end the war,
• 47:28
  Speaker 7: that's what happened in 1974, how we actually ended the
• 47:32
  Speaker 7: Vietnam War. Now I think you're talking. Short of that, Ryan,
• 47:35
  Speaker 7: this is just smoke and mirrors. There's no there there.
• 47:38
  Speaker 7: There's nothing to actually bet on if you're in Tehran.
• 47:43
  Speaker 7: And keep in mind, for Iran, for them to take
• 47:46
  Speaker 7: the risk, this is the risk at their life. So
• 47:49
  Speaker 7: you're asking, not you personally, but that position is asking
• 47:53
  Speaker 7: Iran to take a sucker deal. Hey, we're going to
• 47:57
  Speaker 7: promise to give you the money. Let me give you
• 47:59
  Speaker 7: the IOU, and then we'll promise to pay you in
• 48:02
  Speaker 7: installments over the next few years. But you give me
• 48:06
  Speaker 7: everything I want up front right now. That's the whole
• 48:09
  Speaker 7: problem here.
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: Well, it wouldn't be that they would take a deal.
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: It would be that they just would continue the status quo.
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: It's still the same thing.
• 48:16
  Speaker 7: Until the U.S. busted it open. I'm sorry to interrupt,
• 48:18
  Speaker 7: but whether the deal is written or not, it's still
• 48:20
  Speaker 7: the same idea. OK, so in my world of international politics,
• 48:25
  Speaker 7: it doesn't matter whether the deal is actually written down
• 48:27
  Speaker 7: or not here. It's still the same thing. And what
• 48:31
  Speaker 7: their incentive is, Ryan, is to drive up the costs
• 48:35
  Speaker 7: on America through the first week in January. And that
• 48:39
  Speaker 7: is through when you might not. It's not just the vote.
• 48:44
  Speaker 7: It's the counting of the vote. ceding of the new representatives,
• 48:49
  Speaker 7: because it's not clear. We've had January 6th. If you're
• 48:52
  Speaker 7: in Iran, you know there was a January 6th. The
• 48:55
  Speaker 7: president is still the same president. So you're going to
• 48:58
  Speaker 7: wait until you see, will the Democrats actually be able
• 49:01
  Speaker 7: to take power? And then the second thing is, once
• 49:03
  Speaker 7: they take power, can they actually do anything with that
• 49:06
  Speaker 7: power that's meaningful? And if not, then it's the imperial president.
• 49:11
  Speaker 7: He's just going to be able to do what he's
• 49:13
  Speaker 7: going to do. And you're missing your opportunity here. And
• 49:18
  Speaker 7: so the way to handle this, if you're Iran, the
• 49:20
  Speaker 7: incentive structure is to ramp up the costs. And by
• 49:24
  Speaker 7: the way, Ryan, this is what I said starting June 15th,
• 49:27
  Speaker 7: that they would ramp up the costs. They are ramping
• 49:30
  Speaker 7: up the costs. So that position you laid out is
• 49:34
  Speaker 7: exactly the debate we had on June 17th. And the
• 49:36
  Speaker 7: problem is Iran is following their incentives. It It's not
• 49:42
  Speaker 7: a weird set of incentives. These are not perverse incentives.
• 49:47
  Speaker 7: They are driving a hard bargain. This is what it
• 49:49
  Speaker 7: looks like. This is what the hard bargaining actually looks
• 49:53
  Speaker 7: like in international politics.
• 49:55
  Speaker 6: Professor Pape, how would any of this change or not
• 49:58
  Speaker 6: change if President Trump were to authorize U.S. involvement, well,
• 50:03
  Speaker 6: more direct U.S. involvement with the Houthis right now?
• 50:06
  Speaker 7: What that would do is speed up the preemption incentives
• 50:13
  Speaker 7: here for Iran. So if we get involved in the
• 50:19
  Speaker 7: Houthi situation at all, whether it's bombing, whether we move
• 50:23
  Speaker 7: the Marines over, et cetera, et cetera, it doesn't really
• 50:26
  Speaker 7: matter what the option is. All of those just add
• 50:30
  Speaker 7: to the possible pressure because then you have Pakistan possibly
• 50:33
  Speaker 7: coming in. You start with that. So all of that means, um,
• 50:38
  Speaker 7: Iran's window for preemption, um, uh, intensifies, and I wouldn't
• 50:44
  Speaker 7: want to be an ab cake, uh, here, um, when
• 50:47
  Speaker 7: that happens. So this is, and it's not just ab
• 50:50
  Speaker 7: cake as a facility, uh, here. Um, it really is
• 50:53
  Speaker 7: important to understand that if ab cake goes down MBS,
• 50:57
  Speaker 7: the government, uh, is fragile. And so if I, if, if, um,
• 51:02
  Speaker 7: If I'm MBS, I better have some really good real
• 51:05
  Speaker 7: estate in New York, Paris, and London, because this war
• 51:10
  Speaker 7: that's escalating in Yemen is escalating in the wrong way.
• 51:14
  Speaker 7: And this is not the way to handle this if
• 51:19
  Speaker 7: you're MBS. So again, this is getting into the issue
• 51:22
  Speaker 7: of MBS. So I'm about to talk about this on
• 51:24
  Speaker 7: Sunday on Professor Pate. What's happening is they're in their
• 51:28
  Speaker 7: own escalation trap, MBS is. And he's making the same
• 51:31
  Speaker 7: mistakes that Trump is making, that Putin made in his
• 51:35
  Speaker 7: escalation trap. Now MBS is making the same mistakes. The
• 51:39
  Speaker 7: problem is MBS is weaker than Russia and weaker than
• 51:43
  Speaker 7: the United States. So when MBS makes these mistakes, you
• 51:47
  Speaker 7: better get those good real estate deals now. I'm sorry
• 51:52
  Speaker 7: to make it a little, I mean, it's such a
• 51:54
  Speaker 7: serious situation. We've got to let off some of the
• 51:57
  Speaker 7: some of the tension. But honestly, I mean, this is
• 52:00
  Speaker 7: literally what I would be saying in meetings with the kingdom.
• 52:04
  Speaker 7: I mean, I'm not, there would be no real, maybe
• 52:07
  Speaker 7: a little more detail on how the escalation dynamics would
• 52:10
  Speaker 7: actually play out. But in terms of the incentive structure,
• 52:13
  Speaker 7: they're going down, they're handling this the wrong way. All right.
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: Well, we hope the kingdom is watching. This was informative
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: as always, Professor. And of course, All of this and
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: more is broken down weekly on your sub stack, which
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: we will be linking in the description.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: How did I do as your TA today, professor? Did
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: I do okay?
• 52:36
  Speaker 7: I'll tell you if you ever need another job, Griffin,
• 52:39
  Speaker 7: you just let me know. And I've got my YouTube channel. Okay.
• 52:43
  Speaker 7: The problem is the guy who's helping me with my
• 52:45
  Speaker 7: YouTube channel is working 40 hours a week. He's doing
• 52:49
  Speaker 7: it for free. So you're probably not free. I am not.
• 52:54
  Speaker 7: You might think I'm making all this money. I just
• 52:57
  Speaker 7: had a giant wedding with my daughter. Until we get
• 53:02
  Speaker 7: to your stage of the breaking points, there's no money,
• 53:06
  Speaker 7: as you probably know.
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: I'll take paid exposure. Professor, thank you as always. And
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: we'll be checking back in with you again soon.
• 53:15
  Speaker 7: Thank you very much. Thank you for all you're doing here.
• 53:18
  Speaker 7: It's so important. And I so appreciate. I really honestly
• 53:23
  Speaker 7: don't put this online. OK, but I really having spent
• 53:28
  Speaker 7: 30 years member advising every White House and dot, dot, dot.
• 53:32
  Speaker 7: This was this is a critical few days. And that's
• 53:35
  Speaker 7: why I pushed on this here. Now, I'm not inside.
• 53:38
  Speaker 7: I can't say absolutely as an insider. I'm just telling you,
• 53:42
  Speaker 7: when you see these atmospherics here, now is the time
• 53:46
  Speaker 7: real decisions and expectations are being set. And it's very
• 53:51
  Speaker 7: important to do this. And you have just a lot
• 53:54
  Speaker 7: of the right people watching you.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely.
• 53:57
  Speaker 7: You know what?
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: That was a great compliment. I'm putting that online, Professor.
• 54:00
  Speaker 7: Sorry. Okay, you put that online. You put that on.
• 54:03
  Speaker 7: But it's very important because we don't understand that these
• 54:07
  Speaker 7: decision makers are human beings. I have had a chance
• 54:10
  Speaker 7: to see them before the decisions are actually taken. So
• 54:13
  Speaker 7: I get a chance to see this without the cameras on.
• 54:16
  Speaker 7: And I'm not saying that they follow the things I'm saying. No,
• 54:19
  Speaker 7: that's not it at all. And they do the pushback
• 54:21
  Speaker 7: very much like you guys do. And so the issue here, though,
• 54:24
  Speaker 7: is not understanding. We're so cynical about our politics. We're saying, oh,
• 54:29
  Speaker 7: there's nothing I can do. There's nothing I can do.
• 54:33
  Speaker 7: That's what leads to political violence. But yes, there is
• 54:36
  Speaker 7: stuff we can do. And it's really important. And I've
• 54:40
  Speaker 7: seen this. A really good example was Barack Obama was
• 54:43
  Speaker 7: hours away from launching 100 cruise missiles into Syria in 2013.
• 54:49
  Speaker 7: And that would have sucked us in to a wider
• 54:53
  Speaker 7: forever war. So you think the forever war in Iraq
• 54:56
  Speaker 7: was bad. Man, you get sucked into Syria. You're in deep,
• 54:59
  Speaker 7: deep trouble. Well, what happened is I argued very, very
• 55:03
  Speaker 7: vigorously with that I don't care what the red lines are.
• 55:07
  Speaker 7: President Obama is the strongest person on the planet. And
• 55:11
  Speaker 7: if this is a mistake, it's a mistake. Don't do
• 55:14
  Speaker 7: this simply because you said you would. And thank goodness
• 55:18
  Speaker 7: he didn't do it because Syria went on for a decade.
• 55:23
  Speaker 7: I mean, just think about this. We're never going to
• 55:25
  Speaker 7: get out of that. Right, right.
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: And Syria is looking really great right now. Professor, we
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: have another guest, so we got to jump. Thank you,
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: as always.
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: We'll see you very soon.
• 55:36
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: Another returning champion to breaking points. We have William Lawrence,
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: who's running for Congress for Michigan's 7th District. Welcome back
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: to Breaking Points, Will.
• 55:46
  Speaker 10: Thank you. Glad to be here. One of the best.
• 55:48
  Speaker 6: Backdrops I think we've seen from a candidate, too, I
• 55:50
  Speaker 6: have to say.
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: Those look handmade. It doesn't look like you had AI
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: make those. Those look human-made.
• 55:58
  Speaker 10: It's got the human touch.
• 56:00
  Speaker 7: It does.
• 56:00
  Speaker 10: Incredible.
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: And speaking of AI, I did want to get you
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: to react first to this story that came across our
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: desk this morning. Scoop from Axios top executives at Anthropic.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: OpenAI and other AI companies are privately gaming out scenarios
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: for a public and political revolt after a catastrophic AI event.
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: Those events that they are considering include a shutdown of
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: financial systems and even of water and electricity.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: William, what do you make of that?
• 56:31
  Speaker 14: Well, it's very alarming. You know, I've been a leader
• 56:34
  Speaker 14: here in Michigan, standing with residents fighting back against data
• 56:38
  Speaker 14: centers for the last year. And here's how it's gone
• 56:43
  Speaker 14: when the A.I. lawyers and PR agents come to town.
• 56:47
  Speaker 14: They say, basically, we're here to come suck up all
• 56:49
  Speaker 14: your water, use all your energy, more than the city
• 56:52
  Speaker 14: of Detroit.
• 56:53
  Speaker 10: We're going to ruin your home values.
• 56:55
  Speaker 14: But if everything goes well, we're going to put 20
• 56:58
  Speaker 14: million people out of work. But if we mess up,
• 57:03
  Speaker 14: We might kill everybody by accident.
• 57:06
  Speaker 10: I don't know.
• 57:06
  Speaker 14: It just hasn't been very persuasive. And this is another
• 57:08
  Speaker 14: example of the question people are asking. Why is it
• 57:12
  Speaker 14: that we're building these data centers when they're saying that
• 57:15
  Speaker 14: it may be used to shut down the entire financial
• 57:18
  Speaker 14: system or create a bioweapon?
• 57:19
  Speaker 10: The costs simply outweigh the benefits.
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: And you made that case most recently in your debate
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: against Mr.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: Barrett here. So I did want to play a little bit.
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: From that debate specifically about AI to see what your
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: opponent has to say about all this.
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
• 57:37
  Speaker 9: My record on this is clear. I have a record
• 57:44
  Speaker 9: that is clear for it.
• 57:45
  Speaker 10: It's a completely different issue.
• 57:47
  Speaker 15: You've been running these ads celebrating your voting data centers.
• 57:50
  Speaker 15: This is completely different from the fight that we're fighting now,
• 57:53
  Speaker 15: which is against hyperscale data centers, these behemoths that are
• 57:56
  Speaker 15: threatening to destroy everything about the communities we love. You
• 58:00
  Speaker 15: voted last year to prevent local control, local regulation of
• 58:05
  Speaker 15: AI or data centers for the next 10 years. That
• 58:08
  Speaker 15: means that if a school district didn't want AI in
• 58:10
  Speaker 15: the classrooms, they would not be allowed to do so.
• 58:12
  Speaker 15: If we wanted to say that AI could not be
• 58:15
  Speaker 15: used to deny medical claims, they would not be allowed
• 58:17
  Speaker 15: to make that regulation.
• 58:19
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: So it does seem like a.
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: Opponents, especially on the Republican side, are trying to stake
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: out some sort of territory on this issue, but it
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: seems a little flimsy. He said that that's not true,
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: that he passed a bill with a 10-year ban on
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: AI laws.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: Could you explain that a little bit more?
• 58:39
  Speaker 6: And Will, can you also just tacking on to that,
• 58:41
  Speaker 6: can you tell us a little bit what you're hearing
• 58:42
  Speaker 6: on the ground from voters when you talk to them?
• 58:44
  Speaker 6: Does this matter? Is this like abstract beltway conversation or
• 58:47
  Speaker 6: do people really care about this too?
• 58:49
  Speaker 10: People really care about it.
• 58:51
  Speaker 14: People started caring about it because the data centers were,
• 58:54
  Speaker 14: you know, just plopping down or proposing to plop down
• 58:57
  Speaker 14: in their backyards and they weren't happy about it. But
• 59:00
  Speaker 14: the AI conversation has always been in the background. People
• 59:03
  Speaker 14: are saying, you know, for the sake of what? I mean,
• 59:06
  Speaker 14: here in Michigan, you know, this is an industrial state.
• 59:08
  Speaker 14: We build things. We build cars. If you're talking about
• 59:11
  Speaker 14: an auto plant that is going to create thousands of
• 59:14
  Speaker 14: good jobs and actually build things that.
• 59:17
  Speaker 10: People agree we need, you know, that's one thing.
• 59:20
  Speaker 14: But if you're talking about a data center that's only
• 59:22
  Speaker 14: creating a couple of dozen of permanent jobs, And then
• 59:25
  Speaker 14: the upshot of it is that we're going to have
• 59:28
  Speaker 14: the risk of some sort of runaway AI that is.
• 59:32
  Speaker 10: Also going to put us out of work. It just
• 59:34
  Speaker 10: is not persuasive.
• 59:35
  Speaker 14: And so I'm really thrilled that the conversation about data
• 59:38
  Speaker 14: centers and AI safety have now seemingly arrived at the
• 59:42
  Speaker 14: same station. Finally, there was a lot of months where
• 59:45
  Speaker 14: it was sort of simmering under the surface. And I'm
• 59:48
  Speaker 14: really glad that we're having this conversation all in one now.
• 59:51
  Speaker 14: But you saw Tom Barrett, my opponent, buffering there when
• 59:54
  Speaker 14: he was trying to recall what his incredibly clear position
• 59:58
  Speaker 14: on data centers actually is. Because the fact of the
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 14: matter is, data center developers spent nearly a million dollars
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 14: to get him elected in the last cycle.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 10: Then he turned.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 14: Around and gave them $ 80 billion in tax breaks through
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 14: the big bill. He also voted, as I noted, to
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 14: prevent any local or state regulation of AI in data
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 14: centers for the next 10 years. That thank God, did
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 14: not pass. No thanks to him. But it was because
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 14: the United States Senate took that provision out of the
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 14: final bill that actually passed. If it had passed, I mean,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 14: think about how radical and reckless this was. House Republicans
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 14: voted to ban any municipal or state regulation of AI
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 14: or data centers for the next 10 years. That's what
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 14: they did last year in their infinite wisdom. It would
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 14: be catastrophic if that had happened. I mean, look at
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 14: where we are now, the conversations we're having now. They
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 14: wanted to tie our hands behind our back before this
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 14: conversation around AI safety could really even get started. So thankfully,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 14: cooler heads prevailed in that case. But, you know, Barrett
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 14: voted the wrong way. And then, you know, he got
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 14: the same memo as a lot of other people about
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 14: six weeks ago where, you know, they said, oh boy.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: This is really unpopular. Yeah, let me ask you about that.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: He alludes in that clip I think it was about
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: two weeks after you won the primary, largely on running
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: on opposition to data centers. He says, well, now I
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: sponsored a good bill, which seems similar to his kind
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: of turnaround on the war. But what is that good
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: bill that he's referring to that he recently co-sponsored?
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 10: He keeps going back to it. He's struggling to get
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 10: it right.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 14: First, he sponsored a bill that, to hear him tell it,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 14: banned nondisclosure agreements for data center developers. But then when
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 14: we went and we read the text of the bill,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 14: it said NDAs are banned for members of Congress, but
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 14: state and municipal officials can continue to sign NDAs. that's
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 14: been the problem. The rub hasn't been Congress members. I mean,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 14: maybe he knows something I don't. Maybe he has an NDA.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 14: Every accusation is a confession, as we say. But, you know,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 14: it's the local officials that have been the issue that
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 14: people have been really pissed about here in the district.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 14: And his bill did nothing to deal with that. Now,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 14: he got called out because that bill did nothing. And
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 14: now he's introduced another bill or co-sponsored another bill that
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 14: probably isn't going to go anywhere.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 10: That goes farther on the NDAs.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 14: So I give him that modicum of credit that he
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 14: is a co-sponsor now on a bill that would ban NDAs.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 14: He's introduced or co-sponsored some other bills that are, there's
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 14: a lot of bills. I think there are a lot
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 14: of congressmen and women around the country right now who
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 14: are trying to give the appearance of doing something when
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 14: it comes to the question of AI and data centers
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 14: because of just how hot it's gotten over the last
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 14: few weeks. So he's co-sponsored a few of these, but
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 14: people can see that he's scrambling and trying to cover
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 14: his butt because he was on the wrong side of this,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 14: decidedly so, for the first 18 months of his term
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 14: in office.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 6: And where are you on whether Hakeem Jeffries should maintain
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 6: his position? Should you be elected? How would you handle
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 6: the question of getting or keeping Hakeem Jeffries in the
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 6: position of leadership or finding new leadership for the caucus?
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 14: I've been on the record that I support Hakeem to
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 14: be the next Speaker of the House because we need
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 14: unity among the Democratic caucus moving into January to be
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 14: able to focus on reversing the damage that the Trump
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 14: administration has done over the last two years, as well
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 14: as having a full accountability agenda so Hegseth and Trump
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 14: and the rest of them can really be put under
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 14: the scrutiny that they deserve for their brazen corruption. beginning
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 14: in January, rather than, you know, having a knockdown drag
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 14: out fight within the Democratic caucus that wouldn't serve our
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 14: interests of holding the current powers that be accountable.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: Is there unity in the Democratic leadership on this AI issue?
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: Is Hakeem Jeffries and others aligned with your takes? I mean,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: what I hear from a lot of other Democrats is
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: that they're scared to be as out and out on
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: this issue as you are because the amount of money
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: that could pour into their own races for opponents against them.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: So what is your sense of Democratic leadership? And are
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: people like Hakeem Jeffries going to go along with bills
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: like the Bernie bill that is causing calling for a
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: pause on all AI development?
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 14: I haven't had that conversation yet with leadership, so that's
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 14: something we'll take up on November 4th. But it does
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 14: seem like there's a moment right now where people really
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 14: are waking up in a sincere way to the threats
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 14: that are coming from AI. I mean, the scenarios you
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 14: just described, that the labs are scenario planning. I think
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 14: there is an opportunity, not just among the Democrats, but
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 14: I think there may be some genuine opportunity for even
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 14: a modest degree of bipartisanship to move on some of
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 14: these issues in January. Now, maybe that's optimistic. We'll have
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 14: to see. But the reason for my optimism there comes
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 14: from the fact that I am seeing complete bipartisanship here
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 14: in the district among Republicans and independents and Democrats who
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 14: have been united in large numbers in fighting against data
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 14: centers and now are catching up to the conversation around
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 14: AI safety if they weren't already there. So if we
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 14: can translate that spirit you know, to DC, I think
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 14: there may be a possibility of getting something real done
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 14: in the early parts of next year. You know, I've
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 14: introduced my stop tech overreach plan, which would put an
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 14: immediate pause on new data centers and advanced AI development
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 14: for the sake of then brokering an AI benefits compact
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 14: that ensures, you know, as we, you know, move forward
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 14: with this world-changing technology, how can we ensure that it actually,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 14: you know, helps everybody rather than entrenching the power, you know,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 14: the power of a few. How is it that we're
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 14: going to maintain human literacy and critical thinking rather than
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 14: allowing AI to take over our entire educational system? How
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 14: is it we're going to ensure that humanity remains at
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 14: the center even as we continue to use these tools,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 14: which is, you know, we're tool using animals. So I'm
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 14: not somebody who says we should swear it off entirely,
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 14: but we do need to make sure that it is
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 14: within our control and we keep our humanity and human
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 14: values at the center. Just as an aside, I think
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 14: the Pope is one of the people who has been
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 14: doing some of the boldest and most consistent communication on this,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 14: thinking about the kind of values that we need to
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 14: be keeping in mind as we navigate this world with
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 14: this new AI technology.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: So Congress has passed a war powers resolution kind of
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: ordering an end to the Iran war. Trump has kind
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: of flagrantly ignored that and continues to prosecute the war.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 3: He's sending a bunch more you know, assets to the
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 3: region as we speak, would you commit to voting against
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: any spending for the war? In other words, deploying Congress's,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: you know, power of the purse to kind of force
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: an end, even if it means kind of a showdown
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: with your own leadership or even potentially a shutdown. Because
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: I can imagine a world where Republicans are just refusing
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: to vote for any Democratic budget, meaning that Jeffries or
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: whoever's in leadership would need 218 Democrats to get something
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: across the board, which would give a handful of House
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: Democrats leverage to say, I'm not voting for anything unless
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: it bars any money for the Iran war. I was
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: elected to end this war. We're going to end the war.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 9: Yep.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 7: Yes, Ryan.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 14: Actually, saying no to war and setting our national priorities straight,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 14: bringing our money home and investing in the American people
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 14: has been a core plank of my campaign from the
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 14: very beginning. It's one of the reasons why I got
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 14: into this race was to fight for a reevaluation of
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 14: our national priorities to put in check the out-of-control war
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 14: budget and make different choices with where we put our
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 14: precious time and creativity and resources. So there is no
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 14: fight that I'm more eager for than that fight to
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 14: ensure that we end this war in Iran and we
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 14: put a check on the out-of-control war budget, which is
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 14: now climbing up.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 10: To $ 1.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 14: 4 trillion on the back of trillions of dollars over
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 14: the last 25 years to fight forever wars, which we
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 14: can all see have made us less safe and less
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 14: prosperous as a nation, contrary to all the promises that
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 14: were made.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 6: So I host a show where we get callers, and
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 6: I got a guy named Robin Michigan who called a
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 6: couple weeks ago. He drives a diesel pickup for his business,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 6: And there was also that SuperVowel clip of the MSNOW
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 6: host having that focus group just a couple of days ago,
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 6: Michigan voters who were uncertain Trump voters, who some of
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 6: them said they were voting for Abdul El-Sayed. And so
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 6: my question to you, Will, is, As somebody who comes
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 6: really from like the left flank of the Democratic Party,
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 6: how are you talking to people who are desperate, who
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 6: are disillusioned with Trump, maybe disillusioned with Republicans in general,
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 6: but are a little nervous about voting for somebody who
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 6: they consider to be like radical socialist? That's their opinion.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 6: I'm putting that in their mouths, not in mine necessarily. Well,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 6: what does that mean for you to have those conversations
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 6: and how are you having those conversations?
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 14: You know, I really do believe that it's our politics
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 14: are more about, you know, top versus bottom than left
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 14: versus right. It's been said many times. I have found
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 14: it to be true on this campaign. And there are,
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 14: you know, multi-time Trump voters who will be voting for me,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 14: who already voted for me in some cases in the primary,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 14: because they've seen me at their town hall meetings fighting
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 14: back against data centers. There are Trump voters who will
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 14: be voting for me because they are farmers who are
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 14: putting diesel in their combines for $ 7 a gallon, $ 1, 000
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 14: or more every day from some of the farmers I've heard.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 14: And they're wondering if they're going to break even at
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 14: all on this year's harvest because it's just so damn
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 14: expensive to put the fuel in the combine. And they
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 14: know that the war is the reason for it. Another
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 14: big issue that is really pissing people off all over
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 14: Michigan is is the tariffs because tariffs are supposed to
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 14: be part of industrial and trade policy strategy for the
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 14: sake of putting American workers and business and consumers first.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 14: And I'm someone who believes that tariffs can be important
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 14: when they're applied strategically and consistently. But what everybody wants
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 14: from the economy is some kind of clarity. You want
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 14: to know what the prices are going to be next
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 14: month so you can plan your budget. If you're an investor,
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 14: you need to know what the business conditions are going
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 14: to be next year so you can make your investment decisions.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 14: When Trump wakes up in the morning and he sets
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 14: the tariff rate 525 or 55 percent based on, I guess,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 14: how his mood is that day or whoever had his
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 14: ear last, that is the opposite of reliable business and
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 14: market conditions. And Congress had the opportunity to take a
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 14: vote to restrain the president from continuing to set these
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 14: tariffs because he's so obviously unfit. And Tom Barrett voted
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 14: to allow the president to do whatever he's doing. And
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 14: he can't answer for that vote to this day. I mean,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 14: he's made a lot of reversals on a lot of things,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 14: but he stands by that vote to this day. He
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 14: thinks the president should continue to set the tariffs based
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 14: on Lord knows what. And so that's a huge issue
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 14: that has been impacting people. And a lot of Republicans,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 14: a lot of Democrats, people in rural areas, anybody who
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 14: puts diesel in a piece of equipment understands that. you know,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 14: that the war has been catastrophic. And anybody who works
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 14: in business or has a small business or works in
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 14: industry understands that the tariffs have been catastrophic, especially here
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 14: in Michigan, because of our close integration with our neighbors
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 14: in Canada.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 3: And I've got one more debate clip, unless you have one.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: I had the tariff one, but he kind of he
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: kind of just did it unless you have a different one.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: Let me see what I got here. Oh, I got
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 3: the one where you kind of flip the script on
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: the Who is responsible for the deficit, Democrats or Republicans?
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: Let me find this one.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 9: So the top 1% of Americans after the reforms that
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 9: we took on to the tax code are actually paying
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 9: a higher percentage of the federal taxes in our country. Meanwhile,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 9: working families are paying less. If you're a family of
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 9: four making $ 73, 000 a year or less in income, you
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 9: are paying nothing in federal tax liability.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: That is because of the efforts we took on.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 10: And now the top 1% are actually paying more.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 9: And their income tax rate wasn't driven down by the
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 9: tax cuts that we passed. We put more money in
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 9: the hands of working families. We do need to address
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 9: our debt and our deficit, but there is not enough
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 9: billionaires out there to pay for the deficit.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 7: Mr.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 9: Lawrence, you have 30 seconds to respond.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 16: Tom Barrett voted to give tax breaks to billionaires. He
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 16: voted to cut your health care. He voted to make
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 16: your gas and groceries more expensive. And he's voted to
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 16: increase the national debt. He is running from his record
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 16: because he knows he has repeatedly voted over the last
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 16: few years to make your life more expensive while making
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 16: our country weaker. He has no answers for his record
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 16: or that of his failed president.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 3: It seems like the beginning of that is about a
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: tax on billionaires. You talk about this kind of flipping
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 3: the script where it's, you know, traditionally it's Democrats who
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 3: are blamed for driving up the debt. But that might
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: not be working anymore.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 7: No.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 14: The question from the moderators was about the debt, and
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 14: that's what we were responding to directly while speaking about
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 14: the economy at large. But Trump is responsible for 30
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 14: percent of the national debt, and the Republicans have voted
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 14: in lockstep for that, including my opponent Tom Barrett. They
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 14: voted to give trillions of dollars in tax breaks to
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 14: the wealthiest 1 percent, and most of that goes to
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 14: the wealthiest 1 percent of the 1 percent. So they
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 14: just have no leg to stand on in this country. And,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 14: you know, this is the thing that we need to remember.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 14: They are destroying everything that people love about this country.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 14: The economic security, the social safety net, the political order
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 14: that is based on checks and balances and peaceful transition
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 14: of power. I mean, it's easy to take for granted,
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 14: or it was for much of our life, that regardless
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 14: of how you think things are going, right direction, wrong direction,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 14: you know, in two years or in four years, there's
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 14: going to be another election. There's going to be a
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 14: peaceful transition of power. There's going to be an opportunity
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 14: to have a change, to change course, and to get
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 14: it right. That does a lot for your peace of
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 14: mind when there's somebody you don't like up there in
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 14: Congress or in the Oval Office. Now, we lack that
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 14: peace of mind because it's clear that they don't have
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 14: any respect for checks and balances or the peaceful transition
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 14: of power whatsoever. I mean, Donald Trump and Tom Barrett
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 14: and the whole faction of which they are a part
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 14: is responsible for destroying that which has been best about
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 14: our country. And I don't think we can say that
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 14: too many times. All of this fear-mongering and mudslinging that
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 14: they want to cast against Democrats, against progressives, against whoever,
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 14: saying that we are the ones who would sow chaos,
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 14: it just is not credible when people can see that
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 14: we are living in a world of chaos. And the
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 14: lion's share of that is the responsibility of the man
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 14: currently sitting in the White House and his lackeys in
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 14: Congress like Tom Barrett.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: Well, Will, it's always a pleasure to talk to you.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: You've got just a couple weeks left in your big
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: race here. Where can people find more? And if they
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: do want to support you, where can they support you?
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 10: Go to wewill2026. com.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 14: You can donate, you can sign up to make phone calls,
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 14: you can sign up to knock doors here in the district.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 14: We're knocking more doors than any house campaign in the country,
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 14: or so I'm told. We've got an amazing people-powered movement
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 14: here in mid-Michigan. It is going to be a very,
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 14: very close election, and I just want to make that clear.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 14: All of the polling we've seen has been within the
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 14: margin of error. It's going to come right down to
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 14: the wire. And it could be decided just by a
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 14: few hundred votes. And by helping out our campaign here
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 14: in the 7th District, you also help our shared efforts
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 14: to elect Abdul El-Sayed for United States Senate, another critical
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 14: race for reasons we all know. And I'm proud to
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 14: be on the ticket with Abdul. And I'm excited to
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 14: go win this thing on November 3rd with your help.
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 14: We're not taking any corporate money. So it's a people-powered campaign,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 14: both with the small donations and with all of the
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 14: hours that people are putting in thousands of volunteers, both
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 14: here in mid-Michigan and supporters around the country who are
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 14: ready for change. So thank you for having me on
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 14: and let's go get it done.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: Well, we will be watching. See you soon.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 10: Thank you, Griffin.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 6: We apologize for Griffin, Will.
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 14: Hey, this is the vocal stim in the office. Once
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 14: you hear it, you can't stop hearing it.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: That was a jam-packed Friday show. But, of course, it
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: would not be complete without some questions from the AMA audience.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: If you want to ask a question, of course, you
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: can sign up yourself at BreakingPoints.com to get a free
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: trial and submit written questions for Friday or interact with
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: our weekly live AMA. But first, let's start with an
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: accusation from Patrick Robles. Good morning, Friday crew. Could you
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: help me steel man the argument that breaking points is
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: actually an elaborate CIA sigh.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 6: Off?
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: Sagar and Emily, their college is an assembly line for
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: the deep state.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 6: Is this the question or is that you?
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 3: True fact.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: True fact.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 6: This is the MA question?
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 3: It's more Georgetown than GW, but fine.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 6: Well, Sager did his master's at Georgetown, so it's pretty bad.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 6: But yeah, no, I was a lowly political science creative
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 6: writing student. So that's a tough one.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: Now, this user also says the issue is with Ryan.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: I can't figure out where he fits into all this.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: But I think Ryan is another obvious one.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 7: Ryan is the king.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: The Forrest Gump of politics.
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: He's been in a bar with everyone.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 6: I think Ryan actually gets that accusation the most, too.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 6: Like if I'm reading comments, I feel like it's because
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 6: Ryan does so much reporting on the CIA, which inevitably,
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 6: if you do, people will call you CIA. It's a
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 6: total lose-lose situation.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 3: I guess the question would be what would the purpose
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: it would be to channel the righteous anger at the
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: system away from revolution toward electoralism which then gets dissipated
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 3: by the duopoly.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: That's right that's the leftist accusation And what's the Crystal
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: connection here?
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 6: I guess Crystal's from Northern Virginia.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah, what did he say about Crystal? How did he
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 3: explain that one?
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: Something about recruited for her swim team. I don't know.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: She is from Virginia, which is, you know, just saying
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 3: that's where the CIA is.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 6: Crystal trains the CIA attack dolphins. That's what I heard.
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 3: She blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. She didn't even
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 3: need the tank. She just held her breath and went
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: down there.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: I've I just think we're all simply too lazy to,
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: to also be moonlighting another thing.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: I think we're doing too many things.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 3: That is the thing.
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: Um, and, uh, but, but there.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: Are people in our industry that some of them, you know,
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: raise an eyebrow at where they get their connections. I mean, uh,
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: just look at the guest list for, for Joe Rogan.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: It's quite an interesting who's who of spies, former and current. Um,
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: it's incredible program over there.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: Uh, all right.
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: So this next one is an, Another accusation for us
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: from Haki. Zoran isn't smiling anymore. His wife isn't posing
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: with him anymore. The Hitler of our time insulted her.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: And what did he do? Not arrest him. He protected
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: Hakeem from Osei. Have you seen Hakeem's Zionist appointments? Zoran
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: still has Zio Jessica Tisch as NYC police commissioner. Why
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: is breaking points complicit in our silence?
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 7: Silence of what?
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 3: Wait, hold on. Start at the beginning of the question again.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: Essentially, there's an accusation from the left that Zoran has
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: capitulated to Zionists. You know, there was protests yesterday where
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: people are very upset. Maybe it was on October 7th.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: People were very upset. And they're saying that because we're
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: not covering that, we're complicit in our silence.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 6: Hassan said he supported the pressure campaign.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 3: Also, we've covered his decision to keep Tish on.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Fuller. I've asked him about it in my interview
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: with him.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they want us to cover the WOL protest on
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 3: October 7th. I don't know. I guess that was yesterday,
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 3: so that's on Sager and Emily.
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 10: No, Crystal.
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 6: Sager and Crystal.
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 3: Sager and Crystal, yeah. I mean, you're always going to have, like, whatever.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 7: Anyway.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: Well, let's open this up. What are your thoughts on this?
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: All these protesters protesting Zoran?
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: I personally, I kind of always eye roll when like
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: the entire topic of conversation on social media is what
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: like 20 protesters said, because you can find 20 crazy
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: people in any large group who are going to be
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: yelling and screaming stuff. And also like as New York mayor,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: you're you're supposed to get screamed at constantly it's actually
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: shocking that he's gone this far without being screamed.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 3: At yeah no yeah that's that's right i think yeah
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 3: i mean you're always going to have some people protesting
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 3: um you know i people are upset that he has
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 3: you know made too much i think of a rhetorical
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 3: emphasis around anti-semitism and when he rolled out his um
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 3: this new spending against like discrimination and hate around the city.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 3: He led with the fact that it was all going
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 3: towards like anti-Semitism.
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: When it had a broader scope.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 3: When it actually was a broader scope. And so then it,
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 3: and then, and then they, and then, you know, I
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 3: pointed out it's actually going everywhere, but I understand why
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 3: people think that he's kind of, there are a lot
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 3: of different communities in New York City and people are
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 3: under the impression that That's his primary concern at this point.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 3: While he gets criticized relentlessly by the pro-Israel crowd, but
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: a lot of the things that they're demanding of him
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 3: aren't really things within his control.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 6: By the way, there also has to be priorities. The
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 6: people who have much more control over awful Israeli policy
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 6: in Gaza and American policy there on a fundamental, important, immediate,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 6: urgent level. Are there things the mayor of New York
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 6: City can do? Yes, but he also has to be
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 6: the mayor of New York City. And so I don't know.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 6: This stuff doesn't bother me because I see it as
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 6: a part of the ecosystem. It doesn't bother me that
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 6: people are protesting, and it doesn't necessarily bother me that
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 6: the mayor of New York City would have different priorities
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 6: at this moment in his mayorality. Because it is all
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 6: a necessary part of the ecosystem. You're going to have
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 6: people who apply pressure regardless, and it's going to be
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 6: irrational and unreasonable because it's their job, basically, to be
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 6: activists on a particular issue. On the other side, he
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 6: has a job to do, too. And so it's just
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 6: a natural part of how things go. I do like...
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 6: if you're not a single issue person, um, or if
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 6: you're not, that's not like your particular cause, particular pet cause,
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 6: like on the right, we have different causes where you see, like,
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 6: there are a lot of anti-abortion people who do this
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 6: thing that will never, there's like, nothing is ever good enough.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 6: And it frustrates a lot of anti-abortion people because they'll
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 6: get protested no matter what they do. Um, but it's
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 6: a part of the ecosystem. Like it's some people's most
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 6: important issue. So let them say what they want to say.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 3: And it probably also helps them, um, because it makes
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 3: him look more kind of moderate to have, you know,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 3: left-wing protesters out yelling at him.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 6: I have a friend.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 3: So people are like, oh, I guess he's not that radical.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 6: I have a friend from home who texted me this
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 6: week being like, what's up with Zorah Mamdani? He seems
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 6: so normal and hot. And it was because I think
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 6: they saw him on TheoVon. So normal and hot.
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 3: He's good at being normal. It's a rare, rare skill
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 3: among leftists.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 7: So true. I agree with that.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: I guess the argument would be, yeah, he could probably
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: get rid of Jessica Tisch, but some larger NYPD reforms
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: would probably consume his entire morality.
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 3: I've laid out the case for why he didn't, is
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 3: my understanding. And also just think about the game theory here.
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 3: If you get rid of Jessica Tisch, and as expected,
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 3: the cops go on some kind of strike against you,
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 3: and crime goes up, People are going to blame you
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 3: for doing that. And your entire career is cooked. And
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 3: that has happened to many mayors who have fought with
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 3: the police.
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: It happened to de Blasio, right? Didn't they like quiet
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: quit or something?
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 3: So then if, however, you leave Tisch in place and
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 3: crime goes up, that's Tisch's fault. You get rid of Tisch.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 3: If you leave Tisch in place, crime stays the same
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 3: or goes down, then you can focus on the things
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 3: you care about, which is affordability. So just from a
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 3: game theory perspective, the smart politics there is to keep
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 3: Tish in place. Also, people are like, oh, she's tied.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 3: You lose all your political capital. Okay, what does the
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 3: New York Police Department really have to do with Israel?
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 3: Not that much. And then secondly, people need to have
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 3: a more material understanding of the relationship between the mayor
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 3: and police departments. And that's not just New York City,
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 3: but it's around the world. They are a powerful, independent,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 3: reactionary force. that represents, for the most part, the richest
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 3: power centers in the city. They're not under the thumb
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 3: of the mayor. They are a force. Now, you can
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 3: jockey with them in a political contest, but you can't
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 3: just dictate to them. People think you can just dictate
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 3: to the police. That's not the material world we live in.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: You're living in an idealistic world if you think that
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 3: that's the case. And if you operate from a place
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 3: of idealism and reality blows up in your face, then
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 3: the things that you ran on, you can't actually execute on.
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 7: This next one.
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: Comes from AJ Mira, and they say, referring to Emily here,
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: MJ is not a conservative. She is a Catholic socialist, parentheses,
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: which I can get behind. Change my mind. Okay, so
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: she's wrong on both counts.
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 6: My dad's Catholic. I've never been Catholic. My dad's family's
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 6: not Catholic, but nor am I a socialist. But I
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 6: don't really see much.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: Where do you think they're getting that from?
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 6: Well, because, like, for example, we just had Will on
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 6: and we've had Zoran on. We've had a lot of
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 6: democratic socialists on. Like, I'm very anti-unfettered capitalism. I think,
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 6: you know, markets are a tool for the good of
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 6: the country, the good of the community, the good of
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 6: the family.
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 5: And that means.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 6: they're not a good in and of themselves. A market
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 6: is not a virtue in and of itself, but it's
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 6: a tool for the good of the country, the family,
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 6: and the community. Anyway, all this to say, I'm very
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 6: with you guys on antitrust stuff. I think there's way
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 6: too much financialization. I think there's way too much concentration, monopolization.
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 6: I think most conservatives are way too supportive of unfettered
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 6: capitalism because if you're conservative, you should be skeptical of
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 6: concentrated power, whether it's in the government or in the
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 6: business community. And Anyway, all that is to say, like,
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 6: I don't see too much point in like grilling people
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 6: like Will Lawrence or, you know, a newly running Zoran
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 6: Mamdani on like the evils of the Soviet Union, which
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 6: I think a lot of people would want me to
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 6: do because I don't have a lot of arguments with
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 6: them on the fundamental underlying question of whether or not
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 6: the economy is broken, whether or not we're overly financialized,
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 6: whether or not power is too concentrated. Like that's We
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 6: actually that's part of why Sagar and I agree with
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 6: you guys on a lot of these like fundamental questions
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 6: right now. Our diet, our prescriptions are different, but our
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 6: diagnoses are similar.
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: So take that Catholic socialism.
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 3: And for the most part, yeah, all that matters is
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 3: a diagnosis. Like what you want to do is kind
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 3: of immaterial.
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 6: Especially for journalists. I'm not purporting to be a policy
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 6: wizard that's going to come in and have all of
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 6: the solutions. But when you're asking questions of candidates, if
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 6: we agree on the diagnosis, then anyway. Also, I'm a non-denominational.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 6: I'm as far from a Catholic as.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 3: You could possibly be.
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 7: Okay.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: And finally, this is from Nicholas Brannon. Hi for Sagar
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: and Griffin. Why do you think Sager would hate Diggers
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: with Tom Cruise? I feel like this movie is just anti-oil,
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: which Sager would argue that in a value-neutral world, nuclear
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: would come out on top. Also, the theme about how
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: we caricature politicians so we can accept the horrible choices
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: they caused.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: Have any of y'all seen Diggers yet?
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 7: Not yet.
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 3: I want to see it, though.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: I recommend seeing it.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: I'm saying that I am joining the war on Diggers
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: on the side of Diggers. I think it is a
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: movie that is a little exhausting.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: I'll say that.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: A little bizarre. Very meta. But I haven't stopped thinking
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: about it. And it is two hours of Tom Cruise.
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 2: Without spoiling anything, I do think it is the filmmaker
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: is critiquing other people that make movies about climate change,
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: sort of Hollywood elites that make movies about climate change
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: and then pat themselves on the back for that. And
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: there's a sort of critique of if any of that
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: is moving the needle at all, while the oligarchs have
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: already destroyed the world around us and we're just there
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: making art about it. I disagree with that take. And
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: I think that art is an important element. tip of
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: the spear and changing people's minds so I did find
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: the movie to be quite nihilistic and elitist on its
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: in its own self uh sort of elitist an elitist
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: critique of elites um because I don't I do believe
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: that art is more valuable uh than I think the
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: movie is implying but it's two hours of Tom Cruise
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: go check it out in the movies it's it's it's
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: a gorgeous film it's quite exhausting it's something That's my recommendation.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 6: That was a hell of a recommendation.
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: And that will do it for us this Friday, October 9th.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: Midterms are coming up. We're gearing up for quite a
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: very big month of all sorts of October surprises. Of course,
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: BreakingPoints.com if you want to see it all. ad-free in
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: addition to engaging with our AMAs and other extra stuff
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: we do along the way. Anything else that we want
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: to plug on our way out, folks?
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 7: No, sir. All right.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for us. And we'll see you on Monday.
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 7: Bye-bye.