Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / New Netflix PM Doc Sparks MAJOR Controversy

Transcript

New Netflix PM Doc Sparks MAJOR Controversy · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  We've got a new documentary coming out from Netflix.
• 0:05
  I've seen it.
• 0:05
  Uh,
• 0:06
  I wanna give you the thoughts on it.
• 0:06
  It's a little controversial,
• 0:07
  but
• 0:08
  Uh,
• 0:09
  I'll give you the,
• 0:10
  the,
• 0:10
  what you need to know about it and whether it's worth watching or not.
• 0:12
  We have Tallarico versus Paxton in Texas,
• 0:16
  some new polling there.
• 0:17
  I wanna get to.
• 0:18
  A new episode of Stranger Trades where we look at the weird stuff going on
• 0:22
  in prediction markets.
• 0:23
  We'll get to that as well.
• 0:25
  Don't forget to join us.
• 0:25
  We have a great community
• 0:27
  at
• 0:27
  uh predictableshow.com.
• 0:29
  If you go there,
• 0:30
  you can get signed up.
• 0:31
  It's free.
• 0:32
  You get all the information that you need for.
• 0:33
  Free,
• 0:33
  get the show,
• 0:34
  get lots of articles and information about prediction
• 0:36
  markets and the elections and everything going on.
• 0:38
  And then there's a,
• 0:39
  a paid tier as well where you can join
• 0:41
  and we'll give you,
• 0:42
  uh,
• 0:42
  you know,
• 0:42
  lots of,
• 0:43
  uh,
• 0:43
  you know,
• 0:43
  all my picks and,
• 0:45
  and all that stuff which if you happen to be a trader,
• 0:47
  I think is very much worth your time.
• 0:49
  We've got a live sub stack of the show that will go out every day as well.
• 0:52
  It's a really cool community and,
• 0:54
  uh,
• 0:54
  I think something you will enjoy at predictableshow.com.
• 0:57
  Let's get going.
• 1:12
  You know,
• 1:13
  when I started working in prediction markets in I think 2014 was the first time I ever
• 1:19
  got involved at all in prediction markets.
• 1:22
  Nobody wanted to talk about them.
• 1:23
  No one cared about them.
• 1:25
  Uh,
• 1:25
  they were not interesting to people,
• 1:27
  to human beings.
• 1:28
  I would try to talk to my friends about them and they,
• 1:31
  they thought I was a loser,
• 1:32
  and they still think I'm a loser,
• 1:34
  but for totally different reasons.
• 1:35
  Now,
• 1:35
  why?
• 1:36
  Because prediction markets are everywhere,
• 1:38
  right?
• 1:38
  Everyone's talking about them all the time.
• 1:40
  In fact,
• 1:40
  there's a new Netflix documentary even out about them,
• 1:43
  uh,
• 1:44
  called The Prediction Games.
• 1:45
  It is out on Netflix now.
• 1:46
  It's the,
• 1:47
  I think it's number 9
• 1:48
  on,
• 1:48
  uh,
• 1:49
  the,
• 1:49
  uh,
• 1:49
  on prediction on,
• 1:50
  uh,
• 1:51
  uh,
• 1:51
  Netflix TV
• 1:53
  right now.
• 1:53
  Uh,
• 1:54
  and,
• 1:54
  you know,
• 1:55
  look,
• 1:55
  that is not something that I think we would have seen back in 2014,
• 1:58
  most certainly.
• 1:59
  Uh,
• 1:59
  there has been a massive rise of prediction markets,
• 2:01
  and people are very interested in them.
• 2:03
  They wanna see
• 2:04
  how they work.
• 2:05
  They wanna see,
• 2:06
  uh,
• 2:06
  whether they can profit off of prediction markets,
• 2:09
  whether their opinions are worth,
• 2:12
  uh,
• 2:12
  you know,
• 2:12
  the,
• 2:13
  the,
• 2:13
  the,
• 2:13
  the paper they're written on,
• 2:15
  right?
• 2:16
  Um,
• 2:16
  and that is a,
• 2:17
  a pretty normal instinct,
• 2:18
  right?
• 2:19
  We,
• 2:19
  as human beings kind of wanna know whether what we think is right,
• 2:23
  and a lot of times we think that it is.
• 2:25
  One of the things that they talk about in this documentary is exactly that.
• 2:29
  What prediction markets do
• 2:31
  is put you in a position where you're not just running your mouth,
• 2:34
  you actually are putting your money where your mouth is.
• 2:37
  And when you do that,
• 2:38
  you need to make sure your beliefs about the future
• 2:41
  are a little more grounded in reality,
• 2:43
  because if you're just kind of whimsically out there
• 2:46
  with your wrong opinions,
• 2:47
  uh,
• 2:48
  you are going to lose money.
• 2:50
  And I will say,
• 2:52
  I think it's one of the things we do here at Predictable,
• 2:54
  a public service to the world.
• 2:57
  We help
• 2:59
  refine
• 3:01
  what people believe about the future.
• 3:03
  We do it on a day to day basis.
• 3:05
  Some people think,
• 3:06
  oh,
• 3:06
  this candidate's gonna win,
• 3:07
  and we say,
• 3:08
  I got news for you.
• 3:08
  Yeah,
• 3:09
  he's got a lot of retweets.
• 3:10
  He's not gonna win.
• 3:12
  And we come in there and we say,
• 3:13
  you know what we're gonna do,
• 3:13
  we're gonna put our money where our mouth is on that.
• 3:16
  And we're going to show you,
• 3:18
  uh,
• 3:18
  what,
• 3:19
  what we believe,
• 3:20
  and we're gonna put our money on the line to show if that's right or wrong.
• 3:23
  And,
• 3:23
  and if we're wrong,
• 3:25
  we're gonna get slapped in the face.
• 3:26
  That's one of the great things I think about prediction markets,
• 3:28
  and I really do think it's a public service.
• 3:30
  People believe all sorts of crazy crap right now.
• 3:33
  They believe all sorts of crazy crap,
• 3:35
  and they just say it as if it's fact all the time.
• 3:37
  And you know what,
• 3:39
  if they're right,
• 3:40
  great,
• 3:41
  then they win.
• 3:42
  But if we're right,
• 3:44
  then we win.
• 3:44
  And guess what?
• 3:45
  We've been right
• 3:46
  many more times than we have been wrong so far
• 3:49
  as we've been building this community behind the scenes.
• 3:51
  Um,
• 3:51
  I mentioned the paid tier that we have now,
• 3:53
  which is,
• 3:53
  you know,
• 3:54
  growing really,
• 3:54
  really quickly.
• 3:55
  We're the number 4,
• 3:57
  sub-stack in the business category right now,
• 3:59
  uh,
• 4:00
  in the,
• 4:00
  in their rising charts.
• 4:02
  And the reason for that is because people look at prediction markets and say,
• 4:05
  I,
• 4:05
  I,
• 4:05
  I,
• 4:05
  I wanna learn about them.
• 4:07
  I wanna get involved and I'd,
• 4:08
  I,
• 4:08
  if,
• 4:08
  if possible,
• 4:09
  I'd like to not lose,
• 4:11
  right?
• 4:11
  And so we've been able to do that for a while.
• 4:13
  If,
• 4:13
  if you could join us there,
• 4:14
  it would be great.
• 4:15
  We'd love to have you.
• 4:16
  This documentary,
• 4:18
  it was interesting the way that it was promoted.
• 4:19
  Let me give you kind of the story from the beginning.
• 4:21
  A new Insta doc uh dives into the booming
• 4:23
  bet on anything world
• 4:25
  of prediction markets.
• 4:26
  I have strong feelings as to whether bet is the appropriate word there,
• 4:29
  but we will
• 4:30
  get into that maybe at a later time.
• 4:32
  Let me give you a click,
• 4:32
  a quick clip about what this looks like.
• 4:35
  Uh,
• 4:36
  this is the documentary,
• 4:37
  and this is kind of sort of how it was promoted to everybody
• 4:40
  before it came out,
• 4:41
  which caused a lot of controversy,
• 4:43
  including legal proceedings.
• 4:44
  Let me show you the clip.
• 4:52
  Today we're watching Argentina and Spain in the World Cup final.
• 4:55
  We're in Las Vegas,
• 4:56
  Nevada at the Mirage Mega Mansion.
• 5:00
  The guys in this house
• 5:01
  have made millions of dollars
• 5:03
  on prediction markets,
• 5:05
  probably 8 figures just over the course of the World Cup.
• 5:08
  I like betting on Caly,
• 5:10
  training on poly market.
• 5:11
  I put $5000
• 5:13
  on
• 5:14
  Spain to win the whole thing.
• 5:18
  If Argentina wins,
• 5:19
  I'll be on $30,000.
• 5:20
  Like when you wake up,
• 5:21
  you gotta put on your lucky underwear,
• 5:23
  eat like a good luck meal,
• 5:26
  listen to your favorite song,
• 5:27
  take a deep breath,
• 5:28
  say a prayer.
• 5:30
  I think prediction markers are low key taking over the world.
• 5:38
  That's kind of,
• 5:39
  I don't know what kind of got used as the trailer.
• 5:41
  It's,
• 5:41
  it's the beginning of the documentary,
• 5:42
  a couple of minutes.
• 5:44
  And what you see there,
• 5:44
  what was interesting initially was the reaction
• 5:46
  from sort of the prediction market community,
• 5:48
  which,
• 5:49
  if you will,
• 5:50
  which is there's a lot of people that you know.
• 5:52
  We talked to Scottylicious yesterday,
• 5:54
  uh,
• 5:55
  who is a guy,
• 5:56
  uh,
• 5:56
  well known in the trading community,
• 5:58
  made a couple of million dollars on,
• 6:00
  uh,
• 6:01
  prediction markets.
• 6:02
  He's really well known.
• 6:03
  When,
• 6:03
  when you,
• 6:04
  if you were to say that name,
• 6:04
  if you were to put him in that documentary,
• 6:06
  people would be like,
• 6:07
  oh,
• 6:07
  I know who that guy is.
• 6:08
  What the first reaction was really uh
• 6:10
  from the prediction market community was like,
• 6:12
  who are these guys?
• 6:13
  Like they're being this,
• 6:14
  they're the center of a Netflix documentary where they're gonna show them
• 6:17
  on the World Cup.
• 6:17
  Who are these guys?
• 6:18
  It turns out,
• 6:19
  and they kind of revealed this in in the um
• 6:22
  in the documentary.
• 6:24
  That they are quite a part of a big,
• 6:25
  um,
• 6:26
  sports betting community,
• 6:27
  uh,
• 6:28
  but really not central to prediction markets.
• 6:30
  Like they,
• 6:31
  you know,
• 6:31
  they're,
• 6:31
  they're in Vegas.
• 6:32
  One of the big issues here in Calci was very
• 6:34
  upset about this because of the way that it was
• 6:36
  promoted.
• 6:37
  A guy said,
• 6:37
  oh,
• 6:37
  I,
• 6:38
  you know,
• 6:38
  I bet on Calhi,
• 6:39
  you know,
• 6:40
  in the World Cup,
• 6:41
  and he's in Nevada.
• 6:43
  Calci is,
• 6:44
  you know,
• 6:44
  of the prediction markets is
• 6:46
  The one that kind of started regulation first,
• 6:48
  like they went through the government,
• 6:49
  all those processes.
• 6:51
  They say even in the documentary,
• 6:52
  they had 4 years of regulation
• 6:54
  before they really could even release their main product,
• 6:57
  um,
• 6:57
  because of all the pushback legally
• 7:00
  that they were receiving initially,
• 7:02
  they wound up winning and that's why kind of these things are everywhere.
• 7:05
  Um,
• 7:05
  Kyle,
• 7:05
  she accuses Netflix of misleading viewers in a new prediction market documentary.
• 7:11
  And they said they were,
• 7:12
  uh,
• 7:12
  they had a cease and desist letter
• 7:14
  to Netflix that they sent a couple of days before this came out.
• 7:17
  And
• 7:18
  based on that clip,
• 7:19
  you could kind of
• 7:20
  understand why.
• 7:21
  Because
• 7:22
  it's being promoted as this sort of crazy,
• 7:25
  uh,
• 7:25
  you know,
• 7:25
  everyone's just online with $50,000 on a,
• 7:28
  uh,
• 7:28
  on a soccer match
• 7:30
  in Nevada,
• 7:31
  which it's not,
• 7:32
  you know,
• 7:32
  they're gonna lose this lawsuit in Nevada,
• 7:34
  but as of right now,
• 7:35
  Calci has paused operations there because Nevada's tried to say,
• 7:38
  well,
• 7:39
  we're gonna,
• 7:39
  we're gonna ban
• 7:40
  prediction markets
• 7:41
  in this state.
• 7:43
  Now,
• 7:44
  Just a,
• 7:44
  uh,
• 7:45
  a,
• 7:45
  a,
• 7:45
  a quick step aside here,
• 7:47
  uh,
• 7:47
  if I may do a sidebar,
• 7:48
  Your Honor.
• 7:50
  How ridiculous is it?
• 7:52
  How pathetic is it that Nevada of all freaking states
• 7:57
  would be like,
• 7:57
  oh gosh,
• 7:58
  we think it's irresponsible for people to go on prediction markets.
• 8:01
  Do you?
• 8:02
  Do you,
• 8:03
  uh,
• 8:03
  home of the bunny Ranch?
• 8:05
  Do you,
• 8:06
  do you,
• 8:07
  uh,
• 8:07
  home of every casino.
• 8:08
  Look,
• 8:09
  I have no problem with,
• 8:10
  with gambling.
• 8:11
  I like going to casinos.
• 8:12
  I enjoy spending a few bucks there,
• 8:14
  usually losing.
• 8:16
  Uh,
• 8:16
  I don't enjoy bunny ranches.
• 8:17
  I don't,
• 8:18
  never attended one.
• 8:20
  I mean,
• 8:20
  there's a couple of times,
• 8:21
  but,
• 8:21
  no,
• 8:21
  no,
• 8:21
  I'm not kidding.
• 8:22
  Uh,
• 8:22
  it's not my thing,
• 8:23
  right?
• 8:24
  I,
• 8:24
  some of Vegas I like.
• 8:26
  I will say,
• 8:27
  Vegas is fun.
• 8:28
  Uh,
• 8:28
  Nevada's a,
• 8:29
  a,
• 8:29
  a cool state.
• 8:30
  They have a lot of great people who live there,
• 8:31
  but let's be honest about it for a second.
• 8:33
  There's no,
• 8:34
  there's no,
• 8:35
  uh,
• 8:35
  holier than thou coming from,
• 8:37
  uh,
• 8:37
  the freaking state of Nevada when it comes to gambling.
• 8:40
  This is,
• 8:41
  of course,
• 8:42
  instead to protect entrenched interests in Nevada,
• 8:46
  who want to,
• 8:48
  don't like the fact
• 8:49
  that
• 8:50
  people on Calci,
• 8:51
  people on Polymarket were getting better prices,
• 8:54
  we're having a better experience,
• 8:56
  uh,
• 8:57
  than going to,
• 8:58
  uh,
• 8:58
  their sports books.
• 8:59
  And,
• 9:00
  you know,
• 9:00
  look,
• 9:00
  there is some crossover,
• 9:01
  of course,
• 9:02
  you can
• 9:03
  buy an event contract,
• 9:04
  uh,
• 9:04
  when it comes to uh sporting events.
• 9:06
  I,
• 9:06
  I,
• 9:07
  you know,
• 9:07
  I do it myself from time to time.
• 9:09
  Uh,
• 9:09
  it's not,
• 9:10
  not the central reason I'm interested in prediction markets,
• 9:12
  honestly.
• 9:13
  Uh,
• 9:13
  I understand why some people really do like it.
• 9:15
  And,
• 9:15
  you know,
• 9:16
  for people who look at that as the exact same,
• 9:18
  we don't.
• 9:19
  But if you happen to be someone who looks at,
• 9:20
  oh gosh,
• 9:21
  that's gambling and that's gambling,
• 9:22
  well,
• 9:22
  you know,
• 9:22
  calcium and polymarket give you a much better experience,
• 9:25
  right?
• 9:25
  You don't have to deal with a house.
• 9:26
  You're not gonna get limited if you're good at it.
• 9:29
  You know,
• 9:30
  like,
• 9:31
  it was a lot of these,
• 9:32
  uh,
• 9:32
  not everyone's the same,
• 9:33
  uh,
• 9:34
  but some of these,
• 9:35
  uh,
• 9:35
  gambling places will say like,
• 9:36
  oh gosh,
• 9:37
  well this person keeps winning,
• 9:38
  let's let them only
• 9:39
  bet $50 on a game.
• 9:41
  Calcium polymer,
• 9:42
  you can go in there if you're smart and,
• 9:43
  and,
• 9:43
  and you can get that information and you can,
• 9:47
  whatever,
• 9:47
  distill that information into a,
• 9:49
  a,
• 9:49
  a,
• 9:49
  a,
• 9:49
  a position with an edge,
• 9:50
  you're gonna wind up being
• 9:52
  on the right side of things.
• 9:53
  That is,
• 9:53
  uh,
• 9:54
  that's the type of thing that happens,
• 9:55
  uh,
• 9:56
  and you do,
• 9:56
  you're not gonna get limited
• 9:58
  at calcium or polymarkets.
• 9:59
  So,
• 10:00
  or any of the other prediction markets for that matter,
• 10:02
  you know,
• 10:02
  this is a
• 10:03
  Uh,
• 10:03
  a commodities futures trading,
• 10:05
  uh,
• 10:06
  uh,
• 10:06
  index.
• 10:07
  It's a,
• 10:07
  it's a,
• 10:08
  it's a network of people trading with each other.
• 10:10
  And so that's why this is,
• 10:11
  there's an advantage there.
• 10:12
  So,
• 10:13
  I understand why
• 10:14
  there's a sexiness to
• 10:16
  Vegas,
• 10:17
  parties,
• 10:17
  gambling,
• 10:18
  uh,
• 10:18
  you know,
• 10:18
  all of that,
• 10:19
  and I understand why they might have led with that.
• 10:21
  The documentary itself though,
• 10:22
  really didn't spend much time.
• 10:23
  What you saw there
• 10:25
  was the vast majority of the time you spent with these guys in Vegas,
• 10:29
  uh,
• 10:30
  who were betting on the World Cup,
• 10:31
  in their words.
• 10:33
  Um,
• 10:34
  I,
• 10:35
  I don't know why they promoted it that way other than it was just good footage,
• 10:38
  right?
• 10:38
  Uh,
• 10:39
  that's kind of how they did it.
• 10:40
  What,
• 10:40
  what they got into there,
• 10:41
  it's about a 40-minute documentary,
• 10:43
  and I would say just something,
• 10:44
  you know,
• 10:44
  a spoiler alert,
• 10:45
  it's,
• 10:45
  I think it's worth your time,
• 10:47
  uh,
• 10:47
  you know,
• 10:47
  to spoil,
• 10:48
  spoil my own review here.
• 10:50
  I think it's worth your time.
• 10:51
  If you're interested in prediction markets,
• 10:52
  wanna learn a little bit about it.
• 10:53
  Um,
• 10:54
  I don't feel
• 10:55
  like it was a,
• 10:57
  a,
• 10:58
  a complete hatchet job on prediction markets,
• 11:00
  which most of these things are.
• 11:02
  There were definitely times where they took
• 11:04
  positions that I think were questionable.
• 11:06
  There were definitely times,
• 11:08
  uh,
• 11:08
  where did we go,
• 11:09
  uh,
• 11:09
  where,
• 11:10
  you know,
• 11:11
  they,
• 11:12
  uh,
• 11:13
  they've
• 11:14
  aired views about prediction markets that I
• 11:16
  didn't think were necessarily added to it,
• 11:17
  but they covered the main points.
• 11:19
  And it was well produced and they had a great list of guests.
• 11:22
  Uh,
• 11:22
  they had,
• 11:23
  uh,
• 11:23
  the author of The Wisdom of Crowds,
• 11:25
  which
• 11:26
  is sort of looked back at as sort of beginning of mainstream prediction markets.
• 11:31
  They did have prediction markets before that.
• 11:32
  There was a,
• 11:33
  a big story about,
• 11:34
  uh,
• 11:34
  DARPA.
• 11:34
  They actually talked about this.
• 11:35
  I've talked about it on the air here,
• 11:36
  but they also talked about it in the documentary where
• 11:38
  the military was like,
• 11:39
  hey,
• 11:39
  how can we,
• 11:40
  you know,
• 11:40
  how can we figure out what,
• 11:41
  what threats are coming our way?
• 11:43
  Uh,
• 11:44
  a prediction market would be a good way of doing that.
• 11:45
  They had one in Iowa before that.
• 11:47
  Uh,
• 11:48
  that was mainly about politics,
• 11:50
  but generally speaking,
• 11:50
  the sort of start of the mainstreaming of prediction markets
• 11:54
  is thought to be this book Wisdom of Crowds,
• 11:56
  which talked about how the wisdom of crowds is often
• 11:58
  smarter than the smartest expert,
• 12:00
  right?
• 12:01
  Um,
• 12:02
  and prediction markets have a great way of distilling that
• 12:04
  information into a way into something that people can understand,
• 12:07
  benefit from,
• 12:08
  hedge against their,
• 12:09
  you know,
• 12:09
  with their business interests,
• 12:10
  whatever the,
• 12:11
  the end of that story is.
• 12:12
  So he was in there.
• 12:13
  uh,
• 12:14
  Tarek Mansur from,
• 12:15
  uh,
• 12:15
  he's the CEO of Calci,
• 12:16
  he was in the documentary.
• 12:18
  Shane Copland,
• 12:19
  uh,
• 12:19
  the,
• 12:19
  uh,
• 12:19
  CEO of Poly Market,
• 12:21
  was in the documentary,
• 12:22
  and again they weren't.
• 12:24
  Uh,
• 12:25
  set up as the ultimate villains,
• 12:27
  I didn't think.
• 12:28
  You know,
• 12:29
  uh,
• 12:29
  uh,
• 12:29
  you know,
• 12:29
  uh,
• 12:30
  Turk Mansour had a really,
• 12:31
  uh,
• 12:32
  great point about,
• 12:33
  uh,
• 12:33
  how these,
• 12:34
  uh,
• 12:35
  how the Biden,
• 12:36
  uh,
• 12:37
  it was actually Shane Copland,
• 12:37
  I think,
• 12:38
  talked about the Biden debate.
• 12:39
  Um,
• 12:40
  Turk Mansour had a great point as well in,
• 12:42
  in this,
• 12:42
  in this general vicinity talking about how prediction markets just do a better job,
• 12:46
  uh,
• 12:46
  at getting this information to people.
• 12:48
  Um,
• 12:48
  and it is,
• 12:49
  you know,
• 12:50
  you don't think of it this way when you're on
• 12:51
  prediction markets and you're putting a position down on a,
• 12:54
  on an election.
• 12:55
  You are helping.
• 12:56
  The rest of the country understand this election better.
• 13:00
  You are participating in a process
• 13:02
  that delivers information,
• 13:03
  by the way,
• 13:04
  for completely for free to everybody else,
• 13:07
  that,
• 13:07
  uh,
• 13:07
  a,
• 13:07
  a better way of distilling information than ever before.
• 13:10
  When
• 13:11
  Biden,
• 13:12
  I mean,
• 13:12
  I saw it,
• 13:13
  I was here.
• 13:13
  I was in
• 13:14
  the next,
• 13:15
  uh,
• 13:15
  I was actually in this studio right over here,
• 13:17
  I think it was,
• 13:17
  or no,
• 13:18
  it was that one actually.
• 13:19
  And then we were in the studio and we were
• 13:20
  covering this election and I'm sitting around this table.
• 13:22
  I was hosting the debate coverage.
• 13:24
  We got a great panel around us from Blaze TV
• 13:27
  and we're sitting here and we're watching this election or this debate go down.
• 13:31
  And,
• 13:31
  you know,
• 13:32
  Donald Trump comes out
• 13:33
  and then
• 13:34
  Joe Biden walks out
• 13:36
  to that mic.
• 13:37
  And as he's walking out to the mic,
• 13:38
  I'm looking,
• 13:39
  I'm watching this and I'm like,
• 13:40
  what the hell is going on?
• 13:41
  What is wrong with this guy?
• 13:42
  You could tell from the minute he walked out on stage
• 13:46
  that something was really,
• 13:47
  really
• 13:48
  wrong.
• 13:49
  And I,
• 13:50
  if I'm not mistaken,
• 13:51
  I have to look back at my trading records exactly,
• 13:52
  but I,
• 13:53
  I remember in the middle of that debate,
• 13:54
  picking up that phone and picking up one of the apps and be like,
• 13:56
  oh my gosh,
• 13:57
  it's time.
• 13:57
  I gotta start clicking around here because
• 13:59
  something's wrong with this guy.
• 14:01
  Something is wrong
• 14:02
  with Joe Biden.
• 14:03
  He went into those moments and he stuttered and he stammered and
• 14:06
  he looked like he hadn't had a coherent thought in 15 years,
• 14:09
  and,
• 14:11
  After the,
• 14:11
  uh,
• 14:12
  the debate ended,
• 14:13
  you had people going on television,
• 14:15
  you know,
• 14:16
  mostly Democrats saying,
• 14:17
  well,
• 14:18
  you know,
• 14:18
  I mean,
• 14:18
  look,
• 14:19
  he was just,
• 14:20
  look,
• 14:20
  Donald Trump was lying a lot,
• 14:21
  and no one's noticing that.
• 14:23
  Where are people saying that?
• 14:24
  I think,
• 14:24
  you know,
• 14:24
  I think Joe Biden held his own.
• 14:26
  Sure,
• 14:26
  he stumbled a little bit here and there.
• 14:28
  Jill Biden is out there
• 14:30
  debating,
• 14:30
  uh,
• 14:31
  backing him.
• 14:32
  I remember watching Kamala Harris with Anderson Cooper that night.
• 14:35
  You know,
• 14:35
  I think Joe did an excellent job.
• 14:36
  He,
• 14:36
  you know,
• 14:37
  he had a couple of moments,
• 14:38
  you know,
• 14:38
  everyone has those moments.
• 14:40
  Uh,
• 14:40
  but I think Joe,
• 14:41
  generally speaking,
• 14:41
  he had the,
• 14:42
  much better arguments and blah blah,
• 14:43
  blah blah blah blah,
• 14:44
  and we heard this nonsense.
• 14:47
  It everyone knew it was nonsense.
• 14:50
  And we were told by the media,
• 14:52
  by that campaign,
• 14:53
  that everything was fine,
• 14:55
  by his wife,
• 14:56
  that everything was fine,
• 14:57
  even though we now know in her own book,
• 14:59
  she knew it wasn't fine.
• 15:01
  They were lying to you over and over and over and over again.
• 15:05
  You know who told you the truth?
• 15:07
  The prediction markets.
• 15:09
  There was no polling.
• 15:11
  There was nothing else,
• 15:11
  you,
• 15:12
  you could look and read Twitter and and whatever side you
• 15:15
  were on probably had a great reaction to benefit your side.
• 15:19
  But you know who didn't care about that at all?
• 15:21
  Calci,
• 15:21
  Polymarket.
• 15:23
  They predict it.
• 15:25
  Those people were like,
• 15:26
  whoa,
• 15:26
  holy crap,
• 15:27
  did you just see that?
• 15:28
  Because that was the truth.
• 15:30
  And there was a benefit
• 15:32
  to the truth coming
• 15:33
  to the people
• 15:34
  faster
• 15:35
  than the media would provide it,
• 15:36
  and that uh campaigns would provide it.
• 15:39
  This is a,
• 15:40
  was a massive public service in that moment,
• 15:43
  and we saw the benefits of that as we went forward.
• 15:45
  We understood the world a lot better,
• 15:47
  a lot faster.
• 15:48
  And so,
• 15:49
  that is,
• 15:49
  of course,
• 15:49
  the utility to the public
• 15:51
  that these things bring.
• 15:52
  They really,
• 15:53
  this is a real thing,
• 15:54
  it really does happen,
• 15:55
  it really does get you that information faster than a poll,
• 15:57
  faster than anything else.
• 15:58
  The only thing that can honestly beat it is your own eyeballs,
• 16:01
  and your own brain.
• 16:03
  And if you were on prediction markets,
• 16:04
  you can potentially profit from that,
• 16:07
  right?
• 16:07
  Um,
• 16:08
  but we all knew what was happening in that moment.
• 16:11
  We all,
• 16:11
  I mean,
• 16:11
  I said it on the air that night,
• 16:13
  this is over.
• 16:14
  How can he recover from that?
• 16:17
  That was the worst performance in a debate I've ever seen.
• 16:21
  You think,
• 16:22
  you,
• 16:22
  you,
• 16:22
  you think that Nixon was bad?
• 16:24
  Come on.
• 16:24
  And this was a catastrophe.
• 16:26
  And of course,
• 16:26
  it played out in a catastrophic way for his campaign.
• 16:29
  I'd argue a good way for the country,
• 16:31
  but that's a whole another story.
• 16:33
  Uh,
• 16:33
  they also had,
• 16:34
  uh,
• 16:34
  you know,
• 16:34
  some
• 16:35
  prominent critics.
• 16:35
  They had Michael Selig from the CFTC who we've talked to on this program before,
• 16:38
  the head of the CFTC,
• 16:40
  uh,
• 16:40
  top trader,
• 16:41
  Caleb,
• 16:41
  uh,
• 16:42
  Davies,
• 16:42
  who's,
• 16:42
  uh,
• 16:42
  who was in there.
• 16:43
  So it was,
• 16:43
  they had a great,
• 16:45
  uh,
• 16:46
  roster of guests in this documentary.
• 16:48
  Um,
• 16:48
  and
• 16:49
  they go through a few of the big things that,
• 16:52
  that people talk about often.
• 16:54
  You know,
• 16:54
  you have the,
• 16:55
  the 19 year old guy who's eating pizza on his couch,
• 16:58
  who lost $1000.
• 17:00
  And,
• 17:00
  you know,
• 17:01
  uh,
• 17:01
  you look at that and you say,
• 17:02
  OK,
• 17:02
  well,
• 17:03
  that's not a great outcome.
• 17:04
  You don't necessarily want people to do that.
• 17:05
  I would say they were trying to paint him to kind of
• 17:08
  be
• 17:08
  kind of an idiot.
• 17:09
  I don't know that he is an idiot.
• 17:10
  Um,
• 17:11
  I will say that the bigger idiot was the,
• 17:13
  uh,
• 17:13
  roommate that after he lost the $1000
• 17:16
  allowed him to borrow another $1100 from him
• 17:19
  that
• 17:19
  they didn't feature him.
• 17:20
  He didn't want to be on camera
• 17:21
  after that decision.
• 17:22
  Uh,
• 17:23
  but,
• 17:23
  you know,
• 17:23
  look,
• 17:24
  there are of course going to be people who lose money on prediction markets.
• 17:28
  Um,
• 17:28
  that does happen.
• 17:30
  I don't want you to be one of them,
• 17:31
  which is one of the reasons this company exists.
• 17:33
  Uh,
• 17:33
  we do this show on a day to day basis.
• 17:35
  We have the PredictableShow.com site because we want
• 17:39
  people to be able to look at this,
• 17:40
  not as some risky thing as they're throwing around money and taking crazy,
• 17:44
  uh,
• 17:44
  shots at stuff,
• 17:45
  but a way to actually,
• 17:46
  uh,
• 17:47
  profit off the knowledge that you have,
• 17:49
  right?
• 17:49
  The understanding that you have.
• 17:50
  You've probably,
• 17:51
  if you're like me,
• 17:52
  have built a very,
• 17:53
  very long,
• 17:54
  detailed
• 17:56
  understanding.
• 17:57
  Of,
• 17:58
  let's say,
• 17:58
  politics.
• 17:59
  And you know how people react and you've seen these
• 18:02
  senators do these annoying things time after time after time.
• 18:06
  And you,
• 18:06
  you could say while the,
• 18:08
  uh,
• 18:09
  government and the news and,
• 18:10
  and everybody else is telling you that,
• 18:11
  uh,
• 18:12
  you know,
• 18:13
  uh,
• 18:13
  endgame A is gonna play out when you know it's endgame B.
• 18:18
  You're able to not only
• 18:20
  Uh,
• 18:21
  profit off of that,
• 18:22
  but more importantly,
• 18:23
  dissolve the nonsensical crap that comes out of the media on a day to day basis.
• 18:28
  They,
• 18:29
  the internet did this pretty well,
• 18:31
  where they were able to take on the,
• 18:33
  the three networks and present a,
• 18:35
  a much more realistic,
• 18:36
  uh,
• 18:37
  version of the world to the American people,
• 18:40
  or at least cut through the lies that were coming through the mainstream media.
• 18:43
  And,
• 18:44
  you know,
• 18:44
  the,
• 18:45
  you know,
• 18:45
  that does happen still.
• 18:47
  Um,
• 18:47
  it's not perfect,
• 18:48
  it's not a perfect system.
• 18:50
  This just improves that system.
• 18:51
  Prediction markets are able to cut through that like nothing else.
• 18:54
  They did do the dark side,
• 18:55
  and this is,
• 18:56
  I,
• 18:56
  I actually,
• 18:57
  I didn't realize this at the time,
• 18:59
  but this is something I mentioned to Scottylicious as I was talking to him,
• 19:03
  a top trader on Polymarket just yesterday.
• 19:06
  You know,
• 19:06
  here's the three questions I'm like legally required to ask you.
• 19:10
  Uh,
• 19:10
  go back and watch that interview.
• 19:11
  I think you'll really,
• 19:11
  really like it.
• 19:12
  The great insight from him.
• 19:14
  But
• 19:15
  every prediction
• 19:16
  market piece of media has to have these three questions addressed.
• 19:19
  Well,
• 19:20
  wait,
• 19:20
  wait a minute,
• 19:20
  uh,
• 19:21
  you know,
• 19:21
  uh,
• 19:22
  is it,
• 19:22
  what about insider trading?
• 19:24
  Insider trading is a bit of a complicated issue.
• 19:26
  They go to it,
• 19:26
  in,
• 19:27
  in here.
• 19:27
  People,
• 19:28
  uh,
• 19:28
  there are really
• 19:30
  big examples of this.
• 19:31
  The one,
• 19:31
  the worst example that I can come up with
• 19:32
  is the one about Venezuela where someone inside the military
• 19:36
  was,
• 19:36
  um,
• 19:37
  uh,
• 19:37
  trying to make money off of the potential removal of Nicolas Maduro.
• 19:41
  Um,
• 19:42
  that,
• 19:42
  of course,
• 19:43
  uh,
• 19:43
  could have cost lives,
• 19:45
  right?
• 19:45
  If you're moving a market and giving that information early,
• 19:47
  which is what prediction markets do,
• 19:50
  uh,
• 19:50
  it could have cost,
• 19:51
  uh,
• 19:52
  American military lives.
• 19:53
  So,
• 19:53
  really,
• 19:54
  really bad.
• 19:54
  Obviously he's been arrested for this,
• 19:56
  even though that those trades happened on an overseas exchange.
• 19:59
  He was still arrested for this,
• 20:01
  and rightly so.
• 20:02
  Uh,
• 20:02
  there's also,
• 20:03
  uh,
• 20:03
  you know,
• 20:04
  examples of insider trading on less important information or less,
• 20:07
  uh,
• 20:08
  urgent information,
• 20:09
  less inform
• 20:10
  information that doesn't put lives at risk.
• 20:12
  At times,
• 20:12
  I think can be viewed
• 20:14
  in a way that it does make these markets more efficient.
• 20:17
  If your end goal is to get the best information to the,
• 20:19
  to the public,
• 20:20
  let's say you're talking about,
• 20:21
  uh,
• 20:22
  survivor.
• 20:23
  Um,
• 20:23
  the idea that an insider on the survivor
• 20:26
  set that knows the winner gets that information
• 20:28
  to the prediction markets and makes money off of it
• 20:30
  does
• 20:31
  more efficiently deliver that information to the American people.
• 20:34
  And you might say,
• 20:35
  well,
• 20:35
  uh,
• 20:35
  you know,
• 20:36
  that person is profiting off of that,
• 20:37
  and other people are on the wrong side of that trade.
• 20:39
  Well,
• 20:39
  those people would have been on the wrong side of the trade anyway.
• 20:41
  It's not like the,
• 20:42
  the outcome was changed.
• 20:43
  Uh,
• 20:44
  it's just that it hit them a little bit harder and this guy made more of a profit.
• 20:47
  Uh,
• 20:47
  if that's what he was doing,
• 20:49
  there are some allegations,
• 20:50
  uh,
• 20:50
  of that happening on that,
• 20:51
  uh,
• 20:52
  allegedly on that show,
• 20:53
  uh,
• 20:53
  but regardless,
• 20:54
  if that does happen,
• 20:55
  you're
• 20:56
  making all sorts of risks because that behavior is illegal in the United States
• 21:00
  and you are not only risking,
• 21:02
  uh,
• 21:02
  your,
• 21:02
  uh,
• 21:03
  livelihood with your job,
• 21:04
  but you're
• 21:05
  risking real legal consequences,
• 21:07
  uh,
• 21:07
  with the CFTC,
• 21:08
  which is a,
• 21:09
  uh,
• 21:09
  federally,
• 21:09
  you know,
• 21:10
  um,
• 21:10
  regulated.
• 21:11
  Uh,
• 21:13
  organization,
• 21:13
  they can come and they can give you hell for that.
• 21:16
  So that's insider trading.
• 21:17
  Then they had gaming the system.
• 21:18
  Uh,
• 21:19
  that was the idea of the story which,
• 21:21
  frankly,
• 21:22
  you know,
• 21:22
  it was just amazing and shouldn't,
• 21:23
  you know,
• 21:23
  this is something that these exchanges need to crack down on when it does happen.
• 21:27
  But the guy who was doing a weather market
• 21:29
  went to the airport allegedly with a hair dryer
• 21:32
  and heated up the temperature,
• 21:34
  uh,
• 21:34
  the thermometer,
• 21:35
  so that the temperature would spike,
• 21:37
  and he made money
• 21:38
  on,
• 21:38
  I think it was a poly market.
• 21:40
  Again,
• 21:40
  these,
• 21:41
  those stories are really rare,
• 21:42
  you know,
• 21:43
  they're fun to talk about.
• 21:44
  We're gonna have a segment coming up
• 21:45
  called Stranger Trades where weird stuff happens
• 21:47
  in,
• 21:48
  uh,
• 21:48
  prediction markets.
• 21:49
  I like talking about that stuff because it's interesting
• 21:52
  and we are in
• 21:53
  uh the,
• 21:54
  the,
• 21:54
  the,
• 21:54
  the beginnings of this industry.
• 21:56
  If you're watching a show like Predictable right now,
• 21:58
  you're way ahead of everybody else.
• 22:00
  Like,
• 22:00
  uh,
• 22:01
  it's,
• 22:01
  it's ridiculous.
• 22:02
  People,
• 22:02
  you know,
• 22:03
  people don't even understand what these markets are.
• 22:05
  And you're sitting here watching a show,
• 22:06
  dissecting them on a day to day basis.
• 22:08
  You know,
• 22:08
  we started the show knowing that most people don't really have the awareness,
• 22:12
  uh,
• 22:12
  on a day to day basis to understand
• 22:15
  everything we're gonna be talking about.
• 22:16
  I'm OK with that.
• 22:17
  I think you're OK with it.
• 22:18
  We'll try to walk each other through this and,
• 22:20
  and learn from each other,
• 22:21
  but like,
• 22:22
  you know,
• 22:22
  I understand that that we're early on this,
• 22:24
  and I'm fine with it.
• 22:26
  Um,
• 22:26
  I'm excited to be early on something like this.
• 22:28
  And because we're early,
• 22:30
  these markets are also getting new and weird threats that they
• 22:33
  have to deal with on a day to day basis.
• 22:35
  You know,
• 22:35
  these,
• 22:35
  these organizations have dumped millions and millions
• 22:38
  and millions of dollars to try to catch
• 22:40
  these types of things
• 22:42
  before they happen because not only
• 22:43
  is it something that's illegal in the United States,
• 22:46
  uh,
• 22:47
  and can be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,
• 22:49
  but in addition to that,
• 22:50
  it hurts the customer user experience.
• 22:52
  If you are on one of these markets and you're like,
• 22:54
  wait a minute,
• 22:54
  that
• 22:55
  temperature just spiked all the way to the top.
• 22:58
  You feel like you got screwed,
• 22:59
  and honestly,
• 22:59
  in that situation,
• 23:00
  you probably did.
• 23:01
  And so you feel like you had a bad experience.
• 23:04
  These organizations don't wanna give you bad experience,
• 23:07
  right?
• 23:07
  That's not true information,
• 23:08
  it's not getting you true information
• 23:09
  faster.
• 23:10
  It is essentially a lie,
• 23:11
  uh,
• 23:12
  manipulated information.
• 23:13
  And the final last one was,
• 23:14
  uh,
• 23:15
  altering reality,
• 23:16
  um,
• 23:17
  the accusation being
• 23:19
  that
• 23:20
  what happens if a prediction market exists.
• 23:22
  Uh,
• 23:22
  and someone does something,
• 23:24
  changes the way they would normally act,
• 23:26
  an outcome to a real event
• 23:28
  to match that prediction market,
• 23:30
  right?
• 23:30
  We've seen this before.
• 23:31
  I think the better exam,
• 23:32
  they used an example of George Santos,
• 23:34
  who said,
• 23:35
  uh,
• 23:35
  I'm going to the,
• 23:37
  uh,
• 23:37
  State of the Union.
• 23:38
  His market spiked,
• 23:39
  whether he would go to the State of the Union,
• 23:40
  and went up to like 99% or something cause he had already said he was going.
• 23:43
  And then he later said,
• 23:45
  oh,
• 23:45
  I got caught at the airport,
• 23:46
  couldn't make it.
• 23:48
  And he's the one apparently who allegedly was making,
• 23:52
  you know,
• 23:52
  tens of thousands of dollars
• 23:54
  off of essentially taking a position against his own actions.
• 23:58
  He knew he wasn't gonna go,
• 23:59
  right?
• 23:59
  He
• 24:00
  changed his travel plans
• 24:02
  to not go to,
• 24:03
  uh,
• 24:03
  to wind up making money.
• 24:04
  Another,
• 24:05
  I think a better example of this might be,
• 24:07
  uh,
• 24:07
  they occasionally will have markets like,
• 24:08
  will someone streak at the Super Bowl or will someone streak at a sporting event?
• 24:12
  Uh,
• 24:12
  will someone run on the field during a sporting event?
• 24:15
  Uh,
• 24:15
  and people could put money on that and then be the person
• 24:18
  at the game
• 24:20
  going,
• 24:20
  uh,
• 24:21
  running onto the field,
• 24:22
  uh,
• 24:23
  to,
• 24:23
  to
• 24:24
  make sure that they won that prediction market bet.
• 24:25
  So,
• 24:26
  yeah,
• 24:26
  they get in trouble with the police,
• 24:27
  they gotta pay a fine or whatever,
• 24:28
  but they make much more on the prediction markets.
• 24:31
  You're not allowed to do that.
• 24:32
  Most of those markets have gone away,
• 24:34
  frankly,
• 24:34
  uh,
• 24:35
  the,
• 24:35
  it was more of a relic of the earlier times,
• 24:37
  but those are the type of,
• 24:38
  uh,
• 24:39
  of,
• 24:39
  of things that they're talking about and worried about.
• 24:41
  Uh,
• 24:41
  and,
• 24:42
  you know,
• 24:42
  there are some things certainly that they brought up.
• 24:44
  I thought,
• 24:45
  um,
• 24:45
  both,
• 24:46
  uh,
• 24:46
  the CEOs of Cal Calci and Poly Market made some really good observations
• 24:50
  about
• 24:51
  how they think about this.
• 24:53
  You know,
• 24:53
  these are guys that,
• 24:54
  uh,
• 24:55
  they're smart people.
• 24:56
  They are bringing,
• 24:58
  um,
• 24:58
  you know,
• 24:59
  markets.
• 24:59
  I mean,
• 24:59
  the fact that
• 25:01
  And I say this from maybe my old time here as a person who
• 25:05
  has a,
• 25:06
  a love,
• 25:06
  love relationship with capitalism.
• 25:09
  It's not perfect,
• 25:10
  of course,
• 25:10
  there are things that go wrong in the world where capitalism exists,
• 25:13
  but I am a massive fan to the extent that
• 25:16
  I think,
• 25:16
  you know,
• 25:17
  these markets,
• 25:18
  um,
• 25:18
  not prediction markets,
• 25:19
  but markets generally speaking.
• 25:21
  have made the world a much better place.
• 25:22
  We're talking about ripping billions of people out of,
• 25:24
  uh,
• 25:25
  deep poverty.
• 25:26
  Incredible innovations that made the world
• 25:29
  so much better
• 25:30
  because of the power of markets.
• 25:31
  And the fact that now we can apply that.
• 25:34
  To information
• 25:36
  It's an amazing achievement.
• 25:39
  The fact that market forces are the thing that is dissolving the mainstream media,
• 25:43
  that is taking away their power,
• 25:44
  taking away the power of campaigns and governments who
• 25:47
  are trying to spin you all the time.
• 25:49
  Well,
• 25:49
  you can understand why an Elizabeth Warren isn't a huge fan of that,
• 25:52
  right?
• 25:53
  She wants to control all of that.
• 25:55
  But the fact that our argument all this time as a,
• 25:57
  as a conservative,
• 25:58
  as a market
• 25:59
  uh fan.
• 26:01
  Uh,
• 26:01
  as a libertarian leaning conservative,
• 26:04
  that that argument is now showing
• 26:06
  how
• 26:07
  well it can do,
• 26:08
  it makes me really,
• 26:09
  really happy.
• 26:10
  Uh,
• 26:11
  because it's,
• 26:11
  it's true.
• 26:12
  These markets,
• 26:13
  uh,
• 26:14
  prediction markets are able to
• 26:16
  take
• 26:16
  the information that we all have
• 26:18
  and say,
• 26:18
  and do an end run around the media,
• 26:20
  an end run around this campaigns,
• 26:22
  an end run around the government and the spin
• 26:24
  factories and the think tanks and all these people
• 26:26
  who,
• 26:27
  who,
• 26:27
  uh,
• 26:28
  who built careers
• 26:29
  into either trying to manipulate you into believing something
• 26:33
  or just straight out lying to you.
• 26:35
  And none of that can exist here
• 26:37
  because the second that efficiency pops up,
• 26:38
  someone's there to take advantage of it.
• 26:40
  So we actually see what people really believe.
• 26:43
  That is an incredible,
• 26:44
  incredible thing that is happening right now.
• 26:46
  So,
• 26:47
  generally speaking,
• 26:47
  on the,
• 26:48
  on the,
• 26:48
  uh,
• 26:49
  Netflix documentary,
• 26:49
  is it worth your time?
• 26:50
  I'd say,
• 26:50
  yeah,
• 26:51
  I think it is.
• 26:51
  I think it's a,
• 26:52
  it's a fun watch.
• 26:53
  It's 35,
• 26:53
  40 minutes.
• 26:54
  It's an easy watch.
• 26:55
  They did a good job producing it.
• 26:57
  And frankly,
• 26:57
  I think the controversy that happened with the,
• 27:00
  the trailer which I was showing you earlier,
• 27:02
  really didn't play out as,
• 27:03
  as well.
• 27:04
  Um,
• 27:05
  as much in the actual documentary.
• 27:06
  There's a lot of stuff I disagreed with it.
• 27:08
  You know,
• 27:08
  they're trying to give both sides of the issue,
• 27:10
  uh,
• 27:10
  you know,
• 27:11
  uh,
• 27:11
  uh,
• 27:11
  that happens in these documentaries,
• 27:12
  but I thought they,
• 27:13
  generally speaking,
• 27:14
  handled it really,
• 27:15
  uh,
• 27:16
  generally pretty well.
• 27:16
  So,
• 27:17
  a,
• 27:17
  a decent watch,
• 27:18
  it's called,
• 27:18
  uh,
• 27:19
  the Prediction Games.
• 27:21
  The prediction Games.
• 27:21
  It's one of the
• 27:22
  Insta docs from
• 27:24
  Netflix
• 27:25
  and it's available now if you happen to have a Netflix
• 27:27
  subscription.
• 27:28
  Also,
• 27:28
  if you happen to have a predictableShow.com subscription,
• 27:31
  you may very well have done,
• 27:33
  uh,
• 27:33
  pretty,
• 27:34
  uh,
• 27:34
  yeah,
• 27:34
  I would say it was a,
• 27:36
  a gangbusters night in South Dakota.
• 27:38
  I don't know if they've ever had one of those in South Dakota,
• 27:40
  frankly.
• 27:41
  Um,
• 27:41
  no offense to South Dakota,
• 27:43
  uh,
• 27:43
  but not necessarily the place you think
• 27:45
  about when you think about going gangbusters.
• 27:47
  Uh,
• 27:47
  but I will say we were profitable last night.
• 27:49
  A lot of people,
• 27:50
  uh,
• 27:50
  have done well.
• 27:51
  I,
• 27:51
  we talked to somebody last night.
• 27:52
  I was in the,
• 27:53
  uh,
• 27:53
  in the subscriber chat I did at the end of the night.
• 27:56
  Um,
• 27:56
  we're talking to people there and,
• 27:58
  uh,
• 27:59
  Guy Scott said,
• 28:00
  yeah,
• 28:00
  I've already paid for my subscription just from this one
• 28:03
  election night.
• 28:03
  A much bigger one happens next Tuesday.
• 28:05
  We'll get into some of that and,
• 28:07
  uh,
• 28:07
  another big poll that had just come out,
• 28:09
  giving you scary information.
• 28:11
  If you happen to be James Paxton
• 28:13
  in Texas,
• 28:14
  we'll get to that
• 28:14
  next.
• 28:28
  New comments from James Tallarico.
• 28:31
  He is the.
• 28:32
  Uh,
• 28:32
  candidate
• 28:33
  for the Democrats in the Senate here in Texas.
• 28:36
  Here's what he says.
• 28:37
  James Tallarico now says
• 28:38
  he backs reparations
• 28:40
  for slavery.
• 28:43
  Now he had bad polls about,
• 28:45
  uh,
• 28:45
  African American voters,
• 28:46
  uh,
• 28:47
  was not doing as well as he thought he should be.
• 28:49
  So
• 28:50
  now he's out
• 28:51
  saying he's got wants reparations for slavery,
• 28:54
  um,
• 28:55
  protecting that left wing flank for
• 28:57
  God knows what reason,
• 28:58
  uh,
• 28:58
  you know,
• 28:59
  he's being called a racist by,
• 29:01
  um,
• 29:02
  what's her face,
• 29:02
  Jasmine Crockett,
• 29:03
  my favorite.
• 29:04
  Um,
• 29:04
  now,
• 29:04
  of course,
• 29:05
  that's just what she does.
• 29:06
  I don't even know that she wakes up in the morning,
• 29:07
  she's just blurting out recalls of racism,
• 29:09
  so she has no idea even what it's happening anymore,
• 29:12
  um.
• 29:13
  I give you that story,
• 29:15
  mainly to set the table for this one.
• 29:18
  New poll is out.
• 29:19
  James Tallarico
• 29:21
  leads
• 29:22
  in the Senate race.
• 29:24
  In Texas.
• 29:25
  Now,
• 29:25
  this is not the first poll to show this.
• 29:27
  I don't
• 29:28
  doubt.
• 29:31
  That
• 29:31
  as we speak at this moment.
• 29:34
  James Tallarico has a slight lead over Ken Paxton.
• 29:37
  This is what the poll looks like.
• 29:38
  This is the biggest lead he's had though.
• 29:39
  Uh,
• 29:40
  45% for Tallarico,
• 29:42
  40% for Paxton,
• 29:44
  uh,
• 29:44
  1% for the Libertarian,
• 29:46
  and 14% undecided.
• 29:55
  You're telling me,
• 29:56
  this state that I live in,
• 29:58
  this awesome state that I live in,
• 29:59
  I love Texas.
• 30:01
  A lot of people who
• 30:02
  think.
• 30:04
  With common sense.
• 30:07
  You're telling me
• 30:09
  That this population of this state.
• 30:12
  is going to embrace a guy.
• 30:15
  Who is who's running on a platform.
• 30:19
  Which indicates that people
• 30:22
  who were not born.
• 30:24
  And would not be born for multiple generations
• 30:27
  after this uh admitted horror show of slavery,
• 30:31
  should be held
• 30:32
  financially responsible to redirect funds
• 30:36
  to the descendants
• 30:38
  of the victims
• 30:40
  of slavery.
• 30:43
  You're telling me that Texas
• 30:45
  is going to embrace that guy.
• 30:48
  You're telling me that Texas
• 30:50
  is going to embrace
• 30:52
  a guy
• 30:53
  who says God is non-binary
• 30:56
  on camera.
• 31:00
  Really
• 31:02
  Does that make any sense to you at all?
• 31:04
  Now,
• 31:05
  I live in Texas.
• 31:06
  I'm not there,
• 31:07
  Texas is.
• 31:09
  Not a purple state.
• 31:10
  Texas is a red
• 31:12
  state.
• 31:13
  Texas is the type of state
• 31:15
  where Republicans can win in almost any environment.
• 31:19
  There is an exception to that,
• 31:20
  which is a catastrophic worst-case scenario
• 31:24
  where someone like James Tallarico,
• 31:25
  I,
• 31:26
  theoretically
• 31:28
  could be competitive here.
• 31:29
  We have seen competitive,
• 31:30
  uh,
• 31:30
  races before.
• 31:31
  Uh,
• 31:31
  Ted Cruz
• 31:32
  won by 3 or 4 points against Beto O'Rourke.
• 31:35
  Now,
• 31:35
  O'Rourke
• 31:37
  was,
• 31:37
  first of all,
• 31:38
  promoted and,
• 31:39
  and lived
• 31:40
  his life trying to sell himself as a moderate.
• 31:43
  Um,
• 31:44
  that,
• 31:44
  of course,
• 31:44
  evaporated when he,
• 31:45
  uh,
• 31:45
  thought he was running for president and,
• 31:47
  and was trying to convince everybody he was a big liberal.
• 31:49
  Um,
• 31:49
  but he tried to present himself as a moderate here in Texas initially.
• 31:53
  Um,
• 31:53
  he was a guy who people were like,
• 31:55
  oh,
• 31:55
  he's a rock star,
• 31:56
  he's a good-looking guy.
• 31:57
  What a great candidate.
• 31:59
  Now,
• 31:59
  I didn't buy into that,
• 32:00
  I was never a fan.
• 32:01
  I did make a very similar argument about Beto O'Rourke at the time.
• 32:04
  Gosh,
• 32:05
  he's getting a lot of hype,
• 32:06
  getting a lot of money flowing into the state,
• 32:07
  but are you telling me
• 32:09
  this state is going to embrace Beto O'Rourke,
• 32:12
  really?
• 32:13
  And of course,
• 32:13
  at the end of the day,
• 32:14
  we got a big hype cycle,
• 32:16
  and then he didn't.
• 32:17
  I am not 100% sure.
• 32:20
  Uh,
• 32:21
  that,
• 32:21
  uh,
• 32:21
  James Tallarico is going to lose here in Texas.
• 32:24
  Um,
• 32:26
  Most of that has to do with his opponent,
• 32:29
  Ken Paxton,
• 32:29
  who's a guy that I think does some really good things.
• 32:32
  Maybe not all great things,
• 32:34
  uh,
• 32:34
  he's had some issues with scandals and such,
• 32:37
  but you have to understand as a,
• 32:38
  a person who lives in Texas,
• 32:40
  the people in Texas have dealt with these scandals before.
• 32:44
  He's won statewide elections since these scandals were happening.
• 32:49
  I think what people really think about Ken Paxton generally in the state
• 32:53
  is that they like his policies,
• 32:55
  they generally speaking like that he
• 32:58
  will be kind of unrelenting when it comes to taking on,
• 33:01
  uh,
• 33:01
  the,
• 33:02
  the issues that he cares about,
• 33:03
  most of which Texans agree with him on.
• 33:05
  They don't love his personal life stuff,
• 33:07
  they don't love certain things about him,
• 33:10
  um,
• 33:10
  but,
• 33:12
  Generally speaking,
• 33:13
  when it comes down to it,
• 33:14
  and their option is a Democrat,
• 33:16
  uh,
• 33:17
  and someone who does not agree with any of their values
• 33:19
  and who will vote with Chuck Schumer every single day,
• 33:22
  generally speaking,
• 33:23
  Texans have come home and said,
• 33:24
  all right,
• 33:25
  you know,
• 33:25
  like I don't love Paxson,
• 33:26
  but we'll go with him.
• 33:28
  That's where what I think will happen.
• 33:31
  To give you a picture of what this state is like right now,
• 33:33
  it's 175 degrees outside every day.
• 33:36
  No one can be,
• 33:37
  no one can even think it's so hot.
• 33:39
  You know,
• 33:39
  people are going on vacation,
• 33:40
  they're all down,
• 33:41
  you know,
• 33:42
  somewhere else at the beach,
• 33:43
  uh,
• 33:44
  their kids are in camp.
• 33:45
  They're doing things that are completely unrelated to politics.
• 33:49
  Nobody in this state is engaged in this election yet.
• 33:51
  Outside of,
• 33:52
  uh,
• 33:53
  people
• 33:53
  who are watching,
• 33:54
  you know,
• 33:55
  um,
• 33:55
  uh,
• 33:55
  lunatics on the internet,
• 33:57
  uh,
• 33:57
  promoting,
• 33:58
  um,
• 33:59
  you know,
• 33:59
  uh,
• 33:59
  James Tallarico incessantly.
• 34:02
  You know,
• 34:02
  this is a race that is very much nationalized,
• 34:06
  and I will say Tallarico has raised a lot of money and that's going to be
• 34:10
  a problem for Republicans.
• 34:12
  The reason why is because it's Paxton and not a
• 34:15
  candidate that might be a little bit easier to,
• 34:17
  to win in,
• 34:18
  in,
• 34:18
  uh,
• 34:18
  conservative Texas.
• 34:20
  You will have a situation where Republicans will need to
• 34:23
  probably dump some money into Texas to win this race,
• 34:25
  and that's something that is going to
• 34:27
  be detrimental potentially to other races Republicans are
• 34:30
  battling in other parts of the state.
• 34:31
  Obviously,
• 34:32
  Republicans cannot lose this seat,
• 34:33
  and so they will have to put whatever resources are necessary into winning it.
• 34:38
  I just am not of the belief that it's nearly,
• 34:42
  uh,
• 34:42
  this,
• 34:42
  these polls are realistic.
• 34:43
  Let me give you another,
• 34:44
  uh,
• 34:44
  this is a kind of a breakdown of these polls.
• 34:47
  Uh,
• 34:47
  if you look at all voters,
• 34:48
  it's 45-40 for Tallarico,
• 34:50
  Republicans,
• 34:50
  81 to 7.
• 34:51
  Um,
• 34:52
  you're telling me 19% of voters are really questioning
• 34:55
  whether they're gonna vote for James Tallarico or not.
• 34:58
  Now,
• 34:58
  some of them might stay home.
• 34:59
  I do believe there are some,
• 35:00
  particularly religious conservatives who look at PACs and say,
• 35:02
  gosh,
• 35:03
  he's got all sorts of personal problems,
• 35:04
  been kind of a disaster on that front.
• 35:06
  I don't know that I can support this guy.
• 35:08
  That all feels good in the summer.
• 35:10
  Feels a lot less good when James Tallarico,
• 35:13
  Mr.
• 35:13
  Non-binary,
• 35:14
  uh,
• 35:15
  Jesus,
• 35:15
  uh,
• 35:16
  is,
• 35:16
  uh,
• 35:17
  sitting there saying these things in front of your face
• 35:19
  over and over and over and over and over again.
• 35:22
  I,
• 35:22
  I find it hard to believe,
• 35:25
  just like I found it hard to believe that
• 35:27
  anyone,
• 35:28
  including Hillary Clinton,
• 35:29
  would beat Donald Trump in Texas.
• 35:31
  I mean if you go back to 2016,
• 35:33
  Donald Trump was a very flawed candidate in Texas.
• 35:35
  He was not a guy that was widely embraced by the Republicans here.
• 35:38
  He,
• 35:39
  people didn't like that he had these personal issues,
• 35:41
  that he would say things that didn't always seem true,
• 35:43
  that he,
• 35:44
  you know,
• 35:44
  he,
• 35:45
  they didn't were not huge.
• 35:46
  Fans,
• 35:46
  but at no point was I questioning whether he was going to win Texas or not,
• 35:50
  because
• 35:50
  it just doesn't believe that,
• 35:51
  I believe that it's possible.
• 35:52
  Now,
• 35:53
  the demographics have shifted a little bit here.
• 35:55
  Uh,
• 35:55
  Trump is not particularly if you believe this poll,
• 35:57
  he's underwater
• 35:59
  in Texas.
• 36:00
  Uh,
• 36:00
  whether that holds up,
• 36:01
  I don't know.
• 36:02
  Democrats,
• 36:02
  uh,
• 36:03
  are complete,
• 36:04
  but I just don't believe 19% of Republicans
• 36:06
  are really on the fence on James Tallarico.
• 36:08
  Uh,
• 36:09
  Republicans are.
• 36:09
  Democrats,
• 36:10
  excuse me,
• 36:10
  much more united
• 36:11
  in favor of Tallarico.
• 36:12
  Independents do favor,
• 36:14
  um,
• 36:15
  Tallarico,
• 36:16
  uh,
• 36:16
  in this poll
• 36:17
  by a margin of,
• 36:19
  or excuse me,
• 36:20
  uh,
• 36:20
  yeah,
• 36:20
  43 to 23.
• 36:21
  I don't think the split splits will be that large on election day.
• 36:24
  White voters 53 to 33 for Paxton.
• 36:27
  Black voters 71 to 8
• 36:29
  for Tallarico.
• 36:30
  Latinos,
• 36:30
  66 to 20 for,
• 36:32
  for Tallarico.
• 36:33
  Um,
• 36:33
  and then,
• 36:34
  uh,
• 36:35
  uh,
• 36:35
  for whatever reason,
• 36:36
  uh,
• 36:36
  non-college voters,
• 36:38
  this is not usually the way this plays out,
• 36:39
  um,
• 36:40
  around the country,
• 36:40
  45-36
• 36:42
  for Tallarico over Paxton,
• 36:44
  and then college voters are pretty,
• 36:45
  pretty much split 45-44.
• 36:47
  So
• 36:48
  all that means
• 36:50
  this isn't a deep breakdown of the numbers.
• 36:52
  I don't think that's appropriate yet.
• 36:53
  Um,
• 36:54
  I will say in the same poll,
• 36:56
  Greg Abbott,
• 36:57
  who is a very normal,
• 36:59
  you know,
• 36:59
  I don't know,
• 37:00
  I,
• 37:00
  I would say,
• 37:01
  uh,
• 37:02
  the type of guy who wins pretty easily in Texas,
• 37:04
  right?
• 37:04
  Like,
• 37:04
  not a guy who's had lots of personal problems.
• 37:07
  He's not beloved by the conservative community here.
• 37:09
  There's not tons of passion for him out of that community,
• 37:12
  but generally speaking,
• 37:13
  he wins these elections usually by low double digits.
• 37:16
  In this poll,
• 37:17
  he's only up by 3.
• 37:18
  Now that either says something catastrophic for the environment
• 37:22
  that we're going into here in this election.
• 37:25
  I,
• 37:25
  I'm not a person who believes it's gonna be good for Republicans,
• 37:27
  but catastrophic is another territory.
• 37:30
  Uh,
• 37:31
  my guess is Abbott will win by a lot more than 3
• 37:33
  points when this all comes down to the end of this,
• 37:35
  uh,
• 37:36
  situation.
• 37:37
  And,
• 37:37
  you know,
• 37:37
  uh,
• 37:37
  uh,
• 37:38
  uh,
• 37:38
  uh,
• 37:38
  when that happens,
• 37:39
  I think Paxson's gonna be much more competitive,
• 37:42
  probably winning,
• 37:43
  um,
• 37:43
  uh,
• 37:43
  this election.
• 37:44
  I,
• 37:44
  I,
• 37:44
  I would consider him
• 37:46
  a favorite.
• 37:47
  The markets
• 37:48
  also
• 37:49
  sort of
• 37:50
  agree with me on that.
• 37:51
  They also believe he is the favorite in this race,
• 37:53
  but very,
• 37:54
  very narrowly.
• 37:55
  Can we show this market?
• 37:55
  This is the Texas Senate winner.
• 37:57
  And you see,
• 37:58
  at one point,
• 37:59
  um,
• 37:59
  Ken Paxton was around 80%
• 38:01
  favorite.
• 38:04
  It narrowed to about 55 to 58 for a while,
• 38:09
  hung around there,
• 38:10
  and it started to bump up a little bit.
• 38:12
  This latest poll has moved it back down now,
• 38:14
  where Ken Paxson has only a 54% chance.
• 38:17
  To get a Republican Senate winner
• 38:20
  at 54%
• 38:22
  is the type of bargain you don't see come around
• 38:25
  very often.
• 38:26
  You're talking about 80,
• 38:27
  90% profit margins.
• 38:30
  Uh,
• 38:30
  over,
• 38:31
  uh,
• 38:31
  3,
• 38:32
  in 96 days,
• 38:33
  as it says,
• 38:33
  uh,
• 38:33
  on the,
• 38:34
  uh,
• 38:34
  Calci chart there.
• 38:35
  In 96 days to get,
• 38:37
  uh,
• 38:37
  well,
• 38:37
  basically doubling your money
• 38:38
  is a wonderful,
• 38:40
  wonderful return.
• 38:41
  There are risks to this investment.
• 38:43
  I do not think,
• 38:44
  you know,
• 38:44
  that this is a sure thing as it should be in Texas.
• 38:48
  The issue here is Paxton could have another scandal of some sort.
• 38:53
  If it wasn't
• 38:54
  horribly bad,
• 38:55
  he'd probably survive it because that's kind of who he is in this state.
• 38:58
  Uh,
• 38:58
  he's a guy everyone knows has his bumps and bruises,
• 39:01
  but generally speaking,
• 39:02
  gets across the finish line.
• 39:03
  We will see if that happens here.
• 39:05
  I just think that the real value of this
• 39:08
  is much higher than 54%.
• 39:09
  It's probably more like 70,
• 39:11
  75%
• 39:12
  in my mind
• 39:13
  that he will win
• 39:15
  because what will typically happen,
• 39:17
  and this happens in,
• 39:17
  it's a great thing to look for,
• 39:19
  it's this,
• 39:19
  and we need to come up with a catchy name for it.
• 39:21
  It's the primary swing.
• 39:22
  You have a,
• 39:23
  a tough primary,
• 39:24
  Corn versus Paxton,
• 39:25
  and Wesley Hunt was in there as well.
• 39:27
  Uh,
• 39:27
  battle,
• 39:27
  battle,
• 39:28
  battle,
• 39:28
  battle,
• 39:28
  battle,
• 39:29
  hatred.
• 39:29
  These guys hate each other.
• 39:31
  There's all these people,
• 39:32
  both sides hate the other side.
• 39:34
  Paxton winds up winning.
• 39:36
  Uh,
• 39:36
  he winds up getting through the primary and now he's the candidate,
• 39:39
  and those Cornyn voters feel pissed about it.
• 39:42
  The Wesley Hunt voters to a lesser extent,
• 39:44
  are annoyed about that.
• 39:45
  They wanted their guy.
• 39:46
  They didn't get their guy,
• 39:47
  and they're annoyed about it.
• 39:48
  And when someone calls them,
• 39:49
  they say,
• 39:49
  I'm not voting for Paxton.
• 39:51
  I'm undecided.
• 39:51
  I'm voting for the other guy.
• 39:53
  I want to punish him.
• 39:54
  But when it comes down to the actual future of the country,
• 39:57
  when it comes down to control of the Senate,
• 40:00
  that's not even a vote for Paxton at that point.
• 40:02
  That is a vote for
• 40:03
  holy crap,
• 40:04
  the Democrats might be controlling the Senate,
• 40:06
  the Democrats might be able to block our Supreme Court justices,
• 40:10
  the Democrats might be able to sink every single bill Donald Trump wants.
• 40:15
  It's not gonna be me making that argument.
• 40:17
  Donald Trump's gonna be making that argument.
• 40:18
  Everybody on the Republican side,
• 40:20
  that,
• 40:20
  the,
• 40:20
  the podcasters that these people listen to will be making
• 40:23
  that argument over and over and over and over again.
• 40:25
  People come home,
• 40:26
  typically.
• 40:27
  And that doesn't guarantee a victory for Paxton.
• 40:30
  But I think it is much,
• 40:31
  much higher than 54%.
• 40:33
  I think there's real value there.
• 40:34
  Uh,
• 40:35
  we will see how that,
• 40:36
  uh,
• 40:36
  goes as we go forward,
• 40:38
  uh,
• 40:38
  but that's what I think.
• 40:39
  By the way,
• 40:39
  last night,
• 40:40
  uh,
• 40:40
  we also had a,
• 40:41
  an interesting situation,
• 40:42
  uh,
• 40:42
  Roden versus Doden.
• 40:43
  We talked about it a little bit yesterday.
• 40:45
  We won
• 40:46
  with Roden.
• 40:46
  Got about 10,
• 40:47
  12%.
• 40:48
  Uh,
• 40:49
  over,
• 40:49
  uh,
• 40:49
  48 hour period,
• 40:51
  very happy with those results,
• 40:53
  uh,
• 40:53
  and,
• 40:54
  uh,
• 40:54
  took a nice profit,
• 40:55
  and that's the type of stuff we give you all the time here at PredictableShow.com.
• 40:58
  At least my beliefs.
• 41:00
  We also hit on three different,
• 41:02
  uh,
• 41:02
  margin markets,
• 41:03
  would,
• 41:03
  would,
• 41:04
  uh,
• 41:04
  road and win by 5 points,
• 41:06
  10 points,
• 41:06
  and 15 points.
• 41:07
  Hit on all three of those.
• 41:08
  Uh,
• 41:09
  the only one we missed on,
• 41:10
  we missed by 0.8%,
• 41:12
  which was a big long shot.
• 41:13
  It was like,
• 41:14
  uh,
• 41:14
  you know,
• 41:14
  10 times,
• 41:15
  20 times or 10 to 15 times our money.
• 41:17
  Uh,
• 41:18
  we would have hit on
• 41:19
  if,
• 41:19
  if Roden had ended up below 70%,
• 41:22
  instead,
• 41:22
  he got 70.8%. Uh,
• 41:24
  so we just missed that one,
• 41:25
  but
• 41:26
  just a little slice of our profits given back to the community
• 41:29
  on that one.
• 41:30
  Nice night for us in,
• 41:31
  uh,
• 41:31
  in South Dakota and nice night for the predictable show
• 41:34
  community.
• 41:35
  So make sure to join us,
• 41:36
  predictableshow.com.
• 41:37
  Go check that out.
• 41:39
  We'll be back with more.
• 41:40
  We have some crazy things that have happened
• 41:42
  in the prediction markets,
• 41:43
  wild stories.
• 41:45
  A new episode of Stranger Trades is next.
• 42:03
  Ah,
• 42:03
  stranger trades where we look at the bizarre
• 42:06
  things that happen to people on prediction markets.
• 42:08
  I,
• 42:08
  I don't know.
• 42:09
  Sometimes you can be a huge winner when these things happen to you.
• 42:12
  Sometimes you can be a huge loser when these things happen to you,
• 42:15
  and sometimes strange things do
• 42:16
  happen on prediction markets.
• 42:18
  Today's episode has to do with Anthony Fauci.
• 42:21
  Now,
• 42:21
  Fauci was testifying in front of uh Congress
• 42:26
  about his diaries,
• 42:27
  his emails,
• 42:28
  and whether
• 42:29
  Uh,
• 42:30
  what he did during the pandemic was,
• 42:32
  uh,
• 42:33
  enough information to make you think he's a magical
• 42:36
  hero and you should burn a candle for him,
• 42:38
  uh,
• 42:38
  or,
• 42:38
  uh,
• 42:38
  did a really crappy job and did not help at all.
• 42:40
  In fact,
• 42:41
  has lowered the confidence of our public,
• 42:43
  uh,
• 42:43
  in our public health
• 42:44
  system and officials,
• 42:46
  uh,
• 42:46
  to an extent I didn't even think it was possible,
• 42:48
  frankly,
• 42:49
  before all this happened,
• 42:50
  but.
• 42:52
  There is a mention market about this,
• 42:54
  about his,
• 42:55
  um,
• 42:55
  testimony,
• 42:57
  and it's a really interesting one,
• 42:59
  and if you were involved in this,
• 43:00
  you may know where this is going.
• 43:02
  Hopefully,
• 43:03
  you're on the right side of it.
• 43:04
  The question was,
• 43:05
  what will Fauci say during the Senate Homeland Security
• 43:08
  hearing?
• 43:08
  And
• 43:09
  let me give you this first example,
• 43:10
  the first word,
• 43:11
  if you don't know what a mention mark is,
• 43:12
  basically,
• 43:12
  it's,
• 43:13
  did you
• 43:14
  have a situation
• 43:15
  where,
• 43:16
  uh,
• 43:16
  did the,
• 43:17
  you know,
• 43:17
  that when in the middle of this testimony,
• 43:18
  did he say a specific.
• 43:20
  word.
• 43:21
  What was he gonna talk about is basically what these markets are trying to suss out.
• 43:24
  And Joe Biden was one of the options.
• 43:26
  Now,
• 43:26
  the markets,
• 43:27
  uh,
• 43:27
  thought the value for this was
• 43:30
  leading up to the event,
• 43:31
  probably between,
• 43:32
  you know,
• 43:33
  45 and 55%
• 43:35
  chance.
• 43:36
  Um,
• 43:37
  and then you see,
• 43:38
  as the,
• 43:39
  uh,
• 43:39
  testimony unfurls,
• 43:41
  it goes down to 0.
• 43:43
  So,
• 43:43
  Joe Biden was not said.
• 43:45
  So if you had Biden,
• 43:46
  no,
• 43:47
  you won in a big way.
• 43:48
  Let's go to the next,
• 43:49
  uh,
• 43:50
  possibility.
• 43:50
  The next possibility was the CDC.
• 43:52
  You gotta think the CDC is gonna come through,
• 43:53
  right?
• 43:54
  He's,
• 43:54
  he's,
• 43:54
  he's,
• 43:55
  you know,
• 43:55
  Anthony Fauci.
• 43:56
  Uh,
• 43:56
  you see,
• 43:57
  people thought that was almost a sure thing
• 43:59
  in the high 80s
• 44:00
  for a good part of the week,
• 44:02
  and then all of a sudden
• 44:04
  drops down to
• 44:05
  0.
• 44:07
  Next one,
• 44:08
  let's go to the next market,
• 44:09
  whatever it is.
• 44:09
  Let's see.
• 44:10
  Uh,
• 44:11
  China,
• 44:11
  uh,
• 44:12
  China,
• 44:12
  you think,
• 44:13
  is he gonna say it?
• 44:13
  Yeah,
• 44:13
  most of the markets thought,
• 44:14
  I mean,
• 44:14
  it was up near 100%,
• 44:16
  frankly,
• 44:17
  uh,
• 44:17
  before this thing started,
• 44:18
  drops to 0.
• 44:20
  Next market,
• 44:21
  uh,
• 44:21
  was a conspiracy,
• 44:23
  and people were not nearly as sure that he would say the word conspiracy.
• 44:26
  It was dropping below 40% chance he would say it,
• 44:28
  uh,
• 44:28
  went up to about 60%,
• 44:30
  um,
• 44:30
  but at the end of the day,
• 44:32
  dropped down to
• 44:33
  0.
• 44:34
  Hm,
• 44:35
  all of these,
• 44:35
  I mean,
• 44:36
  can we scroll down the whole thing?
• 44:37
  Are they all zero?
• 44:38
  No,
• 44:38
  no,
• 44:39
  no,
• 44:39
  no,
• 44:39
  no,
• 44:40
  no,
• 44:40
  no,
• 44:40
  no.
• 44:41
  I mean,
• 44:41
  every single possibility over and over and again,
• 44:43
  no,
• 44:44
  no,
• 44:44
  no,
• 44:45
  no,
• 44:45
  no.
• 44:45
  And even Wuhan,
• 44:47
  which would be surprising that he said,
• 44:49
  no,
• 44:49
  Trump 3 times,
• 44:51
  no.
• 44:52
  He didn't say Trump 3 times in his testimony.
• 44:54
  The market sort of believed that he would,
• 44:56
  but I guess about a 40 or 50% chance,
• 44:58
  but at least a chance of it.
• 44:59
  Um,
• 45:00
  went down to 0.
• 45:01
  Of course,
• 45:02
  if you watch the testimony,
• 45:03
  you know exactly what happened,
• 45:04
  and it's a strange quirk of one of these
• 45:06
  congressional testimony
• 45:08
  mention markets.
• 45:10
  What happened?
• 45:11
  Anthony Fauci invokes 5th Amendment right not to answer questions at COVID hearing
• 45:17
  and calls Rand Paul
• 45:18
  unhinged.
• 45:19
  What's interesting is,
• 45:21
  he did do an opening statement,
• 45:22
  and I think that would have actually counted if he had said any of those words,
• 45:26
  but apparently he didn't say any of them.
• 45:28
  He said obsession about 10 times.
• 45:29
  I think he's trying to key into the,
• 45:31
  the algorithms there on the movie.
• 45:33
  Uh,
• 45:33
  but he said obsession a bunch of times,
• 45:34
  he said Rand Paul was obsessed with him.
• 45:36
  But at the end of the day,
• 45:37
  he didn't say any of the words in there.
• 45:39
  And this is an interesting thing to think about
• 45:41
  in the future for these types of markets.
• 45:43
  We all could have
• 45:44
  probably assumed,
• 45:45
  or at least if we thought about it in advance,
• 45:47
  I didn't really think about it in advance.
• 45:49
  I was thinking about playing this market too.
• 45:50
  I'm glad I didn't because I would have picked some of these as yes.
• 45:53
  Um,
• 45:54
  what will he say?
• 45:55
  What will he not say?
• 45:56
  Well,
• 45:56
  if he takes the Fifth Amendment,
• 45:58
  he's just repeating that same phrase over and over and over again.
• 46:00
  He doesn't say anything.
• 46:02
  Outside of that opening statement,
• 46:04
  so you had a very small window for him to say a few things.
• 46:08
  He then,
• 46:08
  when he started getting questions,
• 46:09
  said,
• 46:09
  uh,
• 46:10
  Fifth Amendment,
• 46:11
  no.
• 46:11
  So every single person with a yes position
• 46:14
  in this market,
• 46:15
  do we have a,
• 46:16
  do you see the volume at the bottom of that,
• 46:17
  Adam,
• 46:17
  by any chance on that,
• 46:18
  uh,
• 46:19
  on that market?
• 46:20
  Um.
• 46:21
  $528,000 on that market.
• 46:24
  Everybody who had a yes position on that,
• 46:26
  every single position
• 46:28
  wound up with no.
• 46:29
  I,
• 46:29
  I mean,
• 46:29
  I've talked to a few of these mentioned market traders,
• 46:31
  uh,
• 46:32
  that do really,
• 46:32
  really well in these markets.
• 46:33
  I'm fascinated to know
• 46:34
  if they call that in advance because
• 46:37
  honestly,
• 46:37
  Calci should probably,
• 46:38
  and Polymarket as well,
• 46:39
  should probably put something in there,
• 46:42
  say,
• 46:42
  just saying Fifth Amendment,
• 46:43
  right?
• 46:44
  So there's some option if that person says,
• 46:46
  it takes the 5th the entire time,
• 46:48
  that's another option for that person.
• 46:50
  Uh,
• 46:50
  to try to win on,
• 46:52
  on one of those markets,
• 46:53
  but.
• 46:54
  If,
• 46:55
  and you can look at this both ways.
• 46:56
  I see this all the time.
• 46:57
  SportsCenter does these,
• 46:58
  they are bad beats,
• 47:00
  and the bad beat is always like some crazy thing that happens
• 47:03
  that screws you over on your supposed win.
• 47:05
  And everyone always takes the terrible negative side of that.
• 47:09
  You know,
• 47:09
  it's always a bad beat.
• 47:11
  But as we know,
• 47:12
  especially in prediction markets,
• 47:13
  there's someone on the side,
• 47:14
  the positive side of every one of those trades as well.
• 47:17
  Somebody who
• 47:18
  thought,
• 47:19
  gosh,
• 47:19
  I,
• 47:19
  I don't think he's gonna say the word conspiracy.
• 47:21
  It might have been completely wrong if,
• 47:22
  if,
• 47:23
  uh,
• 47:23
  Fauci actually
• 47:24
  had a testimony,
• 47:25
  uh,
• 47:26
  that was normal.
• 47:27
  Uh,
• 47:28
  instead,
• 47:29
  uh,
• 47:29
  we're winning.
• 47:30
  They were the people who won on the quirky craziness of a prediction market.
• 47:34
  So,
• 47:34
  congratulations if you were on the right side of that stranger
• 47:38
  trade.
• 47:39
  All right,
• 47:39
  PredictableShow.com is the place to go to subscribe.
• 47:42
  Uh,
• 47:42
  we wind up,
• 47:43
  uh,
• 47:43
  having some great information for you at predictableShow.com.
• 47:47
  In fact,
• 47:47
  we've,
• 47:47
  uh,
• 47:47
  you know,
• 47:48
  we talked about our,
• 47:48
  uh,
• 47:49
  all those market positions that we talked about
• 47:51
  in South Dakota.
• 47:53
  We,
• 47:53
  we,
• 47:53
  we kind of laid out,
• 47:54
  um,
• 47:54
  in.
• 47:55
  Detail.
• 47:55
  Now,
• 47:55
  I told you who I thought was gonna win earlier,
• 47:57
  got into more detail
• 47:58
  on the paid tier.
• 47:59
  You were able to take more advantage.
• 48:01
  A lot of times in those margin markets,
• 48:03
  you're able to,
• 48:03
  even in a race that's basically decided,
• 48:06
  you're able to get 1015,
• 48:07
  20%
• 48:08
  on your money in those margin markets if you can play them right.
• 48:11
  We almost nailed a 10xer,
• 48:13
  uh,
• 48:14
  last night,
• 48:15
  uh,
• 48:15
  but,
• 48:15
  you know.
• 48:16
  Those 1,000% gains don't come around every single day.
• 48:19
  OK,
• 48:19
  um,
• 48:20
  we're gonna take,
• 48:20
  uh,
• 48:21
  say goodbye to you today or maybe we'll do some streaming a little bit later on
• 48:24
  over at the website predictableShow.com.
• 48:26
  Answering your questions,
• 48:27
  doing whatever we can,
• 48:28
  um,
• 48:28
  uh,
• 48:28
  and then check out the live stream as well.
• 48:30
  It's part of that paid package at uh predictableShow.com.
• 48:32
  You get to watch me,
• 48:33
  uh,
• 48:33
  tape the show.
• 48:34
  Live,
• 48:34
  you can see all the behind the scenes stuff
• 48:36
  and producers coming over,
• 48:37
  yelling at me,
• 48:38
  throwing things at me,
• 48:40
  physically and mentally abusing me,
• 48:41
  which is what they do in the commercial breaks.
• 48:43
  I hope you know that.
• 48:44
  This is a cry for help.
• 48:45
  You get to see that
• 48:47
  on the live stream
• 48:48
  as well.
• 48:48
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 48:49
  We'll see you at predictableshow.com.