Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 342 - 8/22/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 342 - 8/22/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 342 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:36
  Happy Friday. Our work week is coming to an
• 0:39
  end and more importantly, we are now less than 24 hours from the
• 0:43
  return of college football. You'll love to see it, guys.
• 0:47
  Obviously we got NFL pre season here, Week 3 going on and a
• 0:50
  little bit of a wait here until Week 1, but we have college
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  football to bet on Week 0. That's right, we got a slate of
• 0:56
  games for tomorrow. I want to thank anyone who tuned
• 0:59
  in to last night's Rhythm rundown.
• 1:02
  If you missed it, I'm partnering, partnering with
• 1:04
  Rhythm once again this year. I'm super honored and excited
• 1:07
  and myself and my buddy Kate Harper will be hosting a
• 1:10
  Thursday night show. We kicked it off last night and
• 1:14
  really excited to do this every Thursday night from 6:00 PM to
• 1:17
  7:00 PM and actually talked about a couple bets that I have
• 1:20
  for tomorrow. So I got a couple plays here
• 1:22
  guys. I have a play on the Iowa State
• 1:25
  K State game and I have a play on Stanford, Hawaii.
• 1:28
  So I'm going to give you my first 2 college football best
• 1:31
  bets of the season. We got some good sharp line
• 1:34
  movement, We got a contrarian opportunity, we got some good
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  sharp mush edges here. So looking forward to hopefully
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  starting our college football season off with a bang.
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  Also do have a three pack of MLB plays for you guys today.
• 1:46
  So once again, we're going to continue to grind Major League
• 1:49
  Baseball and as always, we're going to try to eke out A2 in
• 1:52
  one night and hopefully have a winning night here.
• 1:54
  So as always, guys, we're going to get right back to do what we
• 1:57
  love to do. But I also want to reiterate the
• 2:00
  fact that we do have a couple contests you can join.
• 2:03
  I mentioned this earlier this week, but I have now partnered
• 2:06
  with Splash Sports, which is my, my buddy James Santor's new, new
• 2:11
  company. I'll, I'll follow James
• 2:13
  anywhere. I'll follow him into into the
• 2:14
  sun. But James is a great sharp guy
• 2:16
  and he just joined Splash and he said, you know what, you got a
• 2:20
  decent following. I'm sure they like to bet,
• 2:21
  contest, contest, obviously different than individual bets,
• 2:26
  but I think it's a way to just diversify your bankroll and, and
• 2:28
  make some money. And that's always the goal.
• 2:30
  If you can make money on a game bet or a player prop or a
• 2:33
  contest, you're, you're using your sports betting knowledge
• 2:36
  hopefully to win some cash here. So to remind you guys, I have
• 2:39
  two pools that you can join. So we have the NFL survivor cost
• 2:44
  $25 to enter and you could win $11,000 if you are the ultimate
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  survivor. And then we also have a college
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  football pick em pool. So you pick five games a week.
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  They have to be top 25 matches. So you could technically pick
• 2:58
  Iowa State, K State as one of your first pick and plays
• 3:01
  because those are a couple of ranked teams there.
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  But again, that's a $25 entry fee.
• 3:06
  You can win anywhere from like 500 bucks to like 4000 bucks.
• 3:10
  So we already have people signing up If you want to go to
• 3:13
  my Twitter profile at Josh under score insights, my pinned tweet
• 3:17
  at the very top of my profile, you'll get links to the college
• 3:20
  football survivor or sorry, the NFL survivor as well as the
• 3:23
  college football pick'em. And again, you can have as many
• 3:26
  as 5 entries. So just want to remind everyone
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  that you can join those contests if you want to test your
• 3:32
  knowledge and hopefully turn a little bit of a profit.
• 3:35
  So with that being said, on a Friday as we steam into the
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  weekend, and by the way, guys, it's a little bit of a getaway
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  day for me. I mentioned this I think before
• 3:42
  earlier this week, but the final month of August.
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  We've been doing this with my family for, I don't know, 10
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  years at this point, but we always go to the Cape.
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  My dad is generous enough to rent a, an Airbnb for us for a
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  week. We got my family coming from
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  Jersey, from Massachusetts, my aunts coming from the state of
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  Washington. Me and my wife are are on our
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  way. But tomorrow, early in the
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  morning, we're going to hit the hit the dusty trail and go to go
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  to the Cape for a week. We'll be staying at an Airbnb in
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  Orleans. So I'm very much excited about
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  that. But I'll be working there, don't
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  worry. I'll be spending my days on the
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  beach, you know, eating seafood, clam chowder, lobster rolls and
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  getting a tan. Hopefully a shark doesn't bite
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  my leg off. But I will still be writing
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  sharp reports. And I don't, I think I'll do
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  podcasts. We'll see.
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  It's always tough when everyone's like, yeah, we're
• 4:30
  going out to dinner and I'm like, oh, I got to do a pod.
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  They're like, screw your pod, you can do it later.
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  So I hope to have some podcasts. But if there's a day you don't
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  see one, know that I've been, you know, peer pressured by my
• 4:41
  family to to lay off work a bit. But you will still get the sharp
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  reports every day that I write for visen.com.
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  And if you follow the the best bet picks on the juice trail
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  app, I'll still be posting there as well.
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  So I'm excited and it's always the always look forward to it
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  because it means like the last chance to catch your breath and
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  get ready for the big football season.
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  Re energize the batteries. But anyway, guys, 3 pack of
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  baseball plays for today and two college plays for tomorrow.
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  That's what we'll be talking about on today's pod.
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  Now looking back toward yesterday, frustrating day O and
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  2 -, 2 units. Orioles sharp move got their
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  faces ripped off. That wasn't fun.
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  Tampa Bay Saint Louis sharp his attack under 8 1/2.
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  I think that thing cashed in the over in like the 4th inning.
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  So that was not a great baseball day.
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  You may have had the Padres earlier.
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  That was a juice reel. Best bet for me as well as a
• 5:30
  sharp, sharper board play for recent.com.
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  So maybe if you if you have the pods, you want one and two and
• 5:36
  kind of clawed back a little little bit more than 1/2 unit
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  there. So either way, guys, let's see
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  if we can finish off the week on a hot note as we steam into the
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  first college football weekend of the season.
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  With that being said, let's kick off the pod here talking some
• 5:50
  Major League Baseball and then we'll get to college football.
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  So first bit on the board for me.
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  First play in our three pack, let's go to Philadelphia, City
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  of Brotherly Love, where the Declaration of Independence was
• 6:01
  written in the Constitution. Anyway, Ben Franklin Spot
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  Phillies here hosting the Washington Nationals, 6:45 PM
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  Eastern Time, first pitch setting the stage for this one.
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  The Nats are 52 and 75. They just took two or three.
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  However, against the Mets. They won yesterday's series
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  finale 9 to 3. Came through as a + 115 home
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  dog. You know, all the Phils 74 and
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  53 on the year. They just swept the Mariners.
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  They won that series finale 11 to 2 as a -145 home favorite.
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  So pitching match up here for this one.
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  The Nats are going to go with the ready Cade Cavalli.
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  He's one and O 2.2 O ERA. Meanwhile, the fills are going
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  to go with the fellow ready Taiwan Walker.
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  He's four and six 3.34 ERA. So what do you see across the
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  market here? Well, this game open fills
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  around 8 -, 175 home favorite Washington about a + 155 Rd.
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  dog. What's notable to me is that
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  even though this is a kind of a bit of an expensive price on the
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  fills, pros aren't scared off by that chalk.
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  They've hit Philly steam the Phills up -175 up to -185 some
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  shops even as high as -190 I got Philly at FanDuel -184.
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  Now, aside from the steam on the Phills, I like the splits on
• 7:12
  Philadelphia. If you look at DK right now, 85%
• 7:16
  of money line bets, 89% of money line dollars on Philly.
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  So good Pro and Joe split. Then if you look at Circa over
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  90% of money line bets in dollars on the Phills.
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  So kind of further validation of the big sharp wagers.
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  Pro and Joe also taking the chalk here out in Vegas.
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  Now I do have 7 system matches lit up on Philadelphia here.
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  Some of the best ones when both teams are coming off a win,
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  which is the case here. Take the home team, that system
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  is 91 and 5363 percent, 16% ROI this year, Phillies in
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  particular, 37 and 1769 percent, 8% ROI as a home favorite.
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  That makes them the 4th best home favorite in baseball.
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  When they're favored and getting line movement in their
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  direction. The Phillies are 44 and 1575
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  percent, 16% ROI. That is number one in baseball.
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  So when they're expected to win and they're getting line
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  movement in their favor, they're winning three out of four times.
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  Now Philly also has a rest first tired advantage because the
• 8:16
  Phills were off yesterday. Meanwhile, the Nats played the
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  Mets and then have to travel to Philly in this spot.
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  If you are a rested favorite coming off a day off, those
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  teams are 91 and 4070 percent, 10% ROI.
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  Now I'm going to bank on the Phills offense hopefully getting
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  to Cavalli. Phills are hitting 258 on the
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  year, 156 home runs, 604 runs scored.
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  Nats hitting two 44120 homers, 546 runs scored.
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  Taiwan Walker in particular has pitched very well in the month
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  of August. Knock on wood.
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  Hope that continues. He's got a 1.45 ERA and three
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  August starts. He's only given up 3 earned runs
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  and 18.2 innings pitched. Philly, meanwhile, 40 and 21 at
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  home. Good home team.
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  Washington 26 and 36 on the road.
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  So it's a little expensive, but as always, bet trips first, bet
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  to win. We have a line move, some good
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  split, some good system matches, a rest first.
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  Tired. I'm back in the Phills tonight,
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  guys. I got Philly -184 at FanDuel
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  again. Shop around, A lot of books now
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  around -190 next one for you. Let's look at a 7:10 PM Eastern
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  Time. First pitch, the Toronto Blue
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  Jays visiting the Miami Marlins. Now this interleague matchup, we
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  got the Jays coming in 74 and 54.
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  They did just lose 2 out of three against the Pirates,
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  dropping that series finale 2 to one as a -, 160 Rd. favorite.
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  Meanwhile, the Fish, 60 and 67 on the year, just lost two or
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  three against the Cardinals, but did avoid the sweep.
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  They won that series finale 6 to 2 as a -115 home favorite.
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  So for tonight's opener, we got the Jays going with Shane
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  Bieber. Remember him?
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  He won the Sigh Young a few years ago.
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  He's been injured, but he's making his debut after the Jays
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  picked him up at the deadline. Marlins, meanwhile, going out
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  with ready Ryan Gusto 7 and five 4.89 ERA.
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  So we're just seeing across the market here.
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  Well, Toronto opened around a - 155 Rd. favorite Miami around a
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  + 135 home dog. And what's notable to me is that
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  even though Bieber is a bit of a, you know, question mark, it's
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  his first start this season. New team smart money is backing
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  Bieber. We've seen the Jays go from -155
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  up to -165 some shops even as high as -170 -. 175 Now.
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  I jumped on the Jays -160 at Bet MGM little bit earlier today,
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  which again, if you get those best bets from Juice Rail $4.99
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  a week, you would have gotten that 160 Looks like your best
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  price. Now if you want to play the Jays
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  with me is at FanDuel around -168 but aside from the line
• 10:54
  move, you'll get the splits pretty good on the Jays. 82%
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  bets over 90% of the money at DraftKings.
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  So good low bets, higher dollar split.
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  You would have Toronto with that interleague favorite value, so
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  lack of familiarity obviously benefiting quote UN quote that
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  better team. You would also have a
• 11:11
  correlative betting play, so favorite low total told this one
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  is 8. So fair amount of expected run
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  scored also typically benefits the better team.
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  If you're a road favorite off a loss, getting some steam in your
• 11:24
  favor, so you're getting at least $0.05 of line movement,
• 11:27
  that's it. That system match is 68 and
• 11:30
  4162% with a 5% ROI. This year you also have a rested
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  favorite system match. Both these teams were off
• 11:40
  yesterday, but rested favorites coming off a day off 91 and 4070
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  percent, 10% ROI. And if they're -150 or more,
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  which matches here with Toronto, they are 58 and 1876 percent,
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  14% ROI. Jays bats.
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  I don't know if Guerrero was going to play in this one or not
• 12:00
  because he was banged up and he missed the last game.
• 12:02
  I hope he's in there. But they do have the better
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  bats. Overall, Toronto's hitting 267
• 12:07
  on the year, 151 home runs, 625 runs scored.
• 12:12
  Miami hitting two 51124 homers, 549 runs scored.
• 12:17
  In particular, Jays have been pretty good on the road.
• 12:20
  They're hitting 265 as a visitor.
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  That's second best in baseball. Miami's only hitting 244 at
• 12:25
  home, That's 21st. And Shane Bieber, obviously,
• 12:29
  again, bit of a wild card, but he made seven rehab appearances
• 12:33
  leading up to his debut tonight, and he posted a 1.86 ERA.
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  So I know it's the minors, but, you know, it's not like he's got
• 12:41
  an ERA of seven. He's pitched pretty well here.
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  Maybe that's part of the reason why we're seeing the steam
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  toward the Jays. So you add it all up here, guys.
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  We got a line move, splits, system matches.
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  I'm going with Toronto. I got a -, 160 at Bet MGM.
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  Again, shop around. Some books as high as -170 -,
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  175 Last bet of the night in Major League Baseball.
• 13:02
  Let's go to Atlanta, where the Braves are hosting the New York
• 13:06
  Mets. 7:15 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
• 13:09
  So coming into this opener, the Mets are 67 and 60.
• 13:13
  Just lost two or three, as we mentioned, against the Nats a
• 13:15
  second ago. Lost that series finale 9 to 3
• 13:19
  as a -135 Rd. favorite. Meanwhile, the Braves, 58 and 69
• 13:23
  on the year, but they've played pretty well recently.
• 13:25
  They just took two or three against the White Sox.
• 13:28
  Remember, he played in the other night with our guy Colston
• 13:30
  hurstep, forgot his name. Something like that.
• 13:33
  But they won one. Nothing that series finale as a
• 13:36
  -185 home favorite pitching match up tonight, the Mets are
• 13:40
  going with the ready Nolan McClain want to know ERA of
• 13:43
  0.00. He was pretty good in his first
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  start his debut Braves meanwhile, going with the lefty
• 13:49
  Joey Wentz. He's four and three with a 4.72
• 13:52
  ERA. So what do you see across the
• 13:55
  market here? Well, this game opened basically
• 13:57
  a pick em around -110 both sides.
• 14:00
  I saw one book that opened slightly like Mets, favored like
• 14:02
  -115 but what's notable to me is that the public is going Mets.
• 14:08
  So if you look at DraftKings right now, 56% of money line
• 14:11
  bets are going Mets. Again.
• 14:12
  Pick em game. Mets have a better record.
• 14:14
  I get it. However, the line isn't moving
• 14:16
  toward the Mets. The lines moving further toward
• 14:18
  Atlanta. Atlanta has gone from a pick em
• 14:22
  up to -115 -, 120. I jumped on Braves -115 at Bet
• 14:27
  MGM. Again, a lot of shops are as
• 14:29
  high as -120, but if slight majority of tickets are on Mets,
• 14:34
  why aren't the Mets up to -120? No, it's going toward Atlanta.
• 14:37
  So I'm going to back the Braves in this spot.
• 14:39
  They do have a little bit of reverse line movement.
• 14:42
  Again, public Mets get line going to Braves.
• 14:45
  If you look over at Circa, though, only half the tickets
• 14:47
  are on the Braves, but 2/3 of the money is on Atlanta.
• 14:51
  So you do have that low bets, higher dollar split out in the
• 14:53
  desert. And then I also have 5 system
• 14:56
  matches on the Braves. Short home favorites -140 or
• 14:59
  less off a win with a line move. They're 56 and 3661 percent, 10%
• 15:05
  ROI since July 1st. You also look at short home
• 15:09
  favorites -140 or less with a sub 500 record, playing an
• 15:13
  opponent with an above 500 record.
• 15:15
  Kind of a fishy buy low sell high spot.
• 15:17
  That's 55 and 4157 percent, 4% ROI.
• 15:22
  If you look at the Braves in the spot, they also have a low bets,
• 15:28
  not a low bets high dollar split, but a rest first tired
• 15:30
  advantage. So if you look at in the
• 15:32
  situation, rest first tired, the Braves were were off yesterday
• 15:39
  and the Mets had to play the Nats.
• 15:42
  So rest at home favorites in a, in a, in a buy low, sell high
• 15:46
  play in a lot of ways coming off a day off, they're 71 and 2971
• 15:51
  percent, 11% ROI. Wentz also, his numbers aren't
• 15:56
  amazing, but he has pitched well.
• 15:57
  His last two starts. He's only given up two earned
• 15:59
  runs and 11.1 innings pitched and the Braves won both of those
• 16:02
  games. The Mets against lefties this
• 16:05
  year, hitting 2/27. That ranks 24th in baseball.
• 16:09
  The Met. The Braves have had the Mets
• 16:11
  number this year. They're seven and three against
• 16:13
  New York, NY. So hopefully that continues
• 16:15
  tonight. And even though the Braves are
• 16:17
  not amazing at home, they are above 532 and 31.
• 16:20
  The Mets, however, 26 and 36 on the road.
• 16:24
  And a little cherry on top, if you want to sweat the Braves
• 16:26
  with me, I popped open the Juice Reel app and we have a 15% sharp
• 16:31
  mush edge in favor of Atlanta. So pick em game the lines move
• 16:36
  toward Atlanta even though Publix on the Mets sharp mush
• 16:39
  edge. Rest first.
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  Tired. I'm giving the Braves a shot
• 16:42
  tonight. Guys.
• 16:43
  I got a -, 115 at Bet MGM. Shop around some books now or
• 16:47
  most books as high as -120 So Phil's Jays and Braves can we
• 16:52
  get 2 out of three finish off our off our week hopefully on a
• 16:56
  high note. Now what you've all been waiting
• 16:59
  for the ability to talk college football because college
• 17:03
  football is back, baby, what you love to see.
• 17:06
  So going toward tomorrow, I have two plays for you.
• 17:11
  The first play, let's talk about Iowa State and Kansas State, 2
• 17:15
  ranked teams games going to be played over in Ireland.
• 17:18
  So I'm sure people be drinking their Guinness, getting fired up
• 17:20
  for this one, getting their bangers and mashed.
• 17:23
  But it's a noon kick off and this one is interesting to me
• 17:26
  for a couple reasons. One, let's look at line
• 17:29
  movement. This game opened K state -3 1/2.
• 17:33
  So basically again, favored by 3 1/2 on a neutral site.
• 17:37
  Now the public is on Kansas State.
• 17:40
  If you look right now, excuse me, at DraftKings, 64% of spread
• 17:45
  bets are laying the points with K State.
• 17:47
  They think K State's going to win by four or more, K State by
• 17:51
  double digits. K State's going to roll.
• 17:53
  However, even though three out of or two out of three bets, 2/3
• 17:57
  of bets are on K State. K State isn't up to -4 -, 4 and
• 18:01
  half -5 No, this, this line is dropped mostly across the market
• 18:05
  down to three. So if Publix K State, why is
• 18:09
  that 3 and half down to three tells me we have a reverse line
• 18:13
  move play on Iowa State. Iowa State is your #1 contrarian
• 18:17
  play tomorrow. It's the most heavily back game
• 18:19
  of the day. It's the first game of the
• 18:21
  entire college football season, and the public is on K State.
• 18:24
  So even if you didn't have that sharp move, 3 1/2 down to three
• 18:28
  toward Iowa State, this would be a pure contrarian play.
• 18:31
  Bet against the masses, bet against the public, but bet
• 18:34
  against the drunk guys pounding their Guinness with their car
• 18:36
  bombs at the bar. You also look at a conference
• 18:40
  dog angle. So kind of that familiarity
• 18:42
  aspect typically levels the playing field, benefits the dog
• 18:45
  getting some points. The important thing here,
• 18:48
  though, is if you're playing Iowa State with me, you got to
• 18:51
  get the hook. You got to get the 3 1/2.
• 18:53
  Again, now that we're getting football back in our lives, we
• 18:55
  got to really be focused on key numbers, getting on or off a key
• 18:58
  number. If you're on a dog around a key
• 19:00
  number, you got to get the hook. If you're on the favorite, you
• 19:02
  got to get the, you know, the 2 1/2, the 6 1/2 below that key
• 19:06
  number because 3 is the most common key number in football
• 19:09
  because the field goal is the most common method of scoring.
• 19:12
  Obviously you get 6 six and a half 77 key number there with
• 19:16
  the touchdown, but you are getting a hook available at at
• 19:20
  least one book. Pretty much every book is at 3.
• 19:23
  But I found Iowa State plus 3 1/2 -, 114 at FanDuel.
• 19:29
  So again, you got to shop around.
• 19:31
  You need that hook. But the Publix on K State yet
• 19:34
  line is dropped toward Iowa State.
• 19:35
  They're contrarian and heavily that game.
• 19:38
  Little little little cherry on top here as well.
• 19:40
  I popped open the Juice Real app.
• 19:42
  There's a 37% sharp mush edge on on Iowa State here.
• 19:48
  So the cyclones are getting again, a vast majority of
• 19:51
  respected money from those of you who have downloaded juice
• 19:54
  rail and have a winning record and and like Iowa State here.
• 19:58
  So that's my first bet of the year, guys, I'll be I'll be
• 20:01
  driving to maybe I'll even be on the Cape with my feet in the in
• 20:05
  the sand getting ready for my lobster roll.
• 20:08
  But that's my first bet of the year.
• 20:09
  I'm going Iowa State plus 3 1/2. A sharp contrarian play again.
• 20:14
  Got to get the hook. My other play, Stanford and
• 20:17
  Hawaii. Now you guys know me or if you
• 20:20
  don't that's OK too. But one of my favorite system
• 20:23
  matches is dog to fave line movement.
• 20:24
  When you open as a dog getting points, you flip to a favorite
• 20:28
  laying points. One of the big reasons I like
• 20:30
  this so much is it takes a lot of respected money to flip a dog
• 20:33
  to a favorite. And that's exactly what we're
• 20:36
  getting for Stanford. Hawaii.
• 20:38
  Now this game open Stanford -2 1/2 on the road, it's flipped to
• 20:42
  Hawaii -2 1/2 at home. So right off the bat tells me we
• 20:47
  got a lot of money pouring in on Hawaii causing that dog to fave
• 20:51
  line move. Now if we look at the splits on
• 20:53
  Hawaii right now at DraftKings on the spread, 52% bets, so
• 20:59
  public really doesn't know what to do, but 86% of the money is
• 21:03
  on Hawaii. Then we go look at circa 82% of
• 21:07
  spread bets, 98% of money is on Hawaii.
• 21:10
  So we got a dog to fave line move.
• 21:13
  We also have kind of the idea of, you know, travel home field.
• 21:16
  You know, traveling to Hawaii isn't like, you know, going from
• 21:19
  Chicago to to New York. It it's different.
• 21:22
  So maybe you got a little bit of an extra home field advantage
• 21:25
  here. But both DraftKings and FanDuel
• 21:27
  have a really good split low bets, higher dollars in favor of
• 21:30
  Hawaii, which is the same direction the line is moving.
• 21:33
  Now, if you know me, you know this.
• 21:35
  If you don't, you don't. That's OK too, as I just
• 21:36
  mentioned, but I always money line short favorites.
• 21:41
  A lot of times you're going to see in college basketball, you
• 21:43
  know, you lay a 2 1/2, there's a foul at the end, you lose, you
• 21:47
  win by two, you would have lost your two and a half.
• 21:49
  Well, college you can get safeties missed extra points.
• 21:53
  Obviously this was a 2 1/2 dog to fave.
• 21:56
  Odds makers are kind of telling you it could be a very short,
• 21:59
  short margin of victory. It could be a very close game.
• 22:02
  So I am not laying 2 1/2 with Hawaii.
• 22:05
  I'm on the Hawaii money line. I would hate to see Hawaii win,
• 22:09
  you know, 2725, you lose because you'll lay the 2 1/2.
• 22:13
  So I got Hawaii on the money line at -125 at FanDuel.
• 22:19
  That's the best price. Again, shop around.
• 22:21
  A lot of books are -130 -, 140. But if you look at the splits on
• 22:25
  the money line, Hawaii's getting 41% of bets, 64% of money at
• 22:30
  DraftKings. And listen to this at circa 80%
• 22:33
  of bets, 99% of money on the Hawaii money line.
• 22:38
  So again, you might say, hey, save the juice, lay the 2 1/2 at
• 22:42
  -110 -, 115. But anytime you lay a 2 1/2,
• 22:46
  they win by one or two and you get clipped and you lost when
• 22:49
  you would have won if you just pointed up a few more cents of
• 22:52
  juice. That's something that I always
• 22:54
  remember. So money lining short favorites
• 22:56
  is always, always my preference. But either way, guys, I'm
• 22:59
  rooting for Hawaii to win this game.
• 23:01
  Let's hope they cover if you do lay the 2 1/2.
• 23:03
  But I'm on the Hawaii money line -125 at FanDuel dog to fave
• 23:08
  baby. So Iowa State plus 3 1/2 money
• 23:12
  line -125 Hawaii. So that about does it for
• 23:15
  episode 342 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
• 23:20
  powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 23:22
  where we wrap things up. And I always start first by
• 23:24
  saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
• 23:27
  out of your day, out of your busy lives.
• 23:29
  We got a lot going on. You know, my nieces are getting
• 23:32
  ready to go back to school. You know, it's getting a little
• 23:34
  cooler. Thank God I couldn't deal with
• 23:36
  the heat this summer. Pretty soon.
• 23:38
  You know what, I went to CVS last night.
• 23:41
  They already got Halloween candy that they're selling.
• 23:43
  So you kind of know that football season is in the air.
• 23:46
  But anyway, guys, if you are listening and enjoy the pod, you
• 23:49
  look forward to the insights. Hopefully you value the
• 23:51
  information. Could you please help me grow
• 23:54
  the pod by doing a simple, easy thing?
• 23:56
  Just give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or
• 23:59
  iTunes. If you want to click the follow
• 24:02
  button, recommend the pod to a friend or leave a nice comment
• 24:05
  under the review section. I'd very much appreciate that as
• 24:08
  well. Next, if you enjoy the style of
• 24:11
  betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting,
• 24:14
  focusing on line movement, number splits, percentages, not
• 24:17
  our innate biases, which again, you bet with gut *NSYNC bias.
• 24:21
  You might win here or there, but you're going to lose long term.
• 24:24
  So if you have come to value, you know, monitoring the market,
• 24:28
  maybe you've learned a thing or two from listening to the pod.
• 24:31
  You want to learn more about data-driven betting Or maybe you
• 24:33
  have someone in your life who loves to bet on sports, loses a
• 24:36
  lot. Partly is everything that's
• 24:38
  based on gut instinct. Or maybe there's someone who is,
• 24:41
  you know, new to betting and really doesn't know how to
• 24:44
  begin, doesn't even know and it's not their fault, doesn't
• 24:46
  know what the spread is versus the total versus the money line.
• 24:49
  Well, guess what? I have two books that are love
• 24:52
  for you guys to buy. Go to Amazon.com, type in the
• 24:55
  NFL Sharp betting playbook. Also type in the everything
• 24:59
  guide to sports betting. Those are my 2 babies.
• 25:02
  The NFL Sharp Betting playbook still #1 new release on Amazon,
• 25:05
  so I'm very proud of that. But if you'd like to pick up a
• 25:08
  copy of one or the other or both, you would make my day and
• 25:13
  I will sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer, I'll meet
• 25:15
  you at the sports book, and we'll sweat some some college
• 25:18
  football together this weekend. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
• 25:21
  and Juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
• 25:23
  apps Download Rhythm. We had our first Rhythm rundown
• 25:27
  show last night, which I had a lot of fun with.
• 25:29
  If you do want to give Rhythm a shot, here's a promo code 25%
• 25:33
  off start 25. Just type in start 25 for 25%
• 25:38
  off. But Rhythm great for their AI
• 25:40
  backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
• 25:43
  They have NFL predictions available.
• 25:46
  You also have college football available.
• 25:49
  So I'm really excited about that.
• 25:50
  And then also download Juice Reel.
• 25:53
  This pod is free if you want to support the pod 5 bucks a week
• 25:57
  you can sign up to get the all systems go best bet picks on
• 26:00
  juicerail. You'll also get the robo Jackson
• 26:02
  best bet picks the sharp mush indicators.
• 26:04
  The arbitrage plays the shop for the best line futures all
• 26:08
  available when you download juice reel.
• 26:10
  So download juice reel, download rhythm, give them a five star
• 26:13
  review in the App Store. Next, do you have a live odds
• 26:16
  page? If you don't, you need one.
• 26:18
  It's so important. You got to be able to track the
• 26:20
  market. What are the line open at?
• 26:22
  What's the current price? Which direction did it move?
• 26:24
  How much did it move? Pull up the line history, see
• 26:26
  all the moves in between? Was there a point where you know
• 26:30
  you're seeing it open 2 1/2? It's still 2 1/2, but maybe it
• 26:32
  went up to three and came back down or went down to 2 and came
• 26:35
  back up. Those are the little things that
• 26:37
  you're going to need to kind of paint the picture of what you're
• 26:41
  seeing across the market. Also identifying Steam, you
• 26:45
  know, picking off the better prices.
• 26:46
  Like for example that Iowa State game I was looking at my odds
• 26:49
  logic page every books at 3 but FanDuel was 3 1/2.
• 26:54
  So just those little things can be very very helpful because we
• 26:57
  all know the margin of victory is is thin and they will edge
• 27:01
  especially getting the best price can really make a
• 27:03
  difference. So if you need a live odds page
• 27:06
  you should try out odds logic. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
• 27:12
  123 and you'll get a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first
• 27:16
  month of service. So that about does it for
• 27:18
  episode 342 of the ASG Pod. As always, powered by Rhythm.
• 27:23
  I'll leave with two final thoughts.
• 27:24
  Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
• 27:28
  Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
• 27:30
  Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge
• 27:33
  Park, Casino, MGM Springfield, the Nash, or of course out in
• 27:37
  the desert where the true grinders get down.
• 27:39
  Where Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest juice
• 27:42
  possible is found at the South Point or Sweat and Sharp
• 27:44
  Contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool when you catch
• 27:48
  a big ticket at circa or or anywhere in Vegas for that
• 27:52
  matter. However, maybe you're going to
• 27:54
  walk up to me Orioles and the Rays under RIP those things up.
• 27:57
  What what pathetic. Both of those just disgusting.
• 28:01
  But maybe you played the Padres earlier in the day.
• 28:03
  Show me a pods ticket. First one's on me next one's on
• 28:06
  you. We'll post about the book.
• 28:07
  Hopefully sweat some winters in in baseball and college football
• 28:10
  for tomorrow. So as always, guys, O and two,
• 28:13
  two and O, 1 and 2, two and one, three and OO and three again,
• 28:17
  off a great day, a terrible day. Whether we're hot, whether we're
• 28:21
  cold, whenever, as good as we think when we're hot, whenever,
• 28:24
  as bad as we think when we're cold, Always remember that
• 28:26
  you're always somewhere in between.
• 28:28
  So if we can stick to that model and that blueprint, again, we
• 28:31
  don't have to bet every game. We just got to search for the
• 28:33
  games that fit our model against the public, with the house, with
• 28:36
  the pros flatbed, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
• 28:39
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
• 28:42
  So have a great Friday night. Everybody have an even better
• 28:45
  weekend. I'm off to Cape Cod for a week.
• 28:48
  Very much looking forward to that.
• 28:50
  But get ready because it's about to get crazy up in here with
• 28:53
  college football and NFL returning.
• 28:55
  But as always, guys, I will see you back on Monday.
• 28:58
  I believe I'll see you again. I don't know if I'm doing pods
• 29:01
  while I'm on the Cape, but either way, you can follow me on
• 29:04
  Twitter at Josh under Score Insights for the sharp reports
• 29:07
  that I'll write every day for visa.com and again, follow on
• 29:10
  Juice Reel, the ASG under score podcast plays.
• 29:15
  You can get them there as well. But have a great Friday,
• 29:17
  everybody have an even better weekend and I'll see you
• 29:21
  sometime next week. I don't know when, but I'll see
• 29:23
  you soon, guys. I'll talk to you later.
• 29:25
  Take care.