Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Wild Seasons End, Wild Playoffs Begin | NFL Wild Card Weekend

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Wild Seasons End, Wild Playoffs Begin | NFL Wild Card Weekend · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, back
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: at it on this Tuesday morning. The first Lady of
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: the pod, Kendri Middleton, is with us. The Prime Minister
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: of DJEN Nation, Stucky is here. And on today's episode,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: we plant the flag for the wild Card round of
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: the NFL Playoffs. The postseason is here. I am fired up.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I know all of you are as well. Kendrick's deepest
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: thoughts are coming our way on this podcast, and of
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: course the main event Evans Tuesday Primer. If you thought
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: this season was bizarre, it's because it was. This is
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: straight from the primer. I recommend that before you place
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: any wagers, you go and read through this thing thoroughly.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: One preseason division favorite ended up on it was the Eagles.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: The fewest that we've seen since two thousand and eight.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Two teams with win totals of eleven plus before the
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: season missed the playoffs entirely, the Chiefs and the Ravens.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: It's the first time that's happened since the year two thousand.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: We have made it to the most unpredictable, postseason imaginable,
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: putting everyone on the spot here that is on this
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: podcast to open up the show. If your life depended
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: on it, who would you bet? Or perhaps you have
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: already to win the Super Bowl this year, Kendra your go.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: I don't think anybody's going to be surprised with my answer.
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: Actually some people might be.
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: It.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: People probably expecting me to say the Jags, but I'm
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: gonna say the Rams. Matt Stafford, absolute beast, he's got
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: the weapons, give me tight pants, Sean McVay any day.
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: I think that that's the best option here.
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: Whoever comes out of the NFC I think is going
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: to wind up winning the Super Bowl, But I'm going
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: to go with the quarterback with the most experienced left
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: in the game in such a way weird postseason stucky.
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'd probably go the Rams, and they have to
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: play three road games most likely, but I have empower
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: rated number one. The first game they should win. I mean,
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: it's not that tough playing at Carolina and then what,
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: I just don't trust the Eagles offense. They have the
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: fewest flaws in my opinion. So if my life depended
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: on it, that's probably who I would go with the
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: AFC is completely wide open. I mean, the entire playoffs
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: is clearly wide open. But if I had to, if
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: my life is on the line, I'd go the team
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: I have power at a number one, which is the Rams.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: Do we think the MVP thing changes anything though, like
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: the curse of getting the MVP and not being able
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: to win the Super Bowl? I think Mahomes was the
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: last person to do it in twenty nineteen. It see
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: the only person. That might be a question for Evan,
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: but that's been a hot topic of conversation around here.
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how much reality is baked
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: into that, but it does seem like the guy that
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: wins the MVP typically wins it because he's putting the
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: team on his back, and that's not a Super Bowl formula.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: You have to have the best team, not the best quarterback.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: With that said, I think if my life was on
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: the line, I don't know that I could actually stomach
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: making it through the postseason waiting until I croak because
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: the team lost, So I would I would just take
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the Bills and back Josh Allen and the team that's
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: been waiting to break through that of all of these teams,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: there's one that feels like if not now then than never.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: For how they're constructed and how great Josh Allen is.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: He's the best quarterback in the postseason period, so I
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: think I would just back him. And mind you, I
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: still might end up betting the Jags, So it would
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: just be like, either take me all the way or
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: just off me a wild card weekend.
• 4:02
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: It's just a matter of if the Jaguars game plan
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: properly and decide to run the ball in a fishient amount,
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: because that's what concerns me is that you know that
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: one if they get the run game going, they are
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: one of the.
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: Best offenses in the NFL.
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: It's just a it's just a matter of if that's
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: what they're going to do against a bad run defense.
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: That's what makes me nervous.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: To Stucky's point, he said that he's picking the Rams
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: because they're the least flawed team. I think there's not
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: a team that is in the postseason that doesn't have
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: glaring flaws. I mean, even the Rams. The Rams have
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: not been good in the last couple of weeks of
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: the season, not nearly as good as their standard and
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: their special teams as a disaster. So all of these
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: teams have problems. So I would just sell. I would
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: just say, if my life was on the line, there's
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: give me Josh Allen. I'll just ride the coattails of
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen. See what happens. We have a lot of
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: bets to get to. We have a lot of different
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: angles to talk about. Let's talk about something that happened
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: on Sunday Night football. How about the bookend to this
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: season for the Baltimore Ravens. Up by fifteen in the
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: final few minutes of the first Sunday night football game
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: of the season against Buffalo, they blow it. They lose
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: by one. And then the last Sunday Night football game
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: of the season, they allow Aaron Rodgers without dk Metcalf
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: to throw for eleven to fourteen one hundred and thirty
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: three yards in a touchdown in the fourth quarter. They
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: lose the game on a missed field goal hearts out
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: to Tyler Loop. The Ravens finished with the second worst
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: ats record in the NFL at six and eleven against
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: the closing line stucky, what is next for your star
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: quarterback Lamar Jackson.
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: I had no idea, but I think that the defense led.
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: You know, the defensive performance the fourth quarter was directly
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: correlated to I mean one of the players it was.
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: The Steelers field is absolute garbage. He had Ousi a
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: fall down on one of the plays, but Kyle Hamilton
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: getting hurt was I tweeted it out as soon as
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: it happened. That's a death blow for that defense. I
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: can't get any pressure. That's the number one thing they
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: have to address. They all season. They got to. They
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: have to address their lack of pressure off of the edge.
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: But Kyle Hamilton has arguably the most valuable player in
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: the league on the defensive side of the ball. He
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: they allowed three point seven yards per play before he
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: went out, six point a after he left. He does
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: so much for them. I mean, I know that everyone
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: knows that he's good, but if like just the amount
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: of things that they do with him. He basically plays
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: the linebacker at all pro level, that's he's basically moved
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: to like almost that you know, fifty to sixty percent
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: of the time he's playing linebacker in the box. Does
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: so many different things for him. That was an enormous
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: loss in that game. And then the coaching, like you
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: cannot settle. That's the hardest stadium the NFL to kick at.
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: I said it right away. I was like, you can't.
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: You have to go get more yards here, even if
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: you just try to run for three or four yards
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: going backwards taking a knee was coaching malpractice in my opinion.
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: So it might be time. Hardball I think has done
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: a great job overall in Baltimore, but it just might
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: be time for a new voice and a change for both.
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: So yeah, it was disappointing because if the Raves got
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: in they could have made a run. That's how wide
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: open the AFC is. So yeah, congrats to the Steelers
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: for getting it done. But I thought the coaching. The
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: Hamilton injury was massive, and I felt bad for Luke,
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: but just putting it on like a young kicker in
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: that stadium without trying to get any more yards at
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: fourteen seconds in a timeout was awful. But yeah, just
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: the Raves have had some heartbreaking ends to seasons in
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: recent years, and that is added to the list.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, the script writers nailed this one, Kendra. When
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: you look at the way the season started and then
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: the way that it ended. Sunday Night football for the
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Ravens got us off to this tremendous start to a
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: wildly unpredictable season. The Ravens were off, and then to
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: end the season that way, it was just I.
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: Have something crazier than I've been looking at the last
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: twenty four hours. The Patriots missed the one seed because
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: the first game of their season they lost to the
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: Las Vegas Raiders, who now have the first pick in
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: the NFL Draft. They missed the one seed because they
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: lost to the mother freaking Raiders.
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: Think about that, as.
• 8:45
  Speaker 5: Said it yourself, I think that's a first in this
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: podcast history.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: So dude, how nuts is that?
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: Like?
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: That's crazy?
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: That is crazy.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Honestly, when you go back and look at some of
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: the weird things that happened in Week one, baiting just
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: not even using that as a reference point to the
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: rest of the season. You know, let's have fun, let's
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: celebrate Week one. I'm not sure how much any of
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: it actually matters. What we see these teams are, they're
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: some of which are gelling for the first time. They
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: haven't played in months. Nobody plays in the preseason extensively anymore.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Week one of the NFL season, as as time goes on,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: I will value that week less and less and it's
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: a note that I will document in my trusty notepad
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: here for next season. I just I think week one
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: throws us all for a loop because I mean, go
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: back and look at that game the Raiders. If the
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Raiders played the Patriots right now, what would the line
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: be on that put the game on the moon?
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: It would be yeah, exactly, not even close.
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: Stuck you, how do you value that?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: As far as looking back at the way that we
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: and the way that we analyze week one, it would
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: be be best for those that try and generate our
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: own numbers to just punt what you see in the
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: first week of the season.
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: No, I mean I wouldn't punt on it. It's a
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: data point. But like weird things happen every week in
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: the NFL. Maybe it's there's a little more of arrands
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: in week one because of the preseason. But I mean
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: you can go, I'll pull up I mean, look, I'll
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: just I'll go to the NFL. Let's go to NFL
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: scoreboard on the Action app, and I'll pick a random week.
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: Let's go week twelve. So Week twelve, this is when
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: the Lions went to overtime with the Giants, the Jaguars
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: went to overtime with the Cardinals. The Cowboys beat the Eagles.
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: Like this, this is this is the NFL. Every single
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: week you're gonna have I mean, think about the Falcons.
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: The Jets came the first team in NFL history to
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: lose the five straight games by twenty three or more points.
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: I think their last five games is lost by twenty
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: four to twenty eight, twenty seven, thirty one and twenty
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: eight something like that. The week before that they beat
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: the Falcons, and if the Falcons would have won that game,
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: they would have won their division. So like the Jets
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: beating the Fed, there's just weird things that that happen
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: in the NFL. So I mean, you never want to overreact.
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: I think there's a little more weirdness to Week.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: One, but it was only really yeah, two upsets though,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: Like it was the Vegas game and then the only
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: other one that you could call an upset, which looking
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: back at the rest of the season now the Chargers
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: beat the Chiefs in Brazil. Those are literally the only
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: two upsets. So the Patrios truly were the only team
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: to fumble as of like favorite in Week one.
• 11:51
  Speaker 5: And that Chargers one.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, good was that the Chargers game in hindsight
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: isn't even an upset.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying. It's like the Chargers.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the Chargers will be favored against the Chiefs right
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: obviously now with the Ludicon, but I mean even with
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: my homes go ahead, Stucky.
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: Uh yeah, I mean the next week, Jake Browning let
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: a huge comeback against the Jags. So looking back at that,
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: that's pretty funny. So yeah, we weird things happen. But
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: I will say that the Patriots, I mean, if you
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: look I played, it's not people I plant the flag game,
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: but I played the Chargers plus three and a half.
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: I ran my numbers. I'm just I'm slightly blowed free.
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: The Chargers this weekend.
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: Patriots, of course, you know I mean that that that
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: Week one game, This is it. I haven't seen this
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: go around much on a lot of NFL playoffs get
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: covered so extensive. That Week one game against Gino Smith
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: was the last time the Patriots didn't face a backup
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: quarter Week one. I'm kidding, but they've they here are
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: the quarterbacks that they faced this year. So they lost
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: to Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers at home. So they
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: faced they only faced one team with a winning record
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: all year. That's it. It was the Bills, and they
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: spill them one.
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: Dard had Jackson.
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: Dart had more wins against teams above five hundred than
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: Drake May this year.
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: But they they faced I saw, I got ta tweet this.
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: I think this was a good context because if you look,
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: they had fourteen wins, eleven came against either backups, benched quarterbacks,
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: or rookies. Sixty percent of their snaps came against you know,
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: bottom tier quarterbacks, rookies or backups. The charters, on the
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: other hand, only like twenty eight percent of their snaps,
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: So the Patriots had almost double the amount of snaps
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: against like bottom tier quarterbacks. I mean, you're talking Tua
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: who was benched. Rattler. So they faced the st the
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: Saints with Rattler Ward Gabriel, They faced the Browns with Gabriel,
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: They faced the Bengals with Flacco, the Ravens, the Markets
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: hurt after twelve plays. They face Huntley Pennix Baker when
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: he turned back into a pumpkin, and they also were
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: missing all the rest of their offense fields Yours and
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: they sat everyone Dart Cook like it goes on and on.
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: So the other thing, the Chargers do a good job
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: preventing explosive passing plays. You need to do that against
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: the Patriots. The Patriots have also been pretty lucky, like
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: twenty fumbles, only lost eight. They've recovered nine of fourteen.
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: They're eighteen fourth down the one point three EPA per
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: play on fourth down, and their opponents are ten of
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: thirty negative points sixty three EPA pri play on fourth downs.
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: Their opponents have gone and then May has gotten away.
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: He's been tremendous, should be the MVP in my opinion,
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: but he's gotten away with some throws. He has the
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: eighteen turner worthy plays in the year only eight interceptions.
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: And this is I think this there is some validity
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: to an experienced quarterback taking on a quarterback making their
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: first playoff start. I mean, if you look historically those
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: the quarterbacks making their first start. I think I have
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: the numbers here. It is the thirty one percent against
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: the spread. Depending on how you cut it, you can
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: remove rookies, you could include rookies. I mean, it's been
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: Horendous and Herbert twelve two and one when catching over
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: a field goal. But he has playoff experience. May does not.
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: There could be some nerves. I do think that has
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: some value.
• 15:42
  Speaker 6: I think the.
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: Chargers will make the Patriots drive the field mintor will
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: throw some different looks at May. I think he might
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: make a mistake or two here and then in the
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: red zone. That's when the Charters have been elite. The
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: forty five percent touchdown percentage this year, that's fourth in
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: the league. Last year on their minter they were forty
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: five percent, which was second the league, and the Patriots
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: redsman defense horrendous thirtieth in the league, and they played
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: a clown schedule. So the Chargers offense, which can get
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: bottled up at times inside of twenty, they might be
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: able to finish off your eyes here. So I just
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: don't think that this line should be over three. So yeah,
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: give me, give me the Chargers catching over a field goal.
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: But I do think that there there is some signal
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: with these quarterbacks who have playoff experience versus ones making
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: the first one. That doesn't mean Drake make won't be
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: incredible and can't win this game, but I do think
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: that there is something to that, and I.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: Just don't maybe that Herbert is like terrible and massive moments.
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: So, I mean, what's the the sample size is so
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: small and it's like one of those things where like
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: everyone says this this, this coach can't win it all,
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: this quarterback can't win it all until they do.
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: He was bad in big moments in college. He obviously
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: blew that lead to the JAG. I just worry about
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: him having a negative clutch gene.
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: But what does play in their favor?
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: I think outside of the forty nine ers, the Patriots
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: are probably the most hurt team in this postseason.
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: Does anybody disagree with that or have like a.
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: Different forty nine ers by a mile?
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: I said, other than the forty nine ers.
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: Oh okay, then the I would argue, maybe the package
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: it's not listening the Packers for impact through.
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: I literally go other than the forty nine ers.
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: Fact, I would maybe you say that the Packers because
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: of Parsons impact.
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's a good shout.
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: Craft you know they have they have a lot of
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: other injuries. But yeah, I mean the Chargers also basically
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: they they basically didn't play any backups. They played like
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: the Commanders and the Colts. And they're fully healthy. They
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: played six playoff teams, they played a much tougher schedule,
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: So the Patriots are hard to rate because of that schedule, Right,
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: you have to give them credit for taking for going
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: out and destroying a lot of these teams.
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: And handling the last time their schedule was this bad,
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: they won the Super Bowl, though, yeah.
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: It doesn't mean they care with the Super Bowl. But
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: I just don't think there's I mean, if you did
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: from a DVA perspective before, you have to remove Week
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: eighteen because the Chargers sat everyone. Yeah, prior to Week eighteen.
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: I mean, the Pats were fifteenth THEBOA and I think
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: the Charters were sixteenth. Like, I just don't think there's
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: that much of a difference between these two teams. And
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: the Pats don't get elite pressure, which might provide a
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: little relief for Herbert behind that very broken offensive line,
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: which is the concern of mine, a huge concern on
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: the road with the state of that offensive line. But
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: I also don't think that it's meaningless that the Charters
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: got to buy last week. So this is late in
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: the season, right, and the Patriots didn't. They tried in
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: that game, and I think rightfully so, but there's there's
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: some I think there's more value late in the year
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: after a full schedule of resting, prepping for your potential opponent,
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: and ensuring full health. And Kendrick's right, we'll see on
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: some of these these injuries, especially on the defensive side
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: of the ball for the Patriots, and how healthy they are.
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I think over three, I think this line
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: should just be three. So I took a three and
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: a half.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: We might have ourselves a nice little community bet here.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: The Chargers plus three and a half do feel like
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: the right side. Stucky laid out all of the points
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: for why the Patriots defense could be overrated. How about
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: the other side. The Patriots have not faced a top
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: ten defense on their schedule since Week eight against the
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. It has been since pre Halloween that we
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: have seen the Patriots truly tested in terms of their
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: offensive output.
• 19:51
  Speaker 5: So they're getting it in terms.
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: Of Browns who are not the same defense as well.
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: Well, I'm Stucky.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: I can't say for me, I say anything. I'm just
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: like I hope that they win so that I don't
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: have to go anywhere else next week. At this point,
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: I'm like, I could stay home cool.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, guys, that three in the hook. Both things
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: can be true here. We can have the Patriots. Patriots
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: could go on and win the Super Bowl and not
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: cover this line, So it's very possible. I do think
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: we've got ourselves a nice little handhold here on the
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: LA Chargers. One other note for the wild card games
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: before we get into the deepest, darkest recesses of Kendrick's mind.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: I made the ghastly mistake the reason why I was
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: stuck on the forty nine Ers being the most injured
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: team going into the postseason. I bet them too early.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: I got drunk on the plus three at even money odds,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: and it is now up to plus four and a half.
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: So we got some.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: News about brock Perty He's dealing with a shoulder issue.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna miss the game or anything,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: but potentially that's moving the number here. Tatum three on defense.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: They're already banged up defense. He's out for the season.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: We're still unclear about Trent Williams. George Kittle's still on
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: the injury report, so is Ricky Pearsall. So obviously I
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: feel awful about the bet that I've made. We will
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: sit and live with it and hopefully this is just
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: one of those instances where AH closing line value, what
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: does it really mean? Obviously I'm not going to be
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: ahead of it there, Kendra, Do you want to talk
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: me off the ledge on this is there?
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: Do you have any love for San Francisco?
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: Why this fuck did you do this?
• 21:34
  Speaker 7: Well?
• 21:34
  Speaker 5: I just told you.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: I got drunk on the plus three team number at
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: even money, and I've been a forty nine ers backer.
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: I rate them highly.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: I think that their offense, if they're able to put
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: up points against Philadelphia, Philly's gonna have a hard time
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: matching that because of how their offense, even against a
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: bad d could get stuck in the mud. So that
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: was the reasoning behind it. Obviously I should have waited
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: plus four and a half, but I'm not gonna bet
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: them twice.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: So it's just somehow you sit here after watching their
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: game the other night where we had multiple, multiple, multiple
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: TV timeouts, commercial timeouts, injury timeouts in that fourth quarter
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: and guys just absolutely having to be like yanked off
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: the field.
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: I don't get how that was a.
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: Bad I mean, I did hand up. That was a mistake.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: I fully admit that, but I was also encouraged by
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: the fact that everybody's just focusing on the fact that
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: they only scored three points or how bad their defense
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: has been. On the year, they held Seattle to thirteen,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: So as bad as their defense has been, it's been
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: better on the road. Philadelphia has not been a they
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: have not been a trustable favorite. But obviously it was
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: a bad bet, so you know, it's hard for me
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: to just hard for.
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: Me to justify it might not be.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: It might it might not be at the results, but
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: right now it is a bet. Yes, it was about
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna because it was a bad idea.
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: My speech on the key numbers, but we won't revisit that.
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: I deserve to hear this again.
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: It wasn't gonna go to two and a half, so
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: you were way better off waiting on this. Trent Williams'
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: status obviously looms large. But yeah, I thought I was
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: gonna be interested in the forty nine ers. I mean
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: four and a half maybe small, but I mean the injury,
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: the injuries. All their linebackers are hurt. I mean they
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: already lost Fred Warner, but Butthune, he's out for the year.
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: De Winters in ankle injury that didn't look good. And
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: then Luke Gifford they're starting Sam he had as a
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: quad injury that they might be without there all there.
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: They already had backup linebackers. It might be without all
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: of them, so we'll see how that goes. I think
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: Pearcell is actually big too, because the one weakness on
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: this Eagles defense is there their cornerback two position. So
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: I think that he could have a big game if
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: he's in there. But if you look at this forty
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: nine ers offense, yeah, they put up some gaudy numbers,
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: but if you dig in, like to end the year,
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: party was red hot. Against the Seahawks, an elite defense
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: three points at home, couldn't do anything. Against the Browns
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: in Cleveland, an elite defense couldn't do anything. They had
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: two hundred and fifty total yards. They averaged three point
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: eight yards per play. Don't be fooled by the final scores.
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: The Browns gifting him a lot of short fields.
• 24:35
  Speaker 6: You know.
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: Against the Panthers they didn't and who were a below
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: average defense, they didn't look great. So like they put
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: up all these numbers on the Colts without any corners
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: the Titans and the Bears with an impoverished defense, and
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: then the Cardinals who had no one left. So I
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: think the forty nine ers offense got a little bit
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: overrated down the stretch. And you know, without Trent Williams,
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: it's not the same unit. They still can't run the ball.
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: And then without their li this might be a game
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: where the Eagles offense can actually get some things going.
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: I don't know. This is like the immovable force meets
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: an unstoppable object. That's the Eagles offense first to forty
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: nine Ers defense.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: I just prefer Rabbits is getting so sadly.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: I've been I've been said well before we started recording,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: I was I I look for opportunities.
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: And this isn't a justification I bet a bad number.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is what it is. But I look
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: for opportunities to bet into lines where I can eliminate
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: the veig I feel for my and this is Major
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: League Baseball betting, NBA betting, NFL betting.
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: College football.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: I have my best chance of profiting in the long
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: term is not paying the books their tax, and so
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: I look for those opportunities on numbers and teams that
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: I like I knew I was gonna be on San
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Francisco when I got the even money at the three.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: You know I that I chose to bite on it.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: So that was the reasoning behind it from a mass perspective.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: But I mean none of that is obviously I would
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: pay up to get the four and a half at
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: this point minus one ten.
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: It's it's just a bad bet.
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, you know your best the best thing
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: you can do to improve your chances to get the
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: best number possible. But I will say that the other
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: thing is Fangio's own Shannan in the past. I mean,
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: Shannan has faced to me there's an offensive coordinator or
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: head coach five times he's yet to clear fifteen points.
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: And like the Fangio defense was, I mean pretty much
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: this version of it was created to slow down and
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: contain everything that the Shanahan offense does. So that's another
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: factor here. I mean, what the the forty nine ers
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: hope here? They do have a huge coaching advantage when
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: it comes to sala versus patula. I mean, you have
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: to attack this forty nine Ers defense over the middle
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: of the field. The Leagles don't really throw the middle
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: field they just throw like a million hitch routes. They
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: it's it's the ugliest offense in the league. So what
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: these for the forty nine ers at the personnel is
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: don't I'm not sure because they cannot get any pressure
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: if they don't have any linebackers left. It's not in
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: the elite corner room. So the hope here for Sala.
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: He's got to throw some you know, simulated pressure, some
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: disguised looks, but what he's mostly gonna do is play
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: a ton of zone. He's gonna play a ton of two.
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: I was gonna keep everything in front of him, and
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: then he's gonna dare the Eagles to finish off drives
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: with touchdowns. They've done that at a leee level. This year.
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: There's seventy percent touchdown percentage in the red zone. Can
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: they maintain that? I don't think so. I mean, last
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: year their offense was way better with a way better
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: coordinator and they were at fifty eight percent. So maybe
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: there's some regression there. But maybe the forty nine Ers
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: defense is just that bad that they continue scoring touchdowns.
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: But that has to be the forty nine Ers game plan.
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: The Eagles offense will go into a shell for extended periods.
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: They'll put themselves in prison and in offense jail, and
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: they won't score for a quarter or two. The other
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: quarter or two, you got to hold in the field
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: goals because this is an elite Eagles defense that I
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: think will contain that forty nine ers offense on the road,
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: So you're gonna have to win a low scoring game.
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: There's some wins, so I think the player is the
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: under I don't want to spoil Kendres. I'll say some
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: of that for Kendre later, but yeah, there's a lot
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: of things pointed the Eagles here. I am surprised. They
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: also got a buy last week, so I think that's valuable.
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: They stay at home. How to buy forty nine ers,
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: you know, coming across the country. That's not in that.
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: Because the Eagles had some injuries, they get to heal
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: up come into this a lot healthier rest up late
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: in the year. But I was I still was semi
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: surprised they didn't play their starters. They chose health. But
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: this is this the NFC's wide open. That could mean
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: the difference between an NFC championship game at home. We're
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: not and Sirianni for what it's worth, these five and
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: er in the playoffs at home, oh and two on
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: the road. But yeah, I wish you well.
• 29:08
  Speaker 5: Thank you. I appreciate that I've been my number ones ages, my.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: My numbers, which create the baseline for me, for I
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: don't bet blindly off of that, nobody should, but just
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: creates a baseline.
• 29:21
  Speaker 5: Have been high on the forty nine ers all year.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: The forty nine ers have covered at a rate of
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: sixty three percent, so I have been on the plus
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: end of that, and hopefully we're just we just need.
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: One number and move on. It's okay. I take pant
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: numbers all the time, not all sometimes.
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: Thank you. I appreciate thoughts and prayers with yours. Truly.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: We are about to dive into our plant the flag games.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Forty nine ers plus three will not be it for me,
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: But first a word from our very own Kendrim Middleton.
• 29:48
  Speaker 8: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with Draftking Sports Book,
• 29:51
  Speaker 8: where new customers can bet five dollars and get three
• 29:54
  Speaker 8: hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins.
• 29:56
  Speaker 8: Staying on the action and use bonus bets on Draftking
• 29:59
  Speaker 8: same game parlays for a shot at an even bigger
• 30:02
  Speaker 8: payout to get started to use promo code favorites when
• 30:04
  Speaker 8: signing up with DraftKings again, use code favorites when signing
• 30:08
  Speaker 8: up and bet five bucks to get three hundred back
• 30:10
  Speaker 8: in bonus bets.
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: All right, Kendra, we kick it over to you before
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: we plant the flag. What is on your mind today?
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: But this is.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: Something that's been haunting me literally all season long.
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: The Meal Mix Podcast.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: If you guys don't know what the Meal Mixed Podcast is,
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: it's a Panther's fan podcast that's been going on for
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: probably like a decade now, I would assume, And before
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: the season started, I want to say it was like
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: three weeks into the season, maybe their wives were like,
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: all right, listen, you need to start spending time with
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: the family. No more Meal Mix Podcast. Meal Mixed Podcast
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: gets canceled. Panthers now go on.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: To be in the postseason.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: So my question for you guys is if your wives
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: were like, whatever brings you joy that you do with
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: the boys, whether it's like gambling for you guys specifically,
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: or if it's like you guys do fantasy.
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: Football or you do a podcast.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: If your team was in such a drought and you
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: knew it and could get ahead of it, would you
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: give up your gambling, your fantasy football, your podcast, whatever
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: it is sports related that you do with the boys
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: for your team to get out of like a historic rut?
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: Would you give it up?
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: Because this is I literally think this is embarrassing. I
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: think about the Meyomicks podcast at least twice a day.
• 31:37
  Speaker 5: That's an insane number.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: Like genuinely, maybe more like I'm not kidding, but I
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: daily am like, yo, I wonder what the guys from
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: Yami's are doing right now.
• 31:47
  Speaker 5: This is an easy one for me.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, my team has been in a rut since
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: I was at the last playoff win for the Miami Dolphins.
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: I was in high school when it happened, was like
• 32:00
  Speaker 5: that long ago.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: That was the year right, oh, two thousand. It was
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: Jay Fiedler against Peyton Manning down to.
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: The wire, And do you give up gambling?
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: I would not know. I would not.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't. I'm used to the misery. I can live.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: I've been I've made it this far. I'm doing fine,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: So I just I would.
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: Come for super.
• 32:22
  Speaker 4: No.
• 32:22
  Speaker 5: No, I just wouldn't. I just wouldn't.
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: I don't know like you say. You say what you
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: do with your boys or what you do. My entire
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: life is betting. Like literally from the time of wake up, Well.
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: Their life was me mix, but that was a side hustle.
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: That is my entire life, betting, like what I do recreationally,
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: what I do professionally, what I enjoy doing, what I
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: have to do everything, how what I do with my friends,
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: like the It consumes my life. So now the.
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: City of Baltimore is about I wouldn't give it up
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: for twenty straight Super Bowl Duckies.
• 33:01
  Speaker 5: Teams also experience. You've experienced multiple Super Bowls, so I think, yes,
• 33:05
  Speaker 5: it's easier for you to.
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: Get so No, but I think that the Meomicks guys
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: should come back like this would have been No, would
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: have been a perfect marketing opportunity.
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: I see that they tweet beautiful yeahs had to die.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: They literally did their like floating raft on fire down
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: the Nile River.
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: It's over.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: You guys can never come back. You freed the sad
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: Cats just let it die.
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: They have a tweet. The refs are killing any chance.
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: The Panthers haven't winning this game. The refs were bad
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: for in that game, but they are still tweeting. But like,
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: I would have never known about the Mayomics pockets. This
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: didn't happen, so like it was an opportunity for them
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: to maybe cover. But no, it seems like that that
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: ship has sailed.
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: Celine Dion, my heart will go on to close it
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: out there.
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: But would you give up breeding shrimp for a Jags Lucky?
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: Yes, Yes, absolutely, I would. Literally I would sell a kidney.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: And I'm not even kidding, like I would do you
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: Dney anything.
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, super Bowl. I don't think you guys understand.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: Like you like you can at least these Kravits hang
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: your hat on the fact that the Dolphins were good
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: at one point. Stucky's experienced multiple Super Bowls. I don't
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: think you guys understand just the pain and misery that
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: I have gone through as a sports fan. It's actually
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: I'm I'm mentally this. I could sue the Jaguars for
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: like mental distress.
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: Yeah, You're gonna have one kidney the rest of your
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: life if.
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: It meant dude. Yeah, honestly, does anybody.
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: In jam.
• 34:47
  Speaker 5: You need to you need to check your priorities.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know, I feel like the Jaguars are my priority.
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: You want to see what hangs above my desk?
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: Please hold should be beaten down by I sh'll be
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: beaten down by them.
• 35:01
  Speaker 5: But by the time.
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: I was born in this and it is framed, Oh
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: my god.
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: All right, Well, then would you if your passion is
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: the Jags, would you give up the Jags for one
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: to win the Super Bowl this year so you get
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: to experience it, but.
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: Then give them up like you're never fed.
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: Again, Like you can't root for them, you can't watch
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: any of their games.
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: Can I go to the Super Bowl this year?
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: You get to enjoy it all they win the Super Bowl,
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: but then the rest of your life there's.
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: No do I get to go to the game?
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: Sure?
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: Then yeah, I would give it up.
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: Wow. See I think that part of like part of
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: the what makes the Super winning a Super Bowl suite
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: is now some tends. You know, if you're a brownspan
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: or a Vikings fan, like there's you could There's been
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: many that have died without diehards that have without seeing one.
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: But like the journey of the the heartbreaks, the the
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: way that season's end, the bad years, the rebuilds, the
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: different quarterback and then that journey of like suffering through
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: it as a fan, and then you never know when
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: you're gonna get there.
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: But uh.
• 36:14
  Speaker 6: Maybe.
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: I mean, look, the Jags have they have a wind,
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: they have a window here. I mean, like you look
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: at some of their young talent, Liam Cohen, not a lot.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: Of guys that they have to worry about in the
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: off season bringing back.
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: That's like the big thing for me is the contrary
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: some of these.
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: Young secondary pieces that are coming along like Monterret Brown.
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: Antonio Johnson out of nowhere is playing amazing.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: I think he's now They're doing all of this without
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: their first round draft pick, yeah, which.
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: Is basically they just don't have him this year. In
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: Travis Hunter.
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: Said the same thing as me. Yeah, what's that? Evan
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: just said the same thing as me.
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah. I mean, so they have a window here. But
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: it's an exciting time in Jacksonville. I'm I'm just excited
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: for the crowd there.
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: You guys will get to see me after the game
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: on Sunday.
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: So I wis night game? Now, that game, I think that's.
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: The most big Like that should be Monday night for sure.
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: Like I think Pats Chargers is cool Packers Bears is cool,
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: but I think like the most.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: We're getting Texan Steelers on Monday Night, Like that's who
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: cares the most.
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: Arguably the worst game of the weekend.
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: The most entertaining game is I mean, and look at
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: the total is Jackson Buffalo. So I wish that was,
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: but it'll be, it'll be. It'll be great regardless.
• 37:34
  Speaker 5: So we will get Kendra on the Sunday Night episode.
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: Correct, Yes, my mom's gonna pick me up.
• 37:41
  Speaker 5: This could be.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: Let's get to our Plant the Flag games presented by
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: Draft Kings, where the crown is yours.
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: It shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here. Okay,
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: you're really.
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: Planning your flag in that deck, Kendra.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: There was a tease for this earlier in the episode,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers and the Eagles.
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: Are you on the total?
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: I am. I'm gonna plant my flag on the under
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: in this game.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: Forty nine Ers obviously hurt top to bottom in the Eagles,
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: We've talked about it all season. Go a half without
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: being able to score, This feels pretty high for me.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the under forty four and a
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: half in this game.
• 38:21
  Speaker 5: Yep, I like it. I was looking at.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at potentially playing just the slate of unders.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: I've got two right now that are on the sheet,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: Carolina LA being one of them, the other LA team
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: and the New England Patriots going under there. And this
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: is another one that I have circled as a possibility
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: if the forty nine ers can't move the ball against
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: an elite defense. And part of the reason why I
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: like San Francisco in this game to begin with is
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: that I don't trust the Eagles offense at all because
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: most of the season they've been trash. Then the under
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: this game should tilt under. So in potential weather in
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: the Northeast, you never know what that's going to look like.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: I haven't seen the updated report, but I like it. Stucky,
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: your thoughts on that and you're playing the flag, Yeah, I.
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: Already played, Dad that under forty four is key. Forty
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: five is also key, So shop around, Evan. If you
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: look this up, look up wild card weekend unders in
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: outdoor games over what is our database? Go back to
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: two thousand and three outdoor games wild card weekend total
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: above forty four unders have like been a smash. So
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: since two thousand and four, outdoor wildcard games are forty
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: nine and twenty three to the under sixty eight percent
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: at forty one or higher forty two and fourteen, how
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: about forty four and higher forty four and a half,
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: So above forty four, which is a key forty three,
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: forty four to forty five our key numbers, but I
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: mean above forty one. It's forty two and fourteen, so outdoor,
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: there's gonna be some wins here as well. It's so
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: early to know exactly what the wins are gonna look like,
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: but there could. It looks like there's gonna be impactful
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: gusts which could impact field goal kicking and downfield passing.
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: And uh yeah, uh, I like that under a lot.
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: I'm going to plant my flag on the Jags first
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: half money line. So I think that this. I think
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: that I don't mind the Jags for the full game,
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: but I'm more confident in them early in this game.
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: And part of that reason, well, number one, they have
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: been incredible in the first half of games all season,
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: and a lot of that is the Liam Cohen script.
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: And like, if you look so Jags they are, they're
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: offensive numbers. They're all top ten first quarter top ten
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: same with the are like eighth in EPA per play
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: in the first half, eighth in the first quarter. In
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: the second half, the Bills are number one, fourth quarter
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: number one, the Jags EPA play twenty first in the
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: second half, thirty first in the fourth quarter. Now, part
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: of that is because they've had a lot of blowout wins.
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: They've benched some starters in the fourth quarter. So let's
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: just focus on the quarterbacks. Lawrence in the first half
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: thirteenth in EPA plus completion percentage of her expectation fourteenth
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: and adjusted EPA per play thirteenth and success rate. So
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: around twelfth, thirteenth, fourteenth, Allen in the first half twenty
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: fifth an EPA plus completion percentage over expectation twenty first
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: and adjusted EPA per play twenty fourth and success rate.
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: How about the second half, Lawrence thirty second, EPA plus
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: completion percentage of expectation twenty first and adjusted EPA per
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: play twenty first and success rate Allen second first, second first.
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: A lot of that is because of the script, and
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: a lot of that is because the Bills they will
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: come out and they run too much. You know, they
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: want to establish the run, and the Jags about a
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: top five run defense all year, and then what happens is, oh,
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: we're either behind. They've been slow starters in their big
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: games almost all year, and then you won Lee Shallon
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: and this Jags pass defense has played a lot better.
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: I mean since week eleven, I think number two in
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: EPA per dropback allowed. I talked about Antonio Johnson is
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: playing really well. They no longer have to play thorn
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: Hill monterk Brown has really came on with the injury
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: to Jordan Lewis. Their second is playing better. But you
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: look at the schedule and you're like, who have they
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: really played? So I could see Allen in the second
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: half from a trailing game script leading the Bills to
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: a comeback victory. He's been incredible in the fourth quarter,
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: incredible in the second half. The Bill's slow starters because
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: they want to run the ball. Their script isn't great.
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: The Cohen script is great. The Bill's run defense is bad.
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: I think the Jags can take advantage when they can
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: run the balls. Kendricks said. The entire offense stems from there.
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: Lawrence has been incredible since Week eleven, and a lot
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: of that improvement has come against zone that's what the
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: Bills do. They're gonna run a ton of zone here.
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: So I like the Jags behind that home crowd, with
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: the Cohen script, with the Bills leading too much on
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: the ground game early against a good run, dye to
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: jump out, have a lead at the half, try to
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: hold on, but wouldn't be surprised if Alan comes from
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: behind making some magic. So give me the Jags first
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: half money line.
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: That's a really creative way to play the Jaguars. It's
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: hard to get to the window on Jacksonville. I want
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: to Maybe I get there. But Josh Allen I'm terrified
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: to bet against him and the Bills as just as
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: a team overall, I have more experience in these situations.
• 43:54
  Speaker 5: Allen has not.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: Been good on the road in the playoffs or the
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: Bills in general.
• 43:59
  Speaker 5: I don't think they've it's been good.
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: It's the Bills deep the Bills to run them down.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: They haven't won a playoff game on the road, I
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: think since since Thurman Thomas was their running back.
• 44:07
  Speaker 5: So it's been a minute.
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean a lot of that's the Chiefs. But
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: the another thing, if you want the who's the most
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: profitable home team against the spread? This year. The Jags
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: first half. The Jags they covered in the first half
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: by an average of seven and a half points per game.
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: That's incredible at home. The Bills three and five against
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: the spread in the first half on the road, not
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: covering by an average of four points per game. So yeah,
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: I h a lot of people, by the way, there's
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: a lot of people that are I'm hearing saying the
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: Jags rushing attack is broken, because if you look so
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: since Jacobe Myers and then Strange came back around week eleven,
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: the Jags offense has been I mean their their second
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: in drop back EPA or third, I should say, fourth
• 44:59
  Speaker 4: in drop back success rate, But over that stretch they're
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: thirty first in rush success rate. So you look over
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: since week eleven, you're like, all right, the Jags are
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: the second worst rushing offense. So that's not good against
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: what's wrong with the Jags rushing offense? I don't think
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: there's anything wrong with it. If you just focus on
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: the first half, they're tenth. Those numbers are being skewed
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: by the fact that you know they've won what eight
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: in a row. I think they're eight and one over
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: the past time games, six of those nine games have
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: come by at least two touchdowns. They were just running
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: the clock out in the fourth quarter. Their rush success
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: rate in the fourth quarter since week eleven is twenty percent.
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: It's the worst by far. So it's just like, hey,
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: we're up seventeen, who cares and you have backups in
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: you're just running into the wall and punning it. So
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: their rushing offense is still fine, it's top ten in
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: the first half since week eleven. It's their passing offense
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: that has taken off with Jakobe Myers and strange back.
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: So I think that they can run the ball fine
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: here against the Bills who have a really bad run defense,
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: and the screens. Screens can work against his Bills team,
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: so I think Cohen Early has some nice creative screens
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: drawn up. I think the Jags also have a special
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: team's edge. Who's kicking for the Bills this week? We
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: don't even know. The Jags have cam little good punter,
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: good return game. So I think there's a lot of
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: reasons to like the Jags. The reasons to like the Bills,
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: and it's valid is just like, Okay, the Bills are
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: probably going to get behind and they're going to say, Alan,
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: go win the game. He's more than capable of doing that.
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, sometimes dudes just win games in the playoffs in sports, Kendra,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: any pushback on that for your squad.
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: No, because I don't really trust who the Bills are
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: right now. But I also really don't trust the Jaguars.
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: So the Jags seem like the better side just because
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: of the momentum that they have in the season that
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: they've had. But it's hard to get behind a team
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: that you haven't trusted for a long time.
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: So I do I think that I agree with you.
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: I think that's a creative way to play it.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: The thing that makes me nervous is that Trevor Lawrence
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: is the guy who, when he has a lead, can't
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: keep it, and when he doesn't, has the game of
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: his life.
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: So that's the only thing that concerns me.
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah, My main concern with the Jags is because I mean,
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: we've just been a Jags podcast all year. I love
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: them all. I bet them the win the division to
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: go over to make the playoffs. I saw it with
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: this Jags team, and I didn't think they were going
• 47:25
  Speaker 4: to be this good, especially on offense, and I didn't
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: think that Jocoby Myers is gonna be this good. But
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: I've always believed in Cohen. They're the hottest team in
• 47:35
  Speaker 4: the league right now. But you look and since Myers
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: got here, I mean, they blew that game against the
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: Texans and Davis Mills. They here's who they beat to
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: close the ear the Cardinals in overtime, the Titans, the Colts,
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: the Jets, the Colts again, the Titans again. The game
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: that gives me confidence is when they went to Denver
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: and destroyed the Broncos. But other than that, I mean,
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: it's the Colts twice with all their injuries, the Titans twice,
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: the Jets who are tanking, the Cardinals with all their injuries.
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: So but there's two games in there the two months
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: when they destroyed the Chargers and they destroyed the Broncos
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: in Denver that do give me confidence in this Jags team.
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: But the schedule definitely has been beneficial down the stretch.
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: But I can't wait for that game.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: I will be planting my flag on the Carolina Panthers.
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: Plus ten against the l A Rams had to fit
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: the sad Cats in here.
• 48:39
  Speaker 5: A lot of.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: Crazy to me that you trust them more than you
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: trust the Jags.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: Uh well they Well it's a much fatter number for
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: one playing a flag.
• 48:49
  Speaker 4: On Eagles minus four and a half.
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Garrett, and then and then watching the Eagles
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: would win by four, I'd lose both bets. That'll be great.
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: A lot of reasons to like the Panthers at this number.
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: This is not about this is not about trust versus Jacksonville.
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: I'm probably gonna s I'm probably gonna end.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: Up betting the Jag So just it's just going to
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: take me a minute. I'm like slow crawling my way
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: to the window on that. We have ourselves a ten,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: the seventh most common outcome in the last ten years.
• 49:18
  Speaker 5: Okay, we're talking key numbers.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: The Panthers off a loss this season eight to zero
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: against the spread road favorites of four more in the playoffs,
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: thank you, Evan, one and eight ats. So there are
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: some strong trends that point to the underdog here. And
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: then from a football perspective, the Rams have not been
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: playing their best ball as of late. They just fired
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: their special teams coach two weeks ago because they were
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: in such disarray. They're one and two straight up in
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: their last three. They had a just a three point
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: lead over the Cardinals headed into the fourth quarter in
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: Week eighteen. I don't love the fact that old man
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: Matt Stafford had to play deep into that game. The
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: Panthers have a one day rest advantage after they played
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: on Saturday, and I think you can downgrade the Rams.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: We already saw this in Carolina indoor team playing outside
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: on the East Coast. McVeigh for the record has been
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: good on the East Coast, but still historically a tough
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: spot for NFL teams. Los Angeles just one win in
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: their last four road games. I'm taking the Panthers at
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: plus ten.
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: That fascinating game for I don't have much confidence in
• 50:28
  Speaker 4: the Panthers offense. I'm actually leaning this is another under.
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: I'm leaning outdoor under. You might say, like, let's look
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: at the first meeting. It was thirty one to twenty eight.
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: That game just got ridiculous because I mean the Rams
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: started the game with a kick return to like the thirty,
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: and they had a thirty yard touchdown drive. Then there
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: was a pick six. The Panthers scored on a third
• 50:52
  Speaker 4: and eight, a fourth and three bomb, and a fourth
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: and two bomb like so, and the game got just
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: was kills from that. I don't have much faith in
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: this Panthers offense doing much, but they're going to like
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: control the clock like they had like an eight minute
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: drive in that game that went like twenty eight yards.
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: The most fascinating matchup to me in that game is
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: the Panthers defense against the Rams offense. Now, the Panthers
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: defense is a weird bunch, like some weeks to look
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: really feisty. Even though they don't have a lot of talent,
• 51:26
  Speaker 4: they can't get pressure, and a lot of that is
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: their defensive coordinator Evro, who I really like he a lot.
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: He runs a lot of cover three base, but they
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: disguise coverages more than any team in the NFL, close
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: to fifty percent at the time. Stafford has historically struggled
• 51:42
  Speaker 4: against those teams, and he's also struggled against his You
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: look at where he struggled this year, it's against his
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: ex coordinators Morris and Evra, who was with McVeigh for
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: a while, and by the way, against Evro this year,
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: the McVeigh, Shannan Tree, Purdy Love Stafford did nothing against
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: the Panthers. They had their worst. They had their as
• 52:07
  Speaker 4: far as interceptions are concerned. Now you might say, and
• 52:11
  Speaker 4: you can go back. I mean when Stafford has played
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: Morrison even in the past, he's not had great games,
• 52:17
  Speaker 4: you might say, well, look stuck. The Rams put up,
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: you know, twenty eight points with a pick six and
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: they averaged over seven yards per play. Yes, the Panthers
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: were missing all of their starting linebackers Morig, their starting
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: safety was suspended, their best corner, J. C. Horn was
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: out with a concussion. Remember going into that game and
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: the spread was ten. The Panthers defense was a shell unit,
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: an absolute shell unit. I mean, their best safety, their
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: best corner, the two best linebackers all didn't play in
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: the game. So their defense is going to now there's
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: some injury questions in linebacker, but their secondary is going
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: to be much healthier this time around. So that I
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: wouldn't say, okay, because the Rams did this in the
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: first meeting, that it's going to be as easy this
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: time around, because the Panthers should be much healthier on defense.
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: But I find that interesting that that ero the familiarity
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: with the McVeigh offense, with Stafford and who we struggled with,
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: and how that plays out, and if there's some mcday
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: adjustments we've seen mcday in the past. Just go like, hey,
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: I'm going to go with a completely different formation tendencies
• 53:27
  Speaker 4: for this entire game. I'm fascinated on that side of
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: the ball. So the Panthers defense might actually be a
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: little bit more feisty than people might think here, So
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: uh take I could only take the ten, but I'm
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: also leaning under there. I don't know. That's my rambling thoughts.
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: I have a random complaint that back to back Saturdays,
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: we're just getting the NFC.
• 53:50
  Speaker 4: Why you you you need you need mix it up
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: on days.
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: I just want to see one of each.
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: I would like this to be a little bit more
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: split back to back South. I've watched NFC football, and yes,
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: I think whoever wins the NFC is going to win
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, but the AFC is more entertaining right now.
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: Very random, very weird complaint, just back to back some Saturdays.
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: I've been like, why then you gotta.
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: Have short rest for certain teams just to appease Kender,
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: But maybe we'll we'll put a call.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: I would easily easily swap the Packers Bears for the
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: Steelers Texans, like the Texans have been relegated to Saturday
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: every year they've been in the playoffs for the last
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: several years. I'm really surprised. Maybe they switched it up
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: just for that reason. But doesn't it feel like the
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: Texans always play on Saturday in the playoffs?
• 54:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they always a This is the first time ever
• 54:39
  Speaker 4: that they made the playoffs that they won't play on
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: that opening Saturday. But Texan Steelers has a lot bigger
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: draw than I mean, the Panthers. I think they made
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: the right choice. You stick that that's the worst game.
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: It's the biggest spread by the way the Steelers, Evan
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: can look at Yeah, ESPN's it just basically comes down
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: to networks. ESPN wanted the AFC North. Evan, you you
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: might look this up. You can look this up because
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: this is probably this has to be the first playoff
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: game this year. As I played them in the night,
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: the Steelers, I believe, not lost a Monday night game
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: in like thirty eight years.
• 55:09
  Speaker 5: Oh god, that's gonna be on the pregame show. Yeah.
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: No, I think it's little since like the eighties.
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: That's what I said this Sunday. I think the Steelers
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: could win this freaking game.
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: Of course, I'm trying to find reasons, ladies and gentlemen.
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: I'm going up and down the list on all these games.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: I don't like a single favorite.
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: No me either, me either, No me either, cravits, it's
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: killing me. I'm like, they're like, I can't feeling.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: I know that all the dogs aren't going to win,
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: but you know, just or pick thems essentially.
• 55:46
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they're like there a lot of them are pick thems.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: I just wonder if I'm all the thing I'm trying
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: to assess here is am I overconfident in the playoff dog?
• 55:57
  Speaker 5: But I like this thing.
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: If I had bet it right now, I would take
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: the Steelers plus three and a half. When we hop
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: off this podcast, I will be betting the Chargers plus
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: three and a half. I've already taken the forty nine
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: Ers at a bad number. I'm on the Panthers plus ten,
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: and if I end up on Packers Bears, I'd be
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: on the Packers. I'm probably not gonna end up betting
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: all of these games. I'm gonna leave some off the two, but.
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: Don't over think of the back The Backers could close.
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: I think they're gonna close as a vapor. Then then
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: what then you're on a dog is a favorite, Well.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: I would I wouldn't just bet a favorite to bet
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: a favorite, but what I would do is say I
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: might be be over exposing myself to the dogs and
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: just not bet it.
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: I think I know what I'm saying. The Packers might
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: end up as a favorite, So then like the don't
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: don't don't overthink it.
• 56:40
  Speaker 5: I love my I love my stucky pep talks. They
• 56:42
  Speaker 5: get me through the season.
• 56:44
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: That's like when someone's like, well this this this quarterback
• 56:46
  Speaker 4: as an underdog is like blah blah blah. When this
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: spread is one, and I'm like, all right, well if
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: they close minus one, it's no longer a good bet.
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: They're not gonna win now, But as always, just get
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: the best number.
• 57:01
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 57:01
  Speaker 4: I don't love any favorites like rams Pants. I haven't
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: bet it yet with Lean Panthers, Packers, Bears. I bet
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: the Packers. Talk about that on Thursday Bill's Jags. I
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: bet the Jags first half lean Jags. But these are
• 57:14
  Speaker 4: all coin flips. But forty nine Ers Eagles, I don't
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: like the forty nine Ers. Now, I'm just on that
• 57:18
  Speaker 4: under Chargers Pats. I like the Chargers Texans Steelers. I
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: have no idea yet. I can't like I wanted to
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: bet that under but I mean it's thirty nine and
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: a half. Is that's low like that, especially with two
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: defenses that can cause havoc, can create short fields like
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: So we'll talk about that game more on Thursday. I
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: still have to break that one down. I have no
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: clue what I'm doing there.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, come and join us. Time for the primer
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: courtesy of one Evan Abrams. What are the trends that
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: we need to be aware of before we go firing away?
• 57:57
  Speaker 5: I dug through the primer.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: I read every word of this bad Boy, A beautiful
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: read this week, Evan.
• 58:03
  Speaker 7: I appreciate that, all right, So let me answer some
• 58:05
  Speaker 7: stucky questions. So, yeah, we talked about first playoff starts
• 58:08
  Speaker 7: versus experience twenty and thirty nine against a spread thirty
• 58:12
  Speaker 7: four percent since division realignment to twenty and forty straight up.
• 58:16
  Speaker 7: So that'd be Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, Drake May So
• 58:20
  Speaker 7: that one is always going to be in line whenever
• 58:22
  Speaker 7: we talk about playoff, especially the start of it. To
• 58:25
  Speaker 7: answer your question on the Monday night football thing, So
• 58:27
  Speaker 7: dating back to ninety two. Steelers are twenty three and
• 58:30
  Speaker 7: one playing on a Monday. Their only loss was against
• 58:33
  Speaker 7: the Commanders in twenty twenty when we had to move
• 58:36
  Speaker 7: the game to a Monday. So many people will say that,
• 58:40
  Speaker 7: you know, in front of a crowd, they haven't lost
• 58:43
  Speaker 7: since nineteen ninety two at home on Monday night football,
• 58:46
  Speaker 7: which is.
• 58:46
  Speaker 6: Always a fun one and always we talked about this
• 58:48
  Speaker 6: as well.
• 58:48
  Speaker 7: Rogers is great on Monday Night football, twelve and two
• 58:51
  Speaker 7: in his career, so he's done that pretty well himself.
• 58:54
  Speaker 6: I mean the other one on.
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: A Monday night, that that's Commander Steelers game.
• 58:58
  Speaker 7: Yeah, we moved it to a Monday, which you know
• 59:01
  Speaker 7: not technically Monday night football. But if it says Monday,
• 59:04
  Speaker 7: I'm tossing no.
• 59:05
  Speaker 4: But I wouldn't be Yeah, I wouldn't be confident that's
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: Monday Night. Like I remember they moved The Ravens played
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: the Steelers that year on a Wednesday afternoon. Do you
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: remember that. There was like widespread outbreaks and they're like,
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: we got to get this game in and they played
• 59:22
  Speaker 4: on a Wednesday afternoon.
• 59:24
  Speaker 6: Yeah, chaos, And then they.
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: Had to play on like four so someone at one
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: of them had to play on four days rest, so
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: I wasn't sure if that might have been like a Monday.
• 59:31
  Speaker 4: I don't remember that game. Who was Steelers Commanders.
• 59:35
  Speaker 6: Steelers command that was the for their first loss of
• 59:38
  Speaker 6: the season.
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: That was, Yes, I bet the Commanders that game. That
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: was that fraudulent Steelers team.
• 59:43
  Speaker 6: That was eleven PM on a Monday.
• 59:45
  Speaker 4: Yes see, it wasn't at night.
• 59:48
  Speaker 6: So Monday football, but.
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: Monday night football at home.
• 59:52
  Speaker 7: They haven't lost, correct, I think I think the better
• 59:55
  Speaker 7: I think the better one is like in front of
• 59:56
  Speaker 7: a crowd, right like you have you have like the
• 59:58
  Speaker 7: terrible Towels, the you know and renegade. They haven't lost
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 7: twenty three in a row, thank you?
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 6: Yes, you know?
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: The quarterback was to beat the Steelers the game their
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 4: first loss. The Commander has won that game?
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 6: Was it? Heineke?
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 4: Alex Smith?
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 6: Alex Smith?
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: Wow?
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 7: What else do I have for you? I mean, Kraviit
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 7: you mentioned this as well. But there's like a few
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 7: ways to look at Carolina. So double digit underdogs, terrible
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 7: five and thirteen against the spreads in twenty eleven, but
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 7: when they're at home four plus points, they're eight to oh.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 6: Over the last fifty years, so at.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 7: Home in the playoffs getting four points or more eight
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 7: and to o against the spread, which is you look
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 7: at that Carolina game. There's so many ways to kind
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 7: of cut the pie. Just pick a side, take it
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 7: for what you will. I will say this, this one
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 7: took a little bit to look at. So the Jaguars
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 7: enter the playoffs not only winning eight straight, but covering
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 7: eight straight. It's only happened one other time in the
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 7: Super Bowl era. That was the Saints in twenty eleven
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 7: and twelve. So this is one of the hottest teams
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 7: could remember from a straight up and ats perspective entering
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 7: the playoffs, which is fun in itself. And then you
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 7: look at the Texans. They've won nine in a rown
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 7: during the playoffs, which isn't exactly the best thing. Those
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 7: teams six and nineteen against the spreads in two thousand
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 7: and two, five and fourteen when they're a favorite and
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 7: going into Pittsburgh should be an interesting scenario.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 4: Is there any do you have anything in there about
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 4: teams on I think I've looked into this before and
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: there's nothing there but teams on a losing streak going
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 4: into the playoffs. It's probably rare but like the Packers
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 4: have lost what four straight?
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 7: Yeah, so they would only be the fourth team to
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 7: lose four straight games entering the playoffs.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 6: The Steelers did it last year, the Lions in ninety nine,
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 6: the Jets, and eighty six. I think they went like two.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 7: And two wild carters so in their first game, but
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 7: none of those teams made the conference championship, so it
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 7: usually shows that there isn't long term longevity for that team.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 7: But either way, nonetheless kind of fascinating.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: Yes, bus the Packers just booted, literally punted Week eighteen.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 7: And the other thing was this, so overall we've seen
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 7: thirteen teams in the Super Bowl area have a four
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 7: plus game straight up losing streak that bled into December
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 7: or later.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 6: So this late in the season, teams whould just fall apart.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 6: Ten of those.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 7: Thirteen teams lost in the wildcard round, twelve of thirteen
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 7: in the divisional So it really does have a ceiling
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 7: for those teams who have had losing streaks late.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 5: Does that apply to anybody else but Green Bay?
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 6: Don't believe so, but I could double check.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: How about rest versus rust and specifically talking about the
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: teams that bench starters like Green Bay, they would qualify
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: for this, the Chargers would qualify that teams that rested
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: their starters. Is that problematic as far as the spread goes.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 5: Do you have anything on that?
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 6: I definitely do.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 7: And now I'm looking into my story because I did
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 7: look this up, and the way I looked it up
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 7: was the fact that teams who are like six plus
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 7: point underdogs in their previous game and entering the playoffs
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 7: trying to find it.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 6: But it's in the primer somewhere. Too much stuff in here.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 5: This week it was fat. It was fat.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: I've looked at it in the past. It's just like
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 4: that resting starters late in the season. It's just there
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: was some signal, like I said before, but it's very
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: difficult to track and jet like I did to qualify
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 4: which games count? Right, Like did this team how many
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 4: starters do you? Does it is the threshold for like
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: this team rested starters, right or this team didn't? Do
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: you just go based on the quarterback because some teams
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: will play their quarterback, some things play their quarterback for
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: a half. So like there's a lot of noise in
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: like determining what the data set is. But I do
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 4: think that they're From what I've looked into, there's a
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: it's it's not huge, but I mean it's kind of
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: like a bye week how you would expect. But late
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 4: in the season, I think a bye week has little
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 4: just probably gonna be healthier and fresher than the other team.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 4: I think that's one of the reasons McVeigh historically has
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 4: always chosen to do that in disregarding seating except for
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 4: this year.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 6: So the way I looked at it was history hasn't
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 6: been kind to teams who are big.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 7: Underdogs the week before entering the Wildcard round, which would
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 7: basically be a signal that they rested players, because if
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 7: you're a playoff team, you're not this big of an underdog,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 7: but six or higher previous game entering Wildcard Round eight
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 7: and nineteen against the spread, that would be the Packers
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 7: and the Chargers.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 5: That's not good. So keep that in mind. Thank you, Evan.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 5: Go read the primer highly, highly recommend it.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: producers David Payne and Gifford Gold. The Favorites will return
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: on Thursday afternoon right here on the Action Network YouTube page.
• 1:04:46
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