Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / LAST CHANCE for Epic Primary Election Investment Value

Transcript

LAST CHANCE for Epic Primary Election Investment Value · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:01
  A day like today only comes along once in a lifetime.
• 0:05
  Yes,
• 0:06
  we've made it through multiple dozens of episodes on this show.
• 0:10
  Episode 50,
• 0:11
  it's a round number.
• 0:13
  We should celebrate and we will celebrate today,
• 0:16
  our 50th episode of Predictable.
• 0:17
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 0:18
  Uh,
• 0:19
  we have a lot to go through.
• 0:20
  The Florida primaries are tomorrow.
• 0:22
  Some interesting opportunities there.
• 0:23
  We have Alaska and Wyoming coming up tomorrow as well.
• 0:26
  We'll preview that for you.
• 0:27
  We have some information about what
• 0:30
  At least how experts are saying the polls were such a disaster in Wisconsin,
• 0:34
  which cost me money,
• 0:35
  by the way,
• 0:35
  I'm not happy about it.
• 0:37
  And,
• 0:37
  uh,
• 0:37
  here's one I kind of like.
• 0:38
  We have that segment we'd like to do for you,
• 0:40
  where we can find these kind of random markets and say,
• 0:42
  there might be an opportunity here.
• 0:44
  We'll get to a couple of those today
• 0:46
  as well.
• 0:46
  As always,
• 0:47
  join us on Predictable.
• 0:48
  Show.com.
• 0:49
  Great articles,
• 0:49
  great
• 0:51
  uh conversation going on there every single day.
• 0:53
  We find so many different things that we're able to kind
• 0:54
  of talk bat around with uh everybody who's a subscriber.
• 0:58
  If you'd like to be a premium subscriber,
• 0:59
  we'd love to have you there as well.
• 1:01
  It's predictableshow.com.
• 1:03
  Let's get today's show,
• 1:04
  episode 50,
• 1:05
  started right now.
• 1:20
  I looked up at my screen
• 1:23
  this weekend,
• 1:23
  and what did I see on it?
• 1:25
  NFL football.
• 1:27
  Yes,
• 1:28
  NFL football
• 1:30
  on my screen.
• 1:31
  It makes me feel warm inside every single year when this happens.
• 1:34
  And it's just,
• 1:35
  you know,
• 1:35
  crappy preseason football.
• 1:37
  I can say that because the Eagles lost,
• 1:38
  so I have to justify it in some way.
• 1:40
  Uh,
• 1:40
  but like,
• 1:41
  you know,
• 1:41
  it's preseason football,
• 1:42
  it's a bunch of third stringers,
• 1:44
  it's still football,
• 1:45
  and I love watching it.
• 1:46
  And,
• 1:46
  you know,
• 1:46
  you think about it,
• 1:47
  you're in the preseason.
• 1:48
  You only got a few more weeks
• 1:50
  until you're actually watching regular season football.
• 1:52
  In fact,
• 1:52
  today,
• 1:53
  24 days away
• 1:55
  from the NFL season,
• 1:56
  you might say,
• 1:56
  OK,
• 1:56
  well,
• 1:57
  what does that have to do with the elections or prediction markets?
• 1:59
  What are you getting to here?
• 2:00
  Well,
• 2:01
  think about this for a second.
• 2:03
  That first game,
• 2:04
  24 days away,
• 2:05
  you watch that first game,
• 2:06
  you go into the weekend,
• 2:07
  you get that first slate of games,
• 2:09
  NFL Sunday Ticket kind of kicks off.
• 2:11
  You're watching football all day long.
• 2:13
  And then,
• 2:14
  Before you can get to that following weekend.
• 2:17
  Before that happens,
• 2:20
  Early voting will begin.
• 2:23
  We're only 32 days away from early voting
• 2:27
  beginning
• 2:28
  in the first states.
• 2:30
  That's how close we are
• 2:32
  to this election.
• 2:33
  Seems insane.
• 2:35
  32 days
• 2:37
  until the first round of early voting begins.
• 2:39
  78 days
• 2:41
  until the midterm election
• 2:43
  is here.
• 2:44
  And we're getting results,
• 2:45
  and we're up all night
• 2:47
  with you at predictableShow.com,
• 2:48
  ranting and raving.
• 2:50
  My voice will be shot.
• 2:51
  I probably will have lots of alcohol by the end of the night because I,
• 2:54
  it's the only way I'm gonna get through it,
• 2:56
  frankly.
• 2:56
  Uh,
• 2:57
  hopefully,
• 2:57
  things go well.
• 2:59
  Not always optimistic about such things,
• 3:01
  but we're gonna hope that they go well.
• 3:02
  I will say we're gonna get lots of opportunities,
• 3:04
  and I think
• 3:05
  have a very profitable evening.
• 3:06
  That's an important thing,
• 3:07
  and there's a reason why
• 3:09
  it's important to know how far this is out and
• 3:11
  how we should be thinking about the November elections.
• 3:13
  We'll get into that here
• 3:14
  in just a second.
• 3:15
  Tomorrow,
• 3:16
  however,
• 3:17
  is one of our last like really big deal primaries.
• 3:20
  Uh,
• 3:21
  we,
• 3:21
  we don't have that schedule around,
• 3:22
  do we,
• 3:22
  by any chance,
• 3:22
  Adam?
• 3:23
  I don't remember which,
• 3:23
  uh,
• 3:24
  which ones are coming up in the next few weeks,
• 3:26
  but it's like,
• 3:26
  we're,
• 3:26
  we're,
• 3:27
  we've gone away from the 5 and 6 primaries
• 3:30
  per night type of thing on a Tuesday.
• 3:32
  We are now looking at more like 1.
• 3:34
  This,
• 3:34
  uh,
• 3:34
  tomorrow there'll be 3.
• 3:35
  You have,
• 3:35
  uh,
• 3:36
  uh,
• 3:36
  Alaska and Wyoming,
• 3:37
  which there's only,
• 3:38
  I think 5 races total
• 3:40
  between the two,
• 3:41
  and you have that really crazy system in,
• 3:44
  in Alaska where.
• 3:46
  The first round of voting,
• 3:47
  which is the primary,
• 3:48
  is a top 4.
• 3:49
  So the top 4 from any party,
• 3:52
  uh,
• 3:52
  no matter what,
• 3:52
  where the what party they're in,
• 3:53
  they'll get into the final round,
• 3:55
  which will be in November,
• 3:56
  and then that will be ranked choice voting,
• 3:58
  which will then mean like,
• 3:59
  you know,
• 3:59
  you're eliminating voters until someone gets to 50%.
• 4:01
  It's a very confusing system.
• 4:02
  Bottom line is.
• 4:03
  You know,
• 4:04
  there's some interesting stuff there.
• 4:05
  Maybe we'll do a little bit on that on tomorrow's election in Wyoming and,
• 4:08
  uh,
• 4:08
  in,
• 4:08
  in Alaska.
• 4:09
  The big one is kind of Florida.
• 4:11
  We've been on the Florida one for a while.
• 4:12
  If you've been watching the show for a while,
• 4:13
  you know they've,
• 4:14
  I've had several positions.
• 4:15
  Some of my biggest positions
• 4:17
  are in the Florida elections.
• 4:18
  4 things to watch during Tuesday's Florida primary comes from the Tampa Bay Times.
• 4:22
  And,
• 4:23
  you know,
• 4:23
  they're talking a lot.
• 4:24
  There's some interesting stuff on the,
• 4:25
  uh,
• 4:26
  Democratic side as well.
• 4:27
  I want to focus on the Republican side though.
• 4:29
  At least for today.
• 4:30
  We'll get into more of this stuff
• 4:32
  uh at predictableShow.com.
• 4:33
  By the way,
• 4:34
  uh,
• 4:34
  if you are a premium member of PredictableShow.com,
• 4:36
  you get all of my picks early.
• 4:38
  Uh,
• 4:38
  so you will get them.
• 4:40
  I'm gonna start putting them on there this afternoon for tomorrow's elections.
• 4:43
  Some of them you already know.
• 4:44
  If you have,
• 4:45
  if you're on PredictableShow.com as a premium member,
• 4:48
  you have access to all my picks in advance.
• 4:50
  So,
• 4:50
  there's a database of over 200 of them,
• 4:53
  positions that I currently hold in prediction markets that you
• 4:55
  can kind of just go see whenever you want.
• 4:57
  Um,
• 4:57
  and then
• 4:58
  as I grow,
• 4:58
  as we get closer and closer to a primary election,
• 5:00
  I'll
• 5:01
  start adding a bunch of stuff,
• 5:03
  and from there,
• 5:04
  we will update that in our,
• 5:05
  uh,
• 5:05
  premium chat.
• 5:07
  So,
• 5:07
  you'll get a lot of the stuff here in the live streams and on the show,
• 5:10
  but we'll also,
• 5:11
  if you really want that detail,
• 5:12
  if you're someone who's a traitor,
• 5:13
  I do think it is well worth your money.
• 5:15
  Uh,
• 5:15
  if you want to be a premium subscriber,
• 5:17
  especially if you're trading these things with any regularity,
• 5:19
  there's a great community there.
• 5:20
  There's lots of great features,
• 5:21
  predictableShow.com.
• 5:22
  OK,
• 5:23
  let me show you,
• 5:23
  uh,
• 5:24
  first of all,
• 5:24
  let me give you a story about this one.
• 5:25
  And you may have heard me tell,
• 5:26
  tell bits and pieces of the story,
• 5:28
  but this is one,
• 5:29
  this is a multi-year story,
• 5:30
  frankly.
• 5:31
  Uh,
• 5:31
  Florida Republican Senate nominee,
• 5:34
  this is what this market looks like,
• 5:35
  uh,
• 5:35
  right now.
• 5:36
  And you see Ashley Moody at 98.4% chance to win.
• 5:41
  Uh,
• 5:41
  you know,
• 5:41
  there's a bunch of other straggler candidates there,
• 5:43
  but obviously,
• 5:44
  she's the,
• 5:44
  uh,
• 5:45
  heavy,
• 5:45
  heavy favorite.
• 5:46
  She's the senator right now.
• 5:47
  The reason why this is an important race for me personally
• 5:50
  is,
• 5:50
  uh,
• 5:51
  I bought shares in this race
• 5:53
  a long time ago.
• 5:55
  Long time ago.
• 5:56
  Why?
• 5:56
  How did I do that?
• 5:58
  Well,
• 5:58
  basically by mistake,
• 5:59
  because when Ashley Moody,
• 6:01
  so,
• 6:01
  if you remember,
• 6:02
  uh,
• 6:03
  this is when Marco Rubio
• 6:05
  leaves his Senate seat
• 6:07
  and,
• 6:07
  uh,
• 6:07
  and goes
• 6:08
  to,
• 6:08
  uh,
• 6:09
  the Trump White House.
• 6:11
  And he's Secretary of State,
• 6:12
  big deal.
• 6:13
  There's an open seat.
• 6:14
  Rhonda Santos gets to pick who's in the seat,
• 6:16
  and I'm watching the announcement unfurl in,
• 6:18
  in front of live cameras,
• 6:19
  and I can't remember exactly what the situation was.
• 6:21
  I was,
• 6:21
  I was definitely in the radio studio,
• 6:23
  uh,
• 6:23
  working with Glenn Beck at the time.
• 6:25
  And,
• 6:25
  uh,
• 6:26
  and there's a bunch of candidates on there,
• 6:27
  and,
• 6:27
  uh,
• 6:28
  I look up at the screen and I don't know if I'm seeing an,
• 6:30
  an early feed or if we were off-camera.
• 6:32
  I can't remember what I was seeing,
• 6:33
  but I remember seeing her.
• 6:34
  On one of the feeds and Ashley Moody's standing there.
• 6:36
  I know she's one of the candidates,
• 6:37
  uh,
• 6:38
  the potential candidates,
• 6:39
  but they hadn't announced it yet.
• 6:40
  And she walks out there,
• 6:41
  she's standing there.
• 6:41
  I'm like,
• 6:42
  well,
• 6:42
  they're
• 6:42
  either they're gonna really torture her with like
• 6:44
  one of these reality show type things.
• 6:46
  Maybe Donald Trump has implemented an
• 6:47
  Apprentice style thing where they're like,
• 6:49
  not you,
• 6:50
  Ashley,
• 6:50
  you're fired.
• 6:51
  But I figured since she was there,
• 6:53
  she probably won,
• 6:54
  uh,
• 6:54
  the pick.
• 6:55
  And so I'm sitting there and I'm looking at these markets and they're at
• 6:58
  like 98.
• 7:00
  And I'm like,
• 7:01
  well,
• 7:01
  you know,
• 7:01
  look,
• 7:01
  it's a couple of percent,
• 7:03
  but
• 7:04
  frankly,
• 7:04
  uh,
• 7:04
  you know,
• 7:05
  it was 95%,
• 7:05
  96,
• 7:06
  97,
• 7:06
  98% in that range.
• 7:07
  And I'm buying and I'm buying and I'm buying.
• 7:09
  Uh,
• 7:10
  yeah,
• 7:10
  I think I even started lower,
• 7:11
  maybe in the low 90s when I first saw her,
• 7:13
  but
• 7:14
  it got up to like 98% after she kind of came up.
• 7:16
  She's making the speech and it's still stickening at 98.
• 7:19
  I'm thinking to myself like,
• 7:20
  look,
• 7:20
  I
• 7:21
  have made some profit on this when it was lower.
• 7:24
  Uh,
• 7:24
  well,
• 7:24
  it's up to 98.
• 7:25
  Uh,
• 7:25
  I'm happy about that.
• 7:26
  It's gonna resolve to 100 any minute now as soon as,
• 7:28
  as soon as this news is,
• 7:30
  uh,
• 7:30
  fully confirmed,
• 7:30
  but she's out there making the speech.
• 7:32
  She's already been introduced by Ron DeSanttos as the next senator
• 7:35
  of the state of Florida or whatever it was.
• 7:37
  And
• 7:38
  I'm just,
• 7:39
  I'm buying and I'm buying and I'm buying,
• 7:40
  and,
• 7:40
  and,
• 7:41
  you know,
• 7:41
  I keep buying shares.
• 7:42
  I'm buying too many shares,
• 7:43
  probably too many shares.
• 7:44
  Um,
• 7:45
  and,
• 7:45
  uh,
• 7:46
  and then,
• 7:47
  it ends and it's just sticking there around 98,
• 7:49
  then drops down to like 96.
• 7:51
  Like,
• 7:51
  what is going on?
• 7:53
  And that's how I developed the,
• 7:55
  Second Amendment to the predictable Constitution,
• 7:58
  yes,
• 7:59
  of course.
• 8:00
  You gotta read the rules.
• 8:03
  Because what I was doing,
• 8:04
  it said,
• 8:04
  who's the next senator or whatever it was,
• 8:06
  who's going to be in the Senate seat in Florida,
• 8:08
  and Ashley Moody's right there at the top.
• 8:10
  What they were talking about was not
• 8:12
  the,
• 8:13
  uh,
• 8:14
  her being named.
• 8:15
  I think the terminology was who will be elected
• 8:17
  as senator.
• 8:18
  They were talking about this election,
• 8:20
  not the one a couple of years ago.
• 8:21
  So I've had all these shares
• 8:24
  sitting in this Ashley Moody account.
• 8:27
  Honestly,
• 8:27
  like,
• 8:28
  I kept them there instead of just selling at the time,
• 8:30
  uh,
• 8:30
  I kept them there to torture myself,
• 8:32
  to remind myself of the Second Amendment to the predictable Constitution,
• 8:35
  just like the Second Amendment to the US Constitution.
• 8:37
  Nobody seems to want to talk about it,
• 8:39
  but.
• 8:40
  Frankly,
• 8:40
  it's still part of the Constitution.
• 8:41
  You gotta read the rules.
• 8:42
  No one wants to do it.
• 8:44
  I didn't wanna do it.
• 8:45
  I was in the wrong contract.
• 8:46
  There was another separate contract
• 8:48
  for who DeSantis would name
• 8:50
  that would resolve,
• 8:51
  of course,
• 8:51
  at $1 moments later.
• 8:52
  Instead,
• 8:53
  I held these contracts for multiple years and
• 8:55
  I've actually built my position on this because.
• 8:57
  You know,
• 8:58
  Moody is someone who,
• 8:58
  uh,
• 8:59
  you know,
• 8:59
  doesn't make tons and tons of news.
• 9:01
  She's not a super splashy candidate,
• 9:02
  uh,
• 9:02
  but has strong support within the party
• 9:05
  from DeSantis,
• 9:06
  from that Florida Republican,
• 9:08
  um,
• 9:09
  group,
• 9:09
  and,
• 9:09
  uh,
• 9:10
  I see no reason for her to lose this.
• 9:11
  So
• 9:12
  hopefully I'll finally be cashing out of that position after a long time,
• 9:15
  but
• 9:15
  read the freaking rules,
• 9:17
  make sure you're in the right contract.
• 9:19
  Sometimes there's some that look the same.
• 9:20
  The,
• 9:20
  the,
• 9:21
  the question might be very,
• 9:21
  very similar,
• 9:22
  but if you're in the wrong one.
• 9:24
  Uh,
• 9:24
  that can happen.
• 9:25
  Hopefully,
• 9:25
  it's gonna turn out for the best as she looks like the overwhelming favorite to win.
• 9:29
  Now,
• 9:30
  let me go over to the other side.
• 9:31
  This is another contract I've talked to you about multiple times over the past,
• 9:34
  you know,
• 9:35
  uh,
• 9:35
  50 episodes.
• 9:37
  Uh,
• 9:37
  Florida Republican governor nominee.
• 9:40
  Here it is.
• 9:40
  This is,
• 9:41
  uh,
• 9:41
  Byron Donalds.
• 9:42
  Now,
• 9:43
  this one has had
• 9:45
  an interesting run because Donald's currently at 98.9%. Kind
• 9:49
  of fascinating that he's actually ahead of Moody,
• 9:51
  who's at 98.2%.
• 9:53
  I don't really understand that one,
• 9:55
  honestly.
• 9:55
  But,
• 9:56
  uh,
• 9:56
  you know,
• 9:56
  Donald's is the overwhelming favorite.
• 9:58
  He's leading in all of these polls.
• 10:00
  Uh,
• 10:01
  we started talking about this.
• 10:02
  I went back and looked at when the first time I bought this was today,
• 10:05
  it was at 83.9.
• 10:07
  So we've ridden this up from 83.9% to 98.9% with you,
• 10:10
  hopefully.
• 10:11
  Uh,
• 10:11
  and,
• 10:12
  uh,
• 10:12
  that has been over,
• 10:13
  that goes back to March is when I first bought that.
• 10:16
  So,
• 10:16
  I've been buying,
• 10:17
  adding to my position for a long time.
• 10:18
  Also,
• 10:19
  no on James Fishback was another big,
• 10:21
  I think that might be my,
• 10:22
  outside of Ashley Moody,
• 10:24
  maybe my biggest position that I have right now is a no James Fishback position.
• 10:27
  He's at 1.1%. I don't think
• 10:29
  this is going to be a particularly close election.
• 10:31
  I think Donald's is going to win this one.
• 10:33
  Relatively easily
• 10:35
  tomorrow,
• 10:35
  but it brought up an interesting thing because here we are at 98.9,
• 10:38
  and this is something I dealt with last week
• 10:40
  with uh Francesca Hong.
• 10:41
  I do expect
• 10:42
  Donald's to pop into the 99
• 10:44
  uh area uh here in the next 24 hours before these results even come out.
• 10:50
  And I will probably sell in the ninety-nines rather
• 10:52
  than wait for this whole thing to end.
• 10:54
  Um,
• 10:55
  you know,
• 10:55
  and that's partially a Francesca Hong
• 10:57
  lesson,
• 10:58
  because I could have taken a profit on Francesca Hong.
• 11:00
  I could have sold a small,
• 11:02
  small loss on her.
• 11:02
  Instead,
• 11:03
  I read that all the way to the,
• 11:04
  the that all the way to the bottom,
• 11:05
  which by the way,
• 11:06
  gave us a 17th Amendment to the predictable Constitution.
• 11:09
  17th,
• 11:09
  of course,
• 11:10
  a smaller loss is a win.
• 11:12
  A very important thing to remember when you,
• 11:15
  uh,
• 11:15
  maybe got something
• 11:16
  wrong or you're a little bit now shaky on it.
• 11:19
  It's OK to lose a few bucks rather than riding it all the way to 0.
• 11:21
  Very difficult for me to do.
• 11:23
  I'm trying to remind myself right here.
• 11:24
  I got a little card on my desk that says 17th Amendment,
• 11:26
  a smaller losses win.
• 11:28
  Important thing to remember.
• 11:29
  I don't think that's gonna be the case with Donald's tomorrow.
• 11:31
  Uh,
• 11:31
  I was much more nervous about Hong going into this than I,
• 11:34
  you know,
• 11:35
  I mean,
• 11:35
  I thought she was gonna win.
• 11:36
  I,
• 11:36
  I did think it was gonna be closer than 20 points.
• 11:38
  I thought maybe it might be 6.
• 11:40
  The fact that she would lose,
• 11:41
  I honestly didn't really enter my mind until
• 11:44
  about an hour into the results coming out.
• 11:46
  I still thought she was gonna come back and win once certain counties reported.
• 11:49
  It was a weird election.
• 11:50
  We'll get into some more details on that here in a second.
• 11:53
  But I wanna highlight something that,
• 11:54
  uh,
• 11:54
  PMT said,
• 11:55
  uh,
• 11:55
  we've known on,
• 11:56
  uh,
• 11:57
  on the line as Pred M trader on,
• 11:59
  uh,
• 12:00
  uh,
• 12:00
  on Twitter,
• 12:01
  but he is a,
• 12:02
  he does mostly,
• 12:02
  I mean he trades all sorts of stuff.
• 12:04
  He's kind of known for his mention market trading,
• 12:06
  very,
• 12:06
  very good at that.
• 12:07
  But he says this,
• 12:08
  and this is,
• 12:08
  this is true.
• 12:09
  And if you're new to prediction markets,
• 12:11
  it is a new frontier.
• 12:14
  Because I've been in prediction markets since at least 2014,
• 12:17
  um,
• 12:18
  and
• 12:19
  this sort of stuff happened
• 12:20
  all the time until recently.
• 12:22
  Let me give you what he said.
• 12:23
  He said,
• 12:24
  back in my day,
• 12:25
  someone with the social media virality of fishback would easily be at 10 to 20%.
• 12:30
  Nowadays,
• 12:30
  you got a million dollars happy to take 1%,
• 12:33
  shaking my head.
• 12:34
  Um,
• 12:35
  so this is the point he's making is
• 12:37
  Fishback is at 1.1%,
• 12:39
  I think was what we just saw on the live market,
• 12:40
  1.1%,
• 12:41
  1.2%.
• 12:42
  This is a guy who gets a lot of social media attention.
• 12:45
  He's been talked about a lot.
• 12:47
  He's been,
• 12:47
  you know,
• 12:47
  some people call him anti-Semitic and all these other things.
• 12:51
  Um,
• 12:51
  he's the type of guy that I don't think has any chance of winning this,
• 12:54
  really.
• 12:54
  Uh,
• 12:55
  I don't think he's going to win this election.
• 12:56
  I will be shocked if he,
• 12:58
  uh,
• 12:58
  honestly comes close to winning this election.
• 13:01
  Um,
• 13:02
  this is unlike,
• 13:03
  you know,
• 13:03
  uh,
• 13:03
  uh,
• 13:04
  James Crowley in Wisconsin,
• 13:06
  who was a,
• 13:06
  uh,
• 13:07
  uh,
• 13:07
  uh,
• 13:07
  supported by the establishment.
• 13:09
  He was endorsed by the current governor of the state.
• 13:12
  Uh,
• 13:13
  he was,
• 13:13
  uh,
• 13:13
  he had tons and tons of money coming in for his campaign.
• 13:17
  He was the only guy really there left
• 13:19
  to oppose this,
• 13:20
  um,
• 13:21
  seen as a weak candidate in a general election,
• 13:24
  Francesca Hong.
• 13:25
  This is not that situation at all in Florida.
• 13:27
  Donald's is generally speaking,
• 13:29
  a well-regarded guy on the right.
• 13:31
  Donald Trump has supported him the entire time,
• 13:34
  uh,
• 13:34
  been very early in supporting him.
• 13:36
  Uh,
• 13:37
  James Fishback has kind of gone viral because he gets online a lot.
• 13:40
  He makes a lot of kind of outlandish
• 13:42
  statements that some people say are terrible and,
• 13:44
  and,
• 13:44
  and controversial.
• 13:46
  Frankly,
• 13:46
  like,
• 13:47
  you know,
• 13:47
  uh,
• 13:48
  you know,
• 13:48
  I would tend to agree with some of that analysis,
• 13:50
  but that's not the point here.
• 13:51
  The point is,
• 13:51
  who are you gonna pick?
• 13:52
  Uh,
• 13:52
  who's going to win?
• 13:54
  And I think that,
• 13:55
  the truth is,
• 13:56
  uh,
• 13:56
  Donald's is gonna win this,
• 13:57
  and we've been talking about that for months and months and months.
• 14:00
  There there was a time in prediction markets
• 14:03
  where
• 14:03
  you could make that assessment today
• 14:05
  and get 10 and 20% of your money.
• 14:08
  This stuff is drying up a lot faster than it used to.
• 14:10
  The markets are getting much,
• 14:11
  much smarter.
• 14:12
  To the extent,
• 14:13
  I think even in the Francesca Hong thing,
• 14:15
  we'll talk about this in the next segment a little bit,
• 14:17
  but like,
• 14:17
  they're almost getting too smart for their own good at times,
• 14:20
  and that can almost be,
• 14:21
  uh,
• 14:21
  a problem.
• 14:23
  In this particular situation.
• 14:25
  You had to be out ahead of this market.
• 14:28
  It's one of the reasons why we talked about it on multiple live streams months ago.
• 14:32
  We talked about it with Michelle Tafoya last week,
• 14:34
  right?
• 14:35
  We wanted you to get 1015,
• 14:36
  20%.
• 14:37
  To do that,
• 14:37
  you had to be months ahead of this.
• 14:40
  It's no longer you could just walk in the night
• 14:42
  before the election and pick up your 10 or 23%.
• 14:45
  Those days seemingly are gone.
• 14:47
  It's one of the reasons why I think if you are trading these markets at any,
• 14:50
  uh,
• 14:51
  higher level,
• 14:51
  like as far as actual money that you,
• 14:53
  you care about winning or losing.
• 14:55
  Uh,
• 14:55
  I,
• 14:55
  you know,
• 14:56
  that's why I think the premium subscription is worth your time to
• 14:58
  get those picks early to get out in front of these things because
• 15:01
  it's getting harder and harder to pick this stuff up.
• 15:03
  Um,
• 15:04
  I wanna show you,
• 15:05
  can I show you the polls?
• 15:06
  We have the New York Times polls here of,
• 15:08
  of what this race looks like.
• 15:09
  And again,
• 15:09
  you can,
• 15:10
  you can dismiss polls all you want.
• 15:11
  Um,
• 15:12
  there's been good reason to do this lately.
• 15:14
  There's not a super recent poll.
• 15:16
  Uh,
• 15:17
  but Donalds has led pretty much every poll
• 15:19
  by a very large margin,
• 15:20
  50 to 16 over Collins,
• 15:22
  who's actually in second,
• 15:23
  Fishback in third with 12%.
• 15:24
  Next poll,
• 15:25
  49,
• 15:26
  uh,
• 15:26
  to 18 for Collins,
• 15:28
  8% for Renner,
• 15:29
  only 4% for Fishback in that particular poll.
• 15:31
  Remember these numbers for Fishback if you,
• 15:33
  if you will.
• 15:34
  Donald's,
• 15:34
  uh,
• 15:35
  32 to 19 in,
• 15:36
  in,
• 15:37
  uh,
• 15:37
  late July,
• 15:38
  13% for Fishback in that one.
• 15:40
  Um,
• 15:40
  the other thing I would just point you out as you're looking at these fish back 9%,
• 15:44
  fishback 12%.
• 15:45
  He's around 10% in most of these polls.
• 15:47
  Only one was he
• 15:49
  the sub,
• 15:49
  uh,
• 15:50
  for,
• 15:50
  uh,
• 15:50
  10% by a significant amount.
• 15:52
  But just scroll back up on these,
• 15:53
  31% don't know,
• 15:54
  23%.
• 15:55
  don't know.
• 15:56
  Uh,
• 15:56
  14% don't know,
• 15:58
  17% don't know,
• 15:59
  32% don't know.
• 16:00
  Lots of undecided in these polls.
• 16:02
  The reason I bring that up is I wanna
• 16:03
  bring up one interesting market that I think has some
• 16:06
  value for you potentially tomorrow,
• 16:07
  which is James Fishback vote percentage markets.
• 16:11
  Uh,
• 16:11
  all right,
• 16:11
  we're diving a little bit deeper.
• 16:12
  This is just wins and losses.
• 16:13
  So,
• 16:14
  uh,
• 16:14
  you might not care particularly about this if you're only caring about who wins.
• 16:18
  But if you're in the markets,
• 16:19
  a lot of times when you have a 98,
• 16:21
  99% favorite,
• 16:23
  where you have to go is either into the margin markets,
• 16:25
  which is which candidate is going to win by and by how much,
• 16:28
  and the vote percent markets,
• 16:30
  which are,
• 16:30
  will a candidate clear a certain vote percentage.
• 16:33
  Can you bring up the Fishback one if we have to have that handy?
• 16:35
  This is James Fishback,
• 16:36
  who's,
• 16:36
  again,
• 16:37
  a viral candidate.
• 16:38
  His projection right now,
• 16:40
  uh,
• 16:40
  the markets are saying about 10.7% is what they believe
• 16:44
  overall.
• 16:45
  But if you scroll down a little bit here,
• 16:46
  Adam,
• 16:46
  you'll see.
• 16:47
  Uh,
• 16:47
  each market here.
• 16:48
  Give me the 12 more,
• 16:49
  yeah,
• 16:49
  show them all,
• 16:49
  show me all these.
• 16:50
  So,
• 16:50
  at least 1%.
• 16:52
  This actually was an interesting,
• 16:54
  the one I wish I didn't bail on because
• 16:56
  he was in a legal battle
• 16:58
  for any of his votes to count.
• 17:00
  He apparently he did not actually meet the vote,
• 17:02
  uh,
• 17:03
  the,
• 17:03
  uh,
• 17:04
  residency requirements to run for governor.
• 17:06
  And I think honestly,
• 17:07
  that was probably true.
• 17:08
  I mean,
• 17:09
  he seemed to move to Washington DC during COVID.
• 17:12
  You know,
• 17:13
  but I kind of was,
• 17:14
  my,
• 17:14
  my belief was they're not gonna disqualify him over that.
• 17:18
  It was COVID and it was weird.
• 17:19
  He seemed to have voted in DC during an election that probably he
• 17:23
  shouldn't have if it was going,
• 17:24
  if he's going to qualify for governor.
• 17:26
  Long story short,
• 17:27
  Uh,
• 17:27
  I bought some shares of at least 1%,
• 17:30
  which was about a 50/50 chance at the time
• 17:32
  because people weren't sure how that ruling would go,
• 17:34
  and then I chickened out and sold it for basically no,
• 17:37
  just even
• 17:37
  it wound up going up,
• 17:38
  so I should have,
• 17:39
  I should have held it,
• 17:40
  but I was worried about just projecting what
• 17:42
  my opinion of the court's decision without really understanding the details.
• 17:45
  Uh,
• 17:46
  anyway,
• 17:46
  that's just me complaining.
• 17:48
  The bottom line is if he's in this election,
• 17:49
  which he is,
• 17:50
  his votes will count.
• 17:51
  He's certainly gonna clear 1%,
• 17:53
  which is why it showed at 99.7%.
• 17:55
  But you saw those polls,
• 17:56
  he's at 10 to 12% in almost every poll.
• 18:00
  And you see,
• 18:01
  uh,
• 18:02
  as this gets,
• 18:03
  he's at,
• 18:03
  uh,
• 18:04
  his chances of getting at least 5%,
• 18:05
  for example,
• 18:06
  are
• 18:07
  93%.
• 18:08
  Um,
• 18:09
  so there's a little bit of profit there.
• 18:10
  Is it 6,
• 18:10
  he's gonna get 6%?
• 18:11
  Well,
• 18:11
  now it's 87% chance.
• 18:13
  Does he get to 7?
• 18:14
  That's a 79% chance of happening,
• 18:16
  and so on and so on and so on.
• 18:17
  If you go to 10% though,
• 18:19
  you're looking at almost doubling your money at 10%,
• 18:22
  and
• 18:23
  he's been about at 10% in every poll,
• 18:25
  which would make sense,
• 18:26
  right?
• 18:26
  Like,
• 18:26
  OK,
• 18:28
  every poll saying he's about 10%.
• 18:30
  These markets are saying there's about a 50/50,
• 18:31
  a little over 50% chance he'll get over 10%.
• 18:34
  But if you add on to that,
• 18:36
  the undecideds,
• 18:36
  which are,
• 18:37
  you know,
• 18:38
  sometimes as much as 30% in these polls,
• 18:40
  you have to figure he's going to pull up some of those people.
• 18:44
  So,
• 18:45
  these,
• 18:45
  this is the interesting area.
• 18:47
  Like,
• 18:47
  I think it's possible he even hits some of these like 1314,
• 18:51
  15% markets,
• 18:53
  even though I don't think he's gonna be competitive to win.
• 18:55
  You know,
• 18:56
  uh,
• 18:56
  15%,
• 18:57
  which again,
• 18:57
  is a long shot.
• 18:58
  I don't,
• 18:58
  you know,
• 18:59
  you're,
• 18:59
  you're risking a little bit here.
• 19:01
  You're not,
• 19:01
  you know,
• 19:01
  you're getting cheaper shares here.
• 19:04
  Will it get to 15?
• 19:05
  There's only a 19% chance of that happening.
• 19:09
  That might be a little high,
• 19:10
  but there could be some longshot,
• 19:12
  money,
• 19:13
  and I do feel like there's definitely profit in that 5%,
• 19:15
  6%,
• 19:16
  7% area that's possible.
• 19:18
  Uh,
• 19:18
  so I do have positions kind of,
• 19:20
  they,
• 19:21
  they start a little bit bigger,
• 19:22
  uh,
• 19:22
  as I'm more sure,
• 19:23
  and they get a little bit smaller,
• 19:24
  mostly marker positions in this sort of area,
• 19:26
  but I do think there's a chance
• 19:28
  watching him come out that he could hit some of these numbers
• 19:31
  that are a little bit higher.
• 19:32
  I would not go above 15.
• 19:35
  Uh,
• 19:35
  it's possible.
• 19:36
  It's not impossible.
• 19:37
  I mean,
• 19:37
  if he's at,
• 19:38
  If his real percentage is at 12 or 13% in these polls,
• 19:41
  and there's 30% undecided,
• 19:43
  he could pick up
• 19:44
  a third of those.
• 19:45
  I mean,
• 19:45
  it's not impossible,
• 19:47
  though I,
• 19:47
  I tend to doubt it.
• 19:48
  I think Bob Donald's will,
• 19:49
  will do pretty well.
• 19:50
  And there's some Donald's markets that are,
• 19:52
  you know,
• 19:52
  looking at him in the 60s and 70s that are interesting as well.
• 19:55
  So,
• 19:56
  that's something if you're in,
• 19:57
  you're trading these markets,
• 19:58
  if you like that sort of stuff,
• 19:59
  I'd say you could dig into that.
• 20:00
  And then I just want to highlight one other thing as far as strategy goes.
• 20:04
  Um,
• 20:04
  there's only a few more primaries left.
• 20:06
  One of the reasons why you don't invest in the November elections super early
• 20:11
  is because,
• 20:12
  uh,
• 20:13
  you have,
• 20:13
  uh,
• 20:14
  you have to think about a couple of our constitutional amendments.
• 20:16
  Uh,
• 20:17
  the Seventh Amendment,
• 20:17
  which is,
• 20:18
  which is know your APR.
• 20:19
  What is your annual percentage rate?
• 20:21
  What are you getting on this,
• 20:22
  right?
• 20:22
  If you,
• 20:23
  if you're only getting a few points,
• 20:24
  56 points,
• 20:25
  but you're holding it for 6 or 7 months.
• 20:28
  You know,
• 20:28
  it's not as sexy as being able to take
• 20:31
  a few percent
• 20:32
  each week in a primary.
• 20:33
  We can take that money,
• 20:34
  we could put,
• 20:35
  if you have 100 bucks,
• 20:36
  you can make $5 and you got 105 bucks to go the next time,
• 20:38
  you turn it into 111,
• 20:39
  112.
• 20:40
  Then the next week you turn another 5%,
• 20:42
  you turn that to 117,
• 20:43
  118%.
• 20:44
  And by the way,
• 20:44
  the time we get to November,
• 20:45
  you got a lot more money to invest in those elections.
• 20:48
  When these primaries end though,
• 20:50
  people are gonna start putting money into these,
• 20:52
  uh,
• 20:52
  November
• 20:53
  markets.
• 20:54
  We're now less than 3 months away and it's start to,
• 20:56
  starting the time to really take some of that easier money
• 20:59
  off the table
• 21:00
  in those election markets.
• 21:01
  Can you give me,
• 21:01
  uh,
• 21:01
  do we have like a map,
• 21:02
  one of the map views,
• 21:03
  either Calci or poly market?
• 21:04
  What do we have here,
• 21:05
  Adam?
• 21:06
  Uh,
• 21:06
  here's a,
• 21:06
  this is one of the map views of the Senate,
• 21:08
  OK?
• 21:09
  Just to give you,
• 21:09
  uh,
• 21:09
  this is Calci's version of this map.
• 21:12
  And if you see here,
• 21:13
  what they do is give you the typical thing that you're expecting,
• 21:16
  right?
• 21:16
  The red and blue states,
• 21:17
  who's favored.
• 21:18
  And then you see,
• 21:19
  uh,
• 21:19
  some of the yellow states which are,
• 21:21
  I don't know if yellow or orange,
• 21:22
  kind of looks like a
• 21:24
  I don't know,
• 21:24
  like a,
• 21:25
  a mustard yellow,
• 21:27
  let's call it.
• 21:28
  So the mustard yellow is sort of those toss-up type states.
• 21:30
  Those are the states that will probably decide the Senate,
• 21:33
  as you see,
• 21:33
  Texas,
• 21:34
  very slight favorite,
• 21:35
  uh,
• 21:35
  for the Republicans,
• 21:36
  uh,
• 21:37
  Alaska,
• 21:37
  slight favorite for the Democrats,
• 21:39
  uh,
• 21:40
  you know,
• 21:40
  you kind of go through this and you can,
• 21:41
  you can check through that.
• 21:42
  It's a nice easy way to kind of get a view of the Senate.
• 21:45
  When you're looking at the
• 21:47
  value here,
• 21:48
  let me show you a state like Idaho,
• 21:49
  for example.
• 21:50
  Now,
• 21:50
  Jim Risch is a sitting,
• 21:52
  sitting senator in Idaho.
• 21:53
  Um,
• 21:54
  you do know where Idaho is on the map,
• 21:55
  right?
• 21:55
  I'm not surprising you with this,
• 21:57
  right,
• 21:57
  Adam?
• 21:57
  OK,
• 21:58
  good.
• 21:58
  Uh,
• 21:58
  you see,
• 21:59
  uh,
• 21:59
  Jim Risch at 92% to win.
• 22:02
  Todd Achilles
• 22:03
  is at 8%.
• 22:05
  Look,
• 22:07
  The First Amendment to our Constitution is a sure thing,
• 22:09
  always has air quotes.
• 22:11
  OK?
• 22:11
  A sure thing is never a sure thing,
• 22:13
  but
• 22:13
  it would be.
• 22:15
  Monumentally stunning if Jim Risch were to lose this race.
• 22:19
  And now you're thinking about 8% to be able to to win over,
• 22:23
  let's say,
• 22:24
  a period of uh several
• 22:27
  uh months,
• 22:28
  right?
• 22:29
  Less than 3 months.
• 22:30
  So your 8% over 3 months would be 32%
• 22:33
  APR.
• 22:34
  That's a nice return
• 22:36
  on a race like that.
• 22:38
  I'll give you,
• 22:38
  uh,
• 22:39
  a couple of others.
• 22:39
  Uh,
• 22:40
  Mississippi,
• 22:40
  for example.
• 22:41
  Mississippi,
• 22:42
  Cindy Hyde-Smith is there.
• 22:43
  She's a 92% favorite.
• 22:44
  Again,
• 22:45
  it would be stunning if she were to lose this race.
• 22:47
  South Dakota,
• 22:48
  uh,
• 22:48
  is Jim,
• 22:48
  is,
• 22:49
  uh,
• 22:49
  Rounds,
• 22:50
  who's,
• 22:50
  uh,
• 22:51
  uh,
• 22:51
  we know where South Dakota is,
• 22:52
  there it is.
• 22:52
  He's at 93%.
• 22:53
  Again,
• 22:54
  7% favorite.
• 22:54
  These are all
• 22:56
  there for the taking,
• 22:58
  and frankly would be absolutely stunning if any of them went the opposite way.
• 23:03
  Look at,
• 23:03
  uh,
• 23:04
  Oregon,
• 23:04
  uh,
• 23:05
  let's go to,
• 23:05
  uh,
• 23:06
  give me New Mexico is another good example on the left.
• 23:08
  The chances
• 23:09
  of,
• 23:09
  uh,
• 23:09
  a sitting
• 23:11
  Democratic senator in New Mexico losing,
• 23:13
  uh,
• 23:13
  now it says 94% on the map,
• 23:15
  it says 98% when you bring it up.
• 23:16
  I'm not sure which one it is,
• 23:17
  honestly,
• 23:18
  uh,
• 23:18
  right now,
• 23:19
  but you know,
• 23:19
  if you can get 6%
• 23:20
  in a Democratic year
• 23:22
  in New Mexico,
• 23:24
  that's a nice
• 23:25
  thing to pocket right now.
• 23:26
  Like,
• 23:26
  take that,
• 23:27
  pocket it.
• 23:28
  Um,
• 23:28
  you know,
• 23:29
  a couple of other races,
• 23:30
  as you get a little bit more,
• 23:31
  uh,
• 23:32
  down the line,
• 23:33
  you start seeing these in the 80s and 90s.
• 23:35
  Um,
• 23:36
  they're nice to take,
• 23:38
  especially if you can get that now because that's the
• 23:40
  type of value that will probably go away relatively quickly.
• 23:42
  I would say Minnesota is another one.
• 23:44
  I know a lot of people,
• 23:45
  there's hopes there
• 23:46
  in Minnesota,
• 23:47
  but you look at Minnesota,
• 23:48
  90% chance,
• 23:50
  uh,
• 23:50
  for,
• 23:51
  uh,
• 23:51
  Peggy Flanagan.
• 23:52
  She's at 88 right now over Michelle Tafoya.
• 23:53
  I really like Michelle Tafoya.
• 23:55
  I would really like Michelle Tafoya to win that race.
• 23:57
  Chances of her winning in Minnesota are not great.
• 24:00
  And there's a little more risk there than I would say in Idaho,
• 24:03
  but,
• 24:03
  uh,
• 24:03
  in a,
• 24:04
  in a Democratic year,
• 24:05
  the chances of a,
• 24:06
  an upset here in a state like that are,
• 24:09
  it's unlikely.
• 24:10
  So getting 12%
• 24:11
  over 3 months,
• 24:12
  it's actually less than 3 months,
• 24:13
  so these numbers would be slightly higher,
• 24:15
  but you're talking about.
• 24:16
  You know,
• 24:17
  nearly 50%,
• 24:18
  probably a little bit over 50%
• 24:19
  APR
• 24:20
  for a race like this,
• 24:22
  kind of nice.
• 24:23
  Look for these opportunities now.
• 24:25
  This is one of the reasons why I also
• 24:26
  talk about when we're talking about these toss-up races,
• 24:28
  I like Iowa quite a bit,
• 24:30
  uh,
• 24:30
  Iowa and Ashley Hinson,
• 24:31
  she's at 56%.
• 24:33
  Um,
• 24:34
  go,
• 24:34
  let's go to,
• 24:35
  what do we have poly market up as well?
• 24:36
  I don't know if poly market is,
• 24:37
  uh,
• 24:37
  has anything,
• 24:38
  uh,
• 24:38
  different,
• 24:39
  but let me show you a couple of these races as well on the polymarket side.
• 24:42
  Um,
• 24:43
  uh,
• 24:43
  do they have the governor's ones?
• 24:44
  I don't know how easy that is to click around,
• 24:46
  uh,
• 24:47
  there.
• 24:47
  Do we have,
• 24:47
  uh,
• 24:48
  the 88% chance to take the house,
• 24:49
  they say,
• 24:49
  which is pretty freaking high,
• 24:51
  51% chance now Democrats take the Senate,
• 24:53
  uh,
• 24:53
  there,
• 24:54
  is there a governor's page to that?
• 24:55
  I don't know if there is.
• 24:56
  If not,
• 24:56
  we can go back to the Clihi one,
• 24:57
  but
• 24:58
  there's a couple of good breakdowns on both sites.
• 25:01
  Uh,
• 25:01
  I like that view
• 25:02
  because you can kind of see just a couple of
• 25:04
  races where you could pick these things off early.
• 25:06
  Some of these profits will hang around for a while.
• 25:08
  A state like Texas is gonna be probably in that 50/50 range for a little bit.
• 25:13
  You have time on that one,
• 25:14
  you can see what happens.
• 25:15
  Here are the gubernatorial races and like,
• 25:17
  look at a state like,
• 25:18
  uh,
• 25:19
  Texas is a good one here,
• 25:20
  if you can find Texas on this particular list.
• 25:24
  Texas,
• 25:25
  uh,
• 25:25
  is at
• 25:25
  86% Republicans to win.
• 25:28
  Now,
• 25:29
  the Senate race is getting all the,
• 25:30
  the,
• 25:30
  the,
• 25:31
  the spiciness because,
• 25:32
  um,
• 25:33
  basically,
• 25:34
  you know,
• 25:34
  they think Tallarico is a good candidate.
• 25:35
  I tend to disagree with that,
• 25:37
  but Paxson does have his issues and because Paxson's vulnerable there,
• 25:40
  it's a 50/50 race.
• 25:42
  Because of that,
• 25:42
  you're getting polling that's showing
• 25:44
  a guy like,
• 25:45
  uh,
• 25:45
  Greg Abbott,
• 25:46
  who has won multiple terms here,
• 25:48
  uh,
• 25:49
  and is the overwhelming favorite,
• 25:50
  I think,
• 25:50
  to win this race,
• 25:51
  even though polls show with,
• 25:52
  you know,
• 25:53
  3 to 5 points,
• 25:54
  he's leading right now.
• 25:55
  Uh,
• 25:56
  he's at 86.
• 25:57
  Is there value there?
• 25:58
  I think the answer to that
• 25:59
  is yes.
• 26:00
  Uh,
• 26:00
  uh,
• 26:00
  you know,
• 26:01
  again,
• 26:02
  14% over 3 months,
• 26:03
  you're talking about a 56% APR
• 26:06
  in a race of Texas governor where you don't have the weaknesses of a,
• 26:09
  of a Ken Paxton as a candidate.
• 26:11
  You know,
• 26:12
  um,
• 26:12
  uh,
• 26:13
  Vermont governor,
• 26:14
  I mean,
• 26:14
  uh,
• 26:14
  you know,
• 26:14
  I don't know,
• 26:14
  I haven't seen any polling on that,
• 26:16
  but,
• 26:16
  uh,
• 26:16
  that's a Republican in Vermont.
• 26:18
  Uh,
• 26:19
  Scott,
• 26:20
  Phil Scott,
• 26:20
  very,
• 26:21
  very popular there,
• 26:21
  one of the most popular governors in the country.
• 26:24
  Now,
• 26:24
  you have the catastrophic outcomes of really
• 26:27
  bad Republican year that could theoretically sink
• 26:30
  a Scott,
• 26:31
  but like a 10% yield in less than in less than 3 months,
• 26:35
  you're talking about 40,
• 26:36
  50%
• 26:36
  APR.
• 26:38
  There,
• 26:38
  these type of opportunities are
• 26:40
  all literally
• 26:41
  all over the map right now.
• 26:44
  All over the freaking map.
• 26:45
  And if you get nervous about them,
• 26:47
  I'm gonna say this cause,
• 26:48
  you know,
• 26:48
  I'm,
• 26:48
  I'm a conservative.
• 26:49
  I don't apologize for that,
• 26:51
  but
• 26:52
  If you're worried,
• 26:52
  if you see one that's a 90% Republican,
• 26:54
  90% Democrat,
• 26:55
  a lot of times the Democrat one is even safer because you're most likely,
• 26:59
  the tide of this election is going to lean more Democrat,
• 27:02
  uh,
• 27:02
  and if that's true,
• 27:03
  uh,
• 27:03
  the Democrats are gonna be a little bit more
• 27:05
  safer when you're talking the 80 to 90% range,
• 27:07
  but those opportunities are freaking all over the place right now.
• 27:11
  And you can hop into that,
• 27:12
  and if you just wanna lock yourself in on some of your capital,
• 27:14
  you want to keep some of it free.
• 27:15
  But lock some of those things in so they just
• 27:17
  kind of churn and churn and churn and churn.
• 27:19
  By the time we get closer to the election,
• 27:20
  a lot of those elections are going to be instead of 88 to 92,
• 27:24
  they're gonna be 96 to 99.
• 27:27
  You can take your money,
• 27:28
  you can sell out of that and get into a more interesting election at that time,
• 27:31
  but you're going to have that run,
• 27:33
  uh,
• 27:33
  over the next few weeks
• 27:35
  of those,
• 27:36
  uh,
• 27:37
  races that we're talking about ticking up very slowly,
• 27:39
  uh,
• 27:40
  over that time.
• 27:41
  And when we,
• 27:41
  once we hit a lot of these people,
• 27:43
  big money
• 27:43
  has money in these primaries.
• 27:45
  Um,
• 27:45
  when they are done with these primaries,
• 27:47
  they're gonna start going into that type of race,
• 27:48
  I think,
• 27:49
  early on.
• 27:50
  Um,
• 27:50
  so,
• 27:50
  you know,
• 27:51
  a lot of these people,
• 27:51
  and I'm one of them honestly,
• 27:53
  who are in prediction markets and,
• 27:54
  you know,
• 27:55
  spend a decent amount of money,
• 27:56
  and it's,
• 27:56
  it's my job,
• 27:57
  right?
• 27:57
  This is what I'm doing all the time.
• 27:59
  So this might not be what you're doing,
• 28:00
  but,
• 28:00
  and that's totally OK.
• 28:02
  But when we're talking about,
• 28:03
  uh,
• 28:04
  these markets,
• 28:05
  um,
• 28:05
  I don't,
• 28:06
  like,
• 28:07
  it's fun to talk about the Texas elections,
• 28:09
  and I think there's some value there still in Paxton.
• 28:11
  Um,
• 28:12
  you know,
• 28:12
  at 52%.
• 28:13
  But like most of the time,
• 28:14
  I'm not going after the,
• 28:15
  I don't want 50/50 things.
• 28:17
  I don't want risk like that.
• 28:18
  There's a lot of these things where you can just pick away and just,
• 28:21
  you know,
• 28:21
  say,
• 28:21
  hey this is actually,
• 28:22
  I think that's a 96,
• 28:23
  97,
• 28:23
  98%
• 28:24
  chance of happening,
• 28:25
  not
• 28:26
  88%.
• 28:26
  And you get that value and just lock in that
• 28:28
  value over and over and over and over again.
• 28:30
  It's much easier to repeat
• 28:31
  and you don't have those
• 28:32
  nights where you're having mild heart attacks as the votes are being counted.
• 28:35
  OK,
• 28:35
  I gotta take a break.
• 28:36
  I won't wait too long there.
• 28:37
  Um,
• 28:37
  so I apologize for that.
• 28:38
  We're gonna take a break.
• 28:39
  We're gonna come back on the other side
• 28:40
  with,
• 28:41
  uh,
• 28:42
  polling errors.
• 28:43
  What happened in Wisconsin?
• 28:44
  What can we learn going forward?
• 28:47
  Back with more in a second.
• 29:03
  So,
• 29:04
  if you missed last week's show,
• 29:05
  you may not know
• 29:07
  that I did get caught with my Hong in hand last week,
• 29:11
  and I was not happy about that.
• 29:13
  Francesca Hong,
• 29:14
  the candidate in.
• 29:15
  Wisconsin,
• 29:17
  heavy favorite to win.
• 29:18
  I held on to my position too long
• 29:21
  and uh wound up eating up most of my
• 29:24
  profits from an otherwise very successful uh last primary
• 29:29
  election.
• 29:29
  It was one of the bigger elections,
• 29:30
  I think I had 29 different positions.
• 29:32
  We went 27 and 2 and I barely made any money
• 29:35
  because I was an idiot on this one,
• 29:36
  and this is something of course important to remember.
• 29:39
  Uh,
• 29:40
  so we're kind of looking at this,
• 29:41
  and I wanna make sure we don't just pass by that
• 29:44
  consequence or that,
• 29:45
  that,
• 29:45
  that occurrence because it was a really big deal.
• 29:48
  Very rarely
• 29:49
  do we get surprised like we did on,
• 29:51
  uh,
• 29:51
  on Tuesday.
• 29:53
  Uh,
• 29:53
  and the reason wasn't just polling.
• 29:55
  We,
• 29:55
  we also had some assumptions about the race,
• 29:57
  uh,
• 29:57
  that,
• 29:57
  you know,
• 29:58
  may or may not have been,
• 29:59
  uh,
• 29:59
  correct,
• 29:59
  which of course was
• 30:01
  the sort of this progressive wave.
• 30:02
  We've been following that in state after state after state.
• 30:05
  Uh,
• 30:05
  and we kind of got on that bandwagon and maybe missed some of the details here.
• 30:10
  And I wanna go over a little bit of this,
• 30:11
  uh,
• 30:12
  this look back from the New York Times,
• 30:14
  uh,
• 30:14
  how the polls got it so wrong in Wisconsin
• 30:16
  with Francesca Hong.
• 30:18
  As you know,
• 30:19
  she was leading on average in these polls by about 19% points.
• 30:22
  And so one of the things that I do when I,
• 30:24
  when I look at this,
• 30:25
  you look at multiple other things other than polls.
• 30:27
  But when I'm just considering polls,
• 30:29
  I don't,
• 30:30
  I,
• 30:30
  I have very
• 30:31
  I like polls because I do think they give us information,
• 30:33
  but they are blunt objects,
• 30:35
  not surgical instruments.
• 30:37
  They tell us generalities about races.
• 30:39
  And so when you look at something and you see a,
• 30:42
  a 2-point lead,
• 30:44
  I don't take that as telling me that it's a two-point lead.
• 30:46
  Uh,
• 30:46
  I take that as telling me we don't know,
• 30:48
  right?
• 30:48
  Like a 2-point lead is not a two-point lead.
• 30:50
  A 2-point lead is a,
• 30:51
  huh,
• 30:52
  who knows,
• 30:52
  a shoulder shrug.
• 30:53
  I don't know.
• 30:53
  Anything could happen.
• 30:54
  When it's a 5 or 6-point lead,
• 30:56
  you start getting into,
• 30:56
  well,
• 30:56
  maybe we have a little bit of a leaner idea,
• 30:59
  but still,
• 30:59
  anything can happen.
• 31:00
  You get up to 10 points,
• 31:02
  you start thinking,
• 31:02
  OK,
• 31:02
  there's,
• 31:03
  especially if there's a lot of polls that show that same thing,
• 31:06
  you start getting a little bit more confident,
• 31:07
  but you still see there are outliers that,
• 31:10
  that go the other way.
• 31:11
  When you start getting into 19 or 20 points,
• 31:13
  that's so many layers of separation.
• 31:16
  When it was showing up in multiple polls
• 31:18
  that were statewide.
• 31:20
  I started,
• 31:20
  you know,
• 31:20
  you get to that point where it makes you a little bit more confident,
• 31:23
  especially when it aligns with your other views on the race,
• 31:25
  right?
• 31:26
  The fact that the Democrats have been choosing the more
• 31:28
  liberal candidate over and over and over and over again,
• 31:30
  the Democratic Socialist.
• 31:32
  Generally speaking,
• 31:32
  we just saw that happen
• 31:34
  even in Michigan.
• 31:35
  One of the things I,
• 31:36
  that did cause me hesitation,
• 31:37
  so I didn't make my position too big on Francesca Hong was
• 31:41
  what we saw
• 31:42
  in Michigan the week before,
• 31:44
  where Syed still,
• 31:45
  Al Sayed still won.
• 31:47
  But he did not win by much.
• 31:49
  It was a much closer election than people had expected.
• 31:52
  That was when we caught the Haley Hail Mary,
• 31:53
  which was a,
• 31:54
  was a very profitable trade for us.
• 31:56
  So,
• 31:56
  uh,
• 31:57
  they try to break down some of these,
• 31:58
  and some of these,
• 31:59
  honestly,
• 31:59
  I just think are just flat out excuses,
• 32:01
  like just excuses for polling that they don't deserve.
• 32:04
  Some of them are.
• 32:05
  Are true,
• 32:06
  but I wanna make sure we look at this and,
• 32:07
  and take lessons from it as we go forward so we don't,
• 32:10
  you know,
• 32:11
  and I say we,
• 32:12
  a lot of you made money on that race.
• 32:13
  A lot of you saw it coming.
• 32:14
  So
• 32:15
  when I say we,
• 32:16
  I mean me
• 32:17
  and,
• 32:17
  uh,
• 32:17
  all of the dumb thoughts I have in my head.
• 32:19
  OK,
• 32:19
  uh,
• 32:21
  what happened on election day?
• 32:22
  Well,
• 32:23
  this is one I've heard a lot of,
• 32:24
  which is basically
• 32:26
  the polls showed Hong's vote percentage to be
• 32:29
  basically right.
• 32:30
  Uh,
• 32:30
  and this is true.
• 32:31
  Uh,
• 32:32
  the polls basically said that Hong would get about 40% of the vote.
• 32:35
  She went up with 39% of the vote.
• 32:37
  What,
• 32:37
  of course,
• 32:37
  you know,
• 32:38
  again,
• 32:38
  that doesn't
• 32:39
  make anybody feel better who lost money in a prediction market over it,
• 32:42
  largely because
• 32:43
  we're looking for different things than the polls sometimes provide.
• 32:46
  I think this is largely an excuse,
• 32:48
  frankly,
• 32:48
  the fact that they got one side of it right and the other side wrong
• 32:51
  is not necessarily,
• 32:53
  uh,
• 32:53
  an argument for polling.
• 32:55
  But that is true.
• 32:56
  They,
• 32:57
  they didn't miss by that much on Hong's percentage.
• 32:59
  What basically happened was
• 33:00
  all the other vote
• 33:02
  went to Crowley.
• 33:03
  All the other undecided vote,
• 33:04
  all the vote that went to other candidates who dropped out of the race,
• 33:07
  all that came up and wound up going
• 33:09
  to Crowley,
• 33:10
  uh,
• 33:10
  and that is,
• 33:11
  uh,
• 33:11
  true.
• 33:12
  There were a lot of those people who didn't know.
• 33:14
  About a third of voters said they were undecided going into election day.
• 33:18
  So there was a big question as to what would happen
• 33:20
  with,
• 33:21
  with all of these people,
• 33:22
  and there's,
• 33:22
  I think,
• 33:23
  reason to believe we even talked about it at the time.
• 33:25
  That
• 33:26
  the people who
• 33:27
  haven't decided on,
• 33:28
  on Hong yet,
• 33:30
  like,
• 33:30
  why aren't you there?
• 33:31
  She's this crazy nutjob socialist,
• 33:33
  and if you want that,
• 33:34
  it's there.
• 33:35
  And if you don't want it,
• 33:36
  you're gonna go any other direction you can.
• 33:38
  Uh,
• 33:38
  so that is,
• 33:39
  uh,
• 33:39
  we probably should have seen that coming.
• 33:40
  I just thought there was more enough cushion,
• 33:42
  honestly,
• 33:43
  for that,
• 33:43
  to not be the case.
• 33:44
  She wound up losing by only 3 or 4000 votes.
• 33:47
  Um,
• 33:48
  Hong did get a bunch of negative,
• 33:50
  uh,
• 33:50
  press late in the race.
• 33:53
  And this is because,
• 33:54
  you know,
• 33:54
  look,
• 33:54
  the Democratic machine aligned with the media on this
• 33:57
  in not wanting Hong to win because Hong was vulnerable
• 34:00
  in the general election
• 34:02
  in ways that it does not seem,
• 34:04
  um,
• 34:04
  that,
• 34:05
  uh,
• 34:05
  Crowley will be.
• 34:06
  Crowley another one if you're looking for an opportunity.
• 34:08
  I get nervous with anything in Wisconsin right now
• 34:10
  because the polls are always terrible there.
• 34:12
  It's been terrible for multiple presidential cycles in a row.
• 34:15
  Uh,
• 34:16
  it's been,
• 34:16
  the polls just don't seem to work.
• 34:18
  People,
• 34:18
  I don't know if everyone's lying in Wisconsin.
• 34:20
  You're all liars.
• 34:21
  You're all too cold
• 34:22
  and you're thinking to yourself,
• 34:23
  I'm gonna screw with this person on the phone when I take a poll.
• 34:25
  I think something like that's happening.
• 34:27
  Uh,
• 34:27
  Moore,
• 34:27
  uh,
• 34:28
  is the late
• 34:29
  gubernatorial,
• 34:30
  uh,
• 34:31
  uh,
• 34:31
  uh,
• 34:33
  uh,
• 34:34
  endorsement,
• 34:34
  excuse me,
• 34:35
  of,
• 34:35
  uh,
• 34:35
  of,
• 34:36
  uh,
• 34:36
  Crowley.
• 34:37
  I have all these names in my head.
• 34:38
  I'm sorry.
• 34:38
  Uh,
• 34:39
  Evers is the guy who was the governor there.
• 34:41
  He came in late.
• 34:42
  Remember,
• 34:43
  Crowley dropped out of the race.
• 34:45
  He was done.
• 34:46
  There was another quote-unquote moderate candidate that was supposed to take the,
• 34:49
  uh,
• 34:50
  the torch.
• 34:51
  Uh,
• 34:51
  then she had problems,
• 34:53
  she had to drop out.
• 34:54
  Then the governor said,
• 34:55
  well,
• 34:55
  we're gonna,
• 34:55
  I'm gonna endorse that guy,
• 34:56
  the guy that dropped out,
• 34:57
  he came back in the race.
• 34:59
  And Evers has an 85% approval rating among Democrats in the state.
• 35:03
  So that seemed to move a lot of people.
• 35:06
  Uh,
• 35:07
  this one is very repeatable.
• 35:09
  You know,
• 35:10
  it's hard to get a candidate that drops out of the race,
• 35:11
  comes back in,
• 35:12
  gets endorsed by the,
• 35:13
  the sitting governor.
• 35:13
  That's not a normal occurrence.
• 35:15
  A normal occurrence is this though.
• 35:17
  If your if your campaign is running around saying,
• 35:19
  yeah,
• 35:19
  we're down by a lot of,
• 35:21
  uh,
• 35:21
  points,
• 35:21
  but young voters have a lot of passion,
• 35:23
  they're gonna show up in the polls,
• 35:25
  almost never occurs.
• 35:27
  Young voters don't like going to the polls.
• 35:29
  Do you remember your life when you were 22 years old?
• 35:32
  Did you want to go to the polls?
• 35:33
  Did you want to spend a day
• 35:35
  hanging out in a line with a bunch of sweaty people waiting,
• 35:38
  uh,
• 35:39
  in a long line to,
• 35:40
  to vote?
• 35:41
  Probably not.
• 35:42
  You probably
• 35:42
  figured out,
• 35:43
  you know what I should do instead?
• 35:44
  Watch TV.
• 35:45
  You know what I should do instead,
• 35:46
  play video games.
• 35:47
  You know what I should do instead?
• 35:48
  Get on social media and scroll mindlessly through TikTok.
• 35:51
  So many people wound up doing that,
• 35:52
  and the younger people that were,
• 35:54
  of course,
• 35:54
  promised,
• 35:55
  uh,
• 35:55
  didn't show up.
• 35:56
  That's common.
• 35:56
  It happens almost all the time.
• 35:58
  I,
• 35:58
  I always love going against the young vote because the young vote never shows up.
• 36:02
  I mean,
• 36:02
  not never,
• 36:02
  but most of the time they don't,
• 36:04
  they didn't hear,
• 36:05
  uh,
• 36:05
  so they undersold there.
• 36:06
  And then.
• 36:07
  Uh,
• 36:07
  there's also the idea that Hong supporters may have been more passionate,
• 36:10
  therefore more likely to participate in polls.
• 36:13
  I think there's something
• 36:14
  to that,
• 36:14
  and frankly,
• 36:15
  there is some evidence that Republicans and independents
• 36:19
  who could have voted in Democratic primaries
• 36:21
  may have looked at Hong as a legitimate
• 36:24
  threat,
• 36:25
  uh,
• 36:25
  something really bad for their state and decided instead of
• 36:27
  voting in the Republican primary that was basically decided.
• 36:31
  They decided to go
• 36:33
  the old uh,
• 36:33
  Rush Limbaugh Operation chaos,
• 36:35
  if you remember that from 2016,
• 36:37
  crossed the line,
• 36:38
  vote against,
• 36:38
  uh,
• 36:39
  the,
• 36:39
  uh,
• 36:39
  Republican,
• 36:40
  uh,
• 36:41
  against the,
• 36:41
  uh,
• 36:41
  socialist,
• 36:42
  and,
• 36:42
  uh,
• 36:43
  go with Crowley.
• 36:44
  Now that's interesting because,
• 36:46
  frankly,
• 36:47
  the more likely way to get a Republican into
• 36:49
  office was to have Hong win that election.
• 36:51
  Uh,
• 36:51
  so if that actually wound up happening,
• 36:53
  you may have erased some of the absolute worst case scenarios with Hong
• 36:58
  being so far to the left.
• 37:01
  Uh,
• 37:01
  she won't be in office,
• 37:02
  so maybe you could take some solace in that,
• 37:05
  but
• 37:05
  now it's more likely a Democrat is going to win that election
• 37:08
  than the other way around.
• 37:09
  So that's kind of how that,
• 37:11
  that's all the excuses being tossed around basically that I've heard in
• 37:14
  polling nerd circles
• 37:16
  summarized in the New York Times.
• 37:18
  Some of those are legitimate reasons,
• 37:20
  some of those things you really can learn from.
• 37:22
  I think some of those are just the fact that,
• 37:23
  and I,
• 37:23
  you know.
• 37:25
  I have my opinions on these things,
• 37:27
  but
• 37:28
  frankly,
• 37:29
  Francesca Hong was uniquely weird.
• 37:32
  You know,
• 37:32
  the,
• 37:32
  the,
• 37:32
  the,
• 37:33
  the,
• 37:33
  the,
• 37:33
  the truth of the matter is
• 37:34
  Francesca Hong was so far out there going against things like Thanksgiving,
• 37:39
  you know,
• 37:40
  I mean,
• 37:41
  that you just don't get that a lot.
• 37:42
  The same thing,
• 37:43
  you know,
• 37:43
  El Syed,
• 37:44
  while he has lots of crazy beliefs,
• 37:46
  uh,
• 37:47
  wasn't at least
• 37:48
  publicly talking about wanting to end major holidays,
• 37:51
  as far as I know.
• 37:52
  So that is,
• 37:53
  he was able to survive where maybe Hong wasn't.
• 37:56
  Uh,
• 37:56
  so that's basically where we are on that,
• 37:58
  on polling.
• 37:58
  I wanna show you a couple of other races
• 38:00
  though before we talked a lot of politics today.
• 38:01
  Let me give you a couple of other things that I think are interesting.
• 38:04
  I've got a couple of markets I really like.
• 38:06
  I wanna tell you about here in just a second.
• 38:08
  Also wanna remind you,
• 38:09
  PredictableShow.com.
• 38:10
  Go there,
• 38:11
  subscribe,
• 38:11
  and become a premium member if you happen to be a trader.
• 38:14
  I think you'll really,
• 38:15
  really get your money's worth out of that.
• 38:16
  We had a lot of people showing up.
• 38:18
  We're in the top,
• 38:18
  like I think 15 on all of Substack in the new uh pages for,
• 38:22
  uh,
• 38:22
  for,
• 38:23
  uh,
• 38:23
  subscriber growth,
• 38:24
  uh,
• 38:25
  because I think we're,
• 38:26
  we're doing a good job delivering value on that subscription.
• 38:28
  It's worth your time.
• 38:30
  Join us.
• 38:30
  We're gonna try to do everything we can
• 38:32
  to make sure your election season is highly profitable.
• 38:35
  I know a lot of people in the chat have already talked
• 38:37
  about how they've already paid for their subscription easily for the entire year
• 38:41
  because of what we've been talking about at PredictableShow.com.
• 38:43
  So,
• 38:44
  if you're interested
• 38:45
  in these markets,
• 38:46
  there's not a better place to hang out.
• 38:48
  Come hang out with us.
• 38:49
  Some of the top traders in the world are in the chat,
• 38:51
  uh,
• 38:51
  talking just randomly back and forth,
• 38:53
  watching the chat,
• 38:54
  getting ideas.
• 38:55
  You can get some good ideas there
• 38:56
  as well.
• 38:56
  PredictableShow.com,
• 38:57
  back in a second.
• 39:11
  It's time for another episode of Here's what I kind of like.
• 39:13
  And this happens when I'm like just scrolling through markets and I see one,
• 39:17
  it kind of seems interesting.
• 39:19
  Doesn't mean I've done 9 hours of research on it,
• 39:21
  all right?
• 39:22
  This is just,
• 39:22
  this is what I kind of like.
• 39:23
  It's,
• 39:23
  it's piqued my interest a little bit.
• 39:25
  And I've taken a little,
• 39:26
  maybe a marker position or a small position on it.
• 39:29
  And I'm kind of interested to see maybe if there's more there.
• 39:32
  OK?
• 39:32
  Let me give you this one.
• 39:33
  who will be Trump's next press secretary?
• 39:36
  Uh,
• 39:36
  this market is out there right now.
• 39:38
  And,
• 39:38
  and look,
• 39:39
  look.
• 39:40
  There's a bunch of names here,
• 39:41
  some of which I think have basically no chance whatsoever.
• 39:45
  Uh,
• 39:45
  but one of the favorites caught my eye.
• 39:47
  There's a little bit of profit to be made here and I kind of like it.
• 39:51
  Scott Jennings is in 3rd,
• 39:53
  and,
• 39:53
  and let's scroll down to Scott,
• 39:54
  Scott's chart if we have it.
• 39:56
  Uh,
• 39:56
  it's not much to do on the,
• 39:58
  on the chart per se.
• 39:58
  It's hanging around 17%.
• 40:01
  I like the no position here a little bit.
• 40:03
  Because,
• 40:04
  uh,
• 40:04
  Scott's got a pretty good life right now.
• 40:06
  He's got a big,
• 40:06
  uh,
• 40:07
  podcast,
• 40:07
  he's on,
• 40:08
  you know,
• 40:08
  he's on TV,
• 40:09
  he makes lots of money.
• 40:10
  I don't know why he'd want to ruin his life
• 40:13
  to go in to be
• 40:15
  Trump's next press secretary,
• 40:16
  which is the most thankless job in the entire universe,
• 40:19
  uh,
• 40:20
  and really only presents downside for you.
• 40:23
  Uh,
• 40:23
  as a person who already has success in their career.
• 40:26
  Now,
• 40:26
  if you can look at some of the other names on this list,
• 40:28
  most of them are not particularly famous.
• 40:30
  Most of them seem to be
• 40:32
  of a certain profile.
• 40:33
  Uh,
• 40:34
  you might,
• 40:34
  uh,
• 40:35
  interestingly see,
• 40:35
  uh,
• 40:37
  somewhat attractive younger ladies,
• 40:40
  I would say is the,
• 40:41
  maybe the,
• 40:41
  uh,
• 40:42
  particular profile,
• 40:43
  as,
• 40:43
  as you'd see,
• 40:44
  that's something that Trump has seemed to like with his last,
• 40:46
  uh,
• 40:46
  couple of picks.
• 40:47
  Um,
• 40:48
  so that is there.
• 40:49
  Again,
• 40:49
  like some of these names
• 40:51
  down here,
• 40:51
  yeah,
• 40:51
  I think you could find a lot of nos.
• 40:52
  Like I don't think there's any chance Erica
• 40:54
  Kirk is going to be the next spokesperson.
• 40:57
  Uh,
• 40:57
  I would say there's almost no chance Laura Loomer would take the gig,
• 41:00
  but I don't think there's any chance she gets offered it.
• 41:02
  Uh,
• 41:02
  you have,
• 41:03
  uh,
• 41:03
  a bunch of names down here.
• 41:04
  Spencer Pratt would be fun,
• 41:05
  but I don't think that's happening.
• 41:06
  Uh,
• 41:07
  but these are all,
• 41:07
  Jason Miller is a great one.
• 41:08
  Like there,
• 41:09
  there's no chance Jason Miller is gonna be the spokesperson.
• 41:11
  Like he's got a huge policy job.
• 41:14
  But again,
• 41:14
  you're only getting 0.3% on that position.
• 41:17
  Tucker Carlson,
• 41:17
  again,
• 41:18
  certainly no chance of that,
• 41:19
  uh,
• 41:20
  99.9%. So you're not getting any profit there.
• 41:22
  But you go back up to,
• 41:23
  uh,
• 41:24
  Scott,
• 41:24
  uh,
• 41:25
  Jennings.
• 41:25
  I mean,
• 41:25
  you really do,
• 41:26
  he'd be a good,
• 41:27
  he'd do,
• 41:27
  he'd do this job very well,
• 41:28
  I think.
• 41:29
  But you're at 15%,
• 41:31
  and you get some profit you can take there.
• 41:33
  So that's one I kinda like,
• 41:35
  uh,
• 41:36
  for that particular role.
• 41:37
  Let me give you one more though.
• 41:38
  I always say,
• 41:39
  here's one I kinda like,
• 41:40
  but there's always a few.
• 41:41
  Uh,
• 41:42
  uh,
• 41:42
  let me give you one more.
• 41:43
  This one,
• 41:43
  by the way,
• 41:43
  comes from one of our,
• 41:44
  uh,
• 41:45
  predictableShow.com premium subscribers.
• 41:47
  Christian writes this comment,
• 41:49
  I didn't know,
• 41:49
  I hadn't seen this one yet.
• 41:50
  I just noticed that there's a market for Pedro Pascal to be nominated
• 41:54
  for Best Actor
• 41:55
  for Mandalorian and Grogu.
• 41:57
  No is in the mid-60s.
• 42:00
  This is about the closest thing to a sure
• 42:02
  thing as I've ever seen convince me I'm wrong.
• 42:04
  Here's the thing,
• 42:05
  Christian,
• 42:05
  I am not going to convince you that you're wrong on that.
• 42:08
  I think it's a great pickup.
• 42:10
  Have you seen,
• 42:12
  have you ever watched the Mandalorian?
• 42:14
  What is it,
• 42:14
  what does Pedro Pascal even do in this job?
• 42:16
  He just stands there in a mask.
• 42:18
  It's like giving a Best Actor to the guy
• 42:20
  who plays Michael Myers in the Halloween movies.
• 42:23
  He doesn't do anything.
• 42:25
  I mean,
• 42:25
  sure,
• 42:25
  he's involved in the action sequences,
• 42:27
  but are we even sure he shows up to the days where they're shooting the movie?
• 42:31
  And frankly,
• 42:32
  even voicing the character,
• 42:34
  one of the characteristics of voicing the character is to be completely monotone.
• 42:39
  So he,
• 42:39
  the guy's behind a mask
• 42:41
  and he's just talking with no voice inflection.
• 42:43
  They're gonna give him Best Picture,
• 42:45
  uh,
• 42:45
  best actor nomination.
• 42:47
  Now,
• 42:47
  he's very,
• 42:48
  very,
• 42:48
  uh,
• 42:48
  left-ish.
• 42:49
  Uh,
• 42:50
  he's way out there.
• 42:51
  So anybody in that category,
• 42:53
  there's always some chance they get a
• 42:54
  nomination just for having the right politics.
• 42:57
  But come on,
• 42:59
  anybody on earth could have played that role.
• 43:02
  Well,
• 43:03
  show me the market on this.
• 43:04
  It doesn't make any sense.
• 43:05
  Pedro Pascal,
• 43:07
  uh,
• 43:07
  and you see some of these other guys,
• 43:09
  Malkovich is there,
• 43:10
  Pattinson,
• 43:10
  Ryan Gosling,
• 43:11
  I think all decent bets,
• 43:12
  uh,
• 43:12
  to,
• 43:13
  to,
• 43:13
  uh,
• 43:13
  to get a particular nomination.
• 43:15
  Pedro Pascal,
• 43:16
  you could still,
• 43:17
  uh,
• 43:17
  no is 65%.
• 43:19
  So you're talking about
• 43:20
  35% profit on a 65% investment.
• 43:24
  You're over,
• 43:25
  uh,
• 43:25
  50% profit
• 43:27
  for Pedro Pascal.
• 43:28
  When do,
• 43:28
  when do the Oscar nominations come out?
• 43:30
  Because that was late in the year,
• 43:31
  right?
• 43:32
  Then
• 43:33
  or do we go early next year?
• 43:34
  I guess it would be early next year because you
• 43:35
  have to wait for all the movies to come out.
• 43:37
  So,
• 43:37
  uh,
• 43:37
  early next year,
• 43:38
  so we got a little bit of time on this one,
• 43:40
  but
• 43:40
  I also don't like Pedro Pascal.
• 43:42
  I don't really care for the Mandalorian,
• 43:44
  frankly,
• 43:44
  as a Star Wars product.
• 43:46
  I like Star Wars,
• 43:47
  but they've,
• 43:48
  they've,
• 43:48
  they've shaken me,
• 43:49
  I will say over the years,
• 43:50
  frankly,
• 43:51
  because of the Mandalorian and partially what they did with Gino Carana.
• 43:53
  Carrano,
• 43:54
  who's the best,
• 43:54
  the best character in that actual show.
• 43:57
  he does nothing as Mandalorian.
• 43:59
  He sits here and talks to a puppet monotone behind a mask.
• 44:05
  Again,
• 44:05
  here's what I kinda like.
• 44:06
  I don't know,
• 44:07
  I,
• 44:07
  maybe he's the biggest favorite in the world for this.
• 44:09
  It just doesn't make any sense to me,
• 44:11
  and I've taken a position
• 44:13
  against him getting this nomination.
• 44:15
  It's just a joke.
• 44:17
  The,
• 44:17
  and the movie bombed,
• 44:18
  kinda,
• 44:18
  kinda bombed for a Star Wars movie,
• 44:19
  it bombed.
• 44:21
  So
• 44:22
  Those are the two that I kinda like.
• 44:23
  By the way,
• 44:24
  all of my predictions are up at predictableShow.com.
• 44:27
  It's part of the premium tier.
• 44:27
  Do we have that page there?
• 44:28
  I said at the beginning,
• 44:29
  I'm like,
• 44:29
  hey,
• 44:30
  we should do like an,
• 44:30
  uh,
• 44:30
  you know,
• 44:31
  I use this as a euphemism.
• 44:32
  I'm like an album release party,
• 44:34
  right?
• 44:34
  Where we like release the picks and we can talk about them as they come out
• 44:37
  and everyone kind of gets access to them at the same time,
• 44:39
  and they took this literally and made album covers for
• 44:41
  every single time I do one of these releases.
• 44:43
  So there's Stu P.
• 44:44
  That's kind of like a,
• 44:44
  I don't know,
• 44:45
  what am I,
• 44:45
  Jimmy Buffett there?
• 44:47
  I look like uh the most interesting man in the world,
• 44:50
  uh,
• 44:50
  except,
• 44:50
  you know,
• 44:51
  you could tell it's AI cause I'm not the most interesting man in the world.
• 44:53
  But,
• 44:54
  uh,
• 44:54
  it was,
• 44:55
  uh,
• 44:55
  you see here we have a little write-up that explains everything,
• 44:57
  and then you kinda go down,
• 44:58
  you can kinda see the beginning of this.
• 45:00
  There's a little database.
• 45:01
  All my pics are there for you.
• 45:02
  Uh,
• 45:02
  you can actually go up in the upper corner and
• 45:04
  expand this to a sort of a full screen thing
• 45:06
  and see all of them at once.
• 45:07
  There you go.
• 45:08
  Uh,
• 45:08
  lots of pics that I have,
• 45:09
  so you can go and check those out.
• 45:11
  They're all at predictableShow.com for premium subscribers.
• 45:13
  OK.
• 45:14
  Uh,
• 45:14
  we've gone too long today.
• 45:15
  Thank you so much for joining us.
• 45:16
  Uh,
• 45:16
  lots of fun.
• 45:17
  Tomorrow,
• 45:18
  I should just let you know,
• 45:18
  our normal show,
• 45:19
  we'll probably do a little preview of some of the
• 45:21
  other races in the primary states for Tuesday night,
• 45:24
  and then we'll be on the air
• 45:25
  Tuesday night as votes come out,
• 45:27
  uh,
• 45:27
  a long live stream available
• 45:29
  basically everywhere you can find us,
• 45:31
  uh,
• 45:31
  youtube.com/atpredictableshw
• 45:33
  at predictable.
• 45:34
  Show on basically every social media.
• 45:36
  Join us there.
• 45:37
  Go to predictableShow.com.
• 45:38
  We'll be streaming there and then we will have an exclusive subscriber chat
• 45:42
  that goes along into the night as the,
• 45:43
  uh,
• 45:44
  the,
• 45:44
  as long as the races are interesting,
• 45:46
  we'll,
• 45:46
  we'll stay on the air,
• 45:47
  uh,
• 45:47
  broadcasting and live streaming,
• 45:49
  uh,
• 45:49
  with you.
• 45:50
  So
• 45:50
  hang out with us,
• 45:51
  Predictablehow.com.
• 45:52
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 45:53
  We'll see you tomorrow.