Latest / Simply Bitcoin / UK Just EXPOSED Russias Secret Bitcoin Plan!! | EP 1512

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UK Just EXPOSED Russias Secret Bitcoin Plan!! | EP 1512 · Simply Bitcoin

0:02
What the UK just did this morning confirms many of the
0:06
rumors we've heard about Russia's secret Bitcoin plans.
0:10
However, you can't view this announcement in a vacuum because
0:13
some interesting things have been happening inside of Russia.
0:17
Yesterday we learned that Russia plans to kick Visa and
0:21
MasterCard out of the country. And this comes just weeks after
0:25
Russia banned its citizens from taking more than $100,000 of
0:29
cash or gold out of its borders. What's happening in and to
0:34
Russia continues to highlight that the economic reset is
0:38
accelerating. We are seeing this on basically
0:41
every country and maybe an update or rather just a complete
0:48
change in the economic system, how we transact, how countries
0:53
transact with each other, and of course, what money they will
0:57
most likely be using. So to get dive into the the real
1:01
details of this story, which is what we saw this morning, I'm
1:06
going to the UK or gov.uk website and they got this press
1:13
release here. Now the press release in and of
1:15
itself is probably interesting, but what we learned through the
1:19
press release is probably more interesting.
1:21
So here is a title UK cracks down on back door Russian
1:26
sanctions evasion with tough new measures.
1:29
Crypto and illicit finance networks exploited by Russia to
1:32
circumvent UK sanctions are being targeted as the government
1:36
ramps up pressure on Putin's war machine to support Ukraine.
1:39
Now obviously, this is being framed in the context of the war
1:47
in Ukraine from, you know, Russia versus Ukraine.
1:51
Are we surprised by that? Not really, OK.
1:53
But obviously as we know in previous weeks, the last what 2
1:58
weeks or three weeks actually, we have heard a very similar
2:03
framing in terms of what's going on in Iran, that Iran or the
2:07
IRGC has been using Bitcoin or at least the potential to use
2:12
Bitcoin for fees that go through the Strait of Hormuz and of
2:16
course the Bitcoin backed insurance.
2:18
But through that process, we also learned that Iran held
2:23
holds rather $7.7 billion in quote digital assets, which I
2:28
would suspect is purely just Bitcoin because it's the only
2:31
one that is obviously censorship resistant and a politically
2:36
neutral, geopolitically neutral money.
2:39
So last couple of weeks we've been talking about the whole
2:42
Iran using Bitcoin and they're in huge Bitcoin stash.
2:47
This week we hear something similar coming from Russia.
2:51
And we've been covering Russia on this show for a while, in
2:54
particular in regards to their huge mining infrastructure that,
2:59
you know, they're having state sanctioned mining infrastructure
3:04
being built out, that there is still a lot of Bitcoin miners in
3:08
Russia. And then further, we've been
3:10
hearing from the Russian Central Bank for a couple of months
3:13
that, you know, they are kind of like planning to allow their
3:17
rich citizens to use Bitcoin. Well, now we find out through
3:21
this sanction that Russia, this on the state level has been
3:26
actively using Bitcoin to a huge extreme.
3:30
So going further, here is the TLDR, the short of it, the
3:35
bullet points, UK ramps up pressure on Putin's war machine
3:38
with tough new sanctions targeting crypto networks used
3:41
to bypass Britain's sanctions. New sanctions also hit the
3:44
Kremlin backed A7 network, which actively exploits Kyrgyzstan's
3:48
finance financial system to channel funds into Russia's war
3:51
economy. The UK is leading the
3:53
international effort and adapting its sanctions to stay
3:55
ahead of Russians evasion, shutting down the payment routes
3:58
fueling its war machine against the Ukraine.
4:01
So a crypto and illicit finance networks exploited by Russia to
4:06
circumvent UK sanctions are being targeted at today as the
4:10
government ramps up pressure on Putin's war machine to support
4:12
Ukraine. My, my initial thought on this
4:14
guys was the, the initial framing.
4:18
We, we are all shadowy super coders, dude.
4:21
They're just building that narrative up now.
4:24
Now it's like not only is Iran, the bad guys in the Middle East
4:28
using Bitcoin, shadowy super coders, but we have a huge
4:32
illicit and criminal finance network, a shadowy super coders
4:36
in Russia using Bitcoin. We've been, we've been saying
4:39
these narratives are are going to continue to expand and we're
4:43
probably all going to be called big bad boogeyman here.
4:46
But anyways, going further. So Putin's regime, of course
4:51
they're framing this is feeling pressure from the traditional
4:53
financial system with economic sanctions and of course the war
4:58
in Ukraine. This month, May of 2026, Russia
5:02
slashed it's economic growth forecast for the year from 1.3
5:05
to just .4% and have it's forecast for 2027.
5:10
Of course they're framing this. The sanctions are working.
5:14
As existing sanctions continue to buy it.
5:17
The Kremlin has increasingly turned to dark networks and
5:20
shadow financial systems to bypass legal restrictions.
5:24
But today's actions show the UK is moving faster and further
5:27
than ever before to clamp down on these routes and adapt its
5:30
approach to stay ahead of Russian evasion tactics.
5:32
OK, anyways, here is a couple of quotes from the Foreign
5:36
Secretary Yvette Cooper and it goes quote, If the Kremlin
5:40
thinks it can evade our sanctions by hiding behind
5:42
crypto networks and shadow financial systems, it is gravely
5:46
mistaken. The UK is adapting and
5:48
strengthening our approach to target the evolving tactics
5:51
Russia is using to evade sanction.
5:54
We are tracking down and shutting off the financial life
5:56
lines that stay in Putin's war machine.
5:59
We will continue to act fast and decisively.
6:03
So that's the official overview, but like I said through this
6:07
press release, we did hear some very interesting numbers about
6:11
how big this quote illicit and again, what do they say?
6:16
Shadow financial system is coming out of Kremlin.
6:20
So here we go. The A7 network is a Kremlin
6:23
backed system designed to bypass western sanctions, finance
6:27
military procurement and process funds from the sale of oil to
6:30
fund it's war economy. The network claim to have moved
6:34
more than $90 billion last year, or equivalent to roughly half of
6:39
Russia's yearly military expenditure.
6:42
It's huge. Remember, you know, Sailor has
6:45
somewhere around like $65 billion of Bitcoin.
6:48
So that's a that's a big operation in comparison to what
6:53
we've seen from the Bitcoin treasury companies.
6:54
Now, obviously this doesn't necessarily mean that Russia has
6:57
a $90 billion Bitcoin stack, but just to compare how big and how
7:03
much money is actually, or rather has allegedly been moved
7:07
through this shadow financial system.
7:10
Now here is where this press release and where they crack
7:15
down on this so new measures also hit key A7 link
7:19
individuals. The gang is using Kurg Kurgis
7:22
bank suspected of facilitating payments for the network
7:25
alongside a major global cryptocurrency exchange.
7:28
That was HTX, which is a Hong or Panamanian based Hong Kong
7:33
crypto exchange and most famously is like frontman by
7:38
Justin Sun. So Justin Sun again, caught up
7:42
in a lot of this stuff here. But anyways, that's the major
7:46
crypto exchange that is I think on the verge of probably being
7:50
shut down anyways. They say that we suspect has
7:54
channeled over 1 1/2 billion dollars into the Kremlin's
7:58
hands. They're also targeting 3
8:00
Georgian companies operating Russia Focus exchange seeking to
8:04
evade sanctions. Here is the block talking about
8:09
this. And that's where you will see,
8:12
you know, then the exchange. And so I gave you the numbers,
8:17
right, We see the numbers. But here is oh, they wow, they
8:21
deleted it before I went live. That's crazy.
8:24
OK, anyways, I guess I don't have the blocks article here.
8:27
They took it down. But as you can see, one what we
8:31
know and can confirm for a fact now it is it is now a fact for a
8:37
while there, I think it was the end of last year.
8:39
We would do some shows talking about, oh, look, it seems like
8:43
Russia is embracing Bitcoin as sanctioned start to kind of
8:46
increase as the pain of the war starts to increase as well.
8:51
We were seeing rumors and we were seeing a little bit of the
8:55
Russian central bank kind of giving signals that yeah, you
8:59
know, maybe we should start using Bitcoin.
9:01
Now, based on this press release and this latest sanction on HTX,
9:06
which is again a crypto exchange that is frontman by Justin Sun,
9:11
we learned that they have in fact been using Bitcoin for a
9:15
lot of money, a a significant amount of money.
9:18
Now, obviously, you know, a billion isn't as big as
9:21
trillions. It's not as big as the
9:22
traditional financial system, etcetera.
9:25
But now we know for a fact, for a confirmed fact Russia has been
9:30
using Bitcoin. They will most likely need to
9:33
continue to use Bitcoin because the sanctions are, you know,
9:37
increasing and this whole plight in the in Ukraine, Russia war
9:43
seems to be no end to it. But part of this is what US
9:49
Bitcoiners have been saying for a long time.
9:51
You know, that's why Bitcoin is becoming the politically neutral
9:55
money. It is not controlled by any
9:58
state. It is a neutral geopolitical
10:01
money. And as Nico has elaborated a lot
10:05
on this show, it's very hard to sanction it is a lifeline, which
10:10
is very interesting that those official quotes were saying
10:13
something very similar. Like if they think that they can
10:15
use this crypto as a lifeline, they are gravely mistaken.
10:19
Obviously, when you kind of look into the details of this, they,
10:25
it seems from the press release that they weren't actually,
10:28
they're obviously not actually able to stop the money from
10:32
going through. But what were they able to do is
10:35
to stop the on and off ramps, which is obviously something
10:39
that we constantly talk about on the show.
10:42
So that's the initial press release.
10:44
Do we want to stop here or should let let me go through the
10:46
other headlines real quick or no, let's, let's, let's just
10:49
talk about this and then I'll, I'll give the what's happening
10:51
inside of Russia. So yeah, so first of all, happy
10:54
to be back. I was traveling the last week.
10:57
I would thank you. Thank you Opti for holding down
10:59
the show. I was at the Bitcoin Park event
11:02
in Austin. It was fantastic.
11:04
Rod. Rod and the Bitcoin Park team
11:06
always do such a good job putting it together.
11:08
So much signal is an energy and mining summit.
11:12
So happy to be back in Miami. And yeah, so a couple quick
11:16
takes here, you know, Visa and MasterCard, you know, being
11:20
asked to leave, not surprising whatsoever.
11:22
Again, this goes back to the general theme that we've been
11:25
talking about as it relates to Iran, as it relates to to
11:29
Russia. Once you weaponize or better
11:32
said once you politicize the money, the natural incentive is
11:38
for that the government of that country that is being sanctioned
11:43
is to seek an alternative, right?
11:46
And what better alternative than Bitcoin now that are that press
11:51
release by the UK was? Framed in a very specific light.
11:55
It was framed in a. Way where it was basically like
11:58
look, under no circumstances will we allow Russia to receive
12:03
illicit funds using crypto and using Bitcoin.
12:07
And you know the people that are writing these press releases
12:10
aren't dumb, they're not dumb, right?
12:13
What they're doing is they're framing Bitcoin and crypto in a
12:19
light where it's basically like, look like this is outside of our
12:23
control. And because of its because it's
12:25
because it's outside of our control.
12:28
You know we can't let that happen, right?
12:30
You can see how they're marching towards.
12:33
The narrative that Elizabeth Warren was using during the
12:37
Bennett, the Senate Banking Committee where she brought up
12:39
Iran, right, She was like. Look, Iran is now accepting
12:43
Bitcoin, you know, for, for people, for ships that want to
12:46
pass the Strait of Hormuz. So it's this.
12:49
Framing of like look like because we can't.
12:52
Control the ebbs and the flows of Bitcoin, the money transfers
12:56
of Bitcoin. We're going to demonize it and
12:58
eventually I think what's going to happen as the separation of.
13:02
Money and state continues to accelerate is I think they're
13:05
going to get to a point where they're going to say, listen,
13:07
you actually can't take self custody at all because if you
13:11
take self custody, there's no way for the government to
13:14
enforce any of the ebbs and flows of money, right?
13:18
So it is it surprising to me that Visa is saying, hey, or, or
13:21
Russia saying Visa MasterCard, you guys need to get out of the
13:24
country. No, because ultimately those are
13:27
American companies. And what did the United States
13:29
do when the Ukrainian conflict started?
13:32
They politicized the dollar. They weaponized the dollar.
13:35
They said, listen, if you're Russian and you have an account
13:39
with U.S. dollars, we're going to freeze your funds, right?
13:42
So Russia is obviously trying to act out of its own best
13:45
self-interest and saying, listen, we're not going to put
13:47
ourselves in this situation again.
13:49
What we're going to do is we're going to build a parallel
13:52
system. Now, is that parallel system
13:54
going to be based on Bitcoin 100%?
13:56
I don't think so, because I don't think the government of
13:58
Russia is going to want to continue, is want to give, is
14:01
going to want to give total, total control over the control
14:04
of money. Because in that statement, it
14:06
said as well that Russia is basically saying, hey, you know
14:09
what they're doing? Capital controls, right Capital
14:12
controls. We don't want money leaving
14:15
Russia. We want money staying within
14:18
Russia. And this is exactly what Bitcoin
14:20
is for. Because even if you put the
14:22
countries that aren't sanctioned by the United States, even if
14:25
you put Argentina into a mix, even if you put Brazil into the
14:28
mix, even if you put Venezuela to some extent before the the
14:32
Ludo regime change, like even if you put all of these countries
14:36
into the conversation, what do all these countries have in
14:39
common? Specifically the countries that
14:41
have high digit inflation? What do they have all in common?
14:44
You know what they the first thing that they do capital
14:47
controls. They don't want money leaving
14:49
the country. Now this is where Bitcoin gets
14:53
thrown into the mix better or for worse.
14:56
And then I'll, I'll leave it with this final thought, which
14:59
is listen, and this is Jeff Booth's quote, right?
15:01
The thing about Bitcoin is that you're going to have to be OK
15:05
with even your worst enemy using Bitcoin, right?
15:08
And for a lot of governments that are used to having the
15:11
total monopoly over the issuance in the control of money, that's
15:15
a very tough pill to swallow. Because how can it be that the
15:18
United States builds a Bitcoin strategic reserve?
15:21
It becomes the Bitcoin capital of the world.
15:24
But simultaneously, you know, America's supposed biggest
15:28
rivals like Russia and Iran are using Bitcoin to stay afloat.
15:32
As Opti mentioned, Iran and Russia have huge mining
15:37
operations within their borders, right.
15:40
So this is the gang theory of Bitcoin playing out in in, in
15:44
real life. This is what Max Keiser was
15:47
saying was going to happen when he was talking about, you know,
15:50
the global hash war, right? This is this is you're saying
15:52
you're seeing it play out because what governments are
15:55
starting to realize specifically governments that can't use the
15:59
United States dollar, that can't use the traditional financial
16:02
system is they're saying, listen, if we can't use the
16:05
traditional financial system, we're going to have to find an
16:08
alternative. What is the best alternative?
16:10
The best alternative is a non sovereign censorship resistant
16:15
money and that non non sovereign censorship resistant money.
16:18
I would make the. Case that there's.
16:20
Really only one, because Bitcoin is the only one that's truly
16:23
decentralized out of all of the cryptocurrencies is Bitcoin.
16:27
So it's an inevitability, but Russia trying to play this game
16:30
of like, oh, we're going to use the benefit benefits of Bitcoin.
16:33
Well, simultaneously, we're not going to allow the our people to
16:37
benefit from the benefits of Bitcoin.
16:39
That game doesn't work. And then this always leads me
16:42
back to Alex Gladstein's famous article that I think he
16:46
inevitably, I think he eventually made into a book,
16:49
which is like, you can't separate number go up technology
16:54
from freedom go up technology. They're inextricably linked.
16:58
Like once you let the Trojan horse in, once you let the
17:01
Trojan horse of of freedom into your country, you can't separate
17:05
the two. This is why Elizabeth Warren was
17:08
so hell bent on making this whole speech about, hey, listen,
17:13
if we let Bitcoin into the traditional financial system,
17:16
it's going to be a catastrophe. You know, there's going to be so
17:19
much volatility. No, no, no, no.
17:20
She's not speaking from a place of like, oh, we got to, we got
17:24
to protect our own citizens from the volatility of Bitcoin.
17:28
She didn't really care when the banks blew up in 2008, 2009, no,
17:33
no big banker went to jail. The politicians didn't care when
17:37
TD Bank was facilitating hundreds of billions of dollars
17:42
of money laundering of illicit finance.
17:44
They didn't really care about that.
17:46
And the, the, the reason they don't really care about that is
17:48
because they fundamentally control the banks.
17:50
So ultimately what this comes down to is control.
17:54
It comes down to control. And it's inevitable that China
17:58
or Iran or North Korea or any country, I might add, that
18:04
again, can't interact with the traditional financial system,
18:07
which again, runs on the United States dollar, goes and seeks an
18:11
alternative. And that's like that's a natural
18:15
human incentive. It's like, you cut me off from
18:17
this. It's like, do you do you just
18:20
expect for them to just sit on their hands and say, all right,
18:23
guys, checkmate, you guys win. No, they're going to seek an
18:26
alternative. That alternative is Bitcoin,
18:28
right? And this right now is kind of a
18:31
tough pill to swallow for governments that have been used
18:34
to operating a world where that sanctioned tool, the the the
18:40
politicization, the politicization of money, the
18:43
weaponization of money that really started during the Obama
18:46
administration. Like they're not going to let go
18:52
of that power. They're not going to just say,
18:53
OK, you know what, you found this Bitcoin thing.
18:56
You now have this Obama's quote and you now have a Swiss bank
18:59
account in your in your in your on your phone.
19:02
You know you're good. No, they're not going to let go
19:05
of that, right. So it's going to be really
19:07
interesting to see over the next decade or so how governments,
19:12
you know, swallow this pill because it is a really tough
19:16
pill to swallow. It's not going to go away.
19:19
Bitcoin is extremely well entrenched in the United States
19:23
financial system. Already you have you have huge
19:26
banks here in the US that are super bullish on Bitcoin.
19:30
You have Larry Fink, he coined the term, by the way, non
19:33
solvable over an alternative. I didn't coin that term, you
19:36
know, essentially having the, the most successful ETF launch
19:40
in their history, you know, launching the I bit Bitcoin ETF,
19:45
like they're not going to just walk back from that profit,
19:48
which again connects with that article that Alex Gladstein
19:52
wrote, which is Bitcoin is a Trojan horse for freedom.
19:55
They are not going, it is so difficult for them to walk away
19:59
from number go up technology. What they don't realize is that
20:03
number go up technology and freedom go up technology go hand
20:06
in hand. Now, how does this relate to you
20:09
guys? Because I'm assuming most of our
20:13
audience isn't based in Russia. How does it relate to you guys
20:17
and how does it relate to you guys in Europe?
20:18
Cause some of our audience is based in Europe.
20:21
It relates to you guys because. The framing of that article was
20:25
precise. They use those words on purpose
20:30
and what they're going to try to do.
20:32
And I thought we were past this already, but it seems like, you
20:35
know, you know, 2020 called and they're, they're, they want
20:38
their excuses back and they're going to try to villainize the
20:44
custody of Bitcoin because if they villainize the custody of
20:49
Bitcoin, that is really the only way they keep their power of
20:56
they keep their, their, their monopoly on the issuance and the
20:59
control of money flows. Without that, if you have
21:04
millions upon millions of people taking Bitcoin into self into
21:07
self custody and transacting peer-to-peer the way that
21:10
Bitcoin is meant to be used, you can't really stop that.
21:15
You can't really stop Russia from transacting in Bitcoin.
21:18
You can't really stop Iran from transacting in Bitcoin.
21:22
And I would say, and that the world has operated like that for
21:28
most of human history, right? Like this idea that governments
21:33
could somehow, you know, politicize and weaponize money
21:38
is a a relatively new phenomenon, right?
21:42
And again, it started, I would say maybe it's really started
21:46
since the Bank Secrecy Act and it's just, and then it
21:49
accelerated with the Patriot Act and it's just, it just continues
21:52
to get worse and worse and worse and worse and worse and worse
21:55
and worse and worse. And, and ultimately what they're
21:57
trying to do is, you know, the, the, the quote from the
22:01
sovereign individual comes to mind, which is like, listen,
22:04
what information technologies have enabled.
22:07
And this applies to information, right?
22:09
Governments have lost their monopoly on information.
22:12
But this also applies to money is that governments, nation
22:15
states, modern nation states view their citizens as cattle.
22:19
And what information technologies has given their
22:22
citizens is it's given their citizens wings.
22:25
So it's cattle with wings. Now the cattle have wings.
22:28
Now the cattle could fly away, right?
22:31
So again, it it moves the balance of power from the state
22:35
back to the individual. And I think that's going to be a
22:39
very turbulent Rd. to say the least.
22:43
I think it's going to have a lot of ups and downs because I think
22:47
when at least a percentage of the population, whether that's 5
22:51
to 7% of the population have Bitcoin in self custody, what
22:56
are they going to do? Like what ultimately are they
22:59
going to do? How are they going to stop the
23:01
money flows? And then you can make the
23:03
argument, OK, Nico, but what they're going to do is that
23:05
they're going to go after the on, the on and off ramps, OK?
23:08
They go after on and off ramps, but what happens when people
23:12
just don't go back to the on and off ramps?
23:16
What happens when people just stay in Bitcoin, right?
23:19
And, and you see this already specifically again, in countries
23:22
that don't have a relatively stable Fiat currency, they don't
23:26
go back, right? So then what happens, right?
23:29
The, the, the whole, you know, power structure of society
23:33
completely changes. And I think what you're going to
23:36
get sold on as an individual and what the, the population is
23:40
going to get sold on. And you can already see it with
23:42
Elizabeth Warren's wording. And you could already see it
23:45
with that press release coming out of the United Kingdom.
23:47
I think what they're going to try to sell the public on is the
23:51
fact that ID, that Bitcoin and self custody is somehow
23:54
dangerous to society. Because what they don't talk
23:57
about with these sanctions is the vast majority of people that
24:02
get affected by these sanctions are not the governments.
24:06
It's not Russia, it's not Iran, it's not Cuba.
24:12
It's the people living in Russia, it's the people living
24:16
in Iran, it's the people living in Cuba.
24:19
And then that gets into a very slippery slope of an argument
24:23
because it's like, because I happen to be born in a certain
24:27
country, I am now not entitled to use money.
24:31
I am not entitled now to use, you know, interact with the
24:35
global economy. Is that the argument you're
24:38
trying to make? I have nothing to do with the
24:40
government of Russia. I have nothing to do with the
24:42
government of Iran. I have nothing to do with the
24:44
government of Cuba. I'm just trying to get by like
24:47
every single other human being on the planet, which I would say
24:50
the vast majority of people literally just want to get
24:54
through their day. Get paid put.
24:56
Food on the table with their family and just live their life
25:00
and Bitcoin allows that. Bitcoin facilitates that.
25:04
Bitcoin gives a tool for those people to be able to live in a
25:09
country where they didn't choose to be born in.
25:14
So that that argument used by governments is basically like,
25:17
look like we have sanctions against Russia.
25:19
What they failed to mention. It's like, what about the 10s of
25:23
millions, hundreds of millions of Russians that have nothing to
25:26
do with their government? Why are they paying the price
25:30
for a political battle that's happening between the government
25:33
of the United States and the government of Russia?
25:36
Why should the people of Russia have to deal with that?
25:39
Why should the people of Iran have to deal with that?
25:42
And their argument is we want to facilitate regime change.
25:46
We're doing these sanctions for regime change.
25:49
We believe that if we put enough sanction pressure on Russia,
25:54
that's going to cause an uprising in the population, and
25:57
the population is going to say enough is enough.
25:59
We don't want that government anymore.
26:01
Ladies and gentlemen, the United States has been in the business
26:04
of regime change, I would say, since the end of World War 2.
26:08
And I would say more often than not, it's not ended well at all.
26:14
0 and you can go down the list, what happened in Vietnam, what
26:19
happened in Iraq, what happened in Afghanistan.
26:23
We were in a 20 year war in Afghanistan fighting the
26:27
Taliban, you know who controls Afghan.
26:30
And a lot of loot and treasure was spent on that war.
26:36
A lot of American lives, a lot of American lives were committed
26:44
to that war. You have veterans whose lives
26:47
were absolutely ruined because of that war.
26:52
Who controls Afghanistan today? The Taliban.
26:56
North Korea is another great example.
26:58
United States has had sanctions against North Korea for forever.
27:02
Has North Korea had a regime change?
27:05
No. Cuba, Great example.
27:07
Right off the coast of Florida, 90 miles from where we're at.
27:12
Has Cuba changed governments? No.
27:16
So I think the question that everybody should be asking when
27:21
these politicians bring up the necessity of sanctions and, and
27:26
capital controls and all these things, it's like, OK, I'll,
27:29
I'll, I'll buy your argument at face value.
27:32
What has been the outcome of these policies?
27:36
Have they really achieved what you said they're going to
27:41
achieve? Did we have a regime change in
27:43
Cuba? Did we have a regime change in
27:46
Russia? Did did we have a regime change
27:49
in Iran? Iran is a great example.
27:52
We literally took out their entire leadership.
27:56
Has the government of Iran changed fundamentally?
28:02
Like, OK, we took the people out on the top, but has the
28:07
government of Iran change? No, it's, it's more entrenched
28:10
than ever. So the reason I'm bringing all
28:14
this up is because I think we need to have a serious
28:17
conversation because this is what they're going to use is are
28:21
these sanctions actually serving the American people?
28:25
Are these sanctions actually achieving their goals?
28:32
That's the question that I have for you guys.
28:34
Are they really, are they really hurting Putin?
28:38
If you look at Putin's popularity, he's more popular
28:41
than the president of the United States.
28:44
So like, and again, do do you blame the people of Russia for,
28:49
for looking at Putin saying I, you know what, like, I kind of
28:52
don't mind the guy. Like, if the whole world is
28:54
against him, if they're freezing accounts of Russians worldwide
28:58
just by the fact of them being Russian, like, and then this
29:02
guy's like, you know what? I don't want any of that.
29:04
I'm going to stand up for my people.
29:05
Like, what do you think the average Russian's going to say?
29:07
They're going to be like, yeah, you know what?
29:12
At least this guy stands up for what we want, right?
29:15
So we're going to kind of go through this weird shift in
29:19
society. And again, I think this is going
29:21
to take about 10-15 years. We went, We just lived through
29:25
the disintermediation of information.
29:28
You saw it. You lived it.
29:30
You saw it when all of a sudden you tuned into mainstream media
29:34
or legacy media, Better said. And all of a sudden legacy media
29:38
wasn't actually telling you what was happening in society.
29:44
Independent media was more accurate than what legacy media
29:47
was telling you. And then you had the rise of X.
29:50
You had when Elon acquired X and he freed the bird, what
29:54
happened? All of a, all of a sudden you
29:57
have free speech on the Internet and you have people discussing
30:00
ideas out in the open and what did they try to do?
30:04
What did they try to do? They cracked, They try to crack
30:07
down on that stuff so hard. The previous administration
30:10
tried to launch a ministry of truth as it was coined, right?
30:13
And you had that Lady, that crazy lady with the crazy eyes,
30:16
right? Like, you know, like
30:17
information, this or this. She like I made a song and
30:20
everything like it was, it was correct.
30:22
That Lady, right? So so like it was like.
30:24
Hunger named Lady. What was the disintermediation
30:27
of information? And they fought so hard to keep
30:30
their monopoly in Europe. They're still trying to go after
30:33
X, right? So now we are up.
30:39
I would say we're, we're, we're in the final chapter, right?
30:42
Which is what comes after the disintermediation,
30:45
disintermediation of information.
30:47
What comes after the disintermediation of information
30:50
comes the disintermediation of money.
30:53
And the disintermediation of money is going to be a whole lot
30:57
more hectic because that is their source of power.
31:01
That's how they pay for themselves.
31:02
That's how they fund themselves, right?
31:05
So we're, we're entering a new era of human history.
31:09
We're, we're, we're, I don't think we've ever lived in this
31:12
before. It's, it's extremely exciting,
31:14
but also comes with a lot of ups and down, ebbs and flows.
31:18
You have a lot of martyrs in this.
31:20
You have a lot of people that were unjustly in prison, like
31:24
Ross Ulbricht, like the samurai wallet developers, right, That
31:27
were literally just creating like literally put Ross aside.
31:31
But like the samurai wallet developers, like they're
31:34
literally just what writing code.
31:36
So like, this is all part of it and it it and don't buy into the
31:40
argument that it has to do with money laundering or, you know,
31:43
stopping criminals. Because if that were the case,
31:46
then there would be a whole lot more bankers in jail for what
31:50
happened in 2008, 2009. And the bankers of TD Bank that
31:55
facilitated some of the largest money trans money laundering
31:59
operations ever. None of their executive team,
32:03
you know, had to pay a consequence for that.
32:07
They just had to pay a fine. And if you look at our industry,
32:12
like if you look at CZ or if you look at Arthur Hayes, or if you
32:15
look at, you know, a lot of the entrepreneurs from our industry,
32:20
a lot of them just went straight to jail for AML and KYC.
32:25
So like, there's a double standard of justice here.
32:29
And by definition, that is injustice.
32:32
So you guys have to pay attention to the ball.
32:35
You have to pay attention to the game and why this is happening.
32:39
This is happening not because they're concerned about KYC and
32:42
AML. That's their excuse.
32:44
This is happening because they're they're losing their
32:48
their monopoly on the issuance and the control of money.
32:51
That's what it comes down to. And is the world going to be a
32:56
better place, a worse place, a more unsafe place if we have
33:02
rules without money, Rules without rulers and money, Is the
33:06
world going to be an, an, an unsafer place if people are
33:09
allowed to transact freely no matter where they happen to be
33:12
born? I would say that's going to be a
33:14
better world. I just think that's going to be
33:17
a much harder world for governments to point boogeyman's
33:19
at, right? Because I think fundamentally
33:22
the vast majority of people, us included, and the vast majority
33:26
of people worldwide don't give a flying F what their governments
33:30
have to say politically. I think what they fundamentally
33:34
care about is can I feed my family?
33:37
I think that's what the vast majority of people on planet
33:40
Earth care about. And I think that's what Bitcoin
33:44
is going to help them do. So be prepared for the
33:48
propaganda. Be prepared for the media
33:50
attacks. We have a much better
33:52
infrastructure these days. We have social media, we have
33:56
Noster, right? We have so many ways to consume
33:59
information that doesn't rely on legacy media, which was just a
34:03
handful of of of media outlets. So I'm, I'm excited for what's
34:08
to come, but I'm also a little bit concerned, man, because
34:11
they're not going to go gently into that good night.
34:14
They're not just going to hand over the keys and say, hey, man,
34:17
you won. You found better money, you
34:19
found deflationary money, you found censorship resistant
34:22
money. You guys win game set and match.
34:25
I, I, I think they're going to fight tooth and nail in order to
34:29
keep that control of money. And I think they're going to use
34:32
all the propaganda, all the media in order to villainize
34:36
self custody in order to villainize peer-to-peer
34:40
transactions because ultimately they're not going to be able to
34:43
control that, right? So we're going to see how this
34:45
plays out. I know Opti, you had a second
34:47
part to the segment. I mean, you, you really expanded
34:51
on it and, and I'll go through this quickly just to kind of
34:54
bring in the receipts to what Niko was saying that this is all
34:58
about control. The framing that they use is
35:00
completely different. But when you really look at the,
35:03
the meat and potatoes of what's going on, it is all about
35:05
control. So just to kind of add, you
35:08
know, some some data points to that idea.
35:13
And it's not just Nikko ranting about it's not just us ranting
35:15
about this, that this is what's happening.
35:17
You know, this isn't just like old man yells at the clouds like
35:21
this is what they're doing. So here is the Visa and
35:25
MasterCard story. And what is super interesting
35:29
here is the framing. So the title here, the press
35:33
release is titled Bank of Russia points to need for MasterCard
35:37
and Russia or sorry, MasterCard and Visa to leave Russian
35:40
markets. And here is where you get kind
35:43
of the official framing. But if you're looking at it from
35:48
our vantage point, it's just the framing is controlled, we go.
35:52
She who is the director of the Bank of Russia's national
35:57
payment system, Allah Bakina, says that the share of Visa and
36:01
MasterCard continues declining in the Russian market and it's
36:05
about 17% now. Quote these payment systems,
36:08
Visa and MasterCard and TAZ were removed from our market.
36:12
The people had a sizeable number of cards, but the share of these
36:14
instruments declined in the market during four or five
36:17
years. The banks are performing the
36:19
gradual substitution by other instruments, including mirror
36:22
cards. Therefore, the national card
36:25
payment system through economic incentivization measures is
36:30
arriving at the withdrawal of these cards from the market.
36:33
So they're basically saying, hey, look, the use of Eastern
36:36
master call is declined, it's a 17%.
36:39
But our national card payment system is now on the rise.
36:44
And what does that say? From our perspective, it's like,
36:48
OK, well, one, we don't want to use Western companies for
36:51
payments. So we're going to be using our
36:54
national card system, which obviously the the unsaid is that
36:59
we control that we, you know, that we have control, total
37:04
control over. Obviously they could be framing
37:06
this as more of like a national pride kind of conversations,
37:09
like we need our own payment system based in our nation so
37:13
that they can't cut us off, which I think is a very viable
37:16
kind of perspective here. Now moving further, they are
37:20
literally doing capital controls.
37:21
Russia bans gold exports, prevents bringing more than
37:24
100,000 USD in cash across borders.
37:27
Now, looking down in here, According to the decree, the
37:30
transfer of cash and rubles from the Russian border to the
37:33
countries of the EUR Asian Economic Union will be
37:36
prohibited if the value exceeds $100,000 USD, calculated at the
37:40
exchange rate of the Central Bank of Russia starting April
37:43
first. Of course, with certain
37:45
exceptions. But another decree bans the
37:48
export of gold bars weighing over 100 grams from Russia
37:51
starting May 1st. This regulation also has some
37:55
exceptions. It does not applied to
37:57
commercial banks. This was effective May 1st of
38:01
last month or of this month. Sorry.
38:03
Individuals, legal entities and individual business.
38:05
Whole households are prohibited from exporting refined gold
38:08
ingots with a total weight exceeding 100 grams out of the
38:12
Russian Federation. Both decrees have been denounced
38:15
on the Russian government's information portal.
38:17
Despite the government promoting digitization, the demand for
38:23
cash in Russia is still increasing.
38:26
In January 2026, the banking system recorded a net withdrawal
38:29
of about $13.2 billion in USD. Now, the main reason that
38:35
they're saying for the net withdrawal of money in Russia is
38:38
that businesses are switching to operating in the shadow economy
38:41
to evade taxes, especially VAT taxes.
38:45
And then here's the last part that I will read, which, as you
38:49
can tell, as your country adds capital controls, starts to move
38:53
away from cash, you look for other options.
38:56
Russian Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Mossiv said that gold is
39:00
increasingly becoming used as a substitute for foreign currency
39:04
and illegal transactions, contributing to increasing
39:07
capital outflows and money laundering.
39:10
As you can see, people are using or looking towards alternatives.
39:15
Now, we don't obviously here ever recommend breaking laws,
39:20
but if you have those concerns, if you have capital control
39:25
concerns, if you are looking to have a bank account that they
39:30
can't shut down, I would argue, and I think Nikko would argue
39:34
too, you probably don't move to gold, even though that's what
39:38
people are doing. This is still an education curve
39:40
going on. It's a multi generational 100%.
39:44
It's a multi generational shift. I think, you know the fact that
39:49
people are moving to cash, the fact that people are moving to
39:51
gold tells you that again, they don't have confidence having
39:59
their money custodied. With a bank, that's what that
40:03
means. That's what that signals, right?
40:06
We saw this in the United States, like with the Great
40:08
Depression, right? What happened as soon as people
40:11
lost confidence in the banks, everyone what did what?
40:16
Because a bank run, they want, they, they wanted to take their
40:18
money out of the bank, right? So when people lose confidence
40:21
in the banks, whether either whether it comes to capital
40:25
controls for political reasons or just, you know, the bank
40:28
being solvent in the 1st place, they say, hey, you know what,
40:32
I'm going to get the hell out of Dodge.
40:33
I'm going to get out of here right now where I think this is
40:36
the the reason I said this is a multi generational thing is
40:40
Bitcoin ultimately is still $1.5 trillion asset.
40:44
Bitcoin also is only 16 years old.
40:46
I I think I got that number right, right 16 or 17?
40:49
I think it's Technic, it's 17, it's technically 16, but it it,
40:55
it's on its 17th year. So it's.
40:57
Yeah. So Bitcoin's only 16 years old,
41:00
right? So, you know, I think a lot of
41:02
people just, you know, they don't see it as, you know, as
41:06
cash. They don't see it as gold like
41:07
we do. It's obvious to us.
41:09
But like, that's because we're nerds and we've been talking
41:12
about Bitcoin for a decade. But like most people, if you're
41:17
not in the know, if you're not, you know, on the interwebs, you
41:20
know, tuning into, you know, simply or, or, or, you know,
41:24
you're not a, you're not a, a, a technologically sophisticated,
41:27
you know, you're, you're not looking at Bitcoin, you're
41:30
looking at, OK, what happens when we're in these times of
41:33
crisis? Let's let's go to gold, right?
41:35
Let's go to cash, right? I think that as the generations
41:39
go by, we had Adam O'Brien, the CEO of Bitcoin.
41:43
Well, on the show the other day, we were talking about the next
41:45
generation, right? So my children are gonna grow up
41:49
in a world where Bitcoin already existed.
41:51
So they're gonna be Bitcoin native and their children's
41:54
children are gonna be Bitcoin native, right?
41:57
Just like you see it with the Internet, right?
41:59
You see, you know, I think it was my generation really where
42:02
we, we grew up, we grew up into the Internet, right?
42:06
Like my coming of age, the Internet existed, right?
42:10
So my understanding of the Internet was native in a way.
42:15
Right now, even the younger generations their their their
42:18
understanding of the Internet is even more native because they.
42:21
Literally were like 2-3, four years old and the Internet
42:24
existed. Not only did the Internet exist,
42:27
it was like fully fleshed out, right?
42:30
It wasn't like the 90s where it's like, oh, the Internet
42:33
exists. Like, yeah, the Internet existed
42:34
in the 90s, but it was like, could you really have used it?
42:37
No, it was still kind of like in this experimentation phase,
42:40
like. Really, the Internet really took
42:42
off in like 20/10/2015. When they're they're reached
42:46
like a, a, a, a this, this, this.
42:49
Pivotal point where the vast majority of people started
42:53
getting their information from the Internet versus traditional
42:56
sources, right? I think Bitcoin's going to go
42:59
through a very similar. Path In that sense, I think it's
43:02
going to be a multi generational thing.
43:04
I think the younger generations are going to understand it much
43:08
better because they grew into it.
43:11
And this is a perfect segue for our next segment.
43:14
We're going to be talking about the new chairman of the Federal
43:17
Reserve. He even has a quote where he
43:21
says this himself, or he says if you're under 40, Bitcoin is your
43:25
new gold, right? So he's even saying the choir
43:29
part out loud, right? So anyways, guys, it's going to
43:31
be a great show. Happy to be back in the hot
43:33
seat. Happy to be back in Miami.
43:35
It was quite a trip last week. I really enjoyed it though and
43:39
happy to be back here in the studio with Opti.
43:41
So guys, if you guys are enjoying the show so far, make
43:44
sure to smash that like button, consider subscribing and stay
43:47
tuned. We're going to be right back in
43:49
just a little bit. Today's episode is brought to
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All. Right everybody, we are back.
46:05
At the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is 75,930 sats per
46:10
dollar 1317 block height 951,148 Realized monetary inflation .83%
46:20
market cap 1.5 trillion Bitcoin versus gold market cap 5.06%
46:27
Percentage issued 95.4% decline from all time high.
46:32
If you're buying Bitcoin right now, you're getting it at a 40%
46:35
discount. Anyways, I did mention the new
46:39
Fed chair and I did want to talk about this.
46:42
Here's a clip of saying Bitcoin is like the new goal.
46:45
Let's check it out. If you're under 40, Bitcoin is
46:49
your new goal. So I think of Bitcoin as a lot
46:52
of things, but it's certainly with every passing day getting
46:55
new, new life as an alternative currency.
47:01
Ladies and gentlemen, elections have consequences.
47:04
That is, that is. We don't elect the Fed.
47:09
Chair correct. You don't.
47:12
You don't elect the. You don't elect the.
47:14
Fed you elect. Trump, but you elect, you know,
47:17
you elect a president and every six years that president gets to
47:21
appoint a Fed chair. And the Trump administration ran
47:25
on a pro Bitcoin mandate, a policy and he won that election
47:30
because of that. So I stick by my statement
47:33
optimist field. But most importantly, let's take
47:38
a look at this. This is Mike Belshi.
47:40
Mike Belshi is big. He is the CEO of Bitco.
47:47
Bitco, for anyone who doesn't know, is basically the
47:51
infrastructure layer behind a lot of these a lot of these
47:56
exchanges. So some of your favorite
47:58
exchanges you're buying from that exchange, but the back end
48:03
is Bitco, right? And I don't want to name any
48:06
specific ones, but basically almost all of the major Bitcoin
48:12
only exchanges. So and so they're using the
48:17
Bitco back end, right? So they're a big deal.
48:21
So Mike Belshie said Kevin Walsh takes the Fed helm this week.
48:26
What this means for Bitcoin. Walsh has been a long time
48:29
critic of QE and and balance sheet excesses.
48:33
If he means it, the era of easy money as a reflex ends.
48:37
That's actually good. Bitcoin's bulk case was never
48:41
rates go down. It's Fiat credibility erodes
48:45
wash either restores credibility credibility or proves the system
48:50
can't be fixed. Hard money wins either way.
48:53
Now this is great for me and Opti to discuss this.
48:59
And it's also good too that I got to interview Arthur Hayes
49:02
because I asked Arthur Hayes bluntly.
49:05
I said so like, why is what's the reason Bitcoin goes up?
49:13
And he just said bluntly, like blunt them printing money.
49:18
And I'm like, is that the only reason?
49:20
And he didn't even add like context and explanation or
49:24
nothing. He just said, yes, this is
49:28
Arthur Hayes, right? One of the most successful
49:30
entrepreneurs in the space. Guy's an absolute legend.
49:35
And his base case is like, look like Bitcoin goes up when they
49:39
print money. And Mike Belshi is basically
49:43
saying like, look like he's either going to be more hawkish,
49:47
you know, it's, you know, try to be conservative on on monetary
49:50
policy, or we're going to realize the truth, which is
49:55
Lenolin. Nothing stops this train.
49:58
Larry Leopard, the big print. I go in the category of.
50:04
They don't have an option but to print money because they spend
50:08
more money than they collect in tax revenue.
50:11
How do you facilitate all of that government spending without
50:15
printing money? You have to print the money.
50:19
And you know what happens during election years?
50:21
It's quite interesting. They print a lot of money.
50:25
Why? Because they want to look good
50:26
in front of the mid. They want to look good.
50:29
In in going in going into the midterms, they want to look good
50:34
going into a presidential election.
50:35
It happens every time. And Speaking of Arthur Hayes, he
50:39
actually wrote an excellent article talking about how the
50:43
conflict in Iran was going to facilitate more money printing.
50:49
So like I always get asked this question which is like.
50:54
How do you think Bitcoin would fail?
50:58
Bitcoin fails if one thing happens.
51:03
If Bitcoin fails, there's no necessity for Bitcoin #1
51:09
government stop printing money #2 which we were talking about
51:14
during the intro segment. Government stop politicizing and
51:20
weaponizing money. Now I'm going to open it up to
51:23
you guys. Do you think governments are
51:25
going to stop doing either of those things?
51:29
I don't think the United States has a choice.
51:32
To continue to print money, they don't have a choice.
51:35
And then the meme comes into play, which is Infinity divided
51:39
by 21 million. So if.
51:44
Governments are going to continue to print money and
51:47
there's only 21 million Bitcoin. Do the maths.
51:51
It's not hard. It's not hard maths.
51:54
Right. So it's interesting the way he
51:57
framed it though, which is. I think we're getting to a point
52:01
where like the QE experiment started in 2008, 2009.
52:12
Now they call it different things.
52:14
Maybe they don't call it QE anymore, but fundamentally what
52:18
they're doing is that they're just going to continue to print
52:21
money. So if they continue to print
52:22
money, the price of Bitcoin goes up.
52:25
Arthur Hayes, this is literally said.
52:26
He's like, yeah, they, they print money.
52:29
They just print Bitcoin goes up. And it's not just Bitcoin, by
52:32
the way. It's all assets.
52:34
Just Bitcoin happens to be the most scarce, right?
52:38
And then that goes into like an educational debate.
52:41
But this applies to stocks, this applies to real estate, this
52:45
applies to gold, this applies to Bitcoin.
52:48
It applies to. Everything when they print
52:50
money, the price of assets. Go up.
52:54
Simple as that. It's not hard to understand,
52:57
right? And Bitcoin just happens to be
53:00
the best asset. Bitcoin happens to be the
53:03
superior asset for all of its characteristics that we say
53:07
literally every single day, right?
53:09
So it's super cool that we have a pro Bitcoin chair.
53:14
I, I'm, I'm let's go down memory lane a little bit Opti, because
53:18
we did bring up Powell for like 4 years straight, like 6 years
53:22
actually since the inception of simply.
53:27
Do you think it's going to be any different from like at least
53:30
a regulatory perspective with with Walsh compared to?
53:35
Powell yeah, I mean well any different?
53:40
Probably not I I think Walsh has AI think he has a very hard job.
53:46
I think, look, you know me, I'm an, and the Fed guy, but I think
53:51
being the, the Fed chair, like it's an, it's an extremely
53:55
difficult job. All right.
53:56
And I have been bringing up the parallels of Gary Ganser and I
54:01
don't, I don't need to like rehash it.
54:03
I've been saying that for probably like 3 weeks that it's
54:05
going to be very interesting to see how Wash acts, or rather
54:09
what he says as the Fed chair. Is that narrative going to
54:12
change from, you know, a private person to the public person that
54:18
he now is? That's still yet to be seen.
54:22
But will the will he do something different?
54:26
I think is still like the big question for his bitcoiners.
54:29
I think. And you know, I I kind of was
54:32
trolling last time I said this, but I think Jerome Powell
54:35
probably did the best he could with the circumstances that he
54:39
had. And the only reason I'm saying
54:41
that is if Kevin Walsh goes in and he realizes like, oh man,
54:46
you know, Jay Powell's actually doing the best thing he possibly
54:50
could, then that means the that means the outcomes or rather the
54:55
decisions that he make will probably not be too different
54:58
from Jerome Powell. But obviously, from what we've
55:02
heard of Wash before he's officially been nominated as the
55:06
new Fed chair, it does sound a lot different than what Jerome
55:11
Powell was saying. You know, he is a lot more pro
55:13
Bitcoin. He does seem to be more of, I
55:18
don't know, I, I don't want to call Jerome Powell economically
55:20
illiterate because he's obviously not.
55:22
He's a smart guy, but he does seem to be maybe more aligned
55:27
with how we view the world a little bit versus how Jerome
55:29
Powell views the world. Jerome Powell for all intents
55:32
and purposes, is like a very clear Keynesian.
55:34
So, you know, everything he did was based on that idea of
55:39
protecting the system, protecting the status quo.
55:42
Now, obviously that is Wash's job as well.
55:46
So will he be different? I think is still to be seen
55:51
because I think the circumstances that he is
55:54
basically being given right now, I don't think they're they're
55:58
really going to allow him to do too much different stuff, which
56:01
is obviously like they have to print money.
56:04
But what will in fact be different is the culture there.
56:08
There's going to be a new culture at the Fed now because
56:10
of who is leading it. And I think that is obviously
56:15
still yet to be seen what that it is going to be.
56:17
So like, will he do something different?
56:19
I don't know. I don't think he can do anything
56:21
different. And if you guys been following
56:24
Larry Leopard, he's been showing all of this data on his Twitter
56:27
account. Basically, like Borsch has a
56:31
tough job right now, like he is getting put into a very tough
56:35
position. And can he actually do anything
56:38
different? There's a difference between
56:40
what you say and what you can actually do.
56:42
And I think that's probably the bigger conversation.
56:45
I, I, I'm with Nico, I think it's the big print.
56:47
Like they have to continue to expand the money supply to
56:50
continue to run the economy hot. Because if the numbers come in
56:53
and the economy looks sluggish, then the downstream effects of
56:57
that are what everyone, what all the dumers have been saying.
57:01
That's like we're going into a recession or potentially
57:04
something worse unless they run the economy hot like it where
57:09
it's very bad. The, the basically entire
57:11
economy right now is being driven by the AI bubble.
57:15
If somehow, for some reason the money starts drying up, that is
57:21
a catastrophe for literally the entire global economy here.
57:25
So will it be different? I'm guessing probably not.
57:29
I think Warsh is, you know, in a rock between a rock and a hard
57:33
place. I don't think they can do
57:34
anything different. He can say what he wants, but I
57:37
don't think they can really do anything different.
57:40
So will it? I, I don't know.
57:41
I I really don't think it's going to be that different, to
57:43
be honest. Yeah, I mean, look, I, I but
57:46
but. He did.
57:47
He does say good things that are favorable to Bitcoin.
57:50
He does seem to get it, but I think the circumstances aren't
57:53
really going to allow him to do that much.
57:56
Different stuff, yeah. I mean, look, I, I think
57:58
ultimately, you know, they have to print money.
58:01
That's what it comes down to like, and I, I think, you know,
58:05
we we have this this idea of like a a free.
58:09
It makes me laugh saying this, but you have like a free and
58:11
independent Fed. But it's like reality hasn't
58:14
shown that, right? Reality has shown that
58:17
regardless of the political party, the Fed appeases them,
58:22
right? the Fed appeases them and and
58:24
the people want the print and the Fed appeases them to print,
58:28
right. Like Congress passes a bill, you
58:32
know, the Inflation Reduction Act Great.
58:34
What did the Inflation Reduction Act do?
58:37
Pass a bunch of. Added more inflation.
58:40
Like, added a bunch of programs and stuff for the Fed to just
58:44
print more money to pay for those things that the United
58:47
States can't afford. Right.
58:49
So yeah, like, I mean, it, it is a difficult situation in that
58:54
sense. And this is what Bitcoin was
58:57
made for, right? You guys have to remember in the
58:59
genesis block, it says Chancellor on the brink of the
59:02
second bailout for banks. And so she fundamentally knew
59:05
that central banks were going to continue to print money.
59:08
And he created or discovered Bitcoin, depending on the way
59:11
that you want to see it. He created a way for
59:15
individuals, citizens to opt out of that entirely.
59:18
And I think that's absolutely beautiful.
59:20
This is what this is what we fight for.
59:21
This is why we're here, right? Anyways, guys, it's going to be
59:23
a great show. We're going to be talking about
59:25
the four year cycle, something that Opti and I have vehemently
59:32
disagreed on the last six months or so.
59:37
I don't want to say I told you so because it's too early to say
59:40
that. He you did say I told you so
59:42
this morning though, but you're still wrong.
59:45
But I said, I said that. I said that off camera so.
59:47
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So.
59:49
So what are you officially saying?
59:51
You don't say the same thing on camera that you do on camera,
59:53
No. No, no, what?
59:55
I'm. What I'm trying to say is like
59:57
every other metric has been broken, every other metric has
1:00:02
been broken. This previous cycle and the only
1:00:06
metric that really still holds is the four year cycle theory.
1:00:11
And I'm a big believer in like look like the four year cycle
1:00:14
theory is intact until it's not intact.
1:00:17
I, I hope I'm wrong. So we're going to be talking
1:00:20
about that because I see a lot of people, especially in the
1:00:24
rumble chat talking about, Hey, why is the price going down?
1:00:27
Someone replied because Elon farted.
1:00:29
That's hilarious, but we're going to be talking about you
1:00:32
know, the four year cycle, why the price is potentially going
1:00:36
down Also, I do want to bring it up.
1:00:38
I can't believe we've survived this Opti, but this is really
1:00:42
the first time in bitcoin's history where Bitcoin has had
1:00:45
two red years. We ended the year last year with
1:00:49
Bitcoin, the. Year isn't over yet.
1:00:53
We ended the year with 6% down. And this year we are actually
1:00:57
down on the year. So we're going to be talking
1:00:59
about all of those things and more right after the break.
1:01:05
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All right, everybody, we are back.
1:02:46
So I have someone who's quite unpopular with with Opti, Opti
1:02:53
and Luke, but I do want to talk about this and may perhaps we
1:02:58
spice up the conversation. So this is Benjamin Cohen's
1:03:02
take, by the way. I agree with his take for now.
1:03:07
And Benjamin says this 21 hours ago.
1:03:10
He says the four year cycle for Bitcoin is not dead.
1:03:14
Bitcoin topped when it always topped to went to within one
1:03:18
week when measured from low to high.
1:03:21
So why can it bottom near the end of the midterm year, just as
1:03:25
it generally has? And again, that would put the
1:03:28
bottom near October. By the way, as measured from the
1:03:33
peak, the ROI of Bitcoin while holding up better than prior
1:03:36
cycles, which again I would say is expected.
1:03:39
Why is that expected? Because we didn't have a
1:03:42
traditional euphoric blow off top.
1:03:45
What we had was a top on apathy. As measured from the peak, the
1:03:50
ROI of Bitcoin while holding up better than prior cycles still
1:03:54
exhibit exhibits similar behavior in prior bear markets.
1:03:58
There were counter trend rallies that lasted more than 20 weeks
1:04:02
before a new local low was set. Their current consolidation is
1:04:06
only 16 weeks. And then here let me show you
1:04:10
guys the chart. Bitcoin also historically gets
1:04:14
rejected around its 200 day moving average in bear markets,
1:04:18
which is exactly what just happened.
1:04:19
Opti was talking about this this morning.
1:04:23
My views could be wrong and if they are I'll definitely lick my
1:04:26
wounds for a while. But there is still plenty of
1:04:28
evidence to suggest that the four year cycle remains intact
1:04:32
and that once again people thought quote this time was
1:04:35
different when it was not. Checkmatey quickly jumped in and
1:04:39
he said a counter argument worth considering is that the date on
1:04:43
the calendar doesn't hard code how markets perform the behavior
1:04:47
of investors and their capital does.
1:04:50
If the behavior of investors in capital was the same, stronger
1:04:54
argument. To my eye it isn't.
1:04:57
Benjamin Cohen replied to Checkmatey.
1:05:00
He said from a chart perspective, what is different
1:05:02
this time other than narratives and feelings?
1:05:04
That is, what did I post above that makes your eyes think it is
1:05:08
different this time? And then Checkmatey refers to
1:05:12
his article. The full answer requires some
1:05:16
length, but. Just read the TLDR. Yeah.
1:05:19
Right there at the bottom, yeah. Thank you, OPDI Short story,
1:05:22
we've already seen an equivalent capital base of 25% of the
1:05:26
realized cap form between 78 and 56 K, which is sufficient to put
1:05:30
the bottom in for 2018 and 2022 lows.
1:05:33
Investor behavior shows that we never had the influx of
1:05:36
speculative capital in 2025, which again goes back to what I
1:05:40
was saying. You'd never had that speculative
1:05:43
blow off top that is primarily driven by retail.
1:05:46
You can make the argument though that we did have that
1:05:48
speculative blow off drop in the in the treasury companies.
1:05:52
But he goes on to say which creates the torrent of weak
1:05:56
hands and the bear. November at 20 at 80K and
1:05:59
February AT60K were historic size capitulation events which
1:06:04
flip the dial. The smart money from run and
1:06:06
hide to welcome to deep value. The rest we get to watch and see
1:06:10
how it ages. And then Benjamin Cohen replies
1:06:14
with we'll take a look somewhat A rando replies Chucky is ABTC
1:06:20
permeable. He also buys MSTR shares and
1:06:23
prefers Ben and Chucky. Chucky are not the same.
1:06:28
And then checkmate. This just gets into you know X
1:06:32
drama. I don't know why, I don't know
1:06:33
why I read the post of the rando but you guys get the general
1:06:36
gist of it. I want to get your guys
1:06:38
thoughts. Is the four year cycle dead?
1:06:41
You guys know where I stand on this and, and my perspective, I
1:06:45
have a very simplistic common sense approach, which by the
1:06:49
way, I have not changed since October to my detriment because
1:06:54
of the amount of, excuse my language shit I've got in on
1:06:57
this show from not only Opti Walker when he joined as a
1:07:02
guest, but just the general audience as a whole.
1:07:05
But I've stuck to my gun since October.
1:07:08
I literally told you guys that the the bull market was done in
1:07:12
October. And I've literally told you guys
1:07:14
my base key, my base, my base case.
1:07:17
Which I'm sticking to is if Bitcoin channels between 80K
1:07:24
and. 60K for the rest of the summer.
1:07:27
So for the next three months, I think that there's a very high
1:07:32
probability to the bottom is in. If Bitcoin hits new lows during
1:07:38
the summer, which we all know the meme sell in May and then go
1:07:42
away, then I would say the four year cycle is playing out
1:07:47
exactly how the four year cycle has always played out.
1:07:51
Opti. Yeah, well, I think in the
1:07:58
context of that back and forth, I'm kind of more aligned with
1:08:01
checkmating now. I will.
1:08:03
I didn't, you know, I did give you your props.
1:08:07
You know, even though I gave you shit for a couple of months, I
1:08:11
definitely, you know, conceded the fact that you were right.
1:08:15
You did call the top in October. You know, even though, even
1:08:19
though I was giving you crap during that time, you were
1:08:21
right. I'll, I'll give you that much.
1:08:22
Now, the part of it that I don't necessarily agree with, it
1:08:28
really goes into what Chuck Maddy was saying is that tweet
1:08:32
where you said it's not necessarily the timing, it's the
1:08:36
investor psychology behind, you know, the traders and people in
1:08:41
the market now. Isn't that the exact?
1:08:45
Same. No, no, because what I'm saying
1:08:48
is that now we have a new investor in the market.
1:08:52
The institutions are here. What I'm saying is yes.
1:08:56
Then why is the market playing out exactly how it always plays
1:08:59
out? In in a timing wise, you might
1:09:01
be right, but what I'm saying is I don't think like the part that
1:09:04
we do agree on is since we didn't get a blow off top, we're
1:09:07
not going to see a blow, you know, a, a dip, a capitulation.
1:09:11
We're not going to see them. I think we're not gonna see a
1:09:13
crazy capitulation into the 40 KS, which is where I've been
1:09:16
giving you a lot of crap about and, and so has the audience.
1:09:19
But with that being said, like if you look at the 1010 crash
1:09:22
and the one in I believe it was, I always mix this up.
1:09:26
I think it was in December, like Chuck Mady pointed out, like
1:09:29
those were big capitulation events.
1:09:31
The one that got or sorry, we saw one in October, one in
1:09:35
December and then the final one in February of this year to mark
1:09:39
that 60K bottom. Those were pretty big
1:09:43
capitulation events. Maybe they're not as big as the
1:09:46
ones that we've experienced in the past, but those for all
1:09:50
intents and purposes do kind of mark huge capitulation events
1:09:53
that could mark the bottom. And obviously in hindsight, we
1:09:56
will look back and be like OK, 60K was or was not the bottom.
1:10:00
I'm just saying where we currently stand and what we are,
1:10:03
what I'm currently seeing is we are there is a new investor and
1:10:07
that's like the new variable in this whole 4 year cycle cycle
1:10:12
kind of you know, Bitcoin being driven by retail.
1:10:15
So we know how exactly the price is going to move.
1:10:18
What we are seeing is the increased interest by
1:10:23
institution, all of these institutional products, the
1:10:25
increased interest from the ETF and from an institutional
1:10:29
investor perspective, more from like a retail investor with the
1:10:34
institution. Because I would, I would argue
1:10:36
that there's a difference between just like the average,
1:10:39
you know, Bitcoin retail investor and the average
1:10:42
institutional traditional financial investor.
1:10:46
They are looking at different things.
1:10:47
They have different Givens, They have different views of how
1:10:50
markets trade, what is a good investment, what isn't.
1:10:54
And I think with the amount of capital that we're seeing from
1:10:56
the institution, I think that is fundamentally shifting where
1:11:00
we're going to see the bottom around Bitcoin.
1:11:02
And I'm not the only one saying this.
1:11:03
Like, you know, Nico's on the Ben Cowen side.
1:11:07
I'm with sailor over here. Sailor's like 60 K was already
1:11:10
the bottom. We're gonna be seeing a climb
1:11:11
up. Yeah, but dude, like, but like
1:11:14
hold on, like Sailor went through and it's it's
1:11:18
fascinating to see. And I and I've I've mentioned
1:11:20
this on the show, the I've mentioned that.
1:11:23
OK. Sailor, he's going through the
1:11:27
same. Psychology that the rest of us
1:11:31
have all gone through with the bear markets like Sailor went
1:11:36
from never sell your Bitcoin, which was Nikko circa 2018-2019
1:11:43
and then he went from never sell your Bitcoin.
1:11:47
He built an entire brand off of that to sell your Bitcoin
1:11:54
sometimes just make sure that you end up with more Bitcoin,
1:11:57
right? Which is Nico circa 2026, which
1:12:01
is like this psychological process that all Bitcoiners go
1:12:05
through if you've held on long enough, right?
1:12:10
So I mean like, I just like, you know, I, I like simultaneously
1:12:17
like the expectation was $150,000 Bitcoin by the end of
1:12:21
2025 that that never came to fruition.
1:12:24
Dude I was way higher. So, so, so, so the point I'm
1:12:28
trying to make about Sailor is that like Sailor is along for
1:12:32
the ride like the rest of us. The only fundamental difference
1:12:36
is that he has a lot more capital, right?
1:12:39
He's integrated into the traditional markets, but
1:12:42
fundamentally bro like. Fundamentally, Sailor is going
1:12:48
along the ride with the rest of us.
1:12:54
Like Sailor is going along for the ride like the rest of us,
1:12:57
man. You know, like, the reality is
1:12:59
that like, no one got 2025, right?
1:13:02
Nobody got 2020. I was like Max all cap bull
1:13:07
posting 500K end of 2025 cause Trump got elected into office
1:13:14
not knowing that the Trump election and then sailors 100K
1:13:18
party at his house was the euphoric top of the cycle.
1:13:23
Right? So like that's my counter to
1:13:26
that. Is that like, yeah, like this
1:13:28
time is different from the institutional standpoint, the
1:13:31
amount of institutional interest.
1:13:34
But you can't deny Ben's point. Like the fact is, like, if you
1:13:38
look at the data, Bitcoin peaked exactly when it was supposed to
1:13:42
peak, which was in October. And Bitcoin is going down like
1:13:47
it always has gone down in the year after the top.
1:13:54
So like until I get proved wrong, which I will happily
1:14:00
admit and I will say guys, I was wrong over the next three
1:14:06
months, I tend to, you know, be on the side of.
1:14:13
Someone in the chat said institutional adoption is making
1:14:15
Bitcoin less volatile and starting to smooth out the
1:14:17
chart. Yeah, obviously.
1:14:19
But like that still doesn't break the general trend of what
1:14:23
I'm saying like. Anyhow, OK, so you still believe
1:14:28
40K by October? I'm not saying that.
1:14:31
What? I'm not saying that.
1:14:33
What I'm saying is like, we're gonna find out in the next three
1:14:37
months. Dude, I'm saying the same.
1:14:39
Thing The next three months are gonna determine whether the four
1:14:43
year cycle is broken. The next three months are really
1:14:46
gonna determine what? Excuse me, what Bitcoin's price
1:14:51
action is going to be for? The rest of the year.
1:14:56
I got that. I, I, I'm in total agreement
1:14:59
with that. But to nail you down, no more
1:15:02
fence sitting. We're going lower till October
1:15:08
because I think we're going to slow grind up.
1:15:10
I think 60K was the bottom. So like no fence sitting on
1:15:14
where you currently stand. You're still for your cycle, but
1:15:17
you think we're going to go lower?
1:15:19
I'm going to answer this question like a politician, not
1:15:23
like I'm going to answer this question.
1:15:25
See. I'm trying to nail you down
1:15:27
here. I'm going to answer this
1:15:28
question not based on like an idea.
1:15:31
I'm going to I'm going to answer this question based on what I'm
1:15:34
doing with my money. OK.
1:15:36
I guess that's fair enough. So what I'm doing is I'm dollar
1:15:41
cost averaging on a daily basis. That's what I'm doing.
1:15:45
That's what I've been doing my entire career in Bitcoin and I'm
1:15:49
going to continue to do that during the summer.
1:15:51
If we get bigger dips, I'm going to do it more aggressively.
1:15:55
If we go up, I guess I'm going to have a little bit more cash,
1:15:58
right. But that's the answer to that
1:16:01
question is I fundamentally don't know.
1:16:03
I don't think anybody knows, but I think that the four year cycle
1:16:07
looks intact and I don't think I don't think it's broken until.
1:16:13
You know, we pass the the net, we pass the summer because the
1:16:16
summer, the summer is when like there's the meme, right?
1:16:19
It's like sell in May and then go away, right?
1:16:22
But May's. But May's been positive so.
1:16:25
Is May still in the green? Barely.
1:16:27
I just looked at it, it's literally just barely in the
1:16:30
green. It's like .17.
1:16:32
And you? And you effing jinxed it bro,
1:16:34
because we got five days left in May.
1:16:36
Hey, I mean, maybe I didn't, I don't know.
1:16:39
I'm just saying. Anyways, we're going to be.
1:16:41
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All right, everybody, we are back.
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Opti, what do you have? For us, yeah.
1:18:57
Well, you know, when I, when I, when I, when I got this ready
1:19:04
before the show, I didn't know we were going to go in the full
1:19:08
year cycle. But now that I have what I'm
1:19:10
going to talk about, it feels like I'm making the case for a
1:19:13
while. I think you're wrong, but that
1:19:16
that wasn't my intention. But that's literally how this is
1:19:19
going to go. OK, so anyways, guys, I don't
1:19:23
think I don't think we actually covered this on the show, but
1:19:26
I've been talking about on the show recently just the amount of
1:19:30
interest happening through. That's a lot of Bitcoin.
1:19:32
That's a lot of Bitcoin, exactly.
1:19:35
We've been talking about the amount of interest going into
1:19:37
stretch, right? And I know, dude, just let me
1:19:42
let me cook, let the kid cook here.
1:19:44
OK, geez. But what we didn't cover on the
1:19:50
show and we have been covering SATA or coming from Strive, the
1:19:55
amount of Bitcoin that they're buying with their, you know,
1:19:58
digital credit product. Now what is very interesting and
1:20:01
this is the part that I don't think we had brought up on the
1:20:03
show. Maybe I kind of glossed over it,
1:20:06
but Strive or the SATA ticker has recently.
1:20:10
They change their dividends to daily dividends.
1:20:13
So instead of, you know, Sailor actually moved, I think instead
1:20:18
of weekly stretch move to BI weekly and we see SATA or Strive
1:20:23
has gone to daily dividends. And just the overall trend that
1:20:28
we're seeing is digital credit is attracting a lot of capital,
1:20:33
like a lot of a capital. It is.
1:20:35
It is becoming probably the hottest product coming out of
1:20:39
not just the Bitcoin ecosystem, but basically like on the
1:20:42
market. People are very interested in
1:20:45
that 11 1/2 percent returns. I I do actually don't fully know
1:20:49
what Sata's returns are. Maybe you can look that up real
1:20:51
quick, Migo. But on that note, we just saw
1:20:55
this morning that Strive purchase 1100 coins and now they
1:21:01
hold 16,500 Bitcoin worth 1 and 1.25 million.
1:21:06
Now going over the Bitcoin treasury an interesting happened
1:21:10
you can see here Strive is now 7.
1:21:12
They now hold more Bitcoin than Coinbase that has been doing
1:21:16
this for as long as everyone has longer than any of us have been
1:21:21
here. What 13?
1:21:22
Percent. Yeah.
1:21:23
OK. So they have 13 percent on daily
1:21:26
dividends. Crazy.
1:21:27
OK, So you can see that this digital credit product is
1:21:31
catching on, whether it's stretch, whether it's Sada.
1:21:33
Sounds great. I know, right?
1:21:34
That's crazy. I think the way I saw it framed
1:21:37
the other day is I think it was Mac Cole, who's head of Strive.
1:21:41
I think he said something like, yeah, yeah, he's a smart dude.
1:21:45
He said something, I think he tweeted.
1:21:48
It was like, Strategy will be the biggest company in the world
1:21:52
and Strive will be the fastest growing company in the world.
1:21:55
And you're like, yeah, yeah. I was like, yeah, that's like a,
1:21:58
that's a, you know, big claim here, though.
1:22:01
It seems like that's exactly what Strive is doing.
1:22:04
They are it's starting to pick up in their SATA digital credit
1:22:09
product. They are now number 7 and
1:22:11
they're what like didn't they come out like a year ago?
1:22:15
Like they they're not the, they're not the last one.
1:22:18
But give. A shout out by the way, to like
1:22:20
the hidden the hidden gem which is SpaceX and Tesla.
1:22:25
I know, I know. I covered that.
1:22:26
Yeah, that was crazy, dude. Elon.
1:22:29
Elon, the Bitcoin holder we all know.
1:22:30
Elon is holding 20,000 Bitcoin which would make him like in the
1:22:35
top top seven top 6. Yeah, yeah.
1:22:39
And then also Tesla still holds 11,000.
1:22:41
So like combined he's got like 30,000 Bitcoin under his
1:22:45
control. So that's top five.
1:22:50
You know, combined and Elon hasn't said.
1:22:52
Anything I know, I was talking about that anyways.
1:22:55
Anyways, anyways. But he's a he's a hodler, he
1:22:58
believes. He dude, he's not dumb even
1:23:02
though I might sometimes troll but.
1:23:03
He believes. But anyways anyways.
1:23:05
I. Think that's the hidden, I think
1:23:07
that's the the winner here, 'cause like Tesla's like again,
1:23:12
like it's a it's it's a mag 7 I believe, right.
1:23:15
I believe Tesla's in there. Is it?
1:23:18
Yeah, I think so. Thought Mag 7 is what Google,
1:23:23
Microsoft, Apple. Yeah, tell Tesla's in the Mag 7.
1:23:30
So we have a Mag 7 company that's like top. 10 holder or
1:23:35
11:11 holder? Actually merge with SpaceX.
1:23:40
That is a hard. 12 #12. That is a hardcore toddler.
1:23:44
And would have over, yeah, about 30,000 coins.
1:23:49
It's insane. All right, Anyway.
1:23:51
Oh, sorry. Anyways.
1:23:52
And it has cash flow. And it's got cash flow.
1:23:55
Nico's a huge. And it's sending rockets to the.
1:23:58
Nico's a huge Elon fanboy. Anyways, anyways, going back to
1:24:03
the digital credit idea and furthering making my case that I
1:24:06
think this is different. OK, I I know, I know those are
1:24:09
the words no one likes to hear. But what we are seeing with the
1:24:13
digital credit product right now is fundamentally different than
1:24:16
we've seen in any other bear market, any other cycle in
1:24:19
Bitcoin. Because even though the Bitcoin
1:24:22
treasury companies have taken, you know, maybe all of the hype
1:24:26
of 2025, now all the companies are getting a lot of interest
1:24:31
and they are acquiring a lot of Bitcoin.
1:24:34
So, you know, we have this one. Strive announces 1100 coins
1:24:39
today. SATA absorbed all of the Bitcoin
1:24:43
mines supply, just them with 453 Bitcoin, which as I was telling
1:24:51
you, I believe it was Friday, no Thursday.
1:24:53
I think it was Thursday where I was saying, look, we have one
1:24:57
company buying all of the daily mind supply.
1:24:59
Well, now we have two companies that are basically buying all of
1:25:03
the daily mind supply. We have the institutional
1:25:06
capital inflows from the ETF. They haven't really, you know,
1:25:11
we haven't seen too much outflow.
1:25:13
They've been hold Hodling the majority of their coin.
1:25:16
So we have the institutions buying, we have the Bitcoin
1:25:19
treasury companies buying at paces that at a certain point
1:25:23
the Bitcoin network is going to have to go up.
1:25:26
Obviously retail for the most part is gone.
1:25:29
We have Bitcoiners that are continuing to accumulate.
1:25:31
Who? Cares about retail if we got
1:25:34
the. Suit coiners in here.
1:25:37
My point exactly. My point exactly.
1:25:39
Now this is interesting. So this tweet here goes.
1:25:43
If you're only watching the ETFs, you're missing half the
1:25:45
picture. The real alphas in the corporate
1:25:47
treasuries. Now, I wouldn't necessarily say
1:25:49
that per SE, but what we are seeing is that the Bitcoin
1:25:54
treasuries are buying a, and this is a scientific term, a
1:25:57
shit ton of Bitcoin and we're seeing the ETFs are also buying
1:26:03
a lot of Bitcoin. We have never seen this before,
1:26:07
OK? We have never seen this amount
1:26:09
of interest or rather capital scooping up Bitcoin.
1:26:13
Yes, retails gone. It doesn't really matter
1:26:16
anymore. Retail is not in control of the
1:26:18
price anymore. It's these institutional and
1:26:21
Bitcoin treasury companies, companies that are literally
1:26:24
scooping up insane amount of Bitcoin.
1:26:27
Now we have two companies that are buying all of the daily mind
1:26:30
supply of Bitcoin, obviously. Why isn't the price?
1:26:34
Well, that, that is the biggest thing because the price, because
1:26:38
what what is interesting is the Bitcoin price did dump today.
1:26:41
So like, there's, there's that. That really throws a wrench into
1:26:44
this, I feel. Like Wall Street's just like
1:26:46
counter. Trading well that I think so I
1:26:48
think they are. But I also saw Adam back tweet
1:26:50
this this morning goes bit Fenix whale maybe a new bit connects
1:26:54
well, but the time weighted algorithmic purchase that would
1:26:57
T wap I always forget what that is buying Bitcoin.
1:27:00
They are also buying 450 Bitcoin a day for the last 8 1/2 days.
1:27:06
By the way, did you did you see that person burnt 8?
1:27:10
Million, Yeah, yeah, I was, I was going to cover that as well.
1:27:13
So here let me let me pull that up for everyone, 'cause that
1:27:17
that is that I like what is this guy doing?
1:27:22
He just. Has so much Bitcoin.
1:27:23
He's just like, I'm going to donate some to the community.
1:27:27
I guess here we go So this is what Nico's talking about.
1:27:34
Did I pull it up? No.
1:27:35
So Sonny was covering this and he goes someone just broadcasted
1:27:41
5 transactions totaling 107 Bitcoin to the Bitcoin burn
1:27:45
address. So someone just basically just
1:27:50
made Bitcoin more scarce by 100 plus coins, 107 coins.
1:27:54
I was going to cover that, but then I saw what Sata's doing and
1:27:59
I'm like, dude, they're buying so much Bitcoin sailors buying
1:28:02
so much Bitcoin institution ETF inflows like they were a little
1:28:07
negative the last week or so. They there has been a couple of,
1:28:10
you know, a significant amount of outflows, but the majority of
1:28:13
coin is being held by these ETFs.
1:28:16
And I didn't realize, excuse me before the show that I was
1:28:24
basically going to be making the case for why I think the four
1:28:28
year cycle is probably changing. And it is because of this new
1:28:32
variable in the market, which is not only the institution, but
1:28:36
the Bitcoin treasury buys are also accelerating.
1:28:39
Whereas last year in 2025, what was interesting, besides Sailor
1:28:45
and some companies buying a little bit of Bitcoin, the the
1:28:50
interest in those products didn't really like the interest
1:28:53
in, in what they were doing was overblown.
1:28:58
The hype was crazy on Bitcoin treasury.
1:29:00
It was kind of like a shit coin cycle.
1:29:02
Everyone was giving them money so that they, you know, their,
1:29:04
their stock increases. Well, now that the hype has died
1:29:07
down, we are seeing something fundamentally different where
1:29:10
the Bitcoin treasury companies that are still actively building
1:29:13
and actively acquiring Bitcoin, they are buying a lot of
1:29:18
Bitcoin, like a lot of Bitcoin. So if we have Strata, sorry,
1:29:23
Strive and strategy, two companies in the market now and
1:29:28
it seems like SATA, you know, fastest growing company
1:29:30
currently, you see how quickly they've, they've risen on the
1:29:35
Bitcoin treasury scoreboard. If that interest continues to go
1:29:40
up and they're able to buy thousands of coins because I, I
1:29:44
covered them last week and they were only buying, you know, like
1:29:48
10s of coins, like hundreds of coins, I think was the top.
1:29:52
Now they've got enough interest where they're buying thousands
1:29:55
of coins, sailors buying thousands of coins.
1:29:58
ETFs are taking a lot of coins as well.
1:30:02
I, you know, I didn't know I was going to be making the case that
1:30:06
this is like one of the fundamental reasons why I think
1:30:09
things are fundamentally different from an investor's
1:30:13
psychology perspective. Usually we could say the four
1:30:17
year cycle was just like a, you know, AD Gen. folklore as the
1:30:20
chat was calling. It's just like, you know, retail
1:30:23
new is coming. So you sell at the four year
1:30:26
cycle top or 18 months after the halving and then you buy it at,
1:30:31
you know, 400 days after the halving and you can just rinse
1:30:34
and repeat. All I'm saying is what if the
1:30:41
amount of buying we're seeing from the ETFs and the Bitcoin
1:30:45
treasuries is going to fundamentally throw a wrench in
1:30:48
that whole idea we've been covering for over a year now.
1:30:52
All our models are broken. Like we have to fundamentally
1:30:55
change how we view things or how we view things will play out.
1:31:00
And that's basically, you know, with the case for why I think
1:31:04
things are probably not going to play out exactly as we thought,
1:31:07
which is basically we're not going to, you know, go that much
1:31:11
lower. I think 60K was the bottom.
1:31:14
Let's see, let's wait and see. All right everybody, thank you
1:31:16
guys so much for tuning in. We appreciate it.
1:31:19
We love you guys. We we wouldn't be here without
1:31:21
you. So thank you guys so much for
1:31:22
tuning in on a daily basis during the week.
1:31:26
We love you. I appreciate you all.
1:31:27
Make sure to check out all the simply Bitcoin content that
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