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Why This El Niño Matters More Than You Think · How To Protect The Ocean

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  What if one patch of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean could trigger
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  droughts, floods, coral bleaching, food shortages, and record-breaking
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  temperatures around the world?
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  This is the How to Protect the Ocean podcast, your weekday ocean news update.
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  If you care about staying informed about the ocean every weekday, Monday to Friday,
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  hit that follow button right now on the podcast app that you're listening to this
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  to, and let's get started with the show.
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  Today, we're talking about something that ocean scientists, climate
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  researchers, and governments around the world are watching very closely.
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  It's a developing El Niño, but not just any El Niño, a
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  potentially very strong El Niño.
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  Some scientists are even using the phrase super El Niño.
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  And if you wanna get, like, a true breakdown of what El Niño is and
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  you follow the Basement Biologist on TikTok or on Instagram, I
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  highly recommend that you go there.
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  If I could link to it, I will, because he did a very good rendition of, like,
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  what this is, like, from a scientific point of view, a biologist point of view.
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  I highly recommend that you go do it.
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  But we're gonna talk a little bit about today especially from the conservation,
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  like, why people are so worried.
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  Like, why are scientists so concerned about this year's El Niño?
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  We've had them before but what it could mean for the ocean and
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  for people around the world.
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  So let's get into it.
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  If you've listened to the podcast before, you've probably heard the term El Niño.
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  I've talked about it before.
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  But let's get a quick breakdown, unless you wanna go… If you wanna stop
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  this or wait till after and go back to the Basement Biologist to listen
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  to his rendition of what an El Niño is, he did a really great explanation.
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  But here is the brief.
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  El Niño is a natural climate pattern that happens when the surface waters
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  of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal.
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  That warming changes the wind patterns.
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  Those wind changes affect rainfall.
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  Rainfall affects agriculture.
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  Agriculture affects food prices.
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  And suddenly, a patch of warm ocean is influencing communities
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  thousands of kilometers away.
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  And that's why El Niño is often described as one of the most
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  powerful climate patterns on Earth.
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  And right now, scientists are seeing signals that suggest this event
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  could become exponentially strong.
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  NOAA recently estimated a significant chance that the upcoming event
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  could rank among the strongest El Niño events observed since
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  modern records began in 1950.
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  That's pretty scary because the last few, especially the
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  one in 2016 was pretty scary.
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  There was also a warm blob that came down from the Arctic.
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  It lasted a number of years and it definitely changed our
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  system, like our entire planet.
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  But scientists have been tracking unusually warm water temperatures,
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  large pools of heat below the ocean surface, and atmospheric changes that
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  are all lining up in a way that suggests a major event might be developing.
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  This is why we have baseline data, folks.
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  This is why ocean observing systems are really, really important.
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  Now, here's something important.
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  A strong El Niño doesn't automatically guarantee a disaster.
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  Scientists repeatedly emphasize that stronger events increase
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  the odds of extreme impacts, but they don't guarantee them.
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  Now, think of it as loading the dice.
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  You don't know exactly what number will come up, but you know the odds have
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  changed, and that's why researchers are paying so much attention.
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  So why should ocean conservationists care?
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  That's the question.
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  Because El Niño can affect almost every major ocean issue
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  we talk about on this show.
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  So let's start with coral reefs.
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  When ocean temperature stays elevated for long periods, we know what happens.
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  Corals become stressed.
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  That stress can lead to coral bleaching, and we've already seen widespread
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  bleaching events in recent years.
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  And a strong El Niño can add even more heat to already stressed ocean ecosystems.
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  And you talk about cumulative effects, like, the fisheries.
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  In the Eastern Pacific, warm waters can disrupt nutrient-rich upwelling systems.
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  Normally, cold water rises from the deep in those upwelling systems and
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  bring nutrients to the surface.
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  Those nutrients support plankton, plankton support fish, fish support fisheries.
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  When that process is disrupted, the entire food web changes,
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  and it can feel the impact.
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  So historically, some major El Niño events have severely affected
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  fisheries, including Peru's anchovy fishery during the early 1970s.
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  But the story doesn't stop in the ocean.
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  A strong El Niño can influence droughts in some regions and flooding in others.
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  Parts of Australia, Southeast Asia, and portions of the Amazon
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  often experience hotter and drier conditions during major events.
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  Other regions may see increased rainfall and flooding.
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  That matters because food systems are connected globally.
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  Recent reporting suggests crops like cocoa, coffee, and sugar may be
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  particularly vulnerable if a strong El Niño develops later this year.
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  And here's where the story becomes even bigger than weather.
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  We're not experiencing this El Niño in the same world that
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  existed in 1982 or even in 2015.
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  We are experiencing it in a world that is already warmer because of climate change.
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  Scientists have repeatedly pointed out that the additional heat already
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  present in the atmosphere and the oceans may amplify some of the
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  impacts associated with El Niño.
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  So it's not just El Niño, it's El Niño plus warming planet.
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  That combination is what many researchers find concerning.
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  Now I'm gonna just interrupt quickly.
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  If you are getting value from this quick ocean news update on El Niño, and you
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  wanna follow the show and never miss an episode, please hit that follow button.
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  So there's lots of things to do.
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  I'll be putting up updates of some of the videos that are gonna come out in
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  the future and where I'm gonna go and my strategy, all that kinda stuff.
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  You can support me on Patreon, speakupforblue.com/patreon So what
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  should we watch for over the next few months during this potential El Niño?
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  First, scientists will continue monitoring the Pacific Ocean temperatures because
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  they have the observing system to do that, which is why we need baseline
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  data, and we need to fund baseline data.
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  The strength of the El Niño is measured using several indicators, and
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  researchers will be looking closely to see whether current forecasts continue
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  to strengthen or begin to weaken.
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  Second, we're gonna watch for coral bleaching reports.
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  If ocean temperatures remain elevated, reefs in vulnerable regions could
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  experience additional stress.
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  We've seen the Great Barrier Reef go ninety-four percent bleaching.
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  They recovered in many of those places.
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  But as those bleaches continue to increase, and then we start to get longer
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  periods of ocean warming, that bleaching becomes more and more severe every year.
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  Now, the third thing we're gonna do is we're gonna watch
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  for food and fishery stories.
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  Many of the earliest impacts of El Niño show up in agriculture,
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  fisheries, and water availability.
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  You can almost even see it in the gray whale populations off the West Coast.
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  Something is going on there, and they think that the food shortages or the food
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  displacement because of climate change and current displacement, everything
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  like that, is affecting these gray whales on the West Coast of North America.
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  And finally, we're gonna watch how governments and organizations prepare.
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  The World Meteorological Organization has already urged countries to prepare
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  for potential extreme weather impacts associated with the developing event.
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  If you're on TikTok or Instagram and you follow any meteorologist, they
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  are talking about this super El Niño.
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  I guarantee you they're talking about the super El Niño.
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  The encouraging part is that the forecasting has improved dramatically.
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  Scientists can now see many of the signals months before the strongest
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  impacts occur, so we can prepare better.
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  That doesn't prevent the event.
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  It just gives the communities time to prepare for the event.
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  Farmers can adjust, emergency managers can plan, conservation organizations
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  can monitor vulnerable ecosystems, and policymakers can make decisions
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  before conditions become critical.
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  That's a much better position than humanity was in during some of the most
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  historical El Niño events of the past.
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  So the most important thing to remember is this: a strong El Niño
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  starts in the ocean, but its impacts reach far beyond those coastlines.
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  It can affect coral reefs, fisheries, food systems, water supplies,
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  and communities around the world.
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  That's why ocean monitoring matters, because what happens in
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  the Pacific rarely stays in the Pacific Now, I wanna thank you
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  for joining me on today's episode.
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  That's it for today's episode.
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  If you wanna get ahold of me, you can do so by going to the show notes,
• 8:09
  looking at my social media posts.
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  You can DM me on Instagram, on TikTok, Facebook, wherever you'd like.
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  I'd be more than happy to answer those DMs.
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  And of course, if you wanna support the podcast, and you support the work
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  that I do, putting out the podcast, YouTube videos, newsletters, all the
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  stuff that I do, social media posts, you can do so by becoming a patron.
• 8:27
  Go to speakupforblue.com/patreon.
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  That's speakupforblue.com/patreon.
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  Link is in the show notes.
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  But thank you for joining me on today's episode of the How
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  to Protect the Ocean podcast.
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  Have a great day.
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  We'll talk to you next time, and happy conservation