Latest / The House Never Wins / NFL Preseason Just Changed The Game | The House Never Wins Episode #105

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NFL Preseason Just Changed The Game | The House Never Wins Episode #105 · The House Never Wins

• 0:00
  - Welcome back to The House Never Wins episode
• 0:04
  - 105.
• 0:06
  - And football,
• 0:08
  - people, it's officially
• 0:10
  - back.
• 0:11
  - The regular season is still a few weeks
• 0:13
  - away,
• 0:15
  - but we are already talking
• 0:17
  - bets.
• 0:18
  - So
• 0:19
  - welcome, pal.
• 0:21
  - Hi, Fabi. It's a pleasure to be with
• 0:23
  - you again here
• 0:24
  - in the House Never Win. So today, we're
• 0:27
  - doing something a little different. We are not
• 0:30
  - giving you a lecture about bankroll management.
• 0:34
  - We are not just telling you, don't chase
• 0:37
  - your losses.
• 0:39
  - We are actually going through the NFL preseason
• 0:42
  - week two betting board. 16 games foul, four
• 0:46
  - days,
• 0:47
  - money lines, spreads, totals,
• 0:50
  - and, of course, our picks.
• 0:53
  - And because it's preseason,
• 0:56
  - there's one giant
• 0:58
  - disclaimer. The line can move dramatically
• 1:01
  - depending on who actually plays. Exactly about in
• 1:05
  - the preseason,
• 1:06
  - you can just look at the roster and
• 1:09
  - say, this is the better team. You have
• 1:12
  - to ask, who is playing?
• 1:14
  - How long are they playing? And who is
• 1:17
  - playing quarterback?
• 1:19
  - Current lines we're using today are from FanDuels,
• 1:24
  - August 17 board,
• 1:26
  - and they can move before
• 1:29
  - kickoff bow. So let's get into it, Fabi.
• 1:33
  - Okay.
• 1:34
  - Thursday
• 1:35
  - night starts with Las Vegas Raiders visiting Houston,
• 1:39
  - Texas,
• 1:40
  - current FanDuel
• 1:41
  - Moneyline.
• 1:42
  - Hear me out. Raiders
• 1:44
  - plus 110
• 1:46
  - Texans
• 1:47
  - minus 130.
• 1:50
  - And the spread is Texans
• 1:53
  - minus 1.5,
• 1:55
  - and the total is
• 1:57
  - 38.5.
• 2:00
  - So, Fabi, I'm taking the Raiders
• 2:03
  - are at plus a 110.
• 2:06
  - Why?
• 2:07
  - I'm taking Houston
• 2:09
  - at minus 130.
• 2:11
  - Here's why I like the Raiders at plus
• 2:15
  - a 110,
• 2:16
  - I don't need them to dominate.
• 2:18
  - It just need them to win the game
• 2:21
  - often enough to justify that price, Bobby. I'm
• 2:24
  - willing to pay the minus 130
• 2:27
  - because Houston is the home of favorite,
• 2:31
  - and I'm more comfortable
• 2:32
  - laying a small number than trusting an underdog
• 2:37
  - in preseason.
• 2:38
  - But here's where it gets
• 2:41
  - interesting.
• 2:42
  - The Super Bowls market
• 2:44
  - has Houston
• 2:46
  - at 18 to one, while Las Vegas is
• 2:49
  - way back
• 2:51
  - at 150
• 2:52
  - to one. And that's exactly why you can't
• 2:55
  - use Super Bowl odds to blindly bet a
• 2:58
  - preseason game, Fabi.
• 3:00
  - Houston being 18 to one to win the
• 3:03
  - Super Bowl doesn't mean Houston is automatically
• 3:06
  - a good bet at minus at a 130
• 3:10
  - to nine. Correct.
• 3:12
  - Tonight questions is, is Houston
• 3:15
  - more likely than the price implies?
• 3:18
  - Now
• 3:20
  - we got another huge game.
• 3:23
  - San Francisco
• 3:25
  - at Los Angeles Charger.
• 3:27
  - Current money line, 40 niners plus 104,
• 3:31
  - Chargers
• 3:32
  - minus 122.
• 3:35
  - Total, 39.5.
• 3:39
  - Oh, the chargers is my team. I'm taking
• 3:41
  - the 40 niners plus a 104.
• 3:46
  - I'm unbelievable.
• 3:48
  - I'm taking the chargers minus 122,
• 3:51
  - and this is a classic example of two
• 3:54
  - different betting philosophies.
• 3:56
  - I get the underdog basically at even money.
• 3:59
  - If I'm going to choose a side, that's
• 4:01
  - attractive. Oh my god. I'm paying the favorite
• 4:04
  - price because the chargers
• 4:07
  - are only laying 1.5
• 4:09
  - points.
• 4:09
  - That's much different proposition
• 4:12
  - than that lying at minus 122
• 4:15
  - on a team at minus seven. And here's
• 4:18
  - the Super Bowl comparison,
• 4:20
  - Fabi. San Francisco is currently 19 to one
• 4:23
  - to win the Super Bowl. The chargers are
• 4:26
  - 17
• 4:27
  - to one.
• 4:29
  - So
• 4:30
  - the market actually likes the chargers
• 4:33
  - slightly more as the championship
• 4:36
  - contender. But, again,
• 4:37
  - that's a futures market. We're betting one preseason
• 4:42
  - game, and that's important.
• 4:44
  - Yes. So let's talk about the the Friday.
• 4:47
  - Jets and Steelers.
• 4:49
  - Fridays Friday starts with the Jets
• 4:52
  - at Pittsburgh.
• 4:54
  - Jets plus a 138.
• 4:58
  - Steelers
• 4:59
  - minus a 164.
• 5:02
  - Spread Steelers
• 5:03
  - minus 3.5.
• 5:05
  - Total
• 5:06
  - 39.5,
• 5:08
  - Fabi. Okay. I'm taking Pittsburgh minus 164.
• 5:13
  - Okay. I'm taking the Jets plus a 138.
• 5:17
  - This is one where I'm paying the favorite
• 5:21
  - tax.
• 5:23
  - And I'm not at plus a 138.
• 5:26
  - The jets are giving us a significantly
• 5:29
  - bigger payout, Fabi. But there's another important number,
• 5:32
  - pal. Pittsburgh, it's a it's 50 to one
• 5:36
  - to win the Super Bowl. The Jets are
• 5:39
  - 200
• 5:40
  - to one. So, Fabi, if you ask me
• 5:43
  - which organization I trust more over an entire
• 5:47
  - season, obviously, I'm gonna say Pittsburgh,
• 5:50
  - but that's not the bet we are making.
• 5:54
  - Okay. Now let's talk about Carolina at the
• 5:57
  - Jacksonville.
• 5:59
  - Panthers plus 116,
• 6:02
  - Jawors
• 6:03
  - minus 134,
• 6:06
  - Sprout
• 6:07
  - Jacksonville
• 6:08
  - minus 2.5,
• 6:10
  - and the total
• 6:11
  - 39.5.
• 6:14
  - I'm taking Bobby, Carolina
• 6:18
  - plus a 116.
• 6:20
  - Oh my god.
• 6:21
  - Jacksonville for me minus 134.
• 6:25
  - Jacksonville, Bobby, is a team I think the
• 6:27
  - market is giving a little more respect to
• 6:29
  - than Carolina.
• 6:31
  - But at plus a 116,
• 6:34
  - I like the Panthers as the value side.
• 6:37
  - And and Jacksonville
• 6:39
  - Super Bowl's odds are 30 to one, and
• 6:42
  - Carolina's
• 6:43
  - is
• 6:44
  - 90 to one.
• 6:46
  - So
• 6:47
  - Jacksonville
• 6:48
  - has the clearly stronger
• 6:50
  - long term market
• 6:52
  - perception. And now let's talk about Packers and
• 6:55
  - Broncos. Now this is where the numbers get
• 6:59
  - interesting,
• 7:00
  - Fabi. So hear me out. Green Bay is
• 7:02
  - plus a 190.
• 7:04
  - Denver is minus
• 7:06
  - 230.
• 7:08
  - And Denver also is minus 5.5.
• 7:13
  - The total,
• 7:14
  - 38.5,
• 7:16
  - Fabi. I'm taking Denver. Of course.
• 7:19
  - And I'm taking Green Bay plus a 190.
• 7:24
  - Oh my god. See, about a lion minus
• 7:27
  - 230
• 7:28
  - in pre season. Yes. I'm agree with you.
• 7:31
  - Exactly. That's the point. Denver might be more
• 7:34
  - likely to win, but minus 230
• 7:37
  - means you are paying a huge
• 7:40
  - premium for that probability.
• 7:42
  - Okay. But Green Bay is 18 to one
• 7:46
  - to win the Super Bowl. Denver is 20
• 7:49
  - to one. So interesting,
• 7:51
  - the long term market actually has Green Bay
• 7:54
  - slightly ahead. But tonight,
• 7:57
  - Denver is a huge
• 7:59
  - favorite.
• 8:00
  - That's preseason
• 8:01
  - betting. Yes. Yes. Now Saturday begins with Washington
• 8:06
  - at Detroit.
• 8:08
  - Washington
• 8:09
  - plus 132
• 8:12
  - Detroit minus 156,
• 8:15
  - the spread lions minus 2.5,
• 8:19
  - and the total
• 8:20
  - is 36.5,
• 8:22
  - Pau.
• 8:23
  - I'm taking Washington
• 8:25
  - plus a 132,
• 8:26
  - Fabi. And you? We are not friends today,
• 8:29
  - pal. No. I'm taking
• 8:32
  - I'm taking Detroit
• 8:34
  - minus 156.
• 8:37
  - Fabi, Detroit Super Bowl odds are 19 to
• 8:40
  - one.
• 8:41
  - Washington is 60 to one.
• 8:44
  - So
• 8:45
  - the long term market clearly
• 8:48
  - favors
• 8:49
  - Detroit.
• 8:49
  - But, again, the question isn't who is the
• 8:53
  - better team? Is
• 8:54
  - is Detroit
• 8:55
  - minus 156
• 8:58
  - the right price
• 9:00
  - for this specific
• 9:02
  - preseason
• 9:03
  - game? Now let's talk about Falcons and Colts.
• 9:07
  - Atlanta at
• 9:09
  - Indianapolis
• 9:10
  - Falcons plus a 132
• 9:13
  - Colts minus a 156
• 9:16
  - total.
• 9:17
  - 37.5,
• 9:18
  - Fabi. Taking
• 9:20
  - Indianapolis
• 9:22
  - minus
• 9:23
  - 156.
• 9:25
  - Okay. I'm disagreeing again. So I'm gonna choose
• 9:28
  - Atlanta plus a 132.
• 9:32
  - Okay. Indianapolis
• 9:33
  - Indianapolis
• 9:34
  - is
• 9:35
  - 60 to one to win the Super Bowl,
• 9:37
  - and Atlanta is 130
• 9:40
  - to one. So this is another case where
• 9:43
  - the favorite also has a better futures price,
• 9:46
  - but that's not necessary enough, Fabi.
• 9:50
  - Okay. Now this is a good one. Buffalo
• 9:53
  - at Cleveland. Buffalo plus 102
• 9:57
  - and Cleveland minus 120,
• 10:00
  - the spread. It's for Browns,
• 10:02
  - minus 1.5,
• 10:04
  - and the total, it's 39.5.
• 10:08
  - Okay. I'm taking Buffalo plus
• 10:10
  - a 102.
• 10:13
  - I'm taking Cleveland
• 10:15
  - minus 120.
• 10:17
  - Oh my god.
• 10:18
  - And this is the one it's fascinating, Fabio,
• 10:21
  - because Buffalo is one of the biggest Super
• 10:24
  - Bowl contenders
• 10:26
  - in the entire market. So they are currently
• 10:29
  - a a plus 1,000.
• 10:32
  - Cleveland
• 10:33
  - plus 2,000.
• 10:37
  - That's a massive
• 10:39
  - difference.
• 10:41
  - Yes. But Buffalo being a Super Bowl favorite
• 10:43
  - doesn't mean they should be favored in every
• 10:47
  - preseason game. Exactly. And if you're watching this
• 10:51
  - game from a betting perspective,
• 10:53
  - the first thing I check is who's actually
• 10:56
  - taking the snaps. Now Baltimore at Minnesota,
• 11:01
  - Ravens plus 134,
• 11:04
  - and the Vikings minus 158.
• 11:07
  - The spreads is for Minnesota
• 11:09
  - minus three. The total 37.5,
• 11:13
  - Pau.
• 11:14
  - Okay.
• 11:15
  - Let me check if you agree with me.
• 11:17
  - I'm taking Baltimore plus a 134.
• 11:20
  - Okay. At this point, I'm I'm not surprised
• 11:22
  - anymore. I'm taking Minnesota.
• 11:25
  - I'm taking Minnesota
• 11:26
  - at minus 158.
• 11:30
  - Okay. Baltimore is currently
• 11:32
  - a 10 to one to win the Super
• 11:34
  - Bowl. Minnesota
• 11:36
  - is 50
• 11:37
  - to one.
• 11:39
  - That's another massive
• 11:41
  - difference. And yet Baltimore is the underdog tonight,
• 11:44
  - so that's exactly why futures odds and games
• 11:48
  - odds should be treated
• 11:50
  - as two completely different things, Swabbie. Okay, Pau.
• 11:54
  - Now we get to the one of the
• 11:56
  - most interesting
• 11:58
  - games of the entire entire slate, New Orleans
• 12:02
  - at the Rams. Hear me out. Saints, minus
• 12:06
  - 132.
• 12:09
  - Rams, plus 112.
• 12:12
  - The spread is for Saints,
• 12:13
  - minus 1.5,
• 12:15
  - and the total is 37.5.
• 12:19
  - Okay. Crossing fingers you agree with me. I'm
• 12:21
  - taking the Rams,
• 12:23
  - plus a 112.
• 12:26
  - No. I'm taking New Orleans minus 132.
• 12:31
  - And here's the crazy part, Bobby. The Rams
• 12:34
  - are currently the favorite to win Super Bowl
• 12:37
  - at plus 550.
• 12:42
  - New Orleans is 19
• 12:45
  - 90 to one.
• 12:48
  - So we're looking at the Super Bowl favorite
• 12:51
  - as a preseason
• 12:52
  - home underdog. And that's probably the best example
• 12:55
  - tonight of why you don't simply bet based
• 12:59
  - on a team's on a team's reputation, Fabi.
• 13:02
  - The Rams can be the best team over,
• 13:05
  - 17 game regular season and still
• 13:09
  - lose the preseason game. Yes. Yes. Now let's
• 13:13
  - talk about the Giants at Miami.
• 13:16
  - The Giants as minus 138,
• 13:20
  - and Miami is is plus 118.
• 13:23
  - The total, 37.5.
• 13:25
  - Wow.
• 13:26
  - I'm taking Miami Dolphins plus a 118.
• 13:31
  - I'm taking the Giants
• 13:32
  - minus 138.
• 13:35
  - Miami Super Bowl odds are three hundred and
• 13:39
  - fifty two one. The Giants
• 13:41
  - are seventy two one, Fabi. So so despite
• 13:46
  - Miami
• 13:47
  - be being the home underdog tonight that the
• 13:50
  - Giants have significantly better futures odds.
• 13:54
  - And, again,
• 13:56
  - different markets, different
• 13:58
  - information.
• 13:59
  - Now let's talk about
• 14:01
  - Eagles and Patriots.
• 14:03
  - Philadelphia
• 14:04
  - at New England, Eagles
• 14:06
  - plus a 100.
• 14:08
  - Patriots,
• 14:09
  - minus a 118.
• 14:12
  - Spread the New England, it's,
• 14:15
  - minus,
• 14:16
  - 1.5,
• 14:18
  - and the total is 37.5,
• 14:21
  - Fabi.
• 14:22
  - I'm taking Philadelphia
• 14:24
  - at even money.
• 14:26
  - Let me add up the cash.
• 14:29
  - I'm taking New England
• 14:31
  - at minus a 118.
• 14:33
  - No way, Pau.
• 14:36
  - And hear me out.
• 14:38
  - Philadelphia, it's 16 to one to win the
• 14:40
  - Super Bowl, and New England, it's also
• 14:44
  - 16
• 14:45
  - to one.
• 14:46
  - Yeah. The same. So this one is almost
• 14:49
  - a coin flip from a future's perspective, Fabi,
• 14:53
  - which makes the tiny difference, the game MoneyLion,
• 14:57
  - even more interesting.
• 14:59
  - Yes. Now I love this game. Chicago
• 15:02
  - at Cincinnati.
• 15:04
  - Both teams are sitting at
• 15:07
  - minus 118
• 15:10
  - on the money line. Cincinnati
• 15:13
  - minus 1.5
• 15:15
  - for a total 40.5.
• 15:18
  - Okay. I'm taking Cincinnati.
• 15:21
  - I take Chicago.
• 15:22
  - Chicago
• 15:23
  - is,
• 15:24
  - 24 to one to win the Super Bowl,
• 15:26
  - and Cincinnati
• 15:27
  - is 20 to one. So Cincinnati
• 15:30
  - has the better future number,
• 15:33
  - but basically
• 15:34
  - no separation on the game money line. This
• 15:37
  - is exactly
• 15:38
  - when I'd start looking beyond the money line.
• 15:42
  - Who is playing? Who gets more snaps?
• 15:45
  - Which backup
• 15:46
  - quarterback
• 15:47
  - look better last week? That's where your edge
• 15:51
  - can come from. And here's the other game.
• 15:54
  - Kansas City at Tampa Bay, Fabi. Chiefs,
• 15:58
  - plus a 152.
• 16:00
  - Buccaneers, minus a 180.
• 16:04
  - Spread, Tampa Bay is minus
• 16:07
  - 3.5.
• 16:09
  - Total,
• 16:10
  - 37.5,
• 16:11
  - Fabi. I'm taking Kansas City plus 152.
• 16:16
  - Okay. I'm taking Tampa Bay minus a 180.
• 16:20
  - But you love Kansas City. Oh my god.
• 16:22
  - Okay. This is another famous
• 16:24
  - team trap. Kansas City is 16 to one
• 16:28
  - to win the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay is
• 16:31
  - 55 to one.
• 16:33
  - But, Fabi, the Chiefs are plus a 152
• 16:37
  - tonight. So if you are a casual bettor,
• 16:40
  - you might immediately think,
• 16:42
  - Mahomes,
• 16:43
  - Chiefs, take Kansas City. Yeah. And that's exactly
• 16:47
  - the type of emotional betting we're talking about.
• 16:51
  - The name on the Hillman
• 16:54
  - doesn't determine
• 16:55
  - the preseason
• 16:56
  - line.
• 16:57
  - Now Dallas at Arizona.
• 16:59
  - Dallas is plus 102.
• 17:02
  - Arizona, it's minus 120.
• 17:05
  - The spread is from from Arizona,
• 17:08
  - minus
• 17:08
  - 1.5,
• 17:10
  - and the total 37.5.
• 17:13
  - Okay. I'm taking Dallas,
• 17:15
  - plus a 102.
• 17:17
  - I'm taking Arizona
• 17:19
  - minus 120.
• 17:21
  - Okay. Dallas is 25 to one to win
• 17:24
  - the Super Bowl, and Arizona
• 17:27
  - is 500
• 17:29
  - to one.
• 17:30
  - 500
• 17:31
  - to one. That's
• 17:34
  - about as far apart
• 17:36
  - as you can get. So, Fabi,
• 17:39
  - Dallas is the underdog tonight, and that is
• 17:43
  - the entire lesson of this episode.
• 17:46
  - And finally,
• 17:48
  - Sunday
• 17:49
  - night football.
• 17:51
  - The defending
• 17:52
  - Super Bowl champion, the Seattle Seahawks,
• 17:55
  - visit Tennessee. Seattle
• 17:58
  - plus 114,
• 18:00
  - Tennessee minus 134,
• 18:03
  - the spread titans
• 18:04
  - minus 2.5,
• 18:06
  - and the total 38.5.
• 18:09
  - So I'm taking Seattle plus a 114.
• 18:14
  - Yes. I'm taking Tennessee
• 18:15
  - minus 134.
• 18:17
  - And Seattle is 11 to one to repeat
• 18:20
  - as a Super Bowl champions.
• 18:22
  - Tennessee
• 18:23
  - is a 130
• 18:26
  - to one, Fabi.
• 18:28
  - So the defending Sean, Bione, is an an
• 18:31
  - underdog in the precision.
• 18:33
  - Again, it doesn't mean the market suddenly thinks
• 18:37
  - Tennessee is better than Seattle. Okay?
• 18:39
  - It means we're betting this game
• 18:43
  - under these
• 18:44
  - circumstances
• 18:45
  - with these players potentially
• 18:48
  - getting these snaps. Yes. So let's go into
• 18:52
  - final betting board, Fabi.
• 18:54
  - We've gone through the entire week two board.
• 18:58
  - Give me your three favorite bets. Okay. Number
• 19:02
  - three,
• 19:03
  - Chargers are minus 122.
• 19:06
  - Number two,
• 19:08
  - Vers,
• 19:09
  - plus 100.
• 19:10
  - And my favorite,
• 19:12
  - the Rams at plus 112.
• 19:16
  - I know they're the Super Bowl favorite,
• 19:19
  - and that's exactly
• 19:20
  - why I want to watch the situation
• 19:24
  - closely
• 19:25
  - before kickoff.
• 19:26
  - So, Fabi, I'm going with mine. Number three,
• 19:30
  - 40 niners plus a 104.
• 19:33
  - Number two, bills plus a 102.
• 19:37
  - And my favorite,
• 19:39
  - it's Seattle
• 19:40
  - plus a 114.
• 19:43
  - But remember, these are preseason
• 19:47
  - bets.
• 19:47
  - Don't treat them like regular season bets. And
• 19:51
  - don't bet a preseason game just because
• 19:54
  - it's on television. And that's it for this
• 19:58
  - episode 105
• 20:00
  - of The House Never Wins.
• 20:02
  - We went through the entire
• 20:05
  - NFL preseason
• 20:06
  - week two board, looked at the money lines,
• 20:10
  - the spreads, the totals, and even checked where
• 20:13
  - the teams currently sit in the Super Bowl
• 20:16
  - market. And the biggest lesson,
• 20:18
  - the best team
• 20:20
  - isn't always the best bet.
• 20:22
  - The biggest favorite
• 20:24
  - isn't always the safest bet. And, Pau,
• 20:28
  - sometimes,
• 20:29
  - the ugly
• 20:30
  - underdog is exactly
• 20:32
  - where the value is. Exactly, Fabi. So we'll
• 20:36
  - see you next week.
• 20:37
  - Please enjoy the game the games, but bet
• 20:41
  - responsibly.
• 20:42
  - And remember The house
• 20:44
  - never wins never wins.
• 20:47
  - We are waiting for you on YouTube, Instagram,
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• 20:51
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• 20:54
  - on lacasanogano.com.
• 20:57
  - Remember to subscribe,
• 20:58
  - enter your information, and verify yourself to collect
• 21:02
  - all your money from week two of NFL.
• 21:06
  - Bye.
• 21:07
  - Bye.