Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 8/18/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Soybean Crush, Hog Health, and a Surprising Bond Market

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 8/18/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Soybean Crush, Hog Health, and a Surprising Bond Market · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here, live from Joliet, Illinois.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Today on this fine Tuesday morning, we're going to talk about that Nopa soybean crush.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen a slight decrease in PRRSV or PERS on the hog side of things, and something pretty interesting is happening on the 30 year.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that here in a bit.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: The back months were up just a bit.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: They were down$1.60 at$3.32, not quite$3.33.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs were down just a tick at$81,725.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: Not much going on there.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: You know, it's kind of been, we don't see a lot at the beginning of the week.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: And normally by the end of the week, we see lots of volatility and movement.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so make sure to pay attention as we progress through this fine work week.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Quoting the grain market live with my quotes here from plus 500 T4 trading software.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: That's what we use over here.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: I actually worked out of the plus 500 offices for a little while when I moved out here to Illinois.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: The corn September contract is at 466.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans Sep are at 1207, and Chicago wheat is at 673 also in the month of September.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Well, moving on to the weather side of things, we have some relief in sight, just a little bit mine, and I'm pretty excited to bring this on because the corn belt is hopefully going to turn just a little bit drier here.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: And relief really in target wet spots in the northern corn belt.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, that'd be northern Illinois, uh, Indiana, and Ohio.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be kind of cooler and a bit drier, and some of that cool wave is going to push into Kansas and a bit into Oklahoma, which is much needed there, kind of through the 22nd to the 25th.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: Should see a slight decrease in temps, which is great to hear for those folks down there that have been burning up.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: On the grain market side of things, I figured I'd pop this on real quick.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: The no put the July soybean crush at 2165 million bushels under the low end of trade estimates and a record for July.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: But the daily crush rate actually slowed.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: It was at around 7 or 6.99 million bushels a day, if you want to be exact.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: But June's was at 7.14.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: Interesting to watch the soybean market.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: Overnight, we saw a big rally yesterday in soybeans, and overnight, man, nothing really happened.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: Kind of a tick up and a tick down.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: We're just slightly down this morning, but not much going on there.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: On to the livestock market discussion.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: We had popped this chart on.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: I've popped this chart on, I think, twice before this, and I've talked about before how it's good to see a decline, but we really want to see, and when it comes to PRRSV or PERS, as it's more commonly called, we've wanted to see a decline in that blue bar down there.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: Those are sows uh in farrowing houses, sows and sow farms.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: That is where PERS hits the hardest.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: And we really want to make sure that we can keep the farrowing houses clean and healthy, we can affect the rest of the supply chain from there on out.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: And we finally started to see a bit of a decline there in that blue line.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, we need to market doing great.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: We'd love to see that.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: So make sure.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: And if you're in the hog side of things, say your prayers because be grateful because it was getting a little concerning there for a little while, the sheer number of cases that we had.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: On to the 30-year treasury yield, it topped at 5.33%, a new 19-year high on inflation and spending concerns.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: This comes early hours of Tuesday morning, saw yields on the the U.S.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: 30-year treasury yield add two basis points to the trade, around 5.33%, nearing the highest level since 2002.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: With the highest level in more than two decades, amid worsening uh U.S.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: fiscal situation and persistently higher inflation, says traders worried.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: There's bigger markets out there than the grain markets, and it's what we love to focus on here.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: We love the agricultural side.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's what drives us and it's what fuels us.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: But these outside markets have such a grand effect that oftentimes we don't give them enough credit.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and pay attention to the 30-year treasury yield because it is doing some pretty unique things that affects the economy as a whole.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: On the economic calendar for today, the ADP weekly employment change comes out here, came out just a minute ago at 7.15 a.m.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: Housing starts and building permits comes out at 7.30 here in a few minutes, and pending home sales comes out at 9.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: I am actually interested to see what happens in these reports just to kind of get a firmer gauge on what's going on in the economy.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's all I have for you today.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: It's always a pleasure to have you on every single morning with AgSquawk AM.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: We're getting more and more views from this show, and it's cool to see.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: If you have anything you'd like to see in future shows, make sure and let us know.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: And I'd like to make sure and mention our sponsor, Trade the News.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: I don't probably bring them up enough on the morning show as I should.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: There are squawk service that goes around the clock to bring you the best news as soon as it comes out.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: And head on over to our website at www.agbull.com.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: Look at our premium side.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: It's$25 or$250 and$250 annually.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: It's a subscription that we have built, not only for people that trade the markets, but people that are day-to-day involved in production agriculture.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: The text updates that you get there are so valuable when we see weird spikes in the markets.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: When we have plant closes like we did just the other day, we had news out as soon as possible around the clock.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: With that, I'm Jed Sidwell with Ag Bull Media.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.