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Transcript

“It's wide open!” · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Jon Lovett.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: I'm Tommy Vitor. Later in the pod, Lovett's interview with
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Varshini Prakash, the climate activist who leads the Sunrise Movement. First,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: we're going to talk about the Trump administration's latest lies
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: about Iran and how the public perceives his handling of
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the crisis. It's also a big week in the 2020 primary,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: from a new Des Moines Register poll that shows a
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: wide-open race to the next debate on Tuesday night. Lovett,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: how was Love It or Leave It this weekend?
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Great Love It or Leave It.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Good. Check it out.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Just check it out. It was a really fun episode.
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: Hari Kondabalu, Alice Wetterlin, Ben Rhodes came by to help
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: us understand Iran.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: Worldos.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: I've never heard of them. It was a very.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: It was a great episode.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Excellent. That's it. Season two of The Wilderness has arrived.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: You can listen to the first two episodes right now.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: In the first episode, we look at what the 2018
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: midterms can teach us about 2020. We dive into the
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: debate about turnout versus persuasion and talk about the best
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: path to 270 electoral votes in terms of which states
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: to focus on and which voters to focus on. In
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: the second episode, we focus on the Northeast. We meet
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: an incredibly inspiring woman who helped flip a Trump county
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: in western Pennsylvania. And I sit down with the first
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: of four focus groups outside of Philadelphia. Check it out.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Learn more at thewildernesspodcast.com.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Go subscribe. Why haven't you subscribed yet? I have, John.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: I have as well.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Well, a lot of you Pod Save America listeners, go
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: smash that subscribe button. Finally, we'll be covering Tuesday's debate
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: on our group thread at youtube.com slash crookedmedia. We'll also
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: be shifting our pod schedule up this week to cover
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: the debate. So we'll be recording an episode on Wednesday morning,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: the day after the debate, with Dan and John and
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Tommy right here in the studio that we'll be releasing
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: later that day. And that will be in place of
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: our normal Thursday pod. So, big debate. Big debate. Let's
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: get to the news. You guys won't believe this, but
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: it appears that the Trump administration is lying about the
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: reason that they led us to the brink of war
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: with Iran. Their original rationale. for assassinating Qasem Soleimani was
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: that he was planning an imminent attack. That was the word, imminent.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: And Trump has since elaborated on this, telling Laura Ingraham
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: that four U.S. embassies were targeted. But this has now
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: been contradicted by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who said
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: the attacks were imminent, but that, quote, we don't know
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: precisely when and we don't know precisely where. Interesting. Interesting
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: definition of imminent is usually time. It's a time based condition,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: I thought. But, you know, who knows? That was also
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: contradicted on Sunday when Defense Secretary Mark Esper said that
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: he hadn't seen any intelligence to indicate that the four
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: embassies were targets, but that, quote, what the president said
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: was he believed it probably could have been true.
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: And then.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: That squares with me. I mean, that sounds legal. And
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: that's all I was going to write. Then I wake
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: up this morning to an NBC news story that says
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Trump had apparently authorized the assassination of Soleimani seven months ago.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: which explains why it was on the menu of options
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: that was provided to him. Tommy, do you see any
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: way the strike could be legally justified if, in fact,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: there was no imminent attack planned, which it looks like
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: there wasn't?
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: I think it's important to remember that there's a debate
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: that's important about whether it's legal, but that doesn't mean
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: it's smart policy.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: So there's sort of two filters with which to view this.
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: The legality question is complicated. There's international law, there's domestic law.
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: But a lot of this law is shaky because domestic
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: law is precedent set by various administrations, OLC opinions that
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: are that are built on previous actions. And none of
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: that is necessarily legal, per se, or right, because there's
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: no one to adjudicate these steps except for us, the voters.
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: The administration has offered like five different claims now for
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: the imminence, right? Lovett mentioned last week that Mike Pence
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: was tweeting about 9-11 in Iran. That was novel for
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: a few hours until it was shut down. They do
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: seem to have latched onto this imminence claim. They say
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: that they were acting in self-defense because of an imminent
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: threat from Soleimani, but they've undercut that argument now several ways.
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: The first is that the first statement out of DOD
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: the night of the strike didn't mention imminence. So it
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: seems like they've cobbled together their legal justification after the fact. Uh, second,
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: the nature of this imminent threat keeps changing. Was it
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: a threat to the Baghdad embassy? Trump suggests it was
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: a threat on four different embassies, but none of those
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: embassies were notified about a threat. You would think that
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: if you're working in an embassy with this scary, big threat,
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: you would be told about it and maybe told to
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: act accordingly.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: Third, they refuse to provide evidence of this imminent threat
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: to Congress, including to the gang of eight who get
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: briefed on like everything, even the most sensitive stuff. Um,
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: and they're also supposed to consult with Congress beforehand, but
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: we're sort of past that point. So It does seem
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: like they've latched onto this imminence as their legal rationale,
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: but it is not holding water. And ultimately, they can
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: prove it. They can declassify whatever they want. Trump can
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: walk Sean Hannity into the Oval and show him all
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: the intel that he's got. But the thing to remember
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: is that we, the voters, are the one that will
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: kind of adjudicate these claims.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, love it. That's what I was going to say.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Where does this leave us now, right? It sort of
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: reminds me of some of the shifting explanations around the
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Ukraine scandal. Remember it was, well, if there was a
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: quid pro quo, that would be bad, but there's no
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: quid pro quo. And then there was a quid pro quo.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: And then they're like, oh, the quid pro quo doesn't matter.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: And so it's like, you know, you could see Trump
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: and the administration. I mean, this is what's happening. They
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: don't really care about this imminent attack explanation anymore. Trump
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: is basically just out there saying, well, he's a bad
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: guy and I get to kill bad guys if I want.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: That's the deal. And Democrats love bad guys and I don't,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: and I kill them. It seems like that he is
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: politically comfortable saying, going with that argument and saying, I
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: don't really give a shit if you prove that we're
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: all lying about this imminent attack stuff.
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think, you know, the imminence defense is
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: not really, they've not really even really tried to make
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: an argument that not only was there a clear imminent threat,
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: that killing Soleimani would have prevented it. They've not made
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: any argument like that. And by the way, national security
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: officials in the Trump administration going on television saying they
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: can't back up what the president's saying is a big
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: deal as well, in part because there's only two things,
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: there's only two ways this can be true. Either One,
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: the president's lying, which is obviously what's going on. Or two,
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: there was an imminent threat against Americans around the world
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: and various people charged with protecting Americans don't know about it.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: The president knew about it and nobody else knew about it.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Including his secretary of defense.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: Including the secretary of defense didn't have the information. The
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: other piece of this too, you know, again, there's so
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: many ways in which what Trump is doing is reprehensible
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: at once. Uh, They've also not told, they've not provided
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: any of this intelligence to the Gang of Eight. These
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: are the eight people, half Democrats, half Republicans. They are
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: the leaders in the Senate, the leaders in the House,
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: and the leaders of the Intelligence Committee. And, you know,
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: they've insinuated over the course of the past, whatever, week
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: and a half, that they could entrust these people with
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: this intelligence. And it's just worth remembering, we're talking about
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Adam Schiff, and Mark Warner. He's
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: obviously not impugning the Republicans. He is basically making a
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: claim that these four human beings cannot be trusted with
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: sensitive national security information. That is horseshit. These are the
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: most trustworthy people in our government.
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: He tweeted that Schumer would tell the Iranians. I mean, look,
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: Obama took an expanded take on the definition of imminence
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: when it came to al-Qaeda leaders. You didn't have to
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: be amassing troops on a border planning to invade us
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: for us to think that was an imminent threat. If
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: you were a senior operational al-Qaeda leader... who is plotting
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: attacks on Americans all day, every day. Obama's Justice Department, OLC,
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: everybody in between, believe that we could take a lethal
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: force against those individuals. But, you know, equating, we were
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: at war with al-Qaeda, and equating that rationale for how
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: you would deal with an al-Qaeda operational leaders with Qasem Soleimani,
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: who's a senior general in Iran, is a big deal.
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: And the risk of escalation is enormous. I mean, we
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: should just pause to say that since the strike, We've
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: sent tens of thousands more troops to the Middle East.
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: ISIS missions and those training missions are paused. The Iraqi
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: government has voted us out. Iran has stepped away from
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: the Iran nuclear deal. And we learned that Trump ordered
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: a second strike against another IRGC target who was a
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: top commander in Yemen. Clearly, that guy wasn't posing an
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: imminent threat. But there's all the risks of escalating a
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: war with Iran by taking out that individual.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Well, I was going to say, I think the lies
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: matter because of the consequences of what happens next. Trump
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: said Iran was cheating on the Iran deal. He lied. Totally.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: It was not true. Pulled out of the Iran deal.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: And now look where we are. All the chaos that
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: has followed is because he lied and got away with
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: it and then just pulled out of the Iran deal.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Now he has lied about an imminent attack on U.S.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: interests and U.S. forces, or at least has failed to
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: provide the evidence or even tried to provide the evidence.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: And now all the consequences that Tommy just mentioned, plus
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: whatever happens from here on out, right? It's one thing
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: if escalation happens, still a bad thing, but it's one
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: thing if escalation happens because there was an imminent attack
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: on our troops or U.S. interests, and we tried to
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: stop it, and then the Iranians escalated and go from there.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: But if there was no imminent attack, and we see
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: further consequences from this, then that means it was just
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: a decision that Trump made, not based on an imminent attack,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: based on whatever he decided was the reason to do this,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: because he wanted to take out Baghdad, because he wanted
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: to um, appease Republican senators who might vote, who might
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: vote to convict him in impeachment, which we, which we also, uh,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: heard about over last week too, that part, part of
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the reason he did this because he was getting pressure
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: from Republican senators who he needed to acquit him in
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: the impeachment trial.
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: Well, because he saw an attack on our embassy on television.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: He's already basically said that. We know that based on
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: reports of what was happening at the time, that this
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: wasn't because somebody came to him and said, you know, Mr. President,
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: we have this incredibly time sensitive information about Soleimani directing
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: an attack against Americans. We know that that is not
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: the inciting incident. They basically said so. And they said
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: so before they realized they were going to go back
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: to the eminence argument.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And so, I mean, I want to go back
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: to what Tommy said a little a couple minutes ago,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: which is the election really is sort of the only
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: way to check this, because last week in Congress, what
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: we saw play out was, you know, they tried that
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: the House passed the war powers resolution and, you know,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: they got a few Republicans on board. But. probably doesn't
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: go anywhere in the Senate. Uh, there was a separate
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: bill that I know you guys have talked about Tommy
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: on positive, the world where Democrats are pushing legislation that
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: would cut off any funding for armed conflict with Iran,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: unless it is explicitly authorized by Congress. Doesn't seem like
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: that has a big chance of passing either. You've seen
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: when like even Matt Gates or Mike Lee or some
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: of these Republicans even momentarily criticize the idea that maybe
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: the president is all powerful and can declare war and
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: assassinate people whenever he wants. Um, They get in so
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: much trouble from other Republicans and then have to go
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: like groveling back to Donald Trump. It's really pathetic. So really,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: I think, you know, it's we have a complete unconstrained
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: president that the election is the only way to the
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: election is only way to do something about it. That's right.
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: Well, Congress has a hand here. I mean, if they
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: could pass the Ro Khanna Bernie Sanders bill that would
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: prevent Trump from spending money on offensive operations against Iran.
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: I think that is a pretty strong step that could take.
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: I think the legislation that was just passed in the
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: House is non-binding. Pelosi didn't want Trump to veto it.
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: I'm not sure why. I actually sort of think that
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: that's good politics if he's vetoing efforts to stop him
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: from going to war in Iran and doing it twice,
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: I believe. He vetoed the Yemen one as well. But
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: I mean, the biggest constraint that we've seen so far
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: on Trump, I think, is this ABC News poll that
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: showed how unpopular war with Iran is.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, let's talk about that poll. The ABC News
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: poll released on Sunday found that 56% of people disapprove
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: of the way that President Trump is handling the current
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: situation with Iran, and that 52% of people believe that
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: the decision to assassinate Soleimani has made the United States
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: less safe. The poll also found that 73% of people
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: were either very or somewhat concerned about the possibility of
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: the United States and Iran entering into a full-scale war.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: And a few other polls have basically found similar results
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: since this crisis began. So much for the big win
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: for Trump, huh? I mean, it's reassuring.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: It's reassuring, you know, if anything can be reassuring, that
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: the American people do not trust Donald Trump to lead
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: the military. They do not trust him to protect national security,
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: and they don't trust him when he offers rationales. It
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: is good to know that for all of the, I think,
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: the trepidation that the rules of politics don't apply to
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump, you know, the American people have been paying attention.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: And Donald Trump does not get the benefit of the doubt.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: He does not get a presumption of good faith or responsibility.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: He is generally viewed as reckless and dangerous. And that
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: applies when he is taking these kinds of unilateral actions.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, Tommy, I don't know what you think about this,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: but I also see that, you know, there's like pundit
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: brain is a bit stuck in 2001, 2002. And it
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: used to be that, you know, showing force equals political
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: strength in politics, right? And Democrats were always pushed to,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: you got to look tough on terrorists and terrorism, just
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: like Republicans, because that's what's politically popular. But I do think,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: you know, two decades later, as we're now still in
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: the middle of two wars and have lost however many
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: soldiers over these years and still have people fighting in
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: these wars, I think there's also a war weariness that
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: enters into the politics just as much as oh, wow,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: that politician is tough because they use military force against
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: a bad guy. I think that's true.
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: I mean, I do think that the legacy of the
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: Iraq war is that a lot of happy talk in
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: advance of a military conflict no longer seems believable to
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: a lot of people. I mean, the fact that Dick
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: Cheney really said we'd be greeted as liberators is so
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: unbelievably absurd when you think about it all these years
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: later that I think people this time around were rightly
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: very concerned about 73%, in fact, were very concerned or
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: somewhat concerned about the possibility of the U.S. and Iran
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: entering into a full-scale war.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: And that's a good thing.
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, because we're not in control of what happens
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: next when you decide to kill a top general of
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: another country.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: They have a hand in this.
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Okay. Lots of 2020 news to talk about. On Friday afternoon,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: the famously accurate Des Moines Register poll had Bernie Sanders
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: at 20%, Elizabeth Warren at 17%, Pete Buttigieg at 16%,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden at 15%. And close on his heels, not
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: sure at 11%. No one else cracked double digits. And
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: with just a few weeks left to go, only 40%
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: of likely caucus goers say that they've made up their minds.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: My very astute political analysis is that this race is
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: wide open. It's anyone's race. Anything could happen. What's your take?
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: What's your take, Lovett?
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think that's, you know, I mean, You
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: said it in a dumb way, but it's true. You know,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: like that between whatever the vagaries of polling and just
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: the way the caucuses will unfold across Iowa, I don't
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: really think you can get that much more specific, especially
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: with this Monmouth poll that came out that showed Biden
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: in the lead instead of Bernie.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: In the lead. Oh, yeah. Let's go through those numbers quickly.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: A Monmouth poll came out today. Smaller sample size. Doesn't
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: know Iowa quite as well as the Des Moines Register poll,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: but it's a poll. So Biden 24, Sanders 18, Pete 17.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Warren 15. That was, yeah, that was the Monmouth poll.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: And anyway, all that, I think, like, redounds to seeing Bernie, Biden, Pete,
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: and Warren all kind of in contention. And I think
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: a lot of this is hard to predict because it
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: plays out in, like, you know, genuine debate, conversation, people
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: moving around a gym in Iowa, and it'll have to
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: do with the enthusiasm of the people that show up
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: to caucus for various candidates, right? Like, if you come
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: at this with the presumption that Bernie and Warren supporters
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: are going to be more enthusiastic in a caucus than
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: Biden supporters, if that's the presumption you're going with. Well,
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: it might mean that, you know, as things shake out
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: in various caucuses, some of those people will move from
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: Biden to Warren and to Bernie, depending on what happens
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: in that room.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Tommy, what were some of your takeaways?
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: So, I mean, I think just the first thing for
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: people to know is that the Des Moines Register poll
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: really is the best in the business. And the sample
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: size is huge. They talked to 700 voters. So this
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: is probably the most accurate poll. And they'll probably do
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: one more before caucus day. So just something to keep
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: an eye out for. I thought a couple of things. One,
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: it's nice to know that traditional politics still works, right?
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, Warren got a lead. People criticized her. She
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: dipped in the polls. She kind of rebounded here. Pete
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: got a lead. People criticized him. He dipped in the polls.
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: He still has time to rebound. Um, if I were Bernie,
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: I would be very happy about this poll all along.
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: It's just felt like it's sometimes literally hard to see
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: his support. Like at the, at the, uh, democratic party
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: dinner that I attended in Iowa, like his folks weren't there.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: So it's hard to know what's going on, but this
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: is a very good number for them. I would be
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: very happy if I were Warren that I rebounded. Uh,
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: that's a shot in the arm. She probably wants and
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: needs going into this. Pete has the biggest universe of
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: people that is, seems to be considering him. So that's
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: good news for him. And I honestly, like, I would
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: want to be in a better place if I were Biden.
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: It's worth noting in the Monmouth poll, they have him leading.
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: But it's still interesting that he hasn't run that hard
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: in Iowa. You know, I think people would argue he
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: doesn't have the most sophisticated organization, but he's still hanging
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: tough there at 15.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So a few things that jumped out at me.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, I am fascinated with the 32% of voters
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: here who are currently split between undecided, Klobuchar, Yang, Booker, Steyer, Tulsi,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: where do they go, right? Because the candidates... So 32%
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: of people are either undersided or not supporting one of
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: the top four candidates who are all above 15%. And
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: of course, as you all learned from Pod Save America
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: in Iowa... There's a 15% viability threshold. And so once
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: the caucus happens on caucus night, if your candidate doesn't
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: hit 15%, you go to another candidate. You have the
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: opportunity to support. And that's precinct by precinct. Right.
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: Basically, there's 1,700 or so mini elections happening on caucus night.
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: And in each of those, you have to have 15%
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: support to be able to get delegates out of that precinct.
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: What you can't see in the top line of the
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: poll is where their support is distributed. Do people have
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: a ton of support? In college towns and not as
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: much across rural parts of Iowa, are they more evenly distributed?
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: Something I think Bernie Sanders' team would point to.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: So you can see that in the poll, which is great.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: You can break it out by rural, suburb, and city.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: They have the subsamples. Rural's pretty evenly split. The Warren
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: is actually slightly ahead. Pete's winning in the suburbs. And
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: then the city looks basically like the poll with Bernie,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: with just a bit of a lead. So that 32%, though,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: that basically... is going to have to disperse between these,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: or might have to disperse between these four candidates, that's
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the whole race right there, especially when these four candidates
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: are so close to each other. And so they did
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: some polling of this 32%, and 55% of them are
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: considering Buttigieg, 53% Biden, 43% are considering Warren, and 41%
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: are considering Sanders. And Sanders is the second choice of
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: 11% of these caucus goers. I agree with Tommy that
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: this is very good news for Bernie Sanders, this entire poll,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: also because 60% of Bernie supporters' minds are made up.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: That's higher than any other candidate. 50% are very enthusiastic
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: compared to 32% for Warren or 26% for Biden and Buttigieg.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: So he's got that going for him. But I think
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: the only warning sign for Bernie is, and this has
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: been the question all along, does he have a ceiling, right?
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Like when you look at that other 32% and how
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: they're going to distribute themselves to you know, fewer of
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: them are considering Bernie than some of the other candidates.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: He's the second choice of fewer of these undecideds than
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: other people. So that is, I think that's something to watch.
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: The one thing that people should know, it's been covered
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: a little bit, but not that much, is that this year,
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: the Iowa Democratic Party is releasing more information. They're going
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: to release the pre-realignment.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: Raw vote total.
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: So before that whole viability discussion that we just talked about,
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: where people are, you have to see if you've got
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: 15% or not, they're going to release that count. And
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: then they're going to release the count after people realign
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: on the second count. So who knows how that will
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: all just be viewed by the punditocracy. The other thing
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: I would just say is like, I follow a lot
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: of the Warren Iowa team on Twitter. I don't follow
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: as many of other campaigns, so they could have been
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: out doing this too. But it's notable that there was
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: like a giant blizzard over the weekend and these kids
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: are all out just canvassing their asses off from dust
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: till dawn in 11 degree weather. And if you're in
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: a rural precinct where like 20 people show up, Can
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: you find those extra two that were on nobody else's
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: radar screen and bring them in a race that's split
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: among this many candidates? That can be the difference. I
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: do think like organization this year could be even more
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: important than ever.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: For sure. I do want to go through just each
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: of the top candidates and just talk about where they
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: are in this poll. So Buttigieg, you know, he basically
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: dipped the most out of anyone between polls. He lost
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: 9% since the last poll. His favorability rating also took
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: a hit. His unfavorability is climbing up by a little bit.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: I think, as Tommy was saying, this is also a
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: consequence of, you know, being in the lead. People start
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: taking shots at you, though he still does have 60
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: percent saying they are considering him in some capacity. That
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: is the biggest number of any of these candidates, which
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: tells me that he is someone who a lot of
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: people like and are considering, but he just has not
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: closed the deal with a lot of people. So there
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: are a lot of questions people have about people that
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: he is not answering yet. And I think maybe some
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: of that has to do with electability. Some of that
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: has to do with he's competing for a lot of
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: the same voters as Joe Biden. And a lot of
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: people see Biden as a safer alternative. He's not so
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: much in the liberal lane anymore as he used to
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: be earlier. So I think that's like a big challenge
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: for him.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: It is so interesting to the electability piece. Each of
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: these candidates, Bernie, Biden, Pete and Warren, they each have
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: an electability case that they're making for themselves. And they
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: each have a pretty tough case against their electability being
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: made against them by their opponents. And and I do
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: really think you feel in these shifting numbers how those
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: electability arguments are resonating, because for each of them, their
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: electability case is in some ways perspective, right? You know,
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: Bernie says, you know, yes, I'm further to the left,
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: and that might dissuade some moderates, but this is the
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: only way to build the enthusiasm and get out the
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: new voters and the young voters we need to win.
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: You know, Biden talks about the moderate case. Pete has
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: an electability argument. Warren has an economic argument. And I
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: think One of the reasons this does still feel so
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: wide open as we head into the final days before
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: the Iowa caucus is because I think none of those
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: arguments are persuasive.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: None of them.
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: No one has a persuasive electability argument, and no one
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: has a persuasive argument against the electability of any of
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: these candidates. And so we're just... Everyone, I think, feels
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: that kind of uncertainty. And I think it has just
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: been playing out in the polls just week after week
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: after week.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: Well, because, you know, so Bernie Sanders had the biggest
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: gain of any candidate between last poll and this poll,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: five points. But the biggest gain between last poll and
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: this poll was undecided, which gained six points. So it's
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: a very unsettled race. Talking about Joe Biden. If I
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: was Joe Biden, I would be worried that my support
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: is a little soft. He has the least enthusiastic supporters.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: Only 22 percent have a very favorable view of Joe Biden,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: which is the lowest, very favorable among the candidates. And
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: only 44 percent of his supporters have made up their mind,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: which is much lower than Bernie and a little bit
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: lower than Pete and Warren, too. So I think that's something.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: I thought they asked an interesting question, which is, of
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: all these factors, what's the most important factor to you
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: in choosing the candidate? Most important to make up your mind.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: Number one, a candidate's ability to unite the country. Sixty
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: nine percent said that was extremely important.
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: I was just about to bring this up. I mean,
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: we a lot of us online mock Joe Biden for
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: talking about Republicans coming to their senses, trying to work
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: with Mitch McConnell. And I think rightly, given the history
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: of how Mitch McConnell has operated over the past. Well,
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: since that piece of shit was born. But it's what
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: voters want to hear. Sometimes things might sound pie in
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: the sky and naive on the campaign trail. but it's
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: incredibly appealing to voters, and maybe they've seen that. Well, look,
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: here's another interesting side on that. They also added bring
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: on Republicans and independents in November as an option, and
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: 50% said that was extremely important. But that's a big
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: difference between 50 and 69 for unite the country. People
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: don't necessarily think that the Democratic candidate is going to
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: unite Republicans with us and fix things in Washington and
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: change Mitch McConnell, but they want their Democratic candidate to try.
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: just because the other side's going to be shit, they
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: don't want you to be shit too. They want you
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: to at least try to reach out. And look, 69%
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: saying that's extremely important, that means it's a lot of
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: Bernie Sanders supporters who believe that. It's a lot of
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: Elizabeth Warren supporters who believe that too. It's not just
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: Biden and Buttigieg people.
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: Well, it's also, I think too, it's like.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: It's the most divorced thing from the online conversation.
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but I also think part of it too is
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: that the way that unity has played out inside of
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: the primary. It has become ideological, which it doesn't have
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: to be.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: That's true.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: Biden has spoken about unity and often in the same
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: breath has talked about what Tommy's referencing, the ability to
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: appeal to Republicans, them coming to their senses, being a
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: consensus in the country, what have you, on policy. But
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's a way to talk about unity that's
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: not about giving in on key policy questions. It's about rhetoric.
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: It's about being an alternative to Donald Trump. It's about
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: not giving into the kind of scorched earth rhetoric that
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump uses all the time. And that is something
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: I think everybody feels, everybody, including some of the most
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: left-wing pieces of our party. The one thing I would
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: say about Bernie Sanders, he's incredibly tough on Donald Trump,
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: of course, but in the way that he actually campaigns,
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: he has his villains, but there's a kind of... There's
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: inspiration and positivity to the way he approaches the problems
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: that we're going to solve and the way we're going
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: to come together as a country without ever giving in
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: on key values questions.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: Or key policy questions. No, I think the should we
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: fight or should we all get along debate has been
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: viewed as ideological by a lot of reporters and a
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: lot of pundits, and it doesn't necessarily have to be.
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: There's two different things. There's an ideological debate within the
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: party about policy, and then there is you know, bringing
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: the country together versus fighting, which then this is hard
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: to hear and voters are complicated. You talk to a
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: lot of voters and they want both. They want someone
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: to shake up Washington and upend the system because it's
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: not working for them and fight all the corporate special
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: interests in Washington. And they want someone to bring the
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: country together. I also, you know, and they don't see
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: it as conflicting. They don't.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: I was thinking about this just in the past few days,
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: you know, we're again, we're now used to it because
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: of Trump, but like Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader in
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: the house going on television saying, you know, basically that,
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: you know, Democrats are sympathetic to Soleimani. They're sympathizers to
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: Soleimani that, you know, all these Republicans saying that we
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: mourn Soleimani, you know, we're on Soleimani's side, we're apologizing
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: for him, what have you. And it just sort of like, God,
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: what shitty fucking coworkers, you know, like you work with
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: Nancy Pelosi on a daily basis. And so it is
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: this crazy thing of like, oh, people want something that
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: gets beyond this kind of politics when we're fighting against
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: a side that has just become just so toxic. And
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: I do understand why people view the way Biden talks
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: about it as naive. And yet, and yet there is
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: still this pull that we all have of something better.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: And yes, it's not on us completely. And no, we
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: can't solve it. We can't make Republicans act like better,
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: more civilized human beings. And yet we still want our
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: candidates to at least believe it's possible and at least
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: we'll do their part to lessen this sort of toxic environment,
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: even if we're not responsible and even if we don't
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: give in on key policy.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: No, where Joe Biden should get to is, no, I
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: don't want to work with these Republicans. Kevin McCarthy's an asshole.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Just send me better Republicans. We're going to beat this crop.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Find some better ones. We're going to beat this crop.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: One other interesting thing on electability. So among voters who
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: have made up their mind already, electability is actually less
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: of a concern in this poll, but among the persuadable
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: caucus goers who haven't made up their mind yet, 59%
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: think it's extremely important too, that we can beat Donald Trump.
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: So as we're starting to decide towards the end, maybe
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: it's not surprising, but like electability is how a lot
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: of these people are going to decide.
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: It's no surprise that Elizabeth Warren is closing hard on
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: electability message. She's talking less about big structural change. She's
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: talking about how she can unite the party, unite coalitions
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: and the, you know, barely anti-Warren talking points that we'll
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: talk about in a second, also criticize her ability to
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: get elected. I think that anecdotal evidence that I've seen
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: and I've read in newspapers is that almost the driving
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: issue for most Iowa caucus goers is that they're scared
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: shitless they're going to make the wrong choice and that
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump will get reelected and they're choosing accordingly.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: And frankly, I get it. I'm there. Yeah, no, I
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: hear that too. And you're right. She's making the electability case.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders has been making the electability case for a while.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: I imagine that on Tuesday night, we'll see a lot
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: of that. One more polling thing that's non-democratic. Register related
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: before we move on to the latest skirmishes in the primary.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: Tom Steyer will be on the debate stage tomorrow night
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: after two very good polls from Fox News that have
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: him in second place in South Carolina at 15%, second
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: place to Joe Biden, and tied for third place in
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Nevada with 12%. What the hell is going on with
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: Tom Steyer, guys? That plaid tie came to play. I
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: think TV ads work. You know what I mean? Especially
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: when you have an open playing field.
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: Like certainly it is true that when you have a
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: general election and one side spending a billion and one
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: side spending a billion too, maybe it ends up being
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: a wash. I don't know.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: I'll leave it to smarter people to figure it out.
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: But when one candidate is running like a thousand points
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: of positive bio TV ads for months at a time,
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: of course people are going to learn that individual's name.
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: Maybe if they get called, they haven't thought about the
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: race much. Say, Oh yeah, that's Steyer guy. I saw
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: him on TV. I like that tie he wears every time.
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: And therefore, uh, you know, you can kind of buy
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: your way into, into some of these debates and things.
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: It's not great, but you know, look, that said, I
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: do think that this is why I was arguing last
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: week that I think Bernie's a front runner because like,
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: I think that all of this stuff shifts very quickly
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: once there is a result and people start.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: Really, really paying attention.
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: I think I'm, uh, I'm, I'm inclined to, uh, uh,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: sign on to that take after, after this week, after
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: the last week on Bernie. No, just because I was
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: thinking like, look, if Joe Biden doesn't win an Iowa,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: if he ends up in third or fourth, um, Bernie's
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: in a very good position in New Hampshire and Bernie's
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: in a good position in Nevada. And you do get
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: bounces once you start winning some of these caucus and
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: primary States. And even if Joe Biden then wins in
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, um, You know, depending on who's still in
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: the race or who has dropped out, I think losing
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: the first three races, even if you have a solid
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: wall of support among black voters, which Joe Biden does,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: it becomes much harder once you've lost three in a row. Yeah.
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: Well, I'd say Bernie's doing better than I expected him
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: to do among African-American voters polled in a Washington Post poll.
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: So I do think name ID probably has a lot
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: to do with a lot of these national polls.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: That's true. So as we've seen, when you're a frontrunner,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: it's either kill or be killed. And the Sanders campaign's
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: already throwing a few punches. In the past few days,
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: Bernie's continued to criticize Biden's vote to authorize the war
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: in Iraq, a back and forth that roped in former
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: Secretary of State John Kerry, a Biden supporter who's come
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: to his defense on this issue. That's the best surrogate
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: on that. But meanwhile, the co-chair of Bernie's campaign, Nina Turner,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: wrote an op-ed for a South Carolina newspaper this weekend
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: in which she accused Biden of repeatedly betraying African-Americans. In
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: the state, Turner criticized Biden on everything from working with
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: segregationist senators to his past position on welfare reform to
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: criminal justice. What do you guys think the strategy here
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: is behind hitting Biden specifically on Iraq and then on
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: racial and criminal justice? Is it smart?
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: Well, you know, the interesting thing about that op-ed, first
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: of all, it was just withering. I mean, just incredibly
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: tough contrast is the way it's framed is voters in
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: South Carolina have a choice. It's either Bernie or it's Biden.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: And part of what their strategy is, it's not just
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: about going after Biden. It's about pushing Elizabeth Warren aside
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: as a choice in that conversation. That basically, like, there's
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: the left candidate and then there's the moderate candidate. And
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: here's how you should adjudicate that decision, trying to kind
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: of push her out of that debate. If I were
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: on the Warren campaign, I'd be very frustrated by that.
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know that it's a stupid thing for the
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: Bernie campaign to do.
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: What do you think, Tim?
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think the Iraq conversation, it's obvious, you know,
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: it's a contrast that Bernie Sanders has highlighted previously. every
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: step along the way of this campaign. But I imagine
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: it's a bet that voters are more focused on foreign
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: policy now than they would normally be because of the
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: Iran strikes. And so, you know, I think Biden's struggle
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: to defend that vote would give me pause if I
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: were his team. And it would give me some hope
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: that it's an effective critique if I were Bernie's team.
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: I mean, I do think there's an easy answer there,
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: which is we were lied to by the Bush administration
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: about the intelligence case for WMD We were lied that
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: they would exhaust all efforts at diplomacy before going to war.
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: That said, it was a mistake to trust them. It
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: was a mistake to vote for the authorization. And I
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: feel like that would put it to bed rather than
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: trying to do this process of educating voters about what
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: you believed the authorization vote to be, how it was
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: supposed to go to the U.N. I mean, Hillary tried
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: a lot of this against Obama, and it was devastatingly
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: effective for Obama against her. trotting out John Kerry, someone
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: whom I respect enormously, but who lost the 2004 election
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: because of his Iraq war vote and his inability to
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: explain or defend it in some ways. It doesn't seem
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: like the best strategy.
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: I think the two overlapping groups of voters that Biden
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: and Bernie are both competing for are working class whites,
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: non-college educated whites in the Democratic Party, which are still,
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: you know, make up a fourth to a third of
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: the Democratic coalition, and black voters. And Very few of
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: the other candidates are doing well among either of those groups. Right.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: So it's all Biden and Bernie fighting for those. And
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: I think Bernie's strategy here is to say to those
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: groups of voters, look at our records in the past.
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: So and who do you trust more going forward? Joe
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: Biden was for NAFTA. Joe Biden voted for the Iraq war.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden voted for the bankruptcy bill. Joe Biden voted
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: for the crime bill. You know, Bernie Sanders voted for
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: the crime bill, too. But to me, some of the
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: other is not mentioning that. I'm not mentioning that op ed. Yeah, right.
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: But so he's got to peel off some of those
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: voters by asking people to look into the past. I
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: think if I was Biden, you want to keep pressing forward.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: You want to press forward here. You want to tell
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: people to look ahead and not worry about the past
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: and say, here's where I am now. I've come out
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: strongly against the Soleimani assassination. I've learned my, you know,
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: what he hasn't said, which he should, is I've learned
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: my lessons from Iraq, right? And when we were debating
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: a surge in Afghanistan, I was the one who said, no,
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: I don't want endless war. And I don't want, you know,
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: like Biden can tell a story about learning less and
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: what that, how that shapes him his views going forward.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: And he's been progressive on economic issues throughout the Obama administration,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: as progressive as most of the party is. And he
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: can talk about that. Bernie wants to bring it to
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: the past. So I think that's going to be an
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: interesting dynamic as we, I'm going to be interested to
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: see that on Tuesday night. Yeah.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's, it's, it's a really tough spot for
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: Biden because, you know, his case is an experience case.
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: He makes it all the time, my wisdom, my experience.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: And then Bernie can just go through and say, what
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: did your experience get us? Look at all these different ways,
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: like your career, we look back on it and the
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: things that make up the sum total of your experience
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: are an indictment of the system as we currently have it,
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: whether it's on trade or on foreign policy. And if
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: all of your experience was in taking positions that are
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: now anathema to the democratic base, was it worth to us?
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And I think what Biden, a smart Biden rejoinder
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: would be, yeah, well, you want to raise taxes on
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: middle-class people and you've admitted that. And I'm going to
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: go and Remember the Obama years when I was there
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: and everything was going well and you liked that? That's
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: what I'm offering. I'm offering that kind of progressivism.
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: And that was sort of his status quo anti-message from
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: the beginning was, hey, I'm more Obama.
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: Right, exactly. So the more surprising contrast from the Sanders
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: campaign came in the form of a volunteer script that
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: Politico got hold of. The script tells Sanders volunteers to
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: tell potential voters that even if they like Elizabeth Warren, quote,
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: she's bringing no new basis to the Democratic Party. and that, quote,
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: the people who support her are highly educated, more affluent
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: people who are going to show up and vote Democrat
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: no matter what. Warren said on Sunday that she was, quote,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: disappointed to hear that Bernie is sending his volunteers out
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: to trash me. Sanders and senior aides from his team
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: didn't challenge the authenticity of the script, but they said
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: they hadn't seen or approved the talking points. What's the
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: strategy here? How big of a deal is this, guys?
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: I mean, look, this isn't the harshest attack I've ever
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: seen in a campaign. It's probably not the harshest attack
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: we will read this week, but it speaks to the
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: fact that Bernie's trying to close with an electability argument.
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: And he sees Warren supporters as potential Sanders supporters.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: No surprise.
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: It also seems to me like Warren wanted this fight.
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: It seems like they have seized the moment to respond
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: to Bernie and say it was a response and that
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: she's on defense as a way of beginning to do
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: away with the detente that's existed between them for this
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: period until now. Now, if I were Warren, basically, when
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: you do something like this, when you attack or you
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: respond to an attack, you kick up coverage of the attack, right?
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: And if I were Warren, I would be a little
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: more worried about voters being educated about a belief that
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: I can't win and I'm not electable because I don't
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: bring other voters to the table than people being educated
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: on the fact that Bernie has, quote unquote, gone negative
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: on me. I think that's a less salient attack in
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: every election, always, forever. I.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: Could not agree with that more. I mean, what Warren
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: is trying to do, because I saw some of her
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: campaigns say this, is they're now trying to make this
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: argument that she is the unity candidate in the party, right?
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: That there's going to be a big segment of the
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: Democratic electorate who says they're going to be very upset
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: if Joe Biden's the nominee, and a big segment of
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: the Democratic electorate who say they're going to be upset
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: if Bernie Sanders is the nominee, and very few people
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: say they're going to be upset if Elizabeth Warren is
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: the nominee. She is the most well-liked of all the
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: candidates in the Des Moines Register poll in Iowa. She
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: has the highest favorability rating of anyone She's also got
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: a 93% approval rating among very liberal voters in Iowa,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: which means that a lot of Bernie people, most Bernie
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: people probably, who are backing Bernie in Iowa, like Warren
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: a lot. A reminder, Twitter is not real life, by
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: the way. Yeah, another one. But so you're right. I
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: think if she comes from this saying, no, no, no,
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: Bernie's electability argument is wrong. My electability argument is that
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: I can actually unite the party and Bernie can't, and
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: neither can Joe Biden. That I think is useful to
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Tommy's point. I think if we get into this whole
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: argument about who's mean to who, it's not going to
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: be as useful. It's going to make for some fucking
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: miserable tweeting, but it's not going to really move the
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: needle that much. Yeah.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: Look, we've talked about this before. I do think You know,
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: one of the dynamics that's been running throughout this primary
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: is there are I think there are a lot of
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: people whose hearts are with Elizabeth Warren, but whose minds
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: have told them that she's not electable. That you see
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: that in some of the swing state polls that have
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: showed consistently that Biden performs the best against Trump, then
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: maybe Bernie and some others and Warren still winning. But
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: but in a closer race against Donald Trump, I think
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: it's given a lot of people pause.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: What?
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: So lazy.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: She doesn't even move.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: Is something bothering you? Investigate it.
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: Anyway, I do think this unity argument is a offensive
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: electability argument as opposed to a defensive argument, which is
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: what they've sort of been stuck in for a very
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: long time.
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: What do you make of this awful CNN story from
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: this morning that when Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren met
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: about the presidential race back in 2018, Sanders reportedly told
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: her he did not believe a woman could win. The
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: story was based on the accounts of four people, Two
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: people Warren spoke directly with afterwards and two people, quote,
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: familiar with the meeting. Sanders vehemently denies it. And Warren's
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: spokesperson declined to comment altogether.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: I'll say this. This is a report of a report
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: of a report of a meeting in which there's literally
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: only one thing we know for certain about the meeting
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: is that the two people at the meeting promise not
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: to attack each other out of a sense of mutual
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: admiration and common purpose. That's the one thing we know
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: for certain.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah.
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: And it lasted until, like, this weekend.
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: I think stories like this could be a big deal
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: if and only if the Warren campaign or her supporters
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: decide to make it a big deal and accuse the
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: campaign of sexism.
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: That would be a pretty serious charge and an escalation.
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: And it's notable that Bernie is on the record saying
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: this did not happen.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Someone's going to ask Warren about this. I mean,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: maybe as we're recording, she's already answered it. But... Yeah, look,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: my advice on any story like this that's sourced to
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: people familiar with meetings and people that heard thirdhand and
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: stuff like that is just be very careful about it.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: Don't overreact to it until you get more quotes from
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: people directly involved. I do find it hard to believe
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: that if there was a meeting between Bernie and Warren
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: and he said, I don't think a woman can win
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: that it would have, they would have left on good
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: terms and then be this friendly throughout the entire primary
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: year and a half. I mean, like perhaps it's something
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: in between. Perhaps he talked about sexism that Hillary faced
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: and how, how are you going to deal with the sexism?
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: Like who knows what, what happened there, but it could
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: also be something in between, right? Like it's, it's hard
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: to believe that it's completely made up, but it's also
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: hard to believe that it's true. So it's sort of
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: in a, and I.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: Also get to that, like, for the people involved in
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: these campaigns, it is the homestretch. It has been a
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: grueling year. It's also been, I think, a tough few
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: weeks for the Elizabeth Warren campaign. I think that there
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: are frustrations to see Bernie having this sort of good
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: run between endorsements. I mean, the man had a heart
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: attack and came fucking roaring back into the lead in
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: these polls, endorsed by AOC, endorsed by the Sunrise Movement.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: I think I understand that kind of frustration. That said,
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: I do, like, It's worth remembering that these are probably
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: the two most progressive members of the United States Senate.
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: They are on the same side in virtually all of
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: the big fights we have as a country. They see
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: each other that way. And I do think there is
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: something more psychological than political in, I think, the desire
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: to not just see your candidate as being better, but
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: in seeing the other candidate as unacceptable.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we've all been there.
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: And it just feels better. You want to raise the
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: stakes because if you care, like, there's something emotional in
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: the more you care about something, the higher you want
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: the stakes to be inside of that choice. And I
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: get that, but I really do hope that the supporters
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: of both of these candidates do take a page from
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: the way that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have viewed
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: each other over the course of this very long campaign,
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: which is mostly as competitors that who on the whole
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: are in the same fight.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, the supporters are always more radicalized than the
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: staff and the staff's always more radicalized than the candidates themselves.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: And we know this, but look, I saw some people
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: on Twitter saying, well, this isn't nearly as rough as
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: the Obama versus Clinton primary in 2008. And all three
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: of us were there and I can say you are correct. Yeah.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: Although it was still pretty early.
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: I mean, look, candidates tend to stay relatively nice and
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: positive before Iowa because of this viability threshold that we
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: were talking about earlier, because the second choice, if your
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: candidate isn't viable, will have to realign. And people tend
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: to just not like the asshole candidate that's been attacking
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: everybody and less likely to go to them. So I
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: view this as more strategic than a moral choice, but
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: by everybody to be nice. It's worth noting that Biden
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: made a similar comment where he talked about how Clinton
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: was the victim of unfair sexist attacks. And he added,
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: that's not going to happen with me. I think that
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: was correctly viewed by many observers as suggesting that a
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: woman couldn't win rather than an accurate observation that Hillary
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: Clinton was dealt with shit that Donald Trump didn't because
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: of her gender.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: Right. Um, last thing before we go, uh, there was
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: news this morning that, uh, United States Senator from New Jersey,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: Cory Booker dropped out of the presidential race. Um, you
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: guys have some thoughts on, on the Booker campaign and
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: Booker's exit?
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: You know, like I have a soft spot, uh, for
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: Cory Booker because I like him personally, but in part
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: because I really like his team. Like we've all worked
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: with and know some of those people. I got to
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: know a bunch of them.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: Out in Iowa.
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: Uh, They are like a little engine that could campaign
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: who worked their asses off and did it in a positive,
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: hopeful way. And I think they really acquitted themselves. Well, like, obviously,
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: everyone wants to win, but the vast majority of candidates
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: who run for president don't win.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: It's a really tough job. So I think we'll be
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: seeing all of them in a general election campaign. It
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: also just speaks to what a weird, hard year this was.
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: You know, I mean, things were pretty static from the
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: from the get go. And I think Booker was hoping
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: that he could break through in Iowa and with this
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: relentlessly optimistic message that he had. But because of the
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: way the debates were structured and some of the other
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: national trends, he wasn't getting a look nationally that I
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: think proved more important in Iowa this year than it
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: has in past years. He wasn't going to be in
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: the debate this week. And so they are out of money,
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: out of opportunities to get earned media and just decide
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: they couldn't make it over the finish line.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: It was funny when I this sounds, again, this maybe
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: sounds dumb, but when I saw that he dropped out,
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: I actually thought, you know, in the long run, I
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: thought it might actually be good news for Cory Booker.
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: It might.
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: Because I do think, in part because of the dynamics
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: we were talking about of the way in which unity
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: has been thought of as an ideological question throughout this campaign.
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: You know, he has talked a lot about common, you know,
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: common pain, common purpose, unity, hope, love. Like he has
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: a very positive message. And I think in part because
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: maybe that's not where people's heads are right now and
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: kind of wanting to take the combat to Donald Trump.
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: But also I think in part because I do think
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: some of the tension in this primary is like you
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: can talk about unity, but you also need to talk
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: about how Democrats are going to win and how we're
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: going to win on all these really key fights. And
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: I guess one thing he never really did throughout this
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: campaign is really kind of put meat on the bone
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: in terms of what he means when he talks about
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: common pain, common purpose issues. that makes him ultimately end
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: up at policies or proposals or a way of being
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: a leader that is different from Elizabeth Warren or Bernie
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: Sanders or Joe Biden or what have you. And I
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: guess my hope for Cory Booker would be, I'd like,
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: you know, in the Senate without the pressure and limitations
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: of being a future presidential candidate, stopping you from being interesting.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: What does it look like to actually, actually try to
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: bring people together? And that's not just about, um, That's
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: not just about Democrats winning. It's about what are things
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: Democrats need to be doing differently as with respect to
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: the Republicans in Congress? What does it really mean to
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: bring people together? I'm interested in seeing someone take risks
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: in figuring out how to do that.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: First thing I thought about when I saw that he
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: dropped out, well, I also have a soft spot for
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: Cory Booker. I really liked him. I enjoyed interviewing him
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: when he came here. Adisu, his campaign manager, is one
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: of the best in the business. He has a fantastic staff.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: When he dropped out, I thought, you know, a big
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: story of this primary is I think people underestimated the
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: advantage that Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders both have because
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: of how well recognized they are by the electorate. Their
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: name ID is up in the 90s. And when you
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: have two candidates, two major candidates in a primary who
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: are both very well known, not just by the college-educated
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: voters who pay attention to the primary all the time,
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: but by the rest of the electorate, black voters, Hispanic voters,
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: non-college whites, it's really hard to get attention in a
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: crowded field. And it's especially hard to get attention when
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: you are trying to sort of be the unity candidate, right?
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: And you're trying to draw from different coalitions and assemble
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: different coalitions. And I think Kamala Harris figured that out.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: Beto O'Rourke figured that out. Cory Booker figured that out.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: And you just see a whole bunch of candidates that
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: seemed very promising. find that it was very difficult to
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: attract attention in a crowded primary with two people at
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: the top who almost everyone knows. And I think that's
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: a big problem that Cory Booker faced and some of
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: the other candidates, too. Agreed. All right. When we come back,
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: we will have Lovett's interview with Varshini Prakash of the
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: Sunrise Movement.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: Joining us on the pod, she's the executive director and
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, an organization of young people
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: working to stop climate change. Varshini Prakash, welcome.
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: Hey, John. Thanks for having me.
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: So, We're in the midst of this primary. The Green
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: New Deal has been embraced by Democrats in Congress, by
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: presidential candidates. Are you surprised at all at just how
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: big an impact Sunrise has had in just two years
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: of existence?
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm immensely proud of it. And I think
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: it's what we set out to do from the beginning.
• 49:54
  Speaker 4: You know, two years ago, we were just a cohort
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: of young people who were frustrated at our politicians' inability
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: to take action on the most pressing issues of our time.
• 50:05
  Speaker 4: And we were angry that an entire generation of politicians
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: had forsaken young people and forsaken our futures. And so,
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: you know, over the last two years, we have been
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: able to push every major presidential candidate to release climate plans.
• 50:21
  Speaker 4: We have pushed climate change through the Green New Deal
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: to be at the forefront of our politics. We have
• 50:28
  Speaker 4: engaged tens of thousands of young people and engaged them
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: politically for the first time in their lives and giving
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: them the tools to really manifest the reality that they
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: want in this country. And so, you know, if you
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: asked me, like, a few years ago whether I thought
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: this was a possibility, I would have said yes. But
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: I think it feels completely different from the vantage point
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: that I'm at right now, having accomplished it all.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: So let's turn to the endorsement. Sunrise announced their endorsement
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: of Bernie Sanders. You know, when... We have a number
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: of candidates who have embraced the Green New Deal. Why
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: endorse Bernie over, say, Warren or some.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: Of the other candidates?
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: Well, we ultimately put it to a vote to our membership.
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: And over the course of six weeks, we went through
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: a process of educating our members on the climate plans
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: of candidates. We went through a discussion period and then
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: ultimately supported over 3,000 members to vote in an online process.
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: And those young people voted positively. resoundingly, overwhelmingly, over 80%
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: of them voted to support Bernie Sanders for president of
• 51:32
  Speaker 4: the United States. And I think ultimately the reasons why
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: is because he has been one of the most consistent
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: voices in support of climate action for his entire career.
• 51:44
  Speaker 4: I think we've also seen him be a true movement
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: and people's candidate. It's right there in his campaign slogan, right?
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: Not me, us. This is about building democracy. not just
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: relying on political saviors or individuals, but actually building a
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: movement of millions of people that can work in concert
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: with sympathetic politicians to pass bold and transformative legislation. And
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: I think ultimately when we think about a crisis like
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: the climate crisis, which requires such transformative social and economic change,
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: we need a politician that understands the state, that understands
• 52:22
  Speaker 4: the severity and understands the need, the kind of action
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: that we need in this moment, not just, you know,
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: a tax here or an incentive there.
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: So I was looking at the Sunrise scorecard and, you know,
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: you have you do have Bernie Sanders in front, you know,
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: just behind him is Elizabeth Warren and then far behind
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: both you had Joe Biden. But one of the key
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: sections in the scorecard is plan to win, which is
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: basically who you view as being prepared to implement the
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: Green New Deal through Congress, through the powers of the
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: presidency to actually kind of get to get it done.
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: And on that score, Warren and Sanders were tied, which
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: took to me, which to me seemed like a statement
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: that said, you know, Sunrise looks at Warren and it
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: looks at Bernie and whatever their differences on the campaign trail,
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: we see them as equally capable of of implementing the
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: Green New Deal. Do you agree with that?
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: Totally.
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think Elizabeth Warren has proven herself to
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: be a formidable candidate. She has put forward tons of
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: really creative, thoughtful policy on the campaign trail. She has
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: been extremely clear-sighted about who is responsible for putting us
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: in the crisis that we are in. And I think
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: she would be a tremendous president if elected as well.
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: I think the reason why Bernie Sanders ended up resonating
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: with young voters who are part of Sunrise is precisely
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: because Bernie Sanders is— it wasn't just an endorsement of Bernie Sanders,
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: the candidate. It was an endorsement of Bernie Sanders and
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: the movement that he is building, ultimately the political revolution
• 53:58
  Speaker 4: that he is trying to bring about.
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: So there was this piece by Emma Maris in The Times.
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: It was called How to Stop Freaking Out and Tackle
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: Climate Change. Yes, I love it. It was really interesting
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: because I think it was trying to address the feeling
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: of kind of existential dread, the hopelessness that people may
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: feel in talking about this issue. And I was just
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: wondering what Sunrise does to combat the feeling that this
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: problem is so big that It's so urgent. We're facing
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: administration that is not just not doing enough, but actively
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: rolling back what environmental protections we do have. So how
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: do you combat that sense of kind of hopelessness?
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this is a tremendously important question. We
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: are seeing depression rates and suicide rates amongst young people skyrocket.
• 54:54
  Speaker 4: It's rampant in the communities that I work and engage
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: with on the day to day. And I think fundamentally
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: what we want to do is speak to the fear,
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: to speak to the anger that young people are feeling
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: in this moment, and to be able to pair that
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: with a sense of hope and a sense of optimism
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: that when we actually come together, we can achieve things
• 55:17
  Speaker 4: that we thought were impossible in the past. And so
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: for us at Sunrise, a way that we try to
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: do that is by giving people clear and direct ways
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: that they can actually participate in the movement. And so,
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: for example, any person anywhere across the country can start
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: a Sunrise chapter or a local hub. And there are
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: over 315 of these chapters across the country in almost
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: every single state. And when you're a part of a
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: local hub, you receive training, you receive coaching, you receive
• 55:49
  Speaker 4: a community in which to act And you can take
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: a lot of, you can work together in that community
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: to achieve what are the goals of the movement are
• 56:00
  Speaker 4: at that time. So whether that's pressuring Congress people to
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: support a Green New Deal, whether it is organizing a
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: local climate strike in your community, whatever it might be,
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: we're trying to give people the tools so that they
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: don't have to wait to take action. They don't have
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: to wait, ask permission to take action. They have the
• 56:17
  Speaker 4: solutions at their fingertips. And so over the next, year, actually,
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: we are attempting to not just engage electorally and work
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: to defeat Trump and register tens of thousands of youth voters,
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: but we're also working to engage big time in building
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: out our base of young people to be millions and
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: millions of people strong. And we're hoping by this time
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: next year, we will have the capacity to get 10
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: million people out in the streets. We want to train 50,000
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: new activists by the end of 2020 alone. And we
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: want to double or triple the number of chapters that
• 56:54
  Speaker 4: we have and the number of people who feel emboldened
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: to take action in this moment.
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: And is the goal to help those people deploy in
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: the 2020 election itself?
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: Absolutely. I think it's both during the election and beyond.
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: So we're going to be actively involved in the 2020 election,
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: but we don't see November 3rd of 2020 as a
• 57:14
  Speaker 4: deadline or a finish line. We see that as just
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: the beginning. To us, we need to be building the
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: kind of grassroots power that can actually build external pressure
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: when we have a sympathetic president in office. So over
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: the next nine months before the election, we will be
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: working to register tens of thousands of youth voters and
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: turn them out for Green New Deal champions at the
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: congressional level and at the presidential level. And at the
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: same time, we will be simultaneously training those leaders, not
• 57:46
  Speaker 4: just in electoral organizing, but how to do the moral
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: protest that has really catapulted Sunrise and the Green New
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: Deal into the national discourse. We're going to be training
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: young people in how to do like graphic organizing skills
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: on the ground so they can grow their bases and
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: their communities of power where they live. And so we
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: don't want, we understand that this is going to be,
• 58:10
  Speaker 4: you know, the climate crisis is a huge project to tackle.
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: It's going to take a decade or more of really inventive,
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: active policymaking to even make a dent in it. And
• 58:21
  Speaker 4: we know that this election is critical to our survival
• 58:26
  Speaker 4: and it isn't the end point. We've got to continue
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: to put pressure on politicians beyond November 2020.
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: So, you know, let's talk about 2020. You know, last week,
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: the Trump administration, announced plans to basically gut the National
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: Environmental Policy Act. That would mean no longer even requiring
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: climate change to be taken into account when looking at
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: projects like power plants and new pipelines. And that's the
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: latest in a series of actions, big and small, that
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: the administration has taken on behalf of fossil fuel companies,
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: other interests. You know, there are big differences amongst Democrats,
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: even in this primary. But those distinctions pale in comparison
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: to the sort of stark choice in November, regardless.
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: Of who the nominee will be.
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: You know, we're about to enter the most heated part
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: of the primary. Are you worried at all about the
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: left coming together to defeat Trump once the primary is done,
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: given that most people who vote in this primary, just
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: because of how many candidates there are, are likely not
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: to be voting for who the nominee is going to be?
• 59:22
  Speaker 4: Look, ultimately, we have to oust Trump from office. There
• 59:27
  Speaker 4: is no negotiating the crazies. And he is pushing us
• 59:31
  Speaker 4: closer than ever to war. He obviously is ill-fit for
• 59:36
  Speaker 4: the position that he holds, and we have to kick
• 59:38
  Speaker 4: him out. And we have chosen— I can speak for Sunrise.
• 59:41
  Speaker 4: I can't speak for the entire left. But I think,
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: you know, as part of Sunrise Movement, we have elected
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: Bernie Sanders as our president of choice. But— I think fundamentally,
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: even if Bernie Sanders does not win the nomination in
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: the primary, we will go to bat and we will
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 4: fight extremely hard for whoever the Democratic nominee is, because
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: it is of essence that we elect somebody who prioritizes
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: the climate crisis into the Oval Office come November.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: You know, look, obviously, you know, we know that I
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: think young people are more behind Bernie Sanders than they
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: are Joe Biden, right? Like, we all know that. We
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: all know that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and some
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: of the other candidates have attracted even more enthusiastic support
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: than someone like Joe Biden. But sometimes I wonder if
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden becomes the nominee of the Democratic Party, all
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: of a sudden it will be incumbent on podcasts like
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: the ones we make over here, organizations like Sunrise. It'll
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: be about trying to get a bunch of people to
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: come out and vote for Joe Biden, even though it
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: wasn't their first choice. even though they might not think
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: he's far left enough, because honestly, on a lot of issues,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: he isn't. Do you do you think about that at all?
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: About like, man, if this party picks Joe Biden, I'm
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: going to have to work my ass off to get
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: people to get behind him. And it'd be much easier
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: if it were somebody like Bernie. But you know what?
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: If it is Biden, like I'm going to fucking do it.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: I'm going to just get out there and get people
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: to the polls no matter what, even if I'm pissed.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, that's exactly what we intend to do.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 4: And I know we're going to do it because we've
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: done it before. There was an election in Michigan where
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 4: we endorsed Abdul El-Sayed and Gresham Whitmer ended up winning
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: the primary. And so we turned all of our electoral
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 4: forces in Michigan towards campaigning and electing her. So, you know,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 4: I think we are trying to keep our.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: Eyes on the prize.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 4: And it's part of the reason why one of our
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: principles is no permanent friends, no permanent enemies. Right now,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: Joe Biden is probably one of my last choices in.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: Terms of.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: Major candidates for the Democratic primary. But, you know, Biden
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: versus Trump, it's a no brainer that we have to
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: elect Joe Biden to office. So, you know, I'm right
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: there with you. And I think we as leaders of
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: social movements and progressives have to be making the case
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 4: also to people for why that's so important.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: One last question.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: What can people do to kind of support Sunrise to
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: get involved?
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 4: Oh, my God. Join the movement. We're at sunrisemovement.org. And
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: you can find us on all social platforms at SunriseMVMP.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: We encourage you to get involved at the very least
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: if it's just, getting on our email list to keep
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: up to date. That's fantastic. But also we are getting
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: into gear for the rest of this year and would
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: heavily encourage people to sign up to host a launch
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: party for our 2020 strategy or sign up to knock
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: doors with us. We have a lot going right now.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: Varshini Prakash, thanks for joining.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 4: Thank you.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: All right. Thanks to Varshini Prakash for joining us today.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: And we will all talk to you. We'll see you
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: Tuesday night during the debate in our group thread. And
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: we will have our pod Wednesday morning. Bye, guys. Bye. Bye.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: Pod Save America is a product of Crooked Media. The
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: senior producer is Michael Martinez. Our assistant producer is Jordan Waller.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: It's mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin is
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: our sound engineer. Thanks to Carolyn Reston, Tanya Sominator, and
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: Katie Long for production support, and to our digital team,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: Elijah Cohn, Narmel Cohnian, Yael Freed, and Milo Kim, who
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: film and upload these episodes as a video every week.