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RBC Heritage PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear the lift up.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What's up everyone? Tyler Tamberline here aka Totag and Tambo
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: back for another edition of Leverage Lane here on the
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: ship at Nation YouTube station. We got the RBC Heritage
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: coming up. We're gonna break down all things teaching you
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: how to play, not just who to play. We'll talk
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: through the chalk build, the ownership, We'll talk about some
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: of the ways to leverage the chalk build. We'll get
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: to our lane at the end one and done the
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: betting segment. We also do little Q and a up
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: front you know, some some topic some things like that,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: and have a bit of a master's recap. We are
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: going to talk about Scottie getting a bit of a
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: price drop here and then a no cut event. How
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: it affects that. We're going to talk about callin Morikawa,
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: Beware of the injured golf. Are our men? Alex Blickley
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: here with me as usually he had the call on
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: that last week and he'll bring you some very interesting
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: points when it comes to callin Mori Kawa this week
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: out there at Hilton Head. But thank you everybody for watching.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: We appreciate you. Make sure to smash that thumbs up
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: on the way in. If you're on mobile and you
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: got the chat screen up, just hit the little X,
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: hit the thumbs up, go right back into the chat
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: and you can join us to engage. If you're watching
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: this after, you could leave a comment regarding anything you
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: want us to talk about in the future. But on
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: that note, and last thing quickly, Alex, whoere I bring
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: you in? My man?
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: Is?
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: I will say no show next week for the Dessert Classics,
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: So I'm away family vacation. I always plan my vacations
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: around the worst golf event of the season in my opinion,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: at least from my fantasy perspective and playing these things.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: So I'm excited to get away with the family. But Alex,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: I'll bring you in man. One of Master's we just
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: have my friend and excited to talk about RBC heritage
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: with you as well.
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it wasn't It wasn't last year's Masters,
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: but what could have been like lst year's Masters?
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: It was?
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: It was another really fun one. I think there there
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: are some interesting conversations. I don't know if you want
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: to have them here on this show, but like just
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: about how Augusta kind of threw us all a curveball
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: and it made the made the course a lot softer
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: than we expected.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: And man, why wasn't that talked about more? By the way,
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: and I want to have all kinds of conversations and
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: that was pretty interesting. And what's funny is Scotty didn't
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: say nothing until he did when he lost by one broke,
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: and then he was like, I can't. The best is
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: when you know a guy like can't not say something.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: He's so humble, but he he had to say it.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: He's like, I just want to let you know this
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: is what happened. And he's like, okay, he told us.
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah, And and that to me, like.
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: I've seen I've seen kind of mixed reviews about where
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: you know, I've seen people taking the stance of defending
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: Augusta and pointing to the fact like one very cool thing,
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: and I will admit that it's very cool. Is like
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: the the winning score Augusta is usually in this like
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: ten to twelve under range. They they clearly have this
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: idea of like what is the optimal range that's going
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: to produce the most drama where you have guys who
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: are playing well and making a fair amount of birdies
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: and you know, shooting really good scores, but then you
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: also have it difficult enough that you're still seeing plenty
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: of bogies around the golf course, You're still seeing doubles
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: and triples, and in how Tongu's case tends, so you know,
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: they have this like really nice balance in that regard.
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: The problem is you can't have it both ways.
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: You can't have that be what you're going for and
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: trying to get that score and also letting the media
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: hype up your event all a week long by talking
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: about how firm and fast and difficult the course is
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: going to get and then letting that happen to the
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: Thursday afternoon wave and then watering the hell out of
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: the golf course. Either you're controlling the conditions throughout the week,
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: maintaining the integrity of the course so that it's it's
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: playing the same for everybody, or you're letting mother and
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: nature just like run its core and letting whatever happens happens,
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: and then if the course like really does get out
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: of control, like maybe maybe they looked at Thursday, they said, Okay,
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: we don't want it. We don't want it to get
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: any more difficult than it got Thursday afternoon, because any
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: more difficult would be borderline unfair. Okay, then water the
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: course a little bit overnight so you get a repeat
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: of the conditions the next day, and nothing more not
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: make it significantly easier and more receptive for all three
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: days moving on. I just thought that was really like
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: uncharacteristically non golf purist, if you will, of Augusta usually
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: usually like it's the right, it's the it's the mecca
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: of golf. It's it's where everything about golf is in
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: its purest form, and in that way, like they totally
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: smashed that and then you know it, just as Scottie said, Like,
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: I think Scotty did a good job of not talking
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: before that, because the player in him is just saying, like,
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: I'm not making any excuses for myself. I all I
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: can do is control what I can and go play.
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: But un once the tournament's over, he doesn't need that
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: mindset anymore. Now he can just like say what he's
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: actually been feeling all week, which is I got screwed
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: on Thursday and everybody knows.
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And by the way too, Rory tried to give
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: him a shot at a playoff there on eighteen that
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: shot when they brought the video out yesterday, because it
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: was tough on the CBS coverage to kind of figure
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: that out to just speaking of that of Rory down
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: the stretch, that was pretty pretty crazy as well. I mean,
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: I gotta the chat real quick, I said for fantasy purposes.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: By the way, Andy, going to any PG event is awesome.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: I've been to plenty of them, and I think they're
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: all incredible. I would love to be there, you know,
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: I'm a fan of New Orleans. I think that's a
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: good spot to be. I'm saying it's really nothing to
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: do with that. It's just not great. There's not a
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: lot of angles or edges to it from fantasy. Like
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: when it first came out, there was like that you
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: could play like different price points and remember like people
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: are like you play the cheaper guy because this that
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: was like an edge, and then eventually just made them
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: all the same price and there's no real angle of opportunity.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: We're just betting and gambling to get some action down.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: So I'm all for that, and if I was there,
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: it'd be phenomenal. But I'll be in Dominican Republic, so
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: I'll be in pretty good weather myself and enjoying it
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: with some family time. But yeah, agree with you on
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: being at those events. What else on the Masters, I
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: guess one of the things is almost like a WWE
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: event if they like planned it, Like it's like gonna
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: go into the room tonight and decide, like Thursday night,
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: we probably don't need to do this, but let's do it.
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: Let's tighten this Oh, Rory's up by six now, all right,
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: we gotta tighten this shit up quick and give them
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: an opportunity to come back on a different route. Like
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying they do that because it's not true,
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: but noting it, it's.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: Like it almost seemed to me, it almost seemed to
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: me like they were trying to let Rory go top
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: last year by not just defending his title, but by
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: defending his title and setting a new scoring record so
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: that a live guy no longer holds the scoring record,
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: even though most people view it with an aster since
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: DJ's twenty under I think was twenty came in the
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: November Masters, but but yeah, it was. It was just weird,
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: and I think like it's probably unlikely that they that
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: they did this with the specific goal in mind of
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: getting Rory another win. But they also need to have
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: like the self awareness to realize that's what everyone's gonna think.
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: When we wandered the ship out of this golf course
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: and all of a sudden the conditions are so much
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: easier than they were yesterday.
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: It was, like I said, it was just really odd.
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: It was.
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: It was a curveball, and I both from a fan perspective,
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: I really didn't like it because I like, it's so
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: compelling to see how difficult the course can get. And
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: I think an important point there is if if Augusta
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: never does anything to try and control the golf course,
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: you're going to get plenty of years where the course
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: is soft and receptive and you're getting those, you know,
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: really scorable conditions, but you're you're going to get very
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: few opportunities to make the course as firm and fast
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: as it could have been this week. And I think
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: you got to take that opportunity when you get it.
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: So that was really concerning. And then from a from
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: a betting standpoint, like I lost a bunch of money
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: on underdog this week because I kept making bets that said,
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a little bit tougher tomorrow.
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: I don't think we're going to see what we saw yesterday.
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: And they just kept doing it and that was really
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: really annoying on my wallet as well.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: Last quick note, shout at you on the Henley call.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: By the way, getting all the way up the board
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: left to definitely left a couple out there down the street.
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: I know there's variant who makes some miss some et cetera.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: But he really did his job trying to get up
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: there too. But the other thing, man, I you know
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: last week, Rory's a different golfer. Now, like there's no
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: way he blows this, and in the end he didn't.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: I get it, But like it was not it was
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: over very quickly on Saturday, that narrative of like there's
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: no way this is gonna be a runaway, the Vince
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: Carter Jiff was out, the up ten ten plus blowout
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: is incoming, like all this it was gone like that,
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: like faster than you can imagine. Yes, an awesome resiliency
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: to bounce back and whatnot, But I'm just saying it's
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: like when people are thinking a golf tournament is over,
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: especially at that course, it's the literal saying. For years now,
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: before I'm born has been like this tournament doesn't start
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: till the back nine on Sunday. It's like that here
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: it was again, look at these guys going low, like
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: Hatton's getting into the mix, Scheffler's coming back, Henley's rolling,
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: and all those guys were in the mix where Rory
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: wasn't doing too much. So just to keep that in mind,
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, Cam Young, it was his for the taking
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: as well to actually beat Rory for the Rory's gonna
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: blow this thing out and win by a million type
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: thing too. So yeah, it's always a fun golf tournament.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: I had a great week. I will say, shut up
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: to everybody. I gotta just give some supports. I'm only
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: doing one show a week now, so I'll say I
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: do appreciate everybody that reached out. Had the nice Milliemaker
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: sweat on Sunday up top there, it's like you never want.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: Somebody asked me, is like, do you really think you're
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: gonna win?
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: No?
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, like I had like maybe a three percent I
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: think cut sweat set of four percent. I probably had
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: half that. It's like, it's it's not really about that,
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: it's if you're fortunate enough and I'm very grateful for
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: all the people that support and look out for me.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: And you'll want to say, like, do this and they're
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: cheering for me, that that means a lot. But like
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: when people are messaging go over and over, it's actually
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: better to just embrace it and say, hey, here's where
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: I'm at. Let's hope for a day. All we can
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: do is observe. That's my message to you guys on
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: anything like we get negative thoughts around, like oh that
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: you can only really get a negative thought if you
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: were already putting the money in your bank account. You
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: cannot put the money in your bank account until it
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: actually closes and the tournament ends, So all you can
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: do is watch the golf observe. Your guys could suck
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: early and bounce back late when it matters. Your guys
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: could start fast and then they suck at the end
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: when you need it, when you think you're gonna get
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: it again and you're even closer to it, but it's
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: never yours until the tournament's over. And what a wild
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: turn of event. Shout out by the way to Nelson
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: over at cut Sweat speaking of that getting the job
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: done and shipping the Millie maker. His was funny too.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: He posted like day one he I think it was
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: day two he was crushing it. Day three he's like,
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: there goes that equity. Day four bounces back and wins it.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: So it's like that anything can happen. But I'll tell you, Alex,
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: my sweat because people asked me about this is only
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: form to really bring it out. So I was winning
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: the two hundred and fifty dollars buy in tournament on
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: fan duel. After three rounds two hundred grand, I was
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: up twenty points. By the way, spoiler alert, it finished
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: like forty six or sixty fourth or something. One of
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: those two numbers is bad. Did you things? What's that?
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: Did you have Lowry?
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: No?
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: But I had Day and I had who's the other?
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: It was Day and somebody else that hurt me. And
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: then like the other guys just didn't do enough. It
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: had Rory Young, Day Nap someone and someone I can't
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: remember who the other two were. But anyway, it wasn't Henley,
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: it wasn't Hatt, and it wasn't any of those guys
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: climbing up the board, wrote Reez wrote Rose. Not all
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: of them did good, but it wasn't Rose all those
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: guys weren't in there, so that was kind of what
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: I was fading. And then on the DraftKings line up,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: it had four out of the sixth the same and
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: Kiddy Yama was what I needed early and he had
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: opportunities to just burn them all. So I was like,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: it's already not looking good. But then I still had
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: Burns and Henley and Nap and guys that were scoring
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: a little bit with Young and Rory, so I was like,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: oh man, maybe this can still do damage. It did not.
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: You're never feeling good about the he But then the
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: craziest thing of all is Round four Showdown with two
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: hundred k up top. It's I've got a line up
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: with Scheffler and Hatton and it had McNeely, McCarty, like Keegan,
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: all the guys that crushed in the morning.
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: And they went they went nuts, He went nuts.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: I had like one hundred and forty points just from
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: those three or something. So anyway, long story short, it's
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: like my daughter who's seven, has no clue about like
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: sweating it for real, like for what the money is?
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: I keep her out of that side of it, but
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: like she's like, weren't we just cheering for Rory as
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: I'm going nuts for Scotty, and I'm like, we are now, honey,
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: we're now cheering for Scotty Scheffler. She's like, all right,
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: go Scotty. Then she's a true team player. But I
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: was like, man, we got to get this job done.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: And Rose made a very crazy bogie on seventeen from
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: like a two foot three foot miss and I was like,
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: oh my god. It bumped me in the first for
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: two hundred grand. The Rory and Young lineups were behind me.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: It was a ship a nation member. Shut up the light.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: You ended up getting it at the end for two
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: hundred K. Rose needed to bogie or worse on eighteen
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: and he made par He chipped it. He had a
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: green side, chipped it up and tapped it in and
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: that moved us back because he got the points back
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: from the par I lost by point six. But then
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: when I didn't realize when I got the second and
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: think like there was that ah, like I got this moment.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: It's like, damn, there's actually one Rory lineup that is
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: close to me that if he makes a birdie on eighteen,
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: I know it's not likely, but what a shift you
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: up one hundred K extra to two hundred down one
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: hundred K to one hundred K, and then it's like
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: the sixty k drop to forty K. If Rory makes
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: the birdie he goes in the trees, I'm like, ah,
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: thank goodness. And then he hits that second shot and
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: I'm like, oh man, you gotta be kidding me here,
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: and and so like again, I don't think it was
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: gonna go win, but just if anything happens, it reminded
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: me like the year that him in Marikawa made the
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: bunker shots on eighteen. I was like, imagine that gets
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: you for like sixty K and there's no real way
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: to do anything about it, so fun sweat. Nonetheless, it was,
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: you know, just wildest ways to get to the six
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: figure plus that I didn't expect at all.
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the first thing that comes to mind
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: for me is like the guy asking you, did you
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: really think you were gonna win? Like, I understand having
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: a four percent chance or anything close to that. To
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: win a million dollars in the last day, that's orders
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: and orders of magnitude above where you were at the
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: start of the week. That's absolutely worth getting it.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: Most people, it's like one to twenty shot here that
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: we're going up to to have a chance to win
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: a million dollars, Like do you expect it? No, and
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: you never should. But it is crazy when people are
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: like you really posted that, or the people by the
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: way that are like your your business partner who he
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: jinksed you because he congratulated you and posted the screenshot.
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: Is like if you you think one of my best
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: friends and business partners don't know me well enough to
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: know I literally don't give a shit about a jinx
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: a mush enough that we have no control over what
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: those golfers do. All we can do is build good
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: You sound process like we're about to talk about on
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: this show for this week upcoming. But I think that's
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: important to note, is this, you know, a life lesson
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: too is just beca I always tell people, like the
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: motivating factors and like the fact that you put yourself
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: in those positions. That's all you can do. Our job
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: is done Thursday morning at Locke. We have no control
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: after that. So that's just my thoughts.
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: A lot of the time, when when you and I
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: have like a topic of mine to talk about, like
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: we did satellites the one time for example, we've talked beforehand.
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: I don't want to totally just put you on the
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: spot here, but I think we actually just like organically
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: came across a really good topic to talk through strategy
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: wise that I know I have personally struggled with at times.
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: I know, basically like every subscriber of mine who has
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: ever had a sweat has considered or alluded to this
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: concept for around four. Did you let your main slate
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: sweats affect your round four showdown build at all? In
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: the sense that, like, let's say you needed Cam and Rory.
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: Are you then in showdown saying okay, well I might
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: as well, you know, hedge, where if one of those
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: guys fails, now I'll at least, you know, have the
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: advantage in showdown if I if I fade them. Things
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: of that nature. So, like, I don't want to use
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: the word hedge because it's so difficult to quote unquote
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: hedge a DFS line up, because you need so many
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: things to go right, and you don't just need like
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: your lineup to do well to make up for it
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: in round four.
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: You need to do extremely well.
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: So even if you get like one thing really really right,
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: you still need everyone else to get there, But did
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: your sweats affect your.
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: Round four lineup in any way?
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: So I've talked about this a ton in the past,
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: and I think, actually it's a really good topic because
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: round four, I also think is at least slightly different
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: than the other stuff because obviously things are percolating. Now.
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: If you are doing what you're calling and I get
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: what you're saying one hundred perconds, people called it a hedge.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: It's like, that's what I'm trying to say to be
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: for years now is like I think it's terrible move
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: in like round two, if you truly have an advantage
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: and you think that's the advantage. Like what people do
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: is they go, Okay, I got Scotti Scheffler fifty percent
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: in main slate, so I'll fade him in round two
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: because if Scotty goes off in round two, that means
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: my classic lineups are good. Well does it? You have
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: five more golfers in those lineups. So not only are
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: you dead in showdown because he went off and you
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: faded him, but you all your Scotty lineups, not all
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: of them, but just saying it could happen, they might
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: all be five or six. Now, so you just lost
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: money twice, you're dead going into the weekend, and you
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: made a bad decision. So you might take that mentality
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: and structure into round three and continue playing bad money
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: or just not putting the effort in. I think the
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: difference in round four and I didn't like fully hedgerin.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: I had a ton of cam Young in both places.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: I had rory versions of the lineups I like. The
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: one spot though that I did ignore was Kittyama because
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: it was like there was already other value plays down there.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: That's how I got to Keegan more often. That's the
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: other things like that Nick Taylor who didn't fully come through,
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: But it was like Kittiyama would have been a game
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: change for that lineup, where I then kind of again
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: doesn't mean it would have went right, but it's like, also,
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: is Kiddyama really gonna crush in round four? He's way
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: down the board. It's not like he's needed or something
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: like that. So it's like, if I could or did
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: land near that, I was definitely not going to Kidiyama.
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: But all the other lineups were built accordingly with the
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: idea of like certain situation. Now, the Scotty lineup that
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: happened to come together was predicated on like pure structure,
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: like roster construction of what my thought process was for
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: Sunday is it's hard to win a Master's. It might
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: finally bake out. They kind of want, you know, if
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: they want this thing to come down to the end.
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: It's like it's it's Cam Young and it's Rory, Like
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: you're both very capable having great weeks, but it might
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: not come through. Why not just take the best golfer
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: in the world, Scotty Scheffler, whether you believe he is
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: not or has been lately or not, fine, but whatever,
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: play him and play ball strikers. If you look at
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: the Master's board on Sunday, it's like Moricau, Hatton, Keegan, Bradley, Henley,
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: It's like all the best because they're just firing at
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: the pins. A guy like Hatton, who was in that lineup,
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: It's like, is he gonna blow up a lot of
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: the time, Yes, but if he doesn't, it can look
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: like that and that's what you're playing for. So that
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: one was built around that, and I structured my lineups
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: really around that thought. But I do build in like
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: different versions as well. And again they're all with like
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: heavy thought process that goes into them. But it's like, okay,
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: if if more people have Read and Rose together and
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: I don't have them in either of my big lineups,
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely gonna see if there's some lineups that I
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: like that work with those two, and then close it
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: out with whoever I got or need. Whatever. My thoughts
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: are for Sunday, though, are my very prevalent thoughts into
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: my roster construction. And I think when people try and
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: get cute, even if they don't mean to, to your
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: point of like even calling it a hedge, and that's
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: why you were careful to say it that way, because
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: you can't really hedge that you could hedge stuff late.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: I've been in a spot where it's like you have
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: Nick what was the year? I forget? It was like
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: Nick Taylor and Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff and Nick
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: Taylor's the underdog and it's like for fifty thousand dollars
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: or whatever, and I put like, I think it was
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: like five grand down for the flip, just to get
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: that extra little bit because it's like forty or ten.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: I'm like, okay, I'll do that, But that's like a
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: situation where it's just like do I need to know?
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: It just makes you feel a little bit better and
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: like the what ifs and all that. But that's where
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: you can truly hedge because they're in a playoff and
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: you know what, that's your lineup exactly. In this stuff,
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: when people try and do it, I don't see any
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: opportunity beyond like some edge stuff, not not really the
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: old like meaning like around the like it's very rough edge.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: It's like gray area, like you're not really able to
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: hedge it that much. In my opinion, with needing everything
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: to go your way.
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: I liked the points you made about Read and Rose,
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: where like you're looking for combinations that you don't have
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: that maybe you can you can get access to that
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: would help you there. And the other thing I think
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: you kind of alluded to that that I have kind
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: of settled on as one of my main thoughts in
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: this kind of question if you will, which is if
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: I have a guy who's a low owned separator in
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: my main slate lineup and is chalky in the in showdown,
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: like that's a guy that I definitely want to avoid
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: because he's going to be so much more beneficial if
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: he plays well in my main Slate lineup, then he
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: would be in Showdown. So I like, there's just no
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: reason for me to go double down in Showdown when
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: he's literally going to do less for me if he
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: plays well, And then the flip side is also true,
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: like if he plays poorly, yes, he obviously hurts my
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: main Slight lineup, but then because he's Chalky and Showdown,
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: he actually really helps me that he played poorly there,
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: so it just kind of works in both directions that
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: there you don't want to overlap, and then the reverse
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: is also true, like let's say you know, I have
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: a thirty percent you know, Xander Schoffley in mainslat or something,
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: but now he's the contrarian pivot to Rory and Cam
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: Young on Showdown. That's the kind of guy that Okay,
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: now I will go play him because if he does
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: play well, yeah, he's helping my main Slight lineup potentially
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: catch up to the Cam or the Rory lineups. But
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: also he would then be an actual separator in Showdown.
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: So that's when I'm more likely to kind of double
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: down on a player. And so I think that's probably
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: the best way to think get through. It's it's less
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: about who you have and what you need, and it's
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: more about if they play well, if they play poorly,
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: how do they affect the two different lineups given the
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: different ownerships across the contests.
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: I love all that we said. I'm glad we talked
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: through that too. I know, like a lot of people
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: like I'll get to the RBC heritage and the comments coming,
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: I don't really care, first of all. Second, well, it's
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: like the other thing is like it's such an important game.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I know so many people again being in the Ship
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: Nation discord, I know you're in your own over at FTN.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: The same thing. It's like when people don't have a
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: good lineup over the weekend, whether they play one lineup
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: or one hundred and fifty, if they really have nothing
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: on the go, they are very interested in getting involved
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: in round four. But it's a place people struggle a
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: lot because of the position placement points, because of like
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: how many guys are too many up the board and
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: all those different things. So I'm glad we at least
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: chat it through it a little bit more. I know
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: you cover more in your discord. I've got more over
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: at Ship Nation with the mastermind project things like that.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: But if yeah, I like that topic, let's try and
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: get to RBC in the next eight to ten minutes.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: We do have to talk about Scotty and more cal
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: I want to hit a couple questions quick and let's
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: just rapid fire them. This is for you. I'll give
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: my two cents on it first of all. But I mean, one,
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: unless you're building like cash game lineups these days, the
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: ownership is typically pretty spread out. So even if you
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: have like a forty thirty ownership in it's like it's rare.
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: But let's you had a forty and a thirty percent guy,
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: you're seventy. It's gonna be mostly like fifteen percenters after that.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: For another set, I mean, unless you're building that type
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: of lineup, you're in rough shape. But otherwise you're mostly
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: gonna be at an under one hundred. But I don't
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: like to do this. I just build with the optimizer
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: and the one I'm using will actually account for this
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: with sabersim, but just noting it. I don't want to
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: say like a way where I can rule myself out
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: personally where it's like it has to be eighty, because
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: what if it's like a thirty twenty five and then
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: a bunch of guys that are like eight percent or
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: nine percent of something that are needed. And it's like
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: you just you can get there in different ways. I
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: like to focus on the roster construction and then separators
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: within the lineup. I think you've talked about it in
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: the past, but if you want to add to that one.
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think using total ownership summing ownership, I think
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: is a really really, really bad way to do things.
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: And it made sense, like you know, five years ago
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: when we were just kind of first understanding the concept
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: of ownership and things of that nature on a on
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: a like a full industry wide level, but it does
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: a really bad job of creating like the balance of
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: low owned separators and high probability plays that we're always
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: striving for. You might luck into it by finding a
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: range like that where okay, you have some chalk and
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: you have some separators, but you also can end up
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: building lineups where like everyone in the lineup is I
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: don't know, fifteen percent owned or something like that, and
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: now you don't have the really high probability plays or
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: the low owned separators. And so it's more about just
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: making sure your lineup has both. And just like the
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: optimizer you use, we, our optimizer at FtM Fantasy does
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: the same thing like we. There are actually bracketed ownership
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: rules where you can set it where it's like I
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: want X amount of guys under five percent or x
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: amount under ten percent, and you know, no more than
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: why amount over fifteen percent or eighteen percent, whatever the
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: whatever the numbers that they that you choose are. And
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: so it's much better to do it that way. And
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: I like when I do, with the rare times that
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: I actually do use an optimizer and play MME, I
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: make the total ownership gap as wide as possible because
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: I don't want that influencing anything at all.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: And you did say it best also there that the
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: old way when people did this, what was actually happening
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: is the current standpoint just naturally like they didn't. They
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: were looking at it as like, oh, I got a
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: low total ownership, But what the low total ownership did
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: was force separators and was forced different roster constructions to
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: make that work. And all of that already exists now.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: And so I'll segue it with Evan's second question, which
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: is more up my range. You know, you're covering the
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: single entry. I'm covering the MME stuff, but he's talking
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: about handbuilds, so it's single entry mixed. But I think
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: the biggest myth in all of dfs is that, and
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: I've been on record for this forever, is that like
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: an optimizer is only for MME. It's it's almost a
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: necessity for emmy, like you would say at the end
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: here Evan, but for somebody that's handbuilding. Oftentimes, what happens
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: in my experience and working with people in the mentorship
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: program and all different things and playing lie lineups is
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: they say, like I got the you know, I can
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: get it down to a certain number of golfers, but
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: then I struggle to find the one lineup that I'm
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: looking for. That's legit what an like I talk about
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: all the time, The stone, the new stone two point
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: zero on this screen, the optimizer on the other. Here's
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: my player pool I'm gonna work with. Exclude all. Now
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: turn on the guys. I want now see. Okay, I
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: put the gas in the vehicle. Now let's see where
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: it's gonna take me. And I'm gonna try and drive
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: it myself. So I'm letting it build really good lineups.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: And then I'm saying, okay, I called a virtual handbuild.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: That one's gonna be this way. I didn't really want
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: like those that type of combination. I kind of like
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: that one. It skips the popular nine K range, it
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: still projects well, it sims well, or it's got good
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: saber score whatever it is you're using. And then you're like,
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: and I get the two value plays. I like the most.
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: That's gonna be a completely different construction. I'm gonna play
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: that one for sure. And if you're only settling on one,
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: that's your your ball game. But that will help you
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: find it and you might pick up on something you
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: didn't see. And also, I'll say just a quick add
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: on in other sports and it's the Golf Show. But like,
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: if you're playing baseball lineups right now, you're like, man,
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: I really wish I could get like Atlanta and Boston together.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: That would be sweet. It's like, okay, well what does
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: that look like? Well, you can sit there and play
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: around with it by hand for half an hour and
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: it end up settling it. I know everybody's done this,
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: right they get down to their last two spots, like, well, shit,
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: I can't find it. Now I got to change my
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: picture to someone I don't want, or now I got
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: to take this stupid one off and just hope for
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: the best. The optimizer would have just had it for you.
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: It would have taken exactly what you wanted, giving you
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: the best projected versions, let you hand pick based on like,
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: Oh man, I see an al Twove one off, but
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: I see Alvarez one off. I wanted him. I didn't
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: even want al tuo Ve. All right, I'm gonna take
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: that one. It did it for you. It's what you wanted.
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: You still drove, You put the gas and you put
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: the directions in and then you let the vehicle drive you.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: The optimizer the vehicle. So I really think that's important,
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: and not many people talk about that, but I think
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: that's something you should use it for. Any added thoughts from.
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: You, Yeah, I like your thoughts there on the optimizer.
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: So I'll just cover the SIMS part of this answer.
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: And I think sims are also really hell for single entries,
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: and to me, it's it's not about like I think
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: the worst way that you can possibly use contest sims
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: is trying to find the highest ROI and expected value
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: possible where The better way to do it is to
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: answer is to ask and answer questions that you have
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: about line of buildings. So like any any question that
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: you you know, if you're in my discord, any two
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: v two question that you take to me and say, hey,
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: do you like this two v two or that two
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: v two more that kind of thing. You can ask
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: the contest sims as well and see which one it
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: likes there and sometimes that that question can be like, oh,
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: you know, I already have four guys in my lineup
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: who are in the early wave. So even though I
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: like this two v two which is two guys in
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: the afternoon wave, more than this two v two that
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: has that turns it into a six to zero, is
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: it worth going to the the one that projects worse
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: because I potentially get the added correlation. That's a great
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: thing that the contest sims can help answer. Another one
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: is like, when I look at our projections this week,
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: we have we have cam Young and Russell Henley projected
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: very similarly, both in ownership and projection. Russell Henley has
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: the slightly higher projection. Cameron Young has the slightly higher
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: ceiling projection. Does my lineup does the rest of my
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: lineup mean that Henley's floor advantage is better for my
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: lineup or cam Yung's ceiling advantage better for my lineup.
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: That's something that the conciout sims can answer. So things
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: like that I think are far more useful with the
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: contest sims, and they are massively beneficial for single anturry.
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: Another like really good example would be, you.
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: Know, I'm looking here at you know, Ludwig Oberg is
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: slightly lower owned than Henley, but Henley projects a little
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: bit better across the board. Is the rest of my
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: Does the rest of my lineup make it worth that
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: little bit of potential separation that I get with Oberg?
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: Or do I just want the high probability play in
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: Russell Henley.
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: Things like that, I.
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: Think are are definitely overlooked because it's the same idea.
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: Like I think, so many people think of contest sims
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: as building a bunch of lineups looking at the ROI
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: and either choosing your favorite or taking the you know,
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: the best one hundred and fifty out of the five
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: hundred that you built, or anything like that. And to me,
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: the real value of contestants is asking and answering the
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: right questions and.
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: Especially I'll add one point just on the ROI point
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: you made, because that people did it all to office
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: issue when they only have one lineup. For example, in baseball,
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: the best ROI is going to be the five man
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: stack against the most popular pitcher, and then you get
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: the pitchers against the most popular stacks if it fits together,
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: and people like, oh, I better take that. It's like,
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: what is that really good? Over time? Yes, because it's
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: a high turn of events. If just these two things
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: don't go right and really go the other way, you
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: probably win all the You put yourself in that upper
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: echelon immediately to have a chance to win it all.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: But this might take a thousand slit. This is over
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: ten thousand simulations or something. There's no way to know
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: that's going to happen today, and so you can take
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: it if you want. But it's usually why it's bad
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: to just pick the highest ROI lineup and run.
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: Well. Not only that, but there are enough people doing
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: that that that's that's that the actual like the best
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: lineups that the sims are pointing to are affecting ownership
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: and therefore making them not the best lineups and so
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: h and that's especially true when when you're using a
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: SIMS product that isn't you know, top notching ownership projections
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: and therefore not able to really accurately build the field's lineups.
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think sites this is possible. We could
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: definitely see a little bit of a lull this week,
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: but that usually just means condensed ownership on certain spots.
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: I'll hammer out a couple quick more and then we'll
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: get to I think we'll start with more Kawa because
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: you're bringing him across this week is a big topic.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: But well, quick, my guy, Timmy Dubbs. This is just
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: an excuse for people to be able to make because
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: nobody knows the mindset of anybody out there. And it's like,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: if you just play the game, man, like we always
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: talk about it, you know this all too well. Just
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: play the game this week, that's all you got to do.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: Nobody knows shit, We don't know what these guys' mindsets
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: are and all that. So let's play DFS and see
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: what happens. Because if a guy, one guy with a
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: bad mindset, one guy that played last week will come
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: in and do well. One guy that played good last week,
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: we'll come into it. It's like it's you just never
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: know how that stuff's going to be. I don't want
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: to spend too much time on all these different things.
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: Aaron, I think real quick.
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: I think the my preferred way to answer that question
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: is just ask if it's already baked in or not.
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: Is it baked into the price? Is it baked into
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: the ownership. If it isn't, then okay, maybe you let it,
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: you know, affect your decision. But if it is, like
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: if there's a guy who you thought was gonna be
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: twenty five or thirty percent, but he's fifteen percent because
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: nobody wants to play because he was just in contention,
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: then by all means, go play him, take take that ownership,
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: just count and run with it. So that's the way
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: that I like to tell the.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: Names and stop worrying about the plays. And just like
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: I said, just play the game, because it's that same
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: thing said differently. It's just at the end of the day,
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: you're not gonna know. And I think this is a
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: good conversation. We're gonna move to this week at the
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: RBC Heritage now, so you know, we missed by a minute,
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: but we were close. But Kala was one of three
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: percent last week he was your leverage lane like that
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: was an awesome call by you and came through. I
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: think it's a much bigger conversation this week though, because
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: now I think, what are we seeing like double digit
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: ownership possibly And.
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we've got him just under ten percent at nine
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: and a half. It as he just said, like, it's
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: that's very very different. One to three percent is massive
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: separation potential. Ten percent, he's still a separator by all means,
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: but he's not enough separation in and of himself the
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: way he was last week.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: So again, I think we talked pre show on this,
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: so I wanted to circle back for two seconds, and
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: we did talk about this setup of also how the
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: course is played, and you know we're gonna talk is
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: this a good segue for that too, because we're gonna
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: talk course fit, anything you might see with the weather
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: or anything like that. But just noting that, maybe do
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: you want to tie that into Kawa first and then
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: segue it into the other comments.
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So to understand how the different courses affected Markala,
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: let's first just talk about like what Moricawa's game looked
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: like this past week, how did he actually contend and
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: number one is he made a lot of butts, which
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: is not always somebody that we can count on with Colin.
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: But his boss speed was down and that wasn't just
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: a driver thing. It was also true of his irons.
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: And so the types of shots that he kept playing
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: was like, let's say he had one hundred and forty yards,
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: Usually that might be a stock pitching wedge for him
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: that he's launching up into the air. He was instead
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: like taking an eight iron and just chipping it.
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: So they didn't have to swing his hard.
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: Now, this works around Augusta because of how much undulation
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: and like segmentation there is within the greens. And so
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: if he needs to get the ball close from one
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: hundred and forty yards by chipping an eight iron, he
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: can do so by landing it here and letting the
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: contours of the green take the ball to the whole
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: things of that nature. You don't really get the same
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: thing here at Hilton Head. And so I think it's
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: gonna be a lot harder for him to play the
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: style of golf that he played last week here, and
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: that is a big concern for me.
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: And then the other point is, like so much of
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: what he was able to do.
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: Also was the fact that you don't always necessarily need
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: a lot of ball speed around Augusta to get the
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: ball to where you want, because the fairways also have
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: that type of undulation. So like think number ten right,
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: it's it's way downhill turning right to left. If you
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: hit a low draw around that corner, it's gonna run
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: and run and run. You don't need to hit a
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: high bombing, you know, shot around the corner or over
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: the trees to cut off the dog like the ball's
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: gonna end up in a very similar spot regardless. And
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: again you don't get that here at at Hilton Head.
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: So again I think I think he's a riskier play
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: this week for higher ownership. I'm probably not interested. And
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: as we talked about before the show, like the one
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: the one thought that I think can lead to you
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: wanting to play Morico and playing him with confidence is
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: he himself talked about one of the biggest difficulties that
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: he had last week wasn't necessarily a physical limitation, but
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: a mental limitation, where he talked about like the just
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: having difficulty trusting the fact that he could safely swing
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: because last time he swung really hard was on a
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: practice swing on a tea box, and all of a
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: sudden he had to pull out of the players. And
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: so if you think that last week and out me
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: like it looked like he was still in pain and
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: walking gingerly and all that stuff. But if you think that,
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: you know what, last week was less of a physical
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: limitation and more just like a mental block, and he
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: got through a full week playing good golf, no more injury.
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: He's going to be a little bit looser this week,
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: He's going to be swinging more confidently. He's more healthy
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: than we thought he was last week. That to me
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: is the only argument where it makes sense to play
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: good stuff on him.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: Do you want to anything with the weather you saw
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: or anything you want to take away as far as
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: like just adding in any wave advantages like people are mentioning,
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: or also the fact of you know, a lot of
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: people are talking about it in the chat. Again, I
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: think this is particularly baked in or like more for
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: like if you're making betting decisions where you're picking matchups
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: and picking on people and looking for stuff, But even
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: then it gets baked into the line, so it's like
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: the driving distance not yeah, like it's fifteenth how many
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: times have we been playing this course, Like we know
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: that you don't need bombers here, like literally everybody knows that.
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: So that's why I say, like some of that stuff
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: just becomes a bit of waste in my opinion. But
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: anything you want to add from the weather front or
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: the course fit front, just to round that bit out,
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: It does.
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: Look like we could get some breezy conditions both it's
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: Thursday especially less a little less so on Friday. Then
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: maybe actually Saturday morning look looks really really simple right now.
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: It doesn't look to me like there's going to be
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: a clear advantage. Maybe you get Thursday afternoon being the
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: toughest conditions. It also looks like there might be like
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: a lull on Thursday morning. But the biggest thought that
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: I have on the wave split this week is everybody
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: makes the cut. So typically the reason why Thursday and
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: Friday weather is so important is because the most important
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: thing for your player scoring equity is that he plays
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: seventy two holes instead of thirty six. Everyone plays seventy
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: two this week. So let's say you get the bad
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: draw on Thursday and Friday and you're in fortieth place
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: because of it, despite playing well Okay, now you get
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: the really calm Saturday morning where you can go shoot
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: a really low score and then the leaders have to
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: play and breeze your conditions late in the afternoon. So
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: it just matters a lot less when you have a
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: no cut event and you also have a bit of
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: a condensed field here. You know, it's it's eighty some
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: guys instead of the seventy, but still there are. It
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: just matters a lot less this week, I think, and
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: so I will be paying probably less attention to it
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: than usual, unless unless we get to you know, late
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: tonight and all of a sudden, it looks like there's
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: going to be a very clear and significant divide by
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: tea time switch.
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: Right now I'm not seeing.
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, everyone always talks in the chat in
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: the comments about like you know, picking plays and guys
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: that we always you know, sort of make fun of
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: a little bit, but just noting it. Like please, Alex,
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: what we need is a segment where you can tell
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: me the exact guys that are gonna play good a
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: little bit but not great to get me just so
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: that they play Saturday morning. I need to know exactly
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: how I get there to a six person lineup where
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: they only play Saturday morning, avoid the breeze on Saturday afternoon,
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: and then have themselves in a really good position on Sunday.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: And also if you can do me a favor and
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: make sure there's lots of wind on Sunday morning. So
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: now that you're in the lead, they also don't to
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: play in that, Like, just give me that and I'll win,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: you know, I'll win all the money. Then that'd be great.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: I would appreciate it. So I think it's important just
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: to think about. But I will say, like to you know,
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: another final comment on and then let's talk about Scotty
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: and no Cut Like, to me, that's where all the
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: strategy lives this week. You were already segment lives, you know,
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: a little get some live news here. Maybe soon we'll see,
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: but just noticing it again, like no cut strategy, looking
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: for different types of roster constructions and builds, being willing
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: to take on a little bit more of risk when
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: we want download. All that stuff's gonna matter way more
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: like people. I was like, oh, pick the dudes that
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: are lower owned or all this stuff. It's all factored
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: in to what we're doing. But honestly, if you had
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: a good segment, and you don't believe my statement that
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: nobody knows shit, Like we know some stuff, we're trying
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: to put it together. But if you truly know like everything, honestly,
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: it's not even still best suited for a DFS lineup
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: because you still have to find then the right six
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: that fit together under the salary conditions. There's so many
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: more variables in DFS of like streaks, eagles, all four
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: under seventy, Like, there's tons of different way that can affect.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: You could have a lineup that finishes with four guys
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: in the top ten and two in the top twenty
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: and be nowhere near the top because it's like you
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: didn't quite get the winner or you didn't get that
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: and you could win a lot more knowing that stuff
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: in advance on placement bets, outright bets, matchup bets, things
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: like that. So if you actually knew that stuff, it's
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: it's better applied in my opinion for golf betting, pickums, props,
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: et cetera. Not my lane, just noting it and not
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: about my leverage and literally not my lane at all.
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: I'm focused on DFS strategy and education. But my point
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: being it's all that. That's why that stuff, like everything
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: we talked about at the top of the show about
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: not being able to control your sweat, we don't get
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: to hit the shots. We have no idea. We just
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: put ourselves in position to get those one and twenty
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: shots at a million on Sunday and hope that eventually
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: goes our way. That's really what we're trying to do.
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: So let's talk about no cut strategy, and let's use
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: it to bring up Scotty Scheffler, because one note on
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: Scotty this week is they did dip his price some. Yes,
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: but also, I mean, now you're talking about elite golfers
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: like Sung jm at sixty seven hundred anyone who knows
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: me it's an inside joke, but just noting it more.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: There's like Keegan Holma, people like you know, Woodland McCarty, Sung,
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: Jay Novak, Wallace, Jordan Smith, Putnam, all these guys people
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: have seen lately and in some cases do stuff that's
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: in the upper sixes. All those guys I just named.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: Then there's also tons of love for guys like Norin
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: and Harmon and Yella and Poston and Stevens. They don't
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: even cross seventy two hundred, So it is very very
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: easy to build a Scottie line up this week, with
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: the interesting note that I still think people like Fitzpatrick
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: Young Henley coming off the week that they just had,
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: so go ahead, I'll let you take it from there.
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean my answer here is actually a little
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: bit less just like overall strategy and more specific to
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: just this week. And the one place we'll deviate from
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: that is I think that the you know, popular convention
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: here is that no cut events make it easier to
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: do studs and duds because the does that you're using
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: or going to play seventy two holes instead of thirty six.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: And that's definitely true. But think of all of the
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: conversations we've had about Scotty this year and about Scotty
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: lineup specifically, and what is the number one thing that
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: we've said about those lineups is that they lack the
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: ceiling that you need for the entire lineup to be competitive.
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: And I think that that still holds a little bit true.
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he did jump down in price to thirteen to
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: five instead of fourteen, but that all that moves the
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: needle on is that means that the remaining five spots.
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: Instead of an average of seventy two hundred, you get
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: an average of seventy three hundred. And you look at
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: the names down there, and the names down there are
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: still not guys with a ton of win equity. Connors
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: and Kagan, I think are a little bit of an exception.
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: You can say Sung Jay's a bit of an exception.
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: So like you are going to build lineups with Scotty
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: that you do feel good about. He is very usable
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: in that regard, but you're not getting the win equity
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: from those guys that you're getting from Minwu Lee or
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: stepstrac or Chris Godderop or Jacob Bridgman in this you
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: know upper sevens, low eight, let alone the nine K
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: range where you're getting you know, Russell Henley, camiong Matta, Fitzpatrick,
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: those guys that we just talked about, Tommy Fleetwood's and
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: or Shoffley. So the rest of the lineup you're definitely
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: still sacrificing win equity. And you're basically saying, like, I
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: think it goes back to this idea of is Scotty
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: a separator or not? And I think that right now
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: you can make the argument that he is like, we
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: only haven't projected for thirteen and a half percent in
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: single entries, which absolutely would make him a separator. So
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: you give his twenty percent win equity the potential to
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: separate your lineup, and now Scotty lineups do become a
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: little bit interesting. And so to me, like, the more
• 42:40
  Speaker 3: interesting part of this decision isn't the fact that he
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: went from fourteen to thirteen and a half. It's that
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: his ownership still might be low. And for the first
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: time last week and at least like a month, we
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: saw Scotty play really really good typical Scotti Scheffler golf.
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: And that is why if I have some interest in
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: him this week, it's it's for that reason. It's because, Okay,
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: he looks like Scotty again, and now I'm interested at
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: low ownership.
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: I think the ownership is the key that you mentioned,
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: because I still see him like sub fifteen. I think
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: that's gonna happen, even though because it's like the bit
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: of a price dip I just mentioned, but like the
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: I get that it's easy to plan, but I'll say
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: is like, there's a lot of people I see already
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: building these and it's like Scottie, Noorrin Stevens, someone else.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: It's like, you have the worst Scotti lineup in the world.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: Whether it comes through or not, we can't control. But
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: like you're just building the same as everyone else. I've
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: built the Scotty lineup. It was like Scotty Fitzpatrick and
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: three six k guys like let's roll and like they're
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: all lower own. Like if I'm looking at stuff early on,
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying, there's so many different ways that you
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: could do it. But if you are going Scotty because
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: of everything Alex just said and I agree with, It's
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: like I'm still looking at the total construction and I
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: think a lot of people Alex just say, well, kind
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: of hear what they're saying. I don't think he has
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: the ceiling either. But I'm gonna build one Scottie lineup
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: in case and they burn twenty of one hundred dollars,
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: just twenty percent of their Again, you can extrapolate it
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: up or down. Are you gonna put that two hundred
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: bucks of your thousand or twenty dollars versus your hundred
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: and say I'll build the worst Scotti line up possible
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: just because like if it came through it's this way,
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: I I'd want to get it different if I'm doing that.
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: And to that point, like I think a really good
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: rule of thumb is simply if you ever catch yourself
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: saying just in case as a reason for building a
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: lineup that you're building, stop it, do something else, right.
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: The reason should always be this gives me the best
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: chance to have a really good week, not just in case,
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: but this is this is my best possible path to
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: having a great week.
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: And I think, like I said, I think, I just
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: think that's a really good rule of thumb.
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: Another distinction I want to make is when we talk
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: about how easy it is to build Scotty lineups, I
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: think there are two different meetings here. Number one is
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: what do Scotti lineups look like? Do you have conviction
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: on everyone in a Scotty lineup? And I think that
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: in that sense, it is easy to build Scotty lineups
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: this week. But the other sense is is it easy
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: to build him where you're also playing most of the
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: guys that you really really want to play this week?
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: And in that sense, it's still really difficult because as
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: we talked about, like most people are going to have
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: conviction on Fitzpatrick or cam Jung or Henley or Oberg
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: or Seewu or MacIntyre, mav McNeely, minwu aka Shabatia and
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: those guys, especially those first few names, are really difficult,
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: too impossible to play in Scotti lineups. And so yeah,
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: in that regard, it's still difficult to build Scotty limpes,
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: just because once you click him, you are exing out
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: so many guys that a lot of people want to play.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so yeah, I said differently, like it's easy to
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: build Scotty lineups that might be horrible, but if you
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: have conviction on that, then roll them. But it's like
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: you said, or look to get different and take on
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: some more risk. At the bottom, you're already getting Scotty
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: the separator. You can get some of those guys up
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: the middle. I would really like that. What I'd want
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: to be doing myself is looking to avoid like Scotty
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: with a bunch of guys seven to seventy five hundred.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: And you're like, well, kind of have to do that,
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: Like that's his price, and you know that's where the
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: average puts you if you just land in that range,
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: and there's a ton of good values and projections would
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: put you in that range for a good scott line
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: up on that end, but those are median projections and
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: it's a no cut and there's ability to take on
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: risks where you can make it work and someone will
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: have it if if Scotty wins at this event. You know,
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: smaller field no cut, it's not always guaranteed because those
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: eight nine K guys could really come through. But also
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: in a larger field tournament the MM side that I'm
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: talking about, even with leveraging, there's still gonna be angles
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: where somebody probably gets to that. So I just think
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: it's important you know too. So that was good, great
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: advice from you. I gotta know though quickly, not to
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: bring a fullnother segment into it. But the the maintenance
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: man battle, what is the what is the maintenance man battle?
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: Over here?
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: I was from from our show yesterday with with Pat
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: there was we had we had a long fire alarm
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: situation the day before and apparently there was like a
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: gas leak and so maintenance was making the rounds yesterday
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: just making sure like everyone's gas stuff is all in order,
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: like with the stoves and stuff. And they knocked on
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: the door and I muted. I thought I was muting myself.
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: But you know how when when Pat sends you the links,
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: he sends you two links and one is so and
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: see everything was just for you. And so I was
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: in the wrong tab and I wasn't actually muting myself
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: when I, you know, yelled at the maintenance fan like
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: come back, I'm on a callar on a show whatever,
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: And so it happened like three times because for some reason,
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: they knocked like four times in a row, even though
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: I said the same thing over and over. So it
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: was that was funny. I thought I was muted, and
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: all of a sudden Pat says it. I was like
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: you can hear me, Oh shit, And then yeah.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: Did you get for July?
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: Pat is the kind of guy who you know, always
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: sees the humor in those situations.
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: So that was so good, really good. Yeah.
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I didn't listen, but if you if you were,
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: you know, getting heated or something with the guy, like
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: come back later, it's like that I could just I
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: gotta go listen now, because I think it's like you're
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: always so nice and humble and quiet and composed, and
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: it's like you're probably like, buddy, why are you knocking
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: on my door so much.
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: Like that's like, that's exactly what happened.
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: So like the the last time I said it, I
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: I there was some irritation in my voice pretty clearly,
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: and and I think that's what Pat really liked to hear.
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: And that's why I were like, oh damn it, human human,
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: which like, by the way, it meant that.
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: I was accidentally just yelling while Pat was speaking.
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: So it was just like I said, I'm very appreciative
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: that that Pat's all the humor in it.
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you don't want to catch the wrath of Pat Mayo,
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: that's for sure. In there done that. But yeah, all right,
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: let's say this. Yeah, I'm Alex did say please. Yeah, yeah,
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: I believe at least I did the first few times.
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I did the last time. The
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: third time was great, And by great, i'm sure Ross
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: means it was great for watching and viewing. But back
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: to the the RBC hare, did you appreciate a good,
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: good Alex story. That's a good one too, So let's
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: talk about the chalk build then and what we see
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: with that, you know, kind of gave our takes on
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: more cawas Scotty situation, the no cut strategy, all of that,
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: and and different roster constructions. But what are you then
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: seeing as the sort of chalk build And I'm gonna
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: try on my screen. I won't bring it up here,
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: but I'll just build as we go. You can kind
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: of guideline me to where you think it lands.
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I think the starting point, as we've kind
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: of seen is the high end of the starting point
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: is going to be Xander. And then like the bulk
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: of lineups are going to start with some combination if
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: it's Patrick cam Young, Russell Henley, maybe some lou vig Oberg,
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: and then there's like a secondary tier of Sea Wu
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: McIntyre and mav And then almost every type of lineup
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: construction can use either minwuly and or Aksha Batiya. So
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: those guys are gonna be popular. And then whether you're
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: using Scotty or you're trying to jam in as many
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: of those expensive guys as possible, those who do need
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: to go to the six K range or you know,
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: really low sevens. I see them going to Norrin Connors,
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: Kegan and Sung JM. And beyond that, like there's I know,
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: I just named a bunch of players, but beyond that,
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: there's there's no one who's going to be like crazy owned,
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: and so it's really just like these these little pockets
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: that you just have to be aware of and make
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: sure that you're not going from one pocket to the
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: next and just using all those guys.
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, do you think an eight K guy lands in
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: there at all very often? Or do you think it's
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: going to be like the bottom to the top. And
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: if it's the top, it's kind of like maybe Xander,
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: but more likely Fits. Like I could see like something
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: like that, right, Like you can do a what does
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: Fits and Henley do? The problem is I can't see
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: it like at the bottom. I think Norin and Stevens
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: are super popular. I think min Wu as well, but
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: it's like, how does the bill get to min Wu
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: without stopping in the eight K range? Because another nine
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: K guy leaves you there. So it's like, if I
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: took min Wo out, who's the other guy cheap enough?
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: I guess what does Henley and Young look like? That's
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: all that's six point three, So I don't think it's
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: going that low, So it's probably one of those two.
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: But even that's eight point one k. Is there an
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: eight K guy? I guess is the question that you
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: see being more popular than the others.
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: So we've kind of had this theme a bunch lately,
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: right where we've said, you know, there's so much attention
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: in the nine K range and so much in the
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: seven K range, at the EK range is gonna go overlooked.
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: I don't think we have that to the same extent
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: this week, but it is still true that the main
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: pockets are upper sevens and then like mid to upper
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: nines to low tens. So there is still a path
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: where like if you just go in on that eight
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: K range, you're going to be different, where instead of
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: having two nines and two sevens you have four eights.
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: That's still going to be a very unique construction.
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: Even if some of those players aren't quite as alone
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: as what we've gotten in the past few weeks, because
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: like almost everyone in the eight K range was just
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: totally overlooking. It was so so hard to land in
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: that range if you were playing kind of popular high
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: probability plays.
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I was trying to sort of go
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: through here and just see. But it looks like the
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: close I mean, the closest version that people can mess
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: around it later. Is like something that starts with like
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: a cam Young Henley kind of fits your Nora and
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: Stevens whatever else in there, and you might have to
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: pick an eight K guy, but then it gets you
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: like one of your min Wu's or whatever. So like
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: that kind of me to me at least, is the
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: starting point of it. And then wherever you want to
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: go from there, Obviously you're you know, a McNeely or
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: a min Wu can drop way down to like a
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: Connor's or a song Jay and now all of a
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: sudden you're popping up to another nine K guy or whatever.
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: So it's like tons of different things you can look
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: at from that perspective, But I think like that's the
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: main starting point. So let's talk about how to leverage.
• 52:04
  Speaker 4: This one thing there.
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: Actually this kind of answers that exact question of like, okay,
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: well what can you do to leverage the come and build?
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: Going back to one of the questions earlier about total ownership,
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: this is another reason why total ownership doesn't tell the
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: whole story, because you're not looking at, okay, well do
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: I have unique combinations of players? And so as I
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: look at our single entry ownership right now, like I'm
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: seeing the combination of Oberg and Minwouly or Akhebatia is
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: very similar to the combination and ownership not just the
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: sum but of both players to Seawou Kim and Robert
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: MacIntire similar price as well. But I would venture I
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: guess that the combination of Sea Wou and Bobby Mack
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: is a lot more contrarian than the combination of Oberg
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: and minwoo Lee, just because one is the preferred roster construction,
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: where it's just so much more natural to go from
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: nine K to upper seven K than having two of
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: those AK guys, And so you might get a combinatorial
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: ownership in terms of like how many people have for
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: this exact combination with that eight K range, even though
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: the total ownership for those two pairs is gonna be
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: pretty close to identical.
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And we also just gave like a that ties
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: in exactly to the other point of like again, we
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: were barely seeing an eight K guy in most lineups,
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: maybe one though at most, and that immediately injects two
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: into your lineup just from that one move, and it's
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: like that again, you're getting less of the ownership, less
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: combinatorial ownership, and you're getting a unique construction. That's what
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: we're trying to say again about like who does anyone
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: know if Ludwig and Min Wu is gonna beat Robert
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: McIntyre and see woo this week. We don't. We actually
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: won't know even till Sunday, and a lot of people
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: declare things. Oh, by the way, Cam Young dead on
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: day one, the guy I don't know how he came
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: back from dead. He was buried alive on Thursday and
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: then came back and almost won the Masters on Sunday.
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: It's golf. It's like that type of stuff can happen,
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: but nobody will know till it ends. But that's why
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: the other side of it, to your point, you just
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: made matter so much more. It's like, man, that's just
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: potentially because again your other pieces in your lineup matter.
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: But that's where you can find these angles of Like man,
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: that's quite the difference I'm getting now on all three angles,
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: and it allows me to still play a Fitzpatrick and
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: a Nooran or something like that's different than you know,
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: that's the same as everybody else, but in a different way. Again,
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: teach your own but just showing that off. I definitely
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: think something like that is important to think about when
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: you're looking at your roster construction here. So I think
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: multiple eight K guys for sure. I think also anything
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is more obvious, but just noting it,
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: anything that skips the nine ks is gonna be you know,
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: super low owned because it's gotta be Cameron Young, Henley,
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: Ludwig Marikawa. And and don't forget, I mean this always
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: gets slept on at these types of events at this price.
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: Tag can't lay was like the best ball striker in
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: the field on Saturday. I know he didn't help people,
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: you know, help people very much on Sunday, but it
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: was the bogie free sixty seven or whatever on Saturday.
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: And then people are also gonna look and say, well,
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: I know who plays good around here? You know, can't
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: it's coming in off a twelve at a seventh before that,
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: but thirteenth third, third, second, third, seventh and seven third
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: like miss cut once in there, like he plays good here.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: So the nine K range is just gonna be extremely
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: popular regardless of how you look at it.
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: Agree with that for sure.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: So one thing you said about Xander and I was
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: just pulling this up quickly here just you know, not
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: to spend too much time on it. But if you
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: pull up like Xander, it leaves you seven point nine
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: k average. I think this is where it gets really
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: interesting too, because you could I'm just gonna mess around
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: for two seconds, but like the Sea Wou Bobby mac
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: factor lands you in the bottle in that mid seven,
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: it's right between seven and seventy five hundred. You have
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: seventy three hundred average, So just just between give or take.
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: But I think that's where you're already different enough if
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: you wanted to do something with these popular guys. But again,
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: I don't think you're offline at all by saying, what
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: does it look like if I add a sepstraca and
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: now I got seven k flat left, and then I
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: go with like a sixty five hundred and a seventy
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: five you know what I mean? Like you can mix
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: it up and still get different while doing that and
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: just have a completely different construction. It skips. Then it
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: doesn't have Ludwig and Minmu or any combo of that,
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: but it has the Sea Wu McIntyre we talked about.
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: You still have x You're not getting up to Scotty,
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: but you're also not punting like three six K guys
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: here or needing to. And even if you liked two
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: six K guys, let's say you were interested in a
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: couple six K guys, you could be back up to
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: another eight K guy and you skip the nines and
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: the sevens and you got two six k's instead of
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: three or more. With like that Scotty version we said,
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: where you can actually play Scotty and a top guy
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: and then you got three guys up the middle that
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: you can play here, like a Bridgeman or something like that,
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: or Justin Thomas or whatever you feel is up your
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: your range. There, it's like six seven points off. The
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: other lineup that we just had is like the Chalk build.
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: It's a completely different construction. It fades ranges, The ownerships
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: are actually similar currently, it's not that crazy difference, but
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: it's such a different construction and starting point and everything
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: across the board. So little things like that are what
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: I'd be looking at, especially if you're playing just one lineup.
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: But in my player pool for mme, definitely the same thing.
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm between two leverage lanes and one of
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: them is very similar to what you just talked about.
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just think it's like the the way the
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: tournament sets up is you can say. I also think
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: like there's somebody to be said too, by the way,
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: and so I'll say two things in one year. What
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: I was just about to say is like, let's say
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: a let me pull this up real quick. For sixty
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: nine hundred, I'm just gonna use like the upper sixes
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: for this example. But if you go to like Keegan
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: for a second, who probably gets like the boost and
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: the high stakes and whatnot, But like let's just use
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know, Homer, Gary Woodland, you know, maybe Matt Wallace,
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: somebody like that. Anyway, there's guys in the upper sixes
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: that are gonna get you know, some clicks, but not
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: nearly what they could. And and some of them actually
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: played well last week or fired at pins or did
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: different things. That's what you're using as your gauge. So
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: it's like just my point of you can still have
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: guys in that range that not everyone can be super popular. Obviously,
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: if you're adding in Stevens Norn, we know they're gonna
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: be popular, and that's what's gonna get plugged in by
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: projections in most cases, but there is guys that you
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: might here talked about that just still can't get clicked enough,
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: that can still get you that unique construction that builds
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: you into that spot and still gives you upside. And
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: that's where people get frustrated when they're like, damn, knew
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: I should have went back to this guy or that
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: guy continued to play well, like I should have you know,
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: I should have thought of that, And that's why I
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: was trying to use. I was looking at some of
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: the guys down there just to compare, but let's try
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: to see like like Stevens is gonna be based off
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: last week and the week before, but it also hasn't
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: done well here. I was trying to look at somebody
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: that has done well here and like didn't do Like, like,
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: how much do you think JT. Postin gets owned this
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: week at seventy two hundred?
• 58:43
  Speaker 4: I don't think much. We've got him at five percent.
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: And it's the same sort of thing that we've talked about, right,
• 58:50
  Speaker 3: Like even in this smaller field, look how many guys
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: there are between seven and seven point five k Like
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: it's it's just when you go down to this range,
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: every but he has so many options to choose from,
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: and everybody has like slightly different preferences. So yeah, they're
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: gonna be guys who are preferred by more than others
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: nor in Connors Keegan, But none of these guys I
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: think are going to get out of control, and especially
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: like that secondary level. It's gonna be really hard in
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: a week like this with pricing like this for someone
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: who we think is gonna be five percent to get
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: to ten to fifteen, just because there are so many
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: of those guys who are five Where like if we
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: were looking at a very different pricing and instead of
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: having looks like something like I don't know fifteen guys
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: between seven and seven point five, if we had five
• 59:36
  Speaker 3: of them and four of them were popular and one
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: of them was five percent, Okay, now it's like there's
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: a very real chance that this guy projected at five percent.
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: Everyone's gonna say I want the contrarian guy in this range,
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: and they take him. But it's not the case. If
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: you want a five percent guy between seven and seven
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: point five, k you got like eight to ten options.
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: And so the likelihood that everyone chooses this same quote
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: unquote sneaky guy to the point where he's not sneaky anymore.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: It's just really really low.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I would use that. That's a better one
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: I think is probably Norn. So here here's a prime
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: example for me. Like JT. Poston could be one third
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: the ownership of Norrin. But you're still hearing people mention JT.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: Poston's name like they're betting him or something, or it's
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: getting mentioned. But just on the way it's going with
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: the optimizer, the projections, the clicks, whatever you want to
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: say of how people are getting there, I think more
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: people could end up on Norrin. And if you really
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: took and I'm used I'm not a coarse history truth
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: or of just noting this, like of the idea of
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: this concept. It's like JT. Poston didn't play last week,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: Norn finished thirtieth. Norn's upside has been twelfth place six
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: events ago. Besides, that's like twenty fourth or worse and
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: miss cuts and thirtieth's and like very mediocre scores and results,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: and some of those are in better fields. If you
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: look even two weeks ago when Posten played, he beat Norrin.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: He was better than noron that week in the same event.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: It's twenty first to Norn's thirtieth. And then you look
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: at posting here eleventh, fifth, third, eight, six, couple of
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: miss cuts like he can have the upside event here
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: Norn hasn't even played it the last three years. That
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: could be one third the ownership. And it's not just
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: about that. You can play them both together. If you
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: think Norn's a really good value and you want to
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: kind of cut into it in a different way, play
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: them both. I'm just saying when people are looking at it,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: it's not in a vacuum, but some of those thoughts
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: can be built around that when you're kind of looking
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: for that zone. And I honestly don't see where Posten
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: gets the ownership that Norn does. Right now, I'm seeing
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: like it could even be one third. So I think
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: little things like that when people are trying to figure
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: it out, are just you look at the rest of
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: your lineup and use that to guideline your decision. If
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: you're already super Chalky or popular or on a very
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: popular construction up top, I would find it really difficult
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: to finish it out with Norn because I'm calculating for
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: the whole entire lineup and not just Nora in the play.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: But I'd feel just as fine if I had to
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: make the decision for someone out there with single entry
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: to say, you know what, I like this construction. I
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: land in this range, but I actually like posting and
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: it looks like I'm gonna get him at one third
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: the ownership, so sweet, I'm gonna plug him in. I'd
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: be good with that, because you're still consuming tering all
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: of those factors and then finalizing with that thought. I
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: don't know if you have anything else you want to
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: add on leveraging the common build this week, but I
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: think we kind of hammered that one out to anything
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: else you want to add.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: Just one more thing, Like I think the the Minwu
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: and Oxha plays like we've got them at nineteen and
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: nineteen point seven percent right now. There's a chance that
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: those guys end up like thirty percent in some contests.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: And so if I had to like point to two
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: chalk guys that I know I'm in a fade, it's
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: probably those two because there are good options around them.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: You can go Harris English, Chris got her up, Ricky Fowler,
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: Sath Pagala, Michael thorpe Bjornson, like there are plenty of
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: guys who have played really good golf this year, and
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: you're gonna get a massive ownership discount in comparison to
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: those guys. Steps Strac adjacent day as well. Even Bridgeman
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: up at eighty two, like he still counts as a
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: pivot as well.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Bridgeman's interesting as well up there too, like you said,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: in that sort of the ak range lineup build. But again,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: those lineups still come in very close in even median projection,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: and it is insane. And ownership is actually kind of
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: similar for again going back to total ownership, why we've
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: kind of had this whole thing come together by the
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: end of it all, it's like, that's why it's not
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: really worth that conversation. It's like a lot. It's there's
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: lineups with Xander, three eight K guys and two six
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: K options that fade the entire seven K chalk of
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: whoever it might be, Nora and stevens Aux shay Minwood
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: to start at least, if not others, and then it
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: also fades all those nine K guys, and it even
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: fades Fitzpatrick because we're going to you know, Xander instead.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: So it's like little things like that. Obviously, if Xander's
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: your your dude, you get it fits as your dude.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: You can put them in for Xander whatever. There's tons
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: of ways to get different, but just kind of a
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: few to throw that out there. So one and done,
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: what do we end up going Hatten last week and
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: then just lucking out at the end, or what do
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: we decide on in the end? I forget?
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: Let me check who did we go with? I think
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: I know how to check this.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually had Rory in.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 4: My We're so bad at this. We went camp Smith.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I remember this conversation.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so yeah, I had I had Read in one,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: I had Hatton in another, and then I had cam
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: Smith and ours.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: So it was a tale of.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: Two stories with Papa Tambo. He went with Bryson and
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: got screwed on the last and by the way, that
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: cost me a six to six in the main event
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: last week. That still finished like sixty third. That was like,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: but that was bad, And I had Rory and got
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: the win. So I'm up to five hundred and sixty
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: even with a Rory win, I'm up to five hundred
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: and sixty first place. That's how hard One and done is?
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: What are you thinking for this week or what are
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: your thoughts on this one?
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: My biggest thoughts for this week is that we have
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: a really like extreme course fit model where distance is
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: less predictive than usual into which is an interesting note
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: when you think of my leverage lane, which obviously we're
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: gonna get to, accuracy off the tee is extremely predictive.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: It's over one hundred percent more predictive than usual. And
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: then you also get a boost to both around the
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 3: green and putting, with accuracy and around the green being
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 3: the two highest separating skill sets at this golf course.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 3: So my first thought is, can we find somebody like
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: near the top who's one of the best players in
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: this field that we give him a lot more win
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: equity at disc golf course than at most of the
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: signature events, Like you know, we're about to go to
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 3: Miami and quel Hollow, two courses where distance is massively rewarded.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: So I think that's kind of the main thought I
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: want to lean into, which points us to Henley or
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: Tommy Fleetwood or Matt Fitzpatrick. Calla Morikawa if he was healthy,
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: I think would be a good play. But those are
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: the kind of names that I think I really point
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: to first. Robert McIntyre is another one.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 4: Seawoo Kim. Those kinds of players, all right, I.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: Like probably I don't know. I was kind of feeling
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: the Sea Wou call. But you know, what do you
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: think of for ours?
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: My My first thought was Henley, but I like Sea
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: Wu quite a bit as well. I'd be interested in
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: Tommy or if I of those names. I actually don't
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: have that strong of a preference this week. So if
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: you have a strong preference to see Wu, I'm good
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 3: with that. No.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: Actually, I mean that was before you brought up names
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: that made me so first of all, like Henley or
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: Tommy wearing this plaid jacket, it looks like that it's
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: built for them, Like it's just like with his hair
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: hanging out the green jacket. I don't see as much
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: I see the green jacket actually on Henley. I know
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: he's a Georgia boy. Maybe that's why I'm thinking of that.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: But it's like, if I saw anything there but Tommy,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: he could wear a plaid jacket. So I don't know,
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: Like what else are we saving to? Is there any thought?
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: Just quickly on to round of one and done on
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: saving Tommy versus saving Henley, like where that we might
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: use them at differences of that, I can't think of
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: a lot. That's why I'm asking you, but said that
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: I liked Aaron's comment. Blinkel, you just described Blickell, just
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: described Henley truthfully.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 3: You did, Yes, I did, one did, which is which
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: is why I think Henley is my lean as well,
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: where Tommy's game is a little bit more diverse, and
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: like they're actually very similar in all Stokes gain categories.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 3: The biggest difference is that Tommy, despite losing strokes with
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 3: his distance to this field, still gains about point two
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: strokes per round with his distance over Russell Henley all
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: of their other categories, like, let's see Henley's point zero
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: five better in accuracy, point zero seven better in approach,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 3: point zero two worseen around the green, point zero four
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: betteran putting.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 4: It's like the.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 3: Only place, I mean, these guys are incredibly similar golfers.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 3: The only place that they really separate is distance. And
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: obviously this is of course that mutes distance. So this
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: is probably a better place to use Henley, where we're
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: more likely to, you know, have a place that we
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: really want to use Tommy later yeah.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: I like that, So let's let's do that. Let's use
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: Henley save Tommy for a minute from now and then
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: Also what about betting, betting segment bet the betting breakdown?
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: I know, I think you had one that you posted
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: your discord. Maybe we go back to back because the
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: Henley top three each way I got there last week.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: You had to be split a little bit, but still
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: better than what people thought it was going to be.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: I can certainly tell you that. Yeah.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: Man, it's so frustrating that he didn't get more out
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: of it because he couldn't made putts on Sunday. But
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 3: when when I think of like how he ruined his
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 3: chances this week, it was it was more Thursday and Friday.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 3: He played really good golf Thursday and Friday, but every
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 3: single time he made a birdie, he immediately give it back.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 3: So if he could have just strung like holes together instead,
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 3: he would have been he would have been in striking
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: distance before he had the nuclear weekend, instead of needing
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: the nuclear weekend just to get within striking distance.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: So it really could have been even better.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: But it was awesome to see how well he played
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: given given how confident, you know, I was in him
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: and uh And this week, the the only hour and
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 3: I have so far is Minwouly. There is a chance
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: I'm going to add to it, but I haven't found
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 3: anything else yet that I really like. But honestly, like,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 3: of all the of all the thoughts that i had
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 3: last week, one of the ones that I'm most proud
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 3: of is actually the minwu Ly fade because it was
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 3: such like just a just kind of like a a
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 3: a supporting evidence, if you will, of one of my
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: biggest thoughts about PGADFS in general, which is people don't
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: care enough about long term form and the idea that
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: who you are really comes to fruition in major championships
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: and at the Masters. And Minually has been awesome this
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: year with his approach play.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: It's been like one of the.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: Most improved skill sets on tour, but who he is
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 3: is still a guy who can be vulnerable at times
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 3: with his approach play. You put him on a golf course,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: and this is the other thing that I really liked
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 3: about it is like it also meshed with the course
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: fit emphasis that I apply to my PGADFS thoughts and
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 3: process because Augusta is a course that rewards and exposes
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 3: approach play maybe more than any other. And so you
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 3: take a guy who who he is is someone vulnerable
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 3: with the approach play, and even though he's been awesome
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: this year, he really got exposed in that way last
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 3: week and so avoided that chalk. But now you get
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 3: to a different golf course when we're approach play isn't
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 3: a separating skill set. It's accuracy and around the green.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 3: He's more accurate than people realizing is around the green
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: play and punning are obviously both phenomenal, and I just
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 3: think this is really good spot for me. He's one
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 3: of the most volatile players and so he has a
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 3: really really good win odds because of it. We've got
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 3: him at two percent and with that kind of special
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 3: each way over at bet three six five, you can
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: get him at one hundred to one. So literally, you know,
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 3: one hundred percent of expected value here. I love the
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 3: outright here on Minwu.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, gonna be gonna be tailing after last week at
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: the Henley stuff. And I think one point you made too,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: just on a side note of like the long term
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: talent that people seem to ignore. Obviously, there's a course
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: fit at Augusta National Golf Club and we know this,
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: you know, just in general, but like Rory Scotty, sure,
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: but like after that, if you take like the Henley
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: hatt and Rose every year, it seems now you know
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: the Burns. But listen to this though. These are the
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: names that I'm talking about though, like Sam Burns, Max Homa,
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: Jason Day, Patrick Reid, Hedeki Matsiyama, Patrick Cantley, Jordan Speith,
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: Brooks Koepka. This is the leaderboard I'm reading out, Victor Hoblin,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: Matt Fitzpatrick. It's like they've all been good, we know
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: their name games, do you know, like most of those
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: guys I'm not gonna pull up again from last week,
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: but most of those guys did not have very much
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: ownership attached to them at all. And it's just like
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: a game going back to projections, what you know, coming
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: in all that stuff versus saying, yeah, but these guys
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: are really good golfers long term and this could be
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: where it spikes and this could be where it comes through,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: and that can mean a lot to your lineups. Like
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know how many people would have a Rory
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: Hatton Burns. You know, Jason Day can't lay speed, lineup
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: last week, and I don't even know exactly how much
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: that fits, but I'm just say like, that's that would
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: have been a really good lineup. And it's like when
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: you look back at it and say, and I talked
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: about a ton of our shows we did last week
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: with Pat and here of like, couldn't you see a
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: leader board that just has these names across it, like
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: the Reds, the hatt Ands, the Roses, all that stuff.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: Somebody tagged me was like, isn't that the that lineup
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: your name? Not quite because Rory would have to fit
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: in there somewhere, but just noting we knew he could
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: be up there, we knew Scotty could be up there,
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: and they came one two shut through our guy Matt Gannon,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: by the way, hit the dual forecast. That's pretty incredible.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: But just noting it. That's That's what I'm saying about
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: some of this stuff sometimes where people just completely go
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: away with it and their process is just like ignoring
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: that and go all right back to the same thing
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: that didn't work or hasn't worked for them. You've got
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: to think about those things as well. So I really
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: like that point on the long term form all right,
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: go to the leverage lane. I'll let you roll first here.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna save mine un till the end. I kind
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: of got to it as we went along, But I'm
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: feeling good about this one. So what's yours?
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I like this one too, and it's really contraring,
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: and it goes against course fit a little bit where
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 3: I want to lean into guys who are long off
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 3: the tea this week. Now, what I'm not saying here
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 3: is that I'm gonna go look at driving distance and
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna pick my lineup based on driving distance. No,
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: what I'm looking for is guys who project well and
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: hit the ball far. Why Because the field likes prototypes.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: They like thinking, Okay, this is a course where accuracy
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: matters more in the distance. So I'm want to find
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: someone who fits both of those things.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: He is accurate and he is not long. But there
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 3: are guys who are aturate and long. And the other
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 3: variable here is that this is a no cut event,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: and so when like, one of the biggest adjustments that
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 3: I make is when we have no cut events, I
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 3: care more about volatility. I want that to added volatility,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: and I care more about scoring and Birdie raidover expectation
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 3: is heavily correlated with driving distance. The further you hit
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: the ball, the more likely you are to make more
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 3: birdies than you're expected.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 4: Pretty intuitive relationship there.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: And so when I look at like the highest berdie
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: rate over expectation guys Ludvig Oberg, Cameron Young, Sam Burns,
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: Jake Knapp, Justin Thomas, Minwu Lee, Nikolai Hoygard, Michael Thorpe, Jornson,
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: Wyndham Clark, all these guys hit the ball far right.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 3: And so I'm leaning into like this counterintuitive narrative because
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: even though they fit the golf course a little bit
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: worse than they otherwise would if the golf course rewarded distance,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 3: they still can fit the golf course well, you're getting
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: an ownership discount. And because it's a no cut event,
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 3: they also like fit the event really well well even
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 3: if they don't fit the course as well. So I
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 3: really like those guys in as I look through the
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: GPPs course, like a lot of these guys are already
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 3: just standing out his eyes.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: On your own play. So that's gonna be my leverage link.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like a couple things there, just in general
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: the concept, but also like then there's like certain something
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: reminded me of, like who was it last week somebody
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: posted about this guy it was like Brennan. I think
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: it was right. They're like, wow, Brennan's not a one
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: trick pony, and this week I think he's sixty four
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars and no one's talking about him at all.
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: But it's like, you know, it's not like he did
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: anything too crazy, but it's like just an example where
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: if you can find a guy that you like, like him,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: you know, twenty fourth last week, twenty eighth, the timeout
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: before that, twenty six the time before, like, he's had opportunities.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: So it's like it depends on who it is that's
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: about to play, but the concept if it gets you
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: there and then you can find a construction that it
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: fits well with, you could all even if some of
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: your guys are owned, like I think you mentioned like
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: Oberg and Young, Fine, they're gonna have some ownership attach them,
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: But are they gonna be attached to Brennan and guys
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: like that. No, So even when you are landing there,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: you can make it work. So I'll go to my lane.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: I was gonna, you know, do a couple I don't
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: want to commit to the first one just because then
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: I'm you know, it's it's only Wednesday after lunchtime basically,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: so for me, I don't want to come. I was
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: gonna say, Tommy Tartan up top just goes all too well,
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: and I do actually have interested in him, especially just
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: being one hundred bucks more than fits. He could still
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: end up my guy. But what I'm gonna definitely say,
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: and my two hundred dollars single entry, I'm gonna fade
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: the nine k range. Like, I know you just mentioned
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: a bunch of good guys in there and that you
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: can go that way, but I just think there's I
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: really have interest in one or two of the guys
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: above fits fits or above, and then I really like
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: that eight k range for guys that can win this tournament,
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: so the winner can come from there. And then also
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: it almost naturally puts me away from the chalk down low,
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: you know, not to purposely avoid it, but I also
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: could just land there because most of even like a
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: Norrin or a Stevens or any of those guys you
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: choose to like down there, most of them are going
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: to fit into all those different constructions. But a lot
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: of them will be in with at least one nine
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: K guy. That would be another way that I can alleviate.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: And he says, oh, you played that loser Chalk alex Nora,
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: and you told me he was shit because of this,
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: that and the other. I'm just I'm giving examples, and
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: I'm probably don't end up on him in this line
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: of being honest, but just noting it. Of that's a
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: way that you can still get away with that, because
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: that's how people always try and put chalk in the
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: same bucket. It's like this chalk versus that chalk. And
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: at the end of the day, if I got a
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: seven K guy that's somewhat choky, but then I'm completely
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: different in construction low owned guys throughout all that other stuff.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's just it's not who you play, it's
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: how you play him. That's where he fits in. At
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: the other side of it, if you've got a guy
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: off top that's chalky, you might not want to continue
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: that path down the bottom. So this is what you know,
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: Aaron said. Blakell mentions four guys. I knew that as
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: soon as he said it. I was like, Eh, that's that.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: But also I have one hundred and fifty lineups that
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: I'm playing elsewhere, so it's like it's I'm talking about
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: my two hundred dollars single entry that I'm playing this week.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: I've looked at multiple variations, not one yet has included
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: a nine K guy. Just it's the way I'm building.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: It's what I like this week is how I see
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: the slate coming to me. Everybody's lane is different and
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: that's the benefit and the point of it.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 3: Not only that, but like what we said didn't contradict
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 3: each other, because what I said was like, I'm looking
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: for guys who are long but also like fit everything
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 3: else that I'm looking for. I go look at Cam
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: Young and he's got one of the worst GPP scorps
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 3: on the slate because if his ownership, So even though
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: he fits the type of player that I'm looking for,
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to make that decision based on his
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: his GPP scorp. Yeah.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: I also think like Xander would fit your description quite fine.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: I can roll him. If you look at Fitzpatrick, what's
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: been the conversation around him? And this is another funny
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: one because like the short term stuff might not show
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: it as much, but like Fitzpatrick's been working on his
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: driving distance, He's been working on his irons and stuff
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: like that, so it's like different factors could all still
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: fall into it. It's just my preference for the week
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: for my main single entry. I've made a few different
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: variations just looking at things early, not committed to anything yet,
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: but none have involved a nik yet. But you know,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: like I said, Tommy Tartan could be a thing as well.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: I could definitely see that he doesn't fully fit your
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: mold of what you stated, but I said, like I
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: think would be Xander is the one that I kind
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: of like, and that's why I didn't want to commit
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: to Tommy up there. And I always take out this
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: stuff very seriously and so I love doing shows with them.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: That's why it's great to have this show every week
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: and get to chat through things because you catch on
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: to a little bit more while helping everybody else doing
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: it at the same time. But I had Henley in
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: my main event last week, so I know all the
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: tilt you were talking about of the first two days
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: of like make One Give It Back. He's like, there
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: are any way you could make two or three or
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: anything here?
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 3: Then please the really funny part was he then made
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: two in a row and then made two bogeys in
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 3: a row.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: It's like, god damn it.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: At least he was consistent with equal he's equal provider.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: But it was just brutal to watch that and the
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: like said to have him come all the way back
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: and get there. But that's that's part of the game
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: we play and why we love it so much. I
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: think again, yes, this week could be a week where
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: others are kind of leaving this in the dust and
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: they're focused on like coming off the Masters. It's this
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: week and then a partner's event, Like I said, from
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: a perspective, so come back for the Is the Cadillac
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: Championship a signature this year? It's like a new isn't
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: it like a new I don't even remember what one
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: it replaced, but it's a it's at Dural, I.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 3: Think, right, Yeah, it's just an additional signature event instead
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 3: of the Mexico Open at this time of year.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah that makes sense, all right, that's good man. Anything
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: else you want to talk about? The live news did
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: not come out or I would have held you up
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: like a few minutes longer just to try and discuss it.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: It sounds like they're, you know, having this big press
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: conference today and going to figure everything out. Then we'll
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: probably get an announcement. But yeah, we'll see what else
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: you want to talk about.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the only thing for me is, as as it
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 3: is typical of me, I have not remembered to drop
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 3: the Master's promo from last week. So if anyone still
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 3: wants to get in to the discord with fifty percent off,
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: Masters fifty is still going to work as a promo
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 3: code this week and doing some really cool stuff in there.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 3: Added contention performance score, which I talked about yesterday with
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 3: Pat if anyone wants to kind of go back and
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 3: watch the beginning of that show or just check it
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 3: out in the discord and and some MLB explosion analysis
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 3: props and pick him has been awesome. So it's a
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 3: great time to get in Master's fifty fifty percent off.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely get in. And I think the funny thing
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: is someone said earlier about like your contention scores, I
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: would have known that my Lowry wasn't in any of
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: my Milli Maker sweats, so I also knew Lowry would
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: not do anything on a Sunday Surprise Surprise I actually
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: don't think you made any in my showdown lineups either
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: because of that, because it's just brutal to watch him
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: on those days usually, But in general that is funny
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: now because people are gonna like have lineups in contention
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: on Sunday and be like, oh shit, I gotta wait
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: for those contention scores to drop the ce is my
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: lineup really as good as I think it is? And
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: then if you're not in there, they're gonna be thinking,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: oh man, this is really good, and then they don't
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: have to play them. Back to our round four conversation
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: of oh, I don't need to play him anymore. I've
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: already in contention and he's good winning contention. I liked
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: your point too. We still, of course left a Master's
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: promo up to let people get in. But the bigger
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: promo we've got going on right now at Shipped Nation.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: If you guys want to use it, the Stone two.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: Just drop the Stone version two point zero that is
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: completely interactive, the stage one of that. We've got a
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: lot of things coming with that tool, but I think
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: it's the best tool in DFS. People love using it.
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: It was a legacy piece brought over in the DJN
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: seventy five mergers, so shout out to our big guy
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: in the sky. But this will be fifty percent off
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: using code Stone two. And that's not just PGA only.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: You can get PGA with Sabersim. That's on the monthly
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: plans or All Access Core monthly plan where you can
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: get it for Basically it's twenty nine, thirty nine or
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: forty nine dollars depending on what you want and need.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: The best deal is the forty nine dollars all access
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: for your entire first month less than two bucks a day.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: Come out, check it out, getting the discord meet people.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: If you're with another site and you want to come
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: over and check it out, just shoot me a DM.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: We'll be able to get you set up there to
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: get some action that way as well. All right, cool, Well,
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be a guys. We appreciate you. Thank
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: you so much for watching for Alex and for myself
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: to Tag and Tambo. Good luck this week. Lead Ship
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: its