Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 10/5/2026 with Tommy Grisafi | Brazil Election Bolsonaro

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 10/5/2026 with Tommy Grisafi | Brazil Election Bolsonaro · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Happy Monday, everybody.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Tom McGrasafi, Ag Bull Media, Ag Bull Trading.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: You're listening to Ag Squawk.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the markets opened last night and uh traded both sides.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: We opened initially lower and traded higher.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to be an interesting week.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: All eyes on the Friday report.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: We had a Brazilian election.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: Who won?
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we kind of know.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: All that more in this morning's Ag Squawk.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for listening.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for joining.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: We are off and running.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: The markets are moving.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to start with the corn market real quick and talk a little bit about what the heck is going on.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: Markets as we look at them, corn's up two, beans are up 10.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean oil, the big winner.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: All the wheats up nine to ten, all that and more here.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: Well, what happened?
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we opened last night and we look at the things we normally look at.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: We look at weather and other markets, but the Brazilian election caught my eye, and we're going to talk about that a little bit.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: I want to thank plus 500.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: Plus 500 is who we use for quotes.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: I am looking at plus 500 quotes.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: I trade and execute from the T4 platform plus 500, a sponsor of this show.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: On Friday, cattle had a nice couple weeks up, but they showed that they're vulnerable to going down.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle looking at the market decease live cattle 221.50 down 170.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: Looking at NOVE feeder cattle, 331.15 down 520.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs 7013 up 120.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: Now hogs had a bounce, but folks, the hog producers I talked to, they really need a little bit more than that.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: Meals high, corn's relatively high compared to what they're used to paying.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: And they're just not getting a lot for the product.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you're out there and you're in the business, the dynamics of the cattle market have changed incredibly from input cost.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, diesel fuel is a huge part.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: These little piggies and cattle just don't show up somewhere without moving.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: And with all the plants that have closed lately and the dynamics of the uh processors changing, the economics of cattle and livestock uh look a lot different.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I have to ask you, did you catch the video on Sunday?
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: Jim and I met actually Saturday afternoon, and we did Weesmeyer's Perspectives, USDA Corn Stock Shock and Harvest Pressure.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be honest with you, that video is still free.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: But in the next few weeks, Jim is going behind the paywall.
• 2:57
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• 3:01
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• 3:04
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• 3:08
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• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: If you're a client of Agble Trading or Agble Intel, you'll still receive the video.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I have to be honest with you, not everyone who likes what we do here wants what Jim does.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: Not everyone who Jim's crowd doesn't necessarily want to talk corn, beans, wheat, and cattle and options.
• 3:41
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• 3:42
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• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: We truly believe that good high-quality information is for everyone.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: And we want to make sure as the midterm elections come up that you're still dialed into what's going on.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: Speaking of premium, Jed met with Mr.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: Tom Leffler on Friday.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: He does the show almost every Friday.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: This is for premium accounts and Intel subscribers.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: Tom Leffler, Leffler Commodities.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, that video was texted and emailed out this weekend.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: We'd love to see on the premium side, and we could talk more about that later.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: All right, on to the weather.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: What are we looking at?
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the weather looks like it's starting to open up here in the Midwest.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna have a big harvest weekend, or we may have had a big harvest weekend, and we're going to continue to have an aggressive harvest the next 10 to 15 days.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: Now there are some chances of rain.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: I guess people's biggest concern is that uh with all the rain out there in Iowa, and no one liked to see a big wind or anything.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: And then we shift our eyes to South America.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: Here we have a map, you could see lighter colors, darker colors, and some big it big rains in parts of the South.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see if those hit.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: And where are they on the cycle, right?
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: Do they need rain?
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: Do they need a window to plant?
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: All that'll be watched.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I'll tell you with the current weather system, how wild it's been, people will really be watching South American weather.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: What I want to talk to you about today is open interest and the funds.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: The funds can make you folks, and the funds can lose you.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: The funds are starting to exit corn.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: On Friday, we had the commitment of traders here.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: You could see, I'm gonna blow that up a little bit.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: You can actually see that chart.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: And what we have there is open interest, uh, what the net position is, who's short and who's long.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: And when the funds buy corn, it's so much fun.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: That's how we got up to 550.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: And that's also how we got down to 495 on Friday, is that the funds are starting to get out.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: What's concerning, and it's something we've always known, is the funds had such a big length that the bull needs to be fed every day.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: And the bull didn't get fed the last week, they definitely didn't get fed on that last report.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: There's another report on Friday, and that's gonna have traders jittery.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: A couple ideas here were up this morning.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: If we continue to go up, you may see some folks make some more cash sales, you may see folks start to protect into that carry.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: If soybeans can make it back to 13, corn can get to 510, 515.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: Folks might say, Hey, I'm gonna sell the grain out in March, or I'm gonna here.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: You may see them adjust positions.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: What's that fund length look like in soybeans?
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: I have that here.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: You know, if you didn't know, I just flipped the chart, you'd say it looks like the same thing.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: The funds they had some length, got out of a little bit, put on some length, got a big long going up uh up there at 250,000, but they're starting to get out.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: Other markets funds have length is soybean meal, and they're mixed in the wheat, but the the two biggest high trading volume products are the corn and the beans, and that's what really can be volatile.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: Last night we had a little volatility, we opened up higher in beans, then went lower immediately, and then I pulled up something I haven't looked at in a long time, and that'd be under the breaking news category.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: What the heck is going on in Brazil?
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: We have an election in Brazil, we think we have a winner, and it could be a little bit of an upset.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: And I started watching the Brazil currency, and with that, I had to go to the old chat GPT and say, if the currency's up, what's that mean for American beans?
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: If the currency's down, what's that mean?
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: And old chat explained it all to me, but pretty much as the Brazilian real moves, we may do more business here, doing just like our currency is moving.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: And so as our dollar has recently wet up, that's better for you know exports.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: And as the dollar goes down, they may hurt exports.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the same thing happens, but we have to think of it in Brazilian terms.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: I looked at the markets I was up late last night working trading.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: It was a pretty quiet night.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely people are looking at uh Brazil election, American weather, South American weather, and just overall money flow.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: Looking a couple other markets I do want to talk about.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: Crude oil is down a dollar, and you're seeing uh the stock market a little mixed.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: It was up last night and starting to come down.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: Golden Silver had a good night.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: Other than that, I didn't see a lot.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: Some strength in soybean oil, and soybean oil stocks missed badly at nine pounds below minus 5.1 year over year.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: Oil market is tighter than the record crush implies.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean oils had a big sell-off.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: It may be coming back.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: Moving along here, let's talk about economic data.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: This is our calendar for Monday, October 5th.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: I can't believe it's already October.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: SP Global Services, PMI, 845, ISM Services Index at 9 a.m.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: Export and inspections at 10 a.m.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: and crop progress at 3.
• 9:03
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• 9:05
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• 9:07
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• 9:11
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• 9:12
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• 9:17
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• 9:19
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• 9:21
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• 9:25
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• 9:30
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• 9:37
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• 9:44
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• 9:47
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• 9:49
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• 9:50
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• 9:53
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• 10:00
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• 10:03
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• 10:20
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• 10:37
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• 10:39
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• 10:41
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• 10:44
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• 10:45
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• 10:47
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• 11:05
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• 11:08
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• 11:10
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• 11:15
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• 11:17
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• 11:21
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• 11:27
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• 11:29
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• 11:33
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• 11:34
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• 11:35
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• 11:37
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• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: With that, I do want to talk about a little bit.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_00: We have a big report on Friday, and all eyes on what the USDA tells us that corn yield is.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: We'll have estimates out to clients here in a little bit.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: But as we know, with that last number, it came in way above any of the estimates.
• 12:01
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• 12:12
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• 12:21
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• 12:22
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• 12:24
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• 12:31
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• 12:31
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• 12:34
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• 12:37
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• 12:37
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• 12:39
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• 12:41
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• 13:14
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• 13:19
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