Latest / Relatively Stable / We Are All Watching the Same Shoreline
Transcript
- 0:11We are all watching the same shoreline on drought,
- 0:17water bankruptcy,
- 0:19and the pond at our farm.
- 0:25SPEAKER_00: Days before the rain was scheduled to start,
- 0:29clients began messaging me to ask what would happen if it
- 0:33rained during their
- 0:34SPEAKER_00: weekend sessions.
- 0:37In the upstate of South Carolina and beyond,
- 0:46we are living in a historic drought.
- 0:49SPEAKER_00: Most people have no idea what's happening,
- 0:52SPEAKER_00: and these people are smart,
- 0:54SPEAKER_00: savvy,
- 0:55SPEAKER_00: compassionate,
- 0:56SPEAKER_00: and aware,
- 0:57SPEAKER_00: but they live indoors and buy their food from a store.
- 1:00SPEAKER_00: Their water comes from a tap,
- 1:03SPEAKER_00: And while they notice their lawn is browning,
- 1:05SPEAKER_00: they assume it's just the South working its weird warm weather dance.
- 1:11SPEAKER_00: I'm no better than them, but I work outside every day.
- 1:16SPEAKER_00: Green and growing grass is money credited back into our hay budget.
- 1:21SPEAKER_00: Lawn seed equals food.
- 1:24SPEAKER_00: I'll save my whining about golf courses for another day,
- 1:28SPEAKER_00: but I'm here this week to talk to you about what the land is saying.
- 1:32SPEAKER_00: because the way our lives are designed makes it easy to miss.
- 1:37SPEAKER_00: We have a magical pond at Lavender Hill.
- 1:41It's two acres of underground spring water stocked and tended
- 1:45by a previous owner
- 1:47SPEAKER_00: about 30 years ago.
- 1:49So it's a relatively recent addition to this land's two
- 1:53centuries of farming.
- 1:55SPEAKER_00: I've studied the USDA surveys from the pond's construction
- 2:00SPEAKER_00: And even though my world revolves around checking water troughs,
- 2:04it took the maps to drive home to me that all these picturesque
- 2:09bodies of water you
- 2:10see dotted around fields are backup water to supply livestock
- 2:15in years of drought.
- 2:18I found this handwritten note on the original planning draft
- 2:22for the pond.
- 2:23SPEAKER_00: It says,
- 2:25This pond will supply livestock needs in years that do not
- 2:29reflect the severity of
- 2:31SPEAKER_00: a 50 year drought,
- 2:33SPEAKER_00: but it will theoretically go dry during a 50 year drought.
- 2:40SPEAKER_00: Across the street,
- 2:41our neighbors have a large pond that I've stared at all winter
- 2:45as I sit at the
- 2:46SPEAKER_00: table and write.
- 2:48SPEAKER_00: The spring foliage is beginning to block the view
- 2:51But throughout the cold months,
- 2:53my mother and I worried over the dropping shoreline.
- 2:57SPEAKER_00: Does it seem down today?
- 2:58SPEAKER_00: She would ask as we judged the visibility of a downed tree at the edge.
- 3:03SPEAKER_00: The tree became our water gauge.
- 3:06SPEAKER_00: We came up with wild stories,
- 3:08SPEAKER_00: fearing that they were draining the pond on purpose,
- 3:11as if they planned to sell the land and the water was a
- 3:14liability for developers.
- 3:17SPEAKER_00: Finally, we just asked them,
- 3:20SPEAKER_00: The waterline was steadily shrinking because of the drought.
- 3:24SPEAKER_00: I'm assuming their pond is fed by a creek or another surface waterway.
- 3:28The only thing keeping our pond filled is the underground
- 3:31spring that feeds it,
- 3:33SPEAKER_00: but recently I've seen the shoreline dropping.
- 3:36The neighbors were deeply worried about how low their pond had
- 3:40shrunk over the winter.
- 3:42SPEAKER_00: A 50-year drought is one thing,
- 3:45but what we're experiencing in the upstate of South Carolina is
- 3:48something else
- 3:49SPEAKER_00: entirely.
- 3:50SPEAKER_00: This region is a temperate rain forest,
- 3:53SPEAKER_00: and spring is historically our wet season,
- 3:56drenching our mountain water reservoirs and soaking the ground
- 4:00so spring planting
- 4:01SPEAKER_00: will take root.
- 4:03SPEAKER_00: In my not too distant memory, the area where I live and work was rural.
- 4:08SPEAKER_00: Old farmers lived and worked by the seasons,
- 4:10SPEAKER_00: the rainfall,
- 4:11SPEAKER_00: and variations in the elements from year to year.
- 4:15SPEAKER_00: Now we plant subdivisions in every old field,
- 4:18and for most people drought only affects how green and lush
- 4:22their yards are.
- 4:24SPEAKER_00: Few understand the severity of the drought we're in.
- 4:27SPEAKER_00: The scale, a record-breaking drought.
- 4:34The United States Drought Monitor was unveiled at a White House
- 4:38press conference in
- 4:40SPEAKER_00: 1999,
- 4:41a joint effort between the National Drought Mitigation Center
- 4:45at the University of
- 4:46SPEAKER_00: Nebraska-Lincoln,
- 4:48SPEAKER_00: NOAA,
- 4:49and the USDA this type of venture had never been accomplished
- 4:53before taking the
- 4:55scattered varied science of dryness and rendering it into a
- 4:59single unified weekly
- 5:01map that could move policy trigger federal response and create
- 5:05a visual aid to
- 5:06simplify the numbers showing what the land was or wasn't
- 5:10receiving from the sky
- 5:13SPEAKER_00: before 1999
- 5:16SPEAKER_00: Localized monitoring existed in a piecemeal form,
- 5:20but this effort was a standardized national collection that
- 5:24blended hard data with
- 5:25SPEAKER_00: boots on the ground observation.
- 5:28It was designed to bridge the gap between what instruments
- 5:31measured and what
- 5:32SPEAKER_00: farmers already knew in their bones.
- 5:35SPEAKER_00: It's a standard tool now and it's used to trigger a response in crises,
- 5:40a database that pushes the government to acknowledge when
- 5:43there's not enough water.
- 5:45Most people have never heard of this initiative Most people
- 5:49don't need to know what
- 5:50these groups do until they do I didn't know the map existed
- 5:55until I sat down to
- 5:56write this piece I digested these dates and numbers and I
- 6:01thought how curious that
- 6:02our pond at Lavender Hill was born the year the United States
- 6:06Drought Monitor was
- 6:07SPEAKER_00: developed The turn of the millennium was when I bought Max,
- 6:11SPEAKER_00: my little red-headed quarter horse
- 6:13and launched myself from a desk and into the world of building
- 6:16a horse farm.
- 6:18SPEAKER_00: There was a drought the summer I quit my real jobs to clean stalls.
- 6:22I remember thinking my body couldn't take the heat and later
- 6:25being amazed that I had adapted.
- 6:29SPEAKER_00: Currently,
- 6:29SPEAKER_00: the U.S.
- 6:30Drought Monitor shows the worst ever recorded drought for the
- 6:33southeastern states.
- 6:36SPEAKER_00: It is the largest area of severe drought since the map began.
- 6:41It's the only comparison available because in 25 years of
- 6:44weekly measurement,
- 6:46SPEAKER_00: the map has never looked like this.
- 6:50Back even further past the maps and into the raw historical
- 6:54record,
- 6:54it gets even worse.
- 6:56SPEAKER_00: Georgia,
- 6:57SPEAKER_00: North Carolina,
- 6:57and South Carolina have just lived through the driest September
- 7:01through March since
- 7:03SPEAKER_00: 1895.
- 7:06SPEAKER_00: Like its recent antithesis, the floodwaters of Hurricane Helene,
- 7:10SPEAKER_00: This drought goes way past recent memory.
- 7:14SPEAKER_00: This is not just the driest season on record in a generation,
- 7:18SPEAKER_00: but the driest in 130 years of keeping local records.
- 7:24My hometown and state have not seen a period this dry since the
- 7:28time the land was
- 7:29worked by mule and the people who farmed it watched the sky
- 7:33because from the clouds
- 7:35SPEAKER_00: came their downfall or their salvation.
- 7:39In my daily life and the paragraphs I text to my clients who
- 7:43are hoping for fair
- 7:45SPEAKER_00: weather in the hour they're visiting me to hang out with the horses,
- 7:49the drought lives in the crispy green grass that isn't growing
- 7:53and holds no
- 7:54SPEAKER_00: nutrients for forage.
- 7:57The drought descended last year when hay farmers should have
- 8:01been bailing a last
- 8:02SPEAKER_00: cutting to get livestock through the winter.
- 8:05SPEAKER_00: That didn't happen.
- 8:07SPEAKER_00: We crossed our fingers,
- 8:08SPEAKER_00: knocked wood,
- 8:09SPEAKER_00: and spat on the ground,
- 8:10hoping that our new hay guy would have enough round bales of
- 8:14rye to see our herd
- 8:15SPEAKER_00: through the winter.
- 8:17We rolled the last round bale out to the horses in the pasture
- 8:21beside the arena last week.
- 8:25SPEAKER_00: Drought-hardy weeds are flourishing.
- 8:27SPEAKER_00: The grass is sparse.
- 8:29SPEAKER_00: Clover is having a literal field day.
- 8:32SPEAKER_00: I like clover.
- 8:33SPEAKER_00: I might plant more as we get to know these fields.
- 8:36SPEAKER_00: Through the icy winter,
- 8:37I longed for spring when the pastures would burst with grasses
- 8:42and we could walk
- 8:42the fields with an agent from the Agricultural Extension
- 8:46Service and make a plan to
- 8:48SPEAKER_00: seed new grass and rotate fields.
- 8:51Now I'm just longing for a good,
- 8:53soaking,
- 8:54drenching rain that will bathe the ground surface.
- 8:58SPEAKER_00: We're past the point of worrying about the underground water tables.
- 9:01SPEAKER_00: We need a band-aid before we can hope for a long-term solution.
- 9:06SPEAKER_00: Hay production is at a halt for the first cutting.
- 9:09SPEAKER_00: We're not a drought-savvy region.
- 9:11SPEAKER_00: Farmers don't irrigate their fields in upstate South Carolina.
- 9:15The ground across most of the region has been running 8 to 16
- 9:19inches below where it
- 9:20SPEAKER_00: should be over the nine months since last July.
- 9:24SPEAKER_00: Since the beginning of 2026, we have been 4 to 8 inches short.
- 9:30SPEAKER_00: That is not a problem that the next good rain fixes.
- 9:33SPEAKER_00: That is not something a wet week erases.
- 9:37SPEAKER_00: The land is behind in a way that accumulates.
- 9:41Every dry day,
- 9:42borrowing against a debt the forecast doesn't have the means to
- 9:46repay.
- 9:50Too much or not enough What would it take to correct the water
- 9:56deficit in my little
- 9:57SPEAKER_00: corner of the world?
- 9:59SPEAKER_00: In short, the slim chance of a correction is sobering.
- 10:03A full drought recovery typically requires 6 to 12 inches of
- 10:07above normal rainfall
- 10:09SPEAKER_00: delivered over several weeks.
- 10:12And those numbers reflect extra precipitation on top of
- 10:15whatever normal rainfall
- 10:17SPEAKER_00: the region should be receiving.
- 10:19SPEAKER_00: As we move into summer,
- 10:21SPEAKER_00: a time when the south is accustomed to seasonal drought,
- 10:25SPEAKER_00: any rain that falls right now is subject to high evaporative demand,
- 10:30SPEAKER_00: which limits its actual benefit.
- 10:33and evaporative demand is currently drawing down reservoirs
- 10:37already dealing with low inflows.
- 10:39Spring and summer heat means a meaningful portion of whatever
- 10:43rain falls will
- 10:44SPEAKER_00: evaporate before it can soak in and do any restorative work underground.
- 10:50December through March is historically when the southeast
- 10:53recharges its water
- 10:55SPEAKER_00: resources in soils,
- 10:57SPEAKER_00: stream flows,
- 10:58SPEAKER_00: and groundwater.
- 10:59SPEAKER_00: A recharge didn't happen this year.
- 11:01meaning the region is entering its warm season with less stored
- 11:05water than normal.
- 11:07SPEAKER_00: Even if rainfall were to return to near normal values,
- 11:11the drought may linger given the accumulated deficits of the
- 11:15past nine months.
- 11:17SPEAKER_00: And given the severity of this deficit,
- 11:19SPEAKER_00: the driest on record,
- 11:21many South Carolina regions will likely remain in drought
- 11:24status throughout the
- 11:25SPEAKER_00: duration of summer this year,
- 11:27SPEAKER_00: regardless of any late coming spring rainfall.
- 11:31A single good rain or even a good week of rain doesn't fix the
- 11:35drought we're experiencing.
- 11:37SPEAKER_00: What's needed is a prolonged,
- 11:39SPEAKER_00: consistent return to above normal precipitation over months or,
- 11:45SPEAKER_00: as older farmers in this region have long understood,
- 11:47SPEAKER_00: a tropical system.
- 11:51A hurricane or tropical storm delivering slow,
- 11:54soaking rain over several days
- 11:57has historically been the only thing capable of breaking a
- 12:00drought of this depth in
- 12:02SPEAKER_00: the southeast.
- 12:03SPEAKER_00: But like the current drought's historical rarity,
- 12:06these mountains and foothills are still bracing from the recent
- 12:09memory of Hurricane
- 12:11SPEAKER_00: Helene.
- 12:12SPEAKER_00: We either have too much rain, which is deeply destructive, or not enough.
- 12:19SPEAKER_00: Red and the Ledger
- 12:23While I have watched the shorelines of my neighbor's pond creep
- 12:27inward this winter,
- 12:29the United Nations met in January and declared that the world
- 12:33had entered an era of
- 12:35SPEAKER_00: global water bankruptcy.
- 12:38SPEAKER_00: A crisis implies a temporary shock that we'll bounce back from.
- 12:43SPEAKER_00: Water stress describes high pressure that is still reversible.
- 12:48But the scientists at the United Nations University Institute
- 12:52for Water Environment
- 12:54SPEAKER_00: and Health chose a word that we can all understand bankruptcy.
- 13:00SPEAKER_00: We're in a global post crisis condition.
- 13:04The damage has accumulated past the point where natural systems
- 13:08that hold and
- 13:09SPEAKER_00: replenish water cannot bounce back to what they were.
- 13:15SPEAKER_00: Kava Madani,
- 13:16SPEAKER_00: the director of that institute and the lead author of the report,
- 13:20SPEAKER_00: described the current state of water stores like an accountant.
- 13:24Nature provides every region with water income from rain and
- 13:27snow that accumulate
- 13:29SPEAKER_00: from the sky and from most of human history we spent within our means.
- 13:34SPEAKER_00: Then we began drawing from savings.
- 13:37SPEAKER_00: Then we drew from aquifers that had taken centuries to fill.
- 13:41Then we drained the wetlands Then we redirected the rivers Then
- 13:45we built cities and
- 13:46deserts and watered imported crops grown in land not meant for
- 13:50farming We've cashed
- 13:53SPEAKER_00: in our savings In finance,
- 13:55SPEAKER_00: Madani said,
- 13:57SPEAKER_00: when you spend more than you earn for too long,
- 13:59you go bankrupt We have done exactly that with our water
- 14:02checking and savings
- 14:04accounts More than half of the planet's large lakes have lost
- 14:09water since 1990
- 14:11SPEAKER_00: 70% of major aquifers are in long-term decline.
- 14:16An area of wetlands nearly the size of the European Union has
- 14:20been erased from the
- 14:21SPEAKER_00: earth in 50 years.
- 14:24SPEAKER_00: Global glaciers have lost 30% of their mass since 1970.
- 14:29SPEAKER_00: Four billion people,
- 14:31SPEAKER_00: roughly half the population of this planet,
- 14:34SPEAKER_00: experience severe water scarcity for at least one month every year.
- 14:39Between 2022 and 2023,
- 14:421.8 billion people were living under active drought conditions.
- 14:48SPEAKER_00: The cost of drought impacts globally runs to $307 billion annually.
- 14:56SPEAKER_00: Three billion people and more than half of all global food production are
- 15:01concentrated in areas where water storage is already declining
- 15:05or unstable.
- 15:07SPEAKER_00: These are not projections.
- 15:08SPEAKER_00: They are not worst case scenarios from a distant future.
- 15:12SPEAKER_00: They are current conditions.
- 15:15SPEAKER_00: We've heard the names of the places that are being impacted first.
- 15:19Kabul is on its way to becoming the first modern city to fully
- 15:23run out of water.
- 15:25Mexico City is sinking into the ground at a rate of around 20
- 15:28inches a year because
- 15:30the vast aquifer beneath its streets is being pumped out faster
- 15:34than it can
- 15:34SPEAKER_00: recover.
- 15:36SPEAKER_00: The cities of Jakarta, Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh City are doing the same.
- 15:42SPEAKER_00: In the American Southwest,
- 15:43the states that depend on the Colorado River are in continuous
- 15:47legal and political
- 15:48conflict over how to divide water that no longer exists in the
- 15:53quantities the
- 15:54SPEAKER_00: original agreements assumed.
- 15:57The river's sharing contracts were written for a river that no
- 16:01longer exists
- 16:03SPEAKER_00: They're working from agreements built on a world that no longer exists,
- 16:07SPEAKER_00: governing a resource that has permanently diminished.
- 16:11SPEAKER_00: The UN report is direct.
- 16:13SPEAKER_00: Many of these systems cannot return to their historical baselines.
- 16:17SPEAKER_00: We're not experiencing a gap that a wet year will fix.
- 16:20SPEAKER_00: For many of the world's water systems,
- 16:22SPEAKER_00: what existed before is simply over,
- 16:25SPEAKER_00: and what exists now is the new permanent condition.
- 16:30SPEAKER_00: Drought impacts cost the world $307 billion every year,
- 16:35but the UN report notes that even financial markets are not
- 16:39pricing in water risk
- 16:41SPEAKER_00: at the scale the data demands.
- 16:43The world powers are handling the water deficit as a pool of
- 16:47temporary crises,
- 16:49SPEAKER_00: each threat handled in isolation without considering the whole.
- 16:53SPEAKER_00: As I sit here typing and watching the neighbors pond through the trees,
- 16:57SPEAKER_00: I think about the USDA survey stating that our spring fed two acres will
- 17:02SPEAKER_00: theoretically go dry during a 50 year drought.
- 17:06Before moving here I never knew that ponds were managed by the
- 17:10USDA and the Army
- 17:12SPEAKER_00: Corps of Engineers.
- 17:14SPEAKER_00: I never knew what it took to make a water reservoir.
- 17:18The neighbor's pond is shrinking because the surface water that
- 17:21feeds it is not
- 17:22SPEAKER_00: being replenished.
- 17:23Our pond is deep because of what is stored below the ground
- 17:27rather than what falls
- 17:28SPEAKER_00: from above,
- 17:29SPEAKER_00: but eventually the invisible will be made visible.
- 17:32SPEAKER_00: I'm watching the shoreline move.
- 17:34SPEAKER_00: I'm seeing the margin narrow.
- 17:38The United Nations did not issue its report about the pond at
- 17:42Lavender Hill.
- 17:43SPEAKER_00: It details Kabul and Mexico City,
- 17:45SPEAKER_00: the Colorado River,
- 17:47and the aquifers beneath cities where two billion people live
- 17:50on ground that is
- 17:51SPEAKER_00: slowly collapsing beneath them.
- 17:53SPEAKER_00: But the mechanism is the same.
- 17:56SPEAKER_00: The language of bankruptcy,
- 17:57SPEAKER_00: spending what cannot be replaced,
- 18:00SPEAKER_00: drawing down savings that took centuries to accumulate,
- 18:03SPEAKER_00: describes what I can see from the edge of my own property.
- 18:08SPEAKER_00: We are all at every scale watching the same shoreline.
- 18:16SPEAKER_00: The land remembers us back.
- 18:19SPEAKER_00: It rained on Saturday.
- 18:21SPEAKER_00: We hadn't received the ground-drenching,
- 18:24SPEAKER_00: debt-erasing rain we needed,
- 18:26SPEAKER_00: but it rained during lessons,
- 18:27SPEAKER_00: and nobody melted.
- 18:29SPEAKER_00: The horses were just fine.
- 18:31SPEAKER_00: Well,
- 18:32SPEAKER_00: the boys crowded into their shelter in the cemetery field,
- 18:35SPEAKER_00: angling for the best cover like little slinking sharks.
- 18:39SPEAKER_00: We were glad for every drop that fell.
- 18:43SPEAKER_00: When the rain finally comes after a dry spell,
- 18:46SPEAKER_00: you don't run for cover,
- 18:47SPEAKER_00: well,
- 18:47SPEAKER_00: unless you're in the boys' field.
- 18:50SPEAKER_00: You stand in it.
- 18:52SPEAKER_00: I did my twilight fence check as a slow mist continued to fall.
- 18:57The light was soft and hazy around the edges,
- 19:00mist weaving through the drought tolerant weeds.
- 19:04The grass smelled alive,
- 19:05and as I walked,
- 19:07I watched the blades visibly start greening.
- 19:11SPEAKER_00: Along the way, I passed through an oak grove.
- 19:14Each tree carried a distinct scent,
- 19:17like an olfactory record of its history.
- 19:20SPEAKER_00: I stopped and buried my nose in wet bark.
- 19:24Though the trees are old and reaching,
- 19:26there's scent caught in my body like recalling a memory.
- 19:30SPEAKER_00: I was flooded with the full sensory pull of deja vu.
- 19:36SPEAKER_00: All those scents contain chemistry.
- 19:39SPEAKER_00: Rainfall carries nitrogen from the atmosphere directly to the ground.
- 19:44SPEAKER_00: It's free fertilizer delivered from the sky.
- 19:47SPEAKER_00: A supply chain that can't be damaged by shipping lane closures.
- 19:52SPEAKER_00: I say this because the Strait of Hormuz,
- 19:55the narrow passage through which a significant portion of the
- 19:58world's fertilizer
- 19:59SPEAKER_00: supply moves,
- 20:00SPEAKER_00: has been disrupted and the cost and availability of synthetic nitrogen is
- 20:06astronomically increasing the cost of fertilizer that domestic
- 20:10farmers rely on.
- 20:12SPEAKER_00: Rainfall is not just water, it is nutrition.
- 20:16the most ancient and elegant delivery system on earth and
- 20:20humans have tried forever
- 20:21to replicate it and engineer around it we always come up short
- 20:27the oak grove in
- 20:28this cemetery pasture has been receiving rain for longer than
- 20:31this country has been
- 20:33keeping records it was there before the pond was dug it was
- 20:37there before the
- 20:38SPEAKER_00: subdivisions began to grow within the fields
- 20:41It was there when the people buried in that pasture was still
- 20:44alive and working
- 20:46SPEAKER_00: this land by hand and watching the same sky I watch now,
- 20:51SPEAKER_00: hoping for rain.
- 20:56Gen X Flashback 1999 was the year the pond at Lavender Hill was
- 21:03excavated and the
- 21:05SPEAKER_00: U.S.
- 21:05SPEAKER_00: Drought Monitor was established.
- 21:08SPEAKER_00: It was also the year my grandfather,
- 21:10a man who had lived through enough history to know that the
- 21:13future was not
- 21:14SPEAKER_00: guaranteed,
- 21:15SPEAKER_00: cashed out his investments,
- 21:17SPEAKER_00: bought a farm,
- 21:18SPEAKER_00: and started stacking supplies.
- 21:21SPEAKER_00: Y2K was coming, and he was not going to be caught unprepared.
- 21:26SPEAKER_00: He had a different last name than I did, so I used him as a case study.
- 21:30He was a character and a feature story about the upcoming turn
- 21:33of the millennium.
- 21:35SPEAKER_00: For the fortunes my grandfather made in the radio industry,
- 21:39SPEAKER_00: he trusted the land more than the inventions built on it.
- 21:43He was preparing for the collapse of the digital infrastructure
- 21:47on which the modern
- 21:48SPEAKER_00: world had come to depend,
- 21:50SPEAKER_00: and he wasn't wrong to take it seriously.
- 21:53SPEAKER_00: He was also,
- 21:54SPEAKER_00: as it turned out,
- 21:55SPEAKER_00: preparing for something that didn't arrive in the form he expected.
- 22:00SPEAKER_00: The computers didn't fail at midnight on New Year's Eve 1999.
- 22:03SPEAKER_00: They kept going.
- 22:05SPEAKER_00: They multiplied.
- 22:07SPEAKER_00: People laughed at their folly and went back to their lives,
- 22:10SPEAKER_00: their lawns,
- 22:11SPEAKER_00: and their water taps,
- 22:12SPEAKER_00: all of which were soon to be controlled by even more computers.
- 22:16And the running of these machines has become one of the
- 22:19quietest claims on water
- 22:21SPEAKER_00: that no one anticipated or prepared for.
- 22:25In 1999,
- 22:26data center water consumption was so negligible that nobody was
- 22:30tracking it.
- 22:31SPEAKER_00: That is not the case now.
- 22:33American data centers consume an estimated 449 million gallons
- 22:38of water every day.
- 22:40The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory projects that figure
- 22:44could double or
- 22:45SPEAKER_00: quadruple by 2028.
- 22:48Data centers in Texas alone are expected to use as much as 399
- 22:53billion gallons of
- 22:54SPEAKER_00: water by 2030,
- 22:56SPEAKER_00: enough to lower Lake Mead by more than 16 feet in a single year.
- 23:01Two-thirds of all American data centers built since 2022 have
- 23:06been sited in areas
- 23:07SPEAKER_00: already classified as high water stress regions.
- 23:12Scientists at the University of California Riverside estimate
- 23:17that every 100-word
- 23:19SPEAKER_00: AI prompt consumes roughly one bottle of water.
- 23:23SPEAKER_00: Every search, every query, every generated paragraph.
- 23:29SPEAKER_00: My grandfather was afraid the machines would stop.
- 23:33He couldn't have known that what we'd need to worry about was
- 23:36the cost of keeping them running.
- 23:39SPEAKER_00: 26 years later,
- 23:40as I watched my neighbor's pond shrink and I rolled the last
- 23:44big rye bale out to
- 23:45SPEAKER_00: our fields,
- 23:47I realized that my grandfather was not wrong about society
- 23:50being vulnerable.
- 23:51SPEAKER_00: He just had the timeline wrong.
- 23:54The moment when the systems we depend on reveal themselves as
- 23:57more fragile than we
- 23:59SPEAKER_00: thought isn't coming as a digital glitch at the stroke of midnight.
- 24:03It's slinking here slowly and the drop of shorelines,
- 24:07aquifers,
- 24:08and rain gauges.
- 24:11The difference between 1999 and now is that in 1999 we were
- 24:16afraid of a specific date.
- 24:18We could see it coming on the calendar,
- 24:20prepare for it,
- 24:21and exhale when it passed.
- 24:23SPEAKER_00: What we are living inside now has no date on the calendar.
- 24:27It's been arriving for decades in increments too small to feel
- 24:31on a normal day,
- 24:32SPEAKER_00: which is exactly why so many smart,
- 24:35SPEAKER_00: caring,
- 24:35aware people have no idea until perhaps right now that we are
- 24:40in the driest stretch
- 24:41SPEAKER_00: this region has seen since Grover Cleveland was president.
- 24:48SPEAKER_00: Field Notes
- 24:51SPEAKER_00: I'm not here to fill you with doom.
- 24:54SPEAKER_00: We just need to be more aware and start seeing where we can take action.
- 25:00SPEAKER_00: The more I answered clients weather questions this week,
- 25:03SPEAKER_00: the more I realized that I have the luxury of perspective.
- 25:07I live and work outside every single day and I have no other
- 25:11choice but to pay
- 25:12SPEAKER_00: attention to what's happening on the land.
- 25:15SPEAKER_00: Deeper than that, the move from the old farm to the new
- 25:19SPEAKER_00: has driven home the difference between healthy soil and thirsty ground.
- 25:24As I wear a path on the walk to the boys' field,
- 25:28I know in my bones that the land is not done.
- 25:31SPEAKER_00: It just needs us to listen.
- 25:35SPEAKER_00: The oak grove is not done.
- 25:37The underground spring that keeps our pond full when the
- 25:40surface water is gone is
- 25:42SPEAKER_00: still moving,
- 25:43SPEAKER_00: still cold,
- 25:44SPEAKER_00: still finding its way through rocks.
- 25:47The clover that took over the pasture while the grass went
- 25:50sparse is fixing
- 25:51nitrogen into the soil on its own without any help from humans
- 25:56the way it's done
- 25:57since before there were farms here or fences or anyone keeping
- 26:00records of the
- 26:01rainfall The nitrogen the rain delivered on Saturday is already
- 26:05in the ground It's
- 26:07raining more this morning The natural world is not waiting for
- 26:11us to solve the
- 26:12SPEAKER_00: water problem
- 26:14SPEAKER_00: The earth craves balance, even when we're standing in its way.
- 26:19SPEAKER_00: The seasons work through the constraints that they've been given,
- 26:22finding a path through and converting what's available into
- 26:26what's needed.
- 26:27It's been doing this through every drought in the 130 years of
- 26:31records and in the
- 26:32SPEAKER_00: thousands of years before anyone was keeping them.
- 26:35SPEAKER_00: The question is not whether the land can adapt.
- 26:39SPEAKER_00: The land will outlast all of us.
- 26:42The question is whether we are paying attention enough to adapt
- 26:45alongside it.
- 26:48SPEAKER_00: My grandfather's instincts were not wrong.
- 26:50The right response to a fragile system is to pay attention and
- 26:54to get to know your
- 26:55SPEAKER_00: land and water.
- 26:57It's up to us to figure out where the spring is and how deep
- 27:00the aquifer runs beneath our feet.
- 27:03The right response is to understand the grasses and save your
- 27:07hay and ask your
- 27:09neighbors what's happening with their shoreline instead of
- 27:12making up stories about
- 27:13SPEAKER_00: why it's dropping.
- 27:15SPEAKER_00: And when the rain finally comes,
- 27:17SPEAKER_00: even if it's not enough,
- 27:19we can stand in it for a minute instead of rushing beneath the
- 27:22roof and viewing it
- 27:23SPEAKER_00: as an inconvenience.
- 27:25You can bury your nose in the wet bark of an oak tree that has
- 27:29survived everything
- 27:30SPEAKER_00: that humans and weather have done to it for longer than any record shows.
- 27:35SPEAKER_00: You breathe in.
- 27:36SPEAKER_00: You smell the nitrogen.
- 27:38SPEAKER_00: You feel the ground receive what the sky is offering.
- 27:42SPEAKER_00: And then you go back inside and tell people what you saw.
- 27:47SPEAKER_00: Because we're all living on the same shoreline.
- 27:51But some of us just happen to be standing close enough to the
- 27:55water to hear the waves.
- 27:59SPEAKER_00: Love Kim