Latest / District Territory / The Nationals have almost nothing on the books. What could it look like if they spend?

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The Nationals have almost nothing on the books. What could it look like if they spend? · District Territory

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to the District Territory podcast. Shelly from Bat
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Boys Baseball today and Spencey from The Athletic. Franny is
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: out on the ground today in Cleveland, a decisive game three.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: And man, hard to believe on this day in 2019,
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: the Nationals were finishing off their sweep of the Cardinals
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: to head to the World Series. The Brewers will have
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: a chance to do that later tonight against the Dodgers.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: We shall see. But today we are going to be
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: talking about the Nationals payroll entering next season. And a
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: lot is coming off of the books. And they could
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: be looking to spend quite a bit of money, Spencer.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: The projected payroll entering the offseason stands at $ 57. 3 million,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: according to some projections from MLB spreadsheets and MLB trade rumors.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: That's almost $ 25 million less than any other major league team.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: But the $ 57. 3 million figure does need... some context as
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: that number could change a little bit. Do you want
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: to jump into that?
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd love to. I guess my initial starting point,
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: my overarching thought, if people want to tune out of
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: the episode right after this, is that the Nationals have
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: no money on the books. I think we've made that
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: pretty clear. I recommend you don't tune out because, again,
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: there's a lot to couch, a lot to figure out
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: off of that. But the most important thing to know
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: is the Nationals have operated with a very small payroll
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: in recent seasons. It's never been anything like this. Last
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: year they were at $ 90 million, which obviously included the
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: last year of Strasburg's contract, in addition to deals for
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Foster Griffin, Zach Littell, Trevor Williams, Miles Michaelis. All those
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: deals are off the books. And so the Nationals are
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: operating with a payroll at the moment that is about
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: as low as a major league team can honestly go.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: You can look at that as a negative in the
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: sense that why did they get to this point? Or
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: you can look at it as a positive and say, hey,
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: if there was ever a time to spend after a
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: 77 win season, all these things, that's where you're at now.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: All that being said, I'll get to the couching right now,
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: which is that this is not necessarily the number on
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: the Nationals, it's like internal books. It's a little complicated,
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: but they're still paying out money for Strasburg, deferred money,
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: as well as for Max Scherzer. In addition to that,
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: That also includes the arbitration estimates, which I won't get
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: into all of that, but basically it could even be
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: a little lower than $ 57. 3 million. But this is basically
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: a good starting point to say they have very little
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: on the books and potentially could do a lot with
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: that if they wanted to.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah. For the first time in a long time, it
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: seems like they are set to spend. And like you said,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: I would take the approach of not, oh, how did
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: it get to this position? But now they are finally
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: in a situation where they are able to spend And
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: you listed out a few different scenarios, how they could
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: go about that. Let's jump into scenario one, I guess.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: The Nationals spend like the Cleveland Guardians, who had the
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: lowest payroll in 2026 at $ 74. 1 million. This works out
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: with the Nationals adding about $ 17 million to the payroll.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Who out of this list intrigues you the most, Spencer?
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I kind of bucketed this out into... possibilities
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: within that scenario right um so you could have one
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: mid to back of the rotation starter and one kind
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: of mid-market seventh eighth ish inning reliever um you could
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: add just one solid mid rotation expected playoff starter not
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: really be able to help with the bullpen you could
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: add a handful of legitimate uh bullpen pieces or you
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: could take like a handful of upside risky gambles um
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: At the end of the day, if presented with this
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: small money, small bucket scenario, like the idea of kind
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: of opting for breadth in the bullpen, right? I think
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: as we've discussed on past episodes, you can get into
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: some pretty troubled waters if you start to spend $ 15,
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: $ 20 million a year on a reliever. It seems like
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: a sure bet. It often is not. And so I
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: like the idea of, hey, let's target some seventh inning guys, right,
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: and see if they can maybe fit in our mold.
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: So in this sense, you know, Kevin Ginkle, Jacob Eunice,
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: and Brooks Raley were just three names that I pulled out,
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: three names that intrigued me. But at the end of
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: the day, those three really compel me. And just the
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: idea of adding three bullpen pieces to a bullpen that
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: needs depth, if given, you know, $ 17 million to spend,
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: makes sense as opposed to, maybe the risk of adding, uh,
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: you know, one starter. And then if that doesn't pan out, you're,
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: you're really struck, um, and struggling in a lot of
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: places across the board. So, um, I think each of
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: those options have merit, but at least to me, I
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: see it as, Hey, let's maybe, let's maybe fill out
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: this bullpen and see if we can get internal upgrades elsewhere.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah. A name that jumps out to me there too,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: is Blake Trinan. He of course started his career in
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: DC and I know the numbers have ticked off a
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: little bit the last few seasons, but I like to
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: believe that the swing and miss is still there and
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: that he could be someone really helpful in the nationals bullpen.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: If they went that direction, Ginkle and Brooks really as well.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: We saw what a weak spot this bullpen was for
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: the nationals last season. And I think that is kind
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: of where they need to begin with addressing the needs
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: this off season. And in a lighter spending scenario, that
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: makes sense.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: Just to not interrupt you, but on the Trinan piece
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: in particular, that one intrigued me, right? Because it's exactly
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: like you mentioned. It's, It's upside, it's stuff, he's been
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: there before. His arm is also like, we don't know
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: how much longer that can hold on, right? And so
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: you're taking the risk of, he's been here before, and
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: if you look at the stuff models, if you just
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: look at the stuff, it's still good. It still plays
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: in the big leagues. You just don't know how that'll
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: hold up over the course of a whole season. And
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: that's why it kind of fits in that mold of,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: Let's take a risk, but maybe a smart one.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: And you think that would probably be like a pretty
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: low risk contract too, only like two or three million,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: four million, one year sort of deal? Or would it
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: be more than that?
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think what I was trying to parse out
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: with some of those lower end deals was thinking of
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: it somewhere in the bucket of three to seven million.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: I'm not... all that excellent at like specific contract projections
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: for specific players. It's more of players of a mold.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: And so I can't sit here and confidently say what
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: Blake Trinan is going to make this winter. I can
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: say a player of Blake Trinan's caliber situation, et cetera,
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: is probably set for one of those less than 10 million,
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: more than the minimum deals. And so something of that
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: mold in addition to, In this scenario, getting like a
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: Chris Bubich, Luis Ranjifo, something in that mold.
• 7:02
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• 7:07
  Speaker 1: some more scenarios after this. Folks, Nats season may be over,
• 7:14
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• 7:16
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• 7:18
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• 7:21
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• 7:23
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• 7:25
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• 7:27
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• 8:48
  Speaker 1: jump into scenario number two here where the Nationals spend
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: a bit more. They spend like they did last year
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: with their 28th ranked 2026 payroll touchdowns. of $ 90. 4 million,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: which works out to the Nationals adding about $ 33 million
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: in their payroll. In this scenario, they target some higher-end
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: starters and some higher-end relievers at the back end. Spencer,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: what's going on in this scenario?
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, again, this is one where it almost gets the
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: Nationals to a spot where they're at a launch pad,
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: and that's part of why it intrigues me, right? I
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: get to this later on, but I do think in
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: my eyes or estimation, it's probably around a hundred million
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: that you really see the nationals take off. Um, but
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: 90 is maybe a good starting place, right? Because we
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: can talk about what they could do in the mold
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: of figuring things out with some constraints. Um, in my mind,
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: I immediately go to that last option, um, of Chris Bubich,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: Kevin Ginkle, um, Taylor Clark and Brooks Raley. In my eyes,
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: almost all of these scenarios are compelling, or at least
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: the ones that target Clay Holmes and Stephen Okert and
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: Boyd and Cal Quantrill in addition to this one. At
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: the end of the day, I want reliable pieces and
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: I want depth and that costs money, right? And so
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: I like the idea of a Chris Bubich or someone
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: who maybe has a little bit of risk, but you
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: can see the upside of filling into the third spot
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: in the rotation behind Cavalli and Connolly early and letting
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: those final two pieces figured out however they may. And
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: then again, just adding depth to the bullpen. That is,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: as you might be able to tell, a consistent theme
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: in what I believe the Nationals would be well equipped
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: and well suited to do is targeting not you know,
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: the CNL Perez's and the, you know, minor league deals
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: of the world, but actually getting big league relievers on
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: reasonable contracts, I think is something that doesn't cost a
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: lot of money and can benefit the team in terms
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: of figuring it out. Not necessarily, you know, making a
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: push to the world series because I don't think they're
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: there yet, but making a push towards October, potentially being
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: able to, I don't know, just have a seventh, eighth,
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: ninth inning that isn't scary every single time you're out there, right?
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: And so that's kind of why I lean towards that
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: last option. Yeah.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: In this scenario, too, with some of the starting pitchers
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: that you're mentioning here, I feel like there's a possibility
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: for some multi-year deals, too, in the case of Bubik
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: and with Clay Holmes, which maybe gives the Nationals an
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: opportunity to start being competitive here for multiple years and
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: they have pieces solidified, um, in years to come, which
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: is intriguing to me.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: And again, the only reason why like that clay homes
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: option isn't at the very top of my list is a,
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: that takes up probably, I don't want to say most of,
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: but probably more than half of, um, around half of
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: that $ 33 million could be up to 20, 25 million. Um,
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: and so that's, that's one part of it. If you're
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: operating that, bucket. That's hard to figure out other pieces around.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: And secondarily, I just, I think the clay homes is
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: of the world's want to go to contenders and are
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: sought by contenders. And so even if the nationals are
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: interested in paying, you know, top dollar for this guy,
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: is that going to be able to beat out some
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: other smart teams that want him as well? I can't
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: say for certain, but absolutely. I think the most intriguing moment,
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: semi-realistic option is probably a Holmes or maybe even a Boyd,
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: someone of that sort, to maybe figure things out. But
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: it is really hard to figure out exactly what's possible
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: on October 15th. It's maybe a little easier, excuse me,
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: once the postseason ends. But that's why this exercise is fun, right,
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: is we can talk through what we want to see
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: the Nationals do before they actually do it. That multi-year
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: deal piece of it is exactly that.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I'm excited for once we get into the arbitration
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: offers coming back once the postseason wraps up. There'll be
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of fun episodes that we are working through
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: in the offseason. We have one final scenario here to
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: go through, Spencer, where the Nationals spend heavily to reach
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: the level of 20th ranked payroll in MLB at $ 128 million.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Works out to the Nationals spending about $ 71 million. And
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: this includes them going after some dogs like we have
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: discussed in the previous scenarios. and maybe some even bigger names,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Trevor Rogers, Freddie Peralta, who has been absolutely disgusting so
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: far this postseason, probably the top guy to watch in
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: that raise rotation. I guess, what is the likelihood of
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: the Nationals going all in like this offseason?
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: I don't see it as super high. That's not like
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: solidly enough reported for me to say that as a fact.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: That's more of assumptions based on context. Reading the tea leaves,
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: knowing how ownership is operated. in the past. Um, but I,
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't 1000% roll it out. And that's why it is, um,
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: presented here is because it is an interesting kind of
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: thought experiment to go through, right. Where we say, Hey,
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: all you have to do is spend like the Cincinnati reds. You're,
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: you're not spending like, um, you know, even a mid
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: market team or a high market team or anything of
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: the sort. Like it's, it's the reds who historically have
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: not spent a ton of money who have operated, um,
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: kind of at a lower juncture, um, And yet this
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: still would allow the Nationals to really make some splashes.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Fans talk so much about a Jason Wirth type signing.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: I still don't know how realistic or smart or possible
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: that might be. But this scenario would offer something like that, right?
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: Where it would be on the pitching side, but it
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: would be getting a guy who you keep in town
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: for a long time, who slots into October, potentially in
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: like a number two game two sort of situation. Um,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: it is maybe not going all in, but it's the
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: step right before going all in. Um, and it really,
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, whatever, $ 71 million in, you know, us currency
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: is a lot of money. Sure. Um, when we talk
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: just about how the best teams in baseball operate, they
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: don't always go all in, in free agency, but they
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: usually have, you know, someone that they've acquired. We look
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: at the brewers in Yelich. We look at, um, You know, basically,
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: maybe not some of the teams that are in the
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: LCS right now, but a lot of teams that get
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: there consistently. And so for the Nationals, this would be, hey,
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: we believe in a guy, we'll sign a guy. I
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: just don't know that it's going to be this season.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: But I, again, just to reiterate, wouldn't 1000% rule it out,
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: even if it's maybe unlikely. Yeah. Yeah.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: To me, it seems a little bit too early. And
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: like you said, I think players really want to go
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: to winners too. And the Nationals maybe just haven't proven
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: it quite yet. But it would definitely probably have to
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: come on the pitching side. I would imagine with how
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: much the offense improved last season and given the pitchers
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: on the market this offseason, that's where my mind would
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: jump to. Outside of the payroll talk really quickly, if
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: we get back to the Nationals in present day, First
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: time in a while we won't see Jacob Young in
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: the finalists for the Gold Glove Awards, which is a
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: little odd, but it's so tough when you're playing in
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: the same league as guys like PCA the year he had.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: But Dalen Lyle, we have to give some kudos there
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: to him. He is a left field Gold Glove finalist
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: after being one of the worst ranked left fielders defensively
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: last season. Just a day and night turnaround for him,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: something that he worked on so much last offseason and
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: was able to improve this year. Makes me optimistic that
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: he can dial in on certain things throughout his career
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: and become an incredible player here.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: Right. And the pathway towards him becoming a three to
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: four war player every single season is not hard to see, right?
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: It's keeping the defense that way. And offensively, I mean, sure,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: it's a great point, right? Like he worked as hard
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: as possible on defense and got better at it. His
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: goal this offseason offensively is actually to relax, take a beat,
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: maybe mentally reset a little bit because part of his
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: issue was putting too much pressure on himself. But in
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: terms of like the work ethic itself, we know he
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: has it in the tank to figure it out offensively.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: And so, yeah, he's a guy who I remain bullish
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: on as I did throughout the course of the season,
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: even though it wasn't. exactly the season I thought he
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: would have and maybe he thought he would have. Yeah,
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: kudos to him for figuring it out defensively. And as
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: you said, it bodes well for what his future holds.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, I guess I'll start to wrap up today
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: by saying thank you all so much for the continued
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: support throughout the season and watching our videos. We really
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: appreciate it. Leave some comments down below on who you
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: would want to see the Nationals go after and spend
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: or which of these scenarios intrigues you the most. keep
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: on reading Spencer stories over the athletic and stay following
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: the bat boys post-season content. Anything else from you, Spence?
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: No, I think that's all I got. Just yeah. Leave
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: your thoughts below. Yeah.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Keep on rocking with us. We'll have Franny back next week, hopefully.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: And yeah, when this is going live game three should
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: be going on. Hopefully he's enjoying that, but we'll see
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: you next week, everybody.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: Peace.