Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NBA Conference Finals w/Justin Phan and Matt Moore

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NBA Conference Finals w/Justin Phan and Matt Moore · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Mowman. I will be joined in a
0:18
Speaker 1: moment by my bff, my companion, my compadre, the man
0:23
Speaker 1: who I missed so much while I was out this week.
0:29
Speaker 1: Later in the show that his name is Simon Hunter.
0:31
Speaker 1: Later in the show. Later in the show, We're gonna
0:33
Speaker 1: have And when I say later, I mean like in
0:35
Speaker 1: the next Action Network NBA analysts, my co hosts and
0:43
Speaker 1: co partners on heat Check, the n NBA, the NBA
0:49
Speaker 1: pregame betting show that we do twice a week on
0:51
Speaker 1: Action Network. Uh, Matt Moore, justin fan. There's a lot
0:56
Speaker 1: of NBA talk, and I'm loving the NBA playoffs. As
0:59
Speaker 1: we all know right now, the Sun's it's Tuesday afternoon.
1:03
Speaker 1: The Sun's are up three to the Milwaukee Bucks are
1:08
Speaker 1: up to one, and they are playing tonight. So many
1:14
Speaker 1: of you will be listening to this after the game
1:16
Speaker 1: is played, which is totally fine. Simon, I missed you
1:20
Speaker 1: when I was a vacation. Did you did you? I did? Yeah,
1:26
Speaker 1: I missed you too, man. And we have to dive
1:28
Speaker 1: right into it because a little old friend hit me
1:31
Speaker 1: up this week an X and she'd been listening to
1:34
Speaker 1: our show, Chad while you were on break and I
1:37
Speaker 1: had to put out some fires. Is it the X
1:39
Speaker 1: that broke your heart? The ex who has decided to
1:45
Speaker 1: move on with her life, and the X who is
1:48
Speaker 1: now thinking why is Simon on a podcast talking about
1:52
Speaker 1: our life, our love life and going out with other women?
1:57
Speaker 1: All is true, yes, and she's not doing a good
1:59
Speaker 1: job moving on. But she said I came off sounding
2:01
Speaker 1: a little shallow when I described her, and that she's
2:04
Speaker 1: in a bitter place. I think I was just a
2:05
Speaker 1: little upset. I told her she's a strong, beautiful woman,
2:09
Speaker 1: she's smart, and you know, I hope what's best for
2:12
Speaker 1: But on this show, you know we're gonna talk Chad,
2:15
Speaker 1: and you're gonna ask me about my life. I'm gonna
2:17
Speaker 1: tell you what's going on. So yeah, it was. It
2:18
Speaker 1: was a little tough for her. But I just want
2:20
Speaker 1: to say to my good friend that you know she lives.
2:25
Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to put her name out there,
2:27
Speaker 1: but she keeps hitting me up, and uh, I will
2:29
Speaker 1: not talk about her or my relationship with her anymore.
2:32
Speaker 1: I promised. Now that she's listening to this is their
2:35
Speaker 1: potential for reconciliation. Oh, Chad, you know what went on.
2:38
Speaker 1: But no, I don't think it's gonna go past what
2:40
Speaker 1: happened a couple of days ago. Old friends who are
2:43
Speaker 1: lover has become friends again. I think we're both just
2:45
Speaker 1: gonna try to move forward. But I don't know, dude.
2:48
Speaker 1: I can't get rid of her and she can't go
2:49
Speaker 1: to me. It's love is a mysterious thing. No one
2:52
Speaker 1: gets it in due time. In due time, simon. But
2:55
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna let you off so easier, Chad. What
2:58
Speaker 1: is my name again? I'm a hunter? Is there a
3:01
Speaker 1: more British name? He saw im in? Right? And now
3:04
Speaker 1: I'm sitting here on your podcast when England is taken
3:07
Speaker 1: on Germany? Right? This is World War two chat and
3:10
Speaker 1: you have me on your podcast during the biggest moment
3:14
Speaker 1: in England history to talk about what basketball? I'm gonna
3:17
Speaker 1: talk basketball right now? What does the British lad know
3:20
Speaker 1: about basketball? England's up one nothing over Germany? Right now? Englands'
3:24
Speaker 1: one nothing over Germany? Right now? You want to do
3:25
Speaker 1: something else, that's cool. I had a meeting this morning.
3:28
Speaker 1: It was with an accountant. It was someone who I hadn't.
3:31
Speaker 1: I had never really met before. At the end of it,
3:34
Speaker 1: he asked if there were going to be crypto investments
3:37
Speaker 1: in my portfolio, and I said, yeah, I have some
3:41
Speaker 1: right now, and he goes, what about the future? I go,
3:44
Speaker 1: I don't know. He goes, well, I know what the
3:47
Speaker 1: Action Network is, and you know, I know that you
3:50
Speaker 1: guys talk a lot about crypto, So I was just curious.
3:53
Speaker 1: And so I think it's appropriate that we have fan
3:56
Speaker 1: on Justin Fan and you and Matt Moore because this
4:00
Speaker 1: is a crypto punk love and crew, and I just
4:02
Speaker 1: thought that was interesting that we had a fan out
4:04
Speaker 1: there who I did not know who because we were
4:07
Speaker 1: meeting any knew of the Action Network. He was asking
4:09
Speaker 1: me about my investment in crypto? Are you buying the
4:12
Speaker 1: dip Chad? I can't decide, what do you think? Should
4:14
Speaker 1: I wait a little wait a little longer until we
4:17
Speaker 1: see what happens here because it's someone that has a
4:19
Speaker 1: lot of money in crypto. I'm with people. I'm a
4:22
Speaker 1: little scared about the U. S. Government banning it. So
4:25
Speaker 1: I think that's what the fear is right now. People
4:26
Speaker 1: are selling off the mass portions because it's a little
4:30
Speaker 1: scary right now, all these different countries are being in it,
4:33
Speaker 1: and some countries are trying to turn into their currency.
4:35
Speaker 1: So my advice to WO b T is keep waiting.
4:38
Speaker 1: What does fans say? Fans of Big Crypto Guide is
4:41
Speaker 1: fan have thoughts on crypto right now? Justin Fan before
4:43
Speaker 1: we get to the NBA, Well, I'm all in. I
4:46
Speaker 1: bought the DIP. I bought a bunch of a bunch
4:49
Speaker 1: of you know, bitcoin at thirty K when thirty one K,
4:52
Speaker 1: and I bought a bunch of ethereum. So I'm buying apes,
4:56
Speaker 1: I'm buying crypto punks. I'm buying all these to use too,
5:00
Speaker 1: So we're all in. I expected nothing less from Justin Fan.
5:05
Speaker 1: I love that about him. All right, let's get to
5:07
Speaker 1: the conference finals right now. My first question is let's
5:11
Speaker 1: talk about the Sons and the Clippers, because that, to me,
5:14
Speaker 1: is this the more interesting matchup. A lot of drama
5:17
Speaker 1: in this series for a series that seemed to be
5:19
Speaker 1: dominated by the Suns. I'll start with you, Matt Moore. Um,
5:23
Speaker 1: you've made predictions. Are you standing by your predictions? Give
5:28
Speaker 1: me your take on the series and what do you
5:29
Speaker 1: think happens next. I like Clippers plus two and a
5:32
Speaker 1: half wins that cash last night, plus two and a
5:34
Speaker 1: half wins in the series. So as long as they
5:37
Speaker 1: got two wins in the series, I was good at
5:40
Speaker 1: series winsbur I got that after Game two. I actually
5:44
Speaker 1: I like the Sons in Game four, and I like
5:46
Speaker 1: the Clippers in Game five, and I like the Sons
5:47
Speaker 1: in Game six. So something to keep in mind here.
5:50
Speaker 1: I looked up the data just before we went on
5:52
Speaker 1: the spot, and last night, the Clippers in this series
5:55
Speaker 1: had the best differential between they're expected affect the field
5:58
Speaker 1: goal percentage and they're actual. So what happened was they
6:01
Speaker 1: shot the lights up. They just shot the absolute freaking
6:04
Speaker 1: lights out. And that's gonna happen sometimes in the series.
6:06
Speaker 1: You're gonna get those kind of breaks, especially with the
6:08
Speaker 1: high variance team like the Clippers. The Son's offense is underperformed,
6:11
Speaker 1: and I think that's the concern that I think everyone's having.
6:13
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised the line is as short. It
6:16
Speaker 1: actually opened with Sons as a dog last night, which
6:19
Speaker 1: I was a little surprised at, without zoobots, without Kauai
6:23
Speaker 1: Sons of it as a dog last night. That's when
6:25
Speaker 1: I grabbed it. Now Sons are minus one. I do
6:28
Speaker 1: think that as the series goes on, um and really
6:31
Speaker 1: I just think it ends the next game. The Sons
6:33
Speaker 1: will have one game where the offense plays do expectation.
6:36
Speaker 1: They will figure out a couple of things. There are
6:38
Speaker 1: some things they need to do better, but overall, I
6:40
Speaker 1: do think the Clippers have given their best effort. I
6:42
Speaker 1: thought that was a really gutsy win, but I don't
6:45
Speaker 1: think they can get two more. Matt. Matt Moore just
6:47
Speaker 1: said one thing. He thinks the offense for the Suns
6:50
Speaker 1: can play at expect Oh my god, goal, Harry Kane.
6:53
Speaker 1: That's do nothing England. Holy shit, Chad, we've lost Simon Hunter.
6:57
Speaker 1: Simon might not come back, which is totally fine. I
6:59
Speaker 1: can appreciate this. I want him to enjoy his Euros experience.
7:03
Speaker 1: Chris Paul has not shot well. Last night's shot okay,
7:06
Speaker 1: Devin Booker has not shot well. The offense is not
7:11
Speaker 1: for four particularly well. Can you believe this right now?
7:14
Speaker 1: England's being Germany? Do nothing? Dude? Holy shot? Let me
7:19
Speaker 1: ask you a question before we get to fan. Did
7:20
Speaker 1: you bet on this one? Are you fucking kidding me?
7:23
Speaker 1: Of course, I've bet on this, but we can lose
7:25
Speaker 1: for the next fifty fucking years. Dude. Germany bombed my
7:28
Speaker 1: nan in London. She lived in a subway for two years. Dude,
7:31
Speaker 1: even though I drive a BMW. We hate Germany. We
7:34
Speaker 1: hate Germany. Holy sh it, dude. To nothing in England
7:38
Speaker 1: right now, this is revenge for the blitz creaging a
7:41
Speaker 1: europe Cup match. Yeah, it only took us a hundred
7:43
Speaker 1: years to get back the them, but oh my god,
7:45
Speaker 1: this is crazy right now. To nothing. Did you bet
7:48
Speaker 1: on England to win this game? Or did you bet
7:49
Speaker 1: on them to win the Euros? Win the game in
7:51
Speaker 1: the Euros? But like, it's not like I have a
7:53
Speaker 1: lot of money, dude, it's fucking pride. I mean, this
7:56
Speaker 1: is like like I can't believe what's happening. And I
7:58
Speaker 1: mean I'm English, dude, England everyone thinks the worst thing
8:01
Speaker 1: is gonna happen because it rains every day in England.
8:03
Speaker 1: It's just built into our personalities. I can't even imagine
8:06
Speaker 1: what's happening like that. England might be burned to the
8:08
Speaker 1: ground as we speak. People must be going mental over there.
8:11
Speaker 1: I can't and imagine speaking of burning to the ground,
8:14
Speaker 1: Phoenix is hot fan, What do you think of Phoenix's
8:18
Speaker 1: offense right now? And can it get untracked if they
8:21
Speaker 1: end up advancing or can they advance if they continue
8:25
Speaker 1: to play bad offensively. I think the Sun's offense is
8:29
Speaker 1: dumped to fire, and I don't agree with Matt that
8:31
Speaker 1: it's easily solvable. Um. You look at just the trends
8:35
Speaker 1: of their shot quality over the course of this series.
8:38
Speaker 1: They the number of wide open threes they're here, they're
8:40
Speaker 1: they're getting per game has gone down and down and down.
8:42
Speaker 1: It went for fourteen in game once down to six
8:45
Speaker 1: um last night. So uh, I mean, I gotta give
8:49
Speaker 1: so much credit to Tylo. I mean he's coming out
8:52
Speaker 1: with this two one to zone that's really throwing the
8:56
Speaker 1: Sun's offense for a loop. The Sun's offense has the
9:00
Speaker 1: evolved into Chris Paul and Devin Booker is sewing and
9:04
Speaker 1: taking tough jumpers, tough fadeaways after one after another right,
9:10
Speaker 1: and Tyler has just been ahead of the curve every
9:14
Speaker 1: step of the white Literally. I think he coached almost
9:17
Speaker 1: a perfect game last night. Um. I mean you know
9:22
Speaker 1: he DeAndre Ayden had nine paint touches overall against a
9:26
Speaker 1: Clippers team without Vika zoo Botch. That's really incredible. Like
9:30
Speaker 1: when I first heard the zoo Botch news, I was like,
9:33
Speaker 1: they're done. The Clippers are I mean, the Clippers are done.
9:36
Speaker 1: They have no one to guard DeAndre Ayden and they
9:39
Speaker 1: somehow managed to limit him, you know, to just nine
9:44
Speaker 1: paint touches overall. So, um, yeah, I thought, Um, Tyler
9:49
Speaker 1: did a massful job. You know that you want to
9:51
Speaker 1: zone hiding DeMarcus Cousin on defense, exploding Devin Booker as
9:55
Speaker 1: a point guard, closing up driving lanes, forcing ab del
9:59
Speaker 1: Nada and Tory Craig to beat them from the corners.
10:01
Speaker 1: I mean, he did really everything that you could ask
10:04
Speaker 1: for him. And um, I'm I'm legitimately concerned about this
10:07
Speaker 1: Sun's offense where it's out after the last night. You
10:10
Speaker 1: you're saying you think there's good value on the Clippers
10:12
Speaker 1: because it is three to two, Like you're like, we're
10:14
Speaker 1: talking as if it's you know, it's a it's like
10:16
Speaker 1: a close series. But it's one of those where I
10:19
Speaker 1: thought that was just a throwaway game. Right. The Clippers
10:21
Speaker 1: came out there unbelievable shooting. Everything just went right, and
10:24
Speaker 1: everything kind of went wrong a little bit for the Suns.
10:26
Speaker 1: Like we saw Chris Paul, He's just not hitting those
10:28
Speaker 1: midrang shots right now. So it's one of those where
10:31
Speaker 1: it's a little scary the next two games. Are the
10:32
Speaker 1: Sons really gonna play that bad again the next two games? Look,
10:35
Speaker 1: we have this perception. I think that the Suns are
10:38
Speaker 1: the better team. They've been outscoring this series by seventeen points.
10:41
Speaker 1: Let's get that straight. The Clippers have been the better
10:44
Speaker 1: team overall. I think in this series. Um, we we
10:48
Speaker 1: saw that rock fight, Um you know at Dana one
10:51
Speaker 1: of the games where the Clippers could easily won that
10:54
Speaker 1: game if they had dozens of chances to pull out
10:58
Speaker 1: ahead and and come back and get that one. So
11:01
Speaker 1: they could easily be up in this series too. So
11:04
Speaker 1: this perception that there's like some golf between these two teams,
11:07
Speaker 1: I think is a is incorrect. All Right, Matt Moore,
11:10
Speaker 1: I know you want to say something because you're making
11:11
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of faces. You're either completely incredulous about
11:15
Speaker 1: what fan is saying, or you're having a stroke, which
11:16
Speaker 1: is totally cool. If you're having a stroke, just raise
11:19
Speaker 1: your hand because I just want to finish talking and
11:20
Speaker 1: we'll get you some help. Number one, I completely agree
11:24
Speaker 1: with Fan about the way the Clippers are being coached.
11:28
Speaker 1: Not only is DeAndre Ayton not getting many touches, but
11:33
Speaker 1: at the end of the game, every single time last
11:35
Speaker 1: night the Sun started to make it close, the ball
11:38
Speaker 1: would go into eight and in the paint if he
11:40
Speaker 1: was lucky enough to get it, and there were swarms
11:42
Speaker 1: of people around him, he could not get a clean touch.
11:44
Speaker 1: He could not get a clean shot off. It was
11:46
Speaker 1: really kind of remarkable how the Sun's when they would
11:49
Speaker 1: seem seemingly get momentum, could not close the gap. And
11:52
Speaker 1: the Clippers gave them so many chances. They made so
11:55
Speaker 1: many bad files, so many opportunities to have four point plays,
11:58
Speaker 1: five point place, six point in place. The Sons couldn't
12:01
Speaker 1: do it. So I agree with Fan on that number one.
12:04
Speaker 1: Um Number two, Matt, why are you so incredulous when
12:10
Speaker 1: in reality this is this is great gambler's logic, because
12:16
Speaker 1: right now, the difference in this series is a miracle
12:20
Speaker 1: lob from Jay Crowder to DeAndre. That's it. Like the
12:25
Speaker 1: Sons are up three one going last night, but if
12:28
Speaker 1: not for that, they might be down three one at
12:31
Speaker 1: this point, so or three too, so give give me
12:34
Speaker 1: your incredulity defense. So I think a lot of this
12:39
Speaker 1: is the Clippers probably should have won that game too,
12:42
Speaker 1: but they didn't. They didn't win that game. I actually
12:45
Speaker 1: asked the books about the differential and what the series
12:48
Speaker 1: price would have been on between after Game two if
12:53
Speaker 1: Aiden had not hit that game winner versus when he did.
12:56
Speaker 1: It was seven and fifty points of value differential between
12:59
Speaker 1: on the series price line between winning Game two and
13:02
Speaker 1: losing Game two. So that was a huge swing, Like
13:05
Speaker 1: that was a huge lever's position, and that I agree
13:09
Speaker 1: with Justin that well, okay, I think that that these
13:11
Speaker 1: two teams have been very even. I don't agree with
13:13
Speaker 1: Justin that the Clippers have clearly been the better team.
13:17
Speaker 1: That's not accurate. The Sons are up three to the
13:19
Speaker 1: Clippers have struggled offensively as well in this series. I
13:22
Speaker 1: agree with them on the shock quality. A lot of
13:24
Speaker 1: this has to do with Okay, so the shock quality
13:27
Speaker 1: is in part because they do not get the ball
13:29
Speaker 1: to eighton enough, like Justin mentioned, like only nine paint
13:33
Speaker 1: touches versus that two one they can figure out the
13:34
Speaker 1: two one two zone. They don't, and that's something that
13:37
Speaker 1: can be corrected. So this is an interesting question, right,
13:39
Speaker 1: and this is what we get to a lot in
13:41
Speaker 1: the playoffs, is the the advantage is there, the matchup
13:44
Speaker 1: adjustment is there. Are you gonna take it? Mike Budenholzer,
13:48
Speaker 1: Mike Bootenholzer, are you gonna take it? Like? That's where
13:50
Speaker 1: we're usually asking that question. They can get eight more
13:53
Speaker 1: involved in lobs. If zoo Bosch isn't in, they can
13:55
Speaker 1: get eight more involved in the role if if if
13:58
Speaker 1: zoo Bosh isn't in and he's be limited if he
14:01
Speaker 1: does play next game, they still have a huge advantage
14:03
Speaker 1: with Aidan. The Starage minutes, which were great early in
14:05
Speaker 1: the series, have cooled off. But do we really trust
14:08
Speaker 1: to Marcus Cousins to play these minutes and not get
14:10
Speaker 1: exploited to Even with a two one two, they can
14:12
Speaker 1: figure out the two one too pretty easily. That's not
14:14
Speaker 1: a problem for them to adjust to. It does take
14:16
Speaker 1: teams a little bit of the time. If you look
14:18
Speaker 1: back the last couple of seasons, teams plays in the zone,
14:20
Speaker 1: they struggle for a little bit, they spend some time
14:23
Speaker 1: working on it, and then they figure it out. Paul
14:26
Speaker 1: hits more of those midrange jumpers. Booker has had a
14:28
Speaker 1: couple of bad games, I think because the defense has
14:30
Speaker 1: been good, but he'll hit enough of them. I'm not
14:32
Speaker 1: saying the Suns are gonna run away with it, but
14:34
Speaker 1: they gotta win one game because of that eight and
14:37
Speaker 1: switch over and then we're done here. They're gonna get
14:39
Speaker 1: this next game. I feel pretty confident in that fact. Still,
14:42
Speaker 1: so a couple of things here. I think the coaching
14:46
Speaker 1: discrepancy here is pretty I don't. I don't think Monty
14:49
Speaker 1: Williams coached the bad game. I just think TYLERU is exceptional,
14:53
Speaker 1: Like he micro manages everything. So you look at the
14:56
Speaker 1: start of the second half, the his sons went a
15:00
Speaker 1: little bit of a run. The Clippers offense was stagnant.
15:04
Speaker 1: I mean, Terrence Man was getting the ball a lot.
15:06
Speaker 1: He was driving just with the intent of passing. He
15:09
Speaker 1: was a liability offensively. I texted one of my friends,
15:12
Speaker 1: I was like, parents man needs to be more aggressive.
15:14
Speaker 1: It needs to figure this out where the Clippers offense
15:16
Speaker 1: is going to score it all. Literally, a couple of
15:18
Speaker 1: minutes into the half, Tyler subs out Terrence Man for
15:22
Speaker 1: Nick Patune and that's where that run. That's where that
15:25
Speaker 1: big run starts right away. Nick Batune finishes a plus
15:28
Speaker 1: eighteen that game. I think Terrence Man was like a
15:30
Speaker 1: minus six. Like he's micro adjusting the little things during
15:35
Speaker 1: the game, even when the even with the matchup stuff. Right,
15:40
Speaker 1: he knows that with the without j Boch, you cannot
15:44
Speaker 1: win against the Sun style. You can't win big versus big.
15:47
Speaker 1: So what he's what he's doing. He starts the game
15:51
Speaker 1: small with Marcus Morris at center. The minute DeAndre Aden
15:54
Speaker 1: comes out, he puts Boogie in against Dario Sarge. Right,
15:58
Speaker 1: Boogie is not not a good player, not a player
16:01
Speaker 1: you want to play a ton of minutes, but against
16:03
Speaker 1: Dario Sarge, he will eat in that matchup. The minute
16:06
Speaker 1: Dario Sarge gets subbed out, DeAndre Ayton comes in, boogiees
16:10
Speaker 1: off the floor. The just the little things, minute by minute,
16:14
Speaker 1: rotation by rotation, giving them different looks, the two one
16:17
Speaker 1: two zone. Going back to Man, Tyler has nailed in
16:21
Speaker 1: game in series adjustments. I don't I would love to
16:25
Speaker 1: hear your counter on this mat because literally there is
16:28
Speaker 1: Tyler want them that game with all these adjustments. I don't.
16:31
Speaker 1: I don't hear any defense for that can I go Chad,
16:34
Speaker 1: go go for And let me just say one thing
16:36
Speaker 1: before you do. I love how Fan is going on
16:40
Speaker 1: Tyler is an amazing coach, rant and giving all the
16:44
Speaker 1: credit in the world to Taylu. But just notice one thing.
16:47
Speaker 1: It was Fan who texted a buddy and said something's
16:51
Speaker 1: got to happen with Terrence Man, and then two minutes
16:53
Speaker 1: later it was Tyler following justin fans advice and figuring
16:56
Speaker 1: out how to get Terrence Man out of the game
16:59
Speaker 1: for Nick patuone. So in reality, Justin Fan is the
17:03
Speaker 1: best coach of the Clippers. Not no, no rebuttal no
17:08
Speaker 1: rebuttal ahead. Yeah, it's a real genius move to take
17:12
Speaker 1: one of the guys that's been the actual difference maker
17:14
Speaker 1: that everyone was saying Terrence Man needs to play more
17:15
Speaker 1: in games one through four. Everyone's been saying that him stoppable.
17:21
Speaker 1: Congratulations that he made the adjustment from a two who
17:23
Speaker 1: should have been playing earlier in the series. By the way,
17:25
Speaker 1: we never talked about the fact that Tyler keeps getting
17:27
Speaker 1: himself in situations where he's down. Let's also stop at
17:30
Speaker 1: this loose situation. Lose reputation is entirely built off of
17:32
Speaker 1: the Cavs series. That's where all this is coming from.
17:35
Speaker 1: And because they made that run in two thousand and
17:37
Speaker 1: eight team which was largely about how bad the Eastern
17:39
Speaker 1: Conference was. Let's not get carried away with Tyler's a genius.
17:42
Speaker 1: Oh but he played Bookie Cousins. He has two bigs
17:45
Speaker 1: left justin he only has two centators to rotate. He
17:48
Speaker 1: is Marcus Morris, and to Marcus Cousins, that's all he
17:51
Speaker 1: can do. Lose a good coach. I'm not I'm not
17:54
Speaker 1: saying he's not. You can play book. He did not
17:56
Speaker 1: play book against DeAndre eight at all. That's what I'm saying.
17:58
Speaker 1: You have two centers, but you can choose selectively. Went
18:01
Speaker 1: to play him. It's it's it's completely but the starge
18:04
Speaker 1: Cousins min It's got destroyed earlier in the series. Cousins.
18:07
Speaker 1: Over the long term, he's gonna have games where he's
18:09
Speaker 1: gonna eat. I like that adjustment. I like playing Cousins.
18:11
Speaker 1: I liked it earlier in the series. However, you're not
18:13
Speaker 1: gonna win every single time out, Like that's not going
18:16
Speaker 1: to win every single time out. There's gonna be times
18:18
Speaker 1: when Cousins misses the little turnaround jump shots or they
18:21
Speaker 1: bring help and he turns the ball over, and then
18:23
Speaker 1: he's still gonna get cooked on the defensive end. And
18:25
Speaker 1: if they're cooking him on the defensive end, which has
18:26
Speaker 1: been the big the big change here, then that entire
18:29
Speaker 1: equation changes because you're trading cousins two point attempts which
18:32
Speaker 1: aren't probably gonna be very efficient for some three point attempts.
18:36
Speaker 1: There's a lot of adjustments that Williams can make. Now,
18:38
Speaker 1: I agree, I think that money Williams has shown a
18:41
Speaker 1: little bit of a struggle, like he's really struggled to
18:43
Speaker 1: I think to make the adjustments in this series. I'm
18:45
Speaker 1: not disagreeing that Tyler has been a really good coach.
18:47
Speaker 1: Like the record speaks for itself in terms of closeout
18:50
Speaker 1: games or being closed out backs against the wall. I
18:53
Speaker 1: do think, however, we're going a little bit overboard based
18:56
Speaker 1: off of a situation in which they were up against
18:58
Speaker 1: the wall about to be eliminated, shot eleven percent better
19:01
Speaker 1: than they were expected. Like again, close series. I thought
19:04
Speaker 1: it would be close. I said there was value on
19:06
Speaker 1: the Clippers when spread to start the series. But we're
19:09
Speaker 1: going too far the other way now, and like we're whiplashing.
19:12
Speaker 1: When the Suns went up, everyone was like, Oh, this
19:14
Speaker 1: is done. It's That's all I heard from my action
19:16
Speaker 1: colleagues yesterday. Chad was Oh, this is done. It's over
19:20
Speaker 1: to get these guys out of here. And I was like,
19:21
Speaker 1: I kind of like the Clippers now. I got scared
19:23
Speaker 1: when the zoo bosh news came down, but I didn't
19:25
Speaker 1: buy back on the other other side because we tend
19:28
Speaker 1: to We're just whip lashing back and forth on this.
19:30
Speaker 1: Don't get caught up in that. The Suns have been
19:32
Speaker 1: a great team throughout these playoffs. They have more adjustments
19:34
Speaker 1: in their hold on Matt More. Let fan have have
19:37
Speaker 1: his say, because I do want to get to the
19:39
Speaker 1: to the Bucks Hawks, even though it's a less passionate
19:41
Speaker 1: series for sure, but I do want to set up
19:43
Speaker 1: some final stuff, so Fan, you can have your final
19:45
Speaker 1: say on this. Yeah what, Here's where I'm at. I
19:48
Speaker 1: just think this whole notion that Chris Paul and Devin
19:50
Speaker 1: Booker are the same player as they were earlier in
19:52
Speaker 1: the playoffs is a mistake. I mean, Chris Paul recovered
19:55
Speaker 1: from COVID, Devin Booker broke his nose in three places
19:59
Speaker 1: were in that mass struggling with it. I just don't
20:01
Speaker 1: think you can have that same level expectation that it's
20:04
Speaker 1: just like regression. They're gonna start hitting those shots, and
20:07
Speaker 1: those are tough shots to begin with. Um And yeah,
20:11
Speaker 1: I mean with the Tyl Lou stuff, I just want
20:14
Speaker 1: to touch on that. I've criticized Tyler. He's made mistakes
20:17
Speaker 1: in the early games of series. Game in the first
20:20
Speaker 1: round started Vica Zubach for two games, while Luca Donte
20:24
Speaker 1: torched him, took him two games to realize you gotta
20:26
Speaker 1: start small. Start with Marcus Morris the Jazz series, right,
20:30
Speaker 1: he played the genre on eighteen the final twenty one
20:32
Speaker 1: minutes of Game one, played Terrence Man less than a
20:35
Speaker 1: minute in a game too. He's made mistakes, but just
20:38
Speaker 1: looking at the body of work, I really think there's
20:41
Speaker 1: a method to his madness. I mean, he's throwing stuff
20:44
Speaker 1: up against the wall the first two games of the series,
20:47
Speaker 1: seeing what sticks, and then making the necessary adjustments from there.
20:51
Speaker 1: Like we've seen this three series in a row now
20:54
Speaker 1: where he's done that and you can't really argue with
20:57
Speaker 1: the results. So I just think looking at this series
21:02
Speaker 1: where Chris Paul and Devin Booker are at where Tyler
21:06
Speaker 1: has the in series in game coaching edge. Romanti Williams.
21:09
Speaker 1: Monty william is playing Abdel Nader, who hasn't played in
21:12
Speaker 1: four months for no reason. Abdelmain are playing nine minutes
21:15
Speaker 1: over Tory Craig like makes no sense, like he's doing
21:18
Speaker 1: He's making those little mistakes. Tyler is capitalizing, capitalizing on them.
21:23
Speaker 1: Don't let them win this next game because, uh, if
21:26
Speaker 1: they win this next game, the Clippers I like them
21:28
Speaker 1: to win to win the series. Al Right, So this
21:31
Speaker 1: is what's interesting to me. There obviously are odds out
21:36
Speaker 1: for each matchup of the finals, the eight possible matchups,
21:42
Speaker 1: uh for each how each series will end? Right, Bucks
21:45
Speaker 1: to beat the Clippers, Hawks to beat the Sun's Sons
21:48
Speaker 1: to beat the Bucks, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. UM, I want
21:51
Speaker 1: to quickly simon first, how's uh World War three going on? Well,
21:58
Speaker 1: I'll just quickly touch on professionals I've talked to a
22:01
Speaker 1: lot of them have hit the Clippers last night, A
22:04
Speaker 1: couple of hit the Clippers before the games small and
22:07
Speaker 1: they've kind of had the same view that Justin has
22:09
Speaker 1: hear of that the Sons have just been more fortunate.
22:12
Speaker 1: But like they say, like I said a couple of
22:15
Speaker 1: shows ago, it's this is like the old story and
22:18
Speaker 1: Chris Paul, these are just the like three one has
22:20
Speaker 1: just been a dagger. He can never close out these
22:22
Speaker 1: matchups three one and I don't know, I just think
22:25
Speaker 1: of what's just insane. I I just bet on the Clippers.
22:27
Speaker 1: I think they're actually is pretty good value at plus
22:29
Speaker 1: four hundred, So I'm with him on that. But yes,
22:32
Speaker 1: England won to nothing. Chat I know so not that
22:38
Speaker 1: I'm not upset anymore that I did this show. I
22:39
Speaker 1: feel like you're my good luck charm because the minute
22:41
Speaker 1: I sat down here, we scored two goals. So thank you,
22:43
Speaker 1: Chad for everything in life. Well, you know a lot
22:46
Speaker 1: of people have said that about me. Hawks, Hawks box
22:52
Speaker 1: Tree Young injured. We don't know what's gonna happen. The
22:54
Speaker 1: Bucks ran away with that game in the final quarter
22:56
Speaker 1: after Tree Young was injured. Uh, it has been a
22:59
Speaker 1: relatively even matchup through that. So now it's Bucks up
23:03
Speaker 1: to one. Do we think that the Hawks have a
23:06
Speaker 1: shot if Trey Young is playing at or less? Have
23:11
Speaker 1: you guys ever seen a superstar get hurt from a
23:13
Speaker 1: referee before? Like is this. I can't remember ever seen
23:16
Speaker 1: anything like that? What is happening? The ref was like
23:19
Speaker 1: in a normal position to It's just like a freak
23:21
Speaker 1: accident in the ref in that in that scenario, right,
23:24
Speaker 1: it was just it just happened. It's like, it's really unfortunate.
23:27
Speaker 1: Obviously it's super unlucky. But why not off to the
23:29
Speaker 1: side though, Like why not? Like he was right behind him?
23:32
Speaker 1: I don't get why he didn't have an angle. I
23:34
Speaker 1: don't like, why did you line up right behind a
23:36
Speaker 1: guy who's it was just weird how he lined up
23:38
Speaker 1: right behind him with the ball? You said that's normal.
23:41
Speaker 1: I don't know, It's just like it looked weird, Like
23:43
Speaker 1: I haven't seen that before. No, no one's got an
23:48
Speaker 1: answer for you, Simon, I got anothering, like it's just
23:51
Speaker 1: one of those weird things that occurred. Like, am I understanding?
23:53
Speaker 1: Like position? But what do we think about the sears?
23:57
Speaker 1: Is it over? Like should we be looking at what
24:00
Speaker 1: the prices are for Bucks against the Clippers or Bucks
24:04
Speaker 1: against the Suns right now? I mean, you look at
24:06
Speaker 1: that fourth quarter, I think that's a preview of things
24:09
Speaker 1: to come. Right where the fourth quarter where the Hawks
24:12
Speaker 1: were like four points in the last five two. I
24:15
Speaker 1: think it was Trey Young doesn't have that explosiveness allows
24:19
Speaker 1: the Bucks to play that switch a lot more that
24:21
Speaker 1: they that they showed in and in that last game,
24:24
Speaker 1: and I would feel more optimistic about the hawks chances
24:29
Speaker 1: of salvaging this if bogged On Bogdanovich wasn't playing on
24:31
Speaker 1: one leg. I mean he's he's cooked, man. I mean
24:35
Speaker 1: he he moved a little bit better last game, I
24:37
Speaker 1: would say, but still, I mean he cannot create, beat
24:42
Speaker 1: guys off the dribble, even shoot uh, you know, clean
24:45
Speaker 1: jump jump shots at this point, right, So he's that
24:48
Speaker 1: other safety valve, that other outlet. If Trey Young isn't
24:52
Speaker 1: quite a hundred percent, he's the guy that needs to
24:54
Speaker 1: step up and carry that offense. He's not capable that
24:57
Speaker 1: he's still playing that through that shordany so clearly limited.
25:01
Speaker 1: So they're running out of options, man. Their wing, their
25:04
Speaker 1: wing options are so depleted right now. No, DeAndre Hunter,
25:08
Speaker 1: you can't really play Tony Snell or Solomon Hill that
25:10
Speaker 1: that much. Um, you know, bogged On playing on one leg,
25:14
Speaker 1: It's it's rough, man. So without Trey Young, it's like
25:18
Speaker 1: Lou Williams point Kevin Herder um Man, It's it's rough.
25:23
Speaker 1: It's rough out here for for Atlanta, just a terrible,
25:26
Speaker 1: terrible injury for for Trey So Matt Moore. Right now,
25:31
Speaker 1: you can get Bucks to beat the Clippers at plus
25:34
Speaker 1: seven hundred. You can get Sons to beat the Bucks
25:38
Speaker 1: at plus one. You can get Bucks to beat the
25:43
Speaker 1: Suns at plus you can get Clippers to beat the
25:47
Speaker 1: Box at plus hundred. Which one of those, to you
25:55
Speaker 1: presents the best value? I mean, I think the best
25:58
Speaker 1: value probably just because of the number, has to be
26:00
Speaker 1: Bucks to beat Clippers, based off of getting that high
26:03
Speaker 1: of a number. I like the Suns to win the series,
26:06
Speaker 1: but that's the shortest number that you're gonna get. Like,
26:09
Speaker 1: I like both of those positions. I already have a
26:12
Speaker 1: Bucks to beat Suns ticket from two rounds ago. I
26:15
Speaker 1: love this matchup for either one of these teams. Uh.
26:18
Speaker 1: If we look back at the Bucks, the two teams
26:20
Speaker 1: that they've lost to the last two seasons, the Toronto Raptors,
26:23
Speaker 1: with an absolutely elite defense, able to throw a million
26:25
Speaker 1: different looks out at them. They built a brilliant defensive
26:28
Speaker 1: scheme with Nick Nurse the Miami. He copied a lot
26:31
Speaker 1: of that, and through in zone last year with Erik Spoelstra.
26:34
Speaker 1: There isn't a defense remaining that's at that level. There
26:38
Speaker 1: just isn't. The Sons is the best remaining and we're
26:41
Speaker 1: seeing it like if you can't defend at a high level,
26:44
Speaker 1: Janice is just going to run through like a free drain.
26:46
Speaker 1: He is just a monster right now. Nobody can build
26:50
Speaker 1: the wall like the Clippers certainly can't even before the injuries.
26:54
Speaker 1: This defense is not very good. Uh, the Sun's defense
26:57
Speaker 1: is better, and I have I'm trying to write my
27:00
Speaker 1: head around what it's gonna be like when Janice is
27:02
Speaker 1: owing versus eighton. But I don't think Aiden has the
27:05
Speaker 1: foot speed um Chris Melton Drew Holiday honestly should. They
27:10
Speaker 1: both have some of the worst shooting performances versus expectation
27:13
Speaker 1: in the playoffs already. Now that's been a consistent trend
27:16
Speaker 1: with the Bucks. But I think overall, I think there's
27:18
Speaker 1: great value on the Bucks to be either one of
27:20
Speaker 1: those teams, because I think the Bucks are clearly the
27:22
Speaker 1: best remaining team and her best balanced on both sides
27:25
Speaker 1: of the ball. So fan separate question, Let's say that
27:31
Speaker 1: it ends up being the Sons in the Bucks in
27:34
Speaker 1: the finals. Right now, you're getting Jannice said about what
27:39
Speaker 1: is that minus one fifteen plus one fifteen to be
27:44
Speaker 1: m v P And you're getting looks like Devin Booker
27:50
Speaker 1: at plus three hundred. But I can get Chris Middleton
27:54
Speaker 1: a plus six d I can get DeAndre Aton at
28:00
Speaker 1: about plus three? Would I plus three? Why would I
28:07
Speaker 1: not start betting those if that's what I think is
28:11
Speaker 1: going to happen. If though, if it's gonna be the
28:14
Speaker 1: Bucks in the suns, I wouldn't presume that just yet,
28:19
Speaker 1: I would be betting the butt side. Um I I probably.
28:24
Speaker 1: I mean Middleton makes some sense, but I mean they
28:26
Speaker 1: do have a lot of options in Jay Crowder, Michael Bridges,
28:30
Speaker 1: Tory Craig to throw out throughout his way. So I
28:33
Speaker 1: think if it sets up really well for you, honest
28:35
Speaker 1: to be that guy, assuming the Bucks go the finals,
28:38
Speaker 1: the value in the market in terms of the Western
28:40
Speaker 1: Conference series right now is on the Clippers, even though
28:43
Speaker 1: I'm not saying they're gonna win the series, but I
28:46
Speaker 1: just think the value is with them right now. So
28:48
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be betting really sounds anything at this point.
28:51
Speaker 1: I think they're a little bit overpriced. Um So if
28:55
Speaker 1: you're looking at m v P futures, I probably just
28:58
Speaker 1: look at your honest But I think he's that's a
29:01
Speaker 1: that's a good price on him already, So I'm not
29:03
Speaker 1: sure there's a ton of value there overall the finals results,
29:06
Speaker 1: that's the better price right now. If you like the Clippers,
29:08
Speaker 1: like taking them plus seven hundred against the Bucks or
29:11
Speaker 1: taking them against um uh, like just the Clippers beating
29:15
Speaker 1: the Bucks either way. If if you like the Clippers
29:17
Speaker 1: to come back against the Suns, that's where the value
29:19
Speaker 1: is not Taking a plus four hundred. Like I said earlier,
29:20
Speaker 1: that's definitely a way better number because it kind of
29:23
Speaker 1: feels like we know Atlanta is not getting through. The
29:25
Speaker 1: funny thing is we talked two weeks ago and Chris
29:27
Speaker 1: Max kind of poop pood me when I said, can
29:29
Speaker 1: we take Chris Paul to be m v P because
29:31
Speaker 1: his value was crazy? It was like, what was the chat?
29:33
Speaker 1: Was it fifteen to one or twenty to one? It
29:35
Speaker 1: was something crazy like that for him to be finals
29:37
Speaker 1: m v P. So it's one of those where I'm
29:39
Speaker 1: I'm thinking two about that because I have his son's
29:41
Speaker 1: future and I have that bet where it's like, these
29:43
Speaker 1: are things that I have to hedge out, but I'm
29:44
Speaker 1: just gonna keep wait. I'm gonna waitunill game seven. It
29:46
Speaker 1: really starts sweating that because I'm hoping that Moore is
29:49
Speaker 1: right and I'm hoping this is over, because if the
29:51
Speaker 1: Clippers do win this next game, it is they're definitely
29:54
Speaker 1: losing Game seven. The songs I am. I'm heavily laborage
29:59
Speaker 1: on the Suns who win the s So I am
30:01
Speaker 1: very pro sons at this point. I have eight to
30:03
Speaker 1: win the West, five and a half to want to
30:05
Speaker 1: win the West, UM a couple others too, So I'm
30:09
Speaker 1: hoping the Sun's hold on. But Tyler was giving me
30:13
Speaker 1: a sweat. And you know, Matt match with ten and
30:15
Speaker 1: two as a coach in games when its team has
30:18
Speaker 1: a chance to be eliminated, best in NBA history. I mean, now,
30:21
Speaker 1: do doc rivers? Now? Do doc rivers? Doc doc rivers?
30:25
Speaker 1: Twenty nine losses with a chance to clinch a playoff series,
30:28
Speaker 1: most losses by a coach in NBA history. And I
30:32
Speaker 1: think it's so funny how this worked out. Where the
30:36
Speaker 1: Clippers of old were that team when when things got
30:40
Speaker 1: tough when the stakes got high, They're not only folded
30:44
Speaker 1: like a chair, they self imploded in spectacular fashion. Right.
30:49
Speaker 1: And you know, their coach, Doc Rivers ends up leaving
30:53
Speaker 1: going to Philadelphia, and the Clippers are pointing to them
30:56
Speaker 1: like that was us, that was us, that was us,
30:59
Speaker 1: that we were the team that when things got tough,
31:02
Speaker 1: we fold and we collapsed. We blew a big lead, right,
31:05
Speaker 1: And I mean, the difference between Doc Rivers and Tylu
31:09
Speaker 1: has been you know, just I don't know, it's it's
31:13
Speaker 1: it's massive. It's the difference, um between this this this
31:16
Speaker 1: year's Clippers team and last year's Clippers team. Honestly, Well, look,
31:20
Speaker 1: fan wants the Sons because he's invested. More wants the
31:23
Speaker 1: Sons because he's invested, and he hates Tylu. Simon Hunter
31:28
Speaker 1: wants the Sons because he's invested. I want the Sons
31:31
Speaker 1: because I'm a Chris Paul fan, and I'm a fan
31:34
Speaker 1: of people who have long careers and perform at very
31:38
Speaker 1: high levels getting an opportunity to play for a championship.
31:43
Speaker 1: Uh So, it feels like we're all gonna be Sons
31:45
Speaker 1: fans and we're all gonna be on the edge of
31:47
Speaker 1: our seats as we see the Suns try to close
31:50
Speaker 1: this thing out. Uh later in the week, Justin Fans,
31:54
Speaker 1: all this all this, by the way, all this Clippers talk,
31:58
Speaker 1: all this tylu um eumping them up. It's just like
32:01
Speaker 1: me preempting, like an emotional hedge, just because just to
32:05
Speaker 1: prepare myself when I burn my eight to one, when
32:08
Speaker 1: I burned my Facon one tickets. Um, it's just me
32:12
Speaker 1: preparing myself. This is just nothing makes me happier when
32:16
Speaker 1: than when Justin Fan admits to add to emotion and worry.
32:21
Speaker 1: That is something that I always look forward to. You
32:25
Speaker 1: can get more of this if you watch Heat Check
32:28
Speaker 1: on Action Network h Q usually Tuesday and Thursday evenings
32:34
Speaker 1: during the playoffs, UM around seven o'clock usually Matt Moore,
32:39
Speaker 1: Actual Network Senior analysts Simon Hunter, my friend, my BFF,
32:45
Speaker 1: my lonely Hearts. Thank you for being on the podcast.
32:48
Speaker 1: This has been the Favorites podcast from the Volume podcast Network.
32:53
Speaker 1: We will be back on Thursday with the Thursday Thunderdome.
32:56
Speaker 1: Download us from Apple, podcast, from Spotify wherever you get
32:59
Speaker 1: your podcasts. Until next time, I love you,