Latest / Financial Survival Network / Layoffs, Layoffs, Layoffs with John Rubino #5795

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Layoffs, Layoffs, Layoffs with John Rubino #5795 · Financial Survival Network

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Welcome you are listening to watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host carry
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Lust. Well, John Rabino is with us for our bi weekly chat.
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And well, John, if this isn't a slowdown, I read today that
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layoffs are quadruple what they wear last year. And of course nobody's talking about
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it, but you got tech layoffs at every major tech company in the country
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except maybe Tesla hasn't announced any layoffs yet. But how far can they be
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off? Yeah, it does seem like everybody's laying people off. Um,
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well, you know, Blos quarter GDP was up only one point one percent,
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or at a rate of one point one percent, which means the economy
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is almost at stalling speed already, so it's not a surprise they're layoffs.
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But pretty much everywhere you look there are signs of the slowdown right now because
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pending home sales just went down for the first time since November. Lumber lumber
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prices are plunging because of pending home sales being down. You know, commercial
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real estate. I think we talked about commercial real estate last time, right,
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but it's um, it's in a crisis. You know, at least
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certain sectors of commercial real estate are. Oil gave back its m post OPEC
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surprise production cut jump. You know, it's almost back down to where it
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was before that, and that's probably because of the slowing economy. And you
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know, the big one is that the the M two money supply continue us
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to go down. And I posted a thing called you can't you can't taper
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a Ponzi scheme the other day, and the point is that, yeah,
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we're we're we've cut off the money spicket. There isn't new money being created
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in order to roll over debt and bailout people who need bailouts. And so
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that means somebody, some sectors of the economy just won't get the money they
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need to survive and they're going to start blowing out. The commercial real estate
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is an obvious one, but a lot of lenders are either cutting off car
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dealers completely from credit or are making it really hard for car buyers to get
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the loans on, especially to use cars. So you've seen stuff like that
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all through the economy. And what that means is lots of people are going
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to be able to borrow or are not going to be able to roll over
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debt, and a lot of them are going to go bankrupt. They're going
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to stiff their creditors will then go bankruptcy, get one of these cascade failure
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things going when you try to shrink the money supply and it's um it's not
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clear that they're doing anything to reverse that. In fact, the FED and
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the ECB are scheduled to raise rates on May fourth, so watch that day.
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That's gonna be a big day if if inflation comes out I think on
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May second, at least for the EU, and then the central banks raise
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interest rates in the face of whatever the inflation number is. Then that's probably
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going to scare the equity markets, or at least sober up the equity markets,
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because you know, stocks have going back up. They're almost back up
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to where they were before the last bear markets started, and that's not normally
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how it should be heading into a recession. So I think very good chance
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of some financial sectors blowing up on a level that's big enough to need a
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government bailout and an equities bear market at the same time. So the second
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half of this year it could be a lot scarier than the first half has
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been so far. Yeah, and it's been pretty scary, that's for sure.
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Well, we can pretty much anticipate that when this happens going to happen
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in the first quarter. It's going to happen like September October. But one
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thing I noticed with the Nick Santiago from In the Money Stocks is we started
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a peculiar phenomena, and that is market crash is taking place during holidays.
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We had a couple of them over the past six months. We never used
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to get a crash during a holiday weekend, the three day weekend where the
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A team basically goes off to their Hampton's jaunts and leaves it to the B
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team and the C team to keep things going for a day. Now,
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I don't think they're going off to the Hampton so quick when the holidays come
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because something has happened to the market where these crashes have started to occur.
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Uh. Yeah, And what's our next holiday to test that pieces is it
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the fourth of July Memorial Day and that's also urban week in the Miami so
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it's a great time to not come to Miami. O Week I could have
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heard about. Is that is that sequel to Mayo or is that a hip
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hop festival that it was? Okay, you just leave it at that,
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Okay, yeah, alright, So layoffs are are just through the roof oil
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price is getting and more importantly, money supply going down, deficit going up,
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that sucks up all the available dollars. We get to have like a
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dollar shortage year where we really do have deflation. John, Well, that's
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um, that is kind of what we're saying. Because if if everybody needs
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to roll over debt or to um to borrow to buy something, and they
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only need dollars for that, right, and that if we're shrinking the supply
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of dollars, then you know, logically you could say that, well,
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interest rates have to go up, the dollar exchange rate will probably go up
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relative to other currencies, and so you get a tightening of one share conditions
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that way. So that might be how shrinking money supply manifests in the economy
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via a tightening of monetary conditions in a lot of different places, in a
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lot of different ways. And yeah, that wouldn't be a surprise. So
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it could be that this, this coincides with a quote unquote strong dollar and
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that you know, however you slice it from there, the effects are really
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bad. Yeah. Yeah, and they're global in scope here. This isn't
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just one country having an issue, John, this is the whole world.
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Well, almost everybody is tightening. And you know, the ECB is the
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shocking one. I wasn't really paying attention to found it, but they wrote
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they could. They raised their version of the Fed funds rate from the negative
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point five percent to three percent in less than a year, which is a
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really fast increase in interest rates. And a lot of a periphery countries in
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Europe, the pigs countries, which is what Portugal, Italy, Greece and
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Spain. Yeah, and that anyhow, their interest rates, especially on their
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ten year treasury bonds, have gone way up. Italy's is up in the
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floors now. So this is a country that's so over over leveraged that it
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had to have interest rates pushed by the ECB down to below what the US
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Treasury pays to borrow for it to survive financially. All of the sudden,
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it's paying four point three five percent or something like that on ten year money.
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Who in the right mind would lend Italy money for ten years even at
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four point three five percent, You know you're liable to see a negative fifty
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percent return on those bonds. So it's possible that this is a bigger problem
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for Europe, for the Eurozone in particular, than it is from the US,
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because so many of the weak Eurozone countries just won't be able to survive
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under these circumstances. And think about it. Would you loan money to Germany
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at two point three percent and not get his high a return, or would
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you learn it to Italy at four point three Well, see, that's that's
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an interesting thing out because let's talk about Germany. They used to be the
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country that got ever relied of everybody in the world. Germany was probably the
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best managed country at one time. Yes, but since then they've been making
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dumb mistake after dumb mistake. They basedly went to uh Well, when they
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formed the Eurozone, they opened borders internally, so you had free movement from
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one European country to another's the same way that Americans go from one state to
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another. But apparently a German assistance, they opened their external borders too and
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just let millions of North African refugees and other kinds of immigrants come in.
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And then once hit in, you know, once they land on a beach
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in Greece or Italy, they had unfettered internal momility within the Eurozone, so
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they could all go to Paris in London. You know, that created a
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lot of political turmoil where you've got these right wing parties that are anti immigration
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gaining popularity all over Europe. And those guys are also euroskeptics, so they're
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not really wetted to the idea of staying in the euro Zone at all.
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And then while your while Germany was doing that, they decided to close down
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all their nuclear plants and go to one M renewables and Russian natural gas.
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Very clear that turned out that renewables like solar and wind don't work all that
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well in a cloudy, not very windy country like Germany, so they didn't
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get nearly what they thought they were going to get from from clean tech.
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And then you know, with the German earther with the pipeline running natural gas
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to Germany from Russia. Um, can I say the US blew up that
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pipeline, because we we all know they did, But I don't think it's
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really official yet, and I don't want to get you banned, so I'm
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not going to say that. But yeah, yeah, but anyhow, Um,
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that pipeline got blown up. So now Germany is not getting enough gas
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from Russia to satisfy its needs, it's not getting enough electricity from solar and
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wind to satisfy its needs, and it's it's in kind of an energy crisis
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for having to close down big sections of its industrial economy. So where the
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rest of the Eurozone could function because for instance, Italian and Greek bonds were
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seen as German bonds. Yes, and with the German economy backing up the
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ECB, that's no longer necessarily the case because Germany might not have the ability
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to bail out a trillion dollar economy like Italy, and definitely not if you
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you know, if you include all the pigs countries at once blowing up,
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it's not clear that Germany via the ECB could bail out all of those guys
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without crashing the Euro. So they might have a bigger problem from turning off
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the money's pigot than the US does. And you know, we've got a
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big problem. So that's saying something. But if Europe and the US both
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have basically the same kind of Ponzi scheme death spiral that it looks like is
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a complete possibility right now, Van who knows what happens in the global economy,
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This is a big deal. You know, we have not seen anything
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micos in our lifetimes. Between the US and EU, forty five percent of
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global economic activity. All right, they're closing factories in China. There's a
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couple of YouTube channels where they went around the ports to look at the empty
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containers and literally it's empty containers as far as the eye can see. I
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mean, it could be a good opportunity. You know, there were those
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companies that were converting containers into houses, into small houses. You stack them
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up, you put them next to each other. So it could be a
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big opportunity in the reusable container housing market in China. But outside of that,
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I don't see much much rights, you know. And then you've got
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also the decoupling of the US and China which is also taking place, and
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I would say the West is decoupling to some extent from and then you've got
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the failure of the Chinese Belt and Road initiative. Basically, they invested all
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this money, they loan people money. It's like it's like a chapter out
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of the Confessions of an economic hit Man, the Belt and Road Initiative,
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Yet everyone into hawk loan the money, wait for them to default and then
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take over the Country's kind of like what the US used to do. When
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you know Guatemala brought to seize the or Costa Rica try to seize the banana
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plantations of US fruit, and you know that's when you get gunboat diplomacy.
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I'm wondering if Beijing is going to relate going to resort to gunboat diplomacy to
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collect all these loans. Another example, right here in the Bahamas, they
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built this huge, huge casino which was totally unnecessary in NASA complex of hotels
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for billions of dollars. China financed it it immediately. The Chinese ex import
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or International bank financed it in immediately went bankrupt because Chinese aren't going to go
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gambling in the Caribbean. That's just not their thing. And you know now
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I guess China owns owns the island just about. Um. You know,
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all these trends taken place here. It's you gotta wonder we're going to see
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that the first quarter collapse or maybe even late summer collapse. You know,
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what you're talking about with China is a variation of vendor financing. In other
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words, if you're selling something, you can loan your customer the money to
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buy it, and that works out great as long as they eventually can pay
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you back. Germany did that in Europe. They ran trad serpluses with all
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the picks countries and now a lot about depth is Germany is just going to
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have to eat it. China did the same thing with the Belton Road initigive,
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where you know, there are big sections of the developing world that it
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will never be able to pay China back, and so China is going to
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have to come in and take over these gigantic assets, which is going to
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raise I mean, that's like back when the West owned all the energy assets
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of the Middle East, for instance, and eventually those countries rose up and
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nationalize those assets. So China might be looking at something like that if they
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if they don't play nights. You know, they're going to have to extend
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and pretend on a lot of this debt to avoid countries just electing nationalists who
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nationalize the assets, and then China's out in the cold with the only option
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to invade or something, and they didn't want to do that. That's a
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US thing, you know, we had no problem invading other countries and murdering
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bail leaders. Felt China doesn't seem to want to do that. I don't
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pay. Yeah. Well, what's interesting also is that there's an additional motivation
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behind the Belt and the Road initiative is that it's a way to get money
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out of China. All right. You don't want to make money on these
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projects because then you have to send money back to China. You want to
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lose money. So then you get what authorized transfers out of China to these
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countries, and when there's a loss, who knows how much they're really losing.
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So it's a great opportunity to get flight capital out of China and invested
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in the Western real estate, whatever you want to do. So the motivation
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has always, in my opinion, this is a unique opinion to meet,
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has always been in these projects the Belton Road to lose as much money as
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possible. You know, it's like that to show the producers, remember so
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Zero Mustell and Phil Silver. They figure out, you don't want to make
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money in a Broadway play, you want to lose it. And then you
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get all this investment in from all these rich widows and you lose the money.
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You say sorry, honey, and that's what happened. But then the
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thing turns into a success and they wind up having to pay all these investors,
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and of course that's when they find out it was a big Ponzi scheme.
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So the key here is the goal is all these projects outside of China
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is to fail, but not fail so much that the government has to come
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in. Fail enough so you can keep siphoning money out of China and into
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the West. That's my theory. Okay, it sounds like an official version
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of capital flight, right. They're just shipping as much capital outside the country
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as they can in anticipation of bad things happening internally and stuff. You know,
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in today's world. That isn't even the top five crazy ideas. Hey,
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the top crazy idea is RFK Junior is going to challenge Biden now Look,
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if it's an honest primary, I believe that RFK would probably win.
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Well, we're not going to be any debates, and there probably won't be
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any TV he'll be he'll be barred, they'll send him. The only interview
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he'll be able to get is on Tucker Carlson's website. Well, you know
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that that's true. Nobody will will talk to him in the mainstream media.
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And but you know what, you go on Tucker Carlson's website and Joe Rogan
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and you've been seen by ten times as many people as would see you if
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you went on CNN or MSNBC. So I think, for the first time
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ever, the alternative media is big enough to do an end run around the
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mainstream media. So you know, it's completely possible that And another reason why
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it's possible is that he appeals to both right and left because his the holy
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anti vaccine thing he did plays very well with him Fox's current audience and with
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libertarians. You know, there's an awful lot of people out there who believe
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he's been he's been right and fout he's been wrong, which means he gets
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a very broad based potential audience. And you're right, if he ever debated
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Biden, he'd make forty points of you know, up that day, you
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know, because Biden really shouldn't be doing debates right now against anybody and doing
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them, you know, and Um Kennedy is articulate with a really good memory
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for facts, figures and details, so he would he would be throwing real
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um facts and figures at Biden, who will be coming back with stories about
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corn pop and stuff like that, you know, from from when he was
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seventeen years old. And I think it would be ugly. It'll be very
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ugly at in the meantime, like all of these uh ev personalities are getting
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fired. Don Laman on CNN the canned him because he misogynist. I don't
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know, and I don't know exactly what that means in his case, but
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evidently he didn't play well with his colleagues. Ucker Carlson has shown the door.
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What do you think about Pucker Carlson? Tucker Carlson, I think I
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think it was inevitable because he was so far off the reservation, because he
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was anti war when the entire mainstream media is in favor of the Ukraine War.
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He's anti immigration, m a in a way that makes sense when a
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huge chunk of the mainstream is is pro immigration. What else? There were
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three, three or four other things where the anti big Pharma. Oh,
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that's right. Basically like the week before he got fired, he went on
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a rant about Big Pharma owning the media seventy percent of their advert That could
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have won right there. If somebody have him see event that, it would
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have been over. That's it, I said, that is it. And
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then he'd have these outside the mainstream guests on, like Jimmy Door and and
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like RFK Junior, and yeah, that's that's right. He got fired right
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after the RFK interview. Yeah, so I'm sure it was a confluence of
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the events, but he never invited you or me on which was taking the
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stake. Might have gotten him fired a couple of year earlier, John,
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if he invited us, Yeah, yeah, well, well maybe his website
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will be more around well or open to alternative voices. Even Jimmy the Jimmy
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dor thing. Everybody who's listening to this who didn't hear the Jimmy dor thing,
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go check that out. It was astounding to hear something like that on
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in mainstream media. Yeah, and I don't know who's agree with Jimmy dor
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I think he's a useful idiot sometimes, but he does because mind, he's
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not holding to anyone, and he makes some really good points. I used
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to watch him every day a few years back. But you know, I
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believe what's going to happen now is there has been no heir to Rush Limbaugh.
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Okay, now, rush Limba is more of a doctrinaire Republican Conservative,
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but in his later years realized the futility of that party and the corruption of
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it. But when he went basically the right completely lost its way. Typer
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Carlson's more of a right slash libertarian rethinker. But I see this as his
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opportunity, or perhaps at the natural transfer for the evolution of the party from
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rush Limbaugh to Typer Carlson. Yeah, and Carrie, he'll be able to
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do it with with multimedia, you know, he will have access to so
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much more in terms of delivery than rush Lima ever did. So. Yeah,
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I mean you saw his He did this little podcast thing the day afterally
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got five million views. Yeah it's up to fifty seven million now. Oh
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really, so he normally got three thousand views or three to sorry, three
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million views, and so he got almost ten times as many viewers with a
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podcast then his show on Fox Scott. So yeah, it's gonna be ganuiney
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three. He has had liberated to actually really come his own platform or affiliate
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with another platform, but basically running. I know you have to go in
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any event, make sure you go to John's site Robino substack dot com,
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subscribed to his material and send us emails k L at Kerryletz dot com,
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leave comments on the YouTube below, and John, we'll talk to you in
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a couple of weeks. Thanks, sure, talk to you. Thanks for
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