Latest / Toadstool Sports / Mets/Reds MLB + NFL + WNBA Best Bets Sunday 9/7/25

Transcript

Mets/Reds MLB + NFL + WNBA Best Bets Sunday 9/7/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: We are on Own seven run over the last two
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: days after tonight it was just complete bullshit. So that's
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible Sunday one
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: and five.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: four that have not had a good season.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Burn my browins hat man, I don't know what is
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: going on with the bruins arch hape?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: Could possibly have, I'm back with you as I always
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: am until I die.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: At least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: To the slump, the slump discontinues, the slump continues.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: It's towed back with you. This is the Sunday Show,
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: September seventh. If you want NFL, I do separate football videos.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: So I did the NFL Show late last night, so
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: you canna want the deeper analysis on that. I talked
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: about every game, so you can go check that out.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: Thanks for everybody that hung out with me last night
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: for that. Yesterday was a five two and one day
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: on the show. I mean it should have been better
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: than that, to be honest, I rehashed it last night.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: But baseball, I mean, we started out with the win
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: on the Yankees, unfortunately for me because I don't like
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, but they got the win on the first
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: five innings for my play, and they did.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Win the game outright too.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: Then the under in the Mets Reds game wound up
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: being a push. It looked like it was dead early
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: then middle of the game, there weren't many runs score,
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: and it looked like it was gonna actually hit, and
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: then it wound up being a push.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I mean that one was a.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: Bit of a roller coaster, could have could have done
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: either way really, and then the most frustrating one was
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: the Houston Texas game. Obviously I mean Houston Texas. I
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: mean I thought that Texas would be the bullpen to
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: carry us to that under there.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: The starting pitching was a duel.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: Like I thought, if we'd gone first five innings under,
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: it would have hit, which frustrates me even more man
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: trying to decide between first five and full game. It
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: is so frustrating when you when one hits and the
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: other doesn't, you're on the wrong one. I didn't expect
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: Texas' bullpen to be the one that imploded, and that's
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: what happened as Houston, I think, scored eight runs in
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: the final two winnings of the game to win eleven
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: and nothing and push it way over When they were winning,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: I believe they were only winning three to nothing going
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: into the eighth innings, so it looked like the under
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: was a sure thing at that point, and Houston's was
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: the bullpen I was more worried about. I mean, it's
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: ridiculous because they were the less rested pen. It might
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: be a different scenario today though. And then we did
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: get the under in the first five in the Dodgers
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: Orioles game. The way that game ended was crazy. I mean,
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: I talked about it last night, but I don't even
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: think I like talked about the full extent of how
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: ridiculous it was. Yamamoto was one out away from a
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: no hitter with a three to nothing lead.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: He gave up a home run.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: I think they took him out, and then the bullpen
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: proceeded to lose the game and the Orioles won four
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: to three.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: So the Orioles went from.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: Being down three to nothing on their final out about
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: to be no hit to winning the game in a
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: walk off in that same inning. It's insane. The Dodgers,
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: they can't get it right, man. I mean, I'm not
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: sad about it, not really like the Dodgers, but it's ridiculous.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: And then college football, we had a good weekend.
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: We went three and one in college football yesterday four
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: and one, including the Friday night game that was also
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: a winner.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: So yesterday we had Troy where it.
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: Looked like Troy might actually pull off an outright upset
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: for a while until Clemson decided to get their act
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: together after Troy was beating them sixteen to nothing. I
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: think Clemson scored most of the rest of the points
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: in that game to win the game, but never came
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: close to covering. I don't even think they scored enough
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: points to even cover in a shutout.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: And the same thing happened later with LSU.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: LSU didn't even score enough points to even cover the
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: number if they had pitched a shutout, and they didn't
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: be because Louisiana Tech scored a touchdown in garbage time
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: at the end to avoid a shutout and get on
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: the boards. That was a wire to wie our easy
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: cover on that one with Louisiana Tech. We took a
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: loss on Middle Tennessee, which was a bit annoying. I mean,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: they were down fourteen to ten at halftime, looked like
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: they were gonna be within that number. I mean it
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: was a four touchdown spread, and then they basically didn't
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: score again. I think they scored one more time and
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: they still only failed to cover by maybe three points
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: or something like that, and they were driving towards the
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: end of the game. It's just like kick a field goal, man,
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: let's just cover the spread here.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: But I think they.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: Turned the ball over something like that because they were
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: trying to score a Touchdownugh, So that one, even that
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: one was close like the losses yesterday were, and the
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: push obviously was close. With the losses yesterday probably shouldn't
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: have been losses. And then we did get a win
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: on Rutgers, which was a little bit dicey. Earlier in
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: the game they were kind of alternating between being ahead
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: by ten ahead by seventeen, but they kind of ran
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: away with it at the end of the game, so
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: that worked out.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about today.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: I had to have three NFL plays, which are all
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: very contrariant, and you guys probably hate them all. You
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: can go watch my analysis on the show. I won't
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: re on the show from last night. I won't rehash
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: it here because we've got to talk about baseball. We
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: have the Jets plus three, the Giants plus six, and
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: Houston Texans plus three. I can go see my analysis
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: on those from in last night's show, and I'll do
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: like short Instagram videos in a little while so you
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: can see those two, We're gonna have two baseball players
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: today as well. We do have afternoon baseball today. We
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: do have WNBA as well, which I'm gonna talk about first.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: Not terribly interesting although Indiana is playing it. It seems like
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Indiana is now seemingly saying that Caitlin Clark isn't even
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: gonna be back for the playoffs if they make the playoffs.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: So you got to question, like, what is their like
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: mindset gonna be here if they know that if they
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs, which I think is somewhat likely right now,
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: because they have a two to two and a half
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: game edge over the Sparks, who also played today and
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: are a big favorite though, so it'll be interesting if
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: Indiana loses and LA wins, then the gap closes a
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: little bit interesting because Indiana has one more game after this,
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: they could technically still I think, fail to make the playoffs,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: in LA could still get in, but I think Indiana
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: has to lose all the rest of their games and
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: LA has to win all the rest of their So
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: it's unlikely, but I think that's the scenario there. But Indiana, like,
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: what's their mindset, Like, are they gonna be really focused?
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: On the game today because you know, they know Kaitlyn
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Clark's not coming back.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, man, Indiana.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: They did win their last game against Chicago pretty handily though,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: by twenty, so they do seem to still be playing
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: with some sense of purpose, decent basketball. They've been playing
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: decently recently. Now they're going back on the road to
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: face Washington. Washington has been playing really bad. They've been
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: playing like a team that's out of it. They've lost
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: eight games in a row. I think it is what
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: that is. So they're playing like a team that just
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: knows that they're dead. With Indiana coming in, I don't
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: know how much focus Washington will bring because they know
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Kaitlin Clark and Sophie Cunningham aren't there, and Indiana's down
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: from six and a half to six. Hard to really
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: tell which way the money is coming in right now.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Those percentages I don't think are very accurate. Indiana is
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: public seventy five percent of tickets. That makes sense. I mean,
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: no public better is gonna want to take Washington with
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: the way they've been playing. I mean, I'm gonna stay
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: away from it. It's a really difficult game to handicap
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: but I'm not gonna give up a play on any
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: of these LA. I mean, LA obviously is trying to
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: potentially make the playoffs here, so they want to win.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: They are returning home from a road trip, which is
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: a difficult spot. As I always talk about, it tends
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: to be a bit of a distracted spot.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: You have to get back to home life.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: They were coming back from Atlanta, so they're flying basically
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: across the country to come back. But they do get
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: a matchup against one of the worst teams in basketball, Dallas.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: Dallas has lost a bunch of games in a row.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: Now I don't even know, I can't even count that high.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: What is that nine games in a row that they've lost,
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: and they're on a fourth straight game on the road.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: So that's pretty difficult for Dallas as well. So it's
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: not exactly a great spot for Dallas either. LA has
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: dropped a little bit from nine and a half to nine.
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: They're the team that has motivation here, but they're not
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: going to be motivated to win by margin here.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: They just need to win the game. So I mean
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: it is a return.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: Home spot for them. Again, it's a tough game to handicap.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: Man I don't even really want to give out like
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: an opinion on it because I don't really have a
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: strong opinion.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: And then Chicago Vegas this game.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Vegas is playing well, man, They've won so many games
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: in a row at this point, I don't even know
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: how many games. This is thirteen fourteen games in a row.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: They're up in one of the higher playoff seeds. Now
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: they're still playing to get one of the higher seeds.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: They just beat Minnesota, and I told you Minnesota had
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: nothing left to play for there. Minnesota's already locked into
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: the one seed, so that game didn't really matter that
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: much to them. It was a big win for Vegas though.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: Now Vegas is hosting Chicago and they did just win
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: at Chicago. Vegas don't have to worry about not making
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. They do have to worry about potentially like
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: making sure that they get the seed that they want
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs, but I mean that's not really motivation.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: And don't have to cover a spread that's this high.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: They're down from seventeen to sixteen and a half. Maybe
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: this will be a game that Chicago gets up for
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: as they don't have many games left. They just lost
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: by twenty second straight road game. It's a good Vegas team.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Maybe Chicago will show up and play a decent game
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: for once.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: That would be the way I would lean.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: I would lean plus Chicago plus the points in that game.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: But they were definitely also the way worst team though,
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: But it's just Vegas. They don't even have to win
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: by margin here, right, They just could be in a
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: situation where they could just get in get out in Vegas.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: With Becky Hammond, I think as their coach former WNBA player,
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: for I forget which team she was on. Was Was
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: there a San Antonio team? I think there was, and
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: now it's not there anymore. I don't even know, man,
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: but I think I think that's where she was. Maybe
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: am I misremembering all that?
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I don't fucking know.
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: But she's their coach, I believe, and she's known for
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: resting players and games like this, so like if they
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: have a big lead, their starters will probably come out
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: of the game, even though I know Asia Wilson is
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: trying to vie for the MVP, but I think Hammon
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: will still be like resting players if they get into
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: a situation where they have a big lead. Major League
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: Baseball I'm gonna.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Go about two plays, try to get to try to
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: run through this whole card here man.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: Seattle at Atlanta is the first game up at noon Eastern.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: My plays are not going to be until the one
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: pm slate, and then one of them is in like
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: the four pm slate. Atlanta actually got obliterated yesterday ten
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: to two. Waldroupe actually he did okay ish as he's
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: the talented rookie for Atlanta, but he had five walks yesterday,
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: which is unlike him.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: So Atlanta did lose.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: This is now the rubber match of the series. Seattle
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: does have more to play for because they're trying to
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: fight for a playoff spot. Atlanta is pretty much out
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: of it at this point.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: I believe.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: I would say, well, Seattle definitely has the better offense,
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: although they've dropped a little bit down to twelve, so
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: they actually don't have the better offense by that much.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Seattle does have the.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: Better bullpen by a bit as well as you can
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: see here, So just things to take into account there.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: As far as the bullpen you suggests, toy Atlanta did
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: use a bunch of relievers. I know it's September call ups,
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: so the usage doesn't matter as much for Seattle. Pretty
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: lightly used actually, so Seattle's bullpen is in better shape
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: coming into this one. Seattle has Luis Castillo on the mound.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: He's having a pretty good season again, a three point
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: nine to four ERA, one point two to nine whip.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: The whip is a little bit too high though, and
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: he's also way worse on the road. Is basically every
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: Seattle pitcher is five point four ERA on the road.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: That's not good.
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: He's given up five or more in runs and three
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: of his last four outings, so he is not pitching
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: well right now. Man, he is in not very good form.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: His last time out he didn't make it five innings.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: It was at Tampa, so I know it's a difficult
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: stadium to pitch in hit her friendly, but still not
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: a good sign giving up five and runs there. He
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: did have five strikeouts in one walk, so his strike
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: up walk ratio is all right. His command was alright,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: but his ERA was over six in the month of
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: August too, so he's not pitching well right now. His
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: numbers against the Braves are mediocre and one hundred of
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: bats sixteen to eight strike a walk racio is mediocre.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: At best, I mean, it's not very good. Two sixty
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: batting average seven oh five ops is okay, but I
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: don't know that I would trust Castillo in the spot
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: he's up against Spencer Strider for Atlanta. I don't know
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: if Strider is very trustworthy either right now. Though he's
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: the younger pitcher, probably has the higher ceiling out of
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: the two, but his uh, I mean, he has shown
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: glimpses of being his former self, but he's kind of
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: at an injury playing season. He's trying to return from injury,
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: and it hasn't been that great for him. Four point
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: nine to seven e R, one point three to nine WHIP.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: He is a bit better at home four point eight
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: one e RA, which is still not great. Last time
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: out of give up three or in runs at the Cubs,
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: which is decent Cubs, good lineup, but he only had
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: one strikeout and three walks, so his strikeout rate has
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: been way down over his last four starts, which is
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: not a good sign because Strider is a guy that
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: relies on his strikeout stuff and it has not been there.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Atlanta has lost five.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: Starts in a row of his he had he had
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: three or fewer strikeouts and four starts in a row.
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: He's failed to go five innings in four of his
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: last five starts.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, three of his last five.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: He actually made it the last two, but his only
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: really good start was against Miami out of the last two,
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: and even that his strikeout rate was low, had an
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: over ten ERA in August. Yeah, he's just not pitching
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: well right now.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: He's not that good against Seattle either, though it's a
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: small twenty at bat sample size.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: They only have six.
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: Hitters who have faced him before, but they have a
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: three hundred average, one fourteen ops and a couple of
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: home runs off and from can Zone and Robe Bless.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: So I think it could be an over man. I mean,
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: that's kind of what I'm thinking in this game. Even
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: though Seattle's bullpen is still in good shape and pretty good,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: I think there are basically all the other components are
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: there for an over here. Actually, fuck, it looks like
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: Joey Wentz is now pitching for Atlanta, so Strider must
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: be heard or something. Man, So do we have to
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: rehandicap this now? I think if that makes it even
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: more likely to be an over Though, if that's the case,
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: I don't you know me if you watch my show.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: I don't really think Wentz is very good.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: Wentz five point one two ERA this year, one point
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: four or five whip. He has a seven point four
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: to one ERA at home.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Just awful.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: I did have eight strikeouts in one walk last time
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: out at the Cubs, but he give up four and runs,
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: given up four more and runs and two of his
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: last three outings.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't trust Wentz either in the spot.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: The Mariners good numbers against him in thirty six at bats,
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: two seventy eight average, eight twenty two oh ps, a
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: couple of home runs off him, seven to four strike
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio. So this is still an over in
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: my opinion. The total has actually gone up now to ten.
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: I think part of that had to do with the
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: pitching change though to Wentz, because it was in eight
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: and a half. I don't think the money alone would
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: move it that significantly on the total. If you could
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: still find I mean, you probably can't find a nine anymore.
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: It's gone way through the nine. But I would still
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: lean to the over in this game. I won't make
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: it a play, but I think that's the way go here.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: Uh seventy per tickets one hundred percent of the cash
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: on the over. Obviously I don't buy that either, but
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: I think the over is the best way to look
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: at this. Seattle has taken some of the money and
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: the line flipped to Seattle. I think part of the
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: reason is because of the pitching change, Wentz not getting
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: a lot of respect from the the odds makers here,
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: Seattle flipped from plus one thirteen to minus won ten.
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: They're also the only team with really something to play
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: for here, seventy eight percent of tickets ninety eight percent
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. I still I struggled to
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: one to back Castillo in this spot, though, Man, so again,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: I think the over is the way to look there, Stacks,
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out all right Cleveland
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: at Tampa Bay. This is actually a four game series.
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: Or Tampa got the first game and then they lost
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: their long win streak, and I told you that might
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: hang them over until yesterday, and they did lose a
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: close game yesterday. So Cleveland has won two of the
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: three games in the series. Now, Cleveland has the better
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: bullpen out of the two teams, Tampa the better offense
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: out of the two teams.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Tampa a little bit more bullpen usage.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's is a little bit lighter, so Cleveland definitely has
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: a bullpen edge. Started pitching in this game, Parker Messek,
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: the rookie for Cleveland, is going He's got a two
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: point eight RA, which is obviously good, but one point
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: three to three whips.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: His whip is getting a little bit high.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: We're looking at a small sample size here man and
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: his era on the road is three point four to eight,
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: so all the runs he's allowed to be on the
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: road and two starts, and he's now having to pitch
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: at a pretty hitter friendly ballpark here Steinbrenner Field, where
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: Tampa plays, so he might not adapt to this very well.
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: His first two starts of his career were both really good.
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: You give up one earned run across those two starts,
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: But then he came out and did really badly against
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox last time out.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: Give up three earned runs and three and two thirds.
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: Nine hits, allowed two walks, two strikeouts, So he might
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: be starting to fade a little bit here. I mean,
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: that's obviously not a good sign for him, and now
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: going to another pitcher friendly park doesn't seem great.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Also, Tampa has seen him.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: Before, even though he's a rookie, because Tampa was his
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: second start and he did shut them out for seven innings.
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: But I think part of that had to do with
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: the fact that Tampa was unfamiliar with him. And now
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: when you have a rookie pitcher like this and now
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: that lineup is facing him for a second time, the
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: lineup has a little bit more of.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: An advantage of that second time.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: So you have to kind of figure out, like, does
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: Messik actually match up well against them, or did he
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: have a huge edge because he was unfamiliar to them,
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: and now Tampa will turn it around and hit him better.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: That's the decision you got to make here.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: Tampa does only have a one sixty seven average three
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: seventy five ohps off I mean those twenty four at bats,
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: six strikeouts, no walks, and one extra base hit a
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: double from who else Diaz. But again, I think Mesic
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: will do at least a little bit worse in this game.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: Du Rassmus that is pitching for Tampa two point seven
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: to four point nine to seven whip. He's having a
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: good season and they're managing his pitches pretty well. They're
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: not letting him go that.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: Deep into games.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: He's a fishing with his pitches, so he usually gets
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: you through five six innings and doesn't throw that many pitches.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: His ERA is almost the same home and away home
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: road split. Solid as far as how consistent he is.
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: He's given up well before last start where you give
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: up three on runs to Seattle, all on solo home runs,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: so he got maybe a little bit unlucky there in
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: this home run friendly stadium here. He'd allowed two or
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: fewer on runs in how many straight starts as that, well,
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: some of those weren't starts though, so I would I'll
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: go seven straight starts, so he was not allowing many
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: runs at all over that span, so he is in
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: good form. Man in August had a one point five
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: to three ERA in twenty six to three strike up
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. He's held Cleveland's offense way down in his
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: career in twenty eight at bats, not a huge sample,
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: but eight to one strike up walk ratio, one forty
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: three average, three point fifteen ops, so very low OPS.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: So Rasmussen has done really well against Cleveland. I would
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: lean to Tampa in this game, maybe keep it to
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: the first five innings. The money is coming in on Tampa.
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't love the Bullpen's situation how it
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: sets up for Tampa. I think Cleveland does have the
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: advantage there. So the the biggest advantage for Tampa, I
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: actually think is the starting pitching here. Tampa up for
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: minus one forty three to minus one fifty one, sixty
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on them, ninety six percent of the
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: cash coming in on them, So the money coming in
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: on Tampa a bit there. You'd probably have to go
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: run line to get the price down for Tampa, either
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: on the full game or in the first five. But
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: or for full game you have to maybe split the
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: run line and money line half the bet each. But again,
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: I think first five might be the biggest advantage they
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: have there. Oh boy, it is raining out too, man.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: Something to keep in mind with the Patriots game today.
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: It is raining up here and it's somewhat cool, So
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know that might affect it because I well,
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: I talked about it last night. I said, I think
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: the under might be worth a look in the Patriots
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: Raiders game here. The weather might help that out, even
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: though I know when it's slicks surfaces.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: Sometimes that actually helps the offense.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: But if it's raining like this in bad conditions, that
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: can kind of affect like the throat, so it'll bring
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: the total down probably too low though, so maybe there
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: won't be any value anymore, and playing the under because
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: when it's raining like this, the total will drop because
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: it does mostly affect the offense more so than the defense.
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: What else is they even gonna say here?
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: I don't even know Dodgers at Baltimore. Of course, Baltimore
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: had that ridiculous, dramatic win after it went from La
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: having a no hitter with one out to go to
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: the Orioles winning the game on a walk off, totally
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: crazy and scoring four runs in the ninth.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: They need to do it, Dodgers.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, you gotta figure they're gonna come out motivated
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: after that, though, because they're about to get swept on
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: the road by both Pittsburgh and Baltimore. That would be
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: unbelievably embarrassing for a team like the Dodgers, and they're
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: still trying to hang on to this lead in the division,
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: which by the way, Cleveland and Tampa Bay they both
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: don't really have anything left to play for, So that
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: comes down to kind of a matter of those teams
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: playing out the stretcher, though Tampa I think is better
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: than what the record looks. As I keep saying Cleveland
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: is not as good anyway, La, I do think the
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: Dodgers is gonna come up with some motivation here man.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: After that, there's still the better team, especially with the offense.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: They have the better offense.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: We know this.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: Their bullpen is a little bit better as well, and
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: they use less of their bullpen yesterday. They're not by much,
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: but a little bit less than Baltimore did. Although Baltimore
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: really just only used a long relief man. So bullpen's
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: are somewhat of a wash. Although I think the Dodgers'
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: bullpen is actually maybe the slightly better one, even though
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: they haven't been that good this year. Baltimore's is a
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: very good. Yeah, so I'm correct about that. You can
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: see the bullpenny ras right here. They're like point three
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: runs better. And then we have started pitching here. Clayton
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: Kershaw pitching for the Dodgers.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: He's having a.
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: Decent season, shortened season that he's had so far, he's
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: still pitching pretty effectively. Three point two eightyr, one point
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: one to eight whip he's in better on the road
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: to three point one eight ERA. Did you give up
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: four and runs last time out against Pittsburgh though, which
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: is a little bit concerning four walks in that game,
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate is obviously down from what it
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: used to be in his career, but I mean that's
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: expected given how old he is. But he was effective
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: up until that last start. He giving up one or
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: fewer earned runs in four of the previous five and
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: the only start where you give up more was three
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: earned runs allowed against Colorado on the road at that
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: hitter friendly ballpark in elevation, So those all looked pretty
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: good for him. I just don't know what he was
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: doing against Pittsburgh there. He had a little bit of
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: a backslide there. Does that mean he's falling into bad
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: form though? I don't really think so. I think it
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: was more of an outlier type of game. Remains to
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: be seen, though, I mean, Baltimore's offense isn't that good,
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: and they also don't have that much experience of only
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: four hitters have seen him before eighteen at bats. I
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: know it's a small sample size, but eight strikeouts, one walk,
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: one sixty seven average allowed four to thirty three ops,
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: so Kershaw has held them down in that limited sample.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Tomoyuki Sagano, who is the older
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: Japanese picture of the Orioles brought over this year. He's
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: had an okay major league debut season four point four
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: to one ERA, one point three to two whip a
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: little bit higher than I would like. Four point one
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: two ERA at home, so he is a little bit
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: better at home. Last time out, he got smacked by
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, which is not a good sign. At San Francisco,
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're not a really good offense. It's a
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: pitcher friendly ballpark. So he's given up four more runs
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: in each of the last two outings now, which is
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: not a great sign. All those command numbers remain fairly good.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: Twenty four to seven strike a walk ratio in August,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: so maybe I guess you could argue I got a little.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: Bit unlucky, but I don't know. He gave up a
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: lot of.
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: Hits in that game though, Man, he was giving up
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: way too many hits, too much contact. I had a
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: four point five to five VRA with that span, So
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: he's pretty mediocre.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: Dodgers have never seen him before.
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: So maybe that's a little bit of an edge to
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: Sugano because again he'll be unfamiliar to them and they
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: have to kind of figure him out on the fly.
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: But the Dodgers, of course there offense is good. They
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: have the ability to potentially hit him. So I prefer
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: Kershaw out of the two starters in this one, which
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: seems a bit obvious. I mean, you know you're gonna
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: pay a tax though with the Dodgers. With Kershaw on
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: the mound, they're up for minus one fifty five to
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty seven here in eighty six percent tickets,
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: ninety seven percent in the cash. But it looks like
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: the public and the professionals are all siding with the
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: Dodgers here.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: I'm not really gonna disagree with it.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: I mean I would probably still lean that way, but
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: you have to lay a price with it. I mean,
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: that money line seems a little bit too high, or
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: you'd have to lay run line with it. Still don't
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: really love that idea, but that's what we have going
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: on in that game. That would probably be the still
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: the preferred way to play that game for me, at
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: least Milwaukee at Pittsburgh. This is an interesting pitching matchup somewhat.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh about to get swept by the Brewers here, So
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: the Brewers, will they overlook Pittsburgh after they've dominated the
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: series basically, well, not dominated really, but they won the
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: first two games with some of my of eas Pittsburgh
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: has only scored three runs in the series, the back
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: to their bad offense. We know Milwaukee has the better
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: offense here. Milwaukee actually has the better bullpen. Milwaukee, they're
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: trying to make sure that they hold on to their
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: divisions so they have something to play for Pittsburgh. I mean,
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: they'll show up because it's Milwaukee coming into their place
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: and Pittsburgh's trying to avoid a sweep, so there will
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: still be motivation on both sides. Will Milwaukee overlooked them now?
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: They've won the series already and they have Texas up next,
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: which is a bit of a bigger opponent they have
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: to face there. Maybe it's possible they overlooked them in
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: this spot. Milwaukee has Misierowski pitching today though, and he's
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: he's been difficult to handicap this year, and so we'll
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: see what. I gotta look at the bullpen usage real quick.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee US three relief pitchers yesterday Pittsburgh used two, so Milwaukee,
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: I mean Milwaukee does love the bullpen as they're a
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: little bit of the better bullpen.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Miszierowski for the Brewers here in his rookie season.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's a really talented young pitcher, throws really hard.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: He's been a mixed bag this year though, four point
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: five one point one five whips.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: The whip is still good. He walks somewhat too many
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: guys right now though.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: Man he doesn't allow a lot of hits though, but
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: he has a seven point two to three roadie ray,
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: so he hasn't been good on the road. Pittsburgh has
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: seen him before, so that unfamiliarity edgit he had the
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: first time he faced them is not really there anymore.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: I believe Missierowski outdueled Schemes in that game.
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: He went five scoreless innings against Pittsburgh in Milwaukee and
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: had eight strikeouts.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: High strike out right of course for him. But he
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: hasn't been that good recently.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: He's only gone five innings once in his last four appearances.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: I last actually several appearance. It's basically since the All
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: Star break. I had to face a difficult lineup or
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: a couple of difficult lineups in a row. Actually, Cobbs Arizona, Philly,
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: I gave up three hundred runs a piece in all
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: those games, didn't really go deep into any of them.
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: Still had decent strikeout numbers there. His walk numbers did
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: go down his last couple outings. But he's not going
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: too deep into these games. But he is stepping down
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: in class to face Pitts and maybe Pittsburgh being familiar
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: with him now after hitting against him once, still won't
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: even help them. They have thirteen at bats against him,
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: only two hits as far as Pittsburgh's current lineup, no
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: extra RaSE hits, six strikeouts, one walk, a one fifty
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: four average, and three sixty eight ohps. So I guess
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: this he's still gonna come out. He's still gonna come
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: out and pitch well in this one. That would be
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: my guest. I think he'll probably get you about five
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: innings in this one and probably throw too many pitches,
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: but probably hold Pittsburgh's offense down. Pittsburgh is Bubba Chandler
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: listed as their starter.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: He's a young guy.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: Uh, he's pitched a little bit this year. I think
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: this is his first season in the majors. Two point
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: two five ERA, zero point eight three WHIP. Those are
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: good numbers. He's made three appearances so far. Pittsburgh has
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: actually won every game that he's appeared, and he didn't
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: give up any runs in his first two outies. Then
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: he gave up three last time out against the Dodgers, which,
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: which is who they're I was gonna say, is that
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: who they're playing year? Now? That was the previous year,
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: is what I'm saying. No, they're playing Milwaukee here, another
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: good team, so Milwaukee would be unfamiliar.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: With him at least.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: But he gave up some runs against the Dodgers. Still,
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: his numbers look pretty good though. He's got a nine
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: strikeouts one walk, so his command numbers are pretty good.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: Chandler might be decent, although he's got four innings exactly
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: in all of his outings, So I guess you're looking
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: at him probably giving you four outings four innings again here,
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: it's probably the plan.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: Yes, he has the unfamiliarity edge because Milwaukee hasn't seen
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: it before. I mean, it's kind of an interesting it's
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: an interesting matchup here. Man.
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: I think the way to look at this game is
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: probably first five innings under maybe the total went down
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: from eight to seven and a half, eighty one percent
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: of tickets nine to seven percent of the cash on
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: the over.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: I'm not really sure I buy that. I mean, I
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: think this game is.
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: Gonna be a lower scoring game early in the game
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: with these two pitchers here, that would be my guess.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: You have to probably go under three and a half though,
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: So it's a bit of a dicey total to go
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: under there. I wouldn't really want to deal with the
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: bullpens with that. Milwaukee's also a public road favorite up
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: down for minus one forty eight one forty six, eighty
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: percent tickets, ninety six percent of the cash on them.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, I have.
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: Some concerns obviously about laying a price like that on Milwaukee.
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know you're getting charged attacks there to
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: play a team like Milwaukee in a game like this
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh. So and it doesn't even look like that
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: high of a price. So it seems a little bit
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: questionable to go with that route there. So again, we'll
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: see what happens though. Next up, we got Toronto and
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. I'm rooting for Toronto here man as a
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: non Yankee fan. The Red Sox basically are gonna be
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: out of it and Red Sox have way too many injuries.
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are completely falling apart right now. Fucking sucks.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: This is the rubber match in this series, so Toronto
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: will maintain their lead in the division regardless of what
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: happens in this game. It's a big game for both teams.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: They're fighting for playoff positioning here. Yankees won yesterday after
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: losing the first game. Yankees won three to one yes today.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: I did give them out in the first five yesterday,
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: which was also a winner.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: Yankees used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: The bullpen usage has been a lot heavier recently than
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: the Toronto's, so Toronto has the more rested at bullpen here,
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: which is also why I didn't want to include the
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: bullpens and yesterday's play the bullpen advantage probably shifts back
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: to Toronto here. Neither bullpen is that good. Toronto's has
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: been pretty bad recently, but being rested here, I think
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: they do have a little bit of a bullpen edge.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: The Yankies have the better hitting, although both teams can
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: definitely hit, and then we have a decent starting pitching
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: matchup here the max is this is this game is
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: cranked to the max I guess Max Scherzer against Max
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: freed Schurzer for the Blue Jays, having a pretty good
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: season at his old age. Four point one one ERA
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: one point one to three whip is pretty solid. He's
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: actually better on the road three point six ERA on
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: the road. Last couple outingies weren't as good to give
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: a four and runs a piece in each of them,
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: but he still did have six strikeouts in only one walk,
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: so even though his strikeout rate went a bit down
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: in that last suning, he had one really bad out
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: and really against Milwaukee last time out, but he was
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: pitching well prior to that, still to three point three
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: four ERA in August twenty three to eight strike a
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: walk ratio.
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: He's faced the Yankees twice this year, both.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: At home, though, and he gave up tour in runs
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: in five innings and one of them in four and
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: runs and five innings in the other and did have
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: eleven strikeouts in one walk over that span, so his
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: command numbers are pretty good.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: So he did okay against.
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: The Yankees this season, and his career numbers against the
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: Yankees are also fairly good one hundred and ninety five
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: at bats. He has a really good eighty two to
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: ten strike a walk ratio two point fifteen average, six
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: eighty four ops.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: Certainly, it's possible.
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: The Yankees can hit him, but I think sures are.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, he definitely does have the ability to come
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: out and at least limit the damage here. Max Freed,
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Yankees, is the younger of the two pitchers.
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: He's having the better season of the two two point
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: nine eighty ra A one point one one whip. He's
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: in better at Home two point three four ERA, so
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: both pitchers are in their better Horn Road split. And Freed,
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: after he was really bad for like a couple of months,
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty good over his last three starts. He's
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: allowed one runners or zero in his last three starts.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: His walk numbers remain high, though he has an eighteen
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: to eight strike at walk ratio with that span, so
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: that's still not great.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: He's still walking.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: Too many guys, man, so he's kind of getting away
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: with putting guys on base. So I do worry that
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: maybe Freed is wearing down a little bit as the
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: season progresses.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: Year.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: He's kind of approaching the highest innings total that he's had,
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: He's approaching basically what he did last year, and then
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: the only season where he threw more innings, and that
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: was back in twenty twenty two. So maybe a little
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a concern there that he's gonna
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: be wearing down somewhat. His numbers against Toronto are good though,
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: on one hundred and eleven at bats, nineteen to nine,
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio two sixteen average five ninety nine
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: oh ps.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: And I do think overall the Yankees are the better
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: of the two teams.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: Unfortunately, as I said a couple of weeks ago, I said,
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: I thought the Yankees would still win this division, and
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: I recommended taking them at plus because you could do
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: that at the books out there at the time, Yankees
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: are up for minus one forty eight to minus one
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: sixty eight, So pretty significant movement on the Yankees. Eighty
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: percent of ticket is ninety percent of the cash on them.
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I buy the cash percentage there,
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: but seems like the money is coming in on the Yankees. Unfortunately,
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: I think it's too much of a price to really
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: lay with them in this game, though, like I don't know.
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: It seems yeah, like you're always pretty much gonna ge
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: attacked for the Yankees. That's just the way that it is,
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: especially with Freed on the mound. So it does seem
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: like it's too high of a price, especially at this point,
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: So I wouldn't want to deal with that. Seventy three
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: percent of ticke is ninety six percent of cash in
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: the over the total just kind of sitting at eight
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: and a half, I would maybe I would more have
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: a tendency to lean to a first five under in
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: this game, though, because I do think it's gonna be
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: somewhat of a pitching battle between the two maxes there,
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: So that's kind of the way that I lean in
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: that game. White Sox at Detroit. Detroit is trying to
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: maintain their lead in the division, of course that they
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: had they have a lot of padding here, but they
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: also would like to get the one seed and have
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: home advantage will matter or for the Tigers because they
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: are good at home. The teams have split the first
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: two games of this year, is with Detroit getting a
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: shutout yesterday behind School Bowls six to nothing, and Martin
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: Perez did not do that well for the White Sox yesterday.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Detroit does the better offense here.
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: Detroit has the better bullpen here, and they didn't use
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of their bullpen yesterday. They're the better team
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: pretty much all around.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: The White Sox.
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: He was a little bit more of their bullpen yesterday.
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: The starting pitching, though, I don't really love either of
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: these guys the way that it stands right now. Davis
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: Martin for the White Sox four point six ERA.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: One point three whip.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: He's having an okay season, which is his third season
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: of the majors. Actually I actually thought it was his second.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: He is actually a little bit worse on the road though,
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: four point five to seventy arra in the road. Kind
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: of bounce back a little bit. He had a rough
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: outing two starts to go, but it was against the Yankees,
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: so maybe give him a pass for that.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Only lasted three to two thirds.
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: He have three and runs, give it three and runs
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: last time against Minnesota, but he lasted six innings that time.
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: Did walk three guys though, so he's walked three exactly
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: in four of his last five outings. So his walk numbers,
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: that's not good, man. He's walking too many guys right now.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: Up against Detroit fifty seven at bats, has a two
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: eighty one average, allowed seven to twenty six ohps, seven
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: to two strikeout walk ratios all right, but he's allowed
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: too many hits to them man too much contact. The
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: ops is not terribly high, but I don't trust Martin,
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: don't trust the Forum, and he's in he's walking too
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: many guys. Detroit could definitely do some damage against him.
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Charlie Morton, who finally seems to
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: be tailing off at the end of the season. The
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: year after he had a nice run for a while,
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: he had a horrific start to the season. Baltimore put
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: him in their bullpen and then brought him back into
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: the starting rotation, and after they did that, he was
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: way better than Baltimore wound up trading him to Detroit,
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: and he was pitching pretty well for Detroit for a while,
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: but his last couple of outings have been a couple
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: of his worst. So he actually looks like he is
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: now in bad form, whereas I thought he was pitching
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: well for a while and in good form. But now
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: I would say he is not five point five one
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: ra for him one point five to one with that's
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: not good.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: He's got a little bit of a worse home the
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: IRA five point five to three, but.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: That's between both teams that he's been on, Baltimore and Detroit.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: Last two outings, like I said, he went five or
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: fewer innings in both of them.
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: One was at the A's stadium, though, so maybe give
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: him a past or that because the A's, I mean
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: that stadium, the A's can hit well, but that stadium
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: is just very hitter friendly. Still, did have seven strikeouts
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: in that and then his last outing at home, he
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: got bombed by the Mets. Give up six earned runs
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: when he lasted three to two thirds, four walks very concerning,
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: and three strikeouts. So he's walked three or more in
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: three of his last four outings.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: That's not a good sign.
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: The Mets are good hitting teams, so maybe you could
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: argue those last two games are an outlier and he's
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: stepping way down in class to face the White Sox.
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: But the White Sox have actually hit him well in
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: the past in sixty eight of bats fifteen to two
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio. Isn't that good for the White
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: Sox hitting, I mean that is good for Morton, but
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: he's alloted of two ninety four adding average and eight
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: twenty four. Ohps them, that's not good for Moreton. I
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: think the over is the way to look in this game,
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: although the money is disagreeing with me. With eighty six
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets on the over and sixty percent
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over, I don't really see
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: why the public is coming in and playing it over
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: in a game where the White Sox are involved. But
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: I just think the pitching is pretty bad and at
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: least one of the bullpens is not good. So totally
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: sitting at a pretty reasonable eight and a half here,
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: So I mean that's probably the way would leaning in
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: that game.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: Andrew, what's up man? I thanks for hanging out.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: Mets and Reds are gonna be one of my plays,
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: so I'll hold off on that for now. Philadelphia at Miami,
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: I don't think Miami has Have they announced the starter yet?
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Where are we at here? No?
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: They have nots This game is pretty difficult to handicap man.
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: Miami has lost five games in a row now, though
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: you gotta think they're gonna still step up to play Pitts.
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: Excuse Philadelphia because Philadelphia is the top team in their
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: division right now, Philadelphia's coming to their place. You know,
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: this is the series where we had the Philadelphia Karen
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: getting involved. But that is one problem for Miami in
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: this series that people don't come out to Miami Stadium. Man,
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: So like at least half of the fans that are
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: in the stadium for these games are Philly fans.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: It's just a.
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: Sad state for Miami. So they have almost no home advantage.
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: So that's kind of a problem. Philly is on the
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: version of sweep though, So it is possible that Philly
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: overlooks Miami in this last game after they already took
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: care of business in the series. They have a decent
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: lead in their division. And who is that lead over
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: and who do they play next? Oh yeah the Mets.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: So Philly does return home and play the Mets starting tomorrow,
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: so they might be looking ahead a little bit to
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: that series. Man, So I do worry about the spot
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: that Philly is in here. Philly does not have a
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: very good bullpen either, so I actually think they have
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: maybe the slightly lesser of the two bullpens here. According
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: to the er, they're actually slightly better now, so that's interesting.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: But both bullpens are not that great. Philly used three
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: of their relievers yesterday, Miami only used two, so the
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: bullpen situation is not really a huge advantage to one
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: team or the other. Philly obviously has a big offensive edge.
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: They have the better offense. But do we trust Taiwan
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: Walker for Philly? I don't three point nine two ERA
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: one point three to six whip he'll be starting for them.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: He's been better on the road though, three point six
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: to three road ERA, so he's held the run totals
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: down for opponents.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: But he's not pitching well man.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: His last two outings he went nine innings and he
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: gave up nine or and runs seventeen hits against the
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: Mets and Milwaukee, both on the road. Those are good offenses,
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: but he's not pitching well man. He doesn't strike out
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys. He does walk too many guys
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: as a walker, five strikeouts, three walks over of those
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: two outings. He was limiting the damage for a while though.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: Had a decent August with a three point one to
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: four R seventeen to seven strikeout walk ratio, which that's
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: not very good. The walk's too high, strikeout rate not
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: very high, but I mean, he's not in good form
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: right now. In my opinion, he does have good numbers
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: against Miami, though in nineteen at bats, they'll have two
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: hits off of them off of him, although one of
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: them is a home run from Otto Lopez. I think
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: only have one strikeout, no walks against him, a one
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: oh five average and three sixty eight ops.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: So he has held Miami down.
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: But this is a situation where I would be pretty
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: tempted to just five, like take a flyer on Miami
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: as a money line underdog here man. A Walker certainly
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: one of the least impressive pictures in Philly's rotation. Miami
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: totally undecided though, So that's the thing, Like, you're gambling, man,
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: You were definitely gambling if you want to take Miami here,
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: although I somewhat lean that way just giving the situation.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: I think it's a look ahead for Philly. Their picture,
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: we know, is not that good. So it's just like,
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: is what Miami gonna put out there? Is that gonna
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: be better than Taiwan Walker? That's kind of the question
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: here man. But you're getting Miami as a home underdog price,
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: you know Philly is gonna be overpriced in the market,
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: so that's probably the way I would lean, But we
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: still don't even know what Miami's gonna do Minnesota at
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: Kansas City. Kansas City still has a little bit to
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: play for here. They're fighting to potentially trying to get
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: a wildcard here. They're a bit far back in their
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: division to maybe think about that, but they're playing decently
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: right now.
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: They've won three games in a row.
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: They're on the versi of potentially sweep over Minnesota. So
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: Minnesota their motivation is basically to avoid the sweep here.
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: Kansas City does have Cleveland next. Is that gonna be
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: a look ahead type of spot? I don't really think so,
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: and Cleveland probably out of it. I do think Kansas
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: City needs to continue to be motivated and win games here.
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: Kansas City has the better of these two bullpens. I
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: think only use two relievers yesterday as well. Minnesota also
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: only used two and use one of their long relief men.
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: But Kansas City does get the bullpen edge here. Zach,
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: what's up man Royals fan that we have in our chat.
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out man. Kansas City has the worst
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: of the two offenses. I would say, though, I think
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: Kansas City has a starting pitching edge, though I do
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: think they have the pitching edge here. Bailey Ober is
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: pitching for Minnesota. It's been a pretty difficult.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: Season for him.
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: Five point two to three ERA, one point three to
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: five whip not very good.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty bad on the road six point h
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: two road ERA.
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: He's kind of falling back into his bad way as
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: the last two times out. He came back from injury
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: and he pitched pretty well for a bit for most
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: of August, but last two starts, including one in September,
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: he's falling apart a little bit, giving up four and
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: runs in five innings in each of them. Sixteen hits
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: allowed across that span. He's just way too hitable and
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: he's a lot four home runs over that span, so
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: that's not good. Uh, and a six to two strike
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: a walk ratios. Already, he usually has pretty good command numbers,
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: he doesn't walk that many guys, but he gives up
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: way too many hits.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: He just leaves the ball over the plate way too much,
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: so that is the problem with over. His numbers against
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: Kansas City are not terrific, even though they're not a
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: good offense. One hundred and thirty nine at bats, twenty
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: one to six strike at walk ratios.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Alright, but two.
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: Eighty one batting average, eight hundred oh ps allowed. That's
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: not very good. Michael Lorenzen will be pitching for the Royals.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: He's obviously not the greatest. He's been up and down
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: this year. I mean figuratively and literally, I guess, because
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: I think they've sent They probably sent him to the
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: Miners at some point this year too. Four point five
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: to four ERA for him, one point three to three whip.
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: He's better at home though, so if you like the
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: Royals here, you do get the better of both starting
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: pitchers home road splits three point six ERA at home.
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: It's a pitcher friend the ballpark as well. He's been
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: better than Ober recently, at the very least. I mean,
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: Lorenzen was out for about a month and then he
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: came back and the Royals actually won three straight starts
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: of his. He didn't pick up a win in any
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: of them though. He actually failed to go five innings
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: in the first two, but he did go five innings
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: against the White Sox allowed four and runs, which isn't
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: that great, but he had a six to one strike
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio, so his command was on at least
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: in that game, and then his last outing was the
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: best one since coming back.
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: Went six innings. You have a two earned runs.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: Five strikeouts, one walk, four hits allowed to Anaheim in
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: this stadium, so that's a good sign. Maybe Lorenzo's trending
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: in the right direction since coming back injury. He does
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: have a twenty to five strike a walk ratio as well,
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: which is not too bad. Against Minnesota, his numbers are
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: decent twenty two at bats. They don't have a lot
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: of experience against them, only five of their hero does
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: have faced him before. They'll have two extra rased hits
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: doubles from Julian and Wallner, four strikeouts, no walks, two
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: seventy three average six thirty six ops. So I do
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: lean to Kansas City in this game. I think they
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: have the pitching edge across the board in this one.
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: The money seems to basically agree with that. They're down
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: for minus one twenty eight to minus one twenty five,
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: but seventy six percent tickets eighty one percent of the
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: cash on Kansas City, So yeah, it looks like the
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: money is more so coming in on Kansas City. Here,
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: So that's what we got going on in that one.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: I'm actually gonna wind up only having one play by
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: the way in baseball, so I know that's maybe disappointing,
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: but I don't really love the baseball card here. I
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: think if I was gonna go with another game, I
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: tempted to actually throw out the over in Seattle Atlanta.
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: It's just that total going over ten is just kind
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: of ridiculous, especially when it's not Corsfield or Tampa Stadium
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: or the A's Stadium.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, man, but if I was gonna
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: give out a second best.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: Play would be, it would probably be that at this point,
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: because I was looking at Houston, I was potentially gonna
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: give oout Houston as a play. But I'll explain that
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: when I go talk about this game, because I don't
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: really want to do that anymore.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: San Francisco had Saint Louis.
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis these teams to split the first two of
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: the series, but I think this could be a bad
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: spot for San Francisco, even though San Francisco debatably has
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: more to play for it because they're technically still in
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: the hunt for their division for maybe a wildcard spot,
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: although it's kind of a long shot, but San Francisco
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: was really hot, they'd want a bunch of recent games.
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: They'd win five more games in a row until they
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: lost yesterday. And I always talk about how when a
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: team has a long win streak and they lose a game,
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: it has a tendency to kind of hang them over
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: into the next game. So I do kind of lean
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: to Saint Louis as the situation is concerned here, but
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: I think Saint Louis has the better of the pitching
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: matchup to him. Actually, maybe tempted to thin give about
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis here, but I do have some concerns about
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis here too. San Francisco does have the better bullpen,
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: although I think it's slight. I think Saint Louis's bullpen
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: is not that bad either. Both bullpens are pretty well
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: rested here, so we got decent bullpens. Saint Louis's offense
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: has been so bad to see all Star Break that
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: I think they actually have the worst of the two
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: offenses at this point. San Francisco's offense has actually been
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: a little bit better recently, so Saint Louis does actually
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: have a little bit of an offensive disadvantage here, But
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: I don't think there's any way you can put your
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: money on San Francisco with Kaiwai Tang pitching. I mean,
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: he's young ish, but he hasn't been very good. Seven
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: point two to three ERA, one point seven to one
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: whip that's bad. He's actually been slightly better on the
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: road with a six point seven to five ERA, which
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: is still awful. Did have a pretty good start last
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: time about at Course Field. How is that for you?
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: Best start of the season is at course Field. That
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: was his only start where he went beyond five innings,
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: give up two earned runs, eight strikeouts, one walk. He
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: actually did have one five inning shutout starting against Washington,
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: and so maybe that was his best start. But it's
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: just kind of ridiculous that he pitched that well at
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: coursefielder they give up nine hits and kind of got
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: away with it. I'm still not ready to say that
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: Tang is any good here man, although he's unfamiliar to
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: the Cardinals at least, so he might have a little
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: bit of an edge in that regard where they're unfamiliar
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: with him. I don't see Tang lasting more than about
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: five innings in this game at most, though, so you're
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: gonna get a lot of San Francisco's bullpenal though their
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: bullpen is good, so maybe that's not a horrible thing
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: for San Francisco. Sonny Gray is definitely the way more
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: proven of the two pitchers he's pitching for the Cardinals.
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: He seems to be wearing down though towards the end
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: of the season. He always has really good command numbers.
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: When his fastball, I think gets a little bit lower velocity,
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: his stuff becomes way too hittable, So his ERA is
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: definitely too high now.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: Four point four to three ERA.
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: One point two to three win isn't exactly that terrific either.
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: He hasn't better at home though, three point nine eighty
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: r at home his last out, and he got smashed
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: for seven runs against the A's though seven runs, eleven hits,
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: three walks terrible, but so many men on base in
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: that game. Man, in six innings, five strikeouts. He's not
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: on right now. Man, He's had three walks in each
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: of his last two outings. He had a couple of
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: decent starts though, really despite the three walks against Pittsburgh,
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: that start was pretty good. The one against Tampa was
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: pretty good in those prior to but I don't think
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: he's in terrific form right now. He did have kind
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: of a bounce back August where most of his starts
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: were good in August with a three point four to
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: eighty ra thirty five to eight strike a walk ratio,
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: So maybe he will have a little bit bit of
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: a bounce back here against a weaker offense in San Francisco.
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: But San Francisco they've been able to hit him for
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: power man seventy three at bats, he sell him to
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: a pretty low two forty seven batting average, but they
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: have a really high nine to eight oh ps. Given
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: that's high, given that that average is so low, that's
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: because they have six home runs off from six different hitters.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: Some more than half of their hitters that have faced
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: have homered off and before him, And he has a
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: twenty one to thirteen strike a walk ratio against him,
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: so he's walked way too many of them as well.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: So great doesn't exactly do that great against Saint Louis.
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: I have a slight lean to Saint Louis in this game,
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: but I would really temper my expectations there they're down
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: for mist one fifteen minus one, forty two to fifty
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: six percent tickets, seventy percent of the cash coming in
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: on Saint Louis. So the money seems to be coming
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: in on Saint Louis and kind of agreeing with me.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: But I kind of worry about.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: It, man.
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: I I wouldn't really hate an over, to be honest,
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: even though the money's coming in the under. I don't
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: know why all these totals seem to be disagreeing with me,
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: although the one that I think is the best in
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: the Seattle Atlanta game, the market is not really disagreeing
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: with me on that one. Seventy eight percent of tickets
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: on the over in this one Giants and Cardinals, eighty
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: six percent of the tick of the cash it's using
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: on the under. Though total did go up a little
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: bit from seven and a half to eight, but it
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: looks like the money is coming in in the under again.
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: I worry about the starting pitching here, though, man.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: But I do think Gray has the upper hand there.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: So that's the way that I lean Washington at the Cubs.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: Cubs are trying to play for playoff positioning, man, so
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: they have something to play for the teams has split
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: the first two games of this series. The Cubs lost
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: two to one yesterday. Cubs have the better offense here,
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: Cubs have the better bullpen here. So not a whole
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: lot going on for Washington this game other than the
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: fact that maybe they'll be motivated just to try to
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: beat the Cubs. They've played decently in the series though,
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: I mean they won the first game and then had
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: a close game yesterday. A bullpen usage is a lighter
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: on the Cubs side as well, So the Cubs have
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: the lighter bullpen use this year.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: But that's gonna mean something.
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's they need that to be the case,
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: because they're going with a bullpen game here.
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: The Cubs are.
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: Washington has Andrew Alvarez pitching, and we don't really know
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: what this guy is yet.
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: He's made one.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: Start in his major league career, even though he's not
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: that young. He's twenty six, so kind of a delayed
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: start to his major league career.
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know exactly how good he is.
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: He had a good start his first time out five
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: innings against Miami.
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: Uh he had he only allowed one hit, two walks
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: for strikeout.
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: Solid start from him, So of course he's gonna be
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar to the Cubs too. So does that mean he's
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: gonna come out to pitch well against the Cubs?
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: He might.
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, he at least has that unfamiliarity edge there,
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: and he looked solid in his first start. At least
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: he's going up against Drew Pomerans for the Cubs.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: So the Cubs they're going with a bullpen game here
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: man Pomerans.
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, he hasn't made starts before, but he is
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: definitely towards the back end of his career here.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: He's had a really good season.
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: The Pomerans was the one who had a run of
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: like a ton of US like straight appearances where he
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: hadn't allowed to run or something out of the bullpen
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: for the Cubs, and that ended.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: At some point.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: But his numbers this year a good two point four
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: ERA one point one one whip. He's worse at home though,
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: significantly three point sixty three e RA. So very odd
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: that his numbers were so good on the road, but
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: he's mostly been working out of the bullpen. He actually
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: pitched yesterday out of the bullpen. So he's gonna be
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: an opener, I mean, because he pitched yesterday.
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: You can see what's been going on here.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: He's actually pitched three times since September second. So he's
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: only gonna go one inning in this game, man, So
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be an opener, and then the Cubs are
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: gonna go with their bullpen behind him. So it's a
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: bullpen game for the Cubs here, So I don't know
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: if that's necessarily a good thing, although their bullpen is rested.
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: I would slightly lean to Washington in this game in
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: the first five innings because I don't really want to
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: deal with Washington's bullpen, even though I know the Cubs
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: bullpen will be in this game throughout the entire thing,
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: but I don't want Washington when their bullpen gets into
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: the game. So eighty three percent tickets, eighty four percent
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the Cubs. They're down for one
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: nine to win eighty six, so the money kind of
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: coming in against the Cubs there. I would probably take
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: the shot with Washington run line as the underdog plus
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: the half run or whatever in the first five innings
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: would probably be the way to look at this game.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: In my opinion.
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: The total is low down for May and A have
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: to all the way to seven and a half. Juice
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: to the under, and you know that probably means wind
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: is blowing in at Wrigley and it's probably a.
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: Pretty cool day out there today too. So cool, man.
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: We have so much afternoon baseball, man, everything is afternoon.
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: There's no Sunday Night baseball because football. I thought that
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: they still did Sunday Night baseball with football back though,
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: because Sunday Night Baseball is ESPN and NFL. Maybe it's
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: just because it's the first NFL weekend. Maybe the NFL
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: just takes over everything because Sunday Night NFL is on NBC.
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. So I don't know. In Peacock now
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: probably so, I don't know.
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: But all the games are in the afternoon here, man, Houston, Texas.
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: I was gonna give out a play on Houston because
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: I thought this was gonna be the starting pitching matchup
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: with Luis Garcia for Houston. I actually liked the matchup
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: with Garcia on them out for Houston. It's not gonna
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: be him, though, it's apparently gonna be from or Valdev
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: So I think it's pitching on short rest here after
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: being a head case in his last outing so I
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: don't love that for Houston, man, so I'm gonna stay
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: away from this game the series. I've done one to
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: one betting this series. We got Texas's the underdog, and
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: the Texas's bullpen almost blew it both games for us. Man,
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: they blew it for us last night with the under
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: Texas bullpen. I don't know how they've been this bad
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: in the series, and they almost blew it for us
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: in the first game, So.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: I worry about that.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: Houston's bullpen actually has the better ERA on the season
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: now than Texas is, so that's crazy.
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: They're both pretty good. I'm looking at the hitting right now.
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: Of course, Houston has the better hitting, although They're hitting
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: hasn't been that good recently, but Texas really weak offensively.
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: The bullpens are both good. They're both in the top ten.
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: You can see here Houston actually leap frog Texas basically
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: just because Texas has been.
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: So bad in the series.
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: Bullpen wise, Houston's got the more rested bullpend here, although
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: they're still dealing with some injuries in their bullpen, so
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: that is a bit of a concern. Either closes or
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: a bray or did not pitch yesterday. So they have
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: him available today. He's their temporary closer. I guess it's
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: all hater comes back. Texas has used a lot of
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: their relief men over the last couple of days. Man,
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: so their bullpen is actually in worse shape than Houston.
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: So I was looking at this and thinking, oh, well,
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: that means I want Houston because I liked how Luis
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: Garcia matched up here. But it's gonna be fromer Valdez now,
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: which I don't know why the fuck they're doing that.
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: Valdez.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: I mean he was slated to pitch tomorrow, I think,
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: and we know after he give up that Grand Slam.
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: In his last outing, he intentionally crossed up his own catcher.
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: His catcher called for a curveball, he agreed to throw
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: the curveball, I think, low and away, and then he
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: threw a fastball on the inside part of the plate,
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: like right at his catcher's elbow and tie tied up.
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: The ketcher crossed up.
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: The catcher could have wound up being a wild pitch,
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: although the catcher was able to knock it down, so
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: nothing happened. I don't think there was anybody on base
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: at the time either, because he's just giving up a
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: Grand Slam, so it wouldn't have mattered.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think Valdez did did that intentionally. He's
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: a worry man.
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: He's he is definitely a concern as far as his
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: head space. It's not good right now, so that is
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: definitely a concern for Valdez. He's had a decent season overall,
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: three point four ERA, one point two whip. I mean,
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: he's definitely a talented pitcher. He's also a bit of
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: a fat ass at five eleven, two thirty. He's big,
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: and he's got to cut his hair. His hair looks
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: fucking stupid.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: Man. If you've seen a.
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: Pitch live, he's got the long dreadlock ponytail. It looks really,
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: really stupid. He's been worse on the road four point
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: seven to four r on the road. Give up six
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: runs in that outing last time out against the Yankees,
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: but again most of it was on that Grand Slam.
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: He did still have eight strikeouts in one walk, so
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: that start wasn't really as bad as it looked. So
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: he does seem to actually kind of be back in
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: form over his last two starts. He shut out Colorado
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: over seven innings to start before that, so even though
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: he had a bad August seventeen to twelve strike a
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: walk ratio five point.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: Six four ERA.
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: I actually think he's back in form a little bit here,
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: So there is that, and he's done decently against Texas.
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: I at home against Texas earlier this year he gave
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: up noher and runs and six innings with ten strikeouts,
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: no walks against them four hits. And then the other
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: time in this stadium he went seven innings, had eight strikeouts,
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: one walk, and allowed three earned runs on six hits
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: to Texas. So he's been good against Texas, although it
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: is worrisome that he's way worse on the road four
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: point seven to four ERA in the road.
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: That's not good.
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: But this is a pitcher friendly park, and like I said,
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: he's been good against Texas. So if you do like Houston,
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: I think you do it. I would still say you
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: probably do have to agree that Houston does have the
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: better starting pitcher in this outing. Though, between Valdez and Corbin,
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know me, I'm not a Corbin fan
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: by any means. Valdez against Texas and one hundred and
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: forty one at bats, he's pretty much dominated them. Forty
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: nine strikeouts, eleven walks, one seventy average five oh seven ops,
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: so he's held them way down. So he does have
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: good numbers against Texas. Patrick Korbman seems to be becoming
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: the Corbin of.
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: Old again here.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: He was better to start the season, man, but he's
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: been kind of trailing off a bit, tailing off, whatever
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: the phrase is.
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: He's not doing well anymore. Man.
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: He's got a four point four to eighty r now
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: in the season, one point three.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: To five whip.
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: None of that is good, although he's been better at
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: home three point two era at home in this pitcher
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: friendly park here, But over the last four starts he's
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: given up four more and runs than three of the four.
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: That's not good. Although some of them were on the
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: road against Toronto and Arizona. But so you can forgive
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: him for that because those are good offenses. But also
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: on the road at Kansas City he didn't do well,
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: but again those were all roads starts.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Although his U he had a couple of bad home
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: starts to start August two against the Yankees in Philly.
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: I know those are good offenses. Houston's offense is capable
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: at least though, and Cordman against Houston. His numbers are
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: not that good and eighty two at bats nineteen to
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: ten strike a walk RACEIO. That's certainly not good. Too
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: many walks to eighty batting average seven thirty seven oh ps.
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: So he does have the worst matchup numbers there. Houston
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: jumped from minus one of seven of minus one twenty nine.
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: I think that was with the pitching change though, So
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: that's another reason why I liked Garcia there. He has
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: good numbers against Texas, he's under the radar, and you
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: were gonna get a cheaper price on Houston with Garcia
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: on the mount. So I was gonna give out Houston
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: as a play. But now I don't think I can
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: because now with Valdez being announced as the start or
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: the money line moved to minus won twenty nine. I
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: don't think that was actual professional.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: Money moving that line.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: I think the oddsmakers had to move that line because
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: Valdez gets some more respect from the market, So I
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: think that's why the line moved. And as you can
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: see here, sixty three percent of tickets on Houston, but
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: only fifty five percent of the cash, So the money
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: seems to be coming in on the Texas side. So yeah,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, it looks like Houston's just a public road
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: favor that you don't really want to deal with. So
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: that's a game I'm not gonna want to get involved in. Man,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna sit on the sidelines for that one as well.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: San Diego at Colorado this game, oh my god.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: These seems to split the first two games of this series.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: San Diego did finally end their lost streak, so that
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: could be good momentum moving forward. Man, they lost five
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: games in a row. They finally won yesterday. And when
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: a team is mired in a lost streak like that
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: and then they get it going and they break that
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: lost streak a lot of times, that will carry over
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: into the next game and we'll have some positive momentum
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: going into.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: The next game. So that's a positive for San Diego.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: They have something to play because they're still playing for
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: the division.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: They're playing for at least a wildcard spot here, so
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: they do want to win Houston. By the way, in Texas,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: they're both still in the running for their division as well,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: so they're both gonna be motivated in that game as well.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: San Diego, of course, again, they're gonna be motivated here Colorado.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: Their motivation, if there is motivation, will be that San
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: Diego is a good team and they're in their place.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: So it's a divisional matchup. Colorado should come out motivated,
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: and we know San Diego has the way better of
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: the two bullpens. They haven't used that much of their
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: bullpen over the last couple of days. Colorado more bullpen
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: usage from them. So Colorado's bullpen is already the worst
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: of the two bullpens, but the usage is also not
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: in their favor.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: Starting pitching, Dylan Cease for San Diego.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: He's not having a great season man four point eight
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: one ERA, one point three to four whip. He's been
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: very inefficient with his pitch and he pitches excuse me,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: he doesn't go deep into games. He's been bad on
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: the road five point eight one ERA, which doesn't bode
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: well when he's gonna have to pitch a corps field here.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: Even I know Colorado's offense is not good. They're bad enough,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: even though they're a little bit better at home. They're
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: bad enough that San Diego probably does have the better offense,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: even though San Diego's has not been very good this year. Cease,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: I mean again, he's not that good man. He's gone
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: fewer than five innings in three of his last four outings.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: He's allowed four and runs in two of those outings.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's not a good sign to strike out
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: walk ratio has not been good. Did strike out seven
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: last time out against Baltimore in four innings. That's fine,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: but he only lasted four innings again, threw way too
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: many pitches, give him only two runs in that outing.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: But I'm not ready to say he's back and form.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: After that, he had a four point nine to four
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: e RA in August, thirty to fourteen strike out walk ratio.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: These are bad numbers, man. And then against Colorado, his
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: numbers are good against Colorado though, in forty eight bats
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: twenty one to five strike out walk ratio, one seventy
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: five average, allowed five to seventeen ops. So he does
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: do well against Colorado. But I think he's probably only
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: gonna be in the game for maybe five innings in
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: this one. Man.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: I don't how well he's gonna.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: Do in course field given the form that he's in
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: right now, So I do worry about him. Tanner Gordon
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: bitching for Colorado. Not good numbers on the season six
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: point zero seven e R one point five to eight whip.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: But he's actually better at course field, so he actually
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: has the advantage of the home roads. But his home
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: ra is actually better than Ceesars Roady R four point
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: five R and home Go figure. He bitches better at
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: home and Gordon is actually the pitcher in the better
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: form of the two. And most of these recent starts
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: have been at home for him, and he's still been better.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in his last
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: four outings. He went six innings in the last three
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: and those were against the Dodgers. Those four starts are
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: against Arizona, the Dodgers, Houston, and the Cobbs. And he
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: had just gotten bombed by Arizona the start before that start,
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: so he faced all good lineups there and he did
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: well against all of them, so he's actually stepping down
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: in class to face this particular lineup. He also had
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: a nineteen to five strike at walk ratio with that
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: span two, so shockingly, Gordon is actually in better form
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: than cease go figure man.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: His numbers against San Diego are pretty good.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: In fourteen at bats, they only have two hits. They
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: do have a home run for Iglesias, but four to
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: one string a walk ratio one forty three average five
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: point fifty seven ops. So Gordon has been pretty good
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: against San Diego. So crazy to think about, but I
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: actually lean to Colorado first five innings run line here,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: and you could probably get them plus a runner, maybe
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: even a run and a half, given that San Diego
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: is up from minus two twenty to minus two thirty
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: on the money line here eighty nine percent to take
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: his nine nine percent of the cash coming in on
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: San Diego. But I actually think Gordon could duel cease Man.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: He can at least hold his team to within one
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: run or so against San Diego. I think, so that's
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: the way I would lean in that game. I would
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: go Colorado first five run line. I know it sounds insane,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: but that's the way that I would lean in that game.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: Somewhat tempting to make that a play, to be honest,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: but I still don't know if I want to really
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: trust Gordon.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: But that's what we have there Anaheim. Andrew's team here.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: Anaheim, they've gotten absolutely blasted in the series by the A's.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: The first game I thought they would lose because they
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: were returning home from a road trip. That's not a
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: good sign, not a good spot. Excuse me.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: I usually get a little bit distracted, But after getting
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: blown out ten to four, I thought they would do
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: better in the next game.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: It was a bounced back spot.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: A lot of times, when you lose that first game back,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: you do better the next game back, and they did worse.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: They lost seventeen to four yesterday, So it's been an embarrassing,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: embarrassing series for the Angels. Man Kakuchi, I think was
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: terrible in the game yesterday. Yeah, he got absolutely annihilated.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: JT.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: Ginn completely outpitched him. That's crazy, absolutely crazy. Anaheim should
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: be in a bit of an embarrassed mood here though, Man,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: and they're looking to avoid the sweet peer, so I
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: think they will show up with some purpose in this game.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: And both of these teams are out of event, so
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: not a whole lot to play for Hill that the
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: A's have been playing for the better baseball the too recently.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: The A's do have the.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: Better offense, they have a potent offense. Both the bullpens
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: are bad, so I don't even know which bullpen I
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: want to say.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: Is better of the two.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: They're both bad, so it is an over type of series,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: and the over is cashed easily in the first two games,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: which does kind of make sense. The bullpen usage isn't
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: that high on either side, but the bullpens.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: Are bad the A's.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, they might actually still getna win here though, man,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: because they got seven Reno on the mountain. He's actually
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: not been that bad for them recently, because I'm thinking,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: you gotta think anaeim is gonna want to avoid the
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: sweep year. But Anaheim again, they've been playing above their
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: pay grade. Their run differential is very, very bad. It's
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: the worst in the American League. Has just gotten worse
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: in this series. So they're uh, they're even worse than
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: the record looks, as I keep saying. But yeah, seven
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: Reno is pitching for the A's. His season has been
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: a little bit crazy, man, because he's really really bad
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: at home and he's been really good on the road.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: He has a four point six five RA one point
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: three to two whip overall. Not good numbers overall, but
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: two point nine to four on the road is supposed
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: to six point three four in that terrible A's Triple
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: A stadium that they play in Sacramento, so seven Reno
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: way better on the road. He's been way better in
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: his recent outings. He's missed about a month he's been injured.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: He came back and last time out he shut out
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis for five in He's four strikeouts, one walk,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: So it's good outing for him coming back from injury.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: He's a veteran man, he's been around for a while,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: so you kind of had to figure that coming back
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: from injury, he'd be used to that type of thing,
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: he'd do well again, and he did. I know it
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: was against a lineup that's really been bad recently Saint Louis.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: But if you go back to before he was hurt,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: seven Reno had actually allowed three or fewer earned runs
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: in five straight starts prior to that, So in his
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: last six outings that's been the case. He's left two
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: or fewer in all but one of them, which was
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: a road starting against Washington. But still he's actually bitched
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: pretty well, including all those starts except one of them
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: are on the road, but even the home start against
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: Seattle was actually a good one in the mix there,
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: so he is actually in pretty good form. His numbers
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: against Anaheimer. Concerning though, in forty nine at bats, eleven
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: to two strike at walk ratio is good, but three
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: zero six average allowed eight oh three oh ps that
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: is not good. So he has not done that well
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: against Anaheim. So that is a bit of a concern there.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: I gotta worry about that. Anaheim's got Mitch Ferris pitching.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: He's a young pitcher who we don't have a whole
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: lot of uh sample size to look at here with him.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: I didn't even see when he was gonna when he
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: was coming up to the majors or whatever.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: He's made one start in the majors so far.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: It was at Kansas City, so it was a weak
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: lineup that he got to face at a picture friend
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: the ballpark. He went five innings, He gave a one
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: on run, three strikeouts, two walks, picked up a win.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: It was a decent outing for him. I didn't look
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: at a scouting because I, uh wasn't gonna attempt to
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: play this game. But Faris did pretty well in that outing,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: and you know he's gonna be unfamiliar to the A's lineup,
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: so he might actually do fairly well in this outing.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: So I mean it's a slight lean for me towards
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: the under in this game, although we see sixty five
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash of the over ninety percent of
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: the cash of the over, so the market doesn't agree
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: with any of my opinion on the totals.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: Basically, today totals just sitting at nine and a half.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: Again, given that pitching matchup, I think it's too high,
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: but I would go first five innings only. Plus, this
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: series has been such an over series that A's have
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: scored so many runs. Man, it seems like something has
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: to kind of regress back to some sort of mean here.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: Man. It seems like.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: All that's gonna do is jack up the total a
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: little bit too high given how high the totals have been,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: But the bullpends are so bad that I would say
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: you gotta go first five innings under.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: That would be my lean in this game. The A's
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: are down for minus one.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: Twenty one eighteen is a money line road favorite, which
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: is really insane. Fifty six percent tickets on them, but
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: fifty percent of the cash is evenly split, so the
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: money seems like it's backing Mitch Ferris. More so, so
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: some money coming in on Anaheim there and again if
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: you agree with that. With the professional money there does
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: seem like the under does make sense in this game,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: meaning that Ferris uh the more unknown might actually pitch
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: well in this one. So we'll see what happens. But
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: that's my lean first five inning under in that one.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: And then the Red Sox at Arizona, Oh boy, Arizona's
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: won four in a row.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: They're on the verge of sweeping the Red Sox.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: Even though Arizona is out of it for the season
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: and now above five hundred, the Red Sox have too
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: many injuries, the Red Sox not playing well. Arizona will
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: they overlook the Red Sox with San Francisco on the horizon.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: I'm not so sure. Probably not really. Red Sox might
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: show up motivated and try to avoid the sweep. Though
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: they've lost three games in a row. It has not
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: been good for the Red Sox. These injuries are starting
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: to take their toll. The Red Sox are not going anywhere. Man.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: Like I said, it's possible they still don't even make
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. To be honest, this is just a bad situation.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: Red Sox do still have the better bullpen. Arizona's bullpen
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: isn't good, not heavy usage for the Red Sox out
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: of their bullpen. Arizona even lighter usage though, but still
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: Red Sox do have the better bullpen. Arizona is the
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: better offense. Red Sox offense has been sputtering, and now
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: that Roman Anthony not coming back, I mean, this.
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: Is bad, bad stuff for the Red Sox. Here. Brian
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: Beao is pitching for the Red Sox.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: He has been one of their better starters since he
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: started getting his wildness under control, because his wildness was
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: a huge problem, but he was just inducing so many
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: ground balls that he was getting away with it. That's
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: good that he's a ground ball pitcher for a stadium
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: like this, though, because this is a hitter friendly ballpark,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: so maybe he'll adapt decently to this ballpark. He's got
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: a three point oh seven ERA one point two to
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: three whip on the season. Those are good numbers two
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: point eight five yr.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: On the road, so he is better on the road.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: He's given up three or fewer earned runs in his
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: last four outings and in.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: And in eighteen of his last nineteen outings.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's just insane that he's just not allowing
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: that many runs, even though again he wasn't actually pitching
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: as well as that would indicate until more recently, whereas
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: you could see more recently his numbers have been better,
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: like twenty five to six strike up walk ratio in
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: August two point two seventy RRA, so he did pitch
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: well for the most part throughout that month. In the
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: prior month, he is actually pitching better even based on
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: the the other metrics. His walk numbers had gone way down,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: but he did walk three guys last time out in
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: a five inning appearance against Cleveland. Still picked up the
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: win because the Red Sox even to get a lot
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: of run support for him three on runs allowed in
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: that one. Wasn't the greatest star for him, But I'm
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: not ready to say that he's totally out of control
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: or anything like that either. Arizona only is fourteen at
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: bats against him. Six of their hitters have faced him.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: They don't have any extra base HiT's one walk, one strikeout,
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: two eighty six average six nineteen ops, so BAO, I mean,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: he's done fairly well against Arizona. He's going up against
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: Ryan Nelson, who I still think is putting pine Tower
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: in his hat, because again I don't see how his
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: numbers are this good this year given that throughout his
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: career his whip was always like in the one point twos.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: I mean, I know it's a short career, but one
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: point two is one point three as his era was
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: like in the fours, and now this year three point
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: five to seventy array one point zero five whip pitching
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: in eight hit or friendly park in a season where
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: the rest of Arizona starters have basically all been worse
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: than they have been in the past, he got better.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: It doesn't make any sense, but that's been the case again.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: I think there is something going on with him. He
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: does have a two point sixty r at.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: Home, so his numbers are good at home.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good recently as well, giving up three
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: or fewer in runs in his last three outings after
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: he had a little bit of a bad stretch in
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: some road starts. Two of his last three have been
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: at home, but he did have a good road starting
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: against Milwaukee in there too. Does have a what is
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: that a sixteen to three strike a walk razio over
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: the last three starts. He's in good form right now.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the Red Sox are good and twenty
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: three at bats, four strikeouts, no walks, one thirty average
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: allowed in five sixty five ohps. So Nelson does have
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: good numbers there. I mean, I think this is probably
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: a first five inning under. I wouldn't really want to
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: deal with the bullpens in this particular one. Money seems
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: to be agreeing with me on that one go figure
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: fifty three percent of tickets on the over, sixty percent
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the under. Total drop from nine
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: to nine juice to the under. I think first five
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: innings under go. Just with the starting pitching. I think
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: they can both do decent enough to keep this thing
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: under the four and a half or whatever it might
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: be in the first five. So that's the way I
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: would lean there. Arizona flip from plus one to four
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: to minus one. Await, we see the Red Sox as
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: a dreaded public road team. Seventy three per tickets, but
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: eighty four percent of the cash coming in on the
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: Red Sox.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on the Red Sox. So
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: it looks like the.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: Money and the public maybe both on the Red Sox side.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man difficult to figure.
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: But let's go to the.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: Best bet segment here and I'll reiterate my NFL ones
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: real quick and then I'll get out of here.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: One play major League Baseball.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: And we're gonna go with the Cincinnati Reds money line
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: minus one eighteen. And I know the oddsbeagers are telling
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: you the first five innings where Cincinnati has the biggest
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: edge because you have to lay like minus one forty
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: or something on them in the first five. But I'm
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: gonna go with the cheaper price here, man, because Cincinnati.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: There's not that much of.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: A disparity between these two bullpens, so I am still
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: going with that. The Mets have better usage, so yeah,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you want to go first five.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: You can do that.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: But I still think the bullpens can do okay. I
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: think Cincinnati's bullpen can still do okay for us in
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: this game. And if the Mets have to go to
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: their bullpen first, that kind of evens out the situation
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: as well.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go full game with the Reds on
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: this one.
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: This is a big matchup for both teams, man, but
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: the Reds kind of need this game more.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: The teams will split the first two games of the
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: series that the Reds winning yesterday to break a three
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: game loss streak, so I could give them them a
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: bit of momentum maybe coming into this game. The Reds
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: are sitting at exactly five hundred, which is a bit
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: more of a motivator usually because you want to get
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: above five hundred, man, you don't want to drop to
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: below five hundred.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: They're kind of a desperation mode.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: Which I know doesn't mean that the pressure's on, but
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: with this price, you're basically just asking them to win
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: the game, and that is what they're trying to do.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: They're still kind of in the hunt for the wildcard
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: and the Mets are one of the teams that they
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: need to catch, so they got to win this game
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: for that reason. Yes, I know the Mets will want
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: to hold them off. The Mets are still trying to
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: battle for their own division, but the Mets kind of
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: they're almost like locked into a wildcard position at this point, man,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: so the Mets might have a little bit less to
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: really kind of play for here mentally. And then as
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: far as starting pitching, Brandon Sproute is pitching. I look
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: at that stash man Brandon Sprote for the Mets. He's
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: making his major league debut he's got decent stuff. I
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: know he throws a pretty hard fastball upper nineties, and
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: he's got an arsenal of fastball, slider, sweeper, curve change,
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: kind of a typical arsenal. But I guess his other
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: pitches they're not necessarily that good. And I looked at
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: his minor league numbers in Triple A this year, he
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: wasn't very good. He had an e r in the fours.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: He had a whip that was like in the one twos,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: so that's not that impressive. He's not dominating in Triple
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: A by any means, and now he's coming up to
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: the majors, seems like it might be a little bit
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: of a difficult spot for him.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: He's facing a decent lineup.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: Although I know the Mets have the better lineup of
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: the two here, it's still a decent lineup and it's
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: a here friendly park here, so Sprout might be under
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: a little bit pressure. Even though you know me, I
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: usually like to go with guys in their major league debut,
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: but it's I have to look at their numbers to
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: see if they're numbers are that good.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: His and Triple A don't really impress me. Man, So
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: I am a bit worried about that.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: His walk number has been too high as well, and
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is actually not that high even though
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: he has a pretty fast fastball. He's not striking out
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys at Triple A. And if you're
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: not fooling guys at Triple A, you're not really gonna
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: be fooling guys at the major league level either. And
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: you know, major league hitters can hit upper nineties fastballs
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: pretty easily. Almost everybody in the league can just hit
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: those things, So you gotta have location and movement on
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: those things. And I read the scouty report on MLB
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: dot com specifically, even says that Sprote is kind of
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: leaving that fastball up in the zone too much and
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: that it doesn't have enough like rise on it or
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: something like that to fool the hitters.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: So it seems not good to me.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: So we're gonna go with who I think is the
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: way better release too starting pitchers of the whips. I
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: just got rid of the schedule. I wanted to have
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: the schedule up here so I could look.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: At the Reds.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: The Reds have Hunter Green on the mom man. You
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: know me, I'm a hundred Green fan. I like Hunter
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: Green despite his puking all over the mound all the time.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: He's probably the best pitcher in the Reds rotation, and
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: I know Abbott having a really good season. Green tends
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: to fly out of the radar because he seems to
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: get injured.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: Too often, but he's good man.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: I identified him as a good pitcher even back when
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: his numbers weren't really there yet as far as ZRA
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: or whatever, but they certainly are now two point seven
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: e ra point nine to seven whips, so he's throwing
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: a decent amount of innings this year and his whip
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: is still below one, which is very good. And he's
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: even better at home, even though it's a hitter friendly park.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: He has a one point seventy five homey RA. Since
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: he's come back from injury in August after he missed
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: a couple of months, his team has won three of
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: his four outings. He's allowed three or few earn runs
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: in every outing. He's got at least five innings in
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: every outing. His most difficult outing, the only one where
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: he didn't really do that well, was against the Dodgers
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: on the road, So you can give him a pass
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: for that. I mean, he had a shutout at home
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: against Philly, pitched well last time out at home against
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: Toronto seven strikeouts, one walk, wonner and run, and six
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: and a third five hits. So he's pitching well recently,
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: and he's pitching even better at home. He basically just
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: picked right up where he left off, and his numbers
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: against the Mets are solid and sixty five at bats
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: fifteen to four strake a walk, razio two thirty one
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: average allowed. The only concern is that he has a
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: seven to fifty two ops allowed to them. So the
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: home runs is because of the home runs, so that
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: seems like a little flukey to me. Pete Alonzo has
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: hit two on the runs off, but he is only
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: two for nine off him, so I'm a little bit
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: less worried about that. I think overall, it does suggest
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: that his numbers are good, and we know Green is good.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: Some of those numbers might have been in the past
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: before he was as dominant as he is now.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: And the money seems to be backing this one up too.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: Here it is even though Cincinnati did drop for minus
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: one twenty three to minus one seventeen, they got fifty
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: three percent of tickets, seventy six percent of the cash
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: coming in on the money is coming in on Cincinnati.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: I like it.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna back Hunter Green in this one, man, So
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: that is gonna be the only baseball player. I don't
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: love the baseball card today, so that'll be the only one.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: So that's gonna do it. Man, did I put the
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: best bets segment out right? The graphic. I'll put it
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: up again just in case my autism. Man, So once
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: again baseball, we're gonna have the reds money line and
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: then NFL. Go watch my NFL show from last night. Man,
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: if you want the analysis. We got the Jets plus three,
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: Giants plus six, Houston plus three, so you can go
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: check out the NFL show for the analysis on those.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: I know it sounds bad obviously, you know me. I
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: go very contrarian, especially in football. So we will see.
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: It looks like I'm a little bit worried that the
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: money's not totally supporting the Jets one right now, Steelers
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: sixty take a sixty eight percent of the cash, but
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: they are still public, so do what that would you will?
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: The Colts have moved up, by the way, so quick
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: money read here. I'm gonna do a quick market read here.
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: The Colts have moved up a little bit, so they're
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: an anti public favorite, so I do like the Colts.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: Jags seem to be getting a lot of late money,
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: so they seem to be the preferred side there. The
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: money is still coming in towards the Giants, even though
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: it looks like the line has moved up maybe a
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: little bit, so you might be able to get six
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: and a half on the Giant even though it looks
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: like the smarter money is actually still coming in towards
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: the Giants. It looks like Bengals dropped even further on
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: the line there, with the cash seemingly coming in towards
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: the Browns, so that they look like the way to
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: go in that game. The money looks like it's now
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: coming in on the Patriots late, even though I initially
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: kind of lean to the Raiders and they have more
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: continuity there, but that's a tough one to gauge, man,
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: so I'm gonna have to kind of rethink that.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: And the money's kind of coming in on the over
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: now now that.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: The total it looks like the total went up even
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: though it's raining now, which is insane to think about.
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: So that's not gonna be a game I'm gonna recommend anything,
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: and I got to figure out which team to pick
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: and pick them in that one. Cardinals very public with
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: less of the money on them, So that's very concerning
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: because I think I like the Cardinals as my survivor plan.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to survive in week one. That is brutal.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: Falcons look like they have the money still, like I
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: talked about yesterday, the cash coming in on them, so
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: that looks like the right way to go. Broncos are
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: still a public side, looks like the money more so
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: kind of back into Titans plus the points there. I
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: looks like the money is still aid the forty nine ers.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: But that was when I have difficulty with that one man,
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: because I really don't love the Seahawks, especially in their
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: first game with all these new pieces there.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: So it's very weird to.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: See the professional money kind of going with the Seahawks
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: in that game.
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: A little bit worrisome. I don't know what to do
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: with that game.
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: And then the Packers still going to anti public favorite
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: at home, but the money is slightly coming in on
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: the line, although I think I still maintained my lean
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: to the Packers in that one.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: The money's kind of coming in on the.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: Rams a little bit here as far as the number,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: you might be able to get three and a half
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: on Houston, but I like Houston in this one. If
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 2: you can get three and a half, I mean, that's
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: obviously an even better number there. Ravens, the money seems
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: to be coming in on the Ravens now. I talked
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: about that last night, So I do lean to the
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: Ravens in the night game, and then tomorrow we'll talk
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: about tomorrow's game tomorrow. But the vikings I think are
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: the right side there. Cash percentage doesn't reflect there right now,
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: but it looks like the money is the line is
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: at least kind of moving their direction. So quick market
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: read there. Oh sorry, fuck man, I'm sorry. I thought
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: I still had the screen up. But there you go,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: real quick run down there. But I gotta get this
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: video up. I gotta get my Instagram videos up, got
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: to get my picks settled. I still have like an
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: hour and a half though, gotta get ready for it.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: But yeah, there's the read for you there, real quick.
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: I mean you can just go. I mean, this is
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: pregames event center. If you want to just go and
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: look at it yourself anyway, that's gonna do it, man, Ana,
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: what's up?
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: Thanks for saying hi.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: Learn to tone on Twitter, Learn a Tone on Instagram obviously,
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: like subscribe here on YouTube to Better Off Dead. We're
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: on the audio, so give me good review over there too.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: Spotify Apple Covered in UK is my ukulele project on YouTube,
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: so check that out. And then patreon dot com slash
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: learn to toad you can throw some support towards me
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: and you get some bonus ute content, which I know.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: I have to still keep up up with that because
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: it's just so quick to just post it on Twitter, and.
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: I got to keep up with it.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: I think I'm behind by one or two of the
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: covers that I posted on Twitter as far as putting
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: them on YouTube, and I gotta get them back on
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: the Spotify feed for the pagron, so I know I
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: have to do that.
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: I gotta consider the Patreons. But that's gonna do it
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: for now. I feel like I'm a really busy man
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: here man, But everybody have a good Sunday, Happy NFL day.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: Red Zone is gonna suck. Fucking ads I hate this shit.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: ESPN Disney they ruin everything. This is for them. Fuck off,
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: ESPN Disney, Fuck all of you. You have to ruin everything.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: Red Zone was perfect since its inception and now you
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: have gone and fucked that up to the NFL was also.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: You know they're also at fault for that. So fuck
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: them all. That's gonna do it. Enjoy today, peace, everybody,