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Vaccine Will Migrate Into Pre-Filled Syringes: BD CEO · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
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  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Yeah. I'm excited to
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: be joined by Sarah ponzac here, cross asset reporter. As
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: we get into dig into the markets, I want to
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: get over to the CEO of Beckton Dickinson joining us
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: to talk about the global medical technology companies strides in
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: helping to fight the pandemic that is COVID. Nineteen. Tom
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  Speaker 1: Poland joins us right now, and Tom really appreciate your time.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I know this must have been an incredibly busy uh
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: year and now year and a half for you. Um
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: where do you stand right now in the fight against COVID.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Thank you Madden and Sarah for for having me. So
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  Speaker 1: Bedias has a very broad um roll in in combating COVID,
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  Speaker 1: and we we have been busy from the start, not
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  Speaker 1: only working closely when we're a global company, and so
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  Speaker 1: I had a role whether or not the outbreaks in
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  Speaker 1: China through Europe to the US. We've been on the
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  Speaker 1: front lines right from the start. Today we are a
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  Speaker 1: major provider of solutions for rapid diagnosis of COVID with
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  Speaker 1: fifteen minute point of care tests as well as molecular
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  Speaker 1: tests which we've enabled u of any patient who ends
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  Speaker 1: up in an ICU with COVID will be touched by
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  Speaker 1: one of our devices, and so we have a major
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  Speaker 1: role there. And today we're very, very actively focused on
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  Speaker 1: ramping up production of syringes. As the world leader in
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  Speaker 1: syringes for delivering vaccines. We've committed to make an incremental
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  Speaker 1: one billion syringes this year specifically for providing COVID doses
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  Speaker 1: to COVID vaccine doses around the world. So this is
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  Speaker 1: how we're so lucky to have you today, because not
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  Speaker 1: only do you manufacture medical tools, you guys have been
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  Speaker 1: at the forefront of creating COVID nineteen testing diagnostics as well. So,
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  Speaker 1: with that said, seeing the production ramp up, where do
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  Speaker 1: we stand now and not just the fight against COVID nineteen,
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  Speaker 1: but also when it comes to COVID nineteen testing diagnostics.
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  Speaker 1: Clearly we have come a very very far away in
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  Speaker 1: the matter of matter of a year. Absolutely mean, we
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  Speaker 1: went from not having any tests really to diagnosed covid
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  Speaker 1: given it it really wasn't relevant before two we for example,
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  Speaker 1: we normally take it takes about three years to develop
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  Speaker 1: a new diagnostic test, and we were able to do
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  Speaker 1: so in three months and ramp up production. We're a
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  Speaker 1: leader in rapid testing for flu testing traditionally and have
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  Speaker 1: been so for for over ten years. And let's say
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  Speaker 1: in a normal year of flu, we may make ten
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  Speaker 1: ten million tests in a very severe flu season, maybe
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  Speaker 1: eight million tests in a normal flu year. We quickly
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  Speaker 1: ramped up to make ten million tests a month um
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  Speaker 1: for COVID testing, so very significant increases. And I think today, um,
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  Speaker 1: what's very positive is is that testing capacity exists right
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  Speaker 1: that we've passed the point where testing capacity is an issue.
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  Speaker 1: There's more capacity than there is requirements today and I
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  Speaker 1: think that's that's obviously a great thing. We're seeing really
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  Speaker 1: good success with the vaccine deployment as well, and I
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  Speaker 1: think we'll continue to see progress there um. And of
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  Speaker 1: course today testing is beginning to shift a bit from
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  Speaker 1: the focus on testing symptomatic patients to beginning to focus
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  Speaker 1: on testing to help reopen the economy and schools and
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  Speaker 1: businesses and the like. So in terms of the company,
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  Speaker 1: what do you need to do? Two um, impress investors
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  Speaker 1: a little bit more. Tom, I look at the chart
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  Speaker 1: of Beckon Dickinson stock versus the SMP and versus the
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  Speaker 1: health care sector, and you've underperformed from the beginning of why.
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  Speaker 1: Why do you think that is? Yeah, it's it's a matter.
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  Speaker 1: It's good question. I think in fairness, there was a
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  Speaker 1: we had a quality issue when we when I first
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  Speaker 1: took over in the first week that we were addressing
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  Speaker 1: and that that has been overhanging the stock. As we
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  Speaker 1: look at being able to get that submitted and resolved,
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  Speaker 1: which is forthcoming here UM in the in the next
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  Speaker 1: quarter or two. We've communicated very clearly, I think that
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  Speaker 1: that will be a very positive factor for the stock.
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  Speaker 1: And then as we think going forward, we continue to
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  Speaker 1: execute on our strategy around driving new innovations into the
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  Speaker 1: marketplace for growth. Of course, we're driving a lot of
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  Speaker 1: new solutions to help address the COVID pandemic and that
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  Speaker 1: that will take care of itself. This is obviously our
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  Speaker 1: aim strategy and to be very fair to you, Tom,
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  Speaker 1: you took over the CEO roll at a pretty difficult time.
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  Speaker 1: You cond say, I mean right when COVID nineteen was
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  Speaker 1: really beginning. Would you say that you have a philosophy
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  Speaker 1: or a theme as to how you're approaching the chief
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  Speaker 1: executive officer role at b D and has that changed
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  Speaker 1: over the past year as we have had to deal
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  Speaker 1: with the pandemic. But I think for us, we're gonna
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  Speaker 1: come out stronger at the after the pandemic in terms
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  Speaker 1: of how we've used the challenge to be able to
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  Speaker 1: accelerate how we think about growth in our culture and
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  Speaker 1: our company. The example of being able to develop an
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  Speaker 1: essay in three months that normally takes three years, being
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  Speaker 1: able to scale production of products like i V sets
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  Speaker 1: and syringes at unprecedented rates and levels um shows really
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  Speaker 1: unleashes and demonstrates the agility that we have as a
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  Speaker 1: large company. And what we're very focused on is maintaining
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  Speaker 1: that momentum in as the world gets control of COVID,
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  Speaker 1: and we can see a lot of momentum um that
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  Speaker 1: we've built over that period time, whether or not it's
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  Speaker 1: very much larger installation footprints of our point of care
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  Speaker 1: devices because of COVID that now we're adding additional menu
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  Speaker 1: to same thing on our molecular footprint side, or how
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  Speaker 1: we're for example, expanding our pharmaceutical systems business and being
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  Speaker 1: able to create new injection device capacity as ultimately COVID
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  Speaker 1: vaccines will migrate into pre filled syringes, will create opportunities
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  Speaker 1: for us to help the world on a long term
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  Speaker 1: basis there as well. So, UM, we definitely see COVID
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  Speaker 1: has properly has given I think the world in many
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  Speaker 1: businesses an opportunity to to think differently about growth and
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  Speaker 1: accelerate growth over the long term. All right, Tom, thanks
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  Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Appreciate your time here. Tom
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  Speaker 1: Poland is the president CEO of the global medical technology
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  Speaker 1: company b D. Beckon, Dickinson and Company. Sara Pontze are
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: cross Asset Report. Her is joining me today is UM.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: We wish Paul a very happy Paul Sweeney out on
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: very well deserved KA day. We have seen Sarah some
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: amazing moves in the oil market today and we want
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: to bring in Ellen Wall to talk about that. She
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: is president of Transversal Consulting. She's also a Bloomberg Opinion contributor,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: and I guess Allen Transversal is uh sort of the
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  Speaker 1: intersection between geopolitics and energy policy? Is that? Is that fair? Yeah,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: that's exactly right. We're a boutique consulting firm that does
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  Speaker 1: work in the energy policy and geopolitics and energy markets sphere.
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  Speaker 1: So what do you make of today's OPEC meeting? They
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: agreed to keep output unchanged in April, but we have
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  Speaker 1: a jump of five or more on the underlying crude contracts. Yeah. Wow,
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  Speaker 1: this was This was a surprise, I think to most
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  Speaker 1: to most people going into this meeting because we saw
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  Speaker 1: a lot of headlines seeing that OPEQ was poised to
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  Speaker 1: kind of cool off an oil market that looks like
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  Speaker 1: it was about to overheat in prices, and instead, Uh,
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  Speaker 1: they're basically seem like they're about to fan the flames. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: It does look like Russia is going to get some
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  Speaker 1: kind of special permission to increase production about a hundred
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  Speaker 1: thousand barrels a day. Uh. They say they need this
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  Speaker 1: for domestic consumption, but when you look at the overall
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  Speaker 1: oil market, that's not all that much. Plus, so you've
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  Speaker 1: got that one million barrels a day that Saudi Arabia
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  Speaker 1: is holding off the market and they haven't heard for
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  Speaker 1: sure about that. And uh we know that the Saudi
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  Speaker 1: oil minister likes to uh make a splash and uh
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  Speaker 1: have a surprise at the press conference. Uh there is
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  Speaker 1: talk that the saudiast could actually decide to hold that
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  Speaker 1: oil off the market for April as well. And what
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  Speaker 1: a long strange trip it has been for oil prices.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, less than a year ago in April, we
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  Speaker 1: are talking about negative oil prices after another OPEC surprise.
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  Speaker 1: Today we get a surprise to the upside. And I'm
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  Speaker 1: looking at w t I crude oil now trading at
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  Speaker 1: the highest level since April. Like you said, they want
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  Speaker 1: the opposite way, possibly fanning the flames of overheating. What
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  Speaker 1: comes next after this, well, I think now we need
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  Speaker 1: to we need to start talking about the fact that
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  Speaker 1: UM gas prices in the United States could um we
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  Speaker 1: could be seeing average prices in the US hitting three
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  Speaker 1: dollars a gallon, which is a significant amount of money
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  Speaker 1: for people who aren't used to paying that much. Plus
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  Speaker 1: we've got that on top of by the way, I laugh,
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  Speaker 1: ha ha, I laugh from here in Berlin. Three dollars
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  Speaker 1: a gallon. What I wouldn't do for three dollar a
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  Speaker 1: gallon gasoline? Yeah, well, well in Florida where I am,
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  Speaker 1: I think it's about to sixty right now, so um
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  Speaker 1: so yeah, it's it's it's a big deal. I think
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  Speaker 1: for a lot of people that are still very much
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  Speaker 1: hurting from uh from the economic consequences of the pandemic
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  Speaker 1: and UH, that could really pose some some hardship to people,
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  Speaker 1: particularly this summer when gasoline prices generally rise. Of course,
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  Speaker 1: you have to look at US production. Typically when when
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  Speaker 1: oil prices rise like this, we see US production uh
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  Speaker 1: increasing and kicking into here. But we've really had oil
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  Speaker 1: basically holding study in the US about eleven million barrels today.
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  Speaker 1: A lot of the big producers are saying that they
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  Speaker 1: are not planning any increases. But you know, with w
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  Speaker 1: T I uh, you know, up at sixty four dollars
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  Speaker 1: a barrel, I really don't see how how they can
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  Speaker 1: maintain this discipline. How you know, anyone with with with
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  Speaker 1: some money, can you hire a hire a crew and
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  Speaker 1: get something going down in Texas if there's money to
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: be made. So I wouldn't be surprised if, um, if
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: we do see production kicking up somewhat in the US
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  Speaker 1: in response to these higher prices. At the same time,
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  Speaker 1: you've also got to look at India and China, which
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  Speaker 1: India is really a most taking OPAC to increase production
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  Speaker 1: because of rising prices there, and you have to really say, well,
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  Speaker 1: what is that going to do to their economies and
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: to their economic recovery. I'm paying about seven fifty seven
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I think in dollars a gallon, and my truck uses
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: about uh well, I'm so used to thinking about in
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: European ways, so you know, like sometimes thirty leaders for
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: a hundred kilometers, but I guess it's about ten miles
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: per gallon is what I get in my truck. So
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: and nonetheless, um, ellen, I will be driving as much
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  Speaker 1: as I can when this lockdown is done. You know,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: a huge carbon footprint because I need to get out.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: I've been cooped up for so long. Is that you
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: think the same for everybody else? Well, I think in
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: the US, and maybe a little different because some places
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: have been open for a long time. But I do
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: think that we are going to see a third. Um,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: We're still looking at a deficit in jet fuel demand
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  Speaker 1: because air travel is not picking up the same way
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  Speaker 1: road travel will be. And I think that given continuing restrictions,
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  Speaker 1: that we're still going to see jet fuel not really
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: recovering two pre pandemic levels anytime soon. But so the
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: question is can can gasoline demand make up for that?
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: And in some in some respects it definitely can make
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: up for some of that UH deficit. But what we're
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: really looking at is actually plastics, and we've seen an
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: increase in production in the United States in terms of
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: of plastic, single use plastics especially, and that's actually um
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: taking up some of that UH deficit in jet field demand.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: I will say that, although I have a large carbon footprint,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: I'm very much against plastics, so I try and balance out,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: you know, my eco activism in that sense. Allan, thanks
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: so much, Ellen Warred. They're joining us from transversal consulting.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: She's also a Bloomberg opinion columnist. Sarah Ponzak. I'm so
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: proud that you used a grateful dead reference. I had
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: a feeling that you might you might like that. You
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: must just about five when Jerry died, but I appreciate it. Nonetheless,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: oil trading up five percent at sixty even Matt Miller
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: here in Berlin alongside Sarah Ponzak in New York. We
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: are joined by former portfolio manager and head of research
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: at Rubicon Fund Management, who uh has written, Richard Cookson,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: who has written a pretty amazing column i'd say for
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion. Richard, I am, you know, as a professional journalist,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: a sensationalist. I love alarmism and if you if you
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: say black Monday is coming, that just gets me going.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: So why do you think we're headed for possibly a
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: crash the likes of which we haven't seen since n Well,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: I didn't quite what it. The tong is? Does that
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: the actually what I said, the mechanism is quite similar.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: And I did go back to night in seven. Do
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: you have as many gray hairs as I have? Um?
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: What was the big driving factor in October seven was
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: something called portfolio insurance where these guys called Layland and
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Brown and Rubinstein decided he didn't need to buy options.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: You could go and replicate them and they told you
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: how much you needed to sell. And basically what happened
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: was that you've got this force selling into markets, the
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: mechanistic selling. Now. I say that because actually if you
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: look at every single bank and large institutions risk management.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: There's something called value at risk, and very simply, what
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: this does is it looks at the last year that
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: you can use longer and it says, okay, what's the
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: volatility over that time period, and what's the correlation of
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: that time period, and you whagged all that in the
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: transiard and number. Now, if those volatilities start to start
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: to go up, and if correlations starts to shift, then
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: mechanistically you're going to get some selling. You can put
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: more capital in, but actually, guess what, when you're losing money,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: you tend just to sell. So it's the same sort
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: of mechanistic process. In other words, particularly if those correlations flipped.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: So what you've seen is equity markets falling at the
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: same time as long dated treasury bonds falling. That is
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: a real problem because they assume that most of the time,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: and most I mean of the time, that's not going
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: to happen. So you're assuming that it it happens only on
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: five percentifications it's happening more than five percent. So you're
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: starting to see forced selling in both markets now the
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: longer term typically because typically um investors see at least
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: in my young lifetime, I'm not even I'm not even
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: fifty yet. Investors see bonds as a safe haven for
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: when stocks are coming down. So um, you buy bonds
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: when you're worried about selling stocks, and you can get
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: read of your bonds when you want to buy equities.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: You're saying that, and that that has kind of looked
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: like it's changing over the last couple of weeks. Well, again,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: it's a very interesting question that that that negative correlation
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: between the two, because before about that was positive. In
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: other words, for decades. Previously, it tended to to tend
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: to go in tandem. In other words, trojury bonds sold
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: off at the same time as equities and vice versa.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: Now that changed. The best evidence suggests that it changed
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: because you had disinflacetory pressures, and I think you've got
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: far more inflationary pressures coming through at a time when
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: both equities and bonds are very expensive. So you're relying
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: upon a correlation that has actually only been um there
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: for the last twenty years or so to protect yourself. Now,
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: all I'm saying is that if you have those correlations
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: flipping the other way around, from a risk management point
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: of view, you're going to be able to less of
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: both because they're not losses in one is not going
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: to be able to offset again to the other and
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: vice versa. I can see. And what's interesting, it's such
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: an interesting we could have this conversation for an hour,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: right because it's so weird that disinflation worries happened in
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: like after Paul Walker, all of a sudden, woot disinflation.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: It was the opposite of what he's famous for. So, Sarah,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: what do you think watching Paul Worker was the early Yeah,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: Paul Worker was remember the early eighties. It was really
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: when China came along um and added surface capacity to
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: the to the world economy, got these disinflationary pressures coming through.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: And if you look over the last twenty years, what
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: changed for America has been you've got this persistent disinflation
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: coming through from importants. So all I'm saying is that
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: actually you're starting to get some inflationy pressures coming through,
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: both because of the supply side shocks from the pandemic,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: but also you've got central banks um pretty money on
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: a fairly unprecedented scale. Add at the same time telling
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: we're not going to work, which is either them being
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: stupid or mendacious possible combination, and we do see five
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: year break even inflation expectations now at the highest level
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: since two thousand and eight. Just last week, speaking of
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: that flipping correlations, we actually saw real yields and US
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: equities the correlation between the two dropping to the most
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: negative level in five years. And I would love to
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: read a really quick excerpt from your opinion piece, Richard,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: where you say the bigger point, however, is this this disinflation.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Disinflationary forces that help propel assets higher are turning into
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: inflationary ones. And if that leads to a shift in
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: bond equity correlations that seems to be happening, institutions big
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: and small will have to stump up more capital or
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: reduce risk across the board. But my question to that is,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: if you need to reduce risk, but you can't go
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: to bonds because all of a sudden, bonds and stocks
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: are moving in tandem, how do you actually go about
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: reducing risk? Right? You just have to be basically, and again,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: it's not just bonds and equities, it's bombs and risk.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: So if you look at you know, credit, or you
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: look at junk bombs, you'll find that actually there's a
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: very very strong relationship between the performance aspectory markets and
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: performance of credit. So actually what you need to do
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: in those sorts of situations is just to hold much
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: more cash and all by a lot of volatility. So
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: if you've noticed, even though you've seen a tear in
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: equity mark, volatility and equity marks between persistently bit and
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: that's what happens when you can't head with bombs. It's
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: I mean by holding much more cash isn't something you
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: want to do if you're truly worried about inflation, which
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: is driving this. I have to say at the at
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: the offset which are apologizing for dramaticizing your column, because
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: I didn't even have to. I think it's an incredibly
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: well thought out and well written peace and I really
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: appreciate you joining us, and I will recommend to all
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: of our listeners just check out if you have a
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal in front of you O P I N
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: go to check out Richard's calum It's honestly, it's one
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: of the most interesting columns I've read on the opinion
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: page in uh In in a long time, and I
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: read opinion columns. Um you know regularly. It's probably my
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: favorite section on the Bloomberg terminal. So this value at risk. Uh,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: you know that we lay people became familiar with. I
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: think during the h and Coldman Sachs was called up
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill in front of Senator Carl Levin. UM.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: I haven't really thought about it since then, and it's
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: really great to see UM and also a little bit scary,
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: honestly to see this because Sarah's question is good one.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: What do you go to if you're worried about um
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: of our shock and cash is terrifying? Volatility is a
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: very interesting answer, and that's one I'm going to continue
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: to delve into with our guests UM throughout. Richard Cookson there.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: He's a former portfolio manager and head of research at
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Rubicon Fund Management and a Bloomberg opinion columnist for US.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Now check it out, O, P, I N go. This
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. All right, let's get over right now to
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: someone who might advise my parents if they had a
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: lot more money. Michael Sonnfeld joins US chairman of Tiger
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: twenty one on how the ultra wealthy are investing. And Michael,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: it's especially interesting to ask you what you think of
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: the Elizabeth Warren tax plan. There are some very wealthy
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: people that are for a wealth tax um, but probably
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: more who think it's pretty Unamerican. What's your take? Thanks
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: for having me. Most of our members are entrepreneurs who
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: spent twenty thirty years creating businesses from scratch, their first
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: generation wealth creators, and the wealth tax would be in
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: their mind antithetical. Most of our members are willing to
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: pay taxes, even progressive taxes, so the more money you
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: make on income, the more you pay. But a wealth
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: tax creates a real problem for people who own businesses.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: If you if you have everything tied up in a
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: business and they give you a wealth tax, you can't
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: sell two percent of a business or five percent of
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: a business. Uh. And if you look at yields on
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: a bond, if you have a wealth tax on top
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: of an income tax, you can't even break even on it.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: So there's a lot of negatives and I don't think
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: it would improve the economy particularly right Well, clearly we
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: have a new presidential administration, and it will be interesting
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: down the line to see what the Biden tax plan
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: in actuality actually looks like and what the policies and
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: encompasses actually hold. I want to get to how many
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: of your members over at Tiger twenty one are actually
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: looking at markets and thinking about markets these days, you
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: release information on how your members are positioned, and something
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: that really jumped out at me was that only three
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: percent allocation to hedge funds, which is a historical low.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: And I was hoping you could give us some color
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: on really what's driving this, what's behind this? Sure, this
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: is a this is a ten year low. Hedge funds
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: were more than twice as much as a proportion. But
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: hedge funds typically, although there are many strategies, in general
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: relate to the risk free or government rate, and when
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: you have very low rates, it's very hard for hedge
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: funds to produce the kind of historic returns that made
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: them stars. And then you have the compounding effect that
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: hedge funds generally have very high fees, which are acceptable
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: when they're delivering ten and fifteen and returns, but in
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: this very low interest rate environment, hedge funds just can't
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: produce there. They can't squeeze the juice enough to make
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: it attractive, and then it gets even hot harder when
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: you look at the fees. This is what our members
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: are doing in meetings is comparing the different opportunities, and uh,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: they're just not adding up to hedge funds these days.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: What about private equity, It's I think interesting that, um,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: after real estate, your uh, your I guess group of
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: investors is most invested in private equity after in real estate,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: and that's even better than public equity. Yeah, it's it's
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: it's an extraordinary evolution. Are members over the last decade
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: have gone from low teens, ten eleven, twelve percent private
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: equity to it's the one area over the last decade
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: that has moved forward all the time. You know, are
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: members because our members are first, first generation wealth creators
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: and they come together in these groups they're comparing notes.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: The three places they're most invested is real estate, as
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: you say, private equity, in public equity, those three still
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: add up to almost eighty percent, so they're fully invested.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: But it's in the private equity where you can really
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: create wealth if you can roll up your shirt sleeves
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: and you have the skills to build businesses. It's the
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: small businesses that grow into business is that are big
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: enough to be owned or bought by public companies where
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: the largest amount of wealth is created, and that's what
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: our members represent. It's it's sort of making creating wealthy
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: the old time way in America. So lately you mentioned
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: the risk the rate of return. We've seen long end
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: rates rising. You now see rates at pre pandemic highs
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: where in the midst of the fastest quarterly increase in
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: tenure yield since would you say, though, that this move
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: is getting to a point where you or your members
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: would say, maybe this isn't such a great sign. You know, um,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: most of our members are more entrepreneurs than investors. Their
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: skill sets are not as market based as they are
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: building businesses, and what they see is the potential of inflation.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: Inflation hasn't happened in the last couple of years on
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: the wage side, and things that people buy, if you're
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: UH in terms of living have not gone up, but
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: assets have gone up. But look at just you just
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: mentioned a few minutes ago, lumber prices up a hundred percent.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: There's recent reports that we might be in a commodity supercycle.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: One example that we talked about in our groups is
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: that the whole inter the whole UH infrastructure is going
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: to be rewired for new energy copper is going to
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: be a long bet. That's amazing. So we could have
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: rising interest rates UH and inflation and I wouldn't bet
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: against it. Michael, thanks so much for joining us. Really
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: appreciate your time. Michael sonnon Felt, their chairman of Tiger.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: at Matt Miller three. Pet On Paul Sweeney, I'm on
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio