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NFL Week 11 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: is our week eleven Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Melman,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Chief Content.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: We are coming off of a three and two week
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: in our contest.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: We reviewed most of our.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Day extensively in our Sunday Night recap episode, but since
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: we had contest plays on The Jets on Sunday Night
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: and The Broncos on Monday Night for posterity, we went
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: one in one in those plays. We're going to dig
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: in a little bit for a minute on that. As
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: we said on the show on Sunday, a lot of
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: the lines we liked have already moved, which is why
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: you need to listen to the Sunday show if you
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: want to get the best of the number.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: Today.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, we will get to our Simon says and our
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: exec decision. And by the way, don't forget me and
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Simon going live in Hoboken, New Jersey, December third. The
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Sunday Night episode Shepherd and the Knucklehead in Hoboken. Free
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: to get in, free drinks, free chance to bet with
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: me and Simon to troll. Me and Simon will be
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: there for the afternoon games betting along with our friends
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five. You must rsvp. You must
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: check out the link in the description on the YouTube
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: page for this show and in the podcast page. Also
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: go to event bright dot com search the Favorites podcast
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: for more info and to rsvp this episode, we're going
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: to look the entire board as we begin narrowing down
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: the five picks we'll enter in the Favorites Podcast. One
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contests still open
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: for sign ups, still free to play, still awarding weekly
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: in season long cash prizes go to Favorites dot Actionnetwork
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: dot com. Heading into week eleven, Simon and I are
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: in the top one hundred in the contest no joke,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: five words behind the number one spot. Out of eleven
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: six hundred entries. We're inside the top one percent. I
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: expect it, yet it's still exciting. Everyone expects it of us, Simon,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: because that's what happens when you're freaking professionals.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: The entire leaderboard going to.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Get a shake up after the Thanksgiving week games. Everyone's
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: two lowest scores will get dropped. The leaderboard will re calibrate.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Let's bring in my co host, my bff, my companion,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: mikem Padre, professional better Simon Hunter. Simon, Hello, Hello Simon.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Here's the cold, hard truth about last week with so
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: much drama. We had a late night call from Hawaii
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: to Copenhagen because we had intel coming in. We made
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: big changes in the moment. We pulled two games out
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: of our original picks. We put two different games in
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: after all that, if we had done nothing, it would
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: have been exactly the same. We would have ended up
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: three and two, which shows you a how freaking hard
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: all of this is and how thin the margins are
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: for success and failure. I was watching that game last
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: night when we had the game going, I'm like, it
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter what happens. Nothing we did over the weekend
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: would have changed from what we decided on Thursday. Isn't
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: that amazing?
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah? And it's also it just shows that this is
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: just a grind, like we always joke about it, but
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: that's what it is. End of the day where it's like,
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: I know everyone wishes we could go five and oh
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: or four and one every week, but that's just not
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: real life. Real life is you are the sharpest guy
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: in the room if you can go sixty percent. Me
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: and Chad talk about that all the time, and our
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: goal is always three in two and I have to
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: work really really hard to suck just enough to go
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: three and two every week. Like people don't know how
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: hard I work just to get that three on that
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: board every week. So felt good, especially after that Jets game,
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: a really hard week last week, and this week. I mean,
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: I hate the Jinxes, but I love these lines. I
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: love these lines this week.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: No no, no, no, no no no. I didn't hear what
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: you said.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: I was yelling and nobody heard what you said because
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: we're not saying it.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: We're just not going to say it.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: three six five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: anyone else. Every day they power up the odds on
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  Speaker 1: hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more.
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  Speaker 1: Bet three six five boosts specific markets, your winnings, and
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  Speaker 1: even parlays, and they don't stop there. Keep an eye
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  Speaker 1: out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible
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  Speaker 1: super Boost Check out the boosts and see why It's
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  Speaker 1: never ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: one or old and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: or Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: called one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. As a reminder,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube. For
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: Here we go. Tough week in the contest.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Like we said, Week ten saw only forty eight entries
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: finish five and oh just one percent of entries. Congrats
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: to our first place winner, mo Key Bra enjoy the cash.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup award goes to JR Head thirteen
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: for finishing dead fucking last in the Week ten contest
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: going on five, missing the tiebreaker by two hundred and
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: eighty four yards.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: Jr.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Please email producer Matt Mitchell at podcast at actionnetwork dot
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: com to claim your non cash prize.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: Thanks for planning.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Contest is now live. The tiebreaker total rushing yard on
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Monday night football, good lock all right, Week eleven. I mean,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: we're in the double digits. Teams are becoming what we
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: think they are. They're not in a place where you're like, oh,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: this team could be different. These teams are what they are.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is visiting Baltimore. Baltimore's favored by three and a half.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: It's a Thursday night game, the first of seven divisional matchups.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: And divisional matchups have been a key driver of success
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: for us this year. We tend to like the dogs.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: I'll say this stat a lot today. Home teams in
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: the division since twenty fifteen are covering it just a
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: forty seven percent spread.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: That includes Baltimore.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Home favorites in the division since twenty fifteen, just a
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: forty five percent spread. Harball is a favorite of three
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: and a half for more under five hundred against the spread.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: Lamar is a.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Favorite of three and a half for more under five
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: hundred against the spread. And yeah, and yet, Simon, we
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: don't love the Bengals here.
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have crazy value on this line. I
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: make it number four. It's three and a half. I'm
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: on the Ravens then, so it's nothing crazy. I mean,
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: don't have to think too much into it. It's a
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: simple fact of it's a short week. You know, the
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: Bengals just played a really hard game. Now they're coming
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: on the road to play a team that they're coming
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: off their own bad loss, so just just a bat.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: It feels like a bad spot for the Bengals, and
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: you know, if you want to back them until they
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: get it, you're catching three and a half forward a
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: lot of books. You feel pretty good back in Joe
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: Burrow at that number. But keep in mind, I have
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: this stat here from Evan Abrams. The Bengals are one
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: in twenty three in their last twenty four road night games,
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: so you know their last win came back in twenty twelve.
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: That's a big deal. It's a team that at home,
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: Joe Burrow has done well in these night games, right,
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: Even me and Chat took them earlier this year against
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: the Bills at home. I believe they won by six.
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: They you know, they're just a different team, it seems
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: like at home than they are on the road, especially
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: in this spot, like going into play that Ravens team.
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: We know how crazy and loud that fan base can
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: be for the Ravens, and you know the fact this
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: is a standalone game, divisional game. Again, I can't fault
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: you for taking it chat to shit you with all
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: those stats. I just I don't like it that it's
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: a short week this late in the season. To me,
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: that's a big deal, and that gives a huge advantage
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: to this Ravens team, especially a team that you know
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: they're they're much better than that they played against the
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: Browns team.
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: I think I saw a crazy stat. I'm almost positive
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: Watson went fourteen for fourteen passing in the second half
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: against that Ravens team. You don't think they know that, Like,
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: that's gonna be bolton board material. That's embarrassing. That's embarrassing
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: to let that happen to you at home and blow
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: a fourteen point lead. So I'm gonna trust the Ravens
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: here to bounce back in this spot. And we talked
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: coming in the season, this Bengals team, not that I
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: knew they're gonna have a season from hell, but I
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: said it to you. They'd won their division two years
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: on a like winning the North two years in a
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: row is basically a death sentence, just because you had
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: to have gotten so lucky for things to break right
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: for you to win in this tough division two years
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: in a row, and last year things broke right that
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: Lamar got hurt and they tailed off the Ravens and
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: the Bengals were able to catch up. This year, they
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: don't have that luck like these These quarterbacks have not
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: gotten hurt. Watson was the only one that's gone down
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: with an injury, and the Browns still won games with PJ.
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: Walker in there, Like the Bengals haven't had the luck
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: they've had in prior season. I mean even the Steelers, right,
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: the luckiest team in all football in their division. It
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: just hasn't broken right for this Bengals team. So yeah,
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: if you're betting like me on this Ravens team, you
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: might as well bet on the Bengals to miss the
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: playoffs as well, because if they don't win this game,
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: it feels like that's kind of it, right, They're gonna
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: miss the playoffs.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: God, that's a great idea.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: The only thing I can think of for this. I
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: keep watching Joe Burrow just be lip quivering devastated after
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: that loss to the Texans, to see how much it
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: means to him and sort of the pain. I'm not
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: saying that's why they can come back and win this game.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: But I actually just find it to be an incredibly
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: human moment about how much these guys put into each
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: week of preparation and their competitive spirit.
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: So I felt watching Josh Allen last night, it's like
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: you literally just saw a man die on the field,
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: like you saw the life get sucked out of them
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: when they said the twelfth man was on the field,
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: And it's like, these guys are so highly competitive, like
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: you just said, So I agree, but you got to
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: go look, Lamar is feeling the same way, right. Lamar's
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: got to own that pick six and he's got to
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: wear this loss he just had against Cleveland. So I'm
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: right there with you.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: I also was thinking about, you know, we were so
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: all in on the Bengals before we got off of them,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: before we got off of them last week. And I
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: do wonder if last week, like did we think we
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: kind of overlooked it. It might have been a trap
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: game because they were looking ahead to this week.
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: Potentially.
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: I justin I'm still in all of everything CJ did,
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: even when I went back and watch the tape. I
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: just can't believe how bad that Bengals defense, which we
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: talked about played like they gave up over one hundred
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: and fifty on the ground to a backup running back,
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: like another running back that left the Bills and went
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: somewhere else and now is getting one hundred and fifty
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: and you know, letting a rookie throw for over three
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: dred yards or whatever it was three fifty against you. Yeah,
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: just total total embarrassment by that Bengals defense.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Tennessee at Jacksonville. Jacksonville's at six and a half. It
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: opened at six. We talked about it on Sunday. I
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: really wanted to bite because of Rabel. You walked it
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: back in the moment, because of Levis, you thought it
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: might go up to six and a half. The flip
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: side is the Jacks coming off a bad loss, which
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: is historically when you want to play a team. And
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: then there's all the stats that I just read. It's
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: going to be redundant today. But all the stats I
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: just read about home teams, home favorites, road dogs, yeah all.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: Applies to this game.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: I think I care less about Will Levis being the
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: quarterback than you do. To me, I feel like I'm
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: playing the spot and the coach not necessarily being afraid
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: of the quarterback.
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm waiting on this one still. I still think
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: it has room to go up. I just believe everyone's
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: gonna come in with their teasers, their money line parlays
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: the public Will I'm hoping they'll keep driving this up
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: to seven. And that's what I'll come in with you, Chad.
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: So I'm with you, like, I'm not gonna make it
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: the biggest deal.
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: I just.
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: I said, all the time, we make these draft grades
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: and then you know not that it's like, oh, look,
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: how right I am. But it's like there's a reason
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: a lot of people had a second round grade on
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: Will Levis, Like you see the flashes of the things
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: he does great and then the things he does really bad,
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: and you know that's that's a problem. So I'm right
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: there with you where it's like, do I think the
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: kick and make one or two big plays for us?
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: I do, honestly, Like I've seen him make some throws
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: that are really impressive, and you know that combo with
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: him and Hopkins that's a real thing. So I can't
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: fall off you chat. I'm just my advice. Would we
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: just keep waiting, Like I think this could go up
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: to seven? So I'll keep waiting. Hopefully it goes up
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: to seven.
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so far, I haven't bet it. I've been holding off.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I actually feel like last week was a weird week
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: because I was traveling in Copenhagen and I left on Tuesday.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: I made so many more bets earlier in the week
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: than I.
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: Normally would right before you left, right before I.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Left, and then I made too many bets on Sunday
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: and ended up not having a great week because I
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: made stupid bets on Sunday because I was trying to
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: catch up to things. And so this week I'm being
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to be very thoughtful. Also, I think it's
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit as you said or tried to say,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: but I won't let you say.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Sp it's a.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Little bit easier this week. I've made like four or
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: five bets, but I haven't. That's not one of them yet. Also,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: not one of them is the Chargers minus three at
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Green Bay Lines moved down by half a point. I've
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: got a theory on bad quarterbacks. Okay, tell me what
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: you think of this.
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah, when it's time to bet them, there are the
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: backup quarterbacks who are catching a spot which we have
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: not been uncomfortable doing that in the past years.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: PJ.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Walker is an example of that, right, Gardner Minshew has
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: been an example of that. Then there are the serviceable
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: qbs who can keep the back door open in the
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: right spot, Taylor Heineke, Josh Bobbs, like they're sort of.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: In that realm.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Then you get to the qbs who cannot execute and
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: their lack of skill overpowers the spot. Mac Jones is
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: one of those guys, Okay, Zach Wilson is kind of
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: becoming one of those guys. Is Jordan Love one of
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: those guys?
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah? I don't know to deal with it though, because
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: I went back and watched that tape from that Pittsburgh game,
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: and you know, not that it's his best game he
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: ever played, right, and maybe that's still the Week one
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: against the Bears where it's like he threw for three
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: touchdowns and it was all wide open guys and really
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: simple reads. But in that Pittsburgh game, you know, he
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: was finally thrown to guys who weren't wide open like
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: he was throwing to like trusting his receivers, thrown into coverage,
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: not holding onto the ball for so long. But then
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: the second half he kind of reverted back to that
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: where he's like holding on to the ball for he's indecisive.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: You can just tell he's nervous and he's not comfortable.
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: And you know, maybe it does come down that missed
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: extra point, right, because if they just needed a field goal,
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: he had the team in the position to kick a
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: field goal right to go to overtime, but they needed
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: a touchdown. And it's like, I think even Green Bay
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: fans felt that. It's like you had no real faith
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: that that guy was going to drive the field and
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: score a touchdown there. And that's what's so tough here.
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: It's like, if we're going off this number of stinks
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: and we should be taking a side, it's green Bay, right,
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: Like the Chargers are a better team. They have a
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: much better quarterback, much better offense. You know, green Bay's
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: defense stops nobody really, especially good offenses. So weird number.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: But I'll just I'll stay away because I want to
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: take Green Bay. But Chad's right, we already missed the
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: three and a half. I'm not taking the three here,
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: like forget that. I'll wait and hope it gets back
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: to three and a half, or I just won't bet
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: this game because I hate it, to be honest.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Yep, dude, I think we're going to line up nicely
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: this week. I don't know if there's going to be
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: any crazy midnight calls to change everything to get us
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: through a place which is essentially the same as we
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: would be if we didn't change anything. But I like
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: the way we're trending right now because I don't like
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: that game either. All right, another one of our games.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: We got not only seven divisional games, we've got five
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: double digit underdogs this week. The New York Giants plus
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: ten at Washington is one of them. Remember that soliloquy
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: I just gave about bad quarterbacks? Yeah, forget it, because
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: how was this not a prime Giant spot. There's so
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: much there's so much inflation. The Commanders are not the Cowboys, okay.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: And then Brandon Anderson, who you know, we got to
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: give him his flowers because he had the Texans to
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: win the division in one of our preseason pods. But
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: he's also been nailing these hot reads that he does
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: in his Sunday night wrap up segment on the Action Pod.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: Everyone should go download it with Joe Golan and our
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: very own Evan Abrams they review every game from Sunday
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: to a little bit of a preview for Monday, and
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson will do a segment in which he looks
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: ahead at the lines for this week, always picks a
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: couple of games. He went in on the Giants plus
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: ten at Washington. And here's a stat, okay, going back
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: about twenty years, underdogs with a margin of loss essentially
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: of fourteen or worse from week five forward sixty six
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread, seventy three percent if they're on
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: the road. So the Giants like, not only is it
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: all those divisional stats, but then they have sort of
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: a another stat that supports it. It's not my favorite
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: double digit dog of the week, it's not my second
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: favorite double digit dog of the week, but it is
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: a double digit dog of the week that is interesting
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: to me.
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know. Even the stats can't convince me.
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: I'm all Washington. I just the Giants are. They're dead.
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: They're dead. They got nothing, they got nothing at the
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: quarterback position. I already talked about this guy. He's part
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: of the new NFL. Right, you bring in a third
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: stringer out of college, you're paying ten bucks an hour.
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: Let him sit on the back of the bench.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: With his mom, eat some chicken cutlets.
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: Bring us, bring us Starbucks in the morning, to the
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: quarterback room. That was this kid's life. And then their
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: quarterback went down. Then Tyrod Taylor went down. It's like
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: they're playing a true third stringer. This kid, he's horrible
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: passing the ball, but I mean he found it where
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: he figured out, oh, I can run, like I can
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: run the ball. He is going to survive maybe two
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: more weeks. This guy is going to get caught eventually.
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: So he's gonna run and a linebacker is going to
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: get a clean hit on him, and that's the end
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: of the Vito Like, that's just the end of the story.
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: So I want to be there with Chad, like I
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: think Washington just keeps covering like they I mean, yeah,
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: like every it feels like every week this team somehow covers,
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: and I just I keep believing in this offense like
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: being of me. I love him. I love this offense
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: so much. I love his schemes. Like everything he said
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: is so true that he was not getting his due
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: process just because everyone thought I was any reading Patrick
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: w homes in Kansas City and now look at them
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: since he's left. Look at that offense and how different
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: it is this year compared to the previous seasons, and
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: I love him. I love Washington's offensive schemes so much
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: like fire Ron Rivera. Make this man your a head coach.
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: He is the future. Like this guy, He's just so
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: offensively gifted. And I don't see the Giants. Yeah, they
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: have some guys on their defense that can get some stops,
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: but I don't know how they can keep up with
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: an offense here in Washington. So I do love some
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: double digit dogs and I'm with chatting a couple of them.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: This is not one I like Washington here.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: For the record, I haven't pulled the trigger in the
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: Giants yet either, because I don't know how they're gonna.
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: I didn't bet this game either. I just know I
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: won't be on Giants.
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: Ye.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: Sam Howell, who, by the way, you highlighted in one
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: of our YouTube exclusive Favorite Film Room sessions which we
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: will post another one tomorrow. You highly lighted Sam Howell
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: leading the league in passing yards right now?
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: Is he really?
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: That is insane. If they can get some offensive linemen,
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: this dude could be the guy, Like we don't know
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: and Stroud's number two, says Evan. That's crazy. If someone
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: had told you this back in August, holy shit. I
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: love football. Yeah, this year is everything I love about football.
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: It's just everyone's just crazy. It's just craziness.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: Las Vegas at Miami. Huge move.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Miami is a twelve point favorite right now. Huge mood
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: of the past twenty four hours. It was as low
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: as nine, now it's up to twelve. There was a
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: little bit of buyback on the Raiders yesterday and then
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: it popped back again today to twelve.
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: At that three six five. You know how, there have
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: been a couple of times this year where.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: We've leaned towards big favorites, which is completely outside of
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: our comfort zone. This feels like a spot where we
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: should be leaning towards Miami. This is when they beat
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: people up twelve and five against bad teams in the
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: start of the season. The Raiders should not have won
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night. I'm a in sort of Antonio Pears
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: and Aidan O'Connell like they should destroy the Raiders. We
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: like Miami at minus twelve. We're not afraid of this number.
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: Now.
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: I was gonna saying, Hi, it's me I'm the problem.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: It's me. I'm the one that bet this up. Like
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: when this number did below ten, I was all over Miami, like,
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: what what is this? This Raiders love? It's Miami at
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: home against the bad team. Me and Chad have already
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: talked about this. It's just I'm happy to fade Miami
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: in different spots against good teams. On the road, it's
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: all different. There is no doubt like this Miami team.
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: Maybe we won't cover this one, but I'm telling you,
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: over our lifespan and we keep taking TUA at home
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: against bad teams, it's gonna pay us out. And this
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: feels like one of those spots. So it's still below thirteen,
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: a key number, people, I have no problem with you
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: grabbing the twelve. Fuck should I make this? Simon says,
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: all right, go for it, call it. I just feel
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: I'm like feeling guilty just because of what happened last
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: week with the bank. I'm looking at Miami's injury reporting.
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: I'm not seeing Tyreek or Waddell. Yes, I know it's
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: early in the week, people, but I'm grab grab Miami
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: now that it's under thirteen. Simon says, Miami minus twelve
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: when Simon says, do it, we do what science says.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: Wow, we are going with a big, big favorite. Honest
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: to god, we've never got We barely gone with favorites,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: let alone two weeks in a row, let alone a favorite.
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: I know minus twelve it's such a key number.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: This is what I mean, though, Simon, I feel like
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: you and I are in a mind meld because all
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: these games are games that we agree on.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: This could only lead to disaster. Two is nine.
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: Those are our best weeks.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: Two is nine or oh, straight up seven and two
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: against the spread as a favorite of over four. It's
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: like the Cowboys lead from the front. They're playing at home.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: They tend to cover those games. They tend to cover
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: those big spreads, Arizona to Houston. This game when we
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: talk about it on Sunday night was five and a half.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: You were hoping it might get to six. It has
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: since gone down to four three and a half in
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: some places. To me, from what I'm seeing, and I
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: want you to sort of tell the narrative here. I've
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: seen the public come in big on the Cardinals, and
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: I want to know what you've seen that would make
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: this line move the way it has.
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: Well it's pros just like me. I think I think
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: almost all the professionals. Even last week, I felt like
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: only the pros were on the Cardinals on the over
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: and it's just because everyone felt like in the public
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: sphere kind of turned Kyler Murray into a joke, right,
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: like he became a punchline. And I don't know, maybe
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: it was because they thought it'd be rusty or just
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: whatever it was, but we saw I mean, everyone's seen
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: that overhead shot of Kyler scrambling for thirty yards. It's like,
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: it's what makes him so special. He's one of the
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: best athletes to ever play the game. Like the only
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: thing holding him back is his height. But in an
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: offense where you're gettinghim outside the pocket and you're running
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: these you know RPO plays with him, He's dynamic like
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: him and Connor in that backfield together looked so impressive
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: last week. And yeah, I know it's the Atlanta Falcons,
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: but we're really crowning Houston Texans here in week eleven,
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: Week twelve, Like it's it's too much love. So I'm
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: pissed the pros came in and they bet this down
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: so much. But yeah, grabbed the four grabbed the three
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: and a half, Like, if this is three and a
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: half or four four and a half in our contest,
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: it's a guarantee. It's a guarantee this will be in
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: And it's no slight against Houston. It's just at some
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: point CAJ has to come back down to earth. There's
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: a reason we've never seen anything like this, Like you
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: don't see rookies performed like this. And the last one
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: I can really think of is Dak, Like I remember
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: Dak with that Cowboys offense, was Zeke fl Like Zeke
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: and Dak were both in the conversation for MVP at
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: one point, like they were just that good that year,
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: the rookie season together. You know, it's crazy how good
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: this Houston team is. But you know Arizona's a different
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: team with Kyler, Like you just saw too after the game,
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: Like the belief of all the players, everybody just believes
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: in the sky. So maybe I'm stepping in it, right, Chad,
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: That's always the fear here where it's like I'm backing
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: an Arizona team that just had a huge emotional win.
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: But I could say the same exact thing about Houston.
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: It's like they just won a game that shouldn't have
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: won on the road. It's not just because boy dropped
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: that ball, right. I know a lot of people want
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: to throw it to like boy dropped the touchdown that
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: shouldn't have been what it was. CJ is that guy man.
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: CJ is the one making these drives, throwing the ball
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: coming down the field. So who knows if this will
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: end up in our round robin. Maybe it will, but
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: I am that scared to CJ. But I have to
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: take these points. Like go through CJ's history, he tends
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: to play really close games. So look, looking at this number,
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: it feels like this is the spot to take. And
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: you know, again, I feel I'm so lucky last week
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: that we dodged getting the Bengals out, and I feel
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: bad for everyone that listened to us and back. But
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: trust me, this week, please like you're getting a good
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: number here. You want to take the three and a
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: half the four while you still can. So.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: CJ.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: Shroud has won five games this season. Historically, Ohio State
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks not very good in the NFL. Here's a stat
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: that proves it. The five wins tied for the most
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: single season NFL wins for any Ohio State quarterback. Ever,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: sadly that includes Justin Fields, the only Ohio State quarterback
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: to get five wins. Oh my god, nineteen nineties icon
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Kent Graham, who I have a very special feeling for
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: because Kent Graham, who's older than I am, was an
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: All American quarterback from the suburbs of Chicago who was
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: the most highly recruited player in his class and then
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: went to Notre Dame and then transferred to Ohio State,
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: and everybody in the north shore of Chicago, in the
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: northern suburbs was like, oh my god, someone we actually
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: could see play a football field in high school is
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: considered the best high school football player in the country.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: He's the only other guy from Ohio State who won
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: five games in a season in the NFL.
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: That's an incredible stat. You just think of the thinking about
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: all these incredible athletes have come out of there. I mean,
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: we'rell prior all these guys. I can't believe none of
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: them ever got the five wins. Wow.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: Also, here's here's another stat to back up what you
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: love and why there's there's a little bit of inflation
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: on Houston, not just because of CJ teams coming off
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: of five hundred plus yards of offense playing at home
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: in their next game, seventy one ninety two against the
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: spread the.
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: Last twenty years like that. Only two teams.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Fit that bill this week, and we just talked about
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: one of them, and we just talked about fading one
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: of them, the Houston Texans. The other team the game
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: we're going to talk about next, Chicago Bears at the
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: Detroit Lions. The Bears are ten point underdogs. I love
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: this game. Yep, love this game. Love this game. I'm
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: debating between this game and one other game is my
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: exec decision. I raised this one on Sunday night when
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: it was nine.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: I like the Bears another game.
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: I told you to wait.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: I was just going to say that. I was going
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: to I like the Bears. You're like, hold your horses,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: don't be crazy. You thought, well, just wait.
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: The public loves the Lions, right.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, you're you were totally right.
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: It got to ten and a half on Monday. There's
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: a little bit of buy back. It settled to ten.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: It's still a ten. I bet this game We're going
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: to be one of our biggest luck matchups of the week.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: Oh really, another signal to bet the Bears. All those
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: division stats right, all the division stats that I've mentioned
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: it Bears repeating in this game the where are we
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: home teams in the division since twenty fifteen? So the
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Lions in the spot covering in forty seven percent, home
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: favorites in the divisions in twenty fifteen covering it forty
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: five percent. This is the spot, you bet the Bears
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: just saying it gotta do it.
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm right there with you. Love love the Bears
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: of this number. Another crazy stat from our guy, Evan
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: Golf has covered eleven straight games against NFC North teams.
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: Pretty pretty insane run by this Lions team right now.
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: In this division, we got.
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: Inflation on the Lions.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: We got Justin Fields potentially coming back. I did, I
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: may or may not, Simon, Maybe I did, maybe I didn't,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: and no one can judge me if I did.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: I may or may not.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Watched practice video from the Bears yesterday, may or may
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: not have seen Justin Fields taking snaps, dropping back and
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: then getting hit on his thumb with those little foam
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: tackle things.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: So clearly he's ready. I'm kidding.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: Don't take that as betting advice that he's gonna be playing,
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: but we like the Bears either way.
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and if it does, if it is not him,
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: I'm okay by not my position, Like I'm not gonna
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: have a ton of money on this one. Chat already said,
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: I already missed the ten and a half, like the
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: pros that got that. I gotta be feeling great. I'll
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: grab the ten where I can. But now my hope
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: is just that it does go back up at ten
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: and a half. But yeah, if it's no fields, probably
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: go up another three points, right, probably gets up to twelve,
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: maybe thirteen.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: So I would still take the Bears.
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: You would.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: It's the spot, This is yeah, this is what we're like.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: Look these division games, they're so unpredictable. There's so much familiarity,
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: there's so much more intention in the way the teams play.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Winning a game in the division, which for the Bears
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: won't matter, but for the Lions will. It's like winning
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: a game and a half, and so there's a lot
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: more time, a lot more opportunity to make mistakes. Everything
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: is amplified a little bit, like this is the spot
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: you take the underdog.
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah it's fair, it's fair, But yeah, I would just
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: that's just my voice to people, it's like grab the ten.
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: But yeah, the hope for us everyone is that this
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: gets back to ten and a half.
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: You know what, No, I can't do it yet. There
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: you go, I can't do it yet because I really
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: want to know about justin fields. Exec decision time. Pittsburgh
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Steelers plus four at the Cleveland Browns.
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: have your owners text to executive decision.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: We bet the Steelers when it was four and a half.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: We bet the Steelers last week against Green Bay. Did
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: we get lucky?
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: Maybe? Is this the way this team plays?
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Probably? But from a football point of view, one of
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: the reasons I liked Cleveland against Baltimore last week, and
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: why when there were all those injuries and stuff going on,
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: I never backed out of my position. I Cleveland plus five,
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: Cleveland plus six didn't change anything. Didn't bet on Baltimore
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: isn't because of their offense. It's because of their playmakers
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: on defense. They just have more of them on the
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: d line who can rush the passer, and that mattered
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: against Baltimore in the second half, especially Miles Garrett was dominant,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: and that advantage that the Browns have is neutralized this
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: week because the Steelers have three pass rushers grading out
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: as top twenty in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: That is the most in the NFL. It's more than
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: the Browns. To me, we've seen it every single week.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: As bad as Kenny Pickett is, you see someone on
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: the Steelers defensive line or in as one of their
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: linebackers making a big play as a pass rusher that
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: keeps them in the game. So we have all that,
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: plus we have the division stats, massive, massive game for
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: both teams.
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: Exect decision.
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: I gotta bet my Tom and catch it full o
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: A loss it home. YA couldn't ask for now, A
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: big strong drink. I'm gonna for a way We're gonna
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: sort because I gotta bet Mike tomline catches for.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: Did I overwhelm you?
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: I don't know to say it. I love you, Chatty
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: the best. I have to take Pittsburgh. I have no choice.
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: This is like everything we preach, we talk about all
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: the time. We'll be on Pittsburgh and they'll be There'll
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: be in our money line around Robin like this is
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: just this is how this stupid division works, and this
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: is what we do with this division, maybe we'll get
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: burned here, Right, if if Watson did find something that
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: second half and he is what he was his old self,
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: which is exactly what he looked like in that game.
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: I mean, he was making off balanced, one footed throws
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: across his body right on to the money across the field,
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: like he was really in his bag in that second half.
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: And if he found something there, this bets toast me
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: and me and Chat are dead on arrival, like if
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: they're still shootout. Pittsburgh is not built being a shootout, right.
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: They are the worst offensively challenged teams we've ever seen.
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: And I mean everyone's going to see the stat It's
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: like they've been outgained every week. You have you heard
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: this stat Chat every every week they've been outgained, Like
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: do these people don't understand that yards really are irrelevant.
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: Yards don't matter in football. You can get all the
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: yards in the world. If you can't score, it's all fugazy,
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: Like if you're kicking threes instead of again sevens, you lose.
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: And as much shit as you want to give the
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh in these games, they get the sevens when they
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: need it, and that's why they've been winning these really
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: close games. I mean the Ravens is a great example,
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: Like they just stayed in the game, right, They stayed
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: in it. They held the Ravens to a field goal.
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: I think it was ten to three at one point,
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: they get their own touchdown, they get their own two pointers,
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: then they get another takeaway, and then they get their
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: own touchdown again and it's like bam, you're up seventeen
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: to ten. That game's over. Right, So this Pittsburgh team,
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: they just win ugly and we can again we said it,
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: we could get burned here. But how do you if
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: you love this show and you love what we do,
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: you have to take this game with us. This is
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: just what this show is all about. We take an
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: ugly number here on a divisional dog and not shocking
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: anyone I'm looking at right now in the app the
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: money of the bets coming on the Browns. But what
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: the numbers come down. That's sharp movement, that's that's real
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: professional money. So wouldn't be shocked to see this get
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: down to three and a half. But uh yeah, you
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: got to be happy to grab the four like Chad's
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: making this exact decision. Grab the four.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: Now reverse line move that's what that one is called.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Here's another stat. Here's another stat from evan Division dogs
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: the last twenty years on the road. Ninety games over
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: five hundred Division Dogs on the road since twenty nineteen,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: fifty against the spread.
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: So love it.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Everything's lining up for us there, It's all going our way.
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: Simon Dallas at Carolina, Yes, please give me Carolina. Of
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: all the double dog, double digit dogs this week, this
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: one feels like most traditionally, like the one we would
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: play double digit dog at home, a team that is
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: massively inflated. The look aheadline was six and a half,
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: only one win this year.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: On the road. I think, did you did you give
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: me that stat?
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: We go through it.
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and like it's it's a huge pros Joe's game.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: The bets are on the Cowboys, money on Carolina, and I'm.
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: Looking at the one of the most public books out there,
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: the bets ninety the money right now in Dallas. Again,
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: I said, this is an easy week. Half the time,
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: I don't even need to do the work. I wish
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: I didn't spend three hours breaking down the freaking Panthers
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: film the tray to convince myself. I just could have
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: done nothing, And I should have known I was gonna
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: be on the pant but I needed to really see
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: it to believe it. Dallas this year week when they
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: were on the road against the Giants, we all remember
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: they beat them forty zhing. Everything went wrong for the
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: Giants in that game. The next road game they played
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: was at Arizona. They lost sixteen to twenty eight. Their
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: next road game after that was at the forty nine Ers,
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: they lost forty two to ten. After that, they're on
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: the road against the Chargers they won twenty to seventeen,
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: and then after that they're on the road against Philadelphia
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: they lost twenty eight to twenty three. So we've seen
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: Cowboys this year dominant, incredible defense. Everything clicks at home.
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: On the road, you can clearly say it's different and
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: they face some challenges. Now go look at the Panthers
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: how they play at home compared to on the road.
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: Much better team at home, Like they're clearly comfortable there,
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: their defense plays better. It should be shocked to knowing
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: right the public is going to hammer this number. I
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: can't believe I'm gonna say this. I'll throw a little
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: on the Panthers' money line, like this might end up
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: in our round robin. Of all the big dogs here,
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: this is the one I could see somehow pulling.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: Off the upset with you on the money line.
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: The cow was are the number three, number four team
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: in off NFC. But teams lay stinkers. We seen it
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: all the time. This is a bad spot. It's it's
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: smushing between two divisional games and it's on the road. Yeah,
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: Chad said, you got to hold your nose and throw
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: a little bet on that money line.
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: Just a dash, just a sprinkle, Simon.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: I had such a headache before this podcast began, rare,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: not one thousand percent enthusiasm bay for me, and you've
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: turned it around. You've made me happier. Just talking about
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: this has made my headache go away.
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: That's why I'm here.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: Chad Seattle at the Los Angeles Rams, another divisional game
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: we talked about on a Sunday night. We were wondering
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: who would play quarterback for the Rams. We now know
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: it's going to be Matthew Stafford. As soon as that
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: news hit, the line moved from two and a half
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: down to one. I don't have a huge read on
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: this game. I feel like the Rams are in good spots,
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: but Seattle, because Seattle's been underperforming.
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: I can't. I can't.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: I can't find the reporting. If you like to approach
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: this from one way and I approach from another way,
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: I can't find the reporting to make me feel strongly
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: one way or the other.
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: Now I'm right there with you, Like I want to
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: take I told people want to show like if it
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: was going to be Seattle, I thought you were getting
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: a good number if it wasn't going to be Stafford,
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: because if we didn't know who the hell of Rams
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: quarter wreck was going to be, and it totally went
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: the other way. And they are saying that it is
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: going to be Stafford and that's why this numbers move
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: so much, and I don't know what to deal with it.
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: Like I want to take the Rams too, but I
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: hate the number, Like it feels like the values kind
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: of shifted towards the Seahawks. But I don't really want
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: to be taking the Seahawks. So yeah, no play on
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: this one for me right now, dude.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: We're not connected by a string right now. We're connected
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: by like reinforced steel bars the New York Jets at
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills. This line is seven. Why does this
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: keep happening to us.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: You don't have to do it. We're not doing it.
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: I'm not doing it to the fans. They can't I
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: can't take it. I'm not doing it to them. Dude.
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: I know you didn't look in the script because it
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: says we have to bag Zach Wilson in this spot,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: and we can't do it. It's a perfect we can't
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: do it. It's a pros Joe's game. All the bets
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: are on the Bills, all the money is on the Jets,
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: but Zach Wilson is officially in that category of doesn't matter.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: The spot cannot execute for me.
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: I'll be on the Jets, but I'm not the zero
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: chances will be one of our five. I am so
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: bitter about everything in that game went with the Jets,
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: and I want to blend the coach. I feel like
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: he's a fucking idiot.
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: It's like you have a game that's all being dictated
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: by punting. That entire game was dictated by the punters.
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: Like that. The Raiders punter did his job. He kept
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: pinning them back, kept letting them get the ball back.
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: They'd run three plays with their running back and then
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: kick a field goal. And that's how they and the
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: Jets thing pissed me off so much as this. How
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: do you not have someone on the sideline telling you
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: the math where It's like, as soon as they got
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: into field goal range on that possession, they should have
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: kicked the field goal. Then they kick the ball back,
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: use their three timeouts, get the ball back at say midfield,
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: like they would have or at their own forty have
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: Zach Wilson once again get you in a field goal,
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: ran and kick another field on and you would have
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: won that game. And you know, they were like, you
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: know what, I'm gonna trust Zach Wilson to get us
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: a touchdown here. And that was their first mistake, was
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: believing a guy who hasn't scored a touchdown for them
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: in thirty quarters was gonna come in at the end
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: of the game and drive the field and get another touchdown.
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: So I'm with the fans. I am so bitter and
• 42:40
  Speaker 3: angry at this Jets team right now. I cannot make
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: it one of my five. But unfortunately Chad just said
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: it like I have to take the seven, I have
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: to bet the spot. I can't can't stand this fucking
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: team because they have so much talent on the defense,
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: such talent at the offensive weapons, and they just have
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: an absolutely dud at quarterback. Like again, they didn't go
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: get Dobbs. Dobbs went first seventh round pick. I mean,
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: just fire everyone, Like the owner has to be beside
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: himself watching this Vikings team, that offense. It's like this
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: guy was available for a seventh round pick, Like, what
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: the what are we doing?
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: What?
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: Because Zach Wilson drove the field against the Giants and
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: was able to get the luckiest ever overtime game I've
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: ever seen in my life. Like it's just crazy that
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: the Jets cupt convinced themselves to believe in Zach Wilson
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: and just a total waste of the season for this
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: Jets team and that you know, what can you do?
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: They got Rogers, he got injured, and you were stuck
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: again with your your just completely out of the league.
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: Second pick overall on Zach Wilson.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: This will be a really interesting game for the Bills,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: And I feel terrible for Matt Mitchell that he's living
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: through this agony. But this is the kind of spot
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: where in the past Josh Allen not just wins but
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: covers pretty easily, right, And so to me, this is
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: an indication of how how much do the Bills have
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: left in the tank for the year.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: Can they recover? Can they turn things around?
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: The AFC East is topsy turvy, like they are not
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: out of it by any means.
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: The Dolphins cannot be good teams. The Jets and the
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: Patriots are the Jets and the Patriots, So they don't
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: have to be the best team in the af CE
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: in the AFC with the record.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: They just got to win the division and get into
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: the playoffs.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: So and they can do that, but it starts with
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: this game, and it starts with showing how healthy they
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: are mentally. I love Game Time, Simon.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: I know you know that.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: It is the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: I love it for two reasons. One, they sponsor this show.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: Number two, I actually use Game Time to buy tickets.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: They've got amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets,
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: including pro and college football games. I'm actually going to
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: Game Time right now tonight in Brooklyn, New York. I
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: can get in to see the Brooklyn Nets NBA basketball
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: in an amazing facility for less than twenty five bucks
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: no matter where you live, download the game Time app,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: get out and have some fun this week. Go sweat
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: your bets live and in person. You can redeem code
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: Just download the app and her code favorites for twenty
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: dollars off. Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed.
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's visiting Denver last night. I was looking at lines
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: before the game began. Denver was a one and a
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: half point favorite, and I thought to myself, I think
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Denver can win the game tonight. I think this line
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: might go up to three. If they do, I should
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: bet it now. And then sometime between like thinking that
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: and turning on the game, I completely forgot until half halftime,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, oh shit, I didn't bet the gate,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: so it only went up to two.
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: I'm surprised by that.
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: Means the Vikings are the hottest team of football. Everyone
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: loves them, The public loves them. I know a lot
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: of professionals love them. You know they be getting fat
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: and rich off this team. It's it's crazy, but I
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: gotta do it. How do we not take Denver at
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: home in this spot.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: That's what I think.
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so like this was gonna be my assignment, says
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: about Chad just said it where It's like I thought
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: this numb would be higher, and I don't know if
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: it is going to get higher because I don't know,
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: Like I need to talk to see what the boys
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: are doing. But a couple of pros I talk to
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: right now, they like the Vikings and they like this number,
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: and they're like thinking themselves. His running style is going
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: to give a lot of problems, especially to teams like
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: Denver that aren't the best tackling teams right. I mean,
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: how many tackles they blow last night? That's just that's
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: just what Denver is. Uh. But man, like I'm looking
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: at three different books right now, and all the bets,
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: all all the tickets, all the money are on the Vikings.
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: A road dog, not not a good not a good spot.
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: Like if you're if you're, if you're a backer, and
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: you know these numbers road dogs that are highly publicly
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: bet let alone over eighty percent. That's that's dead on arrival.
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: That is a dead dog. So don't know what to
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: do this one. Like I'm betting Denver, I bet it
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: im I'm with you. Like I felt, I felt really good,
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: uh after last night. I feel like I should be
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: feeling even better. But I'm just a little nervous about it,
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: a little nervous about just because I'm like the books,
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: I don't know how to great dobs. I don't know
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: what he what his value is right now to the spread,
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: and I don't know what the fuck I'm watching. Like
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: even when I go back and watch the film, it's like,
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: you would never know. This dude is a journeyman that's
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: been on four teams in the last whatever it is,
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: eleven months or ten months. Like he looks he looks
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: like the guy, and it is crazy, but here we
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: go another staff from my guy Evan. He's still a
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: guy that's two and nine straight up as a starter,
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: And like I got to keep reminding myself that where
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: it's like he's just high right now and it's all clicking,
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: and he had two back to back wins, and it's like,
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: did he win that game against Atlanta or did Atlanta
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: really lose that game? Did he really dominate the Saints
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: or did the Saints just totally late? Eck? I mean
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: that was the first game the Saints defense. I believe
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: a game up over two hundred and fifty yards passing
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: to a starter in like over two seasons or something
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: crazy like that, like total letdown games. So I'm scared.
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: You can hear you can hear me trying to talk
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: myself into this. I'm clearly scared of this guy, Dobbs,
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: but I gotta believe in this number, and I eventually
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: he's gonna come back down to earth. So I'm gonna
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: go with Denver here in this home spot chat.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: What do you have it rated at right now?
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: Three? I'm right there with you, like I making three,
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: but I have no idea what to make the number
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: because I don't know what to do with Dobs Like I
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: could totally be underrated this guy, and there's probably should
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: be a pick. But what I have him grated at
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: right now, it's like I'm not over adjusting, I'm just
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: keeping him grated exactly what I have, which is like,
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: he's a bottom twenty, bottom twenty five quarterback in this league.
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: And it's like, would I take him over the Zach
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: Wilson's of the world, of course, no brainer. Would I
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: take him over Baker? No? Which is crazy to say.
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: I know people are like disagreeing with that, but that's
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: just how I have it rated right now. So I
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: don't know what to do with him. He's a total
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: in mystery man right now. But don't be shocked if
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: you see this as one of our fives come Sunday.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: By the way, I apologize, you said Baker. And before
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: we get to the final game, I realized I skipped
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: over you did the Niners in Bucks game because I
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: just in my screen I have one note on it.
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: The Niners are favored by eleven and a half. My
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: read was I have no read on this one yet,
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: I have nothing to say.
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I want to I want to take Bucks, but
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: I think Chad's right, Like, it's hard for me to
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: want to back this Buccaneers team after a home rent
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: home win, going on the road against a team that
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: they're fully healthy now, like they got all their dogs back.
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: Clearly Prety got over the concussions, right, he looked like
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: his old self. I don't Yeah, he had three touchdowns.
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: He just looked much like the pretty we were used
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: to seeing in the beginning of the season, which is like,
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: this guy is perfect for the Shanahan system. He's a
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: good thrower. He's very accurate, and he knows he's got Debo.
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: If he's got McCaffrey, he's got Kittle. Like these big
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: time weapons, don't overthink it. Just get get the ball
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: to which one of them is open on that play,
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: and they'll make the magic happen. So I want to
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: take Tampa, but I'm with Chad. I just can't get there.
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: So I'll probably of not playing this or maybe just
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: teasing the forty nine ers.
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: The going back to the Broncos for a second. Remember
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: one of our favorite bets from the beginning of the
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: season was the Broncos. I think over.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: Eight and a half wins.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think I said this on Green Dot
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: Daily two weeks ago. I'm not ripping that ticket up.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: They've got a very winnable schedule. Yeah, to go five
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: and three the rest of the year. Beating the Bills
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: was like one of the two games they have to win.
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: But the rest of the and the Chiefs like that.
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: That completely flips. Yes, their whole rating.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: The beating the Bills and the Chiefs, the rest of
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: the teams they're playing the way they're playing right now,
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: they're better than the teams they're playing through the rest
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: of the year. So I don't hate having the Broncos
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: at over eight and a half right now.
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: No, I mean, I honestly felt like the I guess
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: aiding the word, I was like, he's just thinking back
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: to our summer shows. It's like, what the fuck was
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: I think? And so thank god they're not making us
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: look like total idiots.
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: I know, I know what an incredible coaching job by
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: Sean Payton, by Bench Joseph, what they've done with Russell Wilson,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: what they've done with that defense.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: It's impressive, all right.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: Last game on the board, Monday Night Football, biggest game
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: of the week, Philadelphia Kansas City. Kansas City is a
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: three point favorite right now. We liked it on Sunday
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: at two and a half. We batted at two and
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: a half. I'm kind of surprised it went to three.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: I thought like the money was coming in on Philly.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised that this number moved.
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: And this might just not being one of our five
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: just because it's so split between all the professionals I
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: talked to, and before the show, I asked Evan, it
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: give us all the red trends just because everyone knows
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: all these trends about any Reid after a bye week.
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: So let's read it off. Jed any Reid last twenty
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: years on eight days rest, twenty six straight up, forty
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: seven thirty six and one ATS on twelve plus days
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: of rest, which is a bye Andy Reid is twenty
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: five and six straight up in the last twenty years.
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: And the Mahome stat which means Chad love Mahomes minus
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: three or less or a dog twenty six and one ATS,
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: so kills me. Kills me. So it's like, I want
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: to be on the Eagles. I feel like the Eagles
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: are a better team. The Chiefs have looked lost offensively,
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: and you know they might put together one or two
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: good quarters and then it doesn't look good the next ones.
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: You know, Travis Kelce is getting all this shit from
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: people because he went to go see his girlfriend, the
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: most famous musician in the world in Argentina on his
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: bye week. You're a loser if you care what Travis
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: Kelsey is doing on his bye week. A guy who's
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: got two super Bowl champions it's the top three all
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: time tight end is going to make out with his
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: smoking hot girlfriend who's singing to thousands of people. You
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: were a fucking thousands. Yeah, your way to loseer. I
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: want to be on the Eagles, but I can't. I
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: can't do it to you guys. I'm not going to
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: force it onto us. I don't know how this ends
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: up as one of our fives just because of Evan's trends.
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: Like Evan gives us these numbers and they break my
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: heart and they pissed me off, but they're right, like
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: those Saints numbers he gave us. How the fuck was
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: I on the Saints as a road favorite last week?
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: I'm kicking myself about it. So Evan gave me these stats.
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: A on Amy Reid, the twenty five and six straight
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: up is insane. But if this gets a three and
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: a half, things changed, Mahomes at three and a half
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: are higher. Yeah, thirty five and forty ets. So don't
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: don't kill us if we change on Sunday that this
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: gets up to three and a half in the contest.
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: But I'm telling you right now, at two and a half,
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: I cannot fault you at all. If you want to
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: put the Chiefs in at two and a half in
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: your contest.
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: Mahomes is thirty and one straight thirty and one straight
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: up in November December, in the last thirty one games. Wow,
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: thirty six and five straight up November December. In his
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: career forty eight and eight straight up November December.
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: Oh my god.
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: The guy does not freaking lose once we get into
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: the second half of the season, which is why he's
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: got so many freaking Super Bowls MVPs records, and why
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: it's going to go down as the greatest quarterback who's
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: ever played. And yet here we are putting our money
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: on the Eagles. We start off the show thinking, oh
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: my god, there's so many games we love, and right now,
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: if I look at it, there are six games I
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: can say we'll be debating on Thursday, Miami, Cards, Bears, Steelers, Carolina,
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: and then we've got Denver on the outside looking in.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: I'm going to put Philly at plus two and a half,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: just so we've got a little bit more to talk
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: about on Thursday, maybe Tennessee Jacksonville. Of that numbers move,
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: but it might be such an easy week that there's
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: only five games that we feel amazing about. Fast sometimes
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: there's eight or nine that we like and it's only Tuesday.
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: But yeah, like I just as soon as I saw
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: a lot of these numbers, that's all I mean. I
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: just loved these numbers. And the only other week I
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: loved for us we want And oh so I'm filing
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: pretty good here. I'm always fearful when it feels this easy, Chad,
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: like you said, don't say it, but it's like sometimes
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: it just the week's break right where it's just you
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: get so much overreaction, you just get so much line value.
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: The work tends to do it do itself for you.
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by
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