Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Revealing Wall Street's Best Trades for 2024 | Stock Market News 29 Dec 2023

Transcript

Revealing Wall Street's Best Trades for 2024 | Stock Market News 29 Dec 2023 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here, and welcome to this live stream.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I shall do something about the echo.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: We've got our hands on Wall Street's trade ideas of 2024.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I want to run you through them, which ones are good, which ones are bad, how we could set them up if we wanted to.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Do we want to, and, of course, after that I'll also take all of your questions.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: So, as always, ping them out there in the chat and let me share my screen with you.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Here we go.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Why am I in the corner, righty-ho?
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Before we do, I want to encourage you to make the most of 2024 and actually make it the year where you make your money work for you rather than you work for your money.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: How do you do that?
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Well, you go to FelixFrancilOxTashWebinar and join me for the next live trading training session.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Now here's a fun one first, and this is a chap who is called Harry Dent, and he predicts the doom and the gloom, more so than pretty much anybody out there, and he says 2024 will bring the biggest crash of our lifetime and expect the S&P to nosedive 86%.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: He's probably selling something I would imagine.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Now, is that a trade you want to follow?
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: And this is, as I say, this one's here for amusement.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Well, he did predict the biggest crash ever in June of what was that?
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: 2021.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: He predicted the crash of a lifetime in the middle of 2023.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: In 2017, he predicted the once in a lifetime market crash, and then in 2013, he said the Dow would crash to $3,000 in 2013.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: And so on.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: It's sort of a theme, and it seems to be working for him, but no, I don't think the S&P is going to crash cataclysmically next year.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: I just don't see it, because if something terrible does happen, you will get bailed out, and therefore it's very unlikely to happen, so I would discount this.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: This is not something we would want to trade.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I don't think it makes any sense in any way, shape or form.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Now, what he's probably pushing, though, is gold, because a lot of these doom and gloom guys push gold as a product that they make a commission out of or something like that, and, for once, I actually agree with them, and that also includes Bank of America, who is saying that gold's resilience in the face of rising US rates has been noteworthy, and they're saying that there is a gap between gold prices and other assets, and there is.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Normally, what happens is that, when interest rates move up, gold should decline, and it hasn't done it.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: It has sort of decoupled in a way.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Why has it done that?
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Well, it's a good question, but it's just a safety asset.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I think that's really what it's perceived as still.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: So now, as rates are going to come down again, that should actually be bullish for gold.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: So overall, gold seems to be in a pretty good position.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Political tensions, all that kind of stuff, middle East nastiness that could all be helpful.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: We actually put out a note and this is from our newsletter Trading FloatWhispers, which you can get your pause on here.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: It is phoenixfriendsorg slash sub and literally you can join 12,000 readers of the free newsletter and you get really actionable market maker insights.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: It's written by one of our head coaches who's a former market maker.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: He was a London Metal Exchange Floor Trader as well, so he knows a thing or two about gold.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: This is, of course, not financial advice, but I think it's useful to run you through it.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: And in October we put out a note to subscribers saying gold is up about 20 bucks to $1852.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: We expect lots of support levels.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: I'd expect to go trade well in the weeks ahead.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I can't go bearish here and Bank of America is now saying they expect $2,400 on gold, and I think that's very possible.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: I think it's very possible.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I agree with Elliot here who's writing this.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: I think that is a possibility.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Now how would we trade it when we put this out literally full walkthrough in the newsletter and here is the full email and it's full glory.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: But I'll run you through the key thing here of this trade.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: The easiest thing to do, in my view, is to buy the gold minus ETF, which is ticker symbol GDX, gold, delta X and normally ETFs are not ideal for commodities.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: It's cheaper to buy the commodity.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: But if you look at the chart difference between actual gold, which is this pair, and the ETF, you can see that there is a very significant gap that has appeared between the two, which is unusual because normally they trade together like a pair of lovers floating down the Nile or something like that.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: It therefore would seem that there is actually possibly more upside in buying the ETF than buying gold.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: If you look back historically, the last two times when we traded at $2,080, gdx is usually above $40.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: It was even at $70 before.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Right now it's trading at about $32, I think, or something like that $32 ETF.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: There is potentially and arguably 100% upside on the GDX gold ETF.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: I think that's something to look into.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying check out your money added.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying do this because I'm talking about it, but I think it's an interesting one.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Check that out Now.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: The next idea from Wall Street's great and illustrious is not Harry Dent, no, it's this Tesla and Alliance Bernstein you're a massive asset manager are saying short Tesla and they basically have a Tesla share price target of $150, which is fairly staggering and I'm sorry I'm still sucking on things because my throat is still a little funny, so bear with me.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: But if you look at a Tesla stock chart here and I'm using options watchio, which is my favorite tool as we build, it makes it much, much easier to visualize trades that's a pretty significant drop we're expecting here for Tesla.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Well, they are $110 drop.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Do I think that's going to happen?
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I think it's a bit extreme.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: I think Tesla might come down a bit, but $150, which would be April 2023 lows, I don't really see it.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they've got margin issues, competition and EVs and drop of values of EVs after purchase and all that kind of stuff, but I think fundamentally, tesla is still going to be the winner in just the US car market generally.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: So I don't really see it.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: I think what I would be tempted to do would be something like this, and that is, go up to, say, $300.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So we go into February it gives us a second to load and say, okay, if we, this $300 was the July high.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: So I'm basically what I'm saying is we would make money If Tesla goes up to $300, or if Tesla goes down to any number.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: We make money in both directions.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: For me that's more sort of reasonable trade that would have a 79% probability of making us money.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: We could make a 19% return.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: I think that that sort of set up Not saying you have to do this one obviously in any way, shape or form but that's more the sort of thing I would look at.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't ever really short a stock unless I knew something on the inside, which I don't, because that would be illegal.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: So I think that's the better set up, because if you don't have this upside protection here, if you're just saying stock's got to go down, that's 50-50.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: 50-50 basically sucks.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, I still have a bit too much talking today, I'm afraid.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: All right, so I think that's the better way to play Alliance Bernstein's Duhmisch prediction here on Tesla.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Now the second one is UBS says sell Nvidia and they are saying they think Nvidia could fall 25%.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Well, the S&P could fall 25% and they think, excuse me, nvidia could drop 20-30% in the first half of the year.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: I think again, look up the Nvidia stock chart and you get a bit of a feel for how it's trading.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: And people always think that stock charts are a mystery.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: It actually isn't.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: It's actually largely common sense.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: I apologize for my coughing here and I thank you for all the kind comments here.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: I am actually feeling much better today.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Just a throat is still a little bit lagging behind on everything else.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: But look at Nvidia and it's not rocket science to see what's going on here.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: You've had a top here at around 500, you had a top, another top and around November, another one in August, september, around 500.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: So really it's not rocket science to say that breaking through that 500-510 line is somewhat challenging.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: I think it's very possible, but it's still somewhat challenging and we've never been higher.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: So we're only $4 away from $500.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: I think that's too close to say let's go short or let's set up a trade below $500.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: What I would do instead if I wanted to be bearish on this again, maybe go out into February and just go a lot above the market, because we have to find some volume somewhere, which on a moment I'm not finding.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Hmm, no volume.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Or March, it's a bit far out, but let's see.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Bear with me with my search to see if we can find a half-decent trade opportunity.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: What about January?
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Okay, 20, that's okay.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, a little light, a little light.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: What am I looking for here?
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Okay, I should explain.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: You see these little red lines here on my screen.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: That's where the put options are, and I'm trying to set up a trade with put options.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: So I could probably the best I could do is this yeah, that would just about work, which is a trade that sits at $513.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Basically, nvidia could go up $19 or it can go down to zero and we make money in both directions.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: That is the trade.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Is it brilliant?
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: No, I don't think so.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: It was a 66% chance of making us money.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: It's a little too tight, so I just wouldn't touch it.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Honestly, I just wouldn't really go with this one.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: I think UBS a little bit of their rocker.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Generally speaking, they've sacked 60,000 people.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Maybe they sacked everybody who could look at stock charts.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: It's just not the place to call it.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: You're just too close to your peak and therefore your room for error is just too limited.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't really go with this.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Hit the whiskey.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: It makes a sore throat better, says Danzo.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Danzo, you seem to think that alcohol seems to help with most things.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: That's an interesting take on life, nothing against it.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: But I haven't really drank any alcohol in them, probably two or three years, which is weird because I used to drink quite a lot.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I feel much better this way.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: So yeah, that's the Nvidia short idea which I don't really want to look at.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: I think gold is probably the best one out of this lot.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: But we walk you through all of them and all of the trades.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: We put a trade on Nvidia in the email as well in the newsletter.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: So you sign up for that FelixFrancidOxlash sub, a trade where you could maximum lose $200, and if you're right, you make $1,800 US.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: So very nice, risk reward play Possible, I think.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Possible play, but it's one of those lottery ticket type things which I'm not a huge but I don't want to play the lottery generally speaking.