Latest / The SME Stream / The Country 16/12/25: Ray Smith talks to Jamie Mackay

Transcript

The Country 16/12/25: Ray Smith talks to Jamie Mackay · The SME Stream

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It is a day for acronyms today on the country.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: As we kick off the show very shortly, in fact,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: at one pm, we will have HIFU, which is the
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: half yearly economic financial Update. Earlier this morning we had
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: soapy from MPI the situation and outlook for primary industries.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: The Director General of MPI is Ray Smith, and Ray,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: you keep smashing it out of the park in the
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: primary sector. Well done.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: Well, what a fabulous result to a forecast to close
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: the year out three percent growth forecast on top of
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: thirteen percent last year for the primary sector, and they
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: will drive us up to sixty two billion dollars and
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: export innings and we expect that to continue, driven largely,
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Jamie Boy by volume lifts for dairy, horticulture and forestry
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: and in price increases the course for our important red
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: meat sector. And what a tremendous year they have here.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Well, red meat's been the star of the stable. Now
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: let's just go through some of these numbers. We'll start
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: with the biggest one dairy export revenue lifting one percent
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: to twenty seven point four billion. That's a hell of
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: a lot of money. But as we know, the price
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: globally of milk is going down, So is that going
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: to put a dampner on your predictions for next year?
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: No, I mean you've got to remember that dairy prices
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: have been sort of excellent record levels. I mean, if
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: you're paying out milk prices in around the ten dollar mark,
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: I mean that's phenomenally high. So anything in that nine
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: dollar range is a tremendous price payer on dairy And
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: just think about it like this. We've had record milk
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: solid production in the June to September period. It's up
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: about three point eight percent on last year. And you know,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: part of that has been, you know, farmers having the
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: confidence to bring in more feeds, so there's been a
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: lot of subplementary fee to lift production. While prices are
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: good and we know that past your growth out through
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: through the summer period is likely to be good with
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: these along Ninua, with the patterns affecting the North Island.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: So look, Newdale is going to continue to produce well,
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: we'll probably produce more milk solids than we've ever produced
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: per car and there's a real demand for protein. So yes,
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: it's come off. It's very very high peaks, but stabilizing.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: It's still a good news. Story meat and wallock sports.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Let's be honest here, it's mainly meet lifting seven percent,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: as we said, Star of the Stable to thirteen point
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: two billion dollars. Do you know what one of the
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: standout numbers for me was Ray Smith Direct the general
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: of MPI. Horticulture are clear third now lifting five percent
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: to nine point two billion. Now it wasn't that long
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: ago that horticulture and forestry were neck and.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Neck, absolutely, and now holder culture is chasing that red
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: meat sector, isn't it? And apples and pairs over one
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: point two billion is at December. Kivy fruit nine percent growth,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, kiv fruit story is just phenomenal. In fact,
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: if you look back over the decades, kivy fruit sort
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: of never material realized until in the last couple of decades.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: And you know, I think they've doubled the volume of
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: trays of red tobey fruit this year, which is very
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: popular in the Asian markets. And of course, alchid returns
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: AULTI gate returns for for autidice are just just at
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: phenomenally high levels. So avocados will go down a little bit.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: But cherries we're expecting a really good return on cherries
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: this year. Because it plays into slightly later Chinese New Year,
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: just in time for our harvest.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Forestry export revenue has lifted just two percent to six
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: point three billion, still very very important, our fourth biggest
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: export sector, but it would be fair to say it's
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: had its challenges in the past two or three years.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's been quite a bit of consolidation, hasn't
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: there in some closedowns as well in the in the
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: forestry sector. But look, we're still, you know, the biggest
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: supplier of logs into the China market where we have
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: we have big market share, and sorn timber prices are
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: very good to the United States, even across the top
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: of those tariffs that were imposed. So the margins on
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: sort of our clearwood products that go into the United
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: States and into Australia are good. So look, I think
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: I think we'll see that forestry city to slowly pull
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: its way back through. And of course construction demand has
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: been low, which is also suppressed that the value of
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: our product.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Another couple of numbers to throw out there from me,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: These I've cherry picked these, no pun intended. There are
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Ray Smith one and every seven people work in food
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: and fiber and food and fiber now is responsible for
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of our export goods earnings. Absolutely fantastic. Now,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I can't let you go on the show this week,
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Ray Smith without asking you without any preparation at all. Again,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: if to think on your feet here, and I know
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: you do that for a living. Who is your twenty
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: twenty five AG Person of the Year.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: Well, Jamie, that gosh, every farmer in New Zealand yep
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: up for that price in my estimation. But if I
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: was picking a few key people, I'd say you can't
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: go past the chip ex sector of Frontier Miles har
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: Or what an outstanding job he has done and the
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: time he's been in that job in a big turnaround
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: this year. But can I also mention a couple of
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: other people I think phenomenal Pete Connolly, who is chief
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Executive ENSCO and Zealand. They have You'll know that we've
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: just come out of this in bogus thing where we've
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: declared that we're on the home streetch and we're almost
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: three of this. Well, that big feed lord at ENSCO,
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: all the controls have come off that they've been tremendous
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: in supporting the program and making sure that we got
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: information out of the beef sector. We just want to
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: want to thank them for that and what they've done
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: for that whole beef sector and doing that, and of
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: course it can't go past my trail blazing, globe trotting
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: Minister Tom McLay who's he's been out of the country
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: more than he's been in it, trying to do his
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: best to get a trade deal for New Zealand.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Yep Okay, Ray Smith, thank you very much for your
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: time throughout twenty twenty five and well done to you
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: guys at MPI. I think we're going to very shortly
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: officially kick m Bovis for touch for good. Have a
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: great break. We'll catch you back next year. Thanks.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: Thanks Jamie, have a great Christmas.