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NFL Week 7 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: is our week seven Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Melman,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: off of a two and three week in our contest.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Thank you Mac Jones for a very predictable safety and
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: doing the one thing we knew you shouldn't do. Everybody
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: knew you shouldn't do at the end of that Raiders game.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: But hey, we did tell people to go all in
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: on the Browns and the Jets. So on this show
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: we exercise irrational optimism. We look at the bright side.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: We move on to week eight. We recorded our Sunday
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: episode before Sunday Night Football, and as we said on
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: the show, a lot of lines we liked have all
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: already moved, which is why you need to listen to
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: the Sunday show if you want to get the best
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: of the number. Today we will get to our sign
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: and says in our exec Decision. Thursday, we will do
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: sharp calls, big balls, and foxhol this episode, we'll look
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: at the entire board. As we begin narrowing down the
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: five picks, we'll enter in the Favorites Podcast one hundred
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest still open for
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: sign up, by the way, still free to play. Still
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: awarding weekly and season long cash prizes at Favorites dot
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com. Let's bring in my co host, my bff,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter etro So.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: I am in, Hello, how Chad?
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: The Chargers game that was tough to watch last night,
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: just excruciating. We were on the Chargers plus two and
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: a half. But we're moving on practicing irrational optimism. That's
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: what I'm calling it. That's what my wife sort of
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: says about me without saying it about me. Tyreek Hill
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: right now, who we got at nine to one to
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: lead the league in receiving on pace for twenty two
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: hundred yards, receiving more than two hundred yards higher than
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: the NFL record. Kudos to you, Simon. I want to
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: give you your flowers because I remember you saying Tyreek
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Hill said he wants two thousand yards. That to me
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: is a sign we should take him at nine to
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: one as a flyer. We did it, well done.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's just the only fear is health You're right,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: he's on like a crazy historical pace that mine the offense.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, Tua's leading the league in passing yards, easily
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: leading the league in receiving. There just doesn't get much
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: more high power than that offense does. Right now.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Well, look, it's one of the biggest games of the week.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: They're playing the Philadelphia Eagles. We're going to get to that,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: yeah and more as we break down the board. It's
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: one of the more interesting games to handicap as a
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: sixty five. Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. That's
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: why you get more boosts with them than with anyone else.
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  Speaker 1: or Virginia or eighteen or older in Kentucky gambling problem
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: called one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions and restrictions apply. Here's
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: an update. Week six in the contest, we had fifty entries,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: finished five, and oh we had a two way tie
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: for first place because they nailed the tiebreaker total Monday
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Night football rushing yards, which was one hundred and forty nine.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Congrats to our winners, Socora and Cosone. This week's Producer's
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Cup award goes to AMC Go two thirds for finishing
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: dead fucking last and the Week six contests going zero
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: to five and missing the tiebreaker by four hundred and
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: fifty hours at AMC. Please email producer Matt Mitchell at
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: podcasts at Actionnetwork dot com to claim you're not cash prize.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Thanks for playing all right. Week seven in our contest
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: is now live. Good luck everybody. Week seven, here we
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: go Jacksonville at New Orleans. Dude, simon this line. I
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: know we can't put it in the contest, but has
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: just fucking steamed like a train from the eighteen sixties
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: racing across the country. It opened at New Orleans plus
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: one and a half. What do we say on Sunday
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Night seven.
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: You gotta grab it.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: We grabbed it at one and a half while we
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: were talking on the show, it started moving. It's moved
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: four and a half points. I want to get your
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: take on what you're hearing, even in the first you know,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: forty eight sixty four hours since we had the show.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: I do want to say, like to me, I felt
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: like this would be a luck rankings game on both sides.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: The Saints, who we had against the Texans. I went
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: into the numbers. They had one hundred and twenty more yards,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: eighteen more plays, five and a half yards per play
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: versus five for the Texans, more time and position possession,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: but they had more turnovers, more penalties, and missed two
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: field goals. The Jags, meanwhile, had only two hundred and
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: thirty three yards against the Colts, about one hundred and
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: twenty yards last and three point eight yards per play.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Colts had like something like four turnovers in the game.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: So we were on it from the beginning.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, an easy spot too, where it's a short week.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: The Jaguars had won three in a row at this point, right,
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: they won the two London games. I won this last
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: game at home and you're just waiting for thent of
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: luckdown spot and got a little luckier that I got
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: a good number. It might be that Trevor Lawrence could
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: miss this game now, and that's why we've seen this
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: number move so much. So I don't hate it still
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: if you want to grab it now, because it could
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: move even more if it is him out where it's
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: a short week, you have a backup QB plane, so
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: that means this backup QB might have one day of
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: walkthroughs before they head to New Orleans. Like it's just
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: a really bad spot to have to play your backup.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: So yeah, like love the Saints. I fee was gonna
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: be Trevor Lawrence. This was a good spot for their defense.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: Now yeah, it's I love it even more. So it's
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: too bad we can't play in the contest if Trevor
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: Lawrence is out. You know, stay what you want about
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: the Saints team. At the end of the day, it's
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: not the defense's fault. They haven't winning. It's really on
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: Derek Carr. So I thought, mean, you were a really
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: good number on this because the public was gonna come
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: in so heavulous Jaguars team got lucky, Like Chad said,
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: we got ahead of it. The line kept moving. I
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: kept betting it, and then when I saw I think
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: it got up to minus two. So that would have
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: been like three am Hawaii time, which I guess is
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. And that's when I saw some news
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: trickle out that Okay, Lawrence might miss this game, like
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: Schefter put another tweet out. Then you saw go right
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: the minus three. So the books they don't know what's
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: gonna happen yet. No one really has any info yet.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: That's so they just have that minus three up there
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: right now because that's a nice, nice in between hedge.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: If he is out, maybe this'll go up to minus
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: four minus four and a half. But I think the
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: books already kind of shown us what they what they
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: think's gonna happen. They don't think Trevor's gonna play.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: See, this is the difference between you and me, right
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: is I'm gonna bet this on Sunday night at plus
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: one and a half after the show we record it,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to bed. I'm gonna get up on
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Monday morning, right, I'm going to get up, I'm going
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: to exercise, I'm gonna have an espresso. I'm gonna have
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: a nine am call with our overlords in Copenhagen. I'm
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: gonna have a nine thirty call with our are the
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: guys who run our commercial operations meeting. They're the ones
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: who make all the money, and you know, manage our
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: relationship with our wonderful sponsors at bet three, six five.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Then I gotta have a ten o'clock call with Matt Mitchell.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Then I gotta have a ten to thirty call with
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: another guy. Then I got an eleven o'clock senior staff call,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, this game's at three and
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: I didn't get to get any more money down on
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: this game. This is ridiculous. I'm quitting all. I'm going
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: full time.
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: You Kenja, if you just listen to my advice I
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: told people, was it two weeks ago, quit your day job.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: Just bet Primetime unders. I think Primetime unders, Evan, were
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: they three know? This week? Primetime unders just a cash
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: cash attic. I can't get over how good these Primetime
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: unders are. Fourteen and six in the season. Thank you, Evan.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just ridiculous. These are It's crazy. It's almost
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: like part of me wants to not bet them because
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I'm afraid I'm gonna I've already missed the trend too much,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: even though I've been betting unders.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: You know, no, but you're you're right. It's nothing gonna
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: come back this season. But sixty percent, I think I'm
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: at a stat since like two thousand and five or
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: two thousand and three. It's some crazy like that, So
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: prime prime time unders chatted. They've been very profitable.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get to some games. We're actually going
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: to be able to bet Cleveland and Indy. Of course,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: the instinct here has to be betting Indy. Right. Terrible
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: performance for Minshew against a not very good Jags defense.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Other Worldly performance by the Browns against what had been
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: a world class offense. They got perfect conditions, They had
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: no expectations because they had a backup QB. They were
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: at home in bad weather, with the best defense in
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: the NFL, the opponent coming off a dominating win. Are
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: we overvaluing the Browns more than we undervalue the Colts
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: in this spot?
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: It's hard to say, just because Minshew looks so bad.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: So the first time he looked like Minshew this season,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean?
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he looked horrible, So I do I do want
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: to just wait on this number. I'm hoping we get
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: three because I think the public will think like us,
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: where it's like it don't matter if it's Pj's quarterback.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: If Pj's the quarterback, it feels like they can scheme
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: it up where he doesn't have to do much. But
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: how do you not love the colts here, Like this
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: is such a great spot to back then give us
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: a three so the books. If they don't get to three,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: that's even more of a reason probably to come in
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: on this Colt steam. But I'll just wait. It's just
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: dead number right now. Sitting on it, two, two and
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: a half three, I start thinking colts here, But yeah,
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: this is a weird number, and I see the total
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: is thirty nine, which I was shocked at. I was
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: shocked it was so high. Just just feels like both
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: these defenses are way better than pulper reception right now.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: So yeah, chatter game. I would love to come in
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: on right now, but we'll just wait. Hopefully get a
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: better number by the time we come back on Thursday.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: All right, what do we talk about when we talk
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: about Mac Jones? I feel like that's you know, in
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: sort of every post modern piece of literature or film.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: When you want to have a serious conversation, you say
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: what we talk about when we talk about and then
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: it's always our kids, our parents, you know, terrorism, whatever.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Here is what we talk about when we talk about
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: mac Jones. In any other world, at any other time,
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: we might be comfortable betting New England. It's one hundred
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: percent the right side, as they were the last week
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: against Las Vegas. Right, they have the they have the
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: feel of those Terrible Jags teams that we used to
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: bet every single week. The right side is always going
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: to be New England because it's always going to be
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: shaded towards their opponent. But I do believe mac Jones
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: might be a system breaker. Whatever the president, whatever, Evan
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: can tell us, whatever the expectation with the art. With
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: regard to the number, he is pig pen. He has
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: a cloud. He's it's like there's something you wrote it
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: the other day. He's got an un you said it
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: the other day, an unlucky horseshoe up his ass.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, whatever it is, Evan, it's up to now. It's
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: own eleven as a dog or own twelve as a dog.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: His last twelve games or eleven games is an underdog,
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: so of course you're nailed it. It's like we're getting
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: you're literally getting to my modeor getting three points of
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: value here, like I got this number at six, it's nine. Check,
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: you're exactly right, Like this is this is where supposed
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: to take them. But I don't know. Man, Yeah, I'm
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: gonna say I I don't. I just don't. I just
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: don't know if I can do it. And maybe by Thursday,
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: this Sunday will be further enough away where I can
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: maybe convince you had to do it. But as we're
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: sitting here right now, I don't got it in me,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: and I think she has the same boat as me,
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: where it's like I need more than just there being
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: value or trends towards this guy. I needed to see something,
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: and I wish I could say I saw something in
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: that game, but it was really more about the Raiders
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: being so bad that got that Newland team back in
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: that game where the Bills they were just embarrassed on
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: Sunday night. They should have lost that game, most likely
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: on Sunday night. So how do you not believe in
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: the Bills in a bounce back spot here. But this
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: feels just like the forty nine ers last week, Like
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: the whole everyone in the world's going to come in
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: on this Bills team, and me and Chad are gonna
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: be like three or four people left that were coming
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: on the Patriots. So I haven't touched this game yet.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: I know a really smart group came in on the
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: Patriots at nine and a half and I said, good
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: for you guys. Yeah, your genius is like every week
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: these people are going to make these same bets. So
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: I just can't get there, as we say here right now.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: But I can tell you I know a lot of
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: smart guys taking this number, and it's been bet down
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: in a lot of books from nine and a half
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: ten down to eight and a half nine. So just
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: another pros versus show's game. But it's just hard for
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: me to get there. I have no trust in this
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: New England team.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Nine for the Patriots, largest home dog for New England
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: since Tom Brady's first start in two thousand and one,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: twenty two years since the Patriots were this big of
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: an underdog at home. I'm old enough to remember before
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: we came on, you guys were like, hey, that's Susanne Summer.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: She's from your time, right, She's the one who just died.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: I'm old enough to remember when the Patriots were such
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: a laughing stock of the NFL, when their owner owned
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: like some razor company and was just considered a joke,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: and when Foxborough going to Foxborough was like going to
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: a high school stadium with aluminum benches, not even seats,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: like I once got food poison, and eating a hot
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: dog in the Foxborough press box like it was an ugly,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: ugly place. And this has the feel of that right now,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: which means, oh god, we cannot bet on Mac Jones
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: the race.
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: So now they are a bunch of losers owned by
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: a guy who owns owns Mac and Cheese. So that's
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: how life is.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: The Raiders visiting Chicago. Justin Field dislocated thumb. The Raiders
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: are plus three here. I love the Bears, I mean
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: the Raiders and minus three. I apologize. I love the Bears.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: Last week at plus three and a half, the game
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: played to expectations like it was low scoring, it was
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: ugly bad teams. The difference was justin Field's going out
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: and the backup fumbling the ball, which led to each
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: touchdown for the for the Vikings. That was the difference
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: in the game. I know, And it's a Pros Joe's
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: game right now. The Pros are on the Bears. The
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Joe's are on the Raiders, even with Justin Fields out.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: I kind of like the Bears here.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Like last week I was on Minnesota. I got
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: talked off of it by some really smart guys who
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: love the Bears and so happy whatever happened Thursday. I
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: didn't let us put or like, because I knew I
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: was gonna like the three and a half and we
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: somehow didn't have them in our contest, Thank god, because
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: I would have probably hated them this week and I
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: bet them. But I've been betting this number whatever since
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: our show Sunday night, been taking the threes, three and
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: a half, whatever I could get on this Bears team,
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: don't care who your quarterback is, just playing the spot fading.
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: This Raiders team, I don't think is that good and
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: it's probably gonna hurt, Like this week sucks, like there's
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: so many bad quarterbacks this week. But if you're telling me,
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: Jimmy g I had to go to the hospital and
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: Hoyer and now is a favorite of minus three on
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: the road. I get it, the Bears are horrible, They're
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: a really bad team, But how do I not play
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: the three here? Like it's just the Raiders are bad too,
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: Like there's just two really bad teams. I'll take the
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: dog here. It feels like that Denver spot where it's like,
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: let's just play the number. It gets the three and
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: a half. You gotta be on the Bears here. So yeah,
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: ugly week this week, just some terrible quarterbacks are going
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: to be playing and this is one of the games.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if this will make our final five,
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: but I'm on the three. I'm on the three and
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: a half. If you can get to three and a half,
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: that's what I would prefer, obviously to the three. But yeah,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: not shocking the publicle coming on this. They hate the Bears.
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: The Bears are terrible. They're not covering for anybody. Everyone's
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: totally off of them. It's usually me and Chat coming
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: on the other side.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: That's what we do. We bet up, yeah, and normally
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: it works. Look, we love the Jets, we love the Browns.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Didn't work with some other game, it didn't work.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, we're we're six weeks in, we're sixty percent
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: chat eighteen and twelve. I believe, so, I mean, I'll
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: take it. It works obviously, people, It's ugly but it works.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: It's ugly, but it works all right. Washington at the
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: New York Giants. So this is a game. The Giants
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: are two point underdogs, I believe right now with that
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: three six five?
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: Uh is that line?
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah? It's such a note. There's a few no man's
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: land lines here. No, I feel like we kind of
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: whiffed on Washington last week. You love them against Atlanta,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: we sort of talked about putting them in the contest
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: and then we didn't, and then we talked about it
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: again on Sunday and we didn't, and I don't know
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: what happened. Like we liked the games, we liked and so,
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: but Atlanta outgained Washington by more than two hundred yards,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: double them up on first downs. Meanwhile, the Giants found
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: the perfect spot and kind of outplayed Buffalo. So unless
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: you see something or are hearing something, this game is
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: kind of a pass for me. It's a coming down
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: spot for both teams.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: I honestly want to take the Giants. I feel like
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: you just talked about were Washington. They're kind of inflated
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: right now by people that like they just they won
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: by what was eight points against Atlanta and they had
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: a ton of turnovers. People are gonna be convinced that
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: this Washington team's defense is turned a corner. But I
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: like it from another way, like you just said, like
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: they gave up a ton of yards. They just got
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: really lucky with the turnovers. And you know, say what
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: you want about Taylor, really he really wasn't putting them
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: in bad positions against the Bills defense. Like he wasn't
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: really throwing up fifty to fifty balls and taking stupid risk.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: He's a veteran quarterback. He like will make the right
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: read usually, you know, looking at this game, I'm with you, chat,
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: I don't really have an opinion here, but just a
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: weird number. Why is this not three? Like this feels
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: like this should be like the Bears Bears game, where
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: it's like just put a three up there and let
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: let them mark it the side. It's weirdly they hung
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: I think a one and a half too, and it's
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: gone up to two two and a half now back
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: down to two, and it's just sitting at too. So
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: clearly the pros like the Giants. Here of the public
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: likes Washington. But I'm with Chad, no real opinion yet
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: on this one.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: On Sunday night, I pulled back from betting the Giants,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: and I regret it because I'm not as much of
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: a hay of Tyrod Taylor as other people. Whenever he's played.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: He's a competent quarterback, right It's competent to any other backup.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: And so in my mind, if I'm willing to play
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: the Browns with PJ Walker, like I'm able to play
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: PJ Walker on the Browns, why wouldn't I be willing
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: to play a Tyrod Taylor, who I think is probably
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: better and more experienced.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: So it's people.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: It's going to be an ugly, ugly week, all right.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: So the next game right now, we still owe people,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: as Simon says, we still owe people an exec decision.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: We haven't gotten there yet. The Atlanta Falcons, who I
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: just mentioned from the Washington game, are visiting the Temp
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Bay Buccaneers, who we add a plus three and a
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: half against the juggernaut Detroit Lions. We were on the
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: wrong side of that one box are minus two and
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: a half true story. I was putting the script together
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: for today, and as I typed in this matchup, for
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: some reason, like I immediately had a feeling like that
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: you get start patting yourself down because you think you
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: lost your phone or your keys, like you can't find something.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: It was total fear because I thought, for a second
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: I had already bet Tampa minus two and a half,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: Like in my head, I remember making a bet on
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: somebody at minus two and a half, and then I
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: realized it was Baltimore. But I basically had to find
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: my notebook to confirm I hadn't bet Tampa Bay because
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: like I didn't want to bet this game at all.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: The Falcons should have beaten Washington, Like the number of
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: times the camera pan to Arthur Smith and he was
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: just he was like putting his head in his hands.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: The people on YouTube can see good I'm doing right now,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: and like like he was watching his kids do the
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: same mistake over and over and was disgusted by it.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: After Desmond Ridder threw picks to end Falcons chances was astonishing.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: I think he did that more than they had fewer
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: first times than Arthur Smith looking disgusted. The defense did
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: his job. Like in this game, it was just a
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: bad play by by Desmond Ridder. Here's the problem. It's
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: a division game of less than a field goal. Overall
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: dogs in division games are sixty games above five hundred
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: the last decade, fading division home teams. Division home teams
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: are out winning, covering it just a forty six percent clip,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: including thirteen and fifteen this year when the division team,
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: when the home team in the division is a favorite,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: forty four point seven percent against the spread. Everything is
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: telling us, from last week's performances to the trends. You
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: take the Atlanta.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: Falcons, Yeah, I think I think you thought you might
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: have better because I was like thinking about betting this
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: Sunday night on the Bucks. I was like, all right,
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: getting them under a field goal against this this Atlanta team.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: But you're right. It's like I'm probably I'm probably selling
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: too low here on this Atlanta team, and I'm still
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: probably too high in this Bucks team. Like this number
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: is what it should be. It feels like it's right,
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: So I guess the value is on Atlanta here. But
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: I'm with you, like this is a this is a
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: tough one, so maybe I'll have a better read on
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: him by Thursday. But if you say it right now,
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: it's like, ugh, Chad's right. The right move is taking
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Atlanta here. It's just it's painful to do because it's
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: it's rid or outdoors and he's just sloppy like he's
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: so if you go back and watch the film, the
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: reason Arthur was getting so upset was like he was
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: making he was designing plays to have guys open instead
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: of making the right reads. He's just locking in on
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: one receiver and like if the guy's triple covered, that's
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: who he's throwing it to, Like it doesn't matter to him.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: He's not going through his progression. So it's another game.
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: This week is tough, like there's just games. We gotta
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: just gotta pun of eat it. Just take these bad teams.
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: And this is another one where it's like the value
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: is technically on Atlanta, like you're getting them at two
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: and a half, we're supposed to take Atlanta. I just
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: I don't have it in me yet to pull the
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: trigger on it. I'm hoping it gets the three because
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: again that's another key number. But Atlanta is the spot.
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: Chad's right, like that's who we're probably going to be
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: on here.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: It's uh, I think it's going to get to three.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: It's it's uh, it's minus two and a half, minus
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: one fifteen.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: So yeah, the juice is towards the box.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: It's gonna it's going to get to three. So we'll
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: hold on that. Detroit at Baltimore, Hello, Detroit Baltimore is
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: right now. No, now, it's up to three. So we
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: bet this right away on Sunday night. We're on the
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: side of the wise guys. The bets are on the lines.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: The money is on the Ravens Lions. We said this
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: last week and we didn't think I could get higher,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: which is why we took the box, and that the
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: Lions value has never been higher in a burn bus.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff is the most profitable QB against spread the
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: past five years. That's getting even better this year. The Ravens, meanwhile,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: have not played great coming home from London. Lamarja not
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: great as a favorite. We think this is the right
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: spot the Lions the last four games seventy percent against
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: the spread. Lions and the Ravens have both beaten their
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: opponents this season by seven plunts points per game. They
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: face off in Week sevens when two teams winning by
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: seven plus points per game on the year meet this
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: late in the season. The favorite covers only forty percent
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: of the time in the past twenty years. Jeez, I
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: know we bet Baltimore at two and a half. We
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: already did it, which sucks.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: I was gonna make this, my Simon says, playfel still
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: two and a half. Like I love I still love Baltimore,
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: I love the value on Baltimore. I still love them
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: at minus three, I make this line minus three and
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: a half, and I just I just know if they
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: go to mines three and a half, this will be
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: the most public bed team we got the London stats
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: of like these teams that come back, it's always a
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: one possession game in the second half like that. That
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: that's ring true. Last week they played close, So yeah,
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: looking at this, it's more about fading the Lions. That
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: the fact that who have they played right? Last week?
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: They beat up on Tampa. The week before, they beat
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: up on Carolina, the week before, they beat up on
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: Green Bay. The week before they beat up they beat
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: up on Atlanta, and then they lost to the Seahawks
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: at home. So they've been doing what they should do
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: right they've been beating bad teams. They're running into a
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: really good team in this Ravens team, Like they're really good.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: And we're catching Lamar after a game where I don't
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: think he played great against Tennessee, like it just it
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: just didn't seem like it was one of his better games.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: And usually he bounces back big time against teams like this.
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: So Detroit, I think they've gotten away with some games here,
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: but you're about to get a true Northeast fall game apparently,
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: like apparently the weather might be bad this weekend up
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: in Baltimore. So I'm pissed this lines moved. I really
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: thought the public was gonna come in and hammer this
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: Lions team. So the fact that Evan just put our
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: chest supposed to be very windy, come on, Like they
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: just lost Montgomery. I think Gibbs is still out. The
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: Detroit running back to rookie like Reynolds made a hell
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: of a block. Reynolds is not a great running back.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: It's a reason he's their third stringer. Like the Troit
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: this game is what we think. It's gonna be a
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: really windy game. You need to have a running running back,
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: and you know the Ravens Yeah, they've had plug and
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: play guys in that backfield, but it's all about Lamar.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: Like Lamar's running style is the game changer here. So
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: I'm pissed this game be Simon says, I loved it
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: at minus two and a half, but still love it
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: at minus three. If me and Chat are faced with
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: the choice, I'm gonna do my best not to let
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: the minus three and a half scare me off. Come
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: Sunday we make our final five. But this just feels
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: like a good spot to back this Ravens team against
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: the lines.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it does. And it's like, look, we could twist
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: yourself in k nots finding reasons to bet both sides.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Sometimes it's about instinct and having done this a lot,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: and the the pace that the Lions are on is unsustainable.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: So you can keep betting against the Lions and at
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: some point you will win, right, And so it's just
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: a question of do you want to keep taking that
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: shot and do you think you're going to find the
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: right spot. If they continue to do this, then they're
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: going to go seventeen to one on the year, They're
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: going to race through the playoffs, and they're going to
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. Like it. They have to come
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: back to earth. Regression is a part of the game.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: It just it. Yeah, and Saric Goff is not as
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: good outside, and like it's a great coaching matchup. The
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: total is forty two, by the way, so you might
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: want to grab the under right now if we think
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: that weather's going to be as concern. It's a hard
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: one though, and three in the contest is probably gonna
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: be three and a half.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and just enjoy this week, Lions man, it's like,
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: this is your guys week. The Eagles lost the forty
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: nine ers loss. The Lions are like, are we the
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: best team the NFC? Like, the Lions fans are really
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: saying that right now, pulling their chest out. So it's
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: got to feel good if you a lionspan. I had
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: a really good offense, a really good defense, Your special
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: teams is really good. It's like, that's that's the dream scenario. Like,
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: you guys are a top three, top four team right
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: in the NFC. And yeah, you don't have the historical
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: date on your side that makes me have any confidence
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: for you guys to make a Super Bowl run. What
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: do you have one playoff win in fifty years something?
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: Crazy like that. This Lions fans enjoy this week because
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: usually Me and Chad are right in these spots. Just
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: a nice spot to back to Shravens team here. People,
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: don't let the numbers carry off. Me and Chad were
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: the original Lion lovers. We were all over them last
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: year ten to one, nine to one. I lost a
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: lot of money bet and then to win that division.
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: So don't don't say we're not lying lovers. We loved
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: the line.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: Nobody can. Anyone who's listened to this podcast knows we
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: are like a Dan Campbell podcast.
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: And as honest as I can, I don't. I really
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: don't even know how to respond to that. I mean,
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: I'm shocked by that.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: We root so hard for the Lions because we know
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: the NFL is better with Dan Campbell in the league.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: We never want Dan Campbell to get fired. We want
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: him to be coaching as long as we have this podcast.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: All right, We love the lines. We just want to
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: fade him in this spot. All right, dude, we're getting
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: down to the end of the schedule here. We still
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: always Simon says, we still owe an exec decision. We're
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: talking about Arizona at Seattle Seattle is up to an
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: eight point favorite in this game, So I think I
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: I I slight, slight slight lean to Arizona for no
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: on field reason. A little bit because of the number,
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: but it really relates to Evan's stats from above with
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: regard to divisional games and just in this spot, favoring
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: the dog on the road in a divisional game like
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: we passed in Arizona last week. It's a big dog.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: The pros liked against LA though well to say, uh, like,
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about it, and when we talk about LA,
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about you. Love in LA. And
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: I felt like Arizona had just reached its ceiling and
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: you know, they had overperformed their skill level and now
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: everyone had caught up to them. So I don't have
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: a strong opinion on this game.
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: I honestly failed them just because there's no James Connor.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: I just kept thinking to myself, this guy is what
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: this guy is what makes this offense run. And I
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: do feel like I got a little lucky in that
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: Rams game. They had opportunities and they just didn't come through.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: But I do think it's because he wasn't there, Like
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: he really is the Lynchpin for that offense where you
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: don't realize it, but him pick up the four or
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: five on the first or second down carriers and making
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: that a third and manageable for their you know offense
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: that needs short third downs. That was such a big
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: deal for that offense in Arizona. So if you do
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: want to take Arizona, just take them first half. Like
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: apparently they're one of the best first half teams in football.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: It's the same thing I think Evan every every week
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: is telling us every week to fay Ridder in the
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: first half, and I mean, I don't know what its
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: stat it's up to, but he might be an oh
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: for nine or oh for ten in the first half Ridder,
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: oh for ten, yeah, Ridder. So same thing with Arizona.
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: Seems like they're great in the first half and then
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: second half their all offense just doesn't do well like
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: they they're just whatever it is that happens in the
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: adjustments and after the first half. Their second half is
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: never as good Arizona. So if you do want to
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: take Arizona and a big number, go first half. For me,
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: full game. I love the Seahawks here. They're just after
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: a loss coming home. Their defense has really shown me
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: something this year, like they they really are talking a
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: lot of big game and you know, they for the
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: most part, have stepped it up. The only team that
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: really dominated them was the Rams in Week one, and
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: the Lions put up a ton ton of points. But
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: we talk all the time lines indoor. That's just different teams.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: So it's a big number for the Seahawks team here.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: But I got to take some chalk, and this is
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: this is one of the teams I'm gonna take here
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: for the chalk. I'll take Seahawks minus eight at home.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: Simon says, No, don't worry.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: Simon says, it's coming. It's coming. They're the only big
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: favorite I really like this week. Seahawks.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: All right, the Steelers are visiting the Rams. We talked
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: about this game on Sunday night.
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: You're all over it.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: When I said I was all over it, you gave
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: me that concerned look you give when you're like, I
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: don't know about that one, Chad. And when you say
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know about that one, Chad. We've been doing
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: this long enough for me to know that, like you're
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: really saying I'm stepping in it. But yeah, no, you
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: don't want to write you think so, because like, yeah,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: I'm a little nervous about it right now. Like I
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: love this game. I bet it Sunday night, and it
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: feels like a raw ross spot for Tomlin.
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: Not the greatest of all time.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Look at your work, every precedent we believe in that
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: we've bet on in the past, where we know it's
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: the right thing to do is backing him and the
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: Steelers in this spot. They are fifty six thirty one
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: and four against the spread as underdogs under Tomlin four
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread, most profitable coach past twenty years.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: They're coming off of by Deontay Johnson is is practicing again,
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: he could return. Kieran Williams is out for the Rams.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: But you've been on the Rams all off season. You
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: were on them last week against the Cardinals, didn't You
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: were not buying the Cardinals. So, like, what am I
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: doing here? Am I right? Am I wrong?
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: That's a moment right here for you young stars, Let's
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: live now. I think you're right. If you grabbed the
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: three and a half, which this line was three and
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: a half. My fear with this is if it's fourteen nothing, Rams,
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: you are dead. Your ticket on Pittsburgh is dead. And
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: that's the fear here where it's like it's my dream
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: is coming true. Like Cooper cup Stafford healthy, it's Week seven,
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: they're three and three, Like this was my dream scenario
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: for this Rams team, Like they're just let these guys
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: stay healthy. They're going to surprise people win games, and
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: that's what they've been doing. Like Pooka with Cooper Cup up,
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: it's a great one two punch for that wide receiving course.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Williams being out, it's not good. That guy
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: is a big deal to that Rams team. He's been
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: really really great for them in the red zone, especially
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: running the ball. So I'll downgrade a little bit. But
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: that's the fear here with this Pittsburgh team, Like Kenny
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: is not good, that offense is not good Canada arguably
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: when the worst o season all football. And I should
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: have said this that Lions guy what's his name, Ben
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: Johnson thro oc Yeah, the Bears. He should be the
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: first call the Bears make this offseason, Like if you
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: do get rid, burn it all down, get a new quarterback.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: What this guy's done with that Detroit offense? Every week
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: they have guys in and out. He caters to the
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: strengths of that offense, and that's what you want. Canada
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: is the exact opposite. Like Canada, he does not cater
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: to the strains of this Pittsburgh team's offense. So that's
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: my fear here, Chad. Where it's like the Rams. Maybe
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: we're buying an overvalued spot. But I you just saw
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: teams I liked last week coming off of bye week.
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: Their offenses look sluggish. I mean the Chargers coming off
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: of bye week. That offense didn't look right. We've seen
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: that time and time again happen on some of these
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: offenses coming off of bye week. They just don't look
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: game speed ready. That's the fear here, Chad. We're buying it.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: We're back in a Pittsburgh team on the road, Kenny,
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: on the road against the high powered offense. The Rams
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: strength isn't their defense, it's that offense. So I want
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: to get there with you. But if it's at three,
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: I'm not as confident where I am. If it's three
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: and a half, I could see myself getting on Pittsburgh.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: But right now three I'm still still leaning towards the
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: Rams here. But it is a tough one. For me. Man.
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: We make the simple complex in this business, don't we.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, we're on the Steelers like we're running
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: down the list here. We've got an interesting menu of
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: games that we'll have to review on Thursday. As sort of.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: We're buying alone. So many teams of the public perceive
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: as something where they're just they're just not what they
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: think they are. Like teams just had bad weeks people,
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: That's what it is.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: By the way, after the show a couple of weeks ago,
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: when we took the Steelers plus four against Baltimore, Matt
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: Mitchell asked one of our engineers, Dustin, who has a
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: lovely singing voice, to record a very special song. This
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: is our Howard Stern mock song moment starring Dustin. Please enjoy.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: I gotta bet my Tom and catching bull.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: Open loss a home.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, couldn't ask for now, A big strong drink. I'm
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: gonna for away. We're gonna sor because I gotta bet
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: Mike Tomline catches.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: For all right Green Bay at Denver moved him up
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: plus one for the Broncos opened to plus two. Your
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: first comment on Sunday Night Gotta watch Sunday Night Show
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: that's where you get the best of the number. First comment,
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: this is a stinky line. Yeah, at that point it
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: was plus two, Like I said, now it's plus one.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: Huge.
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: One of the biggest Pro Joe games of the week.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: All the money on Denver at Denver Broncos. We had
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: been saying all season, like, Russell Wilson wasn't the problem, right,
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: he wasn't getting better, but he wasn't the reason they
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: were losing. Their defense was the reason. Then, Russell Wilson
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: was terrible against Kansas City, laid an egg. Sean Payton
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: called a terrible game.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: We still almost covered though. That's the craziest part, dude,
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: if you got.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Eleven, you at least like, look, we love the under.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: In that game.
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: We had the I had a sixty yard field goal
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: Prime time under.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: We got it. But and look, at one point the
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: line was eleven. So if you could find me eleven,
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: which we talked about, then uh, you at least pushed
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: but advanced. Joseph fixed the defense against the Chiefs. We
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: love the Broncos.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: Here, Yeah, I gotta do it, got it, gotta tick
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: the Broncos. I hate it people, And if you're sick
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: of losing these close games by the Broncos. Totally get it.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: You can tease it up like I know plenty of
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: people that were like I couldn't get there. You guys
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: on the chargers by to put them in a teaser.
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: It feels like the same kind of thing here where
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: it's like, if you can find the one and a half,
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: get up to seven and a half, or take the
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: one up to seven, go for it. But we're talking
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: straight bets still love it, chat. We love Denver no
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: matter what. Is a dog here. If it flips to
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: them being a favorite, we know that Evan stat maybe
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: we'll get off of this one. But as you sit
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: here as a dog, how do you not love Denver here?
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, I bet at it two. I'm
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: imagining that if it stays at Denver as a dog,
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: we're gonna want to put it in the contest. You
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: gotta keep taking it if it flips. I wouldn't take it,
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: Like there are some pretty good trends against taking the
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: favorite when they've been the underdog. But yeah, look, we're
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: just going to keep losing money on betting on the Broncos,
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: and we're going to keep losing money betting it install Lions.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: It's just how it's going to be, and we hope
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: that on the edges, the other games that we don't
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: bet every single week, the other teams that we don't
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: bet every week, are going to come through for us.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: Look the La Chargers last night at home off of
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: by revenge game for Kellen Moore. They had that game.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: We bet it a two and a half. They really
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: should have won that game. If I may, I bet
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: this game at Chargers plus six on Sunday night. It
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: moved pretty quickly. I still like it. To my exec decision,
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I can't quit the Chargers. You gotta do it.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: Look at the look there's the situation for the Chargers
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: getting embarrassed and beat badly in a lot of ways.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: It's not a blowout, but beat badly in a primetime game.
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: The value will be flated. Although I don't think this
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: line will move very much against a Kansas City team
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: that feels too good. You know, I think the line
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: is inflated right now.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: I'm almost positive Evan had some crazy stat about all
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: the losses this Chargers teams had with Herbert. And it's
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: always close games and especially these divisional games are always
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: close games, so it feels like we're getting honestly two
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: free points of value. Yeah, here it is. Nineteen of
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: the chargers last twenty four games have been decided by
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: seven points or less, dating back to Week eighteen of
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty one. So you know, Chargers last eight losses
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: were by three, three, two, one, three, seven, three and six. Like,
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: this is just a team that I get it. If
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: you're like, just like last week, if you're scared off
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: by the low number, tease them up again. They win
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: and play close, ugly games, Like if they're gonna lose,
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: they're gonna lose by three. If they win, they're gonna
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: win by three. The Chargers just they have horrible coaching
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: and it's just the way it is, like whenever they
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: shouldn't make the right decision. Even yesterday, like your defense
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: is playing incredible. If you kick a field goal the
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: game was tied, it would have been tied ten to ten.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: Instead he went for it, didn't work out, end up
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: game coming down to a field goal at the very end,
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: and they lost by three. It's like the guy s
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: Daley just doesn't make the right choices and he tries
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: to blame analytics or do whatever with that stuff. It's like,
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: nah Man situational awareness. Your defense was totally dominating, which
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: was shocking that Dallas offense. And you know they didn't
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: take the three there, So five and a half, Chad,
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, this would have been amazing. At six like
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: this would have been such an auto play in the contest.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: But still five and a half, still would happily put
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: this in the contest.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: Well, look, I'll refer back to what I said earlier
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: when I was talking about the division games and the
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Falcons and the Bucks Dogs in division games, sixty games
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: above five hundred against the spread the past decade, home
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: division favorite, let's cover at a forty four point seven
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: clip forty five percent the past twenty years. Home division
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: favorites only covering forty five percent the past five years.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: And then, by the way, let's talk about Mahomes right,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: like Mahomes as a favorite of three and a half
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: or more, well under five hundred. This is a spot
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: where because the number is so big, it's always inflated
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: with the Chiefs. Everything is saying that the Chargers in
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: this game. Everything exec decision, you.
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: Know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a Foxhole guy.
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: I'm a Foxhold guy.
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: Here we go, all right, Simon, Let's talk about the
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: Sunday night football game. Game of the week. Boys, Sunday
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: Night got a great game. Miami Dolphins visiting the Philadelphia Eagles.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: The Eagles are one and a half points favorites. According
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: to bet three six five. These two teams have the
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: second shortest odd to win their conference and third and fifth,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: with the Eagles and Dolphins respectively shortest odds to win
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. This is the big one. All the
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: money is on Philly. Wise, guys like Philly, majority of
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: the tickets on Miami makes sense. The line has moved.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: Was it two and a half now? Is it one
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: and a half? Last week against the Jets felt like
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: a game the Eagles just had to get out of
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: their system right like they have been playing on the
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: edge of mistakes and just not getting burned by it.
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: Last week they played a defense that burned them. Something
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: tells me that this could be an important game for.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: You, Steimon says.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Simon says.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: When Simon says do it, we do. What Sion says.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: Gotta grab the one and a half while you can
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: A bunch of books are still showing two and a half,
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: So I easily can see it going back up to
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: two and a half, depends on what book, but you
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: can get it one and a half at I'm seeing
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: five books right now. So easiest bet of the week,
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: Like this might not be the being a real big
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: bet for your boy. What do we know about this
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: Miami team? They have a bad defense, a defense that
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: when they play bad teams, they don't care about giving
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: up a ton of yards. All they gotta do is
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: top in the red zone because they know their offense
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: is going to score for them. But we saw in
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: that Bills game Tua and pressure that's the kryptonite. Like,
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: if you got our front four that can get pressure
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: with just rushing for that's how you beat this Miami team.
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: What do we have here in this Eagles team? One
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: of the best d lens in all football. Jalen Carter
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: is supposed to be back. Apparently they took him out
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: last week just so they want to push it. They
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: wanted to rest them last weekgainst the Jets. Same with
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: Darius Slay. They're supposed to both be back for this
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: Sunday night game, catching the Eagles after a really bad loss.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: It feels like the perfect spot to back a veteran
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: team at home in prime time under a field goal
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: against you know, one of the most hyped offenses and
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: we've ever seen in all football. Like, I got no
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: doubt that the Miami'll put up points and get their own.
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: I got this same thing about the Eagles. Eagles are
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: going to be able to score at will in this
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: game against this Miami defense. Like Miami's got no one
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: on their defense. I see them having advantage of wise
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: against the Eagles team where the Eagles defense has a
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: huge advantage with that front four, Like if they can
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: get pressure with just four guys that the Bills did,
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: if you take away the run and put it all
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: into a that's not where they want to be. Like shockingly,
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: people don't realize Miami is right now on the best
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: not only the best passing teams, the best running teams.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: Most at He's on pace for like thirty one touchdowns
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: right now. They're running back for Miami, Like this guy
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: is playing out of his mind. So looking at this,
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: I'm shocked that so much money's coming on the Eagles
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: I really did think more people would be on this
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: Dolphins team and they would like this spot for them.
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: But I can't believe it's down to one and a half,
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: like such a good number, such good value on an
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: Eagles team that we have to back them here. Like
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: after such a bad loss against the Jets, Hurts his
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: worst game of the year, what have we seen. We've
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: seen after the Chiefs play that Jets team a huge
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: bounce back game, the Bills Josh Allen huge bounce back game.
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: So these quarterbacks, we think Hurts is one of these
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: elite quarterbacks. He should bounce back here. If he doesn't,
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: that tells you that something's wrong with Hurts and this
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: Eagles offense. So we got to play this spot. Play
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: the Eagles here to bounce back and trust that front
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: four again, pressure onto it. Like the Miami matches up
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: really well against ninety percent of the teams in this league.
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: But teams like the Eagles, teams like the Cleveland teams,
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: that front four that can get pressure, that's the game changer.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe we're getting value r now because Eagles
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: are so banged up. Chat but if Jalen Carter's cleared,
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: if slays back, man, this is such a good number
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: right now for this Eagles team.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's uh that one and a half is just
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: hanging there in certain spots, but there's a lot of twos,
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: so you got to grab the one and a half.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: If you're listening right now, what's the ceiling for you
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: on betting the Eagles as a as one of your
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: bigger bets? Like I can hear you talking about this,
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: and as you're talking about it, I'm firing away on
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: the Eagles minus one and a half wherever I can
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: find it. Yeah, I know enough to know when you
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: when you say this might be one of my big bets,
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: it means it might be a big bet.
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: And so it's getting there.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: What's your ceiling on the number? Like when do you
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: stop firing.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: Away after two? So I'll keep fire even at a two,
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: I'll keep fireing at this Once it's two and a
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: half three, that's when I'll stop. And you know, if
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: this was three and a half in our contest and
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: you guys wanted to fade us, totally get it. That's
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: such a key number. But if we're getting two and
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: a half or one and a half in the contest, easy, No,
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: brainer play for me on the Eagles.
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: Why don't you just fire away? If it's at one
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: and a half, why don't you just bet everything that
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: you think you would bet at once? I'm not judging it.
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: I'm like, I'm asking curiously. Like you see it's at
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: one and a half, you love it. Why don't I
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: bet the full capacity of what you would bet on
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: a game at that one time instead of all right,
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: some down? Now, oh it's still there two days later,
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: I'll put it more down. Like what's the philosophy to
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: get money down?
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: I have to pay a lot of people, and they're
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: called runners. And the biggest thing is not getting up
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: on the radar. So obviously if I come in me,
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: myself and I and put fifty k on the Eagles,
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: that number would move against me. Right, But if I'm
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: sending nobodies a thousand bucks here and there at a time.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: So I started Sunday night and now we're here Tuesday,
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: you know, I'm probably up to almost six figures now,
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: but all in small increments, so I'm not really popping
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: up on the radar. That's how I get good value
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: on these lines. So yeah, do I want to just
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: come in heavy handed? Right now and just be like, yeah,
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: give me, give me six figures on this Eagles team. Yeah,
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: but it doesn't really work that way, and a lot
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: of stuff goes into that. So yeah, don't worry. I'm
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: getting the money down. But it's one of these where
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: I'll bet it all week and then by Friday, if
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: it's still at this number, I can get way more
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: money down than I can right now, because right now,
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: the books, even the best books in America, they live
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: you early in the week because they don't want to
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: have a bad position either. So you know, all these
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: things like ravel tweets out, oh this is a two
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: hundred k bet on this team. You ever notice that
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: always comes late in the week. It's not early in
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: the week, those tweets, And that's for a reason. Like
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: these books, even if you're an amateur better, they're not
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: going to take huge money early in the week because
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: they just don't want to have that kind of thing
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: where it's like, okay, now we need Miami money wherever.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: That book will need a certain amount of money to
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: offset those big bets. So yeah, I wish I could
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: get more down right now. Chat, But it's just the
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: song and dance, the way I play it, it's just
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: little bets right now. A little bets for me is
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: a couple of thousand, So it adds up quick like
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: if you do a couple thousand dollars bets, all of
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: a sudden, you're up to fifty k. So that's how
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: I do. I just don't put a ton lump sum
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: down on one number right away.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: You know what, I'm not worried about your ability to
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: get money down. I'm worried that it took me about
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: four years to ask that question. The last game on
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: the board, the Monday night football game San Francisco in Minnesota,
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: this line moved from eight to seven six and a half.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: And how so the wise guys have been coming in
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: on Minnesota Kirk Cousins. This is weird, right, Kirk Cousins
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: most attempts in the league, passing attempts, most completions, highest
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: completion percentage, most touchdown passes in the league, which is
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: surprising to know when I was looking doing research yesterday.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Second most passing yards. This team cannot score, as we
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: like to say in the media business at scale, zero
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns this season. Do they miss Dalvin Cook? Zero
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns? So against the league's best passing defense and
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: a top ten rush defense, they will move the ball
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: against the Bears. This Vikings team fewer total yards, fewer plays,
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: fewer yards per play, fewer first downs, forty six rushing yards,
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: and the Bears, we all agree, are a terrible freaking defense.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: So to me, I know wise guys have come in
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: on this. This is a bet on the number, and
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: that's it. And maybe there's some residual health issues for
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. This is not a bet on the on
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I wanted to be on Minnesota. I feel like
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be a great spot to back down.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: But I'm with you. I think the numbers moved too
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: much and now the values on the forty nine ers.
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: So I'll throw a little on the forty nine ers
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: tea and I'll talk to people and see what they're
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: seeing this Vikings team. But I'm right there with you.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: It's I agree to the spread. McCaffrey probably is worth
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: a point and a half two points this forty nine
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: Ers team. That's how incredibly gifted he is on this team,
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: Like he not only is the run blocking scheme really good,
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: but he is the jack of all trades. We all
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: know this. He's the best running back in football for
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: a reason, and the best running scheme of football. So
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: makes sense that they've lost some points here and it's
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: numbers come down. I think it's moved too much. So
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: I totally got the pros are coming from like this.
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: This usually would be a spot. I love the back
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: of Minnesota, but coming off a bad loss, it was like,
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: we should take the forty nine ers here right like
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: this is we're catching the there a touchdown, So maybe
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: maybe things will change by Thursday. But I can tell
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: you this right now, like right with me and jag
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: Off this call up, I'm gonna throw some on the
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: six and a half. That's just a good number four
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: forty nine Ers team that what if they won, this
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: number would still be what seven and a half seven?
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: So it feels like we're getting some free points here
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: because they're kicking. I missed a field goal. And yeah,
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: I know Kirk's been better in prime time. I saw
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: some stat that he has been better since he's gotten
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: the Minnesota but you know you just said it. They
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: have no run game. He's down his number one receiver
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: going against my number two grated defense now in all
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: football like this, this forty nine Ers team, it should
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: be really easy. I'll scheme scheme this game up. It's
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: like you just drop everybody, rush for three pass rushers
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: and let your let your front four do what you
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: pay them so much money do, like Bosa Hardgrave like,
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: this should be a great game for them. So damn
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: I really wanted to get there the Minnesota. But if
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: it feels like I'm gonna go chalk here and go
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: with the p blok on this forty nine Ers team.
• 53:02
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