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Oscars Betting Preview with Michael Lasker · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief content Officer at the Action Network.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode because
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: he never takes a day off, which we talked about
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: in his review. He's a very good worker. My co host,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, Michael Padre, professional better, Simon Hunter Yead.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: You love to say no days off. The NFL off
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: season apparently does not exist. I'm trying to prep for
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: the draft, and it feels like every day we have
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: a new quarterback on some different team. I can't remember
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: ever being this way. This is we're in a new
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: era kind of what is it? Two straight years a
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: team a player switched team at quarterback Tom Brady and
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: then Matt Stafford and took those teams the Super Bowl. So,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's so much breakdown. We came to get
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: to all of it, but this is pretty crazy. Matt
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Ryan going from Atlanta to the Colts. I was dead wrong.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: I'll be up front. I had had heard whispers about
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: the Shawn Watson and the love for Atlanta Falcons. That's
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: why I don't give out all my tips on the
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: show because sometimes the tips just it's not gonna work
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: out that way. But I've been here since February that
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: he wanted to go to Atlanta, so we gave out
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Atlanta seventy one. They went all the way down to
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  Speaker 1: thirty five to one to four to one to win
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  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl ad FanDuel. Even the media got it wrong.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Watson went to the Brown So it's been a crazy
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: week for NFL and bet in NFL futures, and look,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: we're gonna dig deeper into all of it as markets settle.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Matt Ryan, you mentioned Deshaun Watson, you mentioned the NFL
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: can't let anybody else have any attention. But but around
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: the world, it's going to be impossible for people to
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: ignore the fact that it's Oscar's week. Simon Hunter and
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: last year, one of our most popular offseason podcasts featured
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  Speaker 1: our guests returning today, If You Talk Academy Awards betting
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: friend of the podcast, Mr Michael Lasker, a true Hollywood insider,
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  Speaker 1: a talent manager at Mosaic in Hollywood, Land, one of
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  Speaker 1: the Ones upon a Time named one of the forty
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: most Powerful people in Comedy by the Hollywood Reporter. Most importantly,
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  Speaker 1: he's a legitimate Oscars savant to if people don't remember
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: or they're new to the podcast, because we have a
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  Speaker 1: lot of new listeners, Michael, our audience is blown up
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: since you were last year that we are massive massive.
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  Speaker 1: One of your party tricks is you can name all
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: nominees and winners across the major award categories for any
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: year in Oscar's history. We will put that to the
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  Speaker 1: test later in the episode. Um So we are super
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  Speaker 1: excited you're here if we're gonna talk Oscar's betting across
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  Speaker 1: seven major categories. And by the way, Oscar's betting is huge.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: It is huge in the way March Madness is huge
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  Speaker 1: because it's become sort of a galvanizing event. I don't know, Michael,
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  Speaker 1: if like you have that experience, well, first of all,
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  Speaker 1: it is an absolute honor to be back. I really
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  Speaker 1: mean that I had so much fun last year. I
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: want to be clear. The forty most Powerful Comedy list
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: that was like forty of like forty two people, so
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: that that that you're giving me too much credit. Doesn't.
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  Speaker 1: That's just a list that a magazine invents to sell magazines.
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  Speaker 1: They do those lists like every three weeks, God bless them.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Was really interesting about betting in the Academy Awards a
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: couple of things. First of all, as I'm sure you know,
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: and I would think most of your listeners probably know,
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  Speaker 1: the Golden Globes are like kind of on ice right now.
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  Speaker 1: The Golden Globes don't have anybody that for it that
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  Speaker 1: are also in the Academy because the Golden Globes are
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: these foreign journalists who vote for it. But the point
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: being is there have always been a lot of precursor
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: awards leading up to the Oscars, which is why some
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: people think the Oscar ratings are going down. There's too
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: many awards shows, which I totally agree with. But the
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  Speaker 1: Golden Globes didn't happen this year. They kind of happened
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  Speaker 1: in absentia. And then you have like the Critics Choice
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  Speaker 1: Awards and SAG. But the point is, nobody who votes
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  Speaker 1: the Academy Awards has voted in that block yet. Because
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: when the guilds have their awards like the dj A,
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  Speaker 1: w A, the p g A, that's a whole another
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  Speaker 1: several group of like massive amounts of producers or directors
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  Speaker 1: or writers. So the point being is, well, think of
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: it like this. You guys are betting on like the
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Patriots playing the Colts. You've watched the Patriots play like
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  Speaker 1: sixteen games in a row. No one's actually watched any
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  Speaker 1: of these people do anything except they've seen the actual movies.
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  Speaker 1: So my point is that at the end of the day,
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  Speaker 1: there's ten thousand Academy members. No one knows what they're
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  Speaker 1: gonna do. And I often say, if you've been nominated
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  Speaker 1: for an Oscar, you can win. If you got to
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  Speaker 1: the final ballot, why can't you win, You're already there.
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  Speaker 1: So yes, there are oftentimes there are favorites will get
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: to that. Excuse the punts like and jumping ahead obviously,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: like Will Smith is like one of the big favorites
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  Speaker 1: on Sunday for King Richard. You guys must feel good
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: because you've got like a sports movie in the mix
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: of this year. So you guys, you guys feel like
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: you're being paid attention to. But my point being is
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: that it's an interesting thing to bet on because it
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: feels like there are locks, but you don't really know
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  Speaker 1: because you actually don't have much information out there to
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  Speaker 1: suggest that you know what's going to happen, unlike again
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  Speaker 1: in many of these sports situations. So yeah, people could
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: do well, you know, betting on the Oscars, and I
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: assume you're going to point out there's like hundreds of
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  Speaker 1: ways to do it through all these websites and so forth,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Like you probably don't have to go to the Bahamas
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: anymore to place a bet on the Oscars, right, you
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: can just do that like anywhere you want. No, that's
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: the beauty of this is like you know, up until
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: the last couple of years, this was not available in
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: legal betting markets, and even since we spoke last year,
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: there's so many more places in which you can get
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: money down legally. Obviously, we're sponsored by FanDuel. You can
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: bet on the Oscars on FanDuel. All the odds that
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: we're talking about for the Oscars, they're coming from FanDuel.
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  Speaker 1: Reminder of the Oscars if you want to watch how
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: you potentially do in your bets a PM Eastern on
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: ABC UM. But yeah, it's it's fairly new. Let's get
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: to it. Let's people should know it is limited. So like,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: if you like you're listening on, You're gonna been on
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: FanDuel the max you're gonna be able to get down
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: it's probably gonna be five. I mean, it's just like
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: he talked about, it's so much rumor and stuff that
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: the books don't want exposure to it. So that's definitely
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: something to keep in mind here. If you think you're
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: about to make a good a good amount of money
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: off this, better in person or betting online. I've already
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: been a couple of sports books. It's limited. Uh, they
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: just don't want the exposure to it. And in my opinion,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: if they want to fix the Oscars, get a funny host.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I there's nothing better, especially as a peasant, a commoner
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: as I am, seeing a comedian just lay into these
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Hollywood actors at the Oscars. So they bring Simon. I
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: couldn't agree more. And I mean, I think you know
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: they as maybe your listeners don't know. They're having three
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: hosts on Sunday um and Amy Schumer is one of
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: the hosts. She's probably gonna be the one who lays
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: in the most. But yeah, this weird thing happened not
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: to bore everybody, but Kevin Hart was gonna host the
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Oscars three years ago, some old jokes surfaced. He got
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  Speaker 1: mini canceled for five seconds, and then the Academy got
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: scared of having a host for a couple of years.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: And it's like, I'm old enough to remember when it
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: was like Steve Martin, Woppy Goldberg, Billy Crystal, like that
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: was so fun because maybe part of what it was
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: was the reverence. You know, um, they had even David
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Letterman like and who was a little more off kilter,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: but they had a reverence. They could make fun of
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: everybody in the room while still celebrating everybody. And it
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: is so weird to me. It's really sad that somehow
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: the Oscars, the hosting being got so messed up that
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: now like nobody wants to do it. I thought Jimmy
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Kimmel was excellent. He did it two years in a row,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: and he famously did the one that had the snaff
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: foo the best picture. I've talked to people in Jimmy
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Kimmel's circle and they're just like, it's thankless, Like it
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter how good of a job you do. The
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: next day, the reviews, I'll say you were fine, and
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: the show is too long and so I think a
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: lot of people they just don't want to do it.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: They don't like want the guff. And again, I'm old
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: enough to remember when like Billie Crystal was the quasi
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: permanent host for like a decade. You know, he took
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: some time off, but he did it like six times
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: in the nineties and it was really cool. So I
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: really hope they go back to that. They went after
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: a ton of comedians this year and everybody passed if
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: you know the right people, if they would have just
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: got Pete Davidson, well supposedly they asked Pete Davidson. But
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: that's my point is that people like that are passing
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: now because they're also a little afraid they're gonna say
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: something too blue and then they're gonna get canceled. I mean,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: it speaks a whole another bigger issue about where we
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: are in the state of comedy. So I think the
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: three women that are doing it on Sunday want to
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: psych Sammy Schumer and Regina Hall. Yes, they're each taking
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: like a different hour of the show. So let's dig in.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Let's get to it. The first category, Best Film. They
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: expanded the nominations a few years ago, so I think
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: there's ten films up for Best Film of the Year.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Power of the Dog minus one forties starring Benedict Cumberbatch
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: and Kirsten Dunst and Jesse Plemons is the leader. In
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: the Clubhouse Coda remake of a French film plus one
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: oh five is number two. I've got very strong opinions
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: here of the movies I've seen, I haven't seen all
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: the movies, but I have seen these two movies, so
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: I've seen the favorites. Michael, handicap it from your point
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: of view, knowing Power of the Dog is sort of
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: the leader, and the has the shortest odds and Koda
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: has the second shortest dots. I should also name the
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: other movies being in consideration Belfast, Kenneth Brauna, West Side Story,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Steven Spielberg, Dune. I forgot King Richard, as you mentioned, Uh,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: that's the one starting Will Smith Labors, Pizza, Paul Thomas Anderson,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: don't look up Jesus Christ. That was terrible, Adam m
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: uh drive my Car, and Uh Nightmare Alley, which is
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: a bit of a surprise. So handicap before me again
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: for your listeners. It almost could equate to sports in
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: the sense of who you think is like, you know,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: looking good in September for the NFL versus looking good
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: in January. Power of the Dog has been the prohibitive
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: favorite for like four months. You know Jane Campion, who
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: won an Oscar for writing the Piano. She has been
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: in New Zealand and Australia making these really good TV
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: shows like Top of the Lake hasn't made a mainstream
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: film in a while, and this is like Netflix is big,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: big push to finally win an Oscar for Best Picture,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: and people really like this movie. I've seen it. It's
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: very good, it's very interesting. It's got a very complex ending.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: But Coda is like the quasi little movie that could
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: from Apple, another streaming service that was bought at Sunday's
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: last year full disclosure of my colleagues client wrote and
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: directed it, but I sweared not by so though I
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: thought it was wonderful and I like Power of the
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Dog a lot too. But Koda has come on very
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: late and has a lot of momentum right now. And
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the thing that your listeners need to know is that
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: the Academy voting only started like a week ago, so
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: you know, it doesn't matter what somebody thought in October
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: and October people thought Belfast was gonna be the Best Picture,
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: and I do not think that's going to win. So
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: if you look at the last ten years or so,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: more than certainly like the fifty years before, the last
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: ten years, you've had a lot of split director and
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Best Picture winners. So like La La Land was Best
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Director two thousand sixteen for Damian Gazelle, Moonlight was Best
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Picture two thousand eighteen, Alfonso Kron best Director of a Roma,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: but green Book was Best Picture? Right, Um, so you
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: see that more and more. It's happening more and more, Um, Alfonso, Sorry,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Alejandra and Arito one Best Director for the second year
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: in a row for The Revenant, and Spotlight was the
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Best Picture. So jumping into your second major category, I
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: think the smart money is that Jane Campion will win
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Best Director. Boat is going to win Best Pick. Sure, now,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Coda only has three OSCAR nominations and not since like
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Grand Hotel in two as a movie with that a
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: few ASCAR ownations one Best Picture. But the truth is,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I don't think that stuff matters anymore. And ironically, what
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: you're gonna see, not to spoil, Dune will probably win
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: the most Oscars on Sunday, because it's going to dominate
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: all the technical categories. So this is not one of
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: those years where you have a Titanic that's gonna win
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: eleven Oscars, or you know, Lord of the Rings or
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: maybe eleven Oscars, remember the third Lord of the Rings.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: So I think I would bet on Coda. I think
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Coda is surging um and Power of the Dog. You know,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Jene Campion probably wins Best Director, and it's one of
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: those two. Nobody else Belfast West Side Story, none of
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: the others have a chance. I would tell you to
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: bet on Coda. You know what's interesting the way you
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: described the Power of the Dog. Nobody says, Oh, I
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: love this movie. It's so good. Oh, I like, I
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: had all the fields. They're like, it's interesting, it's complex.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: I watched it. It was subtle to the point of
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: non existence, like it just like I almost I didn't
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: want to watch it at first because all the reviews
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: were about how sadistic Benedict Cumber batches in the movie,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: and that's just not my jam and and so I
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: really was turned off by the way it was described.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: And then we decided to watch it. My wife and
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: I and we stopped in the middle and did a
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: forty five minute zoom with her parents, which was even
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: more uninteresting. That's how the filmmaker intended you to watch it, Chad, Yeah,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: I went. I picked up my kid at like eleven
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: thirty at night, like by the time, like it just
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: didn't hold my attention was coda, Like I was all
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: happy tears. It was a beautiful, wonderful film. You know.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: The funny thing that Power of the Dog. I saw
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: a couple of months ago and I said to a friend,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: I liked it, I said, but I it reminded me
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: of Brokeback Mountain, and I like to Brokeback Mountain much better. Well,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: I found out a little bit of googling. Power of
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: the Dog is a novel from seven that Annie Prue
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: read in like the eighties, and it inspired her to
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: write Brokeback Mountain, which was then adapted by Larry mcmurphry
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: and Diana Osana. So it's kind of interesting to see
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: just how one person's art inspires the next generation because
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: it has very similar themes. And apparently I just heard
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: on another podcast. I won't name them. I don't want
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: to draw your viewers away. That um, the guy who
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: wrote the book Who's Dead, who wrote the Power of
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: the Dog. It's basically based on his life. He's the kid,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: he had the abusive um, he had the benet a
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: car Batch guy in his life. I don't know if
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: he did what the movie would tell you he might
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: have done. Not to spoil it, but that was his
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: that was his upbringing. So I hear you coda. It
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: was just beautiful. You don't see enough about deaf culture,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: and it's kind of ironic. As Marley Matlin, you was
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: the first deaf person to win an oscar in nine
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: six from Children Over the Lesser God, which is really
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: interesting movie. Actually one of my clients mothers wrote the
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: play that it's based on. She passed away about two
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: years ago. I just don't see this talked about a lot.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: And you see that family in that movie, and you
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: see how much love they have but also how complicated
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: they are. And I thought the young woman who you
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: know played the you know, the doctor who can hear,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: I thought she was incredible. To me. It was, you know,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: head and shoulders above Power of the Dog. I hope
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: at winds the oscar. I loved it. It was the
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: exact right movie the exact right time for me personally,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: just thought it was amazing. You mentioned Best Director Paul
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: Thomas Anderson Liquors, Pizza is about plus one, Steven Spielberg,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: West Side Story also ties to one, Kenneth Brauna Belfast
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: to one, and then resup Hamagucci Drive My Car. You
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: mentioned Jane Campion, So she directed Power the Dog right now,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: and fandel she is minus to come home with the award.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: I think she will win. I mean there was a
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: snap food with her ten days ago where she made
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: this comment to the Williams sisters at an award show
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: where she said, you know, you guys are amazing, but
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: I have to compete against the men, and you don't.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: I think what she meant, I think was that directing
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: in movies has been male dominated for over a hundred years.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: I mean there's only been, like I think Variety lists,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: there's only been eighteen movies nominated for Best Picture directed
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: by women, and as far as women nominated for Best Director,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: I mean it's Lena worked Miller in like nineteen seventy six,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: I think, and then the next time it was Jane Campion,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: and then it was Sofia Coppola in two thousand and three,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: and then it was Katherine Bigelow in two thousand and
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: nine and she was the first woman to win Best Director.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: And then Gregi Growig was nominated in UM in twenty
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: seventeen for Ladybird. And uh, and now we've got Jane
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: nominated again. So I think that's what she meant. Um.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: You know, I'm sure she's a nice person. Uh. I
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: think she's gonna win. I've talked to a lot of
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: people this week in the business who think that Spielberg
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: is a dark horse, UM, just because he did such
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: an amazing job West Side Story, And I don't know,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: I don't see it happening. I would bet on Jane
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: Campi Simon, I want you to weigh in best Actor.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: I want to ask one more question about director, because Michael,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: you mentioned Spielberg. So to me, that movie was indicative
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: of a very inside movie industry story. Everyone loved it,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: took a while to put together, beautifully directed, colorful, wonderful.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: New talent comes out and is critically loved and bombs
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: at the box office because for variety of reasons, you know,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: the studio wanted to put it out at the box Office,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: they delayed or they waited on the streaming and just
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: debuted on Disney. Plus, I wonder if he is becoming
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: while it's Spielberg and he's sort of the most powerful
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: person in the world when it comes to this business, Like,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: is he representative of sort of Hollywood struggling with the
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: way things are changing and they are rooting for him
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: and it because it was so good and didn't do
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: well critically when they really would like movies like this
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: to do well. That could be a big part of it.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: And I think the other thing too that you cannot underestimate.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: So the Academy in the last five years, they like
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: massively opened the voter rolls and they added about five
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: thousand members and it was it was an initiative to
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: add more diverse people, younger people, types of people that
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: maybe had not been welcomed to the Academy for many,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: many years. But what's interesting if you look at the winners,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, like then you still had Green Book with
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: you know, and it's like that feels like a movie
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: that was voted on my people over sixty and I
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: liked Book. Um, So I think that my point is
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: the Academy is still on the older side. I think
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: the weird thing about West Side Story, to be quite honest,
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: is like the this movie already one best picture, I
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: mean one like eleven oscars in one, so it's like,
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: and he did an amazing job with it. But that's
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: what seems weird to me, is like, are we honoring
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: him for a movie that was already like one of
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: the great masterpieces ever. Spielberg is not going anywhere. He
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: is a spry like seventy three girl man who is
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: going to make a gazillion more movies. So I would
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: bet on Jane Campion. Also, it's very interesting just because
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: this is a pattern doesn't mean it's going to happen.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: But if you go back to two thousand and ten,
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: I could name them for you in a second if
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: you want me to. Almost every best director is a
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: non American born director, which is I think really great
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: and fascinating that, like the rest of the world is,
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: you know, producing these amazing voices, they're ultimately coming to America.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: So like I mean, you guys study all the stuff,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: you look at these numbers that would suggest Jane Campion
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: is gonna win, because I mean every every year it's
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: a non American born director has been winning a trend
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: that is a trend to go Simon Hunter Michael is
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: bringing next level analytics to the best directing category. A
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: lot of these big movies have been flopping, like The
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Last Duel that was one of the bigger flops of
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: last year, and that one of the biggest budgets. So
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: we're definitely seen a trend where it's like, I think,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: then you started thinking about what audience is going to
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: go out and see these movies other than people that
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: are old like Chad, I just want to sit at home,
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: get the movie and watch it on the couch, like
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: you don't really feel like in the movies. And the
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: movie you did go see out wasn't The Spider Man.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: I went to see The Batman a couple of weeks ago.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: It was a little long and literally too dark, Like
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: I couldn't see a fucking thing. So when when it
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: was over, my wife and kid were like, we loved it.
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: I'm like they're and my wife was like, you couldn't
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: really see a kid who I'm like, I could not
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: see anything. Yeah, I haven't yet because it's hard to
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: get out of the movie is three hours long and
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: the Grove, our closest movie theater in l A runs
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: thirty five minutes of previews and commercials, and my wife
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: and I we can't make the like five hour around
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: trip to go see the movie between like feeding the bait,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Like so, but but here's
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: the thing though, and this goes to your point about
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Last Toul Simon. They already announced The Batman's coming on
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: HBO Max at the end of April. The studios, they
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: think they have to do it shortening their own timeline
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: literally by putting these movies out so fast onto v
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: O D to make more money. I mean, you guys
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: all know time goes by so fast. If you were
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: like an adult who want to see the Last Duel,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: all you had to wait it was like a month
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: to see it, and a month goes by really fast.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: You have other ship to do. And that's why a
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: lot of those movies are starting to fail at the
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: box office. It's a double edged sword though, because I'm
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: an old soul, I'm not good with technology. I can
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: get you any movie you want right now for free.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: So that's what they're dealing with here. It's like I
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: get what they want to delay Batman. But it's like,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I could have got that opening weekend,
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: you know, the Chinese version, the Russian version, whatever. They
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: would have the subtitles of the bottom, but it would
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: be clear picture. So I get it. Man. It's it's
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: a tough battle for these movie things. That's why this
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: next category is funny. Best Actor. This feels like a
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: makeup award this year. So Will Smith, I'm looking right
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: here for King Richard Mine is six. That's yeah, that's crazy.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: And Benedict Cumberbatch, who Chad just talked about little bit
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: with the power of the Dog. That to me that
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: was pretty good acting Like I did not like him
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: at all, and he's to me a pretty likable guy. Um,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: so he's in there plus five fifty. That's really that's
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: a crazy discrepancy from the first place guy to the
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: second place guy. Is that really? Is that just what?
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: It's a foregone conclusion this year that it's just gonna
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: be at totally foregone conclusion. And I thought, I mean,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: they look, Bennett was great. I think that the Will
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: Smith thing is half of a makeup oscar. And what
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: I mean by that is I think it's a great
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: performance he is worthy of winning. Sometimes people talk about
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: makeup Oscars, where people win Oscars for roles that weren't
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: as challenging as other roles. But it feels like a
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: makeup oscar because we liked Will Smith for so long
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: and he's been nominated two other times. There were a
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: couple other times he should have been nominated that he wasn't, like,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: even going out to six streies of separation, and so
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: I think there's a sense of like, it's just his time,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: and we love him and we want to give it
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: to him. I mean, he's been quote unquote running for
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: six months, he released his long awaited autobiography, He's doing
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: all this massive publicity. But I thought he was really
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: good and I yeah, it's on your on your Shelf,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: and I am. I watched that movie and I feel
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: like I was not watching Will Smith and Bennet Comberbadge
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: is a brilliant actor. For the people who have never
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: seen his Sherlock Holmes BBC show, it's incredible. But he's
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: just gonna be around. He's gonna get not in five
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: more times. So this to me is the lock of
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: the night. Like when I watched King Richard ten Minton
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: I was like, Yeah, he's winning the oscar like this
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: is this is when he's when he's like fighting with
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: the gangs who are like stalking his daughters, He's like, Okay,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: he's winning the oscar like he's amazing. So that that
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: is the lock. I don't know how much you can
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: win on that. Why does that make you when you
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: see that? Why does that make you feel like? Get
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: I think of that, and it feels like a very
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: consistent trope in movies about sports, which which part in
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: particular it's it's the father being protective in a difficult
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: neighborhood of his children against gangs like that. That's not
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: sort of unique in cinema to me, Why does something
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: like that when it's done in this movie speak to
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: you as he's getting For me, I thought it was
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: just the pure acting of like him, like going at
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: night like face the gang again and then getting beaten up.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: I just felt it was so raw. But but to
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: further answer your question, I think where the movie was
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: so interesting and I'll admit I mean, I'm I only knew.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: I think I had a biased opinion of Richard Williams
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: based on the news of the nineties that he was
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: this cranky dad who was like overbearing. But you you
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: see that movie, which granted the Williams Sisters produced, and
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: it seems like, no, he was trying to protect these kids,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: give them a real childhood, and to also you know,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: managed the expectations of their lives. But ultimately, thought what
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: made the movie interesting going forward, you know, past those
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: early scenes, um, was how he was managing their lives
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: and wanting them to be kids and taking them out
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: of the junior tournaments and all that stuff. So I
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: don't know, it's it's a very good question. I get
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: your point. Whether it's The blind Side or other movies
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: like that, it's definitely a trope. But I think it happened.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: I mean that that's the thing, you know, from what
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: I have read about the Williams sisters, Uh, that was
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: a real thing, you know, um, And I don't know,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: I just thought will Smith he was he was complicated
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: in that movie but powerful, and you got kind of
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: how much he loved these kids because he was so
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: fueled by trying to give them a better chance than
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: what he had had. Obviously, So anyways, I think that
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: that's the lock of the night. He's gonna Win. I
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: like this next one is a little bit better because
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: it's so flip floppy. I've been checking for the last
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: couple of months, and for best Stress, it's been moving
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: around a lot, so just checking out. And FanDuel Jessica
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Chastain The Eyes of Tammy How do you pronounce that
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: last name? Tammy Fay? The Eyes of Tammy Faye minus
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: one forty, which is new to me because I literally
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: checked not even a week ago. And Nicole Kidman for
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: being the Ricardo's was favorite at the time. She's now
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: plus two forty. Christian Stewart for Spencer plus five hundred.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: And you know, I don't hate Penelope Cruise. She's always
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: at the bottom for Parallel Mothers plus six, which I
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: thought she was really good at. I honestly, of all
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: the movies I watched, of all these actresses, I've only
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: seen three of these. To me on this list, he
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: was my favorite ones. That's surprisingly seeing her at the
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: bottom there plus six, well what I think is happening
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: in this category. And Jessica jess Stein is a is
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: a kind of a colleague of mine. Um. You know,
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: I gotta give you all my all my comments of interest. Um, yeah,
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: five women. Penelope Creuse one Best Learnning Actress for Vicky
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Cassina Barcelona back. I think in two thousands, in two
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: tho UM, Olivia Coleman one Best Actress in eighteen for
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: the Favorite UM. And then you've got a cole Kidman
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: who won Best Actress in two thousand two for The
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: Hours UM. And then you have Christmas Stewart, you have
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: Jessica Chesstains. You have three women who have already won
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: the Oscar. And Jessica chess Stain has been nominated twice before.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: She's a brilliant actress who the community really really respects.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: She's excellent in Tammy Faye Um christ and Stewart was
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: great in Um Spencer, but that's a movie. I feel
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: like people were very divided on and part of me
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: thinks people just look at this category and think, well,
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: three of the women already have an Oscar. Christmas Stewart's
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: pretty young, she's gonna be back. Chess Stain was nominated
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: twice before for the Help of Zero Dark thirty. It's
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: just kind of her time and so but this one
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: is is it? This one could be a surprise. I
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: think chess Stain will win she's been surging as of late,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: but you can't count out. Like Olivia Coleman is really
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: good in The Lost Daughter, and Olivia Coleman is one
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: of those British actors and actresses now where it just
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: seems like we're gonna give them five Oscars because they're
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: just genius and everything they do. And she is amazing
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: in that film. But I would put your money on Chestaing.
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: I think she's gonna win. Can we uh take? Can
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: we not down the brilliance of Jessica Chastain and Penelic
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: p CRUs because they were of the three five five,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: which I tried to watch and it was so bad
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: I had to turn it off on animals. Never turn
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: off movies. You're gonna get me, get me in trouble.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: You know what, it's everybody they make. People make a
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: lot of movies and not all movies work, and making
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: movies very hard. That's the real alchemy. I represent a
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: lot of people people. Here's the thing about movies. You
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: have to remember about anything TV, there's always somebody on
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: the other side doing their absolute best and sometimes it
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: doesn't to connect, you know, no different than than athletes.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: They're trying their hardest and they don't they don't know
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: He's uh. I don't disagree with you. I did. I
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: watched that movie. I love Jessica Chastain, love her, love
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Penelope CRUs think she's amazing. Like I watched that movie.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: I turned it on. I was like, everybody in my
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: house was out. I'm like, I've seen the previews for this,
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: I've been wanting to see it. I turned it on.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: I'm like, oh God, and they were acting their hearts out.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: They were trying so hard and they were putting everything
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: behind it. It just you know, it wasn't translating Best
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Supporting Actor. We talked about Power of the Dog. We
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: talked about Kirsten Dunn's son in that movie and how
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: better to Cumberbatch sort of terrorizes him. Cody Smith McPhee
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: plus plus two twenty to win the Oscar Troy cot
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Sor for Coda is at minus Kern Hines. I looked
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: it up. I want to make sure I was pronouncing
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: it correctly, because as it's Gaelic. Curon Hines Belfast plus
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: eighteen hundred. Jesse Plemons one of my favorites as a
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: Friday Night Lights advocate devotee the power of the dog,
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: Kirsten Dunn's husband in real life and in the movie,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: plus J K. Simmons being the Ricardo's he was probably
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: the best part of the movie for me. Plus there
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: this one is that this is another kind of lock
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: of the Night. I mean again, if you do go
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: off the trend, Troy Cotser has won every major award. Look, well,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: you have to decide about Sunday. Since CODA only has
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: three nominations. You're either all in on CODA or you're not.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: And it's nominated for Supporting Actor, Adatmosphere and Playing Picture.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: And so you have to just think, like, do I
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: believe that there's a code of surge. If there's a
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: code of surge, it's gonna sweep those three oscars. And
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: that's and and by the way, I want to be clear,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: there are lots of movies that have one Best Picture
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: that have only one one or two oscars. Argo famously
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: in one Best Picture in Best Editing. That's it. So
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: there's movies to win Best Picture that only win an
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: Oscar too. There's just not a lot that only get
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: three nominations. Um, I think he'll win. He's really really
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: good in the movie. Um. He's kind of the discovery
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: of this Oscar season. I mean apparently, you know, he's
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: been acting for years and he was homeless, and you
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: know he's had a hard time making a living. There's
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: only so many parts for deaf actors, so I think
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: he'll win the You know, the early season favorite was
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: Cody Smith McPhee, but I don't think it's happening. And
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: now you could argue he's kind of canceled out by
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Jesse Plemmons. J J. Simmons already one supporting actor in
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: UM for Whiplash, and I don't think he's gonna win.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: And then you've got Karen Hines, who I thought was
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: incredible in Belfast. That to me is sort of like,
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: we've loved this guy for twenty five years and he's
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: really good in this movie. Let's nominate him. But he's
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: not gonna win. Apparently has COVID right now, so I
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: hope he can go on Sunday Best Original Screenplay Belfast
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: at plus one fifty don't look up, this was so
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: bad plus two seventy the worst person in the World
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: plus a thousand, King Richard plus The favorite is Liquorice
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: Pizza Paul Thomas Anderson minus one Don't say Don't Look Up.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: As a long shot. That movie was freaking terrible. This
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: is a really, really weird category. I will go ahead
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: and tell you this is I don't know I'm gonna
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: give you a pick, but like we'll break it down quickly,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: and you know, I think Don't Look Up will win.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: McKay won an Oscar for the Big Short. He's been
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: nominated a ton. Now, I don't think that's gonna win,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: So take that off the board. I don't think King
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Richard's gonna win. Take that off the board. That leaves Belfast,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: Licorice Pizza and The Worst Person in the World. The
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: Worst Person in the World is a really really good
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: movie that came on very very late in the Oscar season.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: It's a foreign film. It's also nominated for Best International Film.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: This has a real shot of winning. I don't I'm
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: not convinced yet that it will because I don't think
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: it's quite had the time to seep in. But but
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: as a real shot, Belfast could win simply because Kenneth
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: Brown has been nominated like for ten Oscars now all
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: the way back to Henry the Fifth and nine for
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: Best Director and Best Actor, which is an amazing film.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: He made it. He was like twenty three and this
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: could kind of be his makeup oscar Um and it's
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: about his childhood and he did a really good job.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: And then you have Paul Thomas Anderson. This is another
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: one where it felt like two months ago, Okay, it's
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: time to annoint p T a once and for all.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: And I worshiped Paul Thomas Anderson worshiped, but like Liquors
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: pizzas probably his seventh best movie he's made, and I
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: loved it. But I the more I think about it,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: I just don't know if that's going to be what
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: we look back and say, that's the movie Paul Thomas
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: Anderson won an oscar for. So I'm giving you an
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: non answer answer. It's a three way heat between Belfast,
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: Lagors Pizza, and the worst person in the world. If
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: I was betting now, I would I would still probably
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: go with Paul Thomas Anderson for Sunday. Bell Fast is
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: one of those movies where I was talking to our
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: mutual friend and Hollywood stalwart Isabel Gomez yesterday. Yeah of course, yeah, genius. Yeah,
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: we were talking about Belfast and because why I talk
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: about work. I was like, Belfast is the movie that
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: I've tried to watch my wife, and I've tried to
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: watch a thousand times, but it's just so seemingly only
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: ninety minutes. Chad. I mean, come on, you know, but
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: every single time, it's like we settle on a movie
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: like Marry Me instead because it's just lighter and happier,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: and we're just not in the mood. Well, the funny
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: thing about Belfast, I can't take credit for this joke,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: but a lot of I've talked to another podcaster out
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: there who she very funnily said Belfast is just like
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: Kenneth Brownna being like, guess what my parents were smoking hot,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: like like the gasting in that movie, or just like,
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: look at my gorgeous father and my gorgeous mother and
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: look at them dance and sing to each other, like
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: you must have had a very beautiful family, Keneth Brauna,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: My parents did not look like that, alright. Best adapted screenplay,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Power the Dog plus one thirty Coda is the leader
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: in the clubhouse at minus one forty lost Daughter plus
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: six hundred u Dune plus and then Drive My Car
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: is sneaking in the middle of there. Plus this is
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: another codea versus Power of the Dog. And this is
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: a category where when you know, if Coda wins this one,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: it's going all the way. If Power of the Dog
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: wins this one, Power Are the Dog is probably going
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: all the way. And you have to look for these
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: kind of momentum turns. I think cod is gonna win.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Shawn Heater, who my colleague represents and another client of
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: mine's working with on a TV show, She's a wonderful filmmaker.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: You know, this is the only way to give her
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: an oscar on Sunday. She was not nominated for Best Director,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: and she's not part of the producing team for CODA,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: So like, this is how to give her a statue.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: And Jane Campion is going to get her statue with
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: Best Director. And I think that the Power of the
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: Dog book was complicated material to adapt. But like when
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: I watched that movie, I did not come away thinking
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: about the script. I came away thinking about the direction,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: about the photography, and about the music, which is nominated
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: for cinematography and music, and it could win those categories.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: So I would go with CODA. I think Coda is
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: gonna win. I hope. So it's very interesting because of
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: all the other categories Code is in, it's still plus
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: money to bet on Coda. This is the only one
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: where the momentum has kind of swung and made Coda
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: the prohibitive favorite. All right, yeah she she won the
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: w J Award on Sunday, which can be a pretty
• 37:20
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• 39:13
  Speaker 1: a quick round of trivia. We promised people we would test,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: although you did prove many times throughout the podcast. You're
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: completely obsessive, maybe unhealthy knowledge of the major categories in
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: history and the nominees and the winners for the Oscars,
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: but for the Academy Awards presented in two movies. Exactly
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: who were the Best Picture nominees and who won Best
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: s Ficture nominees for the Academy Awards. Movies were Raiders
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Are The Lost Ark directed by Steven Spieldberg. On Golden
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: Pond directed by Mark Rydell Reds directed by Warren Beatty Um,
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: Chariots of Fire directed by Hugh Hudson who was not
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: nominated for Best Director, and Terence Fire was the Best
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Picture and the last nominee. And I've seen anyone was
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: Atlantic City directed by Louis mall or Molly and I'm
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: mispronouncing his native French director Chariots of Fire. One that
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: is sick. There are correct on all the nominees and
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: the fact you pulled Atlantic City out and saved it
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: for the end. That's some real show bizz chops right there.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: Sign up, Thank you, ask question number two. The Academy
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: is present in two thousand two. Who were the Best
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Actor nominees and who won? Okay, that's so that's for
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: the movies of two thousand and one. The winner was
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: down to Washington for Training Day. Also nominated was Tom
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: Wilkinson for In the Bedroom, and then the other three
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: nominees were Russell Crowe for Beautiful Mind. Beautiful Mind one
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: best Picture that year. So that's three and the other two.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: Have to think real quickly, I mean, I know, I
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: know these, um I have to like keep running it.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: So you've got Tom Willginson for In the Bedroom, Watchington
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: wins for Training Dave, Oh, excuse me, Will Smith for Ali,
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: So that's four now, and then the fifth point of
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: Seawan Penn for My Aunt Sam. So those were the
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: five nominees. I don't think John Penn. John Penn did
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: not come. I think he left early, so they had
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: to like put his picture up at the thing. John
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: Penn won two years later in two thousand three from
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: Mystic River, and then he wanted two thousand and eight
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: from Milk. So he's won the Best Actor Oscar twice
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: and he was first nominated for Dead Men Walking, which
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: is an incredible movie, incredible performance, and he was no
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: mean again in ninten nine for Sweet and Lowdown, a
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Woody Allen film. Dead Man Walking was an amazing, unbelievable
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: Susan Sarandon one Best Actress for that. Tim Robbins, who
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: was her husband the time, was nominated for Best Director.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: That was a cool moment because Tim Robbins, for your listeners,
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: was just the picture from Bull Durham and of course
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: Andy Dufraine from Shoshank Redemption. And then he directed a movie.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: It was his second movie he had directed, and that
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: movie is a masterpiece. I loved that movie. Final question,
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: what best picture winner from the nineteen nineties? So films
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: released nine nine has the lowest score on Rotten Tomatoes
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: today Tomato meter, Tomato meter, Okay, interesting, So let's just
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: we gotta go through the list, and I have to
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: think about this. Nineties Dancers of the Wolves salam Is
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: ninety two is Unforgiven any three sh There's list ninety
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: fourst Forest comp ny five is Brave Heart, ninety six
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: is the English Patient, ninety seven is Titanic ninety Shakespeare
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: and Love ninety nine is American Beauty. Okay, those are
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: the winners. Based on those winners, I would think I
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: would think that it is Shakespeare in Love or American Beauty.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: And so my final answer is going to be I
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: think it would be Shakespeare in Love. That's my answer.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Not even close. Forrest Dump, for sure is that seventy
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: Braveheart is it seventy eight? But that also could be
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: people just you know, being Sickamore Gibson, English Patient eighty six,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: Titanic American Beauty both tied at eighty seven. I'm sorry,
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: Dances with Wolves is at eighty three. Then Findler's list
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: is number one. Uh, Silence and the Lambs and Unforgiven
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: both tied at number two. The Forrest Gump thing makes
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: sense because I mean, I love Forrest Gump. I I
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: famously saw that movie twice the same day and open.
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: I saw it at noon and I saw it seven o'clock.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: I was so transfixed by it. But I now remember
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: Forrest Gump. There was a lot of people in the
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: nineteen four who thought that movie was just like so
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: stupidly like hollow, you know, just like like that that
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: that was a bit of a divider when some people
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: just were transfixed by it, like myself who was fifteen,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: and some people thought it was just silly, like just gibberish,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: you know, and I'm just going through history and having
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: all these you know, and oh now Jenny has aids
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: and you know, all the stuff that it was kind
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: of coded for. But I love Forrest Gump. That that
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: year is one of the best Oscar years ever because
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: you've got uh Pull Fiction, Forrest Gump, Shoshank, Redemption and
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: then Forwardings in the Funeral and Quish or the five nominees.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, three of those nominees are all time classic movies.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: So I mean I was bum pull Fiction didn't win
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Best Picture, but Garantino did win his first Oscar for
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: writing it with Roger Avery, so that was you know,
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: that was the spreading it around. But that that was
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: the year that Zamchis Robert Zemeckis who greaded Forrest Scump.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, that was kind of his year, and I
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: think Forrest Gump won seven Oscars. I stand by Forrest Gump.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: I love Forrest Gump, Love Forrest Gump, great movie true story.
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: Quiz Show was shot on my block on the Upper
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: West Side of Manhattan. The summer I moved to New
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: York and my wife later became Rob Morrow's architect. Oh wow,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: that's very ironic. I mean Quiz Show for all your listeners,
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: because that's not a movie that has survived, you know,
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: in the last twenty five years that people well, I mean,
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's a heavily watched film. It is
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: an absolute masterpiece. UM. I was turning a class at
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: USC when I was in film school where that movie
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: was broken down and like the production design, the costume design.
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: Because for your listeners at home, the movie has three
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: lead actors and John Taturo plays this like rumpled you know,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: jewish guy from Brooklyn who's on the quiz show. Raye
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Finds is the like waspy guy you know who's from
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: this upper crust family Charles and Burn and then Robin
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: Morrow is kind of in the middle and he's like
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: the investigator of the quiz show scandals. And if you
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: go back and watch that movie, the way they dress
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: each character, the way their apartments look, the way they
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: shoot each character. Robert Redford directed that. He was nominated
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: for Best Director. It's an amazing, amazing movie, um, and
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: a really interesting look at a thing that happened these
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: quiz show scandals in the so it's definitely worth becking out.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: All right, this was a really a lesson and I
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: feel completely and totally prepared to bet on all these
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: categories for the Oscars and for anyone who needs even
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: more Oscars talk that goes even deep into more categories.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: You would not believe what our Action Network experts can
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: dig up. Check out the Action Network podcasts this week.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Michael Askar again really one of the forty most powerful
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: people incommodating according to the Hollywood Reporter, and definitely the
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: most powerful person from Hollywood on this podcast from Mosaic
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: the Management Company. You are an Oscar savant. You've given
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: us a real gift today. Thank you for joining. For
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, for producer Extraordinaire Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Milman.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: This has been the Favorites. Download us from Spotify from
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Apple Podcast rate review, subscribe, give us five stars, say
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: anything you want feedback as a gift. Until next time,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: I love you.