Latest / Decision Desk HQ Podcast / Episode 34: What NYC's Primaries Can Tell Us About Democrats in 2028, with Michael Lange of The Narrative Wars

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Episode 34: What NYC's Primaries Can Tell Us About Democrats in 2028, with Michael Lange of The Narrative Wars · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

• 0:00
  We're at the heart of an AI proxy war here in New York 12 and
• 0:04
  Anthropic is funding
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_02: a large super PAC that's pro Alex Bores,
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_02: whereas like OpenAI is funding a large one that's like against.
• 0:12
  The issues and rifts in each of these races are also likely to
• 0:16
  affect Democrats in
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: the 2028 presidential primary.
• 0:18
  This is kind of your poster child for the young college
• 0:22
  educated renter class that
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: is remaking the Democratic Party,
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_02: at least in urban centers across the country.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Decision Desk HQ Podcast.
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  I'm your host,
• 0:44
  Geoffrey Skelley,
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  the Chief Elections Analyst here at DDHQ.
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  SPEAKER_01: This coming Tuesday,
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  SPEAKER_01: four states hold their regular primaries,
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  and among the most watched contests will be a collection of
• 0:55
  Democratic races in New
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  SPEAKER_01: York City proper.
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  that feature major ideological splits and or highly salient
• 1:01
  issues that could say
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  as much about Democrats looking ahead to 2028 as they do about
• 1:05
  2026 right here and
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  SPEAKER_01: now.
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  SPEAKER_01: Two open seats have attracted a number of major candidates.
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  SPEAKER_01: In the Brooklyn- and Queens- based 7th District,
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  a clash between a Democratic Socialist and a Progressive has
• 1:18
  split the left in a
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  SPEAKER_01: race to succeed longtime representative Nydia Velázquez.
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  In the Manhattan based 12th District,
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  views on AI have helped shape the contest
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  SPEAKER_01: to follow another longtime member, retiring Representative Gerald Nadler.
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  SPEAKER_01: Meanwhile,
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  Democratic Representatives Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat
• 1:35
  face serious primary
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  SPEAKER_01: challenges from their left with issues such as Israel,
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  SPEAKER_01: the influence of AIPAC,
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  and even the ability to appeal to more moderate Black voters
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  likely to determine
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  SPEAKER_01: who will win those races.
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  SPEAKER_01: More broadly,
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  the issues and rifts in each of these races are also likely to
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  affect Democrats in
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  SPEAKER_01: the 2020 presidential primary.
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  and to talk about all this I'm excited to have Michael Lange
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  back on the podcast
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  Michael is a New York City based writer researcher strategist
• 2:03
  and political
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  organizer who writes a great Substack on New York politics from
• 2:06
  the left called the
• 2:07
  narrative wars most recently put together a great overview of
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  these four races that
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  we're going to talk about and what they could say about both
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  2026 and 2028 so with
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  that Michael welcome back to the Decision Desk HQ podcast no
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  thanks for having me
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  SPEAKER_02: it's great to be back
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_01: No,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: I wanted to have you on ahead of the New York contest,
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  knowing that there were these these interesting New York City
• 2:31
  based races.
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  And then you wrote this really great piece sort of outlining
• 2:36
  how these these races
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  SPEAKER_01: could matter for not just 2026,
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  SPEAKER_01: but also 2028.
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  so just to sort of jump into it I thought we would we would
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  start with that first
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  race I mentioned which is the seventh congressional district
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  and you know this
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  is this is a race where you've had Nydia Velázquez in you know
• 2:59
  running I guess
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  SPEAKER_01: things there for a long time and she, the two candidates that are sort of
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  SPEAKER_01: battling it out here
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  SPEAKER_01: are Claire Valdez,
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  SPEAKER_01: who I believe is a member of the State Assembly,
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  SPEAKER_01: and Antonio Reynoso,
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  SPEAKER_01: who is the Brooklyn Borough President.
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  SPEAKER_01: Correct.
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  SPEAKER_01: And so it seems like the potential conflicts here is,
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_01: these are both very left-leaning candidates.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's just
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  one is maybe more in line with sort of a progressive view of
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  things and then one is
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  even to the left of that where Valdez is a democratic socialist
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  so I guessed and
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  this is all taking place as you note in your piece in very much
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  an area that
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  includes some of I think where where Mamdani was was strong in
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  the “Commie Corridor”
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  SPEAKER_01: yes so I guess
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  sort of could you break that down for us like what what's going
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  on in this
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  particular contest yeah for sure I mean you know to to again
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  for giving you of a
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  more national audience I would say that this is somewhat of an
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  outgrowth of Sanders
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  versus Warren in 2020 with of course its own local urban spin
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  on it um Antonio
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  Reynoso is the Brooklyn borough president he's formerly a city
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  council member from
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  SPEAKER_02: um
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  some parts of this district I mean he has quite a progressive
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  record he himself
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  he's only 42 years old but he's been in politics for a long
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  time he's supported of
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  course by Velázquez,
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  he's supported by the Working Families Party they're a very
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  progressive third party that has a real base in New York State
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  and New York City
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  and he's supported also by like a lot of organized labor unions
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  and also kind of
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  SPEAKER_02: non-profits and again this district has kind of been the poster child of
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  um hyper gentrification in North Brooklyn and western Queens
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  the last the last 10
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  or 20 years I would say um but again it it its roots trace back
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  again to 1992 when
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  uh this district was created um under the Voting Rights Act to
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  empower um Hispanic
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  constituencies which led to Nydia Velázquez's election um she
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  actually famously
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  SPEAKER_02: defeated
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  a very well known national democrat named Steven Solarz who
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  ironically was a big
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  SPEAKER_02: supporter of foreign intervention and of course the state of Israel.
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  He was kind of like the original pro-Israel democrat to lose to
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  a more progressive challenger.
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  SPEAKER_02: On the other side, you have Claire Valdez.
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  SPEAKER_02: She's,
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  SPEAKER_02: of course,
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  SPEAKER_02: supported by New York City Democratic Socialists of America chapter,
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  SPEAKER_02: mayors around Mamdani,
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  SPEAKER_02: Bernie Sanders,
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  SPEAKER_02: and the United Auto Workers.
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  SPEAKER_02: So in some ways,
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  SPEAKER_02: she has a lot of big national names in her coalition,
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  SPEAKER_02: in addition to,
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  SPEAKER_02: of course,
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  SPEAKER_02: Mamdani and DSA,
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  who respectively have a discernible base of younger voters in
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  this district as
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  SPEAKER_02: well.
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  SPEAKER_02: But again, the fault lines of this primary are quite
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  Interesting and they don't I don't think it'll necessarily
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  bleed on ideological
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  lines explicitly I think it will bleed a lot on age lines this
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  is for context the
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  youngest congressional district in America or certainly has the
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  youngest electorate
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  for my money it has the most left leaning electorate of any
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  district in the
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  SPEAKER_02: country.
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  And I believe it's in the top two or three in terms of highest
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  percentage of tenants as well.
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  So this is kind of your poster child for the young college
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  educated renter class
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  that is remaking the Democratic Party at least in urban centers
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  across the country.
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  SPEAKER_01: Well, thank you.
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  SPEAKER_01: That's such a great overview.
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  SPEAKER_01: I guess when you're thinking about the youth vote,
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  SPEAKER_01: I know you mentioned in your piece,
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  SPEAKER_01: one of the things that Mamdani was able to do was activate,
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  I think you called it almost like a sleeper constituency that
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  has traditionally,
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  SPEAKER_01: as we know,
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  SPEAKER_01: there is an age curve to turn out in elections.
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  Younger voters tend to be less engaged and less likely to turn
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  out on average than older voters.
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  SPEAKER_01: Uh,
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  SPEAKER_01: but Mamdani,
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  SPEAKER_01: at least in his mayoral campaign managed to,
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  SPEAKER_01: to really activate,
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  SPEAKER_01: uh,
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  SPEAKER_01: a large younger voter constituency.
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  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you would call it a youth constituency,
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  SPEAKER_01: but,
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  SPEAKER_01: uh,
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  SPEAKER_01: maybe an under 30 kind of constituency.
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  SPEAKER_01: And so,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: looking ahead,
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  SPEAKER_01: uh,
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  SPEAKER_01: I guess to you,
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  SPEAKER_01: if you're thinking about this race,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: we have limited polling,
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  SPEAKER_01: uh,
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  SPEAKER_01: obviously there are other,
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  SPEAKER_01: there are other candidates in the,
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  SPEAKER_01: in the race,
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  SPEAKER_01: for example,
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  SPEAKER_01: like Julie Won.
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  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, the winner of this might have just a plurality, uh,
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  but I guess if you were sort of thinking about it right now
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  from just sort of uh
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  is there any sense of a favorite at all in this race you know I
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  think so for a
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  long time um I probably would have said that Claire Valdez is
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  the favorite I
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  SPEAKER_02: expected this race to to narrow I would say um
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  you know or basically Reynoso has a lot of institutional
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  advantages and I thought
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  that would kind of carry him to some degree of lead especially
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  early on I thought
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  the race would narrow which it did I mean it's basically been
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  this race has been
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  statistically tied for months again according to some public
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  and also you know a
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  handful of internal polls that have trickled out but I think
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  the thing is is that I
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  SPEAKER_02: expected Claire Valdez towards the end to pull away just again given
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  the Mamdani effect New York City DSA is a very vaunted get out
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  the vote operation
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  things like that and that hasn't quite happened and we're
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  talking about young
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  voters being the sleeping giant in the Democratic Party and you
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  know your point
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  about the youth is fair but if you're in a Democratic primary
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  if you're under 50
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  you're a young voter in my eyes for sure no it's fair it's fair
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  no great I'm you
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  SPEAKER_01: know I'm a young voter because I'm over 30 you are a young voter 100%
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  So far though I mean we've had a couple days of early voting
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  and granted younger
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  voters do traditionally vote a little later except last year in
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  New York 7 a lot of
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  young people were going to the polls early anyway fast forward
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  to this year and
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  like youth voter turnout I'm not sure when this will air or if
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  it will have changed
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  you know by the time we record versus when it airs but the
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  youth voter turnout
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  SPEAKER_02: is like quite lackluster I would say
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  and that was kind of what I foreshadowed somewhat in that piece
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  I wrote comparing
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  it to 2028 was like if you don't have this big galvanizing
• 9:29
  movement figure person
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  on the ballot what does younger voter participation look like
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  because Mamdani
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  running here in this district last year compared to the
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  previous mayoral primary
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  which again was super competitive turnout district wide went up
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  50 percent and in
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  SPEAKER_02: some places it went up
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  SPEAKER_02: 60, 70, 75% compared to four years prior.
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  But,
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  you know,
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  so clearly,
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  again,
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  the Sleeping Giant thesis was activated.
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  SPEAKER_02: But it's like,
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  SPEAKER_02: can some of this transfer,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  and I think that that's really the big question for Mamdani and
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  New York City DSA
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  SPEAKER_02: is like,
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  SPEAKER_02: a lot of their I mean,
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  SPEAKER_02: for as powerful as they are,
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  a lot of their power is also predicated on can the coalition
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  transfer to other
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  candidates to the next cycle to the next candidate to the next
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  set of circumstances
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  and this is a really fascinating case study into that and so I
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  would really say
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  that right now this race is a coin flip in my opinion well you
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  mentioned of course
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  SPEAKER_01: in your piece you mentioned a name that you know
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  SPEAKER_01: Americans are increasingly familiar with which is of course Alexandria
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  Ocasio-Cortez and you know is she the sort of figure you know
• 10:48
  clearly she's there
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  there are some signals that she is thinking about running for
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  president in 2028 and
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  if you're thinking about who could potentially sort of activate
• 10:57
  that constituency
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  SPEAKER_01: in the way Mamdani did but perhaps beyond New York obviously
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  I'm curious for your thoughts on Ocasio-Cortez as that figure I
• 11:08
  100% think that she
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  would be the type to be able to do this type of thing with
• 11:16
  respect to changing the
• 11:17
  electorate changing the percentage of young people who
• 11:20
  participate but my in that
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  SPEAKER_02: argument or in that article
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  my question was also like if she does not run this is kind of
• 11:28
  like the you know
• 11:29
  like a preview of like when you don't have the big figure like
• 11:32
  what does it look
• 11:33
  like what is part you know what do all those things look like
• 11:37
  and I think there's a
• 11:38
  real question where again if she decides not to run can anybody
• 11:43
  else comparably
• 11:45
  spur up that degree of voter turnout or anything like that and
• 11:51
  I think that's a
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_02: real open question it's one that the party's going to have to reckon with
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
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  SPEAKER_01: because thinking about,
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_01: again,
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_01: the demographics of this district a little bit,
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think it helps people.
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  SPEAKER_01: You talked about the gentrification.
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  I think originally it was basically around when it was drawn
• 12:07
  back in the 90s.
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  SPEAKER_01: It was,
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: roughly a 50% Latino district,
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  SPEAKER_01: maybe even a little bit more than that for the voting age population.
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  But now it's basically a little more than a third non-Hispanic
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  white and a little
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  SPEAKER_01: more than a third Latino.
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  SPEAKER_01: And so...
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  the district has changed in various ways and I didn't know if
• 12:32
  does that inform I
• 12:34
  mean I guess at the end of the day the two leading candidates
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  are both of Hispanic
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  origin so at the end of the day maybe this is still a district
• 12:41
  that's going to end
• 12:42
  up in Latino hands but maybe this actually leads me to a
• 12:44
  follow-up question which
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: is and I don't know how much you can speak to it but
• 12:50
  obviously with all the redistricting stuff going on and the
• 12:53
  prospect that that
• 12:54
  might be something comes into play and ahead of uh 2028 in New
• 12:58
  York as well I was
• 12:59
  just curious for your thoughts on on what does that do to seats
• 13:05
  like this and what
• 13:06
  potentially and what are the sort of conversations about that
• 13:09
  in a place like
• 13:10
  New York because obviously this is a thing with Democrats are
• 13:13
  particularly worried
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_01: about potentially you know
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the Congressional Black Caucus worried about that.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_01: But also they're wanting to win seats and there's concern,
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: about sort of gerrymandering against each other,
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: the Democrats versus Republicans.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_01: And I was just kind of curious because this just reminded me,
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_01: if that I don't know if that's actually something that's come up a lot in
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: conversations in New York,
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: but obviously,
• 13:43
  there is a push now to to pass potentially a constitutional
• 13:46
  amendment that would
• 13:47
  allow for the legislature to redraw in New York yeah so I can
• 13:52
  speak to a couple
• 13:52
  things um just first and foremost you're right about the census
• 13:56
  top lines of this
• 13:56
  district it's now plurality white um around a third Hispanic
• 14:01
  now the literal lines
• 14:02
  of this district have changed a decent bit in 30 years but the
• 14:06
  core of Williamsburg
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_02: Bushwick um
• 14:10
  you know particularly South Williamsburg which again had a home
• 14:15
  to a long-standing
• 14:16
  Puerto Rican population there's some of those bones remain but
• 14:20
  I think the real key
• 14:21
  thing is like don't look at the census numbers look at the
• 14:23
  electorate and this
• 14:24
  district consistently has a 50% plus white electorate and a
• 14:29
  Hispanic electorate
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_02: that's kind of in the low to mid 20s and
• 14:34
  and I think that will have a pronounced effect on how the
• 14:37
  candidates perform yes
• 14:38
  they're both Hispanic but again Reynoso with Velázquez’s
• 14:42
  support with I would say
• 14:44
  longer ties in the district and in many of the neighborhoods he
• 14:48
  will do better with
• 14:49
  older voters particularly older voters of color whereas Valdez
• 14:52
  is very much trying
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_02: to squeeze as much under 35 under 49 support um
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_02: as possible.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 15:00
  this is a race that I think will index heavily on age more so
• 15:06
  than almost any other
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_02: variable.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_02: In terms of the 2020 redistricting,
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_02: again,
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know how many of your viewers are from New York,
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_02: but I need folks to try and pull up a map of New York State,
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_02: like picture in your head.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_02: The state kind of bottlenecks.
• 15:21
  I mean,
• 15:21
  you have Long Island,
• 15:22
  it leads into New York City,
• 15:23
  and then it goes farther up.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_02: Unless you wanted to like do an absurd gerrymander,
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_02: which I don't think they really will,
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_02: you can gerrymander the Staten Island seat,
• 15:32
  but a district like this is not going to get all of a sudden
• 15:35
  drawn out into Suffolk
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_02: County,
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_02: which is the eastern tip of Long Island.
• 15:40
  So I actually think that the core New York City districts for
• 15:42
  the most part will
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_02: not change that much.
• 15:45
  if you have a district say in eastern Queens particularly
• 15:48
  southeast Queens that
• 15:49
  again has a very large,
• 15:51
  very Democratic-leaning Black population those districts
• 15:55
  could probably be extended into Long Island and something like
• 15:58
  that and same thing
• 15:59
  with you know like you could have you know some of the
• 16:04
  Westchester,
• 16:05
  the Hudson
• 16:05
  Valley districts could get reconfigured and also you can have
• 16:08
  some of the upstate
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_02: metro areas change
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_02: But ironically,
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_02: just given the state's shape,
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_02: districts like the 7th,
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_02: in my opinion,
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_02: are not poised to change dramatically in the coming years.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, for people watching, I have...
• 16:24
  brought up a map from Dave's Redistricting App of the of the
• 16:28
  bottleneck as you
• 16:29
  put it which currently is the 16th district is sitting on the
• 16:33
  bottleneck basically
• 16:34
  but you could you know you could split that to some extent but
• 16:37
  it gets you know it
• 16:38
  was it would be interesting um just from you know thinking
• 16:41
  about gerrymandering uh
• 16:43
  you know do you get really interesting with water contiguity
• 16:47
  you know you know
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_01: contiguous districts across water
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean, you know, just Long Island Sound or whatever, you know.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_02: So in 2022,
• 16:57
  the New York Democratic Party wanted to draw the third district
• 17:00
  over the Long
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_02: Island Sound into parts of Westchester.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_02: You also had the 11th district,
• 17:04
  which is primarily Staten Island Bay seat was drawn up to
• 17:07
  include Park Slope.
• 17:09
  I think if they didn't again they might draw it into Lower
• 17:12
  Manhattan instead do
• 17:14
  like the Staten Island Ferry contiguous route but there are
• 17:16
  ways to basically you
• 17:18
  know really imperil someone like Nicole Malliotakis in a blue
• 17:23
  wave year while also
• 17:24
  shoring up a Tom Suozzi or a Laura Gillen and then but there
• 17:29
  are also ways to again
• 17:30
  tinker with Districts 1 and District 2 or you can do like you
• 17:35
  can pack a lot of
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_02: Long Island Republicans into one of the two
• 17:40
  eastern districts and then have the other one be like you know
• 17:43
  a harris plus eight
• 17:44
  seat or something like that so they're certainly looking at
• 17:48
  that but again just the
• 17:49
  the shape of the district unless they did something again truly
• 17:53
  that you could only
• 17:53
  do on a place like dave's redistricting bacon-manders you know
• 17:58
  yeah right exactly
• 18:00
  um the districts like the seventh are probably pretty secure
• 18:04
  yeah they won't change
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_01: too much um
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: Cool.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_01: Well, okay.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_01: So that was a nice place to start.
• 18:14
  I think maybe where we should shoot over from here would be the
• 18:19
  10th District,
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: which is next door.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_01: And this is also kind of in a particularly strong Mamdani area.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_01: I think the thought was Dan Goldman, who's the representative from here,
• 18:32
  uh was vulnerable potentially to a challenge from his left and
• 18:35
  he's gotten that
• 18:36
  challenge uh in the form of Brad Lander who uh was was city
• 18:40
  comptroller if I'm not
• 18:41
  mistaken uh and has essentially become part of Mamdani's
• 18:46
  administration and is
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_01: is you know
• 18:50
  basically from the yeah his network and so there was a thought
• 18:53
  that he would run
• 18:53
  here and then he he has so uh Goldman I think is in a fair
• 18:58
  amount of trouble is
• 18:59
  sort of oh I mean the way things are looking this is a pg
• 19:03
  podcast but he's you know
• 19:07
  ff you there's a word f yeah yeah yeah for sure yeah no he's I
• 19:11
  mean Emerson had him
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_02: down 34 points granted
• 19:15
  34 points I'm probably taking the under on that but like no
• 19:18
  he's he's going to lose
• 19:20
  barring something catastrophic this is for your listeners this
• 19:24
  is like a reverse
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_02: Bowman-Latimer.
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_02: Latimer beat Bowman because Latimer had a view with respect to
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_02: Israel and Palestine that was more commensurate with his district, namely
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_02: Westchester County,
• 19:40
  had longer way longer institutional relationships in the
• 19:45
  district itself versus,
• 19:48
  again,
• 19:49
  Bowman was in Congress for two terms just like Dan Goldman is
• 19:53
  and again had
• 19:56
  trouble really making inroads politically with institutions in
• 19:59
  Westchester County
• 20:00
  yeah and he first got there he first got there winning you know
• 20:03
  a divided primary
• 20:05
  and well I mean also you know it was but had a lot of his own
• 20:09
  personal wealth
• 20:11
  Right right right Dan Goldman yes and also Bowman's district
• 20:14
  was redrawn this
• 20:15
  district has not been it was always like Dan Goldman kind of
• 20:18
  snuck in here and it
• 20:19
  was like well will he be able to adapt to kind of change and
• 20:23
  now he's running
• 20:24
  against someone who I mean yes like finished third place in the
• 20:27
  mayoral yes was
• 20:28
  just the comptroller but Brad Lander particularly on the
• 20:31
  Brooklyn side where 55 to
• 20:32
  60 percent of the vote comes from has been a real staple of
• 20:36
  these communities for a
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_02: long time and again he's very progressive and
• 20:40
  again the Brooklyn side specifically this is kind of like No
• 20:44
  Kings New York,
• 20:46
  you
• 20:46
  know,
• 20:46
  Park Slope,
• 20:47
  Carroll Gardens,
• 20:48
  and then also you have some Commie Corridor
• 20:50
  adjacent precincts in Sunset Park things like that and Dan
• 20:55
  Goldman has just
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_02: shown that that
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's to put it lightly he has been indifferent to the plight of
• 21:04
  Palestinians I think he you know again he was taking AIPAC
• 21:09
  money basically up until
• 21:10
  this year and this is a very progressive constituency and so he
• 21:16
  kind of made
• 21:17
  his bed and now he has to lie in it he did not support Mamdani
• 21:20
  in the primary did
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_02: not even vote for him in general election
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_02: And it's just,
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_02: well,
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_02: a lot of people in your district like Mamdani,
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_02: they like Brad Lander, they think his positions on,
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_02: they think Goldman's positions on Israel are just incompatible with,
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_02: again,
• 21:36
  kind of where they want the Democratic Party to be It's worth
• 21:39
  noting that this is
• 21:39
  one of also the most Jewish districts in the country and
• 21:43
  they're about to vote out
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_02: The representative, for among many reasons his support for AIPAC.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_02: Granted,
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_02: this is a younger,
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_02: more cosmopolitan,
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_02: progressive Jewish electorate,
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_02: but still,
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_02: this is significant.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_02: I feel bad when we talk about all these races.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_02: I have the least to say about New York 10 just because the outcome is,
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_02: in my opinion,
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_02: the most decided of any of the four house seats in the city.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_01: No, no worries.
• 22:13
  I think it's worth noting that Goldman may have thought he had
• 22:17
  an out when there
• 22:18
  was that court case dealing with the Staten Island District and
• 22:21
  the possibility
• 22:22
  that they might redraw that seat to be Staten Island plus the
• 22:27
  lower part of
• 22:28
  Manhattan or a lower part of Manhattan and Goldman could have
• 22:33
  run there and it
• 22:35
  would have been a light blue seat like Harris plus three plus
• 22:39
  four or something and
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_01: that could have been his out.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_01: That did not happen.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_02: No, I think you're right.
• 22:44
  I think retrospectively his career ended the second they nixed
• 22:51
  that decision.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_02: 100%.
• 22:55
  Because I do think he would have won that seat in a midterm
• 22:58
  environment like what we're seeing.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_02: But he didn't.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_02: So...
• 23:03
  or but he wasn't given the chance to and so I think now the die
• 23:07
  has kind of been
• 23:07
  cast and it's just a question of what the margin of defeat will
• 23:11
  be for him so I
• 23:13
  guess thinking in that in that way maybe we could talk a little
• 23:17
  bit about how you
• 23:18
  view the role of AIPAC and sort of the you know the left of the
• 23:25
  Democratic
• 23:26
  Party's position on that and how that could have obviously
• 23:30
  ramifications for 2028
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_01: we're already seeing
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_01: you know notable politicians breaking with AIPAC who you know may have
• 23:37
  presidential ambitions you know someone like Illinois Governor
• 23:40
  JB Pritzker or Gavin
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_01: Newsom of course folks who may have previously taken money from AIPAC or
• 23:48
  were more associated with the Israel lobby in the US but have
• 23:53
  now you know
• 23:53
  started to distance themselves more because this has become
• 23:56
  such a potent issue in
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_01: in Democratic politics yeah I mean I think again
• 24:02
  AIPAC amongst Democratic primary voters not just in New York
• 24:06
  has really become
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_02: persona non grata.
• 24:09
  I do think that even though you have a couple politicians who
• 24:12
  are like oh we're off
• 24:13
  of it now I still think past associations particularly again in
• 24:17
  2024 and in 2025
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_02: will still hurt someone in 2028.
• 24:24
  I think if you're younger voters you know who care a lot about
• 24:28
  this issue you're not
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_02: You're not going to really be fooled by someone who,
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_02: again,
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_02: multiple years into an ethnic cleansing in Gaza then says,
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_02: oh,
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_02: AIPAC not taking the money,
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_02: Netanyahu bad all of a sudden,
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_02: because they've read some polling.
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think people will be moved by that.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_02: But I think honestly,
• 24:50
  maybe even the bigger story is just the role of AIPAC money in
• 24:54
  these elections
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_02: through all the shell PACs.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, that was a huge thing in Illinois.
• 24:59
  AIPAC is now doing a lot of shell PACs for Adriano Espaillat
• 25:03
  I'm not sure if they are
• 25:03
  for Dan Goldman ironically because he's so underwater but
• 25:07
  they're just like yeah
• 25:09
  they're just like we're not gonna we're not gonna spend for him
• 25:13
  um but that's also
• 25:14
  I guess he does have personal wealth I think he just loaned his
• 25:16
  campaign a couple
• 25:17
  million more or something which is I mean I don't know like
• 25:21
  from what I understand
• 25:22
  like if you loan your campaign money if you win you can just
• 25:25
  fundraise it back and
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_02: you can even like
• 25:27
  Charged interest or whatever there are campaign finance systems
• 25:31
  broken but if you
• 25:32
  lose like it's kind of gone you know so exactly yeah I think
• 25:36
  he's you know I'm not
• 25:37
  going to shed a tear this is probably why we got to tax the
• 25:40
  rich a little more
• 25:41
  right because you know he clearly has some money to spend
• 25:44
  anyway um but yeah the
• 25:47
  the pro-Israel lobby clearly knows that their money is becoming
• 25:50
  toxic in these
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_02: primaries so it's like well
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_02: We're just going to form these shell PACs,
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_02: pump in a couple million,
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_02: same day it's created,
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_02: after the disclosure deadlines,
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_02: and then people won't know,
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_02: and there's no way to know.
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_02: Like,
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_02: again,
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_02: with Espaillat,
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_02: they've been doing it for weeks,
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_02: so there is some degree of a paper trail,
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_02: and they're not really hiding it also,
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_02: because they,
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_02: yeah,
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_02: we'll go to 13,
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_02: because
• 26:17
  the Democrats in his district who are already pretty woke on
• 26:19
  AIPAC don't like him
• 26:21
  but I mean it is a very working class constituency so I think
• 26:24
  they're just like
• 26:25
  we'll take the drop site news fallout piece and we'll deal with
• 26:29
  it but it's not but
• 26:31
  they'll just trade it for carpet bombing the electorate with
• 26:34
  advertisements things
• 26:35
  like that yeah we can shift over to the 13th yeah let's go to
• 26:39
  the 13th yeah yeah so
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_01: yes this is now this is a
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_01: As you mentioned,
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_01: this is a district that actually has a narrow Latino majority,
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: even among the voting age population.
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, the electorate may only be plurality.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I got some numbers on the electorate that will be surprising.
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, yeah, fun.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_02: Yep, 100%.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_02: So, I mean, again, so just to foreground...
• 27:05
  Incumbent Adriano Espaillat he's been there for 10 years this
• 27:09
  is a guy who I mean he
• 27:10
  succeeded Charlie Rangel yeah yeah yeah let me all um I can I
• 27:15
  can fast forward in
• 27:16
  that so for a long time Harlem which is kind of the center of
• 27:20
  the district was like
• 27:21
  the center of African-American,
• 27:22
  Black political power in the country but since the
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_02: 1960s kind of the neighborhoods north of Harlem
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_02: Washington Heights, Inwood, and now parts of the West Bronx.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_01: Literally, there's a musical, The Heights, you know?
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 27:34
  I've seen a lot of Dominican immigrants because the immigration
• 27:38
  laws changed and
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_02: also there was a big civil war in the Dominican Republic.
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_02: Adriano Espaillat is like the Dominican political trailblazer.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_02: He was at one point undocumented.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_02: He's the first formerly undocumented person to be in Congress.
• 27:54
  he built a you know again a Dominican political machine
• 27:58
  starting in Inwood,
• 27:59
  then in
• 27:59
  Washington Heights basically brick by brick from scratch that
• 28:03
  that then carried him
• 28:04
  slowly all the way up to the point where then he was running
• 28:07
  against Charlie Rangel
• 28:08
  for this congressional district twice because the district it
• 28:12
  doesn't look as it
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_02: does the way now but it looks similar it was redrawn in 2012 to again
• 28:18
  taken a lot more Hispanic voters things like that he runs
• 28:21
  against charlie wrangle
• 28:22
  it's basically a Dominican versus Black war essentially as
• 28:27
  those are the two
• 28:28
  constituencies it's incredibly contentious he loses to Rangel
• 28:32
  narrowly twice then
• 28:33
  when Rangel retires because Rangel was you know he was getting
• 28:37
  older he had some
• 28:37
  health issues he had some ethics issues as well he retires,
• 28:41
  Espaillat narrowly beats
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_02: his protege
• 28:44
  and then he's just been in Congress for 10 years and fast
• 28:49
  forward 10 years later
• 28:50
  right you have this district the lines have changed as well
• 28:54
  it's it's gone a tiny
• 28:55
  bit farther south to include neighborhoods like Morningside
• 28:58
  Heights which is
• 28:58
  Columbia University and a couple blocks to the Upper West Side
• 29:01
  as well you've also
• 29:02
  seen younger people you know priced out of other parts of the
• 29:06
  city young college
• 29:07
  educated progressive people finding an affordability refuge in
• 29:11
  parts of Upper
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_02: Manhattan there are also um
• 29:14
  older No Kings progressive liberal constituencies that live
• 29:19
  along— there's a bunch
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_02: of beautiful parks in Upper Manhattan, they kind of live along there.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_02: This district
• 29:25
  now the Democratic electorate is like 35% Hispanic,
• 29:27
  30% white,
• 29:27
  27% Black,
• 29:28
  so if you’re
• 29:31
  Adriano Espaillat and you have spent basically your entire
• 29:34
  career trying to maximize your
• 29:36
  Hispanic vote like he’s never gotten over 50% in any of the
• 29:40
  times he ran for
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_02: Congress, it was all about how do I maximize my block
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_02: And then that'll get me more votes than the African American block.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_02: Now, that block is like a third of the vote.
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_02: So he's now having to go hat in hand to Black power brokers,
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_02: Black institutions in Harlem and say,
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_02: hey,
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_02: I've never really needed your votes before,
• 29:59
  but I need them now because the white folks in my district are
• 30:03
  not really going to
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_02: vote for me because I'm a machine politician.
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_02: I take money from AIPAC.
• 30:08
  You know I'm just I'm not really leading on a lot of the issues
• 30:11
  that they care
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_02: about I vote for the big spending bills that have ice etc etc I'm not I'm
• 30:16
  insufficiently progressive and it sets up a fascinating
• 30:21
  coalitional battle epic
• 30:27
  whatever you say because he's being challenged by Daria Liza
• 30:30
  Avila Chevalier who's
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_02: also Dominican you know like Columbia graduate student she's 32 years old
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_02: She's really leaned heavily into Palestine and into ICE.
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_02: And he's in real danger of
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_02: losing.
• 30:45
  There have been some polls that have been leaked that have him
• 30:48
  down four or
• 30:50
  up eight I think,
• 30:51
  it's probably somewhere in the middle I think he probably has a
• 30:54
  SPEAKER_02: narrow-ish lead
• 30:56
  but it's very clear that this guy has like a decided ceiling
• 30:59
  it's just a question
• 31:01
  of can a first-time candidate who does have some real ie
• 31:04
  support and support on the
• 31:05
  ground can she blow through that ceiling when she's also being
• 31:08
  hit with um seven
• 31:11
  figures worth of negative spend you know basically imputing her
• 31:15
  character for old
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_02: tweets you know she said things like eff Kamala Harris um
• 31:21
  you know she she called you know she she said some things that
• 31:24
  I think now she's
• 31:25
  like I deeply regret um but again when you play those ads over
• 31:30
  and over again in
• 31:31
  front of a senior audience even if they don't like Adriano
• 31:34
  Espaillat they might
• 31:35
  still cast a vote for him or they'll stay home so we'll see
• 31:39
  it'll be really
• 31:40
  SPEAKER_01: interesting so thinking about sort of I mean obviously there's
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think the way you described it in your piece was,
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 31:48
  is it something of like a left insurgency and then questions
• 31:52
  about winning over
• 31:54
  Black voters who are have tended to be a more moderate
• 31:58
  constituency within the
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_01: Democratic Party and but also very committed to the Democratic Party.
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: and extremely reliable,
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_01: the most reliable part,
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_01: basically,
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_01: of the Democratic Party's coalition nationally,
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_01: not just in New York.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_01: And so thinking about what this could say about looking ahead to 2028,
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_01: I think for Democrats,
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_01: one of the challenges for them in presidential races has been,
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_01: obviously,
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_01: Barack Obama had extremely good
• 32:30
  turnout among Black voters and obviously won over a
• 32:33
  particularly large share of
• 32:34
  them not everyone is Barack Obama obviously and even Kamala
• 32:38
  Harris was not able to
• 32:39
  really juice up turnout all that much um even though she is uh
• 32:44
  you know of Black
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_01: origin um and so I guess thinking about for Democrats and
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_01: the potential that they could end up nominating someone on the left.
• 32:55
  SPEAKER_01: And that being a challenge for parts of the left,
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_01: we've seen Bernie Sanders obviously struggle in his presidential bids,
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_01: winning over Black voters.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_01: Looking ahead,
• 33:08
  is there something we can take away from this potentially for
• 33:11
  thinking about if AOC
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_01: were to run or the challenges,
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_01: I guess,
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_01: for the left looking ahead to 2028 in a Democratic primary context?
• 33:21
  I mean I think it's just one more data point of many and I do
• 33:25
  think that this
• 33:26
  election is relatively well teed up for Darializa to make at
• 33:30
  least some pronounced
• 33:31
  inroads with Black voters again because the Black voters of
• 33:34
  Harlem they're most the
• 33:37
  vast majority are renters this congressional district is more
• 33:40
  renters than anywhere
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_02: in the United States for instance and the age distribution is relatively
• 33:47
  even and friendly to a progressive this is not southeast Queens
• 33:51
  or Canarsie where a
• 33:52
  lot of the Black population is much older or co-op city or
• 33:55
  something like that you
• 33:56
  know this is she's the opportunity to even if she struggles
• 34:00
  amongst older Black
• 34:01
  voters to make real inroads with younger Black voters and turn
• 34:04
  them out because
• 34:05
  again Mamdani won this district by 20 points he did quite well
• 34:10
  all throughout
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_02: Harlem
• 34:11
  his only real weakest point was with the oldest kind of block
• 34:15
  of Black voters 65%
• 34:17
  in the primary things like that he did really well with younger
• 34:20
  Black voters
• 34:21
  turning them out things of the like so I would I don't know how
• 34:26
  Darializa will do
• 34:28
  but I think it's set up almost as well as you could hope for
• 34:32
  her to like do do
• 34:34
  well and then potentially win because her her viability will
• 34:38
  come down to how she
• 34:40
  SPEAKER_02: performs
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_02: Among the Black constituency in this district,
• 34:44
  SPEAKER_02: which,
• 34:44
  SPEAKER_02: again,
• 34:45
  has been quite skeptical broadly of Adriano Espaillat for the
• 34:49
  last decade plus.
• 34:52
  SPEAKER_01: Fascinating.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 34:54
  the sort of how the national and even international issues are
• 34:57
  playing into
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_01: affecting,
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_01: creating
• 35:03
  fractures and different coalitions within the Democratic Party
• 35:06
  potentially but
• 35:07
  then obviously the sort of local machinery because s by yacht
• 35:10
  has this so such a
• 35:11
  long history um I don't know the interplay of that stuff is is
• 35:16
  really fascinating
• 35:17
  um well hey let's let's jump down south of there to your 12
• 35:22
  baby the 12th district
• 35:24
  uh um which is uh somewhat different uh but this is Jerrold,
• 35:29
  Jerry Nadler,
• 35:30
  long
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_01: time member is retiring
• 35:33
  uh and this district is open and it seems like there's about 39
• 35:37
  candidates I'm only
• 35:38
  roughly exaggerating there uh and we actually even have a
• 35:41
  polling average of this
• 35:42
  race uh yeah right because we have enough polls to do that um
• 35:46
  we haven't had a new
• 35:47
  poll though uh come out in a little bit one released publicly
• 35:51
  yeah but but this
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_01: kind of speaks to it uh which is uh you have uh two members of the state
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_01: assembly Alex Bores and Micah Lasher
• 36:01
  uh who are who are clearly among the chief contenders and then
• 36:04
  you have Jack
• 36:04
  SPEAKER_01: Schlossberg who is a member of the Kennedy family something of a Gen Z, I
• 36:10
  think,
• 36:10
  or is he technically millennial he's like kind of on the
• 36:12
  borderline I think
• 36:12
  he's a millennial he's like the same age as Iran or okay well
• 36:15
  they're younger there
• 36:16
  you go there you go he's a younger millennial uh who's who's
• 36:19
  made his name as sort
• 36:20
  of a political commentator online and various things and then
• 36:23
  George Conway
• 36:25
  SPEAKER_01: the Republican former you know the ex-husband of Kellyanne Conway who was
• 36:30
  who you know has been a longtime advisor to President Trump uh
• 36:34
  Republican turned
• 36:34
  Democrat who essentially is running to say like I want to lead
• 36:37
  impeachment efforts
• 36:38
  against against Trump um among other things um so fascinating
• 36:43
  uh four candidates
• 36:44
  and that you know yeah just it seems like it's a mess um but
• 36:48
  there are things there
• 36:48
  are larger takeaways but I was sort of curious for your initial
• 36:51
  thoughts on the
• 36:52
  SPEAKER_01: state of play in in that race
• 36:55
  yeah so again um this race will come down to Micah Lasher and
• 36:59
  Alex Bores I mean
• 37:01
  we've gotten more polling I think since then that Schlossberg
• 37:05
  is kind of fading you
• 37:06
  know he he you know he there was a period and I think March and
• 37:10
  April where where
• 37:11
  he had like a 21 percent plurality you know it was like oh you
• 37:16
  know but he not to
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_02: be uncharitable but I think
• 37:21
  his candidacy was always destined to have run into some bumps
• 37:26
  the more exposure it
• 37:27
  got as a friend of mine says like you have to he got a lot of
• 37:31
  eyeballs on him but
• 37:32
  you have to convert the eyeballs to voters and in a district
• 37:35
  like this there's just
• 37:36
  a lot of emphasis on substance and things like that and him on
• 37:40
  a stage next to two
• 37:42
  really accomplished brilliant state legislators there was
• 37:46
  always kind of like a
• 37:49
  a details gap I would say and I and his polling has decreased
• 37:54
  noticeably in the
• 37:56
  last month or so so you have Alex Bores who is,
• 38:01
  you know,
• 38:01
  the candidate of
• 38:04
  of Anthropic but also you know the enemy of OpenAI,
• 38:09
  sorry just to cut in for
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_01: folks just their AI is a central feature of this district
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_01: and that thinking about what will matter in 2028 I mean we're already
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_01: seeing you know all the conversations about
• 38:23
  AI and related things like data centers becoming more and more
• 38:26
  of an issue
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_01: nationally, so you know that this is going to be a major topic.
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_01: So yes, please from there, elucidate the sort-of fault lines
• 38:36
  SPEAKER_02: We’re at the heart of an AI proxy war here in New York 12, and again,
• 38:41
  Anthropic is funding a large super PAC that's pro Alex Bores
• 38:45
  whereas like OpenAI is
• 38:47
  funding a large one that's like against it's like wow and so
• 38:50
  originally I from what
• 38:51
  I understand it's called leading the future they were like
• 38:54
  we're going to target
• 38:55
  Alex Bores because as a state legislator he passed like one of
• 38:59
  the only AI
• 39:00
  regulation bills in the country and I think like you talk to
• 39:03
  experts they're like
• 39:04
  SPEAKER_02: well the guardrails are like relatively modest it was not like
• 39:08
  you know it was nothing it wasn't shutting down the industry
• 39:11
  right because then of
• 39:12
  course like Anthropic probably wouldn't want to support him um
• 39:17
  and he has become
• 39:19
  him and his AI proxy battle it is like centered him in the race
• 39:24
  to an extent where
• 39:25
  at the beginning this was always kind of Micah Lasher's race to
• 39:29
  lose he Jerry
• 39:30
  SPEAKER_02: Nadler who's the outgoing congressperson supported him
• 39:33
  a lot of the politicians on the Upper West Side of Manhattan
• 39:36
  support him,
• 39:36
  the Upper
• 39:37
  West Side is the highest Democratic turnout area,
• 39:40
  is the most institutionally
• 39:42
  cohesive,
• 39:43
  he's kind of the favorite son over there and it was just it was
• 39:47
  like
• 39:47
  his race to lose Bores is cleverly even if you don't care about
• 39:52
  AI he's kind of
• 39:53
  SPEAKER_02: said
• 39:53
  well these Trump mega donors are funding this AI thing and they
• 39:58
  don't want me in
• 39:59
  and he's basically in in some respects similar to how
• 40:02
  pro-Israel spending has
• 40:04
  become scandalized and polarizing he has tried to polarize this
• 40:08
  electorate which
• 40:09
  again is very wealthy I would say one or two congressional
• 40:13
  districts in the country
• 40:14
  in terms of wealth super well educated a lot of boomers a lot
• 40:18
  of folks in the
• 40:18
  SPEAKER_02: silent generation
• 40:21
  SPEAKER_02: to polarize them against this big AI spending and been like,
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_02: these folks want to keep me out of Congress,
• 40:26
  SPEAKER_02: et cetera,
• 40:27
  SPEAKER_02: et cetera.
• 40:28
  SPEAKER_02: And it's worked to the extent that now,
• 40:30
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 40:30
  SPEAKER_02: with a week left,
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_02: it's seen as like kind of a toss up in a really live race where,
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_02: again,
• 40:36
  SPEAKER_02: structurally,
• 40:36
  SPEAKER_02: he was disadvantaged to some extent at the beginning of the race.
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_02: But so he's kind of like he's nationalized this to some degree,
• 40:47
  SPEAKER_02: and he's kind of the more national candidate,
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_02: whereas Lasher
• 40:50
  I think is more of the local candidate he's got more of the
• 40:54
  local institutions
• 40:55
  behind him he again is like a very policy wonk guy but like
• 41:01
  Alex Bores is going on
• 41:02
  Ezra Klein he's getting these favorable New York Times op-eds
• 41:09
  he's someone where if
• 41:10
  he were to win this seat he would become one of the new faces
• 41:13
  of the Democratic
• 41:14
  Party in my opinion almost overnight but that might not be
• 41:18
  enough in a district
• 41:20
  like this where again this is like the last place in my opinion
• 41:23
  where Democratic
• 41:25
  institutions really still matter and still kind of have muscle
• 41:28
  and things like that
• 41:31
  and again for as much as Manhattan is known for culture and
• 41:37
  media and a place of
• 41:40
  where all these famous people live and still things like that
• 41:42
  the politics here is
• 41:44
  SPEAKER_02: again still very
• 41:46
  SPEAKER_02: work your way up it's not actually super hospitable to outsiders as Jack
• 41:50
  Schlossberg is finding out as is George Conway is finding out
• 41:54
  and I would also
• 41:55
  expect that because this race will increasingly be framed as a
• 41:58
  two-person race the
• 42:00
  vote shares of Schlossberg and Conway will will really I don't
• 42:04
  want to say collapse
• 42:05
  but they will diminish significantly because people widely see
• 42:09
  the races as a
• 42:10
  SPEAKER_02: choice between the top two
• 42:12
  or at the very least they won't really increase and they will
• 42:15
  stay in that vicinity
• 42:16
  whereas Bores and Lasher will get more of the vote than they're
• 42:21
  than they're
• 42:21
  getting for instance in the average that we had in the last
• 42:24
  poll in that average
• 42:25
  was from mid-May so you know it's been a bit um so to your
• 42:29
  point I suspect that
• 42:30
  they have probably would if we had newer fresher polling would
• 42:33
  would have risen a
• 42:34
  SPEAKER_01: bit uh as a result of this sort of uh duality of the contest um
• 42:41
  I guess thinking about so just to maybe close out here thinking
• 42:45
  about AI in the
• 42:47
  context of uh 2028 I and thinking about Democrats you know it
• 42:53
  does seem like look
• 42:54
  we have a lot of polling on public attitudes across the country
• 42:58
  toward AI now and
• 43:01
  it does seem like there is a fair amount of skepticism like
• 43:04
  bipartisan skepticism
• 43:06
  but democrats are even a bit more skeptical and negative toward
• 43:10
  it so I was curious
• 43:11
  how you think um you know obviously you know if Bores were to
• 43:19
  come out and win
• 43:20
  despite all this opposition from AI money I'm curious what you
• 43:24
  would you would take
• 43:24
  SPEAKER_01: from that when thinking about sort of
• 43:28
  SPEAKER_01: the party's attitudes toward AI and what you might hear candidates like
• 43:32
  Ocasio-Cortez say about AI when we get into like a presidential
• 43:37
  contest I think
• 43:39
  even if he loses there's still so much to take from this
• 43:42
  because the whole point of
• 43:43
  why he's been able to make this race competitive is because of
• 43:46
  AI and I think
• 43:47
  people are really they're worried especially young white collar
• 43:52
  workers right like
• 43:53
  AI is like a top five you know among all my normie friends who
• 43:56
  I went to college
• 43:56
  SPEAKER_02: with
• 43:57
  top three issue maybe top one frankly and I think the spending
• 44:03
  from the AI
• 44:04
  oligarchs it's a very clean narrative and people don't like it
• 44:07
  they've not you know
• 44:09
  they've not gone to the lengths of other industries to describe
• 44:11
  their money yet I
• 44:12
  think the salience of it will only increase over the next two
• 44:15
  years and people are
• 44:16
  SPEAKER_02: hungry not just I think for like some serious regulation but like for the
• 44:21
  SPEAKER_02: politicians to get the sense that oh someone understands this new
• 44:26
  This new existential technology that I myself am worried about
• 44:31
  and also probably
• 44:32
  SPEAKER_02: don't understand.
• 44:33
  SPEAKER_02: Projecting an understanding of it is really important.
• 44:37
  I'm sure there will be there will be probably Democrats on the
• 44:41
  other side of this
• 44:42
  SPEAKER_02: issue who are like,
• 44:43
  SPEAKER_02: oh,
• 44:43
  SPEAKER_02: I could get a really nice OpenAI pro-IE behind me,
• 44:47
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 44:48
  SPEAKER_02: but I do think the party base across all ages is like
• 44:53
  you know um you know it's funny I went to college with a guy
• 44:56
  who lives in Nassau
• 44:57
  County right and he's like your your typical swing voter type
• 45:00
  of guy and he just
• 45:01
  said the other day he's like who asked for any of this like the
• 45:05
  AI right like and
• 45:06
  it look it helps me code but he's kind of right and I think a
• 45:10
  lot of people feel
• 45:10
  that way and that's like a cross-partisan thing it's like who
• 45:14
  who asked for all
• 45:16
  SPEAKER_02: of this that's gonna just be so disruptive to life um
• 45:21
  SPEAKER_02: And so,
• 45:21
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 45:22
  SPEAKER_02: AI might be the number one issue of the 2028 Democratic primary,
• 45:27
  SPEAKER_02: genuinely,
• 45:28
  SPEAKER_02: because this is just,
• 45:30
  SPEAKER_02: it's so at the tip of the spear.
• 45:31
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, think about where we were last year.
• 45:34
  SPEAKER_02: We were not discussing this as an electoral issue,
• 45:36
  SPEAKER_02: and now AI is war for the,
• 45:39
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 45:40
  SPEAKER_02: the wealthiest,
• 45:42
  SPEAKER_02: most media-centric,
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_02: educated district in America,
• 45:45
  SPEAKER_02: and it's just,
• 45:46
  SPEAKER_02: it's only going to spread.
• 45:48
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 45:50
  so I think that folks could probably learn a lot from this race
• 45:55
  and the Alex
• 45:55
  Bores candidacy win or lose um I think it's just a preview of
• 45:59
  what's to come well
• 46:03
  that's uh that's great I wanted to ask you one more thing which
• 46:06
  was are there any
• 46:07
  other uh contests I guess you are you wrote about these four
• 46:11
  and I think these are
• 46:12
  the four you know big ones in New York City,
• 46:14
  I was curious if there were any others
• 46:15
  SPEAKER_01: sort of in New York City in the metro area that you were uh
• 46:20
  SPEAKER_01: interested in or thought could be more interesting than we anticipate.
• 46:26
  I mean,
• 46:26
  yeah,
• 46:26
  I taped a podcast the other day where they were asking me about
• 46:29
  New York 17.
• 46:30
  SPEAKER_02: That's the Democratic primary Sure,
• 46:32
  SPEAKER_02: that's a big one,
• 46:33
  SPEAKER_02: yeah Mike Lawler Yeah,
• 46:35
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 46:35
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 46:35
  SPEAKER_02: and it was like,
• 46:36
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 46:36
  SPEAKER_02: basically the two leading candidates.
• 46:39
  SPEAKER_02: .There's a third progressive,
• 46:40
  SPEAKER_02: but she's kind of in a distant third.
• 46:41
  SPEAKER_02: The two leading candidates are like
• 46:43
  SPEAKER_02: center-left,
• 46:44
  SPEAKER_02: moderate-ish.
• 46:45
  SPEAKER_02: But like one of them,
• 46:46
  SPEAKER_02: Cait Conley,
• 46:47
  SPEAKER_02: is like the DCCC, all the national groups support me,
• 46:51
  but I don't— And she like used to be like a military contractor
• 46:57
  or something,
• 46:57
  there's
• 46:58
  SPEAKER_02: some stuff going on
• 47:00
  I'm not totally blown away by the charisma to be honest but
• 47:03
  then the other
• 47:04
  candidate is like Beth Davidson,
• 47:06
  she's like a Rockland County mom like was in the
• 47:08
  SPEAKER_02: Rockland County Legislature right.
• 47:10
  SPEAKER_01: That's a very local elected yeah right so this is
• 47:13
  another one where it's like the national groups really like
• 47:16
  somebody and of course
• 47:17
  SPEAKER_02: like
• 47:17
  Cait Conley does have some local support things like that but
• 47:20
  like her campaign was
• 47:21
  like originally misspelling some of the towns in the district
• 47:24
  you know and like she
• 47:25
  just moved back to run her launch video was filmed in like her
• 47:29
  home gym in Virginia
• 47:31
  like that type of thing right where it's like but Davidson's
• 47:33
  like I'm here I know
• 47:35
  what's going on I'm not going anywhere and I think in so many
• 47:38
  of these primaries
• 47:39
  there's like the national angle versus the local angle so I'm
• 47:43
  gonna be honest I'm
• 47:44
  SPEAKER_02: not gonna pretend like I have any clue who's gonna win
• 47:47
  SPEAKER_02: But I think it'll be a really interesting outcome either way.
• 47:50
  SPEAKER_02: And we'll set up a fascinating duel with Mike Lawler come November.
• 47:58
  SPEAKER_02: So, yeah.
• 48:01
  yeah well obviously um that that is gonna definitely be one of
• 48:05
  the most watched
• 48:06
  contests uh in the country in November and then so it'll be
• 48:10
  interesting to see sort
• 48:11
  of the how much that local I you know I I think I have a
• 48:16
  tendency to wanna to if I
• 48:18
  had to like bet and I don't actually bet on elections just to
• 48:21
  be clear uh that
• 48:23
  would be bad for me uh to to do given what I do professionally
• 48:26
  um but if I you
• 48:29
  SPEAKER_01: know
• 48:30
  SPEAKER_01: had to bet on candidates.
• 48:31
  SPEAKER_01: I tend to look at sort of electeds.
• 48:34
  SPEAKER_01: There still is a candidate quality thing there.
• 48:36
  SPEAKER_01: They're more familiar to people.
• 48:38
  They've got a built in,
• 48:39
  a lot of times they've got built in constituencies.
• 48:42
  SPEAKER_01: They've had people who are sort of validators for them,
• 48:45
  SPEAKER_01: who they've worked with,
• 48:46
  who can go out into the community and people know these people
• 48:49
  who say like,
• 48:50
  SPEAKER_01: oh,
• 48:50
  SPEAKER_01: you should vote for this person because they've done X,
• 48:54
  SPEAKER_01: Y,
• 48:54
  SPEAKER_01: and Z for our community or something.
• 48:56
  SPEAKER_01: Whereas if you're someone coming in who doesn't have that,
• 48:59
  SPEAKER_01: uh it can be a little harder at the same time though we've seen outsiders
• 49:02
  increasingly win primaries and this started out more on the
• 49:06
  Republican side uh
• 49:08
  to a higher degree but it has caught up a bit on the Democratic
• 49:10
  side and so it'll
• 49:12
  be fast that'll be a fascinating test of that I think uh in the
• 49:15
  17th yeah cool a
• 49:18
  lot of those teams playing out across New York 100 percent 100
• 49:22
  percent um maybe not
• 49:24
  SPEAKER_01: to Jack Schlossberg's uh liking uh the way things are shaping up but um
• 49:29
  uh uh but you know we'll probably hear from him again he's a
• 49:33
  young guy uh you know
• 49:35
  in fact that'll be interesting I mean that's another one of
• 49:37
  those things right is
• 49:38
  that sometimes you run for something because you figure well I
• 49:42
  might be able to win
• 49:43
  but even if I don't I'm in the future perhaps I could make
• 49:47
  another bid do something
• 49:48
  SPEAKER_01: else for a few years come back have another shot be more well known have
• 49:52
  SPEAKER_01: established myself a little bit more
• 49:54
  SPEAKER_01: and be able to win.
• 49:54
  SPEAKER_01: Never underrate that as a component of candidate thinking.
• 49:59
  SPEAKER_01: But anyway, Michael, this has been great.
• 50:01
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you so much for helping us with this overview.
• 50:03
  I hope it elucidated some of the cool things that are happening
• 50:07
  and fascinating
• 50:08
  SPEAKER_01: things that are happening within the Democratic Party in New York City,
• 50:11
  but also how there is going to be some application and
• 50:14
  understanding of how these
• 50:15
  SPEAKER_01: things are breaking down in New York City.
• 50:19
  SPEAKER_01: They could have
• 50:20
  uh greater application to thinking about what's happening in
• 50:23
  the Democratic Party
• 50:24
  writ large uh ahead of the 2028 presidential primary especially
• 50:28
  given the fact that
• 50:29
  you know there's a decent chance that someone like Alexandria
• 50:32
  Ocasio-Cortez might
• 50:32
  run and she's right in the mix of this as a you know a member
• 50:36
  of the New York City
• 50:37
  congressional delegation uh and is up close and personal with
• 50:41
  this stuff so uh
• 50:43
  this has been this has been really great so thank you so much
• 50:45
  for coming on oh it's
• 50:46
  SPEAKER_01: my pleasure uh thanks for having me great to be back
• 50:50
  again this is Michael Lange the author of the narrative wars on
• 50:54
  Substack I highly
• 50:54
  recommend you go check that out and you can find him in other
• 50:59
  places I think you
• 51:00
  were quoted in a New York Times article recently about the race
• 51:04
  so really getting
• 51:05
  some great analysis of what's going on in New York and the
• 51:08
  Democratic Party more
• 51:09
  broadly here so I'm Geoffrey Skelley the Chief Elections
• 51:13
  Analyst here at Decision
• 51:14
  Desk I want to thank Stephen Stover and Eric Cunningham for
• 51:17
  their help with this
• 51:17
  SPEAKER_01: episode and
• 51:20
  I also want to say just to close out that if you have any
• 51:25
  questions that you might
• 51:26
  be interested in having me answer I'm planning to do a mailbag
• 51:29
  a solo mailbag
• 51:30
  episode for my next podcast or for the next Decision Desk HQ
• 51:34
  podcast so if you have
• 51:36
  some questions please send those along you can either comment
• 51:40
  on the on theSubstack
• 51:41
  page comment on YouTube when we'll have it posted there you can
• 51:46
  also email me at
• 51:48
  SPEAKER_01: media at
• 51:52
  and I will be uh happy to to consider your questions so uh with
• 51:56
  that Michael
• 51:57
  SPEAKER_01: again thank you so much and uh I'll see folks next week