Latest / The Vault: The Epstein Files / A Sitting President, an Alleged Forgery, and No Investigation

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A Sitting President, an Alleged Forgery, and No Investigation · The Vault: The Epstein Files

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: What's up everyone and welcome to another episode of the
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Epstein Chronicles. Ever since the Wall Street Journal reported that
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump sent a birthday greeting to Jeffrey Epstein, Donald
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Trump has denied that that letter or note was ever
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: sent by him. And if that's true, then where did
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: this letter come from? And even more importantly, is somebody
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: trying to frame the president? In this episode, we're going
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: to talk a little bit more. about the alleged birthday
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: note that Donald Trump sent to Jeffrey Epstein. When we're
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: talking about the birthday message, the central issue is not
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: merely whether that message attributed to Donald Trump is genuine,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: but whether the administration's response is consistent with its claim
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: that the document was fabricated. The message appeared in a
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: birthday album reportedly assembled for Jeffrey Epstein's 50th birthday in 2003,
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: and later obtained from Epstein's estate by congressional investigators. Trump
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: has denied writing, signing, or drawing the message and has
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: repeatedly described it as fake. The White House has likewise
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: treated the document as another political and media attack against
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: the president. Yet calling the document fake is not the
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: same thing as demonstrating that it was forged. A forgery
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: of this magnitude would represent far more than an inaccurate
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: newspaper story or an embarrassing political prank. It would mean
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: that somebody manufactured evidence to connect a sitting president to
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: the most notorious sex trafficking scandal of the modern era.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Such conduct could potentially involve fraud, identity theft, obstruction, false statements,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: evidence tampering, or a coordinated attempt to manipulate Congress and
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: the public. It would also create an urgent national security
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: and law enforcement question about who possessed Epstein's records and
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: who was altering them. The striking fact is that the
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: administration has generated far more noise about the publication of
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: the message than about identifying the person who supposedly forged it.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: If the document is fraudulent, investigators should begin with the
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: most elementary question, where did it come from? The reported
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: chain of custody does not begin with an anonymous social
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: media account or an envelope mysteriously delivered to a newsroom.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: The message was reportedly contained in a bound album assembled
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: decades ago and eventually produced by Epstein's estate. That chain
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: of custody does not automatically prove Trump authored the message
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: but it makes the forgery theory considerably more complicated. Someone
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: would have needed to create the message, imitate or reproduce
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Trump's signature, place it among authentic contributions, and ensure that
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: it remained undetected for years. Investigators would therefore need to
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: determine when the page was produced, what materials were used,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: and whether it was physically incorporated into the original album.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: They would also need to interview the people who collected
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: the birthday submissions, handled the book, stored Epstein's property, and
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: transferred the material to his estate. Handwriting specialists could compare
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the signature with authenticated Trump signatures from the same period,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: rather than relying upon political spokespeople and television surrogates. Paper, ink,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: printing methods, metadata, fingerprints, and an archival photograph might further
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: establish whether the page originated in 2003 or was inserted later.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: none of those investigative measures require speculation about Trump's guilt
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: or innocence because they are precisely how a serious forgery
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: allegation should be tested. And that's why for me, the
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: White House's failure to publicly demand such an inquiry creates
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: a glaring contradiction in its position. Trump's not alleging that
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: a reporter merely misunderstood a conversation or misquoted a confidential source.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: He is effectively alleging that a physical document bearing his
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: name was manufactured and inserted into the historical record. Presidents
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: have ordered or encouraged investigations over matters carrying far less
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: potential consequence than that. Trump's administration has repeatedly portrayed hostile
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: actions against him as conspiracies, hoaxes, weaponization, or attempts to
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: interfere with the presidency. In this instance, however, the supposed
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: conspiracy would come with an identifiable piece of evidence, a
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: chain of custody, a limited group of possible custodians, and
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: numerous forensic avenues for examination. This should make the alleged
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: defense unusually attractive to an administration that regularly promises to
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: expose wrongdoing against Trump. Instead, the principal response has been
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: political denunciation and civil litigation against the newspaper that reported
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the document's existence. That choice attacks the messenger while leaving
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the alleged fabricator untouched. It also permits the White House
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: to repeat the word fake without submitting the underlying claim
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: to the discipline of an independent criminal investigation. The absence
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: of an aggressive forgery inquiry does not prove authenticity, but
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: it unquestionably weakens the administration's performance of certainty. And the
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal must also be understood
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: for what it can and cannot establish. A defamation complaint
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: is not itself proof that the disputed reporting is false.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Wealthy and powerful people routinely file lawsuits to challenge damaging stories,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: control public narratives, impose legal costs, obtain discovery, and discourage
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: further reporting. Trump's original complaint was dismissed after a federal
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: judge concluded that he had not plausibly alleged that the
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: journal published the report with actual malice. The dismissal did
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: not produce a judicial finding that Trump wrote the message,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: but neither did the lawsuit vindicate his denial. Trump subsequently
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: filed an amended complaint continuing a legal battle that keeps
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: attention focused on the newspaper's conduct rather than on a
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: forensic examination of the document. That distinction is critical because
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: defamation litigation asks whether the publisher acted with a legally
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: required degree of fault. It does not automatically resolve who
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: created the page, when it was created, or how it
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: entered Epstein's birthday album. The Journal's report also disclosed Trump's
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: denial of which makes it harder to betray the publication
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: in an effort to hide his side of the dispute. Consequently,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: the lawsuit may function more effectively as communications and a
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: pressure campaign than a mechanism for determining the document's authorship.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: There is also a practical reason a political figure might
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: prefer litigation to a government forgery investigation. A lawsuit can
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: be shaped, delayed, amended, narrowed, appealed, publicized, or voluntarily abandoned
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: in according to the plaintiff's legal and political calculations. A
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: legitimate criminal investigation is far less controllable once agents begin
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: collecting records, interviewing witnesses, commissioning forensic tests, and documenting their findings.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Such an investigation could confirm the president's account, but it
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: could also produce evidence contradicting it. It might reveal that
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: the page is contemporaneous with the album, that the signature
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: resembles authenticated examples, or that witnesses remember soliciting or receiving
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Trump's contribution. It could require testimony from people connected to Epstein-Maxwell, Trump,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the estate, and the birthday book project. It could also
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: expose additional communication or social interaction that neither the White
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: House nor Trump's attorneys want examined publicly. By contrast, a
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: defamation lawsuit permits Trump to present himself as the injured
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: party while arguing over journalistic standards and legal pleading requirements.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: That does not establish that the lawsuit was filed solely
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: to suppress or delay disclosure, but it explains why litigation
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: may be politically safer than forensic scrutiny. The unanswered question
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: is why a president proclaiming total confidence in his innocence
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: would choose the less conclusive path. Trump's known social relationship
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: with Epstein gives the dispute additional context without proving authorship
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: of the message. The two men move within overlapping social
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: circles in New York and Palm Beach. During the period
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: relevant to the birthday album, Trump publicly praised Epstein in 2002,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: describing him as a longtime acquaintance and commenting on his
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: interest in women. Photographs and video footage have also documented
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: the men attending social events together. None of that proves
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: that Trump participated in Epstein's crimes or composed a disputed
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: birthday greeting. It does, however, make the existence of a
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: birthday contribution less inherently implausible than the White House rhetoric suggests.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: A forged message normally requires an explanation for why the
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: forger selected a particular person, format, tone, and historical setting. Here,
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: the alleged author was someone who undeniably knew Epstein and
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: had publicly spoken warmly about him near the time the
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: album was created. The administration therefore cannot dispose of the
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: document merely by treating any association between Trump and Epstein
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: as an invented political narrative. The historical relationship raises the
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: evidentiary stakes and makes independent authentication more necessary, not less.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: The forgery theory also suffers from an unresolved problem of motive.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Who supposedly created the page and what did that person
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: expect to accomplish by placing it in a private birthday
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: album in 2003? If the document was forged at the time,
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: the forger would have needed to anticipate that Epstein would
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: later become internationally infamous and that Trump would later return
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: to the White House. If it was forged more recently,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: the perpetrator would have needed access to the album or
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: the ability to replace, insert, or reproduce a page without detection.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Either scenario should leave witnesses, documentary traces, physical inconsistencies, or
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: communications that competent investigators could pursue. The White House has
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: not publicly supplied a coherent narrative identifying when the forgery occurred.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: or who had the opportunity to commit it. Instead, the
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: accusation frequently operates as a conclusion that requires no mechanism, culprit,
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: or evidence beyond Trump's denial. Now, that may be sufficient
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: for partisan messaging, but it is inadequate as an investigative explanation.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: A genuine claim of fabrication should become more detailed as
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: evidence is examined, not remain permanently suspended at the level
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: of accusation. Until the administration explains the alleged forgery's origin
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: and mechanics, fake remains a political assertion rather than a
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: demonstrated fact. It's therefore reasonable to consider whether Trump knows
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: the message is authentic and is using legal aggression to
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: create doubt, delay consequence, or intimidate further publication. That remains
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: as an inference rather than an established fact, and I
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: think it's important to label it accordingly. Nevertheless, the inference
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: arises from observable conduct rather than from fantasy. Trump denied
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: the message before the public had access to the entire
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: birthday album, attacked the publisher, filed an enormous lawsuit, and
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: continued litigating after the original complaint was dismissed. At the
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: same time, his administration did not announce a comparable effort
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: to identify and prosecute the alleged forger This imbalance suggests
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: that controlling the story may have received greater priority than
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: solving the supposed crime. Litigation also produces a familiar political
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: image in which Trump appears combative, persecuted, and unwilling to retreat.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Even an unsuccessful lawsuit can serve that purpose by allowing
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: his supporters to interpret adverse rulings as proof of institutional
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: hostility rather than weakness in the claim. The longer the
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: legal dispute continues, the easier it becomes to tell the
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: public that the matter remains unresolved and should not be judged.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: That dynamic does not prove the message is genuine, but
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: it makes the lawsuit entirely compatible with a strategy of
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: delay and narrative management. The administration's credibility is further damaged
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: by its selective approach to allegedly fabricate Epstein material. When
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: federal authorities have concluded that other Epstein-related writings were fraudulent,
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: They have been capable of announcing investigative findings and explaining
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: why the material were considered fake. That demonstrates that the
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: government possesses both the expertise and institutional machinery to examine
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: questioned documents connected to Epstein. The alleged Trump birthday message
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: should therefore be subjected to the same transparent process. Agents
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: could establish provenance, laboratories could inspect the physical page, and
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: independent specialists could compare the handwriting and signature. The results
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: could then be released with appropriate documentation rather than filtered
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: through political press statements. If the page is fraudulent, such
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: an investigation would provide Trump with far stronger vindication than
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: any social media denunciation or civil complaint. If the administration
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: refuses that opportunity, the public is entitled to ask whether
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: officials fear what a genuine examination might uncover. The standard
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: cannot be that Epstein documents are authentic when politically useful,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: and fake whenever they become inconvenient. A government claiming to
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: restore trust must apply consistent evidentiary rules even when the
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: president's reputation is at stake. And when you chop it
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: all up, the administration faces a simple credibility test that
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: no amount of partisan theater can erase. Either the message
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: is a forgery, in which case somebody committed an extraordinary
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: act that warrants a full investigation, or the message is authentic.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: in which case Trump's categorical denials are false. There may
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: be intermediate possibilities involving unauthorized assembly, disputed authorship, or uncertainty
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: about particular elements of the page. Those possibilities also require
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: evidence rather than slogans. What is not persuasive is the
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: current posture of declaring a historic document fraudulent while displaying
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: little apparent urgency about discovering who forged it. The person
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: falsely framing a sitting president through Epstein's private records, would
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: represent a continuing threat to the integrity of government, Congress, journalism,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: and the justice system. No responsible administration would treat such
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: a perpetrator as less important than the newspaper that reported
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: the evidence. Trump's decision to pursue the journal while leaving
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: the supposed architect of the forgery unidentified invites the conclusion
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: that the litigation serves as a strategic rather than truth-seeking function.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: It's possible that the president believes ordinary political combat will
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: create enough confusion that definitive authentication becomes unnecessary. Until Trump
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: demands the forensic investigation that his own accusation logically requires,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: suspicion will remain that he is not trying to expose
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: a forgery, but trying to outrun a genuine document. All
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: the information that goes with this episode can be found
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: in the description box.