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NCAAB Best Bets Monday 2/16/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:01
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
0:06
Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it.
0:08
Speaker 2: Was just complete bullshit. So that's that's what I'm gonna
0:12
Speaker 2: start off this show.
0:13
Speaker 1: Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even know what
0:15
Speaker 1: to tell you above that. I just don't want to
0:18
Speaker 1: do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this.
0:22
Speaker 1: Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a
0:26
Speaker 1: good day at all.
0:27
Speaker 2: Own four that have not had a good season.
0:32
Speaker 1: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
0:35
Speaker 1: slump continues.
0:37
Speaker 2: I've reached a new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn
0:41
Speaker 2: my bruins hat Man. I don't know what is going
0:43
Speaker 2: on with the bruins arch hape. Is that what it is?
0:47
Speaker 2: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
0:50
Speaker 2: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
0:53
Speaker 2: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
0:55
Speaker 2: back with you after the worst day that I.
0:58
Speaker 1: Could possibly have, Back with you as I always am
1:02
Speaker 1: until I die, at least oh and two.
1:05
Speaker 2: Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for me.
1:08
Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
1:12
Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this. I don't know what to
1:14
Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. To the slumpy, praise,
1:17
Speaker 1: the slump, discontinus, the slump continues.
1:20
Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
1:23
Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
1:26
Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's
1:34
Speaker 1: towed back with you, toadsool Sports Monday.
1:38
Speaker 2: I believe it is President's Day.
1:40
Speaker 1: Tyrants stay February sixteenth.
1:43
Speaker 2: Uh, just College of Basketball.
1:46
Speaker 1: As we got hockey in the Olympics getting down to
1:49
Speaker 1: the quarterfinals. Haven't really been paying attention. I know the
1:52
Speaker 1: US and Canada are basically headed for a championship match.
1:58
Speaker 1: It seems like that would be the case. Nothing else
2:01
Speaker 1: to really say about that. NBA still on break until Thursday.
2:04
Speaker 1: I believe we went one to zero on the show yesterday.
2:07
Speaker 1: Tulane had a pretty big lead early in the game.
2:10
Speaker 1: They had a double digit lead in the first half.
2:11
Speaker 1: I think up ten at the half, maybe something like that,
2:14
Speaker 1: and they almost surrendered the lead. Did not surrender it.
2:19
Speaker 1: They won the game outright. It got close at the
2:21
Speaker 1: end of the game. Was a really ugly low scoring game,
2:24
Speaker 1: which is good when you're taking points. And then the
2:26
Speaker 1: end of the game was kind of crazy where UAB
2:30
Speaker 1: attempted a three pointer from the corner that would have
2:32
Speaker 1: tied the game and sent it into overtime, and it
2:36
Speaker 1: went in and out and they got an offensive rebound,
2:39
Speaker 1: but there was no time left and all they could
2:40
Speaker 1: do was just kind of just put it back in
2:43
Speaker 1: for two, which doesn't help because there's no time left
2:45
Speaker 1: at that point.
2:46
Speaker 2: They lose by one. So we got the outright win.
2:49
Speaker 1: By one with Tulane, but that three almost went in
2:52
Speaker 1: and sent the game into overtime, and then I would
2:54
Speaker 1: have been really pissed. I mean, if you have a
2:57
Speaker 1: game where your team is a plus six and a
2:59
Speaker 1: half point favorite and you're winning the game outright.
3:03
Speaker 2: I think it was fifty six to fifty.
3:05
Speaker 1: Three at the time, extremely low scoring game with seconds
3:09
Speaker 1: to go in the game. If that thing goes into overtime,
3:12
Speaker 1: you lose that like that bet that's one of the
3:16
Speaker 1: worst beats imaginable. So luckily that did not happen. We
3:20
Speaker 1: got the outright win with Tulane. That line was actually
3:23
Speaker 1: down to five I think when the game went off,
3:25
Speaker 1: so the line actually moved in my direction more.
3:27
Speaker 2: Than I expected it to. But that was yeah, it
3:31
Speaker 2: was a win. That was good. Kyle.
3:33
Speaker 1: What's up man, Thanks for hanging out. It was yeah,
3:36
Speaker 1: my only game, my only play was a winner. But
3:39
Speaker 1: I did like Rider quite a bit. And I don't
3:41
Speaker 1: think I don't think they covered yesterday, so I don't know.
3:43
Speaker 2: I was.
3:44
Speaker 1: I was on and off with with my opinions on
3:48
Speaker 1: those games yesterday and the game that I watched some
3:53
Speaker 1: of the games. In the later game that I had
3:55
Speaker 1: on Belmont Murray State, that was an insane swing in
3:58
Speaker 1: that game. Murray State was like winning the game by
4:01
Speaker 1: twenty twenty plus, probably somewhere around the middle of the game,
4:05
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, Belmont's within three, and then
4:08
Speaker 1: a couple of minutes later, Belmont's winning the game by
4:11
Speaker 1: double digits. I'm like, this is crazy. Murray State, I
4:14
Speaker 1: think just didn't score like at all in the second half.
4:16
Speaker 1: I don't know what happened to them in that game.
4:19
Speaker 1: That was pretty insane, Tyson, what's up? Thanks for hanging out?
4:24
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into today.
4:26
Speaker 2: It's all college basketball today.
4:28
Speaker 1: We have a couple of games that are up earlier,
4:31
Speaker 1: which I don't really have much of an opinion on these.
4:34
Speaker 1: We have some Southland action today. We have some really
4:37
Speaker 1: bad conferences in action with the MIAC and the SWACK.
4:40
Speaker 1: Don't have a whole lot to say about much of those.
4:42
Speaker 1: I'll talk about the TV games and whatever. There's a
4:44
Speaker 1: little bit of colonial action. There are a couple of
4:47
Speaker 1: big games as well, I think two, and then there's
4:50
Speaker 1: some I don't know Northeast Conference games in here sun Belt,
4:55
Speaker 1: and I think that's basically it today. But the first
4:57
Speaker 1: game up at two pm southeastn Louisiana, East Texas A
5:00
Speaker 1: and M. I don't know if this is a rescheduled game.
5:03
Speaker 1: It might be, it doesn't look like it is because
5:06
Speaker 1: I don't see the postponeman on here. I don't know
5:07
Speaker 1: why it's a two pm game. Southeastern Louisiana just lost
5:11
Speaker 1: to Northwestern State, not exactly a great loss there, and
5:14
Speaker 1: they actually lost at home to East Texas.
5:17
Speaker 2: A and M earlier this year, formerly Texas.
5:20
Speaker 1: A and M Commerce because they're in Commerce Texas. They
5:25
Speaker 1: sounded too capitalists, man, so they had to change their name.
5:30
Speaker 1: Southeastern Louisiana was a four and a half point favorite
5:32
Speaker 1: in that game. So you know what I say when
5:34
Speaker 1: a team loses as a favorite at home in the
5:36
Speaker 1: first matchup, you usually want to look towards them on
5:40
Speaker 1: the road in the second matchup, and they're coming off
5:42
Speaker 1: a loss, that is probably what I would do here,
5:45
Speaker 1: a loss to a not great Northwestern state team. East
5:48
Speaker 1: Texas A and M is not a very good team.
5:51
Speaker 1: They just took a loss to McNeice. They got absolutely destroyed.
5:54
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not really surprised by that because East
5:57
Speaker 1: Texas A and M had had a huge game before
5:59
Speaker 1: that against steven Va, so they just couldn't keep up
6:01
Speaker 1: that amount of effort and Mechnice was coming off a
6:04
Speaker 1: bad performance, so they showed up for that one. I
6:08
Speaker 1: would lean towards Southeast Louisiana and this one. Not a
6:11
Speaker 1: strong opinion, but that's how I would look at it.
6:15
Speaker 1: Eastsex A and M has gone up from one to
6:17
Speaker 1: two and a half. Though some of these initial line
6:19
Speaker 1: moves are not agreeing with me. Although sometimes the initial
6:22
Speaker 1: line move can be like a fake out because the
6:25
Speaker 1: professional betters, they might set some of these numbers up
6:29
Speaker 1: to try to get a better number on their real plan.
6:31
Speaker 2: On the other side, because they know when the lines
6:33
Speaker 2: first come out.
6:34
Speaker 1: I think some of the limits are lower, and they
6:36
Speaker 1: know they could affect the lines. They might come in
6:38
Speaker 1: and actually play the opposite side to what they actually
6:41
Speaker 1: want to drive the number to a better number and
6:44
Speaker 1: then come back and take that number. So some of
6:46
Speaker 1: that could be going on here. I'm not saying that's
6:48
Speaker 1: what's going on in this game. I don't know, but
6:50
Speaker 1: my situational handicap is what gives me that opinion there.
6:55
Speaker 1: Five PM has this isolated game in the Sun Belt
6:57
Speaker 1: between Louisiana formerly Louisiana Lafayette.
7:01
Speaker 2: And Old Dominion. This is not a good game.
7:04
Speaker 1: I don't think these teams have played this year either,
7:06
Speaker 1: so there's no second meeting that we could look at
7:10
Speaker 1: here either. Louisiana just lost at home to Coastal Carolina.
7:13
Speaker 1: It did end a four game win streak for them,
7:15
Speaker 1: so there is the possibility that it hangs them over
7:18
Speaker 1: a little bit. They were a small underdog in that one.
7:21
Speaker 1: Coastal's actually been decent this year, and Louisiana does have
7:24
Speaker 1: a pretty big game on deck against Arkansas State, who
7:27
Speaker 1: I keep saying is good better than the record looks,
7:31
Speaker 1: But I don't know if that's necessarily caused. For a
7:33
Speaker 1: look ahead, it might be because Old Dominion has just
7:36
Speaker 1: been a bad team this year. Man, the record is bad,
7:39
Speaker 1: but they did just get a nice momentum starting win
7:42
Speaker 1: against Georgia State.
7:44
Speaker 2: Georgia State bad team as well.
7:46
Speaker 1: Looking at this game, though, if you look at them,
7:49
Speaker 1: I think the scheduling setups a little bit worse for Louisiana.
7:51
Speaker 1: But if you look at the fact that Old Dominion
7:53
Speaker 1: has the worst conference record, they actually have a worse
7:56
Speaker 1: overall record too, and yet they're laying six and a half.
7:59
Speaker 1: The public's gonna look at that and have no clue
8:02
Speaker 1: why that's the case. But the oddsmakers are telling you
8:04
Speaker 1: Old Dominion is an undervalue commodity, and probably if you
8:08
Speaker 1: look at ken Bam, I'm assuming they're gonna be unlucky. Yeah,
8:10
Speaker 1: they're a bottom twenty team in luck so Old Dominion is.
8:14
Speaker 2: Not really as bad as they look.
8:17
Speaker 1: Louisiana is very bad outside of the top three hundred
8:20
Speaker 1: and ken bomb and they're almost in the top one
8:23
Speaker 1: hundred in luck so even though they are I think
8:25
Speaker 1: the better defensive team somewhat. I would probably lean towards
8:29
Speaker 1: Old Dominion in that one. Laying the points. Just the
8:32
Speaker 1: number looks so misleading, man. But the money looks like
8:35
Speaker 1: it is coming in on Louisiana. For what it's worth,
8:37
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent tickets, seventy three percent of the cash
8:40
Speaker 1: on Louisiana. Do with that information what you want to.
8:44
Speaker 1: I mean, there are some reservations that I would obviously
8:47
Speaker 1: have about old dominion, fact that this game is going
8:49
Speaker 1: to be ugly, probably low scoring points more to a
8:53
Speaker 1: premium a total at one thirty six. And if Louisiana
8:56
Speaker 1: is the better defense getting points, you know, that's something
8:59
Speaker 1: I don't love fading in most cases.
9:01
Speaker 2: So I'm staying away. Garrett twelve and one run.
9:05
Speaker 1: Hell yeah, Prime rib don't don't spend it all in
9:09
Speaker 1: one place, man, grind it out and reinvest it, man.
9:15
Speaker 1: CBS Sports the first TV game at six pm, Colgate
9:19
Speaker 1: at Boston University. Colgate in this one, Man, they're coming
9:24
Speaker 1: off a big game against Navy and they lost that game.
9:27
Speaker 1: I watched the end of that game. It was a
9:29
Speaker 1: close game. I think it went into overtime. Actually that
9:32
Speaker 1: was a big game, man, for both teams. But Colgate
9:35
Speaker 1: really needed that win to stay in the potential running
9:37
Speaker 1: for the Patriot number one seed. And now it looks
9:40
Speaker 1: like they're almost essentially locked into the two seed. Now
9:43
Speaker 1: with that second loss to Navy, that's not good. I
9:47
Speaker 1: don't know Susy first lost to the Navy. They played
9:49
Speaker 1: Navy again at the end of the season, but they're
9:52
Speaker 1: not gonna be able to catch Navy at this one.
9:53
Speaker 1: I don't believe, so Colgate could be in a hangover
9:57
Speaker 1: spot here. They did already beat BU at home, but
10:00
Speaker 1: the problem with that is that Colgate was a pretty
10:02
Speaker 1: big favorite in that game and they only won by one.
10:05
Speaker 1: So when you see a first meeting like that, when
10:07
Speaker 1: the home favorite barely scrapes by, sometimes they will actually
10:10
Speaker 1: take that team seriously in the next game. But again,
10:13
Speaker 1: the problem I have with this is that that was
10:15
Speaker 1: such a big game against Navy, ending a win streak
10:18
Speaker 1: for them, it went into overtime. I think I would
10:21
Speaker 1: have to lean to BEU in this one. BU they're
10:25
Speaker 1: on a four game win streak, you know, just kind
10:28
Speaker 1: of quietly beating some of the bad teams in the conference.
10:31
Speaker 1: But they're at least not one of the absolute bottom
10:35
Speaker 1: dwellers in this conference. Colgate's up from a one point
10:38
Speaker 1: favorite to a two point favorite. I would lean towards
10:41
Speaker 1: taking the points with bu though in that one Seattle
10:47
Speaker 1: was that Seattle versus Oregon State. Yeah, that's a game
10:51
Speaker 1: where Seattle they can't play offense. They're pretty good on
10:55
Speaker 1: defense and not good on offense. In Oregon State, I
10:57
Speaker 1: think it's just an ugly team. I think they're pretty
11:00
Speaker 1: offensively deficient as well. It was probably a low total
11:03
Speaker 1: in that one, right, which usually does indicate that you
11:07
Speaker 1: probably should be looking towards an under. Like low to
11:10
Speaker 1: it's kind of miss It's almost counterintuitive, like when you
11:14
Speaker 1: see a high total.
11:15
Speaker 2: Though.
11:15
Speaker 1: I know I was wrong about the Belmont murray State
11:17
Speaker 1: one because Murray State stops scoring completely in the second half.
11:21
Speaker 1: But when you see like a high total, usually you
11:23
Speaker 1: actually want to look.
11:24
Speaker 2: To go over because it's high for a reason.
11:26
Speaker 1: When you see a low total, usually want to go
11:28
Speaker 1: under because it's low.
11:30
Speaker 2: For a reason.
11:30
Speaker 1: But yeah, and under in that particular game seems to
11:34
Speaker 1: make sense. I mean, that's an ugly, ugly game, all right.
11:38
Speaker 1: Next up is the best bet, my only best bet.
11:40
Speaker 2: Here we go.
11:47
Speaker 1: I do have, you know, maybe one concern about this one,
11:49
Speaker 1: but we are going to take Syracuse. You might be
11:52
Speaker 1: able to find a twenty on this. I saw it
11:54
Speaker 1: pretty much nineteen and a halves out there. I can
11:57
Speaker 1: look right now and see if there are twenties. It
11:58
Speaker 1: does say twenty on the board on pregame, but it
12:02
Speaker 1: looks like it's pretty much just all nineteen and a
12:04
Speaker 1: half's out there right now, So it's dropped a little
12:07
Speaker 1: bit in this direction. Ken Bam, I believe has this
12:09
Speaker 1: number at about nineteen. But this is more of a
12:12
Speaker 1: fade of Duke than it is a play on Syracuse.
12:14
Speaker 1: And I actually don't even necessarily love the spot for Syracuse,
12:18
Speaker 1: but I despise the spot for Duke.
12:21
Speaker 2: So that's why.
12:21
Speaker 1: We're doing this. Duke twenty or nineteen and a half
12:25
Speaker 1: point favorite according to the board here, sixty five percent
12:28
Speaker 1: of ticket, seventy three percent of the cash on Syracuse.
12:30
Speaker 1: I think maybe early on, it's just that the early
12:33
Speaker 1: money is coming in on Syracuse. I expect the public
12:36
Speaker 1: probably comes in on Duke in this game, even though
12:38
Speaker 1: they are laying a lot of points. Duke has not
12:41
Speaker 1: been a covering machine though man. In fact, Duke has
12:43
Speaker 1: been failing to cover in most of their games. I
12:46
Speaker 1: think they landed basically like right on the number in
12:48
Speaker 1: their last game where I lead to Duke in that
12:51
Speaker 1: when Duke was winning that game by twenty plus pretty
12:54
Speaker 1: late in that game against Clemson, but I think they
12:56
Speaker 1: just kind of took their foot off the gas and
12:58
Speaker 1: Clemson back doored it. So sometimes that is a danger,
13:03
Speaker 1: but that would help us in this case because if
13:06
Speaker 1: Syracuse back doors that, we're fine with that because we
13:09
Speaker 1: just needed them to cover this in whatever way they can.
13:11
Speaker 1: We got a low total going on here in this
13:13
Speaker 1: one one hundred and forty two and a half. Duke
13:15
Speaker 1: plays slow, as I keep saying, Yeah, Duke's good on
13:18
Speaker 1: offense and on defense, but they play slow games, man.
13:22
Speaker 1: They play a lot of low scoring games. Syracuse is
13:25
Speaker 1: actually a balanced team as well. If you look at Kenbond,
13:27
Speaker 1: they're not that bad. They're in the top seventy. They're
13:30
Speaker 1: in the top seventy on defense as well. More of
13:33
Speaker 1: a mid tempo team. But they'll probably wind up playing
13:36
Speaker 1: slow because that's what Duke is gonna do. But we're
13:40
Speaker 1: okay with that if we're taking twenty points, man, you know,
13:43
Speaker 1: we're okay with it being a lower scoring game, of course,
13:45
Speaker 1: because that is gonna be a really difficult to ask
13:49
Speaker 1: for Duke to win in a blowout, especially when you
13:52
Speaker 1: see what the spot looks like. So yeah, I don't
13:56
Speaker 1: think I have much else to say about the numbers here.
13:59
Speaker 1: But ken bomb also does have Syracuse pretty unlucky at
14:03
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty six in the country in luck.
14:06
Speaker 1: Duke is in the top one hundred in luck. So Duke,
14:09
Speaker 1: according to ken Bom, is actually overperformed.
14:11
Speaker 2: A little bit.
14:12
Speaker 1: They've actually been sliding a little bit in the offensive rating.
14:15
Speaker 1: They're now barely hanging on to a top ten offensive
14:19
Speaker 1: rating in Kembom's rankings, So all that to be considered there,
14:24
Speaker 1: Duke better on defense and offense, which again is okay
14:26
Speaker 1: when we're fading a team laying a ton of points.
14:29
Speaker 2: This game's on ESPN at seven pm. Now.
14:32
Speaker 1: I do worry a little bit about the spot for
14:35
Speaker 1: Syracuse because I did watch the end of that game.
14:37
Speaker 1: They played an overtime game where they beat cal the
14:40
Speaker 1: game before that, but they did stay at home. But
14:42
Speaker 1: then they had a game where SMU was beating Syracuse
14:45
Speaker 1: for most of that game, not by a lot, but
14:48
Speaker 1: SMU had like a small lead for pretty much the
14:50
Speaker 1: whole game, and then Syracuse won that game.
14:52
Speaker 2: I watched the end of it.
14:53
Speaker 1: And it was kind of an emotional win, and usually
14:55
Speaker 1: I will not want to be on a team after
14:57
Speaker 1: they have an emotional win like that. Syracuse got excited,
15:01
Speaker 1: you know when they won that game. I think SMU
15:02
Speaker 1: missed a shot that could have won them the game
15:05
Speaker 1: at the end if I remember correctly.
15:07
Speaker 2: So it was a close win.
15:08
Speaker 1: It was a win against a decent SMU team that
15:11
Speaker 1: looks to be headed towards the tournament right now. But
15:14
Speaker 1: I just don't see Syracuse overlooking Duke, man. And I
15:17
Speaker 1: know the last time Syracuse went down to North Carolina,
15:22
Speaker 1: they did cover, although they had to make a huge
15:24
Speaker 1: comeback in that game. But that's part of the equation here, man,
15:27
Speaker 1: where if one of these teams just has a huge lead,
15:30
Speaker 1: like North Carolina, Dude, North Carolina just totally took their
15:33
Speaker 1: foot off the gas and started looking towards the next game.
15:36
Speaker 1: And there is definitely that potential with Duke in this
15:38
Speaker 1: game when you see what the schedule looks like. So
15:40
Speaker 1: I don't see Syracuse overlooking Duke here.
15:44
Speaker 2: Duke.
15:45
Speaker 1: They're coming up of a very, very satisfying win against Clemson,
15:48
Speaker 1: and like I said, they were blowing Clemson out of
15:50
Speaker 1: that game. Then won by thirteen, but the game was pretty.
15:54
Speaker 2: Much in hand.
15:54
Speaker 1: And yes, I know that means Duke had to put
15:56
Speaker 1: in less of an effort by the end of that game,
15:58
Speaker 1: but that's.
15:58
Speaker 2: Still when you play.
16:00
Speaker 1: That's still a pretty punishing defensive game, man, and it
16:04
Speaker 1: was very satisfying for Duke. I told you that I
16:06
Speaker 1: thought they would be focused on that game, which is
16:09
Speaker 1: why I faded. Part of the reason why I faded
16:11
Speaker 1: Duke against Pitt, and Pitt did get him under that
16:14
Speaker 1: number barely. The pitch should have had an easier time
16:17
Speaker 1: covering that number. It was a pretty low scoring game
16:20
Speaker 1: and Pitt was covering almost that entire game.
16:24
Speaker 2: And did cover.
16:25
Speaker 1: But I thought Duke would have their eye on Clemson
16:28
Speaker 1: because Clemson was the one ACC team last year that
16:32
Speaker 1: only played Duke once and beat Duke. So Duke never
16:35
Speaker 1: got a chance at revenge against Clemson last year, and
16:37
Speaker 1: now they got it. They got the revenge against Clemson,
16:40
Speaker 1: they beat a ranked team. Really good win for Duke.
16:43
Speaker 1: Now they play Syracuse and up next, they got this
16:46
Speaker 1: huge game against Michigan.
16:48
Speaker 2: Man, they got an out of conference game.
16:49
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a TV game in the Edward Jones
16:52
Speaker 1: Capitol Showcase, and you know that people are gonna be
16:55
Speaker 1: hailing this as like a potential Final.
16:57
Speaker 2: Four preview, potential champion shit preview.
17:01
Speaker 1: However, this is gonna be advertised, it's gonna be a
17:03
Speaker 1: huge game. So there is definitely the chance the Duke
17:07
Speaker 1: starts looking ahead, and if Duke has the lead towards
17:10
Speaker 1: the end of this game, there is definitely backdoor potential
17:13
Speaker 1: in this one where Duke might just start looking ahead
17:16
Speaker 1: and just pack it in a little bit or early
17:18
Speaker 1: in this game.
17:18
Speaker 2: You know, like say.
17:19
Speaker 1: Duke is up twenty points late in this game, they
17:22
Speaker 1: might take their foot off the gas and Syracuse might
17:25
Speaker 1: make a little bit of a late run and cover
17:27
Speaker 1: the game that way. So we have that potential going
17:30
Speaker 1: on in this game too. But just in general, to me,
17:34
Speaker 1: it looks like a game where Duke's just want gonna
17:37
Speaker 1: want to get in, get out. It's a sandwich spot
17:39
Speaker 1: between two huge games against ranked teams. I think Duke
17:43
Speaker 1: just might want to get in, get out, not expend
17:45
Speaker 1: a ton of energy here. They don't have to blow
17:47
Speaker 1: Syracuse out. They just got to get in, get the win.
17:51
Speaker 1: As I say, with these games and these massive spreads,
17:53
Speaker 1: they can win the game by double digits and not cover.
17:56
Speaker 1: So we're gonna take the points with Syracuse man, and
17:59
Speaker 1: that is my.
17:59
Speaker 2: Only play of the day. All right.
18:04
Speaker 1: The rest of these games here, we do have a
18:07
Speaker 1: Wagner and Long Island is kind of a quick rematch,
18:10
Speaker 1: so I do kind of like those quick rematches and
18:12
Speaker 1: kind of look towards zigzag type of spots here. Long
18:15
Speaker 1: Island is the top team in the Northeast Conference. They
18:18
Speaker 1: did beat Wagner two games ago on the road, so
18:21
Speaker 1: sometimes I do like to look at that road team
18:24
Speaker 1: in the second meeting, and this is a quick road
18:26
Speaker 1: reversal revenge spot for Wagner, So Wagner, I do expect
18:30
Speaker 1: them to show up in this one. Long Island kind
18:34
Speaker 1: of a trickier spot for them because they hadn't lost
18:36
Speaker 1: for quite a while. They'd won six or seven games
18:38
Speaker 1: in a row whatever this was. Finally took a loss
18:41
Speaker 1: to New Haven, which was a revenge game for New Haven.
18:44
Speaker 2: By the way, now when a.
18:47
Speaker 1: Team loses a long winstrem sometimes that will hang them
18:50
Speaker 1: over into the next game.
18:50
Speaker 2: So there are definitely some things that support Wagner here.
18:53
Speaker 1: The things that support Long Island would be there coming
18:56
Speaker 1: off a pretty ugly loss to an inferior team, and
19:00
Speaker 1: I presume they were a road favorite in this one.
19:02
Speaker 1: Long Island probably was, yeah, six and a half, So
19:05
Speaker 1: when a team loses as a favorite like that, sometimes
19:08
Speaker 1: they will bounce back from that. But also the game
19:10
Speaker 1: against Wagner, the Long Island play was actually a lot
19:13
Speaker 1: closer than it looks on the scoreboards, so they actually
19:16
Speaker 1: might take Wagner a little bit more seriously. And Long
19:18
Speaker 1: Island was a terror was terrible shooting in this game.
19:22
Speaker 1: As I pointed out before, they only had one three
19:25
Speaker 1: pointer in the game, which, even for a team that
19:27
Speaker 1: doesn't take that many threes one is just ridiculous. So
19:31
Speaker 1: there is maybe a little bit of room for regression
19:33
Speaker 1: positive regression in that respect for Long Island. But Wagner
19:37
Speaker 1: gave Long Island a game in that one, so Long
19:40
Speaker 1: Island might take them seriously for that reason. So I
19:42
Speaker 1: don't want anything to do with the game. Really, there
19:45
Speaker 1: are conflicting factors in this game. Long Island's gone up
19:48
Speaker 1: for a ten point favorites to a ten and a
19:49
Speaker 1: half point favorite. I kind of still lean towards the
19:53
Speaker 1: quick road revenge angle and taking the points here and
19:55
Speaker 1: laying a lot of points like that in this conference
19:58
Speaker 1: is usually not the greatest site. It's a low total
20:01
Speaker 1: again in this one at one thirty seven, so covering
20:05
Speaker 1: double digits is a pretty big ask in a game
20:07
Speaker 1: like that. My Lena starts taking the points, but my
20:10
Speaker 1: opinion and that one is.
20:11
Speaker 2: Not strong all right.
20:17
Speaker 1: Morgan State and NC Central is I guess interesting in
20:20
Speaker 1: the MIAC because these are two of it's top three
20:23
Speaker 1: teams in the conference standing wise. NC Central, I think
20:28
Speaker 1: it's between them and Howard for the best team in
20:30
Speaker 1: this conference.
20:30
Speaker 2: I think Morgan State is.
20:33
Speaker 1: I don't know if I want to say fraudulent, but
20:35
Speaker 1: I think Morgan State is not as good as their
20:37
Speaker 1: record looks now. NC Central did already go into Morgan
20:40
Speaker 1: State and beat them on the road, though, uh so
20:43
Speaker 1: there is a little bit of a road reversal revenge
20:46
Speaker 1: angle here for Morgan State. But I don't think NC
20:49
Speaker 1: Central's gonna overlook this game because they just had an
20:51
Speaker 1: atrocious loss at home to.
20:53
Speaker 2: Copp And State.
20:54
Speaker 1: Copp And State is awful, like a bottom ten team.
20:57
Speaker 1: Uh even that might even be putting it my I
21:00
Speaker 1: don't know where ken Bomb has them exactly, but they're
21:02
Speaker 1: really really bad. Oh they're the second worst team in
21:05
Speaker 1: all of Division one, only better than Mississippi Valley State.
21:10
Speaker 1: So there you go, horrible, horrible team NC Central. I
21:14
Speaker 1: think we're double digit favorites in that game and lost
21:17
Speaker 1: that game, and I like double digit favorites to bounce
21:20
Speaker 1: back off of an atrocious loss like that, So I
21:23
Speaker 1: don't really think ans C Central's gonna overlook this thing.
21:25
Speaker 1: And Morgan State's ahead of them in the standings too,
21:28
Speaker 1: so they shouldn't overlook them. And Morgan State, again, they're
21:32
Speaker 1: not as good as the record looks. They're coming up
21:34
Speaker 1: a win over Maryland Eastern Shore or whatever. Uh, Maryland
21:37
Speaker 1: Eastern Shore was near the top of this conference early
21:40
Speaker 1: in conference play, but they're not actually very good. Six
21:44
Speaker 1: wins in a row for Morgan State, and again I
21:47
Speaker 1: think it's a bit of an outlier. One of them
21:48
Speaker 1: was against a non Division one team. They had a
21:51
Speaker 1: two three excuse me, one point wins on the road
21:55
Speaker 1: during that stretch, so you know, they're getting a little
21:57
Speaker 1: bit lucky and winning a bunch of toss up games there,
22:00
Speaker 1: like it was very very easy. It would have been
22:03
Speaker 1: very easy for them to lose one or two of
22:04
Speaker 1: those games, and then they beat horrendous cop in State
22:09
Speaker 1: prior to that Maryland eestern Shore game, and now they've
22:11
Speaker 1: had a postponement, and that postponed game might actually hurt
22:15
Speaker 1: them because when you're winning games, you want to just
22:17
Speaker 1: keep playing, man, you do not want to have extra
22:19
Speaker 1: time off.
22:20
Speaker 2: So I would have to lean to NC Central in
22:22
Speaker 2: this one.
22:24
Speaker 1: They've dropped from a five point favorite to a three
22:25
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. I don't agree with that move,
22:28
Speaker 1: and this game does have a bit of a higher
22:30
Speaker 1: total for a conference like this in the one fifties,
22:33
Speaker 1: I would look towards laying it with NC Central in
22:35
Speaker 1: that one. Jeff, what's up man, You're like Jackson State.
22:41
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I will talk about that game, I guess
22:43
Speaker 1: because oh it's I'll talk about it right now because
22:46
Speaker 1: it is a well, actually I'll talk about Alabama State first,
22:50
Speaker 1: but this game, yeah, it's it's a TV game for
22:52
Speaker 1: whatever reason. Jackson State is probably because Bethune Cookman is
22:57
Speaker 1: actually the best team in the swack Jackson's it's not
23:00
Speaker 1: awful Mississippi at least they're not awful for that conference.
23:04
Speaker 1: Mississippi Valley State. As we know they're the worst team
23:07
Speaker 1: in Division one, but I would have to lean to
23:09
Speaker 1: them in this game against Alabama State. Alabama State won
23:14
Speaker 1: this conference last year the Swack. They're not as good
23:16
Speaker 1: this year. They did just beat Arkansas pine Bluff, who
23:19
Speaker 1: is tied in second place in the conference right now,
23:22
Speaker 1: so that was a pretty good win for Alabama State.
23:24
Speaker 1: Even I don't think pine Bluff I think they're pine bluffing.
23:27
Speaker 2: I don't think they're as good as their record looks.
23:29
Speaker 1: But Alabama State does have the actual best team in
23:32
Speaker 1: the conference on deck Bethune Cookman, who are in first
23:35
Speaker 1: place as well. I think Bethune Cookman and Southern are
23:38
Speaker 1: the two best teams. And oh yeah, Alabama State played
23:41
Speaker 1: Southern to within one point on the road prior to.
23:44
Speaker 2: That game against Pine Bluff.
23:45
Speaker 1: They could look right past the worst team in Division
23:48
Speaker 1: one here man Mississippi Valley State. They already beat them
23:51
Speaker 1: by twenty points on the road. They got Bethune Cookman
23:54
Speaker 1: on deck, so as ugly as it is, I would
23:57
Speaker 1: be looking towards Mississippi Valley State. Plus the point, I
24:00
Speaker 1: think they might have covered their last game Missipi Valley State.
24:04
Speaker 2: They only had a seven point loss in their last game.
24:06
Speaker 1: We see fifty to fifty on the tickets, fifty one
24:08
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Alabama State. But those are
24:11
Speaker 1: percentages that you really can't read much into because they're
24:14
Speaker 1: so close to the fifty percent range. I don't think
24:16
Speaker 1: you can really gather much from that Alabama State down
24:20
Speaker 1: from fifteen to fourteen.
24:21
Speaker 2: And a half here.
24:22
Speaker 1: I would take the points in that one, but man,
24:24
Speaker 1: it is ugly. Espnu here, Jeff, your game here, Jackson
24:30
Speaker 1: State against Bethune Cookman.
24:31
Speaker 2: Jackson State.
24:33
Speaker 1: They're the team that I've talked about the last two
24:35
Speaker 1: years where they face an extreme gauntlet in out of
24:38
Speaker 1: conference play. So two years in a row Jackson State
24:41
Speaker 1: like lost their first like ten to eleven games whatever,
24:44
Speaker 1: because they're playing all these really good teams out of conference.
24:47
Speaker 1: But at battle test, you, man, and then you start
24:49
Speaker 1: playing better during conference play, and that's what they've done
24:53
Speaker 1: again this year. They're not as good as Bethune Cookman,
24:55
Speaker 1: though Bethune Cookman is coming off a loss. Now, one
25:00
Speaker 1: thing that you will like, Jeff will like one thing
25:04
Speaker 1: that does point you towards Jackson State here, Well, there
25:07
Speaker 1: are two things. One is that Beethune Cookman just lost
25:10
Speaker 1: along win streak. They had an eight game win streak.
25:13
Speaker 1: Losing win streak like that can definitely hang you over,
25:17
Speaker 1: and that's what they did. They lost to Alcorn State.
25:21
Speaker 1: But I will have some concerns about that because Bethune
25:24
Speaker 1: Cookman was a big favorite in this one. They're eight
25:27
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites, and you know, a lot
25:29
Speaker 1: of times I will like a team. If they lose
25:31
Speaker 1: as a big favorite, that's pretty embarrassing and a lot
25:34
Speaker 1: of times you will get focus out of them in
25:36
Speaker 1: the next game. So that is one concern that I
25:39
Speaker 1: would have with fading Pethune Cookman.
25:41
Speaker 2: But yes, they are coming.
25:41
Speaker 1: Off ay they lost along win streak, and yes, that
25:46
Speaker 1: can definitely hang you over. And they already beat Jackson's
25:49
Speaker 1: State in a totally embarrassing way. They beat them eighty
25:52
Speaker 1: five to forty eight at Bethune Cookman beat them by
25:55
Speaker 1: almost forty points. So because of that, yeah, they might
25:59
Speaker 1: overlook Jackson State for that reason and not take them
26:03
Speaker 1: as seriously. Jackson State comes into this game beating Florida
26:07
Speaker 1: A and M and staying at home. Not a big
26:09
Speaker 1: deal there with that win season sweep over a very
26:12
Speaker 1: mediocre Florida A and M team in this conference. I
26:16
Speaker 1: think Jackson State will have their site set on this.
26:18
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna disagree with Jackson State in this one.
26:20
Speaker 1: I will agree, but this one's not on my card.
26:24
Speaker 1: It looks like the market read right now does agree
26:28
Speaker 1: with this one. Bethune Cookman down from six to five,
26:31
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty on the tickets, eighty four percent of
26:33
Speaker 1: the cash on Jackson State. Part of this is also
26:37
Speaker 1: that I think if the public is looking at this
26:38
Speaker 1: game because all they want to play a TV game,
26:41
Speaker 1: Jackson State's out of conference record looks really, really miserable,
26:45
Speaker 1: So the public is probably only gonna want to out
26:46
Speaker 1: side with Bathune Cookman here. But like I said, Jackson State,
26:50
Speaker 1: They're out of conference schedule was insane. They played Illinois, Louisville, Auburn, Arkansas.
26:56
Speaker 1: Winthrop is really good in the Big South. They played
26:58
Speaker 1: Houston in there. Northwestern is not as bad as they look.
27:02
Speaker 1: TCU is just a real roller coaster of a team
27:05
Speaker 1: that could beat any of the TCU can beat the
27:08
Speaker 1: best teams in college basketball. Man, So I kind of
27:11
Speaker 1: want them to make the tournament just because they sort
27:14
Speaker 1: of have a giant killer mentality, even though they also
27:17
Speaker 1: lose to terrible teams. But yeah, Jackson State had a
27:21
Speaker 1: really difficult out of conference schedule, is what my point
27:23
Speaker 1: is there. Butthune Cookman's best player, Doc Bradley, might be
27:28
Speaker 1: out again, all right, that's good to know. Well, the
27:31
Speaker 1: problem is if it's like his second game out. I
27:33
Speaker 1: don't know how many games he's been out. But you know,
27:36
Speaker 1: I talk about the injured player theory. The first game
27:38
Speaker 1: where your star player is out, you usually play a
27:41
Speaker 1: lot like usually play with a lot of effort to
27:44
Speaker 1: compensate for that. But then in that second game, if
27:46
Speaker 1: you did do well in that first game, a lot
27:48
Speaker 1: of times you won't play as well in that next game.
27:52
Speaker 2: So I don't know if they're in that spot or not.
27:54
Speaker 1: But but Thune Cookwan didn't play well in their last game,
27:56
Speaker 1: and that's really that's the reservation that I have with
27:59
Speaker 1: Jackson eight years that I don't like fading the better
28:03
Speaker 1: team when they're off a really ugly loss. And that's
28:05
Speaker 1: what happened to Bethune Cookman. So that's like everything else
28:10
Speaker 1: would kind of have have me looking towards Jackson State,
28:13
Speaker 1: though you know, the revenge angle et cetera. But I
28:16
Speaker 1: worry if the dude Cookman was rolling into this game,
28:19
Speaker 1: I would like it more. But I worry about well,
28:24
Speaker 1: I don't know, because they did lose along wind streaks.
28:26
Speaker 2: I don't know.
28:27
Speaker 1: Sometimes that will hang you over as well. Like I said,
28:29
Speaker 1: I don't know that game. Yeah, I went back and
28:31
Speaker 1: forth on it. I'll agree with you on that one
28:33
Speaker 1: with Jackson State, but I have, you know, my worries
28:37
Speaker 1: about it where you could make the argument it's a
28:40
Speaker 1: bounce back spot for Bethune Cookman. All right, what other
28:46
Speaker 1: games are gonna talk about here? Coppin State, of course,
28:48
Speaker 1: like I mentioned, they just pulled off an absurd upset
28:51
Speaker 1: of NC Central as double digit underdogs on the road,
28:55
Speaker 1: So you know, i'd be looking to fade them coming
28:57
Speaker 1: off of.
28:57
Speaker 2: Performance like that.
28:58
Speaker 1: They did lose at home, this South Carolina State team
29:01
Speaker 1: they're playing here now, but that was such a ridiculous
29:04
Speaker 1: win for Coppon State, a team like them that's going
29:07
Speaker 1: absolutely nowhere this year.
29:08
Speaker 2: That's like your win of the season, that type of thing.
29:11
Speaker 1: So even though yeah, they might ideally try to get
29:13
Speaker 1: up for a team that beat them on their own floor,
29:16
Speaker 1: everybody beats Coppon State or on their own floor. Man,
29:19
Speaker 1: South Carolina State is a bad team in their own right.
29:22
Speaker 2: They're just better than Coppon State, but.
29:24
Speaker 1: Four and a half points, I would probably have to
29:27
Speaker 1: lay it with South Carolina State. But what I really
29:30
Speaker 1: want to lay points with a team as bad as
29:32
Speaker 1: South Carolina State.
29:33
Speaker 2: Probably not.
29:34
Speaker 1: They're not gonna be laying points like this to very
29:36
Speaker 1: many teams in Division one man at all, Like probably
29:39
Speaker 1: really the only two teams would be Coppon State and
29:43
Speaker 1: Mississippi Valley State, who hilariously are both playing today. But yeah,
29:48
Speaker 1: because Coppon State is coming up that upset, I would
29:51
Speaker 1: lay it with South Carolina State, and this one I
29:53
Speaker 1: certainly don't love it though they're a four and a
29:56
Speaker 1: half point favorite in that one. South Carolina State is
29:58
Speaker 1: I think in their last game beat Delaware State or something,
30:01
Speaker 1: which is not an impressive win. Let me see, I
30:05
Speaker 1: know they lost to Howard. Actually they got blown out
30:07
Speaker 1: by Howard. I don't know why I was thinking they
30:08
Speaker 1: beat Delaware State. That was a couple games ago. So actually,
30:12
Speaker 1: South Carolina State could be in a bounce back spot.
30:14
Speaker 1: Howard I think is actually the best team in the
30:16
Speaker 1: MEAC though, so maybe that loss isn't quite as bad
30:20
Speaker 1: as it looks. But South Carolina State is looking to
30:23
Speaker 1: bounce back from a blowout loss, so it really only
30:26
Speaker 1: makes sense to play them in this game if you're
30:28
Speaker 1: gonna play it, which I don't really recommend it at all,
30:31
Speaker 1: but yeah, seventy five percent of tickets, eighty percent of
30:34
Speaker 1: the cash on South Carolina State. I usually pretty much
30:38
Speaker 1: just completely avoid the MEAC and the SWACK Yeah, because
30:43
Speaker 1: anything could happen.
30:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, these are crazy, uh like, they're.
30:47
Speaker 1: Horrible conferences and they're just unpredictable. So I don't know,
30:51
Speaker 1: I typically avoid those two conferences, although I'll I guess
30:55
Speaker 1: I'll very occasionally jump into those conferences and have a play,
30:59
Speaker 1: But I think it would take quite a bit for
31:01
Speaker 1: me to have a play in those conferences. I think
31:04
Speaker 1: I've had plays involving teams from those conferences out of
31:08
Speaker 1: conference this year so far. Sun Belt, we have South
31:11
Speaker 1: Alabama at Marshall. This is actually a pretty good game.
31:13
Speaker 1: South Alabama is now in first place in the conference,
31:17
Speaker 1: although I still think Troy is better than they are.
31:20
Speaker 1: Don't really know about app State. I don't know where
31:22
Speaker 1: app State is coming from. But South Alabama is playing
31:24
Speaker 1: a third straight road game now. They haven't played Marshall
31:28
Speaker 1: this year.
31:28
Speaker 2: I don't believe.
31:28
Speaker 1: I think this might be the only time they play
31:30
Speaker 1: but third straight road game. Plus they just beat Arkansas
31:34
Speaker 1: State on the road and pulled off I believe an
31:36
Speaker 1: upset because it was an overtime game too. Arkansas State
31:39
Speaker 1: is good in this conference, man, I think they're one
31:42
Speaker 1: of the best teams in this conference, despite what their
31:44
Speaker 1: conference record looks like. If you look at this game,
31:47
Speaker 1: South Alabama was losing this entire game, dude. They were
31:50
Speaker 1: losing by double digits with whatever that is. Less than
31:54
Speaker 1: five minutes ago, they were down twelve points and they
31:57
Speaker 1: somehow sent the game into overtime and won. I don't
32:00
Speaker 1: know how they did that, but that type of effort
32:02
Speaker 1: takes a lot audio man. Now, even though yeah, they're
32:05
Speaker 1: playing Marshall, who's pretty good in the conference, South Alabama
32:08
Speaker 1: now having taken over first place with a win like that,
32:11
Speaker 1: to me, it looks like it's going to be a
32:13
Speaker 1: letdown spot for them, So I would have to lean
32:15
Speaker 1: to Marshall in this one. Marshall's coming up a pretty
32:18
Speaker 1: ugly loss at Georgia Southern, where they gave up over
32:22
Speaker 1: one hundred points, which.
32:24
Speaker 2: Is pretty bad. So I think Marshall should be refocused
32:28
Speaker 2: after that. Coming back home.
32:29
Speaker 1: Last time they were on their home floor, they got
32:31
Speaker 1: fairly embarrassed by Miami Ohio. I know it's Miami Ohio.
32:35
Speaker 1: I know Miami Ohio was a bit of a favorite
32:37
Speaker 1: in that one. I know Miami Ohio is undefeated, whatever.
32:41
Speaker 1: But when a team returns home and their last home
32:44
Speaker 1: game was a double digit loss like that, usually they
32:47
Speaker 1: will focus. So the only way that I could look
32:49
Speaker 1: at this game is Marshall. The money looks like it's
32:54
Speaker 1: not even agreeing with me. Marshall down from five and
32:56
Speaker 1: a half to three and a half. I don't get
32:57
Speaker 1: this move at all, or the fact that we have
33:00
Speaker 1: sixty two ticket seventy six percent of the cash on
33:02
Speaker 1: South Alabama. I don't see the argument for it at all.
33:07
Speaker 1: This is actually probably one of the better leans, to
33:09
Speaker 1: be honest, I lean to Marshall in that one. So
33:13
Speaker 1: I gave out Syracuse a play out of the game.
33:15
Speaker 1: So far, this is probably the second strongest lean man.
33:19
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie. Yeah, So I don't know. I
33:22
Speaker 1: don't understand the market behavior in that one. Lamar is
33:27
Speaker 1: at ut Rio Grande Valley. Ut Rio Grande Valley is
33:31
Speaker 1: coming off losing a long wind streak, so that's strike
33:34
Speaker 1: one against them, because you know, I like fading teams
33:37
Speaker 1: that lose wind streaks.
33:39
Speaker 2: Because they can hang them over. Just like I said
33:41
Speaker 2: with Bethune Cook was a Bathune Cookman, I think so.
33:45
Speaker 1: But Real Grande Valley here though, I mean yeah, I
33:49
Speaker 1: mean they're I think in a better fade spot because
33:52
Speaker 1: not only did they lose an eight game win streak
33:54
Speaker 1: or whatever, but they did it at home against Steven F. Austin,
33:57
Speaker 1: who is the top team in the state in the Southland.
34:01
Speaker 1: Although I still think MacNeice is the better team, I
34:03
Speaker 1: told you this spot actually set up better for Stephen
34:05
Speaker 1: of Austin because they were coming off a very bad
34:08
Speaker 1: performance against a bad team in the conference. So I
34:11
Speaker 1: think they refocused and they got the job done. But
34:14
Speaker 1: this game was pretty close. It was a big game
34:16
Speaker 1: for Real Grande Valley. The game was nearly tied. I
34:19
Speaker 1: think it was tied or no. They were down one
34:21
Speaker 1: with less than five minutes to go. They were still
34:23
Speaker 1: within two possessions in the final minutes, so Real Grande
34:27
Speaker 1: Valley had a big game, man, So I think they
34:29
Speaker 1: could be in a double hangover spot here after losing
34:32
Speaker 1: along windstreak, plus doing it against one of the best
34:35
Speaker 1: teams in the conference. If they had MacNeice on deck,
34:39
Speaker 1: I would actually jump in and fade u t Real
34:41
Speaker 1: Grande Valley here. But they only have Southeastern Louisiana next,
34:45
Speaker 1: who they did beat, but they only beat them by
34:48
Speaker 1: five at home, so maybe they will actually show up
34:50
Speaker 1: for see Law on deck. They're playing Lamar here tonight
34:55
Speaker 1: against Lamar. They already did beat Lamar on the road
34:58
Speaker 1: by double digits, so they might overlook Lamar.
35:01
Speaker 2: Man.
35:02
Speaker 1: So another part of the situation in favor of Lamar
35:06
Speaker 1: and this one.
35:07
Speaker 2: Lamar is coming up losing to Texas A and M
35:10
Speaker 2: Corpus Christie.
35:11
Speaker 1: They're one of the better teams in this conference, but
35:13
Speaker 1: double digit loss, three losses in a row. The first
35:17
Speaker 1: of those was on the road to Steven At Austin.
35:18
Speaker 1: Can't really blame Lamar for that. Lamar is not a
35:21
Speaker 1: horrible team, but you know, third road game in four games,
35:25
Speaker 1: I guess a slight concern for me here, But I
35:28
Speaker 1: would have to lean to Lamar and this one. I
35:30
Speaker 1: think this is one of the stronger opinions as well.
35:32
Speaker 1: Real Grounded Valleys at minus six here, so you're getting
35:36
Speaker 1: a lot of points with Lamar. All things considered, ken
35:40
Speaker 1: Bum's got Real Grounded Valley is a pretty underrated team though.
35:44
Speaker 1: They're an unlucky team and they're fairly good defensively, so
35:51
Speaker 1: but laying points with them like this may not be
35:53
Speaker 1: the best idea. Lamar is actually at least not horrendous defensively.
35:58
Speaker 1: They're also very unlucky unluckier according to kem Pom, and
36:02
Speaker 1: they play slow.
36:04
Speaker 2: So yeah, take all of that into consideration.
36:08
Speaker 1: I think it definitely makes sense to take the points
36:10
Speaker 1: of Lamar on that one. That one is probably close
36:13
Speaker 1: to being on my card as well. I do like
36:15
Speaker 1: that one. If you want to talk about some of
36:18
Speaker 1: these other games, I can. Tarloton State is in a
36:21
Speaker 1: double revenge spot against Abilene Christian because the Whack has
36:26
Speaker 1: these these teams playing each other for the third time.
36:31
Speaker 1: Tarlton State actually lost both games at home, I think,
36:35
Speaker 1: as well to Abilene Christian. If I'm not mistaken, no
36:38
Speaker 1: one was a home. One was on the road, my mistake.
36:40
Speaker 1: But they literally just lost them in the previous game
36:43
Speaker 1: by double digits on the roads. You could make the
36:46
Speaker 1: argument there's a bit of a zigzag component to this,
36:48
Speaker 1: where Tarleton State should make the adjustments off of that
36:51
Speaker 1: and fix some things that went wrong. But if you
36:54
Speaker 1: look at this game, it wasn't really a misleading result necessarily.
36:59
Speaker 1: I mean Tarleton State, it looks like the stats are
37:01
Speaker 1: pretty close shooting wise, and then you see Abilene Christian
37:04
Speaker 1: had way more free throw attempts and they made a
37:07
Speaker 1: much higher percentage of them, So that is an outlier
37:10
Speaker 1: that basically it's one of the main reasons why Abline
37:14
Speaker 1: Christian won the game. But Ebilely Christian dominated the rebounds
37:18
Speaker 1: in this game, so that would be a concern with
37:20
Speaker 1: looking towards Tarlaton State here, like they just might not
37:23
Speaker 1: have the paint presence to be able to beat Abilene Christian,
37:28
Speaker 1: and Abiliene Christian had a ton of turnovers in the
37:30
Speaker 1: game twenty two, So that's an outlier going in the
37:32
Speaker 1: other direction where that would tell you that Ablin Christian
37:35
Speaker 1: actually played better than it looks. So I can't really
37:38
Speaker 1: zigzag this because the stats are kind of going to
37:40
Speaker 1: both directions here on the stat sheet, So it's a
37:43
Speaker 1: stay away from me but yeah, it is a quick
37:46
Speaker 1: zigzag spot. It is a double revenge spot. I would
37:49
Speaker 1: probably still lean to Tarleton in that one, although they
37:51
Speaker 1: have dropped from a two and a half point favorite
37:53
Speaker 1: to one and a half point favorite. That is still
37:56
Speaker 1: probably the way I would lean in that game, though,
37:59
Speaker 1: And you know, I don't think the public is really
38:01
Speaker 1: gonna even be looking at this game. Both teams have
38:04
Speaker 1: similar records, so it's not really gonna be a thing
38:05
Speaker 1: where they're gonna look, you know, look at this game
38:10
Speaker 1: and think one thing or the other. Florida A and
38:13
Speaker 1: M is at Alcord State. I did point out Alcord
38:15
Speaker 1: State just got that nice upset Winterver of Bethune Cookman,
38:19
Speaker 1: so possible they're hungover coming off of that. They did
38:22
Speaker 1: lose at Florida A and M already though, so they
38:25
Speaker 1: might still show up for this because it's a little
38:29
Speaker 1: bit of a revenge spot there. But I do think
38:31
Speaker 1: they're kind of in a letdown spot here now for
38:33
Speaker 1: Florida A and M though, because they already beat Alcorn.
38:37
Speaker 1: They might overlook Alcorn for that reason, and that's kind
38:39
Speaker 1: of the problem. But Florida A and M is coming
38:41
Speaker 1: off a twenty point loss as well to Jackson State.
38:44
Speaker 1: So maybe Florida A and M will show up a
38:47
Speaker 1: little bit better in this one, and that is probably
38:49
Speaker 1: the way I would have to lean here. Al Corn
38:51
Speaker 1: fliped from one and a half point favorite one and
38:53
Speaker 1: a half point dog excuse me, to a one point favorite,
38:57
Speaker 1: So we did see a favorite flip on that, but
38:58
Speaker 1: I would kind of disagree with it. I think just
39:01
Speaker 1: primarily they're gonna letdown Spot, so I probably fade them there,
39:07
Speaker 1: all right. I don't think I have too much else
39:08
Speaker 1: to say about the rest of those games. We do
39:11
Speaker 1: have a CBS Sports Network game Drexel and Stonybrook in
39:14
Speaker 1: the Colonial at eight pm. This is a TV game,
39:19
Speaker 1: not a good TV game, but a TV game. Drexel
39:23
Speaker 1: beat stony Brook at home earlier this year and they
39:25
Speaker 1: held them to thirty seven points, so you know, there
39:29
Speaker 1: could be a revenge aspect of this, or maybe Drexel
39:32
Speaker 1: just won't take Stonybrook seriously. That was before stony Brook
39:36
Speaker 1: went on that crazy like five game win streak or whatever, though,
39:40
Speaker 1: But fifty six to thirty seven, that is man, that
39:44
Speaker 1: is a hideous game for one thing. But you get
39:47
Speaker 1: held to thirty seven points, I think you're gonna show
39:49
Speaker 1: up with a better offensive effort the next time you
39:52
Speaker 1: play that team. Drexel is coming up a pretty ugly loss,
39:55
Speaker 1: though they just lost at home by twenty points to Mond,
39:58
Speaker 1: method they were coming up road upset. I believe of
40:01
Speaker 1: elon the game before that, so maybe there was some
40:04
Speaker 1: letdown component there. And they'd already beaten Monmouth on the
40:06
Speaker 1: road the first time, so I think I did give
40:09
Speaker 1: out a lean on Monmouth in that game because there
40:11
Speaker 1: was a road revenge angle there as well. Sony Brook
40:17
Speaker 1: probably is gonna show up though, because of the embarrassing
40:19
Speaker 1: performance they had the first time against Drexel, and they're
40:23
Speaker 1: also coming off a loss bye double digits at thousand,
40:27
Speaker 1: which is a little bit more of an acceptable loss
40:29
Speaker 1: thousands not really that bad.
40:33
Speaker 2: So I would probably have.
40:34
Speaker 1: To lean to Stonybrook in this one when the money's
40:36
Speaker 1: coming back in on Drexel.
40:38
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't really agree with that.
40:39
Speaker 1: I mean, if Sony Brook had that disgustingly bad performance
40:43
Speaker 1: the first time at Drexel, you gotta think they're gonna
40:45
Speaker 1: be the team and has some adjustments to make throughout
40:48
Speaker 1: from three and a half.
40:49
Speaker 2: To four here.
40:51
Speaker 1: Sixty four percent of the tickets are on them, though
40:53
Speaker 1: in sixty three percent of the cash on Drexel, so
40:55
Speaker 1: the money is indicating on Drexel. I don't really agree
40:59
Speaker 1: with than in that one, but it's not a game
41:02
Speaker 1: that I would really consider touching. The totals at won
41:05
Speaker 1: thirty three and a half. We saw, of course, the
41:07
Speaker 1: total in the previous game didn't even reach one hundred,
41:11
Speaker 1: so but that was just a major outlier. Man Like,
41:15
Speaker 1: I think I would probably lean over in this game
41:17
Speaker 1: because people are gonna look at that previous game and
41:20
Speaker 1: see how absolutely pitiful it was and think, oh my god,
41:23
Speaker 1: that game landed, you know, more than thirty points lower than.
41:27
Speaker 2: What this number is.
41:28
Speaker 1: Well, that's just you know, it was just a complete
41:31
Speaker 1: outlier of a game though, So I don't think you
41:34
Speaker 1: really put much weight into that.
41:35
Speaker 2: What was the total in this game.
41:36
Speaker 1: Totals won thirty two and a half, and now it's
41:38
Speaker 1: basically the same in this game. So the oddsmakers are
41:41
Speaker 1: telling you not to be fooled by this. These teams
41:44
Speaker 1: shot horribly in this game too, well, sony Brook did.
41:48
Speaker 1: Sony Brook was absolutely unbelievably bad.
41:51
Speaker 2: In this game.
41:51
Speaker 1: Twenty percent from from the field in that game that
41:54
Speaker 1: is so bad.
41:57
Speaker 2: Drexel wasn't exactly great.
41:59
Speaker 1: Thirty nine OI did hit some threes in the game,
42:03
Speaker 1: but the teams also barely went to the free throw
42:05
Speaker 1: line at all in that game, so you might see
42:07
Speaker 1: some regression towards regularity in this game. So I think
42:12
Speaker 1: it over kind of makes sense in that game too.
42:14
Speaker 1: Even though usually I want to play low score, low totals,
42:17
Speaker 1: under that game, I would not uh fifty to fifty
42:21
Speaker 1: on the tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on
42:23
Speaker 1: the over. I'm not a totals guy though, except in baseball,
42:26
Speaker 1: But you know, that's the way that I would look
42:29
Speaker 1: at that game though. Stephen of Austin at Texas A
42:33
Speaker 1: and M. Corpus Christie is not a terrible game. In
42:35
Speaker 1: the Southland in the late Slate here, Steven of Austin
42:39
Speaker 1: is on a long, long win streak here. They've only
42:41
Speaker 1: lost one game in conference.
42:43
Speaker 2: Which was a.
42:44
Speaker 1: Home game to Macneese, and they're one and one against
42:47
Speaker 1: MacNeice with the road team winning both games, I believe,
42:50
Speaker 1: or no way they won at home against MacNeice, right, yeah,
42:53
Speaker 1: the home team won both games, they think, yeah, yeah, correct, Yes,
42:56
Speaker 1: my mistake. Steeman of Austin is coming off the battle
43:00
Speaker 1: against Rio Grande Valley ut Rio Grande Valley tough game man,
43:06
Speaker 1: for sure, and now they're playing another fairly competitive opponent here,
43:10
Speaker 1: Texas A and MCC, and they already beat them at home.
43:12
Speaker 1: They only beat them by nine though.
43:15
Speaker 2: So but Stephen F.
43:16
Speaker 1: Austin actually covered that number. They were six and a
43:18
Speaker 1: half point favorites. Now they're actually five and a half
43:21
Speaker 1: point road favorites here, So it seems like the.
43:23
Speaker 2: Line might be a little high. Man.
43:25
Speaker 1: I know, you have to adjust a little bit from
43:27
Speaker 1: what Stephen NEV Austin has done since then. They've won
43:29
Speaker 1: almost every game since since. You do have to adjust
43:32
Speaker 1: them up in your power ratings a bit. But this
43:34
Speaker 1: line almost being where it was when they were at
43:36
Speaker 1: home does make it seem like it's a bit high.
43:38
Speaker 1: Playing two pretty competitive road games in a row here,
43:42
Speaker 1: I would probably have to lean to A and MCC
43:45
Speaker 1: in this one. Man an MCC just right of the ship.
43:48
Speaker 1: With a win over Lamar, they have to play ce
43:50
Speaker 1: and of Austin and MacNeice back to back, which is
43:53
Speaker 1: not easy for them. They should be angry at the
43:57
Speaker 1: schedule makers for that, but I think those up in
44:00
Speaker 1: this one. I would take the points with A and
44:03
Speaker 1: mcc and this one if I was gonna do anything
44:05
Speaker 1: with it. Semen of Austin's up from four and a
44:07
Speaker 1: half to six now here, seventy eight percent of tickets,
44:10
Speaker 1: only sixty two percent of the cash on them, So
44:12
Speaker 1: the public is all over Semen of Austin in that
44:15
Speaker 1: one for the most part. If they're gonna be playing
44:17
Speaker 1: that game, and there are few games once again into
44:19
Speaker 1: the later slates.
44:20
Speaker 2: So they might.
44:23
Speaker 1: But yeah, those are my thoughts on that one. And
44:24
Speaker 1: then the other huge game. The biggest game of the
44:27
Speaker 1: day is this ESPN game at nine pm. This is
44:30
Speaker 1: a really good game, man, number three Houston at number
44:33
Speaker 1: five Iowa State. This is a crazy game, very good game.
44:37
Speaker 1: Both these teams are elite teams. Man, there's no no
44:41
Speaker 1: way to state it otherwise, ken bumas Houston is the
44:44
Speaker 1: fourth best team and Iowa State seventh, so very very
44:48
Speaker 1: close to what the rankings makers have.
44:51
Speaker 2: These are both.
44:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're both completely legit teams. They're both better on
44:56
Speaker 1: defense and offense. Houston, of course, we know they play
45:00
Speaker 1: really slow. Iowa State is slightly slow tempo as well.
45:05
Speaker 2: So an under.
45:06
Speaker 1: I wouldn't disagree with an under in a game like
45:09
Speaker 1: this where I think it's gonna be more of a
45:10
Speaker 1: heavyweight type of fight. The numbers already dropped a bit
45:13
Speaker 1: from one thirty six and a half to one thirty five,
45:15
Speaker 1: though eighty one percent of tickets in ninety seven percent
45:18
Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. But I'd be leaning
45:21
Speaker 1: under in this one because again, both teams are better
45:23
Speaker 1: on deffense than offense. Looks like it's gonna be kind
45:26
Speaker 1: of a heavyweight type of fight as far as the
45:29
Speaker 1: side is concerned, I would probably have to lean to
45:32
Speaker 1: Houston because Iowa State is coming off a great game
45:35
Speaker 1: where they beat Kansas two days ago.
45:37
Speaker 2: That was a huge win for Iowa State.
45:39
Speaker 1: But remember they caught Kansas off of that great win
45:41
Speaker 1: that they had against Arizona, and you know, I gave
45:44
Speaker 1: out Iowa State. That was the first game that we
45:47
Speaker 1: had on the card for me on Saturday, and that
45:49
Speaker 1: was a win.
45:51
Speaker 2: To kick off our two and two college basketball.
45:54
Speaker 1: Day, which I'm not happy about obviously, but we got
45:56
Speaker 1: a win with Iowa State, so it was a good
45:59
Speaker 1: spot to play them, very very satisfying win. Now they're
46:03
Speaker 1: not gonna overlook Houston, but Houston is a step up
46:06
Speaker 1: from even Kansas. Man, even though Kansas is pretty good,
46:09
Speaker 1: kem BOM's got Kansas fifteenth. Kansas is not that good offensively.
46:13
Speaker 1: Houston is actually better on both sides of the ball
46:16
Speaker 1: than Kansas, but they're way better offensively too. Even though
46:19
Speaker 1: Houston they've had their struggles offensively, but.
46:23
Speaker 2: They're still pretty good on offense right now.
46:25
Speaker 1: Man twelfth on offensive grade to kempom fifth and defense
46:29
Speaker 1: Iowa State seventeenth and sixth, respectively. Houston's coming up a
46:33
Speaker 1: much easier game, or they just got in, got out
46:36
Speaker 1: against Kansas State, didn't come close to covering.
46:39
Speaker 2: They won by fourteen.
46:40
Speaker 1: I think they were, yeah, twenty, I was gonna say
46:42
Speaker 1: they were twenty plus point favorites.
46:43
Speaker 2: In this one. They didn't need to.
46:46
Speaker 1: It was exactly what I said, man, that they were
46:48
Speaker 1: gonna just get in, not putting a full effort in
46:50
Speaker 1: that one, win by double digits and not cover. So
46:53
Speaker 1: that's exactly what I said. That is exactly what happened.
46:57
Speaker 1: But Houston does play slow as well, So I thought
47:00
Speaker 1: I thought they were gonna be looking ahead to this one.
47:02
Speaker 1: Now I guess the one dangerous aspect of this for Houston,
47:06
Speaker 1: other than the fact that they're having a step up
47:08
Speaker 1: and below they're too they're having a step up in class.
47:10
Speaker 1: Iowa State's gonna be the best team they face in
47:13
Speaker 1: conference play, so Houston does not face the team as
47:16
Speaker 1: good as Iowa State for quite a while here. Man,
47:19
Speaker 1: the best team they face in conference play is Texas Tech.
47:22
Speaker 1: Probably they face BYU two and BYU, by the way,
47:25
Speaker 1: just lost one of their best players to injury. What's
47:29
Speaker 1: I forget his name? Saunders?
47:31
Speaker 2: Is that his name? The white dude with the blonde,
47:33
Speaker 2: curly hair. He's out for the seasons. That's a huge.
47:36
Speaker 1: Blow to BYU, So we'll see how that winds up
47:39
Speaker 1: affecting them. But that's that sucks for BYU. But yeah,
47:43
Speaker 1: Texas Tech is at least better than BYU. There's sixteenth
47:46
Speaker 1: according to ken Bum, so they're not a bad team.
47:49
Speaker 1: Houston went one and one against Texas Tech. But yeah,
47:51
Speaker 1: the dangerous things are Houston has to step up in
47:53
Speaker 1: class to play.
47:55
Speaker 2: Iowa State here and.
47:58
Speaker 1: Houston is playing a third road game in four games.
48:01
Speaker 1: Although they did win both other road games, they were
48:04
Speaker 1: in elevation, though one of them was against BYU. Good
48:07
Speaker 1: win for Uston against BYU. BYU a dangerous team, but.
48:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean those road games can kind of take
48:14
Speaker 2: their toll a little bit. But it is an ESPN game.
48:16
Speaker 2: You know both teams will get up for it.
48:18
Speaker 1: I'll still have a slight lean to Houston and this one,
48:20
Speaker 1: even though they look like they're the public side seventy
48:23
Speaker 1: two percent of tickets and cash on them. Iowa States
48:25
Speaker 1: a two and a half point favorite here, but I
48:28
Speaker 1: still think because Iowa States coming up the just the
48:32
Speaker 1: much much better looking win, the much much better game,
48:36
Speaker 1: I would have to lean against them a little bit there.
48:38
Speaker 2: But I don't really love the side in that game
48:40
Speaker 2: at all.
48:40
Speaker 1: It'll be probably a fun game to watch, though, but
48:44
Speaker 1: under might be my preference in that game out of anything.
48:48
Speaker 1: All right, that's gonna do it, man. We got nothing
48:50
Speaker 1: else today. It's all just college basketball today. Thanks guys
48:55
Speaker 1: for hanging out. The one play I have is Syracuse
48:57
Speaker 1: plus nineteen and a half. I don't think we're gonna
49:00
Speaker 1: see the twenty on it looks think it's actually starting
49:02
Speaker 1: to move down a little bit further, so I guess
49:06
Speaker 1: we'll just grab the nineteen and a half.
49:08
Speaker 2: That's gonna do it.
49:09
Speaker 1: Hopefully we get hopefully we get a win with another
49:12
Speaker 1: sandwich there.
49:13
Speaker 2: Duke is in a sandwich.
49:16
Speaker 1: I don't know what kind of sandwich because it's between Clemson.
49:20
Speaker 2: And Michigan, so I don't know.
49:21
Speaker 1: There's no real correlation there between what those places eat. Probably,
49:25
Speaker 1: but maybe it's a burger. They eat burgers everywhere there
49:28
Speaker 1: you go. They're in an American sandwich, American hamburger sandwich.
49:32
Speaker 2: That's gonna do it, man. Learn a tone on Twitter.
49:35
Speaker 1: You can subscribe to me there if Twitter ever comes back,
49:37
Speaker 1: because it's having major issues this morning, so I don't
49:40
Speaker 1: even know if this Twitter part of the stream is
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Speaker 1: even working, but you can subscribe to me there. Give
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Speaker 1: me some support if you want bonus Yuke content there
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49:50
Speaker 2: If you do that for the time being.
49:54
Speaker 1: Learn to tone on Instagram for the short form betting
49:56
Speaker 1: content there like subscribe to the channel here. Give me
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50:13
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50:16
Speaker 1: like you know, subscribe over there too, give me replies
50:19
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50:22
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50:26
Speaker 2: You can request stuff.
50:27
Speaker 1: Which I may or may not actually do, depending on
50:29
Speaker 1: what the song is and if it's doable, and it's
50:32
Speaker 1: easier if I already know the song, Like if I
50:34
Speaker 1: know what the song is, at least it makes it
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Speaker 1: easier and I could do it more quickly because I
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Speaker 1: don't have to keep listening to the song to figure
50:42
Speaker 1: it out.
50:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know what else there is.
50:47
Speaker 1: I might start doing yuke streams as well, man, like
50:50
Speaker 1: just jams, just hang out, talk to people.
50:52
Speaker 2: I just mess around with it.
50:54
Speaker 1: Uh, similar to what I asked but does on his
50:56
Speaker 1: show with his piano, the very Talented Spot. I forget
51:00
Speaker 1: what the name of his show is though, which I've
51:04
Speaker 1: been on a couple of times. But else I have
51:07
Speaker 1: to do a promote here, Oh, loser cast tomorrow night
51:10
Speaker 1: after a legion to skanks.
51:11
Speaker 2: You can check that out too. I have not decided
51:13
Speaker 2: on a loser but you can go check that out.
51:16
Speaker 1: That'll be tomorrow night, ten pm Eastern, the new comedy
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Speaker 1: podcast that I'm part of.
51:21
Speaker 2: That's Gonna Do It.
51:24
Speaker 1: And Lighton and I were both on the Golden Shower
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Speaker 1: Power Hour Twitter space.
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Speaker 2: Last night, which is a comedy. I don't know's it's
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Speaker 2: a hangout space, but I.
51:35
Speaker 1: Believe because of the Twitter malfunctions, the space just cut
51:38
Speaker 1: out before it was actually gonna endle that we were
51:41
Speaker 1: kind of wrapping it up at that point, but you
51:43
Speaker 1: go check that out.
51:44
Speaker 2: It was Lighton's Lighton.
51:46
Speaker 1: Was the guest, but I I kind of bombed the show.
51:49
Speaker 1: I guess you know, you know me. I don't stop talking.
51:51
Speaker 1: So but you can check that out as well on Twitter.
51:54
Speaker 1: It should be up already.
51:56
Speaker 2: That's Gonna do It. Peace for now, everybody,