Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Bye Bye Tariffs | Grain Talk February 20th, 2026

Transcript

Bye Bye Tariffs | Grain Talk February 20th, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Grain Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the grain news you need right now.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: Today is February 20th.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Jaden Houslog with me and Cade.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to be talking about the grain markets today.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: How's it going, Jaden?
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: It's going good, Mike.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: How about yourself?
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: Very good.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: We've got some interesting things to wrap up our week for the grain markets here.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: So let's dive into it.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to talk a little bit about the egg outlook forum.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to talk about wheat market because it's been a while since we got to do that, Jaden.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: And then we're going to talk about the fresh news today with the soybean market, tariff news.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_01: We'll dive into that.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: So what do you got on the egg outlook forum that came out earlier this week, Jaden?
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: It looked like we had a little bit lower corn acres than maybe what they could have, and a little bit higher soybean acres.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: What do you think?
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Kate, if you want to pull up the corn balance sheet there.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_02: So I think what's really interesting to take home there is, you know, a trend line yield of 183 now.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's kind of interesting to look at, but only 94 million acres.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_02: I was expecting something over 95, and I mean the corn market didn't really react to it at all.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_02: But you know, this just is a forecast.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_02: It's a guess, really no data to back up.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_02: But it's just interesting to see with 94 million acres of corn and a 183 yield, our ending stocks are below 2 billion bushels.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_02: So the USDA is really thinking our corn demand's going to stay really great here in the next coming years, which I think is pretty interesting to look at.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and that takes you down just a smidge on both exports, 200 million, and they got feed and residual down 200 million as well.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: So honestly, for total use being down 400 million bushels, Jaden, as long as you can basically keep acres under 95 million or very, very close to it, and near a trend line yield, we should be shrinking ending stocks year over year.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: If we'll do that, obviously, we've been hearing some crazy estimates for corn acres going into this next year.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: If you look above maybe even 100 million acres, is getting talked about.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_01: You hear a lot of uh different news from seed companies talking about how their corn sales with customers they're retaining are actually up year over year from last year, which is crazy.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna want to keep this all in mind.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna get a new fresh outlook here this week, these numbers.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that uh not quite enough to trade it.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_01: It wasn't that crazy, probably that uh it's not a real big shock to those who have been following a new crop balance sheet.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_01: Um so normally the futures market doesn't react to it too much.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, just a coincidence that last year during this report, same exact day, we're basically a year out from last year's high in the corn market that we had at 479 on December corn of 2025.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: So being just under 470 here lately on December 26 corn, very similar position compared to where we were then.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: Uh so a few things keep in mind there.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: The next time you're gonna see these major balance sheet changes is gonna be in March and the prospective plannings report.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: And uh Cade just pulled up the soybean side of the balance sheet, looks like with a little bit lower acres there.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: We probably on the corn side, we're probably gaining a few acres, aren't we, Jaden?
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: On the soybeans.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: Right, Mike.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_02: And uh the thing that sticks out to me there is the export number, 1.7 billion bushels.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_02: So the USDA is thinking behind there.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_02: That's definitely with some China business.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_02: So if we're able to get back to our old China business, what kind of what we did with them in the past, and with an increase, you know, crush demand there, ending stocks get pretty tight there, even with 85 million acres planted.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_01: About 85 million bushel increase on crush capacity.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: That's gonna be something I'm gonna be watching a lot through these first few months of the summer time frame, just to get a little bit of a sense of how much are we increasing crush demand here in the United States, because that uh export number is obviously gonna be all over the place going forward, uh, even for this crop year going into next year.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: So as long as we can keep both of those acres down a little bit, keep near trend line yields, we should be somewhat okay, Jaden, for that.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_01: So keep an eye out.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: Going to uh the end of March is the next time we really look at an official look at what the start of our balance sheet will look like.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: And remember, they're gonna basically use a trend line yield no matter what, unless we have volatile uh planting uh occurrence through the start of this next year.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: So uh all right, egg outlook for them last two days or so that they got to talk about that a little bit.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: No real market moving news, just good to remind us to look at next year's balance sheet.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: Uh grains likely still staying in a somewhat equity preservation mode without any major supply changes in the United States based on at this point, I would consider just weather.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh let's look a little bit about another chart that I found interesting this week, something that we haven't got to talk at all about.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: Basically, since I would argue you probably even started, Jaden.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: A few years ago, I felt like I talked about wheat all the time.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: And it was Russia, Ukraine, and we talked about it for a year on end, just straight.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: And here right now, it looks like we're finally getting a little bit of a rally out of this March Chicago wheat and Kansas City hard red winter wheat.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: Spring wheat is doing its best, Jaden, but we're not quite getting it.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: So on the on the board here, it looks like we're looking at uh March uh this would be May Chicago wheat.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: We've put together a very nice rally.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: We're finally getting over levels from the old fall highs, really the highest level we've traded back to since last summer.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_01: A few things that we really need to mention here.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: One, this has been driven heavily by short fund covering.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: Um we've been piling out a bunch of shorts, and they're finally getting forced to cover some of those up.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: A few of the reasons why.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_01: We're looking at a monitored drought situation from the southern United States.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_01: About half of the wheat crop for the winter wheat in the United States is experiencing some form of a drought at this time of the year, a little bit of inconvenience for them in the southern plains, and we're seeing some high winds which could damage that crop down there.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: So continue to keep an eye on that.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: We're also looking at some potential Black Sea problems.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, additional support's been coming from potential issues with specifically the Ukraine wheat crop, Jaden.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, this this wheat pattern I find very interesting.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_01: Normally, corn tries to play along with it.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_01: If wheat goes up, you know, usually corn wants to follow because it's traded as a likewise grain.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_01: Right now, we're not really seeing that, are we?
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_01: The corn market hasn't wanted to move really higher at all.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: What do you take from corn's resilience on this to not move anywhere, even though wheat is really trying its best?
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's kind of interesting.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_02: You know, wheat, you know, today up about 13 cents, and corn moves four cents.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_02: So corn is moving about a fourth of what wheat's moving, so it's kind of interesting to see.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_02: You know, old crop corn can't get out of its own way.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_02: It really struggles to find a bullish store.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_02: And and just like with the soybean, you know, we've rallied quite a bit here in the last couple weeks, and corn can't seem to muster any type of rally there, too.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: For sure.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I would argue wheat is a very nice topic to talk about right now as well, because wheat and both soybeans are probably trying to buy some acres back in spring wheat and in soybeans.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, it probably just not enough.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_01: On spring wheat, for example, if I got another 50 cents to about a buck of a rally, I would really start to talk more about like hoofta.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: That was that's gonna bail us out a little bit.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: You get spring wheat futures for next September closer to$7.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: It starts to make a lot more sense.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: You start talking about corn anywhere above 470, basically.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_01: I can start to make that work on new crop futures for guys.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: And then when I talk about soybeans here, we're still not quite there, but we're trying to buy some acres back on this rally recently.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: So as we go into next spring, just keep an eye on this wheat chart if it really wants to run on us.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: Also, if people are trying to buy up some commodities, specifically the grain markets, technically, normally they like to go to the wheat market just a little bit lower volume, especially spring wheat, and try to push that thing higher.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: So far, here it just looks like a little wee bit of short covering, Jaden.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_02: And with the global tensions that we we may experience over the weekend with just talking about Iran and the US, do you think we can we're seeing some buying from that too, Mike?
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: A little bit.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: I view the Iran situation more impacting the oil futures.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: Those have actually rose to the highest level they've had in more than six months on uh Thursday's trade yesterday.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: So I would argue that the escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran that fueled that increase.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: But technically, uh, you know, usually that helps along with the wheat market as well.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_01: Just through the Middle East and the Black Sea regions being a little bit more tension, uh, that usually pushes around the small grains, specifically wheat, uh, a little bit more, Jaden.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_02: So, Mike, do we want to move on to the Supreme Court ruling today that kind of shook up all markets today?
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, this is why most people are probably hopping on the podcast today.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you're looking at a situation where uh the U.S.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: Supreme Court has struck down Trump's global tariff program.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: So this was a pretty big news that came out this morning about nine o'clock Central Time.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: And I think uh you sent Cade there a chart showing just a minute chart of the soybean market there.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: So you can see on the left side of the screen that huge red bar that was right after about nine o'clock.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: Nine o'clock.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: That was released, the news that the US Supreme Court shut it down at nine o'clock.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: We traded all the way from about 1148 on March futures all the way down to 1121 there on the low for the day, Jaden.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it seemed like the soybean market right away of the initial reaction, it was really struggling how to figure out how to trade it.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_02: Like, like you said, we were up five, then we were down fifteen, and then we almost turned green, and then we were down twenty.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_02: So it really I think the soybean market was kind of confused on how to trade this thing.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I think they still are to an extent, and this is what I mean by it.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_01: We're not gonna have a very good, secure answer for a little while.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: Trump did come out this afternoon and he spoke uh about one o'clock or so our time here, and he just talks about how a lot of the things that are in place are gonna try to stay in place.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_01: He's gonna use some different sections to basically still have levies and tariffs on other countries.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: He said it's dumb, I can put embargoes on people, I can destroy countries physically, but I can't make them pay a little tariff duty.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_01: It's stupid.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_01: So he talked about that.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: But one of the things that normally is promised out of Donald Trump is an extreme mentality to win.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_01: And this is scary to the soybean market.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_01: When that news came out at one this morning, the soybean market sold off.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_01: Not because that was a bearish fundamental, but they were afraid that whatever Trump does now, since he can't do tariffs, would be more extreme.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_01: And he even talked about it in his speech today that he's like, I could put an embargo on these guys.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_01: You I could tell everyone in the United States they can't do business with China.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that's pretty darn bearish if they end up doing something like that.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_01: He didn't say that he was going to do it, but he said he could.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and the fact that he even just mentioned it through his speech, I'm surprised soybeans didn't trade a little bit more aggressively back and forth during his speech.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_01: I found that interesting.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_01: We held it like two or three cents lower almost the whole time.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: So the volatility during his speech I thought would have been way greater than what it was.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_01: Uh so I thought that was interesting.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_01: But the news of this just uncertainty is the extreme trading case.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_01: And when you have that happen, especially after you had a hundred thousand contracts of managed money longs in a couple weeks before it, you build up a decent sized long position in the soybean market.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna take some risk off the table.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna take the little buck we we made on this thing.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_01: I'm hitting the road.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: I want to wait and see what comes of this.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: So that's what we saw in a very, very big way, Jaden, today.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Mike, I think you hit the nail on the head there.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_02: Regardless of your opinion on the ruling itself, this development adds just trade uncertainty.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_02: And with the large position the funds hold in the soybean market, any threat to any US or China China trade relations could, you know, like you said, have them exit this market.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_01: For sure.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_01: A few other things worth mentioning just about the future of this.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: It's gonna be a long road.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think the in the short term it's probably gonna be pretty bumpy as Trump and this administration try to figure out what direction to go with this and what they can kind of squeak past us.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_01: Uh also, one of the things I wanted to mention today was soybean oil's been on an absolute tear, Jaden.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_01: Indonesia trade deal includes zero tariff for U.S.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_01: palm oil imports.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, U.S.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_01: egg's probably gonna benefit from that if something happens.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, a few other things this week here.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_01: Most of the export sales, they were really uneventful for the most part.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean meal sales were pretty solid.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: No real USDA sales announcements.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: So we we've been waiting for about 10 days now for any big sales to China for soybean exports, for example, but no flash sales recently.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_01: It's been very, very quiet.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_01: Um, French wheat conditions continue to slip as well.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_01: Keep an eye on that Black Sea region and some of those other European countries just on wheat, because we are seeing a little bit of pop there.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_01: So now every every little news source we get can move the needle more on that.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_01: And then USDA Cattle and Feed Report this afternoon here.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, I'm gonna get to talk about that as well.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_01: So any other final thoughts that you are thinking about this week going into uh a pretty volatile weekend potentially.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Kate, if you want to pull up that Brazil weather map, I think this is, you know, as they continue their harvest here.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_02: I think Brazil, if you look there, are gonna receive about 130% of their normal rainfall.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_02: So they're continuing to be spoon-fed with rain.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_02: So I think we're, you know, the Brazil crop's gonna be massive.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's how you can put it that way.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_02: And then the Argentina, they're still experiencing some dryness, and it looks like over the next week they're not gonna get a lot of rainfall.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_01: Argentina on the south side of that map he had up, obviously experiencing some more dry weather.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: That's important because in Argentina, their weather pattern is a little bit more important going forward, being harvest around that April-May time frame for their crops.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_01: First, Brazil, who's about a quarter harvested a little bit behind normal.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we'll continue to watch that going forward here as they've been spoon-fed some rains to kind of finish out their crop, but it's also delayed things a little bit.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_01: I know you're getting some photos and whatnot of uh some pretty long lines down to Brazil for trucks sitting at ports and waiting here.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_01: So getting to be that time of the year where we start seeing tipped over trucks on bad roads and stuck in the middle and all that fun stuff, isn't it, Jaden?
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_02: Right, Mike.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_02: And also just to add here at the end, the U.S.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_02: drought map, we are seeing some dryness in the I states, Illinois, Indiana.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, we kind of saw the same thing last year, and it didn't amount to anything just because we got an inch of rain each week in the summer.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_02: But I think that's another thing to watch here going forward.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, last fall, one of the driest falls on on record that we had through most of the Northwest Corn Belt, and looks like it's still staying pretty dry through uh through the winter here, which honestly, uh of course it's a very good time of the year to have a drought for the Midwest.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the south there, southern plains, just a little bit extreme for some of that winter wheat.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_01: But thank you for your time today.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: Continue to watch some of this volatile news through the weekend between whether it be us and Iran or other geopolitical activities going on with Taiwan potentially or China and any tariff news that may change through this because uh it's been a little bit too quiet on the tariff front.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: So it looks like we're gonna shake some things up there again.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks for having me on, Mike.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, Jaden.